26/06/2012 Newsnight


26/06/2012

Why the latest budget U-turn? Does Northern Ireland like the Queen any more now than 35 years ago. And should hackers be employed by MI5? With Jeremy Paxman.


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Transcript


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That tax rise, the Chancellor told us, was essential to getting the

:00:12.:00:16.

economy back on track, it wasn't, it is not going to happen, not

:00:16.:00:21.

necessary, apparently. The latest Budget Day backpeddling is on fuel

:00:21.:00:24.

duty. Is this because the Government realised it couldn't get

:00:24.:00:30.

away with it, or is it also in a bit of a panic about the figures.

:00:30.:00:33.

Will it be health, education or defence to make up the half a

:00:33.:00:37.

billion hole they just blew in the Government's finances.

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No doubt the Treasury Minister, Chloe Smith, will be able to

:00:40.:00:43.

enlighten us all. When the Queen visited Northern

:00:44.:00:48.

Ireland on her silver Julilee, At the height of the Troubles, it

:00:48.:00:52.

provoked this kind of thing. Is that generation of Republicans any

:00:52.:00:57.

more pleased to see her now. If you got to meet the Queen, what

:00:57.:01:01.

would you say to her? I wouldn't say anything, I wouldn't waste my

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breath on her. And this. Hello citizens of the

:01:06.:01:12.

world, we are anonymous. It is not just them, MI5 warns of

:01:12.:01:15.

increasingly sophisticated and frequent attacks from all over

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cyberspace. Who is behind it? What do they want? And how can we

:01:20.:01:25.

protect ourselves. I'm joined by the 19-year-old who has won the

:01:25.:01:32.

country's biggest cyber security challenge.

:01:32.:01:35.

Our masterly, compassionate and thoughtful Chancellor of the

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Exchequer has felt the pain of the British people and decided to

:01:38.:01:43.

abandon his plans to raise the tax on fuel this summer, either that or

:01:43.:01:48.

we are looking at the budget omnishambles number six or seven.

:01:48.:01:53.

Last week the fuel rise was essential, this week, unnecessarily.

:01:53.:01:57.

The minister said it would cost �1.5 billion to scrap the rise,

:01:57.:02:00.

today the Treasury said it would cost only half a billion. Either

:02:00.:02:03.

the Government is playing politics with the national economy, or the

:02:03.:02:09.

economy is in such an appallingly chaotic state, it justifies panic

:02:09.:02:14.

reactions like this. Our Economics Editor, Paul Mason, is here.

:02:14.:02:17.

It is a good economy that whether or not this is part of a master

:02:17.:02:21.

plan to save the British economy from doom, or it is something they

:02:21.:02:24.

thought up this morning. We are told the cabinet met this morning

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and didn't discuss any changes to the fuel duty rise. And then, at

:02:29.:02:34.

12.30, Conservative MPs were sent something called a lines to take,

:02:34.:02:40.

this is what MPs get sent from all parties, to tell them what to say.

:02:40.:02:47.

They were told that the demand for the freeze, Labour's calls were

:02:47.:02:50.

hypocrisy of the worst kind, then it came that the Government enact

:02:50.:02:56.

add freeze on the duty. And it will cost, as they say, �550 billion to

:02:56.:03:00.

do that. Unusually, this is not something balanced by an immediate

:03:00.:03:05.

change in spending or tax elsewhere. It is something actually we don't

:03:05.:03:10.

know how it will be paid for. If we were in an election we would hear

:03:10.:03:14.

the Government being accused of an uncosted tax move. It is all to

:03:14.:03:18.

play for. We might find out what is the situation soon. These U-turns

:03:18.:03:24.

are coming thick and fast. To those waiting with bathed breath

:03:24.:03:29.

for that favourite media catch phrase, "the U-turn", I have only

:03:29.:03:36.

one thing to say, you turn if you want to! Actually, George Osborne

:03:36.:03:43.

is for turning. Since the budget, he's U-turned on the pasty tax, the

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caravan tax, the charities' tax, and today it was a planned tax on

:03:47.:03:52.

petrol, fuel duty. I can tell people we will now stop any rise in

:03:52.:04:02.
:04:02.:04:02.

fuel duty this August, and freeze it for the rest of the year. This

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means that fuel duty will be 10p a litre lower than plans by the last

:04:08.:04:13.

Labour Government. The move came as Labour, the SNP and Plaid Cymru

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were forcing a vote on the planned increase. It left the Shadow

:04:17.:04:22.

Chancellor, not for the first time, performing the political equivalent

:04:22.:04:28.

of a victory roll. We have now had a U-turn on pasties, caravans,

:04:28.:04:34.

skips, churches, and now today a U- turn on fuel, which we welcome.

:04:34.:04:38.

Though today's move follow as campaign by the Sun Newspaper, and

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Tory backbenchers, there is more to this than populisim. Last week the

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Government pumped �80 billion into the banks significant tem, and

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there could be another �50 billion of money printing on the way. It

:04:51.:04:56.

looks like there is a stimulus, and this bit, definitely is, fiscal.

:04:56.:05:00.

The reason for that is clear, the Governor of the Bank of England

:05:00.:05:05.

ripped up a forecast he made six months ago today, and went into his

:05:05.:05:10.

full doomsayier act. We are in the middle of a deep crisis, with

:05:10.:05:14.

enormous challenges to put our own banking system right, and

:05:14.:05:17.

challenges from the rest of the world that they too are struggling

:05:17.:05:21.

with. Sir Mervyn said he had no idea what is about to happen in the

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your stkron, and predicting a return to -- in the eurozone, and

:05:27.:05:32.

predicting a return to normality in Britain would be stab in the dark.

:05:32.:05:36.

