22/01/2013 Newsnight


22/01/2013

Stories behind the headlines. Including army cuts, will the government seek a referendum on Europe, are women harder hit by recession? Should we eat mackerel? With Emily Maitlis.


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David Cameron will tomorrow promise a referendum on Europe, if the

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Tories win the next election. He plans to renegotiate terms with

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Europe, then ask the people if they want to be in or out. Our political

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editor has been given a preview. I've got the details of the pledges

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the Prime Minister will make tomorrow, and the stark language he

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will use. Also tonight, Britain has a proud

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military past, but does it have a feeble military future. Our

:00:36.:00:40.

ambition has always been great, but as the biggest single round of job

:00:41.:00:44.

losses to the Armed Forces is announced, are we now dangerously

:00:45.:00:50.

overstreched. If the world looks in ten or 20 years time as insecure as

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it does today, it may be a risk that comes home to bite you. Is it

:00:54.:00:57.

time we stopped the soaring rhetoric on defence and helping the

:00:57.:01:03.

world, and admit, we can't. And this: Well done. What women want,

:01:03.:01:07.

in the midst of a recession, and why they are usually the hardest

:01:07.:01:11.

hit. I would love to be able to give my

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daughter everything her friends have. It just makes me feel a bad

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parent, it makes me feel a failure in some ways.

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And, the superchef, Raymond Blanc, on why we should dig our heels in,

:01:25.:01:32.

and keep eating mackerel. In terms of nutrition, it has the best

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nutrition that you can possibly have.

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Hello, good evening. This programme has been told that first thing

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tomorrow, in a heavily-anticipated speech, the Prime Minister will

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offer a referendum on Europe, if the Conservatives win the 2015

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election. The Tories will set out a manifesto pledge to ask the British

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people for a mandate, to renegotiate a new settlement on

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European powers. It could then be taken to an in or out referendum.

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The details of the speech are being coming through to us -- have been

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coming through to us in the last minutes. We will ask a former

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European Prime Minister his thoughts on what we are about to

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hear in a moment. First Allegra Stratton joins us now.

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Tell us all, what are you hearing? First off, he kills the idea of a

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referendum now, as "a false choice", you need to renegotiate a

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referendum on the status quo out would be a false choice. The speech

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has plenty of rhetoric for both sides. It is forcefully euro-

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sceptic in place, but there is a lot of pro-European and flour rid

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praise. What are the politics? opposition say that having this

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referendum Britain sleepwalks towards the exit of Europe, because

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if renegotiation is not successful and not enough is brought back,

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people will say they will go out any way. David Cameron turns that

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language back on its opponents and says, opinion in this country is

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such that if you don't do something about it anger will rise, we need

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to put this question to the public and deal with it. The sleepwalking

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to the exit is the charge he lays at the door of opponents.

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Presumably concessions now to backbenchers? The most striking

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thing about the speech, besides rhetoric, is the quote here. What

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the euro-sceptics wanted was some binding legislation, such as any

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complexion of Government in 2015 would have to go in to the next few

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years pledging a referendum. He hasn't gone for binding legislation,

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but it is this idea that he would put through draft legislation

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towards the end of parliament, and if Conservatives are in Government

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they would act quickly and the referendum in the first half,

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2017/18. It is more than we expected, but I'm not sure it is

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far enough. On the home front, will they be happy with that? There is

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language that we have seen tonight that will make happy, let's

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remember there are euro-sceptics in his own cabinet, there is language

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for them. But then it is clear that the Prime Minister feels, and the

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next quote coming up, is that once he has got renegotiation, he will

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want that argue for an "in" vote. The language he then uses is very

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forcefully pro-European. Take us through that? The key things is,

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"over the coming months and years, I will not rest until the debate is

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won. For the future of my country. For the success of the European

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Union, and the prosperity of the generations to come ". Some said it

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was Churchillian in the words. will he say tomorrow? He will give

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us five principles, which includes the European Union moving on

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fairness, demonstration commitment to fairness and they are lofty and

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vague. He has avoided giving, what some people hoped, a scorecard, a

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check list of things he would bring back, if he can't bring them back,

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whether he has been successful or not. Instead, he has given us

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something, that could, in the fullness of time, end up being all

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things to all men. Fascinating stuff. We will get reaction to all

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that straight away. We can put that to the Tory MP George Eustace in a

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moment. We speak now to the former Prime Minister of Belgium, and

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currently an MEP. Good to have you on the programme, Mr Verhofstatt.

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We understand tomorrow that a Conservative Government would set

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an "in", "out "referendum on Europe after 2015, your response?

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basic idea of Mr Cameron that he wants to renegotiate individually

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the position of Britain inside the EU. I can tell you that it is

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impossible to have an inhe have stable renegotiation of the British

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position. Why? Because that would be the end of the European Union.

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If you start to give an individual status to every member-state, to

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the 27 member states of the union, that should be the end of the union,

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and the end of the single market. Because then the French could say,

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I want also something, and a status with no competition rules, because

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I don't like the competition rules. The Germans could say, we want a

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single market, but not for services. We like more a single market only

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in goods. So you see, that an individual renegotiation in the

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coming years of an individual country, for an individual status,

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is quite impossible. What shall happen is that after the next

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election in 2014, European elections, we shall see a

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collective renegotiation, because we need a more integrated Europe,

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and then Britain can choose, and the British population can choose,

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if they want to stay in or they want to get out. What you are

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saying, essentially, is everyone will be talking about renegotiation,

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not that Cameron can't, but that everybody will? Well, everybody

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knows that we need a more integrated Europe, certainly also

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to have a sustainable monetary union, a sustainable single

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currency. Everybody agrees to have after 2015 a debate on a more

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integrated Europe. What Mr Cameron is looking for is something quite

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different. My impression is that he is looking for what I call a

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second-class membership of the European Union. And a second-class

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membership is a bad thing for the interests of Great Britain. Because,

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as you know, it is like a little bit the status of Norway, and

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Switzerland. Countries who are paying for the European Union, but

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have no say in the European Union. And I think that's bad, bad and

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certainly not in the interests of the British industry and the

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British economy. Does that worry you now, do you think it will lead

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to a British exit? It is a very dangerous game that he is playing.

