22/04/2014 Newsnight


22/04/2014

The clash between money and football following the sacking of David Moyes. Is the National Union of Teachers about to turn left? Robots and the future of work.


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Game over! David Moyes is out, but whoever will be in next at

:00:00.:00:09.

Manchester United they will need to perform and fast. But do we all lose

:00:10.:00:15.

out if we are just unwilling to wait for success? We will talk to the

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City financier, one of the Red Knights who tried and failed to buy

:00:21.:00:26.

the club in 2010. Michael Gove, the demented Dalek on speed! Teaching

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unions often want to exterminate Education Secretaries, but is the

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National Union of Teachers also on track to poison itself as candidates

:00:37.:00:43.

from left-wing militants push for control. Technology is meant to make

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everything so much easier, everything apart from finding a job.

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There is no economic law that says everyone will benefit from

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technology, it is possible for some people, even possibly the majority

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of people to be made worse off. And industrial action at 30,000 feet.

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After more than a dozen mountain guides lose their lives in an of a

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large, Sherpas say they won't take climbers up Everest unless their

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lives improve. We will seek the views of climbers who have reached

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the summit themselves. Good evening, the moment the manager

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loses his authority you don't have a club. Sir Alex Fergsuon didn't

:01:29.:01:34.

intend that as a warning to his hand-picked successor, but it might

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as well have been. David Moyes was uncermoniously shoved out of the

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UK's wealthiest club after only ten torrid months in the club. If the

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club's billionare owners ever had much faith in him, it didn't last

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long. Once senior players started to lose faith the game was up. Now

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football is a multi-billion, rather than a beautiful game, who can we

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really expect to lead them? To admiring spectators Old Trafford

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is the theatre of dreams, but not for manager David Moyes. On his way

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out with fans' derision ringing in his ears. Easter is a time of

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renewal of course, but this isn't what Moyes had in mind, his team

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beaten 2-0 by his old team, Everton, out of the lucrative Champions

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League for the first time in 19 years, and looking for a new

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manager. Old Blue Eyes is sacked. So was it down to his failings as a

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leader? I think the leadership of any football manager at any football

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club is critical. That person is the standard bearer for everything the

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players do on the pitch. Now you will have players who will assume

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leadership roles on the field of play. But they are not ultimately

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responsible for the results. It is the results that matter to football

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clubs. And if you don't get the results, then you hit the cutting

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room floor. Cartoonist Paul Wood, whose strips inspired by the

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Premiership appear in Private Eye, have drawn these especially for

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Newsnight. "Actually I'm a bit embarrassed by that one, it was a

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very bad year". We put a huge amount of importance in what the manager

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does. Everyone assumes that it was David Moyes who guided his team to

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victory, or David Moyes who allowed his team to flop and defeat. Where

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does this idea come from? Was he playing? He was just standing on the

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touch-line and maybe giving a few words at half time. We did a study

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that suggested a lot of players can't understand what the manager is

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saying at half time and it doesn't matter if they do or don't. It is

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not only leaders in sport who know the pain of following a proven

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winner. But analysts of management technique say there is more to it

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than personality and character. Business and politics and sport are

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competitive activities. You only have to do better than the

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opponents, it doesn't mean you have to be an extraordinary team

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yourself, you just have to be less bad than your opponents. This is

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where the mythology of great leaders is built up. Arguably Margaret

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Thatcher and Tony Blair both faced enfeebled oppositions at the height

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of their powers. It doesn't mean we were genius leaders or invisible or

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conquering characters t just means they were much better than what they

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were facing. Politicians and share advisers invest heavily in the image

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of leadership. Here are messers Cameron and Osbourne, as men of

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action and purpose today. But the rest of us follow suit, say some.

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Political leadership is absolutely critical to a party's election

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success, all of us as voters put a huge amount of emphasis on leaders.

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Are we right to do that? Do we put too much emphasis on the character

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of a leader, rather than the team or the ideolgical presumptions or the

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interest groups, or as with this Government for example the period

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through which they were governing, or the size of their majority, which

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has probably had a bigger influence on how they performed that has the

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personality or otherwise of David Cameron. In football more than

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politics all careers end in fail arcs -- failure, as Enoch Powell

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almost said. One day you are the anointed one appointed by your

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predecessor, and the next you are out the door with only a ?5 million

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pay-out to cushion the blow. This was, of course, Sir Alex

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Fergsuon's own succession plan, why did it go so badly wrong. With us is

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one of the so called Red Knights who tried to buy the club in 2010,

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Alison Rudd a sports columnist for the Times, and Bill George a former

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fortune 500 CEO and Professor of Management at Harvard Business

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School. You are fan of businessmen, someone who wanted to have a slice

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of the club. In your view was it a business or football decision? First

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of all I wanted the supporters to have a slice of the club, that was

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the key thing about the Red Knights. This is partly sport and partly

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money, the two cannot be separated today. And the key, the drivers of

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success of a club on the field is overwhelmingly the squad and the

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amount of money that is spent on the squad. The key issue for Manchester

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United is that in 2005 they were taken over in a leveraged buyout,

