30/09/2014 Newsnight


30/09/2014

Evan Davis talks to Boris Johnson at the Conservative Party Conference and Emily Maitlis is live in Hong Kong.


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Transcript


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What's good about party conference is that you can first see if a party

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is up to winning an election, and two, whether it has ideas what to do

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if it does. We are with the Conservatives to look at both.

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David Cameron has been out and about in Birmingham, where the arguments

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of the next election are taking shape. Here we go, Ed Balls. We want

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a more strategic approach to the rails definitely. Having watched

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clips of politicians making their arguments, Boris Johnson thinks the

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language needs to improve. More people listening to are short

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Anglo-Saxon words that readily correspond to an object in the

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universe they can identify. Here in Hong Kong we are an hour away from

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dawn, the protests are getting bigger and more complicated. Where

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once they were calling for democracy, they are calling for an

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end to the Government who turned tear gas on their own people. Hong

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Kong democrats think they have seen it all before. They must listen and

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if they have a bloody crackdown here there will be hell to pay.

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if they have a bloody crackdown here Hello there, well, the serious

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bidding is under way here in Birmingham. As it

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bidding is under way here in Conservative conference it is senior

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Conservatives who have been laying out their offers, trying to outbid

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the opposition out their offers, trying to outbid

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year. We have had Home Secretary, Theresa May, on outlawing the

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obnoxious. Banning orders and extremism disruption orders will be

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in the next Conservative manifesto. LINEBREAK APPLAUSE

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More on that later in the programme. We have also had Health Secretary,

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Jeremy Hunt, trying to get the doctors in England to dock around

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the clock. I commit that at the end of the next parliament a

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Conservative Government will make sure every NHS patient, across the

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whole country, will be able to get weekend and eight till eight

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appointments. The words for David Cameron's leader's speech that

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journalists are turning their mind to. Allegra, do we have insight into

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what David Cameron will say? It is expected he will announce they will

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continue to ring-fence the NHS. They did it in the last parliament, quite

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a lot of conternation in their own Conservative Party, they will pledge

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to do it again. Remember when he was first leader he said there were

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three letters that mattered to him, the NHS. It seems tomorrow with his

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three letters that mattered to him, last speech before the election he

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will use another pledge on the NHS to say I don't want this to be my

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last as Prime Minister. He will place that centrally. It would be

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very draconian to the NHS if you didn't ring-fence it and give it at

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least flat spending in real tells. -- terms. It must have implication

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for other departments? If they continue the ring-fence they will go

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further in other places. The Conservatives always say

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ring-fencing is not always that brilliant for departments, it means

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they don't reform. So they have a muscular debate about this, lots of

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people on their own side would like them not to ring-fence it. It is

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controversial. There is something viewers should perhaps look out for

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which is a debate perhaps in the months ahead about will they make

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this department do more? Will they say you have got this ring-fence,

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now will you please do social care as well. It is making that

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department sweat more while it headlines they have kept it the

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same. So NHS in the speech tomorrow, tell us about the terrain on which

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it will be fought on over the next few weeks? The NHS is the centre

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piece, ?2. 5 billion more from Labour. Labour has a ginormous lead

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on the NHS. The strange thing was Ed Miliband doubling down on a

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strength. And the Conservatives are saying we will fight you on this.

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This issing that that those still thinking that maybe, maybe I will

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back David Cameron at the next election the NHS matters to them a

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lot. They want something in that area. They have prebriefed something

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about the NHS, anything else? I think it will be much more, if you

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think the NHS was targeted at our viewers, people outside the hall,

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tomorrow there will be more to tickle the tummies of the people in

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the room. Thank you. The leader's speech is the climax of the

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conference, one of the highlights of the event is the speech by Boris

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Johnson, it is this morning, and a demonstration for anyone who hadn't

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spotted it that the London mayor is a formidable communicator. He is

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able to obfuscate and fudge like the rest of them, but he can sum things

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up more colourfully than most. Today he talked about his economic vision

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of Britain, exporting weapons grade chillies to India, bus stops to last

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vague carriages come better bands to China -- cumberbands to China. He

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speaks well and popular, but not popular enough to get those who

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think the Tories are toxic to vote for emthis. I sat down with Boris

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Johnson at lunchtime to talk Conservatives, communicators and

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disconnected voters. Boris Johnson, do you have a theory as to why the

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Conservatives can't get more than 35% apparently in the poll, that the

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65% who didn't vote for them at the last election show no interest in

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voting for them in the next? I don't think you need any kind of theory to

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address this question, this is really something that could change

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very fast. If you look at what happened last week in Manchester,

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and you look at the way I think the Labour programme for the country

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looked so frail and so eminently attackable, I any you could see in

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the course of the next few months you could see a change in those

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numbers. Look at the numbers, you talk about the 35%, look at the

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numbers which assess economic competence and prime ministerial

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qualities, and as the great Australian Linton Crosby says, the

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"qal leads the quant mate". What it means is those things that are the

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Tory approach, David Cameron and George Osborne are doing, it

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massively outshine what is Labour are doing, those things will

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translate into quantity of polling into support for the Conservatives

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as the election gets closer. That is an optimistic view isn't it. I know

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MPs in man chest e Newcastle, Liverpool, Leeds and no sign any of

