08/09/2014 Newsnight

Tonight we're live in Edinburgh, still part of the United Kingdom,

but a vote next week to change all that for good. With ten days to go

the yes campaign has electrified the race. What can the unionists come up

with to win hearts now? These are big changes, that we are proposing,

to strengthen the Scottish Parliament but at the same time to

stay as part of the United Kingdom. The shivers are running from head to

foot through Westminster's political establishment, will they be looking

at a collective failure to save 300 years of history. Polling God John

Curtice takes us through tonight's numbers and... Obviously the debate

about Scottish independence has focussed on the people behind me who

live in Scotland. What about the other participants in the

300-year-old marriage, what does it mean for the people who live over

there. The Scottish shadow secretary may soon have a country in his own

portfolio, how does he feel? Good evening from Edinburgh, not

since hamlet's agony over to be or not to be has such a deceptively

simple question proved so difficult to answer. Half of Scotland want to

be an independent country and the other half don't. In race that

seemed to be happily chugging along for 18 months and the final paces

with numbers that appear to be too close to call have been electrified,

leaving a country split down the middle. Today it was the turn of a

former British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, to set the agenda, a

man who some would say declared his own independence from Westminster

some four years ago. Cutting it fine, after more than 800

days of campaigning, tonight a new promise for the union has arrived. A

timetable for Gordon Brown for more powers over tax and welfare and

soon. I say that this represents the new union of the 21st century. It is

essentially Home Rule for Scotland within the United Kingdom. It is as

close to federalism as you can be in a country where 85% of the

population is from one-nation. It is extensive social and economic

devolution, that ends the accusation that we're a centralist, unitary

uniform state. There is ten days late and

uniform state. There is ten days comes out with promises? I hate to

say this I wrote a few months ago we should set a timetable and be clear

about how quickly we could deliver the proposals. Who has been holding

it back? I made the proposal to the Conservatives and said this was the

right thing to do. I hope they will now come round to the view this is

the right thing to do. One source in the no campaign describes what is

happening as horrific in streets, where in the past, Labour hardly had

to try, voters are starting to say yes. With just ten days to go, there

is evidence the SNP is starting to do what they had always hoped to and

had to achieve. Peel off traditional solid Labour support from places

like this and move those voters towards backing independence. It is

not just a frenzy caused by one poll, but a real conviction, there

is a chance for independence. We shouldn't be having our imperialist

masters telling us what to do. Imperialists masters? Well we were

all part of the empire and Scotland contributed at one

all part of the empire and Scotland seen the light and getting away from

it. Mitch Darling Dearly McAllister -- Alastair darling is too keen to

hang on. You are having a pop. You have walked past the yes campaign

and said "scary" why? A lot of people are jumping on the yes

bandwagon without considering the final consequences. The argument at

the heart of the campaign is not that independence is a panacea, it

puts us in charge of our own resources not just what Westminster

allows us, we take decisions about our own priorities.

If the pound slips to an all time low, what happens when you win?

Let's be calm, during political campaigns on budget days it is not

unusual to see the value of the pound fluctuate. Much of the

uncertainty flows from the UK's Government irrational refusal to

discuss about a currency union. Why is it irrational? It would be

against the interests of Scotland but the rest of the UK in terms of

transaction costs and losing the value of Scottish exports from the

balance of payments now. Why would a rational UK Government turn its back

on the vast contribution of Scottish exports to the balance of payments

putting its trade deficit. It is Scotland turning its back on the

rest of the UK not the rest of the UK turning its back on Scotland? We

are not turning our back on anybody, we will be working with friends

across the islands but on the basis of equality. It is not just about a

country with more of its own control, for some voters it is about

escape. We will be laughing at you... . Again and again the no

campaign are attacked for being proto-Tories. Exiting is a way of

moving away from Conservatives for good. Get the Tories out. What it

says is "to end Tory rule forever? " I voted against devolution in 1979,

I thought we were the one country. Margaret Thatcher came along and

proved we are not. Should people in 2014 be voting to get rid of

something that you believe Margaret Thatcher created? That is not

exactly looking to the future? Every positive has a negative, we are

voting for democracy, that is the most important thing. It will be a

total disaster for Scotland. I strongly believe that we are all

very much better together. We are intermarried, 400,000 people from

the rest of the UK live and work in Scotland. 800,000 people live and

work in the UK from Scotland. Absolutely no, I will move to

England. You feel as passionately as that? As passionately. Why? Because

if you have got any money we're going to be taxed to the hilt.

