23/04/2012 Newsnight


23/04/2012

Can the Eurozone cope with French elections? Will plans to reform the Lords survive? Is the Norwegian televised murder trial a good idea? With Emily Maitlis.


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Transcript


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This programme includes flash photography.

:00:11.:00:14.

Have the technocrats lost control of Europe, the French have voted

:00:14.:00:18.

against austerity, the markets are in turmoil.

:00:18.:00:20.

Six million cast their votes for the French far right. We will talk

:00:20.:00:25.

to one of its leading members. The Dutch Government has collapsed,

:00:25.:00:29.

others are in peril, where does this leave the eurozone's grand

:00:29.:00:34.

plan. In France, so influential in European politics, and incumbent

:00:34.:00:38.

President, who promised austerity, is floundering, while those who

:00:38.:00:42.

seem to say it doesn't have to be that bad, have prospered at the

:00:42.:00:45.

polls. As the economic indicators nose

:00:45.:00:52.

dive, for much of the eurozone, there is only recession ahead. The

:00:52.:00:55.

unelected law makers in the House of Lords are faced with reform

:00:55.:00:59.

again, don't hold your breath. Here are all the successful acts of

:00:59.:01:04.

parliament, if you want to seat unsuccessful attempts to reform the

:01:04.:01:07.

House of Lords, you would need a room twice as big.

:01:07.:01:11.

We have the minister responsible for this can of worms, and the peer

:01:11.:01:20.

who formerly led the liberals. Also: a mass murderer on prime time

:01:20.:01:27.

TV, are the Norwegians right to let Breivik rule the airways, we ask if

:01:28.:01:34.

Scandinavian liberalism is the way ahead.

:01:34.:01:41.

Good evening, like a good old fashioned horror film, the eurozone

:01:41.:01:47.

blockbusters get bigger and brasher. On the eve of the French election

:01:47.:01:53.

results put a man who doesn't believe in austerity in the lead.

:01:53.:01:56.

Six million voters voted for the far right.

:01:56.:02:01.

The Dutch Government has resigned, the Czech Government is in peril

:02:01.:02:04.

too, is this the end of the centre right dominance in Europe, where

:02:05.:02:09.

does it leave hopes of a UK recovery.

:02:09.:02:14.

If Nicolas Sarkozy was just running on his record, his task would be

:02:14.:02:17.

difficult enough. Millions of French people blame him for what

:02:17.:02:23.

they call the bling-style of presidency, for fail to go protect

:02:23.:02:27.

jobs, and running huge public sector deficits. Of course, it is

:02:27.:02:32.

the future he appears to promise, by signingp to that fiscal EU

:02:32.:02:35.

budget deal, which limits the way Governments can spend money, and

:02:35.:02:39.

puts all sorts of sanctions in place, that is his real political

:02:39.:02:42.

problem now. The other key candidates in this election seem to

:02:42.:02:45.

be promising the people it really doesn't have to be that way. And

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over the past 24 hours, we have seen, that a big majority of the

:02:50.:03:00.

electorate seems to buy that argument.

:03:00.:03:04.

Extreme politics and extreme weather, an incumbent President

:03:04.:03:08.

seems to be swept away, and some ideas about France's position in

:03:08.:03:13.

Europe with him. After the polls closed on the first round of voting,

:03:13.:03:19.

crowds of supporters gathered at Socialist Party headquarters. Their

:03:19.:03:22.

leaders' predict they will win, and recast the European debate about

:03:22.:03:29.

how to beat recession, and mass unemployment.

:03:29.:03:36.

The vote and the majority of the people want a new economic dynamic

:03:36.:03:41.

created in Europe, especially in France. It is sure. We don't accept

:03:41.:03:47.

this situation, concerning industry, concerning salaries, concerning

:03:47.:03:57.
:03:57.:03:59.

employment. We have to change. They extol the country's

:03:59.:04:07.

revolutionary ideals and the struggle for social justice.

:04:07.:04:12.

Facing the choice of Government cups, or deeper economic pain, the

:04:12.:04:16.

French have voted for neither of the above. Each candidate has a

:04:16.:04:20.

different formula of how exactly the country should now push ahead,

:04:20.:04:24.

and the results, when they came in the early hours, showed opinion

:04:24.:04:34.
:04:34.:04:39.

polarised. Francois Hollande, the socialist

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won with 28.6%, Nicolas Sarkozy came second with 267.2%, Marine Le

:04:45.:04:55.
:04:55.:05:06.

Hollande and Melenchon essentially believe in borrowing their way out

:05:06.:05:11.

of recession, Le Pen, in leaving the euro, Monsieur Sarkozy

:05:11.:05:16.

campaigned for following the EU's new rules, but suffered for it.

:05:16.:05:19.

So the result service notice to Brussels, Berlin, Europe more

:05:19.:05:24.

widely, that the system of political management, Merkozy,

:05:25.:05:28.

Franco German domination of the politics of the eurozone, and

:05:28.:05:32.

indeed their ideas on austerity, may all be on borrowed time.

:05:32.:05:39.

But, of course, the socialist activists here, at Monsieur

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Hollande's headquarters, are not taking victory for qant granted,

:05:43.:05:49.

they are setting out to win that second round decisively. Today the

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socialist leader was in Brittany, fighting on what is a now two-horse

:05:55.:06:00.

race with the President. The socialists did well in this

:06:00.:06:05.

region, but so did the National Front. Now madame Le Pen south of

:06:05.:06:11.

the race, he's trying to get some of her votes.

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TRANSLATION: If I become the next president, I will continue to do

:06:19.:06:23.

what I do now, to come and talk to you and listen, because you have

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given me important messages, on work, school and health.

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Mr Sarkozy returned to the stump today as well, having suffered the

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shame of being the first incumbent President to lose the first round

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of IRA election campaign -- a re- election campaign. Is his prestige

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fatally damaged, he's moving right wards, also trying to get National

:06:45.:06:48.