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MPs, and that is even with the poll, people say yeah they are better at

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the economy, we prefer David Cameron to Ed Miliband, but no we are not

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going to vote Conservative in the swathes of the country? There are

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actually huge parts of the country that we are winning back. I was just

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out yesterday in Newcastle-under-Lyme in a seat we

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haven't held in hundreds of years where we were at 3% now. A huge

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brick-making industry and potteries and things like that. Don't rule us

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out in the cities. I think the message we have got to get across is

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the Conservatives are there for everybody. The broad idea is the way

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to sort out the problems of the country is not to punish success but

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to stimulate people to do their best. And if you get people, if you

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get business and industry really motoring that will supply the wealth

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to pay for the poorest and the neediest. That is one-nation

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Conservatism. The problem is you have been saying it for a couple of

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decades now. The problem of toxic Tories in large parts of the

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country, and you have left it very late to solve it by next May haven't

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you? I wonder, because I think that if you look at, it is certainly the

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case that in large parts of the country there was post-industrial

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decline, there were parts of the country that didn't benefit from

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many of the great supply-side reforms that came through in the

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1980, the things that have made London go gangbusters at the moment,

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there were things that didn't benefit from that. For instance if

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you look at the motor manufacturing industry now, we are about to become

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the second-biggest in Europe. Look at what's happening in our tech

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sector, where all that funny stuff that's happening in London that you

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know six years ago you or I barely understood is all fizzing and

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popping now, in Manchester, in Leeds, here in Birmingham, you know,

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if things are changing and I think that politics is about you know not

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panicking about polls, but about trying to show what your message is

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and to keep driving away. I think our polls are very strong when you

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consider that we have been through the worst recession for 100 years,

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and the Labour Party is barely a whisker above us just in the current

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who would you vote for poll, let alone who is better on the economy.

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Let's you know, poll, I was much further behind, I think, in London

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in 2007 and then went on to win in 2008, according to the strict

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opinion polls. You make the point that Labour are not doing very well

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either, I wonder whether we are in the midst of a slightly bigger

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picture of the decline of the two main parties, and there is just

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enormous political disengagment from the message they have. You know you

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will know that the number of people who will say they are all the same.

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There is this huge sense of disenchantment? I think there has

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been a lot of that. I think the answer is that we have just got to

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do what we say we are going to. Do and so like on this Europe business,

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we have got to mean it. We have got to go in there and you know with the

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Lisbon Treaty we will have a referendum, we didn't have one and

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that was a mistake. We should go in there and make sure we get a proper

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reform, get a renegotiation and then put it to the people of this

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country. You think it could be about broken promises or a sense that

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people are like that. I think Iraq was massively corrosive. The

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financial crash might have left people feeling they were sold that.

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I wonder also, you are regarded as one of the best communicators in

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politics, I wonder whether there is a communication... That is a hotly

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contested field. That's an interesting point, let's have a look

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at a few clip, we have assembled clips of politician, one from each

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party, they are not the most awful clips we have picked these almost at

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random, we didn't have much time to get them together. Watch them and

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give me a comment. Clips. One from each party, just sort of random

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clip, we will start with one from Ed Balls, here we go, Ed Balls. We want

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a more strategic approach to the railways, definitely, the fact that

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Network Rail has now come back on to the Government balance sheets

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provides an opportunity for that. But I think actually the franchising

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process over the last ten years has delivered more passenger numbers,

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there has been big public investment as well, but in the east coast they

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are a public operator who has been doing a really good job. This is one

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froEd spaced Davy the Liberal Democrat minister. Whether it is

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water issues which the Environment Minister has a robust regime on.

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Whether it is the integrity of the wells dug, independent well

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examiners. Whether it is methane emissions and so on, we have taken a

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very robust approach. And let's do last one, we have a Conservative

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here too, this is William Hague. Often considered a very good orator,

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let's listen to Hague. I think these events make even clearer the need

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for what we are proposing. That it is essential to have change in

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Europe and what has happened here, which is an increasing power for the

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European Parliament at the expense of the council and heads of

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Government, makes the need for that even clearer. Let me give you my

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thoughts about that before you ask me. I think one thing that is

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incredibly important is to try to speak, and I fail totally in this,

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and I catch myself endlessly on the radio, you are waffling and blurbing

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and using all sorts of words in that way. What people listen to are short

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Anglo-Saxon words that readily correspond to some object in the

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universe that they can identify. So, in other words, talk simple lie, use

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plain English. Talk about stuff in the real world. Now you knows

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Winston Churchill when he made his great speeches with the things that

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really shot through into the public consciousness, what were they? It

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was "we shall fight them on the beaches, we will fight them on the

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landing grounds, we will fight them on the hills and the streets, we

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will never surrender". Which is the only Latinate word in that chunk,

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which is the only word derived from a romance language. Subjecter.

