14/11/2012 Newsnight


In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines, with Gavin Esler.

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Tonight, Israel saw him as a top terrorist, today killed the Hamas


military leader. After further strikes in Gaza tonight, civilian


deaths and blood curdling promises of retaliation, could the


assassination of Ahmed al-Jabari, lead to an even more bloody


conflict in the Middle East. Also tonight, strikes across Europe,


hundreds of thousands of workers take to the streets to protest at


austerity and cuts. In Spain, rubber bullets and


teargas, fired at protestors in central Madrid, temperatures


inflamed by the evictions of those losing their homes. Here at home, a


ray of sunshine, as unemployment is down again, sag flaigs might be


coming back. Stagnant growth, -- stagflation, might be coming back,


stag grant growth and higher inflation. We will discuss this


with economist, protestors and politician. The soldier, the


secrets and the sex scandal the, all America is talking about,


General Petraeus pet talks to Newsnight. I'm under no illusion


that he knew it was the right decision that he personally had to


take. Tomorrow sees a by-election in a seat, which for 30 years has


predicted the British political weather, Corby. How do you go about


replacing Louise Mensch. You are not going to start writing chicklit


books, Have I Got News To You? No connection to heavy rock bands?


20 years older than Louise, and I wouldn't know what to do with a


rock star if I found one. Good evening. There is no doubt


that Ahmed al-Jabari was a big player in the struggle between the


Palestinians and Israel. He was the military commander of Hamas in Gaza.


A man described bit Israeli Defence Forces as someone with blood on his


hands the IDF assassinated him, and strikes across the country have


followed. Israel has said only the start of an operation to hit


militant groups. NATO strikes have been launched tonight. In Egypt,


the first country to sign a peace treaty with Israel, and now under


the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood. Mohamed Morsi


immediately recalled Cairo's ambassador. What does the killing


of Ahmed al-Jabari tell us about the new and explosive geography of


the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. What happened here? I have to show


you rather graphic images. This is the scene in Gaza City today,


immediately after the destruction by Israel. This is the Carrying


Ahmed al-Jabari, the Hamas military chief, and one other Hamas official,


they were killed. As far as Israel is concerned this is a highly


successful operation against a man responsible for many missile


attacks against Israel. Also responsible for Hamas's links with


the main military backer, Hamas. The Israeli army res -- released


this film which shows the car being tracked and hit. His body was taken


to hospital, followed soon afterby some very young casualties of other


naval and air strikes. At the end of the day, Gaza's health ministry


said that a further nine people had been killed, at least in various


strikes. But, of course, we expect that number to rise.


What do you make of the timing of this? Well, Israel's killed many


Hamas military commanders over the years, including one senior


commander, who was suffocated in a hotel in Dubai two years ago. But,


this is the most senior target since 2004. There is no doubt, I


think, this is linked to a rather sudden upsurge in missile attacks


from Gaza into Israel, particularly in the last couple of weeks. Indeed


110 rocket attacks since Saturday. What the Prime Minister, Binyamin


Nethanyahu, said, is we have to give a clear signal against Hamas.


And also in other strikes, the main aim was to try to reduce or get rid


of Hamas's stockpile of rockets. Those are the Iranian rockets that


can go rather further and target main population centres in Israel.


