Browse content similar to 16/05/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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As caretakers jobs go, it is quite a big one, run the country for a | :00:13. | :00:16. | |
month until we can find someone else. The political mess in Greece | :00:16. | :00:20. | |
may be resolved in new elections next month. Fears of cash pouring | :00:20. | :00:24. | |
out of the country in the meantime leave it in an even more uncertain | :00:24. | :00:30. | |
position. So, this was just a warm-up for the | :00:30. | :00:33. | |
swearing in of another Greek Prime Minister next month. | :00:33. | :00:37. | |
Greek prime ministers are none of our business, but if the Greeks | :00:37. | :00:43. | |
decide they have to leave the euro, it certainly will be. Germany's | :00:43. | :00:47. | |
Deputy Finance Minister remains bluffly confident it won't come to | :00:47. | :00:49. | |
that. When the governor of the Bank of | :00:49. | :00:53. | |
England, says as he said today, that the eurozone is tearing itself | :00:53. | :00:59. | |
apart, he's just wrong? We are a free country, a free Europe, | :00:59. | :01:02. | |
everybody is free to misjudge the political will of the European | :01:02. | :01:06. | |
Union. But if the citizens don't like it, | :01:06. | :01:10. | |
how can Governments get them to take the medicine. Is the wisdom of | :01:10. | :01:16. | |
crowds that you can't cut and grow at the same time actually right? | :01:16. | :01:19. | |
The Chinese age quake, they supposedly restrict families to one | :01:19. | :01:23. | |
child. So why are they running fertility campaigns, encouraging | :01:23. | :01:30. | |
women to conceive. How do ideas people have in the | :01:30. | :01:40. | |
:01:40. | :01:42. | ||
bath get to become political policy. The President of the EU bureaucracy | :01:42. | :01:46. | |
did what the union usually does on these occasions and said today they | :01:46. | :01:50. | |
would respect the democratic will of the Greek, but wanted them to | :01:50. | :01:52. | |
remember there were 16 other democracies in the euro. No | :01:52. | :01:56. | |
suggestion of pressure, then. The fact that such a vast chunk of the | :01:56. | :02:00. | |
Greek population wants to stay in the euro, but doesn't want to pay | :02:00. | :02:07. | |
the price demanded for doing so, led today to the equivalent of Mr | :02:08. | :02:10. | |
Justice Cocklecarrot being sworn in as the interim Prime Minister, | :02:10. | :02:13. | |
until somebody else can be found who might form a Government after | :02:13. | :02:18. | |
elections next month. Nobody is paying in this country, | :02:18. | :02:26. | |
they steal money, they eat money, the politicians and them, they live | :02:26. | :02:30. | |
and nobody goes to jail. Never tell a taxi driver you are going to meet | :02:30. | :02:35. | |
a politician, it always sets them off. But in Greece, five years into | :02:35. | :02:39. | |
an economic crisis almost universally blamed on a supposedly | :02:39. | :02:44. | |
self-serving elite, the Athens cabbie seems to speak for the | :02:44. | :02:49. | |
nation. The people are very angry, they want to punish them. You can't | :02:49. | :02:53. | |
take the money from the pension of an old man and all these people | :02:53. | :02:59. | |
with billions of dollars not to pay anything. This is unfair, of course. | :02:59. | :03:05. | |
Today, ten days after inconclusive elections, the President of Greece | :03:05. | :03:07. | |
appointed a caretaker Prime Minister, who can't be punished, | :03:07. | :03:14. | |
because he's not a politician, but a senior judge. He and his new | :03:14. | :03:18. | |
technocratic cabinet will govern for one month, until voters are | :03:18. | :03:22. | |
asked their opinion again on June 17th. It has no clear mandate to | :03:22. | :03:31. | |
make binding deals with Greece's cred ditors -- creditors, or stop | :03:31. | :03:36. | |
the cuts they are demanding. It is at the banks people are spreading a | :03:36. | :03:41. | |
fear, which the head of state says could turn into panic. Greeks | :03:41. | :03:46. | |
withdrew 700 million euros in the weeks during the election, as they | :03:46. | :03:51. | |
contemplated a return to their old currency, the drachma. With the | :03:51. | :03:55. | |
current uncertainty, who wouldn't rather have their euros in their | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
hand, available for use across the continent, rather than leave them | :03:58. | :04:03. | |
in a Greek bank and risk them being stamped as a transitional currency, | :04:03. | :04:08. | |
or even worse, as some fear, forcibly converted into drachmas, | :04:08. | :04:13. | |
which will probably then lose most of their value. The liquidity | :04:13. | :04:16. | |
crisis is growing, meanwhile further installments of bail out | :04:16. | :04:20. | |
funds from the European Union and the IMF, are dependant on further | :04:20. | :04:24. | |
austerity, that voters have rejected. Soon there may be no cash | :04:24. | :04:32. | |
to pay Government wages. TRANSLATION: According to the | :04:32. | :04:36. | |
Ministry of Finance, the money available will last up to the end | :04:36. | :04:38. | |
of June. Families are afraid at the moment, they are taking their money | :04:38. | :04:44. | |
out of the banking system. This is the big danger. That is why we need | :04:44. | :04:48. | |
political stability so badly. the party leaders who failed to | :04:48. | :04:52. | |
come up with any workable coalition can't provide that stability. Among | :04:52. | :04:57. | |
them in talks with the President today, Alexis Tsipras, leader of | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
the radical left grouping, Syriza, which came an unexpected second in | :05:01. | :05:07. | |
the last election, and some think may win next time. Today, in a BBC | :05:07. | :05:10. | |
interview, he was again defiant in rejecting the terms of Greece's | :05:10. | :05:15. | |
bail out. TRANSLATION: Throughout Europe now the citizens understand | :05:15. | :05:19. | |
that the disease of austerity, if it destroys Greece, will spread to | :05:20. | :05:25. | |
the rest of Europe. Therefore, European leadership, and especially | :05:25. | :05:30. | |
Mrs Merkel, need to stop playing poker with the lives of people. | :05:30. | :05:35. | |
Some within his own party now want him to go further, and reject the | :05:35. | :05:41. | |
euro. A currency Syriza is still officially committed to keeping. | :05:41. | :05:49. | |
When we have our currency, we have Mrs Merkel's currency now, it is | :05:49. | :05:55. | |
totally craze year, a country in such a recession, to have a very | :05:55. | :06:02. | |
expensive currency. So, I think that a national currency will solve | :06:02. | :06:08. | |
the great problem in Greece, the problem of liquidity. The centre | :06:08. | :06:11. | |
right New Democracy, which narrowly won the last election, aims to | :06:12. | :06:16. | |
convince voters that a return to the drachma would be a catastrophy. | :06:16. | :06:22. | |
