13/12/2011 Newsnight


13/12/2011

With Emily Maitlis. What are the long-term ramifications for relations between the UK and Europe following the backlash against Britain's stance?


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Tonight, a chorus of criticism from Europe, as Cameron's vetos labelled

:00:10.:00:13.

selfish nationalism. There are always for Britain to return its

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rebate money. The head of the commission says the PM's demands

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were unworkable. The United Kingdom, in exchange for giving its

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agreement, asked for specific protocol on financial services,

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which, as presented, was a risk to the integrity of the internal

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market. This made compromise impossible.

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We will discuss the implications for Britain.

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One step closer to the God particle, are we about to solve the mystery

:00:44.:00:50.

of mass in the universe. Earlier scientists got their first

:00:50.:01:00.
:01:00.:01:01.

tantalising results, as they hone in on the his boson. We take you

:01:01.:01:11.
:01:11.:01:18.

So, the recriminations from Europe have begun in full, today two

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senior figures voiced their criticism of David Cameron's's

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decision to veto the new treaty, calling it lacking in solidarity.

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Jose Manuel Barroso, said the demands made by the Prime Minister

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could have undermined the rules of the Common Market, and the leader

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of the European People's Party, the largest group in parliament, called

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on Britain to return its budget rebate as a result of the decision.

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The split with Britain has distracted attention from the fact

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that the separate treaty, agreed by the other 26 members, has failed to

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take the jitters out of the markets. Tonight, amid accusations that

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Britain wants to break the internal market, we ask if Britain's demands

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were unreasonable and what happens now.

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Their dream of a united Europe shattered. Many on the continent

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that David Cameron cold shouldered have wasted no time getting their

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own back on Britain. Today, in the European Parliament, the leader of

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the influential grouping that British Conservatives abandoned

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some years ago, even threatened the rebate on the UK's budget

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contributions. Hard won fruit of so many negotiations.

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TRANSLATION: The British isolation clearly shows that country's

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Government regards the European Union as a simple free trade area,

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it has no consideration for solidarity and responsibility

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towards its partners, and that, in my view, implies a change in the

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behaviour of the 26, and also to an extent, within the European

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institutions, in behaviour towards that country, in particular I think

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the British check is now up for question. Meanwhile, this former

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Prime Minister, scorned a language he's usually happy to use. Tran

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President, I will be speaking my native language today, because I

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don't think English would be a very appropriate language to use!

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In the end, though, he did revert to plain English, to deliver this

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swipe at Mr Cameron. To say it with an English expression to our

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British friends, when you are invited to the table, either it is

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as a guest or otherwise you are part of the man u. The commission's

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President, often considered an anglophile, blamed British

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intransigence for the failure of his attempts to bridge differences

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at last week's summit. Fortunately we haven't seen a split between the

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European Union between the 17 and the 10, this was indeed the

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greatest risk ahead of the summit. This is not an agreement at 17 plus,

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but an agreement of 27, my mus. the single market, finally

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established by -- minus. But the single market is the aspect

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of British intergrai, that Prime Ministers, including Margaret

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Thatcher, and David Cameron, have championed for more than 20 years,

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would the UK really compromise it. The single market only runs because

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it runs on the basis of qualified majority voting. If you give each

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of the 27 nations a veto on each piece of findishly complicated of

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financial services regulations, chemical regulations, the single

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market would never have worked. That is what Margaret Thatcher knew,

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that is why she put it in place in the first place. Now for Cameron

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say yes we will undermine that principle, Barroso had an issue

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with that. David Cameron used his veto, he said, to defend the City,

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but did he need to? One of the proposed European measure that is

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institutions here most fear, a possible tax on financial

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transactions, can only be levyed by unanimity any way. As for other

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regulations that can be introduced by qualified majority voting, many

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say that Britain's view on financial services would carry

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particular weight. This investment director, his firm

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manages �2 billion of assets, isn't sure what exactly in the City the

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Prime Minister was protecting. the moat kwhrif for this veet --

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motive for this veto was to protect the financial services industry

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from Brussels, we are not sure it achieves that outcome. In truth, we

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are not really clear on what those threats might be.

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Some people would be quite surprised to hear you say that, you

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are in the financial services industry, and David Cameron said

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everything he did at the summit last week he did for you? Well, I

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think there is, the financial services industry is clearly a very

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important part of the UK economy. It generate as great deal of tax

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revenue for the UK Government. The Government needs to be seen to be

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supporting what is a very important industry. I'm not sure that this is

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the most effective way to go about it. But, we can understand that the

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principles behind his actions are sound.

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Many in the City think Britain, with its Anglo-Saxon wariness of

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regulation is right to be worried about a union dominated by powers

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traditionally keener on state interference, but Britain isn't the

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only EU member that takes that view, some way we would have protected

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financial interests by all lying with others within the framework of

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treaty negotiations. The countries most disappointed by Cameron's

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walkout are Britain's traditional allies, the northern Europeans, the

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central east Europeans, that have a lot of common interests in Britain,

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in terms of keeping the single market going, keeping the EU open

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to international trade, and making sure that the EU doesn't go down

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the road of more social and tax legislation and harmonisation.

