06/12/2013 Newsnight


Bill Clinton, Michael Buerk, Justice Malala, Julius Malema and Nadine Gordimer on Nelson Mandela. The 80s and how he was received in Brixton. Plus, the UK economy.

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This programme contains some strong language.


They were two iconic world leaders who spent the closing years of the


20th century in charge of the respective countries. Tonight Bill


Clinton speaks for the first time since Nelson Mandela's death, paying


a moving and eloquent tribute to the fellow politician who became a


friend. When he smiled at you, if you looked in his eyes you knew he


was not just smiling, he was looking in your soul. Searching around for


what was really going on. We were arrested, there appeared no legal


reason and eventually leased. And Michael Burke, the BBC's man in 80s


apartheid South Africa charts Nelson Mandela as life and legacy. We will


hear from Nadine Gordimer, the lifetime friend of Nelson Mandela,


who was there as he was handed his prison sentence. And, is this


devisive figure the future of South Africa. We are a Government in


waiting and I'm the leader of that Government in waiting. We shall


fulfil where President Madiba left. Today Britain stands united in


respect. In the 1980s Nelson Mandela divided this country. The UK's


former man in Pretoria, and Labour MP, Diane Abbot reflect on the time.


Is the UK's economy really motoring, the Newsnight Robin Reliant is fired


up. Good evening, flags and cities across the globe are flying at half


mast, and leaders and countries all over the world have spoken of a


giant among men, an outstanding politician, an African son and hero.


From the Pope who paid tribute to Nulecit steadfast commitment in


promoting the human dignity of all citizens, to the Cuban state


newspaper who wrote that his legacy will continue to inspire future


generations of revolutionaries. Everyone has something to say about


Nelson Mandela. Not least former US President, Bill Clinton, who earlier


today granted Newsnight his first interview since Nelson Mandela's


death. One of the things I noticed yesterday, everybody talked about


what a magnificent example he was and both giving up his anger to


govern inclusively and also leaving power, but he was actually a very


good President, he was a faithful representative of all of his people


and of his nation in the national interest. And I thought it was


amazing given how long he had been in prison how quickly he got up to


speed. He made a good decision to keep the people in the Government


around him, keep them serving while he brought in some of his own


people. He really did a good job as President. I loved dealing with him.


It was all business. We would do our business and be friends again, even


if we were just on the phone. We would spend ten or 15 minutes


talking about personal things, but always after business first. Do you


think you learned a lot from him? Oh a lot. He was uncommonly kind to me.


