Browse content similar to 08/10/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Two-and-a-half years into a Government that promised to sort | :00:12. | :00:19. | |
out the economy and things are not only no better, but in some cases | :00:19. | :00:24. | |
they are much worse. The Chancellor of the Exchequer won't change, he | :00:24. | :00:27. | |
won't even change his slogan. nation working hard together, we | :00:27. | :00:33. | |
are still, all in this together. All these words in his speech and | :00:33. | :00:41. | |
not a single mention of the "g" word, "growth". | :00:41. | :00:45. | |
By Christmas we will know if the Chancellor has met two tests he set | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
for himself to turn around the economy. If he hasn't met them, | :00:49. | :00:52. | |
there will be mitigating circumstances, but he will be | :00:52. | :00:59. | |
weaker. The main event of the day at the Conservative Party | :00:59. | :01:04. | |
Conference, Boris Johnson shows up. If this is the moment life begins, | :01:04. | :01:09. | |
maybe abortion is murder, but if it isn't, what is the date when | :01:09. | :01:14. | |
abortion should become illegal. Campaigners on all sides of the | :01:14. | :01:19. | |
argument are here. Unrest in Iran, as inflation heads | :01:19. | :01:23. | |
sky wards and the economy plunges, is it possible that international | :01:23. | :01:33. | |
:01:33. | :01:35. | ||
sanctions are working. When he appeared at the Olympic Games they | :01:35. | :01:38. | |
booed him. At least that didn't happen to him today, but he was | :01:38. | :01:44. | |
speaking at the gathering of his own political party members. He | :01:44. | :01:47. | |
spent over half an hour reassuring them he knows what he's doing, | :01:47. | :01:51. | |
despite the fact that a Government who promised to sort out the | :01:51. | :01:55. | |
economy is preying over a massive growth in public debt. We are all, | :01:55. | :01:59. | |
apparently, still in this together. Allegra Stratton was there, and she | :01:59. | :02:04. | |
was all ears. The speech was actually quite flat | :02:04. | :02:09. | |
today, five years ago, you have to remember, ago was when George | :02:09. | :02:15. | |
Osborne brought out the inheritance tax policy, and it stalled Gordon | :02:15. | :02:18. | |
Brown's plans for a general election. He got his reputation | :02:18. | :02:26. | |
there for being Houdini as Chancellor and politician, we are | :02:26. | :02:30. | |
asking the question a few years into the Government if he still has | :02:30. | :02:34. | |
that, and the opinion is mixed. You could say on his own tests he has | :02:34. | :02:40. | |
failed. Two tests set at the beginning, he would eliminate the | :02:40. | :02:43. | |
structural deficit by 2015 he has delayed that by two years. And the | :02:44. | :02:48. | |
other thing is debt as a proportion of GDP would be falling. Again, it | :02:48. | :02:53. | |
looks like, we are not certain, that will also not be met. The | :02:53. | :02:56. | |
problem for George Osborne is not now, but in a few weeks time we | :02:56. | :02:59. | |
will know that for certain. Therefore, he has to face the | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
prospect of two of those targets not being met. All of the above is | :03:03. | :03:07. | |
failure, I do think it is a mark of the man that he has given himself | :03:07. | :03:10. | |
the political space to be able to do that and get away with it. | :03:10. | :03:14. | |
Remember when he announced he was delaying that rolling fiscal | :03:14. | :03:19. | |
deficit reduction target, he got away with that with remarkably few | :03:19. | :03:23. | |
scars. I think, firstly, the Labour Party is likely to accept at the | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
next election that they agree with coalition spending plans. You have | :03:27. | :03:31. | |
to, he has failed, on his own terms, but he has given himself the space | :03:31. | :03:36. | |
to create new terms. It is politically clever, the economics | :03:36. | :03:41. | |
not so good. Did he restore any political | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
reputation today? No, today was a flat speech, a few policies in it. | :03:45. | :03:49. | |
Very interesting for people like me. In terms of the mega-headlines, | :03:49. | :03:54. | |
they didn't cut it, and didn't do enough, apart from a few clap lines | :03:54. | :03:58. | |
on welfare. People here really like that, they like the �10 billion. | :03:58. | :04:01. | |
Apart from that he didn't do enough. The main event for the Chancellor | :04:01. | :04:05. | |
is in a few weeks time, when the Office for Budget Responsibility | :04:05. | :04:11. | |
pronounce whether he makes that next cut. | :04:11. | :04:15. | |
Thank you. The promise coming into Government of a return to growth | :04:15. | :04:19. | |
has, so far, proven a miserable prediction. Despite this, the | :04:19. | :04:22. | |
Chancellor still wanted to sound optimistic today. But does he | :04:23. | :04:32. | |
:04:33. | :04:33. | ||
deserve to be? We have been looking at his record, and outlook. | :04:33. | :04:37. | |
Around Westminster and Whitehall, at least on paper, the Chancellor | :04:37. | :04:44. | |
is known by his initials, you suspect he rather likes this H it | :04:44. | :04:49. | |
suggests action, positivity and progress. Unfortunately, the | :04:49. | :04:54. | |
economy hasn't been nearly so dynamic, economic growth isn't so | :04:54. | :05:01. | |
much as G-O, as G-O-N-E. The Chancellor's job today in speech | :05:01. | :05:06. | |
was to explain why the recovery was so much harder than he predicted, | :05:06. | :05:09. | |
and to convince voters he still knows what to do. The truth is s | :05:09. | :05:13. | |
that the damage done by the debts and the banking crisis was worse | :05:13. | :05:18. | |
than we feared. The rise in the world oil price has been larger | :05:18. | :05:23. | |
than anyone forecast. Sadly, the predictions that you made, that I | :05:23. | :05:28. | |
made, that almost everyone here made, about the euro, turned out to | :05:28. | :05:34. | |
be all too true. This makes the job more difficult. But it doesn't make | :05:34. | :05:41. | |
it any less urgent. We all know we have economic problems, the | :05:41. | :05:45. | |
Chancellor today, like Ed Miliband last week, was trying to define | :05:45. | :05:49. | |
