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status and it too becomes a museum Tonight on Newsnight Scotland, | :00:08. | :00:12. | |
what's in a question? Today we found out what we'll be asked on | :00:12. | :00:14. | |
the referendum ballot paper. We'll hear from the Electoral | :00:15. | :00:18. | |
Commission's John McCormick, who chose the question. And we have an | :00:19. | :00:22. | |
in depth interview with Yes Scotland's leader, Blair Jenkins. | :00:22. | :00:26. | |
Good evening. Should Scotland be an independent country, yes or no? | :00:26. | :00:29. | |
That's the wording of the choice we'll be asked to make sometime in | :00:29. | :00:35. | |
the autumn of next year. The Electoral Commission tweaked the | :00:35. | :00:38. | |
Government's chosen question on the grounds that it was leading. So is | :00:38. | :00:45. | |
everyone happy? Steven Godden reports. | :00:45. | :00:50. | |
In the debate surrounding Scotland's future, one of the most | :00:50. | :00:54. | |
prominent questions has been the question itself. With so much | :00:54. | :00:59. | |
depended on the answer, framing the correct words has been a minefield | :00:59. | :01:04. | |
from the outset of nuance and semantics. The question the | :01:05. | :01:09. | |
Scottish Government wanted to put to the people next year was, do you | :01:09. | :01:17. | |
agree that Scotland should be an independent country, yes or Noel? - | :01:17. | :01:21. | |
- no. The Electoral Commission today offered a revised proposal. | :01:21. | :01:27. | |
Get rid of the phrase, do you agree? And ASDA shorter question, | :01:28. | :01:34. | |
should Scotland be an independent country, yes or no? We asked people | :01:34. | :01:44. | |
to fill out the ballot paper. Across the board, all across the | :01:44. | :01:50. | |
board people said they felt do you agree might incline people to say | :01:50. | :01:58. | |
yes rather than provide alternatives. The electoral | :01:58. | :02:01. | |
commission had made a minor modification. I think their | :02:01. | :02:06. | |
reasoning for that is understandable. -- the Electoral | :02:06. | :02:13. | |
Commission. I have no problem with that. We now know what the question | :02:13. | :02:18. | |
on the ballot paper will be. There was lots of evidence showing that | :02:19. | :02:21. | |
how you ask the question can determine the outcome. The | :02:21. | :02:29. | |
commission made it as neutral as possible. We all agree with that. | :02:29. | :02:34. | |
This sense of harmony extends to finance. The electoral commission | :02:34. | :02:41. | |
says spending by the Yes campaign in the 16 run-up -- 16 week run-up | :02:41. | :02:47. | |
to polling day should be capped at �1.5 million. Him and each party | :02:47. | :02:51. | |
Spence during the same period should be based on their share of | :02:51. | :03:00. | |
the vote from the roast -- most recent Holyrood elections. There | :03:00. | :03:05. | |
has to be a limit. We accept that for some reason the nationalists | :03:05. | :03:09. | |
will spend more than we can. I think there is a matter of | :03:09. | :03:16. | |
principle. They are write about the question. Oh well except their | :03:16. | :03:20. | |
verdict on the amount of money. In relation to everything else, I am | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
prepared to accept their conclusions because I want this to | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
be fair and reasonable and independent. The commission also | :03:27. | :03:31. | |
identified uncertainty about the implications of the outcome of the | :03:31. | :03:36. | |
referendum. They will call for the UK and Scottish governments to get | :03:36. | :03:39. | |
together and clarify the process that will follow the result as the | :03:39. | :03:43. | |
most obvious source of friction. Given that the Labour Party and the | :03:43. | :03:46. | |
UK Government have called for the full acceptance of the | :03:46. | :03:49. | |
recommendations, will be Prime Minister give a commitment that he | :03:49. | :03:53. | |
will work with the Scot has Government in advance of the | :03:53. | :03:58. | |
