08/09/2014 Newsnight


08/09/2014

The programme comes live from Edinburgh as the polls narrow on the independence question. With Emily Maitlis.


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Transcript


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Tonight we're live in Edinburgh, still part of the United Kingdom,

:00:00.:00:09.

but a vote next week to change all that for good. With ten days to go

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the yes campaign has electrified the race. What can the unionists come up

:00:14.:00:18.

with to win hearts now? These are big changes, that we are proposing,

:00:19.:00:25.

to strengthen the Scottish Parliament but at the same time to

:00:26.:00:31.

stay as part of the United Kingdom. The shivers are running from head to

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foot through Westminster's political establishment, will they be looking

:00:36.:00:38.

at a collective failure to save 300 years of history. Polling God John

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Curtice takes us through tonight's numbers and... Obviously the debate

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about Scottish independence has focussed on the people behind me who

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live in Scotland. What about the other participants in the

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300-year-old marriage, what does it mean for the people who live over

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there. The Scottish shadow secretary may soon have a country in his own

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portfolio, how does he feel? Good evening from Edinburgh, not

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since hamlet's agony over to be or not to be has such a deceptively

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simple question proved so difficult to answer. Half of Scotland want to

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be an independent country and the other half don't. In race that

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seemed to be happily chugging along for 18 months and the final paces

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with numbers that appear to be too close to call have been electrified,

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leaving a country split down the middle. Today it was the turn of a

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former British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, to set the agenda, a

:01:43.:01:46.

man who some would say declared his own independence from Westminster

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some four years ago. Cutting it fine, after more than 800

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days of campaigning, tonight a new promise for the union has arrived. A

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timetable for Gordon Brown for more powers over tax and welfare and

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soon. I say that this represents the new union of the 21st century. It is

:02:09.:02:12.

essentially Home Rule for Scotland within the United Kingdom. It is as

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close to federalism as you can be in a country where 85% of the

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population is from one-nation. It is extensive social and economic

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devolution, that ends the accusation that we're a centralist, unitary

:02:28.:02:33.

uniform state. There is ten days late and

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uniform state. There is ten days comes out with promises? I hate to

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say this I wrote a few months ago we should set a timetable and be clear

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about how quickly we could deliver the proposals. Who has been holding

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it back? I made the proposal to the Conservatives and said this was the

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right thing to do. I hope they will now come round to the view this is

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the right thing to do. One source in the no campaign describes what is

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happening as horrific in streets, where in the past, Labour hardly had

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to try, voters are starting to say yes. With just ten days to go, there

:03:01.:03:06.

is evidence the SNP is starting to do what they had always hoped to and

:03:07.:03:11.

had to achieve. Peel off traditional solid Labour support from places

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like this and move those voters towards backing independence. It is

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not just a frenzy caused by one poll, but a real conviction, there

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is a chance for independence. We shouldn't be having our imperialist

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masters telling us what to do. Imperialists masters? Well we were

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all part of the empire and Scotland contributed at one

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all part of the empire and Scotland seen the light and getting away from

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it. Mitch Darling Dearly McAllister -- Alastair darling is too keen to

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hang on. You are having a pop. You have walked past the yes campaign

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and said "scary" why? A lot of people are jumping on the yes

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bandwagon without considering the final consequences. The argument at

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the heart of the campaign is not that independence is a panacea, it

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puts us in charge of our own resources not just what Westminster

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allows us, we take decisions about our own priorities.

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If the pound slips to an all time low, what happens when you win?

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Let's be calm, during political campaigns on budget days it is not

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unusual to see the value of the pound fluctuate. Much of the

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uncertainty flows from the UK's Government irrational refusal to

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discuss about a currency union. Why is it irrational? It would be

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against the interests of Scotland but the rest of the UK in terms of

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transaction costs and losing the value of Scottish exports from the

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balance of payments now. Why would a rational UK Government turn its back

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on the vast contribution of Scottish exports to the balance of payments

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putting its trade deficit. It is Scotland turning its back on the

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rest of the UK not the rest of the UK turning its back on Scotland? We

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are not turning our back on anybody, we will be working with friends

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across the islands but on the basis of equality. It is not just about a

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country with more of its own control, for some voters it is about

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escape. We will be laughing at you... . Again and again the no

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campaign are attacked for being proto-Tories. Exiting is a way of

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moving away from Conservatives for good. Get the Tories out. What it

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says is "to end Tory rule forever? " I voted against devolution in 1979,

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I thought we were the one country. Margaret Thatcher came along and

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proved we are not. Should people in 2014 be voting to get rid of

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something that you believe Margaret Thatcher created? That is not

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exactly looking to the future? Every positive has a negative, we are

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voting for democracy, that is the most important thing. It will be a

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total disaster for Scotland. I strongly believe that we are all

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very much better together. We are intermarried, 400,000 people from

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the rest of the UK live and work in Scotland. 800,000 people live and

:06:13.:06:26.

work in the UK from Scotland. Absolutely no, I will move to

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England. You feel as passionately as that? As passionately. Why? Because

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if you have got any money we're going to be taxed to the hilt.

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Gordon Brown is determined with his plan to turn yeses to no. But it

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won't be easy. Whatever the unionists put forward in these last

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ten days it might struggle to get through. The yes campaign isn't just

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putting forward an argument for independence, but it is honing in on

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a distrust, a dislike, a disillusionment with Westminster.

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And that's starting to work. Unhappy unionists claim their private

:07:04.:07:07.

numbers still hold up. Those who would leave the UK and start anew

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may have the energy, but yes still feels like maybe.

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That was We will talk more about that disillusionment in a moment.

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First to the weekend, and the YouGov poll put the yes campaign ahead for

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the first time. An independent Scotland now seems more like a

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realistic possibility. The psephologist John Curtice has put

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together a poll of polls looking at how what Scotland thinks has changed

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over the past year. Based on the average of six key polls at the

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beginning of the year, the no vote was on a lead of 25 points. Now

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according to YouGov those supporting independence are now at 51%, leaving

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the no vote lagging behind at 49%. Let's join Professor Curtice right

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now. And there is a new poll that is coming out tonight. I know that is

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embargoed until midnight. But some of the papers are looking at it.

