26/11/2013 Newsnight Scotland

is a culture adults know very little about. -- violence in sex. That will

have to change of young victims of abuse are going to get the help they

really need. Tonight on Newsnight Scotland:

We're back to the Scottish Government's white paper. I've been

speaking at length to the First Minister.

Good evening. That's it, then. There's some big ticket items at

stake in this campaign, from NATO to the EU, from Trident to North Sea

oil. But today's white paper also saw a clear concentration from the

Scottish Government on a couple of the social issues which might appeal

to wavering voters on the doorstep. Suzanne Allan has been examining

what the white paper has to offer. It was the day that was supposed to

give answers to all of the questions. It was the day that the

Government needed to win over the doubters. For an independent

Scotland could have the eighth highest economic output on the 10th

highest output per head of population in the whole of the

developed world. Government say it is the most comprehensive guide to a

new state ever produced. What is special about the document is that

it combines vision with lots of detail and the practicalities of

independence. It demonstrates the benefits to Scotland, the social,

economic and democratic benefits of independence. So did it?

Commentators pointed out there was not a novel lot of new stuff in the

much heralded white paper. It has to be said that for the most part, what

we have heard this morning, both from Mister Salmond and Nicola

Sturgeon and Alistair Darling, it has been pretty substantial

recycling of old arguments. Water is is a for that hard to reach group,

woman. In the UK, we face of the highest childcare costs in Europe.

Parents of Scotland spend 27% of their income on childcare. Today's

announcement would mean that by the end of the first Scottish

Parliament, every three-year-old, four-year-old, and vulnerable

to-year-old with the equivalent to 30 hours of childcare week. At the

moment, the average is around 12 and a half hours. Others be enough to

lure working mums back to the workplace and into the polling

booth? What is in fish and would be very expensive and it is also

predicated, it seems to be predicated, on maximising the woman

in a labour market. That depends on women's willingness to engage in the

Labour market and the availability of jobs as well. Yes, I am sure it

is feasible. It happens elsewhere. That it is ambitious. I think

actually that is what the white paper needed, little bit of

ambition. From the very young to the older generation. Scots do not live

as long to enjoy their pensions. The Government say they intend to set up

an independent commission to consider the appropriate state

pension age. Currently, Westminster has fans to eventually move to 67.

The 6th of April 2016, new pensioners will receive a special

Scottish pension, ?1 ten per week higher than the rate currently

expected for the UK. -- ?1.10 per week. Nicola McEwan says that

although we did not have the blueprint, as part of the white

paper is tantamount to the redesign of a whole new stars to duty system.

There is a lot of continuity. What is different is the decision to put

a halt on the roll-out of Universal Credit. -- a whole new security

system. This is the system that is being reformed by the UK Government

in its welfare reform agenda. It has been very controversial so far.

Scottish Government has only really said that it would abolish the

bedroom tax and not have the bedroom tax in independence. The document

today says that it would stop the roll-out of Universal Credit. That

implies a totally new social protection system. But no sooner had

the ink dried on the white paper than the other parties were lining

up to accuse the Government of empty promises. Does she not realise how

absurd the Government looks when the white paper says the Bank of England

will be a lender of last resort? Is she not understand that even if

there was a currency union, there would be no fiscal independence,

contrary to what you said on the radio this morning? Is she not

leading project wish against budget reality, as will come cruising the

clear over the months ahead. If the Deputy First Minister wants to prove

that this pledge is not retail politics, not jotted down on the

back of a cigarette packet, can't you tell of how much this policy

would cost was to mark how much per year 1140 hours of charge from all

children from age one to school will cost and why is the cost and not in

the document? If we were able as an example to bring our levels of

female participation in the workforce to the level of Sweden,

incompatible independent country, we would have increased tax revenues in

the region of ?700 million every year. That is the kind of revenue

that then funds that policy. That is the reason you need independence to

do this. The whole of the white paper, not

surprisingly, left the Better Together campaign distinctly

unimpressed. Never have we seen so many words used to say so little. It

is a major disappointment for me, as somebody who wants to see the

quality of this debate improve, that the biggest use, that those who want

to take Scotland out of the United Kingdom have got to answer, remain

unanswered. -- the big issues. Up until today, the polls remain

stubbornly against the Government. They hope these doorstep, punter

friendly policies will be the ones to turn it around.