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At an individual renegotiation that is not possible, everybody knows

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that, because otherwise you have 27 member-states who are asking for

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that. What we can see is that he is sleepwalking to the door of a real

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exit of Great Britain. And I think that should be a very bad thing. As

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we know, 50% of the exports of the British economy are going to the

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continent. More than �158 billion pounds, that is the figure.

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What position should European leaders take now, when they hear

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these words, should they be helping him to stay in, helping him to

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renegotiate, or helping him to win a referendum? Or none of those?

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don't know, a referendum on what? Because he's, first of all, saying

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he wants to renegotiate the position, and then he shall have a

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referendum. It is like Lord Heseltine has said, we don't know

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what it is about. We don't know what even the question of the

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referendum shall be. Isn't it in Europe's interest to try to help

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him to renegotiate? What we need to do is to have a collective debate

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on this. A common debate on this, after or in 2015, how we can

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integrate more of Europe, how we can reform the European Union. How

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we can manage the single currency. How we can better combat and fight

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the crisis. But that is a totally different story than what is

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happening now. Let's be honest, what he's doing for the moment is

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to try to solve his problems that he has internally in the

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Conservative Party. Because he has a number of people in favour of

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Europe, and on the other hand he has euro-sceptics under the

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pressure of UKIP. The best way to understand what is happening now,

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the best way to understand what is happening is to listen to the

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American friends of Great Britain, they don't understand it.

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From the European perspective, if he comes and says we need to

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renegotiate the emergency break for financial services, or repatriation

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of powers for the Working Time Directive, or policing opt-out,

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will European leaders be at all prepared to listen to that, or will

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they say no, no, no? I think they shall say no. And they shall say a

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second thing, Mr Cameron wait a little bit, come back in 2015, when

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we shall negotiate a new basic Europe, going in the direction of

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more integrated Europe, then you ask the British people if they are

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in favour origins. Very good to talk to you. Guy

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Verhofstadt, thank you. As we mentioned we have George Eustace,

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Conservative MP, who fronts a group of MPs campaigning for the new UK-

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EU relationship. First your response to this, you heard very

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clearly from a former Belgian Prime Minister, that there is no chance

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of a renegotiation, it takes you straight to in or out? I don't

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agree with that. We needed a much more mature debate about this. It

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is really not acceptable for other countries to say we refuse to talk

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to Britain, we are going to put our head in the hands, or even engage

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on these issues. His point is if Britain does it everyone else will?

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And we want them all to, there will be a new treaty, I think, towards

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the end of 2014, 2015. When every country in Europe will be talking

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about how to sort this mess out. How do we make the European Union

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fit for purpose in the 21st sent treatment those trapped in the euro

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it may involve deeper integration and co-ordination of tax policies.

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For those of us outside we may take powers back. We need a grown-up

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debate about that, and not get into the idea that we won't even talk

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about it. Let's get back to square one, we now know that tomorrow

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morning, roughly 8.15, or whatever. We are going to have a commitment

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from a Conservative Prime Minister, to a referendum, should that have a

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red line around it for any future coalition? Look, David Cameron will

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tomorrow set out a Conservative view. A commitment for the next

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parliament, what a Conservative Government would do. I'm very clear

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on that. Is it something you would put a red line around, saying under

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no circumstances can that be given away or compromised? I would, but

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we're going format turt next time. Getting into what -- for maturity

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next time. Getting into what might happen, we want what can be

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renegotiated in the next election. You could be in the same position

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and he would have to decide whether that was something he absolutely

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pledged to do, straight down from the manifesto, or whether that was

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something that reemerged in a coalition manifesto, that was

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watered down? It's possible. This is the first coalition Government

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this country has had for many years. The reality is we need people, it

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might entertain other parties at the moment, to really focus their

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mind and think if you do want a resettlement with Europe and a

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referendum, you have to get behind David Cameron and support what he

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says tomorrow. It was starkly laid out from Guy Verhofstadt, this idea

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that the whole of Europe will be renegotiated, maybe there are lots

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of things that lots of countries have to renegotiate, would that be

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enough? I think it is absolutely fine. It is what we want to see.

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There are other countries that have problems with aspects of European

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policy. Germany is in graech of many of the home affairs directives

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at the moment, and the data retention directive, they want to

:13:41.:13:45.

get rid of that. Let's have a grown-up discussion about bits we

:13:45.:13:50.

want to get rid of. There is no problem with that. You heard the

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no-no-no from Brussels, a second ago, if that is the end result, if

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throughout all the months and effort of renegotiation that

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doesn't happen, would you change your position on EU membership and

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say, sorry, it's time for out? will see what happens. But I don't

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think we should tolerate that kind of no-no-no attitude. You have

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heard the views of one Belgian MEP, there are many others. A former

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Prime Minister, a leader. Tomorrow you will hear the views of a

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current British Prime Minister, and one of the major countries in the

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European Union, it is our European Union as much as anyone else's, we

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shouldn't be afraid to advance our views about the future and what

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should be done about its failures. Unless it confronts its failures it

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doesn't have a future. At a time when the Government is talking

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about the urgent need for growth, he will commit us to five years of

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instability, with major trading partners? I don't agree with that.

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People say this about the euro debate, there was uncertainty that

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Britain didn't want to join the euro, and all the Japanese and

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American investors would leave t didn't happen. It is not true.

