Browse content similar to 12/04/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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The budget from hell was how one senior Tory described it today. It | :00:13. | :00:17. | |
would be a huge exaggeration to say there is anything like panics in | :00:17. | :00:20. | |
the ranks of the Conservative Party, but there is unease at how one | :00:20. | :00:24. | |
measure after another seems to be blowing up in their faces. | :00:24. | :00:28. | |
A champion of fill thranthropy takes on a Treasury Minister, over | :00:28. | :00:32. | |
the Government's plan to cap wealthy people's donations to | :00:32. | :00:36. | |
charity. A fragile ceasefire begins in | :00:36. | :00:39. | |
ceasefire, but the fear and loathing are far from gone. We will | :00:39. | :00:42. | |
hear from the former chief of the general staff, and the wounded | :00:42. | :00:47. | |
photographer, recently smuggled out of the country. | :00:47. | :00:51. | |
Is the legacy of the Republican race for the presidential | :00:51. | :00:54. | |
nomination, a party so obsessed with abortion, that it can no | :00:54. | :01:00. | |
longer speak to normal women. all worked up because Hitler killed | :01:00. | :01:04. | |
six million, look how he did it, we are allowing it and promoting it. | :01:04. | :01:08. | |
And will the world soon be turning to half-a-dozen otherwise | :01:08. | :01:13. | |
unconnected countries to find the growth upon which capitalism | :01:13. | :01:23. | |
:01:23. | :01:23. | ||
depends more its survival. It is over three weeks since the | :01:23. | :01:29. | |
coalition Government's budget, and now another one of its measures | :01:29. | :01:32. | |
wreaking political damage, one minute it is pasties and tax breaks | :01:32. | :01:37. | |
for the wealthy, now uncovered is deep disquiet in the Conservative | :01:37. | :01:43. | |
Party over the plans to cap donations to charity. Even if, as | :01:43. | :01:47. | |
some suspect, the ultimate author of the measure is Nick Clegg, this | :01:47. | :01:51. | |
is not the sort of thing MPs expected from George Osborne, who | :01:51. | :01:55. | |
is widely thought within the party as being competent. | :01:55. | :01:59. | |
Our political editor, Allegra Stratton, is here. How deep is the | :01:59. | :02:02. | |
disquiet? I understand from someone who has spoken to the Prime | :02:02. | :02:05. | |
Minister about this, that there will be action in the next weeks | :02:05. | :02:08. | |
and months, to make the distinction between those genuine donations to | :02:08. | :02:11. | |
charity, and those that are a wheeze to get down a tax bill. | :02:11. | :02:15. | |
However, we should acknowledge, which we will go on to talk in the | :02:15. | :02:18. | |
package. There is a killer sentence in this red book, which is the | :02:18. | :02:22. | |
budget, which stipulates they were going to talk to philanthropists in | :02:22. | :02:27. | |
the coming months to make sure they did deep down the damage to | :02:27. | :02:30. | |
charitable donations. All of that to one side, this is playing to a | :02:30. | :02:33. | |
sense, not just on the backbenches, but within Government, you have | :02:33. | :02:35. | |
people in the culture ministry that weren't consulted about this | :02:35. | :02:40. | |
measure, so there is a minutes from people like Nick Herd that they | :02:40. | :02:44. | |
need to be on the attack about this you have the Big Society, central | :02:44. | :02:50. | |
to the primal vision, which he think is central to the country, | :02:50. | :02:53. | |
with this perceived attack on charities, if it is not a real one. | :02:53. | :02:57. | |
Today, ask pretty much any Tory MP how they feel about their | :02:57. | :03:01. | |
leadership, whether they might be prepared, to say, erect a statue to | :03:01. | :03:04. | |
the men who run the party, they would cloak on the leftover Easter | :03:04. | :03:09. | |
eggs. Only six days before the end of the parliamentary term, the | :03:09. | :03:13. | |
Chancellor delivered a budget so heavily prebriefed, it could surely | :03:13. | :03:18. | |
have few surprises. In the intervening few weeks, perpetual | :03:18. | :03:22. | |
bad surprises makes this an unpopular budget, in the words of | :03:23. | :03:26. | |
one senior Conservative, it is the budget from hell. This latest | :03:26. | :03:31. | |
surprise to party manages is target today hurt like a boomerang with | :03:31. | :03:34. | |
sat-nav. This is the angel of Christian charity, it was put to | :03:34. | :03:39. | |
the Earl of Shaftsbury, in the Victorian era, in recognition of | :03:39. | :03:42. | |
all of his philanthropy. It is something David Cameron has wanted | :03:42. | :03:47. | |
to emulate. The Big Society, would see charities take on the role the | :03:47. | :03:51. | |
state had in previous years taken on. With the recent budget move, | :03:51. | :03:55. | |
MPs feel this is being made impossible. One MP described it as | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
entirely indefensible, another, normal low very loyal MP, said he | :03:58. | :04:03. | |
was just waiting for the grown-ups to take over. | :04:03. | :04:06. | |
The modern-day attack on philanthropists began like this. | :04:06. | :04:11. | |
Months ago the Tories decided to scrap the 50p rate of tax, they | :04:11. | :04:15. | |
knew they could only do so if they could show they were getting more | :04:15. | :04:20. | |
back in otherwise, Nick Clegg's tycoon tax. Higher rate tax players | :04:20. | :04:28. | |
could donate unlimited amounts to charity and offset it against tax. | :04:28. | :04:33. | |
Last month the Government sought to cap it, as they felt phantom | :04:33. | :04:38. | |
charities were being used. Charities said they would lose �80 | :04:39. | :04:47. | |
million in donations, Tory MPs weighed in their own side. | :04:47. | :04:51. | |
Today Conservative MP, Chris White, was typical of the feeling within | :04:51. | :04:56. | |
his party. He urged the Chancellor to have a | :04:56. | :05:00. | |
re-think, to have really good thinking, and not damage a sector | :05:00. | :05:03. | |
that need to be thriving rather than damaged for others' faults. | :05:03. | :05:13. | |
:05:13. | :05:19. | ||
One of the first critic was a These Conservatives were riled when | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
the Business Secretary this morning, was the first cabinet minister was | :05:23. | :05:27. | |
to sanctions a source to brief that he would sanctions a change. A | :05:27. | :05:32. | |
source close to Vince Cable said he fullied supported the need to clamp | :05:32. | :05:37. | |
down on tax avoidance, but it should be separated from genuine | :05:37. | :05:41. | |
charitable giving. As a fundraiser for over 16 years, I would have | :05:41. | :05:43. | |
loved a donation of that magnitude in the first place. I recognise | :05:44. | :05:46. | |
there are charities that do get that amount of money. It is | :05:46. | :05:48. | |
important that they are not suffering, or made to suffer | :05:49. | :05:53. | |
