04/03/2014 Newsnight


04/03/2014

With Kirsty Wark. An exclusive on the unpublished report showing that government-backed research on the link between immigration and unemployment is wrong.


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Transcript


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they estimated that 23 British workers would not be employed. Now

:00:14.:00:19.

it turns out to be wrong, our policy editor has a Newsnight exclusive.

:00:20.:00:23.

Cameron's team are keeping it hidden. Apparently this... It is our

:00:24.:00:29.

ambition to be one of the most transparent governments in the

:00:30.:00:32.

world, open about what we do, and crucially about what we spend.

:00:33.:00:37.

Doesn't apply when it comes to immigration. Also tonight, there's

:00:38.:00:45.

gunfire in Sevastopol and talk of the G8 turning into the G 7, is it

:00:46.:00:51.

all feeling a bit Cold War? At the Kremlin-funded TV station, Russia

:00:52.:00:54.

today, things aren't going quite to plan. Just because I work here

:00:55.:00:58.

doesn't mean I don't have editorial independence and I can't stress

:00:59.:01:02.

enough how strongly I am against any state intervention in a sovereign

:01:03.:01:06.

nation's affairs, what Russia did is wrong.

:01:07.:01:14.

Good evening. Immigration is the issue on which the Government has

:01:15.:01:23.

beener rid relent -- harried relentlessly by UKIP. Most recently

:01:24.:01:28.

concerns about an influx of immigrants, specifically from

:01:29.:01:31.

Romania and Bulgaria, has led David Cameron to call for EU curbs on the

:01:32.:01:36.

free movement of workers. Newsnight has learned that attitudes to and

:01:37.:01:40.

decisions on immigration by the coalition have been predicated at

:01:41.:01:44.

least partly on analysis that is flaw and what's more, they know it.

:01:45.:01:49.

Our policy editor is here. What have you discovered? It turns out that

:01:50.:01:53.

Downing Street has been suppressing a very important new piece of Civil

:01:54.:01:58.

Service research. What this relates to is the relationship between

:01:59.:02:01.

immigration on one hand, unemployment among British people on

:02:02.:02:04.

the other. Theresa May is fond of making a strong relationship between

:02:05.:02:07.

the two, but this new research shows that the relationship is very, very

:02:08.:02:12.

weak and that the effect of the extra unemployment caused by

:02:13.:02:15.

immigration is actually very, very small. This is going to make it much

:02:16.:02:19.

harder to make the case for cutting immigration. Imagine your a Home

:02:20.:02:24.

Secretary trying to sell a tough immigration policy. How do you do

:02:25.:02:30.

it? Well, you need a killer fact. So we asked the migration advisory

:02:31.:02:34.

committee to look at the effects of immigration on jobs and their

:02:35.:02:37.

conclusions were stark, for every additional 100 immigrants, they

:02:38.:02:41.

estimated that 23 British workers would not be employed. That piece of

:02:42.:02:47.

research is known in the trade as the displacement number, and it's

:02:48.:02:53.

pretty handy for the Home Secretary. It's hard to make a strong case for

:02:54.:02:59.

cutting immigration on purely economic grounds. And a lot of

:03:00.:03:01.

people oppose immigration restrictions. Some of them are

:03:02.:03:06.

coalition ministers. When the Home Office found a statistic showing

:03:07.:03:10.

that new arrivals put Brits out of work, they really treasured it.

:03:11.:03:18.

There's just one problem. It's wrong. We've now seen exclusively by

:03:19.:03:25.

Newsnight shows new research by the Civil Service undermines that claim.

:03:26.:03:29.

The true impact is much smaller. Still, it's not been published.

:03:30.:03:33.

That's because Downing Street is refusing to let anyone see it. It's

:03:34.:03:40.

simply much too embarrassing. Some Government departments never

:03:41.:03:43.

believed the original displacement research. Internal Civil Service

:03:44.:03:50.

e-mails show the Treasury was one of the ministries where officials were

:03:51.:03:53.

concerned the analysis won't robust enough. The same exchanges show

:03:54.:03:58.

there is a consensus in favour of the new research, also that civil

:03:59.:04:01.

servants think it should be released. One official wrote that it

:04:02.:04:06.

would be difficult to keep it solely for internal use. Cameron's team are

:04:07.:04:12.

still keeping it hidden. A parentally this... It is our

:04:13.:04:15.

ambition to be one of the most transparent Governments in the

:04:16.:04:20.

world. Open about what we do and crucially about what we spend.

:04:21.:04:24.

Doesn't apply, when it comes to immigration. Arguments about

:04:25.:04:28.

displacement figures may sound academic, but they're going to get

:04:29.:04:32.

more important. Immigration reform is a flagship policy for the

:04:33.:04:39.

Government and it's in trouble. When the coalition took office, net

:04:40.:04:43.

immigration into Britain stood at 235,000 people a year. So, the new

:04:44.:04:48.

Government promised to reduce that down to below 100,000 people a year

:04:49.:04:55.

by 2015. How's it done? Well, it had some early successes. It did manage

:04:56.:05:01.

to reduce the net inflow fairly substantially. However, the latest

:05:02.:05:05.

statistics show it's rising again. The Government is now almost certain

:05:06.:05:10.

to miss its immigration targets. This is focussing attention on the

:05:11.:05:15.

target itself. The Government always talks about net migration, that's

:05:16.:05:19.

the total number of people coming here minus the total number of

:05:20.:05:24.

people leaving. Some critics support the idea of tighter immigration

:05:25.:05:28.

controls, but think this is the wrong target. For people who are

:05:29.:05:33.

facing the pressure of large numbers of immigrants coming in, it's about

:05:34.:05:38.

the absolute number and the pressure on public services. The net number

:05:39.:05:42.

doesn't really matter to them. The fact they can't get access to a

:05:43.:05:45.

school place for their child, it doesn't matter to them that some

:05:46.:05:49.

elderly couple from Surrey have moved to Majorca. In truth, there's

:05:50.:05:58.

no single killer economic fact on immigration for or against. Much of

:05:59.:06:03.

the concern about migration is, in any case, a question of culture, not

:06:04.:06:08.

arithmetic. Even so, you can expect a lot of argument about displacement

:06:09.:06:13.

in the coming years. If the Government doesn't keep the numbers

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hidden, that is. I'm joined now by the Liberal

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Democrat MP Julian Huppert who sits on the Home Affairs Select Committee

:06:24.:06:26.

and the by the Conservative MP, Stephen Barkley. The Government of

:06:27.:06:31.

which you are a part would appear to be sitting on data that shows

:06:32.:06:33.

immigration is not so much of a problem and you're part of that

:06:34.:06:36.

