12/04/2012 Newsnight


12/04/2012

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Jeremy Paxman.


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The budget from hell was how one senior Tory described it today. It

:00:13.:00:17.

would be a huge exaggeration to say there is anything like panics in

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the ranks of the Conservative Party, but there is unease at how one

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measure after another seems to be blowing up in their faces.

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A champion of fill thranthropy takes on a Treasury Minister, over

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the Government's plan to cap wealthy people's donations to

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charity. A fragile ceasefire begins in

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ceasefire, but the fear and loathing are far from gone. We will

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hear from the former chief of the general staff, and the wounded

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photographer, recently smuggled out of the country.

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Is the legacy of the Republican race for the presidential

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nomination, a party so obsessed with abortion, that it can no

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longer speak to normal women. all worked up because Hitler killed

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six million, look how he did it, we are allowing it and promoting it.

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And will the world soon be turning to half-a-dozen otherwise

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unconnected countries to find the growth upon which capitalism

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depends more its survival. It is over three weeks since the

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coalition Government's budget, and now another one of its measures

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wreaking political damage, one minute it is pasties and tax breaks

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for the wealthy, now uncovered is deep disquiet in the Conservative

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Party over the plans to cap donations to charity. Even if, as

:01:43.:01:47.

some suspect, the ultimate author of the measure is Nick Clegg, this

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is not the sort of thing MPs expected from George Osborne, who

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is widely thought within the party as being competent.

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Our political editor, Allegra Stratton, is here. How deep is the

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disquiet? I understand from someone who has spoken to the Prime

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Minister about this, that there will be action in the next weeks

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and months, to make the distinction between those genuine donations to

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charity, and those that are a wheeze to get down a tax bill.

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However, we should acknowledge, which we will go on to talk in the

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package. There is a killer sentence in this red book, which is the

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budget, which stipulates they were going to talk to philanthropists in

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the coming months to make sure they did deep down the damage to

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charitable donations. All of that to one side, this is playing to a

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sense, not just on the backbenches, but within Government, you have

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people in the culture ministry that weren't consulted about this

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measure, so there is a minutes from people like Nick Herd that they

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need to be on the attack about this you have the Big Society, central

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to the primal vision, which he think is central to the country,

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with this perceived attack on charities, if it is not a real one.

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Today, ask pretty much any Tory MP how they feel about their

:02:57.:03:01.

leadership, whether they might be prepared, to say, erect a statue to

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the men who run the party, they would cloak on the leftover Easter

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eggs. Only six days before the end of the parliamentary term, the

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Chancellor delivered a budget so heavily prebriefed, it could surely

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have few surprises. In the intervening few weeks, perpetual

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bad surprises makes this an unpopular budget, in the words of

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one senior Conservative, it is the budget from hell. This latest

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surprise to party manages is target today hurt like a boomerang with

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sat-nav. This is the angel of Christian charity, it was put to

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the Earl of Shaftsbury, in the Victorian era, in recognition of

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all of his philanthropy. It is something David Cameron has wanted

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to emulate. The Big Society, would see charities take on the role the

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state had in previous years taken on. With the recent budget move,

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MPs feel this is being made impossible. One MP described it as

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entirely indefensible, another, normal low very loyal MP, said he

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was just waiting for the grown-ups to take over.

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The modern-day attack on philanthropists began like this.

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Months ago the Tories decided to scrap the 50p rate of tax, they

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knew they could only do so if they could show they were getting more

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back in otherwise, Nick Clegg's tycoon tax. Higher rate tax players

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could donate unlimited amounts to charity and offset it against tax.

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Last month the Government sought to cap it, as they felt phantom

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charities were being used. Charities said they would lose �80

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million in donations, Tory MPs weighed in their own side.

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Today Conservative MP, Chris White, was typical of the feeling within

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his party. He urged the Chancellor to have a

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re-think, to have really good thinking, and not damage a sector

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that need to be thriving rather than damaged for others' faults.

:05:03.:05:13.
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One of the first critic was a These Conservatives were riled when

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the Business Secretary this morning, was the first cabinet minister was

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to sanctions a source to brief that he would sanctions a change. A

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source close to Vince Cable said he fullied supported the need to clamp

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down on tax avoidance, but it should be separated from genuine

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charitable giving. As a fundraiser for over 16 years, I would have

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loved a donation of that magnitude in the first place. I recognise

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there are charities that do get that amount of money. It is

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important that they are not suffering, or made to suffer

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because of these changes. So it is important that, and it is crucial,

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that the Government get into dialogue with the charity sector,

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to ensure that doesn't happen. The Victorians celebrated

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philanthropists, another London statue, another figure of the angel

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of charity. Today the Government is maintaining that they too are

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freoints of the philanthropists, if you look at page 33 of this, the

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budget from last month, it says they intend to explore with

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philanthropists ways that it won't impact on charitable giving.

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Cabinet ministers are acknowledging they will have to make sure there

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is a distinction between genuine charitable giving, and those

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seeking to put money into charities as a way of keeping their tax bill

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down. For those more sceptical of the Government's intentions, there

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is echos of how they dealt with another unpopular change, child

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benefit before, the Treasury said it wouldn't do s and then

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introduced a complicated taper system. One idea being discussed

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with charities is to define more clearly with what a charity s and

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impose a cap on charities unrecognised, even if the

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Government's policy is what it says it is, it is a marker of the mood

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in the parliament that stuck. Legend has it the angel has been

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put facing away from Shaftesbury Avenue, that could be for the

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Tories an accurate description of their Government. Cabinet ministers

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insist this is the mid-term blues, the two years into the Government

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when there is hard pounding, and it is just difficult. Others say that

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is not quite true, when they are chasing economic deficit reduction

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and growth it is one thing, when growth looks elusive, who is this

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Government for, who do they stand for?