It means that there will be chaos, the banking system will collapse, | :06:22. | :06:27. | |
what else, savings, everything, it will just go, we will be back to | :06:27. | :06:33. | |
drachma, I'm not sure what the rate will be between a euro and the new | :06:33. | :06:37. | |
drachma. For now, most Greeks continue to believe they can have | :06:37. | :06:41. | |
it all, the euro without the strings. It may turn out to be a | :06:41. | :06:51. | |
:06:51. | :06:55. | ||
dangerous fantasy. Every country has a plan for the Greek exit, | :06:55. | :07:03. | |
Greece has not a plan for a Greece exit. The Greek exit still looks | :07:03. | :07:09. | |
like scare mongering, it would hurt the Germans more thant Greeks, | :07:09. | :07:11. | |
wouldn't it? I don't think the Germans want us out of Europe, | :07:11. | :07:16. | |
because it will cost a lot of money for them to take us out of Europe, | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
more money than our loan is, I don't think they like that. They | :07:19. | :07:23. | |
want to be a strong country with investments, to pay them back, and | :07:23. | :07:28. | |
to have a good life, everybody, nobody wants to come to the drachma | :07:28. | :07:31. | |
again and lose so much money, I don't think the European people | :07:31. | :07:36. | |
want that. I believe they find a solution, I believe they will do | :07:36. | :07:40. | |
that. Europe hasn't had to make that | :07:40. | :07:43. | |
calculation yet. But it is ever more likely that it will have to | :07:43. | :07:49. | |
sooner or later, if the Greeks fail to decide themselves. | :07:49. | :07:54. | |
Tim is still in Athens. Now we know vast sums of cash are being | :07:54. | :07:58. | |
withdrawn from Greek banks, so is the banking system now becoming a | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
bigger problem than the political system? | :08:01. | :08:05. | |
That's right. We thought that the Greek crisis was on hold, roughly, | :08:05. | :08:08. | |
for a month, until the next elections, but, of course, that is | :08:08. | :08:12. | |
not turning out to be the case at all. And the financial pressures | :08:12. | :08:17. | |
are mounting all the time. First, as you say, is the question of the | :08:17. | :08:20. | |
run on the banks. We can only assume the amount of money taken | :08:20. | :08:23. | |
out of banks will get greater and greater, as the prospect, that is | :08:23. | :08:28. | |
what the polls suggest, the likely prospect of a left-wing victory in | :08:28. | :08:32. | |
the next election increases. Then there is the situation that the | :08:32. | :08:36. | |
European Central Bank today has said that it will stop providing | :08:36. | :08:41. | |
cheap loans to some Greek banks, for routine operations. Now, there | :08:41. | :08:46. | |
is still a way the Greek banks will get money through another channel, | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
that will be also stopped if the ECB considers those banks to be | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
insolvent. You can see there possibly a developing liquidity | :08:53. | :08:57. | |
crisis that could lead to a collapse of the Greek banking | :08:57. | :09:00. | |
system. Then we would be back to the question of another bail out, | :09:00. | :09:04. | |
or a forced exit from the euro, while the caretaker Government, | :09:04. | :09:08. | |
which has no real mandate, is still in place. This is a nightmare high | :09:08. | :09:16. | |
pop sis, there is a lot of ifs -- hypothesis, there is a lot of "ifs" | :09:16. | :09:20. | |
there, but the groks are saying, no reason to pan -- Greeks are saying, | :09:20. | :09:25. | |
no reason to panic yet. The governor of the Bank of England, | :09:25. | :09:32. | |
said he thought the eurozone was tearing itself apart. Such is the | :09:32. | :09:36. | |
view from Threadneedle Street, but it is not the talk they like in the | :09:36. | :09:43. | |
biggest member of the eurozone. The deputy Germany Finance Minister was | :09:43. | :09:47. | |
in London today, I took the opportunity to corner him on the | :09:47. | :09:50. | |
issues? Do you think in a year there will be 17 members of the | :09:50. | :09:55. | |
euro? Yes. You can't be 100% certain? No, but the result of what | :09:55. | :10:00. | |
will be a reality in one year is not only by chance but political | :10:00. | :10:04. | |
will. The activities and engagment of the European Union and the | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
European Central Bank, over the last two years, was to keep Greece | :10:07. | :10:12. | |
back on track, we will go on. But that means we require a stable | :10:12. | :10:16. | |
Government in Greece, but the path is regaining competitiveness, and | :10:17. | :10:19. | |
stability. When the governor of the Bank of | :10:19. | :10:23. | |
England, says as he said today, that the eurozone is tearing itself | :10:23. | :10:28. | |
apart, he's just wrong? We are a free country, we are a free Europe, | :10:28. | :10:32. | |
everybody is free to misjudge the political will of the European | :10:32. | :10:38. | |
Union. He has done that, he has misjudged that? I think he's | :10:38. | :10:41. | |
misjudging the activities of the heads of state. We have achieved, I | :10:41. | :10:46. | |
think, quite a case of stability. We achieved the private sector | :10:46. | :10:50. | |
involvement, and now we have some challenges, because of unstable | :10:50. | :10:55. | |
Governments, but I'm expecting, as a result of the election mid-June, | :10:56. | :10:58. | |
a stable, pro-European Government, that is committed today the | :10:58. | :11:01. | |
memorandum of understanding. when the British Prime Minister, | :11:01. | :11:06. | |
David Cameron, says the eurozone has to decide whether to make up or | :11:06. | :11:09. | |
break up, he also has misunderstood the situation, there is a decision? | :11:09. | :11:13. | |
This is clear, but we have already taken the decision two years ago. | :11:13. | :11:18. | |
Make up. So he's misread it? the decision was quite clear, when | :11:18. | :11:23. | |
we started the engagment, for solidarity towards Greece, in | :11:23. | :11:27. | |
exchange to that, we asked the Greek people to get back on track | :11:27. | :11:31. | |
to reform the country, to stablise the budget, to make structural | :11:31. | :11:36. | |
reform, to come back on a growth path. This is actually what we are | :11:36. | :11:42. | |
doing for the last two years. boss says the Greek people have to | :11:42. | :11:47. | |
decide whether they want to be inside the euro or outside the euro, | :11:47. | :11:51. | |
haven't they decided they want to be both? Actually, yes. But if you | :11:52. | :11:57. | |
have a participating with the several advantages you have by the | :11:57. | :12:03. | |
currency, you have to fulfil the complication - obligations. But you | :12:03. | :12:06. | |
must have thought about Greece being unable to maintain its | :12:06. | :12:10. | |
position in the euro? The question that Greece would be competitive | :12:10. | :12:13. | |