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These countries want Britain to be in the room, to be a strong voice

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to stand up for their joint interests. Tonight Downing Street

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said Mr Cameron had only been seeking equal, not preferential

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treatment for the financial services industry. Whether that

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industry and the rest of our economy are sliding into a

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dangerous isolation, or are now a little safer from the still

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gathering storm in the your Roy zone s a question even the City

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doesn't know the answer to. I'm joined by Aino Lepik Von Wiren,

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the ambassador to the UK for Estonia, Margot James, the

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Conservative MP, and from Strasbourg the Dutch MEP and vice

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chair of the European People's Party, Corien Wortmann-Kool, thank

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you very much for-to-all of you for joining us. Corien Wortmann-Kool,

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to -- thank you very much to all of you for joining us. Corien

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Wortmann-Kool, why would Jose Manuel Barroso say that David

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Cameron's demands undermine the single market? It was actually an

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example of a very bad timing at a very bad moment to defend the City.

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Because 26 member states wanted to agree on more fiscal discipline,

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which would be included in the treaty. It would not affect the UK,

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but to use this moment, this timing, to get exemptions from financial

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markets regulation, that is really a very bad, that is not how you co-

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operate together. Margot James? Well, it never is the right time is

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it, apparently, to stand up for a very key British interest. Which

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should be an interest across the whole of the European Union as well.

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Financial services is not just important to the UK, it is

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important to everywhere else as well. The British Government is

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very concerned about the impending threats of regulation. Wasn't it

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interesting, you heard what the man from the financial services office

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was saying there, actually this whole idea of demanding unanimity

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on the Robinhood tax is something already in place. You -- Robin Hood

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tax is something already in place, you didn't need to make that

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demand? That is not the only one coming down the track, that is one

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of more than 40 threatening regulations coming over on to the

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financial services industry. There is the whole issue of having to

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clear all our euro trade over on the continent as well. That is not,

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that is subject to qualified majority votinging, it is not just

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the -- majority voting, it is not just that which is the headline-

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grabber. There is already the need for unanimity, so there was no

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need? That is only one of 40 regulations on financial services,

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it is the only one subject to unanimity, all the others are sublt

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to qualified majority voting. Subject to qualified majority

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voting. You are the newest member of the eurozone, when you saw the

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negotiations as a country, did you think that David Cameron's position

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was attractive to a smaller, newer country like your's? We went to

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Brussels last week, hoping that all 27 countries could agree on the

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financial dis Palestinian, and also that the market would regain its --

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discipline, and also that the market would regain its confidence

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in the euro. It didn't happen, Estonia is happy about what was

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decided, because it is nothing new for us, because our budget is

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balanced, and for us it is new. There is never a moment you would

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have taken Britain's side, where you would have imagined you being

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part of the ten, on the outer block? We fully agree with what was

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decided in Brussels. We are happy that it was 26 countries that it

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didn't say with 17 and 10, so we are happy about it is decide. We

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are hopeful that this will now be this new treaty will come as soon

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as possible, because the most important thing for Estonia now is

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that the euro will be table and the market will get confidence. Corien

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Wortmann-Kool, when your leader of the EPP, I'm meaning, talks about

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selfish nationalism, it is very hard not to think of it as sour

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grapes towards a leader who, in a big headline, left your grouping a

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couple of years ago. Well, let's look to today. The attitude of

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David Cameron. When 26 member states want to agree on something

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which would not affect the British, on the contrary, the British people

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would benefit from having the eurozone crisis calmed down, so it

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would actually be in the interests of the British. When such a moment

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is chosen to get something additional out for the British, I'm

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afraid, oh no I'm not afraid, I expect this will really harm the

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British position on the negotiating table, on key pieces of legislation,

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which are currently under discussion with regards to

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financial markets and regulations. It will easily work the other way

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round. You heard it there, Margot James will be isolated from this

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decision? Well, there is a great deal more to be gone through before

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it is all settled down. I respect the other view, but there is no

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doubt that the safeguards that David Cameron argued for were

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modest, moderate, they were not extreme in any way, and he

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exercised what is our country's right to exercise. In the defence

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of our interests. Of course it is in our interests to have the

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eurozone crisis solved. We have been arguing that for months now.

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Let me just take it a step further, because the Times front page I'm

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hearing is talking about Tory euro- sceptics trying to force Cameron's

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hand to push for a referendum on Europe now. Is that something that

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he will do, is he prepared to go that far? I don't think so,

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obviously you would have to ask him that. Do you know if he has ruled

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it out, would you like that? Nch I don't think the time is right now

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for a referendum at all. I think the dust has to settle. Even if

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he's riding high in the polls? still would think that the

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referendum that we promised was, from before the election, and that

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was on the Lisbon Treaty, that was ratified, and there is absolutely

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no commitment from this Government to hold a referendum. Let...Unless

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There are more powers, could I just say, that are argued to go to

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Europe. In that case, if there were any treaties that were proposed

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that would demand more powers go from this country to Europe, then

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that would automatically trigger a referendum. You have already vetoed

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a new treaty, the question lies with Britain now, with your

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Government, will you stop the institutions from functioning in a

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way that you are table to, because they are 26 not 27, is that

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something you will do? I think if there is any attempt to use those

:14:43.:14:46.

institutions to regulate the financial services industry, in the

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way that is being proposed, I would expect the Government to use the

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law to prevent that from happening, yes. Corien Wortmann-Kool, one

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thing your leader was saying today, is Britain should return its rebate.

