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Welcome to HARDtalk, with me, Zeinab Badawi, | 0:00:05 | 0:00:08 | |
from the Swiss resort of Davos, where my guest is one | 0:00:08 | 0:00:11 | |
of the delegates of the annual World Economic Forum - | 0:00:11 | 0:00:14 | |
Nigeria's Agriculture Minister, Audu Ogbeh. | 0:00:14 | 0:00:18 | |
When President Buhari came to power 18 months ago, he raised hopes | 0:00:18 | 0:00:21 | |
that he would reform the country. | 0:00:21 | 0:00:26 | |
Instead, Nigeria is involved in its worst recession for 20 years. | 0:00:26 | 0:00:29 | |
There is widespread food insecurity in the north and growing unrest. | 0:00:29 | 0:00:33 | |
Why can't this oil-rich nation with plenty of farmland | 0:00:33 | 0:00:37 | |
feed its own people and enjoy greater stability? | 0:00:37 | 0:00:41 | |
Minister Audu Ogbeh, welcome to HARDtalk. | 0:00:41 | 0:00:42 | |
Minister Audu Ogbeh, welcome to HARDtalk. | 0:00:56 | 0:00:59 | |
Thank you very much for inviting me here. | 0:00:59 | 0:01:01 | |
We've seen 2 million people displaced by Boko Haram | 0:01:01 | 0:01:04 | |
in the north of Nigeria. | 0:01:04 | 0:01:06 | |
Terrible food insecurity there now. | 0:01:06 | 0:01:12 | |
The UN Humanitarian Office is warning of severe food shortages. | 0:01:12 | 0:01:15 | |
Nearly half a million children face acute malnutrition and that people | 0:01:15 | 0:01:18 | |
will die if aid is not given. | 0:01:18 | 0:01:20 | |
Are you managing to get these people some food to eat? | 0:01:20 | 0:01:26 | |
We are managing to get them some food. | 0:01:26 | 0:01:31 | |
My ministry sent over 10,000 tonnes of grain, | 0:01:31 | 0:01:34 | |
about four months ago. | 0:01:34 | 0:01:39 | |
On a regular basis the National Emergency Management Authority sends | 0:01:39 | 0:01:46 | |
anything up to half a million tonnes of grain to north-east. | 0:01:46 | 0:01:49 | |
This is not to say that that's absolutely enough to feed them, | 0:01:49 | 0:01:52 | |
but food is being rushed to the north-east almost | 0:01:52 | 0:01:54 | |
on a weekly basis. | 0:01:54 | 0:01:55 | |
And you can categorically say that people will not die | 0:01:55 | 0:01:58 | |
in northern Nigeria? | 0:01:58 | 0:01:59 | |
A few will die, a certain number will, because they are moving back | 0:01:59 | 0:02:03 | |
to their villages now. | 0:02:03 | 0:02:04 | |
It's too late... | 0:02:04 | 0:02:05 | |
What does "a certain number" mean, Minister? | 0:02:05 | 0:02:07 | |
You could have a few thousand probably not getting enough food, | 0:02:07 | 0:02:11 | |
especially the children, in the camps. | 0:02:11 | 0:02:14 | |
Because they have special kinds of food they need to eat. | 0:02:14 | 0:02:17 | |
We are importing out any single time now... | 0:02:17 | 0:02:20 | |
I just approved about ten shiploads, ten aircraft loads of ready to use | 0:02:20 | 0:02:24 | |
food materials from Western Europe to be delivered to | 0:02:24 | 0:02:27 | |
children in the camps. | 0:02:27 | 0:02:33 | |
Because they can't eat the kind of food is the adult seat. | 0:02:33 | 0:02:36 | |
Milk, you know, soya beans, protein enriched foods like that | 0:02:36 | 0:02:39 | |
for the children to eat. | 0:02:39 | 0:02:41 | |
But definitely many will go through hardship. | 0:02:41 | 0:02:45 | |
But you just said that you believe that thousands, | 0:02:45 | 0:02:50 | |
including many children, could die. | 0:02:50 | 0:02:51 | |
Many could die, if the programmes are sustained, they went. | 0:02:52 | 0:02:58 | |
If there is any halt in them, or any difficulties in the way | 0:02:58 | 0:03:01 | |
of deliveries, a number will die. | 0:03:01 | 0:03:03 | |
I can't be precise. | 0:03:03 | 0:03:04 | |
Are you saying here, now, that you are appealing for more | 0:03:04 | 0:03:07 | |
help to prevent those deaths? | 0:03:07 | 0:03:08 | |
As much help as we can get, but at home we are doing | 0:03:09 | 0:03:12 | |
a whole lot of work. | 0:03:12 | 0:03:13 | |
I am a member of a national committee for delivering | 0:03:13 | 0:03:16 | |
food to the north-east, especially because I am | 0:03:16 | 0:03:18 | |
in the Ministry of agriculture, but other agencies, the Red Cross, | 0:03:18 | 0:03:21 | |
the National Emergency Management Authority, organisations | 0:03:21 | 0:03:23 | |
like the Dangote Group, are sending things to the north-east | 0:03:23 | 0:03:26 | |
