30/07/2014 Newsnight

killing continues unabated in the Middle East tonight. Over 13 more

Palestinians have died in Gaza and three Israeli soldiers have lost

their lives. As shells hit a market and a UN school in Gaza, the US said

it was extremely concerned about the safety of Palestinian civilians. It

has pressed again for a ceasefire. Tonight we look at the crumbling

borders of countries across the Middle East. How much more chaos can

the region withstand before whole states such as Syria and Iraq

fracture completely. We will hear live from Tel Aviv and Dubai, and

voices from Lebanon and Egypt are here in our London studio. As

ununeasy truce leaves more dead on both sides in Gaza, we are in Israel

hearing from those living in the midst of war. How can I make my

children, grandchildren living here, how can I allow them, give them a

safe life? If I don't do what they are doing now in Gaza.

And Twitter as instrument of warfare, ISIS is ruthless leaks

exploiting the power of social media to terrorise its enemies. We report

on the propaganda and ideas but social media being used to

increasingly to spread fear. Now the great hope of the Arab

Spring that began more than three years ago was that democracy and

stability would break out all over the Middle East. It didn't happen.

Instead there has been turmoil, bloodshed and atrocities on a

terrifying scale. With an elected leader turfed out in Egypt, Libya

apparently disintegrating and a new and extraordinary bloody Jihadist

group, ISIS capturing swathes of Iraq and Syria. In this mess old

friendships and emnities are being replaced. Rereport tonight on where

the state boundaries of the new Middle East will be drawn, if, that

is, this chaos ever ends. The Middle East is a house designed

by Europeans but sat on the foundations of the ottoman empire.

Its Monarchies and ministries aped those of Europe, and for several

decades it provided stability, now the region is in crisis. It is the

chaos caused by a new mutation of political Islam that is the first

point in understanding this. Arab regimes across the region have

failed, economically, politically, on the security front, they have

failed to form a regional structure, any form of permanent stability.

Absent some form of channel where the Arab public can get involved in

governance, Islamism has been the only gateway. Are the old

ideologyists of ba'athist and others have failed and will a caliphate

sweep before it. We know this new wave of Islamist politics is a

threat to elites and states across the region.

There is another thing that's become clear too, that trying to drop

another western construct, liberal democracy into the current cauldron

of the Middle East simply isn't going to work. For now, at least,

the called Arab Spring is going nowhere. In some placeses, like

Iraq, it has been trumped by the politics of identity. While the old

authoritarian ottoman model, ruled by the Pasha or general, has shown

its resilience in Egypt and Algeria. Where the old strong men are swept

away, Gadaffi or Saddam, fragmentation has followed. That

means old borders coming into question too.

The most obvious example has been the disappearing bordered between

Iraq by ISIS, it is a new Sunni state, the Kurds have gotten in on

the act pushing forward their quest for statehood, Libya is in danger of

fragmentation with the east, and the ancient lines Cyrenaica. Don't

forget that even in Iraq or Libya, there are still leaders who aspire

to control of the whole, not just some rump statelet. You find a

tenacious commitment to the state as the unit of primary identity. Now

there are a lot of other identities going on, religious, ethnic as well,

but the state survives, and the state survives as the unit of

primary identity across the whole of the region. And don't forget that

other hangover of British rule, Israel. There has been a 100 year

argument about its existence and borders. And that times like now

that conflict can inflame the whole region. But new forces are coming

into play. New alliances in fact emerging in the Middle East, and

where as outsiders are happy to sell weapons to these power brokers,

regional players are key. So Iran has made itself the guardian of the

Shia, forging a power block with Hezbollah in Lebanon, President

Assad's regime in Syria and increasingly the rump state of Iraq.

Saudi Arabia champions the Sunni Arabs, pouring resources into the

Syrian opposition, and its cache has made a client of Egypt too. The

Saudis are not necessarily fighting the Iranians, based on religious

foundations. In part this is a traditional conflict between two

very important regional powers which have a very significant influence,

fighting over controlling the Middle East at a time when the US is

disengaging. But this isn't just a simple binary soweddy Iranian

contest. Saudi Arabia's will has been flouted by Qatar, also Sunni,

backing Islamists in Egypt and Gaza. Israel too makes its own rules.