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Correct, all the rest are simple English words. That people

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understand absolutely clearly. With the pattern with the franchising and

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the blah, blah, blah fish cake, nobody, it just turns into great

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mush. And Thatcher actually was clear. She would go on the Today

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Programme and say, "yesterday we had a piece of cheese and it was very

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good", or something like that. And it would be unbelievably clear and

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you knew what she was on about. I wonder with the Ed Balls clip, I

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wonder sometimes whether the message isn't clear, or whether essentially,

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the sentences come out like that because you are trying not

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obfuscate. Completely right, what is going on is politicians are using

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complicated words and concepts in order to polyfiller a bit of the

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argument. That cheeses people off, to get back to cheese. They can

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detect that and spot it. They want to hear it put more simply. I mean

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I'm a terrible offender myself. A terrible offender. I know I do it. I

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try not to. But you do it with more aplomb, and you are funnier than the

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others. If you want to be heard, you have to speak plainly. And I believe

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that. Completely. And that is, I think, at the heart of much of the

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problem. But what it is about, it is a problem, I think it is a problem

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of language. It is a problem of style. But that reflects an

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unwillingness to be honest about the issues. You know. Suppose we have

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got to close 70 police stations in London, now it would be much easier

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to talk about reform and improvement of the estate, or some such waffle.

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It is interesting because we were having this discussion earlier if

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everybody was like you and a little bit more open, and perhaps a little

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bit funnier and willing to make gaffes and speak off script. If they

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were maybe that would, the world would fall in and there would be

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disorder for the party? I think it would be much more interesting, I

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think the arguments when you dig into it, people want to engage in

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the argument. And you can't engage in the argument if it is cloaked and

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swaddled in a lot of waffle that nobody can get to grips with. I

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wonder if there is a question over your style, this is an interesting

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question, whether it is hard to both be very engaging and statesmanlike,

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it is really conspicuous on the polling for you. You score so highly

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on likability and incredibly low on statesmanship. C'est la vie. Do you

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worried about not being taken seriously? No I would much rather be

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understood and get my case across than to jazz everything up into a

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load of meaningless waffle. Boris Johnson, thank you very much. Thank

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you. Boris with a little testing of my Latin in that. Given that in

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recent years we have had the Terrorism Act 20000, the

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antiterrorism and secure act 2001, the Prevention of Terrorism Act

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2005, the Counter Terrorism Act 2008, and the protection of freedoms

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act 2012, you might have thought we covered most of the useful ground in

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dealing with threats to our society. But Home Secretary Theresa May

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thinks we have overlooked something. Have a listen to this, at conference

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today setting out the gaps she wants to fill. I want to see new banning

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orders for extremist groups that fall short of the existing laws in

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terrorism. I want new civil powers to target extremist who is stay just

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within the law but still spread poisonous hatred, so both policies,

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banning orders and extremism disruption orders will be in the

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next Conservative manifesto. The essence of it is to outlaw those,

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treatmentists not extremist enough to be illegal. The banning orders

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would curtail the activities of groups that want to spread hatred or

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overthrow democracy. If there is one individual it is thought they are

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aimed it is radical preacher Anjem Choudary. This is his reaction? The

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biggest radicalising is not me talking about Sharia, it is the

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foreign policy of torturing and slaughtering people in Muslim

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countries that is having a backlash for people here. We have been

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propagaging the same thing for the last 30 years, we have never

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changed, the same demonstrations are taking place that long ago. The only

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thing that has changed was the British Government's laws, we have

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never asked permission to propagage Islam and we will not ask permission

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now. I'm joined by Afzal Amin working with the Foreign Office on

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counter extremism and former army captain, and Zubeda Limbada, from

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ConnectJustice. She captain, and Zubeda Limbada, from

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evening to you both. I will start evening to you both. I will start

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with you, how would this work, a minister thinks an individual is

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promoting hate, very annoying, bit irritating, what happens? We all

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know the extremism we see on our television screens, what Theresa May

:19:09.:19:12.

wants to do is turn off that tap of propaganda towards terrorism,

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because if people are allowed in our country. I went to Iraq and

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Afghanistan when the British Army was fighting terrorists. We don't

:19:19.:19:22.

want to come home and find that people propagaging on behalf of the

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terrorists are free -- propogating on behalf of the terrorists are free

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to do that on our streets. We see a handful but very extreme people, I

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think it is disgusting a that the British broadcasting corporation

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bring on Anjem Choudary and other extremists again and again, and

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ignore the millions of Muslim people who live in Britain peacefully and

:19:48.:19:50.

serve in the Armed Forces. This is something that has to be recognised,

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those not happy here and want to bring about extremist and terrorist

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approach to how to settle differences I would advocate go even

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further than stopping them working here but prosecute them, those that

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are guilty, strip them of nationality and return them to

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countries of parental origin. If you don't like it here, please leave.

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You are not an Anjem Choudary fan, I am assuming. The majority of Muslims

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are not. What do you want to do about him if you don't like him?

:20:19.:20:23.

First of all it is not to give him the oxygen of publicity which he is

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currently enjoying. Especially for someone who has around 100

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followers, there is a disproportion nationality to the voice and

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airspace's given. More I would say moderate voice, the majority of

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voices need to be given some traction within the media to hear

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those voices. But banning Anjem Choudary, using him as an example,

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we could pick other names, banning him does it help reduce his

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influence over however many followers he has? The last time I

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checked we lived in a democracy and we still live in a democracy, so

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banning people and ideas is not conducive as a way forward. It may

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appeal as a temporary measure, but it is certainly not a long-term

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solution. You have to listen to the narrative of what is being said. In

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terms of ideas and what grievances are, and listening to ideas that we

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may not like, but within the realm of what is being discussed as well.