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Within minutes of it coming from the Chancellor's mouth, it was

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clear they had a problem with the changes they intended to make to

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pensioner allowances. What became known as the granny tax. Within a

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week, revelations about millionaire donors being invited to Number Ten,

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came unhelpfully quickly after a budget that cut the top rate of tax.

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Budget changes to the taxation of pasties were revealed quickly after

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that. Senior Government members were

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found scrambling to remember the last time they had eaten a pasty.

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We have a series of good policies that help working-class people,

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that are designed to help the most vulnerable, not enough people know

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about them. At the moment there are a series of clothes pegs without a

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washing line linking them all together. We need to do a lot more

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to communicate to people that we are the party of the vulnerable,

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and the party for the hard working- classs for aspiration and

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opportunity. For all people inside Government

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think they are damage, they think the damage is not deep. Education

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and welfare reforms show plenty of direction, they say, they also

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point to the upcoming sequence of events, they think Boris Johnson

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wins the London election, and the stories of Labour faring ill in

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London and Glasgow, soon a Queen's Speech and second legislative

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accession, yes, include their critics, elections for the House of

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Lords, which their critics also loathe.

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The statue was paid for by subscription of devoted followers,

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the Tory leadership have heard loud and clear that they have a lot of

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work until the statues are in the - - statutes are in the bag.

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My guests join me now. How many people do you know give

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more than �50,000 or a quarter of their income to charity? I can't

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answer that, the Sunday time's giving list that comes out at the

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end of the month, talking about a quarter of the top 1,000 wealthiest

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people lists are philanthropists, that is knowledgeable, plus another

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quarter, perhaps, also give. They may be philanthropists, they may

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not give a quarter of their income or over �50,000? That is not known.

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We don't know what the loss to charity would be? The estimates

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have been 20%. It is a nice round figure, and maybe people are just

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guessing, what would you think, minister? I think as far as what

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the behavioral impact will be, it is not entirely clear.

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Philanthropists, such as yourself, don't just give because there is a

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tax break there. People give money to charities because they want to

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help a charity. You have done the sums when preparing the budget, how

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much will it bring into the Treasury? The overall package of

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capping reliefs, of which charitable donations is one, will

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bring in �300 million. How much of that by capping charitable

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donations? Roughly, our estimate is between �50hch �100 million

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relating -- �50-�100 million relating to the capping of

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charities. That money would have gone elsewhere? That is money we

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believe should go to the Exchequer. But not to charity? The big point

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here, if I may, is that we don't think it is right that people are

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able to give to charities, or make use of these reliefs, in such a way,

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that they have a very, very low rate of income tax. Indeed in some

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cases they don't pay income tax at all. Everybody should pay some

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income tax. One of the things I found when I was meeting with the

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Treasury, fairly frequently, is they saw tax breaks as lost revenue.

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Where as from the outside, a tax break is an investment in future

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revenue. If you look at it like that, the Treasury is going to lose

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as well as the clairts, if philanthropists -- charities, if

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philanthropists start giving less. They already have started giving

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less, we are having charities ringing up and saying they are

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getting the warning knowss. If people are noblely motivated,

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why will they be less so if they don't get a tax break? It leverages

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what we are doing, I decide what to give to whom at what value, then I

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decide to do it tax efficiently. It makes me feel good, because I'm

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working with the local authorities. Would you give less if you weren't

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getting a tax break? When the paper came out, I wouldn't make any

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difference, but my advisers phoned me and said watch it, this will

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affect you. And one has to be effective as well as efficient.

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wouldn't affect how you behave? Frankly, no. Why should it affect

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anyone else? They have different policies, I'm running out my

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charity. My charity will be given away any way, and so I have put

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everything into the Shirley Foundation, and it is going to come

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out pretty fast. How many people did you consult

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with before deciding upon this measure? We decided upon the

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measure for the very reasons I have outlined, we think it is the right

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thing to do we think it is fair. What we have said, and as was

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pointed out in the report, we said we would consult with charities.

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That is in the small print after saying you will bring in this

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change. You will bring in this change, won't you? We will bring in

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this change, what we have also said is we will explore ways to protect

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those charities dependant on large donations. Did Jeremy Hunt know it

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was going to be in the budget, did Vince Cable know it was going to be

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in the budget, did you know it was going to be in the budget? Yes I

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did. And you agreed with it? think it is fair. I think it is

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unfair if most people are paying income tax at 20% or 40%, and yet

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there are people who are very wealthy, and we are talking about

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some of the wealthiest people in this country, who effectively are

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paying very little in income tax, in some cases not paying income tax

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at all. They may be doing some very, very good things, as Dame Stephaine

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has done, in terms of charitable giving. We think there is a balance

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that needs to be struck between contributing towards charities,

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which people choose to do, and making a contribution towards

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Government and paying for things like the Armed Forces and the NHS

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and so on, all of which need to be paid for by somebody, and actually,

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looking at the list they need to make their contribution. You can

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see the force of the argument, don't you? Absolutely, I think

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really you owe an apology to the philanthropists because you have

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not consulted any. There is a summit scheduled for next month,

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perhaps that might be an opportunity. But in the meantime,

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none of us know what we are doing. People are already approaching the

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charities and saying I may not be able to give you this amount next

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year. To be fair, I have already had a meeting with representatives

:14:29.:14:32.

from some of the charitable organisations. The charities are

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different from the philanthropists. I agree that we need to have

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meetings with charities, with philanthropists, all of that is

:14:42.:14:46.

absolutely right. As we set out, on the day of the budget, we will

:14:46.:14:50.

explore this carefully, we will consult, we will listen. But the

:14:50.:14:55.

broad principle, which we announced, and the policy of a cap on reliefs.