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There are many businesses who would like to see Paris come back on

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things like employment and social policy which would improve our

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competitiveness. You heard your no- no-no was not welcomed or tolerated

:15:10.:15:16.

here. Do you care if Britain leaves the EU? It is a very bad thing for

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the European Union. It is a very bad thing for the single market.

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But it is certainly a very bad thing for Great Britain itself. As

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I already indicated, the interest of Great Britain is to be inside

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the single market, and inside the European Union. And may fear is

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that what Mr Cameron is doing now, is creating uncertainty for years

:15:37.:15:41.

and for years. In this important position of the British economy

:15:41.:15:46.

inside the European Union. All this, for what? In fact, I hear it very

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well, it is a political game, it is a game inside the Conservative

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Party. If you vote for us, then you can have a referendum. So that's

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clear enough. It is a political game, not in the interests of the

:15:55.:15:58.

country, I think. Very interesting to hear from both

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of you. Thank you very much.

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There is no avoiding war, it can only be postponed to the advantage

:16:05.:16:10.

of others, wrote Machiavelli, a ruler presumably untroubled by a

:16:10.:16:14.

third round of defence spending cuts. Just hours after the Prime

:16:14.:16:19.

Minister warned of a new front of Islamist Tory terror, he announced

:16:19.:16:23.

what will ultimately bring the avoidance of war, or strategic

:16:23.:16:29.

defence, cuts to army numbers. The Government believes the numbers of

:16:29.:16:34.

5,300 soldiers to lose their jobs as it plans to reduce the army by a

:16:34.:16:39.

fifth. How will Britain, who likes to see itself in the vanguard of

:16:39.:16:46.

defence, see itself. The rhetoric of liberalal interventionism

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falling victim to dwindling resources. Draw-downs and

:16:51.:16:56.

mobilisations would come as no surprise to the old war horses, who

:16:56.:17:02.

stare down Whitehall, war, economic depression were well understood to

:17:02.:17:05.

them. Today's bugetry battlefield is different. The cuts are

:17:05.:17:09.

happening at a time of considerable global instability, and there is

:17:09.:17:13.

precious little left to trim. What I think many of us are

:17:13.:17:17.

concerned about is with the significant reduction of the

:17:17.:17:23.

regular army from 10 2,000 down to 28,000, although mitigated by

:17:23.:17:27.

30,000, if we can get them, trained and recruited reservists, that

:17:27.:17:33.

might be all right. It does carry a fair degree of risk. If the world

:17:33.:17:36.

looks in 10-20 years time as insecure as it does today, it may

:17:36.:17:41.

be a risk that comes home to bite us. After Waterloo the army was cut

:17:41.:17:46.

back drastically, to less than half the 82,000 that represents the

:17:46.:17:50.

Government's new target. But you have to go back to the Crimea in

:17:50.:17:56.

the 1850s to find the last time the army of that size. Then old

:17:56.:18:00.

soldiers could be pensioned off without ceremony. But the cut of

:18:01.:18:04.

5,300, announced today, will require many compulsory

:18:04.:18:08.

redundancies. And these days, that requires careful political

:18:08.:18:13.

management. Whilst we need to make up to 5,300

:18:13.:18:18.

army personnel redundant, the programme will not adversely affect

:18:18.:18:22.

operations in Afghanistan. As with previous tranches, there are a

:18:22.:18:27.

number of important exclusions from the programme. Critically, those

:18:27.:18:31.

preparing for, deployed on or recovering from operations on the

:18:31.:18:36.

18th of June will be exempt from this tranche. But the Commons

:18:36.:18:39.

announcement has triggered attacks from the opposition. This is really

:18:39.:18:42.

difficult news for the members of the British army and their families,

:18:42.:18:46.

a really dark day for them, the fact that some will be sacked, who

:18:46.:18:51.

don't volunteer for redundancy. I think it hasn't been handled probr

:18:51.:18:56.

properly there is a promise that the -- properly. There is a promise

:18:56.:19:00.

that the gap will be filled with reservist, we support the idea of

:19:00.:19:03.

reservists, the idea that business is ready to employ that number of

:19:03.:19:06.

reservists and allow them to be released for military service in a

:19:06.:19:09.

way that will be demanded in the future, isn't really prepared yet.

:19:09.:19:13.

The MoD may have been at pains to point out those patrolling

:19:13.:19:17.

Afghanistan won't be sacked, but there are unanswered questions

:19:17.:19:22.

about just how soon after their return they might become eligible

:19:22.:19:26.

for compulsory redundancy? And the effect, in units where people have

:19:26.:19:30.

been risking their lives is not good.

:19:30.:19:36.

I think there is a real resentment amongst those soldiers, that now

:19:36.:19:39.

they find themselves having done all of this time, put in all of

:19:39.:19:43.

this risk to their own lives, suddenly finding redundancies being

:19:43.:19:47.

foisted upon them. Their own regiments, regiments that have

:19:47.:19:51.

fought bravely for the last several years, being disbanded. I think

:19:51.:19:54.

that is quite a hard and difficult pill to swallow. All three services

:19:54.:20:00.

are being cut, but the army, by most. And the desire to reduce

:20:00.:20:06.

compulsory redundancies has fed critical skills shortages.

:20:06.:20:10.

Intelligence corps linguists and interrogators are 55% below

:20:10.:20:14.

strength. Electronic warfare operators, 45%. And drone pilots

:20:14.:20:19.

45% too. But compulsory sackings will still

:20:19.:20:25.

be necessary, and that's hit morale. It is a major leadership challenge,

:20:25.:20:29.

and the current chief of the general staff and his subordinates,

:20:29.:20:34.

will have to manage very kairlly the morale of the army -- carefully

:20:34.:20:38.

the morale of the army of today, to make sure it stays focused and with

:20:38.:20:41.

its job in hand and maintain high morale. On the frontline in

:20:41.:20:48.