Some, dare I mention Tony Blair, say the west must take sides and ally

with the Saudi block. The more general western attitude is to steer

well clear. Should we in the west be worried? Yes and deeply. Because

there is turmoil in the Middle East and it is likely to stay that way

for the foreseeable future. And whether or not we want to get

involved we will be affected. This will come back to bite you. If you

think of the huge trouble of turning, of the United States and

the international community turning its back on Afghanistan, leading to

the birth of Al-Qaeda and a transnational Jihadi movement, it

took days for a young Jihadi tourist to move across, it days hours to go

across the border and get into Syria. Clearly this problem will

come back and bite Europe especially hard, and also the United States.

Growing chaos in Libya or Iraq could raise energy prices and hit economic

recovery. Refugees from Syria or Libya flee to the EU, airspace is

becoming unsafe for the big chunks of the region. As for the ungoverned

space that is also opening up in several countries, it provides a

potential home for piracy, extremism and perhaps even the next 9/11. So

why are the boundaries that have been relatively firm for the best

part of a century now being redrawn. Is there any hope of a return to a

more peaceful settled region, what does it mean here for us in the

west. With me to discuss this are my guest, the cofounder of the Shark

Forum, and former Director General of Al-Jazeera, the television

station, and we have the longest continuously serving American

official in Iraq, and from Tel Aviv we have the former director of

Israel's Intelligence Service, Mosad. In the studio here with me is

a professor from the London School of Economics and Egyptian activists

and author. Good evening to you all. If I could

start by asking you do you believe that the Middle East is entering

perhaps its most unstable and dangerous phase for many decades?

Actually I do believe that, and I do believe maybe this is the phase of

real transformation, maybe this is the most difficult time that the

Middle East is going through since 1917, since the First World War when

the boundaries and the borders of the so called Middle East were

drawn. I think right now there are trends that are combined together

that might change and reshape the region. One of them is the rise of

generals and military versus the decline of politics. The other one

is the fact that the regional system is collapsing and the boundaries and

the borders amongst countries in the region are becoming more irrelevant

than ever. The third is the delegitimisation of the state,

because the state is not seen as an actor that can represent the hopes

and dreams of the nation. And the fact that democracy doesn't exist

any more. Three years ago we tellrated Tahrir Square, and thought

we were going into a new values-centered system that would

restructure the Middle East on democracy, but democracy has been

murdered in Egypt and across the region, and that is to the silence

of the International Society and the collaboration of regional powers, I

think we are going through this phase where ISIS has become an actor

and more and more people are moving towards an alternative out of this

and feeling betrayal. This sounds like total disaster. Is this

unstoppable chaos? It is indeed a disaster generally speaking. The

fact is the region is more unstable now than it has been in a century, I

agree on that front. These historic trends are not easily predictable.

It is hard to say whether it is unstoppable or not. Certainly the

forces of history are moving very quickly and we all have to be very

careful, particularly in the west to preserve our strategic alliances and

be on guard for strategic foes like Al-Qaeda, ISIS and other radical

Islamist groups which are clearly gaining momentum across the region.

If we could move on to this question of borders and whether the map is

being redrawn. Now there are those who simply argue that the existing

borders were an imposition of colonial powers like Britain, and

that therefore they were always at some point going to collapse,

because they don't reflect the cultural, racial economic realities,

is that your view, Professor, that what we are seeing is inevitable?

