Browse content similar to 26/02/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Britain tomorrow won't be David Cameron. The most powerful figure in | :00:08. | :00:12. | |
Britain will be Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, the Prime | :00:13. | :00:16. | |
Minister wants to renegotiate our EU membership, what succre can she | :00:17. | :00:26. | |
offer? What she want promise has no power to offer is the possibility of | :00:27. | :00:31. | |
treaty change. Will it be enough? These animals are on the verge of | :00:32. | :00:35. | |
extinction. Could these ones be going the same way, why isn't the | :00:36. | :00:41. | |
planet big enough for all of us. And... The first trip is vanish -- | :00:42. | :00:47. | |
the first trick is vanishing inflation. If you wonder whether | :00:48. | :00:53. | |
Government plays fast and loose with statistic, we will show you how it | :00:54. | :00:58. | |
is done. And Jerry Springer on whether television serves up poor | :00:59. | :01:03. | |
people as a freak show for the amusement of couch potatoes. | :01:04. | :01:13. | |
Break out the beer, the Riesling the sasauges and the sourkraut, we are | :01:14. | :01:18. | |
on the eve of a celebration of all things German. The Chancellor of the | :01:19. | :01:21. | |
most powerful country in Europe is in London tomorrow to address a | :01:22. | :01:25. | |
joint meeting of parliament. Having tea with the Queen and being | :01:26. | :01:28. | |
buttered up by David Cameronment he wants to keep her sweet because | :01:29. | :01:32. | |
she's potentially his most powerful ally in his attempts to renegotiate | :01:33. | :01:36. | |
this country's relationship with Europe. An opinion poll today | :01:37. | :01:39. | |
suggested voters in the two countries have some quite similar | :01:40. | :01:44. | |
views on the European project. Emily Maitlis has been looking ahead to | :01:45. | :01:47. | |
the visit, which, like Emily's report, may contain flash | :01:48. | :02:01. | |
photography. ??FORCEDWHI # Here she comes... No, not the | :02:02. | :02:08. | |
Queen, but she might as well be, such is the weight of expectation | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
sitting on the German Chancellor's shoulders. Angela Merkel's due here | :02:13. | :02:18. | |
tomorrow, she will get the full royal treatment. It is what she may | :02:19. | :02:21. | |
say in private that may have a far greater impact. The Prime Minister | :02:22. | :02:24. | |
is hoping to hear from her something akin to support for the kind of | :02:25. | :02:32. | |
Europe that his party envisages. My admiration for Angela Merkel is | :02:33. | :02:36. | |
enormous and there are many things that she has achieved that I would | :02:37. | :02:39. | |
like to copy, not least getting re-elected! Angela Merkel gets to | :02:40. | :02:45. | |
come here it address both Houses and she gets tea with the Queen. Warm | :02:46. | :02:48. | |
words from the Prime Minister this morning, it all adds up to a very | :02:49. | :02:52. | |
different level of reception to that accorded other European heads of | :02:53. | :02:59. | |
state in recent weeks. It's far cry, for example, from the treatment the | :03:00. | :03:01. | |
French President got when he turned up here last month. Mr Hollande, | :03:02. | :03:11. | |
more renowned for his social life than socialism, was greeted with a | :03:12. | :03:16. | |
pub lunch. Now no-one can complain about an English country pub, but it | :03:17. | :03:23. | |
wasn't tea with Her 34. Madge. There is a clear reason behind the | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
love-bombing, David Cameron needs Angela Merkel to guarantee him | :03:29. | :03:31. | |
assurances in a revised treaty if he's to win a referendum campaign on | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
the EU. I asked the deputy EU if he thinks that could happen? Reform | :03:37. | :03:40. | |
yes, but unilateral repatriation, no. Merkel, for her part has a | :03:41. | :03:46. | |
vested interest in keeping Britain happy. As a figurehead of EU power, | :03:47. | :03:50. | |
she can't afford to see Britain leave it. I think she can offer | :03:51. | :03:53. | |
certainly her support when it comes to some areas where there are strong | :03:54. | :04:00. | |
common interests. One is to reduce EU regulation and red tape for small | :04:01. | :04:06. | |
and medium-sized enterprise, another would be the support for a trade | :04:07. | :04:14. | |
policy. Fine, says this woman, who understands German sensibilities | :04:15. | :04:17. | |
better than most, but it won't be enough. I think she would be able to | :04:18. | :04:23. | |
deliver what I call some "smarties", that will allow people to feel good | :04:24. | :04:27. | |
about themselves in a limited way. In terms of the fundamental | :04:28. | :04:30. | |
renegotiation which part of the British political class is looking | :04:31. | :04:36. | |
for, returning powers, Angela Merkel is simply not in that kind of | :04:37. | :04:40. | |
business. What the Conservatives want to set in stone, are what they | :04:41. | :04:49. | |
call "limited opt-outs", ways of Britain more power for certain areas | :04:50. | :04:56. | |
of policy. One German politician put it to my early it is not very likely | :04:57. | :05:03. | |
for an opt-out, saying we British want an opt-out for the financial | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
industry, and the Germans for the automotive industry, and the French | :05:09. | :05:11. | |
for their sheep, in other words, once you start you would never stop. | :05:12. | :05:14. | |
This restaurant, you didn't think you would see a whole piece on | :05:15. | :05:19. | |
German state visit without a reference to a sausage, is the baby | :05:20. | :05:24. | |
of two expatriots, they have been here four years, I asked how they | :05:25. | :05:28. | |
see the British appetite for Europe? Split in half because in some ways | :05:29. | :05:31. | |
the Brits always like to be the Brits on their own, in a way, I | :05:32. | :05:34. | |
