11/04/2012 Newsnight


11/04/2012

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Jeremy Paxman.


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On tonight's programme, will Spain be the straw that breaks the back

:00:13.:00:17.

of the euro? Titanic power struggles at the very

:00:17.:00:21.

top in China. We talk to senator John McCain on

:00:21.:00:25.

how to stop Bashar al-Assad murdering his citizens. And our

:00:25.:00:27.

political editor learns that David Cameron has been asked by the

:00:27.:00:32.

United Nationss to rewrite the Millennium Development Goals.

:00:32.:00:36.

As elections loom, the President of France fights for his political

:00:36.:00:43.

life, what can he honestly claim as a core conviction?

:00:43.:00:48.

He is one of the most amazing friends you may have in life. But I

:00:48.:00:58.
:00:58.:01:00.

must say the core belief is not his cup of tea.

:01:00.:01:06.

In all the hoo ha about pasties and petrol, and how good it is for the

:01:06.:01:10.

rich in Britain, we have taken our eye off the crisis in Euroland, it

:01:10.:01:17.

hasn't gone away. It rather resembles Jesus' description of the

:01:17.:01:22.

poor, always with us. Spain is far bigger deal than Greece and the

:01:22.:01:24.

financial markets are plainly unconvinced by what the Government

:01:25.:01:30.

says it will do to sort out its massive debts. We will speak with

:01:30.:01:36.

the Spanish Ambassador, but first, we have this report.

:01:36.:01:41.

Greece may have monopolised the headlines in the crisis so far, but

:01:41.:01:45.

Spain is now a genuine concern. Its economy is huge and it is in free

:01:45.:01:48.

fall. Unemployment is the highest in the developed world, industrial

:01:48.:01:52.

output is fall, and austerity almost as draconian as Greece, is

:01:52.:01:59.

on its way. And the Prime Minister, jog jog jog,

:01:59.:02:08.

after admitting Spain -- -- today lashed out at his EU neighbours,

:02:08.:02:13.

particularly Italy, for stoking up market fears. TRANSLATION: I wish

:02:13.:02:18.

to say the following with regard to some statements made in the EU,

:02:18.:02:22.

more explicitly last night by some EU leaders. We hope they assume

:02:22.:02:25.

their responsibilities and are much more cautious in their statements.

:02:25.:02:29.

We don't talk about other countries, we wish other EU and eurozone

:02:29.:02:38.

countries the best. What is good for Spain is good for the eurozone.

:02:38.:02:43.

He and his centre right party were elected over four months ago with a

:02:43.:02:47.

resounding majority, much of that was due to the intense dislike of

:02:47.:02:53.

the outgoing socialist, that a ground dwell in favour of the

:02:53.:03:02.

slightly dour Rajoy. None of them will accuse him of sugar coating

:03:02.:03:06.

the austerity pill. Is he burning through his political capital as he

:03:06.:03:11.

tries to right the Spanish ship? He's coming short of delivering the

:03:11.:03:15.

goods by what we have seen so far. It is clear with the market

:03:15.:03:19.

turbulence in the last few days, that the markets think it is not

:03:19.:03:23.

enough. Spain has serious problems, both in the banking sector and the

:03:23.:03:26.

public sector finances. Both balance sheets of the banking

:03:26.:03:30.

sector and the public sector are hard to disentangle, as a result we

:03:30.:03:33.

have a crisis of confidence in the ability of Spain to restore growth,

:03:33.:03:40.

and so we are in trouble. Like Ireland, Spain's problem was a

:03:41.:03:43.

massive property bubble that burst, that collapse has dragged the

:03:43.:03:47.

national Government down with it. Unlike Ireland, Spain has yet to

:03:47.:03:51.

bite the bullet on wholesale reform of its banks. Especially its

:03:51.:03:56.

regional savings banks. The problem with the Spanish debt

:03:56.:04:00.

mountain is it is more akin to the iceberg, what you see on the

:04:00.:04:02.

surface is the money owed by the national Government, and doesn't

:04:02.:04:06.

include the money borrowed, from places like the City of London, by

:04:06.:04:12.

regional parliaments and Governments. The debt to GDP ratio

:04:12.:04:18.

for the federal Government is GDP, the figure for Catalonia is closer

:04:18.:04:22.

to 120%, that is a problem that needs solving soon. Recognition of

:04:22.:04:26.

the indebtedness of the regions in Spain is a major problem that

:04:26.:04:29.

probably hasn't been fully discounted into the financial

:04:29.:04:33.

markets at this stage. I think the market is going to come to an

:04:33.:04:39.

estimate for all of Spain bailout on a regional level. That could be

:04:39.:04:43.

the straw that breaks the camel's back in terms of the need for

:04:43.:04:47.

European public financing. Spain disappeared off our eurozone

:04:47.:04:55.

radars for a few months, because the market were stewfied by cheap

:04:55.:04:59.

EC money. The benchmark cost of borrowing for Spain had been rising

:04:59.:05:02.

steadily until last November, before falling dramatically when

:05:02.:05:06.

the first wave of cheap loans were offered. The process was repeated

:05:06.:05:09.

at the end of February, that pushed down yields. Now it looks like the

:05:10.:05:14.

drug is wearing off, and Spain might soon be doing very cold

:05:14.:05:18.

turkey, making the possibility of a bailout very real. Does the

:05:18.:05:23.

eurozone even have the money to bail out its fourth-largest member.

:05:23.:05:27.