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Broadly, John, does that follow the same thrust as the one this weekend?

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Well, at the weekend we had two opinion poll, one from YouGov

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suggesting a dramatic swing putting yes ahead, but Panelbase putting not

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detecting a swing. It looks from what I have seen that maybe when the

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poll comes out at midnight we will be confirmed in the view that

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something has indeed changed and this race looks an awful lot closer.

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Where you Where do you feel it is changing? Is it to do with age,

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gender-based The truth is one group seems to be resistant to the idea of

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an independent Scotland and remains as unconvinced of the idea of it

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that is the over 60s and the over 65s. The two groups amongst whom

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there is progress being made, that is more working-class less well off

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voters who have always been inclined to say that they were more willing

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to vote yes, they seem to have swung more strongly in numbers to yes. And

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there is some evidence that the yes side have overcome the gender gap,

:09:20.:09:23.

if it was only men voting the yes vote would have it. Certainly some

:09:24.:09:27.

of the target groups for the yes side, younger voters, working-class

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voters and women they seem to have made progress under. Do the polls

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seem to suggest what is driving the change now. I mean when more people

:09:37.:09:44.

appear to be saying yes, or the undecides are no longer undecided

:09:45.:09:47.

what is pushing them? The first thing that is pushing them is the

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issue we have always known is central to whether or not someone is

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likely to be a yes or no voter which is whether or not they think that

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independence will be good or bad for Scotland's economy, that, which

:09:59.:10:02.

according to YouGov was something where as recently as June we almost

:10:03.:10:07.

had twice as many people who said they were pessimistic about the

:10:08.:10:10.

economic consequences were optimistic, those two groups are now

:10:11.:10:15.

roughly equal in size. There has been a dramatic increase in

:10:16.:10:19.

optimisim that independence would make Scotland better, that is a

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message that has got through to voters who are currently not

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terribly better off and are looking for a better tomorrow. You may ask

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how is that possible given that during recent weeks one of the key

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messages from the no side is Alex Salmond doesn't have a plan for the

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currency and you can't keep the pound, it will all be disaster. The

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answer seems to be that the argument on the currency has been overegged

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by the no side. And that what was already true, that a significant

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proportion of Scotland's population thought they were bluffing, that

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proportion has increased considerably by YouGov it is

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actually only half do so. This raises a question as to whether or

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not the no side have a credibility problem that voters have stopped

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believing the claims about the consequences of the division that

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they are trying to get across. We have the Treasury spokesman with

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us in London tonight. If it comes down to the economy, what are we to

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make of the pound today at its lowest rate for some ten months

:11:29.:11:33.

against the dollar, over fears that yes will win? Over the last year the

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pound has fallen around 1% a day over 16 occasions against the euro,

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on three occasions against the dollar. So what we are seeing isn't

:11:43.:11:47.

actually that unusual. I think it is less to do with Scottish

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independence and more to do with the markets being rather spooked by the

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lack of preparedness of the UK Government, particularly their

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strange idiotic refusal even to negotiate on a currency union which

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has Nicola Sturgeon said earlier in the programme is clearly in the best

:12:05.:12:07.

interest to Scotland and the rest of the UK. Right so when Alex Salmond

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during the debate there were three Plan Bs but refused to explain what

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would happen without the pound, can you fill in the gaps? What the First

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Minister all along has said is we have looked at every single one of

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the options and we know and inAlastair Darling confirmed it, the

:12:33.:12:35.

formal currency union that the commission proposed is the best

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option. The sterling zone and sterling the currency needs the ?100

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billion of Scottish exports receipted in sterling. It needs that

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desperately. It also is the ?60 billion fair trade from England into

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Scotland needs to avoid transaction cost that is could destroy hundreds

:12:53.:12:57.

of thousands of English jobs, there are many reasons why currency union

:12:58.:13:04.

makes sense. When you have eminent economists like Professor Krugman

:13:05.:13:06.

today writing there is no way you can join a currency union when the

:13:07.:13:10.

country has refused, not to have control of your own currency, he

:13:11.:13:15.

says, is nightmarish. You are just going to ignore that? I'm not going

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to ignore it, I will always listen to what the professor says, but one

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looks at Germany, that uses a shared currency and they are doing rather

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well. Sterling is our currency as much as the rest of the UK's, for

:13:27.:13:32.

all of the reasons I have given, Scotland's exports are ?100 billion,

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the ?60 billion of trade from south to north, a currency union is in

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both country's best interest, the failure of the UK Government so far

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to enter into serious discussions about this, the campaign tactic of

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burying their head in the sand and saying no is now coming home to

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roost. I hope they see sense quickly, that we get the sterling

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and the currency stablised and we can move forward with independence

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to continue to trade properly between the countries and for the

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whole of these islands around the world in sterling. I'm sorry to

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interrupt, we have seen Gordon Brown come out today, the Chancellor of

:14:10.:14:13.

the Exchequer yesterday talking about plans for details, offerings

:14:14.:14:18.

of what would happen to a loyal Scotland, let as say. Would you say

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that a no vote would still be a good day for Scotland? No, and I have to

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say I thought the intervention today by Gordon Brown was bizarre. You

:14:30.:14:35.

know a backbench Labour MP making promises he cannot possibly keep,

:14:36.:14:39.

expecting a Tory Government to implement a Labour devolution plan,

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the weakest of the three plans that the three unionists parties have

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previously proposed and they are pretending some how bizarrely this

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was the best thing we could possibly have. The only way to get the power

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Scotland needs to save the NHS, to grow the economy, to create jobs is

:14:58.:15:01.

to vote yes and the only reason, there is no devolution proposal on

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the ballot paper is because people like Gordon Brown and David Cameron

:15:05.:15:10.

couldn't agree 18 months ago so we have a yes-no vote and everybody now

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knows the yes vote is the only way to deliver the power Scotland needs.