The modern Middle East was invented by the colonial powers. The modern

state system is not and was not economically socially viable. It is

not viable, period. We simplify it great deal if we say it is a matter

of boundaries. Even though the modern state system was seen as I

will imate it has taken deep root since the 1920s. The crisis is

bigger, what we are witnessing in the Middle East now is a

revolutionary moment. A moment that really is comparable to the great

revolutionary moments in history, whether you are talking about the

French Revolution or the Russian revolutions. What we are witnessing

unfolding before our eyes is fierce social and political struggles,

bottom-up politics, the system has been turned upside down, you have

Civil War, ideolgical wars, the old system is resisting, the counter

revolutionary forces in the region, a new system is not born yet. It

would be a mistake to say this is the end of the story. It will take

many years for the dust to settle on the battlefield in many countries in

the region. You were a great supporter, indeed activist in the

Arab Spring, but given the chaos we are now seeing and atrocities on a

really terrifying scale, do you think that actually what we saw then

has turned out to be a rather dangerous and bad thing? No, I

don't, not at all. I would say that I was an activist on behalf of the

Egyptian revolution, I think the Arab Spring as a term is very

problematic. Even in Egypt we have had democracy over, well an elected

President thrown out. It hasn't worked has it? It hasn't worked so

far. I think that the example of Dr Morsi being dethroned is

problematic, because it was certainly done in the wrong way. But

it was actually reflective of the will of the people. The people will

probably live to regret it, but we were in the process of a revolution.

I think it is really strange how people talk about historic processes

taking place in the region, as though they were talking about

natural phenomena. While in fact there are actors making things

happen, what is happening in Gaza now is from Israel, it is the will

of the people, it is not an inevitable historic process, it is

very much a part of what is destablising the region and making

life difficult. We have to remember that the Islamist movements all

started as protest movement, all started as dissident movements

against autocratic, dictatorial regimes, and then of course they

take the path that they take and in the long absence of victory, I think

also Iraq. Again talking about an historic process in Iraq and how it

is breaking up and talking about racial ethnic religious divide,

let's remember what the United States there. Let's just remember

that this entire region, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine,