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He made this rather funny speech, there are no Kalashnikovs, no

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declaration of war, of course that is a declaration, at least, of a

:15:08.:15:13.

diplomatic war, isn't it? Will you get the rebate back? No, this is a

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parliament with lively debate, as is the British parliament. So.,

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what he wanted to make clear is it seems the British are only looking

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to their own interests, and they only want to get things from the

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European Union when they like it. But they also have to look to the

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other 26. He was actually making clear that would be needed in order

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to continue a fruitful co-operation. Aino Lepik Von Wiren, do you think,

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briefly, that David Cameron made the wrong decision, when you saw

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the way he negotiated, he didn't bring any other allies on board,

:15:54.:16:04.

was that a mistake? We understand that the UK its decision. But

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Estonia hopes in the future we will have 27 on the new agreement, and

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it could be incorporated into the basic agreement in the EU, that it

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will happen as soon as possible. Thank you very much.

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Later in the propbl, we will be walking you through some of -- in

:16:24.:16:30.

the programme, we will be walking you through some of the economic

:16:30.:16:34.

blizzards in rather graphic form. The charts have been singled out by

:16:34.:16:39.

some of our economists for what they tell us about the year we have

:16:39.:16:42.

just had. Before then, a step closer to understanding the mystery

:16:42.:16:46.

of mass, the scientists confirm they are on the verge of finding

:16:46.:16:49.

what is called the God particle. The Higgs Boson is the last missing

:16:49.:16:54.

piece in a leading theory, known as the standard model, which describes

:16:54.:17:01.

how particles and forces interact to make the world we see about us.

:17:01.:17:09.

Over to SERN, to our science editor. There is great excitement today in

:17:09.:17:13.

Geneva with results that scientists say may be tantalising hints that

:17:13.:17:19.

the Higgs Boson exists. Hundreds of scientists piled into packed

:17:19.:17:24.

auditorium, and heard the latest data on the particle smashing

:17:24.:17:32.

machine, the hadron collider, they looked at various graphs, which was

:17:32.:17:38.

largely impet traibl to journalists there. The reason it has physicists

:17:38.:17:42.

excited, is the two teams working separately have seen a spike in

:17:42.:17:49.

their data at the same point, 125 gig ga electron votes, that is a

:17:49.:17:55.

possible measure of the mass of the Higgs Boson. The mass range for the

:17:55.:17:59.

Higgs Boson was like this at the beginning of the year, and now it

:17:59.:18:04.

was moving and now we are here. In the open window, which is the most

:18:05.:18:09.

likely one, there are fluctuations and intriguing hints, that is

:18:09.:18:12.

exciting. Does that mean you are seeing the first hints of the Higgs

:18:12.:18:17.

Boson? We may be seeing the first hints of the Higgs Boson. One of

:18:17.:18:20.

the things we have just found out this week is the mass regions where

:18:20.:18:25.

we are looking for the Higgs, the places where we see the possible

:18:25.:18:32.

signals for the Higgs, it turns out they are consistent geen the two

:18:32.:18:37.

experiments. Why is it important? If they are in the same place the

:18:37.:18:41.

Higgs is there, if it was not there there would be no reason for them

:18:41.:18:51.
:18:51.:18:52.

to be in the same place. Does this mean the Higgs exists or not?

:18:52.:18:55.

Unfortunately, on that crucial point we have lost our science

:18:55.:19:05.
:19:05.:19:15.

editor, but let's hear what she We don't really know why everything

:19:15.:19:23.

around us exists. Why the universe has form. Why objects have mass.

:19:23.:19:28.

The fundamental question about why we are here remains unanswered. But

:19:28.:19:37.

today's announcement could change all of that. For decades scientists

:19:37.:19:41.

have been searching for a particle, a particle that will give us an

:19:41.:19:46.

insight into the workings of the universe, the Higgs Boson. To find

:19:46.:19:52.

it, they have had to recreate the conditions of the Big Bang.

:19:52.:19:57.

Billions have been spent in the hunt for the elusive Higgs, to

:19:57.:20:03.

detect it, scientists have built the largest particle accel lator,

:20:03.:20:09.

the Large Hadron Collider, an 18- mile tunnel below the French-Swiss

:20:09.:20:12.

border. Sub atomic particles are fired through opposite directions

:20:12.:20:16.

through the tunnel, at a rate approaching the speed of light.

:20:16.:20:22.

With the help of magnets they smash into each other. Detectors monitor

:20:22.:20:25.

the conditions, and search the debris for signs of the Higgs Boson.

:20:25.:20:34.

But what is the Higgs Boson? For the last two years, scientists at

:20:34.:20:38.

the SERN nuclear laboratory have been searching their results on the

:20:38.:20:43.

hunt for the Higgs. The theory about its existence has been around

:20:43.:20:50.

for 50 years. Until now no-one had seen any sign of it.

:20:50.:20:54.

