05/12/2011 Newsnight

They took to the streets, stoned the police, looted shops, set fires

and visited chaos on previously sedate corners of the land. Who

were the rioters of last summer? Their behaviour was criminal, but

ground breaking intensive research, shows there may have been more to

it. I actually warranted to burn the cars, and see it burn as well

like, because the police, like, from what I have been through my

whole life, police have caused hell for me, innit like. Looting fed on

greed, but when they talk about their motive, many disclose deep

politics. I love this country, however I hate the people who run

it. What lessons can and should we learn to listening why they say

they did what they did. Germany and France believe they

have agreed a plan to save the euro, so why have they been warned about

their credit ratings tonight. This year's riots, were the biggest

shock to this country in a generation. But who were these

people willing to attack the police and burn down parts of their own

neighbourhoods? The Government told us they were

criminals, that gangs were key, rioting was insited on Facebook,

but now the London School of Economics, and the Guardian

Newspaper, have questioned 270 of the rioters and discovered another

picture. A third of the rioters interviewed were unemployed, and

only a third admitted to a previous only a third admitted to a previous

conviction. Paul Lewis, who covered the riots

for that newspaper made the report, and there is strong language in the

film. The England riots were the first

bout of civil unrest in a generation. Thousands of people

took to the streets in towns and cities. The fires, looting and

clashes with police, gave the impression of a country at war with

itself. Four days of disturbances re-

resulted in five people dead, and more than 4,000 arrested.

Across England, homes, shops and residential streets were left

unrecoginsable. But why did it happen? This was not political

protest, or a riot about protest, or about politics, this was

commoner garden thieving, robbing and looting, we don't need an

inquiry to tell us that. decision to not hold an inquiry

into the riots, left a host of un'd questions. Four months on, no-one

seems to -- unanswered questions. Four months on, no-one seems to

know why the riots, that started here in Tottenham, took place. Our

teams of researchers have interviewed 270 people who rioted

in London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester. Their testimony has

undergone rigorous academic analysis, giving an insiebgt into

why people took to the streets. You are about to hear their stories, in

their words. I was at a gig, I was just standing

outside having a cigarette, I was wondering why the crowd was

gathering. That's when I found out it was a protest about Mark Dugg an

being shot by police. Mark D Dugg an had been shot dead by police two

days earlier, rumours had led to thoughts that he had been

assassinated. Locals demonstrated at a police station. That was the

first I had heard that Mark Dugg an had been shot, and I thought, what,

another injustice by the police. Supporters of the family waited

outside the police station for a senior officer, who never arrived.

After three hours, patience ran out. Two police cars had been trashed, a

group of youths had pushed a police car into the road and put black bin

liners on it and set it alight. People were standing around

cheering watching the police car go up in flames. I was just standing

talking to other people, and shoved the other car on the road and put

black bin liners there, I leaned in and set it alight. Then a guy came

across the road and I stood back and watched the car go up. I stood

there excited, fu lock them, lock the scum bass standards, it was an

opportunity, I had never set alight to a police car before, and it was

just, lock it, join in. It was a police car, I know what they stand

for. I have been battered before, I now the injustices they caused.

Alex was not a hooded youth, a white man, in his 30s, from south

London. Within minutes, the image of the blazing car began

circulating on mobile phones and the internet. It wasn't just black

people, at the end of the day. It was the people from all backgrounds.

Young, old, even little kids were there. I was literally talking to

people I would never talk to in my life. People being nice and

friendly and chatting to me, handing me cans, handing me a

spliff, going, yeah, lock the police. No-one was talking about

rioting or looting. Nothing like that, we were all sitting there and

watching the police cars burn. It was like Bonfire Night on the high

street. But the party atmosphere didn't last for long. People from

surrounding boroughs poured into Tottenham, fires raged, police came

under heavy attack. Shops were ransacked. The police had lost

control. Police are calling for calm in Tottenham in North London.

When I was getting pictures on the news, they were just destroying

cars, they were within 10-20 feet from office, vandalising vehicles,

throwing bricks and the police weren't doing nothing. There was no

authority. It looked like we could have run of the streets. It started

going in a chain reaction, literally it started at one end,

and you know, the next valuable shop to go target, that was already

getting broken into. Everyone was helping each other,

holding up the shutters, carrying the short people inside. I saw

little kids there I was thinking, what? I thought, I want some money,

what? I thought, I want some money, I want some money.