There has been a lot of rhetoric after this attack today. Does the


conflict seem, now, likely to escalate? What Mr Nethanyahu said


today was that if necessary the operation, Israelis operation


against Hamas, would be broadened. I spoke to the former head of


planning in the Israeli Defence Force, Giora Ireland, and asked


what that might mean. He said, this is only possible, he said it would


be logical to extend the attack, not only to strictly military Hamas


tarts, but also to Hamas infrastructure, to police stations,


to bridges, as a way of punishing Hamas. Hamas's reaction to this was


very predictable. It talked about opening the gates of hell against


Israel. And already today it has been reported that intercepted by


Israel's shield there have already been 13 Hamas rockets successfully


intercepted. I suppose what is also different is the whole political


context now, the Middle East has changed. Mohamed Morsi in Cairo,


Muslim Brotherhood, his political party, were saying Israel has to


get its head round the fact that things have changed? Absolutely,


this is a completely new landscape, this is the first conflict of this


kind between Hamas and Israel, since the Arab Spring, and since


the election of a Muslim Brotherhood Government in Egypt, by


ideolgical is at one with Hamas. Egypt very, very strongly of course,


has condemned this attack. I think it will remain principally at the


level of rhetoric. Because even the new Government in Egypt has


indicated very clearly it is committed to the peace treaty with


Israel and so on. The main danger is, Israel has very important


security co-operation with Egypt in the Sinai Peninsula, where we have


seen a big upsurge in terrorism, since the Egyptian revolution. For


both sides, they would really suffer if that co-operation was


curtailed. The other part of this political context is that within


Israel itself, where we are in a run up to an election, and as you


well know in the run up to the election the Prime Minister tends


to want to look tough on security? Certainly, because of the missile


attacks on Israeli towns and village, there has been even more


annual a big, big demand in Israel for action against Hamas, and


certainly that is what Binyamin Nethanyahu was responding to. Right


across the boar, in Israel, at -- board, in Israel, at least to begin


with, this will be welcomed. Certainly it will do Mr Nethanyahu


absolutely no harm at all in the elections in January.


Daniel Ayalon, the Israeli deputy minister joins me now. What do you


think that Israel has achieved by killing Ahmed al-Jabari? We have to


remember that Ahmed al-Jabari was the Bin Laden of Hamas. He has many,


many innocent lives on his head. The fact that he was overseeing the


new attacks on Israel for the last two week, by actually taking him it


is not only self-defence, it is a classic self-defence, and hopefully


a message and prevention and preefplive -- pre-emptiveness for


the future. There is no way to reason with the terrorists, but by


defending yourself in a way where they won't be able to operate again.


You have in the past killed Hamas founder Yassin and his successor,


you have killed previous military commanders, and while you have


successively removed one enemy of Israel today, you have probably


created a whole lot of other one. There will be a successor to this


man? Well, I would beg to differ. We did what we had to do in killing


the head of terror. We did achieve deterrence. We gave Gaza entirely


to the Palestinians, we left Gaza all together in 2005, seven years


ago. Since then, instead of having a responsible part, taking


responsibility and managing the lives in Gaza and negotiating with


us on peace and reconciliation, we saw, actually, that ham maz was


emboldened, getting -- Hamas was emboldened getting an Arsenal of


terror, long range missiles, and terrorising more than one million


Israeli civilians in the population on the southern border and southern


parts of Israel. What we see now. Picking up on the point of


civilians, there were civilians killed on the other side today,


would you like to apologise for those needless deaths? Anybody


innocent civilian who gets killed is deplorable, and I would


apologise for anything. We would not like to do that. But, I would


say that the responsibility for the death and the killing is of the


Hamas. Because what do they do? Not only do they target the civilian


population in Israel, but they plant themselves, implant


themselves in the midst of the civilian population in Gaza. In


fact, they use the Gaza population as a human shield for their hidious


attacks. We will leave it there.


Workers and students in more than 20 countries across the European


Union took part in strikes and protests today, to show their


disgust at cuts and austerity measures. As you might expect, the


largest protests were in those Mediterranean countries where the


budget axe is making the deepest impact. In the new Sick Man of


Europe, Spain has an even more emotional issue, some people are


being forced out of their homes in a wave of prepossessions and


evictions. We report on -- repossessions and evictions. We


report on the human cost of the economic mess.


Again they came, from the factories, from the public sector, from their


homes. Some who marched in tonight's demonstration, were from


Spain's nearly six million unemployed. Some were pensioners.