Front votes, but Marine Le Pen is not in the mood to do him any

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favours. TRANSLATION: I no longer believe in what Nicolas Sarkozy

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says. There is many voters who trusted me and showed dignity and

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strength in voting for me, they also don't believe in his postures

:06:59.:07:04.

and his promises. So will Le Pen's voters now go to the centre right,

:07:04.:07:12.

and Sarkozy? It doesn't usually poll voters to go for the right,

:07:12.:07:16.

they don't make any suggestions, or they call for abstention, it is

:07:16.:07:22.

likely they will do the same again. Which means that the electorate

:07:22.:07:26.

will probably go maybe up to half to Sarkozy, maybe less than that,

:07:26.:07:31.

and then spread between abstention and Hollande. You have to remember

:07:31.:07:36.

that theers of the National Front are usually not liking Sarkozy.

:07:36.:07:40.

There is a strong position. But also a number of them are strongly

:07:40.:07:45.

disappointed by Sarkozy. Hoping to find some suitably right-

:07:45.:07:49.

wing cabbies, we dropped in at this taxi haunt, but found them in

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moderate mood, wanting to vote for the man they expected to do more to

:07:53.:08:01.

protect the economy. TRANSLATION: I haven't decided how

:08:01.:08:04.

to vote, I will wait and see what they both propose over the next two

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weeks. TRANSLATION: I'm anti-Sarkozy, I'm

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voting Hollande. I think he will bring a new flair to the country, a

:08:15.:08:20.

change for the French people. Mr Sarkozy is stepping up his

:08:20.:08:24.

campaign messages, on themes like immigration, the control of

:08:24.:08:27.

national borders, things he hopes will gain him those far right

:08:27.:08:33.

voters. But will it be enough to close the gap with Monsieur

:08:33.:08:37.

Hollande? Almost nobody outside the President's campaign thinks it will.

:08:37.:08:42.

The socialist has an advantage of 10% in the polls, even 12% in some.

:08:42.:08:48.

And there is a view that means he cannot be beaten at this stage of

:08:48.:08:51.

the election. There has been plenty of negative

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campaigning already, and it could easily become nastier during the

:08:55.:08:58.

second round. If the left, as expected, wins, it will have to

:08:58.:09:04.

live with a newly-empowered far right, that represents positions on

:09:04.:09:08.

immigration or Europe that have, up to now, been kept out of the

:09:08.:09:14.

mainstream by the French political elite.

:09:14.:09:24.
:09:24.:09:26.

I have been speaking to a member of the Front Nationial. Why did six

:09:26.:09:30.

million French people vote for your party? I think they have come to

:09:30.:09:37.

realise that not only did we put forward the good questions, as even

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a former socialist Prime Minister recognised, Mr Laurent Fabius, but

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that we also got the good answers to these questions. The what was

:09:47.:09:53.

that, was it rejection of the euro, was it rejection of immigration?

:09:53.:10:01.

I think it is rejection of what you could call the decadence of France,

:10:01.:10:07.

but not only France but maybe also of some other countries in western

:10:07.:10:15.

Europe. That is a loss of independence, declining of the

:10:15.:10:20.

identity, given the massive immigration policies, that is for

:10:20.:10:30.
:10:30.:10:30.

sure. Also because of globalism, that unemployment is increasing,

:10:30.:10:34.

jobs going elsewhere. You have split the vote on the right, do you

:10:34.:10:38.

really prefer to see President Hollande instead of President

:10:38.:10:43.

Sarkozy? We did consider that the called progressives didn't bring

:10:43.:10:48.

any progress, and the called Conservatives did not conserve

:10:48.:10:53.

anything of our inheritance, cultural, political, economic

:10:53.:10:56.

inheritance. That is why we disagree with both. What should

:10:56.:11:01.

your voters do on the 6th of May in the second round? I think they will

:11:01.:11:09.

listen to what Marine Le Pen will say, on May 1st. But I doubt, very

:11:09.:11:15.

frankly speaking, that you will ask our people to vote either for Mr

:11:15.:11:20.

Sarkozy nor for Mr Hollande. What will be, then, the relationship now

:11:20.:11:28.

between your country, France, and Germany? We will have to be

:11:28.:11:32.

independent. I have, we have nothing against Germany, and we are

:11:32.:11:37.

happy to have at least a peaceful relationship with Germany, but I

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think the interests of Germany are not necessarily our's. I don't know

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if the economic or financial policy of the strong mark may be that it

:11:52.:11:57.

fits German interests. Mr Gollnisch, in 2007, you yourself

:11:57.:12:02.

were convicted for contesting the existence of gas chambers and the

:12:02.:12:07.

number of deaths in the Holocaust, can you see why the world is uneasy

:12:07.:12:15.

with your party? Sorry, you are completely mistaken. The Supreme

:12:15.:12:22.

Court of my country, the 11 judges stated very clearly that I was

:12:22.:12:27.

completely innocent. They wiped out all accusations against me, and

:12:27.:12:33.

they stated very clearly that I had been prosecuted on the basis of a

:12:33.:12:37.

forgery. Thank you very much indeed. You are welcome.

:12:37.:12:41.

Paul Mason, our economics editor, is here with me now.

:12:41.:12:45.

It looks like there is more political crisis coming from the

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Netherlands tonight, prompted by Europe. Where are we going with

:12:48.:12:52.

this? We have to roll back the film a bit, to last December. When they

:12:52.:12:56.

came up with the plan to save Europe. And part of it was pumping

:12:56.:13:01.

money in from the Central Bank, and part of it was this new treaty, the

:13:01.:13:06.

one that Cameron, remember, vetoed, they had to do it as a separate

:13:06.:13:10.

treaty, it says no more discretionary fiscal stimulus,

:13:10.:13:15.

instant austerity. We have the basic of it here. 06% of GDP debt

:13:15.:13:19.

limit, they have to impose that. They have to stick by the old

:13:19.:13:23.