Government. I knew nothing about this until today. It's obvious this

:06:37.:06:39.

report should be published as quickly as possible. We should be

:06:40.:06:44.

making decisions based on the best data. That shows we benefit

:06:45.:06:49.

economically very substantially from immigration. Whether it's terms of

:06:50.:06:52.

fiscal payments, people paying more in than they take out in benefits.

:06:53.:06:56.

Whether it's the changes we see here or in terms of employment. We know

:06:57.:07:01.

from the centre of entrepreneurs, foreign-born entrepreneurs employ 1.

:07:02.:07:04.

16 million people in this country. That's fantastic. You heard your

:07:05.:07:08.

leader say there that we aim to be one of the most transparent

:07:09.:07:10.

governments in the world. Clearly that's not the case. It is the case.

:07:11.:07:13.

It's the Government that commissioned this report. This was

:07:14.:07:18.

an area where - It has had it since November. Merely a matter of weeks.

:07:19.:07:22.

I think that's four months in my books. Well, the data is evolve ng.

:07:23.:07:27.

Just two weeks ago, the Permanent Secretary of the Home Office was in

:07:28.:07:31.

my constituency looking at data on the impacts of migration in

:07:32.:07:36.

communities such as the Cambridgeshire Fens. It is right

:07:37.:07:39.

officials are looking at the accuracy of the data, the idea that

:07:40.:07:41.

the Government is not transparent, when they have commissioned this

:07:42.:07:46.

report, is a nonsense. Of course... The Home Office have handed it to

:07:47.:07:49.

Downing Street and Downing Street is not doing anything with it. It shows

:07:50.:07:54.

that the impact of unemployment in this country, through immigration,

:07:55.:07:58.

is minimal. It is quite different to what trees what May's most re-Kently

:07:59.:08:02.

been saying. It's patently not true that the impact is minimal. You

:08:03.:08:12.

refute the numbers? The fact that the civil servants are still

:08:13.:08:15.

refining that data, looking at constituencies like mine, if one

:08:16.:08:19.

looks at data for example from the borders technology, we know it's

:08:20.:08:23.

very inaccurate, measuring the localised impact. You think that,

:08:24.:08:27.

you don't think there's any need to change immigration policy? Of course

:08:28.:08:31.

one looks at the data as it evolves. I'm saying that the idea that the

:08:32.:08:35.

impact on constituencies like mine where there's a big impact on public

:08:36.:08:40.

services, on housing, on wage deflation, on many issues, is one

:08:41.:08:44.

that should not be ignored. It's actually, essentially it's what

:08:45.:08:48.

Chris said, you can argue over the figures, there's a cultural issue?

:08:49.:08:53.

Yeah, there is disagreement about all this. There's no doubt there are

:08:54.:08:55.

problems which come with immigration. Have you to provide

:08:56.:08:59.

support for school places, for housing, all of that. Overall, we

:09:00.:09:04.

benefit socially, culturally and we benefit financially. We do need to

:09:05.:09:08.

do more to crack down on people who don't pay the national minimum wage.

:09:09.:09:13.

There are issues around that. The Home Office, we understand, civil

:09:14.:09:24.

servants seem to believe that the bicivil servants are more

:09:25.:09:30.

pro-immigration taking a position from Vince Cable. The Home Office

:09:31.:09:34.

response was very odd. It said every department is wrong other than the

:09:35.:09:37.

Home theHome Office. Vince Cable has known about this as well since

:09:38.:09:40.

November, I suppose he's toeing the coalition line, is he? I'm not sure

:09:41.:09:43.

it's up to Vince Cable to leak things that haven't been approved.

:09:44.:09:46.

The real question is why David Cameron is trying to block it.

:09:47.:09:48.

That's the key definition. We have to get this right. We need to

:09:49.:09:51.

provide the support. It's worrying when you see the scaremongering that

:09:52.:09:58.

you saw with Romania and Bulgaria immigration. The number of Tory MPs

:09:59.:10:04.

who were worried about that, seem to be like the numbers who came in from

:10:05.:10:08.

January. We need the right decisions here to help the economy. You want

:10:09.:10:11.

to go into the next election calling for a significant increase in

:10:12.:10:16.

immigration I'm sure the British people will give you a clear

:10:17.:10:18.

message. What is clear in constituencies like mine is there

:10:19.:10:23.

has been a heavy impact, localised impact, from what is a national

:10:24.:10:28.

policy. It's right that the Government commissioned research on

:10:29.:10:31.

that. Far from a lack of transparency, the Government is

:10:32.:10:34.

commended for doing the research. But you're saying, no, no this

:10:35.:10:39.

research is finished. It has been from the Home Office to Downing

:10:40.:10:42.

Street since November. It's not an ongoing thing. This is new research

:10:43.:10:45.

which shows that the figures that Theresa May was talking about,

:10:46.:10:49.

increasingly about displacement are wrong. So therefore, do you think

:10:50.:10:52.

the Government should publish these figures? The Government should

:10:53.:10:56.

publish the figures of research which it's accurate. It's for them

:10:57.:11:00.

to determine when that is. Wait a minute, you keep saying, when it's

:11:01.:11:04.

accurate. This is research by their civil servants. Are you doubting the

:11:05.:11:07.

civil servants? I'm saying that as we see frequently on the Public

:11:08.:11:11.