referendum to come across up with this joint decision? Of course we | :03:58. | :04:03. | |
will work with the Scottish Government. We will not renegotiate | :04:03. | :04:08. | |
Scotland's exit from the United Kingdom. It is, frankly, his party | :04:08. | :04:12. | |
that wants to break up the United Kingdom and it is for his party to | :04:12. | :04:18. | |
make the case. The Scottish parliament still asked to rubber- | :04:18. | :04:25. | |
stamp detail. But some key questions have now been answered. | :04:25. | :04:29. | |
For the long campaign ahead, days marked by such broad consensus are | :04:29. | :04:32. | |
likely to be few and far between. I'm joined by the Electoral | :04:32. | :04:38. | |
Commissioner for Scotland, John McCormick. Presumably you were | :04:38. | :04:44. | |
delighted with all of this? Did it pleased that people accepted the | :04:44. | :04:48. | |
report and the recommendations so quickly. -- I'm very pleased. | :04:48. | :04:57. | |
were you so keen to raise the limits of money? We did feel the | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
Scottish Government's recommendation of �750,000 being | :05:01. | :05:08. | |
the cap was Olu -- was on the low side. We took as a benchmark the | :05:09. | :05:15. | |
funding levels at the last Scottish local authority elections, the last | :05:16. | :05:20. | |
Scottish Parliament elections in 2011. We look but the elements that | :05:20. | :05:25. | |
go into a campaign and could not see much to justify having a | :05:25. | :05:29. | |
funding gap that was 50% of what you would have for a Scottish | :05:29. | :05:34. | |
parliamentary elections. This is the same as a general election. | :05:34. | :05:39. | |
What period does that cover? It is for the regulated period that we | :05:39. | :05:45. | |
recommend it, 16 weeks leading to polling day. Until that point they | :05:45. | :05:50. | |
can spend what they're like? Yes. There are a couple of caveats. | :05:50. | :06:00. | |
During that period political parties are regulated. During the | :06:00. | :06:05. | |
16 weeks if you spend money that has exceeded the unregulated period, | :06:05. | :06:11. | |
it has to comply with the criteria. It is very clear. We do not that a | :06:12. | :06:16. | |
lot of the funding and a lot of the money is spent in the last 16 weeks | :06:16. | :06:23. | |
when people do not know. When I read your report, What leaked out | :06:23. | :06:26. | |
that he was the passage where you talk about people wanting | :06:26. | :06:32. | |
information. You say, "In particular, people wanted unbiased | :06:32. | :06:36. | |
information about the pros and cons of each out, and what independence | :06:36. | :06:41. | |
will mean in practice." Very few people raised questions about | :06:42. | :06:45. | |
process. The reaction to that from both the Scottish Government and | :06:45. | :06:49. | |
the Government of London today has been to talk entirely about | :06:49. | :06:56. | |
process? The yes. It is very important to separate them. A lot | :06:56. | :07:01. | |
of people expected the campaigns for either side to clarify a number | :07:01. | :07:11. | |
:07:11. | :07:11. | ||
of points. You say they want this on biased situation? They also | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
wanted an objective piece of clear information about what would happen | :07:15. | :07:23. | |
if Scotland voted yes and no. know it is not your job to | :07:23. | :07:30. | |
recommend these things, but if you take the role that the Office of | :07:30. | :07:33. | |
budget responsibility is supposed to play in the arguments between | :07:33. | :07:39. | |
the main parties at Westminster, it sounds as if people would quite | :07:39. | :07:43. | |
like something like that here on the referendum that could say to | :07:43. | :07:50. | |
them, here is our analysis? We're stressing the importance of that in | :07:50. | :07:54. | |
the report. That is why it is a recommendation. Ideally, both | :07:54. | :07:58. | |
governments would prepare a joint stake and about what these steps | :07:59. | :08:05. | |
would be after the result is declared. You say in the report | :08:05. | :08:10. | |
