Audu Ogbeh, Nigerian Agriculture Minister HARDtalk


Audu Ogbeh, Nigerian Agriculture Minister

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Welcome to HARDtalk, with me, Zeinab Badawi,

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from the Swiss resort of Davos, where my guest is one

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of the delegates of the annual World Economic Forum -

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Nigeria's Agriculture Minister, Audu Ogbeh.

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When President Buhari came to power 18 months ago, he raised hopes

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that he would reform the country.

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Instead, Nigeria is involved in its worst recession for 20 years.

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There is widespread food insecurity in the north and growing unrest.

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Why can't this oil-rich nation with plenty of farmland

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feed its own people and enjoy greater stability?

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Minister Audu Ogbeh, welcome to HARDtalk.

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Minister Audu Ogbeh, welcome to HARDtalk.

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Thank you very much for inviting me here.

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We've seen 2 million people displaced by Boko Haram

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in the north of Nigeria.

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Terrible food insecurity there now.

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The UN Humanitarian Office is warning of severe food shortages.

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Nearly half a million children face acute malnutrition and that people

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will die if aid is not given.

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Are you managing to get these people some food to eat?

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We are managing to get them some food.

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My ministry sent over 10,000 tonnes of grain,

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about four months ago.

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On a regular basis the National Emergency Management Authority sends

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anything up to half a million tonnes of grain to north-east.

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This is not to say that that's absolutely enough to feed them,

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but food is being rushed to the north-east almost

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on a weekly basis.

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And you can categorically say that people will not die

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in northern Nigeria?

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A few will die, a certain number will, because they are moving back

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to their villages now.

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It's too late...

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What does "a certain number" mean, Minister?

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You could have a few thousand probably not getting enough food,

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especially the children, in the camps.

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Because they have special kinds of food they need to eat.

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We are importing out any single time now...

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I just approved about ten shiploads, ten aircraft loads of ready to use

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food materials from Western Europe to be delivered to

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children in the camps.

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Because they can't eat the kind of food is the adult seat.

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Milk, you know, soya beans, protein enriched foods like that

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for the children to eat.

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But definitely many will go through hardship.

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But you just said that you believe that thousands,

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including many children, could die.

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Many could die, if the programmes are sustained, they went.

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If there is any halt in them, or any difficulties in the way

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of deliveries, a number will die.

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I can't be precise.

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Are you saying here, now, that you are appealing for more

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help to prevent those deaths?

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As much help as we can get, but at home we are doing

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a whole lot of work.

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I am a member of a national committee for delivering

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food to the north-east, especially because I am

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in the Ministry of agriculture, but other agencies, the Red Cross,

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the National Emergency Management Authority, organisations

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like the Dangote Group, are sending things to the north-east

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like rice and beans and yams and so on on a daily basis.

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But what you have got to do is to ensure that these people

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enjoy some stability, and that means really

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defeating Boko Haram, who have been responsible

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for many atrocities.

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We all know about the schoolgirls who were kidnapped and so on.

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President Buhari says, "We are getting the better of them."

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But the International Crisis Group says that there is still substantial

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resistance by Boko Haram.

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This is a war you cannot win in one day.

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It is not a regular war.

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If it was, the Nigerian army is capable of dealing with it.

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Number two, people must remember, when it came

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in initially, the handling - I'm not just here to criticise

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the previous government - was extremely poor.

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President Buhari came in and how to restructure the Army.

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To put them in a position to put Boko Haram on the run.

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It will not end overnight, I can assure you.

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But is the Nigerian army properly equipped to fight Boko Haram?

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Let me tell you what a security analyst based in Lagos says.

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He says, you can't send men to fight Boko Haram wearing flip-flops

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and rusty rifles with no ammunition, that is not going to work.

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He's right, isn't he?

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Well, I don't know who he is, or whether he has been

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on the waterfront.

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He is with the Pilgrims Africa security company,

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which is based in Lagos.

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How often has he been on the waterfront?