:15:15.:15:23.

Thank you very much indeed. Douglas Alexander has been listening to

:15:24.:15:27.

that. Isn't that the truth that if you had actually got the third

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question, what used to be called Devo Max or some form of extended

:15:34.:15:38.

powers for Scotland you wouldn't anybody this mess now? That wouldn't

:15:39.:15:43.

satisfy the nationalist, the key question is in or out of the UK.

:15:44.:15:50.

Today was the day reality interrupted the story the

:15:51.:15:53.

nationalists are trying to say. We saw ?2 billion off the stocks of

:15:54.:15:57.

Scottish companies, that is real people's pensions and the threat to

:15:58.:16:00.

real people's jobs. That was on the basis of a single opinion poll.

:16:01.:16:04.

These are not threats that are being made, that is the facts of what the

:16:05.:16:09.

market today judged would be the potential consequences of a decision

:16:10.:16:11.

to vote yes on September 18th. Was Gordon Brown part of that reality.

:16:12.:16:16.

When on earth did you think he was going to come and debate, he was

:16:17.:16:20.

never been an electoral Viagra for you? He secured a record number of

:16:21.:16:24.

votes for Labour in 2010 in Scotland. And the fact is he speaks

:16:25.:16:28.

with great authority, not just as a former Prime Minister, but someone

:16:29.:16:33.

who has revoted his whole life to secure Home Rule within the UK in

:16:34.:16:36.

Scotland. What he has done today is set out both a timetable for

:16:37.:16:40.

legislation and an agenda for change. You knew he was going to do

:16:41.:16:44.

that today? I certainly did. How long ago did you know it was coming?

:16:45.:16:48.

As Gordon said, we have been pushing the British Government for weeks.

:16:49.:16:51.

There were further conversations last week, directly involving

:16:52.:16:56.

Gordon, so that there was maximum clarity for voters before September

:16:57.:16:59.

18th. When you say pushing you mean you would like this to come a lot

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earlier? We have said for months we think there is a case for bringing

:17:03.:17:06.

the maximum degree of clarity to this debate. The three parties have

:17:07.:17:10.

had their own proposals and published over a series of months.

:17:11.:17:13.

Voters will know with certainty we will have within months a new

:17:14.:17:17.

Scotland Act that will deliver, if I'm honest what most people in

:17:18.:17:23.

Scotland want. That is more decisions taken across the road in

:17:24.:17:28.

Scotland, but backed up by the strength and security of the UK.

:17:29.:17:32.

This is a significant day in the campaign. Are people right to think

:17:33.:17:37.

if they want less of a Tory Government, as you do, they should

:17:38.:17:41.

vote yes? The last thing they should do is choose a currency union which

:17:42.:17:46.

would involve no control effectively for Scotland over interest rates,

:17:47.:17:49.

borrowing and levels of taxation that would be set by a foreign

:17:50.:17:51.

Government over which we would have no democratic say. The truth is I'm

:17:52.:17:55.

here in Scotland with two Governments I don't agree. I'm

:17:56.:17:58.

unyield anything my opposition to the Conservatives, and I

:17:59.:18:00.

fundamentally disagree with the Scottish nationalists. It is in the

:18:01.:18:03.

character of a democracy that you don't always get the Government you

:18:04.:18:08.

vote for. But a youngster voting for the first time on September 18th

:18:09.:18:11.

will have lived three-quarters of her life under a UK Labour

:18:12.:18:14.

Government. Some how the nationalist Government that you never get the

:18:15.:18:16.

Government you want. The only circumstances in which you always

:18:17.:18:19.

get the Government you want is a one-party state. I don't think

:18:20.:18:23.

anybody is recommending that. Is it going to plan for you, is it going

:18:24.:18:28.

on track? I believe we will win on September 18th, but I don't take it

:18:29.:18:32.

for granted, we are not complacent. You weren't surprised by the poll at

:18:33.:18:35.

the weekend? There is a lot of emotion swilling around in Scotland

:18:36.:18:38.

today. I understand that, it is a decision of the head and heart. But

:18:39.:18:42.

if people vote yes that is just about emotion? I think that of

:18:43.:18:46.

course contributes to the fact that you can't walk along the street in

:18:47.:18:49.

Scotland without people talking about the referendum. People are

:18:50.:18:53.

making up their minds. The more people know about it and this is

:18:54.:18:56.

what the yes campaign said, the more they know about it? I don't think

:18:57.:19:02.

anyone will listen to the interview you conducted a few minutes ago and

:19:03.:19:06.

say we know much, we don't know Plan B. We don't know how to protect the

:19:07.:19:10.

National Health Service in Scotland when you are looking at an

:19:11.:19:16.

additional ?6 billion of cuts, those are the numbers of the Institute of

:19:17.:19:21.

Fiscal Studies. There are profound uncertainties, my sense is in the

:19:22.:19:24.

closing days of the campaign the judgments people will make will not

:19:25.:19:27.

just be national, in Scotland's interest, but also very personal.

:19:28.:19:31.