The closer we got personally, although as I said we continued to


have arguments, on a couple of occasions we had very sharp


arguments. About what? We argued about the chairmanship of South


Africa from the land mine issue, I wanted to do more than all the other


countries in the world to get rid of land mines and some people drew the


treaty to rid of the antitank mines so only the European ones would be


available for purchase, it made me mad. And Mandela's apppointee was


the chairmanship. We said we wouldn't change it once we got the


final draft and I'm not going to change it. I also used to rib him


about Cuba. One of the things I really admired about him is he was


fan natically loyal after he became President to the countries that


supported him and the ANC while in prison. I remember one night we were


overries that supported him and the ANC while in prison. I remember one


night we were over there seven years ago for his birthday, and I took my


whole American delegation there, we participated and raised money for


the foundation. We had a little auction, one of the things auctioned


was a valuable bottle of rum that Fidel Castro had given him. Some


people were there and they said President Clinton you should buy


this in honour of Mandela, so I purchased it at auction and then I


had to give it away before I came back to the United States because I


didn't want to violate the embargo. When you think of his many


achievements, people talk about his great capacity for For giveness, do


you think that turned -- for he forgiveness, was that his strength


with the truth and reconciliation? I said how do you do this had you to


hate those people, with look what they did to you. He said I was young


and strong in prison and for 11 years I lived on my hatred. And one


day I was breaking rocks and thinking all they had done to me and


taken from me, they had abused me emotionally and physically, and


taken way the right for me to see my children glow up and eventually


destroyed my marriage, I realised they could take everything except my


mind and my heart. Those things I decided not to give away. He looked


at me because in the middle of all the fun I had with Congress, he


smiled and said "neither should you". He was always just saying


stuff like that. Just bending over backwards trying to be a true


friend. Did he talk to you about that sadness though, that must have


accompanied him through his life about the sacrifice that he and his


family had made, and he lost his personal life. He lost a close


relationship with many of his family members, that must have troubled him


deeply? It did bother him, but he had an iron will and he realised


that his will first needed to be applied to the mind and heart he had


saved, and he really disciplined himself to get over both anger and


regret in a hurry. You could see it, if you knew him well and you spent a


lot of time with him, you could see these things come up. I'm one of the


few people, I guess, that ever saw him really mad. He was even really


mad at me a time or two. He would get over T you could see his mind


kick in, his iron will, he knew he had to live in the present and think


of the future. It was liberating, just like the forgiveness was


liberating, he realised without for giveness he would -- forgiveness he


would never be free or make other people free, or give them permission


to forgive and trust. You know trust is something it is in pretty short


supply in the world today. Mandela had it a million-fold, because he


was trusting in people they thought I can't believe's trusting us, but


he did. Unlike Martin Luther king, he He -- king, he embraced armed


struggle, was that a conflict? He had within the country, in my mind


serves me well, the United States was part of an armed struggle when


part of King George's empire. His view was at the time there was no


way Way out, and he was young -- no way out, and he was young, and the


people of South Africa had been enslaved and in servitude in a


violent and repressive way for a long time. But something burned in


him when he basically began to grow spiritually. After he had been in


prison more than a year, and he realised that the ultimate victory


would be for the people of South Africa to be in a democracy that had


a chance to work, that had a chaps to function. And that in order to do


that, he had to demonstrate a whole given kind of leadership and adopt a


different strategy. I think he had come to that while he was in prison.


Prison. I imagine there will be a state funeral and you will be going


to that, if you are called upon to speak, what will you say you will


miss about him the most? I will miss the light that he caused to come on


in the lives of everybody he touched. When you were around


Mandela you wanted to be a bigger person. You knew you could be better


than you were, you knew that you had to concentrate on the big things,


and let little things go, and you had to overcome your own


resentments. I watched him do it, and almost as if I were inside his


brain for all those years we became friends. Both when he was President


and later when we worked on AIDS together for years and years. I will


miss that. When he smiled at you, if you looked in his eyes you knew he


was not just smiling, he was looking in your soul. Searching around for


what was really going on. And figuring it out and he knew just


what to say and how to say it. That was an uncommon gift that he gave to


everyone he cared about. I will miss that. And people all over the world


could see it. They could see it in the way he carried himself and the


way he spoke. It wasn't that he stopped being a citizen, that he


stopped having convictions on the issues, that he stopped having


disagreements even with his friends, it was that there was a bigger


reality, that our common humanity is the thing that matters most, and the


thing that ought to animate all our endeavours, personally and publicly.


Thank you so much. Thank you. Bill Clinton speaking to me earlier from


his home in upstate New York. What was it like living and working in


apartheid South Africa as an outsider? Michael Burke was the


BBC's South Africa correspondent from 1983-1987. Newsnight asked him


to revisit some of his own reports from the down paint a picture of


Nelson Mandela and his -- from the country to paint a picture of Nelson


Mandela and his life. Nelson Mandela lived and died in the


suburb of Houghton. Most of his neighbours who turned out to mourn


him are white, but it is economics not apartheid now. They were


grieving a convicted terrorist who turned their world upside down but


also it stayed the same. It could have been so different. When I went


to the 1980s South Africa was trapped between revolution, the


whites were trying to preserve things, and the blacks were


beginning to lose patience. The young were particularly angry, the


lid was about to come off. It was a terribly violent country. Brutal


undercurrents flowed through the cultures of both races, it wasn't


just apartheid that brought them to the surface. In Soweto, 25 domestic


murders a weekend were routine. Most whites seemed to have guns and few


inhibitions about using them. The security forces had few restraints.


As the children rioted, they were ambushed. At least three coloured


youths were killed outright before they could take cover. The police


said they were using bird shot, designed to wound not kill, but at


short range the ammunition was bill dead low and nearby buildings were


peppered with gun shots. More than 20 were wounded, three of them


seriously, many others were taken secretly to be treated in private


for fear of arrest. Our cameras recorded it in all its brutal


intensity and sent the pictures around the world. They hated us. You


people get out now very quickly OK. Because you people are the locking


cause of this now, get out. The battlegrounds of apartheid were the


townships, where blacks were lucky to be allowed to live, though still


as foreigners in their own land. 12 miles up the road and a world away


was where I lived. Our white suburbs were dedicated to the pursuit of


graciousness, when our blacks were hungry we didn't tell them to eat


cake, we ate it ourselves. This banquet in aid of the starving was


held with the country in a state of merge -- emergency and the townships


in a mess. There were more important things to talk about. What are


exercise It is a more complicated issue than most people realise, the


central truth is this is apartheid, and this isn't changing. The white


conscripts army crushed the township uprising, while we reporters were


gagged by a state of emergency. There had been no real organisation,


the ANC leaders in exile and in jail were on the sidelines. By now the


world had turned its back on white South Africa, credit of both kinds


were running out. The unthinkable had become the inevitable.


