Browse content similar to 12/12/2011. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
Line | From | To | |
---|---|---|---|
For a lot of economists this is the most riveting and fascinating | :01:05. | :01:11. | |
most riveting and fascinating period we have lived through. | :01:11. | :01:16. | |
It was the uen usual, House of Commons performance on these sorts | :01:16. | :01:19. | |
of occasions, lots of baying and jeering from the people we choose | :01:19. | :01:23. | |
to speak our thoughts. But there was one notable absentee, where, | :01:23. | :01:27. | |
everyone wanted to know, was Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, | :01:27. | :01:31. | |
who only yesterday described his friend Cameron's decision in ruls | :01:31. | :01:37. | |
as bad for Britain. Mr -- in Brussels as bad for Britain. Nick | :01:37. | :01:41. | |
Clegg said he thought it would be a distraction. Him not being there | :01:41. | :01:49. | |
made it even more of a distraction. Get up to much at the weekend? | :01:49. | :01:55. | |
Perhaps you just hung out with the family? Let's keep it moving, up | :01:55. | :02:00. | |
and down the door, instant blisters. Maybe you tackled a few jobs around | :02:00. | :02:05. | |
the house, or perhaps you radically hardened your view on the EU veto. | :02:05. | :02:10. | |
No? Oh, well, it was probably just the Lib Dem leader then, something, | :02:10. | :02:14. | |
certainly appears to have happened to him over the weekend. On Friday | :02:14. | :02:19. | |
he gave out a statement saying he was in full support of the | :02:19. | :02:22. | |
coalition's negotiating position in Brussels, that he thought that | :02:22. | :02:27. | |
David Cameron's demands were modest and reasonable. But then by | :02:27. | :02:31. | |
Saturday, his friends were supposedly briefing the newspapers | :02:31. | :02:38. | |
that he was privately furious, and then, on Sunday, he hit the sofa. | :02:38. | :02:41. | |
am bitterly disappoint by the outcome of last week's summit, | :02:42. | :02:49. | |
precisely because I think now there is a real danger of Britain being | :02:49. | :02:52. | |
isolated and marginalised within the European Union, that is good | :02:52. | :02:56. | |
for jobs in the glrb I don't think it is good for jobs or families up | :02:56. | :03:00. | |
and down the country or growth. As Nick Clegg left home, everyone | :03:00. | :03:06. | |
thought he had an hour or so awkwardly ahead of him sitting in | :03:06. | :03:09. | |
dutiful support of the Prime Minister. I went to Brussels with | :03:09. | :03:14. | |
one objective, to protect Britain's national interest. When Mr Cameron | :03:14. | :03:17. | |
started his Commons statement, explaining why he had used | :03:17. | :03:23. | |
Britain's veto, his deputy was not there. Nick Clegg, it seemed, had | :03:23. | :03:32. | |
exercised his own eat vow -- veto of sorts, the Labour benches kept | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
saying "Where'S Nick". We notice the absence of the Deputy Prime | :03:36. | :03:40. | |
Minister from his place. Miliband said the veto was all | :03:40. | :03:43. | |
about appeasing Conservative backbenchers. He didn't want to | :03:43. | :03:46. | |
deal because he couldn't deliver it through his party. He responded to | :03:46. | :03:51. | |
the biggest rebellion of his party in Europe in a generation, by | :03:51. | :03:56. | |
making the biggest mistake of Britain in Europe for a generation. | :03:56. | :04:00. | |
But a prosession of Conservative backbenchers saw things very | :04:00. | :04:03. | |
differently. Because he has stood up for democracy, he has stood up | :04:03. | :04:09. | |
for free trade, and he has stood up for free markets, this is to be | :04:09. | :04:12. | |
wonderfully commended. There seemed to be a sort of competition, who | :04:12. | :04:14. | |
could be most extravagant that their praise of the Prime Minister. | :04:14. | :04:19. | |
I would like to pass on the hugs, best wishes and kisses from people | :04:19. | :04:21. | |
in Macclesfield, who are very grateful for the stance the Prime | :04:22. | :04:25. | |
Minister took last week. But there were no hugs or kisses for Nick | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
Clegg from the Conservatives, oh no. The most cowardly and negative | :04:30. | :04:34. | |
attacks over the weekend did not come from the party opposite, who | :04:34. | :04:38. | |
are incapable of opposition, but unfortunately came from the Liberal | :04:38. | :04:42. | |
Democrats. Cowardice only to be surpassed by the absence of the | :04:42. | :04:46. | |
Deputy Prime Minister in the chamber today. | :04:46. | :04:50. | |
I'm afraid I don't agree with my honourable friend. I'm very | :04:50. | :04:53. | |
grateful for her support. We have to recognise, we are in a coalition, | :04:53. | :04:56. | |
and in a coalition parties cannot achieve all the things that they | :04:56. | :05:00. | |
want to achieve, and I think we have to praise each other in the | :05:01. | :05:07. | |
coalition, when we make sacrifices on behalf of the country. Look at | :05:07. | :05:11. | |
the glum faces on the Lib Dem benches, they were clearly not in | :05:11. | :05:16. | |
hugging mood. Some tried to cheer themselves up with tribal clothing, | :05:16. | :05:22. | |
others made measured digs a Lib Dem, it was noted, had led climate | :05:22. | :05:26. | |
change talks in South Africa, and a deal was done there. Would the | :05:26. | :05:30. | |
Prime Minister reflect that constructive and positive tkphrokcy | :05:30. | :05:33. | |
might be a better solution to British politics. | :05:33. | :05:36. | |
Some hadn't made it to the entrance, why wasn't Nick Clegg there, | :05:36. | :05:40. | |
afterwards he gave an interview. don't think people care too much | :05:40. | :05:42. | |
who sits where in the House of Commons. It would have been a | :05:42. | :05:45. | |
distraction if I was there. Because everybody knows that on this issue | :05:46. | :05:51. | |
the Prime Minister and I don't disagree, I have made my views | :05:51. | :05:56. | |
known. This is confusing, he and the Prime Minister don't disagree?, | :05:56. | :06:02. | |
except we know they do, don't they? Mr Clegg had another go? The Prime | :06:02. | :06:05. | |
Minister and I clearly do not agree on the outcome of the summit last | :06:05. | :06:10. | |
year, I made it very clear that I think -- last week, I made it very | :06:10. | :06:15. | |
clear that I think isolation in Europe, one against 26 is | :06:15. | :06:19. | |
potentially bad thing for jobs, for growth, and the livelihoods of | :06:19. | :06:23. | |
millions in this country. What happens now. Both party leaders are | :06:23. | :06:27. | |
clearly very committed to keeping the coalition together, but, as we | :06:27. | :06:31. | |
saw in the Commons today, their backbenchers are more willing than | :06:31. | :06:35. | |
usual to have a pop at each other. With every row a few more stitches | :06:36. | :06:40. | |
in the fabric that holds the coalition together are ripped apart. | :06:40. | :06:44. | |
