17/11/2011 Newsnight


17/11/2011

Analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Emily Maitlis. Who are the Free Syrian Army, and do they stand a real chance of deposing President Assad?


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Tonight, armed insurrection in Syria, how close is the country to

:00:10.:00:16.

outright civil war? President Assad's opponents have

:00:16.:00:20.

weapons and man power, but are they anything like strong enough to

:00:20.:00:24.

bring him down. One of the few journalists to operate undercover

:00:24.:00:30.

in Syria, examines who the Free Syria Army are.

:00:30.:00:33.

Nearly 200 are arrested as The Oxford Murders Wall Street group

:00:34.:00:37.

march on New York, what will the movement change? We will hear from

:00:37.:00:43.

a supporter in New York a former Goldman Sachs banker. After the

:00:43.:00:47.

insults, accusations and the crass interventions of the FIFA chief. We

:00:47.:00:51.

examine whether English football really does have a problem with

:00:51.:00:57.

racism. I had a letter from Crystal Palace, it said we don't want any

:00:57.:01:01.

black people here, stay away but "N", we have a bullet for you.

:01:01.:01:05.

Scientists can work out which events are caused by global warming,

:01:05.:01:13.

and how it could all end up in the courts.

:01:13.:01:17.

Is Syria on the brink of civil war? After months of Government

:01:17.:01:23.

oppression, the fightback has started in ernest. The Free Syrian

:01:23.:01:27.

Army is taking on as an opposition force and means business, and

:01:27.:01:30.

crucially is able to use military force against President Assad's

:01:30.:01:33.

forces. Nobody knows about the group, who funds it, who are the

:01:33.:01:39.

members, and will it be able to overthrow the dictator whose

:01:39.:01:47.

dynasty has clung on to power in this state for decades. Sue Lloyd-

:01:47.:01:49.

Roberts is one of the few journalists who has worked

:01:49.:01:52.

undercover in the country, here is her report.

:01:52.:01:57.

It had been business as usual in Syria today, demonstrations taking

:01:57.:02:01.

place throughout the country, the army opening fire, and an ever-

:02:01.:02:04.

increasing death toll. After the last bloody few days, the number of

:02:04.:02:09.

dead is now greater than the 3,500 announced by the United Nations

:02:09.:02:17.

last week. In Homs, the so-called capital of

:02:17.:02:22.

the revolution, tanks and heavy weapons have continued to bombard

:02:22.:02:27.

civilian areas. And many have been killed, even after, angry

:02:27.:02:30.

condemnation from Syria's neighbours and beyond. Since I

:02:30.:02:34.

reported from Homs four weeks ago, where I was able to mingle freely

:02:34.:02:38.

with the demonstrators, the situation has deteriorated

:02:38.:02:41.

dramatically. With the recent new international condemnation, people

:02:41.:02:46.

are beginning to talk about the beginning of the end of the

:02:46.:02:50.

Government of Bashar al-Assad. But if that is the case, how will the

:02:50.:02:54.

regime be toppled? What will take its place? The nature of the

:02:54.:02:59.

protest has been altered by a now defiant and widespread armed

:02:59.:03:06.

resistance. The newly formed Free Syrian Army, claim to number

:03:06.:03:10.

between 10,000-15,000, they post their defections and alleged

:03:10.:03:14.

victories on YouTube. The odd tank seized from the regular army, and

:03:14.:03:19.

in their boldest move yet, yesterday an attack on an army

:03:19.:03:23.

intelligence base near Damascus. They are getting weapons smuggled

:03:23.:03:27.

in from Lebanon. I put to their leader that daily defections is one

:03:27.:03:32.

thing, but military experts say they can't make a real impact,

:03:32.:03:36.

until they get a tank division come over to their side. TRANSLATION:

:03:37.:03:44.

until now we have only been small groups of defectors from army units,

:03:44.:03:47.

there hasn't been anything bigger, as you say, because we do not have

:03:47.:03:51.

a secure area where we can keep tanks. If we had a buffer zone, we

:03:51.:03:56.

would see defections on a bigger scale. REPORTER: What legitimacy do

:03:56.:04:02.

you have, the regime would say you are a rebel trait rouse army?

:04:02.:04:06.

TRANSLATION: It is far as the Syrian people are concerned, the

:04:06.:04:10.

Syrian regime is the illegitimate one, we earned our legitimacy from

:04:10.:04:14.

the street and demonstrations. In all demonstrations now you can see

:04:14.:04:21.

people support the Free Syrian Army. The demonstrations appear to be

:04:21.:04:24.

increasing in number around the country and they are becoming

:04:24.:04:29.

bolder and more inclusive. Today we see many more women, students and

:04:29.:04:33.

children joining the protest. The regime has always claimed that the

:04:33.:04:38.

big cities, like Damascus, have not so far joined in, in big numbers.

:04:38.:04:43.

When I spoke to a local opposition leader in Damascus today, she

:04:43.:04:53.
:04:53.:04:57.

denied this. Many areas inside Damascus witnessed huge

:04:57.:05:02.

demonstrations. Many people filled in the places. Every day there is

:05:02.:05:07.

daily protests in all these areas. Opposition leaders also claim that

:05:07.:05:12.

the protest is uniting sectarian divisions in Syria. It is not just

:05:12.:05:17.

the Sunni majority rebelling against President Assad's Alawites

:05:17.:05:23.

elite. But they say Christians, and Kurds, all want to see the fall of

:05:23.:05:29.

the regime. That says one Marionite Christian, living in neighbouring

:05:29.:05:32.