Gordon Brown is determined with his plan to turn yeses to no. But it

won't be easy. Whatever the unionists put forward in these last

ten days it might struggle to get through. The yes campaign isn't just

putting forward an argument for independence, but it is honing in on

a distrust, a dislike, a disillusionment with Westminster.

And that's starting to work. Unhappy unionists claim their private

numbers still hold up. Those who would leave the UK and start anew

may have the energy, but yes still feels like maybe.

That was We will talk more about that disillusionment in a moment.

First to the weekend, and the YouGov poll put the yes campaign ahead for

the first time. An independent Scotland now seems more like a

realistic possibility. The psephologist John Curtice has put

together a poll of polls looking at how what Scotland thinks has changed

over the past year. Based on the average of six key polls at the

beginning of the year, the no vote was on a lead of 25 points. Now

according to YouGov those supporting independence are now at 51%, leaving

the no vote lagging behind at 49%. Let's join Professor Curtice right

now. And there is a new poll that is coming out tonight. I know that is

embargoed until midnight. But some of the papers are looking at it.

Broadly, John, does that follow the same thrust as the one this weekend?

Well, at the weekend we had two opinion poll, one from YouGov

suggesting a dramatic swing putting yes ahead, but Panelbase putting not

detecting a swing. It looks from what I have seen that maybe when the

poll comes out at midnight we will be confirmed in the view that

something has indeed changed and this race looks an awful lot closer.