At some point, not necessary immediately, it might be beyond the | :06:44. | :06:47. | |
power of the leadership, to hold their respective parties in the | :06:47. | :06:53. | |
coalition. With us now is the former Liberal | :06:53. | :06:58. | |
Democrat leader and Godfather of the party faithful, secular saint, | :06:58. | :07:04. | |
I don't know, Paddy Ashdown, Lord Ashley! Did you ever think you | :07:04. | :07:08. | |
would belong to party which made possible something that was bad for | :07:08. | :07:11. | |
jobs, bad for growth and bad for the livelihoods of millions of | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
people in this country? To be honest, I never thought I would | :07:15. | :07:18. | |
belong to a liberal party that would be in Government, and had to | :07:18. | :07:22. | |
take the tough decisions. Let me address this directly, one, what is | :07:22. | :07:25. | |
the difference between ourselves and the Tories over this? By the | :07:25. | :07:30. | |
way, it was a joint negotiating position. Nick Clegg, not only made | :07:30. | :07:35. | |
sure that the demands that were made were reasonable ones not | :07:35. | :07:38. | |
unreasonable ones, but spent maybe 30 phone calls preparing the way | :07:38. | :07:41. | |
for success. Was he dismayed. couldn't be bothered to go, | :07:41. | :07:45. | |
prepared to be tucked up in bed in Sheffield? That is a position, it | :07:45. | :07:49. | |
is the Prime Minister to be there, and he wanted to be where he felt | :07:49. | :07:52. | |
it was important. If it was so potentially damaging why didn't he | :07:53. | :07:57. | |
go? We can talk about who was in which bed, where, I'm not getting | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
into that. The more important thing is this the joint position put | :08:00. | :08:04. | |
forward by both parties, in which Nick Clegg had a tremendous part in | :08:04. | :08:08. | |
making sure it was acceptable. Are we pleased with the outcome? No, we | :08:08. | :08:12. | |
are dismayed with it. That is the difference, Mr Cameron is pleased | :08:12. | :08:17. | |
with the outcome, we are not. it was a joint decision? No, the | :08:17. | :08:20. | |
negotiating position was a joint position put forward by both | :08:20. | :08:23. | |
parties in the coalition. But conduct of the negotiations was a | :08:23. | :08:27. | |
matter for the Prime Minister. He was pleased by the outcome, we are | :08:27. | :08:31. | |
not. It is as simple as that. had no idea in your party that this | :08:31. | :08:36. | |
was how it would end up? I don't think anybody had any idea how it | :08:36. | :08:40. | |
would end up. The origins of this go way back to the fact that you | :08:40. | :08:44. | |
have now got in Britain a Conservative Party that for so many | :08:44. | :08:50. | |
years have been so euro-sceptic, thats hadth has generated real | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
anti-British fervour on the continent. What is the point of | :08:53. | :08:56. | |
having you in the Government if that sort of happens, this is | :08:56. | :09:00. | |
crucial to the future of the nation, according to your leaders, and yet | :09:00. | :09:03. | |
he doesn't have any idea of how things will turn out. He didn't | :09:03. | :09:07. | |
turn up in the House of Commons today? He was right not to turn up | :09:07. | :09:10. | |
in the House of Commons today. Let's get down to the substance | :09:10. | :09:12. | |
before us. That is this, the difference between ourselves and | :09:12. | :09:16. | |
the stories is this ended up in a position that ended with success, | :09:16. | :09:20. | |
we think it is a failure. The question isn't how did you get here, | :09:20. | :09:23. | |
the question is what happens next. This is where I think we have now a | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
major role to play, again in the Liberal Democrats, which is to make | :09:27. | :09:31. | |
sure that Britain's isolation, Jeremy...You Thought you had major | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
role to play in this negotiation, you didn't, you were irrelevant? | :09:35. | :09:39. | |
That isn't true, as you well know, I have just covered with you...What | :09:39. | :09:43. | |
Relevance did you have in this judgment then? We put together a | :09:43. | :09:47. | |
joint negotiating deal. Which apparently was ignored? It was then | :09:47. | :09:51. | |
in Mr Cameron's hands to deliver. He didn't. We might go into why not | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
on a different occasion. Do we think the outcome is good or bad. | :09:54. | :09:58. | |
We think it is bad, he thinks it is good. The job at present, it seems | :09:58. | :10:02. | |
to me, is to get Britain out of isolation and back into the game. | :10:02. | :10:07. | |
That is a crucial role that we now have to play. Can we discuss how | :10:07. | :10:12. | |
you might do that. Is there any point in discussing any of this | :10:12. | :10:17. | |
with you, with the greatest respect, you are a distinguished figure in | :10:17. | :10:19. | |
your party, but your party is not he will vant in things that happen? | :10:20. | :10:25. | |
That is not true, can we cuss what happens next. It is -- Can we | :10:25. | :10:29. | |
discuss what happens next. You say you had nothing to d with the | :10:29. | :10:32. | |
outcome? We put together a joint negotiating position with the Prime | :10:32. | :10:38. | |
Minister. That's what he took to the negotiations. It is deeply | :10:38. | :10:40. | |
regretable that a negotiating position, which I think would have | :10:40. | :10:45. | |
been won by any other British Prime Minister, save for Mr Cameron of | :10:45. | :10:51. | |
recent times, was not won. That displays and disappoints us. | :10:51. | :10:55. | |
keep this uniquely inept man in office? I don't believe you can | :10:55. | :10:59. | |
describe the Prime Minister as inept. You say his position would | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
have been won by any other Prime Minister? On this occasion. But the | :11:02. | :11:07. | |
coalition is about taking this country through an economic crisis. | :11:07. | :11:13. | |
Do the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives agree about Europe? | :11:13. | :11:17. | |
Manifestly we do not. The centre of the coalition is not about Europe, | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
it is how to carry the country through an economic crisis, that is | :11:20. | :11:24. | |
work still to be done. What is it we can now do to bring this country | :11:24. | :11:27. | |
out of the desperate isolation that a failure of negotiations in | :11:27. | :11:31. | |
Brussels has left it. The answer is there are some things that we can | :11:31. | :11:35. | |
do, and we can insist are done. Those, I think, will help to try to | :11:35. | :11:38. | |
reconnect Britain with what's happening in Europe, instead of | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
