Browse content similar to 11/04/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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On tonight's programme, will Spain be the straw that breaks the back | :00:13. | :00:17. | |
of the euro? Titanic power struggles at the very | :00:17. | :00:21. | |
top in China. We talk to senator John McCain on | :00:21. | :00:25. | |
how to stop Bashar al-Assad murdering his citizens. And our | :00:25. | :00:27. | |
political editor learns that David Cameron has been asked by the | :00:27. | :00:32. | |
United Nationss to rewrite the Millennium Development Goals. | :00:32. | :00:36. | |
As elections loom, the President of France fights for his political | :00:36. | :00:43. | |
life, what can he honestly claim as a core conviction? | :00:43. | :00:48. | |
He is one of the most amazing friends you may have in life. But I | :00:48. | :00:58. | |
:00:58. | :01:00. | ||
must say the core belief is not his cup of tea. | :01:00. | :01:06. | |
In all the hoo ha about pasties and petrol, and how good it is for the | :01:06. | :01:10. | |
rich in Britain, we have taken our eye off the crisis in Euroland, it | :01:10. | :01:17. | |
hasn't gone away. It rather resembles Jesus' description of the | :01:17. | :01:22. | |
poor, always with us. Spain is far bigger deal than Greece and the | :01:22. | :01:24. | |
financial markets are plainly unconvinced by what the Government | :01:25. | :01:30. | |
says it will do to sort out its massive debts. We will speak with | :01:30. | :01:36. | |
the Spanish Ambassador, but first, we have this report. | :01:36. | :01:41. | |
Greece may have monopolised the headlines in the crisis so far, but | :01:41. | :01:45. | |
Spain is now a genuine concern. Its economy is huge and it is in free | :01:45. | :01:48. | |
fall. Unemployment is the highest in the developed world, industrial | :01:48. | :01:52. | |
output is fall, and austerity almost as draconian as Greece, is | :01:52. | :01:59. | |
on its way. And the Prime Minister, jog jog jog, | :01:59. | :02:08. | |
after admitting Spain -- -- today lashed out at his EU neighbours, | :02:08. | :02:13. | |
particularly Italy, for stoking up market fears. TRANSLATION: I wish | :02:13. | :02:18. | |
to say the following with regard to some statements made in the EU, | :02:18. | :02:22. | |
more explicitly last night by some EU leaders. We hope they assume | :02:22. | :02:25. | |
their responsibilities and are much more cautious in their statements. | :02:25. | :02:29. | |
We don't talk about other countries, we wish other EU and eurozone | :02:29. | :02:38. | |
countries the best. What is good for Spain is good for the eurozone. | :02:38. | :02:43. | |
He and his centre right party were elected over four months ago with a | :02:43. | :02:47. | |
resounding majority, much of that was due to the intense dislike of | :02:47. | :02:53. | |
the outgoing socialist, that a ground dwell in favour of the | :02:53. | :03:02. | |
slightly dour Rajoy. None of them will accuse him of sugar coating | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
the austerity pill. Is he burning through his political capital as he | :03:06. | :03:11. | |
tries to right the Spanish ship? He's coming short of delivering the | :03:11. | :03:15. | |
goods by what we have seen so far. It is clear with the market | :03:15. | :03:19. | |
turbulence in the last few days, that the markets think it is not | :03:19. | :03:23. | |
enough. Spain has serious problems, both in the banking sector and the | :03:23. | :03:26. | |
public sector finances. Both balance sheets of the banking | :03:26. | :03:30. | |
sector and the public sector are hard to disentangle, as a result we | :03:30. | :03:33. | |
have a crisis of confidence in the ability of Spain to restore growth, | :03:33. | :03:40. | |
and so we are in trouble. Like Ireland, Spain's problem was a | :03:41. | :03:43. | |
massive property bubble that burst, that collapse has dragged the | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
national Government down with it. Unlike Ireland, Spain has yet to | :03:47. | :03:51. | |
bite the bullet on wholesale reform of its banks. Especially its | :03:51. | :03:56. | |
regional savings banks. The problem with the Spanish debt | :03:56. | :04:00. | |
mountain is it is more akin to the iceberg, what you see on the | :04:00. | :04:02. | |
surface is the money owed by the national Government, and doesn't | :04:02. | :04:06. | |
include the money borrowed, from places like the City of London, by | :04:06. | :04:12. | |
regional parliaments and Governments. The debt to GDP ratio | :04:12. | :04:18. | |
for the federal Government is GDP, the figure for Catalonia is closer | :04:18. | :04:22. | |
to 120%, that is a problem that needs solving soon. Recognition of | :04:22. | :04:26. | |
the indebtedness of the regions in Spain is a major problem that | :04:26. | :04:29. | |
probably hasn't been fully discounted into the financial | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
markets at this stage. I think the market is going to come to an | :04:33. | :04:39. | |
estimate for all of Spain bailout on a regional level. That could be | :04:39. | :04:43. | |
the straw that breaks the camel's back in terms of the need for | :04:43. | :04:47. | |
European public financing. Spain disappeared off our eurozone | :04:47. | :04:55. | |
radars for a few months, because the market were stewfied by cheap | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
EC money. The benchmark cost of borrowing for Spain had been rising | :04:59. | :05:02. | |
steadily until last November, before falling dramatically when | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
the first wave of cheap loans were offered. The process was repeated | :05:06. | :05:09. | |
at the end of February, that pushed down yields. Now it looks like the | :05:10. | :05:14. | |
drug is wearing off, and Spain might soon be doing very cold | :05:14. | :05:18. | |
turkey, making the possibility of a bailout very real. Does the | :05:18. | :05:23. | |
eurozone even have the money to bail out its fourth-largest member. | :05:23. | :05:27. | |
If it happens in the next few months, I think the Europeans will | :05:27. | :05:31. | |