like rice and beans and yams and so on on a daily basis. | 0:03:26 | 0:03:29 | |
But what you have got to do is to ensure that these people | 0:03:29 | 0:03:33 | |
enjoy some stability, and that means really | 0:03:33 | 0:03:35 | |
defeating Boko Haram, who have been responsible | 0:03:35 | 0:03:36 | |
for many atrocities. | 0:03:36 | 0:03:38 | |
We all know about the schoolgirls who were kidnapped and so on. | 0:03:39 | 0:03:42 | |
President Buhari says, "We are getting the better of them." | 0:03:42 | 0:03:47 | |
But the International Crisis Group says that there is still substantial | 0:03:47 | 0:03:50 | |
resistance by Boko Haram. | 0:03:50 | 0:03:56 | |
This is a war you cannot win in one day. | 0:03:56 | 0:03:58 | |
It is not a regular war. | 0:03:58 | 0:04:00 | |
If it was, the Nigerian army is capable of dealing with it. | 0:04:00 | 0:04:03 | |
Number two, people must remember, when it came | 0:04:03 | 0:04:06 | |
in initially, the handling - I'm not just here to criticise | 0:04:06 | 0:04:09 | |
the previous government - was extremely poor. | 0:04:09 | 0:04:11 | |
President Buhari came in and how to restructure the Army. | 0:04:11 | 0:04:14 | |
To put them in a position to put Boko Haram on the run. | 0:04:14 | 0:04:21 | |
It will not end overnight, I can assure you. | 0:04:21 | 0:04:24 | |
But is the Nigerian army properly equipped to fight Boko Haram? | 0:04:25 | 0:04:28 | |
Let me tell you what a security analyst based in Lagos says. | 0:04:28 | 0:04:31 | |
He says, you can't send men to fight Boko Haram wearing flip-flops | 0:04:31 | 0:04:35 | |
and rusty rifles with no ammunition, that is not going to work. | 0:04:35 | 0:04:47 | |
He's right, isn't he? | 0:04:47 | 0:04:48 | |
Well, I don't know who he is, or whether he has been | 0:04:48 | 0:04:51 | |
on the waterfront. | 0:04:51 | 0:04:52 | |
He is with the Pilgrims Africa security company, | 0:04:52 | 0:04:54 | |
which is based in Lagos. | 0:04:54 | 0:04:55 | |
How often has he been on the waterfront? | 0:04:56 | 0:05:03 | |
Sometimes, commentators far-away from the front can comment and it | 0:05:03 | 0:05:06 | |
makes it look like nobody is doing any work. | 0:05:06 | 0:05:08 | |
But, rifles and tanks and weapons of all kinds have to be bought. | 0:05:08 | 0:05:12 | |
But it's also a question of inspiring trust and confidence | 0:05:12 | 0:05:15 | |
amongst people in your country about the abilities | 0:05:15 | 0:05:17 | |
of the security forces. | 0:05:17 | 0:05:18 | |
If that situation had not changed, some would not have been captured. | 0:05:18 | 0:05:21 | |
Even the people in Borno State themselves will tell you that | 0:05:21 | 0:05:24 | |
things are a lot better, they have more hope | 0:05:24 | 0:05:26 | |
and more confidence. | 0:05:26 | 0:05:36 | |
Well, let me tell you what happened | 0:05:36 | 0:05:38 | |
in Borno State, and you know very well yourself, Minister, | 0:05:38 | 0:05:40 | |
that's nearly 100 people died because the Nigerian Air Force | 0:05:40 | 0:05:43 | |
accidentally hit a refugee camp in Borno State. | 0:05:43 | 0:05:45 | |
A very tragic occurrence. | 0:05:45 | 0:05:46 | |
It is not going to inspire trust, though, is it? | 0:05:46 | 0:05:49 | |
Didn't the US Army hit Russian troops in Syria? | 0:05:49 | 0:05:52 | |
Didn't they apologise for it? | 0:05:52 | 0:05:57 | |
If we talk to the Americans, we'll put these things to them. | 0:05:57 | 0:06:00 | |
Friendly fire, and so on. | 0:06:00 | 0:06:01 | |
Things happen in warfare. | 0:06:02 | 0:06:03 | |
Nobody can imagine that the Nigerian Air Force deliberately | 0:06:03 | 0:06:05 | |
bombed a refugee camp. | 0:06:05 | 0:06:06 | |
I didn't say that. | 0:06:06 | 0:06:07 | |
I said it doesn't inspire trust and confidence in the military. | 0:06:07 | 0:06:10 | |
Accidents do happen. | 0:06:10 | 0:06:11 | |
We regret it, we are sad about it, it shouldn't have happened, | 0:06:11 | 0:06:14 | |
but these things do happen. | 0:06:14 | 0:06:16 | |
The president is mounting an enquiry. | 0:06:16 | 0:06:17 | |
Why did it happen? | 0:06:17 | 0:06:18 | |
Somebody has to be called to account for it. | 0:06:18 | 0:06:21 | |
And will there be resignations? | 0:06:21 | 0:06:22 | |
I do not know yet, it depends on the findings. | 0:06:22 | 0:06:28 | |
But the fact is, it is not just Boko Haram. | 0:06:28 | 0:06:31 | |
