10/12/2012 Newsnight


10/12/2012

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Jeremy Paxman.


Similar Content

Browse content similar to 10/12/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

help mothers get back into work. We help mothers get back into work. We

:00:14.:00:17.

reveal what the Government hopes will happen to make childcare more

:00:17.:00:23.

affordable and the economy a little more vigorous.

:00:23.:00:27.

Looks sweet, doesn't she, but are she and her friends secret

:00:27.:00:30.

saboteurs of the nation's economy. Can we afford to have a million

:00:30.:00:34.

mothers priced out of work by the cost of childcare. We want to be

:00:34.:00:38.

active members of society, that's all, and earn enough to feed our

:00:38.:00:43.

kids. Would reforming the tax system sort things, and come to

:00:43.:00:51.

that, why is childcare so dapld expensive in this country.

:00:51.:00:56.

-- damned expensive in this country. With Cairo posed for demonstration,

:00:56.:01:00.

and Goon squads on the streets. We talk to the opposition lead,

:01:00.:01:04.

Mohamed El Baradei, what does he make of President Morsi's rule.

:01:04.:01:07.

is something unprecedented in the whole history of the world. I don't

:01:07.:01:10.

think any of the Pharaohs had the same powers.

:01:10.:01:16.

And young, gifted and gaz san, what's it like to be 18 in one of

:01:16.:01:19.

the most troubled places on earth. TRANSLATION: I haven't lived long

:01:20.:01:24.

enough to know what will happen in future, all I know is we are born

:01:24.:01:34.
:01:34.:01:39.

into war, we live in war, and we As any parent knows, children cost,

:01:39.:01:44.

a lot. So much so hum drum. But the cost of childcare has now been

:01:44.:01:46.

diagnosed as such a drag on the economy, that Newsnight understands

:01:46.:01:50.

that the Government is about to try to do something about it. We

:01:50.:01:53.

understand the coalition is considering reforming the tax

:01:53.:01:57.

system, and relaxing restrictions on childminding. There will be

:01:58.:02:07.
:02:08.:02:08.

announcements just after Christmas. Our political editor has more.

:02:08.:02:12.

In among the traffic of inner city London, a statue to motherhood, in

:02:13.:02:16.

among the Hurley burly of the British economy, mothers too have

:02:16.:02:20.

retreated to bring up baby, while the hustle and bustle carries on

:02:20.:02:30.
:02:30.:02:32.

around them. This statue is bronze, but you could measure what is lost

:02:32.:02:39.

to the economy with women at home in gold bullion. The rise in

:02:39.:02:43.

British living standards appears to be driven by at least, in part,

:02:43.:02:48.

women entering the work force. But in recent years those rises have

:02:48.:02:53.

plateaued, and childcare appears to be playing a part. When women have

:02:53.:02:58.

children they don't as much reach a glass ceiling but a mess neen.

:02:58.:03:03.

Their income is much diminished when they return. Politicians all

:03:03.:03:08.

round agree it is a problem, a problem where nearly a million

:03:08.:03:11.

women are missing from the work place. The Government talks a lot

:03:11.:03:14.

about mums returning to work, but not doing anything to really help

:03:15.:03:19.

us return to work, I want to, we want to. If they could put more

:03:19.:03:25.

money into supporting mothers going back to work host-six months, nine

:03:25.:03:28.

months, that would make a huge difference on careers not being

:03:28.:03:32.

lost. A tale of two mums, on very different incomes, both visited by

:03:32.:03:36.

Newsnight today. One training to be a nurse, and another, an

:03:36.:03:40.

entrepeneur, who did run a company with with a large turnover, both

:03:40.:03:43.

wondering why, in Britain today, it is so difficult to care for your

:03:43.:03:50.

kids and care for your career. We have seen the appearance of

:03:50.:03:55.

something of a childcare bubble. A lot of money has gone in, but the

:03:55.:03:59.

price has risen higher and higher. The organisation of economic co-

:03:59.:04:02.

operation and development, estimates in terms of how much the

:04:02.:04:06.

Government puts into childcare, Britain is behind only the high-

:04:06.:04:08.

spending Scandinavian countries. Experts can test this figure, they

:04:08.:04:12.

say it includes elements that are not strictly childcare, and that

:04:12.:04:17.

when a purer measure is used, British state spending on childcare

:04:17.:04:21.

is actually somewhere in the middle. All three and four-year-olds

:04:21.:04:27.

receive 15 hours of paid childcare a week during school term time. By

:04:27.:04:34.

September 2014, disadvantaged two- year-olds will also receive help.

:04:34.:04:38.

Childcare Tax Credits can be claimed by a household where when

:04:38.:04:43.

either parent works 16 households a week. Most households to claim it

:04:43.:04:53.
:04:53.:05:06.

Nonetheless, the cost to families appears to be very hive. According

:05:06.:05:11.

to the OECD, the average UK family spends 27% of its income on child

:05:11.:05:17.

cautious that is the second-highest among OECD countries. It is for

:05:17.:05:21.

this reason that the inclination inside Government is to reform how

:05:21.:05:26.

childcare is provides, free up the regulations on who can become a

:05:26.:05:29.

childminder. In our experiences, the spaces required most are for

:05:29.:05:33.

the younger age group. There has been a lot of attention, a lot of

:05:33.:05:37.

funding on the nursery space, and therefore, accommodating older

:05:37.:05:42.

children, therefore, I would be delighted if the focus could be

:05:42.:05:45.

moved towards childminding, making it easier to register as a child

:05:45.:05:52.

minder, increasing the numbers of childminder places, so enable more

:05:52.:05:56.

children who of a younger age to be left in a home, nurturing

:05:56.:06:00.

environment. It's for this reason that the inclination inside

:06:00.:06:04.