If it happens in the next few months, I think the Europeans will

:05:27.:05:31.

be approaching it on a piecemeal level. They will be addressing the

:05:31.:05:39.

specifics of say the Cajas, or the regions, as long as it is done on a

:05:39.:05:42.

step-by-step basis, there is ample funding now. If you were look, say,

:05:42.:05:47.

and had a time machine, and were to look backwards at the all-inclusive

:05:47.:05:52.

costs of the bailout, what it ultimately might cost for the

:05:52.:05:54.

Europeans, you probably wouldn't have that amount of funding

:05:54.:05:59.

available at this stage. But while Brussels and Berlin check

:05:59.:06:03.

their wallets, they will, no doubt, be asking whether the Spanish

:06:03.:06:07.

populus has the stomach for the drop in living standards demanded.

:06:07.:06:12.

It will be difficult in Spain, especially because any cuts in

:06:12.:06:17.

health and education will hit with the regional Governments and that

:06:17.:06:23.

will create a lot of anger and intense sentiment. We are already

:06:23.:06:29.

seeing the regions claiming their territory, and saying they will not

:06:29.:06:34.

take those cuts. It is going to be much harder than in a smaller and

:06:34.:06:38.

more centralised country like Greece or Portugal.

:06:38.:06:45.

If you were to take a glass half full attitude, you might say that

:06:45.:06:50.

Mr Rajoy's comments of late are a political ruse to soften up the

:06:50.:06:56.

Spanish public. If your glass is half empty, you could view the

:06:56.:07:00.

recent events in Spain as a restarting of the European crisis

:07:00.:07:05.

and one that could have far worse impact for the rest of us. Here to

:07:05.:07:09.

talk about Spain's financial turmoil is the spannic ambassador

:07:09.:07:13.

to the UK. This assurance that your economics minutes -- Spanish

:07:13.:07:15.

Ambassador to the UK. This assurance that your economics

:07:15.:07:20.

minister has given, that there is no need for a rescue at this time,

:07:20.:07:25.

how long is that valid for? I hope forever. But there is no guarantee,

:07:25.:07:31.

is there? There is no guarantee of anything. We know that the eurozone

:07:31.:07:38.

is undergoing a difficult situation, we know that Spain has a fragile

:07:38.:07:44.

economy, but Spain is doing all it takes, and is prepared to do all it

:07:44.:07:50.

takes to avoid a rescue and bailout. There has been a pattern of finance

:07:50.:07:53.

ministers, or prime ministers, saying we do not envisage any need

:07:53.:07:58.

for a rescue, and then the rest cue, of course, happens. It happened --

:07:58.:08:02.

rescue, of course, happens. It happened in Portugal and Greece,

:08:02.:08:05.

and in Ireland, two days after the Prime Minister said there was no

:08:05.:08:09.

need for it. The Finance Minister has to deny. But in our case, let's

:08:09.:08:19.
:08:19.:08:21.

see, we have no big auction, no big bond auctions coming up now. More

:08:21.:08:25.

or less we have the impression it will be fully subscribed, and then

:08:25.:08:32.

the next time is in July. Our situation is difficult, we are

:08:32.:08:37.

struggling, it is not, the Spanish economy is not the only one in

:08:37.:08:42.

Europe that is struggling. But, the Government is taking all the

:08:43.:08:50.

measures that we think are needed to ensure first that no bailout is

:08:50.:08:54.

necessary, and second, to pave the way for economic growth in the near

:08:54.:08:58.

future. We know that we are going to contract, our economy is going

:08:58.:09:02.

to contract. We will come to growth in a minute

:09:02.:09:06.

or two, there is a really big problem here, isn't there? How much

:09:06.:09:12.

of public spending is actually controlled by central Government?

:09:12.:09:21.

Much more than is thought here, central Government controls about

:09:21.:09:25.

70 %. That means there is 30% or more that is not under the control

:09:25.:09:31.

of central Government, and is...Well, But regional Governments

:09:31.:09:36.

are under the control of some of the big parties, and both of them

:09:36.:09:42.

are committed. No, there is no doubt, there is full commitment by

:09:42.:09:46.

all, both the central Government, and the regional Government. Is it

:09:46.:09:49.

not the case when Catalonia, for example, was asked to reduce its

:09:49.:09:55.

budget deficit to 1.3%, it said it can't do that and it will go to

:09:55.:10:01.

2.6%, and came in at 3.7%? Perhaps not that much. But Catalonia has

:10:01.:10:08.

taken huge measure, and will continue to take huge measures. In

:10:08.:10:12.

Catalonia the Government has taken measures concerning the health

:10:12.:10:18.

system, public servants' pay, and they are prepared to take those

:10:18.:10:21.

measures. Let's look at the question of growth, then, you say

:10:21.:10:26.

that will be the solution, half of young people in Spain under the age

:10:26.:10:29.

of 25 are unemployed, aren't they, how do you get growth when you have

:10:29.:10:36.

that sort of problem? A huge problem we have. Unemployment.

:10:36.:10:40.

Perhaps our biggest problem. Depending on the way you look at it,

:10:40.:10:44.

the problem is not as big as it looks. Yes, if you take, for

:10:45.:10:52.

instance, a number of hours actually worked in the economy, if

:10:52.:10:57.

you take the percentage of the total possible hours worked, in

:10:57.:11:04.

Germany, for instance, you will see that out of the total number of

:11:04.:11:11.

hours that all people between 15-65 could work, they work 52% of the

:11:11.:11:20.

hours. In France 46%, in Spain 48%. So we have a huge problem, because

:11:20.:11:26.

our labour laws don't allow for part-time jobs, things like this.

:11:26.:11:31.

But the Government has taken both measures to correct this.

:11:31.:11:36.