I just went into a shop and I was like, it's already broken, this is

a jacket I don't have, and let me pick it up and take it. The people

we interviewed openly admitted they were opportunists, this was their

chance, in their words, to get free stuff. It felt like Christmas had

come early, just being able to take all the nice things that you want.

When you get a chance to put your hands on things like that, you feel

good. As the lawlessness spread across London, the impression

emerged of a city gripped by looting. The Government blamed

social media for the contagion. But the rioters we spoke to were not

using Facebook and Twitter. It was BlackBerry phones that were the

main tools for organising the riots. The private messages, known as

broadcasts and pings being shared along chains of friends, were

reaching tens of thousands of phones, not only in the UK. Me and

a couple of my friends were on holiday people were sending

broadcasts and a couple of my friends pinged me and told me what

was happening. The viral messages reaching Daniel, included images of

the burning police cars, and rallying calls for people to take

revenge for the death of Mark Duggan, they loss gave a list of

where to meet and when. As soon as I saw that, I was happy. For some

reason I just wanted to be there. I actually wanted to turn the cars

and see it burn as well. The police, from what I have been through my

whole life, like, police have caused hell for me, innit, like. We

all cut our holiday and came straight back to England.

I always thought to myself, when I was on holiday, there is a chance

like this never come again. I saw it as my opportunity, now was the

opportunity to get revenge. It wasn't even just the police, it was

the whole Government, everything they do, they make things harder

for us. They make it hard for us to get jobs, even when we do get

benefits, they cut it down, like some people are trying to change

their lives and go to university, and they are raising up the prices,

and then people can't afford university, so they go back to

selling drugs and stuff, and then you want to arrest them and say,

you don't understand why all of these young people are acting like

this. Really and truly, they are the reason why we are the way we

are, innit, and I knew if we get back to England, and we actually

damage, like, do a lot of damage to the point where forget all the

benefits they have cut off, they would have to pay twenty-times

worse than that. So we just our way of getting revenge.

We thought, OK, you want to financially hurt us, we will

financially hurt you by burning down buildings. I saw McDonalds get

set on fire, and then it was completely set alight. I have

petrol bombed it, eventhough it was set alight. I felt good.

Many of the people we spoke to travelled to more than one location,

they were searching for the disorder. Sometimes crossing the

city. When we first got there, we saw police, they had their shields

up, running. We thought, OK, they are on the defensive. So we just

started picking up bricks and bottles and threw it at them.

Locking bankers. It felt like Call Of Duty. It made

me feel odd as well, I knew it was somebody's mum or dad, I didn't

care, it was a chance to get revenge and I took it with both

hands. Our streets. It was a war. And for the first time we were in

control. We had the police scare, innit, there was no more us being

scared of the police. We actually had a choice of letting officers

off the hook, off seriously injuring them. I threw a brick at a

police woman, I saw her drop, I could have easily brick her again,

I didn't, because it was a woman. Scores of rioters said they had no

interest in looting. I wasn't there for the robbing. I was there for

revenge, innit. I will always remember the day that we had the

police and the Government scared. For once, they were living on, they

felt how we felt, they felt threatened by us. That was the best

three days of my life. As the riots spread across England, the

television pictures game the impression of mindless criminal --

gave the impression of mineless criminality. The findings of our

study found it to be more complex. Those involved said they felt like

they were taking part in anti- police riots.

When we came across a police car, it felt like we hit the jackpot. We

smashed it, we petrol bombed it, we thought we would violate, just like

they violate us. They arrest people for no reason,

they stop and check us for no reason. We thought, like I get, get

our own back. That's what we did. We enjoyed it, I felt no guilt,

nothing. I know it is only one less police car, I know when they come

back, just seeing their faces. I would have loved to have seen their

faces, to be honest with you. Obviously rioters might seek to

justify their actions after the event. But familiar themes kept

arising, unprompted by our researchers. Rioters repeatedly

expressed frustrations about their daily interactions with police. In

their words, they felt hasled, bullied, unable to walk down their

streets without being stopped and searched.

Me and my mum were walking home, my younger brother and a few of his

friends, who have been in trouble with the police for a while. But

they weren't doing anything, they literally just met up in front of

my mum's block of flats. The police get out and question my wror

brother and his friends, my mum said, why do you he need to talk to

him. They were so disrespectful to my mum, and my mum was polite,

she's not a rude woman, they pushed her aside, sort of thing. Then they

pushed me aside. And they took him into the van, and they beat him up

and broke his nose. Some people would say because he's a

troublemaker, that it is fair, but it is not.