When they started most people, including ourselves, still didn't

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believe we would be right in the middle and the thick of it five

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years later. All the way through I said to this committee, I don't

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think yet think we are half way through. That I have always said

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that, and I'm still saying T that tells you a lot about how my

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estimate how long this will go on for is expanding with time. With

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the eurozone in recession, and a sense of crisis in Berlin, there is

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a nightmare scenario, where the export market collapses, and the

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growth slows here, and it goes off course. The tax yield this year is

:06:12.:06:17.

lower than expected and the deficit higher already this year. Right now

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George Osborne's credibility is a precious commodity. Billions upon

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billions of pounds are riding on the fact that we have a Chancellor

:06:24.:06:27.

that says what he means and means what he says. It doesn't help one

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little bit for him to keep making U-turn after U-turn after U-turn on

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this budget. U-turns don't seem to stop, we have had a month of them

:06:36.:06:42.

now. Ultimately, this will undermine Osborne's credibility.

:06:42.:06:46.

money terms, today's U-turn is bigger d in money terms, today's U-

:06:46.:06:54.

turn is bigger than all the rest. It is �550 billion, and made up of

:06:54.:06:57.

departmental spending cuts, education, health, who knows, it

:06:57.:07:01.

won't be announced until November. The danger for Osborne is not

:07:01.:07:05.

primarily that he looks weak and decisive, but on the big issue, the

:07:05.:07:09.

deficit, he's sticking to Plan A. It is just when you launch and

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cancel tax increase, at a rate of one a week, you can begin to look

:07:14.:07:19.

incompetent. This is a followership, rather than leadership. They

:07:19.:07:24.

basically came up with a plan, and if people didn't like it they came

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up with another one. You can argue it is a great modern way of

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governing with opinion polling and decision making, or you can argue

:07:32.:07:36.

it is indecisive and undermining George Osborne's own judgment. If

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he says he's going to do something, there is a lot of money now riding

:07:39.:07:44.

on he's going to do it. Meanwhile drivers, pasty eerts, caravan

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owners and chuggers unite, right now it feels like every day is

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Budget Day. Chloe Smith, the Treasury Minister,

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is here with us, when were you told of the change of plan? As a

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minister in the Treasury, and dealing with fuel matters, this has

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been under consideration for some time. When was the decision taken?

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As I say, it has been under consideration for some time. When

:08:06.:08:10.

was the decision taken? The Prime Minister and the Chancellor take

:08:10.:08:14.

these decisions between them. were you told then? I have been

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involved in this for some time. didn't take the decision, you say

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the Chancellor and the Prime Minister did, when were you told?

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We had a collective discussion of that in due course, and although I

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can't give you the full glory details. Did you -- did it happen

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today? I can't tell you the ins and the outs. Why isn't it appropriate?

:08:39.:08:43.

You are coming here to defend a changele policy, and you can't even

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tell me when you were told the change of policy was? As a minister

:08:47.:08:49.

in the Treasury I have been involved in the discussions for

:08:49.:08:52.

some time. As I said to you, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor

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talk those decision, I can't give awe running commentry on who said

:08:56.:09:00.

what. I'm not asking for that, I'm asking for the statement of fact of

:09:00.:09:04.

when you were told, you were told some time today, clearly, was it

:09:04.:09:07.

before or after lunch? I'm not going to give you a commentry on

:09:08.:09:14.

who says what and when. I just want to know when were you told what the

:09:14.:09:19.

change of policy was? This has been under discussion for some weeks.

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And at some point during those several weeks, they communicated to

:09:24.:09:27.

you that there had been a decision to change the policy? Indeed, and

:09:28.:09:33.

today in front of parliament we revealed to parliament, as is right

:09:33.:09:37.

and proper, to parliament, that we were planning to help households

:09:37.:09:41.

and businesss in this way. Is it hard for you to defend a policy you

:09:41.:09:45.

don't agree with? It is not that injure me nice question, I do agree

:09:45.:09:53.

with it. You didn't in May? Go on. In May you said, it was not certain

:09:53.:09:56.

that cutting fuel duty would have a positive effect on families or

:09:56.:10:00.

businesses so, what's happened? think the point to be made out of

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that, and out of what has then been said today, is it is important to

:10:04.:10:08.

do what you think you can to help households and businesses in a

:10:08.:10:12.

world we are facing, I this think your introduction pulled some of

:10:12.:10:15.

those themes out N a world we are facing which is very hard for

:10:15.:10:19.

households and businesses, you have to do what you can and in good

:10:19.:10:23.

faith so, they can get the help they need in hard times. You said

:10:23.:10:27.

it wasn't certain that cutting fuel duty would have a positive effect

:10:27.:10:31.

on families and businesses, that was on the 23rd of May, what has

:10:31.:10:36.

happened between then and now, the 25th of June? I don't think many

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things are certain in this world. There are a lot of uncertainties

:10:42.:10:47.

here? Families or businesses could save the money saved on the fuel

:10:47.:10:52.

duty, there is lots of ways it could pan out for them. Why didn't

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the Government only know about it yesterday? It is very important

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that the Government acts on concerns it hears. As I said about

:10:59.:11:03.

who, what and when, the Government will make its policy, and

:11:03.:11:07.

importantly comes to parliament with it. Isn't the cost petrol in

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people's cars a matter of legitimate interest to the

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Transport Secretary, who didn't know yesterday? Of course it is

:11:15.:11:18.

matter of legitimate interests to households and businesses. As you

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know taxes or the Chancellor, and in this case, the Chancellor and

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the Prime Minister took the decision. It is going to cost you

:11:26.:11:31.

say now, about �550 million, in contrast with your figure on the

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2rd of May, which was about �1.5 billion. You just got the sums

:11:36.:11:39.

wrong, did you? They refer to two slightly different things. The

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question being asked in May, I believe, was about a full

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cancellation, and of course, as you will be aware from today, we have

:11:47.:11:51.

been talking of deferring the cough rise to January, the two are

:11:51.:11:58.

different -- the rise to January. The two are different. You say it

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is now �550 million, can you tell us from which departments that gap

:12:03.:12:08.

will be made up? It will be made up, it will be drawn from, and around

:12:08.:12:14.