Government is to reform how childcare is provided, before any

:06:04.:06:08.

increase in its funding. Free up the regulations on who can become a

:06:08.:06:15.

childminder. Ministers are looking to France. Their -- there one

:06:15.:06:19.

childminder can look after four children, here it is three, but

:06:19.:06:23.

quality is not diminished there. When I was looking for childcare

:06:23.:06:26.

and deciding whether or not to work. I would have loved to place my

:06:26.:06:30.

daughter in a home environment, where someone was looking after my

:06:30.:06:33.

own child plus my dau, so I knew they were in control of what they

:06:33.:06:37.

were doing, and they were happy to do that, that's what I wanted, was

:06:37.:06:42.

a nice, safe environment for them. Whether they are following

:06:42.:06:47.

educational guidelines was not a priority for me.

:06:47.:06:52.

Increase league avail -- increasing availability of child minders, with

:06:52.:06:55.

new requirements expected for higher qualifications with a view

:06:55.:07:00.

to bringing down the costs, that is one way to bring down the wall in

:07:00.:07:06.

childcare that the Government is to announce in January. What if easing

:07:06.:07:09.

the availability isn't the only problem, what if state funding

:07:09.:07:13.

isn't enough state funding. We want to get back to work, me and other

:07:13.:07:17.

mothers in my situation, we want to get back to work, we want to be

:07:17.:07:20.

active members, but we really can't, because of the financial restraints

:07:20.:07:25.

we have on us. Labour politicians are proud of the

:07:25.:07:28.

investment they made in child cautious including Sure Start, but

:07:28.:07:32.

now many think they must change tack, that new money must be spent

:07:32.:07:35.

on providing the child cautious instead of just giving the parents

:07:35.:07:39.

the ability to pay for it, if there is little to buy, prices remain

:07:39.:07:43.

high. Free universal childcare for all 1-4-year-olds, is something the

:07:43.:07:46.

opposition would like to offer. do spend a lot of money currently

:07:46.:07:51.

in this country supporting the childcare sector, supporting

:07:51.:07:55.

parents. But is all that money being spent in the best way. This

:07:55.:07:59.

is what we are trying to do. Hopefully we will be bringing

:07:59.:08:02.

forward some proposals in due course, that will definitely make

:08:02.:08:08.

this a lot better for the future. The Conservative came has always

:08:08.:08:11.

been to make childcare tax deductable, Newsnight understands

:08:11.:08:15.

they will make progress on this in January. Offering a flat rate of a

:08:15.:08:20.

third tax-free, because there will be statues erected to the political

:08:20.:08:25.

party that cracks this. The Institute for Public Policy

:08:25.:08:29.

Research think-tank shows 25 hours provision a week, would provide a

:08:29.:08:36.

net benefit to taxpayer for between �1,000-�4,000 a year for every mum

:08:36.:08:40.

that returns to work. Something you can measure in gold. No-one from

:08:40.:08:43.

the Government was available to speak to us tonight, I'm joined by

:08:43.:08:48.

a French socialist MP, who represents French expats in

:08:48.:08:55.

northern Europe. Karen Walker from the Bank First Direct, Zoe Williams,

:08:56.:09:00.

and Helen Penn, I pointed by Government to write a report into

:09:00.:09:03.

child cautious she has submitted her report and it is still awaiting

:09:03.:09:07.

publication. What about the idea, professor, of one childminder being

:09:07.:09:12.

able to look after more children, will that solve the problem?

:09:12.:09:16.

Why not? Well, the problem is that the cost is so high at the point of

:09:16.:09:22.

ruse, whether it is a childminder or a nurse -- use, whether it is a

:09:22.:09:27.

childminder or nursery. Those childcare that has a low cost for

:09:27.:09:31.

parents funds the provision directly, so when the parent comes

:09:31.:09:35.

to pay it is reasonably calculated on the basis of household income.

:09:35.:09:40.

We will get on to that point in a moment or two. Why is it in France

:09:40.:09:44.

one person can look after so many more children than apparently they

:09:44.:09:50.

can do here. Are French children better behaved? They are very

:09:50.:09:54.

disciplined, don't you know! I'm not too sure, exactly. I think it

:09:54.:09:59.

is three children per childminder. Are we overregulated? No, clearly

:09:59.:10:05.

the child minders need good training and supervision. In France

:10:05.:10:09.

we offer a mission of solutions, through Child Tax Credit, universal

:10:09.:10:15.

child benefit and spaces in nurseries, and encouraging child

:10:15.:10:19.

minders to do their jobs. What is your gut instinct? My gut instinct

:10:19.:10:23.

is the Government is going about it all the wrong way. Basically, you

:10:23.:10:27.

talk about a million women jumping out of the work force because they

:10:27.:10:31.

can't afford child cautious that corresponds directly with the drop

:10:31.:10:36.

in child -- childcare, that correspond dends directly with the

:10:36.:10:44.

drop in -- corresponds directly with the drop in Child Tax Credits,

:10:44.:10:49.

that coincides directly with that. The solution isn't more nannies, it

:10:49.:10:55.

is making it possible for those on low incomes to afford childcare. It

:10:55.:10:59.

is not for other women to earn less for other women to pay them, you

:10:59.:11:04.

are creating a poverty problem somewhere else. Karen Walker, First

:11:04.:11:09.

Direct, you run your own childcare programme there, do you? We do, yes.

:11:10.:11:16.

It is run by an external company, but we have had the relationship

:11:16.:11:19.

for the last 23 years. How many children have you got in it? Around

:11:19.:11:22.

250 children in the nursery. many adults looking after that vast

:11:22.:11:27.

number of children? It depends on the age of the child. But it will

:11:27.:11:32.

either be a one-to-three ratio or one-to-four ratio, depending on the

:11:32.:11:36.

child. Could the adults cope with more? Not in that environment, no,

:11:36.:11:41.