You say you are getting the better of Boko Haram and I put it | 0:06:31 | 0:06:34 | |
to you that you have got armrests now from the Islamic movement, | 0:06:35 | 0:06:38 | |
a Shia group in northern Nigeria, 300 people were killed | 0:06:38 | 0:06:40 | |
in Kaduna State in 2016. | 0:06:40 | 0:06:43 | |
We've also got in the south-east Biafra separatists. | 0:06:43 | 0:06:46 | |
We all remember the terrible Biafra war in 1967-70. | 0:06:46 | 0:06:48 | |
And you've got conflicts between pastoralists and farmers | 0:06:48 | 0:06:50 | |
spreading across the country, leading to deaths. | 0:06:50 | 0:06:52 | |
So, really, you've got so much in your hands. | 0:06:52 | 0:06:55 | |
It's not just Boko Haram. | 0:06:55 | 0:06:59 | |
We have a lot on our hands. | 0:06:59 | 0:07:01 | |
We are working towards solving them. | 0:07:01 | 0:07:02 | |
I mean, this is a country of 193 million people. | 0:07:02 | 0:07:06 | |
A country hit by severe economic recession. | 0:07:06 | 0:07:08 | |
And people have started reacting in different ways. | 0:07:08 | 0:07:10 | |
I mean, Boko Haram was a product of a certain amount of neglect and, | 0:07:10 | 0:07:14 | |
perhaps, indifference to the real issues in the economy. | 0:07:14 | 0:07:16 | |
We got caught by what they called the Dutch disease. | 0:07:16 | 0:07:26 | |
Oil and gas came in and local production literally halted | 0:07:26 | 0:07:28 | |
in agriculture and manufacturing. | 0:07:28 | 0:07:31 | |
The long-term effects of these uprisings are driven mainly by lack | 0:07:31 | 0:07:33 | |
of inclusion and perhaps lack of internal productivity | 0:07:33 | 0:07:36 | |
and activity in the economy. | 0:07:36 | 0:07:41 | |
And you are seeing that now in the south-east with the Biafra | 0:07:42 | 0:07:46 | |
separatists who was saying, "We are not treated fairly | 0:07:46 | 0:07:49 | |
by the federal government." | 0:07:49 | 0:07:53 | |
In May, there were 40 deaths in Onitsha, | 0:07:53 | 0:07:59 | |
Amnesty International say, you know, that police | 0:07:59 | 0:08:01 | |
opened fire on civilians. | 0:08:01 | 0:08:02 | |
There is no part of the country you go to where you don't | 0:08:02 | 0:08:05 | |
find people telling you they are not well treated. | 0:08:05 | 0:08:08 | |
Each of these states... | 0:08:08 | 0:08:09 | |
Nigeria has 36 states. | 0:08:09 | 0:08:10 | |
Each state has an autonomous government of its own. | 0:08:10 | 0:08:12 | |
Everybody blames only the president at the centre. | 0:08:12 | 0:08:15 | |
It doesn't always make sense. | 0:08:15 | 0:08:16 | |
But the fact is... | 0:08:16 | 0:08:17 | |
You have alluded to it. | 0:08:17 | 0:08:19 | |
Nigeria is a deeply divided country. | 0:08:19 | 0:08:24 | |
That's what a UN report said in 2016. | 0:08:24 | 0:08:26 | |
It also said, since independence, Nigeria has struggled to build | 0:08:26 | 0:08:29 | |
and sustain national integration. | 0:08:29 | 0:08:30 | |
For decades, different segments of Nigeria's population | 0:08:30 | 0:08:32 | |
have at times expressed fears of marginalisation. | 0:08:32 | 0:08:35 | |
Everybody complains of marginalisation. | 0:08:35 | 0:08:38 | |
There is always one group saying we have been left out of the scheme. | 0:08:38 | 0:08:42 | |
What is there to share? | 0:08:42 | 0:08:45 | |
The general revenue from oil and gas. | 0:08:45 | 0:08:47 | |
There is a formula for distribution to the states. | 0:08:47 | 0:08:49 | |
They get their own share of the revenue. | 0:08:49 | 0:08:51 | |
But every still blames the federal government for marginalisation. | 0:08:51 | 0:08:54 | |
You know why they complain - we haven't had enough of our people | 0:08:54 | 0:08:57 | |
appointed to certain key positions at the centre. | 0:08:57 | 0:09:01 | |
Let's look at agriculture, because that's your ministry. | 0:09:01 | 0:09:04 | |
Now, Nigeria spends $22 billion every year importing food. | 0:09:04 | 0:09:07 | |
It got so much agricultural land, yet more than half | 0:09:07 | 0:09:09 | |
of it goes unfarmed. | 0:09:10 | 0:09:11 | |
That's tragic. | 0:09:11 | 0:09:16 | |
It is tragic, because once we got into this habit of importing, | 0:09:16 | 0:09:19 | |
because there was oil revenue to bring in the rice, the sugar, | 0:09:19 | 0:09:22 | |
the milk, people simply gave up on agriculture. | 0:09:22 | 0:09:30 | |
A crisis among the elite. | 0:09:30 | 0:09:34 | |