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there was ?600 million plus put into the club, which meant they could no

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longer compete in the way they should have been able to do. You

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referred to them earlier as the wealthiest club in Britain. They are

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by revenue, if you look at their balance sheet they are one of the

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poorest. Because they have got far too much debt which, means they have

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underspent against all of the main peers. The record is not too shabby,

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doesn't this show leadership as well as money matters. Because Alex

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Fergsuon was able to bring in silverwear although they were

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underspent? The people who write about soccer say the management

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accounts for 10% of the performance of club. Fergsuon was an exceptional

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manage e not good at succession planning, but an exceptional

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manager. Overperformed compared with the budget we have spent. We have

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been underspending for several years now compared with other British

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clubs, let alone the Europeans. What is the danger of Manchester United

:07:43.:07:45.

having done this. The whole point of the long legacy, giving Alex

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Fergsuon a lot of time to bed in when he started. Will they come like

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other clubs with short-term attention spans and a short-term

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cycle? That is not bad thing, that is the way football is shifting. You

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can't suddenly say we would like to have a long legacy it was accidental

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that Fergsuon was able to give them that. Wasn't that the point of

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giving Moyes a six-year contract? Yes, but you could also argue nobody

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really, really believed it. What Moyes has ended up being is a buffer

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between Fergsuon, the man nobody wants to take over from, and the

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next man, who will probably be there for two or three years F he did stay

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there for two or three years they are considered a success. They are

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out of fashion now these empires. Most Arsenal fans are getting very

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tired of the Arsene Wenger empire. They would actually vote for a new

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manager to come in, who hadn't been there 15 years. They would be quite

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happy for someone to come for two or three years and bring in silverwear,

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and move on somewhere else. Nobody minds that any more. Bill George how

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do you succeed when the predecessor was so successful, such an

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exceptional leader that continued to outperform, is it impossible? No, it

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is not impossible. But I have an empathy for Moys, who is following

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-- Moyes who is following a legend in Alex Fergsuon. We wrote a case

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about him at Harvard because of their leadership. I disagree, it is

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about leadership and the money will follow the leadership and anyone who

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can win the Premier League 13 out of 26 years and two Champions Leagues

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is a real leader who can align and bring people together. Moyes

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couldn't do. That he didn't get the best out of his players, he didn't

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inspire them, and the result is he's out. It is no different than a CEO,

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you look at how Paul Pullman has turned around Unilever because of

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his leadership. He has to perform too, that is what is happening.

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Arsene Wenger has performed and it is a big challenge now for

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Manchester United to find someone who can take it back to the levels

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Sir Alex guided the club to and made it the most successful club in the

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world. Why are successful leaders often so bad for planning what

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happens after them. We have seen company after company after company,

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Apple, Microsoft, Tesco's here in the UK, many struggle after the

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superstar boss moves on? First of all it shouldn't be his call, it

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should be the board's call to bring in the right leader and find the

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right person. Look at what Chelsea did going after Jose Mourinho, they

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wanted a winner, and they got a winner. I think the same thing will

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happen after here. It is hard to follow a legend, it is hard to carry

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on. It is a challenge, but it can be done. It was done in Novartis and

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General Electric. It can be done here. Look at what is happening in

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Bayern Munich, not shabby club, and look Pep Guardiola has put together

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an undefeated season. They finally lost and it will be a great game

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this week, but you are seeing what leadership really matters whether it

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is in football or in business or in Government or in life. Leaders

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matter and the kind of leadership Sir Alex represented is far superior

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to what David Moyes unfortunately represented, so we're going to have

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to find new leadership here. What do you say to that? Under your view a

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big part of the problem at Manchester United is the structure

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of the whole thing? Well, it is both, I don't want to create a

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disagreement where there isn't one, essentially today there are

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eight-to-ten clubs that dominate in Europe, arguably four, and they are

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dominant because of money. It is economics that drives that. You have

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a small number of leaders who have emerged as the top managers and

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Theroux Tating around the clubs and they are succeeding each other at

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different clubs and United made the mistake of appointing somebody who

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had never won anything. He was not a proven leader at all. In that sense

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it was a mistake. Now in terms of models of football clubs, there are

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four models of football clubs in Europe, there is the supporter-based

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club, Barcelona, ideally. There is the German model, 50% owned by

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supporters and 50 plus one owned by the supporter, there is the

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benefactor model, which is most British clerks somebody puts in a

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lot of money. There is the malafactor money, Liverpool and

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historically Manchester United, they are unique, the money is taken out

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of the club. All of those models have successful clubs? You can

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decline for many years like Liverpool if you have the wrong

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ownership. In United's case it is a great irony, in the NFL you have a

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limited to the amount of debt in a club $150 million. The only two

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clubs in Europe which have had leveraged buyout, Liverpool and

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Manchester United. They were taken over by Americans applying financial

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market real practices to a community-based activity. What are

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the lessons from how this is handled, it was said that it was a

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mistake to hire Moyes because he hadn't won anything. Are there wider

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lessons here? Yeah, people have to acknowledge football is changing. We

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have entered a clipboard manager revolution, to be honest. You can