I have seen my friends get beaten up in front of me by the police

officer. But what can you do, you can't turn around and say I will

write a statement or send off a letter. You never get a reply or

nothing ever gets done about it. Time and again the rioters we

interviewed complained the police did not treat them as equals, they

said officers were rude, impolite, disrespectful. It didn't matter if

they were in Liverpool, London or Birmingham, they felt it was their

chance to get their own back. my point of view, everybody just

wanted to fight with the police. There weren't no looters or anyone

robbing, there was just shops getting smashed up. Any excuse to

go wild, really. And then it is people who like being battered by

the police, and they want payback. Things likes that. Police may have

been the main target of the riots, but the complaints didn't end there.

The scrapping of the education maintenance allowance, the focus of

protests last winter, was repeatedly mentioned. It was part

of a bigger picture, people we interviewed felt they were getting

a raw deal from Government. They spoke of youth service closures,

rising unemployment, and cuts to benefits. Almost half were in

education. And some had taken part in the student fee protests. Did it

achieve anything, we had a protest the other day, did it achieve

anything? No, they will put the university fees up, they will make

it really hard for people to get anywhere in life. To get go from

what my sister paid, I think it was a grand in tuition fees, she's six

years older than me, I paid three grand, they want nine now. You have

tripled it once and again. And you expect everyone to just sit back

and take it on the chin. For them to cut away things like EMA,

learning grants loans and up the university prices means people

resort back to the same thing. love this country, however I hate

the people who run it. David Cameron has never experienced a day

on the street or a day jobless, or being on job seekers.

At the time the consensus was people were rioting without a cause.

But those we spoke to made this much clear, the riots did not

happen in a political vacuum. course there was a reason behind it,

why would it all kick off. It wouldn't kick off for no reason.

Four nights of sustained rioting destroyed parts of England's

suburbs. The response from police was swift and hard. More than 4,000

people were arrested. They would face harsher than usual sentences.

The Government's response has been what they have called a war on

gangs. At the heart of all the violence sits the issue of street

gangs. Our research has found no evidence to suggest gangs organised

the riots. If anything, the small proportion of gang members who were

present behaved in an atypical manner, across England, postcode

rivalries and gang hostilities dissolved for what was effectively

a four-day truce. You had different areas that had gang-related

problems working together, everyone put their problems away for that

week. They were able to get along, because we had one thing in common,

and that was to hurt the Government and the police. It wasn't really

gang-related. On those few nights of the riots, everybody united. I

think we all had the same feeling, we all had the common feeling and

we expressed it. For those whose lives were ruined by the riots,

that sense of unity will be hard to fathom. Rioters told us, they

regreted that parts of their own communities had been destroyed.

really didn't have to be there. I really didn't have to be there, I

have enough trainers as it is, and hats as it is. It didn't really

make a difference in my life. feel sorry for people who have

little businesses and that, I felt that was completely wrong, I

completely disagree with that. could have been setting fire to a

house that had babies in there, that is what made me stop. The fact

that I didn't want to hurt the innocents, but in way, that was

good, because as soon as I stopped bricking houses I went straight

into police cars, police officers. Even when rioters expressed regret,

they showed little remorse for their attacks on police. Setting

fire to the car, I don't feel guilty about it at all. I would do

it again. Hopefully there will be riots coming up soon. Why should I

respect them, if they don't respect me, for what reason, I would do it

again. I would probably do two police cars if I had the

opportunity, to be honest with you. Do you have any regrets? Yeah. But

that I didn't do more damage. I warrant -- wanted to burn down the

Time to talk to the minister in charge of the police, Nick Herbert.

Do you think it might have been wiser if the Prime Minister had

waited to establish the facts before saying it was all just

criminality and gangs? We know that three quarters of those who have

been brought before the courts did actually have previous convictions.