Earlier today, I met the First Minister at the Parliament. I put it

to him, in the light of the controversy over his plans for a

currency union, that such a union has to be permanent. All currency

positions are advocated in a degree of permanency. You do not foresee

any other position when you make your policy. If you see there is a

hen that Scotland might later pull out of it, that is an invitation to

the markets, is it not? At various times, government and Prime Minister

is his advocated Stirling joining the euro. That was Tony Blair's

policy. Things change over time but you do not have to watch your first

preference. But like you would have to convince the markets that this

was permanent. You cannot speculate against a currency union. That is

not what happens. Currencies speculate against each other, not

within them. If there was any hint that Scotland might pull out of it,

that is an open invitation to the markets to put a premium of

Scotland's debt and bond issues and start playing it off against this,

exactly as we have seen in the Eurozone. Yes but the big difference

between Scotland, England and the Eurozone is that this is an optimal

currency zone whereas in the Eurozone there is vast differences.

Only if you commit to a permanent currency. No, the reason that

certain countries are in trouble is that productivity is so much lower

than in Germany and therefore they have to borrow more and they borrow

at a premium. It is not because people do not believe the Eurozone

is permanent. It is because they are weak economies with a big difference

between them and Germany. We do not have that differential. It is why

this is an optimal currency area. Presumably, your message to the

likes of the chairman of the 's campaign, who would rather not be

part of a currency union, is that if we enter into this, we have to stick

to it. -- chairman of the yes campaign. That was your point. I

have pointed out that within the UK politics, we have a primary stars

like Tony Blair and all logical parties -- whole political parties

that advocated membership of the euro. People are entitled to put

forward policies that the Jews. It is possible should another party

when the Scottish election within a year to that we would not have a

currency union. I certainly hope that another party does not win it

but nonetheless people can choose their parties and policies. For

Scotland, or for the rest of United Kingdom, people in a democracy or

free to choose. I presume that Plan B, although it is not spilled out

but it is inconceivable that you do not have one, it would be

irresponsible, is just to use Stirling anyway? No, we are putting

forward what we believe would be part of the negotiations. We are

putting it forward not just because it is in the best interests of

Scotland but the best interests of the rest of the UK. Or example, we

accept in the document that Scotland will have to finance a share of UK

debt. We accept that and in the document gives parameters as to what

that share may be. I think it is paid 75. That on the basis that we

know that the UK are not going to get themselves into a position of

trying to claim of the assets of the country, like Stirling, and then

allowed Scotland to escape the liabilities which Alistair Darling

and George Osborne have held up. That is why we make the suction that

we will have to take on responsibility for financing a share

of the UK national debt. There have been suggestions from the SNP, some

people in the SNP leadership, that if George Osborne is in fact telling

us what he really believes, and did not accept a currency union, you

might not accept a share of UK debt. That is not serious, is it? I think

that was allocated to me. The point I made, and it is the one that I

have made to you now, the reason I know that they will accept, one of

these three reasons that they will accept the pound area, is because

they will not allow themselves to claim the assets because then they

would not be able to palm off the liabilities. Because no responsible

UK Government would adopt that position because they will want

Scotland to adopt financing a share of national debt, that is why we

shall arise at a position of a share equitably of assets. If I was in the

British Government, I would say that deserves a prize for complicated

philosophy. It is not... That he will not be bound for any of that.

It is not compensated. If the UK Government ever got itself into a

position of saying, as someone said recently, a continuing state so we

are in the position where we will keep all of the assets of this

discussion then they would also be stuck with the liabilities and these

are considerable. They have piled up huge amounts of National Grid. They

would be making everybody in Scotland ?20,000 richer overnight.