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come through as a younger manager, you don't necessarily have to do the

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"I have got my trophies to show you routine", but you can say "I've done

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my homework". Jose Mourinho at Chelsea is the ultimate example. You

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don't have to have a stellar playing career, but you need to show a

:13:30.:13:33.

passion, and you have the star quality to pull it off. They are

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popping up all over the place managers. People know as managers

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that is what they are good at. They are not people you remember holding

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up a trophy at Wembley, they never did. That but they were good at

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going into people's office, doing the homework, learning from the

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greats and putting a package together. Paul, finally to you,

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whoever the next manager is would you and your comrade who is were

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part of the Red Knights bid, would you consider putting in another

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deal? It has to be the right price and with the supporters. The idea is

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that the supporters have a say in the affairs of their club. At the

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moment Manchester United's owners hardly even set foot in man Chester.

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If you do come back to us. I agree with that Paul. That's all we have

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time for, but Bill George in America, Paul Marshall and Alison

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Rudd thank you for coming in. The Geneva deal struck last Weir

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over Ukraine already looked unconvincing, but tonight it feels

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almost like it wasn't even worth the paper it was writ on. The acting

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President has relaunched military operations against the pro-Russian

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sim thighesers in the east of the country. Oleksandr Turchynov's

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decision came after a politician from his own party was found dead,

:14:50.:14:53.

appearing to have been tortured. What does this announcement tonight

:14:54.:14:59.

mean? How important is it? The Geneva deal was meant to have given

:15:00.:15:06.

a road map for de-escalation of the crisis. Now it forms almost a point

:15:07.:15:12.

for new recriminations. The signatories agreed to restrain from

:15:13.:15:23.

violence and terrorist acts. Now you have this anti-terrorist action

:15:24.:15:25.

being launched in response to two murdered officials. You have Ukraine

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saying its National Guard battalion, these are the activists, they are in

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the east and ready to start the operation. And you have new

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rhetorical attacks today from the acting Prime Minister, Arseniy

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Yatsenyuk. "In this century and in the world we

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live in, no-one should be able to act like gangsters".

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What about the allegations that Russian forces have been directly

:15:59.:16:02.

involved in eastern Ukraine? There are two sides to the story, and

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nobody is taking the Geneva agreement seriously. The Russian

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side was expected by the EU, the US, the Ukrainians to vacate Government

:16:11.:16:13.

buildings, which they haven't done over the weekend. They have also

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been presenting new evidence, gathered by Ukrainian Security

:16:19.:16:21.

Services and amateur sleuths, that groups from Russian military

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intelligence, the GRU Special Forces have been active in fermenting this

:16:27.:16:31.

trouble. Now today some new pictures appeared, these two individuals

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here, and the beard-spotters, if we may call them that in Ukraine, have

:16:38.:16:42.

tied them to images which they have previously harvested from social

:16:43.:16:46.

media. If we look back at the next image we can see in the bottom of

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the screen, two photos, taken of a Russian GRU Special Forces unit

:16:54.:16:56.

before this whole Ukrainian crisis started up, on an exercise in

:16:57.:17:00.

Russia. Which the Ukrainians say those two individuals we first saw

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can be spotted in those pictures. They have also tied these

:17:05.:17:09.

individuals, if we look further on here, to an operation, one of them

:17:10.:17:12.

in particular on the left of the screen there, to an operation in

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Georgia in 2008. Their argument is this is not just spontaneous,

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co-ordination and key roles are being played by Russian troops,

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belonging to this special unit, and that's a view that America buys, for

:17:27.:17:33.

example today the US Vice President in Kiev, Joe Biden. We call on

:17:34.:17:40.

Russia to stop supporting men, hiding behind masks in unmarked

:17:41.:17:46.

uniforms, sewing unrest in eastern Ukraine. And there are also reports

:17:47.:17:52.

tonight that American journalists is being held. That will inflame things

:17:53.:17:58.

further? There have been two Ukrainian journalists detained and

:17:59.:18:04.

tonight, a man called Simon from Vice News, he has contributed to

:18:05.:18:08.

this programme. He is said to have been detained, it is said to be a

:18:09.:18:12.

provocative act. But they would see it as a response to the visit of the

:18:13.:18:19.

Vice President to Kiev. The National Union of Teachers'

:18:20.:18:22.

members traditionally spend Easter enjoying each other's company at

:18:23.:18:26.

their annual meeting. This week they confirmed yet again they are going

:18:27.:18:30.

on strike, and yet again they confirmed they de despised Michael

:18:31.:18:34.

Gove, the Education Secretary. Nothing new there, but the union is

:18:35.:18:38.

the closest thing teachers have to an official voice. And they are

:18:39.:18:42.

considering elect Agnew General Secretary from what was once called

:18:43.:18:51.

the militant tendency. Who wouldn't have wanted a day out

:18:52.:18:55.

in Brighton this weekend, thousands of teachers certainly did, they were

:18:56.:18:59.

in town for the National Union of Teachers' conference. But, while

:19:00.:19:03.

these people relax by the seaside, the biggest teaching union was

:19:04.:19:07.

inside debating pensions, pay and workload. And, if you read between

:19:08.:19:12.

the lines they were also arguing about whether they want their union

:19:13.:19:18.

to be led by the ultra left. Turning up to the conference it is pretty

:19:19.:19:22.

obvious that some unusual political groups are strongly represented. The

:19:23.:19:27.

hard left has now built up a majority on the union's executive.