leaving it isolated. How can you insist they are done. You could | :11:42. | :11:46. | |
have insisted on this occasion that there was no walking away, but you | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
didn't? It was Mr Cameron who walked away. So you are not in a | :11:49. | :11:52. | |
position to insist upon anything, are you? I think it is perfectly | :11:52. | :11:55. | |
possible for the Liberal Democrats to say, for instance, that Britain | :11:55. | :12:00. | |
now needs to take a position where we do not act as a break from the | :12:00. | :12:05. | |
26, to use European institutions to put forward what now happens, | :12:05. | :12:09. | |
because it is in our interests to see this succeeds. I think a | :12:09. | :12:12. | |
negotiating position between the Liberal Democrats and the | :12:12. | :12:16. | |
Conservatives, which insists that we should not be a break to the 26 | :12:16. | :12:19. | |
finding a solution to this, is exactly what can now be done. The | :12:19. | :12:22. | |
Prime Minister hinted today that was a line that could be taken. I | :12:22. | :12:25. | |
think we have to drive that forward. What matters now, and this is the | :12:25. | :12:29. | |
real thing that matters, Jeremy, is not what happened, and how do we | :12:29. | :12:33. | |
get here, but how do we reconnect Britain instead of leaving it | :12:33. | :12:36. | |
isolated. I suggest to you, how we got into this powerless position? | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
We have just been through this, can we concentrate on what happens next. | :12:40. | :12:44. | |
Would you ever say we will not collaberate in this Government any | :12:44. | :12:53. | |
longer if you continue to act in ways we think are not good for this | :12:53. | :12:58. | |
Government? If the Government was foolish enough to let the euro- | :12:58. | :13:02. | |
sceptics run riot with European policy in future, then I think you | :13:02. | :13:08. | |
would be in a very serious position as a Government in Britain. What we | :13:08. | :13:13. | |
have to now discuss is how can we step back from our position of | :13:13. | :13:16. | |
isolation. Would your party play a part in that Government? Don't take | :13:16. | :13:20. | |
me down a track which is too far away for me to speculate about. You | :13:20. | :13:24. | |
are never in something for all circumstances, but here is the | :13:24. | :13:28. | |
centre of the coalition. It is how you take this country through the | :13:28. | :13:31. | |
economic crisis. The fact that the Liberal Democrats and the | :13:31. | :13:33. | |
Conservatives don't agree about Europe can hardly be a surprise to | :13:33. | :13:37. | |
you or anybody else. We would have wished to see these negotiations | :13:37. | :13:42. | |
succeed, we think it is a disappointment, it is a dismaying | :13:42. | :13:46. | |
act, to use my leader's language, that it did not succeed. Now there | :13:46. | :13:52. | |
are reasons for that, I give you one, I think we have two leaders to | :13:52. | :13:55. | |
international leaders, two leaders of Britain and France, who are | :13:55. | :13:58. | |
probably not up to playing the parts they think they are playing. | :13:58. | :14:01. | |
You have Mr Sarkozy, the French President, who believes he's | :14:01. | :14:06. | |
General de Gaulle, and Mr Cameron who believes that he is Mrs | :14:06. | :14:10. | |
Thatcher. That is one of the ingredients that has brought us to | :14:10. | :14:13. | |
the situation. And Nick Clegg is Gladstone is he? What is clear to | :14:13. | :14:18. | |
me now is what happens next. How we get Britain back into the game and | :14:18. | :14:25. | |
the negotiations is what to do and the Liberal Democrats play an | :14:25. | :14:29. | |
important part in that. It is a liberal assumption that the rest of | :14:30. | :14:33. | |
the European Union is not nattering away about what David Cameron did | :14:33. | :14:37. | |
on Friday morning, there is the slight matter of whether they have | :14:37. | :14:44. | |
done enough for the euro to survive. Britain didn't wield a veto, not in | :14:44. | :14:47. | |
a meaningful sense, because those that wanted one got one. | :14:47. | :14:53. | |
What happened in the heady hours of the night? | :14:53. | :14:58. | |
The desire to remain venerable City interests was at the heart of what | :14:58. | :15:03. | |
happened last week. David Cameron sought to hold Britain's edge in a | :15:03. | :15:07. | |
globalised, regulated world. By ending up in a club of one, he left | :15:07. | :15:10. | |
EU officials implying he hadn't made the slightest difference. | :15:10. | :15:16. | |
this move was intended to prevent bankers and financial corporations | :15:16. | :15:23. | |
or the City from being regulated, that's not going to happen. We must | :15:23. | :15:28. | |
all draw the lessons from the on going crisis and help to solve it, | :15:28. | :15:32. | |
and this goes for the financial sector as well. | :15:32. | :15:36. | |
When the Prime Minister went to Brussels he was taking a big | :15:36. | :15:39. | |
diplomatic gamble. The British draft for safeguarding the City | :15:39. | :15:44. | |
hadn't been circulated in advance in the usual way. Very few Foreign | :15:44. | :15:48. | |
Office people, we understand, had seen it either. Instead, it was | :15:48. | :15:52. | |
kept on a tight Downing Street distribution, and there was little | :15:52. | :15:55. | |
time to canvas for other countries' support in Brussels. | :15:55. | :16:00. | |
In the end, what all of this has done is expose the limits of | :16:00. | :16:06. | |
Britain's influence, in a club of 27, and a system of qualified | :16:06. | :16:11. | |
majority voting. It is not easy to see how that can be dealt with, | :16:11. | :16:16. | |
except by challenging that system of majority voting, as Britain | :16:16. | :16:20. | |
tried to do on Friday in the early hours, and failed. In the absence | :16:20. | :16:24. | |
of some kind of solution, these problems will continue. | :16:24. | :16:27. | |
Britain's last-minute proposal, of which we have obtained a copy, | :16:27. | :16:32. | |
aimed to protect US and other foreign banks in the city from new | :16:32. | :16:38. | |
EU rules. It tried to stop those who want euro transactions to be | :16:38. | :16:42. | |
done only in eurozone countries. But in the key provisions Mr | :16:42. | :16:48. | |
Cameron asked for unanimity, rather than EU majority voting on transfer | :16:48. | :16:52. | |
of powers from national level to EU agencies. The same went for any | :16:52. | :16:57. | |
change to the supervision or regulation of financial houses, or | :16:57. | :17:00. | |
to the location of the European banking authority, currently in | :17:00. | :17:08. | |
London. This looked like trying to turn the clock back on majority | :17:08. | :17:12. | |
voting. The Government kept its cards close to its chest for | :17:12. | :17:15. | |
reasons that baffle the Foreign Office, the European proposals were | :17:15. | :17:19. | |
