02/08/2012 Newsnight


02/08/2012

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Emily Maitlis.


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He said he was willing to do whatever it takes to save the euro,

:00:12.:00:16.

but not just yet. The President of the European Central Bank's words

:00:16.:00:23.

can make markets leap and crash. While Mr Draghi was speaking, the

:00:23.:00:27.

Spanish stock market lost 5% of its value, and the interest rates that

:00:27.:00:30.

Spain and Italy have to pay on debts spiked up.

:00:30.:00:33.

Another great day for British cycling, Chris Hoy gets his fifth

:00:33.:00:41.

gold medal and sets a new world record. Kofi Annan quits his role

:00:41.:00:45.

as Syria mediator, frustrated by his lack of progress. At a time

:00:45.:00:52.

when we need, when the Syrian people desperately need action,

:00:52.:00:56.

there continues to be finger pointing and name calling in the

:00:56.:00:59.

Security Council. Thousands are fleeing Syria, but neighbouring

:00:59.:01:06.

countries can no longer cope. Doucet does reports from -- Lyse

:01:06.:01:14.

Doucet reports from a struggling border. Black and ethnic minority

:01:14.:01:23.

groups could hold the keys to Downing Street. I have been told to

:01:24.:01:29.

vote Labour all my life, to have another man from another party in

:01:29.:01:34.

my room is like the police force. If it wasn't so serious it would be

:01:34.:01:37.

quite funny, Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, spoke

:01:37.:01:44.

today of his plans to save Spain and Italy. With comedy timing,

:01:44.:01:47.

their Stock Exchanges simultaneously took a dive as he

:01:47.:01:51.

talked, the Spanish market losing 5% of its value during his press

:01:51.:01:56.

conference. A week after promising to do "whatever it takes", the ECB

:01:56.:02:01.

chief seems to have quietly added the world, "not just yet", has he

:02:01.:02:08.

set out a Road Map for the out As the crisis swirls, Mario Draghi

:02:08.:02:11.

has become, inadvertantly, the most powerful man in the world. He has

:02:11.:02:16.

the power to save the euro, or let it sink. And last week he said,

:02:16.:02:21.

watch this, I'm about to do something really big. Today, he

:02:21.:02:31.

started with big talk. Related to fears of the stability of the euro

:02:31.:02:34.

are unacceptable, and need to be addressed in a fundamental manner.

:02:34.:02:41.

The euro is irreversible. But, then, Mario Draghi boldy went where, well,

:02:41.:02:46.

every other European policy maker has already gone, round in circles.

:02:46.:02:51.

The governing council may consider undertaking further, non-standard,

:02:51.:02:56.

monetary policy measures, according to what is required to repair

:02:56.:03:03.

monetary policy transmission. Over the coming weeks, we will design

:03:03.:03:09.

the appropriate modalities for such policy measures. Brief translation,

:03:09.:03:13.

nothing happening. Mario Draghi couldn't have been clearer, the ECB,

:03:13.:03:17.

he said, will save the euro, by going to the markets and buying up

:03:17.:03:21.

the bonds of Italy and Spain. But, only when those two countries

:03:21.:03:26.

accept a massive bail out, and the austerity that goes with it. The

:03:26.:03:31.

markets are wrong, he said, to doubt the survival of the euro, and

:03:31.:03:34.

this is what the markets thought of that.

:03:34.:03:40.

The euro plunged, the Italian stock market also plunged, and Spain's

:03:40.:03:44.

cost of borrowing spiked. I think the ECB is now essentially saying

:03:44.:03:48.

wait five weeks until the next ECB meeting, and we will have developed

:03:48.:03:51.

plans further by then. I'm not sure if the markets will wait five weeks,

:03:51.:03:55.

when they are in a pattern of crises in the eurozone kicking off

:03:55.:03:59.

in the August time. I can easily see Spanish yields under pressure

:03:59.:04:04.

for the next few week, Italian yields under pressure. Meanwhile

:04:04.:04:06.

the Italian and Spanish economies are starting to contract, they are

:04:06.:04:10.

in recession. The longer the ECB takes to deal with this, the longer

:04:10.:04:15.

the pain goes on in southern Europe. Not just southern Europe. Draghi

:04:15.:04:18.

confirmed what the market surveys have already signalled, the entire

:04:19.:04:21.

eurozone economy is in trouble. This graph, just one of many

:04:21.:04:26.

signals a slowdown in the autumn, and beneath the surface, the very

:04:26.:04:32.

fabric of the eurozone is under strain. Just 20% of loans in Europe

:04:32.:04:41.

use cross-border collateral now, compared with 50% years -- six

:04:41.:04:46.

years ago. Across the eurozone, is a huge

:04:46.:04:50.

level of Government indebtedness, combined with extremely slow growth.

:04:50.:04:55.

Whilst r whilst the countries within the periphery remain within

:04:55.:04:59.

the euro, there is no prospect of these countries growing their way

:04:59.:05:03.

out of the debt problem. There are huge fiscal head winds to come,

:05:03.:05:07.

with ageing populations and so on. I think the markets are correctly

:05:07.:05:12.

pricing the credit risk in the periphery of the eurozone, I think

:05:12.:05:17.

they are underestimating risk in other countries. All eyes now are

:05:17.:05:22.

on Spain, already simmering with protests and political rouse. It is

:05:22.:05:30.

just pledging to make 65 billion euros worth of tax rises and cuts.

:05:30.:05:33.

Draghi effectively told them to take a much bigger bail out for the

:05:33.:05:39.

entire economy. The implication of that, more cuts, and more protests.

:05:39.:05:43.

So the prime ministers of Italy and Spain met today and plerpblged,

:05:43.:05:50.

well, about the same -- pledged the same as Mr Draghi, to think about

:05:50.:05:53.

stuff. There is no sign they are about to seek a bail out. The

:05:53.:05:57.

European Central Bank has always been the key to saving the euro, it

:05:57.:06:00.

can unleash bail outs en massive scale, outstripping what the

:06:00.:06:04.