And given we saw ?2 billion wiped off Scottish shares today, I think

:19:32.:19:34.

that will weigh heavily on people as minds. You heard John Curtice who

:19:35.:19:38.

stands as an independent in this argument, what he was saying is the

:19:39.:19:41.

more you have pushed the currency issue the more it has rebounded on

:19:42.:19:47.

the Better Together campaign. People don't trust you when you thrust that

:19:48.:19:51.

in their face? You don't have to take my word for it, look at the

:19:52.:19:54.

markets and the judgment in relation to Scottish shares. The fact is that

:19:55.:19:58.

we do have an exceptionally good deal for Scotland with the prospect

:19:59.:20:03.

of more powers across the road but with the strengths, stability and

:20:04.:20:06.

the security of the United Kingdom behind us. Why is it in our

:20:07.:20:11.

interests to shrink the whole market of Scotland from 64 million

:20:12.:20:15.

consumers to five million. The blunt truth is none of the Better Together

:20:16.:20:18.

campaign thought they would be in this position just ten days before

:20:19.:20:22.

the vote. Do you think it could have been played better, with slightly

:20:23.:20:29.

less condescension, and slightly more appeal. When people ask why

:20:30.:20:32.

isn't it already Better Together, what is your response? We are ?1200

:20:33.:20:37.

per head of population better off in terms of public expenditure each and

:20:38.:20:40.

every year because we get a good deal from Scotland. Secondly how has

:20:41.:20:45.

Scotland gone from being one of the poorest parts of the UK to one of

:20:46.:20:49.

the richest over the last 30 years. We are a prosperous and successful

:20:50.:20:52.

nation within a larger state of the United Kingdom. Of course I want to

:20:53.:20:56.

see change, but change is coming. This Government has a mandate of

:20:57.:20:59.

only eight months left to run. Even tonight we have had two further

:21:00.:21:03.

opinion polls across the UK showing the prospect of a Labour Government

:21:04.:21:05.

is very real and immediate. What we have learned today is not just that

:21:06.:21:08.

change is coming to the institution, but I believe we will see with a

:21:09.:21:11.

Labour Government the kind of changes that most people here in

:21:12.:21:14.

Scotland want to see. Thank you very much. It is not quite time for

:21:15.:21:20.

bitter recriminations but the blame game isn't that far off, Westminster

:21:21.:21:25.

as a body shrugged off accusations of blind panic today as politicians

:21:26.:21:31.

from the main parties offered plans of the details that would greet the

:21:32.:21:36.

news of an independent Scotland. Is it dislike of anything Westminster

:21:37.:21:39.

that is really driving the yes campaign? Our political editor

:21:40.:21:48.

reports. 307 years of history but in just ten

:21:49.:21:53.

days the union could unravel. Since the first opinion poll showing yes

:21:54.:21:56.

could win it the last 36 hours of panic in Westminster have ensured

:21:57.:21:59.

that even if it is a no vote Scotland is going to be a very

:22:00.:22:04.

different place. There has been much fear and trembling in Westminster

:22:05.:22:07.

today as politicians woke up to the fact that Scotland really could go

:22:08.:22:12.

it alone. After jockeying behind the scenes it became Gordon Brown, the

:22:13.:22:14.

former Labour Prime Minister who made a speech this evening, setting

:22:15.:22:18.

out the timetable for the handover of powers to Scotland. Except many

:22:19.:22:23.

in Westminster worry that even this won't cut it. That what the people

:22:24.:22:28.

of Scotland want to hear about, is not some dry process, but talk of

:22:29.:22:33.

fresh powers. Under Gordon Brown's timetable come Burns Night in

:22:34.:22:37.

January 2015 there will be new powers for Scotland. But what will

:22:38.:22:40.

the areas of agreement be? The former Prime Minister announced

:22:41.:22:45.

today that he thinks Hollyrood should set a far larger chunk of

:22:46.:22:49.

income tax to Scotland. These are not signed off by all at

:22:50.:22:54.

Westminster. What could they all endorse? This evening's senior

:22:55.:22:58.

sources have told me to expect movement on tax, public spending and

:22:59.:23:02.

welfare. But income tax is the biggy. This is where the parties

:23:03.:23:08.

currently stand, Scotland-Labour has suggested increase tax varying

:23:09.:23:13.

powers, MSPs should be able to vary tax by up to 15p, they would be

:23:14.:23:17.

allowed to restore the 50p rate for top earners, but if they wanted to

:23:18.:23:21.

cut the 45p rate they would only be able to do so if they cut the basic

:23:22.:23:26.

rate as well. Quite prescriptive. The Conservatives think there should

:23:27.:23:30.

be full income tax powers. Making the Scottish Parliament accountable

:23:31.:23:34.

for 40% of the money it spends. They think a Scottish Parliament could

:23:35.:23:38.

decide on tax rates and bands. The Lib Dems too would hand a lot of

:23:39.:23:43.

this over. The Liberal Democrats and Tories are quite close together on

:23:44.:23:47.

income tax what about Labour. Ed Miliband's hitherto has been

:23:48.:23:50.

reluctant to add anything on income tax, he's said not to want a race to

:23:51.:23:54.

the bottom a low tax regime over the boreder in Scotland. But Labour has

:23:55.:23:58.

been criticised in this campaign for not offering the Scottish people

:23:59.:24:02.

enough on tax. So they may feel they need to make a bold gesture. One

:24:03.:24:10.

cabinet minister indicated to me today it could be substantial

:24:11.:24:14.

amounts of welfare handed over to Scotland. Treasury sources are also

:24:15.:24:18.

highlighting that much of welfare policy is already devolved to

:24:19.:24:22.

Northern Ireland. Scottish Labour has suggested housing benefit should

:24:23.:24:29.

be devolved to Hollyrood, allowing Scotland to get rid of the so called

:24:30.:24:37.

bedroom tax. The Tories believe other things could go north. On this

:24:38.:24:41.

it looks like Labour and the Tories are not that far apart. My

:24:42.:24:44.

understanding is there will be movement. Total panic stations from

:24:45.:24:48.

the no campaign, they have gone behind in the polls and it is

:24:49.:24:52.

because they don't have a big idea and they are hoping frankly, that

:24:53.:24:56.

the people of Scotland are pretty stupid and didn't notice there was

:24:57.:25:00.

no detail. We have seen no joint plan from the no parties, they have

:25:01.:25:05.

been asked for it, where is their Plan A, and all we have is a

:25:06.:25:10.

timetable, we have a long memory, we know being told to vote no for a

:25:11.:25:14.

stronger parliament and we got 18 years of Margaret Thatcher. No thank

:25:15.:25:18.

you. I want a Scotland that will govern itself, and I'm voting yes

:25:19.:25:22.

and a lot of other people are. If there was a serious handover of

:25:23.:25:25.

power north of the border there will have to be significant shifts down

:25:26.:25:28.

south. One senior Conservative told me that the sight of separatist

:25:29.:25:33.