Accounts Committee, that the data is evolving. What we saw in my own

:11:12.:11:15.

constituencies two weeks ago, data for example from the census data,

:11:16.:11:20.

data from the e-borders software is still going through further work. So

:11:21.:11:24.

it's right that the research, as and when it's ready is published, the

:11:25.:11:27.

point is it's the Government themselves who have commissioned

:11:28.:11:30.

this research because the last Government's data was woefully

:11:31.:11:33.

inadequate. Want the Government to do with this? It's obvious the

:11:34.:11:37.

Government should publish it. The data will change. The economy will

:11:38.:11:40.

continue to move. You will never catch up. You need to have exit

:11:41.:11:44.

checks. It's disgraceful this country has no idea who comes into

:11:45.:11:47.

the country and who goes out. That has to be sorted out. Getting the

:11:48.:11:50.

Home Office to run its processes properly would provide a lot of

:11:51.:11:54.

reassurance. I would like to see people coming here to contribute to

:11:55.:11:57.

our economy, students who will pay fees, we should clamp down on abous

:11:58.:12:04.

and all of that. It's taking measures under the antislavery bill

:12:05.:12:08.

to tackle these areas. Both very indeed.

:12:09.:12:10.

The Shadow Immigration Minister is demanding tonight the publication of

:12:11.:12:14.

the suppressed report saying that the British people should have the

:12:15.:12:17.

information so they can make a judgment about immigration.

:12:18.:12:22.

The crisis in Ukraine increasingly reacceptbles a dangerous game of

:12:23.:12:25.

poker in which none of the players has a handle on the game. President

:12:26.:12:29.

Putin making his first public statement today since the stand-off

:12:30.:12:32.

began, said he would only use force as a last resort, just as shots rang

:12:33.:12:37.

out for the first time near evast poll in Crimea -- Sevastopol in

:12:38.:12:44.

Crimea. First tonight, here's Gabriel Gatehouse from the Crimean

:12:45.:12:50.

port. Up the hill they marched, armed only

:12:51.:12:55.

with flags. The Ukrainians were going to take back their own base.

:12:56.:12:59.

They were marching straight towards the Russian guns.

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GUNFIRE We're the masters here, the

:13:05.:13:11.

Ukrainians shout. As they follow their commander onward. Theirs not

:13:12.:13:16.

to reason why. They were warning shots, fired into the air. No-one

:13:17.:13:24.

was hurt. But shots nonetheless, the first in this phony war. Stop, or

:13:25.:13:34.

I'll shoot, shouts the Russian. His warning is ignored. America is with

:13:35.:13:40.

us, comes ape voice from the Ukrainian side. -- a vice from the

:13:41.:13:45.

Ukrainian side. It's tense, they're eye ball to eye ball. Eventually

:13:46.:13:52.

they agree to talk rather than fight. The men stood around waiting

:13:53.:14:19.

nervously. There were rifles to the right of

:14:20.:14:22.

them. Rifles to the left.

:14:23.:14:29.

As they waited, anxiety turned to bewilderment.

:14:30.:14:34.

This is absolutely crazy, it's a crazy situation. We are One Nation.

:14:35.:14:41.

We have one history, we have... I am personally have a lot of relatives

:14:42.:14:45.

in Russia. My father now in Russia after divorcing with my mother here.

:14:46.:14:52.

As the stand-off continued, we went back down the though the garrison

:14:53.:14:57.

town of Belbek. The Soviet Union could almost be alive and well here,

:14:58.:15:01.

except that unity is in short supply.

:15:02.:15:05.

This is a community being torn apart. Many genuinely welcome the

:15:06.:15:10.

Russian troops here. Many would like to see Crimea become part of Russia.

:15:11.:15:16.

But others don't. And for them, the future now looks an uncertain place.

:15:17.:15:28.

This man served 20 years in the Ukrainian military. They have a

:15:29.:15:31.

daughter and a second on the way in. Two years' time, he'll be eligible

:15:32.:15:35.

for his Ukrainian state pension, but what if, by then, his home is no

:15:36.:15:42.

longer in Ukraine? TRANSLATION: Thanks to Mr Putin, we

:15:43.:15:46.

might be forced to take Russian citizenship. Our pensions will be

:15:47.:15:51.

worthless. How will we live then? Or if we don't take Russian

:15:52.:15:56.

citizenship, will they kick us out to live in western Ukraine. They

:15:57.:16:03.

concede most many Belbek prefer President Putin to the chaotic

:16:04.:16:10.

leadership. But they think Russia is deluded. People think Russia is

:16:11.:16:16.

paradise and Russia will make things better but they have the same

:16:17.:16:19.

corruption we have, there's no difference. In the afternoon, the

:16:20.:16:25.

Ukrainian airmen returned from their confrontation with the Russians.

:16:26.:16:29.

Their supporters, many of them officers' wives, cheered them on,

:16:30.:16:32.

but they hadn't got what they wanted.

:16:33.:16:37.

They've come back from their talks with the Russians, they're marching

:16:38.:16:41.

into their own base here, but up there, the Russians are still

:16:42.:16:46.

holding the position on the hill. The men at the Belbek garrison say

:16:47.:16:51.

they'll defend the sovereignty in Crimea, even if it means a fight.

:16:52.:16:56.

The Ukrainians do have some guns of their own, but they are no match for

:16:57.:16:59.

Russian fire power. And they know that one shot from them could spark

:17:00.:17:04.

a real shooting match with catastrophic consequences.

:17:05.:17:09.

Grain re Gatehouse. The international opposition ranged

:17:10.:17:12.

against the Russian President may be all professing outrage and in John

:17:13.:17:16.

Kerry's case carrying a billion dollars to Kiev to help Ukraine

:17:17.:17:20.

stave off bankruptcy but each country has its own agenda and the

:17:21.:17:25.

trick is to work out if the public bear any resemblance to in dealing

:17:26.:17:32.

with arm-twisting of the state. Mark Urban comes in.

:17:33.:17:39.

The wires of global diplomacy are burning and today Moscow was at the

:17:40.:17:43.

centre of it with a detailed statement from President Putin for

:17:44.:17:47.

the first time in weeks of crisis. Speaking to a group of Russian

:17:48.:17:51.

journalists, he sought to moderate it.

