18/03/2014 Newsnight


18/03/2014

News stories with Jeremy Paxman. Including Crimea joins Russia, murder in the heart of Africa, human rights in Saudi Arabia and Nobel prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman.


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Transcript


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Putin redraws the map and extinguishes the peninsulas's

:00:19.:00:25.

Ukrainian identity. On the eve of the budget, does the Chancellor of

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the Exchequer have room to wing a cat. He has obey the economic

:00:30.:00:38.

realities and economic data. In the heart of Africa, an unreported

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campaign of sectarian murder. This is a strategy the outside world is

:00:44.:00:49.

unaware of, ethnic and religious cleansing on a massive scale. These

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are the only remaining Muslims for hundreds of miles around, and these

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gates and troops are all that is protecting them from likely death.

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The author of Thinking Fast And Slow on how to make your mind up. Are you

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good at making decisions? Not very! Shouldn't you be? No!

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With a stroke of the pen the Russian President rewrote history today and

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appropriated part of a neighbouring country. Crimea, he declared, was

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once again an intergrel part of Russia. So much for what even

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European Union ministers conceded are a rather toothless lot of

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sanctions. Putin claimed the border had been redrawn without a shot

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being fired. Not quite, for one Ukrainian was shot dead. Our

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diplomatic editor is in the apple capital of Crimea where the incident

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took place. What happened? Well, late this afternoon this operation

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went ahead, on a sort of industrial estate, the place has been described

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as base, it was more of an office, if you like. With around a dozen, we

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think, Ukrainian service personnel in it. One of many, many sites that

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has been be siegeed these past few weeks. We passed by as it was

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happening, we're staying very close to it. Later on we went back as the

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situation had become clearer and it seems that Russians went in there

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and basically, forcibly, evacuated the place, there was some kind of

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struggle and one man, named by the Ukrainian defence ministry as

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Warrant Officer Kokurin was killed. The others were taken away in buses

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after the incident was over. The Crimean authorities dispute that,

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but from eyewitness reports it seems to be broadly correct. What is the

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mood there? Well, of course, if you bear in mind that most people here

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are Russian and want union with Russia it has been day of great

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excitement. We went down to the southern part just near S version

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eastipol, to watch the speech, it was a fascinating delivery of speech

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and message and insight into his policy and mentality. One message

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for the internal audience, if you like, the Russians, and another for

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the outer, the wider world. The message to Russians full of

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religious, historical and political references, justifying Russia's

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claim to take over Crimea. Of course he said it was an inacceptable part

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of Russia and the people in the of a cafe loved it, there were great

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cheers as he finished his speech. The message to the wider world, he

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was clearly trying to draw a line. He's clearly saying he doesn't want

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to go further, the problem is that some of his messages to the Russian

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audience send mixed messages that will be harder for the wider world

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to read. Can you read how they are interpreting Russia's behaviour?

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This incident tonight, obviously we believe it is resulting in the death

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of a serviceman. It has brought a statement from Kiev, from the

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Ukrainian Government saying that Ukrainian forces have now been given

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orders they can use their weapons in self-defence. If you think about it

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is pretty remarkable they weren't already under such orders given what

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has been happening in the last few weeks. If you think about being a

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serviceman, subject to rules of engagment that means you can't use

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your weapon in defence of yourself. You will understand why many people

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in those bases are demoralised. We spoke to a couple of people from one

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of the bases recently, we got a real sense of the mood in there people

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are dividing. Some are deciding they will turn their coats and serve with

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Russia, others that they have to leave and go back to the Ukraine.

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So, the Ukrainian response to what has happened today has been to say

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that this is entering a new phase, a military phase, but on the ground in

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this particular place, the signs are that the campaign of pressure of

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psychological warfare, if you like, on these garrisons, is slowly but

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surely mopping them up. Thank you very much indeed. When I want a

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decent review of my work I will write one, we're all familiar enough

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with the problem of whether you can believe in apparently independent

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assessment of a hotel or a restaurant or book or film which

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appears in cyberspace. But aren't you entitled to expect more from a

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website assessing healthcare. The idea that patients should be able to

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rate and comment on hospitals is a key recommendation of the inquiry

:06:10.:06:14.

into high levels of mortality among those being treated in Staffordshire

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hospitals. Supposing the reviews haven't been written by patients but

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by employees? That is rather what Newsnight discovered when we

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investigated one such site. Gone are the days when patients were passive

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recipients of their care. They are making their feelings now by leaving

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comments on patient feedback websites. Patients can award stars

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for things like cleanliness, a bit like rating a hotel. We all know

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about authors reviewing their own books on-line, these new system, are

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they open to the same abuse? Nottinghamshire Healthcare Trust

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uses the website Patient Opinion, the Trust prides itself on how

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quickly it responds to patients' comments. However, we have