I don't. Why is it worth your while, as an employer, providing this

:11:41.:11:50.

service? Why do we do this? Yes? Because very much it is about our

:11:50.:11:55.

support for our parents and carers to come back into work, when they

:11:55.:12:00.

have been off on paternity leave or maternity leave. We have invested a

:12:00.:12:03.

lot of time to recruit and develop these people, it is really key for

:12:03.:12:06.

us to get them back into the work place and we are able to support

:12:06.:12:11.

them for that. Why is it so important? Because we

:12:11.:12:15.

invest up front, we invest a lot in these people, we know that if we

:12:15.:12:19.

value our people that they will value our customer and we are in

:12:19.:12:22.

the service industry. It results in amazing service for our customers.

:12:22.:12:25.

You are not a social service, you are doing this because it makes

:12:25.:12:30.

sense to the company? It makes perfect sense for our company.

:12:30.:12:34.

Let's look at this question. Go on, you are desperate to get in? This

:12:34.:12:37.

is the conversation they had in Germany, not particularly about

:12:37.:12:40.

customer services, when we were discussing the fact that they had

:12:40.:12:44.

very poor childcare provision, they said, look we spent all the money

:12:44.:12:46.

educating women, then we lose theired education when they drop

:12:46.:12:49.

out of the work force and don't come back, they literally had a

:12:49.:12:53.

conversation, do you stop educating them, or do you start paying for

:12:53.:12:58.

childcare! It was that stark. Because otherwise you lose so much.

:12:58.:13:01.

Virtually every advanced western economy is confronted with this

:13:01.:13:05.

problem, and they have decided to go about it in different ways,

:13:05.:13:09.

Helen, you were referring earlier to wait in which the finances

:13:09.:13:15.

operate, the Government finances? Yes, most countries use supply-side

:13:15.:13:19.

funding, that is they fund the nurseries directly, so that

:13:19.:13:23.

nurseries can offer low fees to those parents who can't afford very

:13:23.:13:29.

much. We do it backwards so, we make people pay whatever the

:13:29.:13:35.

nursery asks, and we say, well we will refund you, perhaps. So at the

:13:35.:13:40.

point of use, parents are faced with huge costs for getting a

:13:40.:13:44.

nursery or even a childminder. France went for that system, didn't

:13:44.:13:48.

they, essentially, the French Government funds the nurseries

:13:48.:13:52.

directly, doesn't it? Yes, yes. Which means it is almost free for

:13:52.:13:57.

the parents. But then, not all the parents are guaranteed to have a

:13:57.:14:03.

space. The current Government is undergoing a vast programme of

:14:03.:14:09.

offering new spaces in new nurseries in order to meet the

:14:09.:14:13.

requirements. I think it is half a million of children still need

:14:13.:14:16.

spaces in nurseries. Well, I wish our Government would

:14:16.:14:20.

copy you. It is also about the future of the state, because there

:14:20.:14:24.

is the demo graphy at stake here, the children of today will pay for

:14:24.:14:32.

the pensions of tomorrow. It is about a national strategy to

:14:32.:14:36.

encourage families to have children. We spend by calculation, it is hard

:14:36.:14:40.

to work out, about �7 billion in this country on this matter.

:14:40.:14:43.

Possibly a higher proportion of the national income than you guys spend

:14:43.:14:50.

in France. Why is it so inefficient here? It is always inefficient if

:14:50.:14:55.

you give the finding retrospectively, people -- funding

:14:55.:14:58.

retrospectively, people don't do it and it is a muddle. The number of

:14:58.:15:02.

people who don't claim is really very high. We can't, it is very

:15:02.:15:08.

difficult to track the funding, it is very difficult to follow it

:15:08.:15:12.

through. But who are these people who don't claim, it is free money?

:15:12.:15:15.

Well lots of them. There is unclaimed benefits all over the

:15:15.:15:20.

place. It is hard to make claims. And any way, people's circumstances,

:15:20.:15:23.

particularly when they have young families are continually changing.

:15:23.:15:28.

Who really benefits from the fact that we do it this way round?

:15:28.:15:38.

it's hard to say. It discriminates on people on lower incomes, isn't

:15:38.:15:43.

that the case? Certainly our system doesn't benefit those on lower

:15:43.:15:46.

income, if you look at it comparatively across the country,

:15:46.:15:50.

we do rather badly by the poorest. Our system is just very wasteful.

:15:50.:15:54.

It is not, as you say, we are not spending the money, we are spending

:15:54.:15:57.

the money, but it doesn't seem to be going where it is needed most.

:15:57.:16:00.

That is the absolutely baffling thing about childcare in this

:16:00.:16:04.

country, is nobody is getting rich out of it, the nurseries aren't

:16:04.:16:08.

getting rich, the nursery workers aren't getting paid that much,

:16:08.:16:11.

mothers are crippling themselves to afford it. Childcare is very

:16:11.:16:15.

expensive in this country? It is expensive everywhere, it is not a

:16:15.:16:19.

cheap service. Human relationships cannot be priced down in a very

:16:19.:16:25.

straight forward way. You can try. But still it is known to be very

:16:25.:16:30.

expensive, it can cost up to �300 a week, so it means women have to

:16:30.:16:34.

choose between keeping their job, or looking after their children. It

:16:34.:16:38.

shouldn't be that. You have got children? I have two children.

:16:38.:16:42.

you living here when you had them? Yes. Could you get childcare?

:16:42.:16:49.

was a student, so I had to stay at home, I was looking for a job.