Lebanon, is too simplified a story, there have been sectarian killings

:05:32.:05:36.

by opposition groups, which bode ill for the future. We are also

:05:36.:05:41.

witnessing some elements of civil war. You know Sue, and I think you

:05:41.:05:44.

know we have witnessed many sectarian killings in Syria in the

:05:44.:05:51.

last few weeks, civilians being killed. Both the regime and the

:05:51.:05:55.

armed insurgency have carried out executions of civilians. So the

:05:55.:05:59.

reality is we are seeing the beginning, but yet, if Syria

:05:59.:06:05.

plunges into a prolonged conflict, there is a, I think, a likelihood,

:06:05.:06:11.

that this particular armed conflict could take on sectarian and tribal

:06:11.:06:14.

conotations, and basically spread into neighbouring countries. The

:06:14.:06:22.

reason why millions of Syrians in Damascus and the areas have not

:06:22.:06:25.

joined the protests so fashion they fear the morning after, they fear

:06:25.:06:30.

Syria could go the Iraq and Lebanon way. I'm not the only one saying no

:06:30.:06:39.

so. Millions of Syrians fear this political struggle could escalate

:06:39.:06:45.

into all-out civil war. The Free Syrian Army is appealing to the

:06:45.:06:52.

United Nations for more weapons, and a no-fly zone so they can

:06:52.:06:58.

operate in it. How long do they give the dictator? TRANSLATION:

:06:58.:07:02.

give it months, the army is struggling economically, and

:07:02.:07:05.

soldiers are exhausted after eight months on the streets. That comes

:07:05.:07:09.

from an army pleading for weapons for what they say could be a quick

:07:09.:07:13.

solution to a problem that is beginning to frighten the outside

:07:13.:07:16.

world. The word from the street, and from those living in

:07:16.:07:21.

neighbouring countries, is that there is no immediate end in sight.

:07:21.:07:26.

The reality is, I think, now, my take and I hope I am wrong, is that

:07:26.:07:35.

Syria has reached a point of no return. Joining me now are two

:07:35.:07:38.

Syrian opposition representatives, speaking for the Syrian National

:07:38.:07:42.

Council, the leading coalition of Syrian opposition groups, joining

:07:42.:07:48.

me from Paris, and a founding member of Building The Syrian State,

:07:48.:07:54.

a separate opposition group. I want to start with you, why do

:07:54.:07:58.

you remain outside what is seen by many as the best chance that Syria

:07:58.:08:01.

has now of comprehensively overthrowing the regime? What do

:08:01.:08:09.

you mean we are still outside? do you remain outside, you know,

:08:09.:08:14.

the main Syrian National Council, which is seen as the body for doing

:08:14.:08:19.

that? I think the Syrian opposition map is far more spread and complex

:08:19.:08:25.

than just one single body in coalition. They are an important

:08:25.:08:27.

player but not the only player. There are far more important ones

:08:27.:08:31.

on the ground, inside Syria, those who are playing on the battleground.

:08:31.:08:35.

These are the groups I support and I work with. I think they have a

:08:36.:08:41.

better chance to evaluate where the balance of the forces is, and reach

:08:41.:08:46.

the situation from inside. I respect their views. Their means

:08:46.:08:49.

are more coming from inside. The solutions they put forward are

:08:49.:08:54.

coming from inside Syria. We want it to be supported from the outside.

:08:54.:08:58.

We are happy to work with the SNC, we don't necessarily have to join,

:08:58.:09:03.

we can work on common plans. Why does the whole Syrian opposition

:09:04.:09:11.

have to go under one umbrella. does it have to? Go under

:09:11.:09:16.

unumbrelia, other places have been overthrown without coalitions.

:09:16.:09:20.

that right you can have disparate groups and separate groups, you

:09:20.:09:22.

don't need to be a unified opposition at this point? I think

:09:22.:09:27.

it is a bit unfair to expect that there would be 100% of the

:09:27.:09:32.

opposition standing together. However, I think the case in Syria

:09:32.:09:38.

is different from Egypt and Tunisia, because of the complexties of

:09:38.:09:43.

Syrian society, but also of the regional environment. For that

:09:43.:09:48.

reason there is much anxiety inside the country and much anxiety among

:09:48.:09:53.

neighbours, that things could go the wrong way, if the regime were

:09:53.:10:01.

to go. I think the regime is today, the main responsible for the

:10:01.:10:04.

direction that the issues, that the situation is taking on the ground,

:10:04.:10:09.

and if we are speaking of risks of civil war, this is the

:10:09.:10:12.

responsibility, this has been actively encouraged by the regime.

:10:12.:10:18.

But we need an opposition, I think this is why we are working on

:10:18.:10:21.

unifying ranks. We need an opposition that presents the

:10:21.:10:28.

country, the people, those who are frightened, as well as the outside,

:10:28.:10:31.

with an alternative. An alternative that says all of these political

:10:31.:10:34.

groups have come together around one objective. This objective is

:10:35.:10:40.

the overthrowing of the regime. get to that objective, sorry, is it

:10:40.:10:45.

necessary to have armed force s that the only way you will do this?

:10:45.:10:50.

Obviously I think what is happening on the ground is the absence of a

:10:50.:10:55.

political plan, put forward by a strong, powerful, unified

:10:55.:10:59.

opposition. This is what needs to be actively done, and this is what

:10:59.:11:02.

is currently under way. The unification of ranks between the

:11:02.:11:06.

main groups of the opposition, coming out with one joint objective,

:11:07.:11:14.

but not only an objective, but also a road map. How to go about doing

:11:14.:11:18.

that what are the concrete steps to take. What is the way forward for

:11:18.:11:21.

the end of this regime. Understanding that this common

:11:21.:11:25.

objective is what the street wants, is what the revolution, forces on

:11:25.:11:29.

the ground, people on the ground are asking for the end of this

:11:29.:11:34.

regime, the end of President Bashar al-Assad himself. The objectives

:11:34.:11:38.

are clearly the same. What about the Free Syrian Army, what position

:11:38.:11:42.

would they play in this? I can't determine their position.

:11:42.:11:46.

asking this in the studio? I don't think I can determine their

:11:46.:11:52.

position. I mean, you know, the army won't listen to me, won't

:11:52.:11:56.

listen probably to other politicians. They have their own

:11:56.:12:00.

tools, and means. We are trying to argue for a political process.

:12:00.:12:05.

