29/07/2014 Newsnight


29/07/2014

Analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Robert Peston. NHS privatisation, Israel's opposition leader, OK Cupid, WW1, and will sanctions hurt Russia?


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Will President Putin feel any real pain from western sanctions? The

:00:00.:00:12.

United States sim posing new sanctions in key sectors of the

:00:13.:00:16.

Russian economy. Energy, arms, and finance. But if we really wanted to

:00:17.:00:23.

hurt him, wouldn't we be targeting Russia's vast reserves of natural

:00:24.:00:28.

gas? The only problem is that Europe needs all that lovely gas. Instead

:00:29.:00:35.

it is the banking sector that will feel the burden, this could be

:00:36.:00:41.

enough to tip Russia into recession. Another 100 Gazans are reported to

:00:42.:00:45.

have been killed since last night by the Israeli Defence Force.

:00:46.:00:47.

Why does the leader of the opposition in the Israeli parliament

:00:48.:00:54.

support the onslaught. And the great First World War poet,

:00:55.:01:03.

significant Fridayed Sassoon. Dark Claude are smalledering into -- dark

:01:04.:01:08.

clouds are smoldering into red. Who and what determines how we see the

:01:09.:01:20.

Great War. Do we see it clearly. Learly.

:01:21.:01:21.

So after much huffing and puffing the European Union has finally

:01:22.:01:28.

responded to the shooting down of the Malaysian airliner MH17, by

:01:29.:01:32.

moving to so called stage III sanctions against Russia. There will

:01:33.:01:36.

be ban on sales of equipment to Russia that would help it modernise

:01:37.:01:41.

its huge oil industry. A prohibition has been put in place on exports of

:01:42.:01:47.

technology that has actual or possible military use. Leading

:01:48.:01:50.

Russian banks will no longer be able to raise money from European

:01:51.:01:55.

investors. Is this the EU showing its teeth or just some flaccid gums?

:01:56.:02:02.

And will these measures genuinely hurt President Putin so he thinks

:02:03.:02:05.

again about his backing for pro-Russian rebels in eastern

:02:06.:02:10.

Ukraine. Or, will the pain, if any, actually be felt by us?

:02:11.:02:15.

We will hear in a moment from our economics correspondent, but here

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first is a report from Moscow. Moscow's Gorky Park this evening had

:02:25.:02:30.

a happy air about it. Life has rarely been so good in Russia,

:02:31.:02:37.

soaring gas and oil prices have filled the coffers, and the

:02:38.:02:43.

middle-classes are enjoying it. The fighting in Ukraine and the downed

:02:44.:02:48.

flight seem far from here, it is hard to believe that sanctions would

:02:49.:02:51.

sweep all of this away. But analysts of the Russian economy were already

:02:52.:02:55.

detecting signs of trouble before today's news. Only in the last

:02:56.:03:01.

several weeks have we started to see the strains emerging, so higher

:03:02.:03:05.

interest rates, stubbornly high inflation, in June for example the

:03:06.:03:11.

car sales were down 17% year on year. So you are starting to see the

:03:12.:03:15.

cracks now appearing. Interestingly an opinion poll out today suggests

:03:16.:03:18.

the number of people who are worried about sanctions in Russia has

:03:19.:03:23.

actually dropped from over 50% back in March to around 35% today. The

:03:24.:03:28.

number of people who are not too concerned or not bothered at all is

:03:29.:03:35.

now over 60%. That poll was reflected this evening by Moscow's

:03:36.:03:39.

young and carefree in Gorky Park. It all seemed a world away from

:03:40.:03:43.

Washington, where President Obama was announcing more sanctions.

:03:44.:03:47.

Russia is once again isolating itself from the international

:03:48.:03:53.

community, setting back decades of genuine progress. And it doesn't

:03:54.:03:56.

have to come to this. It didn't have to come to this. The sanctions did

:03:57.:04:01.

make the Russian news today, but it wasn't the main story. And the

:04:02.:04:05.

presenter said that Ukraine should be being isolated, not Russia,

:04:06.:04:11.

because it had used what he called "weapons of mass destruction"

:04:12.:04:15.

against its own people. The official reaction to the sanctions has been

:04:16.:04:21.

one of stoicim. This was the Foreign Minister yesterday. TRANSLATION:

:04:22.:04:25.

This gives us no pleasure, just as we know it gives European countries

:04:26.:04:29.

no pleasure to impose the sanctions. But, I assure you, we can overcome

:04:30.:04:34.

the difficulties that will arise in some parts of our economy. Possibly

:04:35.:04:40.

we will also become more self-sufficient and more confident

:04:41.:04:43.

of our own strength, this is also useful. While this evening Sergei

:04:44.:04:52.

Markov, a political scientist with close links to the Kremlin, made it

:04:53.:04:55.

clear that the new sanctions could have consequences. And now it is in

:04:56.:05:07.

history that in the on the anniversary, 100 years since the

:05:08.:05:17.

Great War, we are very close to world war three. The Kremlin appears

:05:18.:05:21.

to have made a decision, it knows as the sanctions pile up, there will be

:05:22.:05:24.

economic and then political consequences. But it seems to have

:05:25.:05:28.

calculated that the political consequences will be much worse if

:05:29.:05:33.

it is seen to give in to America and its allies in western Europe. So

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joining me now is our economics correspondent. Do you think these

:05:41.:05:43.

sanctions are remotely significant? I think they are very significant,

:05:44.:05:47.

they have already been described as the toughest sanctions on Russia

:05:48.:05:50.

since the end of the Cold War, I think that is true. If we go back

:05:51.:05:54.

two weeks since before the Malaysian airlines was downed. The US brought

:05:55.:05:58.

in tough sanctions, Europe brought in much weaker sanctions. Today

:05:59.:06:02.