:16:49.:16:53.

was simply because you couldn't afford it? I couldn't have afforded

:16:53.:16:58.

it. Could you have afforded it in France? I suppose so, I haven't

:16:59.:17:03.

tried, it depends where you live. In some cities childcare is

:17:03.:17:08.

affordable, and it is not a case in the other places. You explain this

:17:08.:17:12.

difference by the fact that the state subsidises the nurseries or

:17:12.:17:16.

the childcare provision in France and it doesn't here? I suppose so,

:17:16.:17:21.

all I can see is in the end the average spending on childcare for a

:17:21.:17:26.

family in France is around 10% of the monthly budget, where as it is

:17:26.:17:30.

around 30% here. So there must be something going wrong somewhere,

:17:30.:17:33.

but I don't know where, exactly. Karen Walker, from your experience,

:17:33.:17:38.

what do you think is the responsibility of the state?

:17:38.:17:45.

think it's to provide help and support, in terms of the facilities

:17:45.:17:48.

that we provide, and putting a little bit more pressure on

:17:48.:17:51.

employers as well. I think there is a lack of facilities available when

:17:51.:17:55.

you walk into a work place, that provides for working mums and

:17:55.:18:00.

fathers. So you think that the state should

:18:00.:18:03.

be encouraging other employers to do what you are doing? Absolutely,

:18:03.:18:09.

yes. It should. Should it go further than encourage, should it

:18:09.:18:13.

subsidise? I think that would be really useful. They do offer a free

:18:13.:18:16.

education entitlement for children over three, so I could put my

:18:16.:18:20.

children in nursery externally, and get that entitlement for free up to

:18:20.:18:25.

so many hours a week. But, they could do so much more.

:18:25.:18:29.

What's your sense of whether we're likely to change the way in which

:18:29.:18:37.

we do this? We have some fundamental problems about how we

:18:37.:18:41.

define childcare and education. You wouldn't expect businesses to

:18:41.:18:45.

provide education instead of school, so why on earth are you expecting

:18:45.:18:50.

them to provide childcare. I think the whole system that we have here

:18:50.:18:56.

needs to be co-ordinated, better thought out, and if the price is

:18:56.:19:00.

that parents notionally don't have so much choice, maybe that is a

:19:00.:19:03.

good thing. Do you think Government is seized of the urgency of this

:19:03.:19:09.

problem, what is it doing to the economy? Well, we have a lower

:19:09.:19:13.

percentage, relatively low percentage of working women, 63%,

:19:13.:19:19.

compared with up to 80% in some countries. But the worst thing for

:19:19.:19:24.

me, I think, is that it is the poorest families who aren't using

:19:24.:19:28.

the childcare. That's a question of social justice, I suppose, as much

:19:28.:19:33.

as anything. What is the effect on society? That women aren't working,

:19:34.:19:36.

or that children aren't getting educated properly. That women

:19:36.:19:42.

aren't working, that you have this core of trained individuals who,

:19:42.:19:45.

because of biological circumstances, are no longer in the work place?

:19:45.:19:50.

That is costly, but I think it is also costly that children aren't

:19:50.:19:54.

educated properly as well as looked after. Until we get it straight

:19:54.:19:56.

what is childcare and what is education, and what we should be

:19:57.:19:59.

doing for children and what we should be doing for mothers, we

:19:59.:20:05.

will not really progress very much. What do you sense the consequences?

:20:05.:20:08.

Obviously there is an economic consequence to lose these women out

:20:08.:20:12.

of work force. Especially, as we know what happens, there is a

:20:12.:20:17.

Doppler effect that the longer you are out the longer it takes to get

:20:17.:20:23.

back in and you never get back to the same level. There is a social

:20:23.:20:28.

problem if kids don't mix at a young age, Sure Start ensured that

:20:28.:20:32.

kids from all kinds of backgrounds really got familiar with each other

:20:32.:20:36.

from the age of one, it was a huge big deal. I think to lose that

:20:36.:20:40.

would be really tragic. Do you sense something odd about this

:20:40.:20:45.

society because of the way that we deal with this question? Not too

:20:45.:20:50.

much French gloating, but off you go? No, but I'm not sure it is the

:20:50.:20:55.

markets or the markets only that should deal with childcare. I think

:20:55.:21:00.

it is a society question, and it should be also up to the state to

:21:00.:21:07.

look into it. We have a system where childcare is regarded as a

:21:07.:21:10.

business, and people buy into it. It is like all these things, under

:21:11.:21:15.

the guise of choice, you end up with no choice at all, you can

:21:15.:21:19.

either afford it or not, that is the only choice. We will await the

:21:19.:21:21.

announcement after Christmas with great interest.

:21:21.:21:25.

Thank you very much. Hard to read the ruins in Egypt these days, on

:21:25.:21:30.

the one hand the new President has given up powers he had given

:21:30.:21:36.

himself, but on the other he has authorised the military to arrest

:21:36.:21:42.

civilians. Not unexpected on the second anniversary of the Arab

:21:42.:21:45.

Spring there would still be demonstrations. Big protests are

:21:45.:21:47.

planned tomorrow, ahead of the referendum this weekend, where

:21:47.:21:51.

people are asked to pass judgment on their new constitution. Liberals

:21:51.:21:56.

claim that Mohamed Morsi, the President, is as bad or worse as

:21:56.:22:00.

President Mubarak. Before I talk to the opposition leader, Mohamed El

:22:00.:22:02.

Baradei, our diplomatic editor reports.

:22:02.:22:06.

Egyptians have certainly done plenty ofing since the fall of

:22:06.:22:10.

Mubarak, but it -- voting since the fall of Mubarak, but it hasn't

:22:10.:22:14.

brought stability. Protests and industrial action have done much to

:22:14.:22:19.

frighten off tourists and investors, leaving Egypt's economy tottering.

:22:19.:22:26.