However, I would like to follow up on what was argued. I totally agree,

:12:05.:12:11.

we need a road map to unite around. You promised studies, papers, two

:12:11.:12:16.

months on, we haven't seen one single political paper issued by

:12:16.:12:20.

the SNC, if there was something to unite around we could have united

:12:20.:12:26.

around it. You promised a road map, we haven't heard back from you,

:12:26.:12:30.

personally we sent e-mails we haven't heard yes and no, how with

:12:30.:12:34.

can we unite when you don't respond to a discussion about a unified

:12:34.:12:38.

plan. In the Libyan scenario, there was a clear forward case, there was

:12:38.:12:42.

a military action, everyone got around that. There isn't a clear

:12:43.:12:45.

way forward. That is a pretty strong allegation for the Syrian

:12:46.:12:49.

National Council, that you don't have a game plan or way forward,

:12:49.:12:52.

and you are not even responding to the kind of communication channels

:12:52.:12:58.

open to you? The plan was put to me personally and I, as the Syrian

:12:58.:13:01.

National Council, can cannot respond personally, it has no value

:13:01.:13:06.

if I put forward a plan. A plan was put forward about three weeks ago

:13:06.:13:11.

now. A programme and a vision of how to go about the transition

:13:11.:13:14.

phase and the building of new institutions. There is a vision,

:13:14.:13:20.

and there is a plan that was put out, and we may not have seen that,

:13:20.:13:25.

if I can send it to her I will, after we finish this programme.

:13:25.:13:30.

Just to say this programme was put forward, it obviously take as bit

:13:30.:13:36.

longer than a small and coherent political group that came together

:13:36.:13:40.

in Syria, the council is a coalition, do not forget that. The

:13:40.:13:44.

coalition is all the political forces are there, the Islamists,

:13:44.:13:48.

the secular, liberals and left- wingers, all of this needs time,

:13:48.:13:57.

and that vision has now, is now on the table. Thank you very much.

:13:57.:14:01.

They call themselves the 99 per cent, the protestors who have taken

:14:01.:14:05.

to call street and attempted to march on the New York Stock

:14:05.:14:11.

Exchange, calling for an end to the inequality that is seeing bankers,

:14:12.:14:16.

the 1%, flourish at the expense of the rest of the population. They

:14:16.:14:20.

have brought the skrisism of rich and poor and say it is getting

:14:20.:14:23.

wider. Today dozens of Occupy Wall Street were arrested at a rally to

:14:23.:14:27.

mark two months of demonstrations. The rally comes on the same day,

:14:27.:14:30.

coincidently, that Northern Rock, the first bank to be nationalised

:14:30.:14:35.

in Britain, was sold at a loss to the taxpayer of at least �400

:14:35.:14:40.

million. Our economics editor is with me now. How are we to make

:14:40.:14:43.

sense of the deal? The deal has to be understood in the context of

:14:44.:14:49.

what happened on nationalisation. They split Northern Rock into and

:14:49.:14:53.

good and bad bank. We have a graphic to explain it. The good

:14:53.:14:57.

bank was sold today, this is the bit that is still trading and has

:14:57.:15:06.

branches and looks for customers to Virgin Money. For about �1. ...well

:15:06.:15:11.

it was told for �850 million and another �850 million for details.

:15:11.:15:16.

The money the Government put into the bank was �1.4 billion, we can

:15:16.:15:23.

say it is nearly a �400 million loss. The bad bank shows you where

:15:23.:15:27.

the challenge is. There is about �45 billion of mortgages, these are

:15:27.:15:30.

mortgages in some way distressed or not great, they didn't want to put

:15:31.:15:36.

them in a good bit. That is propped up with �20 billion worth of UK

:15:36.:15:40.

tax-payers' money, that in the last six months we know about to July

:15:40.:15:44.

had rising arrears, rising danger of default among the mortgage

:15:44.:15:47.

holders. One can't imagine it has got any better in the last six

:15:47.:15:51.

months. We will only know what happens to our �20 billion when we

:15:51.:15:55.

see what happens to the financial crisis. That, as we know, is not

:15:56.:15:59.

over. It is funny, isn't it, each time we are asked to look ahead, is

:15:59.:16:03.

there any sense in your mind that this marks the end of what was

:16:03.:16:08.

started in 2007? We both covered that day, that Northern Rock went

:16:08.:16:12.

bust, if you remember the people in the queues. Think about it, they

:16:12.:16:16.

had seven years of rising house prices, they had four years of

:16:16.:16:18.

rising stock markets, and that sounds like a reasonably long time

:16:18.:16:24.

to get into the mind set of what can go wrong. We have now had four

:16:24.:16:27.

years since Northern Rock went bust, we have had four unrelenting years

:16:27.:16:32.

of crisis, what we know from every headline we see is it is not over.

:16:32.:16:35.

We are expecting further trouble in the European banks, we are

:16:35.:16:40.

expecting trouble in the European sovereign debt market. We are

:16:40.:16:43.

expecting, there is a danger, let's not say expecting, there is a

:16:43.:16:47.

danger that the world will stagnate, or parts of it go once again into

:16:47.:16:51.

recession. This forms the context of what we are now seeing, which is

:16:51.:16:55.

not queues of happyish but resigned people outside busted banks, but

:16:55.:17:01.

what we are about to see. Which is, just coincidently, a whole bunch of

:17:01.:17:05.

iconic images of protest that happened today that I think are

:17:05.:17:12.

becoming the signature tune of 2011. If these were images from some

:17:12.:17:15.

forlorn revolution, in some snaul small forgotten state, they would

:17:15.:17:21.

be striking enough. But this was Portland Oregon today, and this

:17:21.:17:26.

downtown Los Angeles, and on Wall Street, where the US protest

:17:26.:17:33.

movement began, anger. Move, move! The Oxford Murders Wall Street

:17:33.:17:37.

protestors marched on Wall Street, blocked the financial district, and

:17:37.:17:47.
:17:47.:17:47.

clashed with the police. A few on- looking bankers unimpressed. The

:17:47.:17:51.

