28/10/2015 Newsnight


28/10/2015

What happens if we quit the European Union? Fighting Islamic State on the streets of Turkey. Veteran biographer Robert Caro. With Evan Davis.


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Transcript


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It is the missing question in the great EU debate.

:00:00.:00:00.

Come the vote we will know what it is to remain in the EU,

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Would we exit on terms that mean the grass here is

:00:10.:00:15.

greener, or would we be left worse off than when we started.

:00:16.:00:19.

It was the Prime Minister today in Iceland who raised the danger.

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Norway pays as much per head into the European Union as we do.

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When it comes to migration they actually have many more people

:00:28.:00:30.

coming to live in Norway than we do, and yet while they pay they do not

:00:31.:00:33.

Top Tory Eurosceptic Owen Paterson is here to tell us

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the deal he expects Britain to get if we leave the EU.

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Also tonight Gabriel Gatehouse is on the streets

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of Turkey where the government is cracking down on Islamic State.

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There was an explosion just now and what they are saying is the building

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where the stand-off happened might have been booby-trapped.

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Also tonight, the acclaimed political biographer

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Robert Caro tries to compress his thousands of pages

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If you try to do something and conceal it from the public,

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in the first place they are going to find out about it.

:01:17.:01:18.

if you have not brought them along, in the end you are going to fail.

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Up until now, the Prime Minister has resisted firing the starting gun on

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But maybe he was feeling frustrated, or maybe he just needed

:01:33.:01:37.

a decent speech to deliver on a trip to Iceland.

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Whatever motivated him, he weighed into

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the fledgling argument by raising what is a most important question.

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We know what it means to be IN the EU, but what does OUT mean?

:01:48.:01:53.

We're going to devote quite a bit of the show to this question tonight.

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The Prime Minister is in Iceland, which is not in the EU, but he

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specifically talked about Norway, a country you might have thought was

:02:06.:02:07.

The PM said he didn't think the Norwegian model would be right

:02:08.:02:13.

Well, the BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg, formerly one

:02:14.:02:16.

of our own, is over in Reykjavik, where the prime minister is.

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Laura, on the politics of this, why would he raised this now? If you

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listen very carefully in Reykjavik tonight, you might just hear the

:02:35.:02:39.

sound of a third EU referendum campaign getting off the ground. Not

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an official state campaign, not an official go campaign, but an

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unofficial, different political campaign, the man in charge is David

:02:49.:02:57.

Cameron. His complex campaign is he wants to stay and get a better deal,

:02:58.:03:02.

if not pack up and leave. He is putting this message forward now

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because although Downing Street denies there is any panic there is a

:03:06.:03:09.

sense the momentum has been with those who would like the UK to exit

:03:10.:03:14.

the EU. Downing Street thinks it is time to push back and try to expose

:03:15.:03:18.

some of the problems with the suggestions they are putting

:03:19.:03:22.

forward. That is why he is using this visit to make his case and that

:03:23.:03:27.

is why he seized on the Norway model, the one he claims would not

:03:28.:03:33.

be right for us. Never has so much attention been showered on Norway as

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there has been today. Take this briefly through the substance of his

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argument. This is all about control. Norway and Iceland have a looser

:03:47.:03:50.

friendship with the EU. They trade with the EU and are part of the area

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and can do business with whoever they like, but they have to pay for

:03:56.:03:59.

the privilege and they are still bound by many of the rules and

:04:00.:04:04.

regulations decided in Brussels. If you listen to the Norwegians talk

:04:05.:04:13.

about that... We will hear from the Norwegians in a few minutes. Sorry

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Well, we thought it might be useful to drill down into more detail

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at the different kinds of non-EU membership that are out there.

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First, we'll have to decide what freedoms we want and what

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And secondly, the rest of the EU will have to decide what

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Let's hear from our political editor Allegra Stratton about some

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The Northern lights, you cannot see them from any old spot, you have to

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go north to see them clearly, and so to the Prime Minister suggested

:04:46.:04:50.

today Britain's future relations with the European Union. From

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Iceland to David Cameron warned he could see clearly what Britain's

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future looked alike. Some people have said the Norway option is

:04:59.:05:03.

available to Britain. Norway pays as much per head into the European

:05:04.:05:08.