Europe has gone a lot further than the US did two weeks ago, much more

:06:03.:06:06.

than anyone else was expecting, even this time last week. This is going

:06:07.:06:11.

to in particular hit Russian banks who are already been locked out in

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borrowing in dollars, and now locked out in euros as well, I think they

:06:16.:06:19.

are significant. Do they have any kind of implications for us, I mean

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it is quite interesting that we have danced around the whole energy

:06:24.:06:28.

sector. Very little in the way that will damage Russia's huge oil and

:06:29.:06:33.

gas industry. What are the implications for the UK and the

:06:34.:06:38.

European Union? There is damage to the Russian oil industry, we have

:06:39.:06:41.

deliberately not targeted the gas industry. The effect will vary

:06:42.:06:48.

across the European Union. France is more exposed to arms sales and

:06:49.:06:52.

Germany some of the high-tech energy equipment. In the UK there are two

:06:53.:06:55.

things to bear in mind, firstly when the Russian banks come to raise

:06:56.:06:58.

money they do it in London, we are talking hundreds of millions in lost

:06:59.:07:05.

fees in the City. Secondly BP, it owns 20% of Rossneft, a big direct

:07:06.:07:08.

investment, there is worries about that, their shares are down two. 5%

:07:09.:07:13.

today. If you look however at sanctions that have had an impact in

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the past, say on Iran, they tend to be actually rather more significant,

:07:21.:07:26.

draconian, Iranian companies broadly banned from raising finance across

:07:27.:07:30.

the world. Almost impossible for Iran to sell anything anywhere. That

:07:31.:07:35.

had a major impact on that economy. Do we really think that these much

:07:36.:07:42.

more limited punitive actions will make Putin feel any pain at all of

:07:43.:07:46.

any serious sort? No, I think they will. I think you are right. These

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are nowhere near as strong as the sanctions on Iran or Sudan

:07:51.:07:53.

previously. There are two things to bear in mind. Firstly we have to

:07:54.:07:57.

look at the underlying health of the Russian economy. If we look at

:07:58.:07:59.

Russian economic growth over the last decade the first thing we can

:08:00.:08:03.

see is that the Russian economy was growing at 6-8% a year, it slowed

:08:04.:08:07.

after the recession, but last year the Russian economy only grew by

:08:08.:08:11.

just over 1%, before anything happened in Crimea or Ukraine. This

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wasn't economy that was slowing down. Secondly, now I agree with

:08:15.:08:17.

you, the formal sanctions will cause some pain, they are not massive.

:08:18.:08:21.

What matters more is the indirect effect. So three times this year the

:08:22.:08:25.

Russian Central Bank has been forced to raise interest rates. Most

:08:26.:08:29.

recently on Friday, to try to defend their currency. As well you know

:08:30.:08:32.

Robert, the last thing you want to be doing when your economy is

:08:33.:08:34.

slowing is raising interest rates. So I think the actual sanctions

:08:35.:08:37.

themselves are not what's doing the damage. What is doing the damage is

:08:38.:08:41.

the action they are forcing the Russians to take, raising interest

:08:42.:08:44.

rates and a slowing economy, it never ends particularly well. Thank

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you. Now joining me is a former British ambassador to Russia, and

:08:51.:09:01.

the director of p the Russia Studies Centre of the Henry Jackson Society.

:09:02.:09:05.

We are trying to see if this is largely cosmetic and the Europeans

:09:06.:09:10.

saving facial in a difficult situation or it will have an impact

:09:11.:09:14.

on the way Russia behaves in the Ukraine? I think the current round

:09:15.:09:20.

of sanctions announced by the US and the EU today are deeply significant.

:09:21.:09:24.

I would argue that the earlier sanctions were in a sense symbolic

:09:25.:09:29.

and it is Duncan said the greater impact they had was indirect in the

:09:30.:09:35.

sense of the message they sent to international investors, and markets

:09:36.:09:40.

and confidence and so forth. I would agree with you that this is just to

:09:41.:09:46.

an extent a face-saving exercise. The EU needed to retain a degree of

:09:47.:09:53.

credibility in the way it acts towards Russia, I do think the

:09:54.:09:56.

sanctions will impact Russia and may bring about change in President

:09:57.:10:00.

Putin's behaviour. If we look for example at the sanctions imposed on

:10:01.:10:04.

the energy sector, we are already talking about equipment that may

:10:05.:10:08.

have an impact on the efficiency of Russian oil companies in a few

:10:09.:10:12.

years' time, but not damaging them in a major way now. If you look at

:10:13.:10:15.

the restriction on Russian banks raising capital, well, they will

:10:16.:10:19.

simply go to China, won't they, for that money. They have also a Central

:10:20.:10:24.

Bank that can print money. Do we really think that in terms of what

:10:25.:10:30.

the impact will be on ordinary people's lives in Russia that they

:10:31.:10:34.

will see any difference? If we look at the past experience of sanctions

:10:35.:10:37.

and the Russian regime, President Putin. If one considers for example

:10:38.:10:42.

Russia's reaction to the United States adoption of the the act in

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2010, sorry 2012, Russia's response was assertive, it was in a sense

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defensive, and in one or two respects quite aggressive and gave

:10:53.:10:56.

the impression indeed that America did take seriously, sorry that

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Russia took seriously the sanctions and the impact that had it and its

:11:00.:11:05.

behaviour. As somebody who knows Russia very well, how does President

:11:06.:11:10.