Thank you very much. Now, as mysteries go, it takes some

:11:36.:11:41.

beating, a charismatic political lead e tipped as a future leader of

:11:41.:11:44.

the most populus nation on earth is sacked, his wife accused of

:11:44.:11:50.

involvement in the mysterious death of an Englishman. The Chinese state

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media did what they were told and justified the removal of the rising

:11:55.:12:03.

star, Mr. Something very unusual has happened, it is not easy to

:12:03.:12:13.
:12:13.:12:16.

find out the details of what and why. In this ancient Chinese game,

:12:16.:12:21.

the object is to surround your opponent, to make his next move

:12:21.:12:26.

impossible and eliminate him. Now, amid allegations of murder, it

:12:26.:12:34.

looks like China's leaders are playing the game for real.

:12:34.:12:40.

Chongqing, a city of 30 million, ruled until now, by one man.

:12:40.:12:50.
:12:50.:12:52.

Capitol Hill Capitol Hill Capitol Hill, rose through - Bo Xilai rose

:12:52.:12:58.

through the ranks and taught people to sing revolutionary songs. He's

:12:58.:13:02.

an unusual politician in China. If China were a democracy, Bo Xilai

:13:02.:13:05.

would probably stand a very good chance of being elected. He can

:13:06.:13:10.

connect with people. He cracked down hard on organised crime, he

:13:10.:13:18.

appealed in a sort of populist way to Maoist traditional feelings in

:13:19.:13:22.

China. This year, with an imminent change

:13:22.:13:30.

in the party leadership, Bo looked set to win a place within the inner

:13:30.:13:40.
:13:40.:13:40.

core of the Politburo. Now he would be lucky to avoid criminal charges.

:13:40.:13:47.

China's leaders are halved between the Communist Party and those who

:13:47.:13:50.

are rhetorical, left-wing, hardliners, a game actually played

:13:50.:13:55.

out. Bo threatened to play it out in public, and with mass

:13:55.:14:01.

participation. But somebody, somewhere, made a fatal false move.

:14:01.:14:04.

Last November, Neil Heywood, a British businessman and friend of

:14:04.:14:09.

Bo Xilai, was found dead in a hotel in Chongqing, the authorities

:14:09.:14:13.

claimed it was alcohol poisoning, his body was cremated without

:14:13.:14:21.

autopsy. Then, in February, this man, Wang

:14:21.:14:27.

Lijun, Bo security chief, entered a US kol sul late building to claim

:14:27.:14:34.

political asylum. He claimed he was investigating the death and had

:14:34.:14:40.

discovered evidence that angered Bo and feared for his life. After the

:14:40.:14:48.

Chinese premier criticised Bo, he was striped of his title, and his

:14:48.:14:52.

wife named as the chief suspect in the murder. Others are convinced

:14:52.:14:57.

there is a bigger story. This is not a murder case, even though

:14:57.:15:00.

somebody might or might not have been murdered, we don't know if Mr

:15:01.:15:05.

Heywood was murdered. The whole thing is largely political, it

:15:05.:15:12.

started with Mr Bo's top Lieutenant going to the US consulate to seek

:15:12.:15:16.

political asylum, which would then make him a traitor, and therefore

:15:16.:15:21.

provide the opportunity for Mr Bo's enemies in the top leadership to

:15:21.:15:28.

strike him down. When Mr Bo lost his job, as the party secretary in

:15:28.:15:31.

Chongqing. The British Government, which has been pressing for an

:15:31.:15:35.

investigation into Neil Heywood's death, welcomed the move. On the

:15:35.:15:39.

case of Neil Heywood, we did ask the Chinese to hold an

:15:39.:15:43.

investigation, and we are pleased that they are now doing that. And

:15:43.:15:47.

we stand ready to co-operate in any way we can. I think it is important

:15:47.:15:51.

we get to the truth about what happened in this very disturbing

:15:51.:15:56.

case, very tragic case. But where does this leave the west's wider

:15:56.:16:00.

relationship with China. This man spend 30 years at the Foreign

:16:00.:16:05.

Office covering the country. Do you think the west gives credence to

:16:05.:16:11.

the essential story? In a sense you have to. Because the mind boggles

:16:11.:16:16.

at anything else. But there are huge gaps in that story, quite why

:16:16.:16:22.

people acted as they did, quite what the falling out was over. Why

:16:22.:16:28.

someone as powerful as Bo Xilai's wife, let alone himself, should

:16:28.:16:34.

feel it necessary to have this really unfortunate businessman,

:16:34.:16:36.

Neil Heywood, murdered, it is extraordinary, what can drive

:16:36.:16:39.

someone to do that. And to expect that they can get away with it,

:16:39.:16:45.

that is the sort of arrogance of power, that is one of the worries I

:16:45.:16:49.

think that the Chinese Communist Party have. If these people can

:16:49.:16:52.

behave like that to a foreigner, how on earth are they behave to go

:16:52.:16:57.

the people of China. When you meet Chinese officials, they will

:16:57.:17:01.

sometimes speak quietly about this division within the party. They

:17:01.:17:04.

assume the power blocks could co- exist together, and all

:17:04.:17:08.

transsignificants of power at the top would be orderly and negotiate

:17:08.:17:11.

-- transitions of power at the top would be orderly and negotiated.

:17:11.:17:15.

The strange case of Bo Xilai, to put it mildly, complicates things.

:17:15.:17:21.

What we are, in fact, seeing, is the kind of old fashioned court

:17:21.:17:27.

politics, that would one perhaps have seen in the European court,

:17:27.:17:33.

