Browse content similar to 25/07/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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The weather's lovely, summer is here, the world is coming to enjoy | :00:13. | :00:17. | |
London 2012, there is just one catch, the British economy is | :00:17. | :00:21. | |
shrinking at an alarming rate, down 0.7% last quarter. | :00:21. | :00:24. | |
According to the Government's original plan, the economy should | :00:24. | :00:29. | |
now have grown by 5%. Instead, it is smaller than when they took over. | :00:29. | :00:33. | |
Closing the deficit of the purpose of the coalition, and the | :00:33. | :00:37. | |
Chancellor. So can either survive if they fail? | :00:37. | :00:43. | |
The Business Secretary, Vince Cable, tell us us it is disappointing, and | :00:43. | :00:46. | |
-- tells us it is disappointing, and discusses his job prospects. | :00:46. | :00:50. | |
REPORTER: Do you think you would make a good Chancellor? I would, | :00:50. | :00:54. | |
but George Osborne is doing it well, and we are doing it as part of a | :00:54. | :00:57. | |
team, we are not suggesting changing the arrangements. We will | :00:57. | :00:59. | |
hear from economists and leading business people. | :00:59. | :01:04. | |
Nine athletes are banned from the 2012 Olympics for doping. Newsnight | :01:04. | :01:09. | |
uncovers new methods cheats are using to avoid detection. To be | :01:09. | :01:13. | |
able to prove that would be great, but at the moment the standard of | :01:13. | :01:17. | |
the drug testing isn't quite at the level where everybody can believe | :01:17. | :01:27. | |
:01:27. | :01:27. | ||
in the system. Good evening, idea that this summer | :01:27. | :01:32. | |
we might finally see the end to the recession was dashed today, by | :01:32. | :01:35. | |
figures which show the British economy shrank by 0.7% from April | :01:35. | :01:38. | |
to June. The figures could be corrected up or down, the message | :01:39. | :01:43. | |
is clear, Something isn't working. The TUC said the Government had | :01:43. | :01:47. | |
wiped out the recovery. Others directly blame George Osborne, one | :01:47. | :01:50. | |
Lib Dem peer suggested he was like a Chancellor on work experience, | :01:50. | :01:54. | |
and should be moved in favour of the Business Secretary, Vince Cable. | :01:54. | :01:58. | |
We will hear from Mr Cable about his job prospects in a moment. | :01:58. | :02:06. | |
First here is Paul Mason. To lose two quarters growth might | :02:06. | :02:11. | |
be regarded as misfortune, to lose a third, big time, might be seen as | :02:11. | :02:15. | |
carelessness. Today, George Osborne had to face | :02:15. | :02:22. | |
the fact, never mind the rain, the Jubilee, a 0.7% shrinkage in just | :02:22. | :02:27. | |
three months, is bad. Of course, there are one-off factors like the | :02:27. | :02:31. | |
bank hole day, that is not an excuse I'm using. Frankly, even | :02:31. | :02:34. | |
without that, these would be disappointing numbers. They remind | :02:34. | :02:37. | |
us that Britain has some deep- rooted economic problems, that will | :02:38. | :02:43. | |
take time to solve. This is what a double-dip looks like. Deep falls | :02:43. | :02:47. | |
in growth, after Lehman Brothers, nearly four years ago, then | :02:47. | :02:50. | |
recoverry, and since the coalition took power, shrinkage in more | :02:51. | :02:55. | |
quarters than not. It put Labour, which warned of | :02:55. | :03:01. | |
exactly this, on the front foot. Today is the day we see that this | :03:01. | :03:04. | |
Government's economic plan has failed. They promised change, they | :03:04. | :03:08. | |
promised people that the pain they were inflicting would put our | :03:08. | :03:13. | |
economy back on track. But month- on-month, year-on-year, we see | :03:13. | :03:16. | |
things getting worse, not better. It is families and businesses that | :03:16. | :03:21. | |
are paying the price. And an influential Lib Dem peer, | :03:21. | :03:25. | |
and friend of Vince Cable, said George Osborne should be sacked. | :03:25. | :03:30. | |
the beginning of this Government we had three out of the five Liberal | :03:30. | :03:36. | |
Democrat cabinet ministers, with great business experience and | :03:36. | :03:40. | |
economic expertise, Vince Cable, Chris Huhne and David Laws, Vince | :03:40. | :03:46. | |
Cable is available, but if the others are available soon we would | :03:46. | :03:49. | |
like to see them back at the heart of economic policy. Are you | :03:49. | :03:54. | |
suggesting one of them should be the Chancellor? Yes. Today's news | :03:54. | :03:59. | |
is particularly bad because exactly the sectors said would lead Britain | :03:59. | :04:04. | |
back into recovery, are themselves into bad and deep recession. | :04:04. | :04:07. | |
Construction down 10% in the last nine months, and production, | :04:07. | :04:10. | |
leading all the manufacturing industries, down more than 2%. It | :04:10. | :04:15. | |
is all so far away from what the Treasury's own independent experts | :04:15. | :04:20. | |
predicted two years ago. George Osborne's basic problem is | :04:20. | :04:25. | |
none of the projections he based his strategy on has come true. The | :04:25. | :04:29. | |
economy was supposed to rebalance, it hasn't, manufacturing was | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
supposed to recover rapidly, it hasn't. And as for the growth | :04:33. | :04:41. | |
figures, well, 2010 was supposed to be 1.8, wrong, 2.4% in 2011, wrong, | :04:41. | :04:45. | |
2.9% this year, badly wrong, because we are in recession, as for | :04:45. | :04:53. | |
2.8% next year, again, not likely. So why so bad for so long. Interest | :04:53. | :04:57. | |
rates are near zero and the Bank of England has pumped more than �300 | :04:57. | :05:00. | |
billion to the economy, through printing it. Those on the right of | :05:00. | :05:03. | |
economics say the Chancellor is just not implementing the policies | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
needed for the private sector to offset the cuts in public spending. | :05:07. | :05:13. | |
A lot of it is policy induced. The refusal to rapidly cut the size of | :05:13. | :05:17. | |
the public sector, but also the refusal to pursue key | :05:17. | :05:20. | |
liberalisations of the labour market, energy markets, where it is | :05:20. | :05:23. | |
piling more costs on businesses. Also, I think it has been too weak | :05:23. | :05:27. | |
in the field of liberalising planning as well. Meanwhile, from | :05:27. | :05:30. | |
the other side of the coalition, there is frustration, at the | :05:30. | :05:34. | |
absence of a state-backed growth plan. Vince Cable's leaked letter, | :05:34. | :05:39. | |
in February this year, warned George Osborne the Government was | :05:39. | :05:44. | |
"missing a compelling vision...a clear and confident message about | :05:44. | :05:48. | |
how we will earn our living in the future ". Last work the IMF gave | :05:48. | :05:55. | |
the Government a nudge towards more infrastructure spending, not so far | :05:55. | :05:59. | |