not given to our partners until the day of the summit. And because of | :17:19. | :17:25. | |
the way the summit was organised, the British protocol was discussed | :17:25. | :17:28. | |
at 2.00am, when everybody was fed up and tired and wanted sleep. | :17:28. | :17:33. | |
Perhaps if they had emerged at 2.30pm, then everyone could have | :17:33. | :17:37. | |
got down to negotiation on them. At the time they emerged people said | :17:37. | :17:41. | |
take them or leave them, Sarkozy said we won't have them, and there | :17:41. | :17:46. | |
was no discussion about which bits of the British proposal were good | :17:46. | :17:51. | |
and not so good. If the British proposal unravelled because of bad | :17:51. | :17:54. | |
tactic, Friday's reverse may be recoverable, that is what many | :17:54. | :18:01. | |
friendly Governments are hoping. Think that this whole situation has | :18:01. | :18:11. | |
:18:11. | :18:17. | ||
been overdrama advertised. -- dramaised. | :18:17. | :18:22. | |
There will be an opportunity to meet some, if not all of the UK's | :18:22. | :18:26. | |
requests at some stage down the line. I think it will be to the | :18:26. | :18:29. | |
benefit of the whole of the European Union for that to happen. | :18:29. | :18:35. | |
And for the UK to be able to join at a later stage. Today the Prime | :18:35. | :18:38. | |
Minister suggested again that European institutions, such as its | :18:38. | :18:42. | |
Civil Service, couldn't be used without British agreement. There is | :18:42. | :18:48. | |
some legal sense in that, but it would ratchet the row to new | :18:48. | :18:56. | |
levels? Politically if Mr Cameron really tried to flaunt the Franco- | :18:56. | :19:00. | |
German convention for the European institutions and tried to stop it | :19:00. | :19:04. | |
through one court ace case after another, he would create ill will | :19:04. | :19:08. | |
towards the UK. There is already some of that. The real lesson of | :19:08. | :19:13. | |
the last few days is Britain has no friends and allies in Europe. In | :19:13. | :19:16. | |
the history of the European Union, since Britain joined in 197, I | :19:16. | :19:22. | |
can't recall a time when not a single other Government or country | :19:22. | :19:25. | |
was prepared to standby Britain and help us, we have lost all our | :19:25. | :19:29. | |
allies at the moment. Mr Cameron's attempt to protect the City may | :19:29. | :19:33. | |
have exposed more than just tactical shortcomings, if he is to | :19:33. | :19:37. | |
return to the attack on majority voting, opponents in Europe are | :19:37. | :19:44. | |
bound to question his commitment to the single market, one of the basic | :19:44. | :19:54. | |
:19:54. | :19:55. | ||
tenets of Europe. We're joined by our guests now. | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
Nick Bowles, what do you make of the way the British Government | :19:58. | :20:01. | |
handle these negotiations? I can only think of two compassions how | :20:01. | :20:04. | |
they ended up where they did -- explanations of how they ended up | :20:04. | :20:08. | |
where they did. They didn't take competent steps to get allies on | :20:08. | :20:11. | |
side, they didn't announce it in time and set out what they were | :20:11. | :20:14. | |
trying to do. The other explanation is they were afraid of their own | :20:14. | :20:17. | |
backbenchers, and couldn't get a treaty through parliament, and | :20:17. | :20:21. | |
deliberately went for a failure. Nick Bowles what do you think went | :20:21. | :20:27. | |
wrong? The problem went wrong, it isn't true to say that the | :20:27. | :20:30. | |
proposals were not true to say. The entire piece of paper wasn't | :20:30. | :20:34. | |
released, but the Prime Minister, a few days before in the House of | :20:34. | :20:38. | |
Commons had said what he would be asking forks and said if he didn't | :20:38. | :20:42. | |
get the safeguards he needed, particularly in financial | :20:42. | :20:46. | |
regulation, he wouldn't be able to tack the treaty. It was clear what | :20:46. | :20:51. | |
he would do. They are all wrong? President Sarkozy is running for | :20:51. | :20:54. | |
election, and 15% behind in the poles, and he had a strong interest | :20:54. | :20:59. | |
in showing the French people. are playing the blame game? I'm not | :20:59. | :21:03. | |
saying there weren't contributory factors, everyone accepts it was | :21:03. | :21:07. | |
Sarkozy who was the driving force behind the rejection of every part | :21:07. | :21:12. | |
of the British proposals. You have to ask his benefit in all of this. | :21:12. | :21:15. | |
I think probably he's facing re- election soon, it is a tough fight, | :21:15. | :21:20. | |
and standing up to England has never done the French President any | :21:20. | :21:25. | |
harm. Sophie Intveld, how does it seem in Strasbourg? I think | :21:25. | :21:28. | |
everybody thinks this is very unfortunate. People were very | :21:28. | :21:34. | |
surprised that things turned out the way they did. It is very | :21:34. | :21:38. | |
unusual as a situation. A veto is considered to be a deterrent, it is | :21:38. | :21:42. | |
a nuclear weapon. You are not actually supposed to use it. Unlike | :21:42. | :21:47. | |
the previous speaker I don't think you can blame exclusively Mr | :21:47. | :21:51. | |
Sarkozy. He might well want to be the most powerful man in Europe, | :21:51. | :21:56. | |
but there are 25 other countries as well. I know that some other | :21:56. | :21:59. | |
countries and prime ministers of other countries were equally | :21:59. | :22:05. | |
shocked. I think Paddy Ashdown was right when he said what we need to | :22:05. | :22:11. | |
focus on now is how we reconnect. Once the dust is settled, once all | :22:11. | :22:17. | |
the emotions are settled, then we need to restore calm. Let's engage | :22:17. | :22:20. | |
with that, how long lasting is the damage going to be, Jonathan Powell, | :22:20. | :22:26. | |
you are a veteran of numerous EU investigations? I think people are | :22:26. | :22:32. | |
underestimating how serious this is, there is no way back, apart from a | :22:32. | :22:36. | |
humiliating climb-down from David Cameron. President Sarkozy said | :22:36. | :22:40. | |
there are two Europes, there is no way back, he wanted inter- | :22:40. | :22:43. | |
governmentalism and we have played into that. There is a very clear | :22:43. | :22:48. | |
subtext, there has been a 40-year dream, shared by Jonathan, Paddy | :22:48. | :22:52. | |
Ashdown, Ed Milliband and Charles Grant on your programme, that 40- | :22:52. | :22:55. | |
year dream is Britain would at some point, catch up with the rest of | :22:55. | :22:58. | |
the EU and join that country, called Europe, that they are in the | :22:58. | :23:02. | |
business of creating. That is why we have always wanted us to retain | :23:02. | :23:06. | |
part of the EU treaties, even when we have an opt-out, as we do on | :23:06. | :23:10. | |
monetary union. The reason why there have been the howls of pain | :23:10. | :23:15. | |