exactly what the big problem is, and therefore, what we need to do | :05:49. | :05:54. | |
about it. Labour see the big issue as growth. Therefore, we need to | :05:54. | :05:59. | |
stop austerity, or at least slow it down a bit, until growth returns. | :05:59. | :06:04. | |
George Osborne, on the Conservatives on the othered hand, | :06:04. | :06:07. | |
wants to show the big problem we face is too much borrowing, | :06:07. | :06:12. | |
therefore, the last thing we should be doing, they say, is reining back | :06:12. | :06:16. | |
on austerity. We need to keep going, with deficit reduction. Because the | :06:16. | :06:19. | |
Government has missed its deficit reduction targets, it is having to | :06:19. | :06:25. | |
outline new cuts and tax rises going into the next parliament. �16 | :06:25. | :06:32. | |
billion worth in total, �10 billion to come from welfare cuts. For, the | :06:32. | :06:35. | |
Chancellor said, a very simple reason. How can we justify the | :06:35. | :06:39. | |
incomes of those out of work, rising faster than the incomes of | :06:39. | :06:43. | |
those in work. How can we justify giving flats to young people who | :06:43. | :06:48. | |
have never worked, when working people twice their age, are still | :06:48. | :06:53. | |
living with their parents because they can't afford their first home. | :06:54. | :06:57. | |
APPLAUSE About �3.2 billion of the new | :06:57. | :07:00. | |
deficit reduction will come from tax rises, but where from? One | :07:01. | :07:05. | |
place they are not going to come from, said the Chancellor, is from | :07:05. | :07:07. | |
the Liberal Democrats' preferred mansion tax on properties worth | :07:07. | :07:12. | |
more than �2 million. It would be sold as a mansion tax, but once the | :07:12. | :07:18. | |
tax inspector has his foot in the door, you would soon find most of | :07:18. | :07:22. | |
the homes in the country labelled a mansion. Homes people have worked | :07:22. | :07:27. | |
hard to afford and already paid taxes on. It is not a mansion tax, | :07:27. | :07:32. | |
it is a homes' tax, this party of homeownership will have no truck | :07:32. | :07:36. | |
with it. The leaflet the Conservatives were | :07:36. | :07:40. | |
giving out today claimed the coalition had already reduced the | :07:40. | :07:45. | |
deficit by 25%. The Chancellor even said so in his speech. The deficit | :07:45. | :07:52. | |
is down by a quarter. In fact, he said it twice. Yes, we have cut the | :07:52. | :07:58. | |
budget deficit, by a quarter. only way to get to a figure of near | :07:58. | :08:02. | |
25%, is to stop counting at the end of the last financial year. Because, | :08:03. | :08:07. | |
since then, the public finances have deteriorated sharply. If you | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
include this period in a rolling 12-month total, well the reduction | :08:11. | :08:15. | |
is only something like 18%. Even this might be overgenerous to the | :08:15. | :08:19. | |
Chancellor. If you change the way of counting the deficit to the one | :08:19. | :08:24. | |
preferred by many economists and used by the Office for National | :08:24. | :08:27. | |
Statistics. It is called the current budget balance, and it | :08:27. | :08:33. | |
ignores capital spending. On this measure the deficit peaked at �110 | :08:33. | :08:39. | |
billion in 2009/10, it dropped to �59 billion lasty, but on a holeing | :08:39. | :08:45. | |
12-month total it is up to �108 billion. A reduction not so much of | :08:45. | :08:50. | |
25%, how does 2% sound? Whichever way you slice it, there are big | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
questions for the Chancellor. this December in his Autumn | :08:54. | :08:57. | |
Statement, it looks like the independent Office for Budget | :08:57. | :09:01. | |
Responsibility, will tell him at least one of his fiscal rules won't | :09:01. | :09:05. | |
be met. We didn't hearing anything today about how he will respond to. | :09:05. | :09:08. | |
That one of the biggest questions for him, and one of the most | :09:08. | :09:10. | |
interesting issues for the economy and the public finances, will be | :09:10. | :09:15. | |
now will he respond in December, when the OBR tell him, actually, on | :09:15. | :09:20. | |
your current plans you are not going to meet the rules you have | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
set yourself. There is more bad news for GO | :09:24. | :09:27. | |
tonight, as he heads for a meeting of European finance ministers | :09:27. | :09:33. | |
tomorrow, in the last few minutes the IMF have published updated | :09:33. | :09:36. | |
growth forecast, with the UK growth prospects sharply devised downwards | :09:37. | :09:43. | |
for this year and next. To discuss his boss's performance, | :09:43. | :09:46. | |
the Treasury Minister David Gauke joins us from Birmingham. David | :09:46. | :09:50. | |
Gauke, you promised when you came into power you would sort out the | :09:50. | :09:54. | |
economy, instead of which you are borrowing more thanth year than | :09:54. | :09:58. | |
last year, growth forecasts are downgraded tomorrow, and we are | :09:58. | :10:03. | |
back in recession. Shouldn't he have apoll goised today? Well, -- | :10:03. | :10:06. | |
Apologised today? Well, no, the situation is clearly difficult for | :10:06. | :10:11. | |
the economy in the UK, as it is in pretty well other developed economy. | :10:11. | :10:15. | |
The fact is, that the eurozone has created great uncertainty t the | :10:15. | :10:24. | |
damage done to the economy in 2007/8, by the financial cry sits, | :10:25. | :10:30. | |
was more severen -- crisis, was more severe than anyone had thought. | :10:30. | :10:34. | |
Add into that commodity prices have been high, that has made growth | :10:34. | :10:38. | |
much more difficult. That is the essence of the problems we have | :10:38. | :10:41. | |
faced. But this is a Government that is determined to address those | :10:41. | :10:45. | |
problems, and make us more competitive and get growth in the | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
economy. It doesn't sound like a Government that is determined to | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
control things, he sounds like a passenger at the back of the bus? | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
No. Clearly there are international factors, and, you know, Government | :10:57. | :11:01. | |