Maastricht rules, and make them tighter. Essentially you can't do

:13:23.:13:28.

fiscal stimulus, the structural deficit can never be more than 0.5%

:13:28.:13:33.

of GDP. You can't do what Obama, and Alastair Darling did,

:13:33.:13:40.

stimulating the economy. Hollande said he would renegotiate that, if

:13:40.:13:44.

he win. He then rolled back from it saying he would make additions to

:13:44.:13:48.

it. Tonight the Dutch Government has fallen because it tried to

:13:48.:13:52.

implement this by 2014, they all are. And the far right there,

:13:52.:13:55.

supporting the Conservative-led Government, pulled out of the

:13:55.:13:57.

Government, because they wouldn't make social security cuts. So the

:13:57.:14:01.

whole thing is now a mess, the Czech Government, also, teetering,

:14:02.:14:06.

on the whole brink of trying to to this. But it is a dead letter, it

:14:06.:14:11.

is something the Germans will very quickly, as the markets already

:14:11.:14:14.

have, have to get their heads around. If you separate out the

:14:14.:14:17.

politics for a second, real concerns about the economy itself

:14:17.:14:21.

now? The eurozone shrank in the last three months of last year. We

:14:21.:14:26.

think it has probble shrunk in the first three months of this year,

:14:26.:14:34.

today's statistic tis -- statistics say it is probably shrinking in the

:14:34.:14:39.

second quarter. We are looking at a whole year's worth of stagnation

:14:39.:14:44.

and recession in the eurozone. The Spanish Central Bank confirmed it

:14:44.:14:47.

is officially in recession. In the face of it, what does Hollande

:14:47.:14:52.

stand for? Hollande stands for spending more, he stands for taxing

:14:52.:14:57.

people more. He has promised to balance the books, but later, to do

:14:57.:15:01.

the austerity later. It is the he wants to balance the books, which

:15:01.:15:05.

completely flies in the face of the way most of the financial markets

:15:05.:15:08.

and bankers want, which is austerity. Where next? The Greek

:15:08.:15:12.

elections, 6th of May, on the current standing the combined votes

:15:12.:15:19.

of the elive lent of Labour and the Tories, are 36% in the polls, and

:15:19.:15:27.

the communists and Trotskyists are 36%, we will be talking about a

:15:27.:15:29.

different extreme in European politics there.

:15:29.:15:33.

How do the rest of Europe feel about the French result, they don't

:15:33.:15:37.

claim to be a representative cross section, we have brought together,

:15:37.:15:41.

Peter Altmaier, Angela Merkel's Chief Whip from Berlin, Nigel

:15:41.:15:47.

Farage, leader of UKIP, and Keith Mangan, senior leader of the bank

:15:47.:15:53.

UBS. How big a moment do you believe this is? It is quite

:15:53.:15:56.

significant. Your package has clearly explored the way in which

:15:56.:16:02.

the votes have split about almost a third of French voters went more

:16:02.:16:05.

parties of the more extreme left and right. So the battling over

:16:05.:16:08.

these votes, particularly for the National Front parties' votes, I

:16:08.:16:12.

think, will drive the French political debate towards an even

:16:12.:16:19.

stronger tone of nationalism, and anti-austerity. This is quite

:16:19.:16:22.

destablising. I'm not saying this will cause an imminent eruption in

:16:22.:16:27.

Europe, but it is certainly detablising against an already very

:16:28.:16:33.

unstable economic backdrop. Peter Altmaier, clearly it isn't in

:16:33.:16:38.

the bag for Francois Hollande, but how much do you think would change

:16:38.:16:44.

under his presidency, relations with Germany? First of all the

:16:44.:16:48.

presidential race is far from being over. Nicolas Sarkozy is a fighter

:16:48.:16:55.

and he will fight on. But even if the outcome of the second tour

:16:55.:17:02.

would be different I suppose that, at the end of the day, I cannot see

:17:02.:17:08.

any working functioning alternative to what was decided by the European

:17:08.:17:15.

Summit in November, as soon as Mr Would start spending more,

:17:16.:17:19.

disregarding the principles, he would be punished by the financial

:17:19.:17:24.

markets. Therefore, I'm quite optimistic that after a while we

:17:24.:17:29.

can continue in consolidating, instead of making and allowing more

:17:29.:17:34.

public deficit than we can pay back. Let me get this straight, would you

:17:34.:17:39.

be scared of an Hollande presidency, or do you think it would end up

:17:39.:17:46.

being exactly the same? Well, first of all, as a Christian democrat, I

:17:46.:17:51.

would be very much in favour of a winning of Mr Sarkozy, but if Mr

:17:51.:17:54.

Hollande, at the end of the day, would become the new French

:17:54.:17:59.

President, it wouldn't change, of course, fundamentally the Franco

:17:59.:18:05.

German relationship, this has worked independently of all

:18:05.:18:10.

political constellations. Secondly, it is quite clear the Fiscal

:18:10.:18:15.

Compact cannot be changed, retro actively, it is under way for

:18:15.:18:20.

ratificaton in many member states. And so, perhaps we will have some

:18:20.:18:25.

debates, internally, in France, but I cannot see the risk of any major

:18:25.:18:29.

change in European economic politics.

:18:29.:18:34.

We will come back to that, Nigel Farage, when you look at the French

:18:34.:18:38.

political scene, as it stands today. When you see the National Front in

:18:38.:18:42.