from people like Jonathan over the last few days, is that dream has | :23:15. | :23:19. | |
definitively crumbled. Britain is never going to join the monetary | :23:19. | :23:23. | |
union, we are never going to join the fiscal union, we want to remain | :23:23. | :23:29. | |
part of the single market, but but we don't want to call the country | :23:29. | :23:32. | |
called Europe. Jonathan is right, there are two journies, we will | :23:32. | :23:36. | |
remain an enthusiastic part of the single market, and an enthusiastic | :23:36. | :23:41. | |
member of the EU, we will never join the eurozone, it has been his | :23:41. | :23:46. | |
ambition and Paddy's, and I hugely respect them for it to achieve that, | :23:46. | :23:49. | |
that has failed and that is why they are in such pain. You don't | :23:49. | :23:53. | |
speak for the whole of European politicians, but from where you see | :23:53. | :23:58. | |
it, in Europe, do you think you are deprived of anything by the British | :23:58. | :24:03. | |
absence? Yes, I think the European Union without the UK is not the | :24:04. | :24:08. | |
same European Union. I think, you know, we are very obsessed with | :24:08. | :24:14. | |
ourselves at the moment. It is worth having a look at the world | :24:14. | :24:17. | |
out there and ask yourself what position Europe should have in a | :24:18. | :24:24. | |
global economy. I think the British are very well placed to understand | :24:24. | :24:27. | |
the importance of global economy. Is there a way back for David | :24:27. | :24:31. | |
Cameron without eating his words? Yes, there always is. The European | :24:31. | :24:35. | |
Union has a long tradition of clashes and then they sit around | :24:35. | :24:42. | |
the table again and they will find a compromise, and compromises by | :24:42. | :24:46. | |
definition are not pretty or glamorous, thu work though. We | :24:46. | :24:52. | |
should give it a -- but they work. We should give it a bit of time, | :24:52. | :24:55. | |
let everyone vent their emotion and come back to the negotiating table | :24:55. | :24:59. | |
and talk like grown-ups. It is not that serious, the European Union is | :24:59. | :25:07. | |
well in the habit of making people to redo referendums if they produce | :25:07. | :25:13. | |
a decision they don't like. It is never the end? I fear it is, the | :25:13. | :25:19. | |
single market measures are in vast majority QMV, quality majority vote. | :25:19. | :25:23. | |
They will be taken at 26. There will be a group of 26 countries who | :25:23. | :25:26. | |
meet, make decisions, and then couldn't front Britain with them. | :25:26. | :25:31. | |
We will have no say in the -- confront Britain with them. We will | :25:31. | :25:36. | |
have no say in our lives now. We will be excluded from all the key | :25:36. | :25:39. | |
decision making in Europe. People are mission the point on that. | :25:39. | :25:42. | |
don't think that is right, we have had the eurozone for a while, and | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
the eurozone countries, I will admit, they have been meeting | :25:46. | :25:50. | |
separately in these eurozone plus meetings without us. Frankly, we | :25:50. | :25:53. | |
can't stop them picking up the phone to each other. There are | :25:53. | :25:58. | |
always going to be, in the 26 countries, who, on certain issues, | :25:58. | :26:02. | |
will agree with our position, in about the single market. About how | :26:02. | :26:06. | |
it will develop. You have heard from the Polish Finance Minister | :26:06. | :26:10. | |
he's clearly very keen. You have heard from the Dutch MEP with us, | :26:10. | :26:13. | |
she's very keen for Britain to still have a role. We will still | :26:13. | :26:16. | |
have a role, we will have to be part of a negotiation. Just because | :26:16. | :26:21. | |
you have a caucus, doesn't mean the caucus always comes to a unified | :26:21. | :26:25. | |
position. You think this was a great success, was it? No, as David | :26:25. | :26:30. | |
Cameron said today, we wanted to do a deal which had these safeguards | :26:30. | :26:34. | |
that would have enabled us to sign up to the treaty. It didn't need to | :26:34. | :26:38. | |
become clear that if we were going to agree to that we needed to have | :26:38. | :26:43. | |
protections that are not currently in the EU acts? I don't think it is | :26:43. | :26:47. | |
a betrayal of 50 years, it is a betrayal of 200 years, Britain has | :26:47. | :26:53. | |
spent huge amounts of blood and treasure to be involved in blin, | :26:54. | :26:58. | |
right back to the battle of Waterloo. You read the European | :26:58. | :27:03. | |
papers it is more sorrow and anger, Britain has turned away and they | :27:03. | :27:07. | |
are mystified by it. It is a hysterical overreaction, Britain is | :27:07. | :27:11. | |
the sixth or seventh largest economy in the world. We have the | :27:11. | :27:15. | |
fourth-largest military force, even after the defence cuts. We are a | :27:15. | :27:18. | |
permanent member of the Security Council of the UN, the idea of our | :27:18. | :27:21. | |
only way to exercise influence in the world is through the European | :27:21. | :27:23. | |
Union, we are members of the European Union, the British people | :27:24. | :27:27. | |
want to be members of it, because of the single market, because of | :27:27. | :27:31. | |
its economic benefits. We are not members of the European Union in | :27:31. | :27:34. | |
order to exercise political influence, that has never been our | :27:34. | :27:39. | |
purpose or what it has delivered to us. The idea this has been a 200- | :27:39. | :27:44. | |
year plan, seems to forget there were quite a few wars in those 200 | :27:44. | :27:50. | |
years, not all about unified Europe. They were? About stopping it. | :27:50. | :27:56. | |
Thank you all very much. They say it is an ill wind that blows no-one | :27:56. | :28:00. | |
any good. This year's shambles in Greece, Ireland, Italy and much of | :28:00. | :28:04. | |
the rest of the eurozone, Maysoon have us all discovering the Joyce | :28:04. | :28:09. | |
of bread, dripping and gruel. They have been a godsend to economists | :28:09. | :28:14. | |
who have been shoved out of the dark corners of offices in the land, | :28:14. | :28:18. | |
to emerge blinking in the glare of the foot lights. Christmas began in | :28:18. | :28:24. | |
January. We have the first of a week of films about the dominating | :28:24. | :28:29. | |
stories of the years. We thought we had turned a corner, | :28:29. | :28:32. | |
the recovery had started and Britain's economy had begun to be | :28:32. | :28:36. | |
transformed. We thought too that Europe's crisis had been stemed at | :28:36. | :28:44. | |
the periphery. But we thought wrong. | :28:44. | :28:50. | |
It all started out so well, for the first three months of the year, the | :28:50. | :28:55. | |
economy grew half a percentage point. It was the right kind of | :28:55. | :29:04. | |
growth. David Cameron had promised to rebalance Britain, through | :29:04. | :29:09. | |
