30/01/2013 Newsnight Scotland


30/01/2013

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status and it too becomes a museum Tonight on Newsnight Scotland,

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what's in a question? Today we found out what we'll be asked on

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the referendum ballot paper. We'll hear from the Electoral

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Commission's John McCormick, who chose the question. And we have an

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in depth interview with Yes Scotland's leader, Blair Jenkins.

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Good evening. Should Scotland be an independent country, yes or no?

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That's the wording of the choice we'll be asked to make sometime in

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the autumn of next year. The Electoral Commission tweaked the

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Government's chosen question on the grounds that it was leading. So is

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everyone happy? Steven Godden reports.

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In the debate surrounding Scotland's future, one of the most

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prominent questions has been the question itself. With so much

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depended on the answer, framing the correct words has been a minefield

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from the outset of nuance and semantics. The question the

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Scottish Government wanted to put to the people next year was, do you

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agree that Scotland should be an independent country, yes or Noel? -

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- no. The Electoral Commission today offered a revised proposal.

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Get rid of the phrase, do you agree? And ASDA shorter question,

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should Scotland be an independent country, yes or no? We asked people

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to fill out the ballot paper. Across the board, all across the

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board people said they felt do you agree might incline people to say

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yes rather than provide alternatives. The electoral

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commission had made a minor modification. I think their

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reasoning for that is understandable. -- the Electoral

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Commission. I have no problem with that. We now know what the question

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on the ballot paper will be. There was lots of evidence showing that

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how you ask the question can determine the outcome. The

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commission made it as neutral as possible. We all agree with that.

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This sense of harmony extends to finance. The electoral commission

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says spending by the Yes campaign in the 16 run-up -- 16 week run-up

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to polling day should be capped at �1.5 million. Him and each party

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Spence during the same period should be based on their share of

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the vote from the roast -- most recent Holyrood elections. There

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has to be a limit. We accept that for some reason the nationalists

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will spend more than we can. I think there is a matter of

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principle. They are write about the question. Oh well except their

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verdict on the amount of money. In relation to everything else, I am

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prepared to accept their conclusions because I want this to

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be fair and reasonable and independent. The commission also

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identified uncertainty about the implications of the outcome of the

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referendum. They will call for the UK and Scottish governments to get

:03:36.:03:39.

together and clarify the process that will follow the result as the

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most obvious source of friction. Given that the Labour Party and the

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UK Government have called for the full acceptance of the

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recommendations, will be Prime Minister give a commitment that he

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will work with the Scot has Government in advance of the

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referendum to come across up with this joint decision? Of course we

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will work with the Scottish Government. We will not renegotiate

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Scotland's exit from the United Kingdom. It is, frankly, his party

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that wants to break up the United Kingdom and it is for his party to

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make the case. The Scottish parliament still asked to rubber-

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stamp detail. But some key questions have now been answered.

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For the long campaign ahead, days marked by such broad consensus are

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likely to be few and far between. I'm joined by the Electoral

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Commissioner for Scotland, John McCormick. Presumably you were

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delighted with all of this? Did it pleased that people accepted the

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report and the recommendations so quickly. -- I'm very pleased.

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were you so keen to raise the limits of money? We did feel the

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Scottish Government's recommendation of �750,000 being

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the cap was Olu -- was on the low side. We took as a benchmark the

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funding levels at the last Scottish local authority elections, the last

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Scottish Parliament elections in 2011. We look but the elements that

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go into a campaign and could not see much to justify having a

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funding gap that was 50% of what you would have for a Scottish

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parliamentary elections. This is the same as a general election.

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What period does that cover? It is for the regulated period that we

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recommend it, 16 weeks leading to polling day. Until that point they

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can spend what they're like? Yes. There are a couple of caveats.