This is the second general strike in Spain this year. They wanted to


protest against the Government's austerity, and to show their anger


at its effect on ordinary Spanish people. Here, in a suburb of Madrid


this morning, one family looked set to suffer the most extreme


consequence, losing their home. Inside this block were three


generations, six people on the brink of being evicted. The police


came, the bailiffs were there, protestors learned of it and


gathered. Earlier this week, Spanish banks had said the


evictions of the most needy people would be suspended. They had come


under pressure after two suicides linked to evictions and an outcry.


Today, perhaps because of the general strike, they haven't


arrived, so it is almost certain, although we will have to wait for a


while, that this eviction has not, will not be carried out. Then,


celebration. The official responsible for the eviction had


not turned up. The family were immensely relieved. TRANSLATION:


I'm really happy, she told me. And I'm nervous. But when I asked her


what happens next? She had no idea? The bank could go back to court and


get a new eviction date. She's the only wage earner in her family now,


a cleaner, she can't pay the mortgage of 1300 euro every month.


They are celebrating a small victory in this Madrid


neighbourhood, but nobody knows what will happen next, not even the


lady herself, and nobody knows either whether this is to be the


pattern going forward, fewer evictions, fewer repossessions. If


so, what will be the consequences of that for Spanish banks, and for


Spain itself. Spain has to make its mortgage law


more lenient, to bring it into line with the rest of the EU. If there


is a freeze on evictions, some say, that could have an impact on the


banks. It will surely have an impact, because it will increase


the debt of the banks. But I don't think that's the worst problem the


banks have. So it will be just an added problem, and could be


properly solved. We then have to think that going on with the


evictions will also cause serious problems, not just in human terms,


or in social terms, but also in economic termsment we are talking


about now those evictions we are seeing now is people who lost their


jobs in 2009, because the law is very slow. This is just a gathering


storm, we will see it worse in the coming years.


Beatrice is a nurse, supporting today's strike, taking part in


tonight's march. In 10% of Spanish families now, both parents are out


of work. Even those with one income worry. Beatrice has finished her


temporary contract, her husband works in the often unpredictable


building industry. They are worried about the future. TRANSLATION:


any point you could lose your job, we could maybe stay afloat on


unemployment benefit and savings for a year at most. There will be a


moment where we have to choose between paying the mortgage and


eating, obviously I have a daughter and I have to feed her.


TRANSLATION: It is a difficult situation. The Government are


making it tougher for us, with two salaries, you really struggle to


pay your bills every month. If one of the salaries goes, it is even


worse. Unions claim the turnout today and


tonight has been strong, police estimates were far more modest, the


night is not over though. These demonstrations have been


taking place across the country, not just in Madrid, and police say


there have been over 100 arrests during the day. It is quite late


now in the capital, but some people still have an appetite for protest.


The main rally is over, they are on their way to another demonstration.


And their mood was defiant. They will do it again, this English


teacher told me. We have to go to the streets, we have to be a group


of people, not people individually, you know. We have to fight for our


rights. The Government says it will not change its policies. And the


country's current economic position leaves little room for manoeuvre.


More strikes, more protests, seem certain.


We have a PhD student and supporter of the demonstrations today,


Mariana Mazzucato is professor of economics at Sussex university, and


Jose Maria Beneyto is a spokesman for Spain's People's Party on


Spanish affairs. Was this another day of


demonstration in Spain, or have things changed? No, it wasn't just


a demonstration. First, it was the largest cord flated strike and


protest movement -- co-ordinated strike Europe has ever seen. It


shows the nature of change in protests. At the Spanish level, it


was the outcome of an increasing social unrest that has been


developing over the last year as people get to live the consequences


of the socialisation of the financial crisis. Evictions is that


part of it, you are losing your home, 350,000 people since 2008?


People are getting evicted from their own home by the very same


banks the taxes helped to bail out. The Government have been


controlling the interests of the financial sector and not the


interests of those they are meant to represent. You have an economic


crisis, you have a social crisis, now perhaps you have a public order


crisis? Well, I wouldn't dramatise too much the situation. Because, of


course, you know, the right to strike is granted by the


constitution, there were protest and demonstrations today, they were


very peaceful. There were also -- they were also limit the in their


skom. There has been an -- limited in their scope, there has also been


an expression of the people's feelings. But I wouldn't dramatise


it and say it is a general unrest in the country. When you have a


third of a million people over the past four years losing their homes.