be approaching it on a piecemeal level. They will be addressing the | :05:31. | :05:39. | |
specifics of say the Cajas, or the regions, as long as it is done on a | :05:39. | :05:42. | |
step-by-step basis, there is ample funding now. If you were look, say, | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
and had a time machine, and were to look backwards at the all-inclusive | :05:47. | :05:52. | |
costs of the bailout, what it ultimately might cost for the | :05:52. | :05:54. | |
Europeans, you probably wouldn't have that amount of funding | :05:54. | :05:59. | |
available at this stage. But while Brussels and Berlin check | :05:59. | :06:03. | |
their wallets, they will, no doubt, be asking whether the Spanish | :06:03. | :06:07. | |
populus has the stomach for the drop in living standards demanded. | :06:07. | :06:12. | |
It will be difficult in Spain, especially because any cuts in | :06:12. | :06:17. | |
health and education will hit with the regional Governments and that | :06:17. | :06:23. | |
will create a lot of anger and intense sentiment. We are already | :06:23. | :06:29. | |
seeing the regions claiming their territory, and saying they will not | :06:29. | :06:34. | |
take those cuts. It is going to be much harder than in a smaller and | :06:34. | :06:38. | |
more centralised country like Greece or Portugal. | :06:38. | :06:45. | |
If you were to take a glass half full attitude, you might say that | :06:45. | :06:50. | |
Mr Rajoy's comments of late are a political ruse to soften up the | :06:50. | :06:56. | |
Spanish public. If your glass is half empty, you could view the | :06:56. | :07:00. | |
recent events in Spain as a restarting of the European crisis | :07:00. | :07:05. | |
and one that could have far worse impact for the rest of us. Here to | :07:05. | :07:09. | |
talk about Spain's financial turmoil is the spannic ambassador | :07:09. | :07:13. | |
to the UK. This assurance that your economics minutes -- Spanish | :07:13. | :07:15. | |
Ambassador to the UK. This assurance that your economics | :07:15. | :07:20. | |
minister has given, that there is no need for a rescue at this time, | :07:20. | :07:25. | |
how long is that valid for? I hope forever. But there is no guarantee, | :07:25. | :07:31. | |
is there? There is no guarantee of anything. We know that the eurozone | :07:31. | :07:38. | |
is undergoing a difficult situation, we know that Spain has a fragile | :07:38. | :07:44. | |
economy, but Spain is doing all it takes, and is prepared to do all it | :07:44. | :07:50. | |
takes to avoid a rescue and bailout. There has been a pattern of finance | :07:50. | :07:53. | |
ministers, or prime ministers, saying we do not envisage any need | :07:53. | :07:58. | |
for a rescue, and then the rest cue, of course, happens. It happened -- | :07:58. | :08:02. | |
rescue, of course, happens. It happened in Portugal and Greece, | :08:02. | :08:05. | |
and in Ireland, two days after the Prime Minister said there was no | :08:05. | :08:09. | |
need for it. The Finance Minister has to deny. But in our case, let's | :08:09. | :08:19. | |
:08:19. | :08:21. | ||
see, we have no big auction, no big bond auctions coming up now. More | :08:21. | :08:25. | |
or less we have the impression it will be fully subscribed, and then | :08:25. | :08:32. | |
the next time is in July. Our situation is difficult, we are | :08:32. | :08:37. | |
struggling, it is not, the Spanish economy is not the only one in | :08:37. | :08:42. | |
Europe that is struggling. But, the Government is taking all the | :08:43. | :08:50. | |
measures that we think are needed to ensure first that no bailout is | :08:50. | :08:54. | |
necessary, and second, to pave the way for economic growth in the near | :08:54. | :08:58. | |
future. We know that we are going to contract, our economy is going | :08:58. | :09:02. | |
to contract. We will come to growth in a minute | :09:02. | :09:06. | |
or two, there is a really big problem here, isn't there? How much | :09:06. | :09:12. | |
of public spending is actually controlled by central Government? | :09:12. | :09:21. | |
Much more than is thought here, central Government controls about | :09:21. | :09:25. | |
70 %. That means there is 30% or more that is not under the control | :09:25. | :09:31. | |
of central Government, and is...Well, But regional Governments | :09:31. | :09:36. | |
are under the control of some of the big parties, and both of them | :09:36. | :09:42. | |
are committed. No, there is no doubt, there is full commitment by | :09:42. | :09:46. | |
all, both the central Government, and the regional Government. Is it | :09:46. | :09:49. | |
not the case when Catalonia, for example, was asked to reduce its | :09:49. | :09:55. | |
budget deficit to 1.3%, it said it can't do that and it will go to | :09:55. | :10:01. | |
2.6%, and came in at 3.7%? Perhaps not that much. But Catalonia has | :10:01. | :10:08. | |
taken huge measure, and will continue to take huge measures. In | :10:08. | :10:12. | |
Catalonia the Government has taken measures concerning the health | :10:12. | :10:18. | |
system, public servants' pay, and they are prepared to take those | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
measures. Let's look at the question of growth, then, you say | :10:21. | :10:26. | |
that will be the solution, half of young people in Spain under the age | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
of 25 are unemployed, aren't they, how do you get growth when you have | :10:29. | :10:36. | |
that sort of problem? A huge problem we have. Unemployment. | :10:36. | :10:40. | |
Perhaps our biggest problem. Depending on the way you look at it, | :10:40. | :10:44. | |
the problem is not as big as it looks. Yes, if you take, for | :10:45. | :10:52. | |
instance, a number of hours actually worked in the economy, if | :10:52. | :10:57. | |
you take the percentage of the total possible hours worked, in | :10:57. | :11:04. | |
Germany, for instance, you will see that out of the total number of | :11:04. | :11:11. | |
hours that all people between 15-65 could work, they work 52% of the | :11:11. | :11:20. | |
hours. In France 46%, in Spain 48%. So we have a huge problem, because | :11:20. | :11:26. | |