France doing well. What do you think? I think Marine Le Pen has

:18:42.:18:47.

tried to change the National Front, and take it away from debating race,

:18:47.:18:55.

and take it away from this awful anti-semitism that seemed to

:18:55.:18:58.

permeate it. She has been campaigning on the fact that she

:18:58.:19:03.

wants France to leave the euro. She has a sneaking admiration among

:19:03.:19:07.

many Conservative figures in France. If Hollande does win, two things

:19:07.:19:11.

happen, firstly, the huge competitive gap between France and

:19:11.:19:16.

Germany gets wider, and in fact, the debate about the future of the

:19:16.:19:20.

euro won't be between Germany versus Greece, it will be Germany

:19:20.:19:25.

versus France. Secondly, she will be the ability, if Sarkozy loses,

:19:25.:19:28.

to completely reconfigure Conservative politics in France.

:19:28.:19:34.

you think she has shred the party of the Zen know phobic image, do

:19:34.:19:37.

you see her as a kindred spirit? don't think the National Front can

:19:37.:19:43.

get rid of that horrible, anti- semetic, deeply racist past, I do

:19:43.:19:47.

know from skrfr friends of mine in France, that if -- Conservative

:19:47.:19:51.

friends of mine in France, if she was to leave the National Front,

:19:51.:19:54.

and set up a new party in the wake of the Sarkozy loss, then you would

:19:54.:20:00.

find a real, genuine, big euro- sceptic party, in France. The

:20:00.:20:04.

Franco German pact is what has kept this whole thing together. I think

:20:04.:20:09.

really for the euro and for the European project, the game is up.

:20:09.:20:16.

When she talks about, as the speaker earlier did, about loss of

:20:16.:20:20.

identity, those being the things that people voted for them, those

:20:20.:20:24.

are issues close to your heart? Very close. I don't support the

:20:24.:20:28.

National Front, or her father, or Bruno Gollnisch, and I never have,

:20:28.:20:33.

I know what she tried to do, and she said so herself, is to take the

:20:33.:20:37.

National Front from being the BNP and turning it into UKIP. She has

:20:37.:20:41.

said that herself. I admire what she has tried to do, I think she's

:20:41.:20:45.

a bigger front than the National Front, and if she breaks away from

:20:45.:20:52.

it and has a genuine, non-sectarian, non-racist party in France, I will

:20:52.:20:59.

cheer to the rafters. If Hollande, George Magnus, wants to leave

:20:59.:21:02.

austerity behind, as you suggested, could it be that France alliance

:21:02.:21:05.

itself much more closely with southern Europe, with those

:21:05.:21:09.

neighbours like Spain and Italy, who have rejected it? I'm not quite

:21:09.:21:13.

sure which way the cause and effect works, my understanding, certainly,

:21:13.:21:18.

is that a lot of politicians in Italy, Portugal, Spain, Greece,

:21:18.:21:22.

elsewhere, actually who have been willing an Hollande victory,

:21:22.:21:28.

because his victory could act as a lightning rod, for this general

:21:28.:21:33.

disaffection with the politics of austerity. I mean, that in itself

:21:33.:21:39.

is a different issue. It's possible that Hollande could articulate that

:21:39.:21:45.

view on behalf of more and more European countries, in what clearly

:21:45.:21:49.

might leave Germany a little bit isolated now, particularly with the

:21:49.:21:53.

Dutch Government having fallen. is very difficult that, you might

:21:53.:22:01.

have been living in cuckoo hand, talking about austerity as if --

:22:01.:22:03.

cuckoo land, talking about austerity as if it is the only way,

:22:03.:22:07.

and the people around Europe are saying no to it? It was clear from

:22:07.:22:09.

the beginning this was a very difficult process indeed. But my

:22:09.:22:15.

impression is to the contrary, the new Governments in Italy and Spain

:22:15.:22:21.

and Portugal have made the basic choice in favour of reforming of

:22:21.:22:23.

regaining competitiveity, of restructuring the country, of

:22:23.:22:27.

bringing down the deficit. What do you make of the Dutch and the

:22:27.:22:31.

Czechs tonight? Well, if Mr Hollande would change, would try to

:22:32.:22:36.

change that strategy, I cannot see how this could work, already today

:22:36.:22:45.

all the money is flooding back to Germany, we have spreads where

:22:45.:22:49.

Germany can borrow for 1.6% for ten years, the money it needs, other

:22:49.:22:58.

countries have to pay up to 4% more. This is an indication of trust of

:22:58.:23:00.

financial markets. You cannot survive without the trust of the

:23:00.:23:06.

financial markets. I think this sort of dysfunction in European

:23:06.:23:08.

financial markets is very much about the fact that the markets

:23:08.:23:13.

actually, they are not willing austerity in other countries. That

:23:13.:23:16.

may have been the case a year or two in Greece, but actually they

:23:16.:23:22.

are frightened by what austerity will lead to in terms of the

:23:22.:23:25.

viability and the stability of political systems. So I think you

:23:25.:23:31.

know, what Hollande, if Hollande is elected, I'm not sure it is much

:23:31.:23:34.

better under Sarkozy, but if Hollande actually becomes the

:23:34.:23:39.

President, that is why I feel he may well feel with momentum behind

:23:39.:23:43.

him that this is a moment, to basically launch, as it were, an

:23:43.:23:50.

anti-austerity alliance in Europe. If there was an anti-euro alliance,

:23:50.:23:54.

you would cheer it to the rafters, what would Europe look like with

:23:54.:24:00.

