Ibbo Mandaza - Zimbabwean Academic HARDtalk


Ibbo Mandaza - Zimbabwean Academic

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A navy spokesman says sounds picked

up by two search vessels earlier

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did not come from the submarine.

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They had been detected on the route

it would have taken.

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You are up-to-date. There is more to

come on BBC News. You are watching

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BBC News. Now it is time for

HARDtalk.

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Welcome to HARDtalk. I am Stephen

Sackur. After 37 years in power, it

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is perhaps not surprising that

Robert Mugabe cannot accept

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Zimbabwe's new reality. But no

amount of playing for time will save

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his presidency now. The Robert

Mugabe era is over. The question is

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what comes next. Will it be a

continuation of the oppressive rule

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of ZANU PF? Or will the politics of

the country open up in new and

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unpredictable ways? My guest is Ibbo

Mandaza, a former government

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official turned academic analyst.

Will Zimbabwe's current drama and

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well? -- end well? Ibbo Mandaza,

welcome to HARDtalk.

Thank you.

I

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just refer to this compelling drama

playing out in Harare. You have

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obviously just come from Harare in

the last few hours to talk to me.

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Can there are only be one ending,

that Robert Mugabe will be gone

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within days?

I don't know about

days, but certainly it is the end

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for him. Except now we have a

serious stand-off between him and

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his party.

Is it a serious

stand-off?

I think it is. It is a

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constitutional crisis. It appears to

me that Robert Mugabe seems to have

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the upper hand on the once

additional and legal side. It is

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quite obvious he has some of the

best legal minds around him.

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Clearly, his speech last night had

very cogent arguments, not to

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mention the fact that from the

outset, the military insisted that

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it was not a coup, although it is a

coup in my view. They also insists

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he is the head of state and the

commander-in-chief.

Yes. It is very

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hard to figure out precisely the

relationship between the senior

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military command and Robert Mugabe.

There they all were in that bizarre

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shot of the military chief sitting

next to Robert Lagarde they as he

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may be address to the nation.

Sceptics think that perhaps this is

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all being orchestrated and that army

command is quite happy for Robert

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Mugabe to go through the impeachment

process, because it legitimises the

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removal, it puts a veil of

constitutionality of the whole

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thing. Do you think that is true?

I

think so. But also, it appears to me

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events leading to the coup were

sparked by fear by the generals that

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they would be charged with treason.

And so it appears to me the first

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act was to pre-empt the heads of

state doing what he intended to do.

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It appears to me they did not have a

clear plan as to the outcome of the

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intervention. They thought it would

be a few days and Robert Mugabe

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would resign. He surprised them

clearly. They don't no what to do

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now.

Let's talk about the potential

for destabilisation, for undress,

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for violence. -- unrest. Some people

are saying this is a fragile moment

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for Zimbabwe. It is hard to see

where the violence would come from,

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because the only person it seems you

with really determined to defend

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Robert Mugabe's rights and interests

is Robert Mugabe himself. He does

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not seem to have any street presence

supporting his claim to stay in the

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job.

There are various constraining

factors for the military, but you

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are right there is a danger we could

have rogue elements within the

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military, within the whole veteran

association, who would want to push,

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as appears to be the case, Robert

Mugabe to resign, and if need be,

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even attack is person, break into

his "Blue Roof" so called, it could

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escalate.

Let me talk about what

Chris is saying, the Head of the

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Veterans' Association. This is a few

hours ago. We will organise a

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sitting and we will not leave Harare

until Robert Mugabe is gone. Would

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you worry if there is a sit-in

around the so-called Blue Roof, his

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residence?

As far as the events on

Saturday, the army did not allow the

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crowd near the area, let alone the

Blue Roof. It is clear the military

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are in charge of the whole process

so far, including the rally itself,

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including directing and organising

it. The military will want to play

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it constitutionally, legally, safe,

as far as possible, except if the

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stand-off is extended, as is

appearing to be the case, then they

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may resort to other means. They want

him to resign and he is refusing.