within weeks, which some of the political debaters seem to have, is | :12:13. | :12:18. | |
wrong. It would take a decade. Our programme is not based on weeks, | :12:18. | :12:28. | |
but on years, to support Greece, and to re gain political movement - | :12:28. | :12:31. | |
- regain political movement towards competitiveness. They can't stay | :12:31. | :12:35. | |
within the euro and reject the austerity package? You are right in | :12:35. | :12:39. | |
that judgment. They seem to think they can? I don't think that they | :12:39. | :12:44. | |
think that. They are disappointed with their Government, that is | :12:44. | :12:49. | |
quite clear. What they are not now facing is not the result of the | :12:49. | :12:52. | |
European integration, it is the result of the lack of reforms over | :12:52. | :12:56. | |
the last decade. For Germany the euro is working, but it is not | :12:56. | :12:59. | |
working for much of the rest of Europe, and you know it is not | :12:59. | :13:04. | |
working? Actually I disagree with your judgment on that one, it is a | :13:04. | :13:08. | |
win-win situation for both of the participants. Those who gain more | :13:08. | :13:13. | |
solidarity, and those who invest in sol darty. Stability is what we | :13:13. | :13:17. | |
gain for -- solidarity. Stability is what we gain for both sides. | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
they say the price of staying in the euro is too great, they are | :13:21. | :13:26. | |
free to leave, aren't they? Technically they are not, but we | :13:26. | :13:30. | |
can't keep them if they don't want. If you look on the polls, there is | :13:30. | :13:35. | |
a majority of the Greek people who want to stay within the euro. And | :13:35. | :13:39. | |
my clear answer, if you want to participate in the advantages, and | :13:39. | :13:43. | |
I think they are big, you should change the course of politics. | :13:43. | :13:47. | |
Plenty of voters, and not just in Greece, but in France as well, now | :13:47. | :13:51. | |
think there may be an alternative towards austerity, is there? | :13:51. | :13:57. | |
course there is an alternative. What is it? The alternative is not | :13:57. | :14:02. | |
only calling for catastrophy in Greece, but enhancing their chances, | :14:02. | :14:06. | |
taking the time they need. But on the other hand, in exchange to them, | :14:06. | :14:11. | |
that we have to keep them on track. Greece is in a very complicated | :14:11. | :14:17. | |
situation, politically, socially and economically. Do you actually | :14:17. | :14:21. | |
think that arguing that this will lead into a catastrophy is any help | :14:21. | :14:26. | |
to improve the situation. I'm not trying to help anybody, I'm asking | :14:26. | :14:30. | |
why you haven't thought about it? haven't said I haven't thought | :14:30. | :14:33. | |
about it. You have, what do you think it would be like? I think it | :14:33. | :14:38. | |
would be worse than the situation we have now. And what about the | :14:38. | :14:41. | |
philosophical alternative, that Francois Hollande poses in France. | :14:41. | :14:44. | |
Do you think there is an alternative to austerity, as he | :14:44. | :14:52. | |
says? I wouldn't use the word "austerity". It is his word? This | :14:52. | :14:56. | |
is the first measure mainly misunderstood. The growth | :14:56. | :15:00. | |
strategies have to be based on fiscal conditions that gain trust | :15:00. | :15:06. | |
from the market. Growth and consolidation, I would call it. | :15:06. | :15:13. | |
Both sides of one medal, called "economic stability". Whatever Mr | :15:13. | :15:16. | |
Hollande says or other European statesmen say, Germany will not | :15:16. | :15:20. | |
change its position? Germany will develop its position, we have a | :15:20. | :15:24. | |
very good meeting between Chancellor Merkel and Francois | :15:24. | :15:29. | |
Hollande. It came clear to me as a result, we are not renegotiating | :15:29. | :15:33. | |
the Fiscal Compact. Because fiscal conditions have to be stable. But | :15:33. | :15:37. | |
we take up the ideas the European heads of state, including David | :15:37. | :15:42. | |
Cameron, are organising since autumn last year, to re-focus the | :15:42. | :15:45. | |
debate back from crisis, on to growth strategies. Thank you very | :15:45. | :15:50. | |
much. David Cameron warned that it was | :15:50. | :15:55. | |
make-or-break time on the euro today. As you heard just there. Our | :15:55. | :15:58. | |
political editor, Allegra Stratton is here. What is it about? We were | :15:58. | :16:01. | |
supposed to be getting a speech tomorrow on parenting and family | :16:01. | :16:05. | |
issues. Instead, it is a sign of the choppyness in Government right | :16:05. | :16:07. | |
now, and the issues we have just been hearing about, that they are | :16:07. | :16:12. | |
actually doing a speech on the euro and the economy. Today in Prime | :16:12. | :16:15. | |
Minister's Questions, David Cameron gave us a flash of what he will be | :16:15. | :16:18. | |
mentioning. The eurozone has to make a choice, if the eurozone | :16:18. | :16:23. | |
wants to continue as it is, then it has got to build a proper firewall, | :16:23. | :16:31. | |
it has to take steps to secure the weakest members of the eurozone, or | :16:31. | :16:35. | |
it has to work it out and go in a different direction. It has to make | :16:35. | :16:39. | |
up or look at a potential break up, that is the choice they have to | :16:39. | :16:45. | |
make, and it can't be long put off. That is an ultimatum, it sounds | :16:45. | :16:51. | |
like a civil servant rewriting John Wayne. It is an ultimatum by a man | :16:51. | :16:56. | |
who hasn't a dog in the fight? is aimed at the tkhesic audience, | :16:56. | :17:00. | |
not at the central banks around -- domestic audience, not the central | :17:00. | :17:02. | |
banks around Europe. That frustration is about a certificate | :17:02. | :17:06. | |
yues of things, relating to the -- series of things, relating to the | :17:06. | :17:09. | |
interview just done. For a while the Government has talked about has | :17:09. | :17:13. | |
Germany done enough to think about the idea of eurobonds, reaching out | :17:13. | :17:18. | |
to Greece. Has there been enough done to put a firewall around Spain | :17:18. | :17:22. | |
and Italy. It is frustration. It is the moment they are saying to the | :17:22. | :17:26. | |
British public, if it gets choppy and bad, we saw it coming, it is | :17:26. | :17:28. | |
not an extension of the incompetence issue, we were on top | :17:29. | :17:34. | |
of it and issuing advice. Briefly what will the speech be about | :17:34. | :17:38. | |
tomorrow? It is the old friend, austerity versus growth, they will | :17:38. | :17:42. | |
say they are sticking to Plan A. They are looking at a way to get | :17:42. | :17:46. | |
growth in the future through austerity. There is serious concern | :17:46. | :17:52. | |
what might happen should there be a euro break up. The paradox in | :17:52. | :17:56. | |
politics at the moment, which I keep saying in the packages, is the | :17:56. | :17:58. | |