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discovered that half of the reviews, more than #00 in total, were posted

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by staff on behalf of patients. But more troubling than that, the NHS

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puts these same comments on its own site, but without making clear which

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ones have been posted by staff. Your data has already shown that staff in

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the NHS are reporting data. That is wrong. But the data they are

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reporting is skewing the results. That has to be wrong. It is making

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the data the public sees as almost meaningless. The NHS has now removed

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all of the 6512 Nottinghamshire -- 652 Nottinghamshire reviews. In a

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statement they said they acknowledged the postings needed to

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be clearer about who is writing them and they are working on a solution

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for this, internally and with patient opinion. Patient Opinion

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told us it changed the site to make it clearer when reviews are posted

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by NHS staff by patients. They accept that it must be clear to

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everybody when a story has been added by staff. We decided to

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broaden our investigation to see whether the NHS's new patient

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feedback website, Care Connect, piloted in 18 hospital Hospital

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Trusts is open to the same abuse. We started going through hundreds of

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patient reviews, it wasn't long before they were suspicious about

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some of the comments. "Very impressed with the surgeon, the

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investigations were erformed so eVISHTly, so impressed", "the doctor

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was so helpful, lovely staff", this one just had five stars. In order to

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find out if NHS staff were posting the opinions, we had to find the IP

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addresses, that is like a postcode. We were suspicious about nine

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hospitals, through a Freedom of Information request, we got the IP

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addresses and discovered that NHS computers were being used. Six of

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the 100 most recent reviews came from hospital computers. We also

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found that the reviews posted from NHS computers were more positive. A

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whole star rating more positive than the other comments on the Care

:09:29.:09:33.

Connect site. It was in the wake of the scandal that Mid Staffordshire

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Trust, that Robert Francis QC called for fundamental change in the NHS.

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It was a culture which trumpeted successes and said little about

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failings. Relatives were ignored or even reproached. Our NHS is not safe

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in their hands. But one year on, not everyone is convinced the NHS has

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learned. We have known for a long time that the culture of the NHS is

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one of staff feeling under pressure to deliver results. This is now a

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symptom of that, that staff are putting on results that aren't

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necessarily true and it is interfering with the results under

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the marking system or the star-rating system we have got

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today. That is the thing that we should be addressing. Hospital

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truant budgets are linked to how well they are rated by patients, and

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whether they would recommend them to families. Patients and families

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think the NHS will tell them the truth. It does struggle hard to tell

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them the truth. But if there is an inaccidentive to do little things --

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incentive to do little things, like putting in this story that looks

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good, it attacks the fundamental trust between citizen and health

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service that lies at the core of what is a fantastic service at the

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NHS. We don't know for certain why these reviews are being posted from

:11:04.:11:08.

NHS computers. It could be just that NHS staff are proud of the work they

:11:09.:11:13.

are doing. After all the negative publicity they have got in recent

:11:14.:11:16.

years it is hardly surprising that some staff might want to boost the

:11:17.:11:20.

ratings of their hospital. But, the problem with all of this is, is that

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it undermines that transparency and openness that the NHS now says it

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values so highly. We have the director of patient experience for

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the NHS in England. You have to accept that you can't guarantee all

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the reviews are genuine? We can't guarantee all reviews are coming

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from patients and families, but we are very sure that the vast majority

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are. You can't be sure, can you? We can. How can you be sure? Because

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what was happening in Nottingham is a very interesting experiment

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really, where what they have been trying to do is to help vulnerable

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patients to have a voice. So what those reviews were doing, they were

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coming from learning disability services, they were coming from

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secure hospitals, they were coming from older people in mental health

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wards and what staff were doing was writing up their feedback for them

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and posting it on Patient Opinion. I have read a lot of the reviews, they

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are not all positive, a lot of them have criticisms, a lot of them have

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areas for improvement. The point is the NHS is leading the world in

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regards to patient feedback. It is meaningless if you can't guarantee

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its authenticity? It is not meaningless. If you look from

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Nottingham, the two films are different issues, what you can show

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is that what staff are doing is reporting issues for patients which

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are often things that are going wrong, patients are saying we need

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internet access, we need a better range of activities on the wards.

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The interesting thing for me is that 550 staff were reading those stories

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in Nottingham and acting on them. We can demonstratism improvements. That

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-- demonstrate improvements. But we have no way of knowing, the comments

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are anonymous and we are not sure who is posting them? We had to get

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it in proportion. There are 300,000 comments from patients and carers on

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NHS Choices. You can't tell me whether 299,000 of them are genuine?

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Well, I think what guaranties the reliability of this information is

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the scale. So there are 300,000 of comments from patients and carers on

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NHS Choices, there is 1. 8 million from patients and in the friends and

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family test. What you are talking about in patient opinion is 18,000.