:17:52.:17:58.

The tense situation in Crimea which may have led to the use of force, we

:17:59.:18:05.

have only increased security because they've been coming under threat,

:18:06.:18:11.

the military. The media has followed the line that Russians in Ukraine

:18:12.:18:16.

could be imminently murdered by fascist extremists.

:18:17.:18:21.

What's happening in Crimea is a personal matter for each and every

:18:22.:18:26.

Russian, the anchor said on Sunday's TV news. Today, many reacted with

:18:27.:18:32.

relief to the President's more consill tear language. Since today,

:18:33.:18:38.

it all basically disappeared because Russia is no long longer planning

:18:39.:18:47.

anything. Mr Putin said that he only asked for permission to use military

:18:48.:18:52.

force but he won't use it. As to the cradle of revolution

:18:53.:18:57.

itself, the US Secretary of State arrived in Kiev bearing $1 billion

:18:58.:19:03.

of aid and a message of political solidarity.

:19:04.:19:08.

We condemn the Russian Federation's act of aggression. We have

:19:09.:19:18.

throughout this moment evidence of a great transformation taking place.

:19:19.:19:22.

In that transformation, we will stand with the people of Ukraine.

:19:23.:19:29.

Visiting the open air shrine to the revolution's fallen, Mr Kerry didn't

:19:30.:19:34.

just bring that solidarity, he also brought proposals for sanctions on

:19:35.:19:39.

diplomatic and military exchanges with Russia, small steps but Europe

:19:40.:19:46.

remains disunited on the issue. In Brussels, officials met at the NATO

:19:47.:19:50.

and the EU, preparing the way for a summit on Thursday where they hope

:19:51.:19:55.

to give some practical dimension to the strong statements by Britain and

:19:56.:19:59.

others. We have made firm representatives to Russia. The Prime

:20:00.:20:02.

Minister spoke to President Putin on Friday and I spoke to Foreign

:20:03.:20:06.

Minister Lavrov on Saturday. We have urged Russia to meet its

:20:07.:20:09.

international commitments and to choose a path out of confrontation

:20:10.:20:15.

and military action. But the Russian calculation barring an outbreak of

:20:16.:20:20.

consensus on Thursday, is that the Downing Street memo man will have

:20:21.:20:24.

set the tone, that trade relations are too beneficial to Europe to

:20:25.:20:28.

jeopardise by any large scale sanctions.

:20:29.:20:34.

I hope that, together with our colleagues in the European Union, in

:20:35.:20:39.

the United States, we can and we must have solution. But the way to

:20:40.:20:45.

solution is not the way through different kinds of blamings and

:20:46.:20:51.

wrong decisions and sanctions. This is the way to the deadlock. If the

:20:52.:20:56.

Kremlin has paused, it can't be because of the threat of European

:20:57.:21:00.

sanctions. There are otherical layingses at work, not least the

:21:01.:21:04.

need to safeguard the Russian economy which, having dropped

:21:05.:21:08.

sharply in the markets yesterday, recovered a little with today's more

:21:09.:21:15.

optimistic message. Mark Urban. I'm joined by the former Foreign

:21:16.:21:20.

Secretary, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the UK Barrow chief of Russia and the

:21:21.:21:24.

former American ambassador to the United States who joins us from

:21:25.:21:29.

Florida, Nancy Soderbergh. Is there a feeling that Europe is not

:21:30.:21:34.

stepping up to the plate over the Ukraine crisis, Nancy Soderbergh?

:21:35.:21:38.

The focus right now is on the actions by Vladimir Putin which are

:21:39.:21:42.

more appropriate really for the 19th century than the 21st century. I

:21:43.:21:48.

think there were some frustrations that the Europeans didn't

:21:49.:21:50.

immediately join us in the sanctions. They were a little bit

:21:51.:21:54.

cautious and we were hopeful that they'd join us. We have to stand up

:21:55.:22:01.

as a United Front. Your feeling is that sanctions will do the trick?

:22:02.:22:08.

Well, we don't know. Sang shunts sometimes work, they sometimes don't

:22:09.:22:13.

-- sanctions. They never work if there's only one country doing them.

:22:14.:22:17.

The stronger chance to change the calculation of Vladimir Putin is if

:22:18.:22:20.

the United States and Europe act with one voice and have strong,

:22:21.:22:25.

economic sanctions, diplomatic sanctions, move to push them out of

:22:26.:22:32.

the G8 until they re restore a normal relationship with Ukraine and

:22:33.:22:36.

pull the troops out. We have seen this play book before in other areas

:22:37.:22:41.

and we have to stand up to it at this stage with Ukraine. Are strong

:22:42.:22:48.

sanctions taking Russia out of the G8 going to take Russia out of

:22:49.:22:56.

Crimea? I don't believe out of G8, no. So far, I've read, the Italian

:22:57.:22:59.

Foreign Minister's said that's probably not a good option. Going

:23:00.:23:06.

back a bit about 19th century politics in Russia, I think we, if

:23:07.:23:10.

my memory serves me right, it was in the 21st century that the US went

:23:11.:23:17.

into Iraq and Afghanistan and a whole load of other countries, so I

:23:18.:23:22.

would reserve judgment on that. What about sanctions? Effective. It

:23:23.:23:29.

defends on how big they are, how, what's the bite? Well, the bite

:23:30.:23:34.

isn't going to be coming from Europe any time soon is it, Malcolm

:23:35.:23:40.

Rifkind? We'll see whether classic diplomatic discussions with persuade

:23:41.:23:43.

Mr Putin first of all to recognise the need to respect Ukraine Koran

:23:44.:23:48.

territorial integrity and secondly to withdraw his troops back to

:23:49.:23:52.

Sevastopol. If he's not prepared to do that, I agree with Nancy

:23:53.:23:56.