Democracy, per se, has hardly helped. In November 201011, the

:22:26.:22:32.

first of three phases of -- 2011, the first of three phases of

:22:32.:22:38.

parliamentary elections were held, in January 2012 it produced a

:22:38.:22:42.

majority for the Muslim Brotherhood, and Salafist parties. Then came the

:22:42.:22:48.

presidential polls, the first round in May featured a variety of

:22:48.:22:52.

candidates. By June, and the run- off between Mohamed Morsi and

:22:52.:22:58.

former general Ahmed Shafiq, third way candidates who represented

:22:58.:23:01.

neither the Muslim Brotherhood and the military had gone, many people

:23:01.:23:03.

abstained as a result. Now on Saturday they will get the chance

:23:04.:23:11.

to vote on a new constitution. But this has prompted renewed battle on

:23:11.:23:17.

the streets. It retains existing clauses that

:23:17.:23:23.

Sharia or religious jurs prudence should be the main source -- juris

:23:23.:23:25.

prudence should be the main source of law. It gives the Islamic

:23:25.:23:30.

university a role in drafting new laws, and says the state shall

:23:30.:23:33.

protect ethics, morals and public order. It also allows for a

:23:33.:23:40.

continued military role in upholding that order.

:23:40.:23:44.

A limits the President to two four- year terms. Since Dr Morsi's

:23:44.:23:49.

election, there has been a war of decrees, between a constitutional

:23:49.:23:53.

court trying to thwart the new ruler. And a President who wants to

:23:53.:24:03.

grasp his democratic mandate. TRANSLATION: I'm eager to protect

:24:03.:24:06.

the legitimacy of the country, and I'm against those who harms the

:24:06.:24:13.

institutions and the nations, I will never allow them to do that.

:24:13.:24:17.

The President's decree of last month was intended to nudge aside

:24:17.:24:22.

the judiciary, while he got the new constitution through. But the

:24:22.:24:26.

backlash against his tactics has energised hundreds of thousands of

:24:26.:24:33.

Egyptians, who reject both the old regime and the Muslim Brotherhood.

:24:33.:24:37.

They had long alleged a de facto alliance between the country's old

:24:37.:24:41.

military elite, and it's new Islamist masters. By calling the

:24:41.:24:45.

army to protect the Presidential Palace, President Morsi has given

:24:45.:24:51.

these opponents new purpose. Earlier I spoke to Mohamed El

:24:51.:24:55.

Baradei, his home in Egypt. I asked him how he was planning to

:24:55.:25:01.

vote in Saturday's referendum. Jeremy, I think at this stage you

:25:01.:25:07.

are going to fight the referendum in the street. Tomorrow there will

:25:07.:25:15.

be a huge demonstration. We believe it is illegitimate to go and vote

:25:15.:25:21.

for a sham draft constitution. We would at least time to reach a

:25:21.:25:26.

consensus on a constitution where we will all accept and all will

:25:26.:25:30.

live with it. This is a constitution that defies our basic

:25:30.:25:33.

rights and freedom, it doesn't establish a proper democratic

:25:33.:25:40.

system. We are at this stage deciding that we continue to fight

:25:40.:25:44.

tooth and nail the referendum next Saturday. You will boycott the

:25:44.:25:47.

referendum? We are not sure at this stage, injure me I think tomorrow

:25:47.:25:51.

we are going -- Jeremy, I think tomorrow we are going to stage a

:25:51.:25:55.

huge demonstration, hopefully Mr Morsi will listen to us, and

:25:55.:26:01.

postpone the referendum until we are able to reach, through dialogue,

:26:01.:26:04.

a proper consensus on a proper democratic constitution. Why not

:26:04.:26:09.

take part in the referendum, and at least register the size of

:26:09.:26:14.

opposition? This is an option, but when the whole thing, Jeremy, is

:26:14.:26:19.

illegitimate, when you have a document that defies and undermines

:26:19.:26:26.

your basic rights and freedom, you don't want to give legitimacy to a

:26:26.:26:29.

sham process. I have the constitution in front of me, it

:26:30.:26:32.

guarantees freedom, equality, freedom of expression, what is

:26:32.:26:37.

wrong with it? There is a lot wrong with it, Jeremy. If you look at

:26:37.:26:40.

freedom of religion, we want to make sure that everybody has the

:26:40.:26:46.

right to observe his belief. It is not there. It only talks about the

:26:46.:26:50.

three monolithic religions, if you talk about freedom of expression,

:26:50.:26:54.

it gives the permission to arrest people for their expressing their

:26:55.:27:01.

views. It makes the whole process hostage to religious institutions,

:27:01.:27:04.

rather than the judiciary. It is surely better than the constitution

:27:05.:27:09.

you had under Mubarak, isn't it? I'm not sure, actually. In some

:27:09.:27:12.

parts it is even worse than the constitution of President Mubarak,

:27:12.:27:17.

that is the irony of it. That's why you see the anger in the street.

:27:17.:27:21.

Because people, after this beautiful uprising, expected to see

:27:22.:27:26.

a real democratic constitution. That has a proper balance of power,

:27:26.:27:31.

that it has the freedom, the universal freedom, clearly

:27:31.:27:35.

recognised. In some parts, which I'm sad to say that, it is even

:27:35.:27:38.

worse than Mr Mubarak's constitution. Are you afraid of

:27:38.:27:44.

something akin to civil war? It is there, it looms on the horizon.

:27:44.:27:49.

That is why I'm calling on Mr Horsman and company, to make sure

:27:49.:27:52.

that they have to understand, they are not a majority, even if they

:27:52.:27:58.

are a majority, they are not at all. I think they are 20,-30% of the

:27:58.:28:02.

Egyptians. It is not right to impose your views, which is to say

:28:02.:28:05.

the least extremist views, that are not shared by the majority of the

:28:05.:28:09.