Governments and the IMF can do, because it can print money and just

:06:04.:06:07.

lend it. The problem has always been Germany, and today it was

:06:07.:06:15.

still gerl. -- Germany. This man is Germany's representative at the ECB.

:06:15.:06:19.

He was the only one, today, not to vote for action. There wasn't

:06:19.:06:22.

really much action. The stakes are huge, we have already seen bail

:06:22.:06:26.

outs in Greece, we have seen bail outs in Portugal, in Ireland, but

:06:26.:06:31.

all of those countries are small fry compared to Spain or Italy.

:06:31.:06:34.

These are two huge economies, they have banking sectors, particularly

:06:34.:06:37.

in Spain, which are in trouble. We have rising unemployment and the

:06:37.:06:43.

potential for a really nasty crash in the eurozone, far worse than

:06:43.:06:48.

anything we have seen so far. next? It is a giant game of chicken,

:06:48.:06:52.

if Draghi can get the measures promised and force a massive bail

:06:52.:06:56.

out and keep Greece from going bust, the euro is saved, if not, it is

:06:56.:06:59.

not. Paul's here for bait more on that

:06:59.:07:03.

giant game of chicken. This time last week, Paul, a lot of people

:07:03.:07:07.

getting very excited by the words "we will do whatever it takes". He

:07:07.:07:11.

meant without any action? He said, "we will do whatever it takes,

:07:11.:07:16.

believe me, it will be enough". What he should have probably said

:07:16.:07:21.

was, "hang on lads, I've got a great idea", that famous line from

:07:21.:07:25.

the Italian Job. It is a great idea what he has done today is to spell

:07:25.:07:29.

it out. Since October, the European Union and the euro zone have been

:07:29.:07:35.

trapped between almost two types of solution. One solution is, you

:07:35.:07:39.

unleash about 500 billion worth of bail out from the IMF and European

:07:39.:07:42.

states, and you save Europe that way. The other way, always

:07:42.:07:47.

preferred, the ECB has money on tap, it can just do it. Its future money,

:07:47.:07:53.

it is not taken from treasures now. I think what drag -- treasuries now.

:07:53.:07:58.

Draghi pulled the debate firmly back to how the ECB could be the

:07:58.:08:02.

ultimate solution. And it is Italy and Spain take a bail out, take a

:08:02.:08:06.

lot more austerity, then they get money from the bail out fund, and

:08:06.:08:10.

then the taps are turned on T would work, if, of course, the markets

:08:10.:08:13.

don't crash the entire thing between now and when they get round

:08:13.:08:18.

to designing it. Is the sequencing enough to take us through the

:08:18.:08:22.

summer. Can it stave off disaster until October? The eurocrisis does

:08:22.:08:29.

have a remarkable ability to go quiet at the exact moment of the

:08:29.:08:33.

European Mediterranean yachting season. It did it last year, and it

:08:33.:08:37.

probably will do again. We were only talking, this is a big game of

:08:37.:08:40.

chicken between states and markets. If the states, I would put my money

:08:40.:08:44.

on the IMF, the EU, the eurozone, actually doing this, and the

:08:44.:08:48.

markets losing money, who are betting on a clop. If it were only

:08:48.:08:52.

the case of the two -- collapse. If it were the case of only two in the

:08:52.:08:55.

game. There is a third set of people in the game, the European

:08:55.:09:00.

people. Every week that goes by, it is dawning on the Spanish and

:09:00.:09:04.

Italian people, that they will get the Greek treatment. Those of us

:09:04.:09:08.

who know the politics and social demo graphy of those countries, are

:09:08.:09:12.

pretty unconvinced nel go through what Greece did -- they will go

:09:12.:09:16.

through what Greece did, without some earlier political battles.

:09:16.:09:21.

They got Greece wrong? They already know they got Greece wrong, they

:09:21.:09:25.

are not doing it to Spain, they are letting Spain set the terms of the

:09:25.:09:28.

bail out. Greece is weeks away from the final renegotiation before they

:09:28.:09:37.

give up the ghost on that country. Between 3.30 and around 3.37

:09:37.:09:42.

Britain suddenly went bonkers. Team GB claimed a gold in canoeing, a

:09:42.:09:46.

silver in canoeing, a gold in shooting and silver in Judo. It was

:09:46.:09:50.

later matched with the cyclist Chris Hoy breaking a world record

:09:50.:09:55.

and claiming his memorable fifth gold medal. The disappointment lay

:09:55.:10:00.

with the women's cycling duo, with Victoria Pendleton, they were

:10:00.:10:10.
:10:10.:10:23.

denied a medal with a takeover They say the Olympics shouldn't be

:10:23.:10:28.

about medals. That's df infinitely true when you start the day a --

:10:28.:10:32.

that's definitely true when you Stuart the day in 11th in the medal

:10:32.:10:37.

table. Suddenly we started to move up. Suddenly a close silver in the

:10:37.:10:40.

canoeing had the whole Newsnight office screaming.

:10:40.:10:48.

There was gold and silver in the canoe slam lem. -- slalom. Then our

:10:48.:10:54.

first Judo medal in 12 years. All right, so we might not be talking

:10:54.:11:00.

about the 100m final here. But a gold is a gold. Just ask Pete

:11:00.:11:04.

Wilson in the double trap shooting. You are an Olympic gold medallist?

:11:04.:11:09.

I am, that is weird to say. That I'm an Olympic gold medallist. Dad!

:11:09.:11:14.

It didn't all go our way, Britain's women broke the world record but

:11:14.:11:17.

were punished for an early changover, and lost out on the

:11:17.:11:22.

chance of a medal. It is one of those things, really. Now and again

:11:22.:11:25.

rubbish things happen, and this is one of those days.

:11:25.:11:30.

Even more pressure, then, on Sir Chris Hoy and his team-mates. But

:11:30.:11:34.

they delivered. A world record and a gold to take Britain up to fifth

:11:34.:11:44.
:11:44.:11:44.

in the medal table. With me now the cycling legend and

:11:44.:11:51.