As the universe cooled after the Big Bang, an invisible force known

:20:54.:20:59.

as the Higgs field formed, together with its associated Higgs Boson

:20:59.:21:04.

particle. The field permeates the entire universe, and when a

:21:04.:21:08.

particle without mass passes through the field it accumulates

:21:08.:21:11.

mass, it develops form, that is why there is something rather than

:21:11.:21:17.

nothing. It is very exciting, and it is also very important, because

:21:17.:21:23.

physics needs us to be driven by a mixture of good theories, but of

:21:23.:21:30.

solid experimental data. This hunt for the Higgs is like fishing where

:21:30.:21:35.

instead of using modern tools you were in the water from the pond. It

:21:35.:21:41.

might be looking at the endous, but it is the only very clean way -- at

:21:41.:21:46.

the endous, but -- tedious, it is the only way when you have removed

:21:46.:21:50.

the water from the pond to find any fish. In the run up to today's

:21:50.:21:53.

announcement there was a real buzz, a sense we were on the verge of

:21:53.:21:58.

something big. I would say it would be a milestone in this particular

:21:58.:22:03.

field. Whatever the results will be. We took data now for two years, and

:22:03.:22:08.

I was pretty much involved in data taking. Of course, it is big

:22:08.:22:14.

excitement. In the control room at CERN, they are testing the

:22:14.:22:21.

Clydeer's capabilities. Collider's capablities. When the machines

:22:21.:22:25.

aren't being used, it is time for the engineers to see how far they

:22:25.:22:30.

can push it to its limits. Harnessing the power of this

:22:30.:22:37.

machine is very exciting. It has become a Holy Grail quest, a large

:22:37.:22:40.

part of the motivation for the Large Hadron Collider was to find

:22:40.:22:46.

the Higgs Boson, or whatever replaces it, this really is a

:22:46.:22:50.

culminating point. The Higgs Boson is part of what is known as the

:22:50.:22:56.

standard model of physic -- physics. This is an instruction booklet for

:22:56.:23:01.

how the Cosmos works, to explain how the different particles and

:23:01.:23:08.

forces react. This is the former head of theoretical physics at CERN,

:23:08.:23:11.

Anwar expert at spotting particles amongst the debris. The standard

:23:11.:23:19.

model explains all the fundamentals of particle physics, it can be seen

:23:19.:23:23.

as on enormous jigsaw puzzle and there is a bit missing in the

:23:23.:23:28.

middle. We have been looking for it for 30 years, and behind the sofa

:23:28.:23:35.

we are finally finding it. Without the Higgs, the standard

:23:35.:23:40.

model is incomplete, finding it would help confirm everything we

:23:40.:23:46.

know about modern physics. Built layer upon layer since 19000. But

:23:46.:23:49.

then in September, something happened that could blow all of

:23:49.:23:59.
:23:59.:24:01.

this apart. For nearly a century scientists

:24:01.:24:06.

thought nothing could travel faster than the speed of light.

:24:06.:24:10.

neutrons are arriving faster than they should. The speed of light is

:24:10.:24:13.

not an abitary speed limit we made up because we like it, it is built

:24:14.:24:17.

into our understanding of the very space and time around us. It is the

:24:17.:24:22.

very stage on which physics happens. What has so rocked the world of

:24:22.:24:30.

physics was a beam of neutrinos, the most common and weird of all

:24:30.:24:34.

fundamental particles. They had been sent 450 miles from CERN to a

:24:34.:24:39.

laboratory underground, deep inside a mountain in Italy. But they had

:24:39.:24:44.

arrived 60 billionths of a second sooner than light would have done

:24:44.:24:48.

travelling the same distance. Some scientists thought CERN had sent

:24:48.:24:53.

them in bunches too wide to monitor accurately. So they did it again,

:24:53.:24:58.

with a narrower beam. We sent the beam for two nanoseconds to the

:24:58.:25:04.

target producing neutrinos and they measured it in Italy, you have a

:25:04.:25:07.

precise timing measurement on it, it was the same as the measurements

:25:07.:25:12.

they did before with the long beams. Professor Jon Butterworth works in

:25:12.:25:16.

one of the two teams searching for the Higgs at CERN, he thinks there

:25:16.:25:21.

are many ways the neutrino experiment could have gone wrong.

:25:21.:25:26.

It is such an out-there result, there are many, many thousands of

:25:26.:25:32.

results that confirm relativity, and one that challenges it. Before

:25:32.:25:35.

you throw it away and challenge our understanding so much you want to

:25:35.:25:39.

be sure. In the end it was a careful experiment, they have

:25:39.:25:44.

raised any of the systematics that people raised initially, you have

:25:44.:25:47.

to repeat the result until you are sure, as with any science. Making

:25:47.:25:54.

sense of these results throws up all sorts of possiblities. Some

:25:54.:26:02.

theories talk of ten dimensions of space. So could the neutrinos have

:26:02.:26:07.

taken a short cut through another dimension? Arriving in Italy, back

:26:07.:26:14.

in our dimension sooner than expected.

:26:14.:26:17.

The result is so revolutionary, it has to be repeated before it is

:26:18.:26:23.

seen as robust, but even if it is, would it mean anything to all of us

:26:23.:26:30.

in the real world. I'm sure if you asked Einstien back in 1905 what

:26:30.:26:34.

real world applications would his theory of relativity have, he

:26:34.:26:39.

wouldn't give an answer. Now of course we know that relativeity has

:26:39.:26:44.

to be taken into account in the global positions system, sat-nav.