:19:28.:19:31.

There is an element of the People's Front of Judea and the Judean

:19:32.:19:37.

People's Front for some of it. People like the Socialist Workers'

:19:38.:19:44.

Party, the SocialIst Party, and the alliance for liberty are well

:19:45.:19:47.

represented. When you get them into the conference room, many are

:19:48.:19:52.

unsubtle about their radicalism. Not even their language is moderate.

:19:53.:19:58.

Michael Gove, the demented Dalek on speed, who wants to exterminate

:19:59.:20:01.

anything good in education that came along since the 1950s! I would

:20:02.:20:08.

submit that teachers never like to withdraw their labour. This former

:20:09.:20:12.

NUT General Secretary fought the hard left for his whole career, but,

:20:13.:20:16.

he says, its current domination of the union is something quite new.

:20:17.:20:22.

When I first came to the union, you had a prominent Conservative who had

:20:23.:20:27.

been the treasurer, the President became a treasurer, he had another

:20:28.:20:30.

honour as President. Within the membership in various parts of the

:20:31.:20:35.

country some quite strong Conservative membership, they

:20:36.:20:38.

haven't all gone away. What they are not doing is playing as big a part

:20:39.:20:42.

in the union as they used to. I think because of the discontents

:20:43.:20:45.

within the profession, and the pressure us on the profession, and

:20:46.:20:51.

NUT members, it is still a very large membership, are such that they

:20:52.:20:56.

are not turning up to meeting and voting on the scale they should.

:20:57.:21:01.

Which only helps the more extreme left and the moderate left has lost

:21:02.:21:10.

some ground as well. Surveys show teachers are a bit more left of

:21:11.:21:15.

centre than most. But they include a sizeable minority of Conservatives

:21:16.:21:19.

and UKIP voters. That is definitely not reflected at the NUT. Senior NUT

:21:20.:21:24.

officials say because their union is the largest teachers' union, that

:21:25.:21:27.

makes them is a particular target for some hard left groups. And

:21:28.:21:36.

things may be about to get more extreme. This summer the General

:21:37.:21:40.

Secretary, Christine Blower, will need to fight to keep her role.

:21:41.:21:44.

She's on the hard left herself, but is being challenged from her own

:21:45.:21:49.

left-wing, by Martin Powell Davies, he's part of the Socialist Party,

:21:50.:21:53.

the group once known as the militant tendency. What we are debating this

:21:54.:21:59.

afternoon is my idea and others who support me, is that you can't simply

:22:00.:22:04.

have occasional one-day protest strikes, you actually need to step

:22:05.:22:09.

one a calendar and series of strikes until the Government has to take

:22:10.:22:13.

notice. That is what we are ever. After. He thinks the public would

:22:14.:22:19.

support longer strikes? I would say if you are on in London on the day

:22:20.:22:25.

of the tube strikes you would see the big amount of support. Everyone

:22:26.:22:29.

knows pay is cut and jobs are under threat, people respect people who

:22:30.:22:32.

will stand up for themselves and good luck to them. That is what we

:22:33.:22:37.

found on the picket lines on March 26th. Mr Powell Davies sun likely to

:22:38.:22:43.

win, but de-- is unlikely to win, but it has already become a battle

:22:44.:22:46.

between organised hard left factions. These people, leaping up

:22:47.:22:50.

are so called floor managers, they are a so called whip for one of the

:22:51.:22:54.

factions. They call votes that allow their blocks to manage the pace of

:22:55.:23:00.

debate. Fred Jarvis thinks that at root it is union members' lack of

:23:01.:23:03.

interest that is helping to give these groups a free rein. In my time

:23:04.:23:11.

there was hardly ever an occasion when you had candidates who returned

:23:12.:23:16.

unopposed, this time there are about 20. Returned unopposed. Some of them

:23:17.:23:22.

from the ultra left. This is reminiscent to me of student

:23:23.:23:28.

politics? Not in my time. When I ran the NUS, I ran against a communist

:23:29.:23:35.

and we beat them. The unions' revolutionary zeal has already led

:23:36.:23:41.

several NUT moderates to leave in he can SAS persituation racial. --

:23:42.:23:45.

exasperation, more strikes and militancy they say will upset

:23:46.:23:49.

parents. And while the NUT has picked fights on pensions and pay,

:23:50.:23:53.

it really isn't winning them. They ask who exactly are they

:23:54.:23:58.

representing? With us to debate that are our

:23:59.:24:01.

guest, we have the deputy General Secretary of the NUT, and John Blake

:24:02.:24:07.

one of the prominent NUT moderates who has recently left over precisely

:24:08.:24:12.

these kinds of concerns. Kevin, listening to that, hearing again

:24:13.:24:15.

that the NUT is planning to strike, hearing again that they are

:24:16.:24:18.

resisting basically all the Government's changes, and hearing

:24:19.:24:23.

that there are militants standing. Parents would be forgiven for

:24:24.:24:27.

thinking you are obsessed with your own left-wing politics rather than

:24:28.:24:30.

standards in the classroom and what is best for children? Well, if that

:24:31.:24:35.

was the entirely accurate picture of the weekend, maybe they would have

:24:36.:24:38.

justification. We spent time debating whether four is too young

:24:39.:24:43.

to test children. We have been debating the questions of primary

:24:44.:24:46.

curriculum and assessment. We are debating that Michael Gove is giving

:24:47.:24:51.