�500 million is the correct figure, because we are talking about a

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deferral. It will be drawn from underspending in departmental

:12:19.:12:22.

budgets. Where? There are a number of those available. We know for

:12:22.:12:26.

example, this year, if you look at the public sector data relosed only

:12:26.:12:30.

today, we know that under-- released only today, we know that

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the rate of spending is less than the OBR was forecast. Those figures

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are there today. Where? Last year there were �4 mill billion of those.

:12:40.:12:44.

Which department will it come from? They fall across in different ways.

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That figure will progress in the year. Name a few departments?

:12:48.:12:51.

won't do, that we will give the full details soon. Are you waiting

:12:51.:12:56.

to be told that as well? No. know do you, you know which

:12:56.:13:03.

departments have underspent (it is not possible to give awe full

:13:03.:13:13.

breakdown Undersuspect? It is not possible to give a fall -- under

:13:13.:13:18.

spent? It is not possible to give a full figure there? It is not

:13:18.:13:23.

possible at the moment to do that. Presumably you know which

:13:23.:13:27.

departments but are choosing not to? It is an aggregate figure.

:13:27.:13:32.

are choosing not to tell us which Government departments have

:13:32.:13:36.

underspent? It is an aggregate figure, that is what is important.

:13:36.:13:41.

The figure says there is enough underspend to do this. When we see

:13:41.:13:46.

that kind of funding available, we want it for the good of households

:13:46.:13:49.

and businesses. Can you confirm to us that the number one priority of

:13:49.:13:54.

your Government is reducing the deficit? It is indeed. That is the

:13:54.:13:59.

number one priority? The fact of using underspends for this, means

:13:59.:14:04.

our plan is absolutely intact, that is rightly what we seek to use for

:14:04.:14:08.

the credibility of our fiscal plan. Is this some sort of joke. How can

:14:08.:14:12.

you possibly have as a number one priority cutting the deficit, when

:14:12.:14:17.

you choose to spend and underspend in funding a tax cut o failure to

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implement a tax rise, which was -- or failure to implement a tax rise,

:14:22.:14:27.

which was on schedule? The plan overall has not changed, it remains

:14:27.:14:31.

the departmental budgets as laid out. We are look to go uets

:14:31.:14:37.

underspends in a way that is -- to use the underspends in a way that

:14:37.:14:42.

is valuable, and anyone who drives a car knows that. We heard today

:14:42.:14:48.

that Government borrowing increased by �3 billion in may? Do you want

:14:48.:14:53.

me to answer that or are you finishing the sentence.

:14:53.:14:56.

wondering why you didn't use the money to pay that down? The figures

:14:56.:15:01.

on the other side of that public sector data released today, are

:15:01.:15:06.

interesting in themselves, they relate to one-off factors,

:15:06.:15:09.

specifically in when payments were made in May and June. That is

:15:09.:15:12.

interesting in a different conversation. The fact is here we

:15:12.:15:15.

are sticking to the overall plan and taking the opportunities we

:15:15.:15:18.

have to help households and businesses. Do you ever wake up in

:15:18.:15:23.

the morning and think, my God, what will I be told today? I wake up in

:15:23.:15:26.

the morning and know that some of my constituents will really value

:15:26.:15:30.

not having to pay that little bit more on fuel price, come August,

:15:30.:15:33.

because the cost of living is pretty tight at the moment,

:15:33.:15:37.

everybody does know. That I think this move today is valuable. It is

:15:37.:15:41.

not just a Westminster village story, it is real money in real

:15:41.:15:45.

people's pockets. We all understand that? Good. Do you ever think you

:15:45.:15:47.

are incompetent? I think it is valuable to help real people in

:15:47.:15:51.

this way, I do think that is valued by people who drive.

:15:51.:15:57.

Thank you. Later in the programme, Paul Mason

:15:57.:16:05.

will be back to explain why the European Prime Minister is

:16:05.:16:12.

threatening to make Angela Merkel an offer she can't refuse. Tomorrow

:16:12.:16:19.

the Queen will meet amicablely with Martin McGuiness, a former member

:16:19.:16:23.

of the organisation that killed her cousin, Lord Mountbatten. The Queen

:16:23.:16:28.

drew crowds today. It is a real testament to how things have

:16:28.:16:35.

changed in that corner of the kingdom. Peter Taylor reported

:16:35.:16:38.

throughout the Troubles in Northern Ireland, including a response to

:16:38.:16:42.

the Queen that was quite different. The Queen set foot in a Northern

:16:42.:16:45.

Ireland that was a world away from the troubled province she visited

:16:45.:16:55.
:16:55.:16:57.

35 years ago, on her Silver Jubilee. Back then, in 1977, I made this

:16:57.:17:01.

controversial film about the Queen's tour, which took place

:17:01.:17:06.

through one of the most violent periods of the conflict. In this

:17:06.:17:11.

improving atmosphere, those with different beliefs and aspirations,

:17:12.:17:15.

understand that if this community is to survive and prosper, they

:17:16.:17:22.

must live and work together in friendship and forgiveness.

:17:22.:17:27.

It was due to be shown in peak time, on the last day of her visit. Then,

:17:27.:17:32.

ten minutes before it was due to go on air, ITV's regulators stopped

:17:32.:17:36.

the film's transmission. It later trickled out over the network in a

:17:36.:17:45.

late night slot. The ostensable reason for stopping

:17:45.:17:50.

the film was a legal problem over the inflammatory words spoken by a

:17:50.:18:00.
:18:00.:18:05.

militant Republican, we weren't allowed to hear his voice. But I

:18:05.:18:08.

have always believed the real reason for stopping the film, was

:18:08.:18:12.

because its message was in direct conflict of the spin that the then

:18:12.:18:16.