reciprocated The IMF says he should use the fiscal space they regard | :06:00. | :06:02. | |
the Treasury to have at the moment, because of the low interest rates, | :06:02. | :06:07. | |
to get money spent quickly on key infrastructure projects. That could | :06:07. | :06:10. | |
be the high-speed rail being discussed, or new toll roads, it | :06:10. | :06:15. | |
could be the energy infrastructure we need to decarbonise the economy. | :06:15. | :06:18. | |
It could be housing, a housing shortage in the UK at the moment. | :06:18. | :06:22. | |
All those things desperately need doing at the moment, there isn't | :06:22. | :06:25. | |
enough private sector investment, and the Government is able to | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
borrow at rates we haven't had for generations. What the Government | :06:28. | :06:33. | |
has effectively done for the last two years to swap a recovery for | :06:33. | :06:38. | |
fiscal stability, that is no mean achievement when the rest of Europe | :06:38. | :06:43. | |
is howevering on the brink of chaos. But it is whether the markets | :06:43. | :06:46. | |
continue to believe his deficit reduction plan. | :06:46. | :06:50. | |
This is the plan, currently, tax rises in blue, spending cuts in red. | :06:51. | :06:56. | |
And the biggest years of cuts ahead of us, including two extra years | :06:56. | :07:00. | |
after the 2015 election, added once the Government accepted its | :07:00. | :07:04. | |
original projections were wrong. Two things happen if we are right | :07:04. | :07:08. | |
about the figures today, first we will be borrowing more this year | :07:08. | :07:12. | |
than intended. We may end up borrowing more than last year. | :07:12. | :07:17. | |
Secondly, we won't go through to 2015 and 2016 in terms of cuts, we | :07:17. | :07:20. | |
may go to 2017 and beyond, if the Office of Budget Responsibility | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
says to the Chancellor this is a permanent reduction in economic | :07:23. | :07:27. | |
output. For the Treasury, the bottom line | :07:27. | :07:31. | |
is this, the UK economy is shrinking, and shrinking economies | :07:31. | :07:37. | |
have trouble paying their debts. Paul is here now, along with our | :07:37. | :07:42. | |
political editor, Allegra Stratton. Where does this leave the deficit | :07:42. | :07:45. | |
reduction strategy, Paul? A big question mark over it. You now have | :07:46. | :07:49. | |
people in the bond markets tonight saying, this is a country already | :07:49. | :07:55. | |
on negative watch for its triple-A rating, and if it goes much further. | :07:55. | :07:58. | |
Look, there is one story in the world, that is debt, and people | :07:58. | :08:02. | |
paying down their debt, sometimes so fast that the economy shrinks | :08:02. | :08:05. | |
and then you can't pay back your debts. It is a vicious circle. | :08:05. | :08:08. | |
Britain stayed out of that for two years, but if we have another | :08:08. | :08:12. | |
quarter of 0.7, or if this carries on for any great length of time, we | :08:12. | :08:18. | |
will be part of that story. Even if you don't want to be at the edge of | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
a vortex, you don't want to be sucked into it. Where does this | :08:22. | :08:25. | |
leave George Osborne, then? I don't think he thinks he's on work | :08:25. | :08:32. | |
experience, if he does, he thinks he's a graduate of work experience. | :08:32. | :08:36. | |
Bad experience! Who would the Prime Minister turn if he was looking to | :08:36. | :08:40. | |
reshuffle George Osborne? It would be George Osborne, he's the Prime | :08:40. | :08:42. | |
Minister's chief economic and political adviser, the idea he | :08:43. | :08:46. | |
would be shuffled is one of the follies of current politics, it is | :08:46. | :08:49. | |
mad. If the deficit reduction strategy goes, or rather if he goes, | :08:49. | :08:54. | |
the deficit reduction strategy goes, not only the Tories' main plan, but | :08:54. | :09:00. | |
also the called, in their -- Tory's main plan, but also in their words, | :09:00. | :09:03. | |
the glue of the coalition goes. Today, there are terrible figure, | :09:04. | :09:08. | |
and everybody is genuinely shocked by the figure, something the | :09:08. | :09:12. | |
viewers won't be comforted by, the idea they were blind sided by them, | :09:12. | :09:15. | |
nevertheless, we have already had the deficit reduction programme | :09:15. | :09:21. | |
extended by two years. They did so, for me, it was quite Houdiniesque, | :09:21. | :09:25. | |
first it was at the end of the parliament, then extending by the | :09:25. | :09:28. | |
two years, they got away with it. They have got away with the pushing | :09:28. | :09:33. | |
back, now we are seeing more bad news, but equally, compared to that, | :09:33. | :09:39. | |
I don't think it is massively worse news. The idea that he goes | :09:39. | :09:43. | |
anywhere is fanciful. Is bad news for the economy, at | :09:43. | :09:46. | |
least in political, narrow political terms, good news for | :09:46. | :09:51. | |
Labour, because they can say "I told you so". Ed Balls has based | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
his entire political career on being right, that Osborne would not | :09:54. | :09:58. | |
only crash the economy, but in crashing it he would crash the | :09:58. | :10:01. | |
deficit reduction target. The problem s you saw my graph in the | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
report, Labour doesn't even have a deficit reduction tart t gave up on | :10:05. | :10:09. | |
trying to have one when it -- target, it gave up on trying to | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
have one when it all went wrong in last November, you couldn't compare | :10:13. | :10:17. | |
like with like for the last Government, the figures were so | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
different. The problem now is, if the Office for Budget | :10:20. | :10:24. | |
Responsibility says the 0.7% is real, we are cutting that from the | :10:24. | :10:28. | |
UK economy, what that means is an in coming Labour Government f it | :10:28. | :10:34. | |
wanted to even match, pound-for- pound, the general proposal of the | :10:34. | :10:38. | |
outgoing Lib Dem and Conservative one, would be facing scales of cuts | :10:38. | :10:44. | |
and tax increases, that they can't yet contemplate. But they are | :10:44. | :10:47. | |
contemplating, this is what is so fascinating for us in our jobs, | :10:47. | :10:50. | |
firstly, you have this �10.5 billion of welfare cuts that we | :10:50. | :10:54. | |
have done on the programme before. There are many people, including, I | :10:54. | :11:00. | |
don't know, but Rachel Reeves, who will you speak to in a empt mo, | :11:00. | :11:05. | |
that they probably have to accept those at the next election, because | :11:05. | :11:08. | |
welfare, our viewers won't like this, it does resonate so much with | :11:09. | :11:13. | |
people that it has to be cut. Lots of people in Labourite now are | :11:13. | :11:19. | |
thinking, how do we answer this in a particularly Labour, socially | :11:19. | :11:23. | |
