Browse content similar to 14/07/2011. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: There has been a raft of new | :00:13. | :00:16. | |
economic data this week, capped today by a survey from the Scottish | :00:16. | :00:19. | |
Chambers of Commerce. Could they show that George Osborne's approach | :00:19. | :00:22. | |
to cutting the deficit is absolutely right? | :00:22. | :00:24. | |
Also tonight: BBC Scotland's Audience Council says the | :00:24. | :00:27. | |
corporation still doesn't really get the nations and regions. But | :00:27. | :00:33. | |
will anything be done about it? Good evening. If there is one thing | :00:33. | :00:35. | |
most Scottish politicians agree on, with the exception of Conservatives | :00:35. | :00:38. | |
of course, it is that George Osborne's economic strategy is | :00:38. | :00:41. | |
wrong. Both the SNP and Labour argue the Chancellor is cutting | :00:41. | :00:43. | |
public spending too far and too fast and jeopardising economic | :00:43. | :00:47. | |
growth. But could it be that a slew of recent data show that, actually, | :00:47. | :00:57. | |
:00:57. | :01:01. | ||
The Chancellor's plant is simple: British households have too much | :01:01. | :01:11. | |
:01:11. | :01:16. | ||
death -- debt, so cut public spending. And encouraged the old- | :01:16. | :01:23. | |
fashioned virtues of spending within our means, and do that and | :01:23. | :01:28. | |
the private sector will create jobs that will more than make up for | :01:28. | :01:32. | |
jobs that are lost and the public sector. It is at least arguable | :01:32. | :01:37. | |
that recent trends in the economy show that it is doing exactly what | :01:37. | :01:42. | |
it says on the 10. Take the unemployment figures. New data | :01:43. | :01:48. | |
showed unemployment in Scotland fell. But the number of jobs in the | :01:48. | :01:53. | |
economy rose by 20,000. The number of jobs across the UK rose by | :01:53. | :01:57. | |
50,000. Recent figures show that while public sector employment fell | :01:57. | :02:06. | |
by 8,000, total employment rose by over 40,000. Yesterday's figures | :02:06. | :02:12. | |
claimed employment rose by 50,000. Other figures also show the biggest | :02:12. | :02:22. | |
rise in -- Scottish manufacturing exports. It is true that today's | :02:22. | :02:27. | |
survey is a fall of agonising about the weak state of the economy. But | :02:27. | :02:35. | |
look at the detail. It said that exports and tourism are doing well. | :02:35. | :02:40. | |
The Warriors were in wholesale and retail, a confirmation of recent | :02:40. | :02:49. | |
awful statistics about Britain's shopkeepers. Any fiscal | :02:49. | :02:59. | |
:02:59. | :03:11. | ||
consolidation was banned to affect If we were to steer the economy | :03:11. | :03:16. | |
away from consumer debt, we would expect spending to fall as people | :03:16. | :03:18. | |
pay off their credit card and struggle to cope with those | :03:18. | :03:24. | |
mortgages. And having to do with pay rises which have been running | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
behind inflation. George Osborne always said he wanted to rebalance | :03:28. | :03:36. | |
the economy. He never claimed it would be a walk in the park. But, | :03:36. | :03:43. | |
what about the cuts in public services? Won't that knock the job | :03:43. | :03:52. | |
figures off? Maybe, but what if the government manages to cut public | :03:52. | :03:59. | |
sector pay in the real term? It is not clear that the cataclysm in the | :03:59. | :04:05. | |
public sector will ever happen. Here is what the finance secretary | :04:05. | :04:10. | |
had to say on the matter. largest reduction in public | :04:10. | :04:16. | |
expenditure that we have got to face, is the one for which I have | :04:16. | :04:26. | |
:04:26. | :04:30. | ||
set a budget. In that sense, I took exception. Back in February, I set | :04:30. | :04:34. | |
a budget that to reduce public expenditure in Scotland by �1.3 | :04:34. | :04:44. | |
:04:44. | :04:44. | ||
billion. The British economy grew by only 0.5% in the first quarter | :04:44. | :04:48. | |
of the year, an economist had been a falling over themselves to cut | :04:48. | :04:54. | |
back on their forecasts. Much of the growth and exports may be due | :04:54. | :04:57. | |
to devaluing the pound, rather than making industry more efficient for | :04:57. | :05:03. | |
the medium and long-term. Still, if it is putting it too strongly to | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
say that George Osborne has been vindicated, can you not at Easter | :05:07. | :05:13. | |
Monday benefit of the doubt? I'm joined now by John McLaren of | :05:13. | :05:16. | |
the Centre for Public Policy for Regions, and in Edinburgh by Bill | :05:16. | :05:22. | |
Jamieson of the Scotsman. Some of these figures do seem to | :05:22. | :05:31. | |