deficit is the most controversial decision this Government has made, | :17:58. | :18:01. | |
but also the one the British public, for the time being, believe they | :18:01. | :18:04. | |
are right about. The events in Europe allow them a vivid display | :18:04. | :18:09. | |
of why they are at it. Thank you. | :18:09. | :18:15. | |
Tomorrow the Prime Minister is going to tell us austerity, or -- | :18:15. | :18:20. | |
why austerity, isn't the enemy of growth. As you will have seen if | :18:20. | :18:27. | |
you were watching the German Finance Minister earlier, the "A" | :18:27. | :18:32. | |
word makes many politicians agitated. What does austerity do to | :18:32. | :18:36. | |
growth? That we have a rampent deficit that | :18:36. | :18:41. | |
needs urgent attention, is not disputed, how and how fast it | :18:41. | :18:45. | |
should go cut is. Most people will describe the current mix of | :18:45. | :18:48. | |
spending cuts and some tax rises as austerity, but is it really. Can | :18:49. | :18:53. | |
you grow your economy, while cutting back at the same time. | :18:53. | :18:58. | |
Certainly the coalition thinks so, it aims to take �81 billion out of | :18:58. | :19:02. | |
the UK economy between now and 2015. It feels that by cutting borrowing, | :19:02. | :19:07. | |
what you save on bank interest can be used to invest in long-term | :19:07. | :19:10. | |
projects. And things started well, unemployment has stayed relatively | :19:10. | :19:14. | |
low, and the cost of borrowing for Britain, for example, its bond | :19:14. | :19:18. | |
yields, are also at record lows. But the planned rebalancing of | :19:18. | :19:21. | |
Britain's economy away from borrowing and consumption, and | :19:21. | :19:24. | |
towards manufacturing and exports, is faltering. | :19:24. | :19:27. | |
The Government's austerity plan was to take money out of the public | :19:27. | :19:30. | |
sector, and hope that private sector companies would rush in to | :19:31. | :19:35. | |
fill the void, as well as a cheap pound leading to an export-led | :19:35. | :19:39. | |
recovery. But the Government hasn't exactly had the wind at its back, | :19:39. | :19:44. | |
there is a spike in commodities, et cetera specially oil prices, banks | :19:44. | :19:47. | |
-- especially oil price, banks are so weak they won't lend to | :19:47. | :19:50. | |
companies or consumers. And the markets into which exporters hope | :19:50. | :19:53. | |
to sell their goods, particularly western Europe, are still very | :19:53. | :19:59. | |
feeble. On top of that, the planned cuts have barely started. If you | :19:59. | :20:03. | |
think things are austere now, you might want to ask your grandparents | :20:03. | :20:09. | |
what they were like in post-war Britain. Rampent joblessness was | :20:09. | :20:13. | |
widespread, and benefits didn't exist and healthcare was primitive. | :20:13. | :20:18. | |
Across the Irish Sea they know a thing about austerity. Since 2008, | :20:18. | :20:22. | |
most salaries, including the well unionised public sector have been | :20:22. | :20:29. | |
cut by a fifth. Unploilt is twice that of Britain's, and house prices | :20:29. | :20:32. | |
have collapsed. Britain won't need that kind of correction, because | :20:32. | :20:36. | |
the boom wasn't as big as Ireland's. Will British voters have the | :20:36. | :20:41. | |
stomach for that kind of drop in living standards. When people talk | :20:41. | :20:45. | |
about reefrpbt austerity, as if there were -- recent austerity, as | :20:45. | :20:49. | |
if there were spending cuts and the economic slowing down. That is a | :20:49. | :20:53. | |
misconception, the spending cuts have yet to come. So the British | :20:53. | :20:58. | |
public think they are in the middle of a major windback by the British | :20:58. | :21:02. | |
Government ain't seen nothing yet? It has barely started. So if | :21:02. | :21:06. | |
austerity, as an economic model, is in danger, can aiming for growth by | :21:06. | :21:10. | |
borrowing even more money be the answer? President Hollande got | :21:10. | :21:14. | |
elected on that very premise, and across the pond, the US is showing | :21:14. | :21:20. | |
robust signs of growth on the back of President Obama's two short-term | :21:20. | :21:23. | |
stimuli, first through I infrastructure, and recently | :21:23. | :21:27. | |
through tax rebates. The problems with President Obama's growth plan, | :21:27. | :21:32. | |
a good old fashioned Keynsian stimulus, is it dicks the debt | :21:32. | :21:37. | |
mountain can down the road. By injected thrillions of dollars into | :21:37. | :21:40. | |
the US economy you will create growth and you may get re-elected, | :21:40. | :21:45. | |
but you are postponeing the problem to a future President or future | :21:45. | :21:49. | |
generation. But can American-style growth be achieved here, by | :21:49. | :21:53. | |
borrowing even more money. On the latest projections they will borrow | :21:53. | :21:57. | |
something like �150 billion more over the course of this parliament | :21:57. | :22:01. | |
than they originally intended. They are borrowing �150 billion more | :22:01. | :22:06. | |
because their plan has failed. Tax revenues aren't as strong as they | :22:06. | :22:11. | |
hoped, because the social security bill is stronger than they hoped. | :22:11. | :22:14. | |
They are borrowing money, it would be better to borrow money to get | :22:14. | :22:17. | |
the economy moving, paying people to be in work, rather than paying | :22:17. | :22:21. | |
people to be out of work. Could there be a third way? Can an | :22:21. | :22:27. | |
economic stimulus and cutbacks work in tandem. Francois Hollande thinks | :22:27. | :22:35. | |
so, he's already banging that drum in Brussels? Austerity and growth | :22:35. | :22:39. | |
are not mutually exclusive. Some countries need to take tough action | :22:39. | :22:43. | |
to reduce their amount of borrowing, it is the rate which you do it, | :22:43. | :22:46. | |
what is sensible. If you don't have policies for growth, the risk is | :22:46. | :22:49. | |
you crash the economy, we are back in a double-dip recession now, if | :22:49. | :22:53. | |
you look at what is happening in Europe, it is a scene of | :22:53. | :22:57. | |
unremitting gloom. Tomorrow David Cameron will attempt to steel our | :22:57. | :23:01. | |
nerves for the long but rewarding battle against debt. The economy | :23:01. | :23:04. | |
and ultimately voters will decide whether it is worth fighting for | :23:04. | :23:09. | |
now. Here now are the Conservative MP, | :23:09. | :23:12. | |
and former adviser to the Chancellor, Matthew Hancock, the | :23:12. | :23:19. | |
economist, Ann Pettifor, and the chief executive of the city broker, | :23:19. | :23:23. | |
Priebke, Terry Smith. It is -- Priebke preb. It is clear that | :23:23. | :23:29. | |
austerity isn't doing anything for growth? As Alastair Darling said in | :23:29. | :23:34. | |
the clip there, the two aren't mutually exclusive. You need to | :23:34. | :23:37. | |