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What is being proposed is to top propaganda towards terrorism, and

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that is what Anjem Choudary and his ilk do, that is what needs to be

:21:28.:21:31.

stopped. Free speech is fine, disagree with foreign policy,

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domestic policy, stop and search whatever, have a civilised

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discussion. What they do is promote and propogate for terrorists. But

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that is illegal already? If you are prosecuted. There is another law to

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get rid of that? You have just argued about deporting people, how

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do you deport people if you are born here. If you are not happy in our

:21:54.:21:58.

country, why are you still here? If you want to go and live under the

:21:59.:22:03.

ISIL terrorists, do so. That reduces a discussion, so if you say ban

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them, send them home, that reduces the discussion. I'm not saying send

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them home, some are born here. I'm saying if people are in this country

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advocating on behalf of ISIS and other terrorists groups, they should

:22:17.:22:19.

be taken and sent back to where their parents come from. You can't

:22:20.:22:25.

have... That is not what we are talking about, this is a measure of

:22:26.:22:30.

potentially the banning of individuals or groups we are not

:22:31.:22:34.

talking about deporting. But countering the propaganda is what

:22:35.:22:39.

this is about. Could you use this measure against the English Defence

:22:40.:22:42.

League for example? It depends what we were advocating. If they were

:22:43.:22:47.

advocating what Anjem Choudary advocates. Who makes the decision,

:22:48.:22:52.

it seems to be reasonable belief on behalf of the minister? We have a

:22:53.:22:55.

court of law, we try it with a jury. We don't, the judge has to decide

:22:56.:23:01.

whether it is a reasonable view on the part of it? The system that we

:23:02.:23:07.

set up with the number of judges that make a decision that is the

:23:08.:23:11.

system we use. We have to step back and listen to what we need to talk

:23:12.:23:14.

about here. There is election time and the rhetoric steps up in terms

:23:15.:23:18.

of who will be tough on crime and extremism. I must interrupt. Please

:23:19.:23:24.

don't interrupt. Two Americans were beheaded by a terrorist group whose

:23:25.:23:27.

sympathisers are operating in our societies, they must be stopped.

:23:28.:23:31.

What do you propose to stop them. 2014 around 28,000 images were

:23:32.:23:35.

removed from the Internet, that is one example, but can we legally just

:23:36.:23:40.

stop removing things. You haven't used the one argument I thought you

:23:41.:23:45.

would use is this might give these folks the oxygen of a persecution

:23:46.:23:52.

complex that makes them more virulant in their abuse, is that

:23:53.:23:57.

something? The feeling that of not banning things as a way out, we are

:23:58.:24:00.

not looking at the underlying causes, which I have mentioned. If

:24:01.:24:05.

you start looking at the internet saying we don't like these images

:24:06.:24:09.

and ban nonviolent extremists and their ideas. It is the dangerous

:24:10.:24:13.

aspects of what happens to ideas, you can't stop the flow of ideas. We

:24:14.:24:18.

do that already with so many things. Theresa May got hid of Abu Qatar and

:24:19.:24:26.

Abu Hamza, that was a great thing. Something needs to be done, but with

:24:27.:24:30.

the history of the IRA we tried to ban people and it doesn't work. We

:24:31.:24:35.

need to leave it there. Thank you very much. Well, enough talk about

:24:36.:24:41.

policy the burning question for Conservatives here is can they win

:24:42.:24:44.

the election next year. Boris Johnson told us earlier they could,

:24:45.:24:47.

Allegra has been looking more closely at the maths.

:24:48.:24:55.

The Tories in Birmingham are chirpy and they don't quite know why. They

:24:56.:25:00.

know how terrible the polling is for them. Labour is much closer to

:25:01.:25:04.

victory in 2015 than the Tories, but still they are upbeat. They think Ed

:25:05.:25:08.

Miliband had a flat conference, the maths may be bad, they say, but the

:25:09.:25:12.

music, the music is much, much better. Right now the Conservatives

:25:13.:25:21.

have 303 seats, Labour 256, the Liberal Democrats 56. Opinion polls

:25:22.:25:25.

suggest in an election tomorrow Labour would win way over 300 and

:25:26.:25:35.

the Tories much less. Richie Emily Maitlis may have whizzy graphics but

:25:36.:25:39.

we only have paper weights and markers. We did find an expert to

:25:40.:25:43.

discuss the maths. Tell me the problem for the people out there,

:25:44.:25:47.

they are in a God mood but they know the map isn't looking that good for

:25:48.:25:52.

them? While they are in a good mood and the Conservatives have a good

:25:53.:25:56.

narrative and ahead on the leadership, they are behind on the

:25:57.:26:00.

votes. The reason is the Liberal Democrat support has collapsed and

:26:01.:26:03.

over towards Labour. There is lots of seats where the Conservatives

:26:04.:26:06.

fell just short of Labour in the last election, but now Labour will

:26:07.:26:10.

be bolstered by the support of lots of people who voted Liberal Democrat

:26:11.:26:19.

last time. Their on opponents are up what else? Their own support is

:26:20.:26:25.

leaking to UKIP. On the east coast is the UKIP strongest points, the

:26:26.:26:28.