has to deal with those. We are not powerless in the face of some of | :11:01. | :11:05. | |
those international pressures. Clearly it is more difficult in | :11:05. | :11:10. | |
terms of getting growth in an economy, when we're seeing many | :11:10. | :11:14. | |
other economies in difficulty. The eurozone is clearly a major crisis | :11:14. | :11:19. | |
that we have to deal with. We are doing everything we can to get | :11:19. | :11:23. | |
growth, that is why we have measures on planning, on employment, | :11:23. | :11:27. | |
that is why we are concentrating on getting more infrastructure | :11:27. | :11:34. | |
spending. That is why we're taking steps to get funding for businesses. | :11:34. | :11:38. | |
There are difficult circumstances. We accept that, but it doesn't mean | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
we should abandon our attempts to get control of the public finances. | :11:42. | :11:45. | |
That would be extremely reckless thing to do. He seems to think some | :11:45. | :11:52. | |
of it is our fault. He said today there was a need for people to be | :11:52. | :11:56. | |
working hard, as if we are not. How many people in this country are not | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
working hard? I think the point he was making is a much bigger | :12:00. | :12:06. | |
challenge for countries like the UK, indeed all mature western | :12:06. | :12:11. | |
democracies. At a time when there is greater competition, when other | :12:11. | :12:15. | |
economies are rising, that creates great opportunities, new markets | :12:15. | :12:21. | |
for us to exploit. But if we sit back, if we are complacent, and we | :12:21. | :12:24. | |
don't respond to the challenges, the future for countries that do | :12:24. | :12:28. | |
that, is not particularly a happy one. That is why you have to take | :12:28. | :12:34. | |
some of the, quite tough decision, to ensure we get growth in the | :12:34. | :12:39. | |
long-term. It sounds to me that the person who ought to be working | :12:39. | :12:44. | |
harder is George Osborne? We're all working very hard in terms of | :12:44. | :12:48. | |
delivering policies that will make us more competitive, putting us in | :12:48. | :12:53. | |
a position for stronger growth in future years. That is a big | :12:53. | :12:58. | |
challenge we all have to face up to. That is why we're bringing forward | :12:58. | :13:02. | |
proposals that may be tough and difficult, like welfare reform, | :13:02. | :13:06. | |
that is why we are more demanding of our education system, and want | :13:06. | :13:10. | |
to put standards up higher. That is why we have to have a competitive | :13:10. | :13:13. | |
tax system. All those things are really important, that is what the | :13:13. | :13:18. | |
Government is focusing on. couldn't even stick to a line on | :13:18. | :13:24. | |
tax on Cornish pastties and caravans, could he? -- pasties and | :13:24. | :13:28. | |
caravans, could he? These are measures we listened to what people | :13:28. | :13:33. | |
had to say and changed policies. It is hardly fundamental to the | :13:33. | :13:37. | |
position of this Government, in terms of bringing through some big | :13:37. | :13:42. | |
spending cuts, getting control of the deficit at a very difficult | :13:42. | :13:48. | |
time, and ensuring that we have credibility. We have goat | :13:48. | :13:50. | |
credibility, that is why the markets allow us to have interest | :13:50. | :13:54. | |
rates as low as they are, and we are determined to stuck to that | :13:54. | :13:59. | |
course. There are Governments who in these circumstances would give | :13:59. | :14:03. | |
up and walk away and abandon that hard-won credibility. That is not | :14:03. | :14:07. | |
what we are going to do, that is not what George Osborne is B we are | :14:07. | :14:11. | |
determined to ensure that we succeed -- is about, we are | :14:11. | :14:15. | |
determined to ensure we succeed and press on. Your Government says | :14:15. | :14:19. | |
there is about �16 billion of cuts to come, you have also said the | :14:19. | :14:23. | |
cuts will be divided between cuts in public spending and rises in | :14:23. | :14:30. | |
taxation, about a ratio of 80%-20%. Correct? That means you have �3.2 | :14:30. | :14:35. | |
billion in extra taxes to raise. How will you do that? Obviously any | :14:35. | :14:42. | |
announcements in terms of taxes will be made at budget or Autumn | :14:42. | :14:45. | |
Statements. I would make the point in every budget so far we have | :14:45. | :14:50. | |
raised more from the wealthiest in measures like capital gains tax, | :14:50. | :14:56. | |
stamp duty, land tax. We have taken measures to deal with avoidance. We | :14:56. | :15:00. | |
have capped reliefs, we are prepared to share the burden around, | :15:00. | :15:07. | |
so those with the broader shoulders share the greatest burden. That | :15:07. | :15:12. | |
80%-20% split has taken over the whole financial period. The | :15:12. | :15:17. | |
important thing is we don't tax ourselves into an uncompetitive | :15:17. | :15:19. | |
position, and most of the academic evidence suggests that most of the | :15:19. | :15:22. | |
focus should be on spending cuts, that is what we are delivering. | :15:22. | :15:27. | |
As you know, your boss is a very unpopular man. When he appeared at | :15:27. | :15:33. | |
the Olympics, people booed him, do you like him? Yes. I have worked | :15:33. | :15:38. | |
for George for five years, he's a very good guy to work for. Why do | :15:38. | :15:43. | |
you like him? Because he's very thoughtful, he's committed to doing | :15:43. | :15:50. | |
what he can for the country. He's very, very bright. He wants to | :15:50. | :15:54. | |
serve the country to the best of his abilities. Actually, at a | :15:54. | :15:59. | |
personal level, someone to work with. He listens, he engages. He's | :15:59. | :16:03. | |
the sort of boss that most people would want, I would say. You think | :16:03. | :16:09. | |
the public will come to love him? think for any politician to hope to | :16:09. | :16:17. | |
be loved, I think, is perhaps a little hopeful, I think he's | :16:17. | :16:21. | |
someone who should be respected. I think he's doing an excellent job | :16:21. | :16:29. | |
as Chancellor. The most excitable crowd at the Tory Party conference | :16:29. | :16:32. | |