Scottish MPs voting on issues that only affect the English would drive

:25:34.:25:37.

UKIP wild. David Cameron, they said, will have to act. Senior figures in

:25:38.:25:43.

Westminster are right now negotiating on a new powers. Trying

:25:44.:25:46.

to find agreement in the months ahead of a general election usually

:25:47.:25:49.

characterised by bitter disagreement. Not easy.

:25:50.:25:58.

That was Here in Edinburgh is great place to talk about what those new

:25:59.:26:02.

powers that the parliament, the Government could have. Lindsay

:26:03.:26:05.

McIntosh is the Scottish political editor of the Times, she's here with

:26:06.:26:09.

us now. And from London Fraser Nelson, the editor of the Spectator,

:26:10.:26:13.

and is it your sense, Lindsay, that will be enough to sway people if

:26:14.:26:18.

they come now or will it look like panic stations? I think it is very

:26:19.:26:21.

important what Gordon Brown has done today, what we saw yesterday from

:26:22.:26:25.

the Chancellor did look panicked. It allowed Alex Salmond to say, first

:26:26.:26:28.

they tried to threaten us, then they tried to bribe us. But giving Gordon

:26:29.:26:32.

Brown control of the situation, he's a man that has respect in Scotland

:26:33.:26:36.

that perhaps has diminished elsewhere. He's been involved in

:26:37.:26:39.

this debate for a long time. The speech that he gave tonight is very

:26:40.:26:42.

similar to speeches he has made in the past. He's not coming to this

:26:43.:26:46.

anew. And there is trust for him up here that some of the other party

:26:47.:26:50.

leaders don't have. And you think that can work hand in glove with

:26:51.:26:53.

what the Chancellor is offering, or are those two going to start seeming

:26:54.:26:58.

to be offering divergent things? I think for Better Together's sake

:26:59.:27:01.

what they need do is keep some of the Westminster politicians out of

:27:02.:27:04.

this, and leave it to the Better Together campaign to hold things

:27:05.:27:08.

together. As they have actually done reasonably admirably over the last

:27:09.:27:11.

couple of years, given the diversity of views within that organisation.

:27:12.:27:16.

Fraser, an interesting turn of events when Gordon Brown is getting

:27:17.:27:20.

the praise now for bringing people to the table? Yes it is rather

:27:21.:27:24.

strange. And of course he's dishing out blame as well, we heard him

:27:25.:27:28.

saying how he would have done earlier if it wasn't for the beastly

:27:29.:27:33.

Tories. I do think the unionists have a fundamental problem here.

:27:34.:27:37.

Alex Salmond wanted originally for there to be questions on the ballot

:27:38.:27:41.

paper, the status quo, separation and more powers for Scottish

:27:42.:27:44.

politicians. David Cameron ruled it out, quite rightly. But now he's

:27:45.:27:47.

saying he wants to put it back in, right at the last few days of the

:27:48.:27:50.

campaign. So I'm really not sure this will be credible and nor am I

:27:51.:27:57.

sure that the promise of control over housing benefit is going to

:27:58.:28:00.

sway that many voters in Scotland. The time for doing this was six

:28:01.:28:05.

months ago. That is when you could have advanced a devo max option as

:28:06.:28:09.

it is called, and during that time there was more support for that an

:28:10.:28:12.

independence. That has changed now. That ship has sailed. I can't quite

:28:13.:28:18.

see that the tactical logic behind doing what they are doing now. There

:28:19.:28:24.

was a tacit criticism, if you think this ship has sailed, that the

:28:25.:28:27.

Tories weren't on board earlier, from Douglas Alexander when I spoke

:28:28.:28:30.

to him a few moments ago, he said Gordon Brown wanted to get this

:28:31.:28:35.

stuff out months ago? He did, the Tories were right to reject it then.

:28:36.:28:39.

I'm not quite sure what they think will change by doing this now. If

:28:40.:28:43.

you look at what has happened in the last two weeks, about 95% of Tories

:28:44.:28:51.

in Scotland will vote no. It is the Labour camp who are defecting to the

:28:52.:28:55.

yes campaign and so they are bringing in Gordon Brown and saying

:28:56.:28:59.

look speak Labour language to them and see if you can bring them over.

:29:00.:29:03.

It is an understandable gambit, but I don't think it is about this now.

:29:04.:29:10.

It is not about adding a couple of constitutional levers up to Scottish

:29:11.:29:12.

politician, it is about making an emotional case for the union. That

:29:13.:29:15.

is what they should be doing in the last few days of this campaign. It

:29:16.:29:20.

seems as if the unionists just seem unwilling in principle to talk about

:29:21.:29:23.

Britain and the love of it in the same way that the nationalists talk

:29:24.:29:27.

about Scotland. I mean there is plenty of passion for the union. I

:29:28.:29:31.

think they have to do both. I would agree with Fraser there. The

:29:32.:29:36.

constitutional settlement has to be dealt with. We need to talk about

:29:37.:29:39.

more powers, fine. We need to do that on the one hand, but on the

:29:40.:29:44.

other hand, the unionists need to make a positive case for remaining

:29:45.:29:48.

within the UK. And that would be my main criticism of what they have

:29:49.:29:54.

done so far. This then obviously opens the door to, as car win Jones

:29:55.:29:58.

was tweeting to Wales and Northern Ireland, and then talking about more

:29:59.:30:02.

devolved powers for everyone? Which is why they didn't want to have this

:30:03.:30:06.

argument to start with. It is a separate issue as opposed to

:30:07.:30:13.