Good evening, Nelson Mandela walked away from 27 years in prison today


after 10,000 days in jail the world's most famous prisoner walks


out through the prison gates. He tells a mass rally in Cape Town


sanctions must remain, the armed struggle must go on. The armed


struggle and the reason we are in it still exists today. He emerged into


a world sanctfied by suffering, a politician that never had to bother


with the messy compromises of politics. All those hopes and fears


invested in a man almost everybody was seeing for the first time. He


was faithed for his dignity and his grace d feted for his dignity and


graze. He was a wooden speaker with little taste for administration,


nobody else could carry the burden of expectation. Will they expect


things quickly and is that a burden to you? It is an expectation, and


justified. In township, where the sheet flowed in the streets, and the


wagon offered one of the few jobs around, they expected miracles. The


ANC promised there will be housing, schooling, education, there will be


that and that and that. Will you give them one year, two years, three


years, four years? After the 27th I would give them two months. Life


mostly did get better, but the economy has stalled, half the young


people are unemployed, the ANC has grown fat on 20 years of


unchallenged rule, and worries about the young radical left. But it still


seems a miracle. Mandela is dead, but the dream is still alive. As


Michael Burke has just said, for a younger generation of South Africans


the hope and idealism occasioned by Nelson Mandela's presidency have


given way in recent years to new political challenges, not least the


future of the ANC, accused by some who have failed do enough to close


the yawning gap in the country between rich and poor. What will


Mandela's death mean for the democracy he created. A little


earlier I spoke to political commentator, Jack Malvern in Justice


Malala and talked about the mood of change today. It is amazing in the


sense here you had a nation who was waiting for this to happen, andent


the news came it was a bit of a shock. We all were hit, we sort of


stopped and reflected and it was a shock. Today it is turned from pain,


reminiscence, nostalgia to celebration, wow, Nelson Mandela


lived among us and this is, this has been, we have been touched amazingly


by a fantastic amazing human being. So, yes, it has moved, and if you


look at the images this evening of people flocking to Nelson Mandela's


house and his old home in Soweto, it is sort of let's go and be part of


history. Let's go touch a bit of it. So it is celebration, the shock has


sort of worn off and it is wow, he was here. But do you think that


Nelson Mandela, as a kind of a giant of the ANC, with him gone,


symbolically, will the ANC change, because the ANC itself is under a


lot of pressure, it has been in power for 18 years, do you think we


will see a big upheaval in the political landscape? I think South


Africa is at a bit of a tipping point in the political sphere.


Firstly the ANC that we have today is not the ANC of Nelson Mandela, a


lot of people say look at the head of the ANC, President Zuma, who


announced President Mandela's death last night. This is a man who is


mired in controversy right now, remember he's built himself a DLO


$20 million house in his home village, and many people are saying


how can you build a $20 million house? Right from the top many


officials are mired in corruption allegation, a lot of people are


asking questions about what this ANC is like. Then there is new players


coming on to the political field, a lot of people are saying, well, the


ANC in this election will not enjoy the two thirds majority it enjoyed


in 1999 and 2004, it will not enjoy the support it enjoyed in 2009, that


support will go below 60%. Remember it is at 65. 9% right now. And many,


many people are saying there will be challengers to the ANC, many of them


are coming through a former ANC firebrand who has started his own


party. He's speaking the language of Robert Mugabe, nationalise and land


compensation. These are some of the challenges that face the ANC. The


key question about Nelson Mandela's passing is whether people will


remember Nelson Mandela and vote on the basis of loving Nelson Mandela


and continue to vote for the ANC. That is a big factor in the


elections which may happen in the next was Did people understood what


President Mandela was, a revolutiony? We understood what he


was, President Mandela was a fighter, a militant radical young


person, and we have had an opportunity some of us to serve in


the same organisation, he served, some of us had an opportunity to


occupy the same position President Mandela occupied when he was a young


activist in the African National Congress. So therefore, in


everything else we do, we seek to be like him and we understand what he


represented as a father of the nation. Nelson Mandela would never


have surely agreed with your policy of seizing white farms? President


Mandela believed in the freedom charter, the freedom charter of


which he was a volunteer says the land shall be shared amongst those


who work it. And he believed in the people of South Africa sharing the


land. He actually has fought for the reinstatement of the land into the


hands of the rightful owners. Yours are the politics of Robert Mugabe,


not Nelson Mandela? No, no, no, no. Our politics are inspired by both.