Twittersphere exploded, peoples per second dropping news, views and

:17:51.:17:55.

accusations, too fast to follow. To an audience across the world, the

:17:55.:17:58.

message behind it all, defiant. They can take the park, they can

:17:58.:18:02.

arrest people, but they can't arrest an idea. But what is the

:18:02.:18:06.

idea? The protestors have refused to engage with the game of

:18:06.:18:10.

political programmes and demands. They have focused on grievances

:18:10.:18:15.

against banks, against inequality, against the 1%. Now, those in power

:18:15.:18:19.

are listening. This, the Senate Majority Leader. We know all that

:18:19.:18:27.

has been said about the 1 how well they have been doing. -- 1%, how

:18:27.:18:30.

well they are doing. The percentage in wealth in America for them has

:18:30.:18:35.

gone up 300%. In Britain it is less spectacular, but what the

:18:35.:18:40.

protestors at St Paul's share with counterparts in New York, is a

:18:40.:18:44.

refusal to articulate political programmes and demands. A refusal

:18:44.:18:48.

to confront power on power's terms. Tonight the Cathedral authorities

:18:48.:18:53.

resumed court action to evict the protest, after a two-week legal

:18:53.:18:57.

truce broke down. The scenes in Athens tonight, the anniversary of

:18:57.:19:02.

the revolution that overthrew the military junta in 1973, had, for

:19:02.:19:07.

some, echos of 1973. This in Madrid, where on the eve of an election,

:19:07.:19:11.

tens of thousands of students marches against education cuts.

:19:11.:19:16.

These are becoming the symbolic images of 2011. If we thought it

:19:16.:19:21.

had begun in Tunis, and ended in Tripoli, we thought wrong.

:19:21.:19:24.

Joining me now from New York is the journalist and activist, Laurie

:19:24.:19:27.

Penny, she was out on the streets today, with The Oxford Murders

:19:27.:19:31.

protestors. Joining me in the studio was Richard Sharp, a former

:19:31.:19:35.

partner at Goldman Sachs, one of four City figures recruited last

:19:35.:19:39.

year by George Osborne to consult on options for reducing the public

:19:39.:19:43.

deficit. Richard Sharp, you visited both these movements, you must be

:19:43.:19:46.

pretty impressed with how they have managed to influence mainstream

:19:46.:19:51.

politics now, aren't you? Well, I was actually disappointed with the

:19:51.:19:56.

demonstrations themselves, in some way. Because there is a generation

:19:56.:20:01.

which does have to care deeply about their future, which is being

:20:01.:20:05.

damaged by the activities of the last 15 years, of Governments and

:20:05.:20:10.

commerce. It has left a legacy of debt and problems that they are

:20:10.:20:14.

experiencing, in seeking employment, and facing a future where they will

:20:14.:20:18.

have to repay the debts associated with expenditure, for which they

:20:18.:20:21.

got no benefit. What are you saying, they are doing the right thing

:20:21.:20:27.

protesting, surely? I thought the demonstrations certainly in New

:20:27.:20:31.

York was, for my mind, at that time, this is only ten days ago, was

:20:31.:20:39.

chaotic and glass sid. It was a tourist - glass sid, it was a

:20:39.:20:43.

tourist spectacle more than protesters. The points made were

:20:43.:20:45.

trivial, there are substantive points but they were not made when

:20:45.:20:48.

I was there. What do you make of that, a demonstration that was

:20:48.:20:55.

chaotic and flaccid? That may have been the scene a dau days ago, but

:20:55.:20:59.

after the eviction of Occupy Wall Street on Tuesday nationwide. The

:20:59.:21:03.

energy has been galvanised again, there were thousands on the streets

:21:03.:21:07.

today. A lot of angry chanting. Banks got bailed out, we got sold

:21:07.:21:13.

out. I saw people on the streets being violently arrested, a lot of

:21:13.:21:17.

anger. There was certainly energy, and not only broad and sweeping

:21:18.:21:21.

ideas for social change, not unified ideas, certainly, but there

:21:21.:21:25.

was also a wonderful moment which I hope someone has captured on camera,

:21:25.:21:29.

where people sat down in the middle of one of the occupied streets and

:21:29.:21:33.

started sharing stories. One woman saying her home had been

:21:33.:21:37.

repossessed, and another public school teacher saying all her

:21:37.:21:40.

students' parents were unemployed. Students, families, workers,

:21:40.:21:43.

everyone coming together to share their stories. This is really what

:21:43.:21:47.

the day has been about, partly. I want to make it clear it wasn't

:21:47.:21:50.

just scenes of violence and of police brutality on the streets.

:21:50.:21:56.

There was also a lot of hope. A lot of joyful defiance, which I think

:21:56.:22:01.

is one of the very important things. What do you make of the fact, then,

:22:02.:22:05.

that despite this joyful defiance, as you put it, broadly there is

:22:05.:22:09.

less public sympathy for you as the protests go on. People are losing

:22:10.:22:15.

faith in you, and finding the demonstrations annoying? 35% of the

:22:15.:22:19.

American public still support The Oxford Murders Wall Street movement,

:22:19.:22:25.

and The Oxford Murders movement. I find it rather disheartening that

:22:25.:22:33.

after about a year of -- the Occupy movement, and find it rather

:22:33.:22:39.

disheartening that you, as a journalist, find it nothing more

:22:39.:22:42.

than an annoyance, this is more than a generation trying to turn

:22:43.:22:47.

around and refigure politics, after having been told all their lives

:22:47.:22:51.

that there is nothing to do to confront capitalism. Broadly, they

:22:51.:22:55.

have managed to bring wealth inequality to the top of the agenda,

:22:55.:22:57.

they have properly spooked President Obama, they have made

:22:57.:23:01.

David Cameron take a very strong stance on bankers' bonuses here.

:23:02.:23:05.