The UK Government will not allow itself to be in that position so it

is one of three overwhelming reasons why it is in the interests of

Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom to agree in the Stirling

area. One of the things you keep saying is that the risk to Scotland

being in the European Union is because of David Cameron's proposed

referendum. The Scotland becomes independent and UK leaves the

European Union, what happens to your currency union? Speaker at the

position is unaltered. We will be in a different currency from the euro,

as many members of the European Union are at the present time. So

you think of the EU would have no problem with Scotland being in a

currency agreement with a country that is not in the EU? The matter of

concern for European unionists would be whether we have European union

members who are not in your area. This has been totally discredited

because the euro membership is voluntary, in the sensitive a

voluntary decision to enter into the European monetary system or not and

you have to be in it for two years. That is why countries like lead and

are not in the euro. If you're not in the euro, that is the only matter

of concern. -- like Sweden. For it to impact on the UK economy. If you

are not in the euro you are using another currency. The other currency

you use is not matter of concern. The argument is, can Scotland be

forced to adopt the euro, the answer to that is no. There is clear

agreement on that, which there wasn't earlier in the year. There

are reports coming out of Brussels this afternoon that Europe editor

Gavin Hewitt has spoke to officials, it's unnamed officials, what they

seem to be saying is that when it comes to Scotland's membership of

the European Union, they would not even begin to negotiate on that

until negotiations between an independent Scotland and the United

Kingdom on the financial arrangements were finished? The

negotiations with the United Kingdom and with Europe would start as soon

as Scots vote for independence. Can I give you a clear contradiction as

to why that cannot be the case. The European Commission invited

discussions on the Scottish membership and their opinion on it.

The only thing stopping it happening, before the vote, is the

you Kingdom government seem not determined to accept the European

Commission offer, despite the fact that Scotland said they are happy to

discussion the negotiations. It's not the just currency where you

assume that the rest of the UK would do what Scotland want. On re nu gy

you say it's reasonable that electricity consumers in England,

Wales and Northern Ireland would continue to subsidise Scottish

renewables. This already is signalled up as being one of the

biggest issues in the next general election, why can you assume with

that when people are fed up paying their electricity bills. Why should

people in theest of the UK want to subsidise through their electricity

bills a Scottish re nu yabl nergy agency when Scotland walks off with

the oil money? There was an accord for a common energy market, not just

in Britain, across the islands. That was done in 2011. Secondly, I

suppose for the practical reason that without Scottish renewable

electricity right now, the lights in England would go off right now. I

don't think anyone wants to reasonably advocate that policy. Of

saying, look, if we are going to pay this through our electricity bills

let's develop a re nu ble energy in Wales, Northern Ireland or England

or nuclear power stations which which is our only plan and supply

clean energy that way, why should we subsidise an independent Scotland?

Because the English government, English local authorities had

trouble developing re nu ble energy. That is why they are short at the

moment. A nuclear strategy, it's clear from the deal just signed that

is a far more expensive than the renewables policy. Secondly, won't

be available for another 1 o 0 years. Have done it? They have done

the first station, for another 10 years. The shortage of supply for

England in electricity is less than two years hence, according to Ofgem.