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The vast majority of those are from patients and carers and families

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too. So that kind of scale you cannot gain it. So you assert. You

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just have to read the feedback, it is interesting you didn't quote the

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feedback in the film. The feedback a lot of it is about praise, a lot of

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is about criticism, a lot is about suggestions for improvement. What we

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have demonstrated? It doesn't matter who has posted it,

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what is the point in quoting it? If you look at people have said, a

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comment I read earlier, somebody saying that the staff were very

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approachable on the ward but the activities were quite juvenile. They

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wanted some support in the budgeting so when they went back home they

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were able... That is as pointless as quoting anything else because you

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don't know who wrote it? You do know in that instance it has clearly come

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from a user of that service. So you assert? It is addressing

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shortcomings in the service. Improvements have been brought about

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as a result of that feedback being posted. Now I think what we have

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done is we have removed the comments on patient opinion because the issue

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here is transparency, as you say. We have to be clear that feedback has

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either come from patients or that it has come from staff. And we haven't

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been able to do that with this particular feed on to NHS choices.

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We have suspended that feed until we have been able to sort that problem

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out. But actually the vast majority are clearly from patients and carers

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and families, you just have to read them to see that. Thank you very

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much indeed. In the world of news, with all its drum beat urgency and

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self-importance, it is rare to hear the line "there's nothing to

:15:27.:15:31.

report". But in the case of the vanished Malaysian airliner it is

:15:32.:15:34.

true. That of course is the point, how can an enormous aircraft, packed

:15:35.:15:39.

with living human beings just vanish. Everything, accident,

:15:40.:15:43.

hijacking, sabotage, mental breakdown of the pilot remains

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possible. David Grossman doesn't know, but he's intrigued what

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happens when demand and supply gets so madly out of kilter. Dozens of

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theories have been put forward for what happened to this plane, some of

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which there is little evidence for. There are a few firm facts like

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take-off time, range, weight, passenger numbers and crew numbers.

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The initial flight path and then there are a series of facts that

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just prompt more questions, like the condition reporting system on the

:16:18.:16:22.

plane, ACARS senting out its final signal at 01. 07. Previously the

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Malaysian Prime Minister had said this ACARS system was switched off

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before the crew made their last voice call at 01. 19, that it was

:16:35.:16:43.

deliberately disabled by someone on board, fact not reported by the crew

:16:44.:16:47.

in the last communication. Today however the authorities backtracked

:16:48.:16:50.

saying they couldn't be sure precisely when the ACARS system

:16:51.:16:56.

stopped working, but downplayed whether it mattered. Up until the

:16:57.:17:01.

point it left military primary coverage the aircraft's movements

:17:02.:17:05.

were consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane. That

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remains the issue with the investigation team. It is also

:17:10.:17:15.

important to note the precise time ACARS was disabled has no bearing on

:17:16.:17:20.

the search operation. Accounts of what happened after the last voice

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call are imprecise and often contradictory. We have reports that

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the careful has turned west and been tracked with primary radar. All I

:17:28.:17:32.

can say it is reports, we have all sorts of conflicting rumours at the

:17:33.:17:37.

moment that the aircraft was flying at 5,000 feet, 45,000 feet, or

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29,500 feet. We have the Malaysians saying they think it is the 777 and

:17:44.:17:48.

it takes a week to analyse the radar take with some quite sophisticated

:17:49.:17:51.

software in order to determine that. We don't know if they are

:17:52.:17:55.

undertaking that analysis. The Malaysians say that radar signal

:17:56.:18:02.

disappeared at O2. 15. But say radar experts, it is not clear what sort

:18:03.:18:08.

of contact it was, was it a plotted others or unexpected dots. Malaysian

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military defence system is very modern, it was only commissioned 12

:18:15.:18:21.

months ago. And contains some of the most sophisticated equipment in the

:18:22.:18:25.

world today. So you might expect some pretty good data to come out of

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that military radar system? If they have it. Why haven't we got any more

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concrete details yet from that system do you think, or are they

:18:36.:18:39.

just not letting us know this stuff? That could be the case, or that they

:18:40.:18:45.

have only got the spurious tracks. After that there is one more piece

:18:46.:18:48.

of concrete information the authorities have to work with? We

:18:49.:18:53.

have a satellite report, another communication system on board the

:18:54.:18:57.

plane, autonomously sending back information. That has given us an

:18:58.:19:01.

arc that the aircraft was in at the time that the message was received

:19:02.:19:05.

and we know the remaining range of the aircraft if it had been there.

:19:06.:19:10.