So there is absolutely no doubt that these were people who had been

in trouble before, and we know. Doesn't that say something about

those arrested, this is a broader sample? It is right to say it is

about criminality when you are talking about people on the streets,

looting, damaging the property and attacking the police. Nobody denies

it was criminality, and awful in many cases. Wasn't the most

striking thing there, the sense of alienation that came through, and

the particular focus upon getting back at the police who they felt

had been oppressing them? I actual low don't sop accept that the

police behave in that way. -- I actually don't accept that the

police behave in that way. There are particular cases discussed in

Tottenham being discussed in a different place. But elsewhere it

was much more about copycat action, opportunism. Looting, some of that

came about in your report. If we go back to the fact that three quarter

of the people who took part in this, or who have been brought before the

courts, actually had criminal records. The fact that they don't

like the police is hardly a surprise. Shock, horror, criminals

don't like the police. This is much broader research than simply those

people who appeared before the court. This is 270 people who

participated in the riots, some of whom, a very small proportion,

about 30 of whom may have been arrested and indeed convicted, the

remaining 240 of whom were not. Hold on, as you said, in the report,

the report itself said, a third hadn't been in trouble with the law.

It was interesting that your report put it that way. You could have

said that it meant that two-thirds had a previous conviction. It is by

their own testimony. In the same order as three quarters brought

before the court with a previous conviction, this research shows

these people were people who had been in trouble with the law before.

That is air own statements too. Do you think -- that is their own

statements. Do you think they are making excuses then? If you look at

the research and what people were offering as the reasons they did

things, including a dislike of the police and the Government. That was

very different to the reasons that the public gave for why they

thought it would happen. The public were saying. The public weren't

rioting? The public were pointing to other issues, including social

breakdown, family breakdown, the public were much more inclined to

say. It is the testimony of the rioters themselves? The rioters

were reluctant to accept responsibility, what they wanted to

do was blame others. With us now is the former Metropolitan Police

commissioner, Lord Ian Blair, David Lammy, the MP for Tottenham, Liz

Pilgrim, whose job was looted and vandalised during the riots, and

Professor Tim Newburn, and a youth leader from South-East London. Miss

Pilgrim what did you make of it, given your shop was wrecked by

these people, what did you make of what you heard there? I think that

the police didn't keep control that night. Sure. But the causes, what

they said about why they were rioting? I think that, in Ealing

itself, it wasn't a political proprotest, it was definitely

people that -- political protest, it was definitely people who took

the opportunity to ransack my street, set fire to the building,

make people lose their homes. Somebody died that night. It is no

excuse, really, is there, David Lammy, for what happened. You are

the MP for Tottenham, you know xapd there, there is no excuse for it?

would want to emphasise the 20,000 or so young people in Haringey who

stayed at home, and the 240,000 people in the London Borough

ofHaringey who were frightened in their homes. I do think that the

cohort of people that the Guardian have spoken to are important, and

unless we look into their eyes and hear their voices this will happen

again. I do think when they talk about stop and search, it is

important to recognise in the most diverse constituency in the country,

that there is an acceleration between, particularly for Muslim

youth and for black youth, in stop and search, at this point in time.

The Government have changed the rules on that. Also we have a

Metropolitan Police with only 868 black officers and 32,000 across

the Met. That is an issue. Do you recognise that, Nick Herbert?

goes to trust. I completely reject David's suggestion and lay this at

the door of Government changing rules. We scrap the reform that

said that the police had to record a stop and account, actually the

Met have chopbs, as is their right, not to do that in London. We have

reduced a couple of the specific bits of information that have to be

provided on the stop and search form that still has to be completed.

Isn't it a point about how the police are seen, do you accept

that? I accept that by the testimony of the people involved

there, they say they disliked the police, I make the point again,

these are people in trouble with the police, it is not surprising.

The testimony that you heard there from people who took part in the

riots, you didn't, but you know people who did. Does it ring true?

I think definitely, I think it is a huge problem when it comes to

relationships between young people and the police force. I think the

fact that a lot of the young people were talking in the film about how

they hated the police and they felt they were mistreated by the police.

I'm a young person who has been through that situation. I have been

stopped and searched at least six people, and I'm one of the young

people contributing to making society better in our communities.