Remember President Mugabe and President Mandela are the products


of the same youth formation. Both of them served in the ANC youth league.


Therefore their struggle has been the restoration of dignity to the


African people. We think that they remain an inspiration to many young


people who are actively participating in the struggle for


the restoration of the dignity of the oppressed African masses in


southern Africa. You are facing charges of fraud and money


laundering, corruption charges, these are surely not the attributes


of a leader, somebody that wants to be President of South Africa? Look


those charges are manufactured by those who cannot merge our political


ideas. They are suffering from poverty of ideas and as a result


because they are unable to defeat us ideolgically, and theologically,


they are now opting for monkey tricks and manipulating state


institutions to settle political differences. I have no worries, I


actually believe that within a short space of time, before we know it,


these charges will be cleared by the national prosecuting authority. Are


you contesting seats in the elections in April next year, and if


you are, do you expect to win and will that be a step on the road to


President President Malema? We are contesting elections and we are a


Government in waiting and I'm a President in waiting, we will


continue where President Mandela left. We will continue with the


struggle for total emancipation of our people. We are confident we are


a viable alternative here in South Africa, because those who are in


power today have undermined the legacy of President Mandela, they


are now a self-serving people, they are stealing from the poor to


benefit themselves and their immediate ones. We want to undermine


that by restoring thing willcy of President Mandela, where we bring


about an accountable Government which will deliver to the poorest of


the poor. Which will deliver to the poorest of the poor. The release of


Nelson Mandela came after a decade of international pressure. In this


country a generation of campaigners organised boycotts and protested


outside the South African embassy. Six years later tens of thousands


greeted Mandela, by then South African President on a famous walk


about in Brixton. What does he mean to today's generation of British


teenagers born in the years after his release. We went back to Brixton


to find out. It was like the biggest popstar the world had ever seen


coming to London and Brixton. People were unbelievably excited. There


were thousands of people lining the streets and barricades all down


here. The sound systems were playing, and people really, really


excited. We had people in tears. The crowd danced Calypso, as Nelson


Mandela turned up in Brixton. For many it was a symbol that something


was changing, not just in South Africa but this country as well. Mel


Milbourne was forced to flee South Africa as a 20-year-old, and this


Lela Kogbara was a campaigner, both were instrumental in bringing him


here. It was a thank you for all we did to put the pressure on the South


African Government, it was instrumental to bringing apartheid


down. My father being white, my mother being black, being in South


African under the apartheid laws they could not be a legaln'tity, the


result of which the house was raided, my mother was forced to


leave the country and I then followed subsequently to London. A


three-minute walk down the road, a new generation born around the time


Mandela toured this part of London and making an on-line magazine. We


brought them together to see how attitudes had changedtime Mandela


toured this part of London and making an on-line magazine. We


brought them together to see how attitudes had changed. I got on a


bus and I went to the front of the, but and the bus driver said you have


to go to the back. I said why the back because I'm comfortable here,


he said because you are black you have to sit in the black. I can't


understand how anyone would deal with that. If someone told me I


couldn't be in a shop or place or bus because I was a certain colour,


I would not tolerate it, I'm programmed to think, sorry if I need


or want to be here I can be here, you are not going to stop me from


being in a place because of the colour of my skin, it is ridiculous


to me. I don't understand it. Me personally I'm from a family where


my grandmother is white, but I have got black family, I have white


family. To me I grew up never thinking of it as something


important, until I got to a certain age it became a lot more apparent.