democratic way, that is one of the ideas bubbling around at the moment. | :11:23. | :11:27. | |
In Government one of the problems for them, I wonder if today is not | :11:27. | :11:33. | |
proob embl, that it is so bad, it is pull ow -- problem, that it is | :11:33. | :11:38. | |
so bad, it is pull out every drawer and bring out what you can. Do you | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
do massive investment but do it in a way that is lots of public money | :11:42. | :11:45. | |
that doesn't affect the deficit or levels of debt. Not everyone in the | :11:46. | :11:50. | |
Treasury likes that? They hate it, that is why it is not forth coming | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
so far. We will save it for another day. I caught up with Vince Cable | :11:54. | :11:57. | |
in his departmental offices in central London today. | :11:57. | :12:01. | |
When you were made aware of these figures yesterday, what did you | :12:01. | :12:07. | |
think? I was disappointed. We know that the economy has got a lot of | :12:07. | :12:11. | |
difficulties. They are frequently rehearsed. We have the problems of | :12:11. | :12:15. | |
banks that don't work effectively, we have a shortage of demand, | :12:15. | :12:20. | |
because of consumer debt, we are trying to deal with our deficit | :12:21. | :12:24. | |
which affects consumer spending. Above all, we have this very | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
difficult situation in the eurozone, which is affecting our exports. It | :12:27. | :12:30. | |
is not surprising that we are struggling with economic difficulty. | :12:30. | :12:34. | |
Not surprising? I think the scale of the downturn was disappointing, | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
we acknowledge. That You say it is not surprising, but this is the | :12:37. | :12:41. | |
very core of Government policy, this is what you are about, trying | :12:41. | :12:46. | |
to bear down on the deficit, while increasing growth. You are failing | :12:46. | :12:49. | |
at both. That is not surprising? They are not happening as rapidly | :12:49. | :12:53. | |
as we would want. But, just to put the other side of the case, there | :12:54. | :12:59. | |
are some positive things happening. There is a lot of private sector | :12:59. | :13:03. | |
job growth, 800,000 over the last two years. There are some very good | :13:03. | :13:07. | |
industrial success stories. I was unable to refer to them this | :13:07. | :13:13. | |
morning, the Jaguar Land Rover, the 1,100 new jobs, on top of the 8,000 | :13:13. | :13:18. | |
they have already done. A lot happening with hit tachy and trains. | :13:18. | :13:22. | |
The overall growth picture is not good. The figures show the reason | :13:22. | :13:25. | |
why. Predominantly because of weakness in construction. If you | :13:25. | :13:29. | |
take credit for some of the good news, presumably, you have to take | :13:29. | :13:35. | |
the blame for the bad news, it is pretty appalling? These are not | :13:35. | :13:38. | |
good figures. There is no point denying they are not good figures. | :13:38. | :13:43. | |
It is easier to understand, I think, the deep factors, which we are | :13:44. | :13:48. | |
struggling with. The IFS says that the figures are so bad you might | :13:48. | :13:54. | |
need even more cuts in 2017, can you actually foresee going into the | :13:54. | :13:57. | |
next general election saying, we may need more cuts in 2017, to get | :13:57. | :14:03. | |
on the course we set for ourselves? We are taking the programme of cuts, | :14:03. | :14:08. | |
which we have to undertake in order to get massive deficit down. And | :14:08. | :14:12. | |
that is in a measured way. We have been flexible about this. The | :14:12. | :14:15. | |
Government's objective when we came into office was to try to deal with | :14:15. | :14:19. | |
the structural deficit in four years. We have accepted and | :14:19. | :14:24. | |
practised that it is six years in the November statement. We are | :14:24. | :14:27. | |
flexible in the speed with which this is being applied. There could | :14:27. | :14:33. | |
be more cuts in 2017, it could be inevitable? It could well be. The | :14:33. | :14:36. | |
Prime Minister is talking about the whole process taking a decade. That | :14:36. | :14:39. | |
is a reflection of the massive scale of the problem we are dealing | :14:39. | :14:44. | |
with. The economy is smaller now than when you became Business | :14:44. | :14:48. | |
Secretary, you didn't presumably go into politics to preside over a | :14:48. | :14:51. | |
shrinking economy, or a lost decade for the British economy? I didn't | :14:51. | :14:55. | |
go into Government to preside over a shrifpbging economy. I did go | :14:55. | :14:58. | |
into Government to -- shrinking economy. I did go into Government | :14:58. | :15:03. | |
to deal with massive economic problem. This is something we | :15:03. | :15:09. | |
haven't dealt with in my lifetime, theing collapse, and the | :15:09. | :15:12. | |
existential crisis in the eurozone affecting our economy, and dealing | :15:12. | :15:16. | |
with a massive deficit problem. These are not easy things. I take | :15:16. | :15:21. | |
it as part of a challenge to be part of the team dealing with it. | :15:21. | :15:23. | |
don't think anyone would underestimate the challenge facing | :15:23. | :15:26. | |
any Government with these problems. As you know, Conservatives say, we | :15:26. | :15:30. | |
need more deregulation, we need more cuts, and people on the left, | :15:30. | :15:33. | |
including some within your own party, would like to see more | :15:33. | :15:38. | |
investment, more public spending, and inevitably more borrowing, you | :15:38. | :15:42. | |
are wobbling between the two? not wobbling, I don't think the | :15:42. | :15:48. | |
issue is predominantly a problem caused by lack of deregulation or | :15:48. | :15:53. | |
lack of cuts. I don't buy that, sometimes in jargon called, the | :15:54. | :15:57. | |
supply side agenda. We have to regulate, I don't think that is the | :15:57. | :15:59. | |
problem, we have very flexible labour markets in this country. | :16:00. | :16:03. | |
That is one of the main attractions for the big inward investments we | :16:03. | :16:07. | |
have succeeded in attracting here. The basic problem is one of demand. | :16:07. | :16:10. | |
This is, of course, made more difficult by the fact that the | :16:10. | :16:15. | |
Government, and any Government trying to deal with a deficit, adds | :16:15. | :16:20. | |
to that problem. We tried to offset it by very, very active, vigorous | :16:20. | :16:22. | |
policy by the Bank of England. The Bank of England has been very | :16:22. | :16:24. | |
supportive. It was during the crisis under the last Government, | :16:24. | :16:29. | |
it continues to be here. That is an essential part of the mix. Could | :16:29. | :16:34. | |
you, given that analysis, couldn't you do what the IMF is ugt ising | :16:34. | :16:40. | |
you have room to do. You -- is suggesting you do, you have room to | :16:40. | :16:48. | |