Afghanistan, this won't be a problem, until we drew from there,

:20:48.:20:50.

-- withdrew from there, because people are clear of the job they

:20:50.:20:54.

are doing. But at home people will be wondering if they will be in the

:20:55.:20:58.

next redundancy pool and will the job last. There is a challenge

:20:58.:21:02.

there. Is the Government entering into new commitments at a time of

:21:02.:21:05.

deep defence cuts. Downing Street and the MoD insist they don't want

:21:05.:21:10.

to send large numbers of combat troops, or fighter aircraft to Mali,

:21:10.:21:16.

let alone place like Syria. But if that is the case, it does beg the

:21:16.:21:19.

question, whether announcements such as yesterday's, of a new

:21:19.:21:24.

strategic approach in North Africa, really amount to all that much. In

:21:24.:21:28.

the past too there were Governments that tried to steer clear of

:21:28.:21:32.

foreign entanglements, but time and again events frustrated their

:21:32.:21:35.

calculation. For the current cuts to be made without risk, Britain

:21:35.:21:38.

would have to step back from military intervention overseas, for

:21:38.:21:48.
:21:48.:21:49.

many years to come. Joining me now are General Sir Mike Jackson, Lord

:21:49.:21:53.

West, Security Minister under the last Government, and the

:21:53.:21:58.

Conservative MP Penny Mordant, who is a Navy reservist and sits on the

:21:58.:22:04.

Commons Select Committee. Is a smaller army a worse army?

:22:04.:22:07.

necessarily, the question I would ask, it was raised at the end of

:22:07.:22:11.

the clip you showed, is the language used by the Prime Minister,

:22:11.:22:15.

this interventionist language, a bit spooky, rather like Tony Blair

:22:15.:22:17.

really, it doesn't sit well with the pressure there is on the

:22:17.:22:20.

defence budget. One would have thought after the Strategic Defence

:22:20.:22:25.

and Security Review, in 2010, when a lot of us warned that there was

:22:25.:22:28.

no allowance for strategic shock, we then had the Arab awakening, or

:22:28.:22:31.

spring, whatever you want to call it, immediately the Prime Minister

:22:32.:22:37.

got us involved in Libya, with all of the pressures it had, a tiny

:22:37.:22:40.

operation, you would have thought the National Security Council and

:22:40.:22:42.

Prime Minister would have said, we need to review this. Instead we

:22:42.:22:47.

have just had another �1.3 billion worth of cuts. Surely you can't

:22:47.:22:53.

talk the talk, and walk the walk, unless you are spending the money.

:22:53.:22:56.

How does the Government reconcile that, this talk of a generational

:22:56.:22:59.

struggle with Islamist terrorists, which David Cameron made just

:22:59.:23:05.

yesterday, and then these cuts? think one thing that is forgotten

:23:05.:23:09.

in this debate, is it is not only the headlines that you see in

:23:09.:23:12.

Afghanistan and what happens in North Africa, it is also the day-

:23:12.:23:16.

to-day work the Armed Forces do. I'm sure Lord West would agree,

:23:16.:23:23.

keeping our trade in the sea open. We desperately need to maintain

:23:23.:23:28.

those capabilities. We don't need it to be smaller, then? We have to

:23:28.:23:32.

retain investment in. There but would have been crazy is to carry

:23:32.:23:36.

on with the defence budget that was massively oversubscribed, and not

:23:36.:23:39.

balance the books and come up with radical ways of how we can get

:23:39.:23:43.

better value out of the defence budget. Reservists is one way of

:23:43.:23:46.

doing that. We will have to maintain spending. The Prime

:23:46.:23:50.

Minister said yesterday, and we have been doing this, is putting

:23:50.:23:54.

money into actually preventing crises from happening. The books

:23:54.:23:59.

aren't balanced, are they? They are, when we came into office. Force

:23:59.:24:04.

2020 needs a 1% increase from 2015, and the Treasury have only allowed

:24:04.:24:08.

a 1% increase in procurement budget? When we came into power,

:24:08.:24:12.

and you take the overspend on programmes and the fiscal reality

:24:12.:24:16.

added in, the deficit was �74 billion, that is on the figures, we

:24:16.:24:20.

have to close that gap. The people that get short changed if we don't

:24:20.:24:24.

do that, are the Armed Forces. We short change them in kit, and we

:24:24.:24:30.

short change them in training. General Sir Mike Jackson, if the

:24:30.:24:33.

army is 82,000, are there things it cannot do with that number. What

:24:33.:24:37.

does it rule out? I don't think it rules out anything, it is how the

:24:37.:24:42.

army is structured. I would wish to actually stand back a little from

:24:42.:24:46.

the ding-dong over this amount of money and that. There are strategic

:24:46.:24:54.

choices here. Modern day politics is largely about consumption, today.

:24:54.:24:59.

I understand that. It is the stuff of day-to-day politics. But, and I

:24:59.:25:03.

think the Prime Minister has flagged this up. We are looking at

:25:04.:25:09.

not only the last decade, but arguably problems over the next

:25:09.:25:14.

decade or two. I think when you look at it in that way, it probably

:25:14.:25:21.

is time to just step back, not a billion pound here and there but to

:25:21.:25:25.

step back and, perhaps, revisit that strategic review, which was

:25:25.:25:31.

done, what, two and a bit years ago. I'm not sure that the balance is

:25:32.:25:35.

there. That's what I said t needs to be

:25:35.:25:38.

reviewed. Interestingly, he talks about the generational thing

:25:38.:25:42.

against terrorism, when I took over as Security Minister in 2007, you

:25:42.:25:46.

filmed me, the BBC, and I said, this is a generational campaign,

:25:46.:25:51.

this will go on for 30 years, and so he knew the, we knew the sort of

:25:51.:25:54.

investment that was needed. You are always going to be out of date,

:25:54.:25:57.

with something like a defence budget, you can't possibly know the

:25:57.:26:00.

wars you will be fighting? whole point of the defence budget

:26:00.:26:03.

is to make sure we have a spectrum of capablities to meet the

:26:04.:26:09.

unexpected. That's it, the only thing we have consistently had with

:26:09.:26:12.

our defence strategy is we have failed to predict the next threat.