Marine Le Pen around the table, with others, if the euro collapsed

:24:00.:24:04.

and your dream came true, it would be a mess? Let's think of a Europe

:24:04.:24:08.

with democratic nation states not being dominated by German economic

:24:08.:24:12.

policy, or unelected bureaucrats based in Brussels. We could trade

:24:12.:24:16.

together, we could co-operate together, we could have mutual

:24:16.:24:19.

deals and our workers moving around countries and our students on

:24:20.:24:23.

exchanges, we would get back our democracy, independence, pride and

:24:23.:24:28.

self-respect. It is going to happen, I'm certain of it, this model is

:24:28.:24:32.

being reject. Mr Altmaier can say what he likes, people do not want

:24:32.:24:37.

to live under German-dominated austerity. We are seeing a

:24:37.:24:42.

democratic rebellion across Europe. Nobody is dominating Europe, but

:24:42.:24:47.

the consensus of 27 sovereign states. All these states, except

:24:47.:24:54.

the UK and the Czech Republic, have agreed on the fiscal package. The

:24:54.:24:58.

far left and far right have been defeated in the elections, it is

:24:58.:25:02.

now a battle between centre left and centre right. I'm convinced

:25:02.:25:08.

this will go on and succeed. They are yelling in my ear now, we

:25:08.:25:12.

must leave it. When it comes to the House of Lords,

:25:12.:25:19.

Britain finds itself in the esteem country of Kazakhstan and one other

:25:19.:25:22.

country, the only place where the second chamber is bigger than the

:25:22.:25:29.

first. Today it was recommended the House of Lords be elected by a --

:25:29.:25:36.

be replaced by a elected body. Some Lib Dem MPs will vote against

:25:36.:25:41.

their leader's plans for reform. George V on his way to open

:25:41.:25:45.

parliament in 2010, much has changed, but much is still the same.

:25:45.:25:48.

The Government then was heading for a showdown with the Lords, it was

:25:49.:25:53.

determined to reform the Upper House. On its way to its promised

:25:53.:25:55.

abolition of the Lords, the then Government put through the

:25:55.:26:00.

parliament Act of 1911, to establish, in law, the primacy of

:26:00.:26:10.
:26:10.:26:20.

the Commons. But only, you And boy were they not kidding on

:26:20.:26:24.

that one. In the 100 years or so since the parliament Act was signed,

:26:25.:26:29.

and this is the original, held in the Parliamentary Archive, there

:26:29.:26:33.

have been numerous attempts to reform the Upper House. Where they

:26:33.:26:36.

have been successful, they have generally been about excluding

:26:36.:26:40.

people from sitting in the Lords. The last Labour Government got rid

:26:40.:26:44.

of the vast majority of hereditary peers, and shipped the Law Lords

:26:44.:26:49.

off to sit in their own Supreme Court. A far trickyier, and

:26:49.:26:52.

impossible question to answer satisfactorily, is who should sit

:26:52.:26:58.

in the Lords, and how should they be selected. One of the issues is

:26:58.:27:01.

it is will legislating about parliament itself. Every single

:27:01.:27:05.

member of parliament, in both houses, 1400 people, think they are

:27:05.:27:09.

an expert in the subject and they all have their own opinion. As if

:27:09.:27:12.

to illustrate the point, today of the day the joint committee, made

:27:12.:27:17.

up of MPs and peers, was supposed to publish its recommendations. It

:27:17.:27:21.

did, but at the same time. people are entitled to a say.

:27:21.:27:24.

minority group of the committee, published their own report,

:27:24.:27:31.

disagreeing with the first lot. The issue that d divided the committees,

:27:31.:27:34.

divided many parliamentarians, should members of a reformed Upper

:27:34.:27:37.

House be elected or not. At the moment the country understands very

:27:37.:27:42.

clearly that we go to an election with a manifesto, whatever party

:27:42.:27:46.

you vote for can come to this place and legislation a dlifrb its

:27:46.:27:50.

legislative programme, very clearly. -- deliver its legislative

:27:50.:27:56.

programme, very clearly. The moment you have a mandate from the people,

:27:56.:27:59.

they will ask why do you have primacy.

:27:59.:28:02.

However used to getting their way the Lords might be in their day

:28:02.:28:05.

jobs, they have to accept that the Commons is the boss when it comes

:28:05.:28:08.

to making laws. The Government and majority committee report both say

:28:08.:28:11.

electing peers won't change this. Indeed, the Government and the

:28:11.:28:15.

committee have come up with remarkably similar proposals.

:28:15.:28:19.

There is a difference in the numbers involved, the Government

:28:19.:28:25.

wanted 300 members of the new Upper House, the point committee 450, but

:28:25.:28:30.

both propose 80% should be elected, the rest nominated, and include 12

:28:30.:28:34.

bishops, both proposed that an elected member should serve a non-

:28:34.:28:37.

renewable term of up to 15 years, and both that the elections should

:28:37.:28:41.

be held under a single transferable vote, and should coincide with

:28:41.:28:45.

elections to the Commons. But, today's report recommends a

:28:45.:28:49.

referendum, before the changes become law. I don't think a

:28:49.:28:54.

referendum is strictlinessry, because this change to --

:28:55.:29:00.

strictlinessry, because this was in -- strictly necessary, because this

:29:00.:29:04.

was in every manifesto. We should take it seriously and it should be

:29:04.:29:10.

debated and discussed, I can see arguments against it, but I'm happy

:29:10.:29:13.

to listen and consider. The Deputy Prime Minister, emphatically, does

:29:13.:29:17.

not want a referendum? It is something we have been talking

:29:17.:29:21.

about for 100 years and we need to get on with it for minimum fuss.

:29:21.:29:26.

One thing that hasn't changed since 1911 and the Parliament Act, then

:29:26.:29:29.

it was a liberal Government pushing reform, today it is Liberal

:29:29.:29:34.

Democrats in Government pushing for reform. Their coalition pearer ins

:29:34.:29:39.

are far less enthuse aix, in some cases openly hostile to what Nick

:29:39.:29:43.

Clegg is proposing. Some believe this issue, far more than health

:29:43.:29:48.

and deficit reduction, has the capacity to rip the coalition apart.

:29:48.:29:52.

Indeed, some Lib Dems suggest that if the Conservatives don't back

:29:52.:29:55.

Lords reform, without a referendum, well, they won't vote through the

:29:55.:29:59.

reduction in parliamentary seats that would, or should, favour the

:29:59.:30:07.