spend more on infrastructure growth, to help the economy and boost | :16:48. | :16:51. | |
through the construction sector, which you identified as a problem? | :16:51. | :16:55. | |
The Government is doing both of those things. The infrastructure | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
initiative launched last week is an attempt to give the Government | :16:58. | :17:01. | |
balance sheet, which is strengthened by the reflecting low | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
interest rates in Government borrowing, using the Government's | :17:05. | :17:10. | |
balance sheet to support big infrastructure projects financed by | :17:10. | :17:15. | |
pension funds. Would you like to do more than that? Directly using low | :17:15. | :17:20. | |
interest rates to keep interest rates lower for bank borrowers, | :17:20. | :17:23. | |
under the National Loan Guarantee Scheme. Those ideas are already | :17:23. | :17:26. | |
implemented. You could do more, that is the point? It may be we | :17:26. | :17:31. | |
have to do more. Your analysis in February, and the letter published, | :17:31. | :17:34. | |
suggested you said that you sensed that there is still something | :17:34. | :17:37. | |
important missing, a compelling vision of where the country is | :17:37. | :17:43. | |
heading. Many people agreed with your analysis. I take it you still | :17:43. | :17:46. | |
agree with your analysis? What we are putting in place, I was | :17:46. | :17:49. | |
referring to one particular aspect of policy, which is what we call | :17:49. | :17:53. | |
industrial strategy. I think what has happened in the last few months | :17:53. | :17:57. | |
is we have got the building blocks in place, and are accepted. What | :17:57. | :18:01. | |
that means is getting the Government behind, things like, | :18:01. | :18:05. | |
apprenticeships, innovation, supporting supply chains, above all, | :18:05. | :18:08. | |
supporting a resurgence of manufacturing, which we are really | :18:08. | :18:13. | |
beginning to see. Working in a co- operative, long-term way, with, say, | :18:14. | :18:18. | |
the automobile industry, Aerospace, life sciences, and services, like | :18:18. | :18:23. | |
creative industries. That structure is being put in place, and is | :18:23. | :18:25. | |
producing results. I wrote the letter because I have | :18:25. | :18:28. | |
responsibility for driving that agenda. Is George Osborne the man | :18:28. | :18:36. | |
who has killed off the recovery? it is not a personal thing. He's a | :18:36. | :18:40. | |
colleague: He is in charge? We are collective responsible, we have a | :18:40. | :18:44. | |
common agenda. We work well as a team. There is no personal blame | :18:44. | :18:49. | |
attached to it. He called today's figures disappointing, some people, | :18:49. | :18:52. | |
including your friend, Lord Oakeshott, said he's disappointing, | :18:52. | :18:57. | |
he says that the Chancellor is on work experience and could be | :18:57. | :19:00. | |
replaced with someone with more experience, meaning you? Lord | :19:00. | :19:03. | |
Oakeshott is a good friend, I don't agree with him on everything, this | :19:03. | :19:07. | |
is one area I don't agree. don't agree you will make a good | :19:07. | :19:11. | |
Chancellor? I probably would, George Osborne is doing the job and | :19:11. | :19:16. | |
we are doing it together as part of a team. Nobody is suggesting the | :19:16. | :19:21. | |
change. Lord Oakeshott is still your friend? Long standing for | :19:21. | :19:24. | |
decades. Even though his judgment on this piece? We have friendly | :19:24. | :19:29. | |
disagreements, we do on this issue. The Shadow Chief Secretary to the | :19:29. | :19:33. | |
Treasury is here, do you think he would make a good Chancellor? | :19:33. | :19:40. | |
couldn't do much worse than the current guy in it. Maybe a future | :19:40. | :19:43. | |
Lib Dem-Labour coalition we will see. A serious point, you have made | :19:43. | :19:48. | |
a lot of running as a party about the damage caused by the cut. Paul | :19:48. | :19:51. | |
Mason's analysis is accepted by everybody, the worst of the cuts | :19:51. | :19:55. | |
have not yet happened. So, it follows, that they can't be | :19:55. | :20:01. | |
responsible for all of this, can they? The Government's decisions, | :20:01. | :20:04. | |
especially around the Comprehensive Spending Review in the autumn of | :20:04. | :20:08. | |
2010, caused this collapse in confidence, since then, the economy | :20:08. | :20:15. | |
has contracted. The numbers over the last three successive quarters | :20:15. | :20:17. | |
of a shrinking economy, the Government has to take large | :20:17. | :20:21. | |
proportion of the blame. The big cuts haven't come in yet, you agree | :20:21. | :20:25. | |
with that? The confidence was choked off at the time of the | :20:25. | :20:30. | |
Autumn Statement in autumn 2010, since then, we have seen | :20:30. | :20:33. | |
construction fall, we have seen manufacturing output fall, in the | :20:33. | :20:38. | |
numbers today, service output fall as well. Of course, there are | :20:38. | :20:43. | |
international factors at play as well. Indeed, the eurozone debt | :20:43. | :20:49. | |
crisis, the IMF says, is part of it? Apart from Italy, one of the | :20:49. | :20:51. | |
industrialised economies, the only one who have gone back into | :20:51. | :20:54. | |
recession. The Government has to take a large proportion of the | :20:54. | :20:57. | |
blame from the numbers we have seen today. The only good thing out of | :20:57. | :21:01. | |
the nuplgs today is it is a wake-up call for the Government to change | :21:01. | :21:04. | |
their plans. As you heard Vince Cable say, they are prepared to be | :21:04. | :21:09. | |
flexible and do more. Ed Balls and yourself have made a lot of play | :21:09. | :21:13. | |
with the IMF saying Britain has more to do, more room to spend and | :21:13. | :21:17. | |
borrow a bit more. You have to accept more of the IMF's analysis | :21:17. | :21:20. | |
then, a credible deficit reduction plan is the key to everything. They | :21:20. | :21:25. | |
think the Chancellor has one? credible deficit reduction plan is | :21:25. | :21:32. | |
key. You don't have one? This deficit reduction plan is two years | :21:32. | :21:40. | |
off course. As Paul Johnson from the fiscal studies area says there | :21:40. | :21:46. | |
is more to go. This plan no longer seems credible. The ratings | :21:46. | :21:49. | |
agencies say that without growth the deficit reduction plan is not | :21:49. | :21:54. | |
achievable. The Government have got themselves into a vicious circle, | :21:54. | :21:58. | |
they see the deficit and make cuts, but as a result they choke off | :21:58. | :22:03. | |
growth, the deficit increases, and the deficit higher than a year ago. | :22:03. | :22:09. | |
They cut a bit more and make things worse, they are in a vicious circle. | :22:09. | :22:14. | |
Even though you accept there are other things responsible? Yeark but | :22:14. | :22:19. | |
ripped out of the foundations of the -- yeah, but ripped out of the | :22:19. | :22:22. | |
foundations of the house, and now we are in a more difficult position, | :22:22. | :22:31. | |