1992 Olympic gold medallists Chris Boardman. Talk us through it, why

:11:51.:11:56.

are we so good at cycling, it started with your era, 1992? It did,

:11:56.:12:01.

the real changing bouyant was lottery funding, lot hery funding

:12:01.:12:05.

and talent. There was a gold medal in 2000, the lottery funding came

:12:05.:12:11.

on stream. What we were doing back in the 1990s was able to expand.

:12:11.:12:13.

What happens is you have one individual who gets a gold medal,

:12:13.:12:18.

the others who train with them say that is a bridgeable gap, and that

:12:18.:12:22.

spreads out and a whole system of built from there. It has slowly

:12:22.:12:28.

spread out across discipline. important is the money in terms of,

:12:28.:12:34.

it came to cycling, it could have gone somewhere else? It has made a

:12:34.:12:39.

big difference. Cycling is a venue sport, everything is built around

:12:39.:12:43.

the velodrome in Manchester. Road cycling is well supported, there is

:12:43.:12:47.

millions in that. Track cycling isn't, the finances made a huge

:12:47.:12:52.

difference. Lizzie Armistead, when she claimed that brilliant silver

:12:52.:12:56.

medal, made the point quickly that women had felt left out or second

:12:56.:13:00.

rate in a lot of sports. Is that something you recognise? There is a

:13:00.:13:03.

ways to go at the moment, certainly in the Olympic sport, there was a

:13:03.:13:09.

disparity in the amount of the events of the Olympic events. They

:13:09.:13:12.

have equal events now. On the professional side it is still very

:13:12.:13:15.

different, there is still differences in the Olympic events

:13:15.:13:21.

in distance, the women might ride a 500m timetable, the men a kilometer,

:13:21.:13:27.

why the difference? There is still a way to go. If you look at the duo

:13:27.:13:32.

today, the British response, rubbish days happen. That is an

:13:32.:13:37.

absolutely guting moment for the duo there. But something, I guess,

:13:37.:13:41.

every athlete comes very close to? When you are pushing it to the

:13:41.:13:44.

limit, sometimes you cross that particular threshold, that happened

:13:44.:13:48.

today. They just mistimed the takeover? It is a bit like changing

:13:48.:13:53.

over a baton, you changover outside the zone that is the end. To push

:13:53.:13:57.

the limits you have to be right on the edge, pushing it to the edge of

:13:57.:13:59.

the zone. That is what happened today. They got the call wrong. It

:13:59.:14:02.

is so tragic, particularly for Jessica Varnish, this was her

:14:02.:14:06.

Olympic shot at a medal, four years of work she had put into it for one

:14:06.:14:10.

lap of the track. That was it. So close, world record time, they were

:14:10.:14:15.

really on track for it. That is the way it works. Chris, a lot of the

:14:15.:14:20.

Olympic sports are things that we admire, we look at, but we know we

:14:20.:14:25.

will not attempt. You will not pick up a javelin or go canoeing every

:14:25.:14:29.

weekend, cycling is something very close to the British character. Do

:14:30.:14:36.

you think that, you know, we are embracing that because we see it in

:14:36.:14:40.

ourselves. Is that because everyone's on the road now? It is a

:14:40.:14:43.

wonderfully accessible tool for transport. It is something you can

:14:43.:14:49.

do from 8-089, and either side of that. Unlike running you can free-

:14:49.:14:54.

wheel and shoos your speed. It is massively accessible, I hope it is

:14:54.:14:58.

a massive advert for the sport, and it will ripple out and we will see

:14:58.:15:03.

it as a tool for transport. The implications of success here could

:15:03.:15:08.

be huge. In overturning the way our cities are run. Bradley Wiggins

:15:08.:15:13.

made the point, after the tragic death of the cyclist in London,

:15:13.:15:17.

that he felt helmets, not speaking directly about the young man who

:15:18.:15:23.

died, that helmets should be enforcible by law. I'm not sure

:15:23.:15:25.

about that, statistics don't necessarily support it either. It

:15:25.:15:29.

is a tool for transport, and helmets are a tool that are used

:15:29.:15:33.

when required. I think really the question is why do we need helmets

:15:33.:15:37.

now and we didn't hen years ago. I -- ten years ago. They can distract

:15:37.:15:41.

from the real argument, which is why don't we make an environment

:15:41.:15:44.

that lets this activities take place. It so was so many problems

:15:44.:15:47.

with pollution, health and congestion, why don't we invest in

:15:47.:15:53.

it. What is that, you have a Mayor of London a keen cyclist, throwing

:15:53.:15:57.

money at it with the Boris bikes? There is a finite amount of road

:15:57.:16:01.

space, we are at a juncture now where you have to make a choice,

:16:01.:16:03.

that is politically difficult, somebody has to pavement at the

:16:03.:16:06.

moment road design is very much, for a cyclist, is get the cyclist

:16:06.:16:09.

out of the way of the car safely, rather than let's move the car out

:16:09.:16:13.

of the way of the cyclist. That is a big call for a politician to make.

:16:13.:16:17.

You don't think anyone will do that? I think things like we are

:16:17.:16:21.

seeing right now in the Olympics is the focus on this sport, along with

:16:21.:16:24.

the upswell, the amount of people cycling in London, in what is, let

:16:24.:16:27.

as say a challenging environment, now is a good time to make a call

:16:27.:16:35.

like that. Thank you. With ill- concealed frustration, Kofi Annan

:16:36.:16:41.

announced he would quit his post as mediator to Syria at the end of the

:16:41.:16:44.

month. Speaking of the name-calling and finger-pointing within the

:16:44.:16:47.

United Nations Security Council. The former head of the UN was

:16:47.:16:51.

scathing in his criticism of world powers to stop the escalating

:16:51.:16:54.

violence. As fight anything Syria intensifies, thousands are fleeing

:16:54.:16:58.

to neighbouring countries, Jordan has seen nearly 40,000 refugees

:16:58.:17:01.

cross its border and decided this to take action.