If Scottish renewables weren't available would be right now. That

is why we put forward in the document why it suits the interests

of Scotland and England. It's - The possibility is the tenor of it is,

pull the other one, it's got bells on? In the circumstances where it's

undoubtedly correct England is short of electricity. There is no doubt

about that, they are extremely worried about the shortage of supply

over demand in two winters' time. They are sounding alarm bells of the

time. No-one is seriously going to suggest that we turn off some seven

or eight gigawatts of Scottish electricity that flows from Scotland

to England at the moment - I'm not saying they would throw a switch. It

would be credible to have an energy policy which in the medium term took

them away from the lines of Scottish energy. There would be political

pressure in England to do that? The medium term position is that

Scottish renewables are cheaper than in England because the wind blows

more in Scotland. That is why we have been able to develop renewable

energy more cheaper. Our exports are cheaper and competitive that is why

that supply is likely to continue. What do you say to people that they

care that Britain is major country in the world, member of the

permanent Security Council in the United Nations and has impact on

world events. The debate in Syria which helped to stop the Syria

bombing Damascus. They convinced a sceptical Obama administration to

take action in Syria. Britain punches its way. If Norway, Denmark,

Sweden or Ireland it been at the forefront of these things, people

might have listened it wouldn't have made a decisive difference. Why

would we want to give up having that rule in the world? There are two

arguments. I wouldn't under rate the influence that small countries can

have. Nothing like that? I think the application of soft power and

leadership by example can be very important. For example, our clement

justice - Nothing like the examples I gave you? You gave me experience,

there is intervention in Iraq would be an argument where, yes, of course

you can say that was influential, but most people in Scotland would

think it was influential in the wrong direction. If it was

influential in the wrong direction, it was - I'm not saying the

Americans wouldn't have invaded the Iraq if Britain had said no, having

Britain on side was very important. There are ties between Ireland and

the United States, how many people inside the beltway, as they call it

in Washington, would know, never mind care, what Ireland's position

on Iraq was? Well, I think Ireland would prefer to have its position on

Iraq as opposed to the UK's position on Iraq. Most people in Scotland

would have rather - That is not addressing the point I make about

influence, I take it you disagree with the war in Iraq, I understand

that, fair enough. We have the power to have an influence? I see. We

should celebrate or welcome the fact to have the power to have influence

in participating in an illegal war. You know that is not what I'm

saying. You lent yourself to the example. Most people in Scotland

would say, look, if Scotland, which can have and has had substanceal

influence in the world through leadership of example, for the many

friends we have internationally, then that would be a really good

thing to have as opposed to pretending to be a world power which

often is what Westminster governments do. Let me end by

talking about youngsters. You were keen to have 16 and 17-year-olds

voting in this referendum. There was a schools poll done in SNP

heartland, Aberdeen shire recently, among school students in secondary

schools. A huge thing. Not like an opinion poll, this was 11,000

students, if I'm right, took part. 5% of them voted no to independence.

Now, it may be they are great fans of Alistair Darling and Alastair

Carmichael, I kind of doubt it, it may be that they are British

nationalist, as sometimes supporters of independence say, if you are not

Scottish nationalist, you are a British nationalists I doubt they

will see themselves as that as well. It's more in the early years of the

21st century with all the things we are interested in, what is going on

in Syria, technology, the rise of China, surely sitting around talking

about whether Scotland should be independent is just irrelevant? It

might be that people are waiting to hear the arguments and they might be

looking to see how it will make a difference to people's lives. Why I

believe we will win this campaign is the things we are talking about,

like getting rid of the bedroom tax, transformation in childcare, new

jobs and new investment in Scotland will be of greater interest to young

people in Aberdeen shire and elsewhere than the sort of things

that the no campaign is banging on about. I don't think they are the

least concerned about the negativity of the no campaign. They want to

hear from the yes campaign how our proposals - That is why they said we

will vote no. That is why we launched the white paper. That is

why - What would you say to downsisters who say - we are

concerned what will happen in the 21st century we are having a debate

in the late 19th century? The young people of Scotland, and others, are

interested in positive inititives that change their lives and change

things for the better in Scotland. We aren on the ground and it enables

us to put that forward. People young and old will rally behind that

perspectous. With enormous respect, these things, issues like bedroom

tax, issues like childcare, and more jobs for Scotland will win this

campaign. How do I know they will win the campaign? These things

electrify the attention, not just of young people in Scotland, but the

electorate. As we campaign about this, it will allow the no campaign

to campaign about what ever nusiance they can find. Much sign of people

being electrified? We launched the white paper today. The referendum is

next September. Let the campaign play out. You can ask me about the

result the Kay day afterwards. I'm joined now by our in-house experts

par excellence, Douglas Fraser and Brian Taylor. It's terribly

reasonable. There are a few threats hidden under this, this idea that

somehow or other if Alex Salmond doesn't get his currency union,

Scotland wouldn't accept a share of the national debt? Yes. It is is

something he will emphasise in some interviews and less so in others.