our labour laws don't allow for part-time jobs, things like this. | :11:26. | :11:31. | |
But the Government has taken both measures to correct this. | :11:31. | :11:36. | |
Thank you very much. Now, as mysteries go, it takes some | :11:36. | :11:41. | |
beating, a charismatic political lead e tipped as a future leader of | :11:41. | :11:44. | |
the most populus nation on earth is sacked, his wife accused of | :11:44. | :11:50. | |
involvement in the mysterious death of an Englishman. The Chinese state | :11:50. | :11:55. | |
media did what they were told and justified the removal of the rising | :11:55. | :12:03. | |
star, Mr. Something very unusual has happened, it is not easy to | :12:03. | :12:13. | |
:12:13. | :12:16. | ||
find out the details of what and why. In this ancient Chinese game, | :12:16. | :12:21. | |
the object is to surround your opponent, to make his next move | :12:21. | :12:26. | |
impossible and eliminate him. Now, amid allegations of murder, it | :12:26. | :12:34. | |
looks like China's leaders are playing the game for real. | :12:34. | :12:40. | |
Chongqing, a city of 30 million, ruled until now, by one man. | :12:40. | :12:50. | |
:12:50. | :12:52. | ||
Capitol Hill Capitol Hill Capitol Hill, rose through - Bo Xilai rose | :12:52. | :12:58. | |
through the ranks and taught people to sing revolutionary songs. He's | :12:58. | :13:02. | |
an unusual politician in China. If China were a democracy, Bo Xilai | :13:02. | :13:05. | |
would probably stand a very good chance of being elected. He can | :13:06. | :13:10. | |
connect with people. He cracked down hard on organised crime, he | :13:10. | :13:18. | |
appealed in a sort of populist way to Maoist traditional feelings in | :13:19. | :13:22. | |
China. This year, with an imminent change | :13:22. | :13:30. | |
in the party leadership, Bo looked set to win a place within the inner | :13:30. | :13:40. | |
:13:40. | :13:40. | ||
core of the Politburo. Now he would be lucky to avoid criminal charges. | :13:40. | :13:47. | |
China's leaders are halved between the Communist Party and those who | :13:47. | :13:50. | |
are rhetorical, left-wing, hardliners, a game actually played | :13:50. | :13:55. | |
out. Bo threatened to play it out in public, and with mass | :13:55. | :14:01. | |
participation. But somebody, somewhere, made a fatal false move. | :14:01. | :14:04. | |
Last November, Neil Heywood, a British businessman and friend of | :14:04. | :14:09. | |
Bo Xilai, was found dead in a hotel in Chongqing, the authorities | :14:09. | :14:13. | |
claimed it was alcohol poisoning, his body was cremated without | :14:13. | :14:21. | |
autopsy. Then, in February, this man, Wang | :14:21. | :14:27. | |
Lijun, Bo security chief, entered a US kol sul late building to claim | :14:27. | :14:34. | |
political asylum. He claimed he was investigating the death and had | :14:34. | :14:40. | |
discovered evidence that angered Bo and feared for his life. After the | :14:40. | :14:48. | |
Chinese premier criticised Bo, he was striped of his title, and his | :14:48. | :14:52. | |
wife named as the chief suspect in the murder. Others are convinced | :14:52. | :14:57. | |
there is a bigger story. This is not a murder case, even though | :14:57. | :15:00. | |
somebody might or might not have been murdered, we don't know if Mr | :15:01. | :15:05. | |
Heywood was murdered. The whole thing is largely political, it | :15:05. | :15:12. | |
started with Mr Bo's top Lieutenant going to the US consulate to seek | :15:12. | :15:16. | |
political asylum, which would then make him a traitor, and therefore | :15:16. | :15:21. | |
provide the opportunity for Mr Bo's enemies in the top leadership to | :15:21. | :15:28. | |
strike him down. When Mr Bo lost his job, as the party secretary in | :15:28. | :15:31. | |
Chongqing. The British Government, which has been pressing for an | :15:31. | :15:35. | |
investigation into Neil Heywood's death, welcomed the move. On the | :15:35. | :15:39. | |
case of Neil Heywood, we did ask the Chinese to hold an | :15:39. | :15:43. | |
investigation, and we are pleased that they are now doing that. And | :15:43. | :15:47. | |
we stand ready to co-operate in any way we can. I think it is important | :15:47. | :15:51. | |
we get to the truth about what happened in this very disturbing | :15:51. | :15:56. | |
case, very tragic case. But where does this leave the west's wider | :15:56. | :16:00. | |
relationship with China. This man spend 30 years at the Foreign | :16:00. | :16:05. | |
Office covering the country. Do you think the west gives credence to | :16:05. | :16:11. | |
the essential story? In a sense you have to. Because the mind boggles | :16:11. | :16:16. | |
at anything else. But there are huge gaps in that story, quite why | :16:16. | :16:22. | |
people acted as they did, quite what the falling out was over. Why | :16:22. | :16:28. | |
someone as powerful as Bo Xilai's wife, let alone himself, should | :16:28. | :16:34. | |
feel it necessary to have this really unfortunate businessman, | :16:34. | :16:36. | |
Neil Heywood, murdered, it is extraordinary, what can drive | :16:36. | :16:39. | |
someone to do that. And to expect that they can get away with it, | :16:39. | :16:45. | |
that is the sort of arrogance of power, that is one of the worries I | :16:45. | :16:49. | |
think that the Chinese Communist Party have. If these people can | :16:49. | :16:52. | |
behave like that to a foreigner, how on earth are they behave to go | :16:52. | :16:57. | |
the people of China. When you meet Chinese officials, they will | :16:57. | :17:01. | |
sometimes speak quietly about this division within the party. They | :17:01. | :17:04. | |
assume the power blocks could co- exist together, and all | :17:04. | :17:08. | |
transsignificants of power at the top would be orderly and negotiate | :17:08. | :17:11. | |
-- transitions of power at the top would be orderly and negotiated. | :17:11. | :17:15. | |
The strange case of Bo Xilai, to put it mildly, complicates things. | :17:15. | :17:21. | |
What we are, in fact, seeing, is the kind of old fashioned court | :17:21. | :17:27. | |
politics, that would one perhaps have seen in the European court, | :17:27. | :17:33. | |
400 or 500 years ago. We are not seeing China moving in the | :17:33. | :17:35. | |