:17:01.:17:10.

Lyse Doucet is there for us now. The Kofi Annan peace process has

:17:10.:17:14.

added new pessimism right across the region, ever since he took on

:17:14.:17:18.

what he called a "difficult" assignment. Many across the region

:17:18.:17:21.

said it simply wouldn't work. There is a truism across the region as

:17:22.:17:25.

well, no matter how much trouble his plan was in, there was no Plan

:17:25.:17:29.

B, there was simply no other plan. Now that there is no Kofi Annan as

:17:29.:17:35.

mediator, it means, not only is his plan in trouble, but Syria is in

:17:35.:17:38.

greater trouble, and all that is left is the violence. The violence

:17:38.:17:42.

is growing, which means not only is there a crisis inside Syria, there

:17:42.:17:45.

is a growing crisis on all of its borders, underlining, yet again,

:17:45.:17:52.

that this conflict has the capacity to reek havoc ayes cross the region.

:17:53.:17:58.

The most runnable -- across the nation. The most vulnerable is the

:17:58.:18:04.

tiny poor kingdom of Jordan. It has always been battered by neighbours'

:18:04.:18:08.

crises, and always taken in waves of refugees. In recent weeks, as

:18:08.:18:12.

the number of Syrians crossing into Jordan reached 2,000, the

:18:12.:18:15.

Government decided it had to take action.

:18:15.:18:20.

After months of living in war, moments of peace and quiet in this

:18:20.:18:27.

transit camp in Jordan. But kink Abdullah Park isn't the kind of

:18:27.:18:32.

place where children normal low play. The Syrians here are still

:18:32.:18:38.

scared, most don't want their faces shown. Ahmed was studying English

:18:38.:18:41.

literature until the fighting was too much toe bear. Even the

:18:42.:18:45.

fighting on the way out was dangerous. It was so dangerous, it

:18:45.:18:54.

was seven miles walking. We can't make any sound on the road. Because

:18:54.:18:59.

the regime army, if they discovered that we are snaking to Jordan, he

:18:59.:19:05.

will kill us. Do you feel safe in Jordan? Safe,

:19:05.:19:12.

yes, but comfort, no. There is a different struggle now.

:19:12.:19:17.

Hand-outs are stressful. Even if everyone is getting enough water

:19:17.:19:22.

and food, but this camp was set up for 800 people, 8,000 have come

:19:22.:19:28.

here. Forcing Jordan to re-think its response. Syrians had been

:19:28.:19:31.

allowed to leave these temporary centres to stay with relatives or

:19:31.:19:38.

friend. Not any more. Security forces guard all the exits. Jordan

:19:39.:19:43.

is also shutting other transit camps. Months ago, when dozens

:19:43.:19:50.

crossed the border daily, this facility could handle the influx.

:19:50.:19:54.

It looks like the Syrians who lived here had to leave in a hurry. They

:19:54.:19:58.

probably did. The authorities in Jordan are struggling to keep pace

:19:58.:20:04.

with the intensity of the Syrian crisis. These were meant to be

:20:04.:20:07.

temporary transit camp, but they became so overcrowded, the

:20:07.:20:11.

Jordanians have had to find other places for the Syrians to stay.

:20:11.:20:16.

This is where they are being moved. A tented city in the desert, about

:20:16.:20:22.

15 miles from the Syrian border. It is big enough, eventually, to give

:20:22.:20:28.

refuge, to 100,000 Syrians. The UN raced to put up tents in this first

:20:28.:20:33.

official camp, mark Agnew phase, and sending a message, -- marking a

:20:33.:20:41.

new phase, and sending a message. There is a strain on the economy,

:20:41.:20:47.

it is taking its toll on our education, health, energy and water.

:20:47.:20:52.

We have had to play the balance, first to shoulder our response

:20:52.:20:58.

toblgts Syrian brothers, and on -- to our Syrian brothers, and on the

:20:58.:21:02.

other hand our people. Most of the strain is crossings across from

:21:02.:21:08.

Syria, on a border like this, exports have all but stop. It is

:21:08.:21:11.

only brave traders bringing in produce. This small kingdom has

:21:11.:21:19.

always been battered by its neighbours' crises, Jordan is under

:21:19.:21:22.

unprecedented pressure, with the king under pressure for reform.

:21:22.:21:27.

Of this the Deputy Prime Minister under the Iraq crisis a decade ago.

:21:27.:21:32.

There are two kind of fears, one is a refugee problem that might spill

:21:33.:21:37.

over to Jordan. We have gone through this before in the first

:21:37.:21:42.

and second gulf crises. More importantly, also, are the

:21:42.:21:47.

political reprecussions of the fall of the Syrian regime. Maybe an

:21:47.:21:51.

emboldenment of the opposition, particularly the Brotherhood, and a

:21:51.:21:55.

concern in Jordan this might spill over domestically, as far as the

:21:55.:21:59.

political reform process is concerned. In a region riven with

:21:59.:22:04.

conflict, threats cross frontiers. Jordan is being extra vigilent, it

:22:04.:22:08.

has already detained one Syrian group bringing in weapons.

:22:08.:22:12.

We used to be able to film much closer to the Syrian-Jordanian

:22:12.:22:18.

border. Now the military is so concerned about the possibility of

:22:19.:22:21.

violence spilling across this border, they have pushed us back.

:22:21.:22:25.

Even from here you can see Syria and the military bases just on the

:22:26.:22:35.
:22:36.:22:37.

other side. Both sides are opening fire almost every day.

:22:37.:22:43.

This six-year-old of the first Syrian child to die in the exodus.

:22:43.:22:48.

Killed by Syrian troops as his family fled. Jordanian soldiers

:22:48.:22:54.

responded with covering fire. I went to visit his mother, in the

:22:54.:23:01.

border down of Ramfah. She and her two boys are living with another

:23:01.:23:04.

Syrian family. They are all too scared to show their faces.

:23:04.:23:08.