400 or 500 years ago. We are not seeing China moving in the

:17:33.:17:35.

direction of institutionalisation of its politics, that everybody

:17:35.:17:43.

would like to see. The events in Chongqing remain like

:17:43.:17:48.

the city, shrouded in fog. What is clear is for the first time since

:17:48.:17:52.

1989, there is a split in the leadership. And how the game ends

:17:52.:17:58.

is unpredictable. With us to discuss the many

:17:58.:18:04.

mysteries of the story are Martin Jakes, author of When China Rules

:18:04.:18:10.

the world, Dr Linda Lui, and the professor of international politics

:18:10.:18:16.

at the University of Bristol. How significant an event is this?

:18:16.:18:20.

very important, because ever since Tiananmen Square, and when the

:18:20.:18:26.

general secretary was turfed out by Xaoping, there hasn't been anything

:18:26.:18:31.

like this at the highest level, nearly the highest level of Chinese

:18:31.:18:39.

politics. Bo Xilai is clearly meeting his political demise, but,

:18:39.:18:45.

the backdrop to all of this is a major struggle taking place in the

:18:45.:18:49.

Chinese leadership, over the leadership emerging from the party

:18:49.:18:52.

conference in autumn, and secondly, over the policies to be pursued by

:18:52.:18:57.

the new leadership. Do you see it in much the same terms as a power

:18:57.:19:01.

stringle? It definitely reflects the fact that the Communist Party

:19:01.:19:04.

within itself has had a number of factions. It is just the glimpse we

:19:04.:19:09.

are getting, that is interesting. Is it ideolgical, or just about

:19:09.:19:16.

naked power? Well, if I had to venture a punt on that, I would say

:19:16.:19:19.

naked power. Bo Xilai was associated with a lot more moves

:19:19.:19:23.

towards a state-led, investment model. He was popular, in the sense

:19:23.:19:31.

that he was talking about a -- an era of equality which a lot of

:19:31.:19:34.

Chinese people like because of the inequality. If you strip it back,

:19:34.:19:39.

he was clearly somebody who was a rising star. But the last time I

:19:39.:19:45.

was in China, that most policy makers knew who the next generation

:19:45.:19:51.

of leaders would be, he was josling for position. Do you think we will

:19:51.:19:55.

see -- Josling for position. Do you think we will see more? This is not

:19:55.:19:58.

the end of the scandal of this event that we are looking at now.

:19:58.:20:03.

What is interesting, of course, is this drama, attached today this,

:20:03.:20:09.

partly because of this murder case, and also the defection of the

:20:09.:20:13.

police chief, again and also involving a murder of a foreign

:20:13.:20:22.

national, which is a British businessman. All we see when we see

:20:22.:20:28.

the Chinese leadership s late middleaged men, in identical suits,

:20:28.:20:34.

using identical hair dye. It opens up something fascinating. They are

:20:34.:20:43.

not middleaged, they are all in their 60s. This is part of the

:20:43.:20:50.

political transition we are looking at. It is certainly not, as has

:20:50.:20:57.

been comment, this is not what we have anticipated. We all thought at

:20:57.:21:02.

some stage that the political axe sgs in China was happening, and --

:21:02.:21:07.

accession in China was happening, and this fourth or fifth generation

:21:07.:21:10.

transition would be smooth, now we don't know what is next. It is

:21:10.:21:13.

taking place in a completely changed world, which people are

:21:14.:21:18.

tweeting and communicating, social media and all the rest. It is

:21:18.:21:21.

fascinating. One thing that is very interesting, is the extent to which

:21:21.:21:26.

this has become public, and it is being discussed and known about in

:21:26.:21:31.

real time, as opposed to way after the event, which used to be much

:21:31.:21:35.

more the case. What is this a result of? It is the result of the

:21:35.:21:41.

opening up of Chinese society, internet, microblogs, a less

:21:41.:21:46.

sensored media, and so on. Now -- censored media, and so on. Now the

:21:47.:21:51.

Chinese have more access to the key debates. This is a big problem for

:21:51.:21:54.

the leadership, if people know about it? Yes, I think one of the

:21:54.:21:59.

issues here is they are going to have to get used to T increasing

:21:59.:22:03.

transparency is -- to it, increasing transparency is

:22:03.:22:08.

something they can't return the clock back on. It is such high

:22:08.:22:11.

publicity, involving a foreigner, and there will be more instances

:22:11.:22:15.

where China will have to become more open about the kinds of issues

:22:15.:22:20.

that this case poses, corruption, succession, responsiveness,

:22:20.:22:25.

ideology, development, these are all things, as they become more

:22:25.:22:28.

globally integrated, foreign investors, foreigners dealing with

:22:28.:22:31.

China, will want to see more and they will have to respond to that.

:22:31.:22:35.

We will come to that in a minute or two. Do you know anything about how

:22:35.:22:41.

it is being seen seen within China? You have a whole spectrum of

:22:41.:22:47.

different opinions, obviously. You have some kind of supporters of Bo

:22:47.:22:50.

Xilai's policies, the policies for equal and social justice, that

:22:50.:22:57.

Linda has just commented on. Also you have the other spectrum, which

:22:57.:23:00.

obviously looks at his manoeuvring for leadership position. So you

:23:00.:23:07.

have a spectrum of, which is reflected in the microblock, and

:23:07.:23:14.

the comments. You have billions of people using, 250 people -- 250

:23:14.:23:18.

million people using that. Everybody is talking about Bo Xilai,

:23:18.:23:23.

and what led to his downfall, and what this tells them about Chinese

:23:23.:23:26.

politics. Then we have this intriguing element of this

:23:26.:23:32.

unfortunate man who died in China, the circumstances are very opaque.,

:23:32.:23:39.

given that the economy so much depends, upon, or has depended on

:23:39.:23:42.

western involvement, not perhaps the primary challenge now, what

:23:42.:23:47.

will it do to the way western businesses regard China? How they

:23:47.:23:52.

handle it will be crucially important. This does come on the

:23:52.:24:01.

back of the executive of Mr Hu, imprisoned in China a few years ago.