Conservatives are worried about losing seats there. Clacton, Thanet

:26:29.:26:33.

South where Nigel Farage is standing. At the same time trying to

:26:34.:26:38.

winning seats off Labour they have to make sure they don't win too many

:26:39.:26:43.

votes to UKIP. So what on earth has put the spring in their step at Tory

:26:44.:26:48.

Conference? The Tories are targeting the Lib Dems aren't they? Yes, that

:26:49.:26:55.

is why where they hope to win most in the election. In the south west

:26:56.:27:01.

it is the key battle ground between Liberal Democrats and Conservatives.

:27:02.:27:08.

Somewhere like Wells or Chippenham. Some of your colleagues think that

:27:09.:27:14.

if everything else was equal and that the Tories held on to

:27:15.:27:20.

everything they had, and they had a Liberal Democrat sweep, they could

:27:21.:27:22.

form some kind of minority Government. It is a big if? Yes, it

:27:23.:27:29.

is a big if. Their big problem has been that everyone expected UKIP to

:27:30.:27:33.

get squeezed after the European election and attention went

:27:34.:27:38.

elsewhere, but the defection of Carwell and the forthcoming

:27:39.:27:40.

by-election, there is more publicity for UKIP, if that keeps on rolling

:27:41.:27:46.

the Conservatives are in trouble. Their hope is not to use go where

:27:47.:27:54.

that defection went, it is a much less UKIP friendly, if the

:27:55.:27:57.

Conservatives hold that in the by-election it will put a lid on

:27:58.:28:03.

UKIP. The Conservative Party are targeting not just a lot of Liberal

:28:04.:28:07.

Democrat seats but Labour seats they just missed out on last time. The

:28:08.:28:12.

place they just missed out on last time, so where John Denham are

:28:13.:28:28.

standing down, so Labour losing the Ince -- incumbency place. They are

:28:29.:28:31.

hoping the final push will push it to Conservative. On current polls

:28:32.:28:36.

they wouldn't pick up any at all. In his interview with Evan yesterday,

:28:37.:28:39.

the Prime Minister talked about fighting a double battle, a blue-red

:28:40.:28:43.

one against Labour, and a purple-blue one against UKIP. As you

:28:44.:28:49.

have seen it is a three-way battle, Lib Dems, UKIP and Labour, no

:28:50.:28:53.

general likes to fight battle on two fronts, let alone three.

:28:54.:28:58.

Let's ask ourselves, can the Conservatives possibly win the next

:28:59.:29:02.

election. I'm joined by journalist and commentator Isabel Oakeshott,

:29:03.:29:08.

who is currently co-writing David Cameron's autobiography with Lord

:29:09.:29:14.

Ashford, a Phil Collins from the Times. Can the Conservatives

:29:15.:29:19.

possibly win an election? Possibly but the chances are very slim. I

:29:20.:29:23.

agree, very unlikely indeed. The best we are talking about is largest

:29:24.:29:28.

party in a new parliament. How much chance do they have of being the

:29:29.:29:31.

largest party? I think the key thing you have to look at is the

:29:32.:29:35.

battleground seats. And Lord Ashcroft who does the most detailed

:29:36.:29:39.

polling on this has only in the last couple of days released the latest

:29:40.:29:44.

information, that shows that the Conservatives are behind in 24 key

:29:45.:29:48.

marginals and they only really have scope to lose 22. So that is pretty

:29:49.:29:53.

bleak. Do you share that analysis? Not really. I mean in a way the next

:29:54.:29:58.

election is so tight that predicting it is a foolish thing to do. Let me

:29:59.:30:03.

try. I think that the Tories will double down very hard on the

:30:04.:30:06.

analysis that the economy is going well and Ed Miliband is too great a

:30:07.:30:11.

risk. I think those two are extremely strong. I think what

:30:12.:30:15.

Isabel says is correct today, I don't think anybody thinks that the

:30:16.:30:20.

poll that is we have today will be the verdict come the general

:30:21.:30:23.

election. We have to think where will it go, my own sense is very

:30:24.:30:26.

probably Ed Miliband won't be Prime Minister. And the reason for that is

:30:27.:30:31.

that he won't be Prime Minister. Right but the maths is very

:30:32.:30:33.

difficult for the Conservative Party. It is almost like what you

:30:34.:30:36.

are saying he can't be Prime Minister but the maths don't say

:30:37.:30:40.

that? They are difficult and the big political error of this parliament

:30:41.:30:45.

was to lose the boundary changes. That was a colossal political error,

:30:46.:30:49.

if that had gone through and the Tories had 15 or 20 seats we would

:30:50.:30:52.

be in a very different place. Even so the maths are not impossible to

:30:53.:30:56.

just get over the line to be the largest single party. How much do

:30:57.:31:00.

those poll, you are doing polls in marginal constituencies and UKIP are

:31:01.:31:04.

scoring 15% something like that. They are scoring 15%, come election

:31:05.:31:07.

day, you just don't know what those people are really going to do. They

:31:08.:31:13.

may all wither down to 3%, what did they get the last election, 3%?

:31:14.:31:18.