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During that period political parties are regulated. During the

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16 weeks if you spend money that has exceeded the unregulated period,

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it has to comply with the criteria. It is very clear. We do not that a

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lot of the funding and a lot of the money is spent in the last 16 weeks

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when people do not know. When I read your report, What leaked out

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that he was the passage where you talk about people wanting

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information. You say, "In particular, people wanted unbiased

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information about the pros and cons of each out, and what independence

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will mean in practice." Very few people raised questions about

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process. The reaction to that from both the Scottish Government and

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the Government of London today has been to talk entirely about

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process? The yes. It is very important to separate them. A lot

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of people expected the campaigns for either side to clarify a number

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:07:11.:07:11.

of points. You say they want this on biased situation? They also

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wanted an objective piece of clear information about what would happen

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if Scotland voted yes and no. know it is not your job to

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recommend these things, but if you take the role that the Office of

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budget responsibility is supposed to play in the arguments between

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the main parties at Westminster, it sounds as if people would quite

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like something like that here on the referendum that could say to

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them, here is our analysis? We're stressing the importance of that in

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the report. That is why it is a recommendation. Ideally, both

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governments would prepare a joint stake and about what these steps

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would be after the result is declared. You say in the report

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that it is not the process, there is clearly a feeling from the

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research she did, people are saying to you, we do not know whether to

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believe what the yes campaign or the no campaign is the same, and we

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do not know how to evaluate them. People say we should make an

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assessment of the competing claims. That is what we do during a any

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election campaign. We expect people to do that. But across the board

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people said they would like some objective information. Ideally it

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would be great if both governments could state what the next steps

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would be. That would help. obvious thing would be, Nigel

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Lawson, before Christmas when Michael Moore was at the House of

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Lords committee, the British Government has the power to ask the

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European Union but the status of a Scottish Cup -- up a Scottish

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Government would be if people voted yes. He has put something into the

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public domain that the politicians do not want to be in the public

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domain. We did not start this process. We did not go out to ask

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this question. It came up. We are relaying that are both governments,

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saying how important it is to the electorate. Beyond a statement of

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process, given that people said it was not process they were worried

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about, and although it was not your responsibility, which he liked to

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say to the Government, you may like to read that passage and think

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about it? That is what we said. People want objective information.

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The greater clarity that can be given before the referendum would

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be appreciated by the electorate. It is down to the Government's --

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Governments. Voters want to know what happens in the event of a Yes

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vote and in the event of a no vote. The ya articulating that to the

:10:16.:10:26.
:10:26.:10:35.

Political campaigners pay attention to opinion polls. In a minute, I

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will be speaking to the yes campaign, but here are few opinion

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polls operation -- recent Scottish opinion. The Scottish attitudes

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survey was announced last week. It looks like uncomfortable reading

:10:55.:11:05.
:11:05.:11:06.

looks like uncomfortable reading Both figures are down from previous

:11:06.:11:16.
:11:16.:11:18.

Another poll at the weekend was slot the ball positive for the Yes

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campaign, suggesting a 13. Gap -- A 13 point gap. Another respected

:11:28.:11:37.
:11:38.:11:38.

poll has records going back to 2007. Yes is in blue, no is in red, and

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the don't know's I in yellow. There might be reasons for the ebbs and

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flows in opinion. Opinion polling is not just about the referendum.

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In spite of the apparent drift downwards in support for

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independence, the yes vote is clearly at the top of the heap in

:12:05.:12:15.
:12:15.:12:22.

The Green Party did well on the regional list. Finally, there is a

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much more sophisticated way of predicting the outcome of a

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referendum. William Hill offered A few weeks ago, we interviewed the

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Better Together leader, Alastair bar -- Alistair Darling. I am now

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joined by Yes Scotland's Blair Jenkins. Do have any opinions on

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the money issue? Are you happy that it is vastly parallel? The key

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thing for the electoral commission to deliver was a level playing

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field, and they have done that now. Their original recommendation seen

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to be unequal as far as we could see, but I am happy with their new

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report. You have got a problem, haven't you? When you got involved

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and this, you would have expected to see support for independence

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rising by now, wouldn't you? think the interesting thing about

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the opinion polls is that the most reason one had a yes vote as 34 %.

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If that is where we are right now, I think that is OK. The SNP have

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been in government since 2007. reason -- the real debate begins

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now. Last year was dominated by a process. We have had an SNP

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government since 2007. This is a bigger debate. This is about the

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future direction of the country. Are you selling us there's going to

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be new and interesting arguments? Yes. The key important point is

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that the disparity has been down to different questions. One of the key

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things about today's question is that now on, every opinion poll

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will be asking the same thing, because there is no point in asking

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anything else. Opinion polls now will become clearer and more

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focused, and more reliable. you're just saying they are wrong?

