03/11/2011 Newsnight Scotland


03/11/2011

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Italy it will blow of the world financial system. Thank you. --

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blow up the world financial system. Tonight on Newsnight Scotland one

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of the Scottish Government's key policies has come under attack for

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the second time in as many days. After Citigroup raised concerns

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about renewable energy yesterday, today it is the turn of engineers

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to question whether Government targets can be met.

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And in a week of mud-slinging and name-calling, we ask why Scottish

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politics seems to have turned nastier than usual.

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An oil industry consultant in Aberdeen has said that the North

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Sea could still be worth hundreds of billions of pounds if the

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Government gets its act together. That will presumably have cheered

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up the Government in a week that has seen two other reports

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undermining their strategy for renewable energy. Opposition

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parties have been quick to stress the problems.

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The SNP won the election on a promise of a target that by the

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year 2020, Scotland would be producing enough renewable

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electricity to match what it consumes. Today the Institution of

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Mechanical Engineers has published its major concerns over the

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renewables target. It says the reliance on wind-power would for

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Scotland reimport energy from England and Northern Ireland went

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the wind is not blowing. -- When the wind is not blowing. This would

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cost millions of pounds, pushing up bills and forcing people into fuel

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poverty. They also claimed the policy is not based on any

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published strategy or engineering analysis of what is physically

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needed to meet the 2020 target. The report is the second attack this

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week on one of the SNP Government's flagship policies. Analysis from

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city group warned companies to exercise extreme caution before

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investing in renewables in Scotland well uncertainty remains over

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independence. The consumer would have to pay enormous subsidies for

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renewables which are spread across the rest of the UK at the moment.

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City group says that a hike will amount to �800 per year. The SNP

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have rejected both reports and Iain Gray has accused the Government of

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misleading the country. It is clear that the uncertainty created by a

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referendum will damage the economy of this country. Firstly, the

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report ignores the reality. The reality is that investment is

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happening now. In the context of a live independence debate. And the

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second false assumption, that somehow after independence the rest

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of the UK will no longer buy its Scottish energy is absolute

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nonsense. The future may not be green but everyone is determined to

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make political capital out of issues which might strictly

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speaking appear to be technical. Earlier I spoke to Professor Stuart

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Cameron, Vice President of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers.

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And in Aberdeen, the Energy Minister Fergus Ewing. I began by

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asking the professor why he thought the Government targets were not

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plausible. Our concern is how to achieve it in that time frame. We

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have been looking at it. You say that there has been extensive

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building on wind farms and so on. They have been in locations where

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there are relatively small turbines. They are now at the stage when

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there are larger wind turbines, going offshore, going into

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technology which is that the development stage just now, several

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years before it can be implemented. To increase it fivefold, from the

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current investment, is a very difficult target to achieve, both

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in terms of the engineering requirements and in terms of

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manufacture, infrastructure, and the National Grid. I think that is

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recognised. We have looked at the route map that has been produced

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for renewables. That is a top-level document. What we are saying is

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that they need to go to the next level, it to say, look, let's do

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some proper engineering, some rigour, to look at these actual

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achievements. Then we can look at where we are going to. The gist of

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that is that your targets are more hope than expectation. Our targets

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are ambitious, yes, but we believe they are achievable. So do a great

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number of experts, including engineers such as Professor Jim

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McDonald, he chairs the Energy Advisory Board with the first

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minister. And other practitioners as well. We can talk names, but a

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lot of Stuart Cameron's members are companies and people that build

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this stuff. You can talk names but the substance of the issue is that

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they are saying that you have not produced any detailed engineering

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plans to show how you are going to achieve these goals. May I say

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where we stand at the moment, Gordon? Where we stand at the

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moment is that one third of our capacity is renewables. If you

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consider those renewable applications, constructed or

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consented, that takes us to 60%. And if you consider those that are

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planned, in the pipeline, that takes us up to 17 gigawatts,

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roughly three times more energy than is consumed in Scotland. I

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know we have got a long way to go and we work with and we want to

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work with technical experts such as Professor Cameron. I would be very

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happy if the Institute wish to meet with us to engage with them on this.

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But we believe that we have a deliverable plan already. OK...

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are intent on succeeding. What is wrong with that, in your view?

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guarantee that we support that and our institution would be more than

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happy to do so. Do you dispute the figures that he has just outlined?

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That something like 80% is already in the bag? It is in the pipeline.

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What has been achieved today has been relatively easy to achieve.