That is a huge problem. With the stop and search it is a major

problem with the slips, that was one way to make sure if we thought

we were treated wrong bit police we could follow that up. The fact it

is scrapped, and the police are saying go to the police station to

get a slip about what is going on, everything is prolonged. There is a

lot of young people who have been faeked, and there is a lot of young

people -- affected and there is a lot of young people who are in

situations where the police has treated them wrong and they don't

know where to go to sort it out. Were you surprised by what you

found? I was a little, at the outset I thought that the subject

of policing would come up. I thought some of the issues of

whatever we want to call it, alienation, and so forth, would

have come up. I was surprised by the strength of it and the

frequency we heard it. We heard it in every city we did research and

across the demographic, men and women, young and old. Do you think

they were making excuses? Yes, in part I think they were. One cannot

deny that certainly some people that we spoke to were undoubtedly

trying to rationalise away some of their behaviour. Nonetheless, I

think the care with think the research was done, the care with

which the analysis was done, leads us to feel that the frequency and

very hemmence we heard was not just a rationalisation and something we

have to take seriously. I agree with Nick Herbert, it is an

excellent piece of research, as I would expect from the LSE, it has

the least surprising result, I don't want to sound like Blackadder,

the American Indians were found not to like General Custard. People do

not like police, because this is the group that they are most in

contact. I'm pleased with the fact that 73% of those rioters were

stopped and searched last year, the right people were stopped and

searched. Are you saying there is no problem? There is always room

for improvement. The fact is the police service in London has driven

crime down year after year since 1993. One of theishs you will end

up with is a -- issues you will end up with, is a group of people who

are entirely, with the difficulties they have over employment, over the

EMA, a lot of anger is there. can't stop just because you look

like, or where you are from. Nobody is suggesting here that people are

being stopped and searched, there is nothing racial in these riots,

this is about the group of people, who I think Tim will recognise, as

the phrase that criminologyists have used for a long time, called

"police property", these are the people, if I took you to a police

station or a prison, you would find three quarters of the people there

with previous conviction, you would find three quarters of the people

have educational needs. They are terribly badly educated, but...The

Point about the police is they deal with the symptoms, the political

part. You don't make anything of the political analysis? I make a

huge amount of political analysis. These are a group of people who are

the most deprived in the country. We need to help them, we need to

actually get right behind the educational processes. They are

being helped by the police, they are being beaten up by the police?

They are not being beaten up by the police. You are saying those people

are lying? You have to recognise a context in which over 300 people

have died in police custody, and not one police officer has felt the

force of the law. You have got to recognise the force with which

there are communities in London, who feel that is a grave injustice.

Of course, in the context of knife crime, it is understandable that

there is stop and search, but it needs to be intelligence-led, and

it is very difficult, if police cannot tell the difference between

a young man that is on the way to the gym, wearing a hoodie, and a

young man wearing a hoodie who is has a knife. Has the problem we

have with the Met in London. Nobody should be stopped on the grounds of

their ethnicity, that would be wrong. That is happening. We know

there is similar deprivation in Sheffield n Bradford, on Tyneside n

Glasgow, Edinburgh. They didn't riot there. These people who took

part in all of this, they are not the victims. The victims are people

like Liz, whose property was damaged. We know that, we watched

on our television screens, people walk out of shops with armfuls of

goods, people walking away with plasma TVs. People who lost their

moral compass. And we should take care not to lose our's, and think

actually there is any kind of excuse for this behaviour. There is

not. What do you think has gone wrong, your shop was looted?

Totally trashed, smashed, everything pulled out. What do you

sell in your shop? Baby clothes. That was looted. Some of which are

aspirational brands, some of which are hand made knitted booties.

did they do to it? They completely ransacked it, smashed everything up.

Stole everything they could carry. Walked out on to the reen and

dropped things. -- The green and dropped things. When you think

about what happened, what do you think has gone wrong in our

society? It is so complex, and it gets me really, really upset,

thinking that there isn't an answer, there's the fact that people feel

they have no future, that there is no consequences to their action,

that there really is no moral guideline for them any more. There

is no hope. And I think that we're all to blame. It's schools it's the

police, it's society in general. We all try to aspire to certain brands

and. You are playing the individual's concerns, this is an

individual judgment, and the collective norms of behaviour

changed during the riots, obviously, but each action is the consequence

of an individual decision, isn't it? Yes it is. Can I just say as

well, it is very poignant in that film that people, some of them

regreted their actions. And that it was that moment. Some didn't?

there were moments I think when people just got caught up with what

was happening. We can't just brush everybody with the same statement.