show that George Osborne has a point. We are still in a limbo | :05:32. | :05:41. | |
:05:42. | :05:42. | ||
period. We are not sure when the economy will grow or dip again. The | :05:42. | :05:50. | |
most positive thing that has happened is that... The performance | :05:50. | :05:59. | |
of the Labour market. Given the depth of the cuts and the economy, | :05:59. | :06:04. | |
usually unemployment rises much more. It has understand. It has | :06:05. | :06:10. | |
gone up a lot in America, but not so much here. That is probably a | :06:10. | :06:16. | |
combination of factors, like more people doing part-time jobs. Also, | :06:16. | :06:22. | |
wage rises are less this time round than in previous recessions, which | :06:22. | :06:27. | |
means you do not have to cut so many jobs. In previous recessions, | :06:27. | :06:33. | |
wages had been rising too quickly. That is something that is positive, | :06:33. | :06:41. | |
and we will have to keep that going. The big if is still what happens | :06:41. | :06:47. | |
with GDP. Where will the growth come from? There are still a lot of | :06:47. | :06:55. | |
issues about the output gap is smaller than expected. There is | :06:55. | :07:01. | |
less of growth. This is the gap of the platform as the economy, and | :07:01. | :07:10. | |
what it would be doing if it was growing normally. Yes. Then, if you | :07:10. | :07:16. | |
are looking at exports, you have these huge uncertainties in the US | :07:16. | :07:23. | |
about the level of its deficit and the housing market. I want to stick | :07:23. | :07:31. | |
to Britain. Jim, I do not think that is a hip hip hooray from John. | :07:31. | :07:36. | |
Yes, and did extend beyond the Labour market figures, which have | :07:36. | :07:42. | |
been better than expected. The Scottish government have been very | :07:43. | :07:46. | |
assiduous in filling up my e-mail in box over the past few days with | :07:47. | :07:54. | |
this good news. Excellent news on employment, unemployment down by | :07:54. | :08:01. | |
11,004 stop they look encouraging news about manufacturing exports. A | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
very upbeat survey from the Bank of Scotland which came out earlier | :08:04. | :08:10. | |
this week about private sector growth. The sixth consecutive month | :08:10. | :08:18. | |
of growth and the private sector. You have to ask, what is the case | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
for Plan B? It seems to me that here in Scotland, so far, plan is | :08:22. | :08:32. | |
:08:32. | :08:35. | ||
working. You are talking about this as Labour's argument. If you | :08:36. | :08:41. | |
publicised it, it would spooked the market so badly it would be better | :08:41. | :08:48. | |
off not having one. Absolutely. You do not have to look far to see the | :08:48. | :08:55. | |
apprehension over deficits and debt. Let us stick to Britain, again. | :08:55. | :09:00. | |
What is your answer to this basic point that some of these figures, | :09:00. | :09:08. | |
honesty there are question marks. George Osborne cannot say, it is | :09:08. | :09:14. | |
not certain yet, GDP growth is weak, but the figures we have seen to | :09:14. | :09:23. | |
show I am right, he would save. so far. There is a lot of | :09:23. | :09:28. | |
apprehension about how sustainable this is. If you look at some of the | :09:28. | :09:33. | |
data coming in in recent weeks, it is not good. There is a slowdown in | :09:33. | :09:38. | |
the manufacturing sector and the service sector. All of the | :09:38. | :09:41. | |
forecasters are tumbling over themselves to cut growth forecast. | :09:41. | :09:47. | |
There is an issue about how sustainable this is. But George | :09:47. | :09:52. | |
Osborne's point was third it was not just a question of GDP growth. | :09:52. | :09:58. | |
They had to be a rebalancing of where growth came from, and what | :09:58. | :10:01. | |
I've tried to say there was the what we are seeing, you would | :10:01. | :10:07. | |
expect to see. You would expect to see consumer spending falling, | :10:07. | :10:12. | |
mortgage lending falling, in an economy where you are trying to | :10:12. | :10:15. | |
rebalance from an excessive reliance on government and consumer | :10:15. | :10:21. | |
debt, to end economy based more manufacturing and exports. | :10:21. | :10:27. | |
absolutely correct. This is part of the solution, and not part of the | :10:27. | :10:33. | |
problem. However, the trap that George Osborne is in here, you to | :10:33. | :10:39. | |
bed down on the consumer sector. You are hitting two thirds of the | :10:39. | :10:45. | |
UK economy, and it makes growth very difficult. A should be week -- | :10:45. | :10:50. | |
should we be refraining this argument? Critics of George Osborne | :10:50. | :10:56. | |