?45 million to the Harris Academy chain. And voting to strike again

:24:52.:24:55.

and hearing from militants who are planning to stand as candidates, you

:24:56.:25:00.

are still advocating policies like, that suggesting that Bob Crow is a

:25:01.:25:04.

good model? We have been discussing further strike action. You have to

:25:05.:25:07.

understand why that is. Since Michael Gove came to power eacher

:25:08.:25:15.

workloads have gone up by 10-20%. Those extra hours primary teachers

:25:16.:25:21.

are working 60 hours a week. The extra hours are not spent on

:25:22.:25:24.

preparing exciting lessons for children. John is one of the

:25:25.:25:28.

moderates, we believe you were forced out because of the rising

:25:29.:25:31.

tide of militancy, what is your experience? My experience is, I

:25:32.:25:37.

joined in 2005, it was an organisation then thinly tethered to

:25:38.:25:44.

reality. By the time I left it had detatched itself entirely.

:25:45.:25:46.

Conference is extremely unpleasant. If you are not willing to walk in

:25:47.:25:51.

the orthodoxy of the NUT it is a very narrow idea of what it means to

:25:52.:25:55.

be left-wing, of what it means to be a teacher, and what it means to be a

:25:56.:25:59.

teacher-activist. I give you one example, I gave a speech at one

:26:00.:26:03.

conference in which I suggested that a group of teachers talking about

:26:04.:26:06.

going out on a general strike was not helpful to the union or Labour

:26:07.:26:11.

movement, and I was denounced and denounced by the leader of the

:26:12.:26:15.

moderate fraction on the executive as outrageously right-wing. It is

:26:16.:26:20.

ridiculous. Are you proud of that someone saying they can't stand up

:26:21.:26:23.

and say what they say? I don't recognise that, John was the NUT rep

:26:24.:26:29.

where I was branch secretary. I encouraged John on to the local

:26:30.:26:34.

community and into the party because we are a broad church. John has

:26:35.:26:38.

decided to leave the NUT. Is it a broad church? I will say this about

:26:39.:26:43.

Kevin and Kevin is a very kind and generous trade union activist, but

:26:44.:26:46.

the branch where we were both members, after I went to conference

:26:47.:26:50.

the first time attempted to bring in a motion to ban people speaking on

:26:51.:26:55.

issues that had been predecided in tiny meetings that took place long

:26:56.:26:59.

before conference started. Who then is the NUT representing? If there is

:27:00.:27:04.

no place for moderates like John, which clearly he feels seriously

:27:05.:27:11.

there is not. Who do you purport to be representing? John has chosen to

:27:12.:27:15.

leave, he's not just criticising the NUT, it is the NASWT, saying that it

:27:16.:27:22.

was wrong to say teacher morale is so low. Generally teachers are being

:27:23.:27:27.

represented by the NUT, the voice of the teacher in classrooms around

:27:28.:27:32.

England and Wales is being represented effectively, and you

:27:33.:27:35.

have not been able to block academy schools, which you wanted, or free

:27:36.:27:38.

schools, and the pension and pay policies going ahead? We have

:27:39.:27:42.

representation in the free schools and in the academies, our joint

:27:43.:27:47.

strike action with the ATL improved the position on pensions. The joint

:27:48.:27:54.

boycott of the Sats with the NHT has worked to a point. We have stopped

:27:55.:28:02.

teacher review bodies and damaging teacher relations. It was a huge

:28:03.:28:06.

setback for Michael Gove for that body to go back in the way it did.

:28:07.:28:11.

Kevin is massively overstating the case, striking with the ATL made

:28:12.:28:14.

slight and important differences to the pension campaign, but it was

:28:15.:28:18.

Kevin and others who decided the NUT would carry that on to this point

:28:19.:28:22.

where it is another round of strike action, but because they didn't get

:28:23.:28:25.

very far on pensions we will add something else into it, this time it

:28:26.:28:29.

will be about workload or something else. It is not the case that the

:28:30.:28:38.

sats point and the NASWHT won't working with the NUT on certain

:28:39.:28:42.

things. Because the NUT is in a militant position and detatched from

:28:43.:28:46.

teachers, classroom and the mainstream of politics completely.

:28:47.:28:50.