Banks wouldn't lend money to agriculture. | 0:09:34 | 0:09:36 | |
They lent money to... | 0:09:36 | 0:09:38 | |
It was at 25%. | 0:09:38 | 0:09:39 | |
And that remains the lending average in Nigeria, even today. | 0:09:39 | 0:09:41 | |
So we gave up on agriculture. | 0:09:41 | 0:09:43 | |
Now, we have no more returns from oil and gas, | 0:09:43 | 0:09:47 | |
we are short of food and everybody's realising that we made a serious | 0:09:47 | 0:09:50 | |
mistake and we have to correct it. | 0:09:50 | 0:09:52 | |
Which is exactly what we're doing. | 0:09:52 | 0:09:54 | |
But it has... | 0:09:54 | 0:09:55 | |
It is amazing, because, in the 1970s, Nigeria | 0:09:55 | 0:09:57 | |
was an agricultural superpower. | 0:09:58 | 0:10:01 | |
Before we got oil and gas. | 0:10:01 | 0:10:03 | |
In Africa. | 0:10:03 | 0:10:05 | |
Absolutely. | 0:10:05 | 0:10:05 | |
You were number two in cocoa production, | 0:10:05 | 0:10:07 | |
you were groundnut exporters, exported palm oil. | 0:10:07 | 0:10:09 | |
You now have to import your palm oil. | 0:10:09 | 0:10:11 | |
People just relied on oil? | 0:10:11 | 0:10:20 | |
Everybody relied on oil and gas. | 0:10:20 | 0:10:21 | |
In a way, it is good that we are facing a new reality. | 0:10:21 | 0:10:25 | |
Get back to agriculture. | 0:10:25 | 0:10:26 | |
That is your core competence as a nation. | 0:10:26 | 0:10:28 | |
And believe me, we are working at it. | 0:10:28 | 0:10:30 | |
This year alone, we are almost close to stopping the importation of rice, | 0:10:30 | 0:10:34 | |
which cost us $5 million a day over a period of nearly 30 years. | 0:10:34 | 0:10:38 | |
We are about to end it. | 0:10:38 | 0:10:39 | |
We can do it, we have decided to do it, we have the support | 0:10:39 | 0:10:43 | |
of the president and many of the State governors are working | 0:10:43 | 0:10:46 | |
on it, and I assure you, it another year, we may be selling | 0:10:46 | 0:10:50 | |
rice to somebody else. | 0:10:50 | 0:10:51 | |
But, you know, a lot of people, I think including you, | 0:10:51 | 0:10:54 | |
will agree that when it comes to the smallholder farmers | 0:10:54 | 0:10:57 | |
in Nigeria and most of the farmers are, of course, smallholders, | 0:10:57 | 0:11:01 | |
but also agribusiness, high borrowing rates have made it | 0:11:01 | 0:11:03 | |
practically impossible for them to scale up production. | 0:11:03 | 0:11:06 | |
Absolutely. | 0:11:06 | 0:11:13 | |
They want to borrow, but they can't, and the banks are not lending. | 0:11:13 | 0:11:16 | |
A tiny fraction of Nigerian banks' lending goes to local | 0:11:16 | 0:11:19 | |
agricultural production. | 0:11:19 | 0:11:19 | |
Almost zero now, because they lend to traders, to importers, | 0:11:20 | 0:11:22 | |
not to the farmers. | 0:11:22 | 0:11:26 | |
But you just said you were getting to grips with the problem. | 0:11:26 | 0:11:29 | |
We have found a way out. | 0:11:29 | 0:11:31 | |
This bank has intervened and the Bank of Agriculture | 0:11:31 | 0:11:33 | |
has been restructured. | 0:11:33 | 0:11:34 | |
Just two days ago I had a meeting before I came here to fix finances | 0:11:34 | 0:11:38 | |
to support lending to agriculture at a single digit. | 0:11:38 | 0:11:42 | |
And it is because of the central bank's intervention, | 0:11:42 | 0:11:45 | |
direct intervention, criticised by some economists, | 0:11:45 | 0:11:46 | |
which has worked for us. | 0:11:46 | 0:11:48 | |
The rice production and grain production has gone up phenomenally | 0:11:48 | 0:11:51 | |
in the last 12 months. | 0:11:51 | 0:11:53 | |
We have to work it out. | 0:11:53 | 0:11:56 | |
We can't rely on the commercial banks. | 0:11:56 | 0:11:59 | |
The Bank of Agriculture will come into place. | 0:11:59 | 0:12:01 | |
And then the interest rates we charge will be the average, | 0:12:01 | 0:12:04 | |
that farmers can manage. | 0:12:04 | 0:12:07 | |
The good news is that the yields on farms have risen because we did | 0:12:07 | 0:12:11 | |
a soil map of Nigeria, change the fertiliser application | 0:12:11 | 0:12:14 | |
formula and farmers have yielded up from two tonnes a hectare, | 0:12:14 | 0:12:17 | |
to seven and a half. | 0:12:17 | 0:12:21 | |
And that has made it more safe for them to go back to the farm. | 0:12:21 | 0:12:25 | |
One of your predecessors as Agriculture Minister, | 0:12:25 | 0:12:27 | |
Akin Adesina, now president of the African Development Bank, | 0:12:27 | 0:12:30 | |
