Ayad Allawi, Vice President of Iraq HARDtalk

Welcome to HARDtalk, I am Stephen Sackur.

This summer, Iraqis can perhaps see a glimmer of light amid the darkness

that's enveloped their country for so long.

The country's second city, Mosul, is no longer in the hands

of jihadist fanatics, with the so-called Islamic State

But will any semblance of stability and unity follow?

My guest today is veteran Vice President Ayad Allawi.

Let's begin with the fallout from Iraq's national army victory over

so-called Islamic State in Mosul. Your Prime Minister, Mr Abadi,

hailed it as a great victory for Iraq. There was a sense of

triumphalism in his voice. Are you feeling triumphant today? Not

really. Winning a battle or two was not like winning the war. We want to

win the war against extremism and against terrorism. In Mosul of

course this was a good in achievement but indeed we have not

to Lucite of the people of most Oar and what he international community

did -- Mosul. And I want them that this is not the end of the story. I

want Abadi, I want the President, we need to win the war, and winning the

war should be political. By abolishing extremism as a whole from

society, and this can only be done by having a political process and by

having a quality amongst the people of Iraq. So, so, just to stick with

the military situation for a second, I one of the leaders for the Iraqi

armed forces in Mosul the other day and he said they would retake Tal

Afar, another town under IS control within days and the military ever

since they can eradicate the caliphate on Iraqi soil but you seem

to be saying it's not as simple as that. I don't think we are going to

see the end of ISIS at all. It will be with us for a long time not only

in Iraq but it will spread, it is spreading already. It has reached to

Thailand and to the Philippines eastwards and definitely to Europe

westwards. But in Iraq you are suggesting, what, they won't hold

territory so much as conduct an underground insurgency? Holding

territories is finished for them. But they will do insurgency, perform

insurgencies and embark on insurgencies and resorting to the

terrorist activities of explosions and killing associations. That is

why we have to win the war rather than battles. One aspect of Iraq's

approach to the Mosul conflict and the wider struggle against IS is the

allegation among many quarters, not least from the Kurdish leader, that

with the focus on the military struggle the Iraqi government has

consistently failed to prepare for the post battle political and

humanitarian settlement. Absolutely correct. Well, you're part of that

government. I have said it. I was the first one to say this. Neither

the humanitarian aspect was respected and treated well, nor the

fact that looking beyond the military activities, looking into

the political horizon of what should happen, this has not happened in two

areas, and I told Abdai, by the way. Let's talk basic human rights. I am

sure Mr vice president you have seen the shocking videos... Shocking. Of

what appear to be Iraqi forces executing men, we don't know who

they are, in Mosul after the end of the conflict. We've seen one graphic

video of an individual being thrown off a cliff and shot. How can the

Iraqi government allow this to happen, given the history of Iraq

over the last 15 years? Because this plays into more extremism. Because

this has gone out of the hands of the government. This has gone into

the militia ares and to the lawless people, and indeed to a government

that is unable to control the situation in Mosul. This is one I

refer to the collateral damage that has been happening. Let alone what I

have witnessed and seen myself, people living, displaced people,

living really beneath what animals live in Iraq. The UN has said the

humanitarian crisis in and around Loza today is so pressing... It is a

ticking bomb, it will explode in our face in future, I assure you. --

Mosul. There are thousands without parents, without families coming out

of tunnels and rooms in Mosul and no one it seems in your government has

a clue what to do with them. There is bitterness now amongst the

people. The people are quite bitter, especially the people who are living

in tents, who are refusing to go back to Mosul, people who have had

their parents to streak in the conflict, and people who are left in

the shelters. There is bitterness there and it will only increase with

time, and it will be an exploding bomb. This is what nobody looked at.

The humanitarian side. I keep reminding myself you are the vice

president of the country. You may tell me that is meaningless, that

you are a figurehead. Or alternatively what on earth are you

doing about it? Because your government needs to be held to

account. Of course, I agree. And I have raised this issue in the

meetings with the Prime Minister and with the President, of course. And I

have been raising this issue in the media, and in the meetings, but

nothing is happening. They say the military conflict should take

precedence in the conflict. But the humanitarian issue is really very

bad. And, indeed, the political horizon of what may happen in future

is very bad. We have been talking for a few minutes and on every

aspect of what we discuss in Mosul and the security situation around

Mosul, you seem to be saying that the government you represent as vice

president is incapable of imposing its will and its authority. And is

actually stoking the flames of the conflict which, although we have

just seen Mosul "Liberated" in your view it is actually going to get

worse. Well, they don't want to see the reality, the government, they

don't want to see the humanitarian side, although they speak about it.