Where you Where do you feel it is changing? Is it to do with age,

gender-based The truth is one group seems to be resistant to the idea of

an independent Scotland and remains as unconvinced of the idea of it

that is the over 60s and the over 65s. The two groups amongst whom

there is progress being made, that is more working-class less well off

voters who have always been inclined to say that they were more willing

to vote yes, they seem to have swung more strongly in numbers to yes. And

there is some evidence that the yes side have overcome the gender gap,

if it was only men voting the yes vote would have it. Certainly some

of the target groups for the yes side, younger voters, working-class

voters and women they seem to have made progress under. Do the polls

seem to suggest what is driving the change now. I mean when more people

appear to be saying yes, or the undecides are no longer undecided

what is pushing them? The first thing that is pushing them is the

issue we have always known is central to whether or not someone is

likely to be a yes or no voter which is whether or not they think that

independence will be good or bad for Scotland's economy, that, which

according to YouGov was something where as recently as June we almost

had twice as many people who said they were pessimistic about the

economic consequences were optimistic, those two groups are now

roughly equal in size. There has been a dramatic increase in

optimisim that independence would make Scotland better, that is a

message that has got through to voters who are currently not

terribly better off and are looking for a better tomorrow. You may ask

how is that possible given that during recent weeks one of the key

messages from the no side is Alex Salmond doesn't have a plan for the

currency and you can't keep the pound, it will all be disaster. The

answer seems to be that the argument on the currency has been overegged

by the no side. And that what was already true, that a significant

proportion of Scotland's population thought they were bluffing, that

proportion has increased considerably by YouGov it is

actually only half do so. This raises a question as to whether or

not the no side have a credibility problem that voters have stopped

believing the claims about the consequences of the division that

they are trying to get across. We have the Treasury spokesman with

us in London tonight. If it comes down to the economy, what are we to

make of the pound today at its lowest rate for some ten months

against the dollar, over fears that yes will win? Over the last year the

pound has fallen around 1% a day over 16 occasions against the euro,

on three occasions against the dollar. So what we are seeing isn't

actually that unusual. I think it is less to do with Scottish

independence and more to do with the markets being rather spooked by the

lack of preparedness of the UK Government, particularly their

strange idiotic refusal even to negotiate on a currency union which

has Nicola Sturgeon said earlier in the programme is clearly in the best

interest to Scotland and the rest of the UK. Right so when Alex Salmond

during the debate there were three Plan Bs but refused to explain what

would happen without the pound, can you fill in the gaps? What the First

Minister all along has said is we have looked at every single one of

the options and we know and inAlastair Darling confirmed it, the

formal currency union that the commission proposed is the best

option. The sterling zone and sterling the currency needs the ?100

billion of Scottish exports receipted in sterling. It needs that

desperately. It also is the ?60 billion fair trade from England into

Scotland needs to avoid transaction cost that is could destroy hundreds

of thousands of English jobs, there are many reasons why currency union

makes sense. When you have eminent economists like Professor Krugman

today writing there is no way you can join a currency union when the

country has refused, not to have control of your own currency, he

says, is nightmarish. You are just going to ignore that? I'm not going

to ignore it, I will always listen to what the professor says, but one

looks at Germany, that uses a shared currency and they are doing rather

well. Sterling is our currency as much as the rest of the UK's, for

all of the reasons I have given, Scotland's exports are ?100 billion,

the ?60 billion of trade from south to north, a currency union is in

both country's best interest, the failure of the UK Government so far

to enter into serious discussions about this, the campaign tactic of

burying their head in the sand and saying no is now coming home to

roost. I hope they see sense quickly, that we get the sterling

and the currency stablised and we can move forward with independence

to continue to trade properly between the countries and for the

whole of these islands around the world in sterling. I'm sorry to

interrupt, we have seen Gordon Brown come out today, the Chancellor of

the Exchequer yesterday talking about plans for details, offerings

of what would happen to a loyal Scotland, let as say. Would you say

that a no vote would still be a good day for Scotland? No, and I have to

say I thought the intervention today by Gordon Brown was bizarre. You

know a backbench Labour MP making promises he cannot possibly keep,

expecting a Tory Government to implement a Labour devolution plan,

the weakest of the three plans that the three unionists parties have

previously proposed and they are pretending some how bizarrely this

was the best thing we could possibly have. The only way to get the power

Scotland needs to save the NHS, to grow the economy, to create jobs is

to vote yes and the only reason, there is no devolution proposal on

the ballot paper is because people like Gordon Brown and David Cameron

couldn't agree 18 months ago so we have a yes-no vote and everybody now

knows the yes vote is the only way to deliver the power Scotland needs.

Thank you very much indeed. Douglas Alexander has been listening to

that. Isn't that the truth that if you had actually got the third

question, what used to be called Devo Max or some form of extended

powers for Scotland you wouldn't anybody this mess now? That wouldn't

satisfy the nationalist, the key question is in or out of the UK.

Today was the day reality interrupted the story the

nationalists are trying to say. We saw ?2 billion off the stocks of

Scottish companies, that is real people's pensions and the threat to

real people's jobs. That was on the basis of a single opinion poll.

These are not threats that are being made, that is the facts of what the

market today judged would be the potential consequences of a decision

to vote yes on September 18th. Was Gordon Brown part of that reality.

When on earth did you think he was going to come and debate, he was

never been an electoral Viagra for you? He secured a record number of

votes for Labour in 2010 in Scotland. And the fact is he speaks

with great authority, not just as a former Prime Minister, but someone

who has revoted his whole life to secure Home Rule within the UK in

Scotland. What he has done today is set out both a timetable for

legislation and an agenda for change. You knew he was going to do

that today? I certainly did. How long ago did you know it was coming?

As Gordon said, we have been pushing the British Government for weeks.

There were further conversations last week, directly involving

Gordon, so that there was maximum clarity for voters before September

18th. When you say pushing you mean you would like this to come a lot

earlier? We have said for months we think there is a case for bringing

the maximum degree of clarity to this debate. The three parties have

had their own proposals and published over a series of months.

Voters will know with certainty we will have within months a new

Scotland Act that will deliver, if I'm honest what most people in

Scotland want. That is more decisions taken across the road in

Scotland, but backed up by the strength and security of the UK.