was not surrounding the Chancellor or the Prime Minister, but swirling | :16:32. | :16:39. | |
around a man not even in the cabinet. Whatever popularity | :16:39. | :16:43. | |
politicians have, Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London has got it. He | :16:43. | :16:47. | |
says he's there to support the party conference, but he hides his | :16:47. | :16:52. | |
ambition in the same way Eric Pickles could claim to be a hurdler. | :16:52. | :16:56. | |
Boris is the friend without whom life would be a lout easier for | :16:56. | :17:03. | |
David Cameron. The thing about mayor's with blonde hair, one of | :17:03. | :17:09. | |
the country's most famous mayors was famous for an orchid stuffed in | :17:09. | :17:19. | |
his Labour party pel. He made Birmingham go Zong. He overhauled | :17:19. | :17:24. | |
the housing supply and the systems, Birmingham is used to nurturing | :17:24. | :17:31. | |
mayors on to other things. Another one rolls into town in an hour. The | :17:31. | :17:35. | |
Conservative's Prince across the water, today waded into Birmingham. | :17:35. | :17:39. | |
This is as close as I will get to be in the paparazzi, we are waiting | :17:40. | :17:42. | |
to get into Boris Johnson's slip stream, without which we have no | :17:43. | :17:48. | |
chance to get close to him. Down there, cabinet ministers are having | :17:48. | :17:53. | |
cups of tea without being bothered. It used to be the leader's speech | :17:54. | :17:58. | |
that was the big thing, today it is Johnson I don't know who is the | :17:58. | :18:03. | |
belle of the ball. A belle of the ball, featuring in a welcome video, | :18:03. | :18:11. | |
made to warm the crowd up, ahead of the entrance by the real thing. At | :18:11. | :18:15. | |
one point, one could hardly move along the thin corridors in | :18:15. | :18:19. | |
Birmingham, the question for Boris Johnson is how much can he say. You | :18:19. | :18:24. | |
can talk about winning 2012 elections in London, a notoriously | :18:25. | :18:29. | |
hard city for the Tories. But how to win an election in 2015, is too | :18:29. | :18:34. | |
close to the bone for David Cameron. Within moments it was clear he came | :18:34. | :18:38. | |
to praise David Cameron, not to bury him, even a tiny bit. It is | :18:38. | :18:44. | |
sometimes inevitable that a Major of a great -- Mayor of Great city | :18:44. | :18:47. | |
may find himself that are at variance with national policy S of | :18:47. | :18:51. | |
course, I'm stkpwoing to continue to lobby for a long -- going to | :18:51. | :18:57. | |
continue to lobby for a long overdue answer to our capacity | :18:57. | :19:04. | |
problems. But no-one as a result of that should have any cause to doubt | :19:04. | :19:08. | |
my admiration for David Cameron. But an airport is the licensed | :19:08. | :19:14. | |
disagreement. That morning Boris Johnson had writ on how the middle- | :19:14. | :19:18. | |
classes -- written on how the middle-classes were shut out of the | :19:18. | :19:21. | |
housing market. It is close to a denunciation of his party's | :19:21. | :19:25. | |
strategy. There are many thousands of people who are the motor of our | :19:25. | :19:30. | |
economy, who can't afford get the housing they need in London. They | :19:30. | :19:35. | |
are not the people who normally qualify for affordable housing, | :19:35. | :19:44. | |
they are on �34,000-�64,000. By the end the Johnson jingoism was | :19:44. | :19:47. | |
employed in support of the coalition, not against it. If the | :19:47. | :19:51. | |
Government goes the way it is going, sticks to the programme, doesn't | :19:51. | :19:56. | |
get blown off party, remains a one- nation party, plonked squarely in | :19:56. | :19:58. | |
the middle of British politics. Prime Minister's head of | :19:58. | :20:02. | |
communications was watching closely When the economy improves and | :20:02. | :20:09. | |
people feel it, I think that people are look back at the tough, | :20:09. | :20:11. | |
pragmatic, responsible decisions this Government took, and say they | :20:11. | :20:16. | |
were on the right lines. As much as Boris Johnson can be, that was a | :20:16. | :20:21. | |
are strained performance for him. Clever tactic, dampen the | :20:21. | :20:23. | |
expectation, but please the activists, they know, he's still | :20:23. | :20:32. | |
the one they really love. Right now there is no vacancies for Boris, or | :20:32. | :20:35. | |
cadidacy for Boris. But if things don't turn around, the | :20:35. | :20:38. | |
Conservatives may find there is a necessity for Boris Johnson. The | :20:39. | :20:41. | |
Conservative Party party is acidously not discussing something | :20:42. | :20:44. | |
which very large numbers of the general population have strong | :20:44. | :20:49. | |
views on. In that, perhaps, they reflect the general hypocrisy of | :20:49. | :20:54. | |
the British people. The topic is abortion, it was illegal until the | :20:54. | :20:57. | |
1960, the argument isn't about the principle of termination, which | :20:57. | :21:04. | |
most people seem to agree with, but with the date up to which it is | :21:04. | :21:07. | |
legal. The Health Secretary thinks it should be reduced from 24 weeks | :21:07. | :21:12. | |
to 12. When it comes to abortion, they are | :21:12. | :21:16. | |
about Assenor a bunch of politicians as they come. Prime | :21:16. | :21:19. | |
Minister, Women's Minister, Home Secretary, all on record as | :21:19. | :21:24. | |
favouring a reduction in abortion limits from 24-20 weeks. The Health | :21:24. | :21:30. | |
Secretary would go even further, and bring it down to 12. None of | :21:30. | :21:35. | |
these are new views, all four politicians voted to lower the | :21:35. | :21:40. | |
limit, last time parliament debated abortion. What has changed since | :21:40. | :21:44. | |
the 2010 election, of course, is the voting complex of parliament as | :21:44. | :21:48. | |
a whole. It is problem safe to assume, it hasn't become any more | :21:48. | :21:58. | |
:21:58. | :22:00. | ||
hostile to lowering the limit. Babies born before 24 weeks will | :22:00. | :22:05. | |
only survive if they have help with their breathing, if they have | :22:05. | :22:11. | |
intravenous nutrition, and a lot of other very demanding, costly and | :22:11. | :22:14. | |
challenging treatments. Dedicated staff, and an important price of | :22:14. | :22:19. | |
