17/01/2013 Newsnight Scotland

security measures have been taken? Thank you all very much indeed.

Tonight on Newsnight Scotland. If there is to be a referendum on

Europe, how will that affect the other referendum? There are growing

demands on David Cameron to hold a referendum giving Britain the

option to leave the EU. But would that help or hinder those in

Scotland who are arguing for independence?'s And 20 years on,

we'll look back at the Velvet Divorce between the Czech Republic

and Slovakia, and ask if there are any lessons for Scotland. And we'll

be across the news from Algeria and bring you any updates before the

end of the programme. Good evening. The Prime Minister has postponed

the speech he was due to make on Europe tomorrow because of the

hostage crisis in Algeria. But David Cameron will soon announce

his intention to renegotiate Britain's relationship with the

European Union and to hold a referendum on the results of those

negotiations. But how will that affect the referendum here, which

is due to be held much sooner? We'll discuss that in a moment. But

first, here's Jamie McIvor. It is the big decision that so much will

rest on, a once in a generation decision that could affect all of

our lives, or an issue that some politicians seem to be obsessed by.

Yes, it is a big decision on Britain's future in the EU, so how

will questions about that affect the in depends of debate here?

Politicians on each side are already setting out their stall.

need a new relationship with Europe. That is not just in the UK's

interest but in Scotland's interest. More than 80% of the business done

by Scottish companies is with the rest of the United Kingdom. It is

important to retain that single market across the UK. That is being

jeopardised by yes campaign. Given the increasing Euro-sceptic conduct

of the Government in London it is a blow to the campaign and it helps

the "yes" campaign because we have a positive message that we want to

be part of Europe, we want to be involved with friends and allies in

Europe and put Scotland at the heart of Europe, because it is good

for business, good for the economy and that makes sure Scotland

benefits from being a in the European Union rather than being a

difficult partner in the package. But, cars courts any more or less

likely to want to be in the UK than people in the rest of the UK? A

recent opinion poll makes for interesting reading. Only about 170

Scots to park. Across the UK, as a whole, it seems more people would

want to leave the you if they got the chance, but in Scotland the

numbers are the other way round, with a bigger number of people

wanting to stay. That same opinion poll suggests that more Scots fear

we would be worse off outside the EU, than better off. Few dispute

that an independent Scotland would be welcome in the EU. The debates

would be about the terms of membership. With an independent

Scotland have Britain's current opt outs on things like the Euro, or

what Scotland be treated as a new entrant? But what if the terms of

Britain's membership of the you changed radically, before

independence? I do not think it would affect Scotland at all.

would be in the process of negotiating our membership of the

European Union. We would be concentrating on negotiating those

terms. Any changes to the rest of the UK's membership, I don't think

would affect Scotland. The focus is on the "yes" campaign to answer

these difficult questions. The broader debate about Europe has to

be seen in the context that people in Scotland have pretty much the

same interests as people elsewhere in the UK and a good deal for

Britain is a good deal for Scotland. The prospect of the debate over

independence coinciding with a debate on Europe opens up all kinds

of prospects. Might some Euro- sceptics, minded towards

independence, prefer Britain to take a step back from Europe, to

Scotland in Europe? What about those who support Europe and the

union? This debate could get even more complex. I'm joined now from

Edinburgh by Iain MacWhirter of The Herald and Alex Massie of the

Spectator, and here in the studio by Professor John Curtice of

Strathclyde University. It is an interesting a slightly unanswerable

question that if there is going to be a referendum on Europe, how that

would affect the referendum here. Potentially, again change a. The

unionist case for the past year has been that, the Scotland votes yes,

we will effectively be thrown out of Europe and not allowed to get

back in again without serious read up -- serious renegotiation. No it

seems that Scotland stays in the UK it is more likely to be leaving the

European Union, so there was a fundamental change in the posture

of this debate and I do not believe that Scots are anti-European in

anything like the way that people are and the south-east of England,

and particularly in the UK Conservative Party. Euro for there

is a very much Conservative preoccupation. You do not get it in

Scotland where all the major parties are pro-European. The idea

that Scotland would be better off out of Europe as far -- part of the

UK is nonsense. Scotland is going to have to compete for inward

investment with countries like Ireland, who are within the year.

Alex Massey? In the first place the SNP are probably correct to think

that a Conservative-led Government in London split by Euro-scepticism

is likely to benefit the "yes" campaign. I think it is the sort of

thing that creates a picture that makes it difficult for David

Cameron to make the case for the union in quite the way that he

would like to. There are a lot of borders in Scotland to would be

wary of been associated with what is being seen as a little England

Conservative Party. And there are differences in attitude towards

Europe between Scotland and the English, but they are not quite as

dramatic as he makes out. There is widespread disgruntlement with the

European Union in Scotland. The difference is that, while Europe is

an issue of enormous importance to a lot of voters in England, it is

of much less importance to the average voter in Scotland. The

degree of disgruntlement is widely expressed, but, the degree of

importance attached to European issues is very different. And that

is not surprising. We have our own constitutional argument to have

that obsesses people in Scotland. What is the evidence? There has

very limited evidence on attitudes in Scotland compared with England.