And I think that's the important thing about things like apartheid,


people like Nelson Mandela, he broke down those barriers. You are made to


feel in a kind of ostracised because of the colour of your skin, it


happens in so many different contexts. Again it is not apartheid


on that level, but it is still, there is some residue of that we do


still see. That's our generation's fight. So Lela, you were quite


involved in the antiapartheid movement in the 1980s, what did


Nelson Mandela mean to you back then? I felt angry, I was really,


really angry as a young black person in this country, and I just couldn't


imagine why you would have a system like apartheid. That was the main


thing, it wasn't this big peaceful love-in, at the time, and even when


Mandela was released and he was preaching peace at one point I


thought hang on a minute, do we really, why don't we punish these


people for what they have done. I think one of his best legacies is


the fact that he chose a path of peace. Is Nelson Mandela then still


relevant to you and your generation today? 100% and he always will be.


When he passed I was kind of heard the news on Twitter, he spent his


whole life fighting for us, it is our generation's turn now and it is


our obligation, it is what we are meant to be doing to make sure that


his word is never stopped getting retweeted and favourited and spread


all around the world. In the 1980s when Margaret Thatcher was at the


helm, attitudes to Nelson Mandela's incarceration and apartheid was not


as they are now. There wassam bitch lens about the armed struggle and


divisions about sanctions on the left and right. Diane Abbot was


elected Britain's first black MP at the height of the furore, and Lord


Renwick from the late 1980s was there. Now French the Daily Mail to


the Mirror is lawing Nelson Mandela. It is extraordinary, some Tory


leaders were saying Nelson Mandela should be hanged and Margaret


Thatcher said a the ANC was a typical terrorist organisation and


anyone who said they would run South Africa was living in cuckoo hand.


She was lukewarm about sanctions? She put in oil and other sanctions,


she thought it was complete nonsense to cut off air links and put


sanctions on agricultural exports which put tens of thousands of black


South Africans out of work with no alternative employment and no social


safety net. But I was in the middle of this. Even though what you would


say, obviously Nelson Mandela, but black activists were saying put the


sanctions on? Many of them were, absolutely. I was right in the


middle of this, I was her envoy to Pretoria, my instructions were


clear, To do everything I could to help get Nelson Mandela out of jail.