This is a significant day in the campaign. Are people right to think

if they want less of a Tory Government, as you do, they should

vote yes? The last thing they should do is choose a currency union which

would involve no control effectively for Scotland over interest rates,

borrowing and levels of taxation that would be set by a foreign

Government over which we would have no democratic say. The truth is I'm

here in Scotland with two Governments I don't agree. I'm

unyield anything my opposition to the Conservatives, and I

fundamentally disagree with the Scottish nationalists. It is in the

character of a democracy that you don't always get the Government you

vote for. But a youngster voting for the first time on September 18th

will have lived three-quarters of her life under a UK Labour

Government. Some how the nationalist Government that you never get the

Government you want. The only circumstances in which you always

get the Government you want is a one-party state. I don't think

anybody is recommending that. Is it going to plan for you, is it going

on track? I believe we will win on September 18th, but I don't take it

for granted, we are not complacent. You weren't surprised by the poll at

the weekend? There is a lot of emotion swilling around in Scotland

today. I understand that, it is a decision of the head and heart. But

if people vote yes that is just about emotion? I think that of

course contributes to the fact that you can't walk along the street in

Scotland without people talking about the referendum. People are

making up their minds. The more people know about it and this is

what the yes campaign said, the more they know about it? I don't think

anyone will listen to the interview you conducted a few minutes ago and

say we know much, we don't know Plan B. We don't know how to protect the

National Health Service in Scotland when you are looking at an

additional ?6 billion of cuts, those are the numbers of the Institute of

Fiscal Studies. There are profound uncertainties, my sense is in the

closing days of the campaign the judgments people will make will not

just be national, in Scotland's interest, but also very personal.