We picked up 156 respondeds out of the British opinion poll. I put

three opinion polls together but asked the same question, giving you

about 500 people in Scotland and on average across the UK as a whole,

in those opinion polls 66% of people wanted either to get out of

the EU, or too loose and Britain's relationship with it, and the

equivalent figure in Scotland is 56. There has been a little bit more

pro-European than the UK, as a whole, but given that the UK is in

a Eurosceptic mood at the moment you would have to prison that

Scotland is predominantly in the Euro-sceptic mood. The one thing

that is different is that UKIP, the principal vehicle through which

this is being promoted, does not have the kind of support north of

the border. What about Alex Massey's. That whilst people here

might be as Euro-sceptic, it is not as important to them? What our

debates about national feeling and sentiment and legitimacy and these

are parallel arguments. In England the argument among us Euro-sceptics

is, we do not think Brussels has the right to have a say in

Britain's affairs, and it is very much the same argument as those in

Scotland to say that we do not think London has the right to be

involved in Scotland's affairs, and, because that that the the the

Scottish nationalism is going on north of the border, that debate

trumps the feelings about nationalism, south of the border,

about Brussels. It is not just about opinion polls. If you got the

chatterati in Scotland, to make a choice between little England or

Britain and an independent Scotland in the European Union, I might just

plump for independence, and that idea took hold in the debate, even

if not based on opinion polls, that could have an important effect.

That is a plausible scenario, it is certainly shared by Alex Salmond

and Co SNP strategists. Who are rooting for David Cameron to win

the last general election because they believe the Conservative fight

in leg Government in London is useful for driving a wedge between

Scotland and England. The one thing that might be said, however, is

that senior figures in the business community would be very wary about

any possible scenario that would develop, where by Scotland was a

member of the European Union, but the rest of the UK was not. That is

something that would concern Scottish business for

understandable reasons and introduce an additional level of

uncertainty into what is a complex argument. There are some voices who

say that it would be better that Britain left the you, because

Britain never has and never will share the fundamental values and

project that most of the EU member states have signed up to, which is

about moves towards more federalism. Do you think the SNP are signed up

to that? In much the way that Labour say, look, we are

fundamentally against what the Tories are saying on Europe, but we

think, a referendum, not just now, but be SNP are not sure about the

Euro, and about fishing policies. Is there any real intellectual

difference between them and the They have had independence written

into their founding programme. It is a point of political culture

north of the border, There aren't the amp -- transmission belts of

this Euro-scepticism you find in the south-east of England. That is

mainly because the Conservative Party is irrelevant north of the

border. The dominant parties here are the SNP and Labour and they are

pro-European, broadly speaking. They certainly don't want a

referendum on pulling out. As soon as you start having this referendum

on the future of the UK in Europe it will have a fundamental effect

on the campaign in Scotland because you will have European elections in

May, 2014, months before the Scottish independence referendum,

and there UKIP will be vying with the Tories. They all have a

fundamental effect on Scotland. If you pull out of Europe you lose all

the social protections that come with European membership and

Julie's access to the European markets, that is crucially

important in Scotland -- and you lose access. If breaking up is hard

to do the Czechs and Slovaks made it look easier than most. They are

peaceful split has been hailed as an example of a smooth transition

but his political rivals have have It sits like a space source up on

the bridge over the Danube into the heart of Bratislava. Called What

Architecture is a reminder of Slovakia's communist past. That era

was swept away by the tide of peaceful protests in Prague. The

Velvet Revolution was soon followed by the Velvet divorce that split

the country into two new ones. It was politicians, that the public,

that decided Slovakia and the Czech -- Czech Bland should become two

independent states. Unlike Scotland question was never put to the

people in a referendum. Slovakia's Deputy Prime Minister says

independence came when talks to find the central European

equivalent of devolution Max failed. The decision to split the country

came after it more than two years of painful negotiations, the aim

was to find a model of common existence. It was called the best

out of all about solutions. All the rules were agreed in advance,

namely that Czech Republic inherited two-thirds of assets and

liabilities, properties abroad, embassies. Based on population of

territory? Both. And economy. It was fair. Slovakia had moored State

Building to do it than the Czechs. Everything from the national flag,

the national economy had to be redesigned. The man who led

Slovakia to independence said overhauling an economy based on

building unwanted army tanks was difficult. TRANSLATION: Slovakia

was a bigger part of Czechoslovakia. And the effect of these changes on

Slovakia will much heavier. There was a return back to the market

economy. But also it took the thought each republic will live by

what it produces by itself. Both continued to spend the same

currency after independence but that arrangement lasted less than

six weeks before both sides agreed to go their own way on that as well.

On Tuesday we met, on Friday week announced the currency split

publicly. On Monday morning the currency was split. It took five

days. When Slovakia became independent its economy took a

knock. By 2007 inside the European Union this country had become known

as the central European Tiger, the global financial crisis tamed the

Tiger, but there has been no double-dip recession here, and the

economy is growing once again. general feeling is there was

scepticism in the beginning, people were not convinced the split was

the best idea, but right now we are doing very well and our friendship

is better than ever. A great deal has changed in post-communist

Slovakia, but while the robbers who wonder what might have been if it

had not split from the Czech plans after 20 years of independence

there is no going back. New is of the attempt to free

hostages from the BP gas facility in Algeria has been coming threat

the evening. Our reporter is that BP's headquarters in Aberdeen.

Clearly this has been a day of very fast changing events. At this time

at the end of the evening the full details of exactly what has

happened over the last 36 hours is still unclear. What we do know from

the UK Government is this operation, this Algerian operation took

attempted to free some of the captors has now ended. Certainly

for a good part of the day that was being described as an ongoing

investigation. The Algerian Communication Minister said on

local television there had been fatalities as a result of that,

both in terms of foreign nationals and capitis, but also those who

were holding them -- capitals. Much confusion still. One of the Scots

he the First Minister talked-about has been freed and has been in

contact with family back home. Beyond that we know very little but

the mood of the Prime Minister and the Foreign Office changed

significantly earlier this evening. They were talking about expecting

great news. Family liaison officers will be breaking any news to those

people concerned, probably this evening and any more information is

not likely to come out until tomorrow morning.