was all a unit that worked and that worked for hundreds and hundreds of

years with this entire... We are where we are now and we have to move

on to the issue of shifting alliances. And if I could talk to,

it is pretty widely recognised that what ISIS is doing in fracturing

Iraq, fracturing Syria, committing terrible atrocities is pretty

appalling. Was the west simply mistaken in turning against

President Assad in Syria? Can you hear me? I think that the west, I

said I think that the west miscalculated on Syria. Like almost

everybody else miscalculated on Syria. I don't think that the Assad

regime would have survived today without the support of three outside

elements, one is Hezbollah from Lebanon, who are fighting on Syrian

soil and are carrying much of the brunt of the battle. The other is

Iran, which also has boots on the ground today, and the third is

Russia which is supplying the Assad regime with the necessary weaponry

in order to maintain its supremacy in the battlefield. And that, I

think, is something which we have to take into account today, no less

than what you have mentioned up until now. We have a situation in

the Middle East where on the one hand we had known state actors, like

Hamas and the Hezbollah, and we have other non-state actors which are

becoming semi-independent, like the Kurdish region in northern Iraq. So

the situation is varied in the Middle East. Many things are

happening simultaneously. It would be wrong to lump everything

together. If I could just ask you, do you think we have to in a sense

simply accept a sort of new caliphate is being created by ISIS

and accommodate it? I think it is a something that has risen out. Sorry

go on? I think this is a phenomena that has risen out of this kind of

chaos and despair, and the feeling of lack of hope in the future and

the feeling that the channels of real change and reform have been

blocked and the feeling of humiliation. Actually it is not only

ISIS and the caliphate, it is what is happening in Gaza that is going

to even radicalise the Arab world further, and maybe accumulate all

that kind of anger and feeling of humiliation and direct it towards a

cause that resides in the hearts of the Arabs and Muslims and unify

them. So what I see right now in Gaza is actually what might become

the beginning of a new trend in the region where all these kinds of

problems might be directed towards the cause which we call the cause of

Palestine, the Israelis at the moment are committing maybe suicide

in provoking a nation that is going through transformation and the

Israelis who are now bombarding our images, our TV screens, our mobile

phones with images of civilians that have been killed, I think this is

going to be even much worse than whatever we have experienced in Iraq

and any other place. We will come back to that in a second. Before we

move on to the issue of the threat to all of us. I have one further

question on this issue which is to you Mr Kadaire, America appears to

have shown itself utterly powerless, John Kerry's attempts to broker

peace over Palestine have failed miserably, what should America be

doing in this situation? Indeed we have noticed a remarkable series of

American foreign policies over the last 15 years or so, obviously

President George W Bush was an ultra activist and now President Obama is

essentially an isolationist, essentially withdrawing from most

parts of the Middle East in favour of what is essentially an

isolationist policy. I think it is critical for the United States and

for Washington to actively reengage with the region, with all of our

regional allies, the Israelis, the gulf Arab countries, the Egyptians,

the Turk, in Baghdad and in Erbil, because what is clearly evident over

the past several years that with the American vacuum that's been left

under the Obama registration in the region -- administration in the

region. World powers and regional powers trying to fill the vacuum. In

Iraq there is a proxy war being waged between Iran, some of the gulf

Arab countries or individuals, for example Turkey, the same thing is

occurring in Syria. As was said there is a proxy war being waged

again between some gulf money and clearly the Russians, Hezbollah and

the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are involved. So it is a very unstable

situation and one thing I can continue to hear from frankly all of

our regional allies, our historic allies, they feel that the Obama

administration has disengaged and many regional leaders are counting

down the days for Obama to leave office hopeful that a future

American President will reengage in the region and support its allies

and go on the offensive against historic foes like the Iranian

Revolutionary Guards or Al-Qaeda. I have to move us on to the issue of

the general threat, both within the region and to the rest of the world.

I would therefore like to pick up with you professor, do you agree

with what was said that broadly what we are seeing in the Palestinian

territories has the potential to spark a really devastating wider

Middle East configuration? It really does. I mean one point we must make

very clear is that the Palestinian tragedy resonates deeply, not just

in the imagination of the Palestinians, in the imagination of

Arabs and Muslims and worldwide. What is happening with Israel's

savage attack in Gaza has already made Hamas a popular movement in the

eyes of millions of Palestinians. That is a major shift in Palestinian

public opinion, it is seen as a symbol of defiance, resisting

Israel's massive military machine, resisting Israel's occupation of

Palestinian lands. In many ways we are witnessing the making, not only

of a third Intifada, but a wider regional conflict as a result of the

massacres and slaughters in Gaza. Where do you see this going in terms

of the impact on the west? Well it depends what attitudes the west has,

I suppose, the west has a huge role and a huge responsibility and it has

been engaged, we have had the quartet, we have had Tony Blair

flying in and out of the region quartet, we have had Tony Blair

like that. The thoughts are that there should be no intervention?

Unless they would like to put a no flight zone and military embargo on

Israel that would be really useful. There is a strong call for that from

all sectors of civil society now. If I could ask for a second, what do

you think the terrorist threat might be from all of this outside of the

region? Allow me just a minute to comment and to reply to some of the

comments which have just been made because I think it is only fair to

allow me to say something about some of the statements just made. First

of all I would like to make it clear that the Hamas which controls Gaza

is a terrorist organisation. It is not an organisation which has been

pronounced terrorist just by Israel, it has been were you nounsed by the

-- pronounced by the Government of Egypt which you know has a border

with Gaza. It has been pronounced a terrorist organisation not only by

the United States of America but many states in Europe. Secondly

Hamas are using method which is are supported amongst others by Iran

today, just as Iran is active in Syria. So I don't think that this is

simply a question of the Hamas being the mouth piece of the Palestinian

movement. I'm sure President Abbas of the Palestinian Authority would

not take this line of thinking and neither do I. I think, therefore,

that we should not discuss the Palestinian issue in this manner as

an adjunct to all the other problems. If we want to focus on the

general problems in the region that is fine. If you want to turn to the

other issues I'm willing to discuss it in detail. You have to discuss

whatever it is you want to discuss. But make sure we know what we are

talking about. We have to move on at this stage. I really just want to

ask whether at this particular juncture you see any hope for

stability returning to the region? Absolutely i think we are going

through a phase in our history whereby we are trying to find some

kind of consensus, political consensus. You should remember that

this region has been deprived from having this kind of dynamics for

decades. We have been ruled by authoritarian regime, we have been

ruled by wrong system, by legitimised states that have never

lived up to the hopes of the public. Right now we find we have that

space, there are many issues to be settled, the issues of identity and

sectarianism, the issues of democracy and the issues of

Palestine, I emphasise it is at the heart of the change. I cannot talk

about a new Middle East without speaking about the location of

Palestine in it. It will go on for some time this debate. Thank you

very much to all of you, we have used up our allotted time, which

doesn't surprise me it was fascinating, thank you very much.