think. But obviously they are also collaborative. So I don't know what | :05:35. | :05:41. | |
to really say? I'm totally in agreement, as long as they can keep | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
the pound! All is good! Hopefully fingers crossed. They serve the | :05:48. | :05:54. | |
Chancellor's favourite street food here, Crushy wurst, probably not on | :05:55. | :06:01. | |
the menu for the dignitaries tomorrow. It is over lunch they will | :06:02. | :06:06. | |
get down to business. Angela Merkel will all for targeted treaty change. | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
This is a phrase that doesn't exist in EU process or proceed ducks and | :06:12. | :06:14. | |
Labour argue if the language were made any plainer the gap between | :06:15. | :06:18. | |
what David Cameron wants and what Chancellor Merkel can actually offer | :06:19. | :06:26. | |
would be way too obvious. The Chancellor will see all three | :06:27. | :06:30. | |
leaders tomorrow, each is likely to claim a meeting of minds. State | :06:31. | :06:36. | |
craft is a powerful tool, but once the red carpet is re-rolled and the | :06:37. | :06:41. | |
day is done, the Prime Minister will have to see with his own party if | :06:42. | :06:45. | |
the German Chancellor has come with enough. Emily's here with more | :06:46. | :06:54. | |
developments on coalition machinations. There were suggestions | :06:55. | :06:57. | |
that David Cameron would rule out any future coalition and even make | :06:58. | :07:01. | |
it a manifesto pledge if he thought it would bring back his backbenchers | :07:02. | :07:05. | |
or anyone who might lend UKIP their vote and tell them he wants to go it | :07:06. | :07:10. | |
alone. Last night on this programme you will remember Len McClusky from | :07:11. | :07:18. | |
Unite, urging Ed Miliband to say he would lead a majority if he could do | :07:19. | :07:23. | |
so. I put it to Nick Clegg in the press conference and asked him if he | :07:24. | :07:26. | |
had a direct Conservatives, or any knowledge that this is what David | :07:27. | :07:29. | |
Cameron might be wanting, along the lines of a coalition in future? | :07:30. | :07:36. | |
Clearly there is a... How can I put it a McClusky tendency in both the | :07:37. | :07:42. | |
Labour and the Conservative Party, what you are seeing is the last gasp | :07:43. | :07:53. | |
of the assumption from the two bigger parties that some how they | :07:54. | :07:55. | |
have always got a right to run things. It is now, they are now some | :07:56. | :08:00. | |
how claiming that they would have a right to decide how this country is | :08:01. | :08:05. | |
governed, even if they don't win a majority, that is clearly a | :08:06. | :08:09. | |
preposterous assertion. He sounds pretty confident he will be in power | :08:10. | :08:13. | |
again? He thinks, given the shape of electoral mathematics now, that | :08:14. | :08:17. | |
coalitions will be more not less likely. He thinks for that reason | :08:18. | :08:21. | |
the public have to get used to two parties working to the, even if they | :08:22. | :08:24. | |
don't particularly get on. The example he used was work place | :08:25. | :08:28. | |
colleagues. He says that people have to get used to hearing different | :08:29. | :08:31. | |
things because they all experience it themselves. Some will have | :08:32. | :08:37. | |
noticed, rather more stride dent tone in the recent weeks about Tory | :08:38. | :08:40. | |
partner, they have been saying things like "unbalanced" "unfocussed | :08:41. | :08:53. | |
and "dangerous policies", you but today he said the public knows and | :08:54. | :08:57. | |
expect us not to be on the same page. One source close to the | :08:58. | :09:00. | |
cabinet told me today that although they were going all out for a | :09:01. | :09:03. | |
majority, this was a Tory source, they would find it much easier to | :09:04. | :09:08. | |
work again with t Lib Dems than their own backbenchers. Still to | :09:09. | :09:13. | |
come, Jerry Springer on how television portrays the poor. The | :09:14. | :09:26. | |
two Muslim fanatics who hacked an offduty soldier to death were | :09:27. | :09:30. | |
sentenced today, one got a minimum 45 years, the other should spend the | :09:31. | :09:34. | |
rest of his life in prison. Neither showed remorse in court, and the | :09:35. | :09:39. | |
judge said one was beyond the possibility of rehabilitation. So | :09:40. | :09:43. | |
they will live at the tax-payers' expense for decades to come. What | :09:44. | :09:46. | |
can be done with them during that time. This report contains some | :09:47. | :09:51. | |
flashing images. It was, the judge said, a betrayal of Islam and the | :09:52. | :09:57. | |
peaceful Muslims who give so much to this country. Michael Adebolajo and | :09:58. | :10:01. | |
his accomplice, Michael Adebowale, started screaming and had to be | :10:02. | :10:05. | |
hauled from the dock as they were sentenced to long prison terms | :10:06. | :10:09. | |
today. There were sobs from the relatives and friends of Fusilier | :10:10. | :10:15. | |
Lee Rigby, who all sat in silence throughout the judge's remarks. A | :10:16. | :10:19. | |
police detective read the family's statement outside the Old Bailey. | :10:20. | :10:23. | |
The Rigby family welcomes the whole life and significant sentences that | :10:24. | :10:25. | |
have been passed down on Lee's killers. We feel that no other | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
sentence would have been acceptable and we would like to thank the judge | :10:30. | :10:34. | |
and the courts for handing down what we believe to be the right prison | :10:35. | :10:39. | |
terms. Both men will start their sentences at a category A prison, | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
like Belmarsh, in south London. This place has held some of the most | :10:44. | :10:47. | |
high-profile terror suspects of recent years, from the radical | :10:48. | :10:52. | |