Angela Merkel's talking about the Tobin tax. It doesn't sound that

:23:05.:23:08.

chaotic when you look at how the politicians around the world are

:23:08.:23:14.

responding? Look, we're facing a global economic crisis, that some

:23:14.:23:20.

leading Central Bankers have called unprecedented. What is remarkable

:23:20.:23:25.

is that you have these tiny pockets of people, where it hasn't gathered

:23:25.:23:31.

more momentum, given some of the real pep pep pri vaigs associated

:23:31.:23:35.

with unemployment d deprivation associated with unemployment and

:23:35.:23:38.

the crisis. What would you like to see them doing? There are multiple

:23:38.:23:42.

problems. First of all, the leadership is distributed and not

:23:42.:23:46.

apparent at all. They have damaged their cause by making the cleaning

:23:46.:23:50.

up of the park, and the behaviour that has taken place a bigger story

:23:50.:23:56.

than their objectives. What they have talked about is what they are

:23:56.:24:00.

against, but not what they are for Let's put that to Laurie Penny,

:24:00.:24:05.

what would you like to see changed, in terms of concrete policies, what

:24:05.:24:09.

are you for? I can't speak for The Oxford Murders movement as a whole.

:24:09.:24:14.

I'm just -- the Occupy movement as a whole. I'm just an individual

:24:14.:24:24.
:24:24.:24:26.

associated with the movement. A lot of the movement is for change. In

:24:26.:24:29.

Wall Street, for example, many of the people down on the streets are

:24:29.:24:33.

people who spent a lot of their young lives voting and working for

:24:33.:24:37.

the Obama campaign, these were people promised change at the hands

:24:37.:24:41.

of left-wing politicians, or centre left politicians, and now they are

:24:41.:24:44.

seeing that change is something you have to stand up and take for

:24:44.:24:46.

yourselves. Because politicians, at the moment, they don't see that

:24:46.:24:51.

they are going to deliver it. does that mean, does that mean they

:24:51.:24:56.

want a change to the change Obama promise, they are anti-Obama, or

:24:56.:25:01.

anti-capitalism, what does it mean in defining, tangible terms? Well,

:25:01.:25:05.

there are some people down there, for example, who want to see a

:25:05.:25:11.

return of the certain acts there are some people who want to impose

:25:11.:25:14.

a very limited tax on the wealthy. Some people are asking for

:25:14.:25:19.

revolutionary change, some people are asking just for a little bit

:25:19.:25:29.
:25:29.:25:29.

oflyway, little leeway, and asking that we don't have to pay for the

:25:29.:25:32.

financial recklessness of the superrich. I don't think that is a

:25:32.:25:34.

big thing to ask. One of the reasons you are not hearing an

:25:34.:25:42.

answer, is because this is, in some sense, in a positive way, a -- an

:25:42.:25:45.

argument of the left. The real problem they have is the target

:25:45.:25:50.

should be socialism, in other words, it should be Governments that spent

:25:50.:25:56.

money they didn't have, that...That Is absolute nonsense, excuse me,

:25:56.:26:02.

that is absolute nonsense. We have a massive deficit across the world

:26:02.:26:07.

because of a financial crisis that occurred three years ago and was

:26:07.:26:11.

building up for many years, it was not overspending, we don't have

:26:11.:26:14.

debt because of the public sector, we don't have debt because we spent

:26:14.:26:18.

too much on public services. We have debt because the superrich and

:26:18.:26:22.

the banks were allowed to run rampent with public money that

:26:22.:26:25.

didn't really exist creating bad debts, this is basic check

:26:25.:26:33.

economics. Both of you, the debts of Government are Government debts.

:26:33.:26:37.

What we're talking about is politicians, in seeking popularity,

:26:37.:26:41.

spending money that they didn't have. Part of that debt is bailing

:26:41.:26:45.

out the banks during the crisis? The debts of Government are

:26:45.:26:48.

Government debts. Having false accounting themselves from the

:26:48.:26:51.

Government. Let's just hear Richard's point. We have seen that

:26:51.:26:57.

right across Europe. The scale of the debt that the Governments

:26:57.:27:00.

occurred -- incurred to gain popularity did two things, a stock

:27:00.:27:03.

of debt the Governments have to repay which they are afraid they

:27:03.:27:07.

can't. Secondly, this is most important, it damaged the private

:27:07.:27:11.

sector at a time when we have global competition. Germany has no

:27:11.:27:16.

problem right now. Germany has full employment. You said they bought

:27:16.:27:19.

the popularity, that was what their debt was spent on. The debt was

:27:19.:27:23.

spent, surely, partly, on saving the financial sector from complete

:27:23.:27:33.
:27:33.:27:35.

collapse in the Liamman years? -- Lehman years? That is part of it,

:27:35.:27:39.

but what you had was an irresponsible politicians,

:27:39.:27:45.

responsible for the debt, Ed Milliband, talking about the need

:27:45.:27:51.

for responsible capitalism. The Governments have to face up to

:27:51.:27:55.

their irresponsibility. This is complete non-sen, you are talking

:27:55.:27:58.

in a local context about a financial crisis that is global. I

:27:58.:28:02.

can't believe a former banker is sitting here and telling me,

:28:02.:28:06.

peddling out this Tory line that this is the Labour Government's

:28:07.:28:10.

problem. I'm no fan of the Labour Government. Greece, Portugal,

:28:10.:28:15.

Ireland, Spain, France Italy. is nonsense. This is no way to talk

:28:15.:28:19.

about a financial crisis. The banks are kidding themselves if they

:28:19.:28:26.

think we are fooled. Silvio Berlusconi may be gone, but

:28:26.:28:31.

his buffoons gaffe-laden spirit would seem to live on in the form

:28:31.:28:35.

of FIFA head, Sepp Blatter, his latest salvo, that racism on the

:28:35.:28:39.

football pitch could be settled by a good-natureed handshake, has been

:28:39.:28:42.

met with ridicule and calls for his resignation, tonight even from

:28:42.:28:46.