We have a model that is policing by consent, and it seems to me that

the absence of policing, right across London, led to a situation

in which that ethical and moral decision, that individuals have to

make, and account for themselves, was allowed to be at large. This is

the failure of the police on certain nights? In successive

nights. If they kept control on the Saturday night it wouldn't have

escalated. What do you think has gone wrong in the society? Nobody

is born a criminal. To just say that a lot of the people who

weren't part of the riots, they were reoffenders, you have to ask

why did they reoffend in the first place. A lot of those people are

not being helped when they are showing the symptoms of needing

help, wherever that may be, in the education system, if it when it

comes to the relationship between the police and the young people,

something needs to be done. What has changed within our society is

nobody really wants to take the rap for what is going on. I think when

it comes to young people, a lot of young people do ask for help, it

may not anybody a verbal conversation, at the same time a

lot of young people show symptoms that they need some type of

interaction. A lot of people tend to point the finger at young people

and say they should be responsible for their actions. We are not doing

this out of nowhere, we are learning it from people we saw on

tell ves, the bankers the politicians, the police officers.

There is no respect anywhere, is there. It is white collar crime,

but because they are wearing suits is it OK for them to get away it.

Just baulk young people weren't very organised and wearing hoodies

we should condemn them. If the justice system is putting some

people away, they should be treated with the same brush, no matter a

young people or politician. Young people took that on board t may not

be on a conscious level, but a sub conscious level, that if they can

do it, then we can get away with it. Not awful them were young.

Offending should always have consequence, a white collar

criminal or those in anti-social behaviour. We need a system that

sends those clear messages. One of the things that happened after this

disorder is the criminal justice system responded with unusual

certainty in dealing with people. It sent the right message, actually.

Some of them may have got it. is true, what is it going to

achieve by banging people up? you are saying, that exemplary

sentences should not have been handed down, those are matters for

the courts. I completely disagree. You have to send that signal to

people that the behaviour is not acceptable. I don't know if simply

trying to brush these people aside is the right way to do it. None of

it should stop us doing the all the things. Restorative justice is very

important. There is an important distinction, it is not to say, of

course when people break the law, in the most extreme ways there

should be punishments. It is wrong to shift from that to thinking the

criminal justice system is the solution to the problems we face.

Nobody is saying it is. And actually. That is what you were

saying just then, it was. I was saying that offending has

consequences and whether you are a white collar criminal or somebody

on the streets, I don't think, by the way, that people who were

looting at the time thought they were doing so because of expenses

scandals or City scandals. Young people are getting arrested and put

away, and by the time they are coming out it is 19, everything

they need to turn them into an adult and turn them into a help to

society they are not getting the chances. Reform of the penal system,

I agree it is not enough. Ian Blair, one question, Liz has already

raised this question, and so has David Lammy, and it is commonly

held, the police failed to act quickly enough. You weren't there,

none of us was taking commands then, or giving commands then. But now

the talk is, of issuing the police with water canon, and if necessary

plastic bullets, is that the answer? If that is the answer it is

the wrong question. Neither of those tactics would have been any

use in these riots. Plastic bullets and water canon are designed to

keep people away from a particular place, they use them in France and

all the rest of it. To try to chase rioters moving quickly around

London with that kind of equipment would be nonsense. What I want to

contribute, one further point, which is the concentration in the

Guardian today about the police, is an answer about the symptoms.Y, the

police could have done better and they should been there more quickly,

and better intelligences, and Liz's shop should not have been ruined.

But the answer lies much further back in who this group of people

are, they are the same group of people sitting in prison now, with

poor educational standards. have made that point. It is

terribly important. Surely other people might say the police are a

lightning conductor for a problem clearly identified by rioters and

observers as being them and us. police are engaged with this group

and will go on being engaged with this group forever, that is what

policing does. It does it every country in the world t deals with a

group of people who behave in a criminal form. If the Government

wants more robust policing, then I personallyam concerned -- I

personally I am concerned. latest news in the euro seems to

have convinced those who move the markets, for now at least. Nicolas

Sarkozy and Angela Merkel agreed today they need a new treaty n

which those who break the rules sufferam penalties, they want a new

bailout fund. Within hours the rating agency, Standard & Poor's

told the eurozone countries that they could lose their blue chip

credit rating as early as Friday night, if their plan doesn't work.

First, they failed in Brussels, then they failed in Cannes. For

months the EU has been like an endless advent calendar, where it

is always winter but never Christmas. Summit after summit as

failed. Today, in Paris, Europe's leaders may just have opened a

window on the future. The German Chancellor arrived in Paris, with a

plan, and once she got President Sarkozy behind closed doors, and

after some give and take, the French backed the plan.