:14:55.:14:59.

We recognise that the tax system should encourage charitable giving,

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the question is, should it be an unlimited relief. Up to now it has

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been very pro. Your request for an apology has not been granted?

:15:09.:15:12.

Indeed not. I'm not giving an apology. Can you help us with

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something else then, the Prime Minister's spokesman said on

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Tuesday, that one of the reasons you were so worried about this, was

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because in some cases the charities didn't do much charitable work. Can

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you tell us what those charities are? No, I can't name them. Because

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don't know? Because of taxpayer confidentiality, and ministers

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don't get informed of this. What I can say is HMRC have advised me

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that there are cases where, for example, you might have a charity

:15:41.:15:44.

where something like �20 million might be put into the charity, but

:15:44.:15:50.

only something like �250,000 is actually spent. It is acting as a

:15:50.:15:53.

charity, but we are not seeing the money spent properly. There are

:15:53.:15:58.

other cases which are clearly flouting the rules. That is

:15:58.:16:01.

something for the Charity Commissioners to engage with, isn't

:16:01.:16:05.

it? It is, and HMRC works very closely with them. In some cases, a

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lot of these charities aren't necessarily regulated by the

:16:08.:16:11.

Charity Commission, because they are based overseas. It is difficult

:16:12.:16:15.

in those circumstances to regulate them. But the particular example I

:16:15.:16:20.

gave there, the Charity Commission would say well it's performing a

:16:20.:16:24.

charitable purpose, but it's not proportionate to the amount of tax

:16:24.:16:28.

relief that the donor has received, putting money into that charity,

:16:28.:16:32.

but not actually seeing very much coming out and benefiting society

:16:32.:16:37.

as a whole. The fact remains no matter how good the tax reliefs are

:16:37.:16:42.

or not, you give much more than you get in relief. These are volunteer

:16:42.:16:45.

givers who choose to invest in social issues. I accept that is the

:16:46.:16:50.

case in the vast majority of the cases. The difficulty is if we end

:16:50.:16:54.

up with a system whereby people are essentially able to take themselves

:16:54.:16:58.

out of the income tax system, we want to take low earners out of the

:16:58.:17:03.

income tax system, it is not right that the very wealthiest can take

:17:03.:17:06.

themselves out. Despite all the gloomy prediction, a ceasefire did

:17:06.:17:11.

happen in Syria today. It is pretty fragile, and the leader of the UN

:17:11.:17:17.

mission there says the Assad has regime has yet to withdraw weapons

:17:17.:17:20.

from urban areas. The secretary- general thinks a sing the shot

:17:20.:17:23.

could wreck the whole thing. But the Russians, Assad's main

:17:23.:17:30.

supporters, say there nai be an unarmed UN force deployed there

:17:30.:17:34.

soon. Bring us up-to-date? I don't think many people dared hope that a

:17:34.:17:38.

ceasefire would take hold at all. It is extremely fragile, but it is

:17:38.:17:42.

really the first let-up Syrians have had since all of this began.

:17:42.:17:45.

Lives have been saved, that is very welcome, obviously, for the people

:17:45.:17:50.

of Syria. But both sides are accusing the other of violating the

:17:50.:17:55.

ceasefire. Syrian state television said a bomb attack in Aleppo had

:17:55.:17:59.

killed an army officer, activist groups say 15 civilians have been

:17:59.:18:02.

killed. We will give awe flavour of some of the videos that have been

:18:02.:18:07.

uploaded by the opposition to YouTube, we can't obviously verify

:18:07.:18:17.
:18:17.:18:22.

them. But this is purportedly the town of Homs today.

:18:22.:18:26.

This is Aleppo, people run ago I way from gunfire, we are not sure

:18:26.:18:28.

of the circumstances, but clearly people are very scared. Elsewhere

:18:28.:18:32.

there are protests that went ahead untroubled. As you can see. But a

:18:32.:18:38.

very clear message, spelled out by students in Aleppo. I hope you are

:18:38.:18:45.

seeing the pictures. They are forming the letters S-O-S? A very

:18:45.:18:48.

clear message to the international community, they don't think the

:18:48.:18:53.

danger is passed. Friday is the Day of Prayer, traditionally the day of

:18:53.:18:56.

protest, since the Arab Spring began. People are expected try to

:18:56.:19:01.

take to the streets en masse, how will the regime respond. Have you

:19:01.:19:07.

spoken to anyone connected with the UN mission there? I have spoken to

:19:07.:19:11.

UN officials in New York. There are discussions at the UN Security

:19:11.:19:15.

Council at the moment over the deployment of UN observers to

:19:15.:19:21.

monitor the truce. There is talk of an advanced team of 30 people who

:19:21.:19:25.

could arrive in the next few days. They could be boosted to a couple

:19:25.:19:28.

of hundred at a later stage. There are UN officials who have been in

:19:29.:19:32.

Syria, led by a Norwegian general, who are negotiating with the

:19:32.:19:35.

authorities there. They have apparently been pretty difficult

:19:35.:19:41.

discussions. But this idea of an observer mission is being seriously

:19:41.:19:44.

talked about. When I spoke to an visor for the secretary-general,

:19:44.:19:48.

Ban Ki-Moon, he said he was hoping for a unanimous vote at the

:19:48.:19:52.