Nicola Sturgeon is much more reluctant to say it than others. The

notion is that the pound, sterling, currency system is an asset which

can be split up. If they don't get what they want, the assets they

think they deserve, then the liabilities around debt are

obviously the other side of that led goer. One of the problems, there is

a logic to that, clearly, one of the problems with that is that sterling,

a currency system is not an asset. You can't split it up. It's not

something where you get an 8. 4 population share. , a country which

became independent while refusing to accept a share of the country it was

breaking away froms debt that organisations like the World Bank

and the IMF would presumably take an interest in this? A close interest

and the bond markets. As soon Ascot land becomes independent, if that is

what is voted for, there are bonds need to be issued in order to pay

for the deficit, which we would be running at least initially and

probably for many years, the bond market is where we would have to go

repeatedly. You would have to sustain a reputation for being

willing to pay back what you owe. If the first thing you do before you

get independence is to repudiate debt because you are having a

political spat with your neighbour, the bond market may take a certain

look at it. You need to be careful what signals you send to them. The

first question this morning, last word on Newsnight, what did you make

of it I'm struck by the second front. We have been used to the idea

of offering reassurance on the currency, monarchy and the European

Union. We have been used to the counter arguments on that, which is

that those reassurances cannot be given as guarantees by the Scottish

Government alone, they require other parties to take part and to agree

and the suggestion from opponents of Mr Salmond is those guarantees that,

that support, that endorsement may not be readily forthcoming. We got a

second front. You heard it in the interview you conducted with Mr

Salmond. The Q A section of this white paper is the largest. The Q is

- what is in it for me? The classic voter question. It's entirely a list

of offers to family-friendly policies such as mildly enhancing

pensions and particularly over the period enhancing childcare very

substantially indeed. With regard to that, Alex Salmond is offering that

duel path, the attempted reassurance. There is a challenge to

the offers on policies as well, a challenge as to whether they are

affordable. Alex Salmond is trying to go over the heads of the

politician. He is trying to bypass the aspects of this debate and make

a blunt offer to the voters. This is what is in it for you. The problem

they have, obviously, on things like the currency, it's not really in

their gift to say whether they can deliver it or not No, correct.

Saying - suggestion that is part of it and that by not resolving this

issue, if you like, they are hoping to bypass it rather than resolve it?

The currency is hugely important issue. Things like NATO and EU

member. His calculation is that voters presume these things would be

sorted out somehow with regard to the EU and NATO. They go back to the

question - what is in it for me? The view among voters, there is not

hostility to independence, there is anxiety, concern, fretfulness and

doubt. Alex Salmond is twieg to offer he are assurance on those

concerns. He is trying to do that with the idea of continuity or on

things like EU and the currency and monarchy. He is making an offer on

enhancing the welfare and benefit and provisions for Scotland's

families. Their rivals can counter that in terms of affordability, Alex

Salmond believes that is a message that will resonate with the voters.

You know, the document was launched in the Science Centre, politic tics

can sometimes be -- politics can sometimes be a dark art.

I was struck at Alex Salmond's reluctance to commit himself, he

said he would go into a currency agreement with the rest of the UK on

the assumption that it was permanent but did not want to commit itself to

telling people that their dreams of getting out of it later were not

realistic. He did not want to commit to it. I just wonder whether there

is a hostage to fortune in that. Firstly, with the British Government

who will be saying that they are not even serious and also with the

financial markets. Back to the bond markets as well. If you're going to

make a currency alliance, it needs to have a permanent strip. He is was

the right when he says that politicians in Britain talk about

joining the euro but you're going to have to convince the markets that

you are serious. If you take the Eurozone as an example, if the

Greeks or the Germans, two ends of the spectrum, said that they are bit

fed up and it was not working out, the markets pounds. You need to be

absolutely clear that you are sticking with it. Until such point

as he -- you decide to blood. Quinn on the basis that you might pull out

if something better comes along -- you decide to pull out. Going on the

basis that you might pull out of something better comes along later

then it weakens the case. That is one of the problems with the Plan B

that they are being asked about repeatedly. If the answer that

question, they get themselves into trouble. I have to sympathise to

some extent. Lets end on youngsters. I find it very top tune that Alex

Salmond 's Institute -- seemed to suggest that the children of

Aberdeenshire were waiting for his white paper. There had been an

expectation that the young voters would deliver a substantial degree

of support to independence. I stress it is not appear but it does not

appear to be the case of even of all of the youngsters of Scotland turned

their heads against independence, there impact among the wider vote is

not all that substantial. There is not a substantial number. Their

contribution is welcome, I am just talking arithmetic rather than being

patronising! I will have to leave it there. Thank you very much. A quick

look at tomorrow's front pages. There is a picture of Alex Salmond

and Nicola Sturgeon. This is the American edition. We will show you

it by magic. There is also a picture of Alex Salmond.

That is all from me tonight. Join me tomorrow at 10:30pm. Jackie Bird,

Glen Campbell and I will be putting John Swinney and one lamb and

through their paces. Good night. -- and Johann Lamont.

For a lot of us, tomorrow will start off quite drizzly, particularly in

the Pennines. In the afternoon, there is a chance of a bit of

sunshine. We think towards the east of the Pennines, Lincolnshire, Hull,

the north-east. Some sunshine also. Notice that the Southeast, all the

way through the Isle of Wight and Sussex, this is where we will have

those low grey skies. For the south-west of the country, although

all fairly cloudy. Temperatures of around 10 degrees. Light winds but a

bit of sunshine around. It looks like it will be one solid area of

cloud. There will be at least one or two breaks from time to time. As we

head towards the north-west of the country, Northern Ireland and the

Western Isles, cloudy here and that pieces of drizzle but the other side

of Scotland around five and Aberdeenshire age should be little