TRANSLATION: France and Germany are the two big economies of Europe. To

take the risk of us spliting, is to take the risk of exploding Europe

and the euro. The deal they are working on shapes

up like this, there will be legally-binding commitments to

balance the books enshrined in national institutions. With --

constitutions. With automatic sanctions for those with deficits

above 3%. The long-term bailout fund for Europe, the ESM, will be

brought forward, launching in 2012, but it will no longer try to impose

losses on the banks. It will all be done through a new treaty, with or

without Britain. There is the clear beginnings of a long-term deal here.

But it is being done for a short- term reason, the leaders need to

convince the European Central Bank they are prepared to impose

discipline on southern Europe, not just once, but forever. If they can

do that, the Central Bank itself may do what it has never done, act

as the lender of last resort, and begin buying up the debts of those

sthriken countries. What the an -- striken countries. What the

analysts are looking for now is action in the short-term, and some

big money. I don't think it will succeed in being a circuit breaker,

on its own. You will have to see a number of other measures announced

on Friday, for this solution to really be found. I think you will

have to see another bailout groing programme announced for Spain and

Italy, include -- bailout programme announced for Spain and Italy. You

will have to see the ECB stepping in some way. I don't think any are

actual solutions but they will buy some time, if EU leaders can agree

on them. On the markets the impact was

immediate, the Italian Government's effective cost of borrowing slumped,

it had been well above 7% after Cannes. But it fell below 6% today.

Now comes the tiny problem of selling the whole deal, first to

the French. I don't think the French are in very much in favour

of handing over more sovereignty to the commission in Brussels. However,

a solution must be found. The crisis to be resolved very, very

quickly. It depends, again, how it is done. The French are very much

in favour, traditionally, to regulation, and if they see that

the markets can be tamed by political leadership, I think they

will be in favour of it. Once the French are squared, there is the

Brits, we know David Cameron's position. On the referendum, our

approach is very simple, we have legislated now, so it is impossible

for a British Government to pass power, from Britain to Brussels,

without asking the British people in a referendum first. That is the

legal position. We have made that vitally important change. As Prime

Minister, I'm not intending to pass any powers from Britain to Brussels,

I don't think the issue will arise, but the British people should know,

there is an absolute safeguard if power goes from Britain to Brussels,

they have to say so first, and quite right too. What if a 17-

nation treaty changes the balance of power, Merkel and Sarkozy made

it clear today they would not be asking for Mr Cameron's rubber

stamp. For the past six months the eurocrisis has been essentially a

political sis, solvable by a decision making, even if people

don't want to make decisions, now six months of indecision have

created a world economic downturn, and Britain is being dragged into

that. This is how one Italian minister felt as she voted through

a new round of austerity last night. And well she might, the ratings

agency S & P threatened to downgrade the whole eurozone,

reminding them that while they have been dithering, growth has been

disappearing. We will probably see debt restructuring in Italy and

Spain. The influences of that on confidence, the financial services

industries and lending is huge, and will cause growth to contract.

there nothing they can do to stop that? No, I don't think there is,

unless they draw a line under the crisis. Unless they can cut rates,

talk down the euro, provide stimulus in the eurozone, I don't

think they could find growth. they don't do a deal on Friday, the

European calendar becomes a bit fraught, Italy needs to sell two

big piles of bonds before the new year and up to now, nobody is

buying. One slip there, and the whole mood of confidence goes out

the window. Paul is here now with more on the

warning tonight from the credit creating agency, Standard & Poor's.

-- credit rating agency, Standard & Poor's. Germany and France agree to

save the euro and risk getting their credit rating downgraded.

Within hours, S & P have said that the there is a 50% of chance that

the whole of the eurozone gets downtkwraided, the six triple A

ratings would be lost. That would make the bailout fund, based on

that money, impossible to do. They are saying you have a mixture of

political indecision, there is a credit crunch in your banking

system, and in the case in France you have your sums wrong on the

buing budget deficit. Who are these people? All they exist to do is to

say if the bonds are tripping A or not, are they risk-free or not. It

brings the medicine methed out to Greece and Italy -- meted out to

Greece and Italy potentially to France, maybe someone wants to get

rid of the French Government. likely is today's deal to stick,

and where does it leave Britain and other non-euro mebts, the former

banker Joe Johnson, and the -- my other guest are here. Why is this

deal going to work better than the other deal, all the arrangements

exist? Yes they do, the only reason I can think that this should be

make a difference is Angela Merkel is -- should make a difference, is

Angela Merkel is talking about institutions and looking more in

charge, and might be able to get more out of her own parliament at

home. She always looked like she was running after the last

financial market panic. People in Germany got very upset with her.