preacher Abu Hamza, to one of the men behind the failed London | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
bombings. One in six of the men behind the walls is a Muslim | :10:58. | :11:02. | |
prisoner. As we were filming the man carrying Adebolajo and Adebowale | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
pulled into the prison gates. Both men will be held in the | :11:07. | :11:09. | |
high-security unit here, where any contact with other prisoners is | :11:10. | :11:12. | |
tightly controlled. They have their phone calls monitored, it is | :11:13. | :11:15. | |
unlikely they will be allowed to pray alongside other inmates. These | :11:16. | :11:22. | |
men served time in Belmarsh after being jailed for soliciting murder | :11:23. | :11:30. | |
after a rally about a cartoon satirising the profit Mohammed. | :11:31. | :11:33. | |
Their views are extreme to other Muslims. The fact they are in the | :11:34. | :11:38. | |
high-security unit people will be interested in what they were like. I | :11:39. | :11:43. | |
remember when Abu Hamza was in the unit, people hoped to be in the unit | :11:44. | :11:50. | |
just to see what they will like and hear what he has to say. A lot of | :11:51. | :11:54. | |
people in the prison system, that will go through their mind. First | :11:55. | :11:57. | |
and foremost they won't be able to see them in the high-security unit | :11:58. | :12:01. | |
isolated from all other prisoners. Perhaps five years down the line | :12:02. | :12:06. | |
will they transfer them to other high-security prisons where people | :12:07. | :12:11. | |
may have similar views. Looking up terror suspects and convicts in the | :12:12. | :12:15. | |
same place as of course led to serious difficulties in the past. | :12:16. | :12:22. | |
The H-blocks in the Maze were notorious recruiting grounds for | :12:23. | :12:26. | |
republicans and unionists. The authorities started worrying that | :12:27. | :12:30. | |
looking up high numbers of extremists in Belmarsh could store | :12:31. | :12:33. | |
up similar problems, there was a decision made to disperse those | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
convicted of high-profile terror offences across the estate. It is a | :12:38. | :12:43. | |
massive challenge for prison officers up and -- prison officers | :12:44. | :12:47. | |
up and down the country, because you don't know what you are facing | :12:48. | :12:50. | |
day-to-day. For example those prisoners themselves with extreme | :12:51. | :12:53. | |
and radical views may well be the target themselves from the rest of | :12:54. | :12:59. | |
the prison population. They could be dangerous towards prison officers, | :13:00. | :13:03. | |
and the danger for them is that they radicalise other prisoners. Official | :13:04. | :13:09. | |
Muslim chaplains are now being used to Dublin a new programme of | :13:10. | :13:12. | |
one-to-one sessions meant for inmates with the most entrenched | :13:13. | :13:16. | |
views. Independent advisers who work with extremists say it is possible | :13:17. | :13:19. | |
to make a difference. You have to remember that these people hold | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
these extreme ideas, they are religious zealot, they are people | :13:24. | :13:26. | |
that want to propagage their point of view. They want to convince | :13:27. | :13:30. | |
others around them. You have a premise for engaging in the first | :13:31. | :13:33. | |
place. The difficulty would be I guess the idea that whether you are | :13:34. | :13:40. | |
a credible interlocketer or not, are you someone they could be worth | :13:41. | :13:44. | |
engaging with, you have to establish that credibility. Critics say the | :13:45. | :13:48. | |
Government strategy isn't cutting through, of the 150 people convicts | :13:49. | :13:51. | |
of terrorist-related offences in recent years, it is thought 40 have | :13:52. | :13:56. | |
agreed to par at thises operate in the programme -- participate in the | :13:57. | :14:00. | |
programme. The prison him mans were seen with suspicion. Nobody saw them | :14:01. | :14:06. | |
as somebody who confide in or even to really refer to or to ask. They | :14:07. | :14:14. | |
saw them as another guard or governor who was there to gather | :14:15. | :14:18. | |
intelligence and information. In the case of Adebolajo and Adebowale any | :14:19. | :14:24. | |
talk of rehabilitation and re-entry to society may mean little. Neither | :14:25. | :14:31. | |
will be eligible for release until 2059. It is up to the authorities | :14:32. | :14:35. | |
now to monitor and control. We are joined by Peter Neumann, founder and | :14:36. | :14:40. | |
director of the international centre for radicalisation at King's College | :14:41. | :14:44. | |
London. What will happen to these men? They are both going to go to | :14:45. | :14:48. | |
prison. One will be there without any chance of parole, the other one | :14:49. | :14:52. | |
is going to be released when he's a pensioner. So I don't think we | :14:53. | :14:57. | |
should expect any miracles. They don't have any incentive to change | :14:58. | :15:04. | |
their beliefs. If anything their incentive is to stick to their | :15:05. | :15:08. | |
beliefs, to change them would be to admit to themselves that they have | :15:09. | :15:11. | |
wasted their lives. Will they be free to associate with other inmates | :15:12. | :15:15. | |
do you think? The way it is being handled in this country is they are | :15:16. | :15:19. | |
being treated as high-security prisoners so they are in a | :15:20. | :15:23. | |
high-security prison. And within these high-security prisons there | :15:24. | :15:29. | |
are so called specialist units, they are not particularly made for | :15:30. | :15:34. | |
terrorism offenders but the chance to interact with the rest of the | :15:35. | :15:38. | |
prison population is pretty limited. You are an expert on | :15:39. | :15:41. | |
deradicalisation, you have already hinted that there may not be much | :15:42. | :15:47. | |