And given we saw ?2 billion wiped off Scottish shares today, I think

that will weigh heavily on people as minds. You heard John Curtice who

stands as an independent in this argument, what he was saying is the

more you have pushed the currency issue the more it has rebounded on

the Better Together campaign. People don't trust you when you thrust that

in their face? You don't have to take my word for it, look at the

markets and the judgment in relation to Scottish shares. The fact is that

we do have an exceptionally good deal for Scotland with the prospect

of more powers across the road but with the strengths, stability and

the security of the United Kingdom behind us. Why is it in our

interests to shrink the whole market of Scotland from 64 million

consumers to five million. The blunt truth is none of the Better Together

campaign thought they would be in this position just ten days before

the vote. Do you think it could have been played better, with slightly

less condescension, and slightly more appeal. When people ask why

isn't it already Better Together, what is your response? We are ?1200

per head of population better off in terms of public expenditure each and

every year because we get a good deal from Scotland. Secondly how has

Scotland gone from being one of the poorest parts of the UK to one of

the richest over the last 30 years. We are a prosperous and successful

nation within a larger state of the United Kingdom. Of course I want to

see change, but change is coming. This Government has a mandate of

only eight months left to run. Even tonight we have had two further

opinion polls across the UK showing the prospect of a Labour Government

is very real and immediate. What we have learned today is not just that

change is coming to the institution, but I believe we will see with a

Labour Government the kind of changes that most people here in

Scotland want to see. Thank you very much. It is not quite time for

bitter recriminations but the blame game isn't that far off, Westminster

as a body shrugged off accusations of blind panic today as politicians

from the main parties offered plans of the details that would greet the

news of an independent Scotland. Is it dislike of anything Westminster

that is really driving the yes campaign? Our political editor

reports. 307 years of history but in just ten

days the union could unravel. Since the first opinion poll showing yes

could win it the last 36 hours of panic in Westminster have ensured

that even if it is a no vote Scotland is going to be a very

different place. There has been much fear and trembling in Westminster

today as politicians woke up to the fact that Scotland really could go

it alone. After jockeying behind the scenes it became Gordon Brown, the

former Labour Prime Minister who made a speech this evening, setting

out the timetable for the handover of powers to Scotland. Except many

in Westminster worry that even this won't cut it. That what the people

of Scotland want to hear about, is not some dry process, but talk of

fresh powers. Under Gordon Brown's timetable come Burns Night in

January 2015 there will be new powers for Scotland. But what will

the areas of agreement be? The former Prime Minister announced

today that he thinks Hollyrood should set a far larger chunk of

income tax to Scotland. These are not signed off by all at

Westminster. What could they all endorse? This evening's senior

sources have told me to expect movement on tax, public spending and

welfare. But income tax is the biggy. This is where the parties

currently stand, Scotland-Labour has suggested increase tax varying

powers, MSPs should be able to vary tax by up to 15p, they would be

allowed to restore the 50p rate for top earners, but if they wanted to

cut the 45p rate they would only be able to do so if they cut the basic

rate as well. Quite prescriptive. The Conservatives think there should

be full income tax powers. Making the Scottish Parliament accountable

for 40% of the money it spends. They think a Scottish Parliament could

decide on tax rates and bands. The Lib Dems too would hand a lot of

this over. The Liberal Democrats and Tories are quite close together on

income tax what about Labour. Ed Miliband's hitherto has been

reluctant to add anything on income tax, he's said not to want a race to

the bottom a low tax regime over the boreder in Scotland. But Labour has

been criticised in this campaign for not offering the Scottish people

enough on tax. So they may feel they need to make a bold gesture. One

cabinet minister indicated to me today it could be substantial

amounts of welfare handed over to Scotland. Treasury sources are also

highlighting that much of welfare policy is already devolved to

Northern Ireland. Scottish Labour has suggested housing benefit should

be devolved to Hollyrood, allowing Scotland to get rid of the so called

bedroom tax. The Tories believe other things could go north. On this

it looks like Labour and the Tories are not that far apart. My

understanding is there will be movement. Total panic stations from

the no campaign, they have gone behind in the polls and it is

because they don't have a big idea and they are hoping frankly, that

the people of Scotland are pretty stupid and didn't notice there was

no detail. We have seen no joint plan from the no parties, they have

been asked for it, where is their Plan A, and all we have is a

timetable, we have a long memory, we know being told to vote no for a

stronger parliament and we got 18 years of Margaret Thatcher. No thank

you. I want a Scotland that will govern itself, and I'm voting yes

and a lot of other people are. If there was a serious handover of

power north of the border there will have to be significant shifts down

south. One senior Conservative told me that the sight of separatist

Scottish MPs voting on issues that only affect the English would drive

UKIP wild. David Cameron, they said, will have to act. Senior figures in

Westminster are right now negotiating on a new powers. Trying

to find agreement in the months ahead of a general election usually

characterised by bitter disagreement. Not easy.

That was Here in Edinburgh is great place to talk about what those new

powers that the parliament, the Government could have. Lindsay

McIntosh is the Scottish political editor of the Times, she's here with

us now. And from London Fraser Nelson, the editor of the Spectator,

and is it your sense, Lindsay, that will be enough to sway people if

they come now or will it look like panic stations? I think it is very

important what Gordon Brown has done today, what we saw yesterday from

the Chancellor did look panicked. It allowed Alex Salmond to say, first

they tried to threaten us, then they tried to bribe us. But giving Gordon

Brown control of the situation, he's a man that has respect in Scotland

that perhaps has diminished elsewhere. He's been involved in

this debate for a long time. The speech that he gave tonight is very

similar to speeches he has made in the past. He's not coming to this

anew. And there is trust for him up here that some of the other party

leaders don't have. And you think that can work hand in glove with

what the Chancellor is offering, or are those two going to start seeming

to be offering divergent things? I think for Better Together's sake

what they need do is keep some of the Westminster politicians out of

this, and leave it to the Better Together campaign to hold things

together. As they have actually done reasonably admirably over the last

couple of years, given the diversity of views within that organisation.

Fraser, an interesting turn of events when Gordon Brown is getting

the praise now for bringing people to the table? Yes it is rather

strange. And of course he's dishing out blame as well, we heard him

saying how he would have done earlier if it wasn't for the beastly

Tories. I do think the unionists have a fundamental problem here.

Alex Salmond wanted originally for there to be questions on the ballot

paper, the status quo, separation and more powers for Scottish

politicians. David Cameron ruled it out, quite rightly. But now he's

saying he wants to put it back in, right at the last few days of the

campaign. So I'm really not sure this will be credible and nor am I

sure that the promise of control over housing benefit is going to

sway that many voters in Scotland. The time for doing this was six

months ago. That is when you could have advanced a devo max option as

it is called, and during that time there was more support for that an

independence. That has changed now. That ship has sailed. I can't quite

see that the tactical logic behind doing what they are doing now. There

was a tacit criticism, if you think this ship has sailed, that the

Tories weren't on board earlier, from Douglas Alexander when I spoke

to him a few moments ago, he said Gordon Brown wanted to get this

stuff out months ago? He did, the Tories were right to reject it then.