Union as we do and when it comes to migration and they have many more

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people coming to live and work in Norway than we do, and yet while

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they pay they do not get a say. Is he right? Yes, Norway is often held

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up by Eurosceptics as a prosperous, successful state operating with, but

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not inside, the EU. Like Lichtenstein and Iceland they are

:05:30.:05:33.

members of the European economic area that allows the free movement

:05:34.:05:38.

of goods, services and people and capital within the area of the EU.

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But by signing up they have to adopt much of the regulation of the EU,

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but with less scope to influence that legislation. Eurosceptics have

:05:50.:05:53.

distanced themselves from Norway in the last few days. What about

:05:54.:06:08.

Switzerland? The Swiss are not in the European economic area, but they

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have a series of bilateral agreements with the EU and as

:06:12.:06:13.

members of the European free trade area they get favourable trading

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relations. Boris Johnson has suggested we could join with the

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Swiss and make a new outfit here of the European Union with free trade

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with the European Union, but the right to help set the terms of that

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trade. Critics say this only allows access to parts of the single market

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and would exclude our financial services sector and Switzerland

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still pays into the EU budget. There are so many different options and

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all of them are worse than what we currently have. We have the best of

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both worlds, we get to sit around the table and we have a say and all

:06:45.:06:49.

of these other options would leave us worse off. We would pay and we

:06:50.:06:53.

would have no say over the rules we would have to implement. I then not

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other options? Turkey is an outsider to the EU, but they have struck free

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trade agreements, giving them access to the single market, but there is

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small print. This is small print. This only force UK to follow EU

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trade policies. One last option, it is none of the above, but one day we

:07:18.:07:23.

could become a kind of Singapore trade deal with the EU with out EU

:07:24.:07:34.

red tape. Pro-Europeans this welcomes and loosened our client.

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Their business models are different, they have oil and gas which is a key

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part of their economy and comparing one country with another is

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irrelevant. I want to see re-negotiation that works for us in

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the UK. I knew Tory MP disagreeing with her leader's warning issued

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from Iceland. The ad campaign think today David Cameron has blundered.

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By rubbishing Norway they think he has placed himself firmly on the

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inside of the referendum regardless of what he gets back from the EU.

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Why has he done what he has done? One of the arguments that persuade

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voters to stay in the European Union is the idea of Norway, that we would

:08:23.:08:27.

still be subject to the same regulations. That is the strategy

:08:28.:08:32.

behind the Prime Minister's comments today. Lots of examples of how

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Britain could function outside the EU. Northern lights yes, but beacons

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elsewhere as well. The outcome means we could be in a category of our

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own. Nervous voters would like more details.

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A little earlier I spoke to Vidar Helgesen,

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the Norwegian Europe Minister, and I began by asking what he made

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I don't think it was pointing to Norway as such,

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but the Norwegian model of being affiliated with the European Union.

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And it's serving Norway economically well, because being a part

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of the single market is very important to us, to our businesses,

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But it's also a system that has its dilemmas, because we are

:09:22.:09:28.

Over 20 years more than 10,000 EU laws have been imported directly to

:09:29.:09:37.

Because that's necessary for us to be part of the single market.

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We don't sit at the EU decision-making table,

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Is your influence limited, incidentally?

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I mean, you must have an ambassador in Brussels who argues

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Yeah, but our ambassador in Brussels is one of the European ambassadors

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that doesn't sit at the meetings of EU ambassadors.

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But it's better for us to be part of the single market through this

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arrangement than being cut off from the single market,

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There is some discussion and argument about what proportion

:10:08.:10:13.

of European laws are e-mailed, faxed through to you, and you have

:10:14.:10:17.

There's one figure about 9%, others I've seen another figure of 75%.

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Do you know what proportion of law you have to comply with?

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I think the latter is closer to the truth.

:10:30.:10:31.

Any legislation, pertaining to the single market,

:10:32.:10:35.

The Norwegian parliament, for each day

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of sitting over the last 20 years, has adopted five per day EU laws.

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And we do it while we are paying to the European project roughly

:10:47.:10:53.

on a par with what we would do if we had been a member state.

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It's conspicuous in Norway that the public are pretty happy with the

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arrangement, at least there's no demand, there is antipathy towards

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joining the EU, the political class, you included, you are fairly keen.

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What is this gulf between the establishment, the political

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You guys want in, they don't want in.

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In Norwegian politics there is no membership debate looming at all.