manufacturing. And exports, to replace the jobs lost in the public | :29:09. | :29:13. | |
sector with private sector jobs like these. And, for a while, the | :29:13. | :29:17. | |
facts fitted the narrative. With hindsight, though, things did not | :29:17. | :29:22. | |
turn out as scripted. It is very difficult to argue that we actually | :29:22. | :29:27. | |
produced any home-grown growth, we piggy backed off a global rebound. | :29:27. | :29:31. | |
When the global rebound began to lose momentum and run out of steam, | :29:31. | :29:36. | |
so did we. To boost growth, the authorities | :29:36. | :29:42. | |
had tacitly encouraged the pound to fall. That sucked in inflation | :29:43. | :29:46. | |
which went way above target, but the Bank of England did not raise | :29:46. | :29:51. | |
interest rates. Now, questions were asked. REPORTER: Who was it who | :29:51. | :29:55. | |
revelled in the fall of sterling, who was it that printed �200 | :29:55. | :30:00. | |
billion of quanative easing, who was it who took interest rates to | :30:00. | :30:04. | |
zero, it was this committee. Therefore, you can't sit there and | :30:04. | :30:08. | |
say we have missed the target by factor of 100% and there is nothing | :30:08. | :30:12. | |
to do about it? What would you have done about it REPORTER: Put me on | :30:12. | :30:19. | |
the committee and I will tell you? The governor spelled out the harsh | :30:19. | :30:21. | |
alternatives. Would you have us raise interest rates by a | :30:21. | :30:25. | |
significant amount to reduce a deeper recession, raise | :30:25. | :30:30. | |
unemployment to push money wages down, in the way it has happened in | :30:30. | :30:35. | |
Ireland, Greece and Portugal. mid-year, CPI inflation had reached | :30:35. | :30:40. | |
5%, that was squeezing people's spending power. Real earnings had | :30:40. | :30:44. | |
been ahead of inflation at the start of 2010, now they moved | :30:44. | :30:49. | |
sharply negative, real wages fell by 1.1% this year and are not | :30:49. | :30:52. | |
protected to go positive again until 2013. | :30:52. | :30:56. | |
By now, the story we thought we might be telling ourselves was one | :30:56. | :31:00. | |
of growth rebounding and an economy rebalancing and the worst of the | :31:00. | :31:04. | |
economy crisis behind us. As it is, things have turned out | :31:04. | :31:09. | |
very differently. With wages squeezed, growth now | :31:09. | :31:18. | |
faltered, from an expected.1% to 0.9%, if -- 2.1% to 0.9% f we're | :31:18. | :31:22. | |
lucky. George Magnus has been writing about the economy since the | :31:22. | :31:26. | |
1970s,'s the senior economist at UBS bank. For me personally and for | :31:26. | :31:33. | |
a lot of economists, this is probably the most riveting and | :31:33. | :31:37. | |
fascinating period that we have ever experience lived through. In | :31:38. | :31:42. | |
some case, it is -- experienced and lived through. In some ways it is | :31:42. | :31:47. | |
bigger than 2008. A lot of things we are seeing in 2011 is so close | :31:47. | :31:52. | |
to home. By high summer, the euro was in crisis, Greece in a spiral | :31:52. | :31:58. | |
of falling growth and rising debt. The world facing a Lehman scale | :31:58. | :32:02. | |
event if it went bust. You are looking at the frontline of the | :32:02. | :32:05. | |
world's financial system. Many people in authority believe if | :32:05. | :32:10. | |
Greece defaults on its debts, as the people here want it to, that | :32:10. | :32:19. | |
will echo across the world, in the same way Lehman Brothers did. Then, | :32:19. | :32:24. | |
month after month of indecision by Mrs Merkel and Mr Sarkozy. I think | :32:24. | :32:28. | |
the financial crunch in Europe during the second half of 2011, | :32:29. | :32:32. | |
particularly the withdrawal of European banks from things like | :32:32. | :32:38. | |
trade finance, aircraft financing and other substantial areas that | :32:38. | :32:44. | |
fix the world's financial plumbing actually has had a very dramatic | :32:44. | :32:47. | |
affect on confidence and on spending and lending. That is | :32:47. | :32:51. | |
essentially what drives economic growth. In America too there was | :32:51. | :32:55. | |
paralysis over debt, the President and Congress took it to the wire to | :32:55. | :33:01. | |
set a budget, and then, the USA lost its AAA credit rating. And now | :33:01. | :33:05. | |
across the world, a slow credit crunch began. | :33:05. | :33:11. | |
It was like a chain reaction, the failure to stablise Greece hit | :33:11. | :33:14. | |
confidence, disrupted the finance system and then rebounded into the | :33:15. | :33:19. | |
real economy. We already knew bankers could cause crises, now we | :33:19. | :33:23. | |
found out politicians can cause them too. In the emerging world, | :33:23. | :33:28. | |
which was always looked upon as being the saviour of the planet, | :33:28. | :33:38. | |
:33:38. | :33:38. | ||
economic growth has slowed down quite presip tusly in some -- | :33:38. | :33:41. | |
presippously,ly because they have lost some markets to Europe and | :33:41. | :33:49. | |
partly as a response to their own inflation because of tightening. | :33:49. | :33:55. | |
Britain, buffeted by Europe, then another thing, its own statistician | :33:55. | :33:58. | |
thought it had shrunk more than we had thought. Bad news for growth, | :33:58. | :34:03. | |
worse news for the public finances. So you are going into the next | :34:03. | :34:07. | |
election, promising further billions of bounds in cuts in | :34:07. | :34:11. | |
public spending. That is what you will say in your manifesto at the | :34:11. | :34:15. | |
next election. I'm afraid so, yes. Instead of rapid rebalancing and a | :34:15. | :34:21. | |
returning to growth, Britain faces a long uphill slog, that has begun | :34:21. | :34:25. | |
to raise questions beyond mainstream politics. There is 400 | :34:25. | :34:28. | |
years of economic history in this landscape, you can reduce it all to | :34:28. | :34:34. | |
two kinds of tall building. One, devoted to making money, the other | :34:34. | :34:37. | |
devoted to keeping people moral and civilised, while they make money. | :34:37. | :34:41. | |
And this was a year we started to think carefully about the balance | :34:41. | :34:48. | |
between the two. I think the protests resonate with | :34:48. | :34:53. | |
people, because they strike at questions that we are all asking | :34:53. | :34:58. | |
which is really about where do the rights and responsibilities of | :34:58. | :35:04. | |
citizens and the state, how do they change? Though Britain's Occupy | :35:04. | :35:08. | |
movement, found scant support in the mainstream, its moral critque | :35:08. | :35:12. | |
of capitalism has been given a new urgency by the deteriorating | :35:12. | :35:17. | |
economic news. This may go on for a decade, it may go on for longer, it | :35:17. | :35:22. | |
is very difficult to tell. I think when that begins to sink into | :35:22. | :35:25. | |