I'm not quite sure what they think will change by doing this now. If

you look at what has happened in the last two weeks, about 95% of Tories

in Scotland will vote no. It is the Labour camp who are defecting to the

yes campaign and so they are bringing in Gordon Brown and saying

look speak Labour language to them and see if you can bring them over.

It is an understandable gambit, but I don't think it is about this now.

It is not about adding a couple of constitutional levers up to Scottish

politician, it is about making an emotional case for the union. That

is what they should be doing in the last few days of this campaign. It

seems as if the unionists just seem unwilling in principle to talk about

Britain and the love of it in the same way that the nationalists talk

about Scotland. I mean there is plenty of passion for the union. I

think they have to do both. I would agree with Fraser there. The

constitutional settlement has to be dealt with. We need to talk about

more powers, fine. We need to do that on the one hand, but on the

other hand, the unionists need to make a positive case for remaining

within the UK. And that would be my main criticism of what they have

done so far. This then obviously opens the door to, as car win Jones

was tweeting to Wales and Northern Ireland, and then talking about more

devolved powers for everyone? Which is why they didn't want to have this

argument to start with. It is a separate issue as opposed to

Scottish independent. Scottish independence is a binary selle the,

and along the lines of devolution is a separate question. If you are in

the no camp or the Better Together camp you say no to independence and

then you still get these extra devolved powers. Do you think some

people will not want that at all? Yes, there will be quite a few

people who don't think Scotland has benefitted that much from

devolution. And they can't quite see why giving the Scottish politicians

more power will make Scotland better, given the powers they have

got haven't been a wild success in the last 15 years. But those guys

are not represented. They are in a minority, they are not represented.

Right now as we can understand it there are only two options in the

ballots paper, one is for complete separation and the other for a whole

lot more powers to the Scottish Parliament. The status quo option

seems to have been taken off the table.

Thank you both very much indeed. If there are jitters right now in

the Better Together campaign they are being felt tanningably by the

markets as we were discussing earlier. The pound plunged to its

lowest level against the dollar for ten months as the first poll emerged

that Scotland was are the to go it alone. The strongest card the Better

Together has played in its insistence threat is Scotland could

no longer keep the pound. Would it prove to be a bullying argument or a

persuasive one. Duncan Weldon, our economics correspondent is in the

City of London for us. Talk us through what happened today? Behind

me is the City, they have had dramatic day with huge moves.

Starting with the one you mentioned, the currency. Today the pound lost

1% of value against the US dollar and down a per cent against the

euro. 1% may not sound like a big move, but for a major international

currency that is a big move. It wasn't just the currency market that

saw the turbulence, the shares of big companies that sell to Scotland,

Lloyd's of Scotland, Babcot, they were down heavily as well. When I

talked to Stuart Hosier from the SNP, he said it wasn't a cram matk

move and happening grabbed -- dramatically, and happening

gradually, he blamed the Better Together for refusing to allow the

currency union? Well I think the thing is, this is definitely being

driven by uncertainty. There are so many unanswered questions, all very

important to the British and Scottish economies, what currency

will they use, what will happen with the debt. Doesn't exit make the rest

of the UK more likely to exit the EU. What happens to oil revenue, how

does it affect UK exports. These are all really big questions to which we

don't have answers. If there is one thing the markets don't like is

uncertainty, today we have a lot of uncertainty.

More tomorrow. More in the next few weeks, where do you think this is

going, briefly? Very briefly I think the next ten days are going to be

volatile. The markets, people over there will be watching all the polls

very closely. If we get a no vote the feeling of the people I have

been speaking to is you will quickly see Scottish share prices come up

and more value back in sterling. If we get a yes vote all the unanswered

questions become a lot more real. Both sides are currently working on

the assumption you have 18 months to sort it out after a yes vote. I

think there will be an awful lot of market pressure to get an answer

much quicker er, if we get a yes vote.

What about those the other side of the border in this debate, the

voices that don't get a vote, but may feel passionately about the

question that is being asked. A year ago we hosted a debate on the union

bridge that straddles the Tweed. It was a moment the yes campaign

emerged as winners. We returned to the very spot and sent this report.