that it is not the process, there is clearly a feeling from the | :08:10. | :08:17. | |
research she did, people are saying to you, we do not know whether to | :08:17. | :08:22. | |
believe what the yes campaign or the no campaign is the same, and we | :08:22. | :08:30. | |
do not know how to evaluate them. People say we should make an | :08:30. | :08:35. | |
assessment of the competing claims. That is what we do during a any | :08:35. | :08:40. | |
election campaign. We expect people to do that. But across the board | :08:40. | :08:44. | |
people said they would like some objective information. Ideally it | :08:44. | :08:48. | |
would be great if both governments could state what the next steps | :08:48. | :08:55. | |
would be. That would help. obvious thing would be, Nigel | :08:55. | :09:01. | |
Lawson, before Christmas when Michael Moore was at the House of | :09:01. | :09:04. | |
Lords committee, the British Government has the power to ask the | :09:04. | :09:11. | |
European Union but the status of a Scottish Cup -- up a Scottish | :09:11. | :09:18. | |
Government would be if people voted yes. He has put something into the | :09:18. | :09:22. | |
public domain that the politicians do not want to be in the public | :09:22. | :09:30. | |
domain. We did not start this process. We did not go out to ask | :09:30. | :09:36. | |
this question. It came up. We are relaying that are both governments, | :09:36. | :09:40. | |
saying how important it is to the electorate. Beyond a statement of | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
process, given that people said it was not process they were worried | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
about, and although it was not your responsibility, which he liked to | :09:48. | :09:52. | |
say to the Government, you may like to read that passage and think | :09:52. | :09:57. | |
about it? That is what we said. People want objective information. | :09:57. | :10:00. | |
The greater clarity that can be given before the referendum would | :10:00. | :10:06. | |
be appreciated by the electorate. It is down to the Government's -- | :10:06. | :10:11. | |
Governments. Voters want to know what happens in the event of a Yes | :10:11. | :10:16. | |
vote and in the event of a no vote. The ya articulating that to the | :10:16. | :10:26. | |
:10:26. | :10:35. | ||
Political campaigners pay attention to opinion polls. In a minute, I | :10:35. | :10:42. | |
will be speaking to the yes campaign, but here are few opinion | :10:43. | :10:48. | |
polls operation -- recent Scottish opinion. The Scottish attitudes | :10:48. | :10:55. | |
survey was announced last week. It looks like uncomfortable reading | :10:55. | :11:05. | |
:11:05. | :11:06. | ||
looks like uncomfortable reading Both figures are down from previous | :11:06. | :11:16. | |
:11:16. | :11:18. | ||
Another poll at the weekend was slot the ball positive for the Yes | :11:18. | :11:27. | |
campaign, suggesting a 13. Gap -- A 13 point gap. Another respected | :11:28. | :11:37. | |
:11:38. | :11:38. | ||
poll has records going back to 2007. Yes is in blue, no is in red, and | :11:38. | :11:45. | |
the don't know's I in yellow. There might be reasons for the ebbs and | :11:45. | :11:52. | |
flows in opinion. Opinion polling is not just about the referendum. | :11:52. | :11:58. | |
In spite of the apparent drift downwards in support for | :11:58. | :12:05. | |
independence, the yes vote is clearly at the top of the heap in | :12:05. | :12:15. | |
:12:15. | :12:22. | ||
The Green Party did well on the regional list. Finally, there is a | :12:22. | :12:25. | |
much more sophisticated way of predicting the outcome of a | :12:25. | :12:35. | |
:12:35. | :12:43. | ||
referendum. William Hill offered A few weeks ago, we interviewed the | :12:43. | :12:48. | |
Better Together leader, Alastair bar -- Alistair Darling. I am now | :12:48. | :12:54. | |
joined by Yes Scotland's Blair Jenkins. Do have any opinions on | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
the money issue? Are you happy that it is vastly parallel? The key | :12:59. | :13:03. | |
thing for the electoral commission to deliver was a level playing | :13:03. | :13:09. | |
