08/10/2012 Newsnight


08/10/2012

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Two-and-a-half years into a Government that promised to sort

:00:12.:00:19.

out the economy and things are not only no better, but in some cases

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they are much worse. The Chancellor of the Exchequer won't change, he

:00:24.:00:27.

won't even change his slogan. nation working hard together, we

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are still, all in this together. All these words in his speech and

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not a single mention of the "g" word, "growth".

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By Christmas we will know if the Chancellor has met two tests he set

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for himself to turn around the economy. If he hasn't met them,

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there will be mitigating circumstances, but he will be

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weaker. The main event of the day at the Conservative Party

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Conference, Boris Johnson shows up. If this is the moment life begins,

:01:04.:01:09.

maybe abortion is murder, but if it isn't, what is the date when

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abortion should become illegal. Campaigners on all sides of the

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argument are here. Unrest in Iran, as inflation heads

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sky wards and the economy plunges, is it possible that international

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sanctions are working. When he appeared at the Olympic Games they

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booed him. At least that didn't happen to him today, but he was

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speaking at the gathering of his own political party members. He

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spent over half an hour reassuring them he knows what he's doing,

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despite the fact that a Government who promised to sort out the

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economy is preying over a massive growth in public debt. We are all,

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apparently, still in this together. Allegra Stratton was there, and she

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was all ears. The speech was actually quite flat

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today, five years ago, you have to remember, ago was when George

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Osborne brought out the inheritance tax policy, and it stalled Gordon

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Brown's plans for a general election. He got his reputation

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there for being Houdini as Chancellor and politician, we are

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asking the question a few years into the Government if he still has

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that, and the opinion is mixed. You could say on his own tests he has

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failed. Two tests set at the beginning, he would eliminate the

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structural deficit by 2015 he has delayed that by two years. And the

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other thing is debt as a proportion of GDP would be falling. Again, it

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looks like, we are not certain, that will also not be met. The

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problem for George Osborne is not now, but in a few weeks time we

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will know that for certain. Therefore, he has to face the

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prospect of two of those targets not being met. All of the above is

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failure, I do think it is a mark of the man that he has given himself

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the political space to be able to do that and get away with it.

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Remember when he announced he was delaying that rolling fiscal

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deficit reduction target, he got away with that with remarkably few

:03:19.:03:23.

scars. I think, firstly, the Labour Party is likely to accept at the

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next election that they agree with coalition spending plans. You have

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to, he has failed, on his own terms, but he has given himself the space

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to create new terms. It is politically clever, the economics

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not so good. Did he restore any political

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reputation today? No, today was a flat speech, a few policies in it.

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Very interesting for people like me. In terms of the mega-headlines,

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they didn't cut it, and didn't do enough, apart from a few clap lines

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on welfare. People here really like that, they like the �10 billion.

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Apart from that he didn't do enough. The main event for the Chancellor

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is in a few weeks time, when the Office for Budget Responsibility

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pronounce whether he makes that next cut.

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Thank you. The promise coming into Government of a return to growth

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has, so far, proven a miserable prediction. Despite this, the

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Chancellor still wanted to sound optimistic today. But does he

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deserve to be? We have been looking at his record, and outlook.

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Around Westminster and Whitehall, at least on paper, the Chancellor

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is known by his initials, you suspect he rather likes this H it

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suggests action, positivity and progress. Unfortunately, the

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economy hasn't been nearly so dynamic, economic growth isn't so

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much as G-O, as G-O-N-E. The Chancellor's job today in speech

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was to explain why the recovery was so much harder than he predicted,

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and to convince voters he still knows what to do. The truth is s

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that the damage done by the debts and the banking crisis was worse

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than we feared. The rise in the world oil price has been larger

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than anyone forecast. Sadly, the predictions that you made, that I

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made, that almost everyone here made, about the euro, turned out to

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be all too true. This makes the job more difficult. But it doesn't make

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it any less urgent. We all know we have economic problems, the

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Chancellor today, like Ed Miliband last week, was trying to define

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exactly what the big problem is, and therefore, what we need to do

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about it. Labour see the big issue as growth. Therefore, we need to

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stop austerity, or at least slow it down a bit, until growth returns.

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George Osborne, on the Conservatives on the othered hand,

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wants to show the big problem we face is too much borrowing,

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therefore, the last thing we should be doing, they say, is reining back

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on austerity. We need to keep going, with deficit reduction. Because the

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Government has missed its deficit reduction targets, it is having to

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outline new cuts and tax rises going into the next parliament. �16

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billion worth in total, �10 billion to come from welfare cuts. For, the

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Chancellor said, a very simple reason. How can we justify the

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incomes of those out of work, rising faster than the incomes of

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those in work. How can we justify giving flats to young people who

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have never worked, when working people twice their age, are still

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living with their parents because they can't afford their first home.