David Cameron. His words have once again re-opened the debate on

:28:46.:28:51.

racism in football. As two English players phase accusations of racism

:28:51.:28:57.

towards fellow players. We ask tonight if the game, while being

:28:57.:29:01.

mull national and multirationale, does it still have a problem. How

:29:01.:29:04.

racist is football, in England the game isn't what it was. For that we

:29:04.:29:10.

should all be grateful. There is no doubt football has changed since

:29:10.:29:14.

the noxious 1970s and 1980. Football Association has agreed to

:29:14.:29:18.

investigate charges that racialist groups are using the terraces of

:29:18.:29:24.

some league clubs as a recruiting ground. Back then English crowds

:29:24.:29:29.

delighted in jeering black players, and the banter carried a vicious

:29:29.:29:34.

edge. Here we are in the dwindling days of 2011 and England's captain

:29:34.:29:40.

is captured on camera, now all over the Internet, oh aye what's that

:29:40.:29:50.
:29:50.:29:53.

then parently calling an opponenting an "f-ing black ". John

:29:54.:29:59.

Terry denies racism, he says the words he used were "I never called

:29:59.:30:04.

you an F-ing black and all the rest", he says the denying was

:30:04.:30:09.

hidden by a colleague walking in front of the lens.

:30:09.:30:13.

Mark Bright is a former player who says he's shocked by the

:30:13.:30:15.

allegations against John Terry, because football has been

:30:15.:30:20.

transformed in the last 20 years. But racism still rears up in

:30:20.:30:24.

certain contexts. It is still there, it is still there. It has been

:30:24.:30:30.

suppressed, I think, the social networking sites now are, the boys

:30:30.:30:34.

are on that, the black guys, they say things, it is racist abuse that

:30:34.:30:44.

comes back, not abuse, not banter, racist abuse, from Stan Collymore,

:30:44.:30:47.

Rio Ferdinand, and others, the police are investigating those

:30:47.:30:51.

things. That may say more about internet trolls than football.

:30:51.:30:55.

Racists have had to move on-line, because they have largely lost the

:30:55.:31:00.

forum of the English football crowd. What happened? The stereotype of

:31:00.:31:05.

the unintelligent and lazy black footballer was undermined bit

:31:05.:31:10.

performances on the pitch, by outstanding players like John

:31:10.:31:14.

Barnes, and others, I think also football took a very strong,

:31:14.:31:19.

hardline stand against racism. It was policed by the stew wards, the

:31:19.:31:24.

fans took ownership of it to a certain extent. Over time, this

:31:24.:31:27.

particular approach reaped dividends. Iconic figures within

:31:27.:31:31.

football stood up and said this is an absurd ideology, something we

:31:31.:31:37.

hate and disagree with. Slowly and surely the culture within football

:31:37.:31:41.

has changed. The situation today is far superior, unimagineably so to

:31:41.:31:46.

what it was 20 or 30 years ago. sophistication heralded by foreign

:31:46.:31:51.

imports, has just introduced a new problem. Luis Suarez, a brilliant

:31:51.:31:59.

arrival from Euro-guy, has been charged with the FA for racially

:31:59.:32:03.

abusing a Patrice Evra, he says he called him Nig rito, but says in

:32:03.:32:08.

Spanish it is a term of endearment. The FA, who struggle with the

:32:08.:32:14.

offside trap, must determine linguistic nuance and intent. Sepp

:32:14.:32:20.

Blatter is apparently blind to such subtlies, his comment that racism

:32:20.:32:27.

taunts should be finished with post match handshakes. He says he's

:32:27.:32:33.

misunderstood. Rio Ferdinand, brother of the one of the victims

:32:33.:32:43.
:32:43.:32:46.

John Barnes fought the good fight, winning major victories in the

:32:46.:32:50.

1980s, his talent and charm killed off racism in the Liverpool crowd,

:32:50.:32:57.

and shamed others. It was Barnes, who disDanefully backhealed a

:32:57.:33:02.

banana. I was playing for Liverpool against Everton, that is an iconic

:33:02.:33:08.

image, obviously from a negative point of view. I had experienced it

:33:08.:33:13.

years before, at West Ham, Millwall, because it wasn't a high-profile

:33:13.:33:18.

incident nothing was made of it. Any black player in the 1980s,

:33:18.:33:22.

would have been through that. Bright, knows about the bad old

:33:22.:33:29.

days. I had a letter, they don't want any black Bs here, and there

:33:29.:33:33.

is a bullet for you. I kept the letter, and I thought look at the

:33:33.:33:37.

attitude of the people it is out there. You didn't go to Everton?

:33:37.:33:42.

didn't go to Everton for because of the letter, but going there as the

:33:42.:33:46.

first black player, it wasn't successful for enough for me to go.

:33:46.:33:50.

For all the allegations and the mess of Mr Blatter, times have

:33:50.:33:56.

changed. Watch this from 1984. John Barnes was a star at Cup Finalists

:33:56.:34:03.

Watford. Because # No woman no cry. Michael Barrymore on a BBC preview,

:34:03.:34:10.

played his own tribute, blacked up. No trouble? # One love

:34:10.:34:13.

# Let's get together # And feel all right

:34:13.:34:19.

I'm feeling fine. Back then we supposedly all fell about

:34:19.:34:25.

laughinger or not? The tactics all done. We have tack ti, what I do if

:34:25.:34:32.

the Everton player comes towards me, hello, me Watford, then me go, we

:34:32.:34:38.

take the ball and we go like this. Peter Marshall with that report.

:34:38.:34:43.

This November, they tell us, is on track for being the warmest on

:34:43.:34:46.

record for some 350 years. Chance to become the stuff of cliche,

:34:46.:34:50.

every time the weather does something odd, we point to climate

:34:50.:34:55.

change as the explanation. How realistic is that. Tomorrow the

:34:55.:34:58.

UN's Panel on Climate Change is expected to claim it believes man

:34:58.:35:02.

made emissions are making storms, floods and droubgts more likely.

:35:02.:35:05.

Scientists believe they are getting better at working out the effects

:35:05.:35:10.

of climate change, and some can pinpoint which freak weather events

:35:10.:35:20.

are caused by global warming and which ones aren't.

:35:20.:35:25.