He's completely wrong about them not being wanting to work to with us. I

:28:51.:28:55.

would like to put a particular point to you John. As a union and

:28:56.:29:00.

membership organisation isn't it, however, entirely the NUT's role to

:29:01.:29:07.

be bolshi, and radical in order to affect change. Maybe your party

:29:08.:29:11.

because you represent Labour teachers was doing a better job of

:29:12.:29:16.

opposing reforms, then you wouldn't have been to be so spiky. In one

:29:17.:29:24.

sense you are correct, it is their problem if the they wondered off and

:29:25.:29:31.

have no political power. But we are seen as a represent voice by the

:29:32.:29:35.

public and teachers, we need a voice that is sensible and capable of

:29:36.:29:38.

engaging with Government policy and being proactive and forward

:29:39.:29:41.

thinking. You talked about the overwhelming opposition to

:29:42.:29:45.

academies, there are thousands who work in academies, where are they

:29:46.:29:50.

getting the representation. They are represented at conference. When was

:29:51.:29:54.

the last time f you can remember, that the NUT actually supported a

:29:55.:29:58.

Government policy? Let me turn it round and ask when was the last time

:29:59.:30:01.

that Michael Gove listened to his critics. We are asking you the last

:30:02.:30:05.

time you supported his policy, maybe it was under the last Government? We

:30:06.:30:12.

supported Michael Gove when he said that teachers would be given

:30:13.:30:15.

anonymity for accusations by children. That was in 2010. We

:30:16.:30:20.

didn't support in closing down the London challenge, we don't support

:30:21.:30:25.

the radical expansion of academies with no evidence. He decries his

:30:26.:30:30.

opponent as the blob, and that is why teachers are so angry with him.

:30:31.:30:41.

Worried about your job, two American academics think nearly all of us

:30:42.:30:47.

should be, what they say call is the second machine age is upon us. The

:30:48.:30:51.

first time round was disastrous if you worked with your hand. The first

:30:52.:30:56.

moderate census said we worked the land or fished the seas, today that

:30:57.:31:00.

is one per cent. Because the machines took all the muscled jobs.

:31:01.:31:04.

In their place technology created huge numbers of roles where you have

:31:05.:31:10.

to use your brain. Now they account for 80% of UK employment. A new book

:31:11.:31:15.

out of MIT in Boston says the machines in the shape of robots and

:31:16.:31:20.

computers are about to destroy most of these jobs, with profound impact

:31:21.:31:33.

on our society and economy. This is how we used to think robots

:31:34.:31:37.

would takeover the earth. In reality, well it could be far

:31:38.:31:44.

scarier. Because this time the robots are after our jobs. Science

:31:45.:31:52.

has invented a new mechanical Helpmate for the former. Machines

:31:53.:31:56.

have been gathering up human jobs for centuries, now some believe we

:31:57.:32:00.

are creating a huge time of mass redundancy created by technology. I

:32:01.:32:06.

have come to MIT to meet two professors who believe we are at the

:32:07.:32:12.

point where future is very different with blistering speed. Because of

:32:13.:32:16.

technology they believe many of the jobs we depend on are simply going

:32:17.:32:22.

to disappear. Andrew and Eric have called their book The Second Machine

:32:23.:32:26.

Age, and it has policy makers worried. The reason we called the

:32:27.:32:32.

book what we did, it was a direct reference to the Industrial

:32:33.:32:36.

Revolution where the limitations of our muscles were augmented or even

:32:37.:32:42.

eliminated by the steam engine and the internal combustian engine.

:32:43.:32:49.

Today we are doing much the same for our brains for cognitive tasks. What

:32:50.:32:54.

is driving the change is the exponential rise in computing power.

:32:55.:32:58.

Today's consumer electronics would have been classed as super computers

:32:59.:33:06.

a couple of decades ago. When there are dozens of super computers around

:33:07.:33:10.

the world and they are all connected there is an explosion of data. It

:33:11.:33:14.

puts us in a place we have never been before, and that is why we are

:33:15.:33:18.

seeing the crazy science fiction advances coming now. Crazy science

:33:19.:33:24.

fiction advances like cars that can drive themselves, thought impossible

:33:25.:33:27.

just a decade ago. Not great news for lorry drivers. Crazy science

:33:28.:33:37.

fiction advances likes Baxter, a robot worker made by Re-think Rob

:33:38.:33:46.

otics. He can do menial jobs and costs half the minimum human wage in

:33:47.:33:52.

Massachusetts. Anybody can put him to work. I press a button to say

:33:53.:33:58.

close your land, lift it up, drop it in the box like, that I have already

:33:59.:34:02.

shown him the position of the other widgets here. Press one button, I'm

:34:03.:34:07.

going to put that one back, it is expecting where it is. I can just

:34:08.:34:14.

pick up my coffee while gets on with his work. Jo that were considered

:34:15.:34:26.

human only are falling to the rob ots, like warehouse picking,

:34:27.:34:32.

navigating around a space with ever-changing inventory and no two

:34:33.:34:36.

asks the same, it was all thought impossible for the machines, not any

:34:37.:34:44.

more. Autonomous robots lift up the shelves and bring them to one of the

:34:45.:34:48.

central pickers. Companies need far fewer humans. With a quickening pace

:34:49.:34:54.