deal with the deficit to have sustainable growth. We have the | :23:37. | :23:41. | |
lowest interest rates since 1703, we found out this week. We can cite | :23:41. | :23:45. | |
any number of statistics, the fact is we are back in recession. Only | :23:45. | :23:49. | |
today the growth forecasts were downgraded? Of course they were. | :23:49. | :23:52. | |
That is nothing to do with austerity? There is a sharp | :23:52. | :23:55. | |
increase in commodity price, and we have seen from the first package | :23:55. | :23:58. | |
what has happened in the eurozone. But the crucial question is, and | :23:58. | :24:03. | |
the question that people will be asking, and we should all ask, is | :24:03. | :24:07. | |
what can you do to try to get out of this, given that we are in a | :24:07. | :24:11. | |
debt crisis. And if you...Everybody Wants to get out of it. But the | :24:11. | :24:15. | |
other way of putting your excuse, is that Government policy has had | :24:15. | :24:22. | |
no effect? That's not true. It is all external factors, the euro | :24:22. | :24:27. | |
crisis, commodity prices and the rest? Let me tell you where it has | :24:27. | :24:31. | |
had an effect, the deficit has come back down by a quarter over the | :24:31. | :24:35. | |
past two years. That means we are a quarter of the way, broadly, | :24:35. | :24:38. | |
through the difficulties. You know, does that mean there is three | :24:38. | :24:43. | |
quarters to go, and does it mean it will be difficult? Yes. But we are | :24:43. | :24:47. | |
a quarter of the way through, the deficit is coming down, yes it is | :24:47. | :24:51. | |
difficult. There are head winds that aren't helping, but if you | :24:51. | :24:54. | |
don't try to deal with your debts, then you won't get growth. We have | :24:54. | :25:00. | |
seen in the euroarea, what happens if you leave it. Where is the | :25:00. | :25:04. | |
evidence that the austerity is hurting growth? Well, it's in | :25:04. | :25:08. | |
Europe, across Europe, of course. What about in this country? In this | :25:08. | :25:13. | |
country it is in the evidence that Mr Justin King of Sainsbury's has | :25:13. | :25:16. | |
given us. That customers are not walking through his door. It is in | :25:16. | :25:21. | |
the evidence of the banks, who are frightened to lend because they can | :25:21. | :25:26. | |
see the contraction getting worse. It is in the evidence of the | :25:26. | :25:30. | |
companies who have are hording -- who have been hording cash, because | :25:30. | :25:33. | |
they are so in fear of the Government policies and contraction, | :25:33. | :25:36. | |
that they will not take risks in investment. That is where the | :25:36. | :25:39. | |
evidence is. It is in rising unemployment. I know the | :25:39. | :25:42. | |
unemployment numbers today looked a little bit better, but the vacancy | :25:42. | :25:48. | |
numbers were down. And the long- term unemployed were up. I think it | :25:48. | :25:53. | |
is better when there is good figures, like today's unemployment | :25:53. | :25:57. | |
figures, to welcome those figures, and welcome areas that are growing, | :25:57. | :26:00. | |
like exports to the rest of the world that isn't Europe, which are | :26:00. | :26:06. | |
up by 16%. There are good signs. But the point is this, you can't | :26:06. | :26:09. | |
borrow your way out of debt. I have said it endlessly. Can I say about | :26:09. | :26:14. | |
that, if that is the case, why did the Chancellor say in his 2012 | :26:14. | :26:19. | |
budget, just recently, that net borrowing was going to increase by | :26:19. | :26:22. | |
�100 billion, over the next year or two. Because the size of the | :26:22. | :26:26. | |
deficit that he's dealing with is vast. And of course, it has to come | :26:26. | :26:30. | |
down, you have to deal with the deficit before you can then deal | :26:30. | :26:35. | |
with the debt. This is the appropriate point to bring you in, | :26:35. | :26:38. | |
you claim there isn't any real austerity here? There is no | :26:39. | :26:43. | |
austerity so far. Even with the Government's figures. The reduction | :26:43. | :26:48. | |
in Government spending is 1.5%, that is 0.7% of GDP. That can't | :26:48. | :26:52. | |
have caused the problem with the economy, it is just not big enough. | :26:52. | :26:56. | |
The economy never got out of recession. He's right that the | :26:56. | :26:59. | |
policy hasn't caused the difficulties, but he has the wrong | :26:59. | :27:03. | |
policy, because he hasn't got one at all? To debate the policy in a | :27:03. | :27:08. | |
moment. We never got out of the recession. �500 billion of deficit | :27:08. | :27:11. | |
spending, �300 billion on quanative easing, and the interest rates are | :27:12. | :27:16. | |
the lowest for 300 years. Einstein said, repeating the same action and | :27:16. | :27:20. | |
expecting the same result is a definition of insanity, it hasn't | :27:20. | :27:23. | |
produced a result in the economy. List a few things you think should | :27:23. | :27:28. | |
be cut in Government spending? only things you can cut in those | :27:28. | :27:30. | |
circumstances, the benefits bill, and the National Health Service. | :27:30. | :27:33. | |
You can't make very big cuts elsewhere. Cut the health service | :27:33. | :27:36. | |
and the number of people on benefits, presumptionably and the | :27:37. | :27:41. | |
level of benefits? You can't make cuts by tinkering at the edges, | :27:41. | :27:46. | |
that is the definition of austerity, in your view? It is not really the | :27:46. | :27:50. | |
only part of austerity. I think you need to cut the tax take, and the | :27:50. | :27:54. | |
whole size of the state, unless you believe the Government is more | :27:55. | :27:58. | |
efficient at spending money than the individuals. The Government is | :27:58. | :28:03. | |
doing just that. It can't cut the Welfare Bill, it can't cut pensions. | :28:03. | :28:08. | |
It is having real difficulties with that bit of the budget. But it is | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
slashing capital investment. Let's look at the facts here. It is | :28:12. | :28:15. | |
slashing productive investment. amount of people on out of work | :28:15. | :28:20. | |
benefits is lower than at the election two years ago. And the | :28:20. | :28:25. | |
benefits have been capped, there is a big row about that. And making | :28:25. | :28:31. | |
sure that people have to try to get work, if they are getting benefit. | :28:31. | :28:34. | |
Terry Smith is no clown, he understands how economies work, he | :28:34. | :28:40. | |
has come to a completely different conclusion? Not the case. Terry | :28:40. | :28:45. | |
said there are cuts. There has been no significant austerity. | :28:45. | :28:52. | |
deficit is down. Is my 1.5% number correct. I will explain. Is it | :28:52. | :28:58. | |
correct? I take it that's yes, is it. No, my number is not correct? | :28:58. | :29:05. | |
The deficit is down from �160 billion at the time of the election, | :29:05. | :29:09. | |
and down now. Have you cut spending by more than 1.5% of Government | :29:09. | :29:13. | |
