11/09/2012 Newsnight Scotland

deny Ron Dearing. Tonight on Newsnight Scotland:

Is the slump in the housing market now a problem for society and not

just the economy? What's your house for? A place to call home or an

And how good was that? Andy Murray crowns a fantastic few months for

Scottish sport. But how long can we keep on feeling good? Well, maybe

the football team's done for it already.

First, a senior spokesman for the European Commission has said that

if part of an EU member state became independent, it wouldn't

automatically remain a member of the European Union. Olivier Bailly

was answering questions in Strasbourg about independence

demonstrations held in Catalonia in Spain today. He appeared to suggest

that an independent Scotland would have "to make a request for

accession." Here's what he had to say.

There's no provision regarding aid region of a member state. If one

region of any member state would want in the future to make a

separation for its member states and to apply to EU membership, we

will then have to be dealt with its by international law.

What it means if there is a referendum in Scotland of Catalonia

the day after this region, is it inside or outside? Or are they know

where? All that is a speculative scenario.

We get regular questions on the different speculations with

different regions in Europe. If you want to apply for EU membership,

this will have to be done according to the treaties and the provision

regarding accession. So they are two different steps. There's

accession and the request for accession to EU member state. In

the meantime, this new treaty is not part of the EU, since it has to

make a request for accession. That was Olivier Bailly, a European

Commission spokesman responding earlier today in Strasbourg to

questions about the mechanics of how an independent Scotland,

Catalonia or somewhere else inside the EU might join the club. The

BBC's political correspondent Niall O'Gallagher broke the story and

joins us now. The point is that this is not what

the Scottish government has been saying.

It is still what they are not saying tonight. The argument has

been that Scotland, in the event of a Yes vote for independence,

remains within the European Union. Scotland is already part of the EU,

and they are saying that they would stay inside the European Union of

Scotland voted for independence. But that is clearly an issue at

odds with what this man has been saying today. The questions were

raised on the day when Catalonia celebrated their national day, and

there was a big demonstration there. This was the stronger statement yet

on this issue. Yes, but also the president spoke

about this last week and was more mealy mouthed.

In May the point that Scotland's future would have to be negotiated.

-- he made the point. But he was not specific on whether Scotland

would be in or out at the start. This is not about whether Scotland

would be allowed to be part of the EU. Instead, it is about how that

might happen and what kind of conditions might be attached to it.

It follows the controversial issue of legal advice this could his

government has received or not deceived. There was a request

resulting in them being asked to Who is this chap question mac he is

a spokesman for the European Union on growth. He released a statement

at the weekend. Why does this matter? It is partly about whether

Scotland would be automatically part of the European Union, but

there are other issues about conditions. It is the euro. The

treaty makes it a condition for a new members to join the European

Union, and that has not always happened. Sweden joined in 1995 and

never joined the euro. The Scottish Government's preferred situation is

that it does not arise, because they opted out. It clearly hits a

nerve, because the Scottish Government made the point about the

pound. That is correct, they give a cast-iron guarantee that Scotland

would keep the pound after independence. That has been one of

the massive issues in Parliament. Until now, the European Commission

has kept above the fray. What is the point of order in your own

home? Millions do, many want to join them but find it increasingly

difficult. A new survey says the average Scot does not expect to be

able to buy their own home until they are 40. The Scottish

Government will be announcing a new scheme for first-time buyers to

help boost the housing market. She came to power with a vision, it was

not much aimed at Scotsman. But they love the bet about buying your

own council house. I like this area are very much, the neighbours are

respectful. In 1986, she came here to meet the young family. They were

the one million family that bought their home. The policy transformed

the housings market and society. Paul Warner should have risen from

36% to 65%. -- hormone a shed. If you got on the ladder it seemed to

go on forever. -- warning neurone I do not want there to be any doubt

that I am extremely sorry. House prices have fallen by 11% across

Scotland and that is not counting inflation. The market remains

static, owners are not selling, and first-time buyers, even if they get

credit, can save for the deposit for years. Is that bad state of

affairs or is it normal? Has the private sector replaced social

housing? What is posing for? Our roof over our heads or economic

investment? Cannot be both? I am joined by Professor Douglas

Robertson. Malcolm Cannon also joins me. I am curious about the

social effects of the slump in the housing market. The people that

would like to sell their house, that have withdrawn them from the

market because they do not accept what they will get, what happens to

them? Are there issues of mobility? They could rent a house out and

read another house, we have seen a massive increase in renting, 30% of

people under the age of 34 are renting privately. That is at

transformation, incredible transformation. We're dealing with

a very difficult -- different housing market, where 10% of the

population in housing have increased. Most people would be

shocked if they thought local authority housing was the same as

the private sector. Owner- occupation is in decline.

Presumably people will not sell but rent because they still believe the

never-ending growth in house prices in the UK is simply having had

temporary interruption and they can come back later? Most people

assumed the post became worth more as opposed to the building society

and mortgage industry creating the man so the prices increased. --

creating demand. We lived with the delusion that they would never

decrease. That illustrates the final points. Malcolm Cannon, what

about first-time sellers? There was research done by Lloyds TSB

recently which show that they need to pay more of a multiple of their

salary to move up the ladder than first-time buyers to get onto it.