:24:01.:24:04.

The ability of the Chinese Government to continue to show,

:24:04.:24:08.

even if they are not an and democracy, but have increasingly

:24:08.:24:11.

improved rule of law and transparency of that process, will

:24:11.:24:15.

be crucial. If you look at what China needs now, I would say they

:24:16.:24:19.

need global integration, beau the reason they have grown so quickly

:24:19.:24:22.

is because they integrated and caught up on manufacturing, the

:24:22.:24:25.

next phase of growth requires doing the same thing on services. That

:24:25.:24:30.

means for moreeners, more engagment with the global market. I think one

:24:30.:24:33.

of the things that China has lagged behind on is reforming rule of law

:24:34.:24:39.

to catch up with the economic reforms. The fact that his wife has

:24:39.:24:47.

been arrested, is she going to get a fair trial. Is the arrest an

:24:47.:24:53.

indication of guilt, how does it work? Obviously they have very

:24:53.:24:58.

strong evidence, we could see from the report, even by the Chinese

:24:58.:25:03.

media, and from the police chief, you know, we don't really know what

:25:03.:25:10.

he has talked with the American consulate. From the reports from

:25:10.:25:13.

the Chinese media they already have some kind of evidence. This case

:25:13.:25:18.

will be cut niceed, not only by chine -- scrutinised, not only by

:25:18.:25:22.

the Chinese media, but globally. I would expect a rather fair trial of

:25:22.:25:27.

this particular case, at least. the outcome in doubt, the outcome

:25:27.:25:34.

of the trial? Why should it be in doubt. So the judiciary is

:25:34.:25:42.

independent? Well, I think they will present this as independent,

:25:42.:25:46.

as they possibly can. This has a lot to do with the image of China.

:25:46.:25:51.

How do you think the trial will go? I wouldn't be too optimistic,

:25:51.:25:56.

myself. But I think that if they have already arrested her, they

:25:56.:26:01.

have said she is being held by the judicial authorities, that is the

:26:01.:26:06.

phrase. I think that they have already, and what they have already

:26:06.:26:11.

put out about it, for the murder of Neil Heywood and so on. I think

:26:11.:26:17.

that it is going, she will be found guilty. And she may well be guilty,

:26:17.:26:25.

I think she will be found guilty. The Syrian Government, if you can

:26:25.:26:29.

believe them. Says its guns will fall silent at dawn tomorrow. The

:26:29.:26:33.

time specified for a ceasefire by the United Nations' representative

:26:33.:26:37.

in the region. The regime reserved the right, though, to resume

:26:37.:26:41.

killing its own citizens, if it faced any opposition. It didn't

:26:41.:26:45.

undertake to one of the requests to withdraw troops from built-up areas.

:26:45.:26:49.

Western countries wring their hands, unable to agree what to do, and

:26:49.:26:53.

knowing the Syrian regime has the support of Russia on the UN

:26:53.:26:58.

Security Council. Speaking tonight, Hillary Clinton, expressed unease

:26:58.:27:02.

about whether the ceasefire in Syria would hold. We are alarmed

:27:02.:27:12.
:27:12.:27:14.

for the on going violence in Syria, we are concerned about the problems

:27:14.:27:19.

facing special envoy, Kofi Annan, as he attempts to bring about a

:27:19.:27:24.

ceasefire. Senator John McCain has just visited the Syrian border, he

:27:24.:27:31.

can talk to us from Arizona. Let me play devil's advocate, Syria is a

:27:31.:27:34.

sovereign country, there are serious problems of unrest on the

:27:34.:27:39.

streets there. Why is the regime there not to be allowed to deploy

:27:39.:27:48.

its own forces to restore law and order? Because according to

:27:48.:27:53.

international law, and all norms of behaviour, is Governments are not

:27:53.:27:59.

allowed to massacre their own citizens, especially in the wanton

:27:59.:28:03.

way that the Bashar al-Assad's regime is conducting itself. It is

:28:03.:28:09.

a violation of UN charters, other provisions of international law.

:28:09.:28:18.

What help do you propose that the rest of the world gives the rebels?

:28:18.:28:22.

Well, first of all, we have to understand it's not a fair fight.

:28:22.:28:30.

Russian arms are pouring in to Syria. Iranians are not only

:28:30.:28:33.

providing them with assistance in a material way, there are Iranians on

:28:33.:28:37.

the ground, they are helping them with the terrible obscene murder,

:28:37.:28:42.

rape, torture that is going on. And so, it is not a fair fight. It is a

:28:42.:28:47.

fight. What we need to do is give them weaponry, and by the way, we

:28:47.:28:52.

can find ways to get the weapons to them, I met with two military

:28:52.:29:02.
:29:02.:29:03.

leaders of the Free Syrian Army, right across the border from Syria

:29:03.:29:10.

in tuarky. We can get them that -- Turkey, we can get them the

:29:10.:29:15.

equipment and can help with medical care. The Turkish are talking about

:29:15.:29:19.

a sanctuary for the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian National

:29:19.:29:25.