Absolutely not, Lord Ashcroft would say polls are a snapshot, not a

:31:19.:31:21.

prediction. One of the fascinating questions is, when people get into

:31:22.:31:25.

the polling booth, are they going to vote for their local candidate? Are

:31:26.:31:30.

they thinking in that polling booth who do I want to be Prime Minister?

:31:31.:31:34.

If it is the second then David Cameron is quids in, if you like,

:31:35.:31:40.

because what we know is that people consistently see him as a more

:31:41.:31:43.

viable prime ministerial candidate than Ed Miliband, but if it is about

:31:44.:31:46.

a local vote it will be very different. As I understand it, it is

:31:47.:31:53.

the Lib Dem voters from 2010 so crucial here. You only need a few of

:31:54.:31:58.

them to go over to Labour, and the Lib Dems won't do as well as last

:31:59.:32:02.

time, only a few to go to Labour and Labour get more votes than last

:32:03.:32:06.

time? Yes, without a doubt. It is about seven points worth. It is the

:32:07.:32:12.

impossible hurdle? That seems there is no churn from last time. You

:32:13.:32:18.

can't simply add 7% to what Labour got last time to produce 36% and

:32:19.:32:25.

think that is a stable outcome. That is in a sense is a Labour strategy,

:32:26.:32:31.

which is hang on to what we have got and a few Lib Dems and get over the

:32:32.:32:36.

line. That may be the case. The Lib Dems got 24% last time and down to

:32:37.:32:45.

6-7%, that is a lot of people to be redistributed to different place, it

:32:46.:32:48.

is not all Labour. The Conservatives may win Liberal Democrat seats too.

:32:49.:32:52.

The Conservative case is they will take Liberal Democrat cases too.

:32:53.:32:56.

When you ask them how will you add seats to what you have after 2010

:32:57.:32:59.

with a Government of austerity. They say they will take seats from the

:33:00.:33:03.

Liberal Democrats too. What is the chance the Tories will be the

:33:04.:33:06.

biggest party on votes and the smaller party on seats? Crumb, that

:33:07.:33:10.

is getting into way too much technical detail for me. I think

:33:11.:33:14.

look there is all to play for, basically. And I think that is why

:33:15.:33:17.

there is a mood of some optimisim here at this conference, there is a

:33:18.:33:21.

feeling that yes, although the odds look stacked against us, we could

:33:22.:33:26.

just scrape through. And as Phil was saying, the great strange is the

:33:27.:33:30.

economic card that they have to play. That is the ace and in David

:33:31.:33:34.

Cameron's speech tomorrow that is what he will be very much trying to

:33:35.:33:42.

focus on. Do you believe in sort of the determinism, the idea that the

:33:43.:33:46.

maths makes something impossible and you can't do it however hard you

:33:47.:33:49.

try. There does seem to be a bit of that around the Tories doesn't it?

:33:50.:33:53.

Only 50% of the population will even think of voting for them? There is a

:33:54.:33:58.

lot of it around Labour too. Because they are absolutely convinced they

:33:59.:34:01.

have a bedrock vote and they get the numbers from the Lib Dems and that

:34:02.:34:05.

means they can't lose. The numbers don't lie, it would be foolish to

:34:06.:34:10.

say the numbers lie and I have a finger in the air that isn't

:34:11.:34:15.

contained in the numbers. I'm not suggesting that, what I'm suggesting

:34:16.:34:19.

which is something that happened in Scotland, you contemplate one

:34:20.:34:21.

outcome and at the last minute you think actually that is not what I

:34:22.:34:25.

meant at all. And you end up just about ending somewhere else. As I

:34:26.:34:30.

said at the start it is foolish prediction. Thank you very much

:34:31.:34:33.

indeed. Now while we have been on air

:34:34.:34:39.

doctors in Texas have confirmed they are treating a patient for Ebola, it

:34:40.:34:42.

is the first case of the disease to be diagnosed in the United States.

:34:43.:34:48.

It is an unidentified patient, being treated in an isolation unit at a

:34:49.:34:51.

hospital in Dallas. We don't know a huge amount. We are joined by

:34:52.:34:58.

Alastair Leithead in Los Angeles. What do we know about this man? We

:34:59.:35:07.

know he's man who flew from like beeria Liberia to the US ten days

:35:08.:35:11.

ago. He was visiting family in this country were the words head of the

:35:12.:35:16.

CDC, the centre for disease, control and prevention, just in the last few

:35:17.:35:19.

minutes. We don't know as yet if he's American. Yet he is the first

:35:20.:35:24.

person to come and develop the symptom, to develop the Ebola virus

:35:25.:35:28.

on American soil. Previously of course there have been aid workers

:35:29.:35:32.

who contracted the virus and brought to the US under very controlled

:35:33.:35:36.

conditions. But this is someone who arrived ten days ago, four days

:35:37.:35:42.

later he started to show symptoms of the Ebola virus and four days after

:35:43.:35:46.

that he was put into hospital, the tests came back a few hours ago

:35:47.:35:49.

proving that he was positive with the Ebola virus. Now of course the

:35:50.:35:53.

press conference has been shown in the last few minutes, it's all on

:35:54.:36:03.

the TV network, the big thing is the reassurance of Americans saying this

:36:04.:36:06.