Scottish independent. Scottish independence is a binary selle the,

:30:14.:30:18.

and along the lines of devolution is a separate question. If you are in

:30:19.:30:23.

the no camp or the Better Together camp you say no to independence and

:30:24.:30:28.

then you still get these extra devolved powers. Do you think some

:30:29.:30:31.

people will not want that at all? Yes, there will be quite a few

:30:32.:30:35.

people who don't think Scotland has benefitted that much from

:30:36.:30:41.

devolution. And they can't quite see why giving the Scottish politicians

:30:42.:30:43.

more power will make Scotland better, given the powers they have

:30:44.:30:47.

got haven't been a wild success in the last 15 years. But those guys

:30:48.:30:52.

are not represented. They are in a minority, they are not represented.

:30:53.:30:55.

Right now as we can understand it there are only two options in the

:30:56.:31:00.

ballots paper, one is for complete separation and the other for a whole

:31:01.:31:04.

lot more powers to the Scottish Parliament. The status quo option

:31:05.:31:08.

seems to have been taken off the table.

:31:09.:31:12.

Thank you both very much indeed. If there are jitters right now in

:31:13.:31:15.

the Better Together campaign they are being felt tanningably by the

:31:16.:31:18.

markets as we were discussing earlier. The pound plunged to its

:31:19.:31:23.

lowest level against the dollar for ten months as the first poll emerged

:31:24.:31:28.

that Scotland was are the to go it alone. The strongest card the Better

:31:29.:31:33.

Together has played in its insistence threat is Scotland could

:31:34.:31:35.

no longer keep the pound. Would it prove to be a bullying argument or a

:31:36.:31:42.

persuasive one. Duncan Weldon, our economics correspondent is in the

:31:43.:31:46.

City of London for us. Talk us through what happened today? Behind

:31:47.:31:54.

me is the City, they have had dramatic day with huge moves.

:31:55.:31:56.

Starting with the one you mentioned, the currency. Today the pound lost

:31:57.:32:00.

1% of value against the US dollar and down a per cent against the

:32:01.:32:06.

euro. 1% may not sound like a big move, but for a major international

:32:07.:32:11.

currency that is a big move. It wasn't just the currency market that

:32:12.:32:16.

saw the turbulence, the shares of big companies that sell to Scotland,

:32:17.:32:22.

Lloyd's of Scotland, Babcot, they were down heavily as well. When I

:32:23.:32:28.

talked to Stuart Hosier from the SNP, he said it wasn't a cram matk

:32:29.:32:33.

move and happening grabbed -- dramatically, and happening

:32:34.:32:36.

gradually, he blamed the Better Together for refusing to allow the

:32:37.:32:40.

currency union? Well I think the thing is, this is definitely being

:32:41.:32:48.

driven by uncertainty. There are so many unanswered questions, all very

:32:49.:32:52.

important to the British and Scottish economies, what currency

:32:53.:32:56.

will they use, what will happen with the debt. Doesn't exit make the rest

:32:57.:33:00.

of the UK more likely to exit the EU. What happens to oil revenue, how

:33:01.:33:05.

does it affect UK exports. These are all really big questions to which we

:33:06.:33:09.

don't have answers. If there is one thing the markets don't like is

:33:10.:33:12.

uncertainty, today we have a lot of uncertainty.

:33:13.:33:15.

More tomorrow. More in the next few weeks, where do you think this is

:33:16.:33:21.

going, briefly? Very briefly I think the next ten days are going to be

:33:22.:33:25.

volatile. The markets, people over there will be watching all the polls

:33:26.:33:30.

very closely. If we get a no vote the feeling of the people I have

:33:31.:33:34.

been speaking to is you will quickly see Scottish share prices come up

:33:35.:33:37.

and more value back in sterling. If we get a yes vote all the unanswered

:33:38.:33:42.

questions become a lot more real. Both sides are currently working on

:33:43.:33:45.

the assumption you have 18 months to sort it out after a yes vote. I

:33:46.:33:48.

think there will be an awful lot of market pressure to get an answer

:33:49.:33:55.

much quicker er, if we get a yes vote.

:33:56.:33:57.

What about those the other side of the border in this debate, the

:33:58.:34:02.

voices that don't get a vote, but may feel passionately about the

:34:03.:34:05.

question that is being asked. A year ago we hosted a debate on the union

:34:06.:34:09.

bridge that straddles the Tweed. It was a moment the yes campaign

:34:10.:34:12.

emerged as winners. We returned to the very spot and sent this report.

:34:13.:34:18.

Obviously the debate about Scottish independence has mainly focussed on

:34:19.:34:21.

the people who live behind me in Scotland. But what of the other

:34:22.:34:26.

participants in this 300-year-old marriage. What does it mean for the

:34:27.:34:37.

people who live over there? For nearly 200 years the union bridge

:34:38.:34:43.

over the River Tweed has witnessed a changed world and the UK. A year ago

:34:44.:34:46.

it was the site of Newsnight's live debate on the future of Scotland. It

:34:47.:34:53.

has, shall we say, had much water under the bridge since then. For the

:34:54.:34:56.

entirety of the referendum campaign there has been an assumption this

:34:57.:34:59.

side of the Scottish border that voters here don't really need to

:35:00.:35:03.

worry too much about what's going on over there. Afterall, the poll

:35:04.:35:08.

suggests that independence was going to be comfortably defeated. Now

:35:09.:35:12.

though some polls suggest a different picture. So what are

:35:13.:35:17.

voters over here thinking now? Barry and Nantesy Smith are on holiday

:35:18.:35:20.

here from Staffordshire. The changing polls worry them. We go on

:35:21.:35:25.

holiday to Scotland regularly, this is the third or fourth time in the

:35:26.:35:28.

last three or four years, we love going north of the border. But it

:35:29.:35:32.

doesn't feel like we are going abroad. Maybe in future it will do.

:35:33.:35:38.