:26:44.:26:48.

Travelling faster than the speed of light, this is perhaps a crazy

:26:48.:26:52.

remark. But I notice that in the financial world, they are now

:26:52.:26:59.

timing their trades at the level of nanoseconds. So if you could make

:26:59.:27:03.

neutrinos go a little bit faster than light, maybe someone would

:27:03.:27:08.

find a competitive edge. With each of us facing our daily troubles,

:27:08.:27:12.

and with the world of finance and politics in turmoil all around us,

:27:12.:27:18.

why should it matter if we find the Higgs and whether the neutrinos go

:27:18.:27:22.

faster than the speed of light, if there is some deeper symmetry under

:27:22.:27:27.

the surface or not. There is in my opinion a very important means for

:27:27.:27:35.

investing, this is very tiny amount of our wealth, in the future. In

:27:35.:27:41.

what is curiosity-driven research. Without that, without that, we are

:27:41.:27:50.

doomed. It has been within of the most incredible years for physics,

:27:50.:27:55.

hints of the Higgs, and from nowhere, particles that could have

:27:55.:27:58.

broken the cosmic speed limit, we could be on the verge of a new

:27:58.:28:05.

physics, a new understanding of our universe, and our place within it.

:28:05.:28:10.

We are going to tryen to that slightly dodgy line to -- try on

:28:10.:28:18.

that slightly dodgy line to cross to Geneva to when of the CERN

:28:18.:28:24.

physicists join in the hunt for Higgs. She talked there about the

:28:24.:28:28.

sense of this year really, the moment that physics had become fun

:28:28.:28:31.

again, and had become revolutionary. Why do you think this is so central

:28:31.:28:38.

to that, why does this matter? has been a fantastic year for CERN

:28:39.:28:43.

and the Large Hadron Collider, we have been waiting for this for 20

:28:43.:28:45.

years, people have been talking about building these experiments.

:28:45.:28:49.

Already in the summer, in the units we count the number of collision

:28:49.:28:54.

that is have been created in the LHC, we had one inverse part of

:28:54.:28:58.

data to look at. We were already starting to exclude certain masses

:28:58.:29:02.

for the standard model Higgs Boson, today we were looking at five

:29:02.:29:07.

inverse parts of data, five-times more data. For us it was a

:29:07.:29:12.

tremenduously exciting day. The Higgs Boson is a key part of the

:29:12.:29:15.

standard theory, the standard model that describes the way particles

:29:15.:29:19.

interact, it describes the forces between the particles. Without the

:29:19.:29:22.

Higgs Boson, none of the fundamental particles would have

:29:22.:29:25.

any mass, they would whizz around at the speed of light. The universe

:29:25.:29:30.

would not at all be as we know T the standard model has been

:29:30.:29:33.

extremely successful in predicting the way particles interact, the

:29:34.:29:38.

results of all of the collision experiments we have done up to now

:29:38.:29:41.

are very well described by the standard model. Without the Higgs

:29:41.:29:45.

Boson, the whole things falls apart. The question Susan never got to

:29:45.:29:48.

answer before she disappeared, probably into a parallel universe

:29:48.:29:52.

or different dimension, is does the Higgs exist, would you put money on

:29:52.:29:58.

that now? We are certainly a step closer, we know the Higgs Boson is

:29:58.:30:02.

pinned down into a much smaller range of mass than we knew before.

:30:02.:30:06.

Within that mass range we have a tantalising hint, we have spikes

:30:06.:30:11.

from the two experiments, ATLAS and CMS, what's more they have looked

:30:11.:30:15.

at different ways the Higgs Boson might decay, so different channels,

:30:15.:30:18.

different Higgs decay modes, we are seeing a hint of something lining

:30:18.:30:22.

up. We are not at the point where we could claim we have evidence of

:30:22.:30:25.

the Higgs Boson. The Last Years of Edward Thomas experiment, there is

:30:25.:30:29.

still something like a 1% probability that the effects we are

:30:29.:30:33.

seeing today could be a fluctuation of the backgrounds, for CMS about

:30:33.:30:38.

5%. So it is not the end of the road for us. This is the way a

:30:38.:30:42.

Higgs Boson signal would be emerging, but it is too early to

:30:42.:30:45.

say something definitive. Let me ask you. There has been, as we can

:30:45.:30:49.

hear from you, huge progress in this one area, if you expand this

:30:49.:30:53.

out, where else do you think physics is becoming truly ground-

:30:53.:30:59.

breaking now, what is exciting for you? The LHD programme, the Higgs

:31:00.:31:04.

Boson discovery or exclues is just one component of the LHC programme.

:31:04.:31:09.