Soderbergh that unless you have powerful financial sanctions, we are

:23:57.:24:00.

not going to get movement and I would argue further than that, that

:24:01.:24:04.

there's a stronger case for Europe imposing financial sanctions than

:24:05.:24:09.

the United States. But that is not what your Government is suggesting

:24:10.:24:11.

right now, it's not suggesting sanctions of any sort. The situation

:24:12.:24:16.

is that America, you know, by contrast, has very little trade with

:24:17.:24:19.

Russia, but the EU has a massive amount of trade with Russia and

:24:20.:24:24.

might harm the EU more than Russia? The British Governments and European

:24:25.:24:27.

Governments are being cautious and we are hoping that a softly-softly

:24:28.:24:31.

approach will work. I'm sceptical but it's worth waiting a few days to

:24:32.:24:36.

see if it does work. The reason Europe cannot rest on that approach

:24:37.:24:40.

is simple. This is the first time since 1945 that a European

:24:41.:24:44.

Government has used its troops to invade the territory of another

:24:45.:24:49.

European state. We cannot allow that to be... Do we forget Serbia?

:24:50.:24:57.

Milosevic never invaded. The actual fighting in Bosnia was by Serbs and

:24:58.:25:07.

Croats and Muslims. Nancy Soderbergh, do... Soft touch is not

:25:08.:25:12.

going to work here. Vladimir Putin is sitting in Russia looking at the

:25:13.:25:17.

US which, OK, giving a billion dollars and promising sanctions, the

:25:18.:25:21.

EU is divided as to what actually approach to take and there's no

:25:22.:25:25.

possibility really, truthfully, of any serious kind of intervention, is

:25:26.:25:28.

there? Well, I don't think we are talking

:25:29.:25:32.

about military intervention. The polls have called an Article 4

:25:33.:25:35.

meeting of miss that toe. You may see some action in NATO to make sure

:25:36.:25:40.

the Russians don't go beyond Ukraine, but a soft touch on

:25:41.:25:45.

diplomacy, President Putin couldn't care less and he's time and again

:25:46.:25:52.

not taken any note us of those actions. The Olympics, that shows

:25:53.:25:57.

disdain for the international community and hutzpah and the

:25:58.:26:00.

sanctions worked in places like Iran, there's no doubt that's

:26:01.:26:03.

changed the calculation and we don't know where the tipping some point so

:26:04.:26:07.

we should come out of that strong, stand with the people of Ukraine and

:26:08.:26:10.

make it clear that the international community, particularly Europe, will

:26:11.:26:14.

not condone this kind of behaviour from Putin and that there will be a

:26:15.:26:20.

cost. So far there's not a cost. If I may. We were sitting here talking

:26:21.:26:25.

about punishing Russia. But in today's speech, from John Kerry, we

:26:26.:26:32.

heard one very sensible line about addressing Russia's legitimate

:26:33.:26:36.

concerns. Doesn't that give us grounds to move ahead from

:26:37.:26:42.

somewhere? Indeed Putin paoutz said today that there was legality in the

:26:43.:26:46.

proceedings, protecting the interests of Russians in eastern and

:26:47.:26:52.

southern Ukraine -- Vladimir Putin No sensible person would deny the

:26:53.:26:57.

welfare of other Russians. Interest in welfare is not the same as

:26:58.:27:01.

invading another country. The crucial point is not to punish

:27:02.:27:05.

Russia, no-one's talking about punishment, it's how we put such

:27:06.:27:12.

pressure on Mr Putin which we are all agreed rhetoric by itself will

:27:13.:27:17.

not do. We saw yesterday how the rouble collapsed, the Russian stock

:27:18.:27:22.

market collapsed, its financial pressure is the one way in which...

:27:23.:27:27.

Could it be rallied? Marginally. Financial pressure is one thing, the

:27:28.:27:32.

modern Russian economy will not experience without serious harm. I

:27:33.:27:36.

make one further point, if I may, and that is that we, it would be

:27:37.:27:40.

shameful if the short-term interests of the City of London or German

:27:41.:27:46.

trade or French defence sales were used as a reason for allowing this

:27:47.:27:52.

invasion to continue without being properly challenged. Thank you all

:27:53.:27:53.

very much. How has the world been changed by

:27:54.:28:00.

these events? What certainty have we had about national borders and

:28:01.:28:04.

east-west access seems to have disappeared such is the flux that

:28:05.:28:07.

even in TV studios aligned to Russia, the ground is pretty shaky.

:28:08.:28:12.

Watch this from Abbey Martin who works for Russia Today. The

:28:13.:28:16.

satellite station is detractors caught the mouth piece of the

:28:17.:28:18.

Kremlin. I wanted to say something from my

:28:19.:28:27.

heart about the military occupation. Because I work here doesn't mean I

:28:28.:28:31.

don't have editorial independence. I can't stress enough how strongly I

:28:32.:28:35.

am against any state intervention in a sovereign nation's affairs. What

:28:36.:28:39.

Russia did is wrong. I don't know as much as I should about Ukraine's

:28:40.:28:43.

history or the cultural dynamics of the region. But I know military

:28:44.:28:48.

intervention is never the answer. I will not sit here and apologise or

:28:49.:28:51.

defend military aggression. The coverage I've seen of Ukraine has

:28:52.:28:57.

been truly disappointing from all sides of the media spectrum. My

:28:58.:29:02.

heart goes out to the Ukrainian people, pawns in a global power

:29:03.:29:05.

chess game. They're the real losers here. All we can do is hope for a

:29:06.:29:11.

peaceful outcome from a terrible situation and prevent another full

:29:12.:29:14.

blown Cold War between multiple superpowers. Until then I'll keep

:29:15.:29:19.

telling the truth as I see it. Is there any such uncertainty for

:29:20.:29:30.

our next guests? Professor Schneider and Ann Applebaum. Let's concentrate

:29:31.:29:37.

on Vladimir Putin here. What is this all about? This is very much about

:29:38.:29:42.

Putin's own personal power. It's about his legitimacy. It's about him

:29:43.:29:46.

maintaining the political and economic system that he has created

:29:47.:29:51.

or that he's at the centre of. What he really fears is not so much

:29:52.:29:56.