TRANSLATION: There were 31 of us, and we reach the area between the

:23:08.:23:11.

Jordanian and Syrian borders, when we got there, suddenly we were

:23:12.:23:15.

fired on, Bilal and I were at the back of the group, suddenly I saw

:23:15.:23:20.

him on the ground. He fell down after the first shot. The drawings

:23:20.:23:25.

of children, living in this house, tell terrible stories of violence

:23:25.:23:32.

they left behind. But Basma, whose family fled months ago, tells me

:23:32.:23:35.

she won't go and live in the tented city.

:23:35.:23:39.

TRANSLATION: I will never live there, I will go back to die under

:23:39.:23:43.

gunfire, rather than living in a tent. It is too dusty there, we

:23:44.:23:50.

will be breathing dust, not air, this is no life, no life at all.

:23:50.:23:56.

Even the UN admits no-one would choose to live here. Many refugees

:23:56.:24:02.

we met in transit centres are refusing to move in. Syrians are

:24:02.:24:06.

still welcome, but this country realises their visitors could be

:24:06.:24:11.

here for years. So Jordan now says, Jordan must

:24:11.:24:17.

come first. Jordan's response there clearly

:24:18.:24:23.

accepting that this is going to be a long-term problem, and Kofi

:24:23.:24:29.

Annan's move today suggesting he doesn't have a solution? Indeed.

:24:29.:24:32.

And if Kofi Annan doesn't have a solution, who does? In his

:24:32.:24:36.

statement to the Security Council he talked about an intransigent

:24:36.:24:40.

Syrian Government, a violent opposition increasing, and a

:24:40.:24:44.

Security Council that was in disarray. Now he has a checkered

:24:44.:24:48.

and controversial history as a senior UN official, but Kofi Annan

:24:48.:24:52.

has been known as a very patient, soft-spoken mediator. A man who

:24:52.:24:56.

could go to every capital, from Washington to Tehran, from Beijing

:24:56.:25:00.

to Moscow, the doors were open to him. He also brought together a

:25:00.:25:04.

very good team of people inside and outside the UN system, that he had

:25:04.:25:07.

had worked for. I spent time with them on the ground in Damascus. Not

:25:07.:25:11.

only were they trying to work at the top, to achieve what did seem

:25:11.:25:13.

impossible, to bring the opposition and the Government, the divided

:25:13.:25:18.

opposition and the Government to the same table. But also they were

:25:18.:25:22.

working town-by-town, city-by-city, forensically, to try to achieve

:25:22.:25:25.

local ceasefires, to see if they could bring peace from the bottom

:25:26.:25:31.

up. When General Mood who left at the head of these observers

:25:31.:25:35.

recently, who said it was only a matter of time before the Assad

:25:35.:25:39.

regime would fall. You knew something was about to change with

:25:39.:25:45.

the Annan team. As he said, to pursue his sacred duty to pursue

:25:45.:25:48.

peace, it is another to be a midwife to a violent end of a

:25:48.:25:53.

conflict. Baroness Amos, the UN's spokes

:25:53.:25:57.

wofpl on humanitarian affairs -- spokeswoman on humanitarian affairs,

:25:57.:26:01.

told me she wasn't surprised by Kofi Annan's departure, asked was

:26:01.:26:08.

it an admission that he couldn't get the job done? I'm sure he was

:26:08.:26:12.

hugely frustrated. Mediation is a very difficult thing to do. We have

:26:12.:26:16.

seen an international community not united on Syria. This makes it

:26:16.:26:20.

extraordinarily difficult to get to a point where the kinds of

:26:20.:26:24.

political things that we need to see, to make sure we have a

:26:24.:26:29.

ceasefire, and then to have some kind of process, that ends with the

:26:29.:26:35.

will of the Syrian people, this is a process that is lengthy and you

:26:35.:26:39.

need a united international community to make it happen. He has

:26:39.:26:43.

talked about the finger-pointing and the name-calling and the fact

:26:43.:26:46.

he didn't receive the support the cause deserved, and the fact that

:26:46.:26:52.

the international community of not united. I mean, that sounds like

:26:52.:26:56.

defeat? I don't think it is defeat, I think it is an admission that he

:26:56.:27:02.

has got as far as he can. He was very clear today, that perhaps,

:27:02.:27:07.

having someone else, might help the process. Sometimes that happens. He

:27:07.:27:10.

talked about the possibility of someone else being able to unite

:27:11.:27:15.

those in the region, and unite the broader international community.

:27:15.:27:20.

Who would that be in your mind? That's not for me to say, as I said,

:27:20.:27:23.

the Secretary of State general of the United Nations, with the

:27:23.:27:29.

secretary-general of league of Arab states, will come up with names and

:27:29.:27:34.

talk to people and come up with the right person to take this on.

:27:34.:27:41.

you empathise with the he expression today, you visited Syria,

:27:41.:27:45.

you were not made welcome, where does that leave your next trip?

:27:45.:27:49.

Actually, I'm talking to -- I'm talking to the Syrian authorities

:27:49.:27:52.

now about making another trip as soon as possible. My concerns have

:27:52.:27:57.

always been about the people caught up in this violence. You have

:27:57.:28:01.

called, very clearly, for a humanitarian corridor, you won't

:28:02.:28:06.

get that without a resolution from the Security Council? I haven't, in

:28:06.:28:09.

fact, called for a humanitarian corridor, I have expressed my

:28:09.:28:15.

concerns that those who are calling for a humanitarian corridor, or a

:28:15.:28:18.

safe zone, do not appreciate that if you are going to call for that,

:28:18.:28:23.

you have to be able to make them secure. I think the most important

:28:23.:28:28.

thing now, given that we have not got a ceasefire, is that we need

:28:28.:28:32.

some kind of humanitarian pause, for those who are affect the by

:28:32.:28:36.

this violence, who are not able to get out, who are caught up, perhaps

:28:37.:28:41.

can't get access to medical supplies, can't get access to food.

:28:41.:28:46.