The next steps for the Higgs will be to finalise the results we were

:31:10.:31:14.

looking at today. Today we were showing preliminary results, in the

:31:14.:31:17.

next few months we will publish those results. We will combine the

:31:17.:31:22.

results of the two experiments, ATLAS and CMS, in 2012 we expect to

:31:22.:31:26.

have something like four-times more data. We will be able to close the

:31:26.:31:29.

book on the standard model Higgs Boson in the coming year. But then

:31:29.:31:33.

the Clydeer will be shut down, we will be refurbishing parts of the

:31:33.:31:36.

connections between the magnets and we will be able to resume taking

:31:36.:31:40.

data at twice the energy. We are hoping to then start to explore

:31:41.:31:44.

problems of physics beyond the standard model. One possibility

:31:44.:31:50.

that we are very excited about is the theory of supersymmetry w the

:31:50.:31:53.

low mass Higgs Boson that we may have seen some first glimpses of,

:31:54.:31:58.

this would be consistent with this theory of supersymmetry, that says

:31:58.:32:03.

all the normal particles we know, have a supersymmetric heavier

:32:03.:32:08.

partner. Why supersymmetry is an appealing theory? One thing is does

:32:08.:32:12.

is have the lowest mass supersymmetric particle, which

:32:12.:32:15.

could explain dark matter. The matter we know and love described

:32:15.:32:19.

by the standard model only makes up 4% of the universe, we don't know

:32:19.:32:23.

what 96% of the Cosmos is made of. One of the hopes for the LHC will

:32:23.:32:26.

be that we find a candidate for this missing dark matter that is

:32:26.:32:29.

making up a huge fraction of the universe.

:32:29.:32:35.

We would love to have you back at that point. Thank you very much.

:32:35.:32:40.

Perhaps it was wrong for Twitter to call our next sequence chart porn,

:32:40.:32:45.

br for those interested in economic data, it certainly doesn't get more

:32:45.:32:48.

salacious than this. We have brought together 11 leading

:32:48.:32:51.

economists to single out the graphic that best demonstrates the

:32:51.:32:56.

key trend in this chilly economic year. The results are an know tated

:32:56.:33:01.

and explained. We will ask a few of the contributors afterwards what it

:33:01.:33:11.
:33:11.:33:14.

the contributors afterwards what it tells us about the Tate we are in.

:33:14.:33:20.

This chart shows the ten-year bonds in the eurozone. Before the euro

:33:20.:33:24.

was created the markets thought there was differences in credit

:33:24.:33:28.

worthiness in different countries. Greece had to pay for more debt,

:33:28.:33:33.

Germany didn't have to pay very much. The euro was created and the

:33:33.:33:36.

markets thought there was no delivering prospects of the

:33:36.:33:39.

different countries. They all merged into one rate, practically.

:33:39.:33:44.

Then we had Lehmans and the financial crisis, and the mood

:33:44.:33:47.

changes significantly. There was clearly no support mechanism for

:33:47.:33:57.
:33:57.:34:03.

private sector has been paying down debt under zero interest rate

:34:03.:34:07.

circumstances, which is highly unusual. People may be paying down

:34:07.:34:11.

debt at higher interest rates, when the rate is at zero, they should be

:34:11.:34:14.

borrowing and spending money. That is not happening in the UK. It is

:34:14.:34:20.

not happening in the US or in Ireland or in Spain. This is not

:34:20.:34:23.

what we learn in universities. So we are in a completely different

:34:23.:34:33.
:34:33.:34:38.

world compared to what we learned shows competitiveness of one

:34:38.:34:43.

country against another in Europe, the horzontal axis shows their

:34:43.:34:47.

relative trade performance. The countries in the top lefthand

:34:47.:34:55.

corner have declining competitiveness and declining trade.

:34:55.:35:03.

That is the underlying problem the eurozone is trying to grapple with.

:35:03.:35:06.

This chart a really interesting because it shows the

:35:06.:35:10.

competitiveness problem within the eurozone. Unit labour costs in

:35:10.:35:15.

Germany have hardly risen since the euro was formed. But the vulnerable

:35:15.:35:20.

ones, the ones in trouble, have seen their costs rise by 30-40%. In

:35:20.:35:25.

the old days they could out of that by devaluing their currency. Now

:35:25.:35:28.

they can't, they are locked within the euro. The interesting thing

:35:28.:35:32.

about this, this is not being dealt with at all by any of the summits,

:35:32.:35:36.

negotiations or deals. This is not a problem that can be solved by

:35:36.:35:44.

bailouts, or write-offs. I think the graph is very striking,

:35:44.:35:48.

because it shows so many things in one picture. Firstly, if you look

:35:48.:35:52.

at what happened when Lehman Brothers went down in late 2008,

:35:52.:35:55.

you can see all of a sudden the Bank of England's calculation

:35:55.:35:59.

suggesting the market did think a chance that a country like Ireland

:35:59.:36:05.

would default on its debt in the last four years. Recently you see

:36:05.:36:09.

that is paled into incision with the things happening elsewhere. In

:36:09.:36:16.

Greece there is suggestions of 100% default in the next five years.

:36:16.:36:19.

The reason I think this chart is interesting, is because it tells me

:36:19.:36:24.

that the rate at which the UK economy can grow sustainably over

:36:24.:36:28.

the medium term, which people thought was 2.5% a year. Is now

:36:28.:36:33.

down to half a periods or lower. If the economy does only -- half a per

:36:34.:36:39.

cent or low. If it does that, unless there is deflation, that

:36:39.:36:47.

will mean defaults on mortgages and the banks not lending. That is the

:36:47.:36:54.

issue George Osborne needs to worry issue George Osborne needs to worry

:36:54.:36:57.

about most. Those are our charts, and back by

:36:57.:37:02.

popular demand the Financial Times US managing editor, Gillian Tett,

:37:02.:37:06.

and Ann Pettifor from Prime scam economics. You should have heard

:37:06.:37:10.

the gasps coming out of the corner of the study.