survival is that the baby's suffer a lot for many weeks. In Sweden, | :22:20. | :22:26. | |
the latest evidence shows that a survival of 53% is possible at 23 | :22:26. | :22:32. | |
weeks, and 10% at 22 weeks. But this is only in a country which has | :22:32. | :22:38. | |
probably the best social and medical conditions in the world. | :22:38. | :22:42. | |
The woman who heads one of Britain's leading abortion | :22:42. | :22:45. | |
providers, says people are not getting a clear picture of the | :22:45. | :22:49. | |
latest evidence. Because all sides use it to help make their case of | :22:49. | :22:53. | |
the One small study does not a huge body of evidence make. When I want | :22:53. | :22:59. | |
to know about what's going on, with the survival of severely premature | :22:59. | :23:03. | |
babies. The people I would be asking are the neonatologists, who | :23:03. | :23:08. | |
work in those areas. My understanding at the moment, is a | :23:08. | :23:13. | |
lot of those professionals are concerned that the public has an | :23:13. | :23:16. | |
overly optimistic sense of survival rates. Rather than the other way | :23:16. | :23:26. | |
:23:26. | :23:28. | ||
round. 12 weeks is best known as the time | :23:28. | :23:31. | |
many women have the first scan. It is also the point at which the | :23:31. | :23:36. | |
Health Secretary would like to see abortion limited. The logic of the | :23:36. | :23:43. | |
12-week limit, is because that is the time when the foetus has | :23:43. | :23:49. | |
completed oregano genesis, there is some logic in fixing the | :23:49. | :23:54. | |
termination at that gestation. It is used in Europe-widely, the 12- | :23:54. | :24:01. | |
week limit, for social terminations, in countries such as France they | :24:01. | :24:07. | |
will allow later abortions for severe foetal abnormalities. That | :24:07. | :24:13. | |
is the way we should go, in this country, I think. It is true babies, | :24:13. | :24:17. | |
the vital organs have been formed by 12 week, and the feet tus are | :24:17. | :24:22. | |
able to move around, and -- foetuses, are able to move around | :24:22. | :24:27. | |
and so on. Evidence from neuroscenes does not suggest that | :24:27. | :24:31. | |
the foetus is conscious or able to feel pain at that time. Impressive | :24:31. | :24:38. | |
advances in ultrasound images, particularly the latest 3.D scan, | :24:38. | :24:44. | |
which means we can see more, and opportunities for bonding between | :24:44. | :24:53. | |
parent and child. The vast majority of abortions in the UK take place | :24:53. | :25:01. | |
before 12 weeks, close to 175,000 in 201, 91%. That same year there | :25:01. | :25:08. | |
were 14,000 abortions between 13-19 weeks, and just over 2,500, about | :25:08. | :25:13. | |
1.5%, between 20-24 weeks. Very few women are seeking abortion after 20 | :25:13. | :25:18. | |
weeks of pregnancy. Those that do have got really good reasons for | :25:19. | :25:26. | |
doing it. Sometimes it's that a test has indicated that their baby | :25:26. | :25:30. | |
will be born with a disability that they don't feel they can imagine. | :25:30. | :25:34. | |
Sometimes they didn't realise they were pregnant sometimes they are | :25:34. | :25:37. | |
very young girls concealing the pregnancy from their parents. | :25:37. | :25:41. | |
Sometimes it is women whose periods have stopped, and it never occurred | :25:41. | :25:46. | |
to them that it could be because they were pregnant. I have seen | :25:46. | :25:51. | |
these case his trees, I'm not really convinced by -- histories, | :25:51. | :25:54. | |
I'm not really convinced by most of them, maybe one or two. I don't | :25:54. | :25:58. | |
think we can let the exceptional case drive the whole question of a | :25:58. | :26:03. | |
reduction of the abortion limit for the majority of women who come for | :26:03. | :26:08. | |
termination of pregnancy. For many, focusing on the number of | :26:08. | :26:13. | |
weeks at which to set the abortion limit, misses broader questions | :26:13. | :26:18. | |
that should bring a fresh look to the old debate. While it is clear a | :26:18. | :26:23. | |
12-week limit would get short shrift in parliament, any lowering | :26:23. | :26:29. | |
of the limit down to 22 week, is less easy to call. With us to | :26:29. | :26:35. | |
discuss the issue is Guardian columnist, Zoe Williams, Patricia | :26:35. | :26:44. | |
Lohr, and chief executive of the Christian Medical Fellowship, and | :26:44. | :26:48. | |
campaigner, Kathryn Attwood. To what is a reasonable lowering of | :26:48. | :26:54. | |
the time limit? Of the 16 story Tory members of the cabinet, 13 | :26:54. | :27:04. | |
:27:04. | :27:04. | ||
voted in 2008 for it to come down. To what? 7-20 weeks, 2-16, 3-12, | :27:04. | :27:09. | |
the European average is about 10-12 weeks. What do you think it should | :27:09. | :27:14. | |
come to? I would like to see it come down substantially. To what? | :27:14. | :27:19. | |
I'm opposed to abortion myself. Full stop? It is against the | :27:19. | :27:22. | |
hypocratic oath. We should be moving much more in the direction | :27:22. | :27:27. | |
of Germany, which has a 12-week limit, and an abortion rate 0% of | :27:27. | :27:33. | |
our's. In an ideal world no abortions at all, you are an | :27:33. | :27:37. | |
absolutist? I'm opposed to abortion, personally, myself, yes. I said | :27:38. | :27:45. | |
that most MPs are not, but it is these amazing 4-D ultrasound, and | :27:46. | :27:50. | |
the new information about foetal sentients, and babies surviving | :27:50. | :27:56. | |
below 24 weeks, it is changing the opinions of many. What do you | :27:56. | :28:01. | |
think? If we really want to look at the evidence, the facts are these. | :28:01. | :28:07. | |
Foetal vaiblt has not reduced, even in places where we have viability | :28:07. | :28:11. | |
has no reduced, even in places where we have the most care. There | :28:11. | :28:17. | |
are no adverse health outcomes for the woman, psychological outcomes | :28:17. | :28:22. | |
from the woman. And abortion is far safer than childbirth, even in | :28:22. | :28:26. | |
places, again, with very advanced medical system. I think that this | :28:27. | :28:32. | |
is the evidence. But most importantly, these are not | :28:32. | :28:36. | |
decisions where people are necessarily weighing up scientific | :28:36. | :28:41. | |
evidence. That is very important when people are facing a very | :28:41. | :28:45. | |