We need a humanitarian pause. does that mean? It means a top in

:28:46.:28:49.

the fighting. Both side agree to stop the fighting for a period of

:28:49.:28:55.

time, so that, for example, the ICRC, the Syrian Arab Red Crescent

:28:55.:29:00.

and others can go on. We have seen those calls for ceasefire for the

:29:00.:29:03.

last two months, call it a pause or a ceasefire, it clearly doesn't

:29:04.:29:07.

work, we are seeing a country ravaged by civil war now?

:29:07.:29:11.

doesn't mean that you cannot continue to try to hold all sides

:29:11.:29:17.

to account. You have Government, you have an opposition, who have to

:29:17.:29:21.

appreciate and understand that the action that they are taking is

:29:21.:29:27.

having a serious impact on ordinary men, women and children. The bottom

:29:27.:29:29.

line is, without the Security Council, what you are saying now is

:29:30.:29:32.

we can't do it with the Security Council, we have to find ways

:29:32.:29:37.

without them? First of all, a ceasefire was called for in the

:29:37.:29:41.

six-point plan, Kofi Annan's six- point plan, it has not happened. In

:29:41.:29:46.

the absence of a permanent ceasefire, we have to have some

:29:46.:29:49.

kind of humanitarian pause, because of what is happening to ordinary

:29:49.:29:53.

people on the ground. And this is now a long-term problem that needs

:29:53.:29:57.

a long-term solution. How long do you think this will go on for?

:29:57.:30:01.

has been going on for more than a year. We know that these kinds of

:30:01.:30:05.

situations, where you have civil conflict, where you have this kind

:30:05.:30:11.

of internal war, can go on for a very, very long time. What would be

:30:11.:30:13.

your estimate? I don't have an estimate. The dialogue and

:30:13.:30:20.

discussion has to continue. We have to continue to try to get a

:30:20.:30:22.

diplomatic solution. The United Nations was created because we

:30:22.:30:28.

wanted to put a stop to violence and conflict. We have to continue

:30:28.:30:32.

to press the diplomatic channels to try to make them work. Thank you

:30:32.:30:37.

very much. What would it take for the Tories

:30:37.:30:41.

to win a majority at the next election. Could it be the votes of

:30:41.:30:45.

black and ethnic minority voters. At the 2010 general election, only

:30:45.:30:49.

16% voted for the Conservatives, more than two thirds voted Labour.

:30:49.:30:54.

Conservative Party reverge has suggested these -- research has

:30:54.:30:58.

suggested these voters are well represented in target seats, but

:30:59.:31:04.

can they be wonover? We have been trying to find out.

:31:04.:31:12.

This is Sam, he's an MP, a Conservative MP. This is James,

:31:12.:31:17.

he's a champion, and he's not a Tory.

:31:17.:31:22.

Sam thinks James could be a Tory, he just don't know it yet. James

:31:22.:31:26.

disagrees. This is Hackney, and you are trying

:31:26.:31:30.

to change me. We brought the Prime Minister's

:31:30.:31:35.

adviser on ethnic minorities to a boxing ring, no ordinary boxing

:31:35.:31:38.

ring, it is the one Mr and Mrs Cameron visited during the election,

:31:38.:31:41.

and pledged fundraising help. They haven't visited since. It might be

:31:41.:31:47.

a problem. He tricked me. Come on. I'm not

:31:47.:31:54.

having any of you guys tricking me again. Sam Gyimah turned up here,

:31:54.:31:57.

and before Newsnight knew it, he was in borrowed kit, it was meant

:31:57.:32:02.

to be a fact-finding mission, not a punch-up, but Gyimahh was quickly

:32:02.:32:07.

presented with the problem, for many their vote is an historical

:32:07.:32:11.

allegiance. Coming to London, the first thing my mum said, is vote

:32:11.:32:19.

Labour. Now I have a Conservative in front of me. How can we get you

:32:19.:32:24.

to vote Conservative? In 2010 the Prime Minister and his

:32:24.:32:28.

wife visited this boxing club. But in that election the Tories didn't

:32:28.:32:32.

win this seat, in fact, the Labour candidate got four-times the number

:32:32.:32:35.

of votes. The worry for the Conservatives is that is replicated

:32:35.:32:40.

in seats across inner cities in the UK. This is a two-fold problem, it

:32:40.:32:44.

is a problem if the conditions want to win in the general election, it

:32:44.:32:47.

is also another problem f they want to represent the UK, they need to

:32:47.:32:53.

learn to win in places like this. So concerned were they, the

:32:53.:32:57.

Conservative's former Deputy Chairman, Lord Ashcroft, conducted

:32:57.:33:05.

a 12,000-strong poll. He created broad catagories from the census

:33:05.:33:15.
:33:15.:33:44.

We have got to pay down the country's debts and reduce the

:33:44.:33:47.

deficit. What we are looking to do is find ways of supporting

:33:47.:33:50.

organisations like this. But it may not come from the Government. As it

:33:50.:33:55.

has in the past. As I said to you...Gyimah Believes that on

:33:55.:33:58.

thrift, education standards, family values, a number of things, his

:33:58.:34:01.

party is the natural party for minorities. The Conservatives just

:34:01.:34:06.

need to sell their wares better. You said earlier, my mum said

:34:06.:34:10.

always vote Labour? What I'm saying, his argument is good, his argument

:34:10.:34:15.

is positive. I like his argument. You know. You are just saying that

:34:15.:34:19.

because he's here in front of me? like his argument, it is up to him.

:34:19.:34:25.

He is the one who brings the arguments. Gyimah is swapping notes

:34:25.:34:29.

with Simon, a British Indian who stood for the Conservatives in this

:34:29.:34:34.

seat the last election. I used to call it my tale of two cities, the

:34:34.:34:37.

southern part of the seats is filled with wine bar, it is close

:34:37.:34:41.

to the city, the northern part of the city is filled with a terrible

:34:41.:34:44.

degree of deprivation. It will almost certainly become a

:34:44.:34:48.