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Sometimes, commentators far-away from the front can comment and it

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makes it look like nobody is doing any work.

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But, rifles and tanks and weapons of all kinds have to be bought.

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But it's also a question of inspiring trust and confidence

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amongst people in your country about the abilities

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of the security forces.

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If that situation had not changed, some would not have been captured.

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Even the people in Borno State themselves will tell you that

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things are a lot better, they have more hope

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and more confidence.

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Well, let me tell you what happened

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in Borno State, and you know very well yourself, Minister,

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that's nearly 100 people died because the Nigerian Air Force

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accidentally hit a refugee camp in Borno State.

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A very tragic occurrence.

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It is not going to inspire trust, though, is it?

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Didn't the US Army hit Russian troops in Syria?

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Didn't they apologise for it?

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If we talk to the Americans, we'll put these things to them.

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Friendly fire, and so on.

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Things happen in warfare.

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Nobody can imagine that the Nigerian Air Force deliberately

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bombed a refugee camp.

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I didn't say that.

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I said it doesn't inspire trust and confidence in the military.

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Accidents do happen.

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We regret it, we are sad about it, it shouldn't have happened,

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but these things do happen.

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The president is mounting an enquiry.

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Why did it happen?

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Somebody has to be called to account for it.

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And will there be resignations?

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I do not know yet, it depends on the findings.

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But the fact is, it is not just Boko Haram.

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You say you are getting the better of Boko Haram and I put it

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to you that you have got armrests now from the Islamic movement,

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a Shia group in northern Nigeria, 300 people were killed

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in Kaduna State in 2016.

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We've also got in the south-east Biafra separatists.

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We all remember the terrible Biafra war in 1967-70.

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And you've got conflicts between pastoralists and farmers

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spreading across the country, leading to deaths.

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So, really, you've got so much in your hands.

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It's not just Boko Haram.

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We have a lot on our hands.

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We are working towards solving them.

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I mean, this is a country of 193 million people.

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A country hit by severe economic recession.

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And people have started reacting in different ways.

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I mean, Boko Haram was a product of a certain amount of neglect and,

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perhaps, indifference to the real issues in the economy.

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We got caught by what they called the Dutch disease.

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Oil and gas came in and local production literally halted

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in agriculture and manufacturing.

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The long-term effects of these uprisings are driven mainly by lack

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of inclusion and perhaps lack of internal productivity

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and activity in the economy.

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And you are seeing that now in the south-east with the Biafra

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separatists who was saying, "We are not treated fairly

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by the federal government."

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In May, there were 40 deaths in Onitsha,

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Amnesty International say, you know, that police

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opened fire on civilians.

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There is no part of the country you go to where you don't

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find people telling you they are not well treated.

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Each of these states...

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Nigeria has 36 states.

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Each state has an autonomous government of its own.

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Everybody blames only the president at the centre.

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It doesn't always make sense.

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But the fact is...

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You have alluded to it.

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Nigeria is a deeply divided country.

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That's what a UN report said in 2016.

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It also said, since independence, Nigeria has struggled to build

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and sustain national integration.

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For decades, different segments of Nigeria's population

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have at times expressed fears of marginalisation.

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Everybody complains of marginalisation.

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There is always one group saying we have been left out of the scheme.

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What is there to share?

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The general revenue from oil and gas.

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There is a formula for distribution to the states.

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They get their own share of the revenue.

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But every still blames the federal government for marginalisation.

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You know why they complain - we haven't had enough of our people

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appointed to certain key positions at the centre.

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Let's look at agriculture, because that's your ministry.

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Now, Nigeria spends $22 billion every year importing food.

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It got so much agricultural land, yet more than half

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of it goes unfarmed.

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That's tragic.

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It is tragic, because once we got into this habit of importing,

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because there was oil revenue to bring in the rice, the sugar,

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the milk, people simply gave up on agriculture.

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A crisis among the elite.

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Banks wouldn't lend money to agriculture.

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They lent money to...

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It was at 25%.