is not a problem and it can be controlled. The point being Ebola

:36:07.:36:11.

can't be passed on by someone breathing on someone, it is direct

:36:12.:36:15.

contact. It can't be passed on until that person shows symptoms. What the

:36:16.:36:18.

doctors are saying people on the flight from Liberia to the US should

:36:19.:36:22.

be OK. It is the people who have been in contact with this man over

:36:23.:36:26.

the last six days they need to track down. They need to establish whether

:36:27.:36:30.

they had contact with him and then put them into this 21-day period of

:36:31.:36:35.

monitoring and isolation to ensure that they haven't been infected as

:36:36.:36:45.

well. Thank you very much. We leave the Conservative Party Conference

:36:46.:36:48.

now. You might say it is democracy in action over here, but I pass you

:36:49.:36:52.

to Hong Kong where action in support of democracy is under way. It is the

:36:53.:36:55.

start of an important day for the city and Emily is there. We're

:36:56.:37:02.

minutes away from dawn mere and today's crowds are expected to swell

:37:03.:37:06.

still further with that national holiday, which marks the founding of

:37:07.:37:12.

communist China. The protests have grown bigger in the last 72 hours,

:37:13.:37:16.

but become more complicated. Where once they were calling

:37:17.:37:19.

but become more complicated. Where democracy, now we are also calling

:37:20.:37:22.

for an end to the Government that turned teargas on some of its own

:37:23.:37:27.

young people. Today Ban Ki-Moon said he wished Beijing would stop

:37:28.:37:31.

interfering with Hong Kong affairs, Nick Clegg summoned the ambassador

:37:32.:37:35.

of China to London to express his dismay and alarm. But is Beijing

:37:36.:37:40.

listening to any of this? We spent the day with protesters, some of

:37:41.:37:47.

them straight from school. If Beijing thought these protesters

:37:48.:37:50.

were quietly going away, they are not. Noisy but scruplously polite.

:37:51.:37:59.

It is hard to know where the protesters stop and the volunteers

:38:00.:38:05.

begin. But don't mistake affability for insouscience, there is anger

:38:06.:38:10.

here. They call this an awakening for Hong Kong, it is a protest

:38:11.:38:15.

brought out by student, school kids, without great organisation, but from

:38:16.:38:20.

their own free will. It is a protest that has come out for one single

:38:21.:38:24.

reason, that a promise made to them in the basic law by Beijing has been

:38:25.:38:27.

broken. As China watches in the basic law by Beijing has been

:38:28.:38:33.

scenes, captured by drone, no less, it may be regretting its pledge of

:38:34.:38:39.

universal suffrage to Hong Kong. Last month it changed the rules

:38:40.:38:44.

insisting the People's Party would vet everyone who stood for the top

:38:45.:38:53.

job. That is when everyone saw red. They will be worried, anyone would

:38:54.:38:56.

be, with the amount of people on the streets. We say to the Hong Kong and

:38:57.:39:01.

Beijing Government, listen to the people, make a positive response,

:39:02.:39:07.

the ball is in Beijing's court. They played a heavy hand meeting

:39:08.:39:11.

protesters with teargas, this tent was set up in anticipation of

:39:12.:39:16.

trouble. We found Keith there, 16 who defied his parent to come down.

:39:17.:39:20.

The Hong Kong Government is not giving us the freedom that we have.

:39:21.:39:28.

And they threaten our freedom. It seems that a rubicon has been

:39:29.:39:31.

crossed. There are people who say they don't trust their own

:39:32.:39:35.

Government, they are not talking about China, they are talking about

:39:36.:39:39.

Hong Kong. That is crucial for one very specific reason, whilst this

:39:40.:39:48.

protest might be hashtaged #occupycentral, this is powered by

:39:49.:39:53.

the kids of the Tiananmen Square generation. What is Some of them are

:39:54.:39:59.

still in uniform. What is the mood here? We are angry with the

:40:00.:40:03.

Government, how they used the violence against us and how they

:40:04.:40:06.

ignore our feelings. They don't come out and talk to us. The skyscrapers

:40:07.:40:13.

that ring these protests are a constant reminder we are one in one

:40:14.:40:17.

of the most affluence cities in the world. It is no coincidence says the

:40:18.:40:23.

father of democracy Professor Joseph Chan. People also understand that

:40:24.:40:29.

they need a democratic political system instead of just maintaining

:40:30.:40:34.

the status quo because they see a widening of the gap between the rich

:40:35.:40:41.

and poor, they see increasing collision between big business and

:40:42.:40:44.

the Government and they see deteriorating corruption. So they

:40:45.:40:50.

understand that democracy may not be a panaseer but democracy is

:40:51.:40:54.

essential to the solution. But it is not everyone's solution. Yes, there

:40:55.:40:59.

may be thousands on the street, but there are plenty more still at home

:41:00.:41:03.

in the seven million-strong city. They don't all agree that Hong Kong

:41:04.:41:08.

needs change, some thing it will damage the city irreparably, that

:41:09.:41:12.

has offered so many Chinese undreamt of opportunities. But try telling

:41:13.:41:15.

that to the crowd huddled here tonight. The umbrella has become a

:41:16.:41:21.

symbol, originally to fight off pepper spray, then rain. It speaks

:41:22.:41:25.

of a quiet determination and a patience to sit things out come what

:41:26.:41:33.

may. If they are not going away and if Beijing is not backing down, then

:41:34.:41:38.

what next? Joining me now Kelly Yang, the columnist for the South

:41:39.:41:43.