direction of institutionalisation of its politics, that everybody | :17:35. | :17:43. | |
would like to see. The events in Chongqing remain like | :17:43. | :17:48. | |
the city, shrouded in fog. What is clear is for the first time since | :17:48. | :17:52. | |
1989, there is a split in the leadership. And how the game ends | :17:52. | :17:58. | |
is unpredictable. With us to discuss the many | :17:58. | :18:04. | |
mysteries of the story are Martin Jakes, author of When China Rules | :18:04. | :18:10. | |
the world, Dr Linda Lui, and the professor of international politics | :18:10. | :18:16. | |
at the University of Bristol. How significant an event is this? | :18:16. | :18:20. | |
very important, because ever since Tiananmen Square, and when the | :18:20. | :18:26. | |
general secretary was turfed out by Xaoping, there hasn't been anything | :18:26. | :18:31. | |
like this at the highest level, nearly the highest level of Chinese | :18:31. | :18:39. | |
politics. Bo Xilai is clearly meeting his political demise, but, | :18:39. | :18:45. | |
the backdrop to all of this is a major struggle taking place in the | :18:45. | :18:49. | |
Chinese leadership, over the leadership emerging from the party | :18:49. | :18:52. | |
conference in autumn, and secondly, over the policies to be pursued by | :18:52. | :18:57. | |
the new leadership. Do you see it in much the same terms as a power | :18:57. | :19:01. | |
stringle? It definitely reflects the fact that the Communist Party | :19:01. | :19:04. | |
within itself has had a number of factions. It is just the glimpse we | :19:04. | :19:09. | |
are getting, that is interesting. Is it ideolgical, or just about | :19:09. | :19:16. | |
naked power? Well, if I had to venture a punt on that, I would say | :19:16. | :19:19. | |
naked power. Bo Xilai was associated with a lot more moves | :19:19. | :19:23. | |
towards a state-led, investment model. He was popular, in the sense | :19:23. | :19:31. | |
that he was talking about a -- an era of equality which a lot of | :19:31. | :19:34. | |
Chinese people like because of the inequality. If you strip it back, | :19:34. | :19:39. | |
he was clearly somebody who was a rising star. But the last time I | :19:39. | :19:45. | |
was in China, that most policy makers knew who the next generation | :19:45. | :19:51. | |
of leaders would be, he was josling for position. Do you think we will | :19:51. | :19:55. | |
see -- Josling for position. Do you think we will see more? This is not | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
the end of the scandal of this event that we are looking at now. | :19:58. | :20:03. | |
What is interesting, of course, is this drama, attached today this, | :20:03. | :20:09. | |
partly because of this murder case, and also the defection of the | :20:09. | :20:13. | |
police chief, again and also involving a murder of a foreign | :20:13. | :20:22. | |
national, which is a British businessman. All we see when we see | :20:22. | :20:28. | |
the Chinese leadership s late middleaged men, in identical suits, | :20:28. | :20:34. | |
using identical hair dye. It opens up something fascinating. They are | :20:34. | :20:43. | |
not middleaged, they are all in their 60s. This is part of the | :20:43. | :20:50. | |
political transition we are looking at. It is certainly not, as has | :20:50. | :20:57. | |
been comment, this is not what we have anticipated. We all thought at | :20:57. | :21:02. | |
some stage that the political axe sgs in China was happening, and -- | :21:02. | :21:07. | |
accession in China was happening, and this fourth or fifth generation | :21:07. | :21:10. | |
transition would be smooth, now we don't know what is next. It is | :21:10. | :21:13. | |
taking place in a completely changed world, which people are | :21:14. | :21:18. | |
tweeting and communicating, social media and all the rest. It is | :21:18. | :21:21. | |
fascinating. One thing that is very interesting, is the extent to which | :21:21. | :21:26. | |
this has become public, and it is being discussed and known about in | :21:26. | :21:31. | |
real time, as opposed to way after the event, which used to be much | :21:31. | :21:35. | |
more the case. What is this a result of? It is the result of the | :21:35. | :21:41. | |
opening up of Chinese society, internet, microblogs, a less | :21:41. | :21:46. | |
sensored media, and so on. Now -- censored media, and so on. Now the | :21:47. | :21:51. | |
Chinese have more access to the key debates. This is a big problem for | :21:51. | :21:54. | |
the leadership, if people know about it? Yes, I think one of the | :21:54. | :21:59. | |
issues here is they are going to have to get used to T increasing | :21:59. | :22:03. | |
transparency is -- to it, increasing transparency is | :22:03. | :22:08. | |
something they can't return the clock back on. It is such high | :22:08. | :22:11. | |
publicity, involving a foreigner, and there will be more instances | :22:11. | :22:15. | |
where China will have to become more open about the kinds of issues | :22:15. | :22:20. | |
that this case poses, corruption, succession, responsiveness, | :22:20. | :22:25. | |
ideology, development, these are all things, as they become more | :22:25. | :22:28. | |
globally integrated, foreign investors, foreigners dealing with | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
China, will want to see more and they will have to respond to that. | :22:31. | :22:35. | |
We will come to that in a minute or two. Do you know anything about how | :22:35. | :22:41. | |
it is being seen seen within China? You have a whole spectrum of | :22:41. | :22:47. | |
different opinions, obviously. You have some kind of supporters of Bo | :22:47. | :22:50. | |
Xilai's policies, the policies for equal and social justice, that | :22:50. | :22:57. | |
Linda has just commented on. Also you have the other spectrum, which | :22:57. | :23:00. | |
obviously looks at his manoeuvring for leadership position. So you | :23:00. | :23:07. | |
have a spectrum of, which is reflected in the microblock, and | :23:07. | :23:14. | |
the comments. You have billions of people using, 250 people -- 250 | :23:14. | :23:18. | |
million people using that. Everybody is talking about Bo Xilai, | :23:18. | :23:23. | |