Which enables us to design some search patterns to look for the

:19:11.:19:13.

aircraft. Beyond that at the moment there is an awful lot of

:19:14.:19:18.

speculation. Which leads us tonight, with teams from 24 flayingses --

:19:19.:19:25.

nations searching an area of 22 square nautical miles. They could

:19:26.:19:29.

use surveillance satellites, they are not GS stationary, they are

:19:30.:19:36.

moving around the earth. These are mainly military, they contain a

:19:37.:19:46.

sophisticated radar which is called synthetic aperture radar. That maps

:19:47.:19:52.

everything underneath it. There is one final fact we can say for sure,

:19:53.:19:57.

the search for the flight is the longest in modern commercial

:19:58.:20:00.

aviation history. Once upon a time there was a

:20:01.:20:04.

Chancellor of the Exchequer who resigned because he disclosed what

:20:05.:20:07.

was going to be in his budget before he told parliament. Only less than

:20:08.:20:13.

20 years ago when the Daily Mirror was sent the budget speech the day

:20:14.:20:17.

beforehand. The newspaper sent it back unpublished. Last night you

:20:18.:20:21.

could hardly set foot on a London street without some dodgy

:20:22.:20:27.

propagandaist thrusting an exclusive into your hand and any reporter.

:20:28.:20:31.

Today they came over a bit more coy. They have gone quiet haven't they?

:20:32.:20:35.

It is like tumbleweed out there. It is deathly silent and for exactly

:20:36.:20:40.

the reasons you have just laid out. Last year, particularly, was very

:20:41.:20:46.

leaky and the fingers were being pointed at the Liberal Democrats.

:20:47.:20:49.

Today they have all sort of held back, the only public

:20:50.:20:53.

preannouncement we have had is the very visible sign of the deputy PM

:20:54.:21:03.

and the PM wanting to do this shoulder-to-shoulder. One tiny bone

:21:04.:21:09.

we have been thrown is this new ?1 coin, 12-sided, two colours. They

:21:10.:21:13.

are calling it the most secure in the world. I wonder if there is a

:21:14.:21:16.

subliminal message in there, that the Chancellor can stand up and say

:21:17.:21:20.

my secure pound and your secure money, or maybe, I don't know, there

:21:21.:21:23.

is a thistle on it and they are trying to get the Scots on side for

:21:24.:21:28.

later. But there is very little tangible stuff. What is the theme

:21:29.:21:31.

likely to be tomorrow do you think? I get the impression that the

:21:32.:21:35.

Chancellor is going all out to have a sort of blue collar budget. That

:21:36.:21:41.

might be a phrase you detest. But there seems to be measures that will

:21:42.:21:45.

be aimed very SCOMBARL at low-paid workers. -- squarely aimed at

:21:46.:21:54.

low-paid workers. Bingo will have its rate lowered, it sounds like a

:21:55.:21:59.

small thing, it only costs ?20 million. Which is nothing in

:22:00.:22:02.

Chancellor terms. It is a small thing? But it is played by ?3

:22:03.:22:06.

million people in the country, two million are women. And in a week

:22:07.:22:12.

where we have seen the Eton mess line, the "how many Eatonians do you

:22:13.:22:18.

need to run a cabinet? ". All the stuff about high end expenses and

:22:19.:22:26.

the row over the 40p tax bracket, this could be a shrewd signal by a

:22:27.:22:29.

Chancellor who we know is a politician before anything else,

:22:30.:22:35.

that is aimed directly at saying we need to get those swing voters back

:22:36.:22:38.

on side, the working-classes that Margaret Thatcher landed when she

:22:39.:22:43.

was in power. Everybody budget speech is the

:22:44.:22:46.

biggest since the last biggest, but the fact of the matter is that while

:22:47.:22:49.

George Osborne may be a wealthy man, it is not his money, and there is

:22:50.:22:55.

not that much of it. We take a look at his room for manoeuvre.

:22:56.:23:02.

The Chancellor would love to give away some proper goodies in the

:23:03.:23:06.

budget tomorrow. A big tax cut or major spending project. George

:23:07.:23:11.

Osborne does want to be re-elected afterall, but he can't. He has to

:23:12.:23:17.

obey the economic realities. He has to obey the economic data. The

:23:18.:23:28.

economy is growing again, we are in recovery. But it always takes a

:23:29.:23:33.

little bit of time for an economy to grow back to where it was before it

:23:34.:23:37.

was in recession after it was in recession. This is the shape of the

:23:38.:23:41.

recovery that took place after the early 80s recession. This is the

:23:42.:23:45.

shape of the recovery from the early 1990s. This is the shape of the

:23:46.:23:49.

recovery we are in right now. It is going to take until some time later

:23:50.:23:53.

this year for our economy to grow back to where it was in 2008. That

:23:54.:24:01.

was never the plan. When the coalition took office, it hoped that

:24:02.:24:05.

weak sterling would mean that exports would rise very quickly,

:24:06.:24:08.

that would be one of the things that would power a quick strong recovery.