Today over 100 Palestinians and three Israelis died in the on going

fighting in Gaza. The biggest outrage of the day was an attack

before dawn on Gaza school where hundreds of Palestinians, displaced

by the violence, had sought refuge. 16 people died and over 100 were

injured as they slept in what they thought would be a safe haven. We

can talk now to our correspondent who is in Jerusalem, Tim, what's

been the international reaction to this incident? Well the White House

tonight has strongly condemned the attack on the school. Although it

has also condemned people who are hiding weapons in UN facilities. The

UN itself has described the attack as reprehensible and said it warned

the Israeli military authorities 17 times about the location of the

school in the refuge camp. Israel, for its side says it is

investigating, although it says initial indications show there was

in coming Palestinian fire from the school. Tonight a statement from the

Government saying that the operation in Gaza will continue as long as is

necessary to destroy what it calls all terrorists infrastructure. I

have spent the day at an Israeli village right on the border with

Gaza to find out why the public here still so strongly backs their

Government in that aim. On the edge of warzone, they are trying to bring

in the harvest as normal. Israeli farmer grows her tomatoes yards from

the border fence. She can hear the boom of Israeli missiles falling on

the other side. There are regular in coming shells from Hamas in Gaza,

already one of the Thai workers she employs has been killed. It is

definitely dangerous. I don't have a safe place to run to, I know that

all I have to do is lie here on the ground and with my face down and

cover my head with my hands. I'm afraid. She and her husband are

sticking it out here, along with two volunteer workers from the north of

Israel. Though half her village has fled. She has long been a peace

activist, trying to build connections between Israelis and

Gazans. But now, particularly since the discovery of Hamas tunnels

leading to the village, she reluctantly supports her country's

operation in Gaza. When I say violence begets violence, they think

it is just a saying, but it is so true. Because it brings up hatred,

it brings out the worst in people. But how can I make my childrens my

grandchildren living here, how can I allow them, give them a safe life if

I don't do what they are doing now in Gaza. Across the border it has

been another day of death and destruction for Gazans, but the vast

majority of Israelis think the operation is justified. The Prime

Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has told people to prepare for a long