Security Council tomorrow. They might decide it to be a lightly

:19:52.:19:56.

armed force, as peacekeepers are. My guess is in Australian

:19:56.:20:00.

probability they will have mostly side arms for personal protection

:20:00.:20:08.

in some situations T would basically be an unarmed force for

:20:08.:20:12.

prak -- practical purposes. They would be there to observe,

:20:12.:20:16.

facilitate and report back on what is happening on the ground. To make

:20:16.:20:20.

sure that the ceasefire has a bit more feet, and a bit more

:20:20.:20:26.

sustainability than it looks like at the outset.

:20:26.:20:29.

Caroline, within you think about that, and you think about the Arab

:20:29.:20:34.

League mission, also an unarmed bunch of observers, that wasn't a

:20:34.:20:38.

conspicuous success? I was told that lessons had been learned from

:20:38.:20:42.

the ill-fated mission. He said UN observers in place are more

:20:42.:20:45.

experienced, he said they have done this before. He said they had

:20:45.:20:48.

always done this against the odds. The ceasefire is just the first

:20:48.:20:51.

stage, this is meant to lead to a political process, the opposition

:20:51.:21:00.

sitting down with the regime. And UN UN officials are seriously

:21:00.:21:04.

sceptical about the Assad regime's intentions. So far they have shown

:21:04.:21:09.

a strong tendency to think the answer is a military one, that you

:21:09.:21:12.

can crucial your opposition militarily. We don't know that the

:21:12.:21:17.

opposition has a unified platform, can choose people to represent them,

:21:17.:21:21.

and that can come together in an effective and cohesive way. We

:21:22.:21:25.

really don't know those kinds of things. One has to have tempered

:21:25.:21:32.

optimisim at best. To discuss this is the photographer

:21:32.:21:37.

Paul Conroy, injured in the Syrian city in Homs, in the same incident

:21:37.:21:47.
:21:47.:21:48.

that killed the Sunday Times reporter, Marie Colvin, and the

:21:49.:21:57.

former commander of the NATO force in Kosovo. There were less people

:21:57.:22:00.

killed and injured today, that is a good thing? That is a good thing

:22:00.:22:05.

for today. That is one thing. There is a lot of rampent optimisim

:22:05.:22:09.

floating around about the ceasefire. Obviously they would like it to

:22:09.:22:13.

work. Why do you say that? Experience, everyone has looked

:22:13.:22:18.

over the last year at the regime's approach. I was there in Homs when

:22:18.:22:22.

they had the referendum on the new constitution. I sat there in the

:22:22.:22:26.

room while they shelled Homs consistently they gave the soldiers

:22:26.:22:29.

an hour off to vote on the constitution, then it was back to

:22:29.:22:33.

shelling. That is my experience of the regime's approach towards

:22:33.:22:37.

negotiations and democracy. Let's talk about, we will talk

:22:37.:22:41.

about what measures might be taken further than an unarmed mission.

:22:41.:22:45.

First of all, this question of an unarmed mission, would you like to

:22:45.:22:51.

be part of an unarmed UN observer mission in Syria? I wish them very

:22:51.:22:56.

well. I wish the whole mission very well, of course. But my own

:22:56.:23:01.

experience of unarmed observers is not a terribly happy one. They have

:23:01.:23:05.

no power, of course, all they can do is to report. Now, there is a

:23:05.:23:11.

moral, strength to that reporting, if somebody's getting it wrong. But

:23:11.:23:16.

it needs goodwill on both sides to implement such an agreement, and I

:23:16.:23:23.

echo Paul. How confident are we that the Assad regime has goodwill

:23:23.:23:30.

to implementation of this. There is little evidence of any God will

:23:30.:23:34.

there. Do either of you have any suggestions about how the cause of

:23:34.:23:40.

peace mighting advanced there? think it is what sort -- Might be

:23:40.:23:45.

advanced there? I think it is what sort of peace. You have oppression

:23:45.:23:49.

and people beaten into called "peace". I think the genie is out

:23:49.:23:53.

of the bottle. One needs to be careful, with comparisons, they are

:23:53.:23:58.

not always directly helpful, but we have been here before, in other

:23:58.:24:03.

places. Which other places? Libya is an obvious parallel. There was

:24:03.:24:06.

western intervention in Libya? There was western intervention. And

:24:06.:24:12.

one could argue, and I would, that the situation in Syria is at least

:24:12.:24:16.

as bad, arguably worse. Does it justify western intervention?

:24:16.:24:21.

but that depends now on basically the western approach, and indeed,

:24:21.:24:25.

let us not forget, the two members of the Security Council who have

:24:25.:24:31.

always been very shy of intervention, Russia and that.

:24:32.:24:35.

the basis of your experience, and what you saw about how the Syrian

:24:35.:24:39.

Government and forces behaved, what do you advocate? I'm fully in

:24:39.:24:43.

favour of an intervention, I think the whole Annan peace plan depends

:24:43.:24:46.

on the Syrian people putting their trust in this Government. Now they

:24:46.:24:52.

have no reason, I think, to be honest. This is a brutal question.

:24:52.:24:56.

But why is peace in Syria worth putting at risk the life of a

:24:56.:25:02.

single British soldier? I think it boils down to a question of

:25:02.:25:05.

humanity. Are we all prepared to sit around for the next year and

:25:05.:25:09.

watch thousands upon thousands of innocent people slaughtered.

:25:09.:25:12.

you imagine a British Prime Minister standing up and trying to

:25:12.:25:15.

justify that decision? I would certainly like to see a British

:25:16.:25:19.