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Considering the financial crisis, I don't think anyone would be

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surprised that there is a limited appetite for another

:11:32.:11:33.

The reason why the EEA agreement is commanding

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support in the Norwegian public and in Norwegian politics is simply

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that it's good for business, it's good for the economy.

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You would like Britain not to join you in the European economic area,

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Since the rules are made in Brussels, in the EU,

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and we import them, it's important for us that the rules are sensible.

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And we believe that Britain at the table produces more sensible

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EU rules than if Britain were on the outside, so that's why it's

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in Norway's interest that Britain remains at the table.

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Vidar Helgesen there, the Norwegian Europe Minister.

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But as as we heard earlier in the show, it's not just Norway that

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people cite as versions of what it might look like to be out of the EU.

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Let's get some help from two other places, Singapore and Switzerland.

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On the line from Singapore is David Kuo, who runs

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an investment advice service there, and from Frankfurt, though she's

:12:41.:12:44.

Swiss, is Dr Anne van Aaken who teaches at St Gallen University.

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I am going to start with you. You are in Switzerland, Switzerland is a

:12:54.:13:01.

very affluent place, by your observation does the Swiss

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relationship with the EU work? Well, I would say it would be difficult

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for Britain to repeat the Swiss model. It is a very special model

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and it has to be understood historically by Switzerland not

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wanting to join the EU and trying to have bilateral treaties. Since

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Switzerland is not in the European economic areas, it has to make a

:13:30.:13:35.

treaty for everything where it wants to have economic relationships with

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the EU. That is where we currently stand. It is more complicated than

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the Norwegian one, but it gives them more flexibility, like an a la carte

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menu rather than a fixed meal? That is right, but services are not in,

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which is difficult for Switzerland. Switzerland has quite a strong

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financial industry sector, so that is difficult for them. The EU

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basically negotiated that if one treaty is not adhered to, and the

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Swiss had a referendum in 2014 concerning the free movement of

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persons, then all the other treaties can be terminated as well. So in a

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way even though they are bilateral treaties, on its single issue it is

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a package. You do not take the whole package. All or nothing. Thank you,

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that is very useful. Singapore is not directly comparison to the UK,

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but the suggestion is the model of being an enterprise Hub, a kind of

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offshore almost halved against a large continent, it certainly seems

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attractive to some people. How attractive do you think and how easy

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would it be for the UK to become like Singapore?

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We are part of a free-trade organisation, free trade region here

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for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. -- it is called the

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Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Part of a bigger

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organisation but at the same time there are big differences between

:15:22.:15:26.

that and the European Union. 80% of the trade done by Singapore is

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outside and only 20% is within those nations. Singapore does work, it's a

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very successful economy. For it to work what do you need? Singapore

:15:41.:15:44.

taxes are very low, much lower than the UK ones. It's certainly one

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area, as far as Singapore is concerned we have one of the lowest

:15:51.:15:54.

corporation taxes, no capital gains tax whatsoever and no inheritance

:15:55.:15:58.

tax, it's very attractive for corporations who want to come here,

:15:59.:16:02.

financial institutions and wealthy individuals. Those people who want

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to pass on their wealth to the next generation. As far as the UK is

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concerned, it needs to copy that model. Reduce its taxes to an

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it'll start to attract corporations and financial institutions which

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they already have. It'll encourage those companies to

:16:18.:16:26.

stay within the UK and not think about moving elsewhere. Thanks

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Here with me now is the former Conservative cabinet minister and

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you've been listening to the whole caboodle of options and things,

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which is your favourite by the way? My favourite option is the British

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option, we are the fifth largest economy in the world, we have a huge

:16:47.:16:51.

deficit with our European neighbours up to ?70 billion per year, 5

:16:52.:16:55.

million Europeans they'll want to do a deal with us. What was useful

:16:56.:17:00.

about your clips, it shows there are different solutions for different

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countries. What was interesting, none of them missed, they almost,

:17:04.:17:08.

actually, key movement, towards global regulation, global

:17:09.:17:12.

government. What you missed out is that we want to get our seat back on

:17:13.:17:17.

those global bodies. The Prime Minister set out five questions he

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thought were important today. I thought we could go through some of

:17:21.:17:22.

them quickly, because they are useful. Would the UK still be

:17:23.:17:28.

obliged to follow EU rules on free movement of people? In your opinion,

:17:29.:17:32.