Council, so they can organise, so they can come together, and they

:29:25.:29:30.

can resist in a co-ordinated fashion. That would be a sanctuary

:29:31.:29:37.

within Syria? Not necessarily. I think it could be a sanctuary

:29:37.:29:42.

across the borders of one of the neighbouring countries.

:29:42.:29:51.

Would you be in favour of western forces protecting that sanctuary?

:29:51.:29:57.

Yes I would. I know that many people are watching now saying we

:29:57.:30:01.

don't know who they are, we don't know how to do it, that this is a

:30:01.:30:05.

very difficult situation, Americans are war-weary, I have heard all of

:30:05.:30:11.

those arguments, I heard them with Libya and Bosnia, and Kosovo. But

:30:11.:30:18.

the fundamental belief that we share is that Governments should

:30:18.:30:22.

not be allowed to massacre their own people. If we can do something

:30:22.:30:29.

about it. There is plenty to do about it. As I said, it is an

:30:29.:30:32.

unfair fight. How long do you expect the ceasefire to last,

:30:32.:30:40.

briefly? Maybe 15-minutes. Because the people will take to the streets

:30:40.:30:44.

again, and peacefully demonstrate, and Bashar al-Assad cannot tolerate

:30:44.:30:51.

that. Already they have imposed conditions which are clearly

:30:51.:30:56.

unacceptable. Mr Annan, I think, is dwelling in a different parallel

:30:56.:31:01.

universe, when he says that he's worried about the militarisation of

:31:01.:31:04.

the conflict. Thank you very much indeed, thank

:31:04.:31:08.

you. They were the boast of the United

:31:08.:31:13.

Nations, enthusiastically embraced as a mission for Governments the

:31:13.:31:17.

world over, and providing the Department of Development in this

:31:17.:31:22.

country a reason to exist. They are the Millennium Development Goals,

:31:22.:31:27.

the agreement of 200 countries, that they would mark the end of the

:31:27.:31:32.

century by ending extreme poverty, and improving women's rights.

:31:32.:31:36.

Nobody questioned the noblity of the aim. But Newsnight has learned

:31:36.:31:40.

that David Cameron has been asked to redraft those goals.

:31:40.:31:44.

What's going on? He will redraft them. It will be nonsensical if the

:31:44.:31:48.

UK did it on its own, given the nature of the goals. I have been

:31:48.:31:51.

told it is highly likely a country like Brazil will co-chair it, there

:31:51.:31:55.

may be others, it is certainly the UK at the moment. It will be

:31:55.:31:59.

announced next week, it is within the gift of the UN, and we can't

:31:59.:32:03.

just take it ourselves. In the words of the cabinet minister for

:32:03.:32:06.

international development, the UK is a development superpower, it is

:32:06.:32:09.

what we do. We do a lot of these around. We don't always get it

:32:09.:32:13.

right, we are trusted with technical projects, it is seen that

:32:13.:32:17.

we understand what we are doing, that is why we are being given a

:32:17.:32:21.

role in drafting new versions. is going to happen to the goals?

:32:21.:32:25.

the moment, if you look at them, there is one to reduce infant

:32:25.:32:29.

mortality, an aim for primary education, but not secondary.

:32:30.:32:37.

Decrease malaria within countries. People say these are sword of

:32:37.:32:38.

secondary issues, incredibly important -- sort of secondary

:32:38.:32:41.

issues, incredibly important, but not the way to improve the

:32:41.:32:45.

situation of a country. As an NGO you go into a country and sort that

:32:45.:32:48.

out, but not as a national leader within that country do that sort of

:32:48.:32:51.

things necessarily on your own. What they are trying to do is push

:32:51.:32:55.

for economic development to be at the heart of these new goals. For

:32:55.:32:59.

instance, it is long argued that you should have property rights as

:33:00.:33:03.

one of the ambitions, so you actually have people with assets

:33:03.:33:08.

who can develop on their own within a country, and things like primary

:33:08.:33:10.

and secondary education flowing from it. That is what the

:33:10.:33:12.

Government thinks. What do you think it will look like if the

:33:12.:33:17.

Government gets their way? Some of them we see today will go, some are

:33:17.:33:21.

meaningless. There will be the property rights, an emphasis on

:33:21.:33:24.

reducing trade barriers within continents like Africa. There might

:33:25.:33:28.

be an assertion of job creation and wealth creation, this is much more

:33:28.:33:32.

in terms it of all those boats being lifted by rising tides, that

:33:32.:33:36.

old proverb. That is not liked by many people. Also, really critical,

:33:36.:33:39.

there will be, and bear in mind this is the beginning of a

:33:39.:33:42.

consultation process, that everyone will kick off on. There might be

:33:42.:33:46.

some emphasis on conditionality. The idea at the moment these goals

:33:46.:33:48.

are meaningless, because people have to do them rather than aid

:33:49.:33:53.

being linked to it, maybe that should change in the future, as

:33:53.:33:57.

what People of Freedom in Government do think. The shadow of

:33:57.:34:00.

the -- People in Government do think.

:34:00.:34:05.

In France each of those want to go win the presidency, darkly warned

:34:05.:34:09.

the French people of what might happen if they return the wrong

:34:09.:34:14.

conclusion to return the men in built-up heels. President Sarkozy

:34:14.:34:20.

has rained over the loss of the trip all A rating, his opposition

:34:20.:34:30.
:34:30.:34:32.

say they can return that. How will Sarkozy try to save his presidency?

:34:32.:34:36.

A few hours east of Paris, deep in rural France, there is a shrine, to

:34:36.:34:42.

a man and his ideology. General Charles de Gaulle lived and

:34:43.:34:47.

died here, leaving behind a powerful idea of France.