As an English person I'm proud to be British. I just feel that we are the

:35:39.:35:44.

British Isles and we're better together, better united together

:35:45.:35:47.

than going our separate ways, we could be and are stronger together.

:35:48.:35:51.

The boreder between England and Scotland has many reminders of

:35:52.:35:56.

centuries of conflict. On the Berwick ramparts, build to protect

:35:57.:36:02.

the town from attacking Scots I get Phil Johnson, he's the editor of two

:36:03.:36:09.

newspapers, the Berwickshire News for Scottish reader and the Berwick

:36:10.:36:14.

Advertiser for English readers. Many identify themselves with the town

:36:15.:36:20.

rather than Scottish or English. If there was an international border of

:36:21.:36:23.

course things would change, but perhaps not culturally. There would

:36:24.:36:28.

still be cross-border links remaining the same. A lot might

:36:29.:36:32.

depend on what Scottish independence looks like. Walking through Berwick

:36:33.:36:36.

you get the impression of a town that looks in two directions

:36:37.:36:40.

overlapping cultural identities common.

:36:41.:36:46.

What would it mean for you as a west Highland terrier do you think?

:36:47.:36:54.

Anything? Anything in particular? (Barks) if Scotland were another

:36:55.:36:57.

country, a separate foreign country, different state, would that bother

:36:58.:37:02.

you? They just do what they want to do any way. There is a Scottish

:37:03.:37:07.

souvenir shop in England. English and Scottish tourists it seems have

:37:08.:37:12.

different tastes. You have to do different orders because the

:37:13.:37:14.

Scottish people generally, even though they are coming to England

:37:15.:37:17.

won't take anything with an English flag. Really, some of them will, but

:37:18.:37:23.

a lot of them won't touch anything with an English flag. English people

:37:24.:37:27.

even though not quite in Scotland yet are happy to take the Scottish

:37:28.:37:30.

flag. That is really interesting? Just some people just won't touch

:37:31.:37:35.

anything with an English flag. The town behind me has changed hands

:37:36.:37:39.

between England and Scotland 13-times over the course of its

:37:40.:37:44.

history. Talking to people today about the prospect of further

:37:45.:37:49.

constitutional upheaval, the emotions I have most encountered are

:37:50.:37:53.

uncertainty about the future and sadness. This union chain bridge

:37:54.:37:58.

spans Britain's life as great power. Opened just five years after the

:37:59.:38:02.

Battle of Waterloo, it stood during the golden age of Britishness. It

:38:03.:38:08.

may begin its next chapter brackets by border posts. The union gone and

:38:09.:38:16.

the chain broken. The Scottish historian Tom Devine is

:38:17.:38:21.

here, with Miral Somerset-Webb editor of Money Week who lives in

:38:22.:38:26.

Edinburgh. We have a passionate unionist from Boston joining us too.

:38:27.:38:29.

Thank you very much for joining us. Tom if it is a yes next week will

:38:30.:38:35.

you be happy? Mixed feelings obviously. I have come out in

:38:36.:38:40.

support of the yes campaign, reluctantly if you will. But I'm

:38:41.:38:44.

conscious of the fact that would only be the

:38:45.:38:46.

conscious of the fact that would process. First of all there would be

:38:47.:38:50.

the post-referendum discussion, the management of the process. And then

:38:51.:38:57.

you know given the long sent trees of connection there will then be

:38:58.:39:01.

challenges, major challenges ahead for the, if you like the new

:39:02.:39:07.

Scottish nation. And of course there is also the sense of leaving a very

:39:08.:39:12.

good and old friend, in one way. But I hope that what's referred to as

:39:13.:39:17.

the social union, if you like, the sociocultural union, will in the

:39:18.:39:20.

long run be strengthened, because one of the reasons I have come to

:39:21.:39:25.

this conclusion is that the union itself is no longer fit for purpose,

:39:26.:39:32.

it is a destablising factor within the British Isles. It is interesting

:39:33.:39:36.

that you say leaving a good and old friend, a lot of people imagining it

:39:37.:39:40.

as a turning their backs on something they dislike. Let me ask

:39:41.:39:46.

you, as a Brit, living in Scotland, do you think it would be odd to be

:39:47.:39:53.

here after a yes vote? Yeah, I think it would be very odd indeed. When I

:39:54.:39:57.

first moved to Scotland it never occurred to me that there was a

:39:58.:40:01.

group of people who felt there was intense difference between the

:40:02.:40:04.

English and Scottish and Britain was divided T would be very strange to

:40:05.:40:07.

feel one lives on the same island but in a different country. Have you

:40:08.:40:11.

been treated like that as the you have been living, clearly you have

:40:12.:40:14.

chosen to make Scotland your home, so you don't feel like you are not

:40:15.:40:19.

welcome here? Generally not, it is not until very recently that there

:40:20.:40:23.

has begun to feel a difference between people perceived as English

:40:24.:40:28.

and people certificate received as Scottish -- perceived as Scottish, I

:40:29.:40:34.

find it strange and unfortunately. Neal sorry we can't see, do you

:40:35.:40:40.

believe it is driven by a nationalism or a sense of coming of

:40:41.:40:43.

age. What do you think is behind this? I think it is driven by a kind

:40:44.:40:48.

of collective madness from the advantage points of the millions of

:40:49.:40:52.

Scots who don't live in Scotland. And we vastly outnumber those who

:40:53.:40:57.

do. This is just astonishing to behold. I live in the United States,

:40:58.:41:02.

but still feel myself every inch a Scotsman. But this is a bit like

:41:03.:41:06.

Colorado seeking its independence, or if you want a European version it

:41:07.:41:11.

is a little bit as if a member of the United Kingdom is opting to

:41:12.:41:15.

become Slovakia, because that is just how important Scotland will be

:41:16.:41:20.

in the world if it takes this extraordinary and economically

:41:21.:41:22.

suicidal step. I think from the advantage point of an economic

:41:23.:41:27.

historian this is obviously going to be a disastrous move, we are just

:41:28.:41:30.

seeing how big a disaster it will be. It is worth saying how munda

:41:31.:41:37.