When she started talking about grand bargains and treaty change

and fiscal and stability change, the way she is handling the crisis

has shot up. That might help in having to get the bailout funds

going, getting more money from the IMF. Of course, it is broader than

just Germany, the proposal is there be a new treaty? Yes, but that is a

very long-term thing. They are talking about having this treaty.

It is March, not that long-term? treat change in Europe has ever

gone that quickly. -- no treaty change in Europe has ever gone that

quickly. There is no reason to take it seriously then? The treaty

change is long-term any way, it will not change the eurozone. This

is part of a package that is politically necessary to convince

the ECB that it is safe to intervene in the markets. They

don't want to do the dirty job of telling the Italians to cut their

budget. They don't want to act as the lender of last resort but first

resort. They have played it back to the politicians. You're nodding

very loyally? I think she's right. The fiscal factor is one part of a

multistep solution. The S & P reaction illustrates the fact that

France and Germany don't have credibility when it comes to

enforcing fiscal rules. I was a Paris correspondent in 2005 they

were the original sinners, they broke the rules. So this fiscal

pact needs to be reinforced and in a number of ways. We need to have

collective borrowing mechanisms, we need to see the EFSF, financed by

the ECB, or we need to see euro bonds tpwheerbgsd proper commitment.

What about the question -- we need to see proper commitment. What

about the treaty change, a lot of people in your party would see it

as a great chance to repatriate powers to Britain from Brussels,

would that help? There are commitments to repatriateing

certain powers, the Working Time Directive, that is in the coalition

programme for Government F that opportunity arises, David Cameron

will pursue it. We already look completely marginal, don't we. For

something that is so intergral to our economic well being, the

British are more or less not using? That is not true, our voice is

powerful and heard and appreciated there. It is not fair to say

completely marginal. If a treatyo goes ahead, Angela Merkel says she

-- treaty goes ahead, Angela Merkel says she's easy about all 27 or the

17 and others who want to come in, and Britain is not part of it, they

are able to stitch up all sorts of things not in Britain's interests?

You are thinking of potential attacks on the City of London. I

think Britain needs more self- confidence and say let's win each

market on its merits. George Osborne did that to fan it is

particular effect in Brussels last weekend with the financial taxes

act, that was clearly against British interests and he

successfully batted it off. Do you share the confidence? It is the

right way to go. Britain should really spend its political fire

power where its interests lies, that is keeping the single market

whole and free. Making an intelligence argument on financial

services and regulation of financial services in Europe. Not

when, at a time when the Europeans are defending the euro, which is an

extension interest of those countries that are in --

existential interest of those that are in there. And not as the

British Prime Minister and go I'm talking about the European Working

Time Directive, that will not go well there. We can't get those

powers back? Perhaps at this time I wouldn't use that vexing moment in

Europe to talk about something that is narrowly in the interests of

Britain in Europe. What do you regard as this vexing moment?

Government has been supportive for further progress towards fiscal

union, the fiscal pact is something that George Osborne and David

Cameron have been pushing for solidly for the past three months.

It will be very much welcomed. Thank you very much. Some of

We have learned more about how seriously or otherwise the

Government takes austerity today. David Cameron is planning to double

the amount of money spent on the ceremonies for the Olympics next

year, total is now �81 million. The last time London hosted the

Olympics, the whole games cost less than three quarters of a million.

Competitors brought their own towels, and the highlight of the

opening ceremony was the release of several thousand pigeons. That is

several thousand pigeons. That is austerity, good night.

Winter has arrived, that's for sure. It is an icey night. Particularly

across more northern parts of the country. The Met Office has issued

a yellow warning to naebgt. Icey services around, with the showers

Some showers getting into parts of the Midlands, East Anglia and the

south-east too. Rather more cloud around, with the greater chance of

the odd shower. Plenty more dryer weather out there. Showers for

South-West England, temperatures seven or eight. It will be tempered

by the breeze. Not exactly warm out there. To the ee of the hills

across Wales, probably a -- to the east of the hills across Wales,

probably lengthier dryer spells. After an icey night a cold day.

Showers turning widespread as we end the day. Snow across Scotland,

fewer showers before tomorrow night, we will see snow spreading across

Scotland. Across northern areas sunshine as well. A big change in

the weather on Thursday, wet weather also spreading across

southern areas on Thursday, temperatures temporarily bouncing