Prime Minister stand up and try to just foi that decision. Can you see

:25:19.:25:28.

it? You are dammed if you do, and you're dammed if you don't. That is

:25:28.:25:32.

exactly the position regarding Benghazi a yor ago now had we not

:25:32.:25:37.

taken action, -- a year ago, had we not taken action along with allies,

:25:37.:25:42.

there would have been conned dem nation of allowing this brew --

:25:43.:25:46.

condemnation of allowing this brutal inhad you tan me to continue,

:25:46.:25:51.

some people were not -- inhumanity to continue with that. Would you

:25:51.:25:54.

have wanted to see forces committed without knowing the end game and

:25:54.:26:00.

how to get them out? You would have to think through your campaign

:26:00.:26:05.

carefully, we have not always been quite as good at the end game as we

:26:05.:26:08.

should have been. The military campaign would be simple and fast,

:26:08.:26:13.

it is transforming a country after that, that is the real challenge.

:26:13.:26:20.

Do you have a view on that? I would see the intervention, not as a form

:26:20.:26:25.

of arming the rebels and topping them up to overthrowing the regime.

:26:25.:26:32.

I think it is now a case of saving lives, I would like corridors, safe

:26:32.:26:36.

havens, established, on a light humanitarian basis. These people

:26:36.:26:41.

have nowhere to run. It is not like in Libya where there were safe

:26:41.:26:46.

areas people could get to, every inch of Syria is covered with the

:26:47.:26:50.

regime. Now it is a humanitarian need, as opposed to regime change.

:26:50.:26:53.

I think we need to provide some form of that.

:26:53.:26:57.

Thank you very much. Rather unusual happenings in the

:26:58.:27:00.

American presidential race today. Barack Obama's people are letting

:27:00.:27:04.

it be known that they are in complete sympathy with the wife of

:27:04.:27:07.

Mitt Romney, the likely Republican challenger for the White House.

:27:07.:27:11.

They are defending her against Democrat accusations she has never

:27:11.:27:14.

worked because she has been at home raising five boys. It is a mark of

:27:14.:27:17.

how the presidential race is divided. And may be determined,

:27:17.:27:21.

indeed, by gender. Obama has far more support from women, partly

:27:21.:27:26.

because of the remarkable divisions in the US over abortion.

:27:26.:27:30.

As Paul Mason reports, the issue has become charged in a way almost

:27:30.:27:37.

unimaginable in Europe. An abortion clinic in Ohio,

:27:37.:27:41.

protestors come here every day the clinic operates.

:27:41.:27:46.

Inside, for all the intimacy and calm, they can't escape the sound

:27:46.:27:50.

and fury the presidential election has stirred up.

:27:50.:27:55.

Barack Obama voted in favour of legaliseing infantiside. He voted

:27:55.:28:05.

to protect doctors who provide abortion. It is a campaign where

:28:05.:28:08.

each candidate has tried to sound more anti-abortion than less.

:28:08.:28:14.

America has become a country where a talk show host can attack a woman

:28:14.:28:18.

for advocating publicly-funded contraception. She's having so much

:28:19.:28:23.

sex she can't afford the contraception she wants, you and me

:28:23.:28:27.

and the tax-payers paying her to have sex, it makes her a salute,

:28:27.:28:31.

right? These are not just words, last year

:28:31.:28:38.

half of all US states imposed new curbs on abortion. The laws being

:28:38.:28:41.

proposed represent a new radical restriction on abortion.

:28:41.:28:45.

The debate is being conducted in a language that is shocking and

:28:45.:28:48.

extreme. And some Republicans think their party is being dragged so far

:28:48.:28:53.

to the right on this issue, that its prospects in November's

:28:53.:28:59.

election could be seriously compromised.

:28:59.:29:04.

In Ohio, home to rust belt cities, and millions of the post-industrial

:29:04.:29:08.

poor, they are working on one of the most restrictive new laws. If

:29:08.:29:15.

passed, it will ban all abortions, once a heart beat is detected. That

:29:15.:29:21.

is usually about six weeks. strategy is to put those laws in

:29:21.:29:26.

place state-by-state, and erode and destroy access to abortions. That

:29:26.:29:34.

is what's working. Under pressure from protestors,

:29:34.:29:38.

hospitals here no longer perform abortions. This basic facility in

:29:38.:29:42.

Toledo, run by a charity, is the only one for miles around. People

:29:42.:29:47.

who work here say it is the poorest women who need the most help.

:29:47.:29:53.

know that even when it is illegal, women still have done abortions in

:29:53.:29:57.

themselves. They do that at great personal risk. It is not an issue

:29:57.:30:01.

of banning abortion, it is an issue of banning safe and legal abortions.

:30:01.:30:06.

It makes it harder for them to get services. The other thing is it

:30:06.:30:10.

makes it harder for them to fund the services, once they find them,

:30:10.:30:15.

and it makes it, I think it also puts a burden of despair on them.

:30:15.:30:20.

It puts a burden of guilt and shame that they should not have.

:30:20.:30:26.

Texas already enforces something called a transhave a guile nan

:30:26.:30:36.
:30:36.:30:37.

ultra sound, this -- transvaginal ultra sound, this is so a woman can

:30:37.:30:41.

see and hear the foetus before an abortion. When other states tried

:30:41.:30:46.

to follow, the battle wind nationwide. Now to the heated

:30:46.:30:51.

battle over reproductive and abortion rights. Ultra sounds for

:30:51.:30:59.

women seeking an abortion. At which point the Obama administration

:30:59.:31:02.

announced plans to include contraception in its healthcare

:31:02.:31:09.

reforms, and the Republican presidential candidates went appo

:31:09.:31:15.

pletic. Sterilisation, and morning- after bill. You voted for birth

:31:15.:31:19.

control pills. That is what they do, not us. The Obama camp could not

:31:19.:31:23.

have hoped for a more try dent reaction. Among women voters,

:31:23.:31:28.