You have somebody who apparently committed suicide as a result of


being evicted, things have changed in Spain? The person who committed


suicide was linked to an eviction, they were not directly evicted from


the house. Of course the situation is not easy. We have, as a


Government, we are in a position negotiated with a moratorium for


the extreme cases of need. We are fully aware of the situation of a


number of the Spanish citizens. Of course, you know, the course of


fiscal consolidation is not an easy path, but I don't think we have


another one. We need growth and jobs, but we need, particularly,


first, to tackle the problem of too much public expenditure of the past.


The years before. Let me bring in Mariana Mazzucato here. It's tough,


it's hard, is Spain on the right course, because, basically, in


slightly different ways, all of Europe is doing broadly the same


thing? I think it is absolutely on the wrong course. Because basically


what we are seeing are these massive cut, which are not creating


any gain. It is all pain with no gain. This is why we have these


demonstrations. So, in fact, Spain was a country that before the


crisis had quite a low deficit, 3- 4%, it is very hard to say that


Spain's problems today are because it was spending too much. Perhaps


it was spending in the wrong place, but for sure it was not the public


debt that was the problem. It was the private. Instead what we are


seeing is public sector wages are come down, public services are


being put, and this, of course, is hurting demand, as well as general


confidence in the economy. We don't have any investment. And we don't


really see the end, it will get worse. It will be a 50%


unemployment amongst the young. 25% for the whole economy, and this is


only getting worse. You are going a way of grief, in other words, which


is you are taking the pain, but the gains are not there? It has nothing


to do with the situation in Greece. I do not agree with what has just


been said. If you look into the figures, now Spain is having


positive data. We have increased enormously our exports,


productivity is increasing. It is not that we are in the path of


Greece. It is a completely different situation. What do you


think the Government should do, then, as suggested, broadly,


European Governments are practising austerity, one end to another, they


all seem to think it is working, in some ways, you have just heard the


argument for it? The situation is not working, and the Government is


hiding behind this narrative. There are plenty of other options to take,


they have chosen not to. instance? There has been


conversations on a whole range of measure, including taxes on


financial transactions, abolition of tax havens o at least


prohibiting to give Government contracts to those companies in the


tax havens, and not putting the bad on the most vulnerable. Many things


have been suggested, the Government is choosing to ignore them. What


would you be the alternative, broadly is that what was just


advocated? I would support those measure, with very interesting in


Spain, and it differentiatates it from Greece. -- grease. They were


lead investors in wind and solar energy, that has all gone down here


since the crycy is, those kinds of investments in new technologies,


was positioning Spain to become what Germany is today. The real, I


think, problem right now, is unlike what we saw today, which is a co-


ordinated action by the European Trade Union's Confederation. We


don't have the same level of co- ordination in the European


Commission, in what all the countries should be doing to become


competitive like Germany. Germany is investing a lot in all sorts of


things, they have patient capital through a state investment bank, by


is funnelling resources directly to the companies who need it, as


opposed to always going indirectly via private banks, which is not


working. What do you fear might happen now, if this is the route


that Spain is going? Government's seriously doing its


best to sink the country as much as it can. All the measures they have


taken have produced this horrible human crisis. Now it is not a


financial crisis, it was a financial crisis had a has turned


into a social and human crisis. have produced a human crisis?


is certainly not the case. The human crisis comes from the fact


that we had a deficit of 9.4% last year. With a the previous


Government. -- with the previous Government. Our Government was


putting public expenditure to the top in Spanish history. This was


the real problem. You cannot find, as a country, with a 9.4% deficit


every year. This is the real issue that we have to tackle, first, and


then, of course, you need growth, and you need jobs. You need


measures in order to improve those two points as well. We're running


out of time, thank you all very much.


In the 1960s, the Conservative politician, Iain MacLeod coined the


phrase "stagflation" to describe low growth and rising inflation.