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APPLAUSE About �3.2 billion of the new

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deficit reduction will come from tax rises, but where from? One

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place they are not going to come from, said the Chancellor, is from

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the Liberal Democrats' preferred mansion tax on properties worth

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more than �2 million. It would be sold as a mansion tax, but once the

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tax inspector has his foot in the door, you would soon find most of

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the homes in the country labelled a mansion. Homes people have worked

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hard to afford and already paid taxes on. It is not a mansion tax,

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it is a homes' tax, this party of homeownership will have no truck

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with it. The leaflet the Conservatives were

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giving out today claimed the coalition had already reduced the

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deficit by 25%. The Chancellor even said so in his speech. The deficit

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is down by a quarter. In fact, he said it twice. Yes, we have cut the

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budget deficit, by a quarter. only way to get to a figure of near

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25%, is to stop counting at the end of the last financial year. Because,

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since then, the public finances have deteriorated sharply. If you

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include this period in a rolling 12-month total, well the reduction

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is only something like 18%. Even this might be overgenerous to the

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Chancellor. If you change the way of counting the deficit to the one

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preferred by many economists and used by the Office for National

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Statistics. It is called the current budget balance, and it

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ignores capital spending. On this measure the deficit peaked at �110

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billion in 2009/10, it dropped to �59 billion lasty, but on a holeing

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12-month total it is up to �108 billion. A reduction not so much of

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25%, how does 2% sound? Whichever way you slice it, there are big

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questions for the Chancellor. this December in his Autumn

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Statement, it looks like the independent Office for Budget

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Responsibility, will tell him at least one of his fiscal rules won't

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be met. We didn't hearing anything today about how he will respond to.

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That one of the biggest questions for him, and one of the most

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interesting issues for the economy and the public finances, will be

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now will he respond in December, when the OBR tell him, actually, on

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your current plans you are not going to meet the rules you have

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set yourself. There is more bad news for GO

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tonight, as he heads for a meeting of European finance ministers

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tomorrow, in the last few minutes the IMF have published updated

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growth forecast, with the UK growth prospects sharply devised downwards

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for this year and next. To discuss his boss's performance,

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the Treasury Minister David Gauke joins us from Birmingham. David

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Gauke, you promised when you came into power you would sort out the

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economy, instead of which you are borrowing more thanth year than

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last year, growth forecasts are downgraded tomorrow, and we are

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back in recession. Shouldn't he have apoll goised today? Well, --

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Apologised today? Well, no, the situation is clearly difficult for

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the economy in the UK, as it is in pretty well other developed economy.

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The fact is, that the eurozone has created great uncertainty t the

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damage done to the economy in 2007/8, by the financial cry sits,

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was more severen -- crisis, was more severe than anyone had thought.

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Add into that commodity prices have been high, that has made growth

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much more difficult. That is the essence of the problems we have

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faced. But this is a Government that is determined to address those

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problems, and make us more competitive and get growth in the

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economy. It doesn't sound like a Government that is determined to

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control things, he sounds like a passenger at the back of the bus?

:10:53.:10:57.

No. Clearly there are international factors, and, you know, Government

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has to deal with those. We are not powerless in the face of some of

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those international pressures. Clearly it is more difficult in

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terms of getting growth in an economy, when we're seeing many

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other economies in difficulty. The eurozone is clearly a major crisis

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that we have to deal with. We are doing everything we can to get

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growth, that is why we have measures on planning, on employment,

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that is why we are concentrating on getting more infrastructure

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spending. That is why we're taking steps to get funding for businesses.

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There are difficult circumstances. We accept that, but it doesn't mean

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we should abandon our attempts to get control of the public finances.

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That would be extremely reckless thing to do. He seems to think some

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of it is our fault. He said today there was a need for people to be

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working hard, as if we are not. How many people in this country are not

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working hard? I think the point he was making is a much bigger

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challenge for countries like the UK, indeed all mature western

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democracies. At a time when there is greater competition, when other

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economies are rising, that creates great opportunities, new markets

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for us to exploit. But if we sit back, if we are complacent, and we

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don't respond to the challenges, the future for countries that do

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that, is not particularly a happy one. That is why you have to take

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some of the, quite tough decision, to ensure we get growth in the

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long-term. It sounds to me that the person who ought to be working

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harder is George Osborne? We're all working very hard in terms of

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delivering policies that will make us more competitive, putting us in

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a position for stronger growth in future years. That is a big

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challenge we all have to face up to. That is why we're bringing forward

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proposals that may be tough and difficult, like welfare reform,

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that is why we are more demanding of our education system, and want

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to put standards up higher. That is why we have to have a competitive

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tax system. All those things are really important, that is what the

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Government is focusing on. couldn't even stick to a line on

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tax on Cornish pastties and caravans, could he? -- pasties and

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caravans, could he? These are measures we listened to what people

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had to say and changed policies. It is hardly fundamental to the

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position of this Government, in terms of bringing through some big

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spending cuts, getting control of the deficit at a very difficult

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time, and ensuring that we have credibility. We have goat

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credibility, that is why the markets allow us to have interest

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rates as low as they are, and we are determined to stuck to that

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course. There are Governments who in these circumstances would give

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up and walk away and abandon that hard-won credibility. That is not

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what we are going to do, that is not what George Osborne is B we are

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determined to ensure that we succeed -- is about, we are