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The latter part, in terms of going offshore with larger turbines, the

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whole maintenance issues, to a certain extent it is unproven in a

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harsh environment. Yes, we agree with the initial figures, where we

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have got to today. I would call it the Low Hanging fruit. The wind

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farms have been located in easier places. You are also making a

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stronger point. Far from Scotland being self-sufficient in terms of

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renewables, actually over the next 10 years or so it will become a net

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importer of power of electricity from England. That is because you

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need a base load. We all recognise and accept that there are days when

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the winds do not blow. Therefore the availability for a wind farm is

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somewhere between 0% and 100%. In reality it is probably about 25-30%.

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That is the experience of Germany and Denmark. Hang on. Being a net

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importer is a long way from what you want to see. We are an exporter

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and we will continue to export. Our target is not that we produce all

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of the electricity in Scotland. All of electricity generated should be

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generated from renewable sources. Our target is that the electricity

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that we can sue in Scotland should be produced from renewable sources.

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-- that we consume. We want to produce twice as much as that.

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Professor Cameron is absolutely correct in saying that we will

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continue to need conventional power sources. We are supportive of that.

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I engage regularly, as they did today, with the gas network. I

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spoke at a hydropower conference today. �100 million of investment

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is being held up because of delays by Westminster. So there is a

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balance. You cannot both be right. Yes, we are in net exporter

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currently. But between now and 2020, one of the power stations will be

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decommissioned. So we will be left with a gas-fired plant, hopefully,

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or whatever, and the one at Peterhead. If you take them out of

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the equation, what we are exporting right now is primarily the

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electricity it from the Totnes power station. If we are only left

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with that gas-fired plant and the one at Peterhead, and if you go

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from zero to 100% for renewables, the converse of that is that when

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you have no wind blowing and it is 0%, you need 100% base load from a

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conventional plant, or nuclear. We achieve that just now. By 2020

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there needs to be another plant or a nuclear plant, either of which

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would take five for seven years to come into fruition. Can I answer

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that? Briefly because I want to move on. We accept that there must

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be a base load. We reckon that looking to 2020, we would need four

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gigawatts. I am on record as saying that the case for existing power

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stations is strong and we will need it to keep the lights on. I have

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also said that if the nuclear power stations, in particular the one you

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are alluding to, which may have a life until 2030, providing the case

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is made on economic grounds, we will not stand in the way. There

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does need to be a variety because wind power Mr is intermittent.

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have just said a word that we do not hear on this programme!

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hear something new every day. As I do when I engage with people like

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Professor Cameron. We are working with everyone in the industry in a

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positive way to achieve our targets. As we believe, as many other

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experts in the industry believe, they are ambitious but achievable.

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I just want to move on briefly and get your response to the other

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stuff that has happened this week. That is the report by city group.

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In terms of price, the entire renewable energy in Britain depends

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on the renewable obligation certificates effectively subsidised

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by the consumer. If you have an independent Scotland it ceases to

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be viable. The cost, spread across UK consumers, would be financed by

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Scottish consumers and state aid. We believe that that is flawed,

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because it fails to recognise the facts. The facts are that over the

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last 12 months we have seen investment of �750 million in

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renewable projects. And we have got... I understand that. There

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point was that if Scotland became independent they would not be

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guaranteed to be part of the national grid of Britain. There

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point was that uncertainty is created by the fact that we are

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proposing to have a referendum. If that was correct, then so is

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everybody has known in Scotland about our plans for a referendum

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for the last five years, why on earth would there have been �750

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million of investment in renewable energy in this country? They can't

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have it both ways. It is not just the past investment. It is the

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future investment. Up to �46 billion of investment in renewable

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projects is in the pipeline, including 10 gigawatts of offshore

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wind which is 1.5 times the energy consumed in Scotland. Scotland is a

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great place to invest. Some people disagree but billions of pounds of

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investors' agree. Briefly, is it a concern to you and your members at

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the prospect of independence could cause uncertainty? We look purely

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from one engineering focal point in terms of saying what engineering

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capability is required. Whether there is an independent Scotland or

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not, the same technical issues remain. Thank you very much.

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This week we have had name-calling, misquotes, insults, public

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ecologies and even a surreal cartoon of Alex Salmond as an

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Arabian camel herd of. -- public apologies. Some of this would not

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be out of place in the playground. What has been going on?