premature birth, when there are serious medical health conditions | :28:45. | :28:50. | |
involved, but for most people considering an abortion, it is | :28:50. | :28:54. | |
about whether they are personally ready, whether they are financially | :28:54. | :28:56. | |
stable, whether they are psychologically ready to bear a | :28:56. | :29:01. | |
child or become a parent. Why do you think this has suddenly become | :29:01. | :29:06. | |
topical, then? I know exactly why. It is nothing to do with the time | :29:06. | :29:10. | |
limit on abortion, there is no way Jeremy Hunt will try to bring it | :29:10. | :29:14. | |
down to 12 week, if he did, nobody would vote for it, it would never | :29:14. | :29:19. | |
get past private members' stage. The reason he's doing it, is as | :29:19. | :29:24. | |
Tories member do, throwing a sock to the right of the party, using | :29:24. | :29:29. | |
women's issues as their territory, which is very irritating. I'm very | :29:29. | :29:33. | |
pro-choice, I think your position is slightly illogical, if you are | :29:33. | :29:37. | |
anti-abortion, it doesn't matter when the abortion take place. If | :29:37. | :29:41. | |
your aim is to bring the number I have a borgss down, as you saw, you | :29:41. | :29:47. | |
won't priing -- abortions down, as you saw, it won't bring them down | :29:47. | :29:52. | |
much. You think an upper limit? don't think the streets are full of | :29:52. | :29:57. | |
women trying to abort at a late stage. The logic of your portion is | :29:58. | :30:04. | |
there would be -- portion, is no upper or lower limit. If you lock | :30:04. | :30:07. | |
at countries without any upper limit, like canned dark you don't | :30:07. | :30:12. | |
find people in the third trimester looking for an abortion. You would | :30:12. | :30:18. | |
be in favour of an upper limit? don't think you need a limit. | :30:18. | :30:22. | |
any kind? I genuinely feel you wouldn't find people seeking an | :30:22. | :30:27. | |
abortion at a late stage, no. do you think it is a topical issue, | :30:27. | :30:32. | |
suddenly? I agree that politicians are trying to create some sort of | :30:32. | :30:36. | |
debate. I think it is great there is some sort of debate about the | :30:37. | :30:43. | |
subject. It is important to bring the debate to the surface. What do | :30:43. | :30:49. | |
you think? Agree with Peter, if we are talking about pre-born babies, | :30:49. | :30:52. | |
lives starting with conception, all abortions ends the life. You are | :30:52. | :30:58. | |
against all abortions? If every abortion ends the life of a human | :30:58. | :31:03. | |
being, I disagree with all abortions. We have two | :31:03. | :31:07. | |
diametrically opposed opinions, no sense of a political compromise, | :31:08. | :31:11. | |
morally you take a position, they are diametrically opposed, that | :31:11. | :31:18. | |
life, as you see it, is sacred, and you say choice is sacred? I'm happy | :31:18. | :31:23. | |
to compromise at 24 weeks. That is where we are now. Presumably you | :31:23. | :31:30. | |
were compromising at 28 weeks? Probably, yeah. Adorgs is legal | :31:30. | :31:34. | |
right up to birth of disabled babies in this country. Six out of | :31:34. | :31:39. | |
ten women think the rate should come down. The reason why people | :31:40. | :31:43. | |
are changing their minds has all to do with the humanity of a baby. | :31:43. | :31:49. | |
That is a 12--week-old baby. It is not, it is a model of of a 12-- | :31:49. | :31:55. | |
week-old baby? It is, it is a mottle of a 12--week-old baby, we | :31:55. | :31:59. | |
know from Stuart Campbell's ultrasound, that these babies kick | :31:59. | :32:05. | |
and twist in the womb at this stage. The data about foetal sentients in | :32:05. | :32:11. | |
your early programme, is hot low disputed. There are a lot of | :32:11. | :32:15. | |
neurophysiologyists and nutritionists who feel baby can | :32:15. | :32:21. | |
feel pain and sense touch much earlier. There was a leading piece | :32:21. | :32:26. | |
in a paediatric journal, which called a report from the royal | :32:26. | :32:32. | |
colleges on foetal sentients and then with no clothe. | :32:32. | :32:39. | |
He is misrepresenting the best data. The best data we have on foetal | :32:39. | :32:45. | |
pain is that the neuropathways don't develop completely until 28 | :32:45. | :32:51. | |
weeks. That is hotly disputed. There is not evidence of whether a | :32:51. | :32:56. | |
foetus will experience pain when it is not outside the room, and it is | :32:56. | :33:02. | |
not conscious in utero. The ability to feel pain doesn't mean value as | :33:02. | :33:06. | |
a human being, it is because we are humans. It is not about value as a | :33:06. | :33:10. | |
human being, the argument you are making, every woman who finds | :33:10. | :33:15. | |
herself with a pregnancy that she did not anticipate, goes through | :33:15. | :33:18. | |
the thought process of whether or not she's actually ready to | :33:18. | :33:23. | |
continue that pregnancy, and become a parent. That is where the | :33:23. | :33:29. | |
humanity discussion? She's already a parent if she's pregnant. | :33:29. | :33:35. | |
that becomes an issue. Do you consider yourself a parent as a | :33:35. | :33:39. | |
pregnant woman. I'm in a situation where I'm in a stable relationship, | :33:39. | :33:42. | |
financially stable, I'm psychologically to have a baby, I'm | :33:42. | :33:46. | |
thrilled to have this baby. Whether it is a human life worthy of | :33:46. | :33:51. | |
respect or not, depends on whether you want it or not. Its value is | :33:51. | :33:55. | |
dependant on whether it is wanted, is that what you are saying? | :33:55. | :33:59. | |
point is that people who have children are the same people who | :33:59. | :34:04. | |
have abortions. But their pregnancy at different times in their lives | :34:04. | :34:09. | |
means different things to them. And people are more than capable of | :34:09. | :34:13. | |
thinking about what's most appropriate for a potential child | :34:13. | :34:18. | |
at any point in their lives. child with potential. Those things | :34:18. | :34:22. | |
have very little to do with how much it look like a human being, or | :34:22. | :34:28. | |
whether the organs are formed. would agree with you, I would think | :34:28. | :34:32. | |