Conservative seat within 25-30 years, possibly sooner. I think the

:34:49.:34:53.

real thing here is connecting with our value. And there are two aspect

:34:53.:34:57.

of that, Conservatives need to make it very clear to people in places

:34:57.:35:02.

like this, what our values are. We also need to get people to

:35:02.:35:05.

recognise that the Conservative Party is not the same old

:35:05.:35:11.

Conservative Party, in other words, modern Britain has got to identify

:35:11.:35:15.

what the Conservative Party is, and that had ath has changed.

:35:15.:35:21.

Up to Birmingham, and a church service to celebrate 50 years of

:35:21.:35:27.

the Jamaican diaspora. Gyimah meets British Joe Aldery, someone who

:35:27.:35:31.

devotes himself to further political engagment. Historically

:35:31.:35:35.

it has been that the British Conservative Party is some what

:35:35.:35:37.

hostile towards black people. That comes through in their immigration

:35:37.:35:41.

policies, it comes through in statements made famous by the like

:35:41.:35:48.

of Enoch Powell. It comes through ...That Is a long time ago? That is

:35:48.:35:50.

the history. That is where it is coming from, people have long

:35:50.:35:54.

memories. A lot of our values are similar. I have been looking at

:35:54.:35:57.

some of the stuff you have been saying around family, parenting,

:35:57.:36:02.

the sense that you can't really outsource parent to go the state.

:36:02.:36:06.

Training a child starts at home, if we want to deal with some of the

:36:06.:36:10.

challenges we have, anti-social behaviour, young people, you know,

:36:10.:36:13.

and moulding them to be the adults we want them to be, all that starts

:36:13.:36:18.

in the home. I would have thought that's pretty Conservative in

:36:18.:36:21.

outlook. You wouldn't necessarily align those values with the modern,

:36:21.:36:25.

present-day Conservative Party, any more than any other party. Would

:36:25.:36:28.

you? I certainly wouldn't, I don't think many of the people within a

:36:28.:36:35.

church like this would. Why not? you look at some of the policies

:36:35.:36:38.

the Conservative Party is now pursuing, around gay marriage, for

:36:38.:36:43.

example, which many people within a church like this would see as not

:36:43.:36:49.

something that is traditionally Tory. Sam, Joe just said he didn't

:36:49.:36:54.

like Cameron's speech about multiculturalism being dead? That

:36:54.:36:58.

specific speech was made at the Munich security conference against

:36:58.:37:01.

a different backdrop. There is a sense that people have to integrate

:37:01.:37:05.

into this country, and the sense of having lots of different cultures

:37:05.:37:12.

that don't integrate isn't right. We probably share that view. A lot

:37:12.:37:16.

of people received that speech about multiculturalism being dead,

:37:16.:37:23.

as a signal of a return to a monocultural Britain. Where

:37:23.:37:29.

minorities must buy into mainstream, lose their distinctiveness.

:37:29.:37:37.

They also didn't like a tweet sent by a Tory MP that the Olympic

:37:37.:37:43.

Opening Ceremony was multicultural crap. The preacher here calls for a

:37:43.:37:49.

bail out for Jamaica. Language not far from Gyimah's party, but in a

:37:49.:37:54.

secular setting. But the barriers remain. Pollsters reveal that one

:37:54.:37:57.

of the specific reason someone weent vote Conservative, is if they

:37:57.:38:01.

are not white. This is one of the reasons why the Conservatives can't

:38:01.:38:08.

form a Government on their own. Lots to discuss there. Sam Gyimah

:38:08.:38:12.

who advises David Cameron on cultural issues. And Sadiq Khan,

:38:12.:38:17.

welcome to you both. Sam let's take you back to the boxing ring, you

:38:17.:38:21.

saw the action of James's glove, he would love to hit a story. That

:38:21.:38:26.

shows us, I think, the scale of the challenge that you face, doesn't

:38:26.:38:33.

it? Yes. It is a big challenge. As bishop Aldery says, memories are

:38:33.:38:40.

long. There are people with deep memories of where the Conservative

:38:40.:38:45.

Party was circa 197 -- 1970, what we need to recognise is the

:38:45.:38:47.

Conservative Party today is different to the Conservative Party

:38:47.:38:50.

of 1970, firstly, so modern Britain needs to recognise that. The

:38:50.:38:56.

Conservative Party needs to make it very clear what the values are. To

:38:56.:39:00.

be able to forge a connection with modern Britain. Certainly what is

:39:00.:39:04.

not the case, which is the assumption of a lot of people, is

:39:04.:39:08.

that some how it is a white, rural party that cannot connect with

:39:08.:39:16.

Britain. A lot of our values. We have been celebrating this week the

:39:16.:39:21.

genius, the creative genius of Danny Boyle. If we look at his life

:39:21.:39:27.

story, not an immigrant story, but not dissimilar, northern class

:39:27.:39:33.

family. Some of us have been celebrating Sadiq Khan's Opening

:39:33.:39:36.

Ceremony, others clearly haven't from your party. What you said,

:39:36.:39:40.

nobody can disagree with, you evidenced your values by your

:39:40.:39:46.

policies. If you look at the last two-and-a-half years, your policies,

:39:46.:39:49.

cutting education maintenance allowance, closing Sure Start,

:39:49.:39:56.

having policies that discriminate proportionally against women a

:39:56.:40:00.

disproportionate of black and ethnic minorities work in the

:40:00.:40:05.

public sector and use its services, the Government has had a

:40:05.:40:08.

disproportionate affect on them. It is OK going to visit these people,

:40:08.:40:11.

but evidence your values by your policies. The number of times I

:40:12.:40:15.

have been in debated with Labour MPs, who proudly say to me, I

:40:15.:40:19.

represent one of the poorest parts of Britain, which has lots of black

:40:19.:40:24.

and ethnic minority people in it. I have to say you were in power for

:40:24.:40:28.

13 years, what happened to those communities when you were in power.

:40:28.:40:32.