reason to think of deradicalising, but 45 years or longer is a great | :15:48. | :15:50. | |
time to think about it? Absolutely. But since they are not going to be | :15:51. | :15:56. | |
let out, I wonder if any efforts are going to be made? What would be the | :15:57. | :16:06. | |
point of doing that? The principle incentive to deradicalise people is | :16:07. | :16:09. | |
they will be let back into society at some point. If you are not going | :16:10. | :16:12. | |
to be let back into society why would you even try? Are they similar | :16:13. | :16:17. | |
in any sense to other guerrilla groups, terrorist groups that have | :16:18. | :16:21. | |
been in prison, I'm thinking for example of the IRA? So the principle | :16:22. | :16:30. | |
difference between Al-Qaeda-inspired terrorists and Irish republicans, | :16:31. | :16:33. | |
Irish republicans looked at other prisoners as ordinary criminal, they | :16:34. | :16:36. | |
wanted nothing to do with them. They didn't want to recruit them, they | :16:37. | :16:41. | |
saw themselves as superior to them. Where as Al-Qaeda-inspired prisoners | :16:42. | :16:45. | |
see their time in prison as an opportunity to radicalise. If they | :16:46. | :16:51. | |
are being exposed to other prisoners they will try to make recruits. That | :16:52. | :16:56. | |
creates a dilemma for the prison authorities, they can't allow them | :16:57. | :16:59. | |
to associate with other prisoners that much because they will try to | :17:00. | :17:03. | |
radicalise them. They are a real security risk? They are, they are | :17:04. | :17:08. | |
and they have been, there have been incidents, and Abu Qatada said he | :17:09. | :17:17. | |
saw so many people in prisons coming in ripe for recruitment. And now it | :17:18. | :17:22. | |
is a dilemma for the prison authorities because they don't want | :17:23. | :17:25. | |
the prisoners to be exposed to them. Let's hope there are no more | :17:26. | :17:29. | |
incidents, if there are more there will be more men and women being | :17:30. | :17:32. | |
locked up, because the Government have a strategy? Well the | :17:33. | :17:37. | |
Government, if you had asked me that question five or six years ago I | :17:38. | :17:41. | |
would have said probably no, but over the past five or six years they | :17:42. | :17:46. | |
have actually done quite a lot, so prison staff have been trained, | :17:47. | :17:55. | |
there are moderate Imans in prisons, you don't have to go to extremist to | :17:56. | :18:01. | |
get religious instructions. There are a lot of things in place that | :18:02. | :18:05. | |
would prevent radicalisation happening. It is not perfect but | :18:06. | :18:09. | |
better than it was five or six years ago. Thank you very much. Now the | :18:10. | :18:14. | |
end of life as we know it. In the last 500 million or so years there | :18:15. | :18:18. | |
have been five mass extinctions of life on earth. The most famous is | :18:19. | :18:21. | |
the one that wiped out the dinosaurs after a meetite about the -- | :18:22. | :18:31. | |
meteorite in excess of 45,000 miles an hour hit the earth. We are | :18:32. | :18:35. | |
entering a sixth mass extinction it is thought, this time the agent is | :18:36. | :18:43. | |
us. Kolbert is the author of The Sixth Extinction -- Elizabeth | :18:44. | :18:46. | |
Kolbert is author of The Sixth Extinction, and we have the previous | :18:47. | :18:51. | |
economist and writer from the Economist. Elizabeth Kolbert, how | :18:52. | :18:57. | |
close are we to the sixth extinction? Well, some people would | :18:58. | :19:01. | |
say that they are, you know, only on the verge of it, we can still | :19:02. | :19:06. | |
prevent it and some scientists would say we are pretty deep into this | :19:07. | :19:10. | |
project already. That we have been, human cause of extinction is a thing | :19:11. | :19:16. | |
that goes back 50,000 years or so ago, since our ancestors went to | :19:17. | :19:21. | |
places like Australia and caused a wave of extinctions. Do you worry | :19:22. | :19:31. | |
about this? Yes I do. It is a really dramatic impact we have had on other | :19:32. | :19:37. | |
species on the planet. I'm a little less pessimistic in that I think | :19:38. | :19:40. | |
richer countries are beginning to take this in hand. One of the key | :19:41. | :19:47. | |
factors in this is climate change isn't it? Yes. Climate change is | :19:48. | :19:53. | |
predicted. If you, once again, all we can do at this point, because | :19:54. | :19:56. | |
there is a pretty big lag time in the system in climate change. So | :19:57. | :20:01. | |
there is a lot of modelling efforts, people trying to figure out what | :20:02. | :20:06. | |
will the world look like 50-100 years from now. Many of the studies | :20:07. | :20:09. | |
will be climate change will become the major driver of extinction. It | :20:10. | :20:14. | |
isn't at this point. There we are. Some reassurance there? Well, if | :20:15. | :20:19. | |
climate change is at the upper end of current estimates, then it will | :20:20. | :20:24. | |
be disastrous, but if it is at the lower end than probably most | :20:25. | :20:29. | |
biodiversity won't have that much of a problem with it. What time scale | :20:30. | :20:34. | |
are we talking about here? In terms of climate change? Yeah. Well we can | :20:35. | :20:38. | |
see some serious climate change by the end of the century. Some people | :20:39. | :20:43. | |
are talking about four degrees, some talking one degree. One degree is | :20:44. | :20:47. | |
not that much of a problem, four degrees is a massive problem. Let's | :20:48. | :20:50. | |
supposing, Elizabeth Kolbert, I don't think in New York you can see | :20:51. | :20:54. | |
this, but we have a rather nice illustration of a spotted frog, | :20:55. | :20:58. | |
which has now vanished conveniently, a spotted frog and a wildcat. But | :20:59. | :21:04. | |
supposing these creatures disappear, in what way are we diminished? We | :21:05. | :21:11. | |
are really talking about the richness and variety of life on | :21:12. | :21:15. | |