field, and they have done that now. Their original recommendation seen | :13:09. | :13:14. | |
to be unequal as far as we could see, but I am happy with their new | :13:14. | :13:24. | |
report. You have got a problem, haven't you? When you got involved | :13:24. | :13:30. | |
and this, you would have expected to see support for independence | :13:30. | :13:34. | |
rising by now, wouldn't you? think the interesting thing about | :13:34. | :13:42. | |
the opinion polls is that the most reason one had a yes vote as 34 %. | :13:42. | :13:50. | |
If that is where we are right now, I think that is OK. The SNP have | :13:50. | :13:54. | |
been in government since 2007. reason -- the real debate begins | :13:54. | :14:00. | |
now. Last year was dominated by a process. We have had an SNP | :14:00. | :14:06. | |
government since 2007. This is a bigger debate. This is about the | :14:06. | :14:10. | |
future direction of the country. Are you selling us there's going to | :14:11. | :14:20. | |
be new and interesting arguments? Yes. The key important point is | :14:20. | :14:24. | |
that the disparity has been down to different questions. One of the key | :14:24. | :14:30. | |
things about today's question is that now on, every opinion poll | :14:30. | :14:35. | |
will be asking the same thing, because there is no point in asking | :14:35. | :14:40. | |
anything else. Opinion polls now will become clearer and more | :14:40. | :14:49. | |
focused, and more reliable. you're just saying they are wrong? | :14:49. | :14:53. | |
Surely, you are trying to put a good spin on it. The club be happy | :14:53. | :14:59. | |
that Scottish social attitudes surveys had the yashmak boat -- the | :14:59. | :15:04. | |
yes vote as 23 %. It's not that it hasn't changed over the last few | :15:04. | :15:09. | |
months. It hasn't changed for about 20 years. He must have hoped the | :15:09. | :15:15. | |
you are making progress. The 35 % figure is more reliable. You get | :15:15. | :15:21. | |
that with real salami-slicing. It is also last year's opinion polls. | :15:21. | :15:26. | |
But you're not making any progress. Most polls are showing you as going | :15:26. | :15:34. | |
down. 34 % in the most recent poll. I think opinion will move our way. | :15:34. | :15:39. | |
What is that based on? If you do things which are happening in the | :15:39. | :15:45. | |
real world, I sought the Treasury content -- conceding that Scottish | :15:45. | :15:50. | |
people would be no worse off. We have had the forcing through of the | :15:50. | :15:55. | |
benefit cuts in Westminster against the wishes of 80 % of Scotland's | :15:55. | :16:00. | |
MPs. As the things are realised, and as remove Ford in the debate, | :16:00. | :16:06. | |
it will swing our way. Here is the key thing. What has happened today | :16:06. | :16:11. | |
is that we now have clarity on the referendum question. Because the | :16:11. | :16:14. | |
Electoral Commission did this extensive consultation, the people | :16:14. | :16:19. | |
of Scotland have now given us the right question, and the people of | :16:19. | :16:23. | |
Quest -- people of Scotland will give us the right answer. What type | :16:23. | :16:32. | |
- but what sort of country to you want to live in? It is a multi- | :16:32. | :16:35. | |
party campaign. It has got support from the study settle party, the | :16:35. | :16:40. | |
Scottish Green Party, the Scottish socialists. I have had a look at | :16:40. | :16:50. | |
:16:50. | :16:52. | ||
your website. Your Yes Scotland. Let me give you one example. He is | :16:52. | :16:57. | |
the section on oil and gas. It goes on about how wonderful it will be | :16:57. | :17:02. | |
there. I did not see it reflected anywhere that the Green Party view | :17:03. | :17:08. | |
that it is a band -- it is a bad idea. If you look further into the | :17:08. | :17:12. | |
website, there is an article by Patrick Cox -- Patrick Harby the | :17:12. | :17:20. | |
questions the reliance of oil. The reliance of Scotland of oil. The | :17:20. | :17:24. | |
one thing everyone agrees on is that Westminster is not right for | :17:24. | :17:30. | |
Scotland. We should not look at these and go to articles by Patrick | :17:30. | :17:36. | |