Putin typically pond to these sports -- respond to these sorts of

:11:11.:11:16.

threats? He's counter suggestible on things like this from the west and

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he will be to this, and not respond in the way we want him to. He has

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90% popular support in Russia, and the reason is because he's seen as a

:11:26.:11:29.

great hero of the Russians against the intruding, humiliating and

:11:30.:11:33.

encirleling west. Therefore he has little political choice, apart from

:11:34.:11:35.

anything else, but to stand firmly against these sanctions. The

:11:36.:11:39.

sanctions are, in my view, very unlikely to have their affect, and

:11:40.:11:45.

unlikely to prove counter-productive in finding any solution to the

:11:46.:11:49.

Ukraine problem. What in your view should the west be doing? This is

:11:50.:11:55.

not a popular line of course, but the west needs to talk seriously to

:11:56.:11:59.

the Russian, bringing the Ukrainians into the conversation about a

:12:00.:12:03.

solution which protects what the Russians see as their assets in

:12:04.:12:06.

Ukraine, which is to keep Ukraine out of NATO and protect the

:12:07.:12:10.

Russian-speaking population there. If we could do a deal which

:12:11.:12:13.

incorporates that, Putin can go back to his people and claim victory and

:12:14.:12:16.

we can come down from what is actually at the moment a very

:12:17.:12:22.

dangerous escaltory spiral. The west introduces sanctions, whatever

:12:23.:12:25.

economic effect, they will not have a political effect. Russia maintains

:12:26.:12:29.

its support for the separatist, and maybe steps it up a bit. The west

:12:30.:12:34.

introduces more sanctions and more support for the separatist, and

:12:35.:12:38.

sliding dangerously down hill. Do you see any way out of escalating

:12:39.:12:46.

conflict? I would agree with Sir Tony that these are a gamble. Gamble

:12:47.:12:51.

in a sense they bring about economic hardship, potentially economic

:12:52.:12:54.

hardship against Europe and America, but they are also a gamble because

:12:55.:12:57.

we don't know how President Putin will react to this. Sir Tony is

:12:58.:13:01.

correct, what President Putin will need to get out of this is something

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that he can present to the Russian people as a victory. I would, I

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suppose, depart from Sir Tony in the sense that I think alongside

:13:11.:13:15.

sanctions there absolutely should be diplomatic engagment behind the

:13:16.:13:18.

scenes, and that may well be a way of bringing about a compromise which

:13:19.:13:22.

will be difficult for the west to swallow, but it is better than the

:13:23.:13:30.

alternative. Thank you very much. Is the great thing about the National

:13:31.:13:34.

Health Service that no British person has to pay to use it, or is

:13:35.:13:39.

it that most of it is provided by the public sector, by the state?

:13:40.:13:44.

Labour's health spokesman, Andy Burnham said the role of the private

:13:45.:13:50.

sector in the health sector has been growing too fast, he called on the

:13:51.:13:52.

Government to halt privatisation until after the general election.

:13:53.:14:00.

But is this the same Andy burn biamond Burnham who was Health

:14:01.:14:05.

Secretary and saw a huge increase in private association with health

:14:06.:14:08.

care. Does it map if a private company fixes your hip or screens

:14:09.:14:13.

you for cancer so long as they do it cheaply and properly. I will speak

:14:14.:14:16.

to him in a minute. First we have this.

:14:17.:14:21.

When you hear about health privatisation, maybe it evokes

:14:22.:14:25.

America and its health care system, a system built on private insurers.

:14:26.:14:31.

Or, perhaps you think of privatising in the 1980s or 1990s, when publicly

:14:32.:14:36.

owned companies got sold off, neither is quite right. I don't

:14:37.:14:39.

think privatisation is the right word. We haven't seen large

:14:40.:14:44.

transfers of ownership from being a public NHS hospital into the private

:14:45.:14:47.

sector. What we have seen is more contracts going to private sector

:14:48.:14:51.

operator, it is more like outsourcing than privatisation. This

:14:52.:14:55.

has been driven by something called the new public management school of

:14:56.:14:59.

thought. The big idea is that decisions are passed to local

:15:00.:15:03.

managers who are then held to account by targets and market

:15:04.:15:07.

forces. But to make all of that work you need alternatives to replace

:15:08.:15:11.

weak services and create competition. And that's where the

:15:12.:15:17.

private providers come in. This idea isn't new, Alan Milburn a Labour

:15:18.:15:23.

Health Secretary said the hard thing about health politics is by and

:15:24.:15:26.

large the thrust of policy over the 30, 40 years, with ups and downs all

:15:27.:15:30.

the way, has broadly within in one direction, more diversity, were

:15:31.:15:34.

youity and autonomy and better data. An increasing share of NHS spending

:15:35.:15:40.

has gone to private providers under the coalition, whose reforms tilted

:15:41.:15:47.

the health service that way. But outsourcing also rose under the

:15:48.:15:54.

Labour administration, including Andy Burn ham's ten euro as

:15:55.:16:01.

secretaries for health. What direction has it gone. Outsourcing

:16:02.:16:03.

got better during the reforms So many difficult things were

:16:04.:16:17.

happening at the same time, there was a lot of emphasis on targets,

:16:18.:16:20.

there were new payment systems for hospitals and a lot more money until

:16:21.:16:24.

recently some that have generated a big improvements in performance that

:16:25.:16:28.

we have seen. One of the questions going forward when there isn't much

:16:29.:16:32.

money in the systems and problems appear, is quite how the private

:16:33.:16:35.

sector helps in that kind of environment. If Mr Burnham plans to

:16:36.:16:42.

crunch down on outsourcing on the NHS, it is hard to say what effect

:16:43.:16:46.

it would have, but it would affect services from cancer care to

:16:47.:16:50.

cataracts. Joining me from Salford is Labour's

:16:51.:16:55.

spokesman Andy Burnham. What exactly are you proposing? The first thing

:16:56.:16:59.

is can I correct something in your piece there, to say that I did

:17:00.:17:04.

something in Government and saying something different in opposition.