spending in the last year? Yes. must have missed that, I thought it | :29:14. | :29:18. | |
was about �680 million now, it was about �690 million before? You have | :29:18. | :29:24. | |
to look at the impact. Terry, 270,000 Government civil servants | :29:24. | :29:29. | |
have lost their jobs. That's cuts in spending. What they haven't done | :29:29. | :29:34. | |
and what hasn't happened, is that spending on the revenue side, on | :29:34. | :29:40. | |
benefits and pensions has risen. But what is being cut is spending | :29:40. | :29:43. | |
on managed expenditure and capital investment. Very drastically cut. | :29:43. | :29:49. | |
That's the bit of investment, Jeremy, that will generate jobs and | :29:49. | :29:53. | |
generate income for companies like Sainsbury's. And construction | :29:53. | :29:58. | |
companies. You are comparing apples and oranges here, do you have any | :29:58. | :30:03. | |
inclination towards either an apple or orange. Which two on these two | :30:03. | :30:08. | |
in analysis do you come down in favour of? As we see somebody | :30:08. | :30:11. | |
saying that the Government is cutting too fast, and somebody | :30:11. | :30:14. | |
saying that the Government isn't cutting enough, that is normally a | :30:14. | :30:19. | |
sign that the Government is getting it about right. I would like to | :30:19. | :30:25. | |
explore an idea that Ann Pettifor has got here, explain to us the | :30:25. | :30:31. | |
thing that is usually said, you can't increase spending, to | :30:31. | :30:34. | |
increase spending increases more borrowing? The deficit doesn't tell | :30:34. | :30:37. | |
you anything about what is going on in the economy. Because the fact is, | :30:37. | :30:41. | |
the deficit is rising, or falling, because of what's happening in the | :30:41. | :30:47. | |
rest of the economy. And the fact is, we have had hollowed out from | :30:47. | :30:50. | |
the economy something like �120 billion, since the start of the | :30:50. | :30:54. | |
financial crisis. As Terry says, the Government intends to take out | :30:55. | :30:58. | |
another �85 billion. What is your solution? We have this create hole | :30:58. | :31:04. | |
in the economy, somebody has to invest in it, the private sector | :31:04. | :31:08. | |
won't because it is too nervous and indebted. The only sector that can | :31:08. | :31:13. | |
is Government, it can do that with fingerprintsing from the Bank of | :31:13. | :31:18. | |
England. The idea that the deficit doesn't matter. Is delusional. | :31:18. | :31:22. | |
is dangerous. I didn't say it didn't matter, I said it didn't | :31:22. | :31:25. | |
reflect what is really going on. Anne has discovered the secret | :31:25. | :31:30. | |
source of finance we can use is frankly delusional. The Bank of | :31:31. | :31:35. | |
England has been financing the budget deficit. It has been doing | :31:35. | :31:39. | |
it indirectly, but it has been financing the deficit. It hadn't | :31:39. | :31:42. | |
escaped our notice, if it is that easy, why not get the Bank of | :31:42. | :31:46. | |
England to lend the Government all the money it needs to pay off the | :31:46. | :31:49. | |
debt. Why didn't we think of that? It is not enough for the money it | :31:49. | :31:54. | |
pay off the debt. It has to be invested in sound infrastructure | :31:54. | :31:58. | |
projects, which, for example, would boost private sector activity in | :31:59. | :32:02. | |
the construction sector. Which would boost economic activity, | :32:02. | :32:06. | |
enable companies to make profits, people who have jobs, and income to | :32:06. | :32:10. | |
be generated to pay the taxes which will reduce the deficit. This idea | :32:10. | :32:15. | |
that you spend more, and therefore borrow less is frankly, for the | :32:15. | :32:19. | |
birds. I think it is delusional. The British economy is predicted to | :32:19. | :32:23. | |
grow at just under 1% next year. China is hoping for 7.5%. In the | :32:23. | :32:27. | |
space of a single generation the size of China's economy has | :32:27. | :32:32. | |
overtaken most of those in western Europe. But China's also set to | :32:32. | :32:36. | |
overtake Europe in another key area. Thanks to longer life expectancy, | :32:36. | :32:41. | |
and plummeting birth rates, China's population is getting older. | :32:41. | :32:47. | |
Mukul Devichand roorns, 30 years after China implemented its one- | :32:47. | :32:56. | |
child policy, the Government faces a crisis of too many elderly. | :32:56. | :33:01. | |
This is one of the fastest-ageing places on earth. In Shanghai there | :33:01. | :33:06. | |
are twice as many old people as there are young. As the city has | :33:06. | :33:11. | |
developed, people are having fewer and fewer children. The one-child | :33:11. | :33:16. | |
policy has accelerated the decline in the birth rate. And where | :33:16. | :33:22. | |
Shanghai leads, China follows. Break-neck economic growth in | :33:22. | :33:25. | |
China's cities, has been accompanied by an astonishingly | :33:25. | :33:31. | |
rapid ageing of their populations. China is growing old, at a rate | :33:31. | :33:34. | |
unprecedented in human history. This ageing could bring the | :33:34. | :33:42. | |
country's seemingly irrepressible March out of poverty to an end. | :33:42. | :33:46. | |
This woman spend her working life in a factory, her husband is a | :33:46. | :33:50. | |
tailor, they have been married for 53 years. | :33:50. | :33:56. | |
Now, she has Alzheimer's. Every day he bathes her, dresses her, and | :33:56. | :34:01. | |
brings her to this drop-in centre for lunch. | :34:01. | :34:08. | |
He says it is hardest when she doesn't know who he is. | :34:08. | :34:12. | |
TRANSLATION: Before she got sick she was full of life. She loved the | :34:12. | :34:15. | |
opera, now she doesn't really understand what is going on. Her | :34:15. | :34:20. | |
mind is gone. Life has become difficult. But I must take care of | :34:20. | :34:28. | |
her, anyone in my position would do the same. This is all the help the | :34:28. | :34:32. | |
state can provide. A basic welfare system does exist in China, but it | :34:32. | :34:37. | |
is many years behind anything in the west. Nationally, the | :34:37. | :34:41. | |
Government says ten million care workers are needed. So far, only | :34:41. | :34:45. | |
100,000 have been trained. Providing for the elderly will | :34:45. | :34:51. | |
create a massive drain on China's future wealth. | :34:51. | :34:57. | |
Chinese society has not been fully prepared for its pension and social | :34:58. | :35:02. | |
security systems, so people are worried, what will be the case if | :35:02. | :35:05. | |
they do not have kids, and they do not have the social security, what | :35:06. | :35:11. | |
can they do when they become old? Traditionally in Chinese families, | :35:11. | :35:15. | |
this didn't used to be a problem. The elderly were cared for at home. | :35:15. | :35:19. | |
But as the birth rate is declining, there are now not enough of the | :35:19. | :35:24. | |
younger generation, to look after the old. | :35:24. | :35:27. | |