operation in Gaza, and for now public opinion here is

overwhelmingly behind him. The questions from the point of view of

Israelis are how long it will actually take to completely destroy

Hamas's military capability and whether the problem of das STAE, as

they see it, can ever be solved by military means alone. Israel

unilaterally withdrew forces from Gaza in 2005, that subsequently

allowed Hamas to build up its stockpiles of weapons. The man who

was then national security adviser believes Israeli forces must now

destroy those stockpiles for good. We are not that concerned about the

possible high-risk as some people suggest. It is not that is what we

want. But as long as Hamas resist and reject any idea of a ceasefire,

and we are left with only two military option, either to stay

where we are or to try to move forward in order to gain more

military achievement, I believe the latter is more visible. But day

after day it is Palestinian civilians who are being killed, as

well as military targets destroyed. Today at least 17 died in an Israeli

strike near a market. Earlier 15 lost their lives when a UN school

was hit. Israel says its forces were responding to mortar fire from the

school. The UN says it had warned that civilians were sheltering

there. After a strike yesterday on Gaza's only power plant Israel has

been accused by some human rights organisations of deliberately

targeting civilian infrastructure. Critics say that is the doctrine, a

reference to Israel's attacks on the stronghold of Hezbollah militants in

Beirut in the Lebanon war of 2006. Israeli leaders say its forces

always try to avoid civilian casualties, that was easier in

Beirut than Gaza. In southern Beirut Hezbollah concentrated the vast

majority of its leadership in a few small streets, where we could really

target them and exact a very dear price on Hezbollah leadership. In

Gaza the situation is different. Hamas leadership and terrorists are

dispersed both above ground and underground in residential

compounds, in schools and clinics and so on, therefore we cannot

concentrate the same fire power and achieve the same outcome. By

definition in such a crowded area achieve the same outcome. By

will be collateral damage. As that collateral damage mounts and

international pressure grows for ceasefire, some say there will have

to be a political deal to disarm Hamas, removing weapons in return

for massive investment in Gaza. I think there is a chance to achieve

something that can endorse, it could surprisingly be from Hamas on one

hand, if not Hamas, those who support Hamas, Qatar, Turkey and

others. I will not exclude any possibility of huge investment of

money in order to rebuild Gaza to build the infrastructure and to

bring some better hope, better future for the people of Gaza. The

only Israeli demand as part of this package deal is that Gaza will be

demilitarised as far as heavy weapons are concerned. And there has

been a lot of fighting where we can see?

Back on the border Roni knows any such deal is a long way off. She too

thinks in the end only talking will bring a solution in Gaza. They are

leading us on, Hamas. They are bringing us to this, to the point we

are at at the moment, I will never forgive them for that. But on the

other hand I think that unless we do talk to them and understand where

they are coming from we're not going to OK get any where. A little

earlier I spoke to the Israeli Government spokesman. I started by

asking him why Israel's bombardment of Gaza is killing so many innocent

civilians? First of all there is a war going on between us and Hamas.

And in every conflict unfortunately you have a situation where innocent

people get hurt. That is part of history. What we are doing is making

a maximum effort to avoid civilians getting caught up in the crossfire

between us and the terrorists. I think a very genuine effort by

Israel to be as precise as we can in hitting terrorists. But I can't

promise, as no army can promise that innocent people get caught up and

hurt in a conflict. Have you looked at these cases, the bombing of the

market took place when a truce was supposedly in place, do you know

what went wrong? Well, to be fair, we announced that for our

humanitarian truce, and Hamas immediately declared there is no

truce, and they continued shooting rockets at Israel. A truce is a

two-way street, it is not just Israel holding its fireworks it is

Hamas also holding its fire, and its public record that Hamas rejected

the truce. That particular place in the market was an area of combat

today. I don't know exactly what happened at the market yet, we are

still investigating. We will get to the bottom of it. But in the case of

the school, the UN itself has declared it as a violation of

international law, and has also pointed out that the people in the

school were people who had been evacuated from their homes because

you had warned them to get out of their homes and they had gone to

where they thought was a place of shelter and it turned out they were

not safe there. Surely that embarrasses you? It is a tragedy

what happened at the school and we simple thighes with all the --

sympathise with all the international outrage, we didn't see

what happened at the school happen. It is not clear to us that it was

our fire, but we know for a fact there was hostile fire on our people

from the vicinity of the school. We do know for a fact that there have

been three documented cases that the UN has spoken about, not Israel,

where weapons, rockets have been stored in UN facilities in in UN

schools. It is clear that this demonstrates Hamas has a deliberate

policy of brutalising UN facilities, using UN facilities as a human

shield, violating UN neutrality, violating the humanitarian essence

of a UN body and they should be condemned for it. I know that the

secretary-general of the United Nations has ordered an investigation

how this has happened, and if the particular agency involved can do

more to prevent its institutions being turned into part of the Hamas

war machine. But the problem in this case is that Ban Ki-Moon has said

that all the evidence does point to you having bombed the school? That's

what he said today? We will investigate that, and if we find it

was fire from Israel we will apologise if that is the case. When

it is shown that we have mistakenly killed civilians we have apologised.