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determined to ensure we succeed and press on. Your Government says

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there is about �16 billion of cuts to come, you have also said the

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cuts will be divided between cuts in public spending and rises in

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taxation, about a ratio of 80%-20%. Correct? That means you have �3.2

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billion in extra taxes to raise. How will you do that? Obviously any

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announcements in terms of taxes will be made at budget or Autumn

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Statements. I would make the point in every budget so far we have

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raised more from the wealthiest in measures like capital gains tax,

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stamp duty, land tax. We have taken measures to deal with avoidance. We

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have capped reliefs, we are prepared to share the burden around,

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so those with the broader shoulders share the greatest burden. That

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80%-20% split has taken over the whole financial period. The

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important thing is we don't tax ourselves into an uncompetitive

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position, and most of the academic evidence suggests that most of the

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focus should be on spending cuts, that is what we are delivering.

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As you know, your boss is a very unpopular man. When he appeared at

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the Olympics, people booed him, do you like him? Yes. I have worked

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for George for five years, he's a very good guy to work for. Why do

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you like him? Because he's very thoughtful, he's committed to doing

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what he can for the country. He's very, very bright. He wants to

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serve the country to the best of his abilities. Actually, at a

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personal level, someone to work with. He listens, he engages. He's

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the sort of boss that most people would want, I would say. You think

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the public will come to love him? think for any politician to hope to

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be loved, I think, is perhaps a little hopeful, I think he's

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someone who should be respected. I think he's doing an excellent job

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as Chancellor. The most excitable crowd at the Tory Party conference

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was not surrounding the Chancellor or the Prime Minister, but swirling

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around a man not even in the cabinet. Whatever popularity

:16:39.:16:43.

politicians have, Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London has got it. He

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says he's there to support the party conference, but he hides his

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ambition in the same way Eric Pickles could claim to be a hurdler.

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Boris is the friend without whom life would be a lout easier for

:16:56.:17:03.

David Cameron. The thing about mayor's with blonde hair, one of

:17:03.:17:09.

the country's most famous mayors was famous for an orchid stuffed in

:17:09.:17:19.

his Labour party pel. He made Birmingham go Zong. He overhauled

:17:19.:17:24.

the housing supply and the systems, Birmingham is used to nurturing

:17:24.:17:31.

mayors on to other things. Another one rolls into town in an hour. The

:17:31.:17:35.

Conservative's Prince across the water, today waded into Birmingham.

:17:35.:17:39.

This is as close as I will get to be in the paparazzi, we are waiting

:17:40.:17:42.

to get into Boris Johnson's slip stream, without which we have no

:17:43.:17:48.

chance to get close to him. Down there, cabinet ministers are having

:17:48.:17:53.

cups of tea without being bothered. It used to be the leader's speech

:17:54.:17:58.

that was the big thing, today it is Johnson I don't know who is the

:17:58.:18:03.

belle of the ball. A belle of the ball, featuring in a welcome video,

:18:03.:18:11.

made to warm the crowd up, ahead of the entrance by the real thing. At

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one point, one could hardly move along the thin corridors in

:18:15.:18:19.

Birmingham, the question for Boris Johnson is how much can he say. You

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can talk about winning 2012 elections in London, a notoriously

:18:25.:18:29.

hard city for the Tories. But how to win an election in 2015, is too

:18:29.:18:34.

close to the bone for David Cameron. Within moments it was clear he came

:18:34.:18:38.

to praise David Cameron, not to bury him, even a tiny bit. It is

:18:38.:18:44.

sometimes inevitable that a Major of a great -- Mayor of Great city

:18:44.:18:47.

may find himself that are at variance with national policy S of

:18:47.:18:51.

course, I'm stkpwoing to continue to lobby for a long -- going to

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continue to lobby for a long overdue answer to our capacity

:18:57.:19:04.

problems. But no-one as a result of that should have any cause to doubt

:19:04.:19:08.

my admiration for David Cameron. But an airport is the licensed

:19:08.:19:14.

disagreement. That morning Boris Johnson had writ on how the middle-

:19:14.:19:18.

classes -- written on how the middle-classes were shut out of the

:19:18.:19:21.

housing market. It is close to a denunciation of his party's

:19:21.:19:25.

strategy. There are many thousands of people who are the motor of our

:19:25.:19:30.

economy, who can't afford get the housing they need in London. They

:19:30.:19:35.

are not the people who normally qualify for affordable housing,

:19:35.:19:44.

they are on �34,000-�64,000. By the end the Johnson jingoism was

:19:44.:19:47.

employed in support of the coalition, not against it. If the

:19:47.:19:51.

Government goes the way it is going, sticks to the programme, doesn't

:19:51.:19:56.

get blown off party, remains a one- nation party, plonked squarely in

:19:56.:19:58.

the middle of British politics. Prime Minister's head of

:19:58.:20:02.

communications was watching closely When the economy improves and

:20:02.:20:09.

people feel it, I think that people are look back at the tough,

:20:09.:20:11.

pragmatic, responsible decisions this Government took, and say they

:20:11.:20:16.

were on the right lines. As much as Boris Johnson can be, that was a

:20:16.:20:21.

are strained performance for him. Clever tactic, dampen the

:20:21.:20:23.

expectation, but please the activists, they know, he's still

:20:23.:20:32.

the one they really love. Right now there is no vacancies for Boris, or

:20:32.:20:35.

cadidacy for Boris. But if things don't turn around, the

:20:35.:20:38.

