14/11/2012 Newsnight Scotland

In this country, we do not have Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: Well,

unemployment across the UK may be falling, here it's going up. And

the number of people in jobs is falling here faster than anywhere

else in the UK. So what's going on? And do politicians have any

sensible ideas for what to do about it? Good evening. UK unemployment

is looking better, as you've just heard, though some of that may be

attributable to the tail end of the Olympic bounce, but Scotland's

figures are still getting worse. Count in an unexpected jump in

inflation and dismal retail sales. And don't be too surprised the

Governor of the Bank of England is cutting his growth forecast...

Today's economic news is like the weather - unpleasant, in you do not

know when it will get better. The economy is still struggling, growth

is sluggish, high inflation and unemployment in Scotland rising.

The Governor of the Bank of England downgraded his economic forecast.

The immediate economic outlook remains a challenging. Growth is

sluggish and inflation above target. The road to recovery will be long

and winding. But there are good reasons to suppose we are

travelling in the right direction. The committee stands ready to do

whatever it can to keep us on the right path. In July-September,

unemployment in Scotland rose to 8.1%, whereas for the wider UK, it

was down. Employment was down 27,000. Retail sales for October

would down 1.3% - not good news up ahead of Christmas. Today's figures

tell us the gap between the UK and Scottish figures has widened in the

past quarter, and that maybe starting to diverge. But statistics

show the any of this trend is that the unemployment rate is around a

central point - about 8%. Some months it will be up, others put

down. They could be two or three months and a road that will be

different, but it is on a par with the UK. One month's figures are not

important, but if it starts to lead to a trend, the warriors we are

still in the middle of public sector job cuts, and that will

probably lead to finance cuts. What has to happen is the private sector

soaks up those job losses and then some more jobs. If the performance

is better for one or two months, each government claims it is doing

better than the other, but sooner or later, they have to defend their

position. The Office of National Statistics Office us this graphic,

demonstrating how the UK's regions race against each other. The main

conclusion here is that the numbers change or the time, but still, the

graphic is the same. There are concerns we are not have the worst,

that this recession is unusually shallow. We do not understand why

has been so shallow, but the Warriors, other factors will come

into play, perhaps people were kept on in their jobs by companies that

will be let go. Things might get worse. The First Minister is

keeping a close eye on the future. UK unemployment fell by 50,000, and

stands at just above 2.5 million. Unemployment across the UK is down

by 49,000, but we know that 100,000 temporary jobs for the Olympic

Games were created. The tragedy would be if the beneficial effect

of the Olympics was used as a pretext for not taking action

across the country. The ball balls are up, the jolly tunes are wrong,

but today's figures give little Christmas cheer. They show a 1.3%

dip in sales for October. However, this shopping centre does not

reflect that. For some shoppers, a war is about employment impact on

spending. -- warrior about. could be February or March before

picks up. There are too many unemployed people are not enough

jobs. The Government has to find more ways of creating jobs. Do you

blame that on Westminster or Scotland? Both. They should be

working together to create more jobs for people. My family is

struggling to get jobs. It is not improving. I am not surprised at

that. Who did they, or you, blame? Probably the Government. They are

spending money elsewhere that could help people get back into work.

you have periods of unemployment? Two weeks here, two weeks there. I

work in scaffolding, so it depends on the weather. But be careful what

you wish for - if you pick away at the details, you might not like we

find. Sometimes, every silver lining has a cloud. It is not a

foregone conclusion. If people got into more debt, because they wanted

to spend money on Christmas, that is not a good thing. Not to put too

much of a dampener on Christmas, I hope! Mervyn King, economists and

the men and women on the streets will all be hoping for a little

something extra from Santa this I am joined now by Ken Mackintosh

and the SNP backbencher Dennis Robertson.

Thief Dennis Robertson, would you like to hazard some explanation as

to why employment is falling faster in Scotland than any other region -

- Mr Dennis Robertson. Levels go up and down for various

reasons. But the 100,000 jobs in the UK that we hear about and have

been welcomed are probably as a result of of the Olympic Games.