said he would drive the economy into a double dip recession. That | :10:56. | :11:03. | |
looked unlikely, even buy them. Isn't the real argument not that | :11:03. | :11:08. | |
there will be a recession, but with different policies you could have | :11:09. | :11:14. | |
faster growth, cut the deficit quicker, and people suffering by | :11:14. | :11:18. | |
having their income is cut would not have their income is cut as | :11:18. | :11:27. | |
fast, or even a tall? I do not been there is a huge distance between | :11:27. | :11:34. | |
the two approaches. It is basically a matter of timing. Ed Balls wants | :11:34. | :11:39. | |
to do more slowly, to make sure recovery is more in place. George | :11:40. | :11:45. | |
Osborne is more concerned about getting the deficit down. I do not | :11:45. | :11:50. | |
think they are that wildly far apart. One is an saying we should | :11:50. | :11:57. | |
do it through tax increases rather than expenditure cuts. They both | :11:57. | :12:07. | |
:12:07. | :12:07. | ||
have the same concerns. What about those other argument, public sector | :12:07. | :12:11. | |
cuts have not taken effect yet. When they do, people will lose | :12:11. | :12:20. | |
their jobs. It is true that in that interview, shortly after the clip, | :12:20. | :12:24. | |
there would be a problem and a couple of years' time when he could | :12:24. | :12:32. | |
not cut public sector pay any further. The fact is, this was the | :12:32. | :12:38. | |
most difficult year, and he has managed to drop the budget. Because | :12:38. | :12:42. | |
public sector pay such a large proportion, if you freeze it, you | :12:42. | :12:52. | |
:12:52. | :12:54. | ||
do not need to do they not have these things. Part of the reason is | :12:54. | :13:01. | |
that things like reducing capital spending in the Scottish water-0, | :13:01. | :13:08. | |
that has to come back. That was a delaying tactic for a while. You | :13:08. | :13:17. | |
have also got the wage freeze reverses non wage freeze. If that | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
starts to rise, you have got to find that extra money. You have got | :13:21. | :13:25. | |
other things like high education, where we know they will be a large | :13:25. | :13:35. | |
:13:35. | :13:36. | ||
gap. That has got to be found as well. This year, higher education | :13:36. | :13:42. | |
or ready to go a very large hit. There hasn't been an uproar about | :13:42. | :13:49. | |
that. There have been difficult things, but there is not a feeling | :13:49. | :13:54. | |
like we saw in the '80s, partly because unemployment has not grown | :13:54. | :14:03. | |
as much. What do you make about this point about public spending? | :14:03. | :14:10. | |
Is and cutting public spending a bit like that? In reality, deep | :14:10. | :14:16. | |
whole thing is a lot more fungible than was being made out. It isn't | :14:16. | :14:26. | |
:14:26. | :14:30. | ||
the case that we will have mass I would not really agree with you | :14:30. | :14:40. | |
:14:40. | :14:42. | ||
as regards landfill stop however, much more gradually. Not any big- | :14:42. | :14:52. | |
:14:52. | :14:52. | ||
bang way. I think there is very little net at recruitment going on | :14:52. | :14:59. | |
in the public and private sector. This reference to natural wastage, | :14:59. | :15:06. | |
where people leave jobs and retire, back to be put through without the | :15:06. | :15:15. | |
draconian measures that people feared a year ago. The wall premise | :15:15. | :15:20. | |
of George Osborne strategy was that if we do not do this, there will be | :15:20. | :15:24. | |
a hit in the bond market and we could end up, if not quite like | :15:24. | :15:34. | |
Greece, been heavily penalised. There was actually 0 evidence of | :15:34. | :15:40. | |
bond rates spiking under Labour or under the Coalition. Do you think | :15:40. | :15:47. | |
there was a very serious danger of Britain getting into trouble? | :15:47. | :15:56. | |
I think there was. It was very important that we had a Coalition | :15:56. | :16:06. | |
:16:06. | :16:06. | ||
and Broughton a national party to address a record level of debt. I | :16:06. | :16:12. | |
would say it is very dangerous to assume that the markets will give | :16:12. | :16:17. | |
you a freak pass. You only need to look at what is happening across | :16:17. | :16:23. | |
Europe. Who would have thought a few weeks ago that Italy would be a | :16:23. | :16:30. | |
target? But now it is. The we will have to leave it there. Thank you | :16:30. | :16:33. | |
both very much. Now, as the roof has been falling | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
in on the Murdoch empire, another area of the media has been under | :16:37. | :16:39. | |
scrutiny here. The Audience Council, an independent group which advises | :16:39. | :16:42. | |
the BBC Trust in Scotland, issued a report saying there is a continuing | :16:42. | :16:45. | |