Labour Government of the day wanted to place on the visit. Ministers

:18:16.:18:20.

wanted to present the Queen as the great healer of the division

:18:20.:18:23.

between the two communities. Historically she was symbolic of

:18:23.:18:28.

the division itself. I saw how the visit highlighted the

:18:28.:18:33.

bitter empty between loyalists and republicans. There was to be no

:18:33.:18:36.

healing here. Which don't accept a British Queen, we never will accept

:18:36.:18:43.

a British Queen. We don't want her here at all. She is not our Queen.

:18:43.:18:48.

The second day of the visit, just before the royal helicopter was due

:18:48.:18:52.

to land...In 1977, security was so precare yu, that Her Majesty wasn't

:18:52.:18:55.

allowed to spend -- precarious, that Her Majesty wasn't allowed to

:18:56.:19:03.

spend a night in the province. She was helicoptered in, having spent a

:19:04.:19:08.

night offshore. Cheer was was from a carefully selected crowd. While

:19:08.:19:13.

the Queen was being welcomed at Hillsborough, the Provisional IRA

:19:13.:19:16.

mounted a roadblock in an estate a few miles away. We were told

:19:16.:19:22.

earlier in the day a snub to the Queen was planned. This was it,

:19:22.:19:27.

more propaganda than military exercise. Perhaps more our benefit

:19:27.:19:32.

or a morale booster for supporters. It lasted more than five minutes,

:19:32.:19:39.

but within half a mile of an army post out of sight. 3,000 supporter

:19:39.:19:49.
:19:49.:19:52.

of the IRA hailed "Queen Elizabeth of death" down the road.

:19:52.:19:57.

organised a march to show she had no support in this area of Belfast.

:19:57.:20:03.

We weren't allowed in the city centre, the march was banned.

:20:03.:20:09.

After the preliminary skirmish, battle commenced. The army snap

:20:09.:20:12.

squad tries to outflank the rioters, but is driven back. This is the

:20:13.:20:22.
:20:23.:20:37.

ugly face of Ulster. This is the In 1977, the unionist politician,

:20:37.:20:43.

John Taylor, told me the IRA was on the run. Five years earlier he had

:20:43.:20:48.

been machine gunned by the official IRA.

:20:48.:20:52.

How do Protestants regard the Queen's visit? They were delighted

:20:52.:20:57.

she has come, for several years they were complaining that there

:20:57.:21:00.

appeared to be little interest by the Royal Family and the problems

:21:00.:21:04.

we were having in Northern Ireland. They are thrilled. It comes when

:21:04.:21:06.

changes are taking place in Northern Ireland, and it does

:21:06.:21:11.

appear that the IRA are in retreat. John Taylor's predictions proved

:21:11.:21:16.

premature, two years later the IRA murdered the Queen's cousin, Lord

:21:16.:21:19.

Mountbatten, when they blew up his boat. A bomb also killed two family

:21:20.:21:26.

relatives and a member of the crew. The IRA followed up the attack by

:21:26.:21:32.

killing 18 soldiers on the same day, in a double bombing at Warren Point.

:21:32.:21:37.

It was to be almost another 20 bloody years before the IRA ended

:21:37.:21:42.

its campaign, and Sinn Fein finally signed up to the Good Friday

:21:42.:21:52.
:21:52.:21:52.

Agreement. I reminded John Taylor, now Lord Killcluney, of what he

:21:52.:21:57.

told me all those years ago. Why did you say that? Morale was under

:21:57.:22:01.

attack, by the British majority in Northern Ireland, they had attacks

:22:01.:22:05.

from the terrorist organisations, likewise the nationalist community

:22:05.:22:08.

was increasing in numbers, so politically the British majority

:22:08.:22:14.

were under attack. And there was a suspicion that the English, Tory

:22:15.:22:20.

and Labour, could not be relied upon. So the fact that Her Majesty

:22:20.:22:23.

was coming was great for morale amongst the British majority in

:22:23.:22:29.

Northern Ireland. In 1977, I filmed the funeral of

:22:29.:22:36.

Paul McWilliams, an IRA teenager who had been shot by the army. I

:22:36.:22:40.

interviewed some of the women who had followed his coffin. We don't

:22:40.:22:42.

regard ourselves as British subjects, we are not British

:22:42.:22:47.

subjects. Do you think she's not a brave lady for coming to Belfast?

:22:47.:22:51.

No, I class her any braver than I, I think I'm braver than her, I have

:22:51.:22:54.

to live here, while the British soldiers are on about shooting

:22:54.:22:58.

people down. No I wouldn't give her any medals for coming over to

:22:58.:23:02.

Northern Ireland. I finally tracked down Eileen Shaw,

:23:02.:23:07.

and replayed the interview I did with her in 1977. Have you changed

:23:07.:23:12.

your views now, given that the Queen is about to come to Belfast

:23:12.:23:18.

again? No. In fact it has got stronger. I'm getting older,

:23:18.:23:25.

nothing's changed. The Queen is the figurehead of repression. Strip-

:23:25.:23:30.

searches and the condition of iconic republican prisoners like

:23:30.:23:36.

Marian Price, are among the issues that fuel dissidents' anger. If you

:23:36.:23:40.

got to meet the Queen what would you say to her? I wouldn't waste my

:23:40.:23:48.

breath on her. The arrival of the Queen and her

:23:48.:23:52.

Silver Jubilee visit, was cause for great celebrations in the back

:23:52.:23:58.

streets of the loyalist Shankill road. I have watched every news

:23:58.:24:02.

bulletin, read all the papers, we are proud to be British and proud

:24:02.:24:08.

to have her as our Queen. Helen Greg died some time ago, I visited

:24:08.:24:13.

the Shankill women's centre to see if royal fervour was as strong as

:24:13.:24:19.

ever. When I showed them the film, it was no surprised that it proved

:24:19.:24:25.

undiminished. But, unable to get one of the

:24:25.:24:30.