:24:09.:24:13.

Unfortunately that strong export growth never really materialised.

:24:14.:24:18.

Largely because the world economy is so weak. There are things about

:24:19.:24:23.

Britain's economic performance that economists are quite baffled by

:24:24.:24:27.

though. So take productivity. That is the amount of stuff that workers

:24:28.:24:31.

can make in an hour. It hasn't really been growing as everyone

:24:32.:24:35.

expected it would after the recession. What about austerity? You

:24:36.:24:41.

can't find OK two economists who actually agree about what the effect

:24:42.:24:44.

of the Government spending cuts has been on the British economy.

:24:45.:24:49.

Whatever the causes of Britain's economic weakness, there has been

:24:50.:24:53.

one really big effect in so far as the Treasury is concerned, that is

:24:54.:24:57.

on the deficit. This is how much they hoped that the deficit would be

:24:58.:25:01.

this year, and this is how much it looks like it is going to be. The

:25:02.:25:04.

fact that it is taking longer to bring the amount that we are

:25:05.:25:09.

borrowing each year down is why the Government has already pencilled in

:25:10.:25:13.

austerity well into the next parliament. Still, there is good

:25:14.:25:18.

news. Unemployment never really took off during this recession. In the

:25:19.:25:22.

way it has during previous downturns in this country or in our European

:25:23.:25:26.

neighbours. Growth is picking up at a pretty good rate too. That is why

:25:27.:25:30.

Labour has been focussing its attention on the cost of living.

:25:31.:25:34.

Incomes haven't been rising faster than prices, that means real

:25:35.:25:40.

salaries are declining. But, even that affect may be coming to

:25:41.:25:44.

answered, the Institute for Fiscal Studies says that wages are turning

:25:45.:25:47.

a corner, real incomes are about to start rising. Still, we're not out

:25:48.:25:57.

of the woods quite yet. Yes it is good news that growth is strong, yes

:25:58.:26:00.

it is good news that lots of people are in work. But there is real

:26:01.:26:06.

concern about what economists call spare capacity. The issue is, how

:26:07.:26:10.

long the British economy can keep going at this sort of rate before it

:26:11.:26:16.

starts to overheat. If it is the case that we can't keep the recent

:26:17.:26:21.

levels of economic growth going into the coming years, then it probably

:26:22.:26:25.

means there's more austerity on the way. Don't expect too much detail on

:26:26.:26:33.

all of that from George Osborne tomorrow, he does have an election

:26:34.:26:38.

to win. Don't expect any goodies any time soon either. Here to proVite

:26:39.:26:45.

context on the -- provide context on the budget is Gillian. Let's start

:26:46.:26:49.

with the one thing they are banging on the new coinet's start with the

:26:50.:27:01.

one thing they are banging on the new coin. There are not goodies to

:27:02.:27:04.

give away so they are trying to give away something you can touch which

:27:05.:27:07.

is a coin. It is a gimmick? It is playing to patriotism, it is

:27:08.:27:13.

designed on the 3p piece, for the older voters is a message of

:27:14.:27:18.

security, solidity and timeless value, and a good distraction

:27:19.:27:23.

device. Will it make up for a lack of content in the budget? Really

:27:24.:27:28.

hasn't got a lot of things to give away. As Chris alluded to in the

:27:29.:27:34.

piece, the same problems that dogs many economies today, there is

:27:35.:27:38.

growth in the UK. The OECD came out recently and said the UK economy

:27:39.:27:42.

will be the fastest-growing in the second quarter of the year among the

:27:43.:27:45.

G 7s, the big industrialised nations. The question is, firstly,

:27:46.:27:49.

is it just a sugar high. They have pumped a lot of glucose into the

:27:50.:27:53.

economy in the form of easy money, is it sustainable or not? Secondly

:27:54.:27:59.

does it affect anyone other than a tiny elite. Right now for many

:28:00.:28:03.

ordinary British people it feels like just the rich are benefitting.

:28:04.:28:08.

Do we understand why the economy appears to be growing? That is a

:28:09.:28:12.

very good question. Certainly on the international stage the fact that

:28:13.:28:15.

the UK has rebounded so fast is something of a surprise to many

:28:16.:28:20.

bodies like the IMF. Not least because the UK has been more active

:28:21.:28:24.

in promoting austerity than many other countries like America. There

:28:25.:28:32.

is a lot of suspicion there is a sugar-high, to go back to taking a

:28:33.:28:37.

body and pumping it full of glucose to create the look of energy. House

:28:38.:28:42.

prices have been recovering and easy money has been flooding in. The

:28:43.:28:46.

question is whether it is enough to get businesses investing and exports

:28:47.:28:52.

going to create a sustainable recovery. Productivy growth is --

:28:53.:29:03.