Today the Governor of the Bank of England talked of a long and


winding road to recovery, in which low growth is likely, and inflation


is a danger. But the latest figures continue to show one bright spot,


unemployment continues to fall. Not quite the old stagflation of the


60s. Economist, Howard Archer, has coined a new definition of what is


ahead, perhaps a DIRE decade, Disappointing Inflation, Rotten


Expansion. We have been trying to figure out where growth might come


from, Gerard Lyons reports. These people are in fashion, they


call themselves the Bloomberg of the fashion sector. They are a


dotcom that started up three years ago and is now hiring one new


employee a month. There are two places in a month where you could


do a business like our's, either you New York or London, we looked


at New York or London, it seemed like the talent pools were fairly


equivalent. It seemed like the friction for doing business of


maybe a tiny bit lower in New York, but getting much better in London.


Also, critically, in the fashion industry, fashion moves faster in


London as well. It really seemed like London was the right place to


set up. There are already 300 start-ups in


tech city, nicknamed "sill conround about", and many wider in the East


London area. They could be the answer to the question, why is the


UK economy so weak, yet creating so many jobs. Unemployment has fallen


to 2.51 million people, or 7.8%, signal as robust labour market. The


number of people collecting jobseeker's allowance rose to 1.58


million. The number of time work stands at a record of 8.1 million.


Temporary workers are also near record highs of 1.6 million. This


suggests the figure for those underemployed could be close to 10%


of the work force. I don't think one would say that the data release


this morning were weak. Some signs in the claimant count of a small


increase, that may -- maybe it is beginning to move. There were still


falls in unemployment, a rise in employment, a big increase in total


hours work. It is still a strong labour market. There is very little


unemployment in tech city, business is booming and it is creating a


virtueous circle, meaning its success attracts the best software


developers in Europe. They are not paid peanuts, most of the staff are


earned over �40,000 u and the average age is over 28. There are


hundreds of families barely surviving on the minimum wage.


Unemployment in some neighbourhoods is 40%. Campaign groups like London


Citizens, are hoping to place a thousand less well off people with


technology firms nearby. It is really hard to have two Londons in


such a small area, on the one side you have the rich, the other side


you have the really poor. You can see where the money is. And how


people just throw away money, literally. And then I'm coming to


work and working with families that are really struggling. There is


families that do not have the money, at all, to access to feed their


children. I'm having to find food vouchers for them. So that at least


Friday, for the rest of the weekend, they have got food to eat. That's


really hard to see. It may not be very aesthetic, but silicone round


about and its people may yet to prove to be a thing of great beauty.


An ecosystem of hundreds of start- ups, employing thousands of well-


paid people. It happens just as the banking sector, long an engine of


growth, appears to be entering a period of irreversible decline.