And they don't want to see the political side. But I am getting a

feeling that you are pretty powerless in this situation. On the

bigger picture, that of the militias and indeed the popular mobilisation

forces as well, we know that five of the largest of the popular

mobilisation forces, including the Badder brigade for example, they

have support, money and direct assistance from Tehran. Now, what

should be done about that? -- Badr. Well, that has always been a problem

for Iraq. And I want since a long time ago that Iran is moving

gradually, systematically to controlling the situation in Iraq.

You know, let me exclaimed one thing which is very important. The vice

president, the President, the president do not have any executive

powers. I am getting that feeling during this interview... It is more

or less protocol. Yes. And I joined them because of the reconciliation

process, which was undermined. To be blunt about it, you are there as a

figleaf. Yes, yes, yes. And they useful figleaf. As long as you sit

as vice president you are giving some sort of credibility to a

government which you appear to be saying, is in essence right now

being run by the Iranians. Not run completely by the Iranians but Iran

is making the macro and micro decisions. The macro decisions

started in 2010 when we won the elections and the United States

sided with the Iranians then. What colour you think the US and Iran

ensured that you, even though your coalition actually won the most

seats, you didn't take power, and you're saying it was the combination

of the United States and Iran... ? Air I made it clear that it would

run against Allawi, and the Americans were with this and this

was conveyed to us of course by Biden, the vice president of the

United States, that we are not ready to accept that, that Iran will

intervene in Iraq and we are going to pull out from Iraq, so we will

have to toe the rope with Iran. I mean, Prime Minister al Maliki

seemed close with Tehran. It always seemed Prime Minister al Abadi was

somewhat less beholden to Iran. He is, yes, but he is overpowered. By?

Iranian forces. Sylla money, who is sometimes seen on Iraqi territory,

he spends a great deal of time surgery Dick Lee planning Iran's

role. Tactically. We are talking about the command of the

revolutionary forces. He spends more time in Iraq and in Iran. The more

you tell me about what is happening in your country today as you see it,

the more I am thinking that any talk of Mosul's liberation being a

watershed moment, something Iraqis can hold onto as a sign that things

are going to and get better, it is wrong. I don't see this happening

personally. I called for political resolutions. That will lead to

equality in Iraq. I call that they should stop by -- bifercation, which

is happening these days. They should really take care of the displaced.

They should stop the... I spoke to the leaders of the liberation, by

the way, and I told them that the only person eligible is those who

joined the army and the police. Iraq should not have two parallel armies,

both for the mobilisation and in the ordinary army and police. And I told

this to Abadi and I said this to the media. But we don't have executive

powers. Even the president doesn't have executive powers. This is

contrary to the Constitution, by the way. The Constitution says that the

President, the presidency, should oversee the implementation of the

Constitution. If you are so concerned about these threats to

unity in Iraq, and the preponderance of militias and mobilisation units

in the end represent sectarian forces inside your country, why oh

why have you in recent weeks decided to throw in your lot politically

with Muqtada al-Sadr, one of the firebrand members of the political

situation? No, no, I never signed any political deal. But we are

trying to explore who is closest to us in terms of the basic issues in

Iraq. And so far he is the closest as far as the quality, as far as

anti- sectarian, as far as attacking Iran. But forgive me, Muqtada

al-Sadr is trusted by no one in the Sunni community and now you appear

with your party and your coalition intent on using him to try to win

power in the next Iraqi election. It is opportunism... No, no, no. I

haven't signed any agreement with him, believe me. I am saying is on

TV, open TV. I haven't signed any agreement. We are talking to all

parties in Iraq, Sunni, Shia, Baathist, believe me, we want to

forge any kind of coalition ultimately. We don't feel now is the

time for coalitions and definitely I don't feel that I am ready to force

agreements and coalition with any sectarian force at all. I am

secular. I am against sectarianism. I am against this and I am not going

to move away from this position at all.

Let's's talk about the Kurds. The Kurdish regional area. In just a

month or so, September 25, we are going to see a referendum organised

by the ruler of the Kurdish region. Yes or no to Kurdish independence.

It is predicted that the Kurdish people are going to vote yes. What

impact will that have on Iraq's chances of staying as a unitary

state? It would be dismantled completely. That is why I spoke to

some of those in Kurdistan who I am going to see once I get back to

Iraq. I think the referendum is pretty much sure. The dismemberment

of Iraq would makes the Kurds the losers in this case. Do you believe

that this referendum could hasten a future conflict between the Baghdad

government... Yes, it will, I am sure. Even the regional governments

and the Kurds. You mean war? Well, conflict... Taking it step-by-step.