Harvey? People in the yes campaign agree that Westminster is not | :17:36. | :17:42. | |
working for Scotland. If we stay in the UK, we will -- will carry on | :17:42. | :17:48. | |
not getting governments we want. said the other day, somewhat | :17:48. | :17:54. | |
bizarrely, but they would never have been a financial Scotland if | :17:54. | :18:00. | |
you had been independent. That is incorrect. Is Scotland had been | :18:00. | :18:07. | |
independent, we might not have needed the banking bail-out. | :18:07. | :18:17. | |
According to the F T today, RBS is about to pay �250 million in | :18:17. | :18:23. | |
bonuses to the division that was involved in the interest rate | :18:23. | :18:28. | |
scandal. Do you think you're right to pay those bonuses? I personally | :18:28. | :18:33. | |
do not, but it is a decision for that company to make. If the UK | :18:33. | :18:37. | |
government have a sizable stake in RBS, it is partly their decision as | :18:37. | :18:43. | |
well. But you are the head of the yes campaign. This company will be | :18:43. | :18:47. | |
regulated in Scotland. Do you think Stephen Hester is wrong to do this? | :18:47. | :18:54. | |
I think banking bonuses have created a lot of cynicism. | :18:54. | :18:58. | |
would say to Stephen Hester, do not do this? I disagree with excessive | :18:58. | :19:03. | |
banking bonuses. Given what you were saying the other day about the | :19:03. | :19:10. | |
financial crisis, you would reject absolutely any idea that financial | :19:10. | :19:13. | |
regulation in an independent Scotland should be left to the | :19:13. | :19:17. | |
banking industry? The fish has -- the Fiscal Commission is about to | :19:17. | :19:23. | |
report, and arguments on both sides on a complex and technical issue. | :19:23. | :19:28. | |
The valid point I was making was that if Scotland had been an | :19:28. | :19:32. | |
independent country, just like other countries but Norway and | :19:32. | :19:38. | |
Australia, babe did not spell out their banks. I think the UK | :19:38. | :19:43. | |
government and the fine edge to services authority were asleep at | :19:43. | :19:50. | |
the will. If you are right, you would reject absolutely any | :19:50. | :19:52. | |
suggestion that an independent Scotland should leave regulation of | :19:52. | :19:57. | |
its banks to the Bank of England? Otherwise, what you said does not | :19:57. | :20:01. | |
make sense. The overall arrangements for the sterling zone | :20:01. | :20:09. | |
there will have to deal with the issues around what is harmonised | :20:10. | :20:18. | |
across the UK. I think is right to be part of the pound currency, and | :20:18. | :20:23. | |
remain in that financial settlement. But that is for the benefit of | :20:23. | :20:32. | |
Scotland and the rest of the UK. Even Alastair Darling has said that | :20:32. | :20:36. | |
if Scotland votes yes, it would be desirable and logical for Scotland | :20:36. | :20:44. | |
to carry on being part of the Stirling's own. -- the pound | :20:44. | :20:54. | |
:20:54. | :20:54. | ||
sterling zone. But the campaign say that they are responsible for the | :20:54. | :21:02. | |
lax financial regulation in the first place. You should be saying, | :21:02. | :21:11. | |
Alastair Darling is right? What I am saying is that even people who | :21:11. | :21:15. | |
do not support Scottish independence, including Alastair | :21:15. | :21:20. | |
Darling, say that if Scotland votes yes, it makes sense for everyone in | :21:20. | :21:23. | |
the British Isles to pot Scotland to be part of the pound sterling | :21:23. | :21:33. | |
:21:33. | :21:39. | ||
zone. But separate casino banking from vanilla banking? My personal | :21:39. | :21:44. | |
view is that there is a good case for separating High Street banking | :21:44. | :21:48. | |
from investment banking. We have to leave it there. Very quickly, | :21:48. | :21:51. | |
leave it there. Very quickly, tomorrow's front pages. The | :21:52. | :21:56. | |
watchdog hits out at referendum confusion. There's a picture of | :21:56. | :22:02. | |
what might be like the ballot paper there. The Financial Times has the | :22:02. | :22:07. |