Conservatives may find there is a necessity for Boris Johnson. The

:20:39.:20:41.

Conservative Party party is acidously not discussing something

:20:42.:20:44.

which very large numbers of the general population have strong

:20:44.:20:49.

views on. In that, perhaps, they reflect the general hypocrisy of

:20:49.:20:54.

the British people. The topic is abortion, it was illegal until the

:20:54.:20:57.

1960, the argument isn't about the principle of termination, which

:20:57.:21:04.

most people seem to agree with, but with the date up to which it is

:21:04.:21:07.

legal. The Health Secretary thinks it should be reduced from 24 weeks

:21:07.:21:12.

to 12. When it comes to abortion, they are

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about Assenor a bunch of politicians as they come. Prime

:21:16.:21:19.

Minister, Women's Minister, Home Secretary, all on record as

:21:19.:21:24.

favouring a reduction in abortion limits from 24-20 weeks. The Health

:21:24.:21:30.

Secretary would go even further, and bring it down to 12. None of

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these are new views, all four politicians voted to lower the

:21:35.:21:40.

limit, last time parliament debated abortion. What has changed since

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the 2010 election, of course, is the voting complex of parliament as

:21:44.:21:48.

a whole. It is problem safe to assume, it hasn't become any more

:21:48.:21:58.
:21:58.:22:00.

hostile to lowering the limit. Babies born before 24 weeks will

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only survive if they have help with their breathing, if they have

:22:05.:22:11.

intravenous nutrition, and a lot of other very demanding, costly and

:22:11.:22:14.

challenging treatments. Dedicated staff, and an important price of

:22:14.:22:19.

survival is that the baby's suffer a lot for many weeks. In Sweden,

:22:20.:22:26.

the latest evidence shows that a survival of 53% is possible at 23

:22:26.:22:32.

weeks, and 10% at 22 weeks. But this is only in a country which has

:22:32.:22:38.

probably the best social and medical conditions in the world.

:22:38.:22:42.

The woman who heads one of Britain's leading abortion

:22:42.:22:45.

providers, says people are not getting a clear picture of the

:22:45.:22:49.

latest evidence. Because all sides use it to help make their case of

:22:49.:22:53.

the One small study does not a huge body of evidence make. When I want

:22:53.:22:59.

to know about what's going on, with the survival of severely premature

:22:59.:23:03.

babies. The people I would be asking are the neonatologists, who

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work in those areas. My understanding at the moment, is a

:23:08.:23:13.

lot of those professionals are concerned that the public has an

:23:13.:23:16.

overly optimistic sense of survival rates. Rather than the other way

:23:16.:23:26.
:23:26.:23:28.

round. 12 weeks is best known as the time

:23:28.:23:31.

many women have the first scan. It is also the point at which the

:23:31.:23:36.

Health Secretary would like to see abortion limited. The logic of the

:23:36.:23:43.

12-week limit, is because that is the time when the foetus has

:23:43.:23:49.

completed oregano genesis, there is some logic in fixing the

:23:49.:23:54.

termination at that gestation. It is used in Europe-widely, the 12-

:23:54.:24:01.

week limit, for social terminations, in countries such as France they

:24:01.:24:07.

will allow later abortions for severe foetal abnormalities. That

:24:07.:24:13.

is the way we should go, in this country, I think. It is true babies,

:24:13.:24:17.

the vital organs have been formed by 12 week, and the feet tus are

:24:17.:24:22.

able to move around, and -- foetuses, are able to move around

:24:22.:24:27.

and so on. Evidence from neuroscenes does not suggest that

:24:27.:24:31.

the foetus is conscious or able to feel pain at that time. Impressive

:24:31.:24:38.

advances in ultrasound images, particularly the latest 3.D scan,

:24:38.:24:44.

which means we can see more, and opportunities for bonding between

:24:44.:24:53.

parent and child. The vast majority of abortions in the UK take place

:24:53.:25:01.

before 12 weeks, close to 175,000 in 201, 91%. That same year there

:25:01.:25:08.

were 14,000 abortions between 13-19 weeks, and just over 2,500, about

:25:08.:25:13.

1.5%, between 20-24 weeks. Very few women are seeking abortion after 20

:25:13.:25:18.

weeks of pregnancy. Those that do have got really good reasons for

:25:19.:25:26.

doing it. Sometimes it's that a test has indicated that their baby

:25:26.:25:30.

will be born with a disability that they don't feel they can imagine.

:25:30.:25:34.

Sometimes they didn't realise they were pregnant sometimes they are

:25:34.:25:37.

very young girls concealing the pregnancy from their parents.

:25:37.:25:41.