earth, which is last taken many, many millions of years reach this | :21:16. | :21:21. | |
point, and we are unravelling it very, very quickly. We have to be | :21:22. | :21:26. | |
concerned on absolutely all levels, on an ethical and practical level, | :21:27. | :21:30. | |
at every level. Surely extinction is the natural counterpart to | :21:31. | :21:34. | |
evolution. Everything is going to become extinct at some point? That | :21:35. | :21:38. | |
is absolutely true. The question is the rate at which things are | :21:39. | :21:41. | |
becoming extinct. When you think about it, it is absolutely clear. | :21:42. | :21:45. | |
You don't see new species popping up around you all the tile. And you | :21:46. | :21:49. | |
shouldn't, in the course of a human lifetime for example you should not | :21:50. | :21:54. | |
be able to see a single species of mammal go extinct, it should only | :21:55. | :21:58. | |
happen on the order of many hundreds of years that one species of mammal | :21:59. | :22:04. | |
should go extinct. If they are going extinct faster than that, it means | :22:05. | :22:07. | |
they are evolving more slowly an extinction, the variety of the | :22:08. | :22:10. | |
planet is plummeting. That is happening now. Are you bothered by | :22:11. | :22:15. | |
this deminute fusion in variety? Yes, but I do think we need to look | :22:16. | :22:19. | |
at the efforts that a lot of countries are making to stop this | :22:20. | :22:23. | |
reduction in variety. If you look over the last 30 years in the rich | :22:24. | :22:27. | |
world we have made huge efforts in terms of getting rid of invasive | :22:28. | :22:32. | |
species, of increasing nature reserves. The deforestation on the | :22:33. | :22:38. | |
Amazon is running now at about 10% of what it was ten years ago. All | :22:39. | :22:43. | |
over the world people are making a huge effort to stop this happening. | :22:44. | :22:48. | |
You are absolutely right that over thousands of years humanity has had | :22:49. | :22:52. | |
a disastrous affect on other species, but there is a good chance | :22:53. | :22:56. | |
that we, simple Lewis because we have decided to, may be able to stop | :22:57. | :23:01. | |
this destruction. And there will be plenty of people at home will say | :23:02. | :23:06. | |
frankly what does it matter if the spotted frog disappears? A number of | :23:07. | :23:10. | |
things, all sorts of species have really interesting DNA that medical | :23:11. | :23:15. | |
researchers are increasingly realising can solve all sorts of | :23:16. | :23:17. | |
problems that scientists which themselves cannot. Chairman Mao | :23:18. | :23:27. | |
decided to wipe out all the sparrows and the result was a playing of | :23:28. | :23:32. | |
insects. We need creatures more than we think we did. What do you make of | :23:33. | :23:36. | |
the argument that human kind has it within its possibility of doing | :23:37. | :23:40. | |
something to arrest this extinction, which may already have started, not | :23:41. | :23:43. | |
of the frog of the general extinction, the mass extinction? I | :23:44. | :23:47. | |
certainly hope that Emma is right. Absolutely. I think that what is | :23:48. | :23:52. | |
propelling this extinction event forward is the ways in which we are | :23:53. | :23:56. | |
changing the planet. Changing the planet on a global, geological | :23:57. | :24:01. | |
scale. Very rapidly, much more rapidly than most species can adapt | :24:02. | :24:05. | |
to, what we need to be thinking about and we need to be thinking | :24:06. | :24:09. | |
about it very fast and on a global level is how we are doing that and | :24:10. | :24:15. | |
how can we minimise our impact. Let as be realistic about it, this is | :24:16. | :24:19. | |
all accelerating since the Industrial Revolution kicked off. | :24:20. | :24:22. | |
Which has been a huge benefit to human kind. Are you suggesting that | :24:23. | :24:29. | |
we some how diminish the benefits to human kind in order that we avoid | :24:30. | :24:35. | |
something that may happen in a couple of million years time. How do | :24:36. | :24:38. | |
you get people to think about that? I don't think we are talking about | :24:39. | :24:41. | |
something that may happen in a couple of million years time. If we | :24:42. | :24:44. | |
continue on the trajectory we are on, we are talking about causing a | :24:45. | :24:48. | |
significant extinction event, a major extinction event within a | :24:49. | :24:51. | |
matter of centuries, not a couple of million years from now. We are not | :24:52. | :24:56. | |
talking about something that lies in some distant mythological future, | :24:57. | :25:00. | |
and balancing what people need. There are as you suggest seven. Two | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
billion of us on the planet right now, balancing what we need and | :25:06. | :25:09. | |
want, against the needs of all the other creatures with whom we share | :25:10. | :25:14. | |
this planet, the challenge really I think of our times and as was | :25:15. | :25:20. | |
suggested it is not some abstract thing that is it nice to share your | :25:21. | :25:27. | |
planet on with other creature, we dependant on those other creatures. | :25:28. | :25:33. | |
I will ask Emma a question, without any preparation, could you persuade | :25:34. | :25:38. | |
your children to wore and care about -- worry and care about an event | :25:39. | :25:45. | |
that may happen in century's time? ? I would encourage them in different | :25:46. | :25:51. | |
ways, I would say we need soil to grow stuff and DNA. You look very | :25:52. | :25:57. | |
sceptical, but, about, more than a quarter, something like a half of | :25:58. | :26:01. | |
the new drugs found these days comes from the DNA of other creatures, | :26:02. | :26:05. | |
this is really important to us. Plus, people like nature, you know. | :26:06. | :26:10. | |
People actually like holidaying in the sun, they don't want live in | :26:11. | :26:14. | |