if we're out, would free movement apply? It depends what the final end

:17:33.:17:38.

solution is. I'm asking what your preferred solution would be. The

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Treaty of Rome was free movement of labour and the Treaty of Lisbon free

:17:44.:17:48.

movement of people. What I'd like to see is laws made in our own

:17:49.:17:53.

parliament so we get back control of our immigration policy. Not free

:17:54.:17:59.

movement? Not like Norway. It has to be negotiated. Will the UK be forced

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to pay an EU subscription fee like Switzerland and Norway? It depends

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what the end solution is. I don't know where these figures have come

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from. The figures I've seen, Norway pays about half. You would expect

:18:13.:18:22.

the UK to or not? It all depends what the end solution is, I want to

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get back to the global level, I want Britain to take a 4 seat on the WTO.

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Norway, which was missed out by their minister, chairs the global

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body committee... A global committee on fish. They export 3 billion euros

:18:41.:18:45.

of fish. It isn't an answer to the Prime Minister's question. What the

:18:46.:18:49.

UK pay the EU 's abduction? I don't want to hear about fish, I want to

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hear about the UK subscription under the scenario you are advocating, yes

:18:55.:18:58.

or no, it's quite simple. You might not want to hear about fish but

:18:59.:19:03.

fishermen do. We've talked to you about fish before and Norway, I can

:19:04.:19:08.

remember sitting over there talking. And you interrupted me last I'm like

:19:09.:19:12.

you are interrupting now. I won't interrupt if you answer the question

:19:13.:19:15.

about the EU subscription, will we pay one or not?

:19:16.:19:18.

I want to move to a global system where we have full representation as

:19:19.:19:26.

a full nation on a global bodies. We are represented by a 28 of a

:19:27.:19:30.

commissioner, highly unsatisfactory as we move to global regulation. The

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EU is retreating as a law creator, the global bodies moving. You have

:19:36.:19:39.

to think out of your EU box. Is it an answer to the question will see

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you -- have you answer the question the public will read into it what

:19:48.:19:52.

they want. You are presuming we will be in the EU. The EU is going to

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leave us. I've explained a scenario and you fail to tell me whether

:19:58.:20:00.

we'll pay a subscription, I'm thinking your answer is no. You are

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assuming we'll be in something called the EU. The EU is leaving us.

:20:05.:20:09.

It won't be like Norway, we won't pay a subscription? We'll be getting

:20:10.:20:16.

our seat back. Would we be in a trade deal with EU, would we be in

:20:17.:20:22.

the trade steel if it's negotiating with other nations? Yes, I said that

:20:23.:20:31.

already, we have a huge... We'll come up with a solution in

:20:32.:20:35.

everybody's interest. What if they set terms which you don't like for

:20:36.:20:40.

us to have access to the market? The market? Reply minister says 31 other

:20:41.:20:44.

governments and parliaments, will they all agree to the UK's new

:20:45.:20:48.

relationship? The procedure is they go into a locked room, decides the

:20:49.:20:52.

treaty that will determine our relationship with them, and they

:20:53.:20:56.

handed to us and we take it or leave it. We are getting outvoted now,

:20:57.:21:01.

we've been beaten in the council 55 times the last few years. We are

:21:02.:21:05.

constantly being outvoted, was out voted when I was the secretary for

:21:06.:21:13.

Defra. I'm saying we have an unsatisfactory deal now which costs

:21:14.:21:17.

a fortune, we have laws and regulations imposed upon us, we

:21:18.:21:21.

don't have our full seat on the global bodies. I know I know. Which

:21:22.:21:27.

I'm very keen on. We will get our full roll on that and it changes the

:21:28.:21:34.

relationship completely. We would love you to have access to our

:21:35.:21:37.

single market, full access, we don't want a race to the bottom on labour

:21:38.:21:41.

standards, to have full access to the single market you will have two

:21:42.:21:45.

basis, that and the other, part of social Charter. Social chapter. As

:21:46.:21:51.

part of the condition. Do we say yes or no? No, I'm looking to a global

:21:52.:21:57.

system. You said... It's inconceivable we won't come to an

:21:58.:22:02.

unsatisfactory trade deal when we have a 70 billion deficit when 5

:22:03.:22:06.

million of their citizens depend on us for trade, we'll come to a deal

:22:07.:22:11.