people's consciousness, that actually things seem relatively | :35:25. | :35:28. | |
homeless and we don't have solutions, people start to look for | :35:28. | :35:32. | |
different kinds of answers. That may involve a rebalancing of our | :35:32. | :35:35. | |
ideas about markets versus the state. | :35:35. | :35:42. | |
After two failed euro summits and one that succeeded in a diplomatic | :35:42. | :35:47. | |
schism, Britain's future and the eurozone's are tied together, | :35:48. | :35:53. | |
although unwillingly. Finally, question how will 2011 go down in | :35:53. | :35:58. | |
economic history? As a bad year, and the precursor of what will be a | :35:58. | :36:05. | |
worse year in 2012, I'm afraid to say. | :36:05. | :36:10. | |
That's it for 2011, not much, the collapse of an illusion about rapid | :36:10. | :36:14. | |
growth, wage stagnation, mass protests and a whole new world of | :36:14. | :36:18. | |
uncertainty about Europe. And, there is a few more days of this | :36:18. | :36:28. | |
storm-fosed year still left. -- storm-tossed year still left. | :36:28. | :36:33. | |
I'm joined by Gillian Tett and the chief economist, Richard Koo, and | :36:33. | :36:40. | |
from Stanford political analyst from Stanford. This will go on a | :36:40. | :36:49. | |
long time yet? Once the balance sheets are under water and that is | :36:49. | :36:52. | |
realised, and we are paying down debt even with the record interest | :36:52. | :36:56. | |
rates. People are not supposed to pay debts when interest rates are | :36:56. | :36:59. | |
low, they should borrow money. But the same is happening in this | :36:59. | :37:04. | |
country, the US, in Spain, Portugal and other places, they are paying | :37:04. | :37:07. | |
down debt with low interest rates. That is what happened to us in | :37:07. | :37:12. | |
Japan 15 years earlier. When everybody is paying down debt and | :37:12. | :37:18. | |
no-one is paying for the economy, it won't do too well until private | :37:18. | :37:23. | |
sector balance sheets are well again. I med Richard 15 years in | :37:23. | :37:27. | |
Tokyo and he was talking about balance sheet recessions, for | :37:27. | :37:30. | |
example, you have so much debt you can't get out of it through normal | :37:30. | :37:35. | |
means. Back then people thought it was a weird idea, it was just Japan, | :37:35. | :37:40. | |
it would never happen anywhere else? The tragedy is what we saw | :37:40. | :37:46. | |
unfold in Japan is playing out. It means a long period of belt | :37:46. | :37:52. | |
tightening and a lot of stagnation with accompanying social tensions. | :37:52. | :37:57. | |
Japan has enough social cohesion to make sure the society hangs | :37:57. | :38:02. | |
together. The big question is does Europe, does the UK, does the US | :38:02. | :38:12. | |
:38:12. | :38:14. | ||
Francis Fukuyama, what is your assessment of that? (inaudible) | :38:14. | :38:18. | |
going to have to interrupt you there, we seem to have lost the | :38:18. | :38:21. | |
sound from Stanford rather brilliantly. We will get back to | :38:21. | :38:26. | |
you just a second. There you are, are you back with us. I was asking, | :38:26. | :38:30. | |
the discussion Gillian Tett made was that it would take a lot of | :38:30. | :38:34. | |
social cohesion to come through these times, she doubted whether we | :38:34. | :38:41. | |
all had it, what do you think? think that the social cohesion is a | :38:41. | :38:45. | |
problem, the basic problem is in the political systems, both the | :38:45. | :38:49. | |
ufpl states and Europe have decision making systems that | :38:49. | :38:54. | |
provide a lot of vetos to people who are hurt by any particular | :38:54. | :38:58. | |
decision made. That has paralysed the budget process in Washington. | :38:58. | :39:02. | |
That is really what has paralysed the decision-making process in | :39:02. | :39:09. | |
Europe. Where we have an EU with 27 potentially veto wielding groups, | :39:09. | :39:14. | |
and a smaller group of 17, each with its own domestic politics and | :39:14. | :39:19. | |
audiences that have to be brought along. That is a long-term and | :39:19. | :39:23. | |
difficult process. Implicit indeed, explicit is the idea that | :39:23. | :39:28. | |
democracies can't cope, they can't agree a budget, or agrow it in | :39:28. | :39:35. | |
Europe. Unless you put in -- agree in Europe, unless you put in gofpls | :39:35. | :39:40. | |
of technocrats. -- Governments of technocrats. No-one in the | :39:40. | :39:44. | |
technical world were talking about this morning, people thought | :39:44. | :39:48. | |
economics was about putting in numbers and spread sheets. Japan is | :39:48. | :39:53. | |
a country with lots of social cohesion, America was founded by | :39:53. | :39:58. | |
pilgrims, who thought you never run out of resources, you keep making | :39:58. | :40:03. | |
it bigger so you don't have to think about it. Some countries like | :40:03. | :40:09. | |
Ireland appear to have high levels of social cohesion, other parts do. | :40:09. | :40:14. | |
The question is there cohesion across Europe as a whole to | :40:14. | :40:20. | |
allocate pain. What is your assessment? Gillian was nice enough | :40:20. | :40:29. | |
to mention my balance sheet. Learn this in university, maximising | :40:29. | :40:33. | |
profit, minimiseing losses. University has never trained us for | :40:33. | :40:40. | |
this, where the private sector is lowering down interest rates. The | :40:40. | :40:45. | |
whole thing you learn is the private sector maximising profit, | :40:45. | :40:50. | |
this doesn't work if they have negative equity and pay down debts. | :40:50. | :40:55. | |
If everyone does it for a long time, the economy will be very weak, | :40:55. | :41:00. | |
except from the Government help. If they spend on top of t you can | :41:00. | :41:06. | |
maintain the GDP. That is part of the Japanese story. Don't go below | :41:06. | :41:12. | |
the bubble in the entire period, employment rate never went higher | :41:12. | :41:15. | |
than 5.5%. Because the Government was saving in the private sector, | :41:15. | :41:18. | |
that is what kept the Japanese society going. That is not how it | :41:18. | :41:23. | |
is playing out in the US and UK. Let me bring in Francis Fukuyama, | :41:23. | :41:29. | |
and ask, are youle life we upbeat, these are -- relatively upbeat, | :41:29. | :41:32. | |
these are unprecedented circumstances and many say they | :41:32. | :41:35. | |
will only be solved by a fundamental sorting out of the | :41:35. | :41:42. | |
imbalance geen developing nations and the developed nations. | :41:42. | :41:46. | |
There is problems on multiple levels, even before you get to the | :41:46. | :41:53. | |
structural imbalances in the global economy for which we have really no | :41:53. | :42:00. | |
solution. You have these EU wide split kal obstacles, in terms of | :42:00. | :42:09. | |
the -- with the Germans in their own welfare state may feel an | :42:09. | :42:13. | |
obligation towards poor Germans, they have no sense of obligation | :42:13. | :42:16. | |