concrete jungles. Even the Chinese they have destroyed their | :26:15. | :26:18. | |
environment more than anywhere else on the planet, they are now creating | :26:19. | :26:22. | |
National Parks as a faster rate than anywhere else in the world. We could | :26:23. | :26:28. | |
talk all night on this. Now there is a 97% chance you will believe this | :26:29. | :26:31. | |
and a very much smaller chance that you won't. Politicians misused | :26:32. | :26:39. | |
statistics to their own advantage. The head of the statistics society, | :26:40. | :26:43. | |
the man in charge of guarding the official significants pointed out | :26:44. | :26:47. | |
today that figures given by the Government for spending on flood | :26:48. | :26:52. | |
defences weren't all they appeared to be. Ed Miliband announced that | :26:53. | :26:54. | |
the Government was banged to rights, and no Labour Government would ever | :26:55. | :26:59. | |
stoop so low as we all know. In this four-year period and indeed in this | :27:00. | :27:03. | |
parliament overall spending on flood defences has gone up. Mr Speaker I | :27:04. | :27:08. | |
am afraid that the figures the Prime Minister is quoting are phoney, and | :27:09. | :27:13. | |
I believe he knows it. How is it that politicians are always able, as | :27:14. | :27:18. | |
if by magic, to find statistics to suit their case? Revealing the | :27:19. | :27:25. | |
Westminster's inner circle's inner trick, we present to you tonight | :27:26. | :27:35. | |
Lessons in Lull illusion. The First trip is vanishing inflation. The | :27:36. | :27:47. | |
slight of -- sleight of hand here is the Government hopes you don't | :27:48. | :27:50. | |
realise that money loses its value over time. You might hear them talk | :27:51. | :27:54. | |
about protecting a budget in cash terms, that is what they say when | :27:55. | :27:58. | |
they can't say they are protecting a budget in real terms. That is to say | :27:59. | :28:01. | |
they are increasing the budget faster than inflation. If you | :28:02. | :28:06. | |
protect it only in tax terms it means you are only cutting it by | :28:07. | :28:11. | |
more than 10%. The The second trick is apples and oranges. This piece of | :28:12. | :28:22. | |
conjuring is very switch but very powerful. What you do is you compare | :28:23. | :28:27. | |
two numbers and they seem to talk about the same thing but aren't the | :28:28. | :28:35. | |
same at all. Chris Grahaming back in 20 -- Grayling produce figures that | :28:36. | :28:40. | |
showed a rise in crime in the 1980s, but in truth statisticians knew it | :28:41. | :28:48. | |
had fallen. But Mr Grayling was looking at the way they recorded | :28:49. | :28:52. | |
crime. That was one trick that didn't come off. For their next | :28:53. | :29:04. | |
trick the amazing moving goal posts. This is where Governments just | :29:05. | :29:08. | |
change rules when the data doesn't suit them. Take the case of Gordon | :29:09. | :29:12. | |
Brown, he set himself two fiscal rules, those are rules that are | :29:13. | :29:17. | |
designed to show that he was a prudent custodian of the public | :29:18. | :29:23. | |
finances. When one of them, the golden rule, didn't suit him, he | :29:24. | :29:27. | |
fiddled with the definitions of the data and finally changed the years | :29:28. | :29:31. | |
over which it would count. For their next trick, junk research. Ministers | :29:32. | :29:42. | |
can just commission dodgy analysis. Cambridge University opposed plans | :29:43. | :29:45. | |
to change the AS-level, presenting real research that showed it was | :29:46. | :29:50. | |
helpful. Whitehall officials cooked up some nonsense numbers of their | :29:51. | :30:02. | |
own in retaliation. Finally, just lying claim You know how that works. | :30:03. | :30:07. | |
But even so they do a lot of it. Takes the case of the Liberal | :30:08. | :30:09. | |
Democrats who claimed credit for a doubling of our offshore wind | :30:10. | :30:16. | |
capacity since 2010. That did actually happen, we have increased | :30:17. | :30:21. | |
our offshore wind capacity, but all because of policies undertaken by | :30:22. | :30:25. | |
the last Government. Everyone involved in politics says they want | :30:26. | :30:29. | |
more evidence-based policy. But if we are going to have that we need | :30:30. | :30:33. | |
everyone involved in politics, the politicians, the lobbyists, the | :30:34. | :30:38. | |
charities and the journalists to just be a little bit straighter when | :30:39. | :30:47. | |
it comes to statistics. Chi Onwurah is a Labour Shadow | :30:48. | :30:54. | |
Cabinet office minister with an MBA in statistic, David Spiegelhalter is | :30:55. | :31:01. | |
Professor for public understanding at the University of Cambridge. You | :31:02. | :31:05. | |
are not surprised Governments play slightly fast and loose with | :31:06. | :31:09. | |
statistics? As we saw in the segment, you need to tell a story to | :31:10. | :31:12. | |
get a message across. Politicians need to tell us in the story and a | :31:13. | :31:16. | |
narrative, and statistics are important. Characters in that | :31:17. | :31:23. | |
narrative. The real danger comes when they are part of the fiction. | :31:24. | :31:27. | |
It is the case that this Government seems to be running a kind of | :31:28. | :31:34. | |
culture of statistical administration. Gordon Brown | :31:35. | :31:36. | |
wouldn't have doing anything like that would he? This Government has | :31:37. | :31:40. | |
been written to by the national statistics authority, so repeatedly, | :31:41. | :31:44. | |
a so many times that it is becoming embarrassing. It is also the case | :31:45. | :31:48. | |
that this Government doesn't believe in active intervention. They are not | :31:49. | :31:52. | |
going to freeze energy prices. Get off the party horse for a second? | :31:53. | :31:57. | |
When you believe it should be left to free markets then you need to do | :31:58. | :32:01. | |
more, you have more of a temptation to manipulate the statistics. Do you | :32:02. | :32:04. | |