Western intervention or NATO, what he fears is what happened in Kiev

:29:57.:30:05.

happening in Moscow. He fears the language of the democratic West, the

:30:06.:30:12.

morals of the West, the ideas of freedom of speech, those are what he

:30:13.:30:16.

fears and this is what he needs to keep out, he needs to set a very

:30:17.:30:21.

strong, make a very strong gesture that this is not going to happen in

:30:22.:30:25.

Russia. So this is the empodiment of everything from the Pussy Riot

:30:26.:30:29.

attacks to his antigay legislation, it's part of a whole owe sital --

:30:30.:30:37.

societal atmosphere. No it's part of his domestic policy. We entering a

:30:38.:30:42.

new era where Russia is roaring again? I think we're entering an era

:30:43.:30:50.

where Russia is talking to itself. Putin is trying to work out for

:30:51.:30:54.

himself what his own ideology means. As Putin gets older, he's becoming

:30:55.:30:58.

less a man concerned only about money and power and more someone who

:30:59.:31:02.

is concerned about his legacy and in particular, about the kind of Russia

:31:03.:31:07.

he's going to leave behind. He is increasingly defining Russia as the

:31:08.:31:11.

bearer of traditional, right-wing values, often radically socially

:31:12.:31:15.

conservative values. This plays in domestic policy in a certain way,

:31:16.:31:19.

but it's been creeping into foreign policy and European policy. Once he

:31:20.:31:24.

defines Russia in contrast to the West, once he says that the West is

:31:25.:31:29.

a homeland of principle and law, but we're a homeland of deep souls and

:31:30.:31:34.

values, then Ukraine means something more than just history or territory,

:31:35.:31:39.

Ukraine starts to be a test of which of these world views is right. I

:31:40.:31:44.

think we're witnessing, among many other things, a conversation of

:31:45.:31:47.

Putin with himself, where he's applying military force, but what's

:31:48.:31:51.

at stake a little bit is his idea of how the world is going to look after

:31:52.:31:56.

he's gone. Because the view increasingly is that he thinks

:31:57.:32:03.

Gorbachev sold the past. He's been making that argument for a long

:32:04.:32:07.

time. That came to pass in 2003, in the accession states when really,

:32:08.:32:11.

then the shift to Europe left Russia looking old and tired. Is his legacy

:32:12.:32:17.

to rebuild a different kind of Soviet Union? I don't think it's so

:32:18.:32:21.

much the Soviet Union. As Tim says, he has a set of ideas and what we're

:32:22.:32:26.

seeing in Ukraine really is a contest between his ideas and a

:32:27.:32:29.

different set of ideas, you know, generally speaking European,

:32:30.:32:33.

generally speaking liberal, rule of law. There was a real clash of ideas

:32:34.:32:38.

going on. He represents one of them and he wants his side to win. If he

:32:39.:32:43.

wants his side to win and it is this deep-seated idea of what Russia is

:32:44.:32:49.

about, then you know, will sanctions make any deal of difference, you

:32:50.:32:53.

know will expulsion from the G8 make any difference? He wants to have

:32:54.:32:57.

that part of the Ukraine, because it says something about Russia. The

:32:58.:33:03.

West is a useful enemy for him because it provides contrast. But he

:33:04.:33:06.

is not the only person who runs Russia. There is a large web of

:33:07.:33:11.

people around him. There are other people who have power and influence

:33:12.:33:14.

in Russia. Whether sanctions can make any influence on Putin is maybe

:33:15.:33:19.

less important than whether they can influence the people around him, on

:33:20.:33:24.

the rest of the country, whether they can change the world view of

:33:25.:33:29.

the Russian elite. Do you think that this is a real stand-off about what

:33:30.:33:33.

Putin says about himself, as you say, his legacy an his legacy in a

:33:34.:33:39.

sense will be to restore Crimea for the whole history and psyche of the

:33:40.:33:43.

country? Do you think he'll stand back on this or not? He's kind of

:33:44.:33:50.

trapped himself again. He created a problem for himself by pushing the

:33:51.:33:54.

Ukrainian government to use violence. That brought about a

:33:55.:33:59.

revolution. The revolution was made by the Ukrainian people, but without

:34:00.:34:03.

Russian overreach it doesn't happen. He may have just done the same thing

:34:04.:34:07.

again. If he pulls out from Crimea, he's defeated but if he stays in

:34:08.:34:12.

Crimea he's also defeated. Crimea isn't really much of a win, at the

:34:13.:34:15.

end of the day. It's a horrible break down for the West, if Ukraine

:34:16.:34:20.

is dismembered. For a new Russian empire, it doesn't amount to much.

:34:21.:34:27.

Briefly, I would like to ask you this, what does what's happening

:34:28.:34:33.

actually say about Europe it isself? -- Itself? Europe is the real

:34:34.:34:37.

subject here, not Putin, not even Ukraine. Europe is the real subject

:34:38.:34:44.

here. Russia, as it exists, is parasitical upon Europe. Europe and

:34:45.:34:48.

Russia are in a bad marriage. Russia blames all its problems on Europe

:34:49.:34:53.

and European decadence. Russians send their kids to European schools.

:34:54.:34:56.

They trade more than have their foreign trade with Europe. The

:34:57.:35:00.

elites put their front companies and all their money in European bank

:35:01.:35:03.

accounts. This is a kind of relationship and the question is

:35:04.:35:06.

whether this relationship has gone so far that Europe will always be

:35:07.:35:10.

incoherent in its dealing was Russia. If it is, that means it has

:35:11.:35:14.

no foreign policy. That means it has no future. This is a crucial moment

:35:15.:35:16.

for the European system, above everything else. Thank you very

:35:17.:35:20.

much. Downing Street faces serious

:35:21.:35:24.

questions tonight over its handling of the behaviour of Patrick Rock,

:35:25.:35:28.

one of David Cameron's most senior aides who resigned after being

:35:29.:35:32.

arrested on child pornography allegations. Newsnight has learned

:35:33.:35:35.

that he was the subject of sexual harassment complaints within Number

:35:36.:35:38.