:34:47.:34:51.

His views on how the country should be run are still so influential

:34:51.:34:56.

that, apparently, his heir as leader of the Gaullist movement,

:34:56.:35:03.

comes here to commune with his spirit. TRANSLATION: President

:35:03.:35:08.

Sarkozy often comes alone to this place, it is for him, as it was for

:35:08.:35:13.

General de Gaulle, an ideal place for reflection. Learning about de

:35:13.:35:18.

Gaulle is part of the syllabus for French schools. To these children,

:35:18.:35:23.

he was a war leader, who embodied national unity.

:35:23.:35:27.

Later, they learn about how he put France on the European and world

:35:27.:35:35.

stage, as well as fostering a welfare state. Today, Nicolas

:35:35.:35:41.

Sarkozy, cites de Gaulle often, but is that anything more than here

:35:41.:35:45.

lip-service. At the start of his foof-year term, he seemed determine

:35:45.:35:50.

to -- five-year term, he seemed determine a new politics,

:35:50.:35:56.

determined to shake up the state in his presidency. The way he started

:35:56.:36:01.

as President was childish, he gave the impression was playing with

:36:01.:36:06.

power, and Nicolas Sarkozy almost never envokes the greatness of

:36:06.:36:15.

France. La grandeur, like de Gaulle says,

:36:15.:36:21.

it is not in his project. Nevertheless, he certainly

:36:21.:36:26.

considers Germany and France as the leaders, the legitimate leaders of

:36:26.:36:36.

Europe. President de Gaulle had a very

:36:36.:36:39.

well-defined idea of what France should represent, and of its place

:36:39.:36:43.

at the head of the nations of Europe. But today, as the country

:36:43.:36:48.

heads for presidential elections, its national self-confidence has

:36:48.:36:56.

been bat bird the economic crisis. And the standard bearer of Gaullism,

:36:56.:36:59.

President Sarkozy, is accused of losing his way, and not knowing

:36:59.:37:08.

what on earth he stands for. Sarkozy Askam pain styles are a

:37:08.:37:14.

world away from -- Sarkozy's campaign styles are a world away

:37:14.:37:19.

from the country ways, and General de Gaulle. Most French people want

:37:19.:37:23.

to protect their own lifestyle, the President is behind in the polls.

:37:23.:37:28.

His position is hardly helped by the message that gaining economic

:37:28.:37:35.

vitally will require them to adopt foreign models. In Europe there is

:37:35.:37:40.

two models. The Swedish model and German model, cutting spending and

:37:40.:37:44.

reforming our economy, so it will be more competitive. That is, of

:37:44.:37:48.

course, a German or Sweden model. There is another model, it has

:37:48.:37:53.

become the Greek model, it is a model where you choose to make even

:37:53.:38:00.

more spending during the following years, and making more spending,

:38:00.:38:05.

you raise taxes to, I don't know, rocketing level. And this is not

:38:05.:38:11.

the good model. President Sarkozy started this

:38:11.:38:17.

contest far behind in the polls. So he unleashed a series of messages

:38:17.:38:21.

about security, immigration, and identity, that were designed to

:38:21.:38:26.

bring him support from the far right. But in the process he has

:38:26.:38:30.

alienated many in the centre and on the left, who say he's ignoring the

:38:30.:38:34.

real issues people say they care about in polls, as well as

:38:34.:38:40.

discarding the Gaullist tradition of national unity.

:38:40.:38:47.

We are social and democratic people. Gaullist and communist agree about

:38:47.:38:55.

that, de Gaulle says, at this time, we don't discriminate people from

:38:56.:39:02.

origin, race and religion. Sarkozy, it is the end of Gaullism. It is

:39:02.:39:10.

the death of all this tradition in the right in France.

:39:10.:39:14.

Even so, Socialist Party leader, Francois Hollande, is still set to

:39:14.:39:19.

beat Sarkozy in any run-off. He's a sort of Ed Milliband, in wonkiness,

:39:19.:39:25.

only the polls suggest Hollande is a winner. He promises to keep the

:39:25.:39:29.

French model welfare state alive, even if it means renegotiating the

:39:29.:39:36.

European austerity deal that Sarkozy signed up to in December.

:39:36.:39:40.

Monsieur Hollande's supporters suggest that would not bring

:39:40.:39:45.

disaster. If he's elected, far from being certain, I'm sure the first

:39:45.:39:50.

thing he will do is ask for a report on the real situation of the

:39:50.:39:54.

French finances. And act accordingly. I will advice him to

:39:54.:39:58.

do it so, the only -- advise him to do it so, the only way not to bear

:39:58.:40:02.

the burden of the cuts will be to do it immediately, just after the

:40:02.:40:07.

election. I'm sure he will do it. I'm sure, by the way, that Sarkozy

:40:07.:40:11.

will do it also. Further to the left of Hollande, this man seeks to

:40:11.:40:16.

protect the French social model with the same steely determination,

:40:16.:40:22.

at which he coraled the press at his policy launch.

:40:22.:40:26.

Jean-Luc Melenchon represents the left front. He's against the

:40:26.:40:33.

Americans, NATO, the markets and the EU. TRANSLATION: Of course it

:40:33.:40:36.

is complicated, and I don't hide from you that when it was present

:40:36.:40:43.

today me, I felt it contains a vision I like to call Jacobean, it

:40:43.:40:48.

is not an insult but honour to be called that. It is extraordinary

:40:48.:40:52.

after two hours of listening to Mr Melenchon how extensively his ideas

:40:52.:40:58.

about what France should stand for, are informed by ideas of

:40:58.:41:02.

exceptionalism. France's unique place in the world, that really go

:41:02.:41:05.

back to General de Gaulle, and a certain type of nationalism, which

:41:05.:41:10.