Presumably what we thought of 10 years ago as a natural progression

is stopping. I'm not sure I understand the question. People

were used to buying a house and then another when they are more, a

first-time sellers are finding it difficult to do that. That

presumably means the escalator effect of a housing market is

stopping. I think it has slowed down but not stop. There is no

doubt that everyone would agree that finding mortgages five or six

years ago was. -- was way too easy. We need to find a balance. Forcing

people into the private sector against their better wishes...

have just heard what Professor Douglas Robertson was saying, are

you finding your members are having that as a bigger part of their

business? Yes, there is no doubt it is an increasing part of the market

but it is probably temporary. There is a mindset that they want to warn

their own property and it will not disappear. Is a temporary lip? The

tax system would make you believe that house prices will recover

because you do not pay tax on selling. There are other things

going on. If we look at the proportion of young people in

private renting, a significant proportion of them, half the

population are going to university, have got student debt. Their

capacity to carry on debt... Could we see a circular change? If banks

are busy refinancing themselves and not providing mortgage product... I

think there are issues about private renting, Santander and

Clydesdale Bank are pulling out of the buy-to-let mortgage at market.

We are seeing private renting increasing by 6.9%. That market is

quite buoyant but other people coming into that market, if they

want to get in to buy to rent, facilities are being constrained.

Unless the financing system shifts back to where it was, maybe this is

a change that was more fundamental. A higher number of people will read

and then we need to ask ourselves, is it acceptable to have the

tenancy that is offered as a six- month tenancy? If you need to find

it a new house every six months, that is unsustainable. There is a

problem that a housing market is not functioning in the short term

as a real market. We have lots of people that want to sell and lots

of people that want to buy and they do not meet in the middle. That is

the problem and people need to put pressure on the lenders. It cannot

just be the lenders, people are not prepared to pay enough to get what

they want, or people selling the houses are not prepared to accept

that their houses are worth 20% of what they were worth a couple of

years ago. People are being more realistic in what they will accept

on their houses, which will put downward pressure on houses, but

only for a short term. But why? Surely if you have hoses on your

books as estate agents, the implication is people are not

cutting the price is far enough. House prices need to fall a lot

further. Those people being realistic are finding buyers and

selling houses quickly. It is a slow process, people are coming to

terms with the fact that it is going to take some time, because we

did get into an unrealistic situation five or six years ago.

you went to sleep last night four sets into the Murray match,

thinking he lost it, you would wake up to find out how wrong you were.

Congratulations to him, a fantastic achievement. The same cannot be

said for the Scotland national team. They drew 1-1 against Macedonia.

Politicians have been quick to jump on the bandwagon for Andy Murray.

We have been asking if the momentum will live on in the Scottish Psyche.

Dour, deep. Some might call it bloody minded. The Scottish

characteristics serve at Dunblane sportsmen well last night.

Politicians of every hue were proffering their praises. Andy

Murray day. The first item was to congratulate him on his wonderful

issue. -- victory. Some bleary eyed cabinet ministers had been watching

every shot. I was exhausted watching it but it is extraordinary.

I am delighted for him. It is a massive achievement. 76 years,

Britain has waited for a Grand Slam win in tennis. Everyone in the

chamber will wish to record congratulations to Andy Murray

after his historic success. Politics and sport are a heady mix.

Identity and the constitution are huge issues for the next few years.

Also, it has been a bit -- massive year for Britishness, lots of Union

Jack, discussion about Britain as a successful unit because of sport.

In the real world things are going on that make it look not as shiny

and attractive. Perhaps it is not surprising politicians are aligning

themselves with sporting success, but is there any evidence we are so

easily swayed? Andy Murray is someone who has been successful at

the very top, he was successful in New York, which was a cosmopolitan

place, so every Scot will think it is possible for Scots to make it in

the big arena, even if they do not explicitly draw that conclusion. At

the back of their mind, a Scot has won a tennis match, and who would

believe that? 30 years ago, some members of the chattering classes

were convinced if Scotland had fared better during the World Cup

campaign in Argentina, the 1979 referendum on evolution might have

had different result. -- the evolution. Politically I am not

sure it means that much deep down, when people go back to daily life.

Great things to watch and participate in, but after that,

what happens to people? They get on with their lives. It involves good

things and bad things. They have enjoyed it and they move on.

builds up the belief in Scotland as a country again. Instead of just

being a part of England, it is Scotland. He has been trying hard,

it is great to see a Scot doing it. My feeling is it might away but I

hope it continues, but it has given everyone a bit of a boost. Everyone

is feeling happier. In a couple of weeks, will the nation still feel

up lifted and confident all we wait revert to type? There is part of

the Scottish identity that wallows in failure and is lacking in

confidence, and it shows itself in things like Scots being taciturn,

find it difficult to speak up in crowds. Although national

identities can be exaggerated, there is something about Scotland

that involves having a chip on both shoulders and not being a ray of

sunshine. Andy Murray said he couldn't believe he had finally won

a major. It's a shame we cat making fakes the fortunes of the football