:17:05.:17:08.

In Government I changed policy towards the NHS preferred provider

:17:09.:17:11.

principle, because I was saying that the public NHS is important. A

:17:12.:17:13.

service that puts people before profits. And my views haven't

:17:14.:17:17.

changed. What we have seen under this Government... Is a very big

:17:18.:17:23.

hang. Hang on a second. Towards forced send tendering of services.

:17:24.:17:27.

It is taking the NHS into new territory, large contracts being

:17:28.:17:30.

offered for sensitive services such as older people's care and cancer

:17:31.:17:34.

care. Suggesting this Government sees no limits on the use of the

:17:35.:17:37.

private sector. My big point is who gave this Prime Minister permission

:17:38.:17:41.

to put the NHS up for sale in this way. Because if you remember Robert,

:17:42.:17:44.

before the last election he said there would be no reorganisation of

:17:45.:17:49.

the NHS, then he brought forward the biggest-ever. It is really not what

:17:50.:17:53.

I think, the British public have never given their consent for their

:17:54.:17:57.

most valued institution to be broken up and sold off in this way. Hang on

:17:58.:18:02.

a second, who gave Labour permission before the election in which you

:18:03.:18:05.

were Health Secretary, because in that period actually privatisation

:18:06.:18:09.

on your definition went up by 60% and it has gone up only 20% under

:18:10.:18:12.

this Government. Where was the permission that you had? I'm not

:18:13.:18:16.

sure you have your figures right. These are official statistics? Let's

:18:17.:18:20.

explain the different role, Labour used the private sector in a

:18:21.:18:23.

supporting capacity, to provided a decisional capacity to bring down

:18:24.:18:27.

NHS waiting lists. Our mandate was to bring down NHS waiting lists and

:18:28.:18:31.

we did, to the lowest ever level. I'm saying that this Government has

:18:32.:18:36.

changed that. It has forced tendering on the NHS and we are now

:18:37.:18:40.

seeing huge contracts being put out. The FT will report tomorrow that

:18:41.:18:45.

there is currently ?6 billion worth of the NHS out to open tender to be

:18:46.:18:50.

signed before the next election. I don't think that is acceptable when

:18:51.:18:54.

the public have never given their express consent for the NHS to be

:18:55.:18:58.

broken up and sold off in this way. But you explicitly said in 20009

:18:59.:19:06.

nine and I will quote you that we can move beyond polarising debates

:19:07.:19:09.

of public and private sector provision, were you wrong that

:19:10.:19:14.

distinction is an artificial one? I said at the beginning I introduced

:19:15.:19:18.

the NHS preferred provider, I saw a role for the other providers the

:19:19.:19:23.

voluntary or private providers supporting the public NHS. So you

:19:24.:19:26.

were wrong, if you let me make the point, you changed your mind? No

:19:27.:19:29.

because I explained to you what I said. This Government sees a

:19:30.:19:33.

replacement role, so it sees the core public NHS being replaced by

:19:34.:19:38.

private providers. That is to take the NHS into new territory. And I

:19:39.:19:45.

put it to you again, that the British public have never given

:19:46.:19:49.

their consent for that policy. That is the crucial issue here, if David

:19:50.:19:53.

Cameron wants to pursue that policy he must explicitly go to the next

:19:54.:19:57.

election and say this is the kind of health service we want. I have put

:19:58.:20:01.

out the vision for a different health service under Britain, a

:20:02.:20:06.

public integrated service based on the principle of the NHS preferred

:20:07.:20:09.

provider. At the end of the day that matters. I'm passionate about the

:20:10.:20:13.

public NHS and what it represents, it is a service based on people not

:20:14.:20:17.

profits. I'm not clear why you think it matters, actually when people are

:20:18.:20:23.

polled, what they say the NHS is about is free at the point of use.

:20:24.:20:29.

People frankly seem to be very neutral about who provides that

:20:30.:20:33.

service. So long as the quality is there. You have for example, hang

:20:34.:20:37.

on, we have, as you know, some of the worst, the worse worst mortality

:20:38.:20:45.

rates for cancer of any rich country. Why not try the private

:20:46.:20:49.

sector to see if we can improve the mortality rates? Let me answer the

:20:50.:20:52.

main point there. This is the crux of it, isn't it. I think people

:20:53.:20:56.

value the service that we have, that as I say is based on people not

:20:57.:21:01.

profit, that means when people walk through the door of the NHS it is

:21:02.:21:04.

you that matters, it is not your bank balance or the views of

:21:05.:21:07.

shareholders that are the important thing. That is the essence of the

:21:08.:21:11.

service we have, and I think that is what Danny Boyle was celebrating at

:21:12.:21:14.

the Opening Ceremony of the Olympic Games. Now you mentioned cancer

:21:15.:21:18.

care, I have shown today how cancer care has gone backwards under this

:21:19.:21:22.

Government, we're seeing the national cancer target missed for

:21:23.:21:27.

the first time. So you know the Government's reforms aren't making

:21:28.:21:29.

things better, they are making things worse. The NHS has gone

:21:30.:21:34.

downhill under David Cameron. So I think this is the crux of the debate

:21:35.:21:38.

we have to have at the election. This is the choice we have to have.

:21:39.:21:44.