we are not able to withstand the shocks coming our way. The IMF | :22:31. | :22:38. | |
suggesting that there could be more cuts on to 2017, so it will be an | :22:38. | :22:43. | |
absolute hair-shirt election, and a decade of a lost British economy, | :22:43. | :22:45. | |
isn't it? There is nothing inevitable about this. The reason | :22:45. | :22:49. | |
that we have got the two extra years of deficit reduction, and | :22:50. | :22:51. | |
potentially another five years of it after this parliament, is | :22:52. | :22:57. | |
because of the decisions that this Government have made, it is not too | :22:57. | :23:00. | |
late for them to change course. There is a huge hole there, we have | :23:00. | :23:05. | |
to close the deficit? It is not inevitable it has to carry on to | :23:05. | :23:08. | |
2020. If the Government put in a strategy of jobs and growth to get | :23:08. | :23:12. | |
the economy moving again, to help businesses succeed and get people | :23:12. | :23:18. | |
back to work, we get to pay less in benefits and more tax rerevenue. | :23:18. | :23:22. | |
The economy will grow gain and the deficit coming down sustainably. -- | :23:22. | :23:26. | |
grow again and the deficit coming down substantially. | :23:26. | :23:30. | |
Are you saying you could bring the deficit down quicker than the | :23:30. | :23:33. | |
Government? The deficit in the US is coming down at a faster rate | :23:33. | :23:37. | |
than in the UK. In part because their economy is growing, and | :23:37. | :23:41. | |
unemployment has been falling. You have to have tough decisions on | :23:41. | :23:44. | |
taxation and spending to get the deficit down, but also jobs and | :23:44. | :23:48. | |
growth as well. Without that the plan does not add up. That is why | :23:48. | :23:52. | |
we are seeing both the deficit increasing, but also the economy | :23:52. | :23:55. | |
back in this deeper double-dip recession. | :23:55. | :24:01. | |
Thank you very much. What can be done to get the economy | :24:01. | :24:05. | |
moving, what is the real problem here. I'm joined by Sir Martin | :24:05. | :24:09. | |
Sorrell, of the advertising firm WPP. Mark Longhurst of the British | :24:09. | :24:12. | |
chambers of commerce, Kate Barker a member of the Bank of England | :24:12. | :24:15. | |
Monetary Policy Committee for ten years, and Vicky Pryce, formerly | :24:16. | :24:19. | |
the head of the Government's economic service. | :24:19. | :24:23. | |
Kate Barker, unemployment is actually going down, and so is the | :24:24. | :24:29. | |
GDP going down, any first year economics student would say a | :24:29. | :24:33. | |
mistake here surely. Can we believe the figures? We found the | :24:33. | :24:40. | |
combination of pricing unemployment and rising GDP is wrong. I know | :24:40. | :24:43. | |
they work very carefully, this is a difficult quarter to get right. | :24:43. | :24:46. | |
They don't know the figures for June. June contained both the | :24:46. | :24:51. | |
Jubilee and wet weather. It is likely that these figures will be | :24:51. | :24:57. | |
revised up. That doesn't explain away the last year, it has been a | :24:57. | :25:01. | |
year which GDP has fallen and unemployment has risen. It is not | :25:01. | :25:04. | |
the last quarter. We are either doing incredibly badly on | :25:04. | :25:08. | |
productivity, or the numbers are wrong. The employment figures are | :25:08. | :25:15. | |
more reliable. Three quarters, a third quarter of constrax, it is | :25:15. | :25:21. | |
bad news whatever way you look at it? We shouldn't panic, there are | :25:21. | :25:25. | |
statistic issues one has to establish, and reworking of numbers | :25:25. | :25:30. | |
over time. The biggest difference we have seen is in Q2, second | :25:31. | :25:34. | |
calendar quarter was certainly weaker than the first calendar | :25:34. | :25:37. | |
quarter for our clients. We saw that from across the world. The | :25:38. | :25:42. | |
real issue is what is happening, the big difference has been the | :25:42. | :25:45. | |
eurozone and the deterioration of the eurozone. Companies actually | :25:45. | :25:51. | |
have very strong balance sheets, their balance sheet today compared | :25:51. | :25:58. | |
to 2008, pre-Lehmans and post- Lehmans, is much bigger. But they | :25:58. | :26:02. | |
are not spending? They have the confidence but the uncertainty of | :26:02. | :26:06. | |
the eurozone. You commented on the US, my feeling would be just before | :26:06. | :26:10. | |
the election in the United States in November, or after it. We will | :26:10. | :26:15. | |
be finger pointing at the US not having dealt with its deficit. Not | :26:15. | :26:20. | |
having dealt with a Simpson's bowl- type solution for it. The primary | :26:20. | :26:25. | |
problem we see is the uncertainty in western Europe. | :26:25. | :26:29. | |
When you talk to businesses up and down the country, they may say, | :26:29. | :26:33. | |
that but they talk about the banks? Certainly the figures we referred | :26:33. | :26:41. | |
to, we think, are superintendant, the last quarter. It is not | :26:41. | :26:45. | |
unprecedented for the figures to be revised. You think they could be | :26:45. | :26:48. | |
potentially that badly off. Are you hearing people are doing perhaps | :26:48. | :26:52. | |
not brilliantly, but not too badly? We do the biggest business surveys | :26:52. | :26:56. | |
in the UK. We have a pretty good idea what is going on out there. | :26:56. | :27:02. | |
Businesses are saying it is tougher than it used to be, but we are | :27:02. | :27:05. | |
doing OK. We are concerned about the confidence in the environment | :27:05. | :27:08. | |
in which they are operating. Europe in particular. Those businesses | :27:08. | :27:11. | |
with cash are not investing that cash right now. Because they are | :27:11. | :27:17. | |
concerned about access to capital in the future. About 42% of | :27:17. | :27:22. | |
businesses are in the high-growth, or relatively new category. They | :27:22. | :27:25. | |
can't get access to finance. What is behind the figures? | :27:25. | :27:29. | |
construction element is a very important one, we mustn't | :27:29. | :27:33. | |
underestimate t I would be very surprised if it gets revised up. | :27:33. | :27:37. | |
construction there is a problem? The Government has been cutting | :27:37. | :27:40. | |
back capital spending very significantly. What tends to happen | :27:40. | :27:46. | |
if you do that, is the firms you normally go to procure all the | :27:46. | :27:50. | |
construction and everything else done, just on the jobs they would | :27:50. | :27:53. | |
otherwise have, with the Olympics it helped a bit on the construction | :27:53. | :27:56. | |
strike. But because of the cuts of public sector capital spending, | :27:56. | :28:00. | |
they have not been replaced by any business investment. So we haven't | :28:00. | :28:05. | |
actually seen factories being built, except in some very, very small | :28:05. | :28:08. | |
examples of that happening. We have actually seen the construction | :28:08. | :28:12. | |