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This is the ritual Dictionary from 1755. Febrile. From spirits

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employee did in blood and turgid and affected by the fermentation. I

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think he is getting over-excited. Before the members were workshy and

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paid for nothing, the evidence points to the opposite. In recent

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times they have not stopped and never been so busy not to say

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febrile and revealing their worst side. Their behaviour has been

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closer to the playground than parliamentary chamber. The economy

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is in the red and the pension is disappearing, if not your job. AC

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in army is a waiting in the Eurozone and something else. You

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are heading for an independence referendum. What are the MPs and

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MSPs up to? We had an apology for an insulting Liberal Democrat Cup

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team. Apologies for a misleading view about an academic. Eight

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Labour MP warned a woman that she would be in trouble and a

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researcher apologised for going over the top in an e-mail claiming

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misogyny. Who could forget the speech here? You will be attacked.

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You will be spared. You will be like about and you will be

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threatened. Sneer. To spread an oily, greasy or white substance

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oboe something to sell it by all soil a reputation. But why is this

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going on? Is it just displacement activity? Hartley 8 loss.

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referendum campaign has kicked off and people are getting very nervous

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about it. The opposition are not going for the tactic of jumping on

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the second questioned. Independence is not going up in the polls the

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way they would like and the opposition are getting nervous. The

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referendum campaign has kicked off. People are on the doorstep and the

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opposition party did not have leaders and understand what they

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are saying. Plenty of tension at the moment. Is it just the heat is

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being turned up and they do not know how to respond? There are high

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stakes. Stick your head under the covers and it will all passed to

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the next phase of the campaign. They will stop saying, he is not

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being very nice and I do not like have. We will get to the substance

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but we are in that fake area. People are up tight and nervous.

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They have got this visceral hatred between Labour and the SNP. Now and

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again with events, it does bubble to the surface and it is an ugly

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stain in politics and it puts the public offer. -- off. The last

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thing we need is for leaders to become upset, confused, bewildered,

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I'm joined now by the political analyst, Gerry Hassan. Why is

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everything nasty in your view? we take Labour and the SNP into

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part of Scottish culture, we have had a bad history. Hatred ever

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since 1967. People look at that and they say that it is ingrained.

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There is a vociferous hatred. A even visceral hatred?! We have to

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look at the wider context. We do not do this very well in like that.

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We deal with people different from ourselves. Is it a narrow political

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thing? We have got that you among Labour people that the nationalists

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are not a political party in the ordinary sense. They want to break

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up Britain. You do not deal with them like the Tories. In a way that

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is a specific thing about Scottish politics and not a broader thing

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about culture. I think it is about how we categorise and label people.

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It goes across society and culture and football. But we have got

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something specific in the relationship. My argument would be

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whatever they do, the Labour hatred goes deeper from top to bottom.

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They were the dominant party for years and they were threatened.

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This seems illegitimate to them. The first rule of conflict is

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understand and empathise the enemy. Do not apologise but they have not

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got t first base. What would count as getting to first base? They are

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not that different from Labour. The conventional argument is that they

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are not that different. But it is much deeper. The Labour view of the

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SNP and the wider cultural points are complicated. We have got hatred

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on bedside, like Celtic and Labour -- Rangers. We have got a lot of

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sinners and not many saints. Is it a lack of balance? We talk about

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top-to-bottom hatred. We have got the support of people loving

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conspiracy theories. But does the SNP leadership not have the same

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attitude towards Labour has Labour do to them? I think that is right

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on evidence. If we look at Ian Gray and Ian Davidson. The concept of

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separation does not help anybody. Who is in favour? Many nationalists.

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Alex Neil or Kenny MacAskill were the last politicians. They are

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either brilliant actors or it is genuine. We have got hatred in part

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of the movement. Look at institutions like the BBC and the

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press. It is not very helpful. want to tell me the much broader

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cultural issue and I will not deny you the opportunity. I think we

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have got something deep about difference and having lots of

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problems with that. We can see that in football, gender and sexuality

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and lots of things where people stand out and have a problem.

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do you mean people that stand out? To people operate differently? What

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about that Japanese phrase about the male getting hammered down? I

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did not think we have at here. -- the nail. The politics we are

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talking about... We are questioning that. We genuinely tend to get

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criticism. We are coming to terms with things like gender and

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sexuality. Issues that other sides deal with it more easily.

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Sectarianism as well. We have got a very fraught debate and we are not

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getting to the issues. But Scotland is a civil society might England.

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It is not. -- like England. We have got a much more drink orientated

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culture. We have got to deal with these issues and we want to tell

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each other comforting stories about ourselves. But with all that venom,

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it disguises the fundamentals. will have to leave if there. We

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will look at the front pages and will look at the front pages and

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start with the Scotsman... This is about British funding for the

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Eyemouth which could go to the you resent. -- the International

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Monetary Fund. -- the Eurozone. Chaos in the Guardian. The

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