Sometimes it is women whose periods have stopped, and it never occurred

:25:41.:25:46.

to them that it could be because they were pregnant. I have seen

:25:46.:25:51.

these case his trees, I'm not really convinced by -- histories,

:25:51.:25:54.

I'm not really convinced by most of them, maybe one or two. I don't

:25:54.:25:58.

think we can let the exceptional case drive the whole question of a

:25:58.:26:03.

reduction of the abortion limit for the majority of women who come for

:26:03.:26:08.

termination of pregnancy. For many, focusing on the number of

:26:08.:26:13.

weeks at which to set the abortion limit, misses broader questions

:26:13.:26:18.

that should bring a fresh look to the old debate. While it is clear a

:26:18.:26:23.

12-week limit would get short shrift in parliament, any lowering

:26:23.:26:29.

of the limit down to 22 week, is less easy to call. With us to

:26:29.:26:35.

discuss the issue is Guardian columnist, Zoe Williams, Patricia

:26:35.:26:44.

Lohr, and chief executive of the Christian Medical Fellowship, and

:26:44.:26:48.

campaigner, Kathryn Attwood. To what is a reasonable lowering of

:26:48.:26:54.

the time limit? Of the 16 story Tory members of the cabinet, 13

:26:54.:27:04.
:27:04.:27:04.

voted in 2008 for it to come down. To what? 7-20 weeks, 2-16, 3-12,

:27:04.:27:09.

the European average is about 10-12 weeks. What do you think it should

:27:09.:27:14.

come to? I would like to see it come down substantially. To what?

:27:14.:27:19.

I'm opposed to abortion myself. Full stop? It is against the

:27:19.:27:22.

hypocratic oath. We should be moving much more in the direction

:27:22.:27:27.

of Germany, which has a 12-week limit, and an abortion rate 0% of

:27:27.:27:33.

our's. In an ideal world no abortions at all, you are an

:27:33.:27:37.

absolutist? I'm opposed to abortion, personally, myself, yes. I said

:27:38.:27:45.

that most MPs are not, but it is these amazing 4-D ultrasound, and

:27:46.:27:50.

the new information about foetal sentients, and babies surviving

:27:50.:27:56.

below 24 weeks, it is changing the opinions of many. What do you

:27:56.:28:01.

think? If we really want to look at the evidence, the facts are these.

:28:01.:28:07.

Foetal vaiblt has not reduced, even in places where we have viability

:28:07.:28:11.

has no reduced, even in places where we have the most care. There

:28:11.:28:17.

are no adverse health outcomes for the woman, psychological outcomes

:28:17.:28:22.

from the woman. And abortion is far safer than childbirth, even in

:28:22.:28:26.

places, again, with very advanced medical system. I think that this

:28:27.:28:32.

is the evidence. But most importantly, these are not

:28:32.:28:36.

decisions where people are necessarily weighing up scientific

:28:36.:28:41.

evidence. That is very important when people are facing a very

:28:41.:28:45.

premature birth, when there are serious medical health conditions

:28:45.:28:50.

involved, but for most people considering an abortion, it is

:28:50.:28:54.

about whether they are personally ready, whether they are financially

:28:54.:28:56.

stable, whether they are psychologically ready to bear a

:28:56.:29:01.

child or become a parent. Why do you think this has suddenly become

:29:01.:29:06.

topical, then? I know exactly why. It is nothing to do with the time

:29:06.:29:10.

limit on abortion, there is no way Jeremy Hunt will try to bring it

:29:10.:29:14.

down to 12 week, if he did, nobody would vote for it, it would never

:29:14.:29:19.

get past private members' stage. The reason he's doing it, is as

:29:19.:29:24.

Tories member do, throwing a sock to the right of the party, using

:29:24.:29:29.

women's issues as their territory, which is very irritating. I'm very

:29:29.:29:33.

pro-choice, I think your position is slightly illogical, if you are

:29:33.:29:37.

anti-abortion, it doesn't matter when the abortion take place. If

:29:37.:29:41.

your aim is to bring the number I have a borgss down, as you saw, you

:29:41.:29:47.

won't priing -- abortions down, as you saw, it won't bring them down

:29:47.:29:52.

much. You think an upper limit? don't think the streets are full of

:29:52.:29:57.

women trying to abort at a late stage. The logic of your portion is

:29:58.:30:04.

there would be -- portion, is no upper or lower limit. If you lock

:30:04.:30:07.

at countries without any upper limit, like canned dark you don't

:30:07.:30:12.

find people in the third trimester looking for an abortion. You would

:30:12.:30:18.

be in favour of an upper limit? don't think you need a limit.