because of these changes. So it is important that, and it is crucial, | :05:53. | :05:56. | |
that the Government get into dialogue with the charity sector, | :05:56. | :06:01. | |
to ensure that doesn't happen. The Victorians celebrated | :06:02. | :06:04. | |
philanthropists, another London statue, another figure of the angel | :06:04. | :06:08. | |
of charity. Today the Government is maintaining that they too are | :06:08. | :06:13. | |
freoints of the philanthropists, if you look at page 33 of this, the | :06:13. | :06:19. | |
budget from last month, it says they intend to explore with | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
philanthropists ways that it won't impact on charitable giving. | :06:24. | :06:26. | |
Cabinet ministers are acknowledging they will have to make sure there | :06:26. | :06:29. | |
is a distinction between genuine charitable giving, and those | :06:29. | :06:34. | |
seeking to put money into charities as a way of keeping their tax bill | :06:34. | :06:37. | |
down. For those more sceptical of the Government's intentions, there | :06:37. | :06:41. | |
is echos of how they dealt with another unpopular change, child | :06:41. | :06:46. | |
benefit before, the Treasury said it wouldn't do s and then | :06:46. | :06:50. | |
introduced a complicated taper system. One idea being discussed | :06:50. | :06:54. | |
with charities is to define more clearly with what a charity s and | :06:54. | :06:57. | |
impose a cap on charities unrecognised, even if the | :06:57. | :07:01. | |
Government's policy is what it says it is, it is a marker of the mood | :07:01. | :07:11. | |
in the parliament that stuck. Legend has it the angel has been | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
put facing away from Shaftesbury Avenue, that could be for the | :07:15. | :07:17. | |
Tories an accurate description of their Government. Cabinet ministers | :07:18. | :07:20. | |
insist this is the mid-term blues, the two years into the Government | :07:20. | :07:24. | |
when there is hard pounding, and it is just difficult. Others say that | :07:24. | :07:27. | |
is not quite true, when they are chasing economic deficit reduction | :07:27. | :07:31. | |
and growth it is one thing, when growth looks elusive, who is this | :07:32. | :07:34. | |
Government for, who do they stand for? | :07:34. | :07:36. | |
Within minutes of it coming from the Chancellor's mouth, it was | :07:36. | :07:40. | |
clear they had a problem with the changes they intended to make to | :07:40. | :07:44. | |
pensioner allowances. What became known as the granny tax. Within a | :07:44. | :07:48. | |
week, revelations about millionaire donors being invited to Number Ten, | :07:48. | :07:51. | |
came unhelpfully quickly after a budget that cut the top rate of tax. | :07:51. | :07:55. | |
Budget changes to the taxation of pasties were revealed quickly after | :07:55. | :07:58. | |
that. Senior Government members were | :07:58. | :08:02. | |
found scrambling to remember the last time they had eaten a pasty. | :08:02. | :08:05. | |
We have a series of good policies that help working-class people, | :08:05. | :08:09. | |
that are designed to help the most vulnerable, not enough people know | :08:09. | :08:13. | |
about them. At the moment there are a series of clothes pegs without a | :08:13. | :08:16. | |
washing line linking them all together. We need to do a lot more | :08:16. | :08:19. | |
to communicate to people that we are the party of the vulnerable, | :08:19. | :08:22. | |
and the party for the hard working- classs for aspiration and | :08:23. | :08:27. | |
opportunity. For all people inside Government | :08:27. | :08:30. | |
think they are damage, they think the damage is not deep. Education | :08:30. | :08:34. | |
and welfare reforms show plenty of direction, they say, they also | :08:34. | :08:39. | |
point to the upcoming sequence of events, they think Boris Johnson | :08:39. | :08:43. | |
wins the London election, and the stories of Labour faring ill in | :08:43. | :08:49. | |
London and Glasgow, soon a Queen's Speech and second legislative | :08:49. | :08:53. | |
accession, yes, include their critics, elections for the House of | :08:53. | :08:56. | |
Lords, which their critics also loathe. | :08:56. | :09:00. | |
The statue was paid for by subscription of devoted followers, | :09:01. | :09:05. | |
the Tory leadership have heard loud and clear that they have a lot of | :09:05. | :09:10. | |
work until the statues are in the - - statutes are in the bag. | :09:10. | :09:20. | |
:09:20. | :09:27. | ||
My guests join me now. How many people do you know give | :09:27. | :09:31. | |
more than �50,000 or a quarter of their income to charity? I can't | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
answer that, the Sunday time's giving list that comes out at the | :09:35. | :09:40. | |
end of the month, talking about a quarter of the top 1,000 wealthiest | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
people lists are philanthropists, that is knowledgeable, plus another | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
quarter, perhaps, also give. They may be philanthropists, they may | :09:48. | :09:53. | |
not give a quarter of their income or over �50,000? That is not known. | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
We don't know what the loss to charity would be? The estimates | :09:56. | :10:00. | |
have been 20%. It is a nice round figure, and maybe people are just | :10:00. | :10:07. | |
guessing, what would you think, minister? I think as far as what | :10:07. | :10:12. | |
the behavioral impact will be, it is not entirely clear. | :10:12. | :10:16. | |
Philanthropists, such as yourself, don't just give because there is a | :10:16. | :10:20. | |
tax break there. People give money to charities because they want to | :10:20. | :10:24. | |
help a charity. You have done the sums when preparing the budget, how | :10:24. | :10:29. | |
much will it bring into the Treasury? The overall package of | :10:29. | :10:32. | |
capping reliefs, of which charitable donations is one, will | :10:32. | :10:36. | |
bring in �300 million. How much of that by capping charitable | :10:36. | :10:42. | |
donations? Roughly, our estimate is between �50hch �100 million | :10:42. | :10:47. | |
relating -- �50-�100 million relating to the capping of | :10:47. | :10:50. | |
charities. That money would have gone elsewhere? That is money we | :10:50. | :10:56. | |
believe should go to the Exchequer. But not to charity? The big point | :10:56. | :11:01. | |
here, if I may, is that we don't think it is right that people are | :11:01. | :11:05. | |
able to give to charities, or make use of these reliefs, in such a way, | :11:06. | :11:10. | |
that they have a very, very low rate of income tax. Indeed in some | :11:10. | :11:13. | |
cases they don't pay income tax at all. Everybody should pay some | :11:13. | :11:16. | |
income tax. One of the things I found when I was meeting with the | :11:16. | :11:22. | |