Those what who can afford it end up somewhere like this, recently | :35:27. | :35:37. | |
:35:37. | :35:38. | ||
opened, one of the new private care homes in the city. This man has | :35:38. | :35:43. | |
been here since he had a stroke, four months ago. | :35:43. | :35:49. | |
His daughter wishes she could care for him at home. But, she says, she | :35:50. | :35:58. | |
needs to go out to work. She, herself, has only one child. She | :35:58. | :36:08. | |
:36:08. | :36:08. | ||
worries about who will look after her, when her time comes. By the | :36:08. | :36:14. | |
year 2050, one third of China's population will be over 60. That's | :36:14. | :36:19. | |
450 million people. This huge imbalance has been caused by | :36:19. | :36:22. | |
China's showcase development policy, the one-child programme. It has | :36:22. | :36:27. | |
forced down the numbers of young people, just when they are needed | :36:27. | :36:37. | |
:36:37. | :36:42. | ||
most. China's economic model is in danger. | :36:42. | :36:50. | |
The lack of young workers is already slowing down the economy. | :36:50. | :36:54. | |
Having too few young people is a serious threat in itself. China's | :36:54. | :36:58. | |
economic engine has been fuelled by a seemingly endless supply of cheap | :36:58. | :37:03. | |
and young labour. If that supply now runs out, then China's ability | :37:03. | :37:08. | |
to keep on growing could be seriously undermined. | :37:08. | :37:12. | |
In this factory south of Shanghai, workers make jewellery and | :37:12. | :37:17. | |
accessories that end up in high streets across Britain. Research | :37:17. | :37:20. | |
suggests that one quarter of China's economic growth has come | :37:20. | :37:25. | |
from the supply of cheap labour. It is here that the impact of | :37:25. | :37:30. | |
demographic change is being felt most keenly. The shortage of the | :37:30. | :37:35. | |
labour force is inevitable to increase the labour costs. This | :37:35. | :37:44. | |
will force China to restructure its economy. To move from the labour- | :37:44. | :37:53. | |
intensive export-orientated economy, towards a more capital-intensive or | :37:53. | :37:55. | |
technology-intensive economy. aren't enough young people for the | :37:55. | :37:59. | |
model on which China's economy depends. In addition main migrant | :37:59. | :38:07. | |
workers have moved back to their home towns, to care for their | :38:07. | :38:11. | |
elderly parents. Around Shanghai there is an acute labour shortage. | :38:11. | :38:14. | |
TRANSLATION: It is really tough to find new workers because the cost | :38:14. | :38:18. | |
of labour keeps increasing. Workers are asking for more pay and better | :38:19. | :38:23. | |
conditions when we hire them. At the same time as labour costs | :38:23. | :38:33. | |
are rising, the pressure from retailers is for ever cheaper stock. | :38:33. | :38:38. | |
TRANSLATION: We are becoming uncompetitive, it is affordable for | :38:38. | :38:44. | |
companies to move from China to Thailand. All of this means that | :38:44. | :38:50. | |
China's one-child policy is beginning to lose loosen, and | :38:50. | :38:54. | |
Shanghai is in the vanguard. In this family planning clinic, young | :38:54. | :39:00. | |
women are no longer instructed in contraception and abortion, but in | :39:00. | :39:03. | |
fertility, and how to conceive more successfully. In Chinese terms, | :39:03. | :39:09. | |
this is something of a revolution. TRANSLATION: We hope people will | :39:09. | :39:13. | |
follow the regulations and have a second child. We are offering | :39:13. | :39:17. | |
parenting classes as well as fertility clinics. If you are an | :39:17. | :39:21. | |
only child and you marry someone else who is also an only child, you | :39:21. | :39:24. | |
have always been allowed to have two children. But now we are trying | :39:24. | :39:32. | |
to encourage everyone to do so. many Chinese people aren't | :39:32. | :39:38. | |
listening. The majority in Shanghai still choose to have one child. | :39:38. | :39:41. | |
They believe their children's life chances are better, that they | :39:41. | :39:46. | |
themselves are richer in small families. | :39:46. | :39:50. | |
In fact, some academics think China's future lies in a smaller | :39:50. | :39:54. | |
population. That increasing the birth rate is a matter of buying | :39:54. | :40:01. | |
time. Amidst vast social change. To modify the policy cannot reverse | :40:01. | :40:06. | |
the ageing process, but at least it can slow down the process, | :40:06. | :40:10. | |
providing more time for Chinese society to get ready, to prepare | :40:10. | :40:19. | |
for the restructure of the society. In that case we can cope with | :40:19. | :40:24. | |
ageing issues more easily and properly. One thing this couple | :40:24. | :40:29. | |
don't have, is time. He says as long as he has the | :40:29. | :40:34. | |
strength, he will always care for his wife. He says if she was put in | :40:34. | :40:39. | |
care home, he would be apart from her, at least this way they can be | :40:39. | :40:45. | |
together. TRANSLATION: There's nothing more | :40:45. | :40:51. | |
we can do now. At least we have the past. All we can hope for is that | :40:51. | :40:55. | |
her illness progresses slowly, and we can both enjoy what little time | :40:55. | :41:03. | |
we have left. China is facing up to the fact that it is ageing. And at | :41:03. | :41:07. | |
a rate that few societies have ever experienced. It will have to find a | :41:07. | :41:12. | |
way to pay for the costs of ageing, without the economic wealth | :41:12. | :41:19. | |
supplied by so many young people. There is a special phrase for why | :41:19. | :41:25. | |
they worry, "China might become too old to get rich". | :41:25. | :41:29. | |
As we all know, thanks to the experiences of Jim Hacker, real | :41:29. | :41:34. | |
power in Britain is wielded by masses of anonymous sir Humphreys, | :41:34. | :41:40. | |
that used to be the case until Tony Blair and Malcolm Tucker came along. | :41:40. | :41:45. | |
Now the man known as David Cameron's brain, Steve Hilton, has | :41:45. | :41:50. | |
disappeared on a Saab battle. He was known for wandering - | :41:50. | :41:54. | |
sabbatical, he was known for running around without any shoes | :41:54. | :41:59. | |
and coming up with original ideas. Who does the blue-sky thinking now. | :41:59. | :42:05. | |
And in these storm tossed times, do we need more blue sky. The nearest | :42:05. | :42:09. | |
we can get to it are here, Danny Kruger, who now runs a charity, | :42:10. | :42:16. | |
helping prisoners and young people at risk of crime, and an adviser to | :42:16. | :42:20. | |
Ed Miliband until last week, and prefers the company of the Social | :42:20. | :42:24. | |
Research Unit now. Where do ideas in Government come from? Probably | :42:24. | :42:29. | |
the ideas we had in opposition, mostly. Interestingly the most | :42:29. | :42:32. | |
inventive stuff seems to have been thought up beforehand. The job of | :42:32. | :42:36. | |