:30:18.:30:22.

any kind? I genuinely feel you wouldn't find people seeking an

:30:22.:30:27.

abortion at a late stage, no. do you think it is a topical issue,

:30:27.:30:32.

suddenly? I agree that politicians are trying to create some sort of

:30:32.:30:36.

debate. I think it is great there is some sort of debate about the

:30:37.:30:43.

subject. It is important to bring the debate to the surface. What do

:30:43.:30:49.

you think? Agree with Peter, if we are talking about pre-born babies,

:30:49.:30:52.

lives starting with conception, all abortions ends the life. You are

:30:52.:30:58.

against all abortions? If every abortion ends the life of a human

:30:58.:31:03.

being, I disagree with all abortions. We have two

:31:03.:31:07.

diametrically opposed opinions, no sense of a political compromise,

:31:08.:31:11.

morally you take a position, they are diametrically opposed, that

:31:11.:31:18.

life, as you see it, is sacred, and you say choice is sacred? I'm happy

:31:18.:31:23.

to compromise at 24 weeks. That is where we are now. Presumably you

:31:23.:31:30.

were compromising at 28 weeks? Probably, yeah. Adorgs is legal

:31:30.:31:34.

right up to birth of disabled babies in this country. Six out of

:31:34.:31:39.

ten women think the rate should come down. The reason why people

:31:40.:31:43.

are changing their minds has all to do with the humanity of a baby.

:31:43.:31:49.

That is a 12--week-old baby. It is not, it is a model of of a 12--

:31:49.:31:55.

week-old baby? It is, it is a mottle of a 12--week-old baby, we

:31:55.:31:59.

know from Stuart Campbell's ultrasound, that these babies kick

:31:59.:32:05.

and twist in the womb at this stage. The data about foetal sentients in

:32:05.:32:11.

your early programme, is hot low disputed. There are a lot of

:32:11.:32:15.

neurophysiologyists and nutritionists who feel baby can

:32:15.:32:21.

feel pain and sense touch much earlier. There was a leading piece

:32:21.:32:26.

in a paediatric journal, which called a report from the royal

:32:26.:32:32.

colleges on foetal sentients and then with no clothe.

:32:32.:32:39.

He is misrepresenting the best data. The best data we have on foetal

:32:39.:32:45.

pain is that the neuropathways don't develop completely until 28

:32:45.:32:51.

weeks. That is hotly disputed. There is not evidence of whether a

:32:51.:32:56.

foetus will experience pain when it is not outside the room, and it is

:32:56.:33:02.

not conscious in utero. The ability to feel pain doesn't mean value as

:33:02.:33:06.

a human being, it is because we are humans. It is not about value as a

:33:06.:33:10.

human being, the argument you are making, every woman who finds

:33:10.:33:15.

herself with a pregnancy that she did not anticipate, goes through

:33:15.:33:18.

the thought process of whether or not she's actually ready to

:33:18.:33:23.

continue that pregnancy, and become a parent. That is where the

:33:23.:33:29.

humanity discussion? She's already a parent if she's pregnant.

:33:29.:33:35.

that becomes an issue. Do you consider yourself a parent as a

:33:35.:33:39.

pregnant woman. I'm in a situation where I'm in a stable relationship,

:33:39.:33:42.

financially stable, I'm psychologically to have a baby, I'm

:33:42.:33:46.

thrilled to have this baby. Whether it is a human life worthy of

:33:46.:33:51.

respect or not, depends on whether you want it or not. Its value is

:33:51.:33:55.

dependant on whether it is wanted, is that what you are saying?

:33:55.:33:59.

point is that people who have children are the same people who

:33:59.:34:04.

have abortions. But their pregnancy at different times in their lives

:34:04.:34:09.

means different things to them. And people are more than capable of

:34:09.:34:13.

thinking about what's most appropriate for a potential child

:34:13.:34:18.

at any point in their lives. child with potential. Those things

:34:18.:34:22.

have very little to do with how much it look like a human being, or

:34:22.:34:28.

whether the organs are formed. would agree with you, I would think

:34:28.:34:32.

whether it seems like a human, doesn't mean it is human or not, it

:34:32.:34:36.

is human by the fact that its both parents are humans. Surely all

:34:36.:34:40.

humans have a certain value no matter how big or old they are.

:34:40.:34:45.

I ask, your position, presumably, is at the point of conception that

:34:45.:34:51.

it becomes a human being. Is that a Christian position? It is a

:34:51.:34:56.

scientific position. You might as well say an egg is a human egg.

:34:56.:35:03.

egg on its own. Everything is pee tension human being. An embryo is

:35:03.:35:13.
:35:13.:35:14.

an actual human being. I think this is a faith thing. Doctors abided by

:35:14.:35:23.

the hypocratic oath, and the BMA doctors of all faiths and no faith

:35:23.:35:27.

at all. On the basis that a human embryo, a human foetus was actually

:35:27.:35:33.

a human being with potential, rather than a potential human being.

:35:33.:35:38.

Do you mean to say the BMA opposed abortion? I'm saying the BMA in

:35:38.:35:42.

1947 called abortion the greatest crime, the BMA, they did.

:35:43.:35:49.

Jo you will find things have moved on a bit since then. Clearly the

:35:49.:35:53.

medical profession has moved from rational to irrational positions

:35:53.:35:57.

through time. The latest worry story about Iran is the Islamic

:35:57.:36:02.

Republic could have produced enough weapons-grade uranium to arm a

:36:02.:36:08.

nuclear bomb within four months, but it would take longer to make a

:36:08.:36:12.

warhead. The die hards in Israel say they will do what they have to

:36:12.:36:18.

to protect themselves. In Iran there are increasing signs that the

:36:18.:36:21.

economic sanctions on Iran are taking effect, there are shortages

:36:21.:36:26.

of everything inside. Autumn is bringing a bitter harvest

:36:26.:36:29.

to the streets of Tehran and other Iranian cities.