Egyptians, to the rest of the country. If you insist on doing

:28:09.:28:19.
:28:19.:28:20.

that, you are lead leaving -- leaving us no option than a head-on

:28:20.:28:23.

clash. There is nobody who wants that less than me. The economy will

:28:23.:28:28.

default in six months, security is not there, Sinai is a fertile

:28:28.:28:32.

ground for extremism, how on earth are we going to work through this

:28:32.:28:38.

without a proper dialogue. When you see how Mr Morsi is behaving, do

:28:38.:28:42.

you wish you had had stood for the presidency? Absolutely not. I would

:28:42.:28:44.

have stood for the presidency, Jeremy, if we had a proper

:28:44.:28:48.

constitution. The reason I didn't stand is to avoid being in where Mr

:28:48.:28:51.

Morsi right now, naturally I would not have been in his position, I

:28:51.:28:55.

would have acted differently, but you do not want to be a President

:28:55.:28:58.

in a situation when there is no rules of the game. I saw the other

:28:58.:29:03.

day that you had had referred to Mr Morsi as something like a Pharaoh,

:29:03.:29:10.

did you really mean that? Absolutely. He had, until yesterday,

:29:10.:29:13.

when he recinded some part of this constitutional declaration, he had

:29:13.:29:17.

call the powers, he had the executive power, the legislative

:29:17.:29:24.

power, and he and -- and he NUT turd the judiciary. It is something

:29:24.:29:30.

new in the whole world. I don't think -- newtered the judiciary, I

:29:30.:29:34.

think it is something new in the whole world. I don't think this is

:29:34.:29:39.

how you can rule a country in the 21st century. The country has been

:29:39.:29:42.

reduced to one single person. are laughing this off, but this is

:29:43.:29:46.

a very serious time for Egypt? is serious, it is serious for my

:29:46.:29:52.

family. My daughter, who lives in London, and who probably will be

:29:52.:29:55.

listening to me tonight is worried, my family are worried. I don't

:29:55.:29:58.

think they can go through with that. I think that would be the beginning

:29:58.:30:08.

of the end, frankly. We will stay in the Middle East for a while. In

:30:08.:30:11.

the end, all these apparently iterimable conflicts, which the

:30:11.:30:14.

rest of the world worries about until something else make as claim

:30:14.:30:19.

on their anxiety, are about human needs, emotional as much as

:30:19.:30:24.

material. Nowhere on earth, perhaps, matches Gaza, the shriller of land

:30:24.:30:29.

on the Mediterranean coast, left to -- sliver of land on the

:30:29.:30:32.

Mediterranean coast, left to the Palestinians. The Palestinians have

:30:32.:30:37.

now achieved a degree of recognition by the UN, much to

:30:37.:30:40.

Israel's fury, and Gazans have just emerged from a very one-sided

:30:40.:30:45.

conflict with their neighbour. What is it like to grow up and live in

:30:45.:30:50.

such an embattled society. We have been there speaking to two young

:30:50.:30:58.

Gazans. 5.00am in Gaza, barely even dawn.

:30:58.:31:05.

But time already to be stirring in one unlucky house.

:31:06.:31:12.

A mother's duty, to send her son to place she dreads.

:31:12.:31:17.

Though year by year it gets no easier.

:31:17.:31:22.

Tea, she hopes, will revive him. But that's not the first fix

:31:23.:31:31.

Mohammed needs to face the day. Elsewhere in Gaza, other hands are

:31:31.:31:39.

breaking bonds. They are ego Tory get to work.

:31:40.:31:44.

-- eager to get to work. Heading off towards the horizon, mad lean

:31:44.:31:50.

loves her job, but she -- mad da lean loves her job, but she, too,

:31:50.:31:55.

like Mohammed is caught in a web of restrictions she can't unravel.

:31:55.:32:04.

This is the story two of 18-year- olds. Forced to grow up before

:32:04.:32:10.

their time, in a tiny, teeming sliver of land, from which there is

:32:10.:32:13.

almost no escape. Gaza, blockaded by neighbours, Israel and Egypt,

:32:13.:32:17.

for the last five years, and at war again with Israel only last month,

:32:17.:32:26.

there is little room for childhood. Mohammed is resisting reality,

:32:26.:32:30.

today, as almost every day, he faces another gruelling and

:32:30.:32:35.

dangerous 12-hour shift in the smothering tunnelling between the

:32:35.:32:38.

Gazan and Egyptian border. TRANSLATION: This work is criminal

:32:38.:32:43.

work, no-one should do it. Have you ever seen anyone dig their own

:32:43.:32:50.

grave, their own grave with their own hands, while you are digging,

:32:50.:32:54.

that the tunnel might collapse at any time and kill you.

:32:54.:32:59.

But he must go, whatever the risk. Mohammed's father, with a bad back,

:33:00.:33:03.

hasn't worked for years. His mother, depends on her son to

:33:03.:33:10.

feed the family of eight. He is an adult now, just. But he

:33:10.:33:15.

has been working full-time in the tunnels since he was 14. Before

:33:15.:33:20.

that at many other jobs. TRANSLATION: I didn't have a

:33:20.:33:27.

childhood. When I was eight I worked as a porter at the border.

:33:27.:33:36.

Carrying luggage. Even when I was very young. I work as well as

:33:36.:33:46.
:33:46.:33:46.

studying. But then, I found there was no time to study. Madelene has

:33:46.:33:55.

had little time to study either. She's also her family's chief bread

:33:55.:34:02.

winner, and Gaza's only fisherwomen, it makes her job more complicated.

:34:02.:34:05.

TRANSLATION: I'm taking my gown out here, because the harbour is full

:34:05.:34:12.

of men and boys, and they follow me with their eyes.

:34:12.:34:15.

I get trouble from some fishermen, they are jealous of me, because I

:34:15.:34:19.

go out to sea and come back successfully.

:34:19.:34:24.

Sometimes they don't do so well. I get problems from the police too,

:34:24.:34:34.
:34:34.:34:35.

because I'm the only girl. They say it is forbidden, you can't go.