whether it seems like a human, doesn't mean it is human or not, it | :34:32. | :34:36. | |
is human by the fact that its both parents are humans. Surely all | :34:36. | :34:40. | |
humans have a certain value no matter how big or old they are. | :34:40. | :34:45. | |
I ask, your position, presumably, is at the point of conception that | :34:45. | :34:51. | |
it becomes a human being. Is that a Christian position? It is a | :34:51. | :34:56. | |
scientific position. You might as well say an egg is a human egg. | :34:56. | :35:03. | |
egg on its own. Everything is pee tension human being. An embryo is | :35:03. | :35:13. | |
:35:13. | :35:14. | ||
an actual human being. I think this is a faith thing. Doctors abided by | :35:14. | :35:23. | |
the hypocratic oath, and the BMA doctors of all faiths and no faith | :35:23. | :35:27. | |
at all. On the basis that a human embryo, a human foetus was actually | :35:27. | :35:33. | |
a human being with potential, rather than a potential human being. | :35:33. | :35:38. | |
Do you mean to say the BMA opposed abortion? I'm saying the BMA in | :35:38. | :35:42. | |
1947 called abortion the greatest crime, the BMA, they did. | :35:43. | :35:49. | |
Jo you will find things have moved on a bit since then. Clearly the | :35:49. | :35:53. | |
medical profession has moved from rational to irrational positions | :35:53. | :35:57. | |
through time. The latest worry story about Iran is the Islamic | :35:57. | :36:02. | |
Republic could have produced enough weapons-grade uranium to arm a | :36:02. | :36:08. | |
nuclear bomb within four months, but it would take longer to make a | :36:08. | :36:12. | |
warhead. The die hards in Israel say they will do what they have to | :36:12. | :36:18. | |
to protect themselves. In Iran there are increasing signs that the | :36:18. | :36:21. | |
economic sanctions on Iran are taking effect, there are shortages | :36:21. | :36:26. | |
of everything inside. Autumn is bringing a bitter harvest | :36:26. | :36:29. | |
to the streets of Tehran and other Iranian cities. | :36:30. | :36:38. | |
Prices are rocketing. Many food stuffs by between 40-60% in four | :36:38. | :36:43. | |
months. And diesel fuel, following the removal of Government subsidies, | :36:43. | :36:50. | |
has quadrupled in price. People are reporting to newspaper, to TV | :36:50. | :36:55. | |
programmes inside, that they have stopped purchasing meat. They have | :36:55. | :37:00. | |
dropped daily products from their weekly consumption and purchase. | :37:00. | :37:04. | |
As a result of this crisis, Iranians are coming to terms with | :37:05. | :37:10. | |
poverty, unrest, and growing polarisation in the country. While | :37:10. | :37:15. | |
hardliners blame foreign plots, and reformers call for change, | :37:16. | :37:21. | |
President Ahmadinejad's hold on power is starting to appear tenuous. | :37:21. | :37:26. | |
Iran is under severe economic pressure at the moment. The | :37:26. | :37:30. | |
currency has fallen by 40% in the last year alone, and 75% in the | :37:30. | :37:34. | |
last year. It is a serious crisis for the Government, and people are | :37:34. | :37:37. | |
suffering as a result. Whatever hardship the Government's economic | :37:37. | :37:40. | |
policies may have caused, there is growing evidence that foreign | :37:41. | :37:46. | |
sanctions are adding to the crisis. Dramatically so, according to one | :37:46. | :37:52. | |
student in Tehran we contacted tonight. I think madness about this | :37:52. | :37:59. | |
atomic programme has brought us to our knees. Especially sanctions. | :37:59. | :38:05. | |
With each new sanction the price of the dollar rises in the bazzars of | :38:05. | :38:11. | |
Tehran. I think people see it as a political problem. And, it is a new | :38:11. | :38:15. | |
oil boycott that seems to be having the biggest effect. | :38:15. | :38:20. | |
The export of oil in Iran has fallen to below 800,000 barrels a | :38:20. | :38:25. | |
day. Just four months ago it was more than 1.5 million. In that | :38:25. | :38:29. | |
context, sanctions have been quite effective. And the impact is | :38:29. | :38:36. | |
beginning to show theself in terms of reduced availability of foreign | :38:36. | :38:40. | |
currencies in open markets. And the ability of importers to continue | :38:40. | :38:45. | |
financing their purchases. international squeeze began in | :38:45. | :38:50. | |
ernest with UN sanctions imposed in 2010, on banks, shipping companies, | :38:50. | :38:54. | |
and other businesses tied to the Revolutionary Guards. The banking | :38:54. | :38:59. | |
sector was hit again earlier this year, when the US froze broad | :38:59. | :39:04. | |
catagories of Iranian Government funds, and the EU shut several | :39:04. | :39:06. | |
Iranian banks out of the international banking transaction | :39:07. | :39:12. | |
system. In July, the EU oil embargo came into effect. That, combined | :39:12. | :39:17. | |
with US pressure on other countries, is already thought to have cut | :39:17. | :39:24. | |
Iran's oil revenues by 40%. More pain is on its way for Iran's | :39:24. | :39:29. | |
leader, the EU is about to extend its oil embargo to Iranian national | :39:29. | :39:34. | |
gas. The country's foreign currency reserves are being whittled away, | :39:34. | :39:38. | |
in part, supporting the Syrian Government. That's estimated to | :39:38. | :39:43. | |
have cost Iran $10 billion already. And President Obama is under | :39:43. | :39:48. | |
pressure, from his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, to take a | :39:48. | :39:54. | |
tougher line still with Iran. I put the leaders of Iran on notice, | :39:54. | :39:58. | |
that the United States and our friends and allies, will prevent | :39:58. | :40:02. | |
them from acquiring nuclear weapons capability. I will not hesitate to | :40:02. | :40:05. | |
impose new sanctions on Iran, and will tighten the sanctions we | :40:05. | :40:13. | |
currently have. What many now wonder is whether | :40:13. | :40:16. | |
sanctions and economic crisis may achieve what years of diplomacy and | :40:16. | :40:21. | |
the threat of military action, have failed to do. The suspension of | :40:21. | :40:27. | |
Iran's nuclear fuel enrichment programme. From about the end of | :40:27. | :40:34. | |
2009 until April 2012 thisy, Iran barely met with the P56789 plus 1 | :40:34. | :40:38. | |
that is the four Security Council powers, since April they have met | :40:38. | :40:42. | |