says agriculture is really, really important, it employs two | 0:12:30 | 0:12:35 | |
thirds of the workforce in Nigeria, 28% now of GDP comes | 0:12:35 | 0:12:38 | |
from agriculture in Nigeria. | 0:12:38 | 0:12:41 | |
But he says you've got to bake farming sexy, | 0:12:41 | 0:12:46 | |
so that all those young Nigerians want to work in farming and not just | 0:12:46 | 0:12:49 | |
all go to the cities. | 0:12:49 | 0:12:51 | |
Are you making farming sexy? | 0:12:51 | 0:12:52 | |
Absolutely. | 0:12:52 | 0:12:53 | |
I'll tell you the story of a young man I saw in Kebbi State. | 0:12:53 | 0:13:04 | |
Kebbi is about 1,000 miles from Lagos, 1,000 kilometres. | 0:13:04 | 0:13:07 | |
And he was wearing a T-shirt. | 0:13:07 | 0:13:08 | |
The T-shirt bore the name of a local politician in Lagos. | 0:13:08 | 0:13:11 | |
I saw him in Kebbi and I said, where did you meet that family? | 0:13:11 | 0:13:15 | |
He said, oh, I was under the bridge in Lagos for one year, | 0:13:15 | 0:13:18 | |
nearly starved to death, until I heard that rice growing | 0:13:19 | 0:13:21 | |
was taking place in my state and I got back home. | 0:13:21 | 0:13:24 | |
And in one year I made more than half a million naira in income. | 0:13:24 | 0:13:28 | |
The young men and women are returning to agriculture. | 0:13:28 | 0:13:31 | |
On a large-scale. | 0:13:31 | 0:13:35 | |
Because we are buying them equipment, giving them good seeds, | 0:13:35 | 0:13:38 | |
preparing land of them, and increasing the number | 0:13:38 | 0:13:40 | |
of tractors on the farms. | 0:13:40 | 0:13:41 | |
It's the only way of doing it. | 0:13:41 | 0:13:43 | |
But, as things stand, Nigeria still depends on oil and gas | 0:13:43 | 0:13:46 | |
for 90% of its export earnings and about 70% of state revenues. | 0:13:46 | 0:13:49 | |
When do you really think we are going to see that greater | 0:13:49 | 0:13:52 | |
diversification in the Nigerian economy so that those | 0:13:52 | 0:13:55 | |
figures go down? | 0:13:55 | 0:13:55 | |
There is a simple strategy. | 0:13:56 | 0:13:57 | |
In another year, we will be absolutely self-sufficient | 0:13:57 | 0:13:59 | |
in the local staples. | 0:13:59 | 0:14:02 | |
We are number two in the world in sorghum, number three in millet. | 0:14:02 | 0:14:05 | |
So you could halve your import bill? | 0:14:05 | 0:14:07 | |
Absolutely. | 0:14:07 | 0:14:08 | |
We are stopping rice importation. | 0:14:08 | 0:14:09 | |
That's cutting $5 million a day from the import | 0:14:09 | 0:14:11 | |
bill in another year. | 0:14:11 | 0:14:12 | |
Once that is done, we move to exports. | 0:14:12 | 0:14:15 | |
Cocoa, cashew, sesame seed, pulses from India, cassava. | 0:14:15 | 0:14:23 | |
OK. | 0:14:23 | 0:14:25 | |
And if you really want to boost your agricultural earnings, | 0:14:25 | 0:14:27 | |
you're going to have to give some added value to your raw product. | 0:14:28 | 0:14:31 | |
Let me give you one example. | 0:14:31 | 0:14:33 | |
Nigeria accounts for about 11% of Africa's total tomato production, | 0:14:33 | 0:14:35 | |
yet you spend $100 million a year on importing tomato puree | 0:14:35 | 0:14:38 | |
from China and Italy. | 0:14:39 | 0:14:41 | |
It just doesn't make sense. | 0:14:41 | 0:14:43 | |
Tomato paste producers, from certain parts of the world, | 0:14:43 | 0:14:46 | |
continue to lower their prices to make a local production | 0:14:46 | 0:14:49 | |
in Nigeria unprofitable. | 0:14:49 | 0:14:53 | |
Who are you saying is doing that? | 0:14:53 | 0:14:55 | |
Some countries from the far east. | 0:14:55 | 0:15:03 | |
The one that's name begins with C? | 0:15:03 | 0:15:04 | |
Probably. | 0:15:04 | 0:15:05 | |
We're saying, listen, we need to create jobs | 0:15:05 | 0:15:07 | |
for our people, especially women in agriculture, | 0:15:07 | 0:15:09 | |
and they keep lowering the prices, so we have an alternative. | 0:15:09 | 0:15:12 | |
Either ban their products altogether, or raise the duties, | 0:15:12 | 0:15:14 | |
because we can't keep satisfying the sentiment of so-called | 0:15:14 | 0:15:17 | |
free trade sentiments. | 0:15:17 | 0:15:20 | |
OK, but that is one side of the argument, but you've also got | 0:15:20 | 0:15:23 | |
to make sure you have proper processing plants, | 0:15:23 | 0:15:25 | |
canning facilities, people who have the skills. | 0:15:25 | 0:15:27 | |