and what led to his downfall, and what this tells them about Chinese | :23:23. | :23:26. | |
politics. Then we have this intriguing element of this | :23:26. | :23:32. | |
unfortunate man who died in China, the circumstances are very opaque., | :23:32. | :23:39. | |
given that the economy so much depends, upon, or has depended on | :23:39. | :23:42. | |
western involvement, not perhaps the primary challenge now, what | :23:42. | :23:47. | |
will it do to the way western businesses regard China? How they | :23:47. | :23:52. | |
handle it will be crucially important. This does come on the | :23:52. | :24:01. | |
back of the executive of Mr Hu, imprisoned in China a few years ago. | :24:01. | :24:04. | |
The ability of the Chinese Government to continue to show, | :24:04. | :24:08. | |
even if they are not an and democracy, but have increasingly | :24:08. | :24:11. | |
improved rule of law and transparency of that process, will | :24:11. | :24:15. | |
be crucial. If you look at what China needs now, I would say they | :24:16. | :24:19. | |
need global integration, beau the reason they have grown so quickly | :24:19. | :24:22. | |
is because they integrated and caught up on manufacturing, the | :24:22. | :24:25. | |
next phase of growth requires doing the same thing on services. That | :24:25. | :24:30. | |
means for moreeners, more engagment with the global market. I think one | :24:30. | :24:33. | |
of the things that China has lagged behind on is reforming rule of law | :24:34. | :24:39. | |
to catch up with the economic reforms. The fact that his wife has | :24:39. | :24:47. | |
been arrested, is she going to get a fair trial. Is the arrest an | :24:47. | :24:53. | |
indication of guilt, how does it work? Obviously they have very | :24:53. | :24:58. | |
strong evidence, we could see from the report, even by the Chinese | :24:58. | :25:03. | |
media, and from the police chief, you know, we don't really know what | :25:03. | :25:10. | |
he has talked with the American consulate. From the reports from | :25:10. | :25:13. | |
the Chinese media they already have some kind of evidence. This case | :25:13. | :25:18. | |
will be cut niceed, not only by chine -- scrutinised, not only by | :25:18. | :25:22. | |
the Chinese media, but globally. I would expect a rather fair trial of | :25:22. | :25:27. | |
this particular case, at least. the outcome in doubt, the outcome | :25:27. | :25:34. | |
of the trial? Why should it be in doubt. So the judiciary is | :25:34. | :25:42. | |
independent? Well, I think they will present this as independent, | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
as they possibly can. This has a lot to do with the image of China. | :25:46. | :25:51. | |
How do you think the trial will go? I wouldn't be too optimistic, | :25:51. | :25:56. | |
myself. But I think that if they have already arrested her, they | :25:56. | :26:01. | |
have said she is being held by the judicial authorities, that is the | :26:01. | :26:06. | |
phrase. I think that they have already, and what they have already | :26:06. | :26:11. | |
put out about it, for the murder of Neil Heywood and so on. I think | :26:11. | :26:17. | |
that it is going, she will be found guilty. And she may well be guilty, | :26:17. | :26:25. | |
I think she will be found guilty. The Syrian Government, if you can | :26:25. | :26:29. | |
believe them. Says its guns will fall silent at dawn tomorrow. The | :26:29. | :26:33. | |
time specified for a ceasefire by the United Nations' representative | :26:33. | :26:37. | |
in the region. The regime reserved the right, though, to resume | :26:37. | :26:41. | |
killing its own citizens, if it faced any opposition. It didn't | :26:41. | :26:45. | |
undertake to one of the requests to withdraw troops from built-up areas. | :26:45. | :26:49. | |
Western countries wring their hands, unable to agree what to do, and | :26:49. | :26:53. | |
knowing the Syrian regime has the support of Russia on the UN | :26:53. | :26:58. | |
Security Council. Speaking tonight, Hillary Clinton, expressed unease | :26:58. | :27:02. | |
about whether the ceasefire in Syria would hold. We are alarmed | :27:02. | :27:12. | |
:27:12. | :27:14. | ||
for the on going violence in Syria, we are concerned about the problems | :27:14. | :27:19. | |
facing special envoy, Kofi Annan, as he attempts to bring about a | :27:19. | :27:24. | |
ceasefire. Senator John McCain has just visited the Syrian border, he | :27:24. | :27:31. | |
can talk to us from Arizona. Let me play devil's advocate, Syria is a | :27:31. | :27:34. | |
sovereign country, there are serious problems of unrest on the | :27:34. | :27:39. | |
streets there. Why is the regime there not to be allowed to deploy | :27:39. | :27:48. | |
its own forces to restore law and order? Because according to | :27:48. | :27:53. | |
international law, and all norms of behaviour, is Governments are not | :27:53. | :27:59. | |
allowed to massacre their own citizens, especially in the wanton | :27:59. | :28:03. | |
way that the Bashar al-Assad's regime is conducting itself. It is | :28:03. | :28:09. | |
a violation of UN charters, other provisions of international law. | :28:09. | :28:18. | |
What help do you propose that the rest of the world gives the rebels? | :28:18. | :28:22. | |
Well, first of all, we have to understand it's not a fair fight. | :28:22. | :28:30. | |
Russian arms are pouring in to Syria. Iranians are not only | :28:30. | :28:33. | |
providing them with assistance in a material way, there are Iranians on | :28:33. | :28:37. | |
the ground, they are helping them with the terrible obscene murder, | :28:37. | :28:42. | |
rape, torture that is going on. And so, it is not a fair fight. It is a | :28:42. | :28:47. | |
fight. What we need to do is give them weaponry, and by the way, we | :28:47. | :28:52. | |
can find ways to get the weapons to them, I met with two military | :28:52. | :29:02. | |
:29:02. | :29:03. | ||
leaders of the Free Syrian Army, right across the border from Syria | :29:03. | :29:10. | |
in tuarky. We can get them that -- Turkey, we can get them the | :29:10. | :29:15. | |
equipment and can help with medical care. The Turkish are talking about | :29:15. | :29:19. | |