Ten going back 18 months, but no action was taken against him. Our

:35:39.:35:44.

chief correspondent is here. Just how serious are these allegations?

:35:45.:35:48.

No Prime Minister wants to do what David Cameron had to do today, which

:35:49.:35:51.

was during a speech about austerity and tax cuts one day, was break off

:35:52.:35:57.

and make a statement saying that he was profoundly shocked about the

:35:58.:36:00.

fact that one of his closest advisors had been arrested on

:36:01.:36:03.

allegations of child pornography. There are two areas where Downing

:36:04.:36:06.

Street is facing questions. Let's take them in turn. First, on how the

:36:07.:36:11.

departure of Mr Rock was handled. He was arrested on suspicion of child

:36:12.:36:16.

pornography offences. Computers in Downing Street looked at by the

:36:17.:36:19.

police in the middle of February, some time ago. There's been

:36:20.:36:22.

suspicion tonight in Labour circles that Downing Street somehow sat on

:36:23.:36:26.

this information for several weeks, because they were enjoying the

:36:27.:36:30.

furore around Harriet Harman, allegations over her and what she,

:36:31.:36:35.

who she worked for in the 70s. Now Downing Street have absolutely

:36:36.:36:38.

disputed that. They've said instead the Prime Minister, as he said

:36:39.:36:41.

himself, they considered it would have been completely wrong for them

:36:42.:36:46.

to pre-emptively brief out details of a criminal investigation. A

:36:47.:36:50.

lawyer said technically there's no reason why they couldn't have said,

:36:51.:36:54.

Patrick Rock, advisor at Downing Street, has had to leave his job.

:36:55.:36:57.

The other allegations are different. They go back 18 months. They do.

:36:58.:37:01.

They go back 18 months and relating not to anything to do with child

:37:02.:37:04.

pornography, but allegations about how Mr Rock behaved in Downing

:37:05.:37:09.

Street. He was a close aide of the Prime Minister. He had worked with

:37:10.:37:13.

him for decades, but not just him, also Ed LLewelyn, the Chief of

:37:14.:37:20.

Staff. They worked in Brussels in the 1990s. We understand that a

:37:21.:37:23.

complaint of sexual harassment was made by a female civil vient about

:37:24.:37:32.

18 months ago against Mr Rock. Ed LLewelyn dealt what that complaint

:37:33.:37:38.

alongside a civil servient's line manager. That complaint was

:37:39.:37:42.

seriously considered says Downing Street. Some action was taken. The

:37:43.:37:45.

civil servient was moved to a different part of Whitehall. But no

:37:46.:37:49.

action was taken with Patrick Rock? We understand that the complainant

:37:50.:37:55.

was happen yip, she con-- happy, she consented to the action taken after

:37:56.:37:57.

that investigation. Downing Street are being tight lipped about just

:37:58.:38:01.

exactly what happened to Mr Rock at that point. One source who worked

:38:02.:38:05.

alongside Patrick Rock in Downing Street at that time told me he was

:38:06.:38:10.

never very popular. It was quite odd the way he appeared in Number Ten.

:38:11.:38:14.

But he was tolerated because he was so close to both men, to Ed LLewelyn

:38:15.:38:19.

as well as David Cameron himself. Downing Street are really insistent

:38:20.:38:24.

that they took this seriously at the time. This is tricky territory. Not

:38:25.:38:28.

just because of the unhelpful questions are a distraction, they

:38:29.:38:31.

take up political time and effort. Butch also it plays no a -- but also

:38:32.:38:36.

because it plays into a criticism that's levelled at David Cameron,

:38:37.:38:40.

that somehow Number Ten is run by a group of chums. You need to be in

:38:41.:38:43.

the in-gang to get anything done. Giving up smoking is the easiest

:38:44.:38:49.

thing in the world, Mark Twain is supposed to have said, I know

:38:50.:38:52.

because I've done it thousands of times. The latest frontier is the

:38:53.:38:56.

electronic cigarette, hailed by smokers and charities alike, who say

:38:57.:39:03.

it has revolutionary potential. But the European Union has proposed the

:39:04.:39:10.

ban on these type of cigarettes that would-be quitters like best, the

:39:11.:39:15.

ones with the most nicotine. If it looks like a cigarette and it

:39:16.:39:20.

feels lick a cigarette, that make it feel it a health risk like a

:39:21.:39:24.

cigarette? Electronic cigarettes have seen a surge in popularity and

:39:25.:39:28.

are now used by around 1. 3 million people in the UK. They contain

:39:29.:39:36.

nicotine, but significantly fewer carcinogens. Concern over the

:39:37.:39:39.

long-term effects has led to calls for tighter regulation. A vote in

:39:40.:39:46.

the European Parliament supported a ban on E cigarettes with a

:39:47.:39:50.

particularly high nicotine conebb. That provoked an outcry from an

:39:51.:39:56.

unlikely alliance from industry and antismoking charities, who argue

:39:57.:39:58.

they're helping to reduce death and disease from smoking. One

:39:59.:40:03.

consultancy has gone as far as to argue that the ban on these

:40:04.:40:07.

cigarettes could cost as many as 105,000 lives a year in Europe. But

:40:08.:40:12.

they're often marketed to seem as realistic as possible. Opponents

:40:13.:40:15.

argue that they offer a convenient way for the tobacco industry to side

:40:16.:40:19.

step tough regulations on the advertising of real cigarettes. A

:40:20.:40:24.

quick comparison of the old and new shows a strikingly uniform message,

:40:25.:40:29.

smoking is cool. There are fears that such messages, along with the

:40:30.:40:34.

use of bright colours and exciting flavours, could encourage smoking

:40:35.:40:38.

amongst children. With me here in the studio is the Times columnist

:40:39.:40:43.

and Conservative peer Matt Ridley and Professor Martin MCKee. First of

:40:44.:40:53.

all, Professor, are e-cigarettes unsafe? They're certainly safer than

:40:54.:40:56.

the real cigarettes. When they're safe or not is another question. Do

:40:57.:41:01.

you believe then that certain cigarettes which contain,

:41:02.:41:07.

e-cigarettes contain more than 20 migs of nicotine, there foreshould

:41:08.:41:11.

be banned? I think we're asking the wrong question. The issue is not

:41:12.:41:14.

whether or not they're safer than real cigarettes, but they clearly

:41:15.:41:20.

are safer. The issue is whether the marketing of these products is

:41:21.:41:23.

essentially a way to get around the advertising ban on real cigarettes

:41:24.:41:26.

and I and others are convinced that it is. So there's a kind of Trojan

:41:27.:41:31.

horse for real smoking? Absolutely. What we're now seeing in the United

:41:32.:41:34.