Conservatives. We have had one referendum that proved disastrous

:30:07.:30:10.

results, from a coalition point of view, we don't need another.

:30:10.:30:14.

Another one would put a strain on the coalition? It would put a great

:30:14.:30:20.

strain on the coalition, and if we don't vote through the

:30:20.:30:25.

redistribution, and equally great strange on the coalition, if the

:30:25.:30:27.

Conservatives don't stick to the coalition agreement and vote

:30:27.:30:31.

through Lords reform. I think David Cameron, although he may wish it

:30:31.:30:35.

otherwise, has no choice but put it into the Queen's Speech, because it

:30:35.:30:39.

is part of the coalition deal. The bill will be introduced, but

:30:39.:30:44.

subject to hundreds of amendments on the floor of the House of

:30:44.:30:48.

Commons t will take weeks there. I think the likeliest thing is that

:30:48.:30:53.

the bill will be withdrawn. Predicting failure for Lords reform,

:30:53.:30:58.

has been a pretty God bet over the last century. It combines three

:30:58.:31:02.

factors that make inertia likely. The politicians are split. None of

:31:02.:31:05.

the solutions comes without potential problems, and, according

:31:05.:31:12.

to opinion poll, the public don't really care one way or the other.

:31:12.:31:18.

Is it right to prioritise reform at that time of such vulnerability.

:31:18.:31:22.

What will be the knock-on effect for the House of Commons.

:31:22.:31:31.

The man the Huffington Post said one day could be party leader, and

:31:31.:31:37.

-- Mark Harper. The Prime Minister and his

:31:37.:31:41.

colleagues were called posh people who don't understand ordinary

:31:41.:31:45.

people, how will reforming the Lords dispel that image? The Prime

:31:45.:31:49.

Minister made it clear this morning, the Government's priority is still

:31:49.:31:52.

reducing the deficit, economic growth and jobs for hard working

:31:52.:31:56.

families in the country. It is absolutely possible for the

:31:56.:32:00.

Government to do more than one thing at a time. Even though the

:32:00.:32:05.

public don't care about it? If you knock on somebody's door, they

:32:05.:32:08.

won't ask you about it. If you ask the public if they think somebody

:32:08.:32:14.

who makes the laws should be picking by them as opposed to

:32:14.:32:18.

leaders of the political parties, overwhelmingly they say yes, the

:32:18.:32:23.

public should pick emthis. It might be a subject they don't care about

:32:23.:32:28.

much, but they agree with what the Government is doing, and electing

:32:28.:32:32.

80% of the House of Lords is part of that. How do you begin to

:32:32.:32:37.

explain to people why an unelected man like yourself, spend a day

:32:37.:32:42.

longer making laws for the country? I don't at all. To return to the

:32:42.:32:45.

basic question, our two parties came together in a coalition to put

:32:45.:32:50.

the financial situation in the country right. We are being

:32:50.:32:53.

constantly side tracked on to things like the AV referendum, the

:32:53.:32:57.

National Health Service Bill and now this. It simply is distracting

:32:57.:33:03.

from what is the main issue. It has always been distracting, and has

:33:03.:33:06.

been more 100 years t doesn't put something that is undemocratic

:33:06.:33:09.

right? You are wrong about that, there has been steady improvements

:33:09.:33:13.

and changes over that 100 years, and more are now needed.

:33:13.:33:17.

elections? I think there is a very interesting new report out today

:33:17.:33:20.

from the Conservative lawyers, saying there should be instrict

:33:20.:33:25.

elections. This report itself, to my -- indirect elections. This

:33:25.:33:28.

report itself, to my surprise, says the committee has recommended, that

:33:28.:33:30.

the committee would like the Government to give further

:33:30.:33:34.

consideration to a nationally indirectly elected House. That

:33:34.:33:38.

would have the advantage of not setting autopsy competition between

:33:38.:33:41.

the two houses, there would be no popular mandate from the Upper

:33:41.:33:46.

House. Would it matter if the Lords did become more powerful than the

:33:46.:33:52.

Commons, if they were both essentially elected bodies, fairly

:33:52.:33:55.

representing our countries, would it matter? The point we have made

:33:55.:34:00.

is this, the relationship between the two houses will change if the

:34:00.:34:02.

Lords is elected. The Parliament Act means that the Commons can

:34:02.:34:07.

always get its own way. My own view is actually if we strengthen

:34:07.:34:11.

parliament, I think strengthening the laws will strengthen parliament.

:34:11.:34:18.

If ministers have to work harder to persuade parliament as a whole to

:34:18.:34:21.

pass legislation, I think that is a good thing. If you made things

:34:21.:34:25.

better by the number of bills you passed, the last Labour Government

:34:25.:34:29.

would be more successful. Even if they are in competition with each

:34:29.:34:35.

other? The Commons will always get its own way, and that is right,

:34:35.:34:38.

they determine what governs the country, ultimately is controls the

:34:38.:34:43.

budget and the money. I think a stronger House of Lords would be a

:34:43.:34:46.

good thing. The committee itself has said that the House of Lords

:34:46.:34:49.

will have more power, and that will be a threat to the Commons. That is

:34:49.:34:52.

what your colleagues in the Commons are worried about. The committee

:34:52.:34:55.

says the things in place to ensure the primacy of the Commons, the

:34:55.:35:00.

Parliament Act, all the underpinning. They say class two is

:35:00.:35:04.

a waste of time? They say to look he at the drafting of the bill, and

:35:04.:35:07.

we will. The things that guarantee the primacy of the Commons, the

:35:07.:35:10.

committee thinks that is solid, and that will guarantee the primacy of

:35:10.:35:13.

the Commons going forward. You made the point that the coalition

:35:13.:35:16.

parties came together to sort out the deficit in the economic crisis,

:35:16.:35:22.

why is your leader prior yietsing this now then? I think Nick has had

:35:22.:35:26.

a consistent view, he thinks the House of Lords should be wholly

:35:26.:35:30.

elected. It doesn't go into the detail of how the House of Lords

:35:30.:35:34.

works. Are we seriously going to have Members of Parliament, with

:35:34.:35:39.

senators, presumptionably they will be called senators, not Lords, for

:35:39.:35:44.