It is one of the hottest topics in climate science. Can humans be

:35:25.:35:29.

deemed to blame for extreme weather events. Such as last year's heat

:35:29.:35:34.

wave in Russia, or the floods that have hit the UK in recent decades.

:35:34.:35:38.

And whenever we hear news of people who have lost their lives, or their

:35:38.:35:42.

homes, after a disastrous weather event, a flood, hurricane or fires

:35:42.:35:47.

from heat wave, it is the question that sooner or later everyone asks,

:35:47.:35:56.

was it climate change or not? As London basks in a glorious mild

:35:56.:36:00.

autumn. November looks to be one of the warmest on record. It is not

:36:00.:36:05.

extreme weather event, but it is unusual. What-to-what extent can we

:36:05.:36:10.

pin this on human-induced climate change. We have had a unique record

:36:10.:36:16.

in the UK, that goes back to the 17th century. We can see there has

:36:16.:36:20.

been a general warming of a degree Celsius. We can relay that to the

:36:20.:36:25.

increasing odds of something like a mild autumn. When we do that we can

:36:25.:36:28.

make the inference that it looks likely that there is an increased

:36:29.:36:34.

chance of having a very mild autumn. Heatwaves like Europe's in 2003,

:36:34.:36:39.

and Russia last year, have increased since 1950. They are now

:36:39.:36:43.

expected to occur once every 20 years, rather than once a century.

:36:43.:36:46.

Scientists are increasingly confident these are made more

:36:46.:36:50.

likely by human-induced climate change. Extreme rainfall and floods,

:36:50.:36:57.

like those in the UK, in recent decades and drougts in the Tropics

:36:57.:37:03.

and sub tropics, have become more common since the 50s and 70s. On

:37:03.:37:07.

both, local land shape and conditions, make it less clear cut

:37:07.:37:12.

for scientists to link these to human activities. Storms are the

:37:12.:37:16.

most difficult to attribute directly to people. They involve

:37:16.:37:21.

complicated wind patterns. So, is it time to call in the lawyers?

:37:21.:37:26.

Some feel there is potential here for legal action against energy

:37:26.:37:29.

companies over damage caused by extreme weather. There is

:37:29.:37:33.

litigation in the states. It has had a checkered history. My own

:37:33.:37:37.

view is that in this country and Europe, it is not a realistic

:37:37.:37:43.

prospect in the short-term future, but if we get a failure to have

:37:43.:37:47.

international regulation, and if there is a continued large scale

:37:47.:37:51.

emission by groups of companies in the knowledge of the likely

:37:51.:37:56.

consequence, I think it is very possible in the medium or long-term.

:37:56.:38:00.

The scientific debate over the Russian fires, shows how views on

:38:00.:38:05.

the impact of human activities can differ. One paper, from a America,

:38:05.:38:10.

concluded that the record-breaking temperatures were due mainly to

:38:10.:38:13.

natural vairability, a stationary high pressure system. But in

:38:13.:38:17.

October, a second study, from Germany, concluded there is an 80%

:38:18.:38:21.

chance that the heatwave would not have occurred without human-induced

:38:22.:38:30.

climate change. Some scientists think it is the interplay between

:38:30.:38:38.

the two where the real answers are. The IPCC report is expected to say

:38:38.:38:42.

nor for the next decade or two there will be uncertainty. The

:38:42.:38:46.

effects we will be all having is small compared with natural

:38:46.:38:51.

variability. If we carry on as we are, as the century progresses, it

:38:51.:38:54.

is thought the human effects will be easier to spot. Because of our

:38:54.:38:58.

understanding in terms of how the general climate system is changing,

:38:58.:39:04.

we can start to develop reliable results about how our risk to

:39:04.:39:08.

extreme climate change has changed, even before the signal has emerged

:39:08.:39:14.

so clearly that it is utterly indisputable. Some scientists are

:39:14.:39:21.

unhappy the -- with the approach. Different models produce different

:39:21.:39:26.

results. It focuses on the meteorological hazarz, the heatwave

:39:26.:39:31.

or extreme rainfall, rather than on the damages. For example, lives

:39:31.:39:37.

lost, or costs in pounds. Such critics fear that if at tribbuegs

:39:37.:39:44.

like this goes ahead, funding -- at tribbuegs goes ahead, funding won't

:39:44.:39:48.

be at the core. This suggests we should increase the funding side of

:39:49.:39:52.

things, but societies across the world are being exposed to human

:39:52.:39:55.

and natural occuring extreme weather events. Because of that it

:39:55.:40:05.

would create a problem, It would only fund the human-induced part of

:40:05.:40:10.

extreme weather events. These scientists asked why bother trying

:40:10.:40:13.

to disenhangle human effects from natural varietyability, better,

:40:13.:40:18.

they say, to put -- vair ability, better, they say, to making sure

:40:18.:40:22.

that people everywhere can adapt to surviving the extreme coming their

:40:22.:40:32.
:40:32.:40:34.

way. Our guests are with us. Professor Allen, are you able to

:40:34.:40:39.

say with more clarity, whether extreme weather events are caused

:40:39.:40:42.

by climate change, would you allocate resources as a result of

:40:42.:40:45.

what you know? The crucial point to understand, when we talk about

:40:45.:40:48.

extreme weather caused by climate changement we are not seeing

:40:48.:40:51.

weather events that simply could not have happened without climate

:40:51.:40:55.

change. A good analogy is given by this dice, if I role the dice here,

:40:55.:41:02.

and I get a five, I role it again, and I get a, it is not working, it

:41:02.:41:10.

never works live. That is fantastic. This is a loaded dice, not working

:41:10.:41:16.

to its potential. It is coming up sixes. Let's leave that. We are

:41:16.:41:26.
:41:26.:41:28.

trying to, what we're doing is qantfying how much the weather --

:41:28.:41:34.

quantifying how much weather is occurring. You saw a sequence in

:41:34.:41:39.

the dice, it is the way it works with the weather. It is not that

:41:39.:41:44.

easy, but we are seeing that the weather dice being loaded towards

:41:44.:41:48.

certain events happening. Do you think your climate science is more

:41:48.:41:51.

accurate than the rolling of the dice you have just had, that is

:41:51.:41:53.

fundamental, isn't it? The point we're saying is we are starting to

:41:54.:41:58.

learn how to do this. It is not that we know exactly how to do it

:41:58.:42:02.

for every weather event in the world. What we can say is for

:42:02.:42:06.

certain weather veepbts, the obvious ones, we can say how the

:42:06.:42:10.

odds on the weather events have changed. That is what the new

:42:10.:42:15.

science of probableistic attribution is all about. That

:42:15.:42:23.

becomes crucial, doesn't it, if you are starting to see the science

:42:23.:42:26.

help to prove that certain extreme weather conditions are as a result

:42:26.:42:29.

of man made climate change, you have to act on that? That is where

:42:29.:42:39.
:42:39.:42:42.

the problem lies. I'm all for looking at the human system. When

:42:42.:42:47.