:36:30.:36:38.

Prices are rocketing. Many food stuffs by between 40-60% in four

:36:38.:36:43.

months. And diesel fuel, following the removal of Government subsidies,

:36:43.:36:50.

has quadrupled in price. People are reporting to newspaper, to TV

:36:50.:36:55.

programmes inside, that they have stopped purchasing meat. They have

:36:55.:37:00.

dropped daily products from their weekly consumption and purchase.

:37:00.:37:04.

As a result of this crisis, Iranians are coming to terms with

:37:05.:37:10.

poverty, unrest, and growing polarisation in the country. While

:37:10.:37:15.

hardliners blame foreign plots, and reformers call for change,

:37:16.:37:21.

President Ahmadinejad's hold on power is starting to appear tenuous.

:37:21.:37:26.

Iran is under severe economic pressure at the moment. The

:37:26.:37:30.

currency has fallen by 40% in the last year alone, and 75% in the

:37:30.:37:34.

last year. It is a serious crisis for the Government, and people are

:37:34.:37:37.

suffering as a result. Whatever hardship the Government's economic

:37:37.:37:40.

policies may have caused, there is growing evidence that foreign

:37:41.:37:46.

sanctions are adding to the crisis. Dramatically so, according to one

:37:46.:37:52.

student in Tehran we contacted tonight. I think madness about this

:37:52.:37:59.

atomic programme has brought us to our knees. Especially sanctions.

:37:59.:38:05.

With each new sanction the price of the dollar rises in the bazzars of

:38:05.:38:11.

Tehran. I think people see it as a political problem. And, it is a new

:38:11.:38:15.

oil boycott that seems to be having the biggest effect.

:38:15.:38:20.

The export of oil in Iran has fallen to below 800,000 barrels a

:38:20.:38:25.

day. Just four months ago it was more than 1.5 million. In that

:38:25.:38:29.

context, sanctions have been quite effective. And the impact is

:38:29.:38:36.

beginning to show theself in terms of reduced availability of foreign

:38:36.:38:40.

currencies in open markets. And the ability of importers to continue

:38:40.:38:45.

financing their purchases. international squeeze began in

:38:45.:38:50.

ernest with UN sanctions imposed in 2010, on banks, shipping companies,

:38:50.:38:54.

and other businesses tied to the Revolutionary Guards. The banking

:38:54.:38:59.

sector was hit again earlier this year, when the US froze broad

:38:59.:39:04.

catagories of Iranian Government funds, and the EU shut several

:39:04.:39:06.

Iranian banks out of the international banking transaction

:39:07.:39:12.

system. In July, the EU oil embargo came into effect. That, combined

:39:12.:39:17.

with US pressure on other countries, is already thought to have cut

:39:17.:39:24.

Iran's oil revenues by 40%. More pain is on its way for Iran's

:39:24.:39:29.

leader, the EU is about to extend its oil embargo to Iranian national

:39:29.:39:34.

gas. The country's foreign currency reserves are being whittled away,

:39:34.:39:38.

in part, supporting the Syrian Government. That's estimated to

:39:38.:39:43.

have cost Iran $10 billion already. And President Obama is under

:39:43.:39:48.

pressure, from his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, to take a

:39:48.:39:54.

tougher line still with Iran. I put the leaders of Iran on notice,

:39:54.:39:58.

that the United States and our friends and allies, will prevent

:39:58.:40:02.

them from acquiring nuclear weapons capability. I will not hesitate to

:40:02.:40:05.

impose new sanctions on Iran, and will tighten the sanctions we

:40:05.:40:13.

currently have. What many now wonder is whether

:40:13.:40:16.

sanctions and economic crisis may achieve what years of diplomacy and

:40:16.:40:21.

the threat of military action, have failed to do. The suspension of

:40:21.:40:27.

Iran's nuclear fuel enrichment programme. From about the end of

:40:27.:40:34.

2009 until April 2012 thisy, Iran barely met with the P56789 plus 1

:40:34.:40:38.

that is the four Security Council powers, since April they have met

:40:38.:40:42.

three times, in Istanbul and Moscow. They have returned to the table.

:40:42.:40:45.

Sanctions have played a very big part in bringing them back to the

:40:45.:40:50.

table. But the regime and the supporters in the security

:40:50.:40:54.

apparatus still breathe defiance, recently they have threatened to

:40:54.:40:58.

banish the UN from nuclear site. They may still eat their words, and

:40:58.:41:02.

it might just be that sanctions cause that.

:41:02.:41:09.

For this long stand-off, has certainly entered a you in phase.

:41:09.:41:14.

We have with ous a Tehran-based journalist working for the Iran

:41:14.:41:24.
:41:24.:41:25.

state TV news networking and we're joined by Clifford May, from a

:41:25.:41:30.