with them. What proportion of their GDP is exported to us? Depends on

:22:12.:22:14.

the countries, somewhere like Germany is higher. 3%. It varies

:22:15.:22:22.

dramatically between the countries. The key factor for the last few

:22:23.:22:26.

months, each of the last 12 months, sales outside the EU to the rest of

:22:27.:22:29.

the world have increased faster than EU sales. It's still important we

:22:30.:22:34.

have a satisfactory trade deal with them, but we get our rollback on the

:22:35.:22:44.

world bodies and we galvanise the Commonwealth... It's the breakdown

:22:45.:22:48.

in the movement to world free trade that is causing so many problems

:22:49.:22:52.

around the world. Have you answer the question, I'm not sure you have,

:22:53.:22:56.

about how we establish a trade relationship with them that gives

:22:57.:23:00.

access to their market without them dictating some of those terms. 31 of

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them, 26 of them, plus five EAA members. Varies us. -- there is them

:23:07.:23:15.

and there is us. In that they have interest in coming to a satisfactory

:23:16.:23:19.

deal with us. People on your side of the argument have said, we can't

:23:20.:23:23.

possibly think about a treaty change option under David Cameron.

:23:24.:23:28.

Renegotiation, without it being signed in blood and ratified before

:23:29.:23:32.

we have to vote on it. Are you going to ask us when we come to the

:23:33.:23:38.

referendum to vote on and out prospectus as they as the one you've

:23:39.:23:42.

been describing tonight? I'm not being very casual, I have a clear

:23:43.:23:46.

view we want a new relationship as they move away from us and form

:23:47.:23:51.

their new country. Hang on! I want a relationship based on trade and

:23:52.:23:55.

cooperation, which is what we voted to join in 9075. Allied to that,

:23:56.:24:01.

want to make our own laws in our own parliament and have our own

:24:02.:24:03.

full-time or presented on the global bodies. -- we voted to join in 1975.

:24:04.:24:10.

Yet our role on the global bodies. It'll cascade down through the EU.

:24:11.:24:15.

I'm hearing what you want but I'm not clear, if they say they don't

:24:16.:24:20.

want the relationship you are describing, what you can do about

:24:21.:24:24.

it. I think what you are saying is we should trust that in the end

:24:25.:24:27.

it'll be all right, they won't play hardball. But you seem to forces

:24:28.:24:32.

which have ended with irrational hardball playing characters doing

:24:33.:24:35.

stuff that may not be in the interest of both parties. They have

:24:36.:24:40.

a huge interest. Have you seen a divorce case where somebody has

:24:41.:24:43.

acted against their own interests to hurt the other one. It's different

:24:44.:24:46.

when you have a massive deficit going one way. And something

:24:47.:24:52.

integrated across borders. They allow vested interests in Europe

:24:53.:24:55.

that will want trade and cooperation to carry on. -- there are vested

:24:56.:25:02.

interests. We allow them to move into a political interest. We'll

:25:03.:25:05.

never be in the euro, in Schengen, they will form their new country, as

:25:06.:25:09.

they've announced in various reports. It gives us the

:25:10.:25:13.

opportunity, we have the whip hand, to get that through they have to

:25:14.:25:17.

have a treaty change and we have a whip and to ensure we have a totally

:25:18.:25:21.

new relationship with our neighbours based on trade, cooperation and

:25:22.:25:25.

making our own laws in our own parliament. Owen Paterson, thanks

:25:26.:25:26.

very much indeed. Well, from a discussion

:25:27.:25:29.

about a Britain off one side of the EU, to a country sitting just

:25:30.:25:32.

off the opposite side, Turkey. It's in a far less temperate zone

:25:33.:25:35.

of course, a Syrian war and IS on its doorstep and a long-running

:25:36.:25:38.

struggle with Kurdish separatists. Earlier this month, suicide bombers

:25:39.:25:41.

in the capital Ankara killed more than a hundred people at a rally

:25:42.:25:43.

of a pro-Kurdish opposition party. A ceasefire with the Kurdish

:25:44.:25:47.

militant group All in all, it's not been

:25:48.:25:49.

an easy time for Turkey, Elections in June were inconclusive,

:25:50.:25:53.

so the country votes again Gabriel Gatehouse has been there

:25:54.:26:00.

and found a country struggling to insulate

:26:01.:26:03.