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You have more experience inside the

government as one of the top civil

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servant for you went into academia

and political commentary. I just

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wonder, when we are talking about

the Constitution and the impeachment

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process, just how important and how

durable and resilient is the

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Zimbabwean constitution, because the

issue is that he has ridden

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roughshod over it for many years. Is

a part of the political process to

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stick to the Constitution?

Yes,

except where it is done so

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expediently and conveniently. In

general, there is a very high

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disdainful constitutionalism, even

in the party itself. You can see it

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is very messy and tidy a process.

Right now, the committee met

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yesterday and voted to get Robert

Mugabe and everyone else out. And

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his speech last night wanted to

render that all illegal, saying he

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is ill in power. -- still. You have

a situation where the interpretation

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of the Constitution is left to

expedient subscription thereof.

I

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ask you at the beginning of there

was any doubt about the outcome and

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I was thinking about Robert Mugabe's

removal and you indicated it could

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take longer than you think. But

Robert Mugabe is ultimately going to

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have to go. Is there any doubt in

your mind that the successor will be

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the vice president briefly deposed

but now back, Emmerson? Is that

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going to be the outcome he will

succeed?

If the coup succeeds, yes,

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he will be in. If the coup and says

they intend it to end with Robert

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Mugabe leaving, it will have been

successful. If, as appears to be

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happening, there is a resort to

constitutional arguments and, more

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importantly, the intervention of

South Africans, it appears that they

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may find a solution, such as the

Governor of national unity, our

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group the Platform for Consensus

have been saying since last year

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when we saw this happening, a

national transitional authority, a

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non-partisan authority of

Zimbabweans who would take charge of

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the state for two years during which

time they would be political reform.

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But of course, that is a hard sell

from the very beginning because you

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have contending factors, both within

ZANU PF itself in the larger polity.

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Your message is that Emmerson taking

over would be bad for Zimbabwe?

Yes.

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That one faction in a factional

fight would be seen to be taking

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over will be seen as a coup. As far

as I am concerned, the solution is

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to transcend the ZANU PF faction, to

find someone within ZANU PF itself

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who was above the factions, and it

is difficult to find such a person,

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or a neutral factor altogether,

leading a transitional authority and

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transitional government.

But Ibbo

Mandaza, are you not part of the

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issue? You were once a loyalist of

the Maduru faction. You have had a

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stake in this yourself. That is why

he dislikes you, he sees you as

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someone who has always favoured his

opponent.

Well, I had a family

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relationship with the Madurus, both

in the late husband and herself.

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And, yes, I felt as a Zimbabwean

citizen that we were shortchanged in

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2014 when these purges began. She

was elected in 2004. She was a vice

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president in every sense of the

word. And in 2014, the vice

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president and others were rejected.

But my point is not so much about

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Joyce and what happened to her, we

interviewed her on this programme

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and frankly she does not amount to

much support these days. It is your

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message about factionalism. It is

interesting to see how anybody in

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Zimbabwe today could have any hope

that factionalism won't continue. It

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will be a dominant force. Emmerson

and the head of the military are

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clearly people who want to keep our

closely in the hands of those, you

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know, one could perhaps say old

cronies of Robert Mugabe are going

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all the way back in ZANU PF. It is

hard to see how that will not

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happen.

Is you're looking for a

solution mediate that difference,

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that is where some of us come in as

citizens. -- if. In retrospect, in

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hindsight, it is clear, as you are

correct, in your characterisation,

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that the military has always been

central right from the ceasefire in

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1980 with Maduru and on and on. It

is true the military has been

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central. Some of us as analysts have

been confused and lost the plot

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thinking he took control of the

military. Clearly he did not. This

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is becoming self-evident.

Let me

quote you. It is interesting what

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you are saying. The top branch of

the military have been extremely

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influential. Let's not forget that

Emmerson going way back was Minister

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of State security and ran the

intelligence operations as part of

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his ministerial duties. He

campaigned. He has a long record.

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And this is what one Western

diplomat said, if he takes over,

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this is far from being a brave new

dawn for Zimbabwe it. He is cut from

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the same cloth as Mugabe. Would you

agree with that?

Clearly, yes. His

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base at the moment is the military.