That measure, which is about the kind of policies you are

:40:32.:40:37.

introducing, disproportionately affecting the voters you are trying

:40:37.:40:40.

to target? Most ethnic minorities, my parents are immigrant, I have

:40:40.:40:44.

brought up by a single mother, and they would say to you, one of the

:40:44.:40:48.

things they want most for their children is to have a better life

:40:48.:40:57.

than themselves. There is nothing Moraitis important in that context,.

:40:57.:41:00.

You can make people feel good when there is a lot of money to spend

:41:00.:41:04.

around. There isn't. Do you accept the Labour Party also has a problem

:41:04.:41:07.

with complacency, this is something that can be levelled very easily at

:41:07.:41:12.

you? Yes. What are you doing about that? We mustn't be complacent.

:41:12.:41:15.

gave you that line, what are you doing? We mustn't take it for

:41:15.:41:19.

granted that the black and Asian minority vote will come walking to

:41:19.:41:24.

us. It is walk ago I way from you? If you look at George Galloway and

:41:24.:41:27.

Bradford West and how surprised your leader was about that by-

:41:27.:41:33.

election. It was the kick up the back side we needed. We will make

:41:33.:41:37.

sure our party rep the parties and country. We were in Government for

:41:37.:41:43.

13 years, what we sought to do was to provide more ladders for people

:41:43.:41:49.

like Sam's family and mine to prosper. Giving young people good

:41:49.:41:53.

nursery facilities, Sure Start was very important. Iain Duncan Smith

:41:53.:41:57.

thought so, you are closing them down. The Education Maintenance

:41:57.:42:01.

Allowance, keeping people in my constituency, maybe not Sam's, in

:42:01.:42:05.

further education. What your party did before Tony Blair won in 1997,

:42:05.:42:08.

was to pose as someone with Conservative values. The moment

:42:08.:42:12.

they got into power they levelled down rather than up. We have grant-

:42:12.:42:17.

maintained schools. You don't believe that. If we are looking,

:42:17.:42:23.

amongst the diverse communities, at a tranche of religious, religious

:42:23.:42:27.

African, small business owners, who might be Asian. This is very

:42:27.:42:32.

clearly an area where you ought to be appealing to people in your

:42:32.:42:36.

traditional Conservative value, yet your liberal value, things like gay

:42:36.:42:39.

marriage, is a real turn off to a lot of these communities? I think

:42:39.:42:44.

it shouldn't be. One of the things. But it is? One of the clips that

:42:44.:42:47.

wasn't shown in the conversation with Bishop Aldery, is all ethnic

:42:47.:42:51.

minorities have to understand, whatever their religious persuasion,

:42:51.:42:55.

if we want toll reasons and inclusion, you can't say on the one

:42:55.:43:00.

hand, tolerate and include you, but don't tolerate people who are not

:43:00.:43:04.

like us, it cut both ways. It is more important to stick to the

:43:04.:43:07.

policy sis, even if it means isolating the people you wanton

:43:07.:43:12.

board? It is about communicating the policies veryle W one of the

:43:12.:43:15.

policies we don't shout about, our development work. When the

:43:15.:43:20.

Pakistani floods happened, it was British tax-payers. Don't patronise

:43:20.:43:25.

the voters. It is not an b aesthetics. It really isn't -- it

:43:25.:43:32.

is not about as this theics. say our poll -- Aesthetics. You say

:43:32.:43:36.

our policies are alienating people, this is a policy that is supportive

:43:36.:43:40.

of the communities. By you replicating Labour's policy on

:43:40.:43:44.

development is not going to win voters, nor will aesthetics and PR.

:43:44.:43:49.

You have to look at your policies and your party, and ask why is it

:43:49.:43:53.

in 2010, after 13 years of Labour failure, ethnic minorities still

:43:53.:43:59.

reason away from the Conservative Party. I think ethnic minorities

:43:59.:44:04.

have to do is put a price on the vote and not assume Labour is their

:44:04.:44:08.

natural home. Whisking you through tomorrow's papers. The financial

:44:08.:44:18.
:44:18.:44:55.

, that's all from Newsnight, we will be here tomorrow night, with

:44:55.:45:00.

all the news fit to broadcast, from you will of as you tonight, good --

:45:00.:45:10.
:45:10.:45:29.

all of us tonight, good night. Good evening, mostly daytime

:45:29.:45:33.

showers are easing to leave a dryer night, a dryer start to Friday,

:45:33.:45:36.

showers will get going quickly. Some close to southern coastal

:45:36.:45:41.

counties, and more prolonged showery rain towards the west,

:45:41.:45:45.

working wards and eastwards through the day. Some heavy and thundery,

:45:45.:45:48.

better breaks between the showers across part of central and eastern

:45:48.:45:51.

England, some staying dry. The south-east corner and parts of East

:45:51.:45:54.

Anglia, most likely to see the showers between the morning and

:45:54.:45:58.

early afternoon, in the sunshine, temperatures up to 22 degrees.

:45:58.:46:02.

Expect showers on and off throughout, across the south west

:46:02.:46:06.

of England, merging to longer spells of rain in Wales. Heavy rain

:46:06.:46:09.

wherever you are, gusty around the showers. The wettest spell of

:46:09.:46:11.

weather through Northern Ireland will be through the morning.

:46:11.:46:14.

Brighter into the afternoon. A cluster of showers around, some of

:46:14.:46:18.

those again could be on the thundery side, and the wetter side

:46:18.:46:22.

will be spreading into Scotland. The re- of Scotland, brightening up

:46:22.:46:26.

a touch, a reasonable day, just a few showers to speak of. From

:46:26.:46:29.

Friday into Saturday, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and northern

:46:29.:46:32.

England, the showers will be back and they will be a bit more

:46:32.:46:36.

plentiful supply, as there will be across many parts of England and

:46:36.:46:39.

Wales. Low pressure will take dominance across the UK this

:46:39.:46:42.

weekend, expect showers just about wherever you are, initially across

:46:42.:46:46.

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