Precisely what I'm telling you. | 0:15:27 | 0:15:28 | |
To make puree out of the tomatoes. | 0:15:28 | 0:15:30 | |
One of the biggest puree plants in Africa - | 0:15:30 | 0:15:33 | |
it can't operate because if it buys the tomatoes from the local farmers, | 0:15:33 | 0:15:36 | |
processes at home, the prices will be a bit higher | 0:15:36 | 0:15:39 | |
than the imported. | 0:15:39 | 0:15:40 | |
But those importing to us are subsidising their commodities. | 0:15:40 | 0:15:47 | |
But when that happens, that's when Nigeria and other | 0:15:47 | 0:15:50 | |
African countries, of course in the same situation, | 0:15:50 | 0:15:52 | |
will really start boosting your export earnings from something | 0:15:52 | 0:15:54 | |
other than oil. | 0:15:54 | 0:15:56 | |
So as I said, things stand at the moment that you depend | 0:15:56 | 0:15:59 | |
on oil, and we are seeing the activities of the militants | 0:15:59 | 0:16:02 | |
of the Niger Delta, the oil producing region of Nigeria, | 0:16:02 | 0:16:05 | |
the Niger Delta Avengers. | 0:16:05 | 0:16:06 | |
There have been attempts to have negotiations with the government, | 0:16:06 | 0:16:09 | |
but they have said that they are renewing their campaign | 0:16:09 | 0:16:12 | |
for a wholesale destruction of Nigeria's oil production in 2017. | 0:16:12 | 0:16:17 | |
You're going to face a tough year. | 0:16:17 | 0:16:19 | |
The vice president of Nigeria was there just Monday morning before | 0:16:19 | 0:16:22 | |
he flew here for the Davos conference. | 0:16:22 | 0:16:24 | |
He has met with them. | 0:16:24 | 0:16:25 | |
The talks going on at the highest level between the Nigerian | 0:16:25 | 0:16:28 | |
government and the militants. | 0:16:28 | 0:16:29 | |
A number of us believe that perhaps really we need to take steps | 0:16:29 | 0:16:33 | |
to evolve and engage in war of the Niger Delta citizens | 0:16:33 | 0:16:36 | |
in the oil industry, to guarantee peace and equity. | 0:16:36 | 0:16:38 | |
By doing one or two things. | 0:16:38 | 0:16:40 | |
Build a few more refineries in that zone. | 0:16:40 | 0:16:42 | |
Let the shareholding belong to these members of those communities, | 0:16:42 | 0:16:45 | |
so they become part of the exploration and exploitation | 0:16:45 | 0:16:47 | |
of the resource in their region. | 0:16:47 | 0:16:58 | |
I think that language and that message we will probably begin | 0:16:58 | 0:17:01 | |
to see shortly and then we can find peace. | 0:17:01 | 0:17:04 | |
So you are optimistic on that? | 0:17:04 | 0:17:05 | |
Absolutely. | 0:17:05 | 0:17:07 | |
But all this comes at a time when Nigeria is deeply | 0:17:07 | 0:17:10 | |
engulfed in recession. | 0:17:10 | 0:17:11 | |
The worst for decades. | 0:17:11 | 0:17:12 | |
You have inflation about 18%. | 0:17:12 | 0:17:13 | |
Your growth last year was negative. | 0:17:13 | 0:17:18 | |
You have high levels of unemployment. | 0:17:18 | 0:17:24 | |
About an $11 billion budget deficit. | 0:17:24 | 0:17:30 | |
Even President Buhari himself, in September, | 0:17:30 | 0:17:32 | |
said, Nigeria suddenly seems to be a poor country. | 0:17:32 | 0:17:34 | |
Where are you going to get the money to do all the things you say that | 0:17:34 | 0:17:38 | |
you want to? | 0:17:38 | 0:17:39 | |
Two things will happen. | 0:17:39 | 0:17:40 | |
Economists tell you you have to spend your way out of recession. | 0:17:40 | 0:17:44 | |
If you have to spend your way out of recession, you have to find | 0:17:44 | 0:17:47 | |
the money to spend. | 0:17:47 | 0:17:49 | |
Where is that money going to come from? | 0:17:49 | 0:17:51 | |
If you don't have the money, you can borrow. | 0:17:51 | 0:17:53 | |
But people aren't borrowing for you. | 0:17:53 | 0:17:55 | |
Lenders like the World Bank have said, we don't want to lend money | 0:17:55 | 0:18:00 | |
to Nigeria because we don't think President Buhari is carrying out | 0:18:00 | 0:18:03 | |
the reforms that we would like him to. | 0:18:03 | 0:18:05 | |
But some of the reforms they are asking for is further | 0:18:05 | 0:18:08 | |
devaluation of the currency, which is making life more | 0:18:08 | 0:18:10 | |
miserable at home. | 0:18:10 | 0:18:11 | |
If you go taking new measures that make people unhappier, | 0:18:11 | 0:18:14 | |
and there is a revolt at home, then they say, | 0:18:14 | 0:18:16 | |
OK, there is too much chaos in your country. | 0:18:17 | 0:18:19 | |