:26:12.:26:17.

And that is a very sensible basis on which to go forward. Quite, I

:26:17.:26:20.

criticise the SDSR for not being strategic enough, but when people

:26:20.:26:25.

want to go and reopen the SDSL, what they are saying is they want

:26:25.:26:30.

to reevaluate the budget. I'm sorry you have to get the horse and cart

:26:30.:26:34.

in the right order. What we have to do is get more out of the budget,

:26:34.:26:39.

and ask questions like, how do we afford future surface fleet. Maybe

:26:39.:26:43.

the questions we should be asking now, is that our rhetoric is wrong,

:26:43.:26:47.

we shouldn't think of ourselves as this interventionist power that has

:26:47.:26:51.

to save the world? That is a strategic political choice as to

:26:51.:26:55.

whether we think in those terms or not. Maybe the public would like

:26:55.:26:59.

that now, maybe that is what they want, ten years of not being

:26:59.:27:03.

interventionist? If one looks at our little global village, actually

:27:03.:27:06.

that stability around the world is very important to our country. We

:27:06.:27:12.

are the fifth-richest country in the world, we run all world

:27:12.:27:15.

shipping from the this country, we need that stability in the world.

:27:15.:27:21.

The Americans are retraench trenching, they are pivoting

:27:21.:27:26.

towards the Pacific. There is much more we could be doing. We need to

:27:26.:27:30.

think much more long-term about how we afford our future capabilities.

:27:30.:27:35.

Lord West is right, if you look at how much of our fuel comes by sea,

:27:36.:27:40.

90% of everything in the viewers' living room will have come to this

:27:40.:27:45.

country by sea. David Cameron once called himself a liberal

:27:45.:27:48.

Conservative, he didn't want to be convening necessarily in the

:27:48.:27:51.

affairs of the world. Now, there is more the language of Blair, he

:27:51.:27:55.

sounds as if he's more committed to the rest of the world? You are

:27:55.:27:58.

putting this almost in party political terms. Cameron speaks

:27:58.:28:02.

like Blair, we should get away from this. That is not party political

:28:02.:28:07.

is it? It might just be that strategic circumstances hold

:28:07.:28:11.

whichever Government is in power. And you have to come to terms with

:28:11.:28:16.

those strategic circumstances. need to be investing in

:28:16.:28:18.

capabilities that prevent stuff from happening, as well as enabling

:28:18.:28:23.

us to respond where we want to. One of my criticisms of the SDSR is it

:28:23.:28:27.

cut our carrier capability. When the carriers come back into

:28:27.:28:30.

Portsmouth, that will be a massive deterrent to things happening, as

:28:30.:28:34.

well as helping us to respond to conflict and humanitarian

:28:34.:28:39.

situations. It is the need to meet the unexpective, that is the thing,

:28:39.:28:44.

none of us can predict, the thing that happens tomorrow is something

:28:44.:28:47.

none of us predicted. Bill Clinton, out one day on the campaign trail

:28:48.:28:51.

is reported to have boasted about the 20 million or so jobs he

:28:51.:28:55.

created when he was heckled by a middle-aged woman in the crowd, who,

:28:55.:29:00.

the story goes, "yes Mr President and I have three of them". The tale

:29:00.:29:03.

illustrates a well-trodden truth, women often have the worst paid

:29:04.:29:08.

jobs in the economy, and are often the carers too. Tonight we look at

:29:08.:29:12.

the real picture behind the downturn on what was predicted to

:29:12.:29:16.

be the women's recession, and has how much has come to past. We will

:29:16.:29:20.

look at the broader picture in a moment. First we visited St

:29:21.:29:28.

Leonards. Sun lit before snowfall, St

:29:28.:29:34.

Leonards presents a grand face to the world, prosperous even. But

:29:34.:29:38.

appearances deceive. The seasonal nature of employment along the East

:29:38.:29:43.

Sussex coast means that this time of year the list of jobless is even

:29:43.:29:50.

longer than usual. Paula Charlesworth moved to St Leonards

:29:50.:29:54.

after her husband died. She describes herself as desperate to

:29:54.:29:58.

work, but with a young daughter to bring up she needs a job that fits

:29:58.:30:04.

with school hours. In the meantime, she volunteers five days a week at

:30:04.:30:08.

this mental health charity. I would love to go out to earn money,

:30:09.:30:14.

because I want to come off benefits, but the jobs round here, you either

:30:14.:30:20.

have to work late nights or weekends, as you are a lone parent

:30:20.:30:24.

what do you do with a child under the age of 15. Weekends are the

:30:24.:30:28.

only time I get to spend quality time with my daughter, I don't want

:30:28.:30:38.
:30:38.:30:39.

to work weekends. Paula relies on her widowed parents

:30:39.:30:45.

pension to bring up 12-year-old Jocelyn. Money is a struggle, and

:30:45.:30:49.

she has felt the rise in fuel and heating bills. I would love to give

:30:49.:30:53.

my daughter everything her friends have, I can't. Most of what both of

:30:53.:30:57.

us wear is charity clothes. I can't afford to go to the shops and buy

:30:57.:31:01.

her stuff when she grows out of them. She is only 12, she is

:31:01.:31:07.

growing all the time. It just makes me feel a bad parent, it makes me

:31:07.:31:12.

feel a failure in some ways. It sounds silly, I know. But I cannot

:31:12.:31:19.

provide for her the way I would like to. How to provide for their

:31:19.:31:24.

babies is on the minds of these young mum, living at a support unit

:31:24.:31:28.

in Milton Keynes. They stay here for up to two years, the idea is

:31:28.:31:33.

for them to live independently. But while they all want to work, they

:31:33.:31:36.

know they are facing a difficult economy.