10,000 free tickets for the royal garden party tomorrow, they had at

:24:30.:24:34.

least won a cow in a charity competition, and will decorate it

:24:34.:24:42.

in Jubilee colours. I just love the Queen. I love all the Royal Family.

:24:42.:24:47.

I'm glad to see she's coming here. But will will loyalist war drums

:24:47.:24:50.

fall silent when Martin McGuiness shakes the hand of the Queen

:24:50.:24:54.

tomorrow. I would be very pleased to see him do that. It would mean

:24:54.:24:57.

the world to me, so it would. It would mean the world to a lot of

:24:57.:25:01.

people. Because the IRA murdered her cousin, Lord Mountbatten,

:25:01.:25:07.

shaking hands may be difficult for the Queen too. Yes, I think it

:25:07.:25:12.

would be a major ask on the Queen's part as well. And this is maybe

:25:12.:25:16.

massive one for the Queen to take. But it will certainly send out a

:25:16.:25:20.

strong and clear message to the people of Northern Ireland. But the

:25:20.:25:25.

Queen would shake his hand, I have no doubt whatsoever. Because of the

:25:25.:25:33.

lady that she is, she will do this. Today, the dark clouds of 1977 seem

:25:33.:25:40.

a million miles away. Private Harrison was the 270th soldier to

:25:40.:25:45.

die in Northern Ireland. Another 233 were to follow, before peace

:25:45.:25:51.

finally came. When Martin McGuiness shakes the Queen's hand tomorrow,

:25:51.:25:57.

it will be a historic event of enormous significance for both

:25:57.:26:00.

communities. Do you hope Mr McGuiness shakes Her Majesty's

:26:00.:26:06.

hand? I would hope so. I have never shaken his hand, I'm a politician,

:26:06.:26:10.

and I feel more hesitant about shaking the hands of IRA people,

:26:10.:26:14.

especially since I got ten bullets through my head at one time. Do you

:26:14.:26:18.

think Martin McGuiness should shake the Queen's hand? As a republican I

:26:18.:26:23.

have no objections in Martin McGuiness, as a joint First

:26:23.:26:27.

Minister, he also has to remember he's representing all of the

:26:27.:26:29.

community, and not just our republicanism.

:26:29.:26:33.

But, not all sections of the republican community are prepared

:26:33.:26:38.

to welcome the Queen. Last Saturday, dissidents made it abundantly clear

:26:38.:26:43.

that the Queen was an unwelcome foreign visitor.

:26:43.:26:49.

If Martin McGuiness were to meet the Queen, and shake her hand, what

:26:49.:26:55.

would your reaction be? My reaction would be Martin, wake up and smell

:26:55.:27:00.

the coffee, you're telling us your republican, you told those lads

:27:00.:27:05.

years and years ago, you don't recognise the court, you don't

:27:05.:27:09.

recognise the Queen, and a lot of people dead, young lads, mothers

:27:09.:27:13.

sitting like me, probably, sitting crying thinking about their

:27:13.:27:18.

children, and he's going to shake the hand of the woman who put them

:27:18.:27:23.

there. On his head be it, if he calls himself a republican, God

:27:23.:27:27.

help Ireland. The attitude of many republicans towards the Queen began

:27:27.:27:32.

to change when she visited Dublin last year. And laid a wreath at the

:27:32.:27:37.

memorial to those who died fighting for Irish independence. What I

:27:37.:27:41.

actually was impressed at her going to the Garden of Remembrance, in

:27:41.:27:48.

that circumstance, it did have a healing effect, unlike, in complete

:27:48.:27:52.

contrast to 1977, where it was viewed as triumphalist, and we were

:27:52.:27:56.

still being driven into the ground. I look forward to the day when we

:27:56.:28:01.

may return to enjoy, with the people of Northern Ireland, some of

:28:01.:28:06.

the better and happier times, so long awaited, and so richly

:28:06.:28:11.

deserved. When Martin McGuiness shakes the

:28:11.:28:18.

Queen's hand tomorrow, it may suggest that day has finally come.

:28:18.:28:22.

To explore the significance of this meeting are the author and film

:28:22.:28:27.

maker, Kevin Toulise, who has written one of the most detailed

:28:27.:28:37.
:28:37.:28:38.

accounts of the IRA. And joined by former prisoner and hunger striker

:28:38.:28:43.

Tommy Mckeany. What harm is there in a handshake? Ultimately you

:28:43.:28:48.

could say there is no harm in it. But it is political theatre, and a

:28:48.:28:51.

symbolism that has little meaning overall. And ultimately, I think

:28:51.:28:54.

what is happening here is this is displaysing the need for real

:28:55.:28:58.

politics in Northern Ireland, to examine the real issues that are

:28:58.:29:04.

dividing us. The lack of employment, the coming of austerity that has

:29:04.:29:08.

been produced by London. Those are the real issues that need to be

:29:09.:29:12.

addressed, that will ultimately bring this community together. This

:29:12.:29:18.

type of gesture politics, we have had 10, 15 years of gesture,

:29:18.:29:23.

symbolism, we are weighed down with symbolism. What we need now is real

:29:23.:29:27.

politics, we need to be mature enough to sit down and look at what

:29:27.:29:31.

is happening. Instead of being presented with one more gesture,

:29:31.:29:34.

this type of theatrical operation that is going to take place

:29:34.:29:38.

tomorrow, that won't really address the issues in the slightest. Why is

:29:38.:29:43.

he doing this tomorrow? I think it is a good question. You have to

:29:43.:29:49.

think of what are the republicans seeking to get out of it. I think

:29:49.:29:52.

it is part of their political strategy geared towards the sou.

:29:52.:29:55.