Treasury, fairly frequently, is they saw tax breaks as lost revenue. | :11:22. | :11:27. | |
Where as from the outside, a tax break is an investment in future | :11:27. | :11:32. | |
revenue. If you look at it like that, the Treasury is going to lose | :11:32. | :11:38. | |
as well as the clairts, if philanthropists -- charities, if | :11:38. | :11:41. | |
philanthropists start giving less. They already have started giving | :11:41. | :11:44. | |
less, we are having charities ringing up and saying they are | :11:44. | :11:48. | |
getting the warning knowss. If people are noblely motivated, | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
why will they be less so if they don't get a tax break? It leverages | :11:52. | :11:57. | |
what we are doing, I decide what to give to whom at what value, then I | :11:57. | :12:02. | |
decide to do it tax efficiently. It makes me feel good, because I'm | :12:02. | :12:05. | |
working with the local authorities. Would you give less if you weren't | :12:05. | :12:09. | |
getting a tax break? When the paper came out, I wouldn't make any | :12:09. | :12:13. | |
difference, but my advisers phoned me and said watch it, this will | :12:13. | :12:18. | |
affect you. And one has to be effective as well as efficient. | :12:18. | :12:24. | |
wouldn't affect how you behave? Frankly, no. Why should it affect | :12:25. | :12:28. | |
anyone else? They have different policies, I'm running out my | :12:28. | :12:32. | |
charity. My charity will be given away any way, and so I have put | :12:32. | :12:35. | |
everything into the Shirley Foundation, and it is going to come | :12:35. | :12:39. | |
out pretty fast. How many people did you consult | :12:39. | :12:42. | |
with before deciding upon this measure? We decided upon the | :12:42. | :12:45. | |
measure for the very reasons I have outlined, we think it is the right | :12:45. | :12:50. | |
thing to do we think it is fair. What we have said, and as was | :12:50. | :12:54. | |
pointed out in the report, we said we would consult with charities. | :12:54. | :12:58. | |
That is in the small print after saying you will bring in this | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
change. You will bring in this change, won't you? We will bring in | :13:02. | :13:06. | |
this change, what we have also said is we will explore ways to protect | :13:06. | :13:10. | |
those charities dependant on large donations. Did Jeremy Hunt know it | :13:10. | :13:14. | |
was going to be in the budget, did Vince Cable know it was going to be | :13:14. | :13:18. | |
in the budget, did you know it was going to be in the budget? Yes I | :13:18. | :13:22. | |
did. And you agreed with it? think it is fair. I think it is | :13:22. | :13:26. | |
unfair if most people are paying income tax at 20% or 40%, and yet | :13:26. | :13:30. | |
there are people who are very wealthy, and we are talking about | :13:30. | :13:33. | |
some of the wealthiest people in this country, who effectively are | :13:33. | :13:37. | |
paying very little in income tax, in some cases not paying income tax | :13:37. | :13:43. | |
at all. They may be doing some very, very good things, as Dame Stephaine | :13:43. | :13:47. | |
has done, in terms of charitable giving. We think there is a balance | :13:47. | :13:49. | |
that needs to be struck between contributing towards charities, | :13:49. | :13:53. | |
which people choose to do, and making a contribution towards | :13:53. | :13:56. | |
Government and paying for things like the Armed Forces and the NHS | :13:56. | :14:00. | |
and so on, all of which need to be paid for by somebody, and actually, | :14:00. | :14:04. | |
looking at the list they need to make their contribution. You can | :14:04. | :14:08. | |
see the force of the argument, don't you? Absolutely, I think | :14:08. | :14:11. | |
really you owe an apology to the philanthropists because you have | :14:11. | :14:15. | |
not consulted any. There is a summit scheduled for next month, | :14:15. | :14:17. | |
perhaps that might be an opportunity. But in the meantime, | :14:17. | :14:21. | |
none of us know what we are doing. People are already approaching the | :14:21. | :14:25. | |
charities and saying I may not be able to give you this amount next | :14:25. | :14:29. | |
year. To be fair, I have already had a meeting with representatives | :14:29. | :14:32. | |
from some of the charitable organisations. The charities are | :14:32. | :14:37. | |
different from the philanthropists. I agree that we need to have | :14:37. | :14:42. | |
meetings with charities, with philanthropists, all of that is | :14:42. | :14:46. | |
absolutely right. As we set out, on the day of the budget, we will | :14:46. | :14:50. | |
explore this carefully, we will consult, we will listen. But the | :14:50. | :14:55. | |
broad principle, which we announced, and the policy of a cap on reliefs. | :14:55. | :14:59. | |
We recognise that the tax system should encourage charitable giving, | :14:59. | :15:04. | |
the question is, should it be an unlimited relief. Up to now it has | :15:04. | :15:09. | |
been very pro. Your request for an apology has not been granted? | :15:09. | :15:12. | |
Indeed not. I'm not giving an apology. Can you help us with | :15:12. | :15:16. | |
something else then, the Prime Minister's spokesman said on | :15:16. | :15:19. | |
Tuesday, that one of the reasons you were so worried about this, was | :15:19. | :15:23. | |
because in some cases the charities didn't do much charitable work. Can | :15:23. | :15:27. | |
you tell us what those charities are? No, I can't name them. Because | :15:27. | :15:30. | |
don't know? Because of taxpayer confidentiality, and ministers | :15:30. | :15:35. | |
don't get informed of this. What I can say is HMRC have advised me | :15:35. | :15:41. | |
that there are cases where, for example, you might have a charity | :15:41. | :15:44. | |
where something like �20 million might be put into the charity, but | :15:44. | :15:50. | |
only something like �250,000 is actually spent. It is acting as a | :15:50. | :15:53. | |
charity, but we are not seeing the money spent properly. There are | :15:53. | :15:58. | |
other cases which are clearly flouting the rules. That is | :15:58. | :16:01. | |
something for the Charity Commissioners to engage with, isn't | :16:01. | :16:05. | |
it? It is, and HMRC works very closely with them. In some cases, a | :16:06. | :16:08. | |
lot of these charities aren't necessarily regulated by the | :16:08. | :16:11. | |
Charity Commission, because they are based overseas. It is difficult | :16:12. | :16:15. | |
in those circumstances to regulate them. But the particular example I | :16:15. | :16:20. | |
gave there, the Charity Commission would say well it's performing a | :16:20. | :16:24. | |
charitable purpose, but it's not proportionate to the amount of tax | :16:24. | :16:28. | |
relief that the donor has received, putting money into that charity, | :16:28. | :16:32. | |
but not actually seeing very much coming out and benefiting society | :16:32. | :16:37. | |
as a whole. The fact remains no matter how good the tax reliefs are | :16:37. | :16:42. | |