:31:36.:31:40.

I want to start youth work, so, obviously, I have to work to get

:31:40.:31:44.

the job that I want. But if I was just to go out and try to get any

:31:44.:31:47.

job, it is so difficult at the moment. My partner is trying to

:31:47.:31:52.

work, and it is impossible. didn't plan to have a baby, but now

:31:52.:31:56.

having a baby it has changed my life, and you work for her, and you

:31:56.:32:00.

don't just want to rely on the benefits to provide for her, then

:32:00.:32:03.

you can't provide for yourself either. You want to be able to do

:32:03.:32:09.

it for yourself. Rather than rely on other people.

:32:09.:32:16.

Of the �18.9 billion cuts announce in the coalition Government's

:32:16.:32:21.

Emergency Budget in 2010, �13.2 billion comes from women's incomes,

:32:21.:32:26.

while �5.7 billion, 30%, is taken from men's incomes. Meaning women

:32:26.:32:31.

are being hit by austerity measures twice as hard.

:32:31.:32:35.

The mums unit is run by one of the largest housing associations in the

:32:35.:32:41.

country. It finds that many of its female tenants, in particular, are

:32:41.:32:48.

fearful. Women represent two thirds of low-paid workers, they are

:32:48.:32:53.

juggling, quite a lot of them, low- paid work, with childcare, some of

:32:53.:32:58.

them are caring for other dependants, and I think that

:32:58.:33:03.

combination of how to look after the kids, how to manage the money,

:33:03.:33:07.

how to perhaps juggle other responsibilities in terms of

:33:07.:33:10.

parents, or other people that they are caring for, means they are

:33:11.:33:16.

particularly badly hit. But it is an impact felt by both

:33:16.:33:22.

sexes. A few years ago we were told the downturn would create a

:33:22.:33:28.

"woman's" recession, the vice-like combination of cuts in public

:33:28.:33:32.

sector jobs, and spending cuts generally, would affect women the

:33:32.:33:37.

most. As the economy has bumped along the bottom, a slightly

:33:37.:33:41.

different picture has emerged, there is some areas where men are

:33:41.:33:44.

worse off. More women are employed by the public sector, so they are

:33:44.:33:49.

hit by both pay freezes and job cuts. But, the first industries to

:33:49.:33:53.

contract in the recession, financial and construction, are

:33:53.:34:00.

male-dominated, and they remain depressed. Labour figures for last

:34:00.:34:03.

July to September suggest that of those working part-time, men are

:34:03.:34:10.

more likely than women to want to work extra hours. Around 35% of

:34:10.:34:14.

male part-timers said they would like to work more hours, compared

:34:14.:34:21.

to 21% of part-time female workers. For both sexes, underemployment sup,

:34:21.:34:25.

when the economic downturn started five years ago, those figures stood

:34:25.:34:31.

at 25% of male part-timers, and 16% of part-time female workers. Right

:34:31.:34:35.

across the board men tend to do worse, this hasn't changed during

:34:35.:34:40.

the recession and the austerity period. Men have higher

:34:40.:34:46.

unemployment, they have higher inactivity rates, they face more

:34:46.:34:49.

redundancies, on all these indicators, women do slightly

:34:49.:34:54.

better than men. But outside the labour market, women who make up

:34:54.:34:58.

two thirds of the lowest paid, and make greater use of public services,

:34:58.:35:06.

stand to lose more. Figures from the TUC show that by 2016/17, the

:35:06.:35:11.

highest 10% of earners will lose services that are worth 2.5% of

:35:11.:35:17.

their income. But the bottom 10% will lose the equivalent of almost

:35:17.:35:21.

32% of their income. A far greater impact.

:35:21.:35:26.

It is very hard for low earners, who are disproportionately affected

:35:26.:35:30.

by those sorts of reductions in income, people are already having

:35:30.:35:34.

to make choices between whether they spend their money on food, or

:35:34.:35:38.

whether they put the heating on. For Paula, as for many on the

:35:38.:35:42.

lowest incomes, it is a time of uncertainty and fear for the future.

:35:43.:35:48.

In the absence of a job, she will carry on volunteering. I want to

:35:48.:35:52.

get off benefit, I want to be able to pay my way. I always have done,

:35:52.:35:57.

ever since I left school. I like working. So being here gives me

:35:57.:36:03.

that joy back, it makes me feel useful, and I like being useful.

:36:03.:36:07.

Some views in the film. With me is Ceri Goddard, the chief executive

:36:07.:36:16.

of Women rights Organisation, the Fawcett Society, and Margo James, a

:36:16.:36:21.

Conservative MP who was until recently the vice-chair forwomen in

:36:21.:36:25.

her party. Broadly, women have been hit harder because they have lost

:36:25.:36:29.

more from public sector jobs? I think that women are

:36:29.:36:33.

overrepresented in the public sector, and also among low-paid

:36:33.:36:39.

work as well. So, and the fact that they are more reliant on benefits

:36:39.:36:45.

than men. I think it does potentially give rise to a cocktail

:36:45.:36:48.

of disadvantage for women. That's absolutely true, which the

:36:48.:36:52.

Government have tried their best to mitigate, but it is the structural

:36:53.:36:56.

problems going back decades, really. It is interesting, because you say

:36:56.:37:00.

they have tried to mitigate, it is things like the welfare cut, the

:37:00.:37:04.

benefits cuts, that are hitting women at a time when certainly the

:37:04.:37:10.