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Surely, you are trying to put a good spin on it. The club be happy

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that Scottish social attitudes surveys had the yashmak boat -- the

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yes vote as 23 %. It's not that it hasn't changed over the last few

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months. It hasn't changed for about 20 years. He must have hoped the

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you are making progress. The 35 % figure is more reliable. You get

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that with real salami-slicing. It is also last year's opinion polls.

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But you're not making any progress. Most polls are showing you as going

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down. 34 % in the most recent poll. I think opinion will move our way.

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What is that based on? If you do things which are happening in the

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real world, I sought the Treasury content -- conceding that Scottish

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people would be no worse off. We have had the forcing through of the

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benefit cuts in Westminster against the wishes of 80 % of Scotland's

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MPs. As the things are realised, and as remove Ford in the debate,

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it will swing our way. Here is the key thing. What has happened today

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is that we now have clarity on the referendum question. Because the

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Electoral Commission did this extensive consultation, the people

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of Scotland have now given us the right question, and the people of

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Quest -- people of Scotland will give us the right answer. What type

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- but what sort of country to you want to live in? It is a multi-

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party campaign. It has got support from the study settle party, the

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Scottish Green Party, the Scottish socialists. I have had a look at

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:16:50.:16:52.

your website. Your Yes Scotland. Let me give you one example. He is

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the section on oil and gas. It goes on about how wonderful it will be

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there. I did not see it reflected anywhere that the Green Party view

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that it is a band -- it is a bad idea. If you look further into the

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website, there is an article by Patrick Cox -- Patrick Harby the

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questions the reliance of oil. The reliance of Scotland of oil. The

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one thing everyone agrees on is that Westminster is not right for

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Scotland. We should not look at these and go to articles by Patrick

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Harvey? People in the yes campaign agree that Westminster is not

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working for Scotland. If we stay in the UK, we will -- will carry on

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not getting governments we want. said the other day, somewhat

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bizarrely, but they would never have been a financial Scotland if

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you had been independent. That is incorrect. Is Scotland had been

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independent, we might not have needed the banking bail-out.

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According to the F T today, RBS is about to pay �250 million in

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bonuses to the division that was involved in the interest rate

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scandal. Do you think you're right to pay those bonuses? I personally

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do not, but it is a decision for that company to make. If the UK

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government have a sizable stake in RBS, it is partly their decision as

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well. But you are the head of the yes campaign. This company will be

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regulated in Scotland. Do you think Stephen Hester is wrong to do this?

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I think banking bonuses have created a lot of cynicism.

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would say to Stephen Hester, do not do this? I disagree with excessive

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banking bonuses. Given what you were saying the other day about the

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financial crisis, you would reject absolutely any idea that financial

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regulation in an independent Scotland should be left to the

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banking industry? The fish has -- the Fiscal Commission is about to

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report, and arguments on both sides on a complex and technical issue.

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The valid point I was making was that if Scotland had been an

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independent country, just like other countries but Norway and

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Australia, babe did not spell out their banks. I think the UK

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government and the fine edge to services authority were asleep at

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the will. If you are right, you would reject absolutely any

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suggestion that an independent Scotland should leave regulation of

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its banks to the Bank of England? Otherwise, what you said does not

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make sense. The overall arrangements for the sterling zone

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there will have to deal with the issues around what is harmonised

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across the UK. I think is right to be part of the pound currency, and

:20:18.:20:23.

remain in that financial settlement. But that is for the benefit of

:20:23.:20:32.

Scotland and the rest of the UK. Even Alastair Darling has said that

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if Scotland votes yes, it would be desirable and logical for Scotland

:20:36.:20:44.

to carry on being part of the Stirling's own. -- the pound

:20:44.:20:54.
:20:54.:20:54.

sterling zone. But the campaign say that they are responsible for the

:20:54.:21:02.

lax financial regulation in the first place. You should be saying,

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Alastair Darling is right? What I am saying is that even people who

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do not support Scottish independence, including Alastair

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Darling, say that if Scotland votes yes, it makes sense for everyone in

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the British Isles to pot Scotland to be part of the pound sterling

:21:23.:21:33.
:21:33.:21:39.

zone. But separate casino banking from vanilla banking? My personal

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view is that there is a good case for separating High Street banking

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from investment banking. We have to leave it there. Very quickly,

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leave it there. Very quickly, tomorrow's front pages. The

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watchdog hits out at referendum confusion. There's a picture of

:21:56.:22:02.

what might be like the ballot paper there. The Financial Times has the

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