Do we want an NHS that continues on people not profits basis, or do we

:21:45.:21:48.

want a very different service. I'm very clear that I think the public

:21:49.:21:53.

want to see the NHS continue, if we carry on allowing the inexable

:21:54.:21:58.

advance of the market into the NHS, in the end it will devour everything

:21:59.:22:01.

that is precious about it. Just so that I can grasp what it is you are

:22:02.:22:06.

saying here, I just want to return to your period as Health Secretary,

:22:07.:22:11.

there was a hospital that failed under Labour, in Cambridgeshire, it

:22:12.:22:16.

was moved down the runway to privatisation when you were Health

:22:17.:22:20.

Secretary, it is now perceived as a private low-run hospital for the --

:22:21.:22:27.

private low-run hospital for the NHS to provide private treatment, would

:22:28.:22:32.

you reverse that private sector management? I don't think you can

:22:33.:22:36.

just reverse contracts that have been signed. Let's be clear on that

:22:37.:22:42.

example. I was seeking an NHS provider for that hospital under my

:22:43.:22:47.

provider principl it was this Government that signed the contract.

:22:48.:22:53.

The NHS was unable to bid? Let me make the broader point, in the end

:22:54.:22:56.

you have to decide what kind of health service you want, if you look

:22:57.:23:01.

around the world, market-based systems cost more not less than

:23:02.:23:05.

systems like the NHS. They also do something different to the quality

:23:06.:23:09.

of care what they lead to is greater fragmentation of the care, when the

:23:10.:23:13.

future demands integration of care. I'm quite clear that the market is

:23:14.:23:21.

not the answer to 21st century care. I'm setting out my stall, you may

:23:22.:23:25.

disagree with it but I'm pretty clear that is the principle which we

:23:26.:23:29.

should build our health service going forward and those are the

:23:30.:23:32.

foundations on which I'm developing Labour's vision for the NHS in the

:23:33.:23:38.

21st century. Many thanks. Now Israel intensified its remorseless

:23:39.:23:42.

bombardment of Gaza today. There were more than 60 air strikes and an

:23:43.:23:47.

estimated 100 Palestinians killed, including seven families, according

:23:48.:23:50.

to the Palestinian health authority. That would bring the total to well

:23:51.:23:56.

over 1100 Palestinian deaths since hostilities began on July eighth,

:23:57.:24:00.

compared to something over 50 killings of the Israelis. Gaza's

:24:01.:24:04.

only power plant was hit today, making living conditions even more

:24:05.:24:08.

miserable for the territory's one. Eight million people. What are

:24:09.:24:13.

Israel's real aims and what are the prospects for peace.

:24:14.:24:18.

We're joined from Tel Aviv now. What has been happening today? Well, as

:24:19.:24:23.

you just said today was one of the bloodiest days in Gaza, according to

:24:24.:24:26.

Palestinian officials, as you say, more than 100 killed, Israel says it

:24:27.:24:33.

was Hamas-related targets that it was attacking. But local people

:24:34.:24:37.

there say a school was attacked and as you say a tank shell from an

:24:38.:24:42.

Israeli tank hit the only power station, taking out supplies there.

:24:43.:24:48.

On this side of the border missiles from Gaza continuing to rain down on

:24:49.:24:55.

Israel, one for example intercepted this evening over Jerusalem by the

:24:56.:24:59.

Iron Dome system. And on the political front the security cabinet

:25:00.:25:04.

delayed or postponed its meeting from today until tomorrow amid

:25:05.:25:07.

continuing deep divisions in the cabinet about how exactly to pursue

:25:08.:25:12.

the war. I think increasingly the Prime Minister Mr Netenyahu squeezed

:25:13.:25:15.

very much between hawks and between public opinion, which is very much

:25:16.:25:20.

in favour of prolonging the war, on the one hand and America, the UN and

:25:21.:25:23.

other powers on the other hand pressing very strongly for a

:25:24.:25:28.

cease-fire. What is the point of the bombardment, the military action,

:25:29.:25:35.

where does it all end? Well it is hard to say, certainly Israelis are

:25:36.:25:40.

very shocked by the number of soldiers now 53 that they have lost

:25:41.:25:45.

in the last two weeks. And they are also very shocked by the discovery

:25:46.:25:50.

of more and more tunnels leading under the border into Israel. Now

:25:51.:25:55.

Hamas today put out a video which it says shows some of its militants

:25:56.:25:58.

Protestantsing into Israel, we cannot verify this, but certainly

:25:59.:26:02.

the idea for the Israeli army they confirmed there was an incident of

:26:03.:26:07.

this sort, and yesterday five Israeli soldiers were killed when

:26:08.:26:11.

Hamas militants came out of that kind of tunnel. So far these losses

:26:12.:26:16.

only seem to have stiffened the Israeli public's demand for a

:26:17.:26:21.

continuation of the war. But what is interesting is increasingly now

:26:22.:26:24.

there is a debate here about whether the demilitarisation of Gaza, as Mr

:26:25.:26:28.

Netenyahu puts it, can really be carried out in the context of a war

:26:29.:26:33.

by the Israeli army or whether there will have to be some kind of

:26:34.:26:40.

internationally sup advised de-- supervised demilitarisation.

:26:41.:26:44.

Involving some kind of carrot or big, big investment of funds into

:26:45.:26:48.

Gaza, how that mechanism could work, it is a long way off. It is proposed

:26:49.:26:52.

by a former Defence Minister. Mr Netenyahu has certainly shown

:26:53.:26:55.

interest in it, it is an idea gaining more and more traction here

:26:56.:27:00.

now. Many thanks. Earlier I spoke to the leader of the Israeli opposition

:27:01.:27:06.