Government, often seems to be the job of handling the daily crises. | :42:36. | :42:40. | |
Can I pay tribute to Steve Hilton, I worked with him in opposition. I | :42:40. | :42:44. | |
don't know what it was like working in Government, it must be have been | :42:44. | :42:49. | |
frustrating, he found it frustrating working with us in | :42:49. | :42:52. | |
opposition. He was one of the most imaginative I have worked with. And | :42:52. | :42:57. | |
contributed a huge amount to the creativeness and inventiveness the | :42:57. | :43:02. | |
party came to Government with. have been living in this mail trom | :43:02. | :43:07. | |
and firmive of ideas in opposition? Is that what it is like? There are | :43:07. | :43:13. | |
lots of places political parties get ideas, in Government or | :43:13. | :43:19. | |
opposition. They look at research, universities, they look abroad. | :43:19. | :43:23. | |
This idea that we don't have enough big ideas out there, that is not | :43:23. | :43:27. | |
the issue with what's begin doing going on with Government in the | :43:27. | :43:30. | |
last -- been going on with the Government in the last few years. | :43:30. | :43:33. | |
Nobody will say this Government hasn't had big ideas, they clearly | :43:33. | :43:37. | |
have. The real issue is how you apply those ideas. What your | :43:37. | :43:45. | |
analysis of an issue is. They do need to reform the NHS and what | :43:45. | :43:48. | |
does success look like? Until you have those things straight, it is | :43:48. | :43:51. | |
hard to understand how the big ideas will come along and change | :43:51. | :43:55. | |
the world. The circumstances under which you take office, and try to | :43:55. | :43:59. | |
act out these schemes that you cooked up in opposition, are | :43:59. | :44:02. | |
clearly critical, there are times for great ideas, and there are | :44:02. | :44:05. | |
times for just trying to get your head down and get on with things, | :44:05. | :44:08. | |
aren't there? This Government is occasional low stuck on the horns | :44:08. | :44:12. | |
that have dilemma. They have some very large ideas, and they have | :44:12. | :44:16. | |
come into office with a clear determination to change the country. | :44:16. | :44:20. | |
And yet they are managing a terrible economic situation, as | :44:20. | :44:24. | |
well as all sorts of external things going on, and the daily | :44:24. | :44:29. | |
crisis of Government. It looks like and feels like, from the outside | :44:29. | :44:32. | |
looking in, they are constantly battling the determination to | :44:32. | :44:35. | |
change the country and do radical and substantial things, with a need | :44:35. | :44:38. | |
to manage the crisis of the day. It must be incredibly difficult to | :44:38. | :44:42. | |
balance the two. If I could just jump in, I would say never | :44:42. | :44:45. | |
underestimate the power of the small idea. It is not just about | :44:45. | :44:48. | |
big ideas. For example, if you want to improve how children are doing | :44:49. | :44:53. | |
at school, we know that the most important thing is the quality of | :44:53. | :44:57. | |
teach anything their classroom. Trying to change that experience | :44:57. | :45:01. | |
through one big idea, one silver bullet, one structural reform of | :45:01. | :45:05. | |
our school systems very, very difficult. We know it is the small | :45:06. | :45:11. | |
things that add up to change. How we train our teachers, how we teach | :45:11. | :45:13. | |
our professional development in schools. I think it is very | :45:13. | :45:17. | |
important. Big ideas are great, we all need them. If we are really | :45:17. | :45:20. | |
interested in serious change, you shouldn't underestimate the power | :45:20. | :45:26. | |
of doing lots of small things well. What about this idea, and one has | :45:26. | :45:32. | |
heard it promogated, Tony Blair talked about it a bit, the | :45:32. | :45:35. | |
institutional boundaries, notably exsemplified in the Civil Service, | :45:35. | :45:39. | |
always said to be a great break upon change s that fair on the | :45:39. | :45:43. | |
Civil Service, do you think? haven't worked in Government, you | :45:43. | :45:46. | |
sense the frustration when you watch politicians trying to get | :45:46. | :45:49. | |
their way, and having spoken about the grand changes they are going to | :45:49. | :45:54. | |
make, finding them some what diluted in office. But I also think | :45:54. | :45:59. | |
there is a sense in which they are obliged by their own ideology, the | :45:59. | :46:02. | |
loyalties they have to their party, and what they said in opposition, | :46:02. | :46:05. | |
and to the grand ideas they came into Government with, then they run | :46:05. | :46:08. | |
into the sands of reality. That is probably a healthy process, tough | :46:08. | :46:12. | |
run fast through the sand, it is good they start running quickly. | :46:12. | :46:16. | |
that your impression too? I don't think that is quite fair. NHS | :46:16. | :46:19. | |
reform, for example, nobody would argue the Government has found | :46:19. | :46:23. | |
itself in some of the difficulties they have around NHS reform, | :46:23. | :46:30. | |
because the Civil Service has acted as a break on reform. -- brake on | :46:30. | :46:35. | |
reform, but it is the politics that are an issue and the way it | :46:35. | :46:39. | |
developed in the political system. I don't think it is fair to say the | :46:39. | :46:42. | |
Civil Service are always a brake on what ministers want to. Do I would | :46:42. | :46:45. | |
argue you see politicians who want too much change, and too much | :46:45. | :46:49. | |
change can be just as bad, as not enough. | :46:49. | :46:59. | |
:46:59. | :47:25. | ||
Thank you very much. Tomorrow That's all tonight. Emily will be | :47:26. | :47:35. | |
:47:36. | :47:39. | ||
here with more tomorrow, until then, goodnight. | :47:39. | :47:42. | |
Good evening, not as cold tonight as last night. Thanks to a lot more | :47:42. | :47:46. | |
cloud. It makes for grey start in the morning. Some brightness across | :47:46. | :47:49. | |
north-east England, that will disappear. Brive, bright or sunny | :47:49. | :47:55. | |
spells across the south. Northern Britain dull. Outbreaks of rain and | :47:55. | :47:58. | |
drizzle coming throughout the day across northern England. Generally | :47:58. | :48:01. | |
from Birmingham southwards it will be dry. Any showers in the south | :48:01. | :48:05. | |
will be few and far between. Cloudier than today, still some | :48:05. | :48:08. | |
brightness coming through. A hint or two of sunshine, just about | :48:08. | :48:12. | |
lifting the temperatures into the teens. Feeling cool because of the | :48:12. | :48:16. | |
strength of the breeze. The breeze picking up slowly across Wales. A | :48:16. | :48:19. | |
bright day in the south. The outbreaks of rain and drizzle on | :48:20. | :48:24. | |
the north coast, rain and drizzle will come and go throughout the day. | :48:24. | :48:30. | |
Dull, dump and chilly, temperatures stuck in single figures, as across | :48:30. | :48:40. | |
:48:40. | :48:53. |