a sanctuary for the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian National | :29:19. | :29:25. | |
Council, so they can organise, so they can come together, and they | :29:25. | :29:30. | |
can resist in a co-ordinated fashion. That would be a sanctuary | :29:31. | :29:37. | |
within Syria? Not necessarily. I think it could be a sanctuary | :29:37. | :29:42. | |
across the borders of one of the neighbouring countries. | :29:42. | :29:51. | |
Would you be in favour of western forces protecting that sanctuary? | :29:51. | :29:57. | |
Yes I would. I know that many people are watching now saying we | :29:57. | :30:01. | |
don't know who they are, we don't know how to do it, that this is a | :30:01. | :30:05. | |
very difficult situation, Americans are war-weary, I have heard all of | :30:05. | :30:11. | |
those arguments, I heard them with Libya and Bosnia, and Kosovo. But | :30:11. | :30:18. | |
the fundamental belief that we share is that Governments should | :30:18. | :30:22. | |
not be allowed to massacre their own people. If we can do something | :30:22. | :30:29. | |
about it. There is plenty to do about it. As I said, it is an | :30:29. | :30:32. | |
unfair fight. How long do you expect the ceasefire to last, | :30:32. | :30:40. | |
briefly? Maybe 15-minutes. Because the people will take to the streets | :30:40. | :30:44. | |
again, and peacefully demonstrate, and Bashar al-Assad cannot tolerate | :30:44. | :30:51. | |
that. Already they have imposed conditions which are clearly | :30:51. | :30:56. | |
unacceptable. Mr Annan, I think, is dwelling in a different parallel | :30:56. | :31:01. | |
universe, when he says that he's worried about the militarisation of | :31:01. | :31:04. | |
the conflict. Thank you very much indeed, thank | :31:04. | :31:08. | |
you. They were the boast of the United | :31:08. | :31:13. | |
Nations, enthusiastically embraced as a mission for Governments the | :31:13. | :31:17. | |
world over, and providing the Department of Development in this | :31:17. | :31:22. | |
country a reason to exist. They are the Millennium Development Goals, | :31:22. | :31:27. | |
the agreement of 200 countries, that they would mark the end of the | :31:27. | :31:32. | |
century by ending extreme poverty, and improving women's rights. | :31:32. | :31:36. | |
Nobody questioned the noblity of the aim. But Newsnight has learned | :31:36. | :31:40. | |
that David Cameron has been asked to redraft those goals. | :31:40. | :31:44. | |
What's going on? He will redraft them. It will be nonsensical if the | :31:44. | :31:48. | |
UK did it on its own, given the nature of the goals. I have been | :31:48. | :31:51. | |
told it is highly likely a country like Brazil will co-chair it, there | :31:51. | :31:55. | |
may be others, it is certainly the UK at the moment. It will be | :31:55. | :31:59. | |
announced next week, it is within the gift of the UN, and we can't | :31:59. | :32:03. | |
just take it ourselves. In the words of the cabinet minister for | :32:03. | :32:06. | |
international development, the UK is a development superpower, it is | :32:06. | :32:09. | |
what we do. We do a lot of these around. We don't always get it | :32:09. | :32:13. | |
right, we are trusted with technical projects, it is seen that | :32:13. | :32:17. | |
we understand what we are doing, that is why we are being given a | :32:17. | :32:21. | |
role in drafting new versions. is going to happen to the goals? | :32:21. | :32:25. | |
the moment, if you look at them, there is one to reduce infant | :32:25. | :32:29. | |
mortality, an aim for primary education, but not secondary. | :32:30. | :32:37. | |
Decrease malaria within countries. People say these are sword of | :32:37. | :32:38. | |
secondary issues, incredibly important -- sort of secondary | :32:38. | :32:41. | |
issues, incredibly important, but not the way to improve the | :32:41. | :32:45. | |
situation of a country. As an NGO you go into a country and sort that | :32:45. | :32:48. | |
out, but not as a national leader within that country do that sort of | :32:48. | :32:51. | |
things necessarily on your own. What they are trying to do is push | :32:51. | :32:55. | |
for economic development to be at the heart of these new goals. For | :32:55. | :32:59. | |
instance, it is long argued that you should have property rights as | :33:00. | :33:03. | |
one of the ambitions, so you actually have people with assets | :33:03. | :33:08. | |
who can develop on their own within a country, and things like primary | :33:08. | :33:10. | |
and secondary education flowing from it. That is what the | :33:10. | :33:12. | |
Government thinks. What do you think it will look like if the | :33:12. | :33:17. | |
Government gets their way? Some of them we see today will go, some are | :33:17. | :33:21. | |
meaningless. There will be the property rights, an emphasis on | :33:21. | :33:24. | |
reducing trade barriers within continents like Africa. There might | :33:25. | :33:28. | |
be an assertion of job creation and wealth creation, this is much more | :33:28. | :33:32. | |
in terms it of all those boats being lifted by rising tides, that | :33:32. | :33:36. | |
old proverb. That is not liked by many people. Also, really critical, | :33:36. | :33:39. | |
there will be, and bear in mind this is the beginning of a | :33:39. | :33:42. | |
consultation process, that everyone will kick off on. There might be | :33:42. | :33:46. | |
some emphasis on conditionality. The idea at the moment these goals | :33:46. | :33:48. | |
are meaningless, because people have to do them rather than aid | :33:49. | :33:53. | |
being linked to it, maybe that should change in the future, as | :33:53. | :33:57. | |
what People of Freedom in Government do think. The shadow of | :33:57. | :34:00. | |
the -- People in Government do think. | :34:00. | :34:05. | |
In France each of those want to go win the presidency, darkly warned | :34:05. | :34:09. | |
the French people of what might happen if they return the wrong | :34:09. | :34:14. | |
conclusion to return the men in built-up heels. President Sarkozy | :34:14. | :34:20. | |
has rained over the loss of the trip all A rating, his opposition | :34:20. | :34:30. | |
:34:30. | :34:32. | ||