productivity growth is pathetic? If we needed reminding that economics

:29:04.:29:07.

is as much an art as science that is it. Maybe productivity growth was

:29:08.:29:15.

never that high before 2007 was the banking sector was creating the

:29:16.:29:21.

illusion and inflating it. Maybe there is such a flexible work force

:29:22.:29:26.

that companies are hanging on to workers and paying them nothing and

:29:27.:29:30.

unemployment not rising as much as expected. It could be that. The

:29:31.:29:34.

reality is we don't know. As Chris has pointed out. If it is a case

:29:35.:29:38.

that productivity is very low we may have got to the stage where the

:29:39.:29:42.

spare capacity has been eliminated, in which case it will be very

:29:43.:29:46.

challenging to maintain the feel-good sentiment going forward.

:29:47.:29:51.

Challenging meaning? It will be very tough. Either inflation will come

:29:52.:29:56.

back and create a good old fashioned inflationary squeeze or growth will

:29:57.:30:00.

taper off. Thank you very much. Now if you are looking for an example of

:30:01.:30:05.

a failed state, the Central African Republic will serve you better than

:30:06.:30:12.

most. The era of the deranged Emperor Picasso, father of 62

:30:13.:30:16.

children and reported cannibal is over, but the country is now ravaged

:30:17.:30:23.

in what some human rights groups describe as ethnic cleansing.

:30:24.:30:28.

Christian mill ligses on the Muslim -- militias on the Muslim majority.

:30:29.:30:39.

Under the watchful eyes of Christ and his apostles, the battered

:30:40.:30:44.

remnants of a population being hunted to distinction. This church

:30:45.:30:49.

is the refuge for 1,000 stragglers, in an historic exodus from the

:30:50.:30:52.

central Afghan Republic. But they are not Christians. They are all

:30:53.:31:03.

Muslims. Victims of a barrous militia that wants every one of them

:31:04.:31:08.

gone. Many walked weeks to get here, attacked along the way with

:31:09.:31:11.

unspeakable viciousness. This is a tragedy the outside world

:31:12.:31:52.

is barely aware of. These are the only remaining Muslims for hundreds

:31:53.:31:55.

of miles around. These gates and troops are all that is protecting

:31:56.:32:02.

them from likely death. A small contingent of African Union

:32:03.:32:05.

peacekeepers keeps guard here in this remote town. They wouldn't be

:32:06.:32:08.

enough to beat off a determined attack. Though this is apparently a

:32:09.:32:15.

Christian-Muslim conflict, the fugutives's real saviour is a

:32:16.:32:21.

priest. He had death threats from the nominally Christian militia.

:32:22.:32:45.

He argued with the militia, bought them off until the peacekeepers

:32:46.:32:49.

arrived. This man is now an orphan, he

:32:50.:33:22.

watched them go from door-to-door killing in every home.

:33:23.:34:12.

Just outside the town we find the force that he ran from. Fresh they

:34:13.:34:21.

boast from more killing. They want revenge for atrocities by a largely

:34:22.:34:25.

Muslim rebel group that briefly won power last year in this

:34:26.:34:31.

predominantly Christian nation. They believe these cattle, from local

:34:32.:34:35.

herders of the Pearl Tribe, and these women, are their just rewards.

:34:36.:35:08.

SDMRT back at the church the Muslim survivors must clear out every

:35:09.:35:14.

Sunday morning to make way for mass. It is an uneasy moment as the

:35:15.:35:19.

worshippers arrive, it is in the name of Christians like these that

:35:20.:35:21.

the militia want Muslims eradicated. For all the preaching of love, hate

:35:22.:35:48.

has spread through this once fairly tranquil country since last year's

:35:49.:35:53.

rebellion by Muslim-led forces. Many of his flock has suffered and

:35:54.:36:38.

want revenge! It is an extraordinary situation here, on the one hand of

:36:39.:36:42.

course it is an ultimate act of Christian charity, protecting people

:36:43.:36:47.

of another faith. On the other hand you can really feel the tension

:36:48.:36:52.

between the people inside here and the Muslims sheltering all around

:36:53.:36:58.

the outside. The moment the mass is over the fugutives move back,

:36:59.:37:03.

rearranging their meagre possessions. They have been fed

:37:04.:37:07.

mainly by the church, little has come from outside agencies. They

:37:08.:37:12.

can't stay much longer. The vast majority of Central Africa's

:37:13.:37:16.

Muslims, hundreds of thousands, have already left, thousands are dead.

:37:17.:37:21.

But there is no force yet willing or able to evacuate them, they are

:37:22.:37:26.

still waiting to be rescued. Or killed.

:37:27.:37:33.