the jobs under threat are creeping steadily up the education scale to

:34:55.:35:00.

graduates and professionals. The scope of task that machines can do

:35:01.:35:05.

is rapidly expanding into more high-level tasks, lawyers, some

:35:06.:35:12.

types of investment banking. At the other end truck drivers and

:35:13.:35:16.

different kinds of robotic work that used to be done by people on

:35:17.:35:27.

assembly lines. The IBM computer Watson can thrash human champions in

:35:28.:35:31.

the American game show Jeopardy. Elected every five years it has 736

:35:32.:35:37.

members from every party, Watson? What is parliament. But that is just

:35:38.:35:40.

a party trick compared to what else it can do. A new generation of

:35:41.:35:45.

doctors are helping Watson learn the language of medicine. Ingesting

:35:46.:35:52.

every available scrap of digitised medical knowledge, he's on his way

:35:53.:35:57.

to being the best diagnostic doctor, and he can treat millions at the

:35:58.:36:01.

same time. This is one of the ways jobs will disappear in the second

:36:02.:36:05.

machine age. The best in any field can capture the whole market and

:36:06.:36:09.

potentially fabulous wealth. Professions like accountany and the

:36:10.:36:14.

law are already in the frame. Previously the human best tax

:36:15.:36:18.

account didn't have the capacity to serve the entire market. But with

:36:19.:36:22.

digital goods it is different. Once you have made one copy it is trivial

:36:23.:36:27.

to make additional copies. I should say that is mostly good news. It is

:36:28.:36:31.

nice we all have access to the best of many of these different

:36:32.:36:34.

categories. As consumers it is good news. But it leads to a big

:36:35.:36:41.

reallocation. In other words, even greater wealth inequalities. But at

:36:42.:36:45.

least new jobs will be created, well don't count on it! This retail

:36:46.:36:49.

development in Boston used to be a Ford factory, here new jobs come

:36:50.:36:54.

from the rubble of the old. If the machines are able to not only

:36:55.:37:00.

outmuscle but out-brain humans, which jobs will humans do? There is

:37:01.:37:06.

no automatic guarantee these jobs will appear or they will be good

:37:07.:37:09.

wages. There is no economic law that says everyone is going to benefit

:37:10.:37:14.

from technology. It is possible for some people, even potentially a

:37:15.:37:18.

majority of people to be made worse off. What sort of society and

:37:19.:37:24.

economy could this lead to? There is a story about a Ford executive and

:37:25.:37:31.

union boss touring a newly automated car plant. The Ford executive

:37:32.:37:36.

overlooking the ranks of machines building the cars jokes to the union

:37:37.:37:41.

boss "how will you get these guys to pay union subscriptions", the union

:37:42.:37:46.

boss came back with "how are you going to get them to buy Fords? ".

:37:47.:37:54.

When it vanishes from the community, you see lots of flavours of social

:37:55.:38:00.

breakdown. For most of us these days a meaningful life has work as one of

:38:01.:38:04.

its main components, a job, a career, a trajectory in your life.

:38:05.:38:08.

If and win that goes away, what replaces it. I don't have a quick

:38:09.:38:12.

answer to that question, we better start thinking long and hard about

:38:13.:38:22.

it though. The vintage robots on display seem childish and

:38:23.:38:26.

rudimentry. There is nothing exciting about this stick creature

:38:27.:38:33.

from the 1980s. You can't say the same for the latest model. According

:38:34.:38:39.

to the two men we need to prepare for a greater world of lower

:38:40.:38:44.

equality and mass unemployment. The only place you might learn about

:38:45.:38:47.

good middle-class jobs is in a museum. Edmund, hillry and Sherpa

:38:48.:39:00.

Tensing could hardly have believed hundreds would follow them up

:39:01.:39:06.

Everest. The industry helping largely wealthy westerners up

:39:07.:39:11.

Everest has boomed. There is talk of queues on the way to the summit.

:39:12.:39:16.

After 16 mountain guides were killed in an avalanche last week, it is

:39:17.:39:19.

essentially at a stand still. Some Sherpas want to boycott the climbing

:39:20.:39:24.

season completely after the terrible accident. Unless they receive a

:39:25.:39:28.

bigger share of the revenue paid by foreign mountain years. Joining us

:39:29.:39:33.

from Salford is Alan Hinkes, the first Britain to have climbed all

:39:34.:39:38.

four of the world's peaks over 8,000ms. And we have the youngest

:39:39.:39:43.

British woman to climb Everest. Thank you for being with us. First

:39:44.:39:47.

to you Alan, how have you felt that your life is at risk? Yes, a lot of

:39:48.:39:55.

times. On 8,000m peak, on Everest, the first time I went through the

:39:56.:40:00.

ice fall my heart was in my mouth. I had read all the books and knew it

:40:01.:40:04.

was dangerous. There was a little bit of apprehension. Bordering on

:40:05.:40:09.

fear, it is a dangerous place. If Sherpas face those kinds of dangers

:40:10.:40:14.

on climbers' behalf every day surely they deserve a bigger share of the

:40:15.:40:20.

rewards? They do, and these Sherpas are friends of mine, they are

:40:21.:40:24.

fantastic, sensitive, brave people, they are lovely. But they choose

:40:25.:40:28.

this career, they are not forced to go into the ice fall, just as I

:40:29.:40:32.

choose a career as a mountain guide I'm not forced to go into the ice

:40:33.:40:39.

fall. I have been to Mont Blanc and it is a choice they make and a

:40:40.:40:43.

dangerous place, more dangerous than the British hills or Mont Blanc.