Republican front runner, Mitt Romney, is already polling up to 18

:31:28.:31:31.

points behind President Obama in battleground states. Senior

:31:31.:31:35.

Republicans feel the tenor of the debate has seriously affected their

:31:35.:31:38.

charity's chances in November. don't think they have handled this

:31:38.:31:41.

too well, let me point out, that they didn't bring this issue up,

:31:41.:31:46.

the President did. I always resist conspiracy theories, but if this

:31:47.:31:51.

was a gambit on the part of the administration, it worked

:31:51.:31:55.

beautifully. Some of our people took the bait. Mitch Daniels was

:31:55.:32:00.

once a serious contender for the pup can party's presidential

:32:00.:32:06.

nomination, he lacked support from the conservative base. He believes

:32:06.:32:12.

the party's focus on these issues could doom them in the elections.

:32:12.:32:17.

Our party could be doing a lot better. Sometimes I say given the

:32:17.:32:21.

failure of the policies, a weak economy, it would be very hard to

:32:21.:32:24.

lose an election to President Obama, but we have just the team that

:32:24.:32:30.

could do it! That's not how it looks in Ohio. Among these rural

:32:30.:32:32.

and middle-class voters, the religious right will take the

:32:33.:32:38.

battle for the party's soul right up to November.

:32:38.:32:42.

This group of Ohio activists lobbies tirelessly for the heart

:32:42.:32:47.

beat bill. The doctor has to actually show the woman the heart

:32:47.:32:52.

beat, on the ultra sound, let her hear the heart beat, if that heart

:32:52.:32:57.

beat is detected then the baby is protected from the abortion. Why is

:32:57.:33:05.

the heart beat so important? over the world, the signal, one

:33:05.:33:08.

important issue of whether or not there is life, is whether or not

:33:08.:33:11.

there is a heart beat. Politically they are purists, they are

:33:11.:33:14.

determined to keep abortion at the centre of the election campaign,

:33:14.:33:19.

regardless of the consequences. The time has come for us to stand

:33:19.:33:24.

up and stand for what's right. would rather lose on the principle

:33:24.:33:29.

issue than win with an alliance of quite conservative people, who just

:33:29.:33:34.

don't share your views on abortion? Yes. It is not political at all.

:33:34.:33:38.

From my vantage point it is a theological issue, so, yes, courage,

:33:38.:33:41.

just take the stand, willing to lose? Yes.

:33:41.:33:46.

We get all worked up because Hitler killed six million, and look how he

:33:46.:33:51.

did it. And we're allowing it, and we're promoting it. Are you

:33:51.:33:56.

comparing it to the Holocaust? is a Holocaust, it is time that

:33:56.:34:00.

America wakes up to the truth. It is genocide. You couldn't then have

:34:00.:34:03.

a political candidate who denied that, it would be like having a

:34:03.:34:09.

Holocaust denial? Exactly. Outside the Toledo clinic, the

:34:09.:34:13.

vigil continues. Inside gynaecologist, Martin Ruddock, has

:34:13.:34:18.

finished work, after a day in which he terminated ten pregnancies. He

:34:18.:34:21.

says there is no medical science behind the new laws, above all, he

:34:21.:34:27.

thinks the ultra sound probe is about pure politics. This is a

:34:28.:34:32.

transvajal probe, in that -- transvaginal probe, the patient

:34:32.:34:37.

needs to be up in stirrups, you need to use a condom for protection

:34:37.:34:41.

and lubricant, you must literally take this lengthy probe, and insert

:34:41.:34:45.

it into the vagina, in order to get an interior view of what's going on.

:34:45.:34:49.

It gives you a different perspective. To mandate the use of

:34:49.:34:55.

this, would be absolute intrusion into women's reproductive care, it

:34:55.:34:59.

is unnecessary in the practice of abortion practice. Why are they

:34:59.:35:03.

doing it? To try to drive doctors away. To make the procedure more

:35:03.:35:08.

expensive, and costly, to scare women away, and basically to put

:35:08.:35:12.

additional obstacles, one after the other, in the path of a woman who

:35:12.:35:20.

is pregnant and doesn't want to be. In some ways this is part of the

:35:20.:35:25.

old culture war between liberals and Conservatives. The result is

:35:25.:35:28.

almost silently, legal abortion for women from the poorest

:35:28.:35:30.

neighbourhoods has become harder and harder.

:35:30.:35:35.

It is in the election, and its effect on how women vote in

:35:35.:35:42.

November, that the debate might have its loudest impact. Now this,

:35:42.:35:48.

as David Attenborough, could have told you, is a civic cattle, so our

:35:48.:35:55.

graphic department imagined. It is best known for secreting the musk

:35:55.:35:58.

in perfumes, and the coffee beans, said to make a sensational kick

:35:58.:36:06.

start. If you are an economy, or a banker, it is used as an acronym of

:36:06.:36:15.

some of the new economies, Egypt, turkey, Brazilians, the acronym is

:36:15.:36:21.

less agile, but we like it a lot more. A BRIC is a strong and robust

:36:21.:36:26.

object, CIVIT is a meek mammal, whose oder is used to make perfume,

:36:26.:36:32.

believe it or not. It is the smell of money that has said the CIVET

:36:32.:36:37.

more came mus. Columbia, Indonesia, Vietnam, turkey, South Africa and

:36:37.:36:43.

Egypt, all touted as the next waive of emerging economies, that could,

:36:43.:36:47.

we stress the conditional, could match in terms of growth, but not

:36:47.:36:52.

scale. What could unite, one south American, two African and three

:36:52.:36:55.