or not, you give much more than you get in relief. These are volunteer | :16:42. | :16:45. | |
givers who choose to invest in social issues. I accept that is the | :16:46. | :16:50. | |
case in the vast majority of the cases. The difficulty is if we end | :16:50. | :16:54. | |
up with a system whereby people are essentially able to take themselves | :16:54. | :16:58. | |
out of the income tax system, we want to take low earners out of the | :16:58. | :17:03. | |
income tax system, it is not right that the very wealthiest can take | :17:03. | :17:06. | |
themselves out. Despite all the gloomy prediction, a ceasefire did | :17:06. | :17:11. | |
happen in Syria today. It is pretty fragile, and the leader of the UN | :17:11. | :17:17. | |
mission there says the Assad has regime has yet to withdraw weapons | :17:17. | :17:20. | |
from urban areas. The secretary- general thinks a sing the shot | :17:20. | :17:23. | |
could wreck the whole thing. But the Russians, Assad's main | :17:23. | :17:30. | |
supporters, say there nai be an unarmed UN force deployed there | :17:30. | :17:34. | |
soon. Bring us up-to-date? I don't think many people dared hope that a | :17:34. | :17:38. | |
ceasefire would take hold at all. It is extremely fragile, but it is | :17:38. | :17:42. | |
really the first let-up Syrians have had since all of this began. | :17:42. | :17:45. | |
Lives have been saved, that is very welcome, obviously, for the people | :17:45. | :17:50. | |
of Syria. But both sides are accusing the other of violating the | :17:50. | :17:55. | |
ceasefire. Syrian state television said a bomb attack in Aleppo had | :17:55. | :17:59. | |
killed an army officer, activist groups say 15 civilians have been | :17:59. | :18:02. | |
killed. We will give awe flavour of some of the videos that have been | :18:02. | :18:07. | |
uploaded by the opposition to YouTube, we can't obviously verify | :18:07. | :18:17. | |
:18:17. | :18:22. | ||
them. But this is purportedly the town of Homs today. | :18:22. | :18:26. | |
This is Aleppo, people run ago I way from gunfire, we are not sure | :18:26. | :18:28. | |
of the circumstances, but clearly people are very scared. Elsewhere | :18:28. | :18:32. | |
there are protests that went ahead untroubled. As you can see. But a | :18:32. | :18:38. | |
very clear message, spelled out by students in Aleppo. I hope you are | :18:38. | :18:45. | |
seeing the pictures. They are forming the letters S-O-S? A very | :18:45. | :18:48. | |
clear message to the international community, they don't think the | :18:48. | :18:53. | |
danger is passed. Friday is the Day of Prayer, traditionally the day of | :18:53. | :18:56. | |
protest, since the Arab Spring began. People are expected try to | :18:56. | :19:01. | |
take to the streets en masse, how will the regime respond. Have you | :19:01. | :19:07. | |
spoken to anyone connected with the UN mission there? I have spoken to | :19:07. | :19:11. | |
UN officials in New York. There are discussions at the UN Security | :19:11. | :19:15. | |
Council at the moment over the deployment of UN observers to | :19:15. | :19:21. | |
monitor the truce. There is talk of an advanced team of 30 people who | :19:21. | :19:25. | |
could arrive in the next few days. They could be boosted to a couple | :19:25. | :19:28. | |
of hundred at a later stage. There are UN officials who have been in | :19:29. | :19:32. | |
Syria, led by a Norwegian general, who are negotiating with the | :19:32. | :19:35. | |
authorities there. They have apparently been pretty difficult | :19:35. | :19:41. | |
discussions. But this idea of an observer mission is being seriously | :19:41. | :19:44. | |
talked about. When I spoke to an visor for the secretary-general, | :19:44. | :19:48. | |
Ban Ki-Moon, he said he was hoping for a unanimous vote at the | :19:48. | :19:52. | |
Security Council tomorrow. They might decide it to be a lightly | :19:52. | :19:56. | |
armed force, as peacekeepers are. My guess is in Australian | :19:56. | :20:00. | |
probability they will have mostly side arms for personal protection | :20:00. | :20:08. | |
in some situations T would basically be an unarmed force for | :20:08. | :20:12. | |
prak -- practical purposes. They would be there to observe, | :20:12. | :20:16. | |
facilitate and report back on what is happening on the ground. To make | :20:16. | :20:20. | |
sure that the ceasefire has a bit more feet, and a bit more | :20:20. | :20:26. | |
sustainability than it looks like at the outset. | :20:26. | :20:29. | |
Caroline, within you think about that, and you think about the Arab | :20:29. | :20:34. | |
League mission, also an unarmed bunch of observers, that wasn't a | :20:34. | :20:38. | |
conspicuous success? I was told that lessons had been learned from | :20:38. | :20:42. | |
the ill-fated mission. He said UN observers in place are more | :20:42. | :20:45. | |
experienced, he said they have done this before. He said they had | :20:45. | :20:48. | |
always done this against the odds. The ceasefire is just the first | :20:48. | :20:51. | |
stage, this is meant to lead to a political process, the opposition | :20:51. | :21:00. | |
sitting down with the regime. And UN UN officials are seriously | :21:00. | :21:04. | |
sceptical about the Assad regime's intentions. So far they have shown | :21:04. | :21:09. | |
a strong tendency to think the answer is a military one, that you | :21:09. | :21:12. | |
can crucial your opposition militarily. We don't know that the | :21:12. | :21:17. | |
opposition has a unified platform, can choose people to represent them, | :21:17. | :21:21. | |
and that can come together in an effective and cohesive way. We | :21:22. | :21:25. | |
really don't know those kinds of things. One has to have tempered | :21:25. | :21:32. | |
optimisim at best. To discuss this is the photographer | :21:32. | :21:37. | |
Paul Conroy, injured in the Syrian city in Homs, in the same incident | :21:37. | :21:47. | |
:21:47. | :21:48. | ||
that killed the Sunday Times reporter, Marie Colvin, and the | :21:49. | :21:57. | |
former commander of the NATO force in Kosovo. There were less people | :21:57. | :22:00. | |
killed and injured today, that is a good thing? That is a good thing | :22:00. | :22:05. | |
for today. That is one thing. There is a lot of rampent optimisim | :22:05. | :22:09. | |
floating around about the ceasefire. Obviously they would like it to | :22:09. | :22:13. | |
work. Why do you say that? Experience, everyone has looked | :22:13. | :22:18. | |
over the last year at the regime's approach. I was there in Homs when | :22:18. | :22:22. | |
they had the referendum on the new constitution. I sat there in the | :22:22. | :22:26. | |
room while they shelled Homs consistently they gave the soldiers | :22:26. | :22:29. | |
an hour off to vote on the constitution, then it was back to | :22:29. | :22:33. | |
shelling. That is my experience of the regime's approach towards | :22:33. | :22:37. | |
negotiations and democracy. Let's talk about, we will talk | :22:37. | :22:41. | |