Conservatives can't afford to lose them? The trouble is, the

:37:10.:37:14.

Department of Work and Pension, benefits and pensions, make up a

:37:14.:37:18.

third of all Government spending, so if we are to restore the balance

:37:18.:37:22.

in the economy between the public and the private sector, and get the

:37:22.:37:26.

finances back under some control, and reduce the deficit, we have to

:37:26.:37:30.

cut money from where it is spent. It is spent in large quantities on

:37:30.:37:34.

the welfare and benefits system. Ceri Goddard, would you disagree

:37:34.:37:38.

with any of that? I would certainly disagree with the point that the

:37:39.:37:42.

Government is doing its utmost to mitigate the situation of women. I

:37:42.:37:47.

think that we need to be clear, everybody agrees the deficit needs

:37:47.:37:50.

to be reduce, but it is a political choice that the austerity approach

:37:50.:37:55.

is to take 80% from cuts and 20% from taxes. It has been well known

:37:55.:38:01.

in prior to the Comprehensive Spending Review, that would

:38:01.:38:05.

massively disproportionately impact women. The last financial statement

:38:05.:38:14.

said over 8% of 80% of cuts comes from women's pockets. We are not

:38:14.:38:17.

seeing a clear Government strategy to mitigate that. This is not a

:38:17.:38:22.

structure here for decades, this is an additional inequality created by

:38:22.:38:25.

the austerity approach. This is something the Government has to

:38:25.:38:28.

solve, this is not the labour market itself, or women having to

:38:28.:38:33.

be more flexible, for example? I think it is a combination of both.

:38:33.:38:36.

We had preexisting economies in the labour market and the economy

:38:36.:38:41.

before the recession, women were in more low-paid jobs and earned less.

:38:41.:38:45.

Because of that we were forced -- we in the Fawcett Society and

:38:46.:38:48.

campaigners were concerned in considering the deficit the

:38:48.:38:52.

Government policies didn't make the situation worse unnecessarily. So,

:38:53.:38:56.

of course, Government policy is critical, and Government also needs

:38:56.:39:00.

it take a lead in terms of how gender-sensitive its policies are.

:39:00.:39:03.

But also businesses themselves, and the private sector, need to do more.

:39:03.:39:07.

Currently the Government policy is to, for the private sector to pick

:39:07.:39:10.

up these lost jobs from the public sector. If that's going to be the

:39:10.:39:14.

case, are they going to tackle the fact that the private sector pay

:39:14.:39:17.

gap is twice the public sector. guess you could say if they are

:39:17.:39:21.

going to pick up those jobs, and that hasn't happened to the extent

:39:21.:39:28.

it was meant to, do women have to be more accepting, for example, of

:39:28.:39:32.

the overtime? That was a very string statistic that came out, not

:39:32.:39:36.

surprise -- interesting statistic that came out, not surprising, when

:39:36.:39:41.

women were asked, because they are carers with homes and families to

:39:41.:39:45.

run more often to say no to overtime, does that have to change?

:39:45.:39:48.

There are more part-time jobs in the economy, which suit a lot of

:39:48.:39:51.

women from. Your film only 25% of the women who were working part-

:39:51.:39:56.

time actually wanted to work more hours. As you say, it's a good way

:39:56.:40:00.

of balancing caring responsibilities with work, being

:40:00.:40:04.

able to work part-time if you want to. And fewer men want to work

:40:04.:40:07.

part-time? Fewer machine want to work part-time. I think it is

:40:07.:40:10.

important -- men want to work part- time. It is important to remember

:40:10.:40:14.

on a positive note that there are over a million new jobs in the

:40:14.:40:17.

private sector created in the last two years. We have record numbers

:40:17.:40:21.

of women in employment as a result of that. I think the part-time

:40:21.:40:26.

point is really interesting, actually. On the one hand you have

:40:26.:40:30.

a lot more single mothers, as we were looking at in the film, who

:40:30.:40:34.

are looking for more part-time work, but they are finding less of that,

:40:34.:40:36.

because those part-time positions are being cut from the public

:40:36.:40:39.

sector, there are less of them in the private sector. Yes, we can

:40:39.:40:45.

focus on the 75% of women who want part-time work, but there is a

:40:45.:40:48.

massive increase in women's underemployment. In women who want

:40:48.:40:53.

to work more than part-time, but can't. Let's not forget the 25-year

:40:53.:40:58.

high in women's unemployment. Over a million women who want to work at

:40:58.:41:01.

all, part-time or full-time, who cannot get a job. That has

:41:01.:41:06.

increased 14% since 2010. The unemployment rate for men has gone

:41:06.:41:13.

down 3%, it is not accurate. Very briefly? Briefly, we have 250,000

:41:13.:41:18.

more women in work since 2010. That's because there is more women

:41:18.:41:25.

coming of age. I think that is a positive note on which to end.

:41:25.:41:28.

Just to tell you, we will have more on David Cameron's Europe speech in

:41:28.:41:31.

a moment. That is coming up with Allegra

:41:31.:41:37.

Stratton. If the mackerel had held on to its

:41:37.:41:39.

ancient name, scomberomorus commerson, it is doubtful anyone

:41:39.:41:45.

would have got their tongues round ordering it enough -- to order it

:41:46.:41:51.

enough for the fish to be in peril, the fish may be spurned again when

:41:51.:41:55.

it became the latest endangered species on the Marine Conservation

:41:55.:42:05.
:42:05.:42:08.

Society list. This is not only one of the most elegantly formed but

:42:08.:42:12.

beautifully coloured fishes taken out of the sea we have. Mrs Beeton

:42:12.:42:17.

loved mackerel, and it is a huge part of the diet on these islands.