Saudi Arabia is about to astonish the world tomorrow by reforming its

:37:34.:37:37.

human rights laws. It is famously a country keen on floggings and

:37:38.:37:43.

beheadings, punishments said to have been decreed by God and not at all

:37:44.:37:46.

keen on women doing things like driving cars. So what is the country

:37:47.:37:51.

now planning? Joining us from Geneva is our guest. He's the deputy Saudi

:37:52.:38:00.

Arabian minister of labour. What is the thing that most excites you

:38:01.:38:06.

about these reforms? Thank you for having me on your programme.

:38:07.:38:12.

Tomorrow we're having a significant report. I can say that the data and

:38:13.:38:16.

the reports will show that we have made a very big step and towards the

:38:17.:38:25.

human rights achievements of Saudi Arabia. Most have been accepted. And

:38:26.:38:29.

you know maybe half of these accepted already in and now

:38:30.:38:33.

implemented. I can mention especially with the recent

:38:34.:38:36.

initiatives that have been put in place in Saudi Arabia, the first one

:38:37.:38:43.

is about the ratificaton of 138 of the IOL regarding the minimum

:38:44.:38:48.

working age. The second one is the significant step that has been

:38:49.:38:52.

brought in Saudi Arabia, by signing an agreement with sending domestic

:38:53.:38:58.

workers into Saudi Arabia, and this agreement to protect the rights of

:38:59.:39:01.

the workers. We signed the agreement with the Philippines, India, Sri

:39:02.:39:07.

Lanka and Indonesian. I'm confident this report is making a very big

:39:08.:39:12.

step and the progress is part of what's happening in Saudi Arabia.

:39:13.:39:15.

And you are going to allow women to travel I believe, that's going to be

:39:16.:39:21.

big, they are driving around? Travelling for women in fact and

:39:22.:39:24.

also the issue of women we are taking it very seriously. And we are

:39:25.:39:31.

taking this you know issue as a holistic issue, we are empowering

:39:32.:39:35.

women that only with travelling but also different aspects. Education is

:39:36.:39:40.

a very important part. Also the second one is employment. If you can

:39:41.:39:45.

see that in the last 30 years we had only 50,000 of our women in the

:39:46.:39:51.

private labour market, and by the end of last year in December of

:39:52.:39:57.

2013, eight-fold that number, almost more than 400,000 of our women

:39:58.:40:02.

participating in our private labour market. Are they going to be able to

:40:03.:40:07.

drive now? In fact as I said, I mean we are taking, you can see

:40:08.:40:12.

tomorrow's report we have taken practical steps in order to empower

:40:13.:40:17.

women in all aspects of life. So they will be able to drive? As I

:40:18.:40:26.

said I would ask your audience to read the report tomorrow. You will

:40:27.:40:32.

see that a lot of things have been done as practical steps in our

:40:33.:40:34.

society. When you look at your society now and you think of it

:40:35.:40:40.

maybe 20, 30 years time how westernised to you think it will be.

:40:41.:40:46.

Do you think you will still have capital punishment and floggings and

:40:47.:40:50.

many of the things that you say are culturally important to you, or do

:40:51.:40:53.

you think you will be like western Europe? No, no, we don't think that,

:40:54.:41:02.

we are not just copying what is in the western, we will see everything

:41:03.:41:08.

good in Europe, and we have also our values, and also just an issue. We

:41:09.:41:11.

have taken that very seriously in fact. Saudi Arabia made a big reform

:41:12.:41:23.

in our justice system. In fact that is something we looked at seriously.

:41:24.:41:29.

Do you imagine giving up capital punishment? For tomorrow the report

:41:30.:41:38.

will see that. We waved capital punishment for miners, and for that

:41:39.:41:42.

punishment we are keeping it for the more serious crimes. And also we

:41:43.:41:47.

have a view for these cases in order to see and check about the

:41:48.:42:03.

apublicability for this If bat and ball cost ?1. 10 and the bat is ?# 1

:42:04.:42:09.

more than the bat how much is the ball. All of us answer 10p. It is an

:42:10.:42:15.

example of what the Nobel Prize winner calls fast-thinking, in this

:42:16.:42:19.

case it is also wrong thinking, of course the wrong answer is 5p, which

:42:20.:42:24.

you might get to by what he calls slow-thinking. His book Thinking

:42:25.:42:31.

Fast and Slow has won garlands around the world and sold by the

:42:32.:42:36.

shedload. I went to see him and asked him what was wrong with

:42:37.:42:38.

fast-thinking? Fast-thinking is better at what it does than

:42:39.:42:44.

slow-thinking. Slow-thinking is you know, not wonderful. Fast-thinking

:42:45.:42:52.

is mostly accurate, on occasion it is wrong. Can a snap judgment of the

:42:53.:42:58.

find that you can make in fast-thinking, can it be a good

:42:59.:43:02.

judgment? Most of the time it is. You make life and death decisions on

:43:03.:43:05.

whether or not to cross the street and you make them very well and with

:43:06.:43:08.

complete confidence. In that case I'm bound to you ask you why have

:43:09.:43:13.

you written the book? Part of my motivation for writing the book was

:43:14.:43:17.

to correct the mistake about my reputation. I'm known as a student

:43:18.:43:23.

of human error. And I don't want to be known that way. The balanced view

:43:24.:43:29.

of the human mind is certainly not negative, certainly not in my view.