about what measures might be taken further than an unarmed mission. | :22:41. | :22:45. | |
First of all, this question of an unarmed mission, would you like to | :22:45. | :22:51. | |
be part of an unarmed UN observer mission in Syria? I wish them very | :22:51. | :22:56. | |
well. I wish the whole mission very well, of course. But my own | :22:56. | :23:01. | |
experience of unarmed observers is not a terribly happy one. They have | :23:01. | :23:05. | |
no power, of course, all they can do is to report. Now, there is a | :23:05. | :23:11. | |
moral, strength to that reporting, if somebody's getting it wrong. But | :23:11. | :23:16. | |
it needs goodwill on both sides to implement such an agreement, and I | :23:16. | :23:23. | |
echo Paul. How confident are we that the Assad regime has goodwill | :23:23. | :23:30. | |
to implementation of this. There is little evidence of any God will | :23:30. | :23:34. | |
there. Do either of you have any suggestions about how the cause of | :23:34. | :23:40. | |
peace mighting advanced there? think it is what sort -- Might be | :23:40. | :23:45. | |
advanced there? I think it is what sort of peace. You have oppression | :23:45. | :23:49. | |
and people beaten into called "peace". I think the genie is out | :23:49. | :23:53. | |
of the bottle. One needs to be careful, with comparisons, they are | :23:53. | :23:58. | |
not always directly helpful, but we have been here before, in other | :23:58. | :24:03. | |
places. Which other places? Libya is an obvious parallel. There was | :24:03. | :24:06. | |
western intervention in Libya? There was western intervention. And | :24:06. | :24:12. | |
one could argue, and I would, that the situation in Syria is at least | :24:12. | :24:16. | |
as bad, arguably worse. Does it justify western intervention? | :24:16. | :24:21. | |
but that depends now on basically the western approach, and indeed, | :24:21. | :24:25. | |
let us not forget, the two members of the Security Council who have | :24:25. | :24:31. | |
always been very shy of intervention, Russia and that. | :24:32. | :24:35. | |
the basis of your experience, and what you saw about how the Syrian | :24:35. | :24:39. | |
Government and forces behaved, what do you advocate? I'm fully in | :24:39. | :24:43. | |
favour of an intervention, I think the whole Annan peace plan depends | :24:43. | :24:46. | |
on the Syrian people putting their trust in this Government. Now they | :24:46. | :24:52. | |
have no reason, I think, to be honest. This is a brutal question. | :24:52. | :24:56. | |
But why is peace in Syria worth putting at risk the life of a | :24:56. | :25:02. | |
single British soldier? I think it boils down to a question of | :25:02. | :25:05. | |
humanity. Are we all prepared to sit around for the next year and | :25:05. | :25:09. | |
watch thousands upon thousands of innocent people slaughtered. | :25:09. | :25:12. | |
you imagine a British Prime Minister standing up and trying to | :25:12. | :25:15. | |
justify that decision? I would certainly like to see a British | :25:16. | :25:19. | |
Prime Minister stand up and try to just foi that decision. Can you see | :25:19. | :25:28. | |
it? You are dammed if you do, and you're dammed if you don't. That is | :25:28. | :25:32. | |
exactly the position regarding Benghazi a yor ago now had we not | :25:32. | :25:37. | |
taken action, -- a year ago, had we not taken action along with allies, | :25:37. | :25:42. | |
there would have been conned dem nation of allowing this brew -- | :25:43. | :25:46. | |
condemnation of allowing this brutal inhad you tan me to continue, | :25:46. | :25:51. | |
some people were not -- inhumanity to continue with that. Would you | :25:51. | :25:54. | |
have wanted to see forces committed without knowing the end game and | :25:54. | :26:00. | |
how to get them out? You would have to think through your campaign | :26:00. | :26:05. | |
carefully, we have not always been quite as good at the end game as we | :26:05. | :26:08. | |
should have been. The military campaign would be simple and fast, | :26:08. | :26:13. | |
it is transforming a country after that, that is the real challenge. | :26:13. | :26:20. | |
Do you have a view on that? I would see the intervention, not as a form | :26:20. | :26:25. | |
of arming the rebels and topping them up to overthrowing the regime. | :26:25. | :26:32. | |
I think it is now a case of saving lives, I would like corridors, safe | :26:32. | :26:36. | |
havens, established, on a light humanitarian basis. These people | :26:36. | :26:41. | |
have nowhere to run. It is not like in Libya where there were safe | :26:41. | :26:46. | |
areas people could get to, every inch of Syria is covered with the | :26:47. | :26:50. | |
regime. Now it is a humanitarian need, as opposed to regime change. | :26:50. | :26:53. | |
I think we need to provide some form of that. | :26:53. | :26:57. | |
Thank you very much. Rather unusual happenings in the | :26:58. | :27:00. | |
American presidential race today. Barack Obama's people are letting | :27:00. | :27:04. | |
it be known that they are in complete sympathy with the wife of | :27:04. | :27:07. | |
Mitt Romney, the likely Republican challenger for the White House. | :27:07. | :27:11. | |
They are defending her against Democrat accusations she has never | :27:11. | :27:14. | |
worked because she has been at home raising five boys. It is a mark of | :27:14. | :27:17. | |
how the presidential race is divided. And may be determined, | :27:17. | :27:21. | |
indeed, by gender. Obama has far more support from women, partly | :27:21. | :27:26. | |
because of the remarkable divisions in the US over abortion. | :27:26. | :27:30. | |
As Paul Mason reports, the issue has become charged in a way almost | :27:30. | :27:37. | |
unimaginable in Europe. An abortion clinic in Ohio, | :27:37. | :27:41. | |
protestors come here every day the clinic operates. | :27:41. | :27:46. | |
Inside, for all the intimacy and calm, they can't escape the sound | :27:46. | :27:50. | |
and fury the presidential election has stirred up. | :27:50. | :27:55. | |
Barack Obama voted in favour of legaliseing infantiside. He voted | :27:55. | :28:05. | |
to protect doctors who provide abortion. It is a campaign where | :28:05. | :28:08. | |
each candidate has tried to sound more anti-abortion than less. | :28:08. | :28:14. | |
America has become a country where a talk show host can attack a woman | :28:14. | :28:18. | |
for advocating publicly-funded contraception. She's having so much | :28:19. | :28:23. | |
sex she can't afford the contraception she wants, you and me | :28:23. | :28:27. | |
and the tax-payers paying her to have sex, it makes her a salute, | :28:27. | :28:31. | |
right? These are not just words, last year | :28:31. | :28:38. | |
half of all US states imposed new curbs on abortion. The laws being | :28:38. | :28:41. | |
proposed represent a new radical restriction on abortion. | :28:41. | :28:45. | |
The debate is being conducted in a language that is shocking and | :28:45. | :28:48. | |
extreme. And some Republicans think their party is being dragged so far | :28:48. | :28:53. | |