think things have got cleaner and better? Actually I think they have a | :32:05. | :32:09. | |
bit. I think they have got better. I think statistics now are subject to | :32:10. | :32:14. | |
more scrutiny than they used to be. There is agencies such as Fact Check | :32:15. | :32:19. | |
and Full Fact, that will take people to task, then there is the national | :32:20. | :32:23. | |
statistics authority. When be somebody sees a bad number they | :32:24. | :32:28. | |
write to Sir Andrew Dilnot, it is like going to the headmaster and say | :32:29. | :32:33. | |
David Cameron said something wrong and then he's writing letters. It is | :32:34. | :32:38. | |
a great development that politicians are being held to account for their | :32:39. | :32:42. | |
use of numbers. Is public understanding any better though? | :32:43. | :32:49. | |
Yes, that was supposed to be my job. It is difficult, I mean the royal | :32:50. | :32:53. | |
statistical society has a campaign to try to improve public and | :32:54. | :32:56. | |
political understanding of statistics and chance and risk and | :32:57. | :33:00. | |
how that will work in society. It is a long job, to give them their | :33:01. | :33:05. | |
credit the changes to the GCSE and the proposed new core maths | :33:06. | :33:08. | |
qualification should also contribute to that in education. Do your | :33:09. | :33:18. | |
colleagues have any idea of statistics? MPs represent people, | :33:19. | :33:22. | |
and coming from engineering it was something of a shock to the system | :33:23. | :33:27. | |
to see the extent to which the understanding of statistics and | :33:28. | :33:36. | |
figures and being familiar around numbers is no better than the public | :33:37. | :33:44. | |
average. The fact that what we say tends to be amplified we contribute | :33:45. | :33:48. | |
often more to the noise than the signal when it comes to statistics | :33:49. | :33:51. | |
and figures. That is really important because statistics are so | :33:52. | :33:55. | |
important. I often think about Florence Nightingale, well known as | :33:56. | :34:00. | |
a nurse, less well known as a statistical innovator who invented | :34:01. | :34:06. | |
the Pi Chart and said if you want to understand God's thoughts you must | :34:07. | :34:10. | |
study statistics for there is written his purposes. I wouldn't put | :34:11. | :34:14. | |
it so religiously, I would say if you want to understand humanity and | :34:15. | :34:18. | |
Government achievement study statistics. For example in | :34:19. | :34:22. | |
Newcastle, some areas of Newcastle the average life expectancy is 15 | :34:23. | :34:27. | |
years more than some areas of south Kensington. It tells us. Fewer, | :34:28. | :34:35. | |
sorry 15 years fewer than in some areas of south nsington. That tells | :34:36. | :34:43. | |
us a lot about our society. In a highly educated person like you | :34:44. | :34:46. | |
makes that elementary slip where will the rest of us go. I'm sure | :34:47. | :34:51. | |
that everybody could make slips and what we're talking about here is the | :34:52. | :34:55. | |
public understanding and use of statistics. | :34:56. | :34:57. | |
There is a big difference though between the sort of job that we have | :34:58. | :35:02. | |
got over here and your sort of job. Your job is about clean, facts, | :35:03. | :35:10. | |
data? Yes. Your job is about judgment? That's very true. I don't | :35:11. | :35:18. | |
think you can make a complete split. People who produce statistics knows | :35:19. | :35:21. | |
that statistics have been chosen and constructed. They are not just pure | :35:22. | :35:25. | |
facts about the world. The last unemployment figures in the last | :35:26. | :35:30. | |
couple of weeks says unemployment has gone down 124,000, no it hadn't. | :35:31. | :35:34. | |
It is based on a survey, did you know that. They only know those | :35:35. | :35:41. | |
figures accurately to plus or minus 100,000. People don't know that. | :35:42. | :35:44. | |
That changes almost within the margin of error? Exactly. But last | :35:45. | :35:51. | |
year unemployment went down by 37,000 and a big fuss was made about | :35:52. | :35:55. | |
it, actually you had no idea if it had gone down or not. That is not | :35:56. | :35:59. | |
part of the discourse. People don't understand that statistics are | :36:00. | :36:03. | |
actually constructed to some extent. The argument today with David | :36:04. | :36:07. | |
Cameron and the flooding expenditure, that was because of | :36:08. | :36:10. | |
changing the time scale, changing not allowing for inflation, it was | :36:11. | :36:14. | |
what you included in terms of expenditure, all those little | :36:15. | :36:18. | |
changes meant that they could say they sent more than Labour did in | :36:19. | :36:23. | |
their period. It is not to say those statistics in a sense are correct, | :36:24. | :36:27. | |
it is just what they chose to use. That is why you do need people to | :36:28. | :36:32. | |
look rat these, to take them -- to look at these and take them apart | :36:33. | :36:35. | |
and deconstruct them. It is not a choice between fact and fiction, | :36:36. | :36:39. | |
there is always an element of judgment in the statistics we have | :36:40. | :36:43. | |
useded. You have to use facts to get across developed policy and a | :36:44. | :36:47. | |
message. What we can perfectly agree about is the really important | :36:48. | :36:53. | |
decision that is we're taking now. Say on flood defence but in the | :36:54. | :36:57. | |
future around climate change and increasing population extinction | :36:58. | :36:59. | |
there will be a lot of statistics involved in making those choices, | :37:00. | :37:02. | |
people have to understand how they are used and politicians who have | :37:03. | :37:12. | |
the job of getting those decisions made have to understand them. Can I | :37:13. | :37:22. | |
ask you on public subjects understanding. At what point does an | :37:23. | :37:26. | |