I don't think many of us would expect to see on what formally

:41:10.:41:14.

would have been -- formerly would have been called the far left. His

:41:14.:41:18.

rejection of austerity, has contributed to a steady rise in the

:41:18.:41:22.

polls. TRANSLATION: Austerity is a

:41:23.:41:28.

strategy of international finance that is shared by French liberals,

:41:28.:41:32.

we say the Anglo-Saxons like facts. The fact is austerity will release

:41:32.:41:36.

a recession in all of Europe, which will lead us into a disaster, by

:41:37.:41:39.

keeping down the salaries of the working-class and maximising

:41:39.:41:49.
:41:49.:41:50.

profits. The critque of President Sarkozy extends to his probity too.

:41:50.:41:55.

At Mediapart, an on-line newspaper, they have accused the President of

:41:55.:41:58.

taking contributions from Libya and big business during his 2007

:41:58.:42:03.

campaign. At the morning meeting, they follow

:42:03.:42:07.

this contest, arguing that Sarkozy has to win to stay ahead of the

:42:07.:42:14.

investigators. You know, in France, the President

:42:14.:42:23.

has traditional immunity, if he loses, all of it must come, the

:42:23.:42:30.

cabinet and I must ask some questions. Because all the figures

:42:30.:42:39.

are very surprising. It is not small money. It is millions. Many

:42:39.:42:44.

millions of euros. The murders in Toulouse were seen

:42:45.:42:51.

by some as a game changer. In his role as President, he attended

:42:51.:42:55.

memorial events, and articulated the nation's outrage. He also

:42:55.:42:58.

played -- it also played into Sarkozy's security agenda, allowed

:42:58.:43:02.

him to rise above the funding allegations, he denies them any way,

:43:02.:43:07.

and final low demonstrate the maturity of his years in the top

:43:07.:43:14.

job. Everybody was standing still behind the President to say, we are

:43:14.:43:19.

all French, and this is the French people, and we will resist violence,

:43:19.:43:22.

we will resist hatred, that was the message of the President, and he

:43:22.:43:27.

was really the President of all the French people. You can observe an

:43:27.:43:34.

important change. The first year of his presidency was very agitated,

:43:34.:43:41.

and he was exposing his personal life and in fact, this agitation

:43:41.:43:51.
:43:51.:43:52.

has largely stopped. At his campaign rallies, this one

:43:52.:43:57.

for the party youth movement, President Sarkozy emphasises

:43:57.:44:07.
:44:07.:44:10.

experience, and competence. If these people loved it, the

:44:10.:44:16.

public is more skept quell. So the negative -- sceptical, so the

:44:16.:44:20.

negative campaign tactics extend to suggesting the front runner,

:44:20.:44:24.

Francois Hollande, could destroy international economic confidence

:44:24.:44:34.
:44:34.:44:34.

in France. Francois Hollande has a problem, for me, of credibility. On

:44:34.:44:39.

financial issues, deficit issues, and international issues.

:44:39.:44:43.

But what of Sarkozy himself? And his many presidential significant

:44:43.:44:49.

zags on policy? REPORTER: A moment for the BBC?

:44:49.:44:54.

The critics argue that he's an opportunist who lacks an ideolgical

:44:54.:44:59.

core, goalist or otherwise. Nicolas Sarkozy is a very close friend of

:44:59.:45:04.

mine for 30 years, and I like him very much as a friend. He's one of

:45:04.:45:11.

the most amazing friends you may have in life. But I must say the

:45:11.:45:16.

core belief is not his cup of tea. That's all I can say. If I may add

:45:16.:45:24.

something, I would say he's a lawyer. What is a lawyer? Someone

:45:24.:45:28.

who can...Argue Any position? In this election the public seems

:45:28.:45:34.

to be rallying behind those who say they will protect the Gaullist idea

:45:34.:45:38.

of France. Nicolas Sarkozy, on the other hand, has used the language

:45:39.:45:48.

of austerity, and that's made him distinctly suspect to many voters.

:45:48.:45:58.
:45:58.:46:22.

That's quite enough excitement for Sun yie for some, wet for others,

:46:22.:46:26.

it -- sunny for some, wet for others, it depend where you live.

:46:26.:46:30.

Huge variations in the weather on Thursday as for Wednesday. It looks

:46:30.:46:34.

as if the more central and eastern parts of England in particular will

:46:34.:46:40.

catch the heaviest of the downpours, thunder, lightning and hail. Slow

:46:40.:46:44.

moving too, one or two places will avoid the worst of those showers,

:46:44.:46:50.

if I was to stick my neck out, parts of western England will fare

:46:50.:46:54.

better. Parts of sunny Devon and Cornwall seeing a largely bright

:46:54.:46:59.

afternoon. Not helping the temperatures, 10-11 at best. When

:46:59.:47:05.

the showers come along, they will be distinctly cold. For Northern

:47:05.:47:09.

Ireland avoiding showers, cool in the breeze, that will be the

:47:09.:47:13.

message for Scotland as well. Sunshine for the western Highlands,

:47:13.:47:18.

cold, and breezy across the far north-east. Things getting colder.

:47:18.:47:23.

Day by day, again, a mixture of sunshine and showers, difficult to

:47:23.:47:30.

pinpoint who will fare best. Cater for a shower or two, and you won't

:47:30.:47:34.

be desapoifrpbted. Showers -- disappointed. Showers turning

:47:34.:47:37.

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