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And that remains the lending average in Nigeria, even today.

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So we gave up on agriculture.

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Now, we have no more returns from oil and gas,

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we are short of food and everybody's realising that we made a serious

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mistake and we have to correct it.

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Which is exactly what we're doing.

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But it has...

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It is amazing, because, in the 1970s, Nigeria

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was an agricultural superpower.

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Before we got oil and gas.

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In Africa.

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Absolutely.

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You were number two in cocoa production,

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you were groundnut exporters, exported palm oil.

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You now have to import your palm oil.

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People just relied on oil?

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Everybody relied on oil and gas.

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In a way, it is good that we are facing a new reality.

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Get back to agriculture.

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That is your core competence as a nation.

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And believe me, we are working at it.

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This year alone, we are almost close to stopping the importation of rice,

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which cost us $5 million a day over a period of nearly 30 years.

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We are about to end it.

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We can do it, we have decided to do it, we have the support

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of the president and many of the State governors are working

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on it, and I assure you, it another year, we may be selling

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rice to somebody else.

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But, you know, a lot of people, I think including you,

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will agree that when it comes to the smallholder farmers

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in Nigeria and most of the farmers are, of course, smallholders,

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but also agribusiness, high borrowing rates have made it

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practically impossible for them to scale up production.

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Absolutely.

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They want to borrow, but they can't, and the banks are not lending.

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A tiny fraction of Nigerian banks' lending goes to local

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agricultural production.

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Almost zero now, because they lend to traders, to importers,

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not to the farmers.

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But you just said you were getting to grips with the problem.

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We have found a way out.

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This bank has intervened and the Bank of Agriculture

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has been restructured.

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Just two days ago I had a meeting before I came here to fix finances

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to support lending to agriculture at a single digit.

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And it is because of the central bank's intervention,

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direct intervention, criticised by some economists,

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which has worked for us.

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The rice production and grain production has gone up phenomenally

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in the last 12 months.

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We have to work it out.

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We can't rely on the commercial banks.

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The Bank of Agriculture will come into place.

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And then the interest rates we charge will be the average,

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that farmers can manage.

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The good news is that the yields on farms have risen because we did

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a soil map of Nigeria, change the fertiliser application

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formula and farmers have yielded up from two tonnes a hectare,

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to seven and a half.

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And that has made it more safe for them to go back to the farm.

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One of your predecessors as Agriculture Minister,

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Akin Adesina, now president of the African Development Bank,

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says agriculture is really, really important, it employs two

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thirds of the workforce in Nigeria, 28% now of GDP comes

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from agriculture in Nigeria.

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But he says you've got to bake farming sexy,

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so that all those young Nigerians want to work in farming and not just

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all go to the cities.

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Are you making farming sexy?

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Absolutely.

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I'll tell you the story of a young man I saw in Kebbi State.

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Kebbi is about 1,000 miles from Lagos, 1,000 kilometres.

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And he was wearing a T-shirt.

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The T-shirt bore the name of a local politician in Lagos.

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I saw him in Kebbi and I said, where did you meet that family?

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He said, oh, I was under the bridge in Lagos for one year,

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nearly starved to death, until I heard that rice growing

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was taking place in my state and I got back home.

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And in one year I made more than half a million naira in income.

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The young men and women are returning to agriculture.

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On a large-scale.

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Because we are buying them equipment, giving them good seeds,

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preparing land of them, and increasing the number

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of tractors on the farms.

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It's the only way of doing it.

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But, as things stand, Nigeria still depends on oil and gas

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for 90% of its export earnings and about 70% of state revenues.

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When do you really think we are going to see that greater

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diversification in the Nigerian economy so that those

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figures go down?

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There is a simple strategy.

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In another year, we will be absolutely self-sufficient

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in the local staples.

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We are number two in the world in sorghum, number three in millet.

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So you could halve your import bill?

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Absolutely.

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We are stopping rice importation.

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That's cutting $5 million a day from the import

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bill in another year.

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Once that is done, we move to exports.