itself from the war on its border. Turkey, a bulwark of stability

:26:04.:26:06.

on the edge of Europe. A buffer against the chaos

:26:07.:26:24.

of the Middle East. The violence that surrounds

:26:25.:26:27.

this country is now beginning Now Turkey is suffering from

:26:28.:26:31.

terrorism attacks because of Syria. Because terrorists,

:26:32.:26:40.

both PKK and Isis, are using Syria, an uncontrollable area,

:26:41.:26:45.

for practising terrorism attacks. In the run-up to Sunday's election

:26:46.:26:52.

there have been deadly bombings blamed variously on Islamic State,

:26:53.:26:54.

or President Erdogan's

:26:55.:26:56.

message is this: Only a strong majority for his party

:26:57.:27:04.

can hold the country together. For such attacks,

:27:05.:27:08.

like tourist attacks, the people of Erdogan is an important

:27:09.:27:11.

figure to unite this nation. Some people have been suggesting it

:27:12.:27:22.

might have been the government itself that was

:27:23.:27:24.

behind the attack in Ankara. I think it is really dangerous

:27:25.:27:26.

to play sectarian politics and to In this atmosphere

:27:27.:27:31.

of mutual suspicion Turkey is once again at war with the Kurds, a war

:27:32.:27:43.

fuelled by the conflict in Syria. In the Kurdish dominated

:27:44.:27:46.

East, Turkish jets are bombing PKK targets in response to attacks

:27:47.:27:50.

by the Kurdish militants. But now a new threat has injected

:27:51.:27:59.

itself into this toxic conflict, On a residential street

:28:00.:28:02.

in the city of Diyarbakir we arrived as security forces carried out

:28:03.:28:12.

a raid on an IS safe house. This was more a battle than

:28:13.:28:16.

a shoot out, police using armoured They have implanted IS

:28:17.:28:20.

into our midst, this man told me, they are only conducting this

:28:21.:28:27.

operation now because They are trying to use IS to

:28:28.:28:30.

put pressure on Kurdish people. There is a car reversing out

:28:31.:28:40.

of the area. They are saying the building

:28:41.:28:47.

where the stand-off happened Two policemen were killed as well

:28:48.:28:49.

as seven militants. Turkey has long allowed

:28:50.:28:55.

Islamic State fighters to use IS oppose the Syrian regime,

:28:56.:28:58.

IS are also a barrier to Kurdish But now some of those IS

:28:59.:29:05.

fighters are coming back. In places eastern Turkey looks

:29:06.:29:14.

like a country at war, but these soldiers are not here because

:29:15.:29:18.

of a threat from Islamic State. They are here because Kurdish

:29:19.:29:21.

militants have taken over swathes turning whole neighbourhoods

:29:22.:29:23.

into so-called autonomous zones. This is essentially a rebel zone, an

:29:24.:29:32.

area that is not under the control of the Turkish security forces, it

:29:33.:29:35.

is under the control of rebel youths They have strung up tarpaulin to

:29:36.:29:38.

shield themselves from the view There are signs here

:29:39.:29:54.

of recent heavy battles, pockmarked The group's leaders are shy

:29:55.:29:58.

of the cameras. They did not want us to film their

:29:59.:30:06.

weapons, mostly automatic rifles, They will be coming for us,

:30:07.:30:09.

they will use tanks and mortars. They want to clear everyone out

:30:10.:30:18.

of this neighbourhood then hit it Emboldened by their fellow Kurds

:30:19.:30:21.

in Syria who have carved out a vast territory along Turkey's southern

:30:22.:30:27.

border, these Marxist guerillas now sense perhaps new momentum

:30:28.:30:31.

in their decades-old struggle. We shall overcome

:30:32.:30:37.

and we will resist to the end. We can take the violence of

:30:38.:30:41.

the state no longer. There are people who are digging

:30:42.:30:50.

these trenches who do not want to be identified, they are all

:30:51.:30:53.

covering up their faces. These are young, armed men who are

:30:54.:30:56.

affiliated with the PKK, the Kurdish rebel group, and one

:30:57.:30:59.

thing is for sure, this is now Not everyone here wants to pick a

:31:00.:31:03.

fight with Turkey's powerful army. These women told us all they want is

:31:04.:31:15.

peace, In his office the local head

:31:16.:31:17.