They want to represent themselves, not as the churlish, childish

:29:55.:30:00.

protest, who protested against the Queen last year, but as a future,

:30:00.:30:05.

potential Government. A mature statesmanlike party. Doesn't it

:30:05.:30:09.

recognise the institutionalising of the border? I think you have to

:30:09.:30:12.

remember that republicans would move to the right, to the left,

:30:12.:30:15.

they would sup with the devil himself, if they thought that was a

:30:15.:30:19.

means of getting the Brits out of Ireland. And in this case, Martin

:30:19.:30:22.

McGuiness is perfectly prepared to shake the hand of the living symbol

:30:22.:30:27.

of all that he has opposed in his life. They are still intent on

:30:27.:30:33.

coming to power in Ireland. What do you make of that, as an approach?

:30:33.:30:38.

mean, I can see some logic in what Kevin is saying, it is quite

:30:38.:30:43.

possible that this is really viewed by Sinn Fein as something that will

:30:43.:30:45.

enhance their position in the Republic of Ireland. It would be

:30:45.:30:49.

doing at the cost, I would argue, to progress here in Northern

:30:49.:30:55.

Ireland. That's ultimately that there is a serious question mark

:30:55.:31:00.

hanging over the validity and value of this meeting which is what is

:31:00.:31:04.

ultimately the institution that is the British monarchy. An

:31:04.:31:11.

institution that is redolent of hereditary power and privilege, not

:31:11.:31:14.

something that will address the problems we are faced with. The

:31:14.:31:20.

whole idea of the Monarch coming here, in terms of the unqualified

:31:20.:31:25.

support, for example, that the monarchy heralds for the British

:31:25.:31:28.

military establishment, with all the destructiveness that brings

:31:28.:31:32.

internationally not just in Ireland. It is a means to answered, he

:31:32.:31:35.

saying, a means to answered, that's all? I don't believe it is a means

:31:35.:31:39.

to an end. I think there are certain flaws in the reading of

:31:39.:31:43.

this situation, that it undermines what is a very legitimate

:31:43.:31:47.

republican position, a democratic republican position. Not just an

:31:47.:31:52.

Irish republican position, but republicans internationally have a

:31:52.:31:59.

grave ves vaigs s about -- grave reservations about the hereditary

:31:59.:32:02.

monarchy. That is another point and can be argued over any country on

:32:02.:32:07.

earth. But in this particular context of Irish republicanism,

:32:07.:32:13.

where do you judge majority opinion lies? In terms of the south, or?

:32:13.:32:17.

terms of the north? I think really that Sinn Fein have almost mined

:32:17.:32:21.

out the north. They have won as much political support as they are

:32:21.:32:26.

likely to achieve, and their depol is the south. Gerry Adams is --

:32:26.:32:29.

their goal is the south. Gerry Adams is a rising political figure,

:32:29.:32:33.

they have moved very quickly in terms of number two in polls of the

:32:33.:32:40.

political parties. The plan, really, is that in 2016, the 100th

:32:40.:32:45.

anniversary of the Easter Rising, a man will come down the steps of the

:32:45.:32:53.

GPO, he will stand on the steps and read the Easter proclamation, and

:32:53.:32:59.

Gerry Adams want s to be that man. He will be the leader of 26

:32:59.:33:05.

counties and not 32? He will be the party in the north as well. It is a

:33:05.:33:10.

way of dissolving the border. If he can't change the constitution by

:33:10.:33:17.

bombs and bullets, or change the political process in Ireland, it

:33:17.:33:20.

will be through this device. I don't think anyone should fool

:33:20.:33:23.

themselves that the goal of Sinn Fein, Gerry Adams and Martin

:33:23.:33:27.

McGuiness s to get a united Ireland, by hook or by crook, and get the

:33:27.:33:29.

Brits out. That is what they are there for. That is your objective

:33:29.:33:34.

too, isn't it? It is my objective, but it is also a democratic and

:33:34.:33:37.

socialist Republic is my objective. My concern with Sinn Fein and the

:33:37.:33:42.

Republic is, is they are moving towards the centre. That their

:33:42.:33:46.

politics will no longer be able to address the very real issues that

:33:46.:33:51.

are facing us. The issues I referred to at the outset. The real

:33:51.:33:55.

issues relating to Ireland are not relating to the monarchy and the

:33:55.:33:59.

royals, it is to the financial disaster coming to us, not just in

:33:59.:34:02.

Ireland, but right across Europe. Those are issues that will get

:34:02.:34:06.

worse and worse, we have to have an answer to that. Not through this

:34:06.:34:09.

type of symbolism, and Sinn Fein's move to the centre, Sinn Fein's

:34:09.:34:13.

move possibly to the right, will not bring with it the message and

:34:13.:34:18.

the means to address those issues, and Sinn Fein may not actually move

:34:18.:34:22.

in that position that Kevin is outlining. What Kevin is outlining

:34:22.:34:25.

is very close to the argument being made within Sinn Fein for moving in

:34:25.:34:30.

the direction that they are moving now. I think time will prove that

:34:30.:34:33.

this is a mistake. Thank you very much indeed.

:34:33.:34:39.

Now, if there ever was a time when MI5 officers wore trenchcoats and

:34:39.:34:44.

brimed hats, it is long gone. The head of the agency has disclosed

:34:44.:34:49.

that businesses in this country are under sustained attack by cyber

:34:49.:34:54.

warriors, it is investigating attack ones large companies, who

:34:54.:34:59.

the companies are he didn't say nor the companies behind them. It is

:34:59.:35:06.

computer maths and algorithms are much more use now than dead

:35:06.:35:11.

letterboxes and invisible ink. The group that calls itself Anonymous,

:35:11.:35:15.

claims "credit", if that is the word, for attacks on the systems in

:35:15.:35:18.

the Vatican, Interpol and the Chinese Government, and earlier

:35:18.:35:22.

this year, the Home Office. Butt the real scale of cybercrime is

:35:22.:35:27.

much more extensive and shadowy. From credit card fraud to loss of

:35:27.:35:32.

business, the cost of tacking is enormous. �800 million for just one

:35:32.:35:38.

firm, according to the MI5 boss. Evidence of state-sponsored hacking

:35:38.:35:46.

for political purposes is growing. The computer virus, Stucksnet is

:35:46.:35:52.

now the to have been cooked up by the US or Israeli states, to

:35:52.:35:58.

undermine the Iranian systems. Whatever they did is open up panned

:35:58.:36:02.