There will be complex. I don't think any of the regions will acknowledge

this. Neither Iran or Turkey... It has been conveyed to me that Iran is

putting pressure, this was discussed last week, Iran is putting a lot of

pressure on the Kurds, because they don't accept what is happening. The

Iranian is, let alone the Kurds... Your message to the Kurds is, be

careful what you wish for? Yes, and rationalise even the question. This

is very important. One factor in all of these publications...

Self-determination is something in the nature of Iraq. Independence

from Iraq is something else. Really, the wording of the questions should

be very clear. One factor we have... This is what the Iraqi government

should focus on when they talk to Mosul. The referendum has to take

place. They cannot run away from this. But there is another way of

rationalising the issue of the referendum in the questioning. The

statement that should come out on this issue of the referendum, if

they continue this is to separate Iraq and Kurdistan, this is going to

be very bad for everybody in the region, not only Iraq. This is the

promises that have been laid down, I am not blaming anybody but powers

including the United States have a hand in this, when they occupied

Iraq... They dismantled the whole country. I was going to ask you

about the United States. One factor we have not discussed is the role of

the United States. President Trump, for the last six months in power in

Washington... Do you believe the Americans are actually understanding

just how dangerous the situation in Iraq is? I don't think they are

understanding, I don't think they want to understand. I think even be

a conflict on Isis, they were only thinking on the functionality side

of things. They wouldn't even look at how to prepare for post- Isis,

what to do in Mosul and elsewhere. America have a very distinct

imagination for the greater Middle East area. Donald Trump has made it

plain that as far as he is concerned, his primary focus and

responsibility is to destroy so-called Islamic State and protect

America from terrorism in Iraq, in Syria, and that is, beyond all else,

his objective. Fine, we don't dispute this. On the other hand, he

should take into account care of what is legal and political, as well

as... Taking care of Iraq and the future of Iraq, because after all,

they hold legal responsibility when they dismantle the country. Iraq

wanted US forces out, Obama withdrew all forces in 2011. Do you think

American forces me to come back? No, no, I am not suggesting this. I am

suggesting that the United States should have clear policies and they

need to advise the Iraqi government because they have a moral obligation

to do so -- need. They have a legal obligation to do so. They are

defending the United States in the world from Islamic State, but Iraq

is the theatre for this conflict. They need to be more careful and

work more clearly with the moral as well as the other obligations.

Talking about the moral obligations, have you met Donald Trump? Not yet.

You said not long ago, there is a vacuum in the overall leadership in

the world. Really pointing a finger at the Americans. Gas. You said the

Americans need to get back to their role as the international power.

Yes. I agree with this statement -- Yes. Not using the military. But to

exercise their political role as well as the military role. There is

a vacuum in the leadership. In world leadership. There is nothing. In the

end, you can't blame anybody else for the state of Iraq today. You and

your generation... I just want to develop the sport. We have spoken

several times and it seems your generation of Iraq, the post- Saddam

generation of Iraqi leaders, have failed to deliver stability, in

unity and the most basic security to the people of your country. I agree,

and this is not because of the fault of politicians only. It is the

dismantlement of the state, the institutions of the state of Iraq

that had to do with occupation. We are paying the price now. Not only

was Saddam overthrown, but the state of Iraq was overthrown. The army,

the security, the intelligence. The judiciary. The process of

political... Politicising the dismantling. There was a vacuum in

Iraq. We first spoke many years ago, and I wonder if we speak again in

ten years, you actually believe Iraq as we know it today will exist. We

have talked about your belief that Islamic State is not eradicated and

that the struggle will continue, and the Terror and the violence. We have

talked about the Kurds and your belief that there could be a

conflict looming with the Kurdish in the north of your country. Yes. Iraq

doesn't seem to have a viable future? For now, there is that

sense. But it is something that is changing in Iraq. The movement of

the people, talking to the clerics of the Shia and Sunni, they are

calling for a civic state, for dismantling sectarianism and moving

towards an equal citizenship. That is talk, and the reality on the

ground is that the sectarian militia, popular mobilisation

forces, these sad... The clerics are aware, this was due to be

mobilisation of people, millions went to the streets. -- these are.

This is change. This is very clear change. The government are starting

to impose these popular organisations. Other issues are not

being taken into account. But the mood of the populace has changed in

Iraq. This is what you should encourage. Ayad Allawi, we have to

end there, but thank you very much. Thank you.