Obviously the debate about Scottish independence has mainly focussed on

the people who live behind me in Scotland. But what of the other

participants in this 300-year-old marriage. What does it mean for the

people who live over there? For nearly 200 years the union bridge

over the River Tweed has witnessed a changed world and the UK. A year ago

it was the site of Newsnight's live debate on the future of Scotland. It

has, shall we say, had much water under the bridge since then. For the

entirety of the referendum campaign there has been an assumption this

side of the Scottish border that voters here don't really need to

worry too much about what's going on over there. Afterall, the poll

suggests that independence was going to be comfortably defeated. Now

though some polls suggest a different picture. So what are

voters over here thinking now? Barry and Nantesy Smith are on holiday

here from Staffordshire. The changing polls worry them. We go on

holiday to Scotland regularly, this is the third or fourth time in the

last three or four years, we love going north of the border. But it

doesn't feel like we are going abroad. Maybe in future it will do.

As an English person I'm proud to be British. I just feel that we are the

British Isles and we're better together, better united together

than going our separate ways, we could be and are stronger together.

The boreder between England and Scotland has many reminders of

centuries of conflict. On the Berwick ramparts, build to protect

the town from attacking Scots I get Phil Johnson, he's the editor of two

newspapers, the Berwickshire News for Scottish reader and the Berwick

Advertiser for English readers. Many identify themselves with the town

rather than Scottish or English. If there was an international border of

course things would change, but perhaps not culturally. There would

still be cross-border links remaining the same. A lot might

depend on what Scottish independence looks like. Walking through Berwick

you get the impression of a town that looks in two directions

overlapping cultural identities common.

What would it mean for you as a west Highland terrier do you think?

Anything? Anything in particular? (Barks) if Scotland were another

country, a separate foreign country, different state, would that bother

you? They just do what they want to do any way. There is a Scottish

souvenir shop in England. English and Scottish tourists it seems have

different tastes. You have to do different orders because the

Scottish people generally, even though they are coming to England

won't take anything with an English flag. Really, some of them will, but

a lot of them won't touch anything with an English flag. English people

even though not quite in Scotland yet are happy to take the Scottish

flag. That is really interesting? Just some people just won't touch

anything with an English flag. The town behind me has changed hands

between England and Scotland 13-times over the course of its

history. Talking to people today about the prospect of further

constitutional upheaval, the emotions I have most encountered are

uncertainty about the future and sadness. This union chain bridge

spans Britain's life as great power. Opened just five years after the

Battle of Waterloo, it stood during the golden age of Britishness. It

may begin its next chapter brackets by border posts. The union gone and

the chain broken. The Scottish historian Tom Devine is

here, with Miral Somerset-Webb editor of Money Week who lives in

Edinburgh. We have a passionate unionist from Boston joining us too.