to the right on this issue, that its prospects in November's | :28:53. | :28:59. | |
election could be seriously compromised. | :28:59. | :29:04. | |
In Ohio, home to rust belt cities, and millions of the post-industrial | :29:04. | :29:08. | |
poor, they are working on one of the most restrictive new laws. If | :29:08. | :29:15. | |
passed, it will ban all abortions, once a heart beat is detected. That | :29:15. | :29:21. | |
is usually about six weeks. strategy is to put those laws in | :29:21. | :29:26. | |
place state-by-state, and erode and destroy access to abortions. That | :29:26. | :29:34. | |
is what's working. Under pressure from protestors, | :29:34. | :29:38. | |
hospitals here no longer perform abortions. This basic facility in | :29:38. | :29:42. | |
Toledo, run by a charity, is the only one for miles around. People | :29:42. | :29:47. | |
who work here say it is the poorest women who need the most help. | :29:47. | :29:53. | |
know that even when it is illegal, women still have done abortions in | :29:53. | :29:57. | |
themselves. They do that at great personal risk. It is not an issue | :29:57. | :30:01. | |
of banning abortion, it is an issue of banning safe and legal abortions. | :30:01. | :30:06. | |
It makes it harder for them to get services. The other thing is it | :30:06. | :30:10. | |
makes it harder for them to fund the services, once they find them, | :30:10. | :30:15. | |
and it makes it, I think it also puts a burden of despair on them. | :30:15. | :30:20. | |
It puts a burden of guilt and shame that they should not have. | :30:20. | :30:26. | |
Texas already enforces something called a transhave a guile nan | :30:26. | :30:36. | |
:30:36. | :30:37. | ||
ultra sound, this -- transvaginal ultra sound, this is so a woman can | :30:37. | :30:41. | |
see and hear the foetus before an abortion. When other states tried | :30:41. | :30:46. | |
to follow, the battle wind nationwide. Now to the heated | :30:46. | :30:51. | |
battle over reproductive and abortion rights. Ultra sounds for | :30:51. | :30:59. | |
women seeking an abortion. At which point the Obama administration | :30:59. | :31:02. | |
announced plans to include contraception in its healthcare | :31:02. | :31:09. | |
reforms, and the Republican presidential candidates went appo | :31:09. | :31:15. | |
pletic. Sterilisation, and morning- after bill. You voted for birth | :31:15. | :31:19. | |
control pills. That is what they do, not us. The Obama camp could not | :31:19. | :31:23. | |
have hoped for a more try dent reaction. Among women voters, | :31:23. | :31:28. | |
Republican front runner, Mitt Romney, is already polling up to 18 | :31:28. | :31:31. | |
points behind President Obama in battleground states. Senior | :31:31. | :31:35. | |
Republicans feel the tenor of the debate has seriously affected their | :31:35. | :31:38. | |
charity's chances in November. don't think they have handled this | :31:38. | :31:41. | |
too well, let me point out, that they didn't bring this issue up, | :31:41. | :31:46. | |
the President did. I always resist conspiracy theories, but if this | :31:47. | :31:51. | |
was a gambit on the part of the administration, it worked | :31:51. | :31:55. | |
beautifully. Some of our people took the bait. Mitch Daniels was | :31:55. | :32:00. | |
once a serious contender for the pup can party's presidential | :32:00. | :32:06. | |
nomination, he lacked support from the conservative base. He believes | :32:06. | :32:12. | |
the party's focus on these issues could doom them in the elections. | :32:12. | :32:17. | |
Our party could be doing a lot better. Sometimes I say given the | :32:17. | :32:21. | |
failure of the policies, a weak economy, it would be very hard to | :32:21. | :32:24. | |
lose an election to President Obama, but we have just the team that | :32:24. | :32:30. | |
could do it! That's not how it looks in Ohio. Among these rural | :32:30. | :32:32. | |
and middle-class voters, the religious right will take the | :32:33. | :32:38. | |
battle for the party's soul right up to November. | :32:38. | :32:42. | |
This group of Ohio activists lobbies tirelessly for the heart | :32:42. | :32:47. | |
beat bill. The doctor has to actually show the woman the heart | :32:47. | :32:52. | |
beat, on the ultra sound, let her hear the heart beat, if that heart | :32:52. | :32:57. | |
beat is detected then the baby is protected from the abortion. Why is | :32:57. | :33:05. | |
the heart beat so important? over the world, the signal, one | :33:05. | :33:08. | |
important issue of whether or not there is life, is whether or not | :33:08. | :33:11. | |
there is a heart beat. Politically they are purists, they are | :33:11. | :33:14. | |
determined to keep abortion at the centre of the election campaign, | :33:14. | :33:19. | |
regardless of the consequences. The time has come for us to stand | :33:19. | :33:24. | |
up and stand for what's right. would rather lose on the principle | :33:24. | :33:29. | |
issue than win with an alliance of quite conservative people, who just | :33:29. | :33:34. | |
don't share your views on abortion? Yes. It is not political at all. | :33:34. | :33:38. | |
From my vantage point it is a theological issue, so, yes, courage, | :33:38. | :33:41. | |
just take the stand, willing to lose? Yes. | :33:41. | :33:46. | |
We get all worked up because Hitler killed six million, and look how he | :33:46. | :33:51. | |
did it. And we're allowing it, and we're promoting it. Are you | :33:51. | :33:56. | |
comparing it to the Holocaust? is a Holocaust, it is time that | :33:56. | :34:00. | |
America wakes up to the truth. It is genocide. You couldn't then have | :34:00. | :34:03. | |
a political candidate who denied that, it would be like having a | :34:03. | :34:09. | |
Holocaust denial? Exactly. Outside the Toledo clinic, the | :34:09. | :34:13. | |
vigil continues. Inside gynaecologist, Martin Ruddock, has | :34:13. | :34:18. | |
finished work, after a day in which he terminated ten pregnancies. He | :34:18. | :34:21. | |
says there is no medical science behind the new laws, above all, he | :34:21. | :34:27. | |
thinks the ultra sound probe is about pure politics. This is a | :34:28. | :34:32. | |
transvajal probe, in that -- transvaginal probe, the patient | :34:32. | :34:37. | |
needs to be up in stirrups, you need to use a condom for protection | :34:37. | :34:41. | |
and lubricant, you must literally take this lengthy probe, and insert | :34:41. | :34:45. | |
it into the vagina, in order to get an interior view of what's going on. | :34:45. | :34:49. | |
It gives you a different perspective. To mandate the use of | :34:49. | :34:55. | |
this, would be absolute intrusion into women's reproductive care, it | :34:55. | :34:59. | |
is unnecessary in the practice of abortion practice. Why are they | :34:59. | :35:03. | |
doing it? To try to drive doctors away. To make the procedure more | :35:03. | :35:08. | |
expensive, and costly, to scare women away, and basically to put | :35:08. | :35:12. | |