:43:30.:43:33.

But you seem to be suggesting that on many occasions slow-thinking is a

:43:34.:43:39.

much more effective way to operate? Well, it is the more effective way

:43:40.:43:45.

to operate when fast-thinking is going wrong. Then the only way to

:43:46.:43:50.

fix that, if there is any, is by thinking slower. This is rare,

:43:51.:43:57.

occasionally under some predictable circumstances, actually. When you

:43:58.:44:00.

don't know the answer and you don't have the expertise a thought comes

:44:01.:44:07.

to your mind very fast and those you want to watch. If we apply this to

:44:08.:44:14.

political judgments where sometimes momentous decisions are made by

:44:15.:44:19.

statesmen and they always claim they are acting from principle and

:44:20.:44:24.

generally speaking they have an identifiable set of core beliefs and

:44:25.:44:27.

act in accordance of those and tend to not act out of accord with them.

:44:28.:44:34.

That's fast-thinking isn't it, it is not necessarily wrong is it? No it

:44:35.:44:37.

is not, fast-thinking, as I keep saying is not necessarily wrong.

:44:38.:44:43.

Indeed slow-thinking could lead to paralysis? Easily and often does.

:44:44.:44:49.

But sometimes you get people acting fast, you know, the standard example

:44:50.:44:54.

is I think for the next few decades until there is another one is the

:44:55.:44:59.

Iraq War. But this is a decision made on a gut feeling, which where

:45:00.:45:04.

the gut feelings should not have been trusted. And that is an example

:45:05.:45:10.

of fast-thinking going astray. Do you think Obama is a perpetrator of

:45:11.:45:15.

slow-thinking? Yes. I think it hurts him grievously. He seems indecisive?

:45:16.:45:24.

Yes. The public prefer leaders who decide quickly. So the public

:45:25.:45:28.

doesn't like slow-thinking in a leader. What about Putin, is he a

:45:29.:45:35.

fast or slow-thinking? My impression on what is happening now is that

:45:36.:45:41.

he's acting on emotion more than on calculation. So he's not thinking at

:45:42.:45:45.

all really? I think he is thinking, short-term. Can I ask a little bit

:45:46.:45:50.

about an area of the book where you deal with well being, happiness,

:45:51.:45:55.

this is becoming of some interest to political figures in this country

:45:56.:45:59.

and you propose that there could be a sort of well being index, as a

:46:00.:46:04.

well of measuring how a country is doing. How would that work, what

:46:05.:46:08.

would be in it? My preferences about what should be in an index of well

:46:09.:46:12.

being are not exactly what is being done currently. I would prefer to

:46:13.:46:18.

focus on misery rather than on well being. And I think misery can be

:46:19.:46:23.

measured and misery should be reduced. If there was a misery

:46:24.:46:28.

index, what sort of things will you measure? Oh, I mean you would

:46:29.:46:33.

measure, people can report on how much they have been suffering today.

:46:34.:46:39.

And whether the dominant emotion in their life has been positive or

:46:40.:46:42.

negative. You can count the number of people who are suffering. Can I

:46:43.:46:46.

ask you a personal question at the end of this, are you good at making

:46:47.:46:53.

decisions? Not very! Shouldn't you be? No! I mean you know I should be

:46:54.:46:58.

clever enough and I hope I am to know that I'm not very good at

:46:59.:47:03.

making decisions. So I would not be a good manager, not at all! I would

:47:04.:47:09.

probably not be a good risk taker, but you know I don't have to be so.

:47:10.:47:16.

I'm an old academic and we don't have to make many decisions that

:47:17.:47:23.

matter. That's it, we leave but a bit of noise, the organ at the Royal

:47:24.:47:30.

Festival Hall on the South Bank in London is black at full -- back at

:47:31.:47:35.

full blast. Two-thirds of it have been almost unplayed for years, now

:47:36.:47:40.

it is restored to its former glory and their resident organist couldn't

:47:41.:47:45.

wait to perform the Newsnight theme. Good night.

:47:46.:48:23.

Good evening, for many there is fine weather around on Wednesday, others

:48:24.:48:31.

seeing more cloud, northern and western areas seeing the thickest

:48:32.:48:32.

Crimea joins Russia; NHS investigation; missing plane; the eve of the Budget; murder in the heart of Africa; human rights in Saudi Arabia and Nobel prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman.


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