Dora's box, they allowed the tacking community and others to

:36:02.:36:10.

peer into a world of developing cyber weapons. How to tackle it,

:36:10.:36:16.

the British head of cyber-security said the answer lies in getting

:36:16.:36:21.

cybersophisticates to work for the good eulogise. GCHQs is one of the

:36:21.:36:27.

sponsors of a yearly competition to encourage cyber-talent. In the face

:36:27.:36:32.

of daily takes on Government systems, could that be enough.

:36:32.:36:36.

19-year-old Jonathan won this year's cyber-security competition.

:36:36.:36:42.

James is a veteran of cyber-defence and in Edinburgh we have our guest

:36:42.:36:46.

with lofts contact with our anonymous hackers, in the course of

:36:46.:36:51.

writing book on the subject. Let's analyse what the problem is?

:36:51.:36:55.

have three major areas, firstly, massive number of new computer

:36:55.:37:00.

viruses out there, designed to steal money from the public,

:37:00.:37:08.

listeners of this show. Secondly, a rise in be habgtvavisim, breaking

:37:08.:37:13.

into system, brandishing with tags and raising awareness. Thirdly, the

:37:13.:37:20.

increasing sack racial of state- sponsored malware attacks to steal

:37:20.:37:23.

military secrets or other information. You believe all three

:37:23.:37:27.

are these are real threats? three of these are very real

:37:27.:37:31.

threats. In terms of national security? Absolutely. The grandma

:37:31.:37:37.

jort lie in the first category -- grand majority lie in the first

:37:37.:37:41.

category, all about stealing money. How might a cyber-attack work?

:37:41.:37:46.

There is lots of ways. The most common is you would visit a website

:37:46.:37:50.

on your computer, because you are not patched and up-to-date, in the

:37:50.:37:56.

background the guys in the background are able to load a vie

:37:56.:38:03.

Russian without your permission, they will have a camera looking at

:38:03.:38:07.

what is going on, if you access your bank they will be able to get

:38:08.:38:14.

on and do that. If you have links with the group Anonymous, let's not

:38:14.:38:18.

get into the details of what they are said or said not to have done.

:38:18.:38:22.

What is the motivation for a group like that? There is a wide range of

:38:22.:38:26.

motivations. For one thing it isn't strictly a group, it is more of a

:38:26.:38:30.

process, and a culture of people, and an ever-shifting crowd of

:38:30.:38:35.

people on-line. You have people people, if you were going to divide

:38:35.:38:40.

it into two catches, there are people who want to disrupt on-line

:38:40.:38:46.

data for fun and pranks. And those with a more sociopolitical activist

:38:46.:38:50.

message. One thing I would say is one of the reasons we are seeing a

:38:50.:38:56.

growth in this kind of if he Nomura, is the art of hacking and

:38:56.:39:01.

distrupting on-line data is becoming -- disrupting on lion data

:39:01.:39:06.

is becoming easier. You have web tools freely available on-line,

:39:06.:39:11.

that anyone can download, that automate a cyber attack. The people

:39:11.:39:15.

part of Anonymous, are not superskilled hackers, but people

:39:15.:39:18.

who have grown up in internet culture, they are internet savvy,

:39:18.:39:22.

they understand how to get things done through social networks. This

:39:22.:39:26.

is one reason why traditional institutions like MI5, and other

:39:26.:39:29.

authorities, find it really hard to wrap their heads round how these

:39:29.:39:34.

guys work. As well as what they are doing effectively on-line, they are

:39:34.:39:37.

organising themselves so quickly and so openly. One can understand,

:39:37.:39:42.

I think, from the point of view of a subversive young person, the

:39:42.:39:47.

thrill of trying to get into something, where is the thrill in

:39:47.:39:52.

trying to stop somebody doing that? Well, I would say that to properly

:39:52.:39:57.

be able to defend a system from being subverted, you very much need

:39:57.:40:00.

to understand in what ways it is going to be subverted. Which means

:40:00.:40:04.

that you need to look at the system that is you are trying to defend,

:40:04.:40:08.

and try to think, what line of attack would I take would, that

:40:08.:40:15.

work. It is not hacking, as such, as it is not actually, it is

:40:15.:40:18.

obviously not breaking anybody else's system. It is looking into

:40:18.:40:22.

your own, and very much focusing on patching up the holes. It is

:40:22.:40:26.

equally rewarding, because you are still, essentially, looking at it,

:40:26.:40:30.

finding the challenge and trying to break things. You obviously don't

:40:30.:40:35.

face the risk of going to jail? That is a major bonus. In other

:40:35.:40:39.

words, you are not -- on the other hand you are not as school as the

:40:39.:40:44.

hacker? Arguably, but if you are not in jail, you are a step ahead

:40:44.:40:48.

of them! There is a lot of people in the security industry, that I

:40:48.:40:54.

talk to, who got into security through very ease sow terrik roots,

:40:54.:41:02.

not as direct as Jonathan has had the opportunity. They have these

:41:02.:41:07.

altruistic motivations, want to go stop their friends and family being

:41:07.:41:10.

hacked on-line. It is an interesting vein going through T

:41:10.:41:14.

but applying the skills without going to jail is a big perk.

:41:14.:41:18.