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Cocoa, cashew, sesame seed, pulses from India, cassava.

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OK.

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And if you really want to boost your agricultural earnings,

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you're going to have to give some added value to your raw product.

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Let me give you one example.

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Nigeria accounts for about 11% of Africa's total tomato production,

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yet you spend $100 million a year on importing tomato puree

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from China and Italy.

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It just doesn't make sense.

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Tomato paste producers, from certain parts of the world,

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continue to lower their prices to make a local production

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in Nigeria unprofitable.

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Who are you saying is doing that?

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Some countries from the far east.

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The one that's name begins with C?

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Probably.

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We're saying, listen, we need to create jobs

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for our people, especially women in agriculture,

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and they keep lowering the prices, so we have an alternative.

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Either ban their products altogether, or raise the duties,

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because we can't keep satisfying the sentiment of so-called

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free trade sentiments.

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OK, but that is one side of the argument, but you've also got

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to make sure you have proper processing plants,

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canning facilities, people who have the skills.

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Precisely what I'm telling you.

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To make puree out of the tomatoes.

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One of the biggest puree plants in Africa -

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it can't operate because if it buys the tomatoes from the local farmers,

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processes at home, the prices will be a bit higher

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than the imported.

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But those importing to us are subsidising their commodities.

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But when that happens, that's when Nigeria and other

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African countries, of course in the same situation,

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will really start boosting your export earnings from something

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other than oil.

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So as I said, things stand at the moment that you depend

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on oil, and we are seeing the activities of the militants

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of the Niger Delta, the oil producing region of Nigeria,

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the Niger Delta Avengers.

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There have been attempts to have negotiations with the government,

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but they have said that they are renewing their campaign

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for a wholesale destruction of Nigeria's oil production in 2017.

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You're going to face a tough year.

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The vice president of Nigeria was there just Monday morning before

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he flew here for the Davos conference.

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He has met with them.

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The talks going on at the highest level between the Nigerian

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government and the militants.

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A number of us believe that perhaps really we need to take steps

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to evolve and engage in war of the Niger Delta citizens

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in the oil industry, to guarantee peace and equity.

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By doing one or two things.

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Build a few more refineries in that zone.

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Let the shareholding belong to these members of those communities,

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so they become part of the exploration and exploitation

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of the resource in their region.

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I think that language and that message we will probably begin

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to see shortly and then we can find peace.

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So you are optimistic on that?

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Absolutely.

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But all this comes at a time when Nigeria is deeply

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engulfed in recession.

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The worst for decades.

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You have inflation about 18%.

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Your growth last year was negative.

0:17:130:17:18

You have high levels of unemployment.

0:17:180:17:24

About an $11 billion budget deficit.

0:17:240:17:30

Even President Buhari himself, in September,

0:17:300:17:32

said, Nigeria suddenly seems to be a poor country.

0:17:320:17:34

Where are you going to get the money to do all the things you say that

0:17:340:17:38

you want to?

0:17:380:17:39

Two things will happen.

0:17:390:17:40

Economists tell you you have to spend your way out of recession.

0:17:400:17:44

If you have to spend your way out of recession, you have to find

0:17:440:17:47

the money to spend.

0:17:470:17:49

Where is that money going to come from?

0:17:490:17:51

If you don't have the money, you can borrow.

0:17:510:17:53

But people aren't borrowing for you.

0:17:530:17:55

Lenders like the World Bank have said, we don't want to lend money

0:17:550:18:00

to Nigeria because we don't think President Buhari is carrying out

0:18:000:18:03

the reforms that we would like him to.

0:18:030:18:05

But some of the reforms they are asking for is further

0:18:050:18:08

devaluation of the currency, which is making life more

0:18:080:18:10

miserable at home.

0:18:100:18:11

If you go taking new measures that make people unhappier,

0:18:110:18:14

and there is a revolt at home, then they say,

0:18:140:18:16

OK, there is too much chaos in your country.