Now as long as Botha was there we had no charges when De Klerk took


over, he was a friend of mine and an admirer of her's. At midnight on the


night before he made his speech unbanning the ANC he telephoned me


and he said you can tell your Prime Minister she will not be


disappointed. That was very much Mrs Thatcher's influence, do you accept


that? That is very touching but getting Nelson Mandela out of jail


is one thing, defeating apartheid was another. Denis Thatcher, who I


think very often reflected Mrs Thatcher's real views, used to call


South Africa "God's own country", WLFS the the If Mrs Thatcher was a


supporter of the struggle she kept it quiet at the time? I don't agree


with Diane and neither did Nelson Mandela. When he was released, I


used to see him every single week, we had to train his bodies guards


and look at the security around his house and helped in negotiations


with the Government. He didn't want to fight with Mrs Thatcher, what he


wanted to know with me, and he said I was the adviser on this, was how


to get her on his side. When I came to the meeting with her I was there,


and I told her you mustn't interrupt him. And she didn't interrupt him


for a whole hour. Is that very unusual for her? Indeed it was, as


he told her all about the struggle with human rights, and exactly as I


told him she would, at the end of that she said we support you on all


of that, but stop all the nonsense about nationalising the banks and


the mines. So what you are essentially saying it was the


politics of the free market that dictated the approach? No, she


thought having met him that he was, he had exactly the same effect on


her as everybody else, she was immensely impressed, but she thought


that he didn't know much about economics. The meeting on went on so


long. So you would say that was patronising? To be honest she didn't


think many people knew much about economics, that was one of our


characteristics, the anti--apartheid struggle was a struggle of the


generation, there was a dividing line and those who wanted to bring


down party. You think it is a rewriting of history? I think so,


they can do, but those of us who were active at the time understood


where Mrs Thatcher and a lot of MPs stood. It is so strange to hear them


they loved Nelson Mandela and hated apartheid, it didn't look like it at


the time? Diane won't believe this but we wanted the same objective. At


the end of the meeting he walked out into Downing Street and thanked her


for everything she had done to help secure his release. He knew exactly


what they were doing, because I was able to tell him so in prison. Thank


you very much. Now that the dust has settled and George Osborne's big day


out, the Autumn Statement can be surveyed with both the benefit of a


little distance and the interpretation of the Institute of


Fiscal Studies with follows the Autumn Statement as night follows


day, growth is up and benefits bill down, but how does it feel for you


the people are you better off. The Tories say yes, and Labour no, and


the IFS is with Labour on this one. Is the economy motoring again? If


this little Robin Reliant were the economy, it is nippier than we


thought. It had dodgy years but picking up speed. Today the


Chancellor's claim that we are feeling the benefit of that was


challenged. This is how the official forecast for economic growth has


changed in eight months. This year from 0. 6%-1. 4%, and next year from


1. 8%-2. 4%. Just six months ago it looked as though we were stalling,


black smoke out the back of the exhaust, we looked like a write-off,


now we are cruising along at speed. We are the fastest-growing major


economy. And the faster growth is driving the deficit down as tax and


VAT is rolling in, less is being spent on benefits. But are we


feeling the recovery? Labour's claim is working people are on average


?1,600 worse off than when David Cameron took power. Yesterday George


Osborne seemed to refute that. And yes, real household disposable


income is rising. But today the independent Institute for Fiscal


Studies said the Chancellor's numbers didn't show quite what they


seemed to. The real disposable income is forecast to have increased


by 0. 5% in 2015, but the population is increasing so the income per


person is forecast to fall very slightly, which might seem at odds


with what George Osborne has been saying. According to the measure of


household disposable income per person, incomes in 2016 will be very


little higher than in 2006, that is ten years without growth. So now


we're in the City, close to the Bank of England, and the trouble with the


City is, as soon as the car starts to get going, it starts to fret that


it's going to overheat. And then the Bank of England might slam on the


brakes. The bank said interest rates won't rise while unemployment is


above 7%. So how soon might it fall below that. At the budget in March


the forecast that was it would take three years. Yesterday the office


for bugetry responsibility said unemployment would fall much faster


and then stay above 7% for a year. Calming fears of interest rate


rises. The supposedly Office of Budget Responsibility has this


unemployment rate which has been plummeting, well steadily, suddenly


flatlining just above the threshold that the Bank of England promised


they wouldn't raise interest rates until it fell below. So it may be


that they have kind of nudged the forecast to avoid alarming the


markets who are very nervous at the moment. Have we just jump started


the old economic model, the one that clashed, the years of house rises


and debt. Falling sales were blamed as pressure on the consumer. But


consumer spending is lovely jubbly, it grew at its fastest pace in three


years in the last quarter and so did the economy, consumer spending is


driving it. If real incomes are not growing and consumer spending is,


how do you square that? There is one answer, debt. We would like to


replace our debt-fuelled economy with a new model, but households


have a record of ?1. 4 trillion. Business investment is barely


rising, exports are down and five more years of austerity. No suped up


engine yet, but a very nice paint job.


I'm joined now by Phil Collins from the Times, and Janan Ganesh from the


Financial Times. The Conservatives first, the economy growing,


benefits' bills down, essentially stick with the Conservatives and get


the job done? Yeah, and if there is another 2. 5% of growth next year


and inflation comes down a bit, that argument looks pretty strong in the


months leading up to the election. I don't think that growth is their


winning issue, I think their winning issue is the deficit. As long as the


central subject of British politics is the deficit, Labour have a


credibility problem, and George Osborne's job this week was to


restore that issue to the centre of politics. The fact that the public


doesn't really care that the deficit 2010, you know, ?60 billion ?120 and


then down ?9, that's OK then? I think you're right that is the


central question, and if George Osborne can define it as much. What


happened to Labour in the Autumn Statement, their position reminds me


of the speakers question, we are on the edge of the abyss now let's walk


straight forward. Labour's pitch has been this Government is ruining the


economy, making it worse with austerity, of course you are a


terrible hostage to fortune to good numbers. George Osborne for the


first time had a few good numbers to bring to the House of Commons, and


Ed Balls was in a terrible position. He was marooned with nothing to say.