Chris, ous the Scottish nationalists have been throughout the campaign

:41:38.:41:41.

talking about the benefits to Scotland, there is no benefits,

:41:42.:41:47.

Scotland will lose heavily with this divorce, I'm sure Tom must feel that

:41:48.:41:50.

and why he feels regret about what is happening. This will be, make no

:41:51.:41:55.

mistake a disaster, the sad thing is we have made the case so negatively

:41:56.:41:59.

when there is clearly a positive case to be made for the United

:42:00.:42:02.

Kingdom. As Fraser Nelson said earlier in the programme. The last

:42:03.:42:10.

statement made I can agree with. If this happens in the yes sense, then

:42:11.:42:14.

later historians will to a large extent I think blame the no campaign

:42:15.:42:22.

for its inadequacies, and blame Cameron for not agreeing to a

:42:23.:42:26.

three-part referendum. If you go back to Neal Ferguson, I hope that

:42:27.:42:32.

he won't mind me reminding him as a Scottish expatriot that he was the

:42:33.:42:36.

author of the famous press statement a number of years ago calling my

:42:37.:42:40.

country the Belarus of the west. And saying that it should be wound up.

:42:41.:42:47.

That is exactly what... Hold on a second. That is exactly what you

:42:48.:42:52.

will be voting for. I know that Harvard is place of civilised gent

:42:53.:42:57.

tillity, and I know you will allow me to speak. What I'm saying to you

:42:58.:43:04.

is this, once argued that there was, that this nation was inadequate and

:43:05.:43:12.

that in fact its assets should be offloaded and be recalled north

:43:13.:43:16.

Britain, I don't think you can speak impartially given that background

:43:17.:43:21.

which I know you can't indicate you didn't say it. You can't talk

:43:22.:43:27.

impartially about this. If I may I'm being entirely impartial, if I may

:43:28.:43:32.

answer, that I'm being entirely impartial, you are voting to become

:43:33.:43:37.

Belarus, this won't turn Scotland into some fancy Scandinavian place,

:43:38.:43:42.

it will be an impoverished back water. I admire some of your

:43:43.:43:50.

writings, not all. But what you have just said is blatant nonsense. Let

:43:51.:43:54.

me bring you in. You get a real sense of the passions that are

:43:55.:43:58.

clearly going to be toe foremost right now -- to be at the foremost

:43:59.:44:03.

right now. Is that civil campaign, have you felt intimidated one way or

:44:04.:44:07.

another? If you spend too much time on Twitter you almost feel

:44:08.:44:12.

uncivilised and threatened. Generally a civilised debate. At

:44:13.:44:15.

each end you get people who get very angry about things. Because you have

:44:16.:44:19.

extremists at either end of the debate it has made people feel there

:44:20.:44:22.

is something of a difference between the Scottish and everybody else.

:44:23.:44:25.

When there genuinely isn't. If you look at all the survey, the social

:44:26.:44:30.

attitude surveys for Britons and Scotland, you find that the

:44:31.:44:35.

attitudes of the Scottish and British on almost everything are

:44:36.:44:39.

verging on identical, there is no difference between us culturally and

:44:40.:44:44.

socially it is exaggerated by the campaigns. This is extraordinary,

:44:45.:44:48.

there are major differences in political culture and voting

:44:49.:44:51.

patterns between the two countries, and there have been since the 1980s.

:44:52.:44:58.

This is in no way an anti-English campaign, the Scots applauded the

:44:59.:45:02.

English team when they entered the arena at Celtic park at the

:45:03.:45:05.

beginning of the Commonwealth Games, this is an issue with governance and

:45:06.:45:08.

self-determination. I said what it was doing was exaggerating

:45:09.:45:12.

differences between peoples that don't exist which is a very

:45:13.:45:16.

different thing. There are a couple of key points there, do you think

:45:17.:45:20.

that relations between the Scots and, if you like, the English would

:45:21.:45:24.

improve after this, do you think there is a chance, or do you think

:45:25.:45:27.

this is the start of a much bigger sense of federalism for the whole of

:45:28.:45:33.

the UK now? That's an easy question to answer historically, because when

:45:34.:45:38.

Scotland was an independent state its relations with England were

:45:39.:45:42.

extremely bad. As your earlier report mentioned the border between

:45:43.:45:46.

the two countries was more or less a permanent warzone, I won't say that

:45:47.:45:50.

will happen any time stone. The acrimony will only get worse, when

:45:51.:45:54.

we get down to the nitty gritty, if there is a yes vote of who exactly

:45:55.:45:59.

will bear the burden of the national debt and where the oil revenues will

:46:00.:46:03.

go. This will get much uglier than it is. The idea that Tom says we

:46:04.:46:08.

will some how get on better after a divorced suggests he has never been

:46:09.:46:13.

through a divorce. Thank you all very much indeed. Now just before we

:46:14.:46:19.

go we can show you the front page of tomorrow's Times. This is a TNS poll

:46:20.:46:29.

and excluding the "don't noes" those figures rest at exactly 50% for the

:46:30.:46:34.

yes campaign, 50% clearly for the Better Together. That does not

:46:35.:46:41.

include the "don't knows" but that is the poll leading the Times

:46:42.:46:46.

tomorrow, a TNS poll which tells you at the moment it is too close to

:46:47.:46:51.

call. That is it from all of us from here, from Edinburgh tonight there

:46:52.:46:55.

are nine days left until polling day, thank you for joining us, good

:46:56.:46:56.

night from all of us here. Good evening, it will be chilly in

:46:57.:47:25.

the morning with a few patches of mist and fog, the fog should lift

:47:26.:47:29.

pretty quickly through the morning and then we are into a decent day

:47:30.:47:31.

with light

:47:32.:47:33.

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