figures decline very significantly. They are the swing factor here. It | :28:12. | :28:16. | |
is not going to change, unless there is some dramatic move by the | :28:16. | :28:19. | |
Government to spend a lot more on infrastructure, and housing, which | :28:20. | :28:23. | |
I think it can actually do. Construction is a key to a lot of | :28:23. | :28:28. | |
this? A lot of people watching would say we have had one of the | :28:28. | :28:33. | |
biggest infrom structure of a lifetime, building the lipblic park, | :28:33. | :28:39. | |
costing billions. Surely -- build building the Olympic Park costing | :28:39. | :28:43. | |
billions. It is pretty much done. But I absolutely agree with Vicky, | :28:43. | :28:48. | |
that we ought to be thinking of spending more on housing and | :28:48. | :28:52. | |
infrastructure. Some of the big infrastructure projects take time | :28:52. | :28:55. | |
to come through. We have seen good policies from the Government and | :28:55. | :28:59. | |
the bank recently, to improve the supply of lending. That is one | :28:59. | :29:05. | |
thing, but the demand for lending is another. We probably need the | :29:05. | :29:09. | |
Government to do more on demand. If they do it t and spend it in ways | :29:09. | :29:14. | |
that help us to build in the long- term, help us get young people back | :29:14. | :29:17. | |
to work or build social housing, I don't think the markets would have | :29:17. | :29:24. | |
a problem. It sounds like a Plan B? When you have as many shocks as | :29:24. | :29:30. | |
knocked you of course, you think again. The biggest factors are | :29:30. | :29:33. | |
outside the control of the Government. You are not necessarily | :29:33. | :29:38. | |
worried about Spain going down, you are worried about the dominos that | :29:38. | :29:43. | |
will claps if Spain was going down, and the contagion spreading across | :29:43. | :29:47. | |
Europe. It is the biggest trading partner, a conference tomorrow to | :29:47. | :29:51. | |
stimulate British business to export and trade more. Trying to | :29:51. | :29:54. | |
run a business, when I look at western continental Europe, not so | :29:54. | :29:59. | |
much the UK, actually, our business in the UK lasts two or three years, | :29:59. | :30:02. | |
that should be strong, we have added jobs, at the same time our | :30:02. | :30:06. | |
revenues have grown. Our revenues have grown faster than GMP. They | :30:06. | :30:12. | |
would do better. The key issue is dealing with the eurozone crisi. | :30:12. | :30:18. | |
You agree broadly with that? eurozone matters very much, we will | :30:18. | :30:25. | |
see more crisis in the foreseeable future, it will not end. The IMF | :30:25. | :30:30. | |
has revised figures downwards. They have a problem, Spain can't borrow, | :30:30. | :30:34. | |
with great difficulty, neither can Italy or many other countries, | :30:34. | :30:40. | |
yields are going up everywhere. We can, we have our own monitoring and | :30:40. | :30:46. | |
economic policy. The fact we have extended the period of fiscal | :30:46. | :30:55. | |
consolidation and by a few years, and it has not rattled the markets. | :30:55. | :31:00. | |
We can do only certain things in our control? The US has already | :31:00. | :31:03. | |
been downgraded and it hardly made a difference. | :31:03. | :31:08. | |
We see in our surveys business are doing for more exports. We have | :31:08. | :31:12. | |
seen a growth of exports of manufacturers and service in the | :31:12. | :31:17. | |
last quarters. The last time it happened it was choked off by a | :31:17. | :31:23. | |
lack of investment and finance. It is an important thing forea lot of | :31:23. | :31:25. | |
growth businesses, able to get access to finance. Our members | :31:25. | :31:28. | |
think the Government should do something bold and imaginative now | :31:28. | :31:34. | |
to stimulate confidence. The thing they should do is massive instra | :31:34. | :31:38. | |
structure projects in the medium -- infrastructure projects in the | :31:38. | :31:43. | |
medium and long term. They have to seek private financing for it. | :31:43. | :31:47. | |
Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds. You have to rerisk the | :31:47. | :31:54. | |
political risk so the funds are prepared to invest. Our view is you | :31:54. | :32:00. | |
can particular to Plan A deficit reduction and get growth as well. | :32:00. | :32:03. | |
Get Mario Draghi in a room with Angela Merkel and get them to sort | :32:03. | :32:07. | |
it out. When the Germans actually come to the rescue then it will | :32:07. | :32:11. | |
sort itself out. It is kind of humiliating for a Chancellor to say | :32:11. | :32:15. | |
it is nothing to do with me, get Angela Merkel to sort it out? | :32:15. | :32:18. | |
not nothing, but the key factor, that is the key difference we have | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
seen over the last three months. you think it matters n that sense, | :32:21. | :32:25. | |
who the British Chancellor is, Mr Osborne has been having a lot of | :32:25. | :32:29. | |
bad publicity today, whoever the Chancellor is would be having it in | :32:29. | :32:33. | |
the neck any way. Does it matter? Yes, of course it matters what | :32:33. | :32:37. | |
positions we take. Therefore it matters who the Chancellor is. I | :32:37. | :32:41. | |
would absolutely agree, while the eurozone is not sorted out we won't | :32:41. | :32:46. | |
get back to healthy growth. At the very least we need to avoid a | :32:46. | :32:48. | |
downward spiral. What the Chancellor can do in terms of | :32:48. | :32:53. | |
spending a bit more, in terms of helping us move towards these | :32:53. | :32:58. | |
infrastructure projects people have talked about. I'm not sure it is -- | :32:58. | :33:03. | |
talking about. I'm not sure what is as much as is said can be done. | :33:03. | :33:08. | |
Unless we do housing, it take as long time to have an impact. They | :33:08. | :33:12. | |
have a multilayer affect, a lot of money stays in the economy and | :33:12. | :33:14. | |
doesn't disappear into foreign lands, because you are doing it | :33:14. | :33:20. | |
here. You tont have to in put a lot -- don't have to input a lot to do | :33:20. | :33:24. | |
T but what is going on now is also a discussion about whether we need | :33:24. | :33:27. | |
to do something extra or on tax. Whether we need to do something for | :33:27. | :33:32. | |
the poorer people, because they are the ones that spend more. Whether | :33:32. | :33:36. | |
there has to be some targeting reduction in the cost to people, if | :33:36. | :33:39. | |
you like, in terms of the way they live, to make a difference. We are | :33:39. | :33:43. | |
getting back to the vicious part of the circle, which is it is a lot | :33:43. | :33:47. | |
easier to spend money than pay off the deficit. That causes the | :33:47. | :33:51. | |
problems you are worried about. Just to pick up that point you made | :33:51. | :33:54. | |
about the United States, do you seriously think by the end of the | :33:54. | :33:58. | |
year, looking back the past three or four years, people would say | :33:58. | :34:02. | |