:40:44.:40:49.

They should get more money, they get well paid, they average $2500 a year

:40:50.:40:59.

-- $500 a year, most will get ten or twenty-times that for a month's

:41:00.:41:05.

work. The compensation case is about ?230, that is an insult isn't it? It

:41:06.:41:10.

is an insult. The Nepalese Government took $3 million in permit

:41:11.:41:16.

fees alone. The Sherpas are asking for an insurance pay-out of $100,000

:41:17.:41:22.

pay-out to each of the dead's families. I think that is fine

:41:23.:41:26.

considering what the Government are taking. So who is taking the money?

:41:27.:41:30.

You can always guess what the Nepalese Government is doing with

:41:31.:41:34.

the money. It might be the case they are investing in the country as a

:41:35.:41:38.

whole. Because the valley where Everest is gets lots of money, and

:41:39.:41:43.

the industries around it are impoverished. There is way of

:41:44.:41:47.

spreading the word and maybe the Government is doing it. These

:41:48.:41:51.

Sherpas are the life blood of evidence, so without them there is

:41:52.:41:57.

no investment for the Government. Given the amount of money changing

:41:58.:42:00.

hand, this is a boom industry isn't it, is that appropriate? Everest is

:42:01.:42:07.

a special case. Most of the money is made from trekking, thousands of

:42:08.:42:11.

people go trekking, particularly to Everest base camp and all around.

:42:12.:42:16.

Everest is only for two months of the year it is a big windfall for

:42:17.:42:21.

April/May, then nobody there for the rest of the year. As was said, this

:42:22.:42:27.

part of Nepal is quite wealthy because of Everest. I should point

:42:28.:42:32.

out there is not that much money for a lot of the western trekking

:42:33.:42:34.

companies, a lot of the British companies don't make vast profits

:42:35.:42:41.

from Everest. Most of them are put back into Everest, you have A a lot

:42:42.:42:55.

of money being spent. Have we lost the respect of going up the mountain

:42:56.:42:59.

in the first place? Aesthetics involved in this. I could understand

:43:00.:43:03.

if the Sherpas or the Nepalese guides as they should be called, if

:43:04.:43:07.

they decide not to go on the mountain I would understand it, they

:43:08.:43:12.

have had 13-16 of them killed. It is the mother goddess of the world,

:43:13.:43:16.

they are Buddhists and it could be bad Karma to go back on to the tar

:43:17.:43:21.

mark. I would expect it if they decided not to go back this week. It

:43:22.:43:25.

is a special case and the highest mountain in the world. Do you fear

:43:26.:43:29.

the industry, that is what it is, is now out of control? It is a very

:43:30.:43:32.

difficult question. You have got a really unique situation on Everest,

:43:33.:43:35.

you have some of the richest people in the world, meeting some of the

:43:36.:43:38.

poorest. And you have also got mother nature mixed in there. It is

:43:39.:43:45.

an explosive mix. The Nepalese Sherpas want western climbers there,

:43:46.:43:49.

they want as many as they can. Maybe there is a limit, but the more

:43:50.:43:53.

people who come to their mountain the richer they get. And they can

:43:54.:43:57.

support their children. It is not so much about it being horrible

:43:58.:44:03.

industry, as you put it, it is a mountain, like others, where

:44:04.:44:07.

hundreds of people go up every year and it doesn't get the same bad

:44:08.:44:12.

press. Is it possible to go up Everest without a mountain guide,

:44:13.:44:17.

could it be attempted without Sherpas if they go back to the

:44:18.:44:21.

mountain? I don't think it would be, the ice the Sherpas are going

:44:22.:44:26.

through was maintained by the Sherpas, they fix ladders and ropes,

:44:27.:44:30.

the mountain changes constantly without their knowledge, skills and

:44:31.:44:34.

expertise, I think it would be very difficult to fix a safe route for

:44:35.:44:38.

the most part of the climbers there. There are people who go to Everest

:44:39.:44:45.

without wanting to shout for help, but they are few and far between.

:44:46.:44:51.

Before we go. Get your stopwatches ready, Ben Lee is the Guinness

:44:52.:45:00.

record world holder for the fastest violinist. We give him the

:45:01.:45:03.

opportunity for a dry run tonight. The piece is Flight of the

:45:04.:45:08.

Bumblebee, the choice is four. 4.55. More showers around in the rest of

:45:09.:46:23.

the week, the heavy showers will die away as we go through the

:46:24.:46:24.

The clash between money and football following the sacking of David Moyes. Is the National Union of Teachers about to turn left? Robots and the future of work. Mount Everest is closed due to industrial action.


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