of president Erdogan's AKP party showed me the bullet holes where PKK

:31:18.:31:27.

militants fired at his window. As Kurdish fighters grow

:31:28.:31:32.

in strength across the border in Syria, Mohammed Akar feels

:31:33.:31:36.

this rebellion could become President Erdogan has presided

:31:37.:31:39.

over a decade of stability Sunday's election is essentially

:31:40.:32:08.

a rerun. In June his AKP party failed to get

:32:09.:32:13.

a majority. His critics accuse him of becoming

:32:14.:32:15.

increasingly authoritarian. Over the past few weeks, many towns

:32:16.:32:21.

in the East have been under curfew. In Diyarbakir's old town we found

:32:22.:32:26.

people venturing out for the first time after special forces were sent

:32:27.:32:30.

in to quell clashes between Kurdish All this commotion is because there

:32:31.:32:32.

is a food distribution here, they are handing out supplies to people

:32:33.:32:47.

who are affected by the clashes that happened in these narrow alleyways

:32:48.:32:51.

just a few days ago. All of this is organised

:32:52.:32:55.

by a pro-Kurdish opposition party which is capitalising

:32:56.:32:59.

on the anger among people who were prevented from getting to work or

:33:00.:33:03.

even to the shops. We had nothing to eat or drink,

:33:04.:33:09.

this woman says. She told me her daughter had gone to

:33:10.:33:13.

the mountains, President Erdogan came to power

:33:14.:33:17.

as a champion of the oppressed, His base is

:33:18.:33:25.

among religious conservatives and Islamists, empowering people who

:33:26.:33:30.

once felt marginalised by Turkey's Now there are those who feel

:33:31.:33:35.

the pendulum has swung too far In 2012 Gurbuz Chapan was one

:33:36.:33:42.

of dozens of people implicated in He insists he supports change

:33:43.:33:48.

only at the ballot box, but he This election is essentially

:33:49.:33:55.

a referendum on the limits Strong leadership has kept Turkey

:33:56.:34:29.

stable amid the chaos of the Middle East, but Erdogan's

:34:30.:34:36.

opponents believe that by giving space to Islamic State

:34:37.:34:39.

and by re-engaging in conflict with If you love biographies,

:34:40.:34:43.

you may well love the American His majestic history of the life

:34:44.:34:54.

of US president Lyndon B Johnson is It's considered one

:34:55.:34:59.

of the most important political His other monumental work was

:35:00.:35:03.

about the man who shaped That one's forty years old now,

:35:04.:35:08.

but has just been published here. From afar, Johnson and Moses may not

:35:09.:35:14.

seem the obvious lives to devote more than a thousand pages to, but

:35:15.:35:17.

Mr Caro has fans in high places. The Chancellor is one of them,

:35:18.:35:21.

Gordon Brown too. Because his books are really

:35:22.:35:24.

about power and its use. Well, it's amazing to me, thank you,

:35:25.:35:37.

England! But I think part

:35:38.:35:40.

of the reason is that it's not really only about Robert Moses, it's

:35:41.:35:43.

about political power, how you get political power, what is political

:35:44.:35:47.

power, how can it shape our lives? Moses was interesting to me because

:35:48.:35:52.

he was never elected to anything. We live in America in a democracy

:35:53.:35:57.

where power is supposed to come from Here is a man who was never elected

:35:58.:36:01.

to anything, he had more power than anyone who was, more than any mayor,

:36:02.:36:07.

more than any governor, more than And he held this power for 44 years,

:36:08.:36:10.

it was half a century, So I set out to do,

:36:11.:36:17.

how did he get it? Can we talk a little

:36:18.:36:22.

about biography? I mean, one of the dangers of

:36:23.:36:25.

biography, particularly the thorough biographical style of which you are

:36:26.:36:28.

the master, perhaps it puts too much weight on the individuals, too much

:36:29.:36:33.

weight on Moses shaping New York. Not enough on historical forces,

:36:34.:36:37.

motorcars, the ability to build tall buildings, whatever

:36:38.:36:42.

the architectural trend was. Is that

:36:43.:36:45.

a danger with big biographies? Well, I think it's a danger,

:36:46.:36:50.

I think in my particular case the danger is mitigated because I'm

:36:51.:36:54.

not interested in writing... I never thought

:36:55.:36:59.

of writing a biography. Just to write the life

:37:00.:37:02.

of a famous man. I never had the slightest

:37:03.:37:05.

interest in doing that. I started The power broker because,

:37:06.:37:11.