Thank you very much for joining us. Tom if it is a yes next week will

you be happy? Mixed feelings obviously. I have come out in

support of the yes campaign, reluctantly if you will. But I'm

conscious of the fact that would only be the

conscious of the fact that would process. First of all there would be

the post-referendum discussion, the management of the process. And then

you know given the long sent trees of connection there will then be

challenges, major challenges ahead for the, if you like the new

Scottish nation. And of course there is also the sense of leaving a very

good and old friend, in one way. But I hope that what's referred to as

the social union, if you like, the sociocultural union, will in the

long run be strengthened, because one of the reasons I have come to

this conclusion is that the union itself is no longer fit for purpose,

it is a destablising factor within the British Isles. It is interesting

that you say leaving a good and old friend, a lot of people imagining it

as a turning their backs on something they dislike. Let me ask

you, as a Brit, living in Scotland, do you think it would be odd to be

here after a yes vote? Yeah, I think it would be very odd indeed. When I

first moved to Scotland it never occurred to me that there was a

group of people who felt there was intense difference between the

English and Scottish and Britain was divided T would be very strange to

feel one lives on the same island but in a different country. Have you

been treated like that as the you have been living, clearly you have

chosen to make Scotland your home, so you don't feel like you are not

welcome here? Generally not, it is not until very recently that there

has begun to feel a difference between people perceived as English

and people certificate received as Scottish -- perceived as Scottish, I

find it strange and unfortunately. Neal sorry we can't see, do you

believe it is driven by a nationalism or a sense of coming of

age. What do you think is behind this? I think it is driven by a kind

of collective madness from the advantage points of the millions of

Scots who don't live in Scotland. And we vastly outnumber those who

do. This is just astonishing to behold. I live in the United States,

but still feel myself every inch a Scotsman. But this is a bit like

Colorado seeking its independence, or if you want a European version it

is a little bit as if a member of the United Kingdom is opting to

become Slovakia, because that is just how important Scotland will be

in the world if it takes this extraordinary and economically

suicidal step. I think from the advantage point of an economic

historian this is obviously going to be a disastrous move, we are just

seeing how big a disaster it will be. It is worth saying how munda

Chris, ous the Scottish nationalists have been throughout the campaign

talking about the benefits to Scotland, there is no benefits,

Scotland will lose heavily with this divorce, I'm sure Tom must feel that

and why he feels regret about what is happening. This will be, make no

mistake a disaster, the sad thing is we have made the case so negatively

when there is clearly a positive case to be made for the United

Kingdom. As Fraser Nelson said earlier in the programme. The last

statement made I can agree with. If this happens in the yes sense, then

later historians will to a large extent I think blame the no campaign

for its inadequacies, and blame Cameron for not agreeing to a

three-part referendum. If you go back to Neal Ferguson, I hope that

he won't mind me reminding him as a Scottish expatriot that he was the

author of the famous press statement a number of years ago calling my

country the Belarus of the west. And saying that it should be wound up.

That is exactly what... Hold on a second. That is exactly what you

will be voting for. I know that Harvard is place of civilised gent

tillity, and I know you will allow me to speak. What I'm saying to you

is this, once argued that there was, that this nation was inadequate and

that in fact its assets should be offloaded and be recalled north

Britain, I don't think you can speak impartially given that background

which I know you can't indicate you didn't say it. You can't talk

impartially about this. If I may I'm being entirely impartial, if I may

answer, that I'm being entirely impartial, you are voting to become

Belarus, this won't turn Scotland into some fancy Scandinavian place,

it will be an impoverished back water. I admire some of your

writings, not all. But what you have just said is blatant nonsense. Let

me bring you in. You get a real sense of the passions that are

clearly going to be toe foremost right now -- to be at the foremost

right now. Is that civil campaign, have you felt intimidated one way or

another? If you spend too much time on Twitter you almost feel

uncivilised and threatened. Generally a civilised debate. At

each end you get people who get very angry about things. Because you have

extremists at either end of the debate it has made people feel there

is something of a difference between the Scottish and everybody else.

When there genuinely isn't. If you look at all the survey, the social

attitude surveys for Britons and Scotland, you find that the

attitudes of the Scottish and British on almost everything are

verging on identical, there is no difference between us culturally and

socially it is exaggerated by the campaigns. This is extraordinary,

there are major differences in political culture and voting

patterns between the two countries, and there have been since the 1980s.

This is in no way an anti-English campaign, the Scots applauded the

English team when they entered the arena at Celtic park at the

beginning of the Commonwealth Games, this is an issue with governance and

self-determination. I said what it was doing was exaggerating

differences between peoples that don't exist which is a very

different thing. There are a couple of key points there, do you think

that relations between the Scots and, if you like, the English would

improve after this, do you think there is a chance, or do you think

this is the start of a much bigger sense of federalism for the whole of

the UK now? That's an easy question to answer historically, because when

Scotland was an independent state its relations with England were

extremely bad. As your earlier report mentioned the border between

the two countries was more or less a permanent warzone, I won't say that

will happen any time stone. The acrimony will only get worse, when

we get down to the nitty gritty, if there is a yes vote of who exactly

will bear the burden of the national debt and where the oil revenues will

go. This will get much uglier than it is. The idea that Tom says we

will some how get on better after a divorced suggests he has never been

through a divorce. Thank you all very much indeed. Now just before we

go we can show you the front page of tomorrow's Times. This is a TNS poll

and excluding the "don't noes" those figures rest at exactly 50% for the

yes campaign, 50% clearly for the Better Together. That does not

include the "don't knows" but that is the poll leading the Times

tomorrow, a TNS poll which tells you at the moment it is too close to

call. That is it from all of us from here, from Edinburgh tonight there

are nine days left until polling day, thank you for joining us, good

night from all of us here. Good evening, it will be chilly in

the morning with a few patches of mist and fog, the fog should lift

pretty quickly through the morning and then we are into a decent day

with light