You're referring to the fact that the naira is allowed to float | 0:18:19 | 0:18:22 | |
and we saw a depreciation of about 40% of its value. | 0:18:22 | 0:18:25 | |
Exactly, because as long as your import dependent, | 0:18:25 | 0:18:27 | |
you keep weakening your currency. | 0:18:27 | 0:18:29 | |
There is no end to it. | 0:18:29 | 0:18:30 | |
Two things will happen. | 0:18:31 | 0:18:31 | |
Cut down your food bill, which we will, in another year. | 0:18:31 | 0:18:34 | |
I can assure you food importation will drop so drastically, | 0:18:35 | 0:18:37 | |
the world won't believe it, and we will become major exporters. | 0:18:37 | 0:18:40 | |
Right now, we feed west, north and central Africa in grain. | 0:18:40 | 0:18:43 | |
But, you know minister, there is scepticism | 0:18:43 | 0:18:45 | |
that the government plans will ease the crisis. | 0:18:45 | 0:18:47 | |
Let me tell you what economist Doyin Salami said. | 0:18:47 | 0:18:50 | |
He was on President Buhari's transition team. | 0:18:50 | 0:18:52 | |
Buhari is instinctively not capitalist, but has not articulated | 0:18:52 | 0:18:54 | |
a feasible strategy for achieving inclusive growth | 0:18:54 | 0:18:56 | |
through state driven means. | 0:18:56 | 0:19:08 | |
He needs to be a bit more pro-market. | 0:19:08 | 0:19:10 | |
Everybody in Nigeria is pro-market. | 0:19:10 | 0:19:11 | |
You are right. | 0:19:11 | 0:19:12 | |
There is one problem. | 0:19:12 | 0:19:13 | |
I am not an economist. | 0:19:13 | 0:19:15 | |
I am a teacher and a farmer. | 0:19:15 | 0:19:16 | |
Economics is a very imprecise science. | 0:19:17 | 0:19:18 | |
Sometimes there are so many contradictions. | 0:19:18 | 0:19:20 | |
We had a meeting with the entire Cabinet about six months ago | 0:19:20 | 0:19:23 | |
and they suggested, borrow your way through and sort the problem out, | 0:19:23 | 0:19:26 | |
fix the economy and then repay the loans. | 0:19:26 | 0:19:28 | |
The moment the government unfolded this plan for borrowing, | 0:19:28 | 0:19:31 | |
the whole country went up in arms. | 0:19:31 | 0:19:33 | |
Don't borrow any more money. | 0:19:33 | 0:19:37 | |
Then they said, OK, sell marginal assets, redundant assets. | 0:19:37 | 0:19:39 | |
Ah, don't sell a thing. | 0:19:39 | 0:19:40 | |
The Saudi Arabians are selling off, according to their announcement, | 0:19:41 | 0:19:43 | |
49% of Aramco. | 0:19:43 | 0:19:47 | |
The Saudis are not anywhere in as much difficulty as Nigeria. | 0:19:47 | 0:19:50 | |
A population of 25 million. | 0:19:50 | 0:19:54 | |
And the point is? | 0:19:54 | 0:19:58 | |
The point is, the same economists who say borrow your way through, | 0:19:58 | 0:20:01 | |
quickly said don't borrow. | 0:20:01 | 0:20:02 | |
The next minute, they say sell some of your assets. | 0:20:02 | 0:20:05 | |
Or they say, don't sell anything. | 0:20:05 | 0:20:11 | |
So you are saying President Buhari is getting conflicting advice? | 0:20:11 | 0:20:14 | |
He is getting conflicting advice. | 0:20:14 | 0:20:17 | |
And yet, most of the elite in the cities, and in fairness | 0:20:17 | 0:20:20 | |
to them, they mean well, they don't really connect very much | 0:20:20 | 0:20:23 | |
with what goes on below. | 0:20:23 | 0:20:29 | |
But even President Obasanjo, a former president of Nigeria | 0:20:29 | 0:20:32 | |
who is a supporter of Buhari, has said the economy, | 0:20:32 | 0:20:34 | |
economics is not his strong suit. | 0:20:34 | 0:20:36 | |
Is that true? | 0:20:36 | 0:20:37 | |
And you asked them, what do you suggest in these circumstances? | 0:20:37 | 0:20:40 | |
And they tell you nothing concrete. | 0:20:40 | 0:20:41 | |
That's the problem. | 0:20:41 | 0:20:42 | |
But there have been criticisms of President Buhari | 0:20:42 | 0:20:44 | |
from diplomats, business leaders. | 0:20:44 | 0:20:45 | |
They all talk of paralysis and a lack of urgency, | 0:20:45 | 0:20:48 | |
the government losing momentum. | 0:20:48 | 0:20:49 | |
I mean, it took him six months to appoint a cabinet | 0:20:49 | 0:20:52 | |
after he won election. | 0:20:52 | 0:20:55 | |
He had certain challenges which were not known to the public. | 0:20:55 | 0:20:58 | |
Some people said he should have named the Cabinet as quickly | 0:20:58 | 0:21:01 | |
he should have. | 0:21:01 | 0:21:02 | |
Some said he didn't name the Cabinet in good time. | 0:21:02 | 0:21:05 | |