States, from the latest tobacco youth survey, is that the rate of

:41:35.:41:39.

use of these products by 12 to 15-year-olds is going up. Whereas

:41:40.:41:42.

there's been no compensatory fall in the use of real cigarettes. So it's

:41:43.:41:47.

just adding to the smoking tally rather than removing cigarettes in

:41:48.:41:51.

favour of e-cigarettes? No the evidence is that smoking is going

:41:52.:41:53.

down and e-cigarettes are going up. The use of e-cigarettes quadrupled

:41:54.:41:58.

in the last year in this country. All the evidence suggests it's the

:41:59.:42:02.

top way of quitting cigarettes, quitting smoking. It's the most

:42:03.:42:04.

popular way in this country for people to get off cigarettes. That's

:42:05.:42:08.

from a stander start within about a year. What about the idea that ones

:42:09.:42:13.

heavy on nicotine are pretty harmful, they're addictive. Nicotine

:42:14.:42:18.

is addict of. But so is coffee. Nicotine is not very harmful. The

:42:19.:42:23.

NHS website says that these things are probably about a thousand times

:42:24.:42:26.

safer than cigarettes. These are bringing about the end of smoking.

:42:27.:42:30.

You don't believe in capping the amount of nicotine in them? The

:42:31.:42:35.

problem with that is that it would get rid of exactly the products that

:42:36.:42:40.

people are using to quit, so the quitters are going for the strong

:42:41.:42:43.

ones and then they're going down. I've had hundreds of e-mails since I

:42:44.:42:47.

started writing about this from people who moved onto strong

:42:48.:42:50.

cigarettes and then went to weaker ones. E-cigarettes? Yes. Sorry.

:42:51.:42:57.

100,000 people or so would be at risk if they didn't have them

:42:58.:43:00.

because they wouldn't be able to quit. You have the manufacturers and

:43:01.:43:05.

the charities together saying that e-cigarettes are a good thing,

:43:06.:43:08.

because they're cutting the rate of heart disease and related problems

:43:09.:43:15.

all over Europe. No, I don't think that's the case at all. What we see

:43:16.:43:20.

is that, although some people may be cutting down their cigarette

:43:21.:43:24.

consumption, if they are having dual use, using real cigarettes and

:43:25.:43:29.

e-cigarettes, they are not reducing the heart rate disease

:43:30.:43:34.

significantly, but they may reduce their lung capacity. I was going to

:43:35.:43:38.

say, marketing, do you believe that actually, obviously we are not

:43:39.:43:42.

allowed cigarette ads on television, do you think e-cigarettes should

:43:43.:43:45.

face the same advertising ban? Absolutely. This is a way of getting

:43:46.:43:50.

around the ban. These are flavoured with things like strawberry cake,

:43:51.:43:54.

bubble gum, candy floss. Obviously they are being marketed at kids. To

:43:55.:43:59.

be fair, I've seen lots of kids smoking cigarettes, well, not lots,

:44:00.:44:03.

but kids smoking cigarettes on street corners, is that OK? No. It's

:44:04.:44:08.

not. The evidence is, among young people, as well as adults, they are

:44:09.:44:11.

being used as a gateway out of cigarettes. The ads are glamorous,

:44:12.:44:15.

they say smoking is cool. Any kind of smoking is cool essentially?

:44:16.:44:19.

That's not the effect they are havinglet. We are talking about

:44:20.:44:25.

relative risk, harm reduction. The smoking is declining slowly under

:44:26.:44:31.

prescript prescriptive from doctors and so on, but this could accelerate

:44:32.:44:37.

the decline and we should encourage technology that does that. I want to

:44:38.:44:40.

return to the story of a possible tax on sugar. Matt Ridley, sugar is

:44:41.:44:47.

an addiction, we have a problem with type II diabetes. There is a

:44:48.:44:50.

proposal for a tax on sugar. Is it a good idea? It's a mistake. We

:44:51.:44:55.

shouldn't be micro-managing people's diets. People should be left to make

:44:56.:44:59.

up their own minds. Taxes are not about how we micromanage what people

:45:00.:45:03.

do. We should use taxes to raise money... Social engineering is

:45:04.:45:06.

sometimes for the good surely, therefore people are encouraged in

:45:07.:45:11.

certain ways to take less sugar? Indeed. But it's not an excuse. You

:45:12.:45:16.

can't pick this out of one thing and say taxing is the right way. We

:45:17.:45:19.

should leave people to make up their own minds and raise taxes to spend

:45:20.:45:25.

on Public Services. That's what should be the way to do things.

:45:26.:45:31.

Taxing shouldn't be about discouraging or encouraging

:45:32.:45:35.

particular things. E-cigarettes and sugar. Thank you both for joining

:45:36.:45:40.

us. It was the 90th anniversary of the song happy birthday. Despite

:45:41.:45:45.

having been around since the 19th century, the publishers managed to

:45:46.:45:50.

copyright the song and to this day we'd have to give Warner Brothers a

:45:51.:45:56.

heap of money to play it. Since we can't do that, here is something

:45:57.:45:58.

Scottish instead. England and Wales, a frosty start to

:45:59.:46:47.

the day with pockets

:46:48.:46:48.

With Kirsty Wark. An exclusive on the unpublished report showing that government-backed research on the link between immigration and unemployment is wrong.

Plus, Russian gunfire in Crimea, child pornography and the Downing Street advisor and electronic cigarettes.


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