The financial sector accounts for 10% of the UK economy, but few


people believe it will remain that high in the coming years. An


estimated 250,000 people are directly employed by banks and


insurers in the City at the moment. Down from its precrisis peak of


2350,000. With all major banks cutting staff, especially in


investment banking, staff numbers will be probably at a 20-year low


by the end of next year. The hope is that places like the Google


Campus, will create a shrew of self-employed people who hire


themselves, and others in cafe-like environments like this. What the


Government is doing right is championing Tech City and the tech


cluster in the UK. Opportunities to improve are in the areas of


immigration, enabling technical talent coming to the UK. In the


area of education, strengthening the education system, especially


the technical degrees and the skills that people come out with


from university, and financing. the meantime, the rest of the old


economy, on which Britain is still very dependant, will have to limp


on with anaemic growth for a few years, before a new economy emerges


from the Chris lisence. Mark Hoban was the co-founder of


lastminute.com, and an invester in start-up, and Gerard Lyons is chief


economist at the Standard. One economist said it was a DIRE decade,


Disappointing Inflation, Rotten Expansion, is that how you see


things? The world economy is doingle with, it is continuing to


grow. What the UK, like western Europe needs to do, address


underlying problems. If we start to do that we can become more positive


the reality of the situation is whatever economy one looks at, the


outcome depends on the interaction between the fundamentals and public


confidence. In the UK the fundamentals are not great, but


better than they were. Policy doesn't really have much room for


manoeuvre, but could do more, unfortunately confidence is pretty


rock bottom. The question is if policy could do more, what policy


would be doing the more, what would you like to see? I would like to,


obviously, entrepeneurs, we have record levels of people starting


companies in this country. That's the good news. The thing is s they


are just not getting big enough. They are not expanding faster. The


emphasis that has been coming on international trade, I do think,


actually, is very relevant. I think it is actually still much harder


than one thinks. Using the Internet as a network to help people trade


international, out of the UK, this great trading nation, I think there


is lots of room for optimisim there. If we don't do it, the world's


going to be belonging to Amazon, is that a possibility? That is


something I would love to seat economists focus on, what happens


in ten years time if e commerce and the Internet sales will be as big


as we think it will be, and most of the companies are maerpblg. That is


why the sec saving -- American. That is why the tech savings is


more important, there is so much economic value that could be taken


away from the UK by the big American tech giants. Do you


broadly agree with that, that is one part of the future. The


Government talks about rebalancing the economy, away from financial


services, that may happen for all kinds of reasons, high-tech is one


part of the future? I think what is interesting when we look at these


big companies, like Google, Amazon, Apple, in the US, and talk about


how can we in Europe and the UK create them? There is this myth


that the reason we don't have those kind of companies is we don't have


enough angel investors and venture capitalists. If you look at Silicon


Valley, there was a huge state of investment, going goggle as all


georhythm was funded by the science division. Everything behind the


iPhone, that makes it a smartphone, touch screen display, the Internet,


the voice-activated personal assistant, is state-funded. You


need the venture capitalist, but in the US with nano tech and the


internet, the VC model is good after the state has made the huge


investments that venture capitalists can ride N this country


we don't have the confidence of a Government that feels it does have


the manoeuvring possibility to confidently invest in these new


areas. I personally wouldn't like to see Government invest. Already


the European investment, Europe invests 40% of venture capital.


That is the limit you are wondering. What the Government can do,


encourage through the tax system it, entre pent nurses to keep investing.


That is what they are doing -- entrepeneurs, to keep investing.


That is what they are doing. There is the question of unemployment


going down, I have seen a lot of analysis, one is they are not good


jobs and part-time. Another analysis is real wages in Britain


have gone down, which helps a flexible labour market? A whole


host of things are happening. Public sector jobs are being shed.


Although those in public sector jobs now are getting paid more. In


terms of the rest of the economy, part-time work, temporary jobs are


rising. It is a mixed picture. We saw this in Japan, when the


financial crisis happened 20 years ago. People held on to workers in


the hope that the economy would turn round. Also because it is


difficult to rehire worker. I think the key issue, coming back to the


wages point. The big problems we have in Britain and continental


Europe is a lack of demand. What should the Government be doing,


trying to get more demand into the economy. We have talked about


infrastructure, there needs to be tax cuts to get money into people's


pockets, the excise duty on petrol, all these things help. At the same


time you need to encourage big companies, who have the finances


available, to start investing. does that square with the view that


the cuts haven't started yet and it will get deeper next year? Stp do


any of you foresee -- do any of you foresee the kinds of troubles we


have seen in Spain happening here? The problem is demand, but both in


terms of the consumers, because we have had this, basically what we


need is a Government that doesn't act like a business. Business


invested too little during the boom and too little during the bust. We


need a counter cyclical Government that makes up for the fall in


investment. What guides private sector investment? GDP in all


countries is the most volatile part of GDP. This notion that some how


it will be tax cuts that will make this country more entrepeneural,


and lead investments, I think is really flawed. Two wrongs don't


make a right. The previous Government spent too much in the


good times and not in the rest. The issue would be to stop spending in


the bad times. We need more money in people's pockets, but we need an


innovative industrial sector. I was at the Guildhall on Monday, the


Government was talking about an industrial policy.