Asian countries, separated by vast differences, as well as historical

:36:55.:36:59.

and financial backgrounds. They all have young educated populations, 28

:36:59.:37:04.

is the median age, in Britain it is 40, and for Germany, Italy and

:37:04.:37:08.

Japan, it is a more elderly 44. Youth and especially a trained one,

:37:08.:37:12.

matters in a growing economy, it means you are producing a stream of

:37:12.:37:15.

wealth creators, or at least consumers of goods and services.

:37:15.:37:22.

And the other unifying factor for CIVETs is growth itself, land and

:37:22.:37:25.

labour is cheap, and they have grown rapid low by our standards

:37:25.:37:28.

over the past years. It is the combination of growth and youth,

:37:28.:37:33.

which has led to a boom in foreign- led investment in these countries.

:37:33.:37:37.

It is who do we look to next, who are the other economies that share

:37:37.:37:40.

the characteristics of a very low level of development, but really

:37:40.:37:44.

good foundations, good fundamentals, so they will grow rapidly in the

:37:44.:37:47.

next few years. That have the potential, we think, to grow

:37:47.:37:52.

rapidly, not just for a few years, but for a few decades ahead.

:37:52.:37:55.

Certainly by far outpacing the rates of growth that we are going

:37:55.:37:59.

to be seeing here in the western world. We could look at all six

:37:59.:38:03.

countries, but to save time let's look at three. Colomboia has come a

:38:03.:38:09.

long way from being a by-word for kidnapping and cocaine, a civil war

:38:09.:38:13.

has fizzled out, main export is oil and coffee. Two commodities that

:38:13.:38:17.

have soared in price of late. The Colomboians have worked hard to

:38:17.:38:22.

inprom their corporate governance, that is paying off. Growth is

:38:22.:38:31.

averageing between 5-6% a year. American companies alone invest $7

:38:31.:38:36.

billion in 2010. Turkey has long promised, but only now is

:38:36.:38:40.

delivering. Check where your shirt was made, chances are it is turkey,

:38:40.:38:49.

so too your washing machine. Turkey also makes cars, 1.1 million in

:38:49.:38:56.

2010, in joint global ventures with Fiat and Toyota. It is thought to

:38:56.:39:02.

grow 10% this year. Turkey had serious crises in the past, it has

:39:02.:39:08.

come through that, has credible policy, and is very actively

:39:08.:39:12.

attracting investment and boosting growth as a result of that. The

:39:12.:39:15.

other interesting one is Indonesia, still a country that has an awful

:39:15.:39:22.

lot of development to do. It is still very split in terms of parts

:39:22.:39:26.

of it wealthy and parts of it poor. A country that has huge potential

:39:26.:39:30.

going forward. Particularly in the region in Asia linked to China and

:39:30.:39:35.

India both on its doorstep. David Cameron was on that doorstep this

:39:35.:39:38.

week, Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world. With

:39:38.:39:41.

an economic potential to match. Like its neighbours in Australia,

:39:41.:39:47.

it has made hey on the back of an abundance of commodities, tin and

:39:47.:39:51.

natural gas. It is the 11th-largest gas producer in the world. Its

:39:51.:39:56.

young, mostly secular population has acquired a taste for shopping.

:39:56.:40:00.

However attractive this group of nations are, they are a risky bet.

:40:00.:40:05.

Most of the six countries aren't even considered investment grade by

:40:05.:40:09.

the cred date rating agencies. Doing business is not straight

:40:09.:40:12.

forward, democracy and accountability is new, if it exists

:40:12.:40:19.

at all. Company law is sketchy, and punishments for what we consider

:40:19.:40:21.

minor infringements can be draconian in some places. There is

:40:21.:40:26.

the threat of civil unrest and outright war even. A year after

:40:26.:40:31.

Israel was included in the -- Egypt was included in the list, it had a

:40:31.:40:36.

major revolution and investment dried up for six months. You can't

:40:36.:40:40.

say such events won't happen elsewhere, if a caveat applied it

:40:40.:40:49.

is to the CIVETs. Here to explain more is the Colombian ambassador,

:40:49.:40:59.

and a risk consultant at the your racialia group. Is this -- E URAISA

:40:59.:41:08.

group. It was created by and after a thorough analysis of political

:41:08.:41:12.

and social variables, it has a lot of potential in the facts, the

:41:12.:41:17.

recent history proves that the economist is right in forecasting a

:41:17.:41:22.

high growth rate for our economies. What do you have in common with

:41:22.:41:26.

Egypt? We have a large young population. They had a growth rate

:41:26.:41:32.

of less than 1% last year, 2% predicted for this year? The IMF

:41:32.:41:36.

forecast as growth rate between 4- 6% for the coming three years in

:41:36.:41:40.

Egypt. I agree that there is the potential for that kind of growth

:41:40.:41:44.

rate. What do you make of this idea?

:41:44.:41:50.

a bit more sceptical, I share the view that some of these countries

:41:50.:41:55.

share a favourable growth outlook, but the acronym, I'm more on the

:41:55.:41:59.

gimmick side, for a couple of reasons. First of all, it occurs to

:41:59.:42:04.

me what are the commonalties between these countries, moving

:42:04.:42:12.

from Indonesia 250 million, to Columbia 46 million. Second, why

:42:12.:42:17.

Egypt is in this group? The gross outlook for Egypt is not that --

:42:17.:42:20.

the growth outlook is not that favourable. The assumption that

:42:21.:42:25.