Labour Party, I asked him how with the Israeli left's tradition of

:27:07.:27:10.

trying to reach a peaceful solution with the Palestinians he could

:27:11.:27:15.

support Israel's onslaught on Gaza? These are tragic events, and believe

:27:16.:27:20.

me most Israelis feel extremely sorry for these tragic events, but

:27:21.:27:24.

we are simply defending our people. I'm going to the same shelter that I

:27:25.:27:28.

have been at as a child. I have been shot at every evening and every

:27:29.:27:31.

morning by missiles, like most of the citizens of Israel. Simply put,

:27:32.:27:36.

so when you are trying to uproot the missiles, after absorbing and

:27:37.:27:41.

absorbing and absorbing and you warn the citizens and you alert the

:27:42.:27:46.

civilians and you send leaflets and SMSs, in the end you fight, you

:27:47.:27:49.

fight to save your own people and you want to know something, I lead

:27:50.:27:53.

the Israeli opposition, I lead the peace camp in Israel, if you want to

:27:54.:27:56.

make peace you have to be ready for war. We are yearning for peace, but

:27:57.:28:02.

we have to make peace with those who are unwilling to sit down -- we have

:28:03.:28:07.

to make peace with those willing to talk to us, not those calling for

:28:08.:28:11.

our destruction and killing our citizens every day. They may be

:28:12.:28:15.

calling for your destruction but Hamas does look extraordinarily

:28:16.:28:18.

weak, no longer getting the support of Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood,

:28:19.:28:25.

the Iron Dome, a tremendous protective cover for Israelis. On

:28:26.:28:30.

that basis isn't the Israeli army going massively over the top in

:28:31.:28:35.

Gaza? But that's not the full picture, with all due respect. It is

:28:36.:28:40.

a very distorted picture. First of all they have been sending thousands

:28:41.:28:45.

of missiles on Israel. I urge you to be here one day or be anywhere and

:28:46.:28:49.

live under missile attack. I mean any normal human being wouldn't

:28:50.:28:53.

accept it. But secondly, most importantly of all, they have dug

:28:54.:28:57.

tunnel, they have taken money from European tax-payers, and they have

:28:58.:29:03.

spent it instead of on relief and helping their citizens in Gaza, on

:29:04.:29:07.

tunnels which have been dug under our homes in southern Israel in

:29:08.:29:12.

order to breakthrough one night, kidnap thousands of Israelis and

:29:13.:29:19.

drug them, torture them, kill them or abduct them to Gaza, and in the

:29:20.:29:25.

most incredible thing that paradoxically all of these kibbutz

:29:26.:29:30.

and villages on the border are part of the peace camp in Israel. This is

:29:31.:29:34.

the absurdity of it all. We have spoken to a former soldier today who

:29:35.:29:39.

nonetheless says that the Israeli army has become more hardened and is

:29:40.:29:42.

acting in a more aggressive way than it would have done in the past. And

:29:43.:29:47.

you will have read similar testimony from former soldiers on the

:29:48.:29:52.

Internet. This is a widespread complaint and concern of former

:29:53.:29:56.

members of the military. Do you believe that the Israeli army is

:29:57.:30:00.

behaving in a more aggressive way? No, not at all. I think it is

:30:01.:30:04.

behaving actually in quite a cautious way. There could be errors

:30:05.:30:09.

and mistakes, but I can describe to you dozens of events constantly that

:30:10.:30:17.

depict what I'm talking about. Every unit has indepth legal council, we

:30:18.:30:24.

are one of the only armies in the world that is clearly having legal

:30:25.:30:29.

counselling involved in every part of the operation. A few days ago in

:30:30.:30:41.

a school in BethHanun, the army uncovered a launching pad of 24

:30:42.:30:45.

missiles, what are we supposed to do when somebody fires from his home,

:30:46.:30:49.

from his shelter, from his school, from his mosque, at the end what do

:30:50.:30:53.

you do, and you want to know something, in most cases, even major

:30:54.:31:00.

European powers, even major international powers acted in fact

:31:01.:31:05.

in a much more brutal way than the Israelis. But with more than 200

:31:06.:31:12.

children already killed, what is the solution, what is the end, at what

:31:13.:31:17.

point does the Government say we have achieved what we want to

:31:18.:31:22.

achieve? OK, so first of all I'm the leader of the opposition, and my

:31:23.:31:26.

line is that whilst we protect our citizens, and we wanted not to go

:31:27.:31:33.

into this operation at all, nobody. We believe, we, Labour and the peace

:31:34.:31:38.

camp believe that we should be very much proactive on moving on peace

:31:39.:31:43.

with Mahmoud Abbas, with the Palestinian Authority, and weaken

:31:44.:31:48.

Hamas. We are in the midst of a clash of extreme Islam versus

:31:49.:31:53.

moderate nations and a coalition of moderate states that sees Szczesny

:31:54.:32:01.

ISIS on the east, and Hamas on the south, and Hezbollah in the north,

:32:02.:32:04.

that is the real battle in the region. And the battle in the region

:32:05.:32:07.

is a confrontation of a coalition of nations that believes in being in

:32:08.:32:12.

fighting terror and moving towards peace and combatting extreme terror

:32:13.:32:17.

organisations that do not see Israel as the only stop on the way to

:32:18.:32:21.

Europe, and other elements in the free world. Is there really hope of

:32:22.:32:26.

peace if you, as the opposition, think there is no possibility of

:32:27.:32:32.

negotiating with Hamas, which plainly has significant popular

:32:33.:32:35.

support among the 1. 8 million people who live in Gaza? So that's

:32:36.:32:41.

again to be questioned. I mean the people of Gaza are under gun

:32:42.:32:45.

threats. They are not really free to express their opinion. Gaza has been

:32:46.:32:51.

abducted by Hamas in 2005 and they have killed and tortured their

:32:52.:32:55.

colleagues from Fatah and kicked them out and took it over. And they

:32:56.:33:00.

are operating like a base of terror. I do not rule out the possibility

:33:01.:33:06.

that Hamas will kind of revert into becoming a political party within

:33:07.:33:11.