three times, in Istanbul and Moscow. They have returned to the table. | :40:42. | :40:45. | |
Sanctions have played a very big part in bringing them back to the | :40:45. | :40:50. | |
table. But the regime and the supporters in the security | :40:50. | :40:54. | |
apparatus still breathe defiance, recently they have threatened to | :40:54. | :40:58. | |
banish the UN from nuclear site. They may still eat their words, and | :40:58. | :41:02. | |
it might just be that sanctions cause that. | :41:02. | :41:09. | |
For this long stand-off, has certainly entered a you in phase. | :41:09. | :41:14. | |
We have with ous a Tehran-based journalist working for the Iran | :41:14. | :41:24. | |
:41:24. | :41:25. | ||
state TV news networking and we're joined by Clifford May, from a | :41:25. | :41:30. | |
Conservative think-tank. Do you this -- think this shows sanctions | :41:30. | :41:34. | |
are working? It shows it is having an impact on economy. For them to | :41:34. | :41:38. | |
work you would want two things to happen, the Supreme Leader would | :41:38. | :41:43. | |
have to decide that it is not worth it to have nuclear weapons f it | :41:43. | :41:48. | |
means his economy and the -- if it means his economy and the people | :41:48. | :41:54. | |
will have to suffer so much. Or the people of Iran would say we can no | :41:54. | :41:58. | |
longer abide these rulers or the regime that doesn't have our | :41:58. | :42:03. | |
interests in their heart, but want to build nuclear weapons and | :42:03. | :42:07. | |
threatening genocide against Israel, we can't take this any more, and | :42:07. | :42:12. | |
you see a replay of 2009, with more support. If the purpose of | :42:12. | :42:17. | |
sanctions is to change the calculus, it hasn't happened yet. What do you | :42:17. | :42:22. | |
think has been the cause of this unrest in Iran? There was an unrest | :42:22. | :42:27. | |
on Wednesday, the fact is, the Government has been monitoring the | :42:27. | :42:34. | |
unofficial money markets, and there were a number of dealers who were | :42:34. | :42:38. | |
short-selling, a bit like Black Wednesday in Britain. Short-selling, | :42:38. | :42:45. | |
nothing to do with sanctions? Sanctions have affected Iran, the | :42:45. | :42:51. | |
price of goods are up 50%, the import of goods are up 150%. They | :42:51. | :42:55. | |
have affected Iran. But have they affected Iran to the point that it | :42:55. | :43:03. | |
should be on the knees? No, it made do with $3 a barrel during the | :43:03. | :43:08. | |
Iran-Iraq War. It won't work that way. The US would be better advised | :43:08. | :43:14. | |
to look at another solution for the Iranian problem. You see no | :43:14. | :43:17. | |
possibility of the sanctions forcing the regime to either | :43:17. | :43:24. | |
abandon its nuclear programme, as was suggested, or for people to say | :43:24. | :43:31. | |
they won't put up the -- with the regime? Well chemical weapons | :43:31. | :43:34. | |
shouldn't have been supplied to Saddam Hussein where it killed | :43:34. | :43:37. | |
millions of martyrs. This is completely irrelevant? They would | :43:37. | :43:43. | |
like their country to progress and proceed further. Also Iran's fossil | :43:43. | :43:50. | |
fuels, rate geem argument, -- regime argument. The regime | :43:50. | :43:55. | |
argument is a person feels finite. A good example of this is Saudi | :43:55. | :44:00. | |
Arabia can't come up with the surplus oil to make it work. | :44:00. | :44:04. | |
are looking sceptical? I think most Americans and people in the west | :44:04. | :44:08. | |
would love to see the Iranians, prosperous, free, living better | :44:08. | :44:13. | |
lives. We think Iranians, probably, are more capable of having a free | :44:13. | :44:17. | |
country and democratic society than perhaps any peoples in the Middle | :44:17. | :44:21. | |
East. Weish wished we could have good co-operation and progress. We | :44:21. | :44:25. | |
can't have that with the current regime. The negotiations have gone | :44:25. | :44:29. | |
nowhere, despite the sanctions we haven't seen a spirit of compromise | :44:29. | :44:35. | |
on the part of the Supreme Leader, or the IRGC. I think the sanctions | :44:35. | :44:41. | |
will have to get a great deal more harsh before the calculus changes. | :44:41. | :44:45. | |
Or before the economy, I'm sorry to say, collapses. There will be a | :44:45. | :44:51. | |
time at which I think there will be no foreign currency resources left | :44:51. | :44:58. | |
in Iran, that can be facilitated. I'm sorry, I find it difficult to | :44:58. | :45:02. | |
believe from a proponent of enhanced interrogation technique, | :45:02. | :45:10. | |
the Iraq War. That is nothing to do with T deal with the analysis? | :45:10. | :45:13. | |
find the goodwill a little hard to believe, and knowing which camp you | :45:13. | :45:17. | |
come from. Meaning you take great pleasure in going into countries | :45:17. | :45:22. | |
and rendering them like you did with Iraq. So let's stop that. Iran | :45:22. | :45:27. | |
will not come to sneeze, I tell this, the fact of the matter is, | :45:27. | :45:32. | |
the oil that oil and gas that you are saying you have placed under | :45:32. | :45:38. | |
sanctions, is continuing to be told. The solution, I was here talking to | :45:38. | :45:42. | |
Nick Burns a while back. The solution with Iran is understanding | :45:42. | :45:47. | |
Iran. I know hardliners, such as yourself, who present a friend low | :45:47. | :45:51. | |
face towards us u the fact of the matter is you have tried every | :45:51. | :45:55. | |
which way the last 30 years and gotten nowhere. You have to | :45:55. | :45:58. | |
reconsider your position, because pretence won't pay off with | :45:58. | :46:04. | |
Iranians. The fact of the matter is, while I | :46:04. | :46:08. | |
feel friendly towards the Iranian people, and wish I could visit. The | :46:08. | :46:12. | |
Iranian regime in power for 30 years has been a terrible failure, | :46:12. | :46:17. | |
the people of Iran are less free than even under the Shah. They are | :46:17. | :46:21. | |
less prosperous than under the Shah. Iran is the leading sponsor of | :46:21. | :46:27. | |
terrorism in the world, it is trying to develop nuclear weapons | :46:27. | :46:34. | |
while oppressing its own people. Not since the 2009 up rising | :46:34. | :46:38. |