say they can return that. How will Sarkozy try to save his presidency? | :34:32. | :34:36. | |
A few hours east of Paris, deep in rural France, there is a shrine, to | :34:36. | :34:42. | |
a man and his ideology. General Charles de Gaulle lived and | :34:43. | :34:47. | |
died here, leaving behind a powerful idea of France. | :34:47. | :34:51. | |
His views on how the country should be run are still so influential | :34:51. | :34:56. | |
that, apparently, his heir as leader of the Gaullist movement, | :34:56. | :35:03. | |
comes here to commune with his spirit. TRANSLATION: President | :35:03. | :35:08. | |
Sarkozy often comes alone to this place, it is for him, as it was for | :35:08. | :35:13. | |
General de Gaulle, an ideal place for reflection. Learning about de | :35:13. | :35:18. | |
Gaulle is part of the syllabus for French schools. To these children, | :35:18. | :35:23. | |
he was a war leader, who embodied national unity. | :35:23. | :35:27. | |
Later, they learn about how he put France on the European and world | :35:27. | :35:35. | |
stage, as well as fostering a welfare state. Today, Nicolas | :35:35. | :35:41. | |
Sarkozy, cites de Gaulle often, but is that anything more than here | :35:41. | :35:45. | |
lip-service. At the start of his foof-year term, he seemed determine | :35:45. | :35:50. | |
to -- five-year term, he seemed determine a new politics, | :35:50. | :35:56. | |
determined to shake up the state in his presidency. The way he started | :35:56. | :36:01. | |
as President was childish, he gave the impression was playing with | :36:01. | :36:06. | |
power, and Nicolas Sarkozy almost never envokes the greatness of | :36:06. | :36:15. | |
France. La grandeur, like de Gaulle says, | :36:15. | :36:21. | |
it is not in his project. Nevertheless, he certainly | :36:21. | :36:26. | |
considers Germany and France as the leaders, the legitimate leaders of | :36:26. | :36:36. | |
Europe. President de Gaulle had a very | :36:36. | :36:39. | |
well-defined idea of what France should represent, and of its place | :36:39. | :36:43. | |
at the head of the nations of Europe. But today, as the country | :36:43. | :36:48. | |
heads for presidential elections, its national self-confidence has | :36:48. | :36:56. | |
been bat bird the economic crisis. And the standard bearer of Gaullism, | :36:56. | :36:59. | |
President Sarkozy, is accused of losing his way, and not knowing | :36:59. | :37:08. | |
what on earth he stands for. Sarkozy Askam pain styles are a | :37:08. | :37:14. | |
world away from -- Sarkozy's campaign styles are a world away | :37:14. | :37:19. | |
from the country ways, and General de Gaulle. Most French people want | :37:19. | :37:23. | |
to protect their own lifestyle, the President is behind in the polls. | :37:23. | :37:28. | |
His position is hardly helped by the message that gaining economic | :37:28. | :37:35. | |
vitally will require them to adopt foreign models. In Europe there is | :37:35. | :37:40. | |
two models. The Swedish model and German model, cutting spending and | :37:40. | :37:44. | |
reforming our economy, so it will be more competitive. That is, of | :37:44. | :37:48. | |
course, a German or Sweden model. There is another model, it has | :37:48. | :37:53. | |
become the Greek model, it is a model where you choose to make even | :37:53. | :38:00. | |
more spending during the following years, and making more spending, | :38:00. | :38:05. | |
you raise taxes to, I don't know, rocketing level. And this is not | :38:05. | :38:11. | |
the good model. President Sarkozy started this | :38:11. | :38:17. | |
contest far behind in the polls. So he unleashed a series of messages | :38:17. | :38:21. | |
about security, immigration, and identity, that were designed to | :38:21. | :38:26. | |
bring him support from the far right. But in the process he has | :38:26. | :38:30. | |
alienated many in the centre and on the left, who say he's ignoring the | :38:30. | :38:34. | |
real issues people say they care about in polls, as well as | :38:34. | :38:40. | |
discarding the Gaullist tradition of national unity. | :38:40. | :38:47. | |
We are social and democratic people. Gaullist and communist agree about | :38:47. | :38:55. | |
that, de Gaulle says, at this time, we don't discriminate people from | :38:56. | :39:02. | |
origin, race and religion. Sarkozy, it is the end of Gaullism. It is | :39:02. | :39:10. | |
the death of all this tradition in the right in France. | :39:10. | :39:14. | |
Even so, Socialist Party leader, Francois Hollande, is still set to | :39:14. | :39:19. | |
beat Sarkozy in any run-off. He's a sort of Ed Milliband, in wonkiness, | :39:19. | :39:25. | |
only the polls suggest Hollande is a winner. He promises to keep the | :39:25. | :39:29. | |
French model welfare state alive, even if it means renegotiating the | :39:29. | :39:36. | |
European austerity deal that Sarkozy signed up to in December. | :39:36. | :39:40. | |
Monsieur Hollande's supporters suggest that would not bring | :39:40. | :39:45. | |
disaster. If he's elected, far from being certain, I'm sure the first | :39:45. | :39:50. | |
thing he will do is ask for a report on the real situation of the | :39:50. | :39:54. | |
French finances. And act accordingly. I will advice him to | :39:54. | :39:58. | |
do it so, the only -- advise him to do it so, the only way not to bear | :39:58. | :40:02. | |
the burden of the cuts will be to do it immediately, just after the | :40:02. | :40:07. | |
election. I'm sure he will do it. I'm sure, by the way, that Sarkozy | :40:07. | :40:11. | |
will do it also. Further to the left of Hollande, this man seeks to | :40:11. | :40:16. | |
protect the French social model with the same steely determination, | :40:16. | :40:22. | |
at which he coraled the press at his policy launch. | :40:22. | :40:26. | |
Jean-Luc Melenchon represents the left front. He's against the | :40:26. | :40:33. | |
Americans, NATO, the markets and the EU. TRANSLATION: Of course it | :40:33. | :40:36. | |
is complicated, and I don't hide from you that when it was present | :40:36. | :40:43. | |
today me, I felt it contains a vision I like to call Jacobean, it | :40:43. | :40:48. | |
is not an insult but honour to be called that. It is extraordinary | :40:48. | :40:52. | |