Palestinian politics, but they can't have both. You cannot be a political

:33:12.:33:15.

party on the one hand, and on the other hand having an army of your

:33:16.:33:23.

own do whatever the heck you want, terrorise people all over the region

:33:24.:33:26.

and undermine the whole notion of peace. Hamas refuses to agree or

:33:27.:33:29.

accept a peace agreement with Israel. Thank you very much. Thank

:33:30.:33:36.

you very much. If you use the Internet you are the subject of

:33:37.:33:40.

hundreds of experiments at any given time on every site. That's how

:33:41.:33:50.

websites work. So said the dating site Okcupid today in response to

:33:51.:33:56.

the allegation it has been manipulating their use ires by

:33:57.:34:00.

setting up unsuitable people on dates. It comes after the news that

:34:01.:34:05.

Facebook had conducted a secret psychology experiment on 700,000 of

:34:06.:34:09.

its users. Although some of us might think the best marriages are perhaps

:34:10.:34:15.

always those between people who seem whole low incompatible. This

:34:16.:34:20.

question arises, are they messing with our emotion, when is.

:34:21.:34:31.

I'm not looking for stardom, but really, thank you. She's a hot

:34:32.:34:39.

singer-songwriter, he's a charmingly dis-he willed record executive. Of

:34:40.:34:45.

course Keira Knightly and Mark Ruffelo get it together in this

:34:46.:34:49.

summer's romcom Begin Again. You have my number, right. What about

:34:50.:35:05.

the rest of us, some put their details on dating sites like

:35:06.:35:14.

Okcupid. Hi there, these old threads, just a little bit of sports

:35:15.:35:19.

casual. So subscribers signed up in good faith, you know the kind of

:35:20.:35:25.

thing, GSOH, all my own teeth! Except Okcupid were deliberately

:35:26.:35:30.

setting some of them up on bad matches, where on paper at least

:35:31.:35:36.

they only had 30% compatability. Although they were told by the site

:35:37.:35:41.

it was more like 90% compatability. Parental advisory, a match with Niki

:35:42.:35:55.

Inaj -- Minag, I didn't see that. I'm concerned about the way these

:35:56.:35:59.

sites are manipulating people's mind and emotion, how far are they going

:36:00.:36:03.

with the experiment, the only thing missing it seems to me is a cage. In

:36:04.:36:09.

another one of its called experiments, Okcupid ran profiles

:36:10.:36:13.

with photos but no text and visa versa, and guess what, people went

:36:14.:36:20.

on looks alone. So shallow. Okcupid said: Most ideas are bad, even good

:36:21.:36:24.

ideas could be better. Experiments are how you sort all this out. If

:36:25.:36:29.

you use the Internet you are the subject of hundreds of experiments

:36:30.:36:33.

at any given time on every site. That's how websites work. This comes

:36:34.:36:38.

after Facebook was accused of being unethical for trying to influence

:36:39.:36:43.

the emotions of almost 700,000 users through the news feeds they were

:36:44.:36:47.

exposed to. I think we are just touching the tip of an iceberg here,

:36:48.:36:52.

what went on with phase book again was incredible, dealing with

:36:53.:36:55.

people's psychological problems and here we are people with dating

:36:56.:37:02.

problems. People go on these dating programmes and dating sites and they

:37:03.:37:05.

are already suffering emotional situations and to put them through

:37:06.:37:07.

it again is cruel and unkind. I used to describe some of the sites

:37:08.:37:28.

as a human petri dish in an environment where they didn't feel

:37:29.:37:32.

they were being observed. There are regulations and guidelines in place

:37:33.:37:34.

within an academic environment to deal with that. What we are dealing

:37:35.:37:38.

with now is we are dealing with commercial organisations, for whom

:37:39.:37:43.

they do not have a responsibility to protect their customer, their

:37:44.:37:47.

clients from harm. Frankly, you have signed your life away as soon as you

:37:48.:37:51.

tick the box and say you agree to all the terms and conditions. The

:37:52.:37:57.

rules are being rewritten, or as my date Nikki says, maybe your weird is

:37:58.:38:04.

nigh normal. 100 years ago today the first shots

:38:05.:38:08.

were already being fired in war that would wreck much of the world and

:38:09.:38:12.

leave nine million people dead. Centinary events are under way

:38:13.:38:16.

around the country, but how do we remember that terrible conflict. For

:38:17.:38:19.

most of us poetry has conditioned what we think and how we see those

:38:20.:38:29.

terrible days. Owen and Sassoon, the geniuses among the war poets, have

:38:30.:38:33.

their names inscribed in Westminster Abbey and many of our hearts. Why

:38:34.:38:38.

does poetry loom so large in our memory of the war. Does it reveal

:38:39.:38:43.

truth or give a distorted view. We will discuss that in a minute. Here

:38:44.:38:49.

is Sassoon at his most evocative, animated by Newsnight's Aslan

:38:50.:38:58.

Livingston The actor David Harewood reading

:38:59.:41:12.

very well there. The author of Faithful Year, about 1914 is here

:41:13.:41:19.

with an historian who has written extensively about German military

:41:20.:41:23.

planning in the run up to 1914. We do, I think, see the First World

:41:24.:41:28.