Egypt has good fundamentals is questionable. We could also ask why

:42:25.:42:29.

some countries aren't in this group? Why isn't Mexico in there,

:42:30.:42:36.

why isn't Malaysia in there, for example? I agree Mexico should be

:42:36.:42:40.

included. Maybe it is a bit more difficult to get some gimmick

:42:40.:42:43.

acronym if you put in too many countries? It is always difficult

:42:43.:42:48.

to choose which countries to put in, which countries to leave out of

:42:48.:42:52.

these catagories. But I agree that Mexico should be included there. It

:42:52.:42:59.

has a huge population, a very large GDP, and it has solid institutions,

:42:59.:43:03.

and I hope that they will continue doing well in the economic terms.

:43:03.:43:09.

Do you have any plans for a CIVETs convention or group? Yes. You are

:43:09.:43:14.

going to start to try acting as a group? We have been talking to the

:43:14.:43:18.

prime ministers of these countries, our finance ministers are working

:43:18.:43:22.

together in defining strategies. What will you hope to do? We hope

:43:22.:43:26.

to have a common plan to promote investment in our countries. Both

:43:27.:43:30.

domestic and foreign investment. For example, in Columbia, foreign

:43:30.:43:34.

investment has multiplied by ten in the past ten years. Would you

:43:35.:43:38.

invest in these countries? Certainly in some of them.

:43:38.:43:42.

Indonesia, countries like that, countries like Turkey, South Africa,

:43:42.:43:46.

Vietnam, they do enjoy a favourable economic outlook, there is no doubt

:43:46.:43:50.

about that. The question is, once you put them in the same basket,

:43:50.:43:55.

tough make the case for that. The case, in my view, is a fairly weak

:43:55.:44:00.

case. Leaving aside creating the acronym, the fundamentals are not

:44:00.:44:04.

there. The question is why Mexico isn't there, and why Egypt is in

:44:04.:44:08.

the group. You may say that they suffer from a

:44:08.:44:12.

silly name, perhaps, you could make all sorts of accusations, what you

:44:12.:44:15.

can't argue with is their rate of growth. You look at the rate of

:44:15.:44:19.

growth in this country. It is less than 1%. The rate of growth across

:44:19.:44:22.

Europe, and you compare it with these countries. They are going

:44:22.:44:27.

places, we are not? Absolutely. There is no question about that.

:44:27.:44:32.

They all share, as it was said at the beginning, a favourable

:44:32.:44:35.

economic outlook, there is no dispute about that. There are

:44:35.:44:38.

significant challenges, even for a country like Columbia, which has

:44:38.:44:42.

done very well over the past few years. With a significant take off.

:44:42.:44:45.

There is a challenge there, how you manage all this new wealth. What

:44:45.:44:48.

does it mean in terms of controlling inflation, what does it

:44:48.:44:52.

mean in terms of controlling the rate of exchange, and so on. There

:44:52.:44:57.

is a challenge there, growth is certainly good, but it comes with

:44:57.:44:59.

challenges. Have you got any advice you would

:44:59.:45:03.

like to give us? Jeremy, if you had invested in the Colombian stock

:45:03.:45:09.

exchange ten years ago, your investment today would be worth 15-

:45:09.:45:15.

times, but it is not too late, you can already invest now and get

:45:15.:45:20.

healthy returns in the coming years. Would you invest in the Colombian

:45:20.:45:27.

stock exchange? Lots of them do. Against your advice? Not at all.

:45:27.:45:30.

The issue I'm not questioning is the growth of the country, it is

:45:30.:45:34.

putting them all in the same basket. That is the key question. Not the

:45:34.:45:39.

question of the growth outlook. Thank you very much. Teapots across

:45:39.:45:44.

the Midlands were rattled by what the MoD revealed was the sonic boom

:45:44.:45:52.

of a typhoon aircraft. People swamped the emergency siss after

:45:52.:45:58.

supersonic was set off after emergency calls from a helicopter.

:45:58.:46:08.
:46:08.:46:10.

The last time was in 19 47. There she goes, a big moment, in a

:46:10.:46:17.

history-making flight. Now she raes approaching the

:46:17.:46:22.

barrier, the -- she's approaching the barrier. 60 miles per hour. The

:46:22.:46:27.

really big moment. Through the sound barrier, the

:46:27.:46:37.
:46:37.:46:37.

Chilly weekend coming up, sunshine to compensate.

:46:38.:46:40.

Very chilly start to the day tomorrow. Showers will develop,

:46:40.:46:43.

just as we have seen over the last few days, mostly across the

:46:43.:46:47.

southern half of the UK. Where, once more, by the afternoon, they

:46:47.:46:50.

really will get going with abundance. There will be heavy and

:46:50.:46:53.

thundery ones too. Particularly down towards the Midland and the

:46:53.:46:57.

south-east. Wouldn't rule out a thunderstorm, but not as eye vent

:46:57.:47:01.

as we saw during the course of the die.

:47:01.:47:05.

More showers than today. Across the south west of England, and parts of

:47:05.:47:09.

west Wales, where we have had a lot of sun hien in the last few days.

:47:09.:47:12.

That may -- sunshine in the last few days. A light breeze across the

:47:12.:47:16.

southern half of the UK, a stronger breeze further north. A chilly one

:47:16.:47:19.

too. A fair bit of sunshine for Northern Ireland, temperatures

:47:20.:47:23.

pegged back at 8-10 degrees. For Scotland, cold enough for the

:47:23.:47:28.

showers to be falling as shoe over the high ground in particular. A --

:47:28.:47:32.

showers over the high ground in particular. Colder this weekend,

:47:32.:47:36.

temperatures struggling to get out as single figures. Showers across

:47:36.:47:43.

the north will be a mixture of rain, sleet and snow. Dry weather and a

:47:43.:47:47.

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