unemployment figure become reliable. If it goes down by 50,000 it is | :37:27. | :37:31. | |
meaningless. It is not meaning less, it is more likely to go down rather | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
than up, but it has to go down by 100,000 for the confidence of it | :37:36. | :37:40. | |
going down. The broadcasting regulator Ofcom | :37:41. | :37:44. | |
says it is going to investigate the Channel 4 programme Benefits Street, | :37:45. | :37:47. | |
after receiving the best part of 2,000 complaints. Yet the programme | :37:48. | :37:52. | |
yielded Channel 4 their biggest audience for the best of two years. | :37:53. | :37:56. | |
It is more evidence of the way in which a particular portrayal of poor | :37:57. | :38:02. | |
people on television has become immensely popular. The people on the | :38:03. | :38:08. | |
Jeremy Kyle show on the ITV reflects the same taste. The old injunction | :38:09. | :38:11. | |
for the special care and reverence for the poor seems to have been | :38:12. | :38:16. | |
shunted aside for the freak show. There was a time not so long ago | :38:17. | :38:23. | |
when the two people you needed and replied upon were your grand show. | :38:24. | :38:29. | |
Years ago the talk show was a careful gassing about the business | :38:30. | :38:33. | |
of the day, and perhaps the little general discussion on such saucy | :38:34. | :38:38. | |
topics as relationships. Then this happened... The Jerry Springer show | :38:39. | :38:44. | |
and others like it found huge ratings success in the 1990s, with | :38:45. | :38:51. | |
an increasingly unashamed brand of lurid personal confession and | :38:52. | :38:56. | |
confrontation between protaganists. My next guests say they have double | :38:57. | :39:04. | |
the troupe. At the show's peak this journalist turning politician turned | :39:05. | :39:11. | |
ring master, he spawned a foul mothed opera in his tribute. | :39:12. | :39:16. | |
# Hope you die slow with Payne The airing of dirty washing on | :39:17. | :39:22. | |
national television format has found notable success on these shores too. | :39:23. | :39:32. | |
The Jeremy Kyle once "human bear bating" by a judge has reached its | :39:33. | :39:37. | |
ten years. Recently Channel 4's Benefits Street brought a slanging | :39:38. | :39:42. | |
match over whether the trove viles of poor people -- at that veils of | :39:43. | :39:47. | |
poor people should be put on television.? ? What does the creator | :39:48. | :39:55. | |
of these shows think about the monster he helped to create. The | :39:56. | :40:03. | |
Godfather of the confessional chat show is here. Are you ashamed of it? | :40:04. | :40:07. | |
The show is stupid but I have always thought the show is stupid. Ashamed, | :40:08. | :40:13. | |
not. Shouldn't you be? No, not any more than a journalist should be | :40:14. | :40:18. | |
doing the news. For example you would make a living, let as say you | :40:19. | :40:22. | |
are a journalist and you do the news every night, every night you tell | :40:23. | :40:28. | |
stories about very bad things and it is very profitable for the station, | :40:29. | :40:32. | |
you are not necessarily helping the people you talk about, newspapers | :40:33. | :40:36. | |
are in that business all the time. You could decide, you could decide | :40:37. | :40:42. | |
only to put well-scrubbed, wealthy people that speak the Queen's | :40:43. | :40:48. | |
English on television and just do that. But that wouldn't reflect the | :40:49. | :40:55. | |
whole society. You are being factitious? No television should | :40:56. | :40:58. | |
reflect, in a free society the entire culture. If all shows were | :40:59. | :41:03. | |
like mine that would be wrong. But you cannot just have television that | :41:04. | :41:11. | |
is like Friends, Seinfeld, all these good looking and wealthy people and | :41:12. | :41:15. | |
you love it. If some wealthy and famous person goes on television and | :41:16. | :41:19. | |
talks about who he or she has been sleeping with, we can't get enough | :41:20. | :41:23. | |
of it, we cheer them. If it is a person of low income we say trash, | :41:24. | :41:27. | |
trash, like they are less than another person. Speak for yourself, | :41:28. | :41:33. | |
some of us chose not to look at either? You do watch television, are | :41:34. | :41:37. | |
you saying here that you don't want television? Of course you watch | :41:38. | :41:42. | |
television. I'm interested in whom is sleeping with whom? I'm not, I | :41:43. | :41:47. | |
watch sport. I don't watch my show I have always said that. If I was in | :41:48. | :41:51. | |
college I would. I would get a hoot out of it. I'm saying we shouldn't | :41:52. | :41:57. | |
be too uppity and say if these shows show poor people it is trash but if | :41:58. | :42:03. | |
it is rich people it is OK. It is not that it shows poor people but | :42:04. | :42:09. | |
that it ex-employments poor people? -- it exploits poor people. I worked | :42:10. | :42:17. | |
in news for ten years, that was exploitation, never once was there a | :42:18. | :42:21. | |
conversation in the newsroom that we should drop a story because this | :42:22. | :42:25. | |
story might hurt this person, ruin their career, ruin their marriage or | :42:26. | :42:30. | |
as you them discomfort. We never cared about the people we did | :42:31. | :42:34. | |
stories on. You were working in a rubbish newsroom. I have been party | :42:35. | :42:38. | |
to those conversations many a time? You are telling me when you run a | :42:39. | :42:42. | |
story on the BBC that puts someone in a bad light, you ask their | :42:43. | :42:47. | |
permission first. No, not ask their permission, that is what you said, a | :42:48. | :42:50. | |
conversation saying is this going to be damaging to the person, that | :42:51. | :42:55. | |
Conservatives most certainly the one? Did you say to the person who | :42:56. | :42:58. | |
was it was damaging and you don't run the story. That happened many a | :42:59. | :43:01. | |
time? That is not true. If | :43:02. | 0:36:06 |