towards Greeks and other people who think they are behaving | :42:16. | :42:20. | |
irresponsibly. It means that there has been, in a sense, a deeper | :42:20. | :42:24. | |
problem in the EU, that there is no common sense of citizenship, there | :42:24. | :42:28. | |
is no sense of identity that extends obligation across the whole | :42:28. | :42:33. | |
of an area that is, in many ways, comparable to the United States in | :42:33. | :42:37. | |
terms of the size of the population, and the size of the overall economy. | :42:37. | :42:42. | |
The political systems really do not force, they haven't been able to | :42:42. | :42:48. | |
take advantage of this crisis to force a decision. That is really | :42:48. | :42:55. | |
what gives the terrible irony of the last three years. Gillian Tett? | :42:55. | :42:59. | |
Another way of saying it, the key question for the rest is how to | :42:59. | :43:03. | |
allocate pain. There is too much debt, there will have to be | :43:03. | :43:06. | |
cutbacks. Are you going to stuff it on to the weakest members of | :43:07. | :43:12. | |
society, the debtors and creditors. Can our country do what Japan has | :43:12. | :43:16. | |
done, share out the pain in manner everyone continues to buy in. That | :43:16. | :43:20. | |
is a key question. Congress and the great fights going on with the | :43:20. | :43:23. | |
budget is really about how you actually allocate the pain, nobody | :43:23. | :43:27. | |
really want to talk about it openly, because guess what it is not the | :43:27. | :43:33. | |
kind of thing that gets politicians elected. | :43:33. | :43:39. | |
Richard Koo? Let me bring in Francis Fukuyama there? In a | :43:39. | :43:45. | |
certain sense, Japan hasn't faced up to certain structural problems | :43:45. | :43:50. | |
in its economy. The fact it is not really experiencing a real | :43:50. | :43:55. | |
recession, or a real drop in growth that has been prolonged, has | :43:55. | :44:04. | |
allowed politicians to dither on certain basic issues like | :44:04. | :44:11. | |
liberalisation of its ago cultural section, it is a co--- its | :44:11. | :44:15. | |
agricultural section, it is a cohesion that helps them face up to | :44:15. | :44:21. | |
the structural problems they have. Structural problems are for | :44:21. | :44:27. | |
everyone, everybody has structural problems. They are those -- those | :44:27. | :44:30. | |
are people who can't explain what happened to the Japanese economy in | :44:30. | :44:37. | |
the last 20 years, right up to the 1980s, bang, the bubble burst and | :44:37. | :44:41. | |
the momentum was lost, same in the UK, the US and large parts of | :44:41. | :44:44. | |
Europe. That is not a structural problem, it is a balance sheet | :44:44. | :44:48. | |
problem. The private sector, once every several decades go caidzy | :44:49. | :44:55. | |
about the bubble. Once the -- crazy about the bubble. Once the bubble | :44:55. | :44:59. | |
bursts they realise they are underwater, they have to repair the | :44:59. | :45:05. | |
balance sheets at the same time, if everyone tries to re repair the | :45:05. | :45:10. | |
balance sheets all of the same time, it is very hard, the economy | :45:10. | :45:14. | |
weakens because everybody is saving money, nobody borrowing money, even | :45:14. | :45:19. | |
with zero interest rates, there is no way the economy can move forward. | :45:19. | :45:24. | |
Paul in his clip earlier put it nicely in the sea change of mind | :45:24. | :45:33. | |
set that is going on. Economists used to refer to pre200 era, as the | :45:33. | :45:37. | |
low and stable growth, economists understood the world and predicted | :45:37. | :45:42. | |
the future. Now we are living in a period of great angst, not | :45:42. | :45:48. | |
moderation. The economyists are increasingly at sea. There is a | :45:48. | :45:51. | |
Israelisingation there is no way to resolve it. | :45:51. | :45:56. | |
-- realisation, there is no way to resolve it right now. | :45:57. | :46:00. | |
Dramatic developments in the world of science, but first a look at the | :46:00. | :46:05. | |
papers. The Mail, the big sulk is Nick Clegg's response to the mess | :46:05. | :46:12. | |
Nick Clegg's response to the mess in Europe. | :46:12. | :46:18. | |
The Guardian has news, that apparently is a photograph of the | :46:18. | :46:22. | |
missing stag in Exmoor, that may be hanging on the wall in a hotel. The | :46:22. | :46:32. | |
:46:32. | :46:36. | ||
There is a beautiful trailer for BBC wildlife programmes going out, | :46:36. | :46:41. | |
David Attenborough and Wonderful world, here at the cheerful end of | :46:41. | :46:47. | |
tele, we have to make do with the euro crisis. | :46:47. | :46:53. | |
# I see tree s of green # Red roses too | :46:53. | :46:57. | |
# I see them bloom # For me and you | :46:57. | :47:07. | |
:47:07. | :47:13. | ||
# And I think to myself # What a wonderful world | :47:13. | :47:19. | |
# The colours of the rainbow # So pretty in the sky | :47:19. | :47:25. | |
# Are also on the faces # Of people going by | :47:25. | :47:34. | |
# I see friends shaking hands # Saying how do you do? | :47:34. | :47:44. | |
:47:44. | :47:47. | ||
# They are really saying It is a wet and windy night out | :47:47. | :47:50. | |
there. The rain still clinging across the south-east earlier on. A | :47:50. | :47:55. | |
blustery day on Tuesday, strong winds making it feel cold, and the | :47:55. | :47:58. | |
showers turning increasingly wintry across northern Britain, some snow | :47:58. | :48:02. | |
covering at low levels across parts of North West England. A few | :48:02. | :48:06. | |
centimeters by the end of the day. Not too many showers in | :48:06. | :48:11. | |
Lincolnshire and East Anglia, a sunny afternoon. Some showers in | :48:11. | :48:14. | |
the south-east, having a wintry flavour about them, sleet mixed in, | :48:14. | :48:18. | |
across the south west of England, sleet or snow over the moors and | :48:18. | :48:23. | |
over the hills and mountains of Wales. Even at low levels across | :48:23. | :48:26. | |
parts of North Wales, snow building up. Same across Northern Ireland, | :48:26. | :48:29. | |
with the snow showers coming here by the end of the day. By the end | :48:29. | :48:33. | |
of the afternoon a covering in some places, a windy end to the day | :48:33. | :48:36. | |
across Northern Ireland and western Scotland, where the snow showers | :48:36. | :48:40. | |
continue to feed in across the Highlands. As we go through into | :48:40. | :48:43. | |
Wednesday, it is still looking showery and chilly, but maybe not | :48:43. | :48:48. | |
so many showers, a better chance of seeing more in the way of sunshine. | :48:48. | :48:51. | |
Further south, a bit more sunshine, not so many showers around on | :48:51. | :48:54. | |
Wednesday, still feeling chilly, eventhough the winds will be | :48:54. | :48:57. | |
lighter. There will be some snow on Wednesday, chiefly over the hills | :48:57. | :49:00. | |
of western Scotland, Northern Ireland, but also the hills of | :49:00. | :49:05. |