There was the terrible story of the four boys on the beach, President

Perez himself -- Peres himself got up and apologised. We don't want to

kill Gazan civilians we have a policy not to target civilians. What

I find striking is the perception in much of the outside world in Israel

has changed. There was a poll of British people and it showed that

more than 60% of British people think that Israel is guilty of war

crimes. It is only marginally less than the people who think Hamas is

guilty of war crimes. Doesn't that embarrass you? It is a bit strange,

on the one hand Israel is a democracy, imperfect, but a

democracy, we have representative Government and a free press and

institutions that are transparent and so forth. And we're up against a

brutal extreme terrorist organisation, Hamas. Which is in the

mode of Boko Haram in Nigeria, or ISIS in Iraq, or Hezbollah in

Lebanon. Radical and extreme organisation that rules Gaza with an

iron fist. One of the problems with the pictures coming out of Gaza, and

I dare to challenge even the BBC reporters there, that Hamas can

control the message much more than we can out of Israel. Because if you

walk down the street in Gaza with a camera of the BBC, even a Newsnight

camera if you allow me, you ask were there Hamas people outside the

school shooting at Israeli soldiers, what can people say? Of course they

can't say because Hamas doesn't allow criticism. I think in many

ways Hamas can send out a very warped picture of what is going on

in Gaza. How many pictures have you seen of dead Hamas... There may be,

to an extent, a distorted picture of the sort that you describe, but it

is a fact that 22 Palestinians are dying for every one Israeli and this

is shocking much of the world. Do you care what the world thinks about

your behaviour in this war? Of course I do, that's why I'm staying

up here in the middle of the night doing Newsnight. Of course I care.

But let's be clear, we don't have moraly casualties, not because Hamas

isn't trying. We have had now 2,700 rockets fired at Israeli cities. But

you have the Iron Dome which protects your cities, you are more

or less invulnerable to these rockets? So we have, I think

invulnerable is too strong a word, Sir. We have invested millions of

dollars in protecting our people in bomb shelters and in sirens I'm sure

the British Government would do the same for the British people. We

can't allow people to shoot at our cities and trying to kill our people

with impunity, that is clear. We cities and trying to kill our people

have had now this onslaught going on for weeks, we have been told that

part of the aim is to close down these tunnels. When will you have

done the job that you want to do? Ultimately our goals are defensive,

I would even say defensive in the extreme. We just want to have piece

and quiet and a bit of security for our people. So if we come out of

this and the Hamas military machine is diminished and they understand

that they cannot shoot rockets at Israelis with impunity, that would

be a good thing. And what could it be, even better if Hamas comes out

of this weakened both militarily and politically, that could give a bit

of oxygen maybe to Palestinian moderates to move into the vacuum

and maybe have a more energetic peace process. The world woke up to

the power of social media to effect huge political change with the way

Twitter and Facebook were used in the Arab Spring. Now in the

conflicts proliferating throughout the Middle East the Internet has

become an instrument of terror, with ISIS releasing horrific footage of

the ISIS releasing horrific footage of

frighten its enemies so they flee before a bullet is fired. We report

on the new propagada war, this film contains very disturbing images.

Conflicts in the Middle East run along very old lines. The Israeli

Palestinian conflict goes back decades. Tensions between Shias and

Sunnis go back centuries. And they are boiling over in Iraq and Syria

and beyond. But a new fault line has emerged in recent years. Social

media. Cyber battles are now changing the age-old conflicts

between the people in power and the power of the people. Most of us use

these tools now, for some they are weapons. To start a revolution or to

wage a war. The power of social media was mobilised in 2009 in

Iran's failed Green Revolution, and then in the historic uprisings

called the Arab Spring, they started in Tunisia, Egypt and across the

region. It is not just activists who have recognised this power.

Governments, regimes use it too. In Syria, for example, the Syrian

electronic army is described as the first virtual Arab army. It hacks

into websites of the opposition, western media, and human rights

groups. In real wars social media has become a weapon in every

armoury. In the Gaza war Israel is turning to it to take the high

ground. To deny they targeted civilians in a school. To make it

clear Hamas is the agressor. There is even a clever app that allows you

to imagine the range of these rockets. Wherever re wherever you

are. The narrative is carried by many people on many fronts.