:37:10.:37:14.

Anne, take us through your graph, first of all, and why you think it

:37:14.:37:20.

tells us so much. My graph is taken from the

:37:20.:37:25.

Government, the Treasury's budget report in March, it is striking to

:37:25.:37:31.

me because it shows the growth in private sector debt in Britain from

:37:32.:37:37.

1987-2010. It is taken from the McKenzie report on global debt,

:37:37.:37:44.

they have excluded public debt. That is the bottom bar. It is less

:37:44.:37:49.

than 50% of the beginning, and rises just above 50 towards the end.

:37:49.:37:54.

So relative to that vast amount of private sector debt, public debt is

:37:54.:37:58.

very small. But all of the public policy making and politicians and

:37:58.:38:01.

economists are focused on the consequence of the growth of that

:38:01.:38:10.

private debt. When the Government talks it talk about the problem

:38:10.:38:15.

with public sector borrowing and bringing that down. If Ann's chart

:38:15.:38:18.

is right the emphasis is completely wrong? The other chart on the

:38:18.:38:21.

Newsnight website looking at the percentage of global Government

:38:21.:38:28.

debt as a percentage the of GDP. It shows since the crisis has began it

:38:28.:38:31.

has shot up very fast. I would say that the creation of Government

:38:31.:38:38.

debt, over the last couple of years, has been extraordinarily rapid, and

:38:38.:38:42.

forecasts for 2012, 2013 continue to see that. In fact, you are

:38:42.:38:46.

looking at a tripling of UK Government debt, in about ten years,

:38:47.:38:51.

if you forecast on a few years. That is why it gets ideolgical?

:38:51.:38:56.

That is because it is a consequence of the crisis. My point is if you

:38:56.:39:01.

don't address the collapse, the delefrpbaging of that private debt

:39:01.:39:08.

now, -- deleverageing of that private debt and focusing on the

:39:08.:39:12.

public debt, you are losing the cause of the crisis. Should the

:39:12.:39:17.

Government sort out private debt, that is not its role? It can't step

:39:17.:39:21.

in a heavy-handed moment now. If you look at the totality of the

:39:21.:39:25.

charts the basic message is telling that many of the fundamental issues

:39:25.:39:31.

to do with the eurozone were absolutely unworkable. You look

:39:31.:39:35.

back at the charts on competitiveness, it is astonishing

:39:35.:39:39.

anybody thought the eurozone could work in its form. It is not just

:39:39.:39:43.

the eurozone that is a problem, the debt is key across the western

:39:43.:39:48.

world, in the UK and US as well. The markets are panicking about it,

:39:48.:39:53.

the level of stress in the markets is worrying. There is one more

:39:53.:39:58.

thing these charts show, it is the defeatism of economists. There

:39:58.:40:02.

aren't solutions in these charts, only problems, only the end of the

:40:02.:40:08.

world, actually. Except for one, that is Ken. If you look at the

:40:08.:40:12.

charts we have seen today, the dashboard we are presenting for

:40:12.:40:14.

policy makers, flying the global economic aeroplane, if you like, it

:40:14.:40:18.

is very different from a decade ago. A decade ago people were watching

:40:18.:40:22.

things like equity markets, and inflation data. It shows in many

:40:22.:40:26.

ways people have been simply watching the wrong metrics in the

:40:26.:40:31.

run up to the crisis. Jo that is what my chart will actually show. -

:40:31.:40:35.

- That is what my chart will actually show. Basically, what

:40:35.:40:39.

Gillian said is completely right, everybody focus on equity markets,

:40:40.:40:47.

bond markets, completely ignore the sexy world of what I have looked at

:40:47.:40:54.

FRA, ORIA spread shart. The FRA is like, the cost of a three-month

:40:54.:41:01.

loan for a bank, and how much more expensive that is, when there is an

:41:01.:41:07.

over night loan from the ECB done over three months. It is the extra

:41:07.:41:12.

cost a bank has to pay for a three- month loan, in these wholesale

:41:12.:41:17.

markets, that are jamming up. In the summer the extra cost was only

:41:17.:41:23.

0.2%, it is now up it a full 1% nor more. If you look it has been

:41:23.:41:27.

forever rising, there is no oh the politician also do something, the

:41:27.:41:33.

rate comes down. Is the ECB on that chart? It is not a real ECB, a rate

:41:33.:41:37.

that is tied to. This is more the banks go into the wholesale market

:41:37.:41:41.

and try to borrow money. This shows you the extra cost of them trying

:41:41.:41:45.

to do that in the wholesale market. This is symptomatic, because the

:41:45.:41:48.

bank is effectively insolvent and people are worried about lending

:41:48.:41:54.

for them. Is this tell us, all the political argument about whether

:41:54.:42:00.

the ECB should step in to bail out the eurozone? But they are stepping

:42:00.:42:04.

in. This is telling us the ECB is not working. The Central Bankers

:42:04.:42:08.

when they try to, all the things they announce, to try to alleviate

:42:08.:42:13.

the problems in the markets t ain't working, clearly. The issue is,

:42:13.:42:19.

this isn't chart born porn, this is chart mang er, it is the way of

:42:19.:42:22.

communicating fatastically complex issues and geeky bits of the market

:42:22.:42:27.

people have ignored for far too long, to the public at large. It is

:42:27.:42:29.

fatastically important to democracy and that politicians understand

:42:29.:42:34.

this stuff and understand the other issues you are pointing too as well

:42:34.:42:40.