He was under different kinds of pressure which suggested that | 0:21:05 | 0:21:07 | |
perhaps because he was watching the economy, the cost of governance | 0:21:07 | 0:21:11 | |
in Nigeria is so heavy that before he came, | 0:21:11 | 0:21:13 | |
90% of our budget went to recurrent overheads and debt | 0:21:13 | 0:21:16 | |
servicing, leaving 10%... | 0:21:16 | 0:21:38 | |
That wasn't the point I was making. | 0:21:38 | 0:21:40 | |
I have to put it to you, even allies such as his wife of 27 | 0:21:40 | 0:21:44 | |
years, Aisha, has said, I'm not sure if you ran for office | 0:21:44 | 0:21:47 | |
in 2019 whether I would back him. | 0:21:47 | 0:21:49 | |
She says, he doesn't know 45 of the 50 people who have been | 0:21:49 | 0:21:53 | |
appointed in his administration. | 0:21:53 | 0:21:54 | |
This is his own wife! | 0:21:54 | 0:21:55 | |
She did make that comment and we recognise it. | 0:21:55 | 0:21:58 | |
She expressed her view, which also shows that Buhari | 0:21:58 | 0:22:01 | |
is a Democrat. | 0:22:01 | 0:22:01 | |
Well, I don't know, he told her to get back | 0:22:01 | 0:22:04 | |
into the kitchen - and the other room, wherever that | 0:22:04 | 0:22:07 | |
other room is. | 0:22:07 | 0:22:08 | |
It was meant to be taken as a joke. | 0:22:08 | 0:22:10 | |
It was a family matter. | 0:22:10 | 0:22:12 | |
She made a comment, she had her reasons, | 0:22:12 | 0:22:14 | |
but that wasn't a national and international crisis as people | 0:22:14 | 0:22:16 | |
made of it. | 0:22:16 | 0:22:17 | |
The point is, right now in Nigeria, the only way to go is to go back | 0:22:17 | 0:22:21 | |
to agriculture, get it right - and we are working hard at it - | 0:22:22 | 0:22:25 | |
because until you sort out the food problem, | 0:22:25 | 0:22:28 | |
nothing else will work. | 0:22:28 | 0:22:29 | |
And corruption was the big thing that President Buhari campaigned on. | 0:22:29 | 0:22:34 | |
And he is fighting it so seriously. | 0:22:35 | 0:22:36 | |
And they are fighting him back. | 0:22:36 | 0:22:39 | |
He says 10 billion has been lost, but so far you've only managed | 0:22:39 | 0:22:42 | |
to recover 600 million and only one person, | 0:22:43 | 0:22:45 | |
a former national security adviser, Sambo Dasuki, is standing | 0:22:45 | 0:22:47 | |
trial for corruption. | 0:22:47 | 0:22:50 | |
There are many people in court. | 0:22:50 | 0:22:51 | |
Why do you think he has taken the corruption fight to the courts? | 0:22:51 | 0:22:55 | |
Because there are deliberate delays in the system. | 0:22:55 | 0:22:57 | |
And he knows as head of state and President that there are certain | 0:22:57 | 0:23:01 | |
things that could have been done faster. | 0:23:01 | 0:23:03 | |
He is not a judge. | 0:23:03 | 0:23:04 | |
He is no longer a military head of state. | 0:23:04 | 0:23:06 | |
He cannot just tell people without trial. | 0:23:06 | 0:23:08 | |
The cases go to court. | 0:23:08 | 0:23:10 | |
Some have been in court since 2007. | 0:23:10 | 0:23:12 | |
So we will see movement. | 0:23:12 | 0:23:13 | |
Finally, in June, President Buhari declared that Nigeria is facing | 0:23:13 | 0:23:16 | |
"probably the toughest time in the history of our nation". | 0:23:16 | 0:23:19 | |
Do you agree? | 0:23:19 | 0:23:20 | |
Probably true, yes. | 0:23:20 | 0:23:26 | |
Probably true? | 0:23:26 | 0:23:26 | |
If he doesn't succeed, Nigeria will fail. | 0:23:26 | 0:23:28 | |
He will succeed because we are working at the issues now. | 0:23:28 | 0:23:31 | |
The problem, and this is advice to all of us, | 0:23:31 | 0:23:34 | |
the Nigerian elite, the banking elite, the political elite, | 0:23:34 | 0:23:37 | |
is for us to look inside Nigeria a little more. | 0:23:37 | 0:23:39 | |
We have experts on every subject, we have people who have the finest | 0:23:39 | 0:23:43 | |
degrees from the finest universities in the world. | 0:23:43 | 0:23:50 | |
The majority of us don't know our country well, unfortunately. | 0:23:50 | 0:23:52 | |
Minister Audu Ogbeh, thank you very much for coming on HARDtalk. | 0:23:52 | 0:23:55 | |
Thank you very much. | 0:23:55 | 0:24:19 | |
Wednesday will start quite windy across northern and western parts | 0:24:19 | 0:24:22 | |
of the UK, and continue that way. | 0:24:22 | 0:24:23 | |
Whereas into parts of southern England, the Midlands, | 0:24:23 | 0:24:26 | |
East Anglia, it is troublesome fog once again. | 0:24:26 | 0:24:28 |