0:18:170:18:19

You're referring to the fact that the naira is allowed to float

0:18:190:18:22

and we saw a depreciation of about 40% of its value.

0:18:220:18:25

Exactly, because as long as your import dependent,

0:18:250:18:27

you keep weakening your currency.

0:18:270:18:29

There is no end to it.

0:18:290:18:30

Two things will happen.

0:18:310:18:31

Cut down your food bill, which we will, in another year.

0:18:310:18:34

I can assure you food importation will drop so drastically,

0:18:350:18:37

the world won't believe it, and we will become major exporters.

0:18:370:18:40

Right now, we feed west, north and central Africa in grain.

0:18:400:18:43

But, you know minister, there is scepticism

0:18:430:18:45

that the government plans will ease the crisis.

0:18:450:18:47

Let me tell you what economist Doyin Salami said.

0:18:470:18:50

He was on President Buhari's transition team.

0:18:500:18:52

Buhari is instinctively not capitalist, but has not articulated

0:18:520:18:54

a feasible strategy for achieving inclusive growth

0:18:540:18:56

through state driven means.

0:18:560:19:08

He needs to be a bit more pro-market.

0:19:080:19:10

Everybody in Nigeria is pro-market.

0:19:100:19:11

You are right.

0:19:110:19:12

There is one problem.

0:19:120:19:13

I am not an economist.

0:19:130:19:15

I am a teacher and a farmer.

0:19:150:19:16

Economics is a very imprecise science.

0:19:170:19:18

Sometimes there are so many contradictions.

0:19:180:19:20

We had a meeting with the entire Cabinet about six months ago

0:19:200:19:23

and they suggested, borrow your way through and sort the problem out,

0:19:230:19:26

fix the economy and then repay the loans.

0:19:260:19:28

The moment the government unfolded this plan for borrowing,

0:19:280:19:31

the whole country went up in arms.

0:19:310:19:33

Don't borrow any more money.

0:19:330:19:37

Then they said, OK, sell marginal assets, redundant assets.

0:19:370:19:39

Ah, don't sell a thing.

0:19:390:19:40

The Saudi Arabians are selling off, according to their announcement,

0:19:410:19:43

49% of Aramco.

0:19:430:19:47

The Saudis are not anywhere in as much difficulty as Nigeria.

0:19:470:19:50

A population of 25 million.

0:19:500:19:54

And the point is?

0:19:540:19:58

The point is, the same economists who say borrow your way through,

0:19:580:20:01

quickly said don't borrow.

0:20:010:20:02

The next minute, they say sell some of your assets.

0:20:020:20:05

Or they say, don't sell anything.

0:20:050:20:11

So you are saying President Buhari is getting conflicting advice?

0:20:110:20:14

He is getting conflicting advice.

0:20:140:20:17

And yet, most of the elite in the cities, and in fairness

0:20:170:20:20

to them, they mean well, they don't really connect very much

0:20:200:20:23

with what goes on below.

0:20:230:20:29

But even President Obasanjo, a former president of Nigeria

0:20:290:20:32

who is a supporter of Buhari, has said the economy,

0:20:320:20:34

economics is not his strong suit.

0:20:340:20:36

Is that true?

0:20:360:20:37

And you asked them, what do you suggest in these circumstances?

0:20:370:20:40

And they tell you nothing concrete.

0:20:400:20:41

That's the problem.

0:20:410:20:42

But there have been criticisms of President Buhari

0:20:420:20:44

from diplomats, business leaders.

0:20:440:20:45

They all talk of paralysis and a lack of urgency,

0:20:450:20:48

the government losing momentum.

0:20:480:20:49

I mean, it took him six months to appoint a cabinet

0:20:490:20:52

after he won election.

0:20:520:20:55

He had certain challenges which were not known to the public.

0:20:550:20:58

Some people said he should have named the Cabinet as quickly

0:20:580:21:01

he should have.

0:21:010:21:02

Some said he didn't name the Cabinet in good time.