We need more money in the economy. The etoric and branding of Britain


-- rhetoric and branding of Britain being open for business to attract


more business. We will get the Skype message out. People were


talking today in Brussels about why are so many start-ups are moving to


London. That is great use. We will get some billion-dollar companies,


it is about tax cuts, and Britain is open for business, that is a


message coming across. I completely disagree, there is a big poster


outside the British and skills administration, saying Britain is


open for business, lowest tax and lowest registration. People are


leaving the UK. Not because we haven't demand in the economy.


go to companies with a strong strategic investment policy S


Pfizer went to Boston. Other companies are coming to London.


have invested in several coming from Spain moving to the UK.


green companies are the new -- the new companies are internet, the


green companies are leaving. Recent political history shows


whichever party wins the seat of Corby ends up in Downing Street.


There is little wonder the by- election campaign has been keenly


fought. Tomorrow, following the transient political comment, Louise


Mensch who quit to spend more time with her family, Corby voters will


have a chance to tell us what they think of the Government and the


opposition parties. We have been zoo see -- see which way the wind


is blowing. First to bury a non-fact about


Corby. I was a bit bored so I dismandled the Corby trouser press.


It is not the home of the Corby trouser press, let's dismandle the


Corby by-election, because this is the home of some very interesting


politic. For a start, it feels like several constituencies, the


agricultural, the industrial, the affluent and less well off. Because


of this diversity, Corby acts as a national opinion poll. In fact, in


every single general election, since the constituency of formed,


the seat has been won by the party that goes on to form a Government.


They loved Maggie, and pipped for John, just, and then fell for tone


he yoo, then David came along. There is -- Tony, then David came


along. They were general elections where voters asked who do you want


to be a Government. This is a by- election, very different. Voters


here are answering the question, what message do you want to send to


the Government. The toughest fight belongs to the


Conservatives, defending a 3.5% majority, in, well, let's not say,


the best of circumstances. The outgoing MP was very outgoing. For


some reason, Louise Mensch, the glamorous game-show inhabiting


novelist, decided to give up politics to go to America with her


rock star husband had. I'm 20 years older.


The Conservative candidate replacing her, promises to be


different. Is the electorate listening. The limiting polling in


the seat has been suggesting Labour has a lead. What is dragging your


ticket? Is it national politics, David Cameron, local factor, Louise


Mensch and that baggage, or is it simply the economy in the electoral


cycle. What is hold you back? not being held back, the economy is


holding up, a million new jobs created since the coalition came


into power. 5 new companies set up in Corby and east Northamptonshire


in the last quarter. Apprenticeships are up 124%. There


are lot of good signs on the economy. I think people recognise


that. This being a by-election, plenty of other parties are


fighting Corby. But, as they say, Corby is fighting back.


They are banned from canvasing in the town centre, and well, were


these signs put up specially. The Lib Dems are smiling for


photographs, but it is unlikely they will be come Friday. The polls


suggest the only hope they have is their candidate, Jill Hope. A by-


election should be a classic Lib Dem opportunity. How difficult is


it this time when Lib Dems are in Government? Obviously it is very


difficult, I spent many years in opposition, it is so easy, you


criticise others and say you could do better, you never have to


promise anything concrete. All of a sudden we are delivering


policiesering but it is wonderful. I have spent many years as a


Liberal Democrat watching Government make really bad


decisions. Now 75% of our manifesto has been delivered. Jostling the


Liberal Democrats for third place is UKIP. At the general election it


was the BNP that came forth. That time UKIP didn't stand. We are


speaking common sense, we are really identifying with common


sense policies and politic. People are really, they can't put a pin


between the other parties. So they are looking for change. They are


looking for an independent voice. If they vote for the other three


they know there will be no change. Which brings us on to labour,


trying not to look too confident, but, according to the polls, poised


for their first by-election gain from the Conservatives for 15 years.