He is the most powerful person at

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the moment. And really, it appears

to be that the military wanted a

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civilian face. And he has been

chosen. It is difficult to make a

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distinction between the Mugabe

regime and the era he had and

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Emmerson and the military. They are

one and the same. This is a

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factional fight within ZANU PF

itself. Which party is completed

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with the state, really.

Going back

to instability, I want to quote to

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you one other person who has been

out on the streets, Linda, she is an

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activist, founder of the Zimbabwean

Women In Politics, she said she has

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waited all her life for Mugabe to

stand down, but now she is worried

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about what happens next. The

military is stepping in to resolve

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the factional fight and it has

nothing to do with reforming the

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country. You seem to be echoing that

very bleak sentiment.

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S

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with those sentiments. I agree

entirely. But we have to be

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realistic, we have to be political

and take into account the reality

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and see how we can work out of it to

a more positive scenario.

To be

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specific, what are you going to do?

Well, it is not me. What I will do,

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it is a question of, asked trying to

-- asked trying to leverage on the

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process, on the intervention, and

the need to mediate...

You keep

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talking about SADAC, we know the

South African government has taken a

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mild position, asking everybody to

please focus on following the

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Zimbabwean con situation. I can

quote you the president of Zambia,

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Edgar Lungu, who has actually said

that in his view, the military

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takeover reflects intervention and

meddling by western countries. He

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says Westerners are trying to

spearhead regime change, not just in

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Zimbabwe, but in Zambia, South

Africa and Malawi as well, and we

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won't let it happen. So I'm not sure

that African neighbours are of a

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mind to push the reform agenda. It

doesn't sound as though they are.

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Some of them sound like they are

quite tempted to defend Mugabe.

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Precisely. I think basically, a

successful cooing Zimbabwe would

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send the wrong message across the

region. -- coup in. The differences

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between the regimes in the region

are those of degree, rather than

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kind. You are talking about SADC,

SADC is normally lame but I think

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SADC has never been faced except for

Lzutu with a similar situation to

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this. It will be interesting to see

what SADC does tomorrow. I agree

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this will be based on self-interest

in parts of SADC and the South

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African state, rather than any

concentration such as that which

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Linda was referring to. What about

the international community more

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widely? I am intrigued by the notion

which I have read in some quarters

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which says that actually, the key

player in this is not any western

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country, the United States anybody

else. It is China. There is talk of

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a key meeting involving Mr Mnangagwa

and Mr Chiwenga, the head of the

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military, actually in Beijing. And

that the Chinese signed off on the

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move against Mugabe because China of

course has vast economic interest in

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Zimbabwe. Is China a big player, do

you think?

Yes, but I also know

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China as one who tries not to

interfere in internal politics,

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except in its own neighbourhood. So

I think that is mere speculation.

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There is no evidence to that effect.

Nor is there evidence that western

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countries have been directly

involved. There has always been

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speculation, of course, unconfirmed,

that Emmerson Mnangagwa and in this

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case, this military coup, would have

the support of the British or the

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dish intelligence services. Again,

that is speculation. So what's next,

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in your view? I imagine when we stop

talking you will be going very soon

0:18:020:18:06

back home to Harare, and you are

somebody who constantly speaks out

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for fundamental transformation in

Zimbabwe, getting away from what you

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call the factionalism, opening up of

six, bringing in a new generation,

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making the country more genuinely

free and democratic. -- opening up

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politics. How on earth, given the

nature of our conversation, do you

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believe you can play a role in that

happening?

Well, I am grateful that

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you give us the opportunity of this

important interview with a very

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influential programme like

HARDtalk...

Well, that is very

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flattering, but nonetheless, it is

just words. Long after you leave the

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studio you have to go home and

figure out how to change the

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situation on the ground.

Yes, I

cannot do it alone. We're working

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many other people. I made reference

to the PCC, the Platform for

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Concerned Citizens. We have

submitted a public document to be

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SADC Secretariat and to be Troika.

We did that through the South

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African government this afternoon.

So there are many efforts at home.