China Morning Post, and a very familiar face among democrats who

:41:44.:41:47.

has been campaigning on this for many years. My question is Emily is

:41:48.:41:53.

Beijing listening to this? I hope so, they better do, October 1st is a

:41:54.:41:57.

national day and it is a big deal. Many people will rush into the

:41:58.:42:02.

square where there will be a flag-raising ceremony, and many more

:42:03.:42:05.

people as you can see are congregating. The people want to

:42:06.:42:09.

turn out in big force to tell Beijing we want democracy. Now I can

:42:10.:42:13.

understand that many Governments over the world are speaking out,

:42:14.:42:16.

including Cameron, which is a bit late. But still, so I hope Beijing

:42:17.:42:21.

will listen. Many journalist, foreign journalists have been asking

:42:22.:42:28.

me, are we going to see another Tiananmen Square massacre, I say no

:42:29.:42:32.

way, we won't allow this to happen. You don't think this is good? I

:42:33.:42:37.

think the cause is very good, and I definitely support democracy and I

:42:38.:42:43.

support universal suffrage. I think that the method of causing this much

:42:44.:42:48.

disruption, especially in a place like Hong Kong, heavily dependent on

:42:49.:42:52.

the economy and markets. How would you do it then? I think really you

:42:53.:42:57.

know one of the things that we need to think about appealing to are

:42:58.:43:01.

business leaders. Because Hong Kong is a place that is valuable to China

:43:02.:43:04.

because of the economy. Is there anything in that Emily Lau, they

:43:05.:43:10.

would listen to business leaders? I have been talking to business and

:43:11.:43:13.

political leaders in the Beijing camp saying come on, you speak out,

:43:14.:43:18.

you see there is a lot at stake, your pocket book is at stake. Tell

:43:19.:43:22.

Beijing if you trust the Hong Kong people, allow us to have elections

:43:23.:43:26.

in which the voters can have genuine choice, the sky is not going to

:43:27.:43:29.

collapse. The Hong Kong people will choose someone that can work with

:43:30.:43:32.

Beijing and can defend our interests. Doesn't it worry you even

:43:33.:43:37.

to be thinking in those terms that you need business leaders to sort

:43:38.:43:40.

this out instead of the voices on the street. This is about democracy,

:43:41.:43:44.

this is about a vote? Absolutely, I think there are other ways for

:43:45.:43:47.

people to voice their opinions. I think that when you cause disruption

:43:48.:43:50.

you have to think about whether it is going to work and it is going to

:43:51.:43:53.

be effective. You don't think this is working? This is how Hong Kong

:43:54.:43:58.

has worked for decades, even under British rule, they only listen to

:43:59.:44:01.

the rich. Now Beijing, whenever they want to hear the views of Hong Kong

:44:02.:44:07.

they summon a few dozen richest tycoons and that is it. This is a

:44:08.:44:11.

tragedy and the British never helped us to have democracy. So, OK, listen

:44:12.:44:18.

to the Beijing elites, the pro--Beijing business people. But

:44:19.:44:22.

these people should stand out now. I think they don't want Hong Kong to

:44:23.:44:25.

descend into chaos either. Where do you think this is going? If you are

:44:26.:44:29.

dealing with a superpower like China, which is not going to back

:44:30.:44:34.

down, and you have this kind of protest. You call them a superpower,

:44:35.:44:38.

but it is your own Government? Think about the President, he won't back

:44:39.:44:42.

down. There is no way he will. How do you know Kelly. I don't think

:44:43.:44:50.

that China if Beijing respects the wishes of the Hong Kong people there

:44:51.:44:53.

would be chaos on mainland China, please don't say that. We cannot

:44:54.:44:59.

assume that Beijing will never back down, it is difficult but not

:45:00.:45:03.

impossible. Have you ever seen an example of Beijing backing down? In

:45:04.:45:10.

2010 when we were talking about political reform, my party proposed

:45:11.:45:15.

an amendment, Beijing said no, the whole thing is set and sealed and

:45:16.:45:19.

delivered, and a week later changed its mind. Maybe there is method in

:45:20.:45:24.

this? You have to see how effective the protest will be, if it is not

:45:25.:45:30.

big enough it will hurt the little business owners, that will hurt the

:45:31.:45:34.

economy, the big guys will survive this, the big shops, the banks they

:45:35.:45:37.

have contingency plans, it is the little business owners who won't

:45:38.:45:41.

make it. If it gets too big you might also have another problem on

:45:42.:45:45.

your hand. It is hard to balance. Kelly Yang and Emily Lau, thank you

:45:46.:45:49.

very much indeed. We will be here watching the protests tomorrow. But

:45:50.:45:52.

we leave you tonight with some of the faces and the images of what

:45:53.:45:57.

they are now calling the Umbrella Revolution, from wherever you are in

:45:58.:45:59.

Hong Kong city, good night. Lots of cloud around overnight. A

:46:00.:46:35.

grey start in the morning, misty too, but not a

:46:36.:46:36.

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