additional obstacles, one after the other, in the path of a woman who | :35:12. | :35:20. | |
is pregnant and doesn't want to be. In some ways this is part of the | :35:20. | :35:25. | |
old culture war between liberals and Conservatives. The result is | :35:25. | :35:28. | |
almost silently, legal abortion for women from the poorest | :35:28. | :35:30. | |
neighbourhoods has become harder and harder. | :35:30. | :35:35. | |
It is in the election, and its effect on how women vote in | :35:35. | :35:42. | |
November, that the debate might have its loudest impact. Now this, | :35:42. | :35:48. | |
as David Attenborough, could have told you, is a civic cattle, so our | :35:48. | :35:55. | |
graphic department imagined. It is best known for secreting the musk | :35:55. | :35:58. | |
in perfumes, and the coffee beans, said to make a sensational kick | :35:58. | :36:06. | |
start. If you are an economy, or a banker, it is used as an acronym of | :36:06. | :36:15. | |
some of the new economies, Egypt, turkey, Brazilians, the acronym is | :36:15. | :36:21. | |
less agile, but we like it a lot more. A BRIC is a strong and robust | :36:21. | :36:26. | |
object, CIVIT is a meek mammal, whose oder is used to make perfume, | :36:26. | :36:32. | |
believe it or not. It is the smell of money that has said the CIVET | :36:32. | :36:37. | |
more came mus. Columbia, Indonesia, Vietnam, turkey, South Africa and | :36:37. | :36:43. | |
Egypt, all touted as the next waive of emerging economies, that could, | :36:43. | :36:47. | |
we stress the conditional, could match in terms of growth, but not | :36:47. | :36:52. | |
scale. What could unite, one south American, two African and three | :36:52. | :36:55. | |
Asian countries, separated by vast differences, as well as historical | :36:55. | :36:59. | |
and financial backgrounds. They all have young educated populations, 28 | :36:59. | :37:04. | |
is the median age, in Britain it is 40, and for Germany, Italy and | :37:04. | :37:08. | |
Japan, it is a more elderly 44. Youth and especially a trained one, | :37:08. | :37:12. | |
matters in a growing economy, it means you are producing a stream of | :37:12. | :37:15. | |
wealth creators, or at least consumers of goods and services. | :37:15. | :37:22. | |
And the other unifying factor for CIVETs is growth itself, land and | :37:22. | :37:25. | |
labour is cheap, and they have grown rapid low by our standards | :37:25. | :37:28. | |
over the past years. It is the combination of growth and youth, | :37:28. | :37:33. | |
which has led to a boom in foreign- led investment in these countries. | :37:33. | :37:37. | |
It is who do we look to next, who are the other economies that share | :37:37. | :37:40. | |
the characteristics of a very low level of development, but really | :37:40. | :37:44. | |
good foundations, good fundamentals, so they will grow rapidly in the | :37:44. | :37:47. | |
next few years. That have the potential, we think, to grow | :37:47. | :37:52. | |
rapidly, not just for a few years, but for a few decades ahead. | :37:52. | :37:55. | |
Certainly by far outpacing the rates of growth that we are going | :37:55. | :37:59. | |
to be seeing here in the western world. We could look at all six | :37:59. | :38:03. | |
countries, but to save time let's look at three. Colomboia has come a | :38:03. | :38:09. | |
long way from being a by-word for kidnapping and cocaine, a civil war | :38:09. | :38:13. | |
has fizzled out, main export is oil and coffee. Two commodities that | :38:13. | :38:17. | |
have soared in price of late. The Colomboians have worked hard to | :38:17. | :38:22. | |
inprom their corporate governance, that is paying off. Growth is | :38:22. | :38:31. | |
averageing between 5-6% a year. American companies alone invest $7 | :38:31. | :38:36. | |
billion in 2010. Turkey has long promised, but only now is | :38:36. | :38:40. | |
delivering. Check where your shirt was made, chances are it is turkey, | :38:40. | :38:49. | |
so too your washing machine. Turkey also makes cars, 1.1 million in | :38:49. | :38:56. | |
2010, in joint global ventures with Fiat and Toyota. It is thought to | :38:56. | :39:02. | |
grow 10% this year. Turkey had serious crises in the past, it has | :39:02. | :39:08. | |
come through that, has credible policy, and is very actively | :39:08. | :39:12. | |
attracting investment and boosting growth as a result of that. The | :39:12. | :39:15. | |
other interesting one is Indonesia, still a country that has an awful | :39:15. | :39:22. | |
lot of development to do. It is still very split in terms of parts | :39:22. | :39:26. | |
of it wealthy and parts of it poor. A country that has huge potential | :39:26. | :39:30. | |
going forward. Particularly in the region in Asia linked to China and | :39:30. | :39:35. | |
India both on its doorstep. David Cameron was on that doorstep this | :39:35. | :39:38. | |
week, Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world. With | :39:38. | :39:41. | |
an economic potential to match. Like its neighbours in Australia, | :39:41. | :39:47. | |
it has made hey on the back of an abundance of commodities, tin and | :39:47. | :39:51. | |
natural gas. It is the 11th-largest gas producer in the world. Its | :39:51. | :39:56. | |
young, mostly secular population has acquired a taste for shopping. | :39:56. | :40:00. | |
However attractive this group of nations are, they are a risky bet. | :40:00. | :40:05. | |
Most of the six countries aren't even considered investment grade by | :40:05. | :40:09. | |
the cred date rating agencies. Doing business is not straight | :40:09. | :40:12. | |
forward, democracy and accountability is new, if it exists | :40:12. | :40:19. | |
at all. Company law is sketchy, and punishments for what we consider | :40:19. | :40:21. | |
minor infringements can be draconian in some places. There is | :40:21. | :40:26. | |
the threat of civil unrest and outright war even. A year after | :40:26. | :40:31. | |
Israel was included in the -- Egypt was included in the list, it had a | :40:31. | :40:36. | |
major revolution and investment dried up for six months. You can't | :40:36. | :40:40. | |
say such events won't happen elsewhere, if a caveat applied it | :40:40. | :40:49. | |
is to the CIVETs. Here to explain more is the Colombian ambassador, | :40:49. | :40:59. | |
and a risk consultant at the your racialia group. Is this -- E URAISA | :40:59. | :41:08. | |
group. It was created by and after a thorough analysis of political | :41:08. | :41:12. | |
and social variables, it has a lot of potential in the facts, the | :41:12. | :41:17. | |
recent history proves that the economist is right in forecasting a | :41:17. | :41:22. | |
high growth rate for our economies. What do you have in common with | :41:22. | :41:26. | |
Egypt? We have a large young population. They had a growth rate | :41:26. | :41:32. | |
of less than 1% last year, 2% predicted for this year? The IMF | :41:32. | :41:36. | |
forecast as growth rate between 4- 6% for the coming three years in | :41:36. | :41:40. | |
Egypt. I agree that there is the potential for that kind of growth | :41:40. | :41:44. | |