Conservative think-tank. Do you this -- think this shows sanctions

:41:30.:41:34.

are working? It shows it is having an impact on economy. For them to

:41:34.:41:38.

work you would want two things to happen, the Supreme Leader would

:41:38.:41:43.

have to decide that it is not worth it to have nuclear weapons f it

:41:43.:41:48.

means his economy and the -- if it means his economy and the people

:41:48.:41:54.

will have to suffer so much. Or the people of Iran would say we can no

:41:54.:41:58.

longer abide these rulers or the regime that doesn't have our

:41:58.:42:03.

interests in their heart, but want to build nuclear weapons and

:42:03.:42:07.

threatening genocide against Israel, we can't take this any more, and

:42:07.:42:12.

you see a replay of 2009, with more support. If the purpose of

:42:12.:42:17.

sanctions is to change the calculus, it hasn't happened yet. What do you

:42:17.:42:22.

think has been the cause of this unrest in Iran? There was an unrest

:42:22.:42:27.

on Wednesday, the fact is, the Government has been monitoring the

:42:27.:42:34.

unofficial money markets, and there were a number of dealers who were

:42:34.:42:38.

short-selling, a bit like Black Wednesday in Britain. Short-selling,

:42:38.:42:45.

nothing to do with sanctions? Sanctions have affected Iran, the

:42:45.:42:51.

price of goods are up 50%, the import of goods are up 150%. They

:42:51.:42:55.

have affected Iran. But have they affected Iran to the point that it

:42:55.:43:03.

should be on the knees? No, it made do with $3 a barrel during the

:43:03.:43:08.

Iran-Iraq War. It won't work that way. The US would be better advised

:43:08.:43:14.

to look at another solution for the Iranian problem. You see no

:43:14.:43:17.

possibility of the sanctions forcing the regime to either

:43:17.:43:24.

abandon its nuclear programme, as was suggested, or for people to say

:43:24.:43:31.

they won't put up the -- with the regime? Well chemical weapons

:43:31.:43:34.

shouldn't have been supplied to Saddam Hussein where it killed

:43:34.:43:37.

millions of martyrs. This is completely irrelevant? They would

:43:37.:43:43.

like their country to progress and proceed further. Also Iran's fossil

:43:43.:43:50.

fuels, rate geem argument, -- regime argument. The regime

:43:50.:43:55.

argument is a person feels finite. A good example of this is Saudi

:43:55.:44:00.

Arabia can't come up with the surplus oil to make it work.

:44:00.:44:04.

are looking sceptical? I think most Americans and people in the west

:44:04.:44:08.

would love to see the Iranians, prosperous, free, living better

:44:08.:44:13.

lives. We think Iranians, probably, are more capable of having a free

:44:13.:44:17.

country and democratic society than perhaps any peoples in the Middle

:44:17.:44:21.

East. Weish wished we could have good co-operation and progress. We

:44:21.:44:25.

can't have that with the current regime. The negotiations have gone

:44:25.:44:29.

nowhere, despite the sanctions we haven't seen a spirit of compromise

:44:29.:44:35.

on the part of the Supreme Leader, or the IRGC. I think the sanctions

:44:35.:44:41.

will have to get a great deal more harsh before the calculus changes.

:44:41.:44:45.

Or before the economy, I'm sorry to say, collapses. There will be a

:44:45.:44:51.

time at which I think there will be no foreign currency resources left

:44:51.:44:58.

in Iran, that can be facilitated. I'm sorry, I find it difficult to

:44:58.:45:02.

believe from a proponent of enhanced interrogation technique,

:45:02.:45:10.

the Iraq War. That is nothing to do with T deal with the analysis?

:45:10.:45:13.

find the goodwill a little hard to believe, and knowing which camp you

:45:13.:45:17.

come from. Meaning you take great pleasure in going into countries

:45:17.:45:22.

and rendering them like you did with Iraq. So let's stop that. Iran

:45:22.:45:27.

will not come to sneeze, I tell this, the fact of the matter is,

:45:27.:45:32.

the oil that oil and gas that you are saying you have placed under

:45:32.:45:38.

sanctions, is continuing to be told. The solution, I was here talking to

:45:38.:45:42.

Nick Burns a while back. The solution with Iran is understanding

:45:42.:45:47.

Iran. I know hardliners, such as yourself, who present a friend low

:45:47.:45:51.

face towards us u the fact of the matter is you have tried every

:45:51.:45:55.

which way the last 30 years and gotten nowhere. You have to

:45:55.:45:58.

reconsider your position, because pretence won't pay off with

:45:58.:46:04.

Iranians. The fact of the matter is, while I

:46:04.:46:08.

feel friendly towards the Iranian people, and wish I could visit. The

:46:08.:46:12.

Iranian regime in power for 30 years has been a terrible failure,

:46:12.:46:17.

the people of Iran are less free than even under the Shah. They are

:46:17.:46:21.

less prosperous than under the Shah. Iran is the leading sponsor of

:46:21.:46:27.

terrorism in the world, it is trying to develop nuclear weapons

:46:27.:46:34.

while oppressing its own people. Not since the 2009 up rising

:46:34.:46:38.

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