:34:35.:34:39.

But Madelene has gone any way, full-time for the last four years.

:34:39.:34:44.

Like her father, and grandfathers before.

:34:44.:34:50.

She is battling waves and politics. Israel, afraid of gun running,

:34:50.:34:54.

won't less Gazans fish far out. The ceasefire, after last month's

:34:54.:34:58.

conflict extended the limit, but only from three to six nautical

:34:58.:35:05.

miles. TRANSLATION: When they gave us

:35:05.:35:10.

another three miles, the catches got better, but in another few

:35:10.:35:16.

weeks the fish up to six miles will be used up to. There are a lot of

:35:16.:35:20.

fishermen and though go fishing all the time, most of the fish are

:35:20.:35:26.

beyond the new boundary. Today with a storm brewing she's not testing

:35:26.:35:31.

the limit, she might strike lucky close in shore, if the kid brother

:35:31.:35:38.

can scare the fish into the net. At Mohammed's house, 22 miles away,

:35:38.:35:42.

at the far end of the strip, work can be put off no longer.

:35:42.:35:52.
:35:52.:35:55.

Or not much longer. He's off to be a human mole.

:35:55.:36:04.

Another day. When a mother can only wait and pray.

:36:04.:36:07.

With 28% unemployment here, thousands like him have taken the

:36:07.:36:13.

road to the tunnels, since the blockade began. That was five years

:36:13.:36:18.

ago, when the armed Islamist movement, Hamas, came to power here.

:36:18.:36:23.

Now, the tunnels are a huge industry. One of the main

:36:23.:36:30.

industries in Gaza. The holes that honeycomb the sand beneath the

:36:30.:36:34.

border have become a mini-Klondike, the petrol pumped through, and the

:36:34.:36:40.

mugled goods swept away, supply Hamas, providing much of the

:36:40.:36:46.

Government's revenue. But the system depends on the cheap

:36:46.:36:51.

muscle of men like Mohammed. Not for nothing his mates call him "the

:36:51.:36:57.

untamed bull". He has drilled and dug many

:36:57.:37:00.

passages like this through the treacherous sand and mud, hundreds

:37:00.:37:05.

have been buried alive in recent years when they collapse. Suddenly,

:37:05.:37:11.

they are worried it is happening again now.

:37:11.:37:15.

Hear the distant thud, and look the power has gone off further down the

:37:15.:37:18.

tunnel. TRANSLATION: The electricity went

:37:18.:37:23.

off because the roof fell in. One prop slipped and took another with

:37:23.:37:31.

it, if anyone had been underneath, it would have killed them. Now they

:37:31.:37:41.
:37:41.:37:52.

have to switch the whole system off to try to repair it.

:37:52.:38:00.

It's almost dark too at sea, where Madelene has made a catch. A haul

:38:00.:38:06.

that will earn her perhaps 20 shekles, �3, it is nowhere near

:38:06.:38:14.

enough to cover the cost of the fuel for today's outing. Now the

:38:14.:38:17.

storm means no more fishing for a day or two. The family sit in the

:38:17.:38:23.

dark in one of Gaza's many power cuts, mending nets. And thinking

:38:23.:38:29.

about mending their gerry-built house, indirectly damaged last

:38:29.:38:35.

month, by Israeli rocket attacks. TRANSLATION: Look it is all broken.

:38:35.:38:41.

We have had to put some stuff on the roof. It is made of asbestos,

:38:41.:38:47.

the shockwaves from the blasts break everything. We are very close

:38:47.:38:55.

to military targets, so there are a lot of attacks around here.

:38:55.:39:00.

Elsewhere in Gaza, whole houses were destroyed. More than 160 lives

:39:00.:39:05.

were lost. Hamas says it won, mainly because a few rockets from

:39:05.:39:10.

here hit central Israel, and it tells the two thirds of Gazans,

:39:10.:39:14.

registered refugees, fugutives from what is now Israel or their

:39:14.:39:20.

descends, that one day they will go -- descendants, that one day they

:39:20.:39:24.

will go home. Madelene doesn't believe any of it? TRANSLATION:

:39:24.:39:28.

story of our home town ended a long time ago. It is a dream toe think

:39:28.:39:34.

we will ever return there. It is impossible.

:39:34.:39:38.

Whielt conflict goes on, so do the tunnels -- while the conflict goes

:39:38.:39:43.

on, so do the tunnels. Building materials must be smuggled, since

:39:43.:39:46.

Israel fears Hamas might use them for military infrastructure,

:39:46.:39:52.

weapons must be smuggled too. For the last two years, food and

:39:52.:39:56.

consumer goods have been let in legally, but they are cheaper

:39:56.:40:01.

brought in underground. Mohammed is taking break after repairing the

:40:01.:40:05.

breach, alongside a boy who looks younger than he was when he started.

:40:05.:40:12.

Then he's back to his main job, as beast of burden.

:40:12.:40:17.

The work so exhausting most tunnel workers take the painkiller

:40:17.:40:23.

tramadol. TRANSLATION: It is death work,

:40:23.:40:29.

exhausting, yesterday I walked 500ms carrying a carbon net, I was

:40:29.:40:33.

sweating all over. There is -- car bonnet, I was sweating all over.

:40:33.:40:37.

There is no ventilation down there, you feel you can't breathe, you

:40:37.:40:42.

can't carry on, that is why you take tablets. But Mohammed became

:40:42.:40:48.

addicted to Tramadol, it turned him into an invincible machine, then it

:40:48.:40:52.

sapped his strength, and used up all the money he was earning.

:40:52.:40:58.