15 years marching around their constituents, saying we have a

:35:44.:35:47.

mandate too. That is why the House of Commons is saying do we want

:35:47.:35:53.

this and the cost of it. If the public has to vote, the referendum

:35:53.:35:57.

will put the kie Bosch on it, people won't vote for something

:35:57.:36:06.

that is 400 unelected Lords. The mass murder on trial in Norway

:36:06.:36:13.

has been given rock star attention and prime time television time. The

:36:13.:36:17.

man accused of shooting 70 people, many teenagers, has been discussed

:36:17.:36:21.

and dissects as merely a point view. The approach to the trial of Anders

:36:21.:36:24.

Behring Breivik, whose evidence ended today, is perhaps

:36:24.:36:27.

unsurprising in such a liberal society in nor way. But is it the

:36:27.:36:32.

right one? To many, the courtroom scene is

:36:32.:36:36.

beyond the grotesque, the evidence certainly far worse than gruesome.

:36:36.:36:42.

A mass murderer, whose only regret at killing 77, is it was 500 short

:36:42.:36:50.

of the number of victims he wanted. With his fascist salute and bovine

:36:50.:36:54.

smirk, spent a decade in his room dreaming up an audience like that.

:36:54.:37:01.

That was his plan, to use this explosion, and the massacre at

:37:01.:37:09.

Utoeya, to give him a time in court that should be his stage, his way

:37:09.:37:13.

of propaganda for his case. In one way you could say the more he

:37:13.:37:18.

speaks, the fewer followers he will have. There are many thinking this

:37:18.:37:22.

is too much. Yet even some of those who escaped

:37:22.:37:26.

the horror of the island of Utoeya, whose friends were killed, even

:37:26.:37:32.

they endorsed the process. I think it is good to see him now, when he

:37:32.:37:39.

is surrounded by police, and in a safe place.

:37:39.:37:44.

It gives a little closure. What is striking is the courtliness

:37:44.:37:48.

of the courtroom, the way the prosecutors lined up to shake the

:37:48.:37:54.

killer's hand, before listening to his long and detailed account.

:37:54.:38:00.

He wanted to behead the former Prime Minister, leaving the island.

:38:00.:38:06.

He was explaining why he even killed those under 16 years,

:38:06.:38:10.

because they also were a part of the brain-washing camp of the

:38:10.:38:15.

Labour Party. He had so many things to explain, and it is important for

:38:15.:38:21.

the court, to decide if he's insane or not. Is there not concern that

:38:21.:38:25.

he is getting the platform which he said was his reason for committing

:38:25.:38:32.

the crimes in the first place? we are dealing with here now is a

:38:32.:38:37.

dilemma. How to get the information from the man, that has committed

:38:37.:38:43.

this horrendous crime, and the ideas about it, how long does it

:38:43.:38:48.

take. The court in Oslo says it will take five days. What he means

:38:48.:38:53.

is Norway's court system might be described as liberal, but it isn't

:38:53.:38:57.

niave, they have limited Breivik's statement to five days, in a trial

:38:57.:39:02.

lasting 12 weeks. What's more the cameras have been banned for the

:39:02.:39:07.

statement, they are determined that clips won't bounce around YouTube

:39:08.:39:14.

for all eternity. The world's media have been following the case, news

:39:14.:39:17.

channels filled with hours of the trial, and they will return if they

:39:17.:39:23.

are allowed back in. For Norway this is unusual. They welcomed the

:39:23.:39:28.

cameras because this is a national tragedy, and the nation needs

:39:28.:39:33.

catharsis. They heard Breivik's voice and his justification of the

:39:33.:39:36.

unjustifyable initial low. TRANSLATION: I acknowledge the acts,

:39:36.:39:42.

but I do not plead guilty, I will claim was doing it in self-defence.

:39:42.:39:46.

Elsewhere in Europe judges give short shrift to defendants using a

:39:46.:39:53.

court for a political platform. In the US, the alleged architect of

:39:53.:39:59.

9/11, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, goesen to trial next month, before

:39:59.:40:05.

a military tribunal, where his rights are limbed so he won't use

:40:05.:40:10.

it. The Scandinavians are growing weary of Anders Behring Breivik.

:40:10.:40:15.

think we will see his photo on the front page another week or two. But

:40:15.:40:24.

then I think the appeals from the victims of going to the supermarket

:40:24.:40:31.

without seeing his face on the front pages, can we be free of that,

:40:31.:40:39.

and I think the newspapers will do Brian Friedman, a Guardian writer

:40:39.:40:46.

and author of political thrillers human rights lawyer.

:40:46.:40:50.

I'm wondering if you buy the argument that a nation in grief

:40:50.:40:54.

needs the catharsis that comes with seeing a trial like this? It is

:40:54.:40:58.

hard to speak against the survivors of the attack that say it helps

:40:58.:41:01.

them. That is not the main reason, Norway feels it is their legal

:41:01.:41:04.

system, and they don't want to change it just because of him. They

:41:04.:41:09.

want to plof the system is robust enough, -- prove it is robust

:41:09.:41:14.

enough and they can cope with it. There is an immediate dimension to

:41:14.:41:18.

this, let's say the courts are right to remain open and stick to

:41:18.:41:22.

their principles, it doesn't make it right for the media in Norway

:41:22.:41:26.

and the world, to hand this man a megaphone, to treat his statement

:41:26.:41:31.

as if it is a familiar flet written for a think-tank and people arguing

:41:31.:41:35.

the rights and wrongs of it. It is about the media coverage of this?