Ann. Can I say the only reason economists and politicians came to

:42:40.:42:43.

look at credit masters is because of the great work by Gillian Tett.

:42:43.:42:48.

There is a real interest in the data, the royal data, the peeling

:42:48.:42:51.

away of all the soundbites and the politics, do you think that is

:42:51.:42:55.

because of the state of the summits and the eurozones and all stuff we

:42:55.:42:58.

have talking about? We need to get the public engaged and understand

:42:58.:43:02.

how money goes around the world, or how right now it is not going to

:43:02.:43:05.

around the markets effectively. People don't trust either

:43:05.:43:09.

economists or politicians, because they have been conned. They were

:43:09.:43:14.

told, don't worry, join the euro and there is fairyland there after,

:43:14.:43:18.

go out and take a credit card, borrow to your heart's delight and

:43:18.:43:23.

all will be well, we were encouraged by the politicians and

:43:23.:43:28.

the Alan Green sldfan spans of the world and Central Bank governors,

:43:28.:43:33.

and respected economists. You can also put it aside -- put it on

:43:33.:43:37.

chart. The way you two disagreed about the way you read public-

:43:37.:43:42.

private borrowing suggests that? is about the way economists look at

:43:42.:43:50.

symptoms and not causes. The thing about my charred chart, I think it

:43:50.:43:55.

is ideolgical to have a blindspot for the debts. For a decade we

:43:55.:44:01.

pretended the debt wasn't there and focused on the public sector, that

:44:01.:44:04.

is ideolgical. If can you map a system, you can start to see what

:44:04.:44:08.

people aren't watching, the dark corners, they really matter. Ann

:44:08.:44:12.

deserve as lot of credit, she was trying to highlight these issues

:44:12.:44:17.

many years ago, unfortunately weren't enough people trying to map

:44:17.:44:21.

a system, model it and modify it. We have to map the financial system

:44:21.:44:27.

and work out how to change it. Politicians have very good at

:44:27.:44:31.

blinding us with the science of modelling. The reason why the

:44:31.:44:34.

wholesale credit markets are important, is because if banks

:44:34.:44:39.

can't fund themselves, they cannot then turn around and give that

:44:39.:44:45.

money to businesses and individuals. That is called a credit crunch.

:44:45.:44:49.

Post Lehman, the credit crunch caused massive damage to the global

:44:49.:44:53.

economy, not just the eurozone, the US economy, to the global economy.

:44:53.:44:58.

This is important, these are markets people need to feck cuss on,

:44:58.:45:03.

not equities and -- focus on, not equities and bonds. You can see 11

:45:03.:45:07.

gorgeous graphs selected by some leading economists on the Newsnight

:45:07.:45:10.

website. Let me take you briefly through the front pages of the

:45:10.:45:20.
:45:20.:45:20.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 51 seconds

:45:20.:46:12.

An interesting poll that has reached us, the Conservatives have

:46:12.:46:15.

overtaken Labour in an opinion poll for the first time this year. This

:46:15.:46:20.

is a bounce they are saying on the back of Prime Minister's veto of

:46:20.:46:29.

the new European Union treaty. This comes from a riot areers -- Reuters

:46:29.:46:38.

poll, Cameron more popular. A review from the press hacking

:46:38.:46:48.
:46:48.:47:07.

inquiry tomorrow, from all of us Some pretty serious weather in the

:47:07.:47:11.

forecast, particularly from the end of the week. Overnight tonight it

:47:11.:47:14.

is cold and showery in some places, developing the theme as we go

:47:14.:47:18.

through the day. Some showers falling as snow, not just over the

:47:18.:47:22.

high ground in the north, anywhere could have a flake or two of snow

:47:22.:47:26.

as we go through the day. Some places will see a lot of sunshine

:47:26.:47:29.

through the afternoon, one or two places seeing lively showers and

:47:29.:47:34.

wintry showers too. Maybe down to low levels. Southern coastal areas

:47:34.:47:38.

are most prone to heavy and thundery showers. Hail and a gusty

:47:38.:47:43.

wind. Even across the south west of England a few flakes of snow. It

:47:43.:47:47.

will be cold everywhere, despite some places seeing sunshine.

:47:47.:47:51.

Temperatures around 5-6, when the showers come along they fall away

:47:51.:47:54.

by several degrees. It is not all bad news, for Northern Ireland

:47:54.:47:58.

plenty of sunshine, largely bright and breezy through the afternoon.

:47:58.:48:01.

Showers still affecting northern and western parts of Scotland.

:48:01.:48:04.

Further south and east, after another showery start, things will

:48:04.:48:08.

tend to dry out. On Thursday, some sunshine, for a time, rain clouds

:48:08.:48:13.

gathering across the south west. There is a lot of uncertainty about

:48:13.:48:17.

what happens after that. The low pressure system winding itself up

:48:17.:48:20.

down to the south west is not sure of the way to go. There is the

:48:20.:48:25.

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