:42:17.:42:21.

If you had mackerel tonight, that heartburn you are feeling may be

:42:21.:42:26.

guilt, yes, guilt, because the little Big Mack is under threat.

:42:26.:42:29.

people fish the way they are at the moment the stock will be

:42:29.:42:32.

unsustainable in the future. The stock is downwards, although it is

:42:32.:42:36.

currently at a sustainable level. That is all very well, the trouble

:42:36.:42:40.

is no-one has told the fish. They weren't finished, they have just

:42:40.:42:45.

gone away for a bit. So says a chef with two Michelen stars to his

:42:45.:42:53.

credit. There is huge shoals of mackerel, we have swum right up to

:42:53.:43:00.

the islands because there is better food. For food, they don't know the

:43:00.:43:02.

customs between Great Britain and Iceland, they don't know, they just

:43:02.:43:09.

want better food. If it had a transparent silvery hue, the flesh

:43:09.:43:14.

is good, if it is red about the head, it is steal.

:43:14.:43:20.

# I want some seafood mamma They know their fish and seafood at

:43:20.:43:24.

this wet fish shop here in North London. You know they are running

:43:24.:43:28.

out of mackerel, there aren't enough? We heard about it. But what

:43:28.:43:33.

are we going to do about it. Eatless of it? To eat less?, no we

:43:33.:43:37.

love it, we can't eat less, it is wonderful. I remember a year ago

:43:37.:43:43.

everyone was telling us to eat mackerel because it wasn't

:43:43.:43:49.

endangered, I felt duped. The "man" has deceived us again? Is that what

:43:49.:43:53.

you are saying? It would appear so, something like that. First, take

:43:53.:44:00.

your fish, all nice and ethical and line-caught from an in-shore boat,

:44:00.:44:03.

says this fishmonger. I spoke to a few suppliers, they said if you

:44:03.:44:09.

stick to the old method of line fishing, there is not a problem,

:44:09.:44:12.

small in-shore boats, buying it off them it is not a problem. There is

:44:12.:44:16.

loads of mackerel about. It is the big boats that are taking scoops of

:44:16.:44:21.

mackerel out of the sea. voracity of this fish is very great,

:44:21.:44:25.

from their immense numbers they are bold in attacking objects of which

:44:25.:44:30.

they might otherwise be expected to have a wholesome dread. There are

:44:30.:44:35.

loads of recipes of mackerel in 189th century cook books, it wanes

:44:35.:44:39.

in popularity again in the 20th century, when you look at books

:44:39.:44:43.

from the 1950s or 1960, it doesn't appear in them often. Partly, I

:44:43.:44:47.

think, because it has never been a really posh fish, it is not really

:44:47.:44:51.

used on dining tables. Mackerel was no longer catch of the day, because

:44:51.:44:55.

it also got a reputation as a dirty fish. In the summer they tend to

:44:55.:45:00.

come loser in shore, and some people associate the coming in

:45:00.:45:04.

shore of the mackerel with sewage pipes and things like that. They

:45:04.:45:09.

have nothing to do with sewage pipes. They live on the cleanest

:45:09.:45:13.

plankton, and small fishes and occasionally small squid. A dirty

:45:13.:45:17.

fish, our man in the whites won't have it. That is a terrible

:45:18.:45:26.

expression. Whoever said that is very unfair, very particularly to

:45:26.:45:29.

mackerel, it is the most magnificent fish for a number of

:45:29.:45:33.

reasons. It is nutritious to eat, the best nutritional values you can

:45:33.:45:43.

possibly have. In fact, this humble fish has been

:45:43.:45:50.

macking it on the supper tables and supermarkets, sales were up 11%,

:45:50.:45:54.

the advice now is easy on the favourite fish, or it could be the

:45:54.:46:00.

one that got away. Death impayers the vivid splendor of its colours,

:46:00.:46:05.

but it -- impairs its vivid shrend dor but doesn't entirely impede

:46:05.:46:15.
:46:15.:46:52.

them. We are going through the You're back, what else do we know

:46:52.:46:56.

about this, how is it going down? He has had good headlines from

:46:56.:47:00.

different papers across the political divide. The 2017 figures

:47:00.:47:03.

arrived at because it is the first two-and-a-half years of the

:47:03.:47:06.

parliament. It took a long time in coming this speech. Do you think he

:47:06.:47:10.

had to harden it up because of that? I think when it nearly came

:47:10.:47:13.

out and didn't, they were quite confident that it would answer some

:47:13.:47:16.

of the questions that have been raised. I don't think it has been

:47:16.:47:19.

refined, I think it is just that they knew it would get the

:47:19.:47:23.

reception it has got, so far, but tomorrow is the real thing on day

:47:23.:47:27.

two. Will anyone mind that you are getting reaction, from Brussels and

:47:27.:47:30.

Europe already, saying no way you can start renegotiating? They will

:47:30.:47:35.

assume that. As we said earlier, he has set out five principle that is

:47:35.:47:38.

are sufficiently vague, that if it turns out he's banging his head

:47:38.:47:42.

against a brick wall he has the get out he will need. Thank you very

:47:42.:47:46.

much. You might have seen the picture of Beyonce on some of the

:47:46.:47:51.

palmers. One President, one megastar and the biggest day in the

:47:51.:47:58.

American political calendar. For some, the Beyonce singing star

:47:58.:48:02.

spaingled banner was the pinnacle, for others it was a fudge. It is

:48:02.:48:06.

reported the acoustics being what it was, and the crowd being what it

:48:06.:48:13.

was, she might have mimed the song. We will let you decide.

:48:13.:48:23.
:48:23.:48:23.

Army cuts - are we overstretched? Will the government announce a referendum on Europe? Are women harder hit by recession? Should we eat mackerel? With Emily Maitlis.


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