TRANSLATION: I stopped eating, I stopped drinking anything. All I

:40:58.:41:03.

wanted was to take Tramadol and work like a donkey, it stopped

:41:03.:41:11.

working so well. So I increased the dose. Then, one day I collapsed in

:41:11.:41:20.

the tunnel, I was carrying a big sack of flour. I started having a

:41:20.:41:28.

hit fit, I lost consciousness, that is when I decided to quit. I didn't

:41:28.:41:33.

sleep for two months, I didn't talk to any human being. Two months, and

:41:33.:41:38.

I thought I would never come back to myself. Fits, anger, a lot of

:41:38.:41:43.

things happened to me, I hated myself, sometimes I wanted to

:41:43.:41:53.
:41:53.:41:55.

strangle myself to death. But now, thank God, I'm not using it.

:41:55.:41:59.

beach is where Mohammed spent much of his time as he overcame his

:41:59.:42:04.

addiction, and still the only place he says he can relax.

:42:04.:42:09.

TRANSLATION: The sea is my best friend, the only friend I can tell

:42:09.:42:14.

my problems to. In another life, he would like to be an airline pilot.

:42:14.:42:18.

But he knows that will never happen. Doesn't he feel bad that young

:42:18.:42:24.

people in other countries have a chance to study, and even to play?

:42:24.:42:29.

TRANSLATION: That's what I feel. Very much. Many times I have

:42:29.:42:35.

wondered why I couldn't be like them. Well-dressed, going to school,

:42:35.:42:40.

everything perfect, why it has to be like this for me, are they

:42:40.:42:45.

better than me. Madelene will have to marry soon, she has had lots of

:42:45.:42:49.

suitors already. But she and her father have said no

:42:49.:42:56.

to them all. TRANSLATION: I don't believe there will be anyone who

:42:56.:42:59.

will deserve Madelene and protect her. I don't think she will have a

:42:59.:43:05.

good future in this country. Our society is closed, very closed, and

:43:05.:43:11.

she's a free spirit. Her marriage may fail because here they don't

:43:11.:43:15.

respect independent women. As for Madelene herself, the sea is the

:43:15.:43:21.

only horizon that means much to her. TRANSLATION: I hope the sea will be

:43:21.:43:26.

open much more than six miles, and all the other gates to Gaza will be

:43:26.:43:29.

opened, and everyone will stop thinking, every time they hear a

:43:29.:43:35.

plane that there is going to be a rocket attack. But she's not very

:43:35.:43:39.

hopeful. Madelene, like Mohammed, was born in 1994. The year after

:43:39.:43:44.

the Oslo peace accords between Israel and the Palestinians. But

:43:44.:43:49.

neither she nor he, unlike their parents, has ever spoken to an

:43:49.:43:54.

Israeli, just think, she's older than the average Gazan, who is only

:43:54.:44:00.

TRANSLATION: I haven't lived long enough to know what will happen in

:44:00.:44:06.

the future. All I know is we are born into war, we live in war and

:44:06.:44:12.

we will die in war. Mohammed's vision of peace is

:44:12.:44:19.

narrow, all it means to him is escaping this underground hell.

:44:19.:44:24.

TRANSLATION: I hope the gates will open, and the tunnels will close,

:44:24.:44:29.

and there will be jobs so we can leave this kind of work. Everyone

:44:29.:44:35.

will be able to do whatever they want, but, as you see, nothing has

:44:36.:44:42.

changed. We haven't gained our victory yet.

:44:42.:44:48.

Gaza, as he says, is a place that can only live from day-to-day. With

:44:48.:44:54.

no light yet at the end of the tunnel.

:44:54.:45:00.

Tomorrow morning's front pages now. Many of them like the Telegraph are

:45:00.:45:06.

dominated by the photograph of the husband and daughter of the nurse

:45:06.:45:16.
:45:16.:45:29.

who apparently killed herself after That's it, excitement in the bird

:45:29.:45:33.

watching world, flocks of wax-wings about everywhere, seen from

:45:33.:45:38.

Lichfield to Lothian, they are like a small brown par the question,

:45:38.:45:46.

with red blobs like ceiling wax on their wings. They are visiting from

:45:46.:45:52.

points north. If there is an old wives tale, that lots of sightings

:45:52.:46:02.
:46:02.:46:23.

means a hard winter to come, it is rubbish, they are just hungry.

:46:23.:46:26.

# He'll say are you married # We'll say no man

:46:26.:46:32.

# But you can do the job when you're in town

:46:32.:46:35.

Hello, very cold tonight, a widespread frost, there will be

:46:35.:46:38.

icey patches in the morning, across eastern England, fog patches

:46:38.:46:42.

further west, and some of those will linger all day. Most places

:46:42.:46:46.

should brighten up nicely, see some sunshine, it will be a colder day

:46:46.:46:49.

than today. Down the eastern side of England, the wind not as strong

:46:49.:46:53.

as today. There should be more sunshine, fewer showers. Watch out

:46:53.:46:58.

for icey patches in the morning. A dusting of snow in one twor places.

:46:58.:47:03.

Further west some sun -- two places. Further west fog lingering all day.

:47:03.:47:08.

The like of the West Country, Somerset level, up across Worcester,

:47:08.:47:12.

the West Midlands and the Welsh marshes, together with parts of

:47:12.:47:16.

North West England, and around Cheshire. Northern Ireland should

:47:16.:47:20.

have sunshine, after some early patchy fog here. A similar story

:47:20.:47:24.

across Scotland, a cold, crisp winter's day sunshine for the most

:47:24.:47:28.

part T will feel cold. Temperatures tomorrow lower than today. It

:47:28.:47:31.

doesn't get much warmer on Wednesday either. Notice fog there,

:47:31.:47:35.

around Manchester still, on Tuesday. And it could be a bit of a problem

:47:35.:47:39.

on Wednesday as well. We have to find more fog, more freezing fog

:47:39.:47:43.

developing, again, very quickly on Tuesday evening. Tuesday neat, and

:47:43.:47:46.