War through the prism of Owen and Sassoon, as that period when the

:41:29.:41:32.

flower of England was wiped out in this most futile of all wars. Is

:41:33.:41:36.

that the correct way to see the First World War? No, and I think the

:41:37.:41:41.

problem is that since the 1960s schoolchildren have been taught

:41:42.:41:44.

about the First World War largely through the prism of poetry, it

:41:45.:41:48.

isn't just the poetry, it is the prose literature which started

:41:49.:41:53.

coming out at the end of the 20s, which also portrays a disillusioned

:41:54.:41:57.

view of the war. Of course Sassoon's view of the war has value, but it is

:41:58.:42:01.

an individual response for the war, written for all sorts of reasons,

:42:02.:42:05.

political, class reasons and even sexual reasons, Sassoon's homoerotic

:42:06.:42:11.

impulse conditions the way he takes his mens' side against their

:42:12.:42:14.

officers, and of course he's one of the officer class himself. So we

:42:15.:42:19.

need to look at it as historical evidence. One of the things I hope

:42:20.:42:23.

will emerge from four years of commemoration of the First World War

:42:24.:42:28.

is the idea we should have a non-know lithic -- man know lithic

:42:29.:42:34.

view of the -- monolithic view of the First World War. There were so

:42:35.:42:37.

many people living in this country with different views about going to

:42:38.:42:41.

war and enlisting. Up until this point we have had a very sort of

:42:42.:42:45.

black and white view of how the war was. How is the war seen in Germany?

:42:46.:42:52.

Completely differently to how it is seen in this country. The prism that

:42:53.:42:55.

you described is a different one, the prism is the Second World War

:42:56.:42:59.

and everything that happened before the First World War is just not as

:43:00.:43:05.

important. I have to say until quite recently that was the case. The

:43:06.:43:08.

Second World War which was so much more destructive and horrific for

:43:09.:43:12.

Germans than even the First World War has only recently featured in

:43:13.:43:17.

the popular imagination. In anything resellbling the enthusiasm --

:43:18.:43:20.

resellbling the enthusiasm that exists in the First World War in

:43:21.:43:23.

this country. What do you mean by that, how has that view changed,

:43:24.:43:27.

what sort of enthusiasm do we now see in Germany then? The enthusiasm

:43:28.:43:33.

is primarily around discussing, yet again, the origins of the war, the

:43:34.:43:38.

responsibility. Who is to blame? Who is to blame. What is the prevailing

:43:39.:43:45.

view in Germany? Until probably a year or so ago I would have said

:43:46.:43:48.

most people would agree that Germany was more to blame than others, after

:43:49.:43:54.

decades of debate, historians and the general public had agreed, I

:43:55.:43:58.

think, on that. But with recent publications on the origins of the

:43:59.:44:02.

First World War that has really shifted again. And there is among a

:44:03.:44:07.

large section of the German public and among historian as real relief,

:44:08.:44:13.

if you like, that finally we can brush aside this guilt, at least,

:44:14.:44:16.

not the guilt for the Second World War, but finally after 100 years we

:44:17.:44:21.

can say we did not cause the First World War. But does art condition

:44:22.:44:25.

the way the Germans see the First World War in the way that the poets,

:44:26.:44:30.

thGreat British poets condition the way we see it? Much, much less so I

:44:31.:44:35.

would say. There isn't this tradition of looking at the famous

:44:36.:44:38.

war poets, or the idea that would you teach those kinds of poems at

:44:39.:44:44.

schools, as you mentioned, that doesn't exist, that is partly

:44:45.:44:46.

because after the first world war there was a much more fractured

:44:47.:44:51.

memory of the war. Obviously when we look at the war poets we realise

:44:52.:44:54.

that is one view and there were others, but it has been boiled down

:44:55.:44:57.

for most people to one view, that never happened in Germany, it was

:44:58.:45:02.

always a fought over memory. So, help us out here, the war poets are

:45:03.:45:06.

wrong, what is the right way of seeing the First World War? The war

:45:07.:45:11.

poets are not wrong, but they only represent one point of view. What

:45:12.:45:15.

historians in Britain are particularly exercised about is the

:45:16.:45:19.

idea that the war was completely futile, when we get to 2018 it will

:45:20.:45:23.

be interesting to see exactly what national commemoration will take

:45:24.:45:29.

place of the 100 years, the 100 days of Britain's march to victory,

:45:30.:45:33.

because historians are exercised that 1918 is a forgotten victory in

:45:34.:45:38.

Britain's history because Britain won the war.

:45:39.:45:43.

Just to be clear about this, what is your own view about who was more to

:45:44.:45:50.

blame for the origin? Good gracious! Nice easy question? Well I suppose

:45:51.:45:55.

it is the ministers around the Kaiser I think are to blame. They

:45:56.:46:00.

had a very strong idea of the need to go to war as soon as possible. I

:46:01.:46:03.

think you sort of agree with that don't you? I would say they are more

:46:04.:46:07.

to blame than others but not exclusively so, you can attribute

:46:08.:46:11.

blame to other Governments I would definitely start in Germany and

:46:12.:46:15.

Austria and Hungary. That is it for tonight. We leave you with the work

:46:16.:46:21.

of the photography artist Greg Siegel who took pictures of family

:46:22.:46:24.

and friends lying down in a collection of their own rubbish, is

:46:25.:46:29.

this a metaphor for my debut on Newsnight. I fear it might be, good

:46:30.:46:31.

night. Hello there, I think for most of us

:46:32.:47:05.

tomorrow a similar day, which means northern parts of the UK, brisk

:47:06.:47:09.

winds blowing in from the west, bringing a scattering of showers,

:47:10.:47:12.

best of the dry and sunny weather the further south you are. So

:47:13.:47:15.

through the afternoon, I think across Northern Ireland, still the

:47:16.:47:16.

chance

:47:17.:47:17.

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