they have done a lot better than we have, you say people will be | :34:02. | :34:04. | |
pointing the finger there? Unemployment, in front of an | :34:04. | :34:12. | |
election, they usually see, in what we call the US presidential legs | :34:12. | :34:22. | |
:34:22. | :34:24. | ||
year it goes down. It is stubbornly on these charts, and based on a | :34:24. | :34:28. | |
failure to improve the unemployment statistics. By the time we get to | :34:28. | :34:33. | |
the election, we might see signals in the bond market, and with the US | :34:33. | :34:38. | |
dollar, as disquiet, with a failure to do more with the deficit and | :34:39. | :34:42. | |
failure to come up with more. Two things you can always predict | :34:42. | :34:47. | |
about the Olympics, records will be broken, and some athletes will be | :34:47. | :34:50. | |
caught cheating. Today nine athletes were banned from the games | :34:50. | :34:55. | |
after drugs tests. Including the middle distance runner, Mariem | :34:55. | :35:01. | |
Selsouli, who was tipped to win gold. There is a new test for human | :35:01. | :35:06. | |
growth hormone, but one unofficial sport is a came of cat and mouse, | :35:06. | :35:11. | |
the cheats, the suppliers and the authorities. We reveal how some | :35:11. | :35:14. | |
athletes are finding new ways to cheat, and authorities are finding | :35:14. | :35:24. | |
:35:24. | :35:27. | ||
new ways to catch them. For many endurance athletes, it is | :35:27. | :35:35. | |
their secret weapon. Training at altitude. 6,000 feet above sea | :35:35. | :35:41. | |
level in the pier knee, athletes are preparing for -- Pyrenees, | :35:41. | :35:44. | |
athletes are preparing for London 2012, others take a different route. | :35:44. | :35:46. | |
The authorities are doing everything they can to stop the | :35:46. | :35:55. | |
cheats. But is it a race they can ever win? You do dedicate your life | :35:55. | :35:59. | |
to training hard, and geting the best out of yourselves -- getting | :35:59. | :36:04. | |
the best out of yourself, and to hear one of your competitor might | :36:04. | :36:08. | |
have taken an easy route and short cut is frustrating. Paula Radcliffe | :36:08. | :36:12. | |
is doing naturally, what others turn to drugs for. Train this high | :36:12. | :36:18. | |
and the human body produces more of the hormone, EPO, this stimulates | :36:18. | :36:23. | |
the growth of red blood cell, which allows athletes to take on more | :36:23. | :36:29. | |
oxygen, and muscles to perform better. Injecting EP does the same | :36:29. | :36:34. | |
thing, and it is banned. -- EPO does the same thing, and it is | :36:34. | :36:38. | |
banned. She disagrees because it puts in question everybody. I had | :36:38. | :36:42. | |
my performances doubted. It is wanting to be able to prove, in | :36:42. | :36:46. | |
some way, they were 100% clean. I know that inside and it means a | :36:46. | :36:53. | |
hell of a lot to me. At the same time to be able to prove that would | :36:53. | :36:58. | |
mean a lot to me. But the standard of drug testing isn't at the level | :36:58. | :37:04. | |
where everyone can believe in the system. | :37:04. | :37:09. | |
It is lock-down day at the official Olympics testing lab. Samples are | :37:09. | :37:14. | |
in from the London Marathon in April. But the Olympics, the plan | :37:14. | :37:18. | |
is to test one in every two competitors, including all | :37:18. | :37:22. | |
medallists. And every day they will test 400 or so samples. More than | :37:22. | :37:27. | |
at any previous games. The lab's been paid for by GlaxoSmithKline, | :37:27. | :37:33. | |
but it is run by a special team -- specialist team from King's College | :37:33. | :37:39. | |
London. What you see in the labs are method that is are superfast | :37:39. | :37:45. | |
and super accurate. This should give a message to athlete that is | :37:46. | :37:49. | |
if you take drugs you will get caught. Don't come to London and | :37:49. | :37:55. | |
take drugs. We want drugs to be used safely, not misused. The sport | :37:55. | :37:59. | |
is about integrity, health and honesty. We want only clean | :37:59. | :38:07. | |
athletes taking part in the games. That might be the ambition, but | :38:07. | :38:10. | |
however clever the science deployed to stop the cheats, doping remains | :38:10. | :38:15. | |
a constant undercurrent. And what's new, is that attention is shifting | :38:15. | :38:19. | |
beyond just the athlete to their entourage. The trainers and medics | :38:19. | :38:26. | |
that support them. Dwain Chambers, the British | :38:26. | :38:30. | |
sprinter, controversially allowed back into Olympic competition this | :38:30. | :38:38. | |
year, tested positive in 2003 for a steroid called THG, or the Clear, | :38:38. | :38:45. | |
behind Chambers was a Californian nutritionists, Victor Conti, and | :38:45. | :38:49. | |
organic chemist, Patrick Arnold, credited with designing the steroid. | :38:49. | :38:54. | |
And just this summer, US anti- doping authorities charged seven- | :38:54. | :38:58. | |
times Tour de France winner, Lance Armstrong, with use of banned | :38:58. | :39:02. | |
substances. Unusually, the team behind him, including his doctors, | :39:02. | :39:06. | |
allegedly involved, were also charged. They all strongly deny the | :39:06. | :39:14. | |
charges, and Armstrong notes that he has never failed a drug test. To | :39:14. | :39:21. | |
take on that culture, the World Anti-Doping Agency, has turned to | :39:21. | :39:26. | |
the big pharmaceutical companies for help, companies like Glaxo | :39:26. | :39:31. | |
smilt Klein, scientists will warn them about any -- GlaxoSmithKline, | :39:32. | :39:39. | |
scientists will warn them about any new drug and how to test for it. | :39:39. | :39:42. | |
The test case involving Dwain Chambers would indicate there is a | :39:42. | :39:45. | |
great motivation for an athlete who wants to cheat, or an organisation | :39:45. | :39:49. | |
who wants them to cheat, to be able to have something they think we | :39:49. | :39:53. | |
don't know about. It is easy to see the same circumstances could arise, | :39:53. | :39:59. | |
if someone could get hold of a drug in a pharmaceutical company's | :39:59. | :40:03. | |
pipeline t could be used with impunity, at least for several | :40:03. | :40:06. | |
years, enough to win yourself a gold medal somewhere perhaps. | :40:06. | :40:12. | |
However, with this arrangement, we will let WADA know right away, | :40:12. | :40:16. | |
forewarned is forearmed. Bradley Wiggins has emphasised all the way | :40:16. | :40:21. | |
through, to his triumphant finish of the Tour de France, that his win | :40:21. | :40:24. | |
means so much, because he races clean. And because doping has | :40:24. | :40:34. | |
dogged the tour since the late 1990s, most most recently rogue | :40:34. | :40:38. | |
athletes are said to control the amount of drugs they take, so their | :40:38. | :40:42. | |
levels never go over allowed limits. A journalist who followed the race | :40:42. | :40:47. | |
through all the years of scandals, says an extended web of players | :40:47. | :40:52. | |