rate. What do you make of this idea? | :41:44. | :41:50. | |
a bit more sceptical, I share the view that some of these countries | :41:50. | :41:55. | |
share a favourable growth outlook, but the acronym, I'm more on the | :41:55. | :41:59. | |
gimmick side, for a couple of reasons. First of all, it occurs to | :41:59. | :42:04. | |
me what are the commonalties between these countries, moving | :42:04. | :42:12. | |
from Indonesia 250 million, to Columbia 46 million. Second, why | :42:12. | :42:17. | |
Egypt is in this group? The gross outlook for Egypt is not that -- | :42:17. | :42:20. | |
the growth outlook is not that favourable. The assumption that | :42:21. | :42:25. | |
Egypt has good fundamentals is questionable. We could also ask why | :42:25. | :42:29. | |
some countries aren't in this group? Why isn't Mexico in there, | :42:30. | :42:36. | |
why isn't Malaysia in there, for example? I agree Mexico should be | :42:36. | :42:40. | |
included. Maybe it is a bit more difficult to get some gimmick | :42:40. | :42:43. | |
acronym if you put in too many countries? It is always difficult | :42:43. | :42:48. | |
to choose which countries to put in, which countries to leave out of | :42:48. | :42:52. | |
these catagories. But I agree that Mexico should be included there. It | :42:52. | :42:59. | |
has a huge population, a very large GDP, and it has solid institutions, | :42:59. | :43:03. | |
and I hope that they will continue doing well in the economic terms. | :43:03. | :43:09. | |
Do you have any plans for a CIVETs convention or group? Yes. You are | :43:09. | :43:14. | |
going to start to try acting as a group? We have been talking to the | :43:14. | :43:18. | |
prime ministers of these countries, our finance ministers are working | :43:18. | :43:22. | |
together in defining strategies. What will you hope to do? We hope | :43:22. | :43:26. | |
to have a common plan to promote investment in our countries. Both | :43:27. | :43:30. | |
domestic and foreign investment. For example, in Columbia, foreign | :43:30. | :43:34. | |
investment has multiplied by ten in the past ten years. Would you | :43:35. | :43:38. | |
invest in these countries? Certainly in some of them. | :43:38. | :43:42. | |
Indonesia, countries like that, countries like Turkey, South Africa, | :43:42. | :43:46. | |
Vietnam, they do enjoy a favourable economic outlook, there is no doubt | :43:46. | :43:50. | |
about that. The question is, once you put them in the same basket, | :43:50. | :43:55. | |
tough make the case for that. The case, in my view, is a fairly weak | :43:55. | :44:00. | |
case. Leaving aside creating the acronym, the fundamentals are not | :44:00. | :44:04. | |
there. The question is why Mexico isn't there, and why Egypt is in | :44:04. | :44:08. | |
the group. You may say that they suffer from a | :44:08. | :44:12. | |
silly name, perhaps, you could make all sorts of accusations, what you | :44:12. | :44:15. | |
can't argue with is their rate of growth. You look at the rate of | :44:15. | :44:19. | |
growth in this country. It is less than 1%. The rate of growth across | :44:19. | :44:22. | |
Europe, and you compare it with these countries. They are going | :44:22. | :44:27. | |
places, we are not? Absolutely. There is no question about that. | :44:27. | :44:32. | |
They all share, as it was said at the beginning, a favourable | :44:32. | :44:35. | |
economic outlook, there is no dispute about that. There are | :44:35. | :44:38. | |
significant challenges, even for a country like Columbia, which has | :44:38. | :44:42. | |
done very well over the past few years. With a significant take off. | :44:42. | :44:45. | |
There is a challenge there, how you manage all this new wealth. What | :44:45. | :44:48. | |
does it mean in terms of controlling inflation, what does it | :44:48. | :44:52. | |
mean in terms of controlling the rate of exchange, and so on. There | :44:52. | :44:57. | |
is a challenge there, growth is certainly good, but it comes with | :44:57. | :44:59. | |
challenges. Have you got any advice you would | :44:59. | :45:03. | |
like to give us? Jeremy, if you had invested in the Colombian stock | :45:03. | :45:09. | |
exchange ten years ago, your investment today would be worth 15- | :45:09. | :45:15. | |
times, but it is not too late, you can already invest now and get | :45:15. | :45:20. | |
healthy returns in the coming years. Would you invest in the Colombian | :45:20. | :45:27. | |
stock exchange? Lots of them do. Against your advice? Not at all. | :45:27. | :45:30. | |
The issue I'm not questioning is the growth of the country, it is | :45:30. | :45:34. | |
putting them all in the same basket. That is the key question. Not the | :45:34. | :45:39. | |
question of the growth outlook. Thank you very much. Teapots across | :45:39. | :45:44. | |
the Midlands were rattled by what the MoD revealed was the sonic boom | :45:44. | :45:52. | |
of a typhoon aircraft. People swamped the emergency siss after | :45:52. | :45:58. | |
supersonic was set off after emergency calls from a helicopter. | :45:58. | :46:08. | |
:46:08. | :46:10. | ||
The last time was in 19 47. There she goes, a big moment, in a | :46:10. | :46:17. | |
history-making flight. Now she raes approaching the | :46:17. | :46:22. | |
barrier, the -- she's approaching the barrier. 60 miles per hour. The | :46:22. | :46:27. | |
really big moment. Through the sound barrier, the | :46:27. | :46:37. | |
:46:37. | :46:37. | ||
Chilly weekend coming up, sunshine to compensate. | :46:38. | :46:40. | |
Very chilly start to the day tomorrow. Showers will develop, | :46:40. | :46:43. | |
just as we have seen over the last few days, mostly across the | :46:43. | :46:47. | |
southern half of the UK. Where, once more, by the afternoon, they | :46:47. | :46:50. | |
really will get going with abundance. There will be heavy and | :46:50. | :46:53. | |
thundery ones too. Particularly down towards the Midland and the | :46:53. | :46:57. | |
south-east. Wouldn't rule out a thunderstorm, but not as eye vent | :46:57. | :47:01. | |
as we saw during the course of the die. | :47:01. | :47:05. | |
More showers than today. Across the south west of England, and parts of | :47:05. | :47:09. | |
west Wales, where we have had a lot of sun hien in the last few days. | :47:09. | :47:12. | |
That may -- sunshine in the last few days. A light breeze across the | :47:12. | :47:16. | |
southern half of the UK, a stronger breeze further north. A chilly one | :47:16. | :47:19. | |
too. A fair bit of sunshine for Northern Ireland, temperatures | :47:20. | :47:23. | |
pegged back at 8-10 degrees. For Scotland, cold enough for the | :47:23. | :47:28. | |
showers to be falling as shoe over the high ground in particular. A -- | :47:28. | :47:32. | |
showers over the high ground in particular. Colder this weekend, | :47:32. | :47:36. | |
temperatures struggling to get out as single figures. Showers across | :47:36. | :47:43. | |
the north will be a mixture of rain, sleet and snow. Dry weather and a | :47:43. | :47:47. |