That might explain why unemployment was lower in some of the affected

the areas in England, it would not explain why the rumble up -- the

number of people in work in Scotland is falling. We are not

entirely sure of all their reasons. But there are trends. If we look at

the facts over the whole year we have actually been fairly stagnant.

We heard in the film there, and I thought that the Economist today a

fantastic job out auditioning for the Scrooge part in the Christmas

Carol, but if we look at the trends for the whole year they are fairly

stagnant. That is not brilliant, but I am a fairly optimistic person.

The thing that I see his optimism for the future. We do have sectors

within Scotland with exceptional employment. Ken Mackintosh, do you

buy that? Not at all. It is worrying that the first reaction to

these figures is to find some reason for explaining away the

increase elsewhere rather than taking responsibility for what has

happened here. If you are a parent with children you will be

desperately worried, Laura young person looking for a job. These are

anxious times indeed with little hope on the horizon. I am not

asking for a magic bullet, but I do think that the Scottish Government

should take responsibility. They take responsibility for the things

that go well, isn't it about time they take some action?

You are absolutely right, they tried to take credit, particularly

for growing employment, which is now falling faster than anywhere in

the UK, when it was going on. It is not clear it is their fault her for

what is happening at the moment. Nor, and I am not be a one to say

that it is their fault. I also think that George Osborne needs to

change direction and his policy. But the Scottish Government can

take action right now on procurement. Instead of sending

manufacturing abroad, for example to China, when not make sure that

there were small businesses here in Scotland benefit. RF we take the

knowledge economy. One of the best things the government can do is

invest in education skills of the workforce. That does not mean

sending everyone to university, but it does mean training and to the

best of their ability. This government has cut college funding

by 25 per cent. On that point about education, Dennis Robertson. I

think there are 5,000 fewer people in further education colleges than

there were five years ago. Is that a sensible situation to have? I

think there are 50,000 fewer than there were. I think that full-time

equivalents, you will find that the numbers are the same. A full-time

equivalent is an abstraction, the number of real human beings has

fallen by 50,000. People are not counting... They are looking for

ways to deflate the situation. What I am trying to say is that there

had been very positive aspects taken. If we look at the fact that

we have a youth employment Minister. She is bridging the gap between

education and employment. We have the skills Academy, we have skills

to Bellman Scotland. We have work going with the Scottish Enterprise.

And Highland Enterprise. A significant amount is being done by

the government. I am sure this is all terribly marvellous, but what

about the situation where employment -- unemployment is going

up here while it is going down in the rest of the UK? We had an air

their situation where there is a a great deal of employment in London.

We have energy sector in Scotland which creates excellent employment.

Ken Mackintosh, isn't it... We are creating 100,000 jobs in energy

sector over the next ten years. Isn't there a danger that you are

in, Ken Mackintosh, that if you question their Scottish government

you do not really believe the criticism. A you criticise the

Scottish Government for doing things that you do not really

believe would make any difference. I do believe that they would make a

difference. Again, it is disappointing that the SNP will not

even accept that because numbers are down from 380,000 to 300,000,

that is 80,000 less people going to college. I am not saying it is a

magic bullet, but what I am saying is that you can make a difference

here in Scotland using the powers of the Scottish Parliament. And if

you can choose the powers of the Scottish Parliament, if they SNP

constantly go on about the fact that they need independence, why

are they waiting for a referendum? For example investing in housing

construction would get in economy going. But the budget cuts have

stock this. Briefly, we are running a tough time. A on the procurement

thing, there is a consultation out there which is very positive. 27

per cent of employment is in small businesses. Last week we had a 10

per cent increase since all businesses. We have the highest

record of small businesses since the year 2,000. That is positive,

that is going in the right direction. More needs to be done,

no one says that it isn't, but we are going in the right direction.

We have run out of times. Thank you. That is all from me tonight. I am

sorry we had no time for the newspapers. Meanwhile, today is the