failure of the London-based network to reflect anything much wider than | :16:45. | :16:48. | |
a South of England perspective. Can a national broadcaster ever truly | :16:48. | :16:58. | |
:16:58. | :17:02. | ||
cover such a diverse country? Derek Bateman reports. Is the BBC news | :17:02. | :17:09. | |
centre Don England? Tonight at 10, or Rupert Murdoch is forced to drop | :17:09. | :17:16. | |
his bid to get full control of BSkyB eat. Does it fail to cover | :17:16. | :17:26. | |
:17:26. | :17:28. | ||
the whole of the United Kingdom? is 6 o'clock. Good morning. His | :17:28. | :17:36. | |
Radio 4 changes to England, but at the South of England? They are so | :17:36. | :17:40. | |
weak, the Audience Council for Scotland, which advises the BBC | :17:40. | :17:46. | |
Trust, says it feels there is a bias of the BBC towards the south | :17:46. | :17:56. | |
:17:56. | :18:07. | ||
A I think we have been short- changed. What we look to do was | :18:07. | :18:13. | |
just to have Scottish Ministers consulted. Right now, the BBC | :18:13. | :18:16. | |
governors do not even need to speak to Scottish Ministers and I think | :18:16. | :18:21. | |
we have to start a set-up of consultations and the need to be | :18:21. | :18:29. | |
involved in that process. It is important the Scottish government | :18:29. | :18:32. | |
is involved when critical decisions are being made about BBC | :18:32. | :18:39. | |
programming. If that a surprise that the BBC coverage may be skewed | :18:39. | :18:49. | |
:18:49. | :18:53. | ||
in one direction? It has to be said that there must be impossible for | :18:53. | :18:58. | |
everywhere from Shell went down to the Lands End can be cover done | :18:58. | :19:06. | |
every bulletin. It is speaking predominently to an English | :19:06. | :19:10. | |
audience and I think the challenge is to get more Scottish related | :19:10. | :19:16. | |
content which is relevant to people in England. But that is a very | :19:16. | :19:25. | |
difficult thing to do. Is one answer that the BBC has BBC | :19:25. | :19:31. | |
Scotland services? The answer from London may be, if you want local | :19:31. | :19:40. | |
radio, tune into BBC Radio Scotland. Yes, I think there is some merit in | :19:40. | :19:46. | |
that. A lot of people in England are completely unaware of stories | :19:46. | :19:52. | |
which are going on in Scotland, but there are issues such as education | :19:52. | :19:56. | |
and health and in the political sphere which need to resonate | :19:56. | :20:06. | |
:20:06. | :20:11. | ||
across the United Kingdom audience. There is more current affairs | :20:11. | :20:15. | |
programming in Scotland and Scottish content, including his | :20:15. | :20:22. | |
comedy and drama spreading across the UK. The pleasing audiences in | :20:22. | :20:28. | |
every corner of a diverse nation may even be an order beyond the | :20:28. | :20:32. | |
capabilities of Gary, tank commander. | :20:32. | :20:36. | |
That is nearly all for this week. Before we look at the papers, I | :20:36. | :20:39. | |
would like to apologise for an inadvertant mistake on last night's | :20:39. | :20:41. | |
programme. In our report on the Chinook pilots, | :20:41. | :20:44. | |
we used an image of service personnel who had died in a | :20:44. | :20:48. | |
different air crash. Our sincere apologies for that. The correct, | :20:48. | :20:51. | |
complete version of that report is on the BBC Scotland news website, | :20:51. | :20:54. | |
as is the complete version of our other film last night, about | :20:54. | :20:55. | |
relations between press and politicians. | :20:55. | :21:03. | |
Now a quick look at tomorrow's newspaper front pages. In the | :21:03. | :21:08. | |
Independent, Murdoch hit by eight f p and a hacking inquiry. In the | :21:08. | :21:15. | |
Guardian, the former News of the World executive arrested work for | :21:15. | :21:25. | |
Scotland Yard. The Financial Times warns of the bail-out in past. That | :21:25. | :21:35. | |
:21:35. | :21:51. | ||
is all we have time for this week. In the West, it is a much gloomier | :21:51. | :22:00. | |
prospects for most of us. Across north-east England, a lot of places | :22:00. | :22:08. | |
look and sunshine. A top temperature of 25 degrees Celsius | :22:08. | :22:12. | |
around the London area. As you can see, these outbreaks of rain are | :22:12. | :22:20. | |
pushing their way and across Devon and Cornwall and in to the west of | :22:20. | :22:26. | |
Wales. For a bright day on Thursday, it is all change for Northern | :22:26. | :22:31. | |
Ireland tomorrow. There will be heavy rain and drizzle on and off | :22:31. | :22:39. | |
for most of the country during the day. Into the weekend, it is cooler | :22:39. | :22:48. | |
and times wetter and windier. Heavy showers expected on Saturday. But | :22:48. | :22:53. |