I think I mentioned, no one seem to So it started on one part as

:37:12.:37:14.

an examination of political power. How did he create this power

:37:15.:37:20.

outside the electoral process? It's a study of power, that's why I

:37:21.:37:26.

call it The Power Broker. With Johnson, what attracted me

:37:27.:37:39.

to Johnson, was the same thing. It was his Senate years more

:37:40.:37:41.

than the presidential years. And he continues his informal Texas

:37:42.:37:44.

style, I said, my God,

:37:45.:37:45.

he did something no one else has If I can sit and figure out how he

:37:46.:37:50.

got the power to do that, and explain it to people, you have

:37:51.:37:56.

to figure it out and you've got to explain it, then that really is

:37:57.:37:59.

something you feel you are adding to people's understanding of political

:38:00.:38:05.

power, that they should understand. If you don't know what you want to

:38:06.:38:10.

do with your power, you are not really going to be very

:38:11.:38:13.

useful, are you? And if you don't have

:38:14.:38:15.

the ability to work the system, you are not going to be very useful, you

:38:16.:38:18.

need both of those, do you or not? You know, Johnson is really very

:38:19.:38:22.

interesting, he has to give this speech for Congress three days

:38:23.:38:25.

after Kennedy is assassinated. Speech writers are gathered

:38:26.:38:30.

around the table. He comes down to see what

:38:31.:38:33.

they are turning out. They say, well, whatever we do,

:38:34.:38:36.

don't touch civil rights, don't mention civil rights,

:38:37.:38:39.

the Southerners control Congress. They are going to stop all your

:38:40.:38:42.

legislation, don't antagonise them. It's a noble cause,

:38:43.:38:45.

but a lost cause. In a speech he says,

:38:46.:38:48.

my first priority is to pass Now,

:38:49.:38:56.

I wonder whether the techniques used by Johnson, skulduggery you might

:38:57.:39:02.

call some of it, the techniques used by Johnson, whether they created

:39:03.:39:08.

a disenchantment with politics? Today, the word is authenticity

:39:09.:39:13.

that we want in our politicians. I wonder whether the kind of cynical

:39:14.:39:18.

manipulation of people like Johnson Yes, the answer to your question is

:39:19.:39:22.

he created something called Everyone realised,

:39:23.:39:28.

no one could believe, what he said. Now, when I hear

:39:29.:39:38.

the telephone tapes, I hear him telling his advisers, I've decided

:39:39.:39:42.

to send 75,000 men to Vietnam. He says, but let's say

:39:43.:39:46.

the policy hasn't changed. Remember that in everything you say,

:39:47.:39:53.

we haven't changed the policy. But everyone knew he had changed

:39:54.:39:57.

his policy. For years he would say,

:39:58.:39:59.

I see the light, we are winning. The disenchantment with the American

:40:00.:40:02.

presidency, in your words, not believing what

:40:03.:40:09.

the president tells us, that really Before Watergate, we think of it

:40:10.:40:12.

as starting at Watergate. If people say it started with

:40:13.:40:18.

Watergate, they don't remember it started before Watergate,

:40:19.:40:23.

it started with Vietnam. You are almost 80 years old,

:40:24.:40:26.

and you've said, if anything should happen to you, that means you can't

:40:27.:40:29.

finish this fifth volume, you don't want anyone else to finish it or

:40:30.:40:36.

take the work and complete it. I want everything, you know,

:40:37.:40:40.

that I've done under my name to be If someone else wants to write about

:40:41.:40:58.

Lyndon Johnson, of course many people do, they are writing about

:40:59.:41:06.

him now, that's fine, but I don't... You know, there are others, like

:41:07.:41:09.

Manchester's biography of Churchill, People who read that book say, this

:41:10.:41:11.

isn't William Manchester's writing. If you had to encapsulate

:41:12.:41:16.

the one lesson that Johnson teaches You'd better bring the public

:41:17.:41:18.

along with you. Like on Vietnam, if you try to do

:41:19.:41:22.

something and conceal it from the public, in the first place they

:41:23.:41:29.

are going to find out about it. If you haven't bought them along,

:41:30.:41:32.

in the end you are going to fail.

:41:33.:41:37.

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