University volunteers joined the effort. A large portion of our

efforts is trying to comment and talk back on articles and posts that

are pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel. We do it on Facebook and Twitter and

websites and articles that we find. Right now the war is not only in the

front it is also a lot in the media. But Hamas is on this frontline too.

Videos from their tunnels are widely available on video sharing sites

like you YouTube and they are active on Twitter too. They have even

released guidelines on how Gazans should use Twitter to report Israeli

assaults. But Israel is an old hand in this information war. With an

army of savvy spokespersons, coached by the best in the business.

Persuadables won't care how much you know until they know how much you

care. Show empathy for both sides. But as the old saying goes, a

picture is worth a thousand words. In the Gaza war, so strong are the

images, they are worth millions of words. Buts the images used by the

most violent groups that have no compare. That is That's the points.

Videos released by compare. That is That's the points.

Iraq, they are meant to shock, and they do. Images like young Shia

soldiers in Iraq being led away and executed en masse are the latest to

emerge. On the one hand they are doing it to scare a target audience

which in this case is specifically Iraqi soldiers, trying to fight

against them. On the other hand it is an element of recruitment, you

are trying to attract people and showing you are strong and you

control the territory and does these things to people. The final note

which is more to ISIS is the idea of showing extreme brutality and using

it to draw people in. Across the Middle East conflicts are merging in

some ways, remaining distinct in others. But when it comes to the

battle for hearts and minds, even the most asymmetric wars are being

fought with at least one weapon now available to all.

With me to discuss who is winning the Middle East battle of social

media is my guest. These images of ISIS slaughtering Iraqi soldiers in

this brutal way. I mean they are obviously deeply shocking. They do

remind me a bit, I don't know if you remember during the Chechen conflict

there were images released of Chechens slaughtering Russians, does

this represent, in your view, a stepping up of and a change in the

way the Internet is used to get a message across? ISIS is doing what

many other groups have done, it is doing it fundamentally more

effectively, more effectively than competitors and its ex-parent

organisation Al-Qaeda. What is the point of it? The point is simple, it

is two fold, one to show how strong they are, to intimidate their

enemies and it has worked. Iraqi soldiers surrender without a fight,

because they have seen those videos, and the second point is to show

other groups why they should join ISIS, that is also, to some extent,

not to the extent ISIS hoped is working. Why join us rather than

Al-Qaeda, well Al-Qaeda is sitting in Pakistan in a house doing

absolutely nothing, where as we have taken over half of Iraq, here is the

video to prove it. Do you think these image, these brutal images

actually work to an extent to recruit potential new soldiers? I

think they do, although of course we have had many cases where Jihadists,

wet behind the ears, have turned up in Syria and Iraq and found the

reality of combat is far worse than evidenced by the glamorous videos

that they had seen on-line. It has a dual effect. The other factor is the

more brutal they appear the more they can shock some people into

surrender but the more they scare Iraq's Shia majority into resisting

their brutal sadistic form of rule even more vociferously. There is a

slight oddity, if you look at Hamas that released film of their

competence of going through the tunnels and attacking Israeli

soldiers, that broadly reinforced the Israeli case that Hamas is a

brutal terrorist organisation. To an extent therefore may well have back

fired in terms of world opinion? I think it will backfire more than the

images of the tunnels, which were effective in showing that Hamas were

still in the game and their ceasefire conditions need to be

taken seriously, with the images of syringes and handcuffs broadcast

within those tunnels is a chilling image to Israelis who understand the

history of kidnapping that those tunnels were used for. The fact that

Hamas is still able to inflict a cost on Israel, that rephoners their

point that -- reinforces the point that the ceasefire has to be on

their terms too. Does social media and the Internet broadly now level

the playing field between the state and terrorist organisations when it

comes to propaganda? No, I would say, part of the reason is the same

medium that is used as propaganda by both of these competents, state and

non-state, is also used very, very effectively by reporters on the

ground who can connect immediately viscerally to use and cancel out

both of those claims. I'm very grateful, we have one run out of

time, that is all we have time for tonight on the Middle East special.

Good night.