:41:35.:41:38.

It feels the courts have been responsible, they won't have

:41:38.:41:41.

cameras on his statement, there is a question about whether you do.

:41:41.:41:44.

Let's say you have made that choice, there is a burden of responsibility

:41:44.:41:52.

on all of those of us around the every nugget, and nuance of his

:41:52.:41:59.

speech, ass if a thinker whose opinions deserve debating, that is

:41:59.:42:06.

-- as if a thinker whose opinions deserve debate is wrong. Do you

:42:06.:42:10.

believe they are feeding this oxygen? I'm a firm believer in open

:42:10.:42:13.

justice. I don't like the way we have been recently going, which is

:42:13.:42:17.

when it comes to terrorism, and things that we really are horrified

:42:18.:42:22.

by, that we seek to deal with things increasingly behind closed

:42:22.:42:27.

doors. I think open justice is an essential element in a democracy. I

:42:27.:42:31.

think the Norwegians have dealt with this rather well. I'm somebody

:42:31.:42:40.

who opposes tell advising of criminal trials. I don't know --

:42:40.:42:45.

teleadvising of criminal trials. This is clearly a man who relishes

:42:46.:42:50.

psycho analysing himself in front of an entire world? The court is

:42:50.:42:53.

psycho analysing him, they are having to decide is this man

:42:53.:42:57.

somebody who is pathological, I think it is coming through he is.

:42:57.:43:01.

He is playing it carefully, he said he wouldn't testify at all unless

:43:01.:43:07.

he got a full hour to read his statement. He had written in his

:43:07.:43:11.

1800-page manifesto that your trial is stage to the world. Knows the

:43:11.:43:16.

propaganda value of that, the problem is, by giving him that

:43:16.:43:20.

stage, we are setting out an incentive to other Breivik, kill as

:43:20.:43:25.

this man did and you will be rewarded with this global platform.

:43:25.:43:29.

Should we not turn up on the doorstep and mention how many

:43:29.:43:34.

people are shot in these situations as journalists? You don't pour over

:43:34.:43:38.

these manifestos as if they have kick started a debate, rather than

:43:38.:43:41.

committed a murderous crime. Many of the trials in this country, the

:43:41.:43:46.

people who did the airline bomb plot, the focus of the coverage in

:43:46.:43:49.

2006, it was about the mechanics of the plan, the scale of it, people

:43:49.:43:55.

did not go into great depth about their political ideas. We don't

:43:55.:44:00.

need to know his views on multiculturalism, he is a mass

:44:00.:44:05.

murdering? It is very important for this court to hear about this man's

:44:05.:44:12.

motives for doing what he did. It exposes the uglyness of his views

:44:12.:44:20.

of how important it is that we engage with difference, and we do

:44:20.:44:24.

not have automatic hostility to the other. Which I think is happening

:44:24.:44:28.

increase league across Europe. are more understanding of the fact

:44:28.:44:31.

these motives killed 70 people? have to understand what brought

:44:31.:44:36.

this man to this position. So that you can sentence him and what will

:44:36.:44:41.

happen to him is he will get a heavy sentence. It is not to do

:44:42.:44:46.

that by covering it as if it is the Chancellor's budget statement,

:44:46.:44:51.

minute-by-minute. There is a plea for consistency, Breivik is treated

:44:51.:44:54.

differently because he as a threat to Norway and Europe from within.

:44:54.:45:01.

Those people deemed from without, the 9/11 hijackers, mom hom mom is

:45:01.:45:05.

a definitive -- Khalid Sheikh Mohammed is a definitive example,

:45:05.:45:10.

and they are treated in a different way. Do you think it is a prepable

:45:10.:45:16.

system? There is a legal argument, my instincts are with normway, the

:45:16.:45:19.

response of the Norwegian Prime Minister was responding with more

:45:19.:45:25.

freedom and more democracy. That is great, the rest of us outside, the

:45:25.:45:29.

media, we have then a response toblt say that is happening as a

:45:29.:45:35.

trial. But -- responsibility to say that is happening as a trial.

:45:35.:45:38.

public are entitled to know what happened and what went wrong. It is

:45:38.:45:42.

important for the victims of this atrocity and families to have a

:45:42.:45:50.

public hearing, that is absolutely vital, that is what law is about in

:45:50.:45:54.

a democracy. The 29th certificate national kite

:45:54.:45:57.

festival kicked off in China this weekend. Hopefully you will be

:45:57.:46:07.
:46:07.:46:41.

If you get a try day you will be doing well. A lot more rain to come.

:46:41.:46:45.

This is Tuesday, a damp start across East Anglia and the south-

:46:45.:46:48.

east. Fade ago I way and the showers getting going by the

:46:48.:46:58.

afternoon. Sunshine and showers, many places vieding them but many a

:46:58.:47:02.

downpour or two. The best of brightness getting up

:47:02.:47:06.

to 12-13, warmer than southern counties, when the showers come

:47:06.:47:10.

along they will tumble by seven degrees. Some of the best sunshine

:47:10.:47:15.

across the west coast of Wales, reasonable here, but heavy showers

:47:15.:47:18.

inland, especially over the high grond. Northern Ireland seeing

:47:18.:47:22.

sunshine and showers, you might get lucky to avoid them, you will be

:47:22.:47:26.

doing well. Ten degrees in Belfast, best across Scotland will be west.

:47:26.:47:31.

Further east clouds, showers, cool, and some snow over the Grampians.

:47:31.:47:35.

Looking further ahead it goes downhill on Wednesday. Really wet

:47:35.:47:40.

weather, pushing across the country, starting off in the south, heading

:47:40.:47:45.

northwards, a deluge, sproing strong winds, temperatures held

:47:45.:47:51.

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