Myles and his friend say this could help the adaptation of resources

:42:47.:42:50.

around the world, that is when I get particularly worried. What he's

:42:50.:42:54.

doing is not understanding the nature of the adaptation process,

:42:54.:42:59.

by trying to suggest that we have what we might call tough luck

:42:59.:43:03.

weather, and human weather, and these are separate catagories, we

:43:03.:43:06.

need to adapt the human cause weather, but not the tough luck

:43:06.:43:10.

weather, that is failing to understand adaptation is actually

:43:10.:43:14.

the same whether human caused or not. You are saying the science

:43:14.:43:19.

isn't up to it, bluntly? I'm saying it is far too premature to be

:43:19.:43:24.

trailing this as a way of informing adaptation decisions around the

:43:24.:43:30.

world today. What is needed is investment in daiptation to improve

:43:30.:43:34.

the adaptive xapsity of those communities most at -- capacity of

:43:34.:43:39.

those communities at risk. You are not there yet? We're not there for

:43:39.:43:42.

every weather event. But, if you are living in an African village

:43:42.:43:47.

and being affected by storms, it is obviously making sense to invest in

:43:47.:43:53.

defences against those storms. But, nobody is suggesting that whether

:43:53.:44:01.

or not those storms are caused and the risk of storms is increased by

:44:01.:44:06.

the human causes, and you need to put up defences against them, but

:44:06.:44:09.

it is highly interesting who pays the bill. We have given resources

:44:09.:44:14.

to poor countries, not very many, to help them deal with the

:44:14.:44:17.

unfortunate consequences of bad weather. You are prepared to go to

:44:17.:44:20.

Governments on the strength of what you know at this point, and say

:44:20.:44:23.

they should be giving more money because of X or Y? We are not

:44:23.:44:27.

saying. That we are saying people deserve to know. If certain weather

:44:27.:44:31.

events are being made more likely by human influence on climate, it

:44:31.:44:34.

changes the nature of the question. We used to give money to help

:44:34.:44:39.

people affected by bad weather as a matter of son shepbs, however if it

:44:39.:44:43.

is our actions making the weather worse, it is not a matter of

:44:43.:44:46.

conscience, it is a matter of justice. That has to be right, if

:44:46.:44:49.

we know something, if we are using the science, there is a political

:44:49.:44:56.

responsibility that comes with that? He's promoting this as way of

:44:56.:44:59.

introducing evidence-based policy into adaptation. Actually we have

:44:59.:45:03.

very, very well assessed evidence that we know whether extremes cause

:45:04.:45:07.

the greatest damage, the greatest loss of life, the greatest dangers

:45:07.:45:11.

to those people who have least capacity to adapt to those weather

:45:11.:45:15.

risks. That is very clear and unequivocal evidence. That is what

:45:15.:45:24.

should be driving our adaptation policy, our adaptation funding, not

:45:24.:45:31.

a scientific methodology, that is still emergent, biased towards

:45:31.:45:34.

those weather extremes happening in the high latitudes rather than the

:45:34.:45:37.

Tropics where it is needed. Thank you very much for coming in.

:45:37.:45:40.

Before we go let me take you there the front pages of tomorrow's

:45:40.:45:44.

papers. The Independent has a global look at the economic prots

:45:44.:45:54.
:45:54.:46:13.

That's all from Newsnight and the team tonight, from all of us here,

:46:13.:46:23.
:46:23.:46:48.

Reasonable weekend coming up. Wet for some, sunny for others. Quite a

:46:48.:46:52.

lot of variety across the UK. On Friday's chart the best of the

:46:52.:46:55.

sunshine will be across England and Wales. Certainly through mid-

:46:55.:46:59.

afternoon, it should feel very pleasant through the heart of

:46:59.:47:02.

northern England, there will be a breeze, but not too strong.

:47:02.:47:06.

Temperatures up in the mid-teens, yet again, it should not feel like

:47:06.:47:09.

the middle of November. Fine for most of central and southern

:47:09.:47:12.

England, even across the south west. Starting off cloudy, damp, things

:47:12.:47:17.

will perk up through the afternoon. With some sunshine around. It will

:47:17.:47:21.

be blustery towards western coasts and hills. The same can be said for

:47:21.:47:27.

Wales. Dampness to start the day, but brings cheering up by the

:47:27.:47:30.

afternoon. Brightness for Belfast. Most of northern staying cloudy

:47:30.:47:34.

with the threat of rain across more western areas. For Scotland, parts

:47:34.:47:39.

of the southern Highlands, a lot of rain. Inbetween, calt bout and

:47:39.:47:43.

north-east of the Highlands it should be dryer and brighter. To

:47:43.:47:46.

the weekend a lot of dry weather, this is for more northern parts of

:47:46.:47:50.

UK, the threat is from rain in Belfast. Further south, largely dry,

:47:50.:47:55.

the cloud will come and go, in any sunshine it will feel pleasant.

:47:55.:48:00.

Temperatures nudging into the low to mid-teens. This is Saturday's

:48:00.:48:02.

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Emily Maitlis. Who are the Free Syrian Army, and do they stand a real chance of deposing President Assad?


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