made it possible. It is combination of using dodgy doctors and shadey | :40:52. | :40:57. | |
scientists, and also athletes pursuing an edge themselves. The | :40:57. | :41:01. | |
ability to do that has been enhanced by the Internet. There is, | :41:01. | :41:08. | |
again, lots ofen he can dotal -- anecdotal evidence that athletes | :41:08. | :41:13. | |
talk about which products are useful. There is quite a background | :41:13. | :41:19. | |
of competition to see who can get to those products first. Who can | :41:19. | :41:26. | |
avoid detection first. It is an arms race mentality. Scientists and | :41:26. | :41:30. | |
athletes will tell you sport is much cleaner now than it was even a | :41:30. | :41:34. | |
few decades ago. They will also concede that there are people out | :41:34. | :41:38. | |
there who have found ways to work the system. And others who are | :41:38. | :41:42. | |
looking for new ways to increase performance without being caught. | :41:42. | :41:51. | |
The future of doping in sport could prove darker. By studying identical | :41:51. | :41:56. | |
twins, Genette cyst Tim Spector is discovering the genes we are born | :41:56. | :42:00. | |
with aren't set in stone. We can alter how each gene behaves and is | :42:00. | :42:04. | |
expressed in our bowedies. It is the new science of epigenetic, and | :42:04. | :42:09. | |
could have an impact on sport. He foresees a time when athletes | :42:09. | :42:14. | |
simply take a tablet to turn up the volume of useful genes. | :42:14. | :42:17. | |
switching certain genes on and off, you can change the proteins they | :42:17. | :42:22. | |
use, and depending on which genes you are targeting, they have | :42:22. | :42:26. | |
different affects. We know certain endurance genes are associated with | :42:26. | :42:30. | |
being a top athlete, these endurance, long distance genes, | :42:30. | :42:35. | |
give you a greater lung power, it could be turned on. In someone who | :42:35. | :42:38. | |
is already a pretty good athlete, would it be worth doing that, | :42:38. | :42:44. | |
tweaking in that way? I think the level of top athletes, a few per | :42:44. | :42:49. | |
cent here and there, can have enormous differences on their world | :42:49. | :42:52. | |
rankings. Certainly, if I was a top athlete, in the sports business, I | :42:52. | :42:56. | |
would be thinking of any ways that are legal to change my genes to | :42:56. | :43:04. | |
improve things. Anti-doping authorities have banned | :43:04. | :43:08. | |
Genetteic manipulation, and the scientist os -- genetic | :43:08. | :43:14. | |
manipulation, and the scientists on the trail say they have made it | :43:14. | :43:18. | |
harder to cheat. Samples are stored for eight years, if any new tests | :43:18. | :43:23. | |
come up they can look back and see if anyone was cheating. There is | :43:23. | :43:27. | |
the biological passport, a snapshot of the athlete's physiology, and | :43:27. | :43:32. | |
should stay constant over time if it changes, that is a sign they | :43:32. | :43:36. | |
could have cheated. The authorities think they are doing quite well and | :43:36. | :43:39. | |
they have made significant grounds. In some areas they have, I worry | :43:39. | :43:43. | |
that we are being presented a makover. And that, actually, | :43:43. | :43:49. | |
underground, there is still loot of doping activity going on. You | :43:49. | :43:54. | |
wonder how winnable the fight is. If you talk about athletes who have | :43:54. | :43:58. | |
been through the experience and been banned, they will say it is a | :43:58. | :44:03. | |
constant battle because there will always be somebody looking for an | :44:03. | :44:09. | |
edge, and always people who are interested. Back in 2001, Paula | :44:09. | :44:12. | |
Radcliffe took a difficult decision to protest. Russian athlete, Olga | :44:12. | :44:17. | |
Yegorova, had failed a drugs test before the World Athletics | :44:17. | :44:23. | |
Championship, but was allowed to race. And ten years later, she says | :44:23. | :44:28. | |
her strong anti-doping stance is about sticking to the values that | :44:28. | :44:34. | |
keep her competing. My biggest goal and biggest aim is when I finish my | :44:34. | :44:37. | |
career I walk away and say that was the best I could do. I know that | :44:38. | :44:42. | |
was everything that I could give. That was all I could do. I want to | :44:42. | :44:47. | |
be able to look back with pride, I want my children to look at the | :44:47. | :44:52. | |
performances and say mummy did that and she worked hard for that. Being | :44:53. | :44:57. | |
able to stand on the top and look at the people you have beaten in | :44:57. | :45:06. | |
the eye and know you have done it fairly, that means a lot to me. | :45:06. | :45:11. | |
With the science of doping becoming more sophisticated, and the teams | :45:11. | :45:16. | |
behind the cheats scouring science journals for clues to the next drug. | :45:16. | :45:20. | |
Those trying to catch the cheats are struggling to keep up. For many, | :45:20. | :45:25. | |
the cheats have already done enough to place an element of doubt over | :45:25. | :45:33. | |
every sporting performance. Tomorrow Susan will reveal how Team | :45:33. | :45:37. | |
GB is harnessing perfectly legal advances in science and technology | :45:37. | :45:47. | |
:45:47. | :45:47. | ||
Apology for the loss of subtitles for 48 seconds | :45:47. | :46:35. | |
to improve athletes' performance. That's all from nice night tonight. | :46:36. | :46:40. | |
We wanted to leave you with news that South Korea is not the same | :46:40. | :46:43. | |
country as northyia. Perhaps, like most people you knew that already, | :46:43. | :46:46. | |
but at the Olympics, when the north Korean women's football team | :46:46. | :46:51. | |
prepared for their game today, they walked out when the South Korean | :46:51. | :47:01. | |
:47:01. | :47:34. | ||
flag was shown. Here is what Good evening, another hot day in | :47:34. | :47:37. | |
the south. We have more of that hot weather to come for a couple more | :47:38. | :47:42. | |
days. As we look to Thursday's forecast, more cloud in the north, | :47:42. | :47:46. | |
where it is cooler. We are looking at a bit of rain come the afternoon | :47:46. | :47:50. | |
across parts of southern Scotland. Some bright weather through | :47:50. | :47:54. | |
northern England, temperatures in Manchester at 25 degrees. Clearer | :47:54. | :47:58. | |
skies further south, yet again we could see 30 for south-east England. | :47:58. | :48:03. | |
Through the afternoon some sea breezes developing, sunny skies | :48:03. | :48:07. | |
across part of Devon and Cornwall. With that heat, the small risk of | :48:07. | :48:11. | |
afternoon showers across part of Wales. Most places should miss them. | :48:11. | :48:14. | |
If they are triggered, they are likely to be heavy and thundery. | :48:14. | :48:18. | |
For Northern Ireland a change come the afternoon. With more cloud and | :48:18. | :48:22. | |
the risk of rain further south. The best of any brightness along the | :48:22. | :48:27. | |
north coast. The North West Highlands of Scotland holding on to | :48:27. | :48:37. | |
:48:37. | :48:48. |