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There is representation by the

churches. There is a prominent

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clergyman who has been involved in

the negotiations between Mugabe's

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residence and the military had

offers. So there is a lot of stuff

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happening on the ground but we're

hoping that the SADC intervention,

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but also the international

community, I know that the western

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met yesterday to discuss the

Zimbabwe situation, and I also know

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that they are recommending a

government of national humidity. --

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western ambassadors met yesterday.

Which involves everybody, the other

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political parties as well. I think

they were all shocked yesterday with

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the statements which suggested that

this was an internal issue of

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ZANU-PF. I think the solution is to

have them transcend the ZANU-PF

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factionalism and have a national

dialogue and national process which

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includes everybody, at least as a

transitional authority, towards

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elections one or two years hence.

That is interesting. Yet a signal

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failure of you to mention Mr Changi

Wright and the Movement for

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Democratic Change, what has long

been the leading opposition party,

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suggests to me that you do not

really feel they could be serious

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agents of change. -- Mr Tsvangirai.

Maybe I am misleading you. Do you

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think Mr Tsvangirai has an important

role to play?

On the contrary, I

0:20:400:20:44

think all parties must be involved,

including Morgan Tsvangirai. You

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cannot ignore Morgan Tsvangirai in

any process in Zimbabwe, not least

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because he was shortchanged in 2008.

It is common knowledge now that

0:20:510:20:56

Morgan Tsvangirai won the election

in 2008. And it was this time Mr

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Mnangagwa and General Chiwenga who

took over, and one would say it was

0:20:590:21:04

a coup actually, in 2008, in the

form of the manipulation of the

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results, the subsequent run-off, and

how Mr Mugabe stayed in power. So

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Morgan Tsvangirai can not be

ignored, not at all, either as a

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person or in terms of his party.

We

have talked really politics in this

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interview. Let's end by thinking

about something else, just as. Do

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you think there is any possibility

that Robert Mugabe and people very

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close to him might be brought to

face justice for some of the things

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that happens under his command? His

rule of Zimbabwe? I am thinking in

0:21:420:21:49

particular of the mass killings that

we know happens in the early 1980s.

0:21:490:21:55

Is justice part of this, or not?

Well, one would hope for some kind

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of truth and reconciliation such as

we have in South Africa. But if it

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were to be revenge, that would

escalate things out of hand. The

0:22:080:22:11

human rights factor must be taken

into account. Yes, Mugabe, and those

0:22:110:22:18

persons, Mnangagwa and Chiwenga have

much to answer for, for the violence

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over the last 30 years, and to

periods which were punctuated by

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violence, not only them, but there

massacre of the earlier era which

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remained save them a shot at

history. But also subsequent

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killings at election time. In 2008

some 200 people perished. Yes, there

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will need to be a taking account of

all that, and one might even suggest

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we need to go back to be beginning

of the struggle, where there were

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many killings among ourselves, as

Zimbabweans. I think a truth and

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reconciliation commission is

something that might help to close

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the chapter on this sordid history

of hours.

A final thought, before we

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end. I was very struck by the joyous

scenes, frankly, which I saw from

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Harare and the mass demonstrations,

the people out on the streets on

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Saturday at the weekend in your

capital city. Are you feeling full

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of optimism, positivity, and maybe

even some joy at the thought of

0:23:220:23:28

Robert Mugabe's" right now? Or are

you actually feeling somewhat

0:23:280:23:33

alarmed and curvaceous about the

future of your country? -- alarmed

0:23:330:23:37

and trepidation as -- trepidatious.

They did so through the four days.

0:23:370:23:48

Prior to that the military were

acting on their own. There was not

0:23:480:23:52

the conventional mass reception of

the coup which you have seen in

0:23:520:24:01

other parts of Africa. I think

people are beginning to sober up and

0:24:010:24:05

realise there is something at the

heart of this which has to do with

0:24:050:24:09

the manner in which the system has

been run for the last two decades at

0:24:090:24:13

least.

Ibbo Mandaza, it is a

sobering thought to end on. Thank

0:24:130:24:17

you for joining me on HARDtalk from

Johannesburg.

Thank you very much,

0:24:170:24:21

Stephen.

0:24:210:24:24

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