Let's explore the question, the head of MI5 was talking about how

:41:18.:41:25.

you go about acquiring an army of cyberwarriors to defend yourself,

:41:25.:41:31.

where do you find them? That is the huge challenge, organisations

:41:31.:41:34.

aren't finding them through the direct hiring roots. It is finding

:41:34.:41:39.

people with a certain way of thinking, it is not about a certain

:41:39.:41:42.

set of qualifications you can look up on a CV. You have to go to

:41:42.:41:46.

different forums and exchanges. Looking at different technologies

:41:46.:41:51.

we were talking about, and pose challenges that appeal to their

:41:51.:41:55.

intellect. Jonathan didn't know he wanted to be in cyber-security, we

:41:55.:42:01.

had to find a way of getting him interested without him coming to us.

:42:01.:42:07.

What is your thought about where you find this army of cyber-

:42:07.:42:11.

sophisticated, who are capable of withstanding the risk posed either

:42:11.:42:16.

by criminal organisations or indeed foreign Governments? I think they

:42:16.:42:20.

are everywhere. They will be mostly young people. We're looking at a

:42:20.:42:25.

generation now that are growing up with the Internet. People who have

:42:25.:42:32.

known it all their lives. Many, many more young people know how to

:42:33.:42:36.

programme and code. I think it is a matter of going on-line to find

:42:36.:42:44.

them. Going to different forums. One of the reasons why many people

:42:44.:42:47.

find Anonymous attractive, is people who tend to be most

:42:47.:42:51.

passionate about it tend to be drifting a little bit. They find it

:42:51.:42:55.

community and purpose, they latch on to it. That is very attractive

:42:55.:42:58.

for people. If something like that can be offered as well as engagment,

:42:58.:43:03.

it is a matter of attracting these people in that way. What do you

:43:03.:43:12.

make of it? I very much would say that you do need to find the

:43:12.:43:16.

alternative roots through the cyber-security challenge. Really

:43:16.:43:20.

attract them through ways that very much engage them. Much more than,

:43:21.:43:27.

as James was saying, looking for the qualifications so much. It is

:43:27.:43:35.

very much about the apt tued, looking for a way of -- aptitude,

:43:35.:43:40.

looking for a way of thinking. sense of belonging? You don't need

:43:40.:43:49.

to be in illegal group to long. There is the good and bad, and you

:43:49.:43:53.

belong to one of the sides. It is not just, there is not only one way

:43:53.:43:56.

of belonging. Thank you all very much.

:43:56.:44:01.

Before we look at tomorrow's front pages. There are some alarming

:44:01.:44:04.

briefings coming from Rome in the run up to the crucial European

:44:04.:44:10.

Summit. Paul Mason has come back. Jeremy, it has been one of those

:44:10.:44:15.

interesting days in the non- resolution of the eurocrisis. The

:44:15.:44:25.
:44:25.:44:26.

first thing that happened is Mr Von Rumpuy, decided to publish the

:44:26.:44:32.

summit, with the fiscal and the political European eventually, the

:44:32.:44:40.

whole -- political union, eventually the whole of the groups

:44:40.:44:45.

getting together. Mrs Merkel chose to make a speech to one of their

:44:45.:44:51.

political parties, which said there would be no pooling of debt, namely

:44:51.:44:57.

eurobonds, as long as she is alive. It prompted a shout from from the

:44:57.:45:01.

audience, "long may you live", at Mrs Merkel. The Italian Prime

:45:02.:45:06.

Minister, appointed, you remember, last year, in a great technocratic

:45:06.:45:10.

coup against Italy and Greece, it looks like he's on his last legs.

:45:10.:45:15.

He can't come home in the summer without some resolution. He lickly

:45:15.:45:20.

renounced the bogs of the German -- publicly renounced the boss of the

:45:20.:45:23.

Germany bank. Silvio Berlusconi, the former Prime Minister, is

:45:23.:45:27.

getting ready to move against Mr Monti, the technocrat, unless

:45:27.:45:31.

something happens. So we have got a day-and-a-half until the summit,

:45:31.:45:36.

and then something better happen. Thank you very much.

:45:36.:45:40.

Tomorrow morning's front pages. Most going with George Osborne's

:45:40.:45:50.
:45:50.:46:10.

latest U-turn. This time on the That's all from Newsnight tonight,

:46:11.:46:14.

I will leave you with the spectacle of the daily constitutional taken

:46:14.:46:20.

by the 5,000 ducks longing to Mr Hong Minshun, from Taishou, we

:46:21.:46:25.

break all four of our self-imposed rules for film clicks at the end of

:46:25.:46:32.

the broke, no animals, no events that didn't happen today, no

:46:32.:46:42.
:46:42.:47:15.

A really warm and humid night, I really haven't seen many of those

:47:15.:47:19.

this summer. Outbreaks of rain across Northern Ireland, northern

:47:19.:47:22.

England and zone Scotland for a good part of the day. Further south

:47:22.:47:26.

grey and mist year, brightening up, any sunshine across the midlands

:47:26.:47:31.

and eastern England could striinger heavy and thundery showers. --

:47:31.:47:35.

trigger heavy and thundery showers. Temperatures could get into the low

:47:35.:47:40.

20s. Around the coast of south-west England it could stay dull and

:47:41.:47:46.

misty, temperatures will struggle. Inland across Wales t should

:47:46.:47:50.

brighten up and feel humid. Temperatures stuck at 13 or 14 on

:47:50.:47:54.

the west coast if it turns dull and misty. A wet start in Northern

:47:54.:47:59.

Ireland, dryer and brighter here in the afternoon. Cloudy with

:47:59.:48:05.

outbreaks of rain across the day. The Highlands turning dryer. More

:48:05.:48:07.

rain across southern Scotland and Northern Ireland on Thursday. That

:48:07.:48:11.

is cause for concern. The rain building up over the next couple of

:48:11.:48:15.

days. Further south, well it will be warm and humid, particularly

:48:15.:48:19.

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