0:21:020:21:05

He was under different kinds of pressure which suggested that

0:21:050:21:07

perhaps because he was watching the economy, the cost of governance

0:21:070:21:11

in Nigeria is so heavy that before he came,

0:21:110:21:13

90% of our budget went to recurrent overheads and debt

0:21:130:21:16

servicing, leaving 10%...

0:21:160:21:38

That wasn't the point I was making.

0:21:380:21:40

I have to put it to you, even allies such as his wife of 27

0:21:400:21:44

years, Aisha, has said, I'm not sure if you ran for office

0:21:440:21:47

in 2019 whether I would back him.

0:21:470:21:49

She says, he doesn't know 45 of the 50 people who have been

0:21:490:21:53

appointed in his administration.

0:21:530:21:54

This is his own wife!

0:21:540:21:55

She did make that comment and we recognise it.

0:21:550:21:58

She expressed her view, which also shows that Buhari

0:21:580:22:01

is a Democrat.

0:22:010:22:01

Well, I don't know, he told her to get back

0:22:010:22:04

into the kitchen - and the other room, wherever that

0:22:040:22:07

other room is.

0:22:070:22:08

It was meant to be taken as a joke.

0:22:080:22:10

It was a family matter.

0:22:100:22:12

She made a comment, she had her reasons,

0:22:120:22:14

but that wasn't a national and international crisis as people

0:22:140:22:16

made of it.

0:22:160:22:17

The point is, right now in Nigeria, the only way to go is to go back

0:22:170:22:21

to agriculture, get it right - and we are working hard at it -

0:22:220:22:25

because until you sort out the food problem,

0:22:250:22:28

nothing else will work.

0:22:280:22:29

And corruption was the big thing that President Buhari campaigned on.

0:22:290:22:34

And he is fighting it so seriously.

0:22:350:22:36

And they are fighting him back.

0:22:360:22:39

He says 10 billion has been lost, but so far you've only managed

0:22:390:22:42

to recover 600 million and only one person,

0:22:430:22:45

a former national security adviser, Sambo Dasuki, is standing

0:22:450:22:47

trial for corruption.

0:22:470:22:50

There are many people in court.

0:22:500:22:51

Why do you think he has taken the corruption fight to the courts?

0:22:510:22:55

Because there are deliberate delays in the system.

0:22:550:22:57

And he knows as head of state and President that there are certain

0:22:570:23:01

things that could have been done faster.

0:23:010:23:03

He is not a judge.

0:23:030:23:04

He is no longer a military head of state.

0:23:040:23:06

He cannot just tell people without trial.

0:23:060:23:08

The cases go to court.

0:23:080:23:10

Some have been in court since 2007.

0:23:100:23:12

So we will see movement.

0:23:120:23:13

Finally, in June, President Buhari declared that Nigeria is facing

0:23:130:23:16

"probably the toughest time in the history of our nation".

0:23:160:23:19

Do you agree?

0:23:190:23:20

Probably true, yes.

0:23:200:23:26

Probably true?

0:23:260:23:26

If he doesn't succeed, Nigeria will fail.

0:23:260:23:28

He will succeed because we are working at the issues now.

0:23:280:23:31

The problem, and this is advice to all of us,

0:23:310:23:34

the Nigerian elite, the banking elite, the political elite,

0:23:340:23:37

is for us to look inside Nigeria a little more.

0:23:370:23:39

We have experts on every subject, we have people who have the finest

0:23:390:23:43

degrees from the finest universities in the world.

0:23:430:23:50

The majority of us don't know our country well, unfortunately.

0:23:500:23:52

Minister Audu Ogbeh, thank you very much for coming on HARDtalk.

0:23:520:23:55

Thank you very much.

0:23:550:24:19

Wednesday will start quite windy across northern and western parts

0:24:190:24:22

of the UK, and continue that way.

0:24:220:24:23

Whereas into parts of southern England, the Midlands,

0:24:230:24:26

East Anglia, it is troublesome fog once again.

0:24:260:24:28

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