He had a good position but the IFS blew it out of the water and said


Labour on the basis of whatever it was ?1,400 worse off was the correct


figure. But it doesn't have any traction? No, but what matters is


the trend. If the economy generally and people's personal circumstances


are even marginally improving in the last six months of the parliament,


I'm not sure they will remember what happened four years earlier. I think


the last six-to-nine months are disproportionately important in


parliament. He just wants to tell us what it will be like in 2015? We


would like him and Phil wrote a good column saying he should think ahead


to infrastructure and investment in the future. Really his political


incentive is to get it right over the next 18 months. For a sustained


recovery, you want a massive increase in business investment, it


is up 1%, you don't want a recovery based on personal debt and housing


boom do you? That is right, the one line of attack which is credible is


the fragility of the recovery, it could be built on sand. The


debt-fuelled nature of it is extremely worrying. However, you


have to look at the time scale here, it is not that long until the next


election, and every incentive for the politician is to look at the hor


rise zone two years hence. The big question for Labour is whether the


two things, the economy in aggregate on the one hand and living


standards. Labour is trying to separate them, a credibility problem


on economic growth, but we are more trusted on the idea that we might be


able to put money in your pocket and they are separating those two


things. There is a lot of psychology around that, but a lot of that is


dependant on whether or not you trust the central character in the


Labour story. The central character in this story is not bland it is Ed


Balls? -- Ed Miliband but Balls? I think he knows Ed Balls well enough


not to count on that. Knows that Ed Balls will kick up a fuss and has a


parliamentary following of pug listic MPs. It can be a bloody thing


to go through. It is not as if he brings nothing at all to the Labour


table, he is pragmatic. But enough, will people vote for Ed Balls as


Chancellor? That is the proposition they will be offered, I don't think


there is any likelihood at all. It is impossible to separate the dancer


from the dance in politics. It is the message that is the problem. It


is not just that Ed Balls had a bad day or performance, the central


economic message is difficult to sell. Labour has been saying we will


spend our way out of a spending crisis. The cost of living issue is


losing traction? It matters to people and Labour are more trusted


than the Conservatives. The big question is two things, whether the


economy and aggregate comes back into line with living standards and


second whether Labour can really possibly define an election on that


question when their credibility on the economy is so poor. I think they


can get awhich with saying that the cost of living is as important as


the macro economy, they can't get away with saying nothing on the


macro economy. Finally a very personal memory of Nelson Mandela,


the South African author, Nadine Gordimer knew him as a young man,


she herself was a member of the ANC and through her novels gave voice to


the moral and racial struggle against apartheid in her country.


Literature for which she won a Nobel Prize. Five years younger than


Mandela, a constant friend throughout his life. We filmed her


at her home in Johannesburg as she recognise collected the man she


knew. My first memories were at a distance, seeing him, his


photographs in the papers. And a friend of the distinguished of the


advocate, and when the treason trial came on of Mandela he said do you


want to come along to listen, and I did. So I went and I just couldn't


keep away. So George very resourceful he has his brief case


with all his legal papers in it, he said you take this and you are my


assistant and secretary, when the time came for to have a lunch break


you know in these courts, George went down to talk to his, the people


that he's representing that is Nelson and some others, and I went


with him owe diently carrying the papers he had. Then I met --


obediently carrying the papers he was carrying, then I met Mandela in


the trial cells. After that I continued to attend the trials,


especially the final one which was the treason trial. And when he was


sentenced to life imprisonment, I was there and heard it. With some


unbelieve, I couldn't believe this was really happening. So that was


the beginning of it. Then of course he went to the island. While he was


on the island it so happened that I wrote a novel called There Goes The


Daughter. And the prisoners on Robben Island were not allowed to


have books sent to them. Apparently there was a bit of smuggling books


and forth going, one of them was smuggled in was my book. Nelson read


it and apparently he thought well of it, and he wrote me a letter. Which


was smuggled OutRage of the prison as my book was smuggled in. And


something of course that I treasure. He was a whole person, most of us


have great gaps in our nature and awareness of each other but he


indeed was a whole person. He had no prejudice, he had no anger. As every


black person has every right to against the fact that of the years


of colonialism that built up to apartheid. He was not a gloomy man


at all, no matter how difficult things were. He had great and a


strange mixture of courage and confidence. As if the confidence fed


the courage. He just knew that the world in South Africa could not


carry on like this. I think that the decision to give up the presidency,


was it a bit premature, considering that we have never replaced him, we


have never been able to so far replace him with anybody near his


extraordinary personality, his intellect and courage. In the end


there was something in him that really overcame everything. And


surely some of that must remain. This may be just a personal idea,


but I think many people would have it that he will never be dead for


us. But I think that he cannot be forgotten. He will never be out of


date. Because what he stood for is timeless. That is almost all for


tonight, but there was more sad news today with the death of a


much-admired figure and one of the giants of jazz Stan Tracey, he was


honoured last year at the Ivor novella awards. We will live you


with his rendition of I Let A Song Go Out Of My Heart.