after two hours of listening to Mr Melenchon how extensively his ideas | :40:52. | :40:58. | |
about what France should stand for, are informed by ideas of | :40:58. | :41:02. | |
exceptionalism. France's unique place in the world, that really go | :41:02. | :41:05. | |
back to General de Gaulle, and a certain type of nationalism, which | :41:05. | :41:10. | |
I don't think many of us would expect to see on what formally | :41:10. | :41:14. | |
would have been -- formerly would have been called the far left. His | :41:14. | :41:18. | |
rejection of austerity, has contributed to a steady rise in the | :41:18. | :41:22. | |
polls. TRANSLATION: Austerity is a | :41:23. | :41:28. | |
strategy of international finance that is shared by French liberals, | :41:28. | :41:32. | |
we say the Anglo-Saxons like facts. The fact is austerity will release | :41:32. | :41:36. | |
a recession in all of Europe, which will lead us into a disaster, by | :41:37. | :41:39. | |
keeping down the salaries of the working-class and maximising | :41:39. | :41:49. | |
:41:49. | :41:50. | ||
profits. The critque of President Sarkozy extends to his probity too. | :41:50. | :41:55. | |
At Mediapart, an on-line newspaper, they have accused the President of | :41:55. | :41:58. | |
taking contributions from Libya and big business during his 2007 | :41:58. | :42:03. | |
campaign. At the morning meeting, they follow | :42:03. | :42:07. | |
this contest, arguing that Sarkozy has to win to stay ahead of the | :42:07. | :42:14. | |
investigators. You know, in France, the President | :42:14. | :42:23. | |
has traditional immunity, if he loses, all of it must come, the | :42:23. | :42:30. | |
cabinet and I must ask some questions. Because all the figures | :42:30. | :42:39. | |
are very surprising. It is not small money. It is millions. Many | :42:39. | :42:44. | |
millions of euros. The murders in Toulouse were seen | :42:45. | :42:51. | |
by some as a game changer. In his role as President, he attended | :42:51. | :42:55. | |
memorial events, and articulated the nation's outrage. He also | :42:55. | :42:58. | |
played -- it also played into Sarkozy's security agenda, allowed | :42:58. | :43:02. | |
him to rise above the funding allegations, he denies them any way, | :43:02. | :43:07. | |
and final low demonstrate the maturity of his years in the top | :43:07. | :43:14. | |
job. Everybody was standing still behind the President to say, we are | :43:14. | :43:19. | |
all French, and this is the French people, and we will resist violence, | :43:19. | :43:22. | |
we will resist hatred, that was the message of the President, and he | :43:22. | :43:27. | |
was really the President of all the French people. You can observe an | :43:27. | :43:34. | |
important change. The first year of his presidency was very agitated, | :43:34. | :43:41. | |
and he was exposing his personal life and in fact, this agitation | :43:41. | :43:51. | |
:43:51. | :43:52. | ||
has largely stopped. At his campaign rallies, this one | :43:52. | :43:57. | |
for the party youth movement, President Sarkozy emphasises | :43:57. | :44:07. | |
:44:07. | :44:10. | ||
experience, and competence. If these people loved it, the | :44:10. | :44:16. | |
public is more skept quell. So the negative -- sceptical, so the | :44:16. | :44:20. | |
negative campaign tactics extend to suggesting the front runner, | :44:20. | :44:24. | |
Francois Hollande, could destroy international economic confidence | :44:24. | :44:34. | |
:44:34. | :44:34. | ||
in France. Francois Hollande has a problem, for me, of credibility. On | :44:34. | :44:39. | |
financial issues, deficit issues, and international issues. | :44:39. | :44:43. | |
But what of Sarkozy himself? And his many presidential significant | :44:43. | :44:49. | |
zags on policy? REPORTER: A moment for the BBC? | :44:49. | :44:54. | |
The critics argue that he's an opportunist who lacks an ideolgical | :44:54. | :44:59. | |
core, goalist or otherwise. Nicolas Sarkozy is a very close friend of | :44:59. | :45:04. | |
mine for 30 years, and I like him very much as a friend. He's one of | :45:04. | :45:11. | |
the most amazing friends you may have in life. But I must say the | :45:11. | :45:16. | |
core belief is not his cup of tea. That's all I can say. If I may add | :45:16. | :45:24. | |
something, I would say he's a lawyer. What is a lawyer? Someone | :45:24. | :45:28. | |
who can...Argue Any position? In this election the public seems | :45:28. | :45:34. | |
to be rallying behind those who say they will protect the Gaullist idea | :45:34. | :45:38. | |
of France. Nicolas Sarkozy, on the other hand, has used the language | :45:39. | :45:48. | |
of austerity, and that's made him distinctly suspect to many voters. | :45:48. | :45:58. | |
:45:58. | :46:22. | ||
That's quite enough excitement for Sun yie for some, wet for others, | :46:22. | :46:26. | |
it -- sunny for some, wet for others, it depend where you live. | :46:26. | :46:30. | |
Huge variations in the weather on Thursday as for Wednesday. It looks | :46:30. | :46:34. | |
as if the more central and eastern parts of England in particular will | :46:34. | :46:40. | |
catch the heaviest of the downpours, thunder, lightning and hail. Slow | :46:40. | :46:44. | |
moving too, one or two places will avoid the worst of those showers, | :46:44. | :46:50. | |
if I was to stick my neck out, parts of western England will fare | :46:50. | :46:54. | |
better. Parts of sunny Devon and Cornwall seeing a largely bright | :46:54. | :46:59. | |
afternoon. Not helping the temperatures, 10-11 at best. When | :46:59. | :47:05. | |
the showers come along, they will be distinctly cold. For Northern | :47:05. | :47:09. | |
Ireland avoiding showers, cool in the breeze, that will be the | :47:09. | :47:13. | |
message for Scotland as well. Sunshine for the western Highlands, | :47:13. | :47:18. | |
cold, and breezy across the far north-east. Things getting colder. | :47:18. | :47:23. | |
Day by day, again, a mixture of sunshine and showers, difficult to | :47:23. | :47:30. | |
pinpoint who will fare best. Cater for a shower or two, and you won't | :47:30. | :47:34. | |
be desapoifrpbted. Showers -- disappointed. Showers turning | :47:34. | :47:37. |