How much of this do you think that you are detecting pro-Labour, and


how much of this is anti- Government? People will make up


their mind on Thursday, I hope people vote. They will make up


their mind on a range of things. It is important people choose the best


person to be the MP, I have shown I'm there for the families. I have


ran a campaign to fight for the truth in the hospital. People can


see I'm a fighter for this area. We leave the Corby campaign with


the Conservatives in a familiar- sounding village. We are in


Warmington, shall I say don't panic? That was Warmington-on-Sea.


General David Petraeus was, amongst other things, the thinking man's


soldier, genuine and curious, and very much admired in the United


States and beyond. Now the sex scandal in which he's embroiled has


led to him being forced out of the CIA and led to the US military


apparatus being subject to a certificate yes, sir investigation.


We assess the significance -- serious investigation. We assess


the scandal with the help of the British soldier General Petraeus's


second in command in Afghanistan. So the man lioniseed by the


Americans, pressed for turning around the war in Iraq, called upon


to try the same in Afghanistan, and then sent off to the CIA has fallen.


There was a time when he could do no wrong, in front of congressional


committees. But now, he has gone, like some hero of the ancient age,


because of a woman. General Graham Lamb was his deputy


in Iraq, and became a close friend. So the loss of him as an individual,


in my view, in no way is insignificant. The loss to the


organisations, though. Should also be taken into account. His actions


were inappropriate. They were unworthy. They were just to people


like myself, who will always look up to David, before, now and in the


future. We are just disappoint ed. He knows that. But the implication


and the consequences to the organisations, both the institution


of the US military, and the likes agency, in effect, will be impacted


by these event. What could be lost policy wise is


Petraeus's advocacy for more action on Syria, or a reduction of drone


strikes in Pakistan. I first interviewed General


Petraeus in Baghdad four years ago, and have met him several times


since. Once he introduced me to Paula Broadwell, the woman he


subsequently admitted having an affair with. Whatever his drive and


extraordinary intellect, David Petraeus's long years on


operational tours and perhaps his brush with cancer, left him open to


the attractions of a driven young woman.


Miss Broadwell was investigated by the FBI, originally, as the


possible source of threatening e- mails to Gill kely, another friend


of General Petraeus. However explanation of Mrs Kelley's e-mails


revealed thousands from General John Allen, current NATO commander


in Afghanistan. The scandal has now engulfed the White House too.


General Petraeus had an extraordinary career. He served


this country with great distinction, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and as


head of the CIA. By his on assessment, he did not meet the


standards that he felt were necessary as the director of the


CIA, with respect to this personal matter that he is now dealing with,


with his family, and with his wife. It is on that basis that he


tendered his resignation, and it is on that basis that I accepted it.


Does a man who has wielded powers of life and death, but brought down


by an apair signal American purience or is it a symbol of bath


Sheba ism, they are looking at modern King Davids in America, of


high command. The question becomes why do successful and moral good


people get caught up in doing wrongful things, it is a lack of


supervision, accountability, too much praise, not enough, I think


completeness in their life, if you would, social isolation, the


biggest one could be that people don't believe the rules apply to


them, or they believe, wrongly so, that they have the power to cover


their wrongdoing. That is what we have come to call the bath Sheba


syndrome. General McChrystal because of staff indiscretions,


Petraeus to infidelity, and now John Allen is being investigated


for his correspondence with Gill Kelly, that runs to more than


20,000 e-mail, many suggestive. What advice does a veteran


commander offer those settinging to wield high command? You are in the


constant space of being blamed. You are in the constant space of risk


to reputation and career. You're in the constant space of catastrophic


failure. So, you know, this is a big deal. But our expectations


should be and should continue to be, that we look to the very highest of


standards of those individuals, and continue to expect that of them.


But, when they stumble and fall, as many will surely do, and David,


General David is an example of that, we want to be a little careful in


just being too harsh in our judgments. What was once a private


matter, between a man and his wife, has brought down a celebrated


American hero. But, the model of the modern general, has to be


morally impecable as well as skilled on the battlefield.


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