10/03/2016 Newsnight


10/03/2016

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Kirsty Wark. Can Osborne balance the books? Plus Saudi arms sales and scientists for Brexit.


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European Central Bank pulls out all the stops to turn around the

:00:08.:00:14.

Eurozone, how is Britain placed? If our economy falters, how

:00:15.:00:18.

well-equipped is the Chancellor to meet his own debt targets? With the

:00:19.:00:23.

UK budget due next week, we will be asking just how the economy is

:00:24.:00:28.

bearing up. Becky Watts, the Bristol teenager, murdered by her own

:00:29.:00:31.

stepbrother. Tonight, we speak to her father in the first interview

:00:32.:00:36.

since his harrowing memoir. Do you still want him dead? If they were

:00:37.:00:45.

going to hang him, I would pull the lever so no one else would have to

:00:46.:00:49.

carry that guilt. The government is under increasing pressure over arms

:00:50.:00:54.

sales to Saudi Arabia. British weapons being used to kill civilians

:00:55.:00:58.

in Yemen and is the British government breaking the law? And the

:00:59.:01:02.

60 year mystery of the missing France is broken -- Wickham nude

:01:03.:01:11.

solved and seen for the first time on British television. Good evening.

:01:12.:01:18.

The European Central Bank sent a clear signal today

:01:19.:01:20.

that it is somewhat perturbed by the failure of the Eurozone

:01:21.:01:23.

to deliver growth, and in an attempt to spark it, cut all three

:01:24.:01:26.

of its interest rates, setting a lending rate to zero

:01:27.:01:28.

interest, and droppping the deposit rate further into

:01:29.:01:30.

The ECB also annouced a bond-buying spree,

:01:31.:01:35.

All this is in turn likely to play into George Osborne's Budget

:01:36.:01:41.

calculations next Wednesday with UK economic growth hardly

:01:42.:01:43.

Here's our Policy Editor Chris Cook whose had his calculator out.

:01:44.:01:52.

How much room is there in George Osborne's red box?

:01:53.:01:56.

The bad news for the Chancellor is that economists

:01:57.:02:00.

expect he's not going to have a lot of space for rabbits.

:02:01.:02:03.

Indeed, today, the European Central Bank launched a massive

:02:04.:02:07.

package of measures, because the European economy,

:02:08.:02:09.

our trading doorstep, is in serious trouble.

:02:10.:02:13.

The Chancellor himself issued some warnings,

:02:14.:02:14.

The economy is smaller than we thought, in Britain.

:02:15.:02:22.

We also know that global risks are growing and

:02:23.:02:24.

Britain is not immune to those things.

:02:25.:02:33.

George Osborne sought to trap the Labour Party by setting

:02:34.:02:35.

The idea was to show up their profligacy

:02:36.:02:44.

to contrast with his iron Chancellorship.

:02:45.:02:45.

The slight problem is he may be caught in his own trap.

:02:46.:02:48.

For example, the first of those fiscal rules stated that in each

:02:49.:02:51.

year of this Parliament, the size of our national debt should

:02:52.:02:54.

grow more slowly than the size of our economy.

:02:55.:02:56.

Put another way, the national debt, measured as a share of GDP,

:02:57.:02:59.

should fall in each year of this Parliament.

:03:00.:03:02.

Now, looking at this graph of national debt as a share of GDP,

:03:03.:03:05.

you can see how, as the financial crisis hit, our national

:03:06.:03:08.

It shoots up, doubling from under 40%

:03:09.:03:11.

Mr Osborne's plan is that in the years ahead, we will start

:03:12.:03:16.

chiselling away at that, by having our economy

:03:17.:03:18.

This man was a forecaster at the Office for Budget

:03:19.:03:23.

He was a senior economist who worked out the Chancellor's room

:03:24.:03:28.

for manoeuvre and he is still quite close to the spreadsheets.

:03:29.:03:30.

The government is quite likely to miss its fiscal rules.

:03:31.:03:35.

The reason is, it only ever had a very small margin, anyway.

:03:36.:03:37.

What it needed was for debt to rise less

:03:38.:03:40.

It looks like there is bad news on both fronts.

:03:41.:03:50.

It looks like there is a little more borrowing and GDP growth to be quite

:03:51.:03:54.

That small margin of falling in the debt ratio is looking

:03:55.:03:58.

George Osborne's second fiscal rule state

:03:59.:04:04.

that in the year 2019-2020, the state should take more in taxes

:04:05.:04:06.

In short, it should run a fiscal surplus.

:04:07.:04:10.

That is a surprisingly rare event in fiscal history.

:04:11.:04:15.

His problem is, though, that the single-most important

:04:16.:04:18.

determinate of whether he will make that target is economic growth.

:04:19.:04:20.

That is something which isn't going his way.

:04:21.:04:27.

Developments since the Autumn Statement probably moved slightly

:04:28.:04:31.

The bad news has probably been slightly larger

:04:32.:04:40.

That means he may be facing either a smaller surplus in 2019 Ball

:04:41.:04:44.

That means he may be facing either a smaller surplus in 2019 or perhaps

:04:45.:04:48.

having the package of measures in the budget that he would

:04:49.:04:50.

Economic modellers would disagree on how far we can expect

:04:51.:04:54.

economic activity to fall short to how far the Chancellor must move.

:04:55.:04:57.

We are going into 2016 with what looks like

:04:58.:05:00.

The good news for the Chancellor is that some of that will be made up

:05:01.:05:09.

by lower interest rates with the Bank of England

:05:10.:05:11.

That means the cost of borrowing is lower and the Government

:05:12.:05:16.

It could roughly offset borrowing this year.

:05:17.:05:21.

But looking ahead, things don't look quite so good.

:05:22.:05:23.

The economy is likely to grow bit more

:05:24.:05:25.

slowly, fewer tax receipts flowing around for the Chancellor to spend.

:05:26.:05:30.

That could leave another ?5,000,000- ?10 billion black hole in the public

:05:31.:05:33.

He may feel he needs to correct that.

:05:34.:05:36.

It's important to also consider the shadow of the European

:05:37.:05:38.

Remember, first of all, that the Chancellor would

:05:39.:05:42.

like you to vote for the In Campaign and that he won't want you to be

:05:43.:05:46.

irritated with him in the next few months.

:05:47.:05:48.

That might make him less radical than he

:05:49.:05:50.

Remember, also, that the Chancellor will have less

:05:51.:05:53.

support from his backbenchers, half of whom would like him to lose

:05:54.:05:56.

the European referendum, than he otherwise might.

:05:57.:06:01.

Both of these things hint that he might be more timid

:06:02.:06:04.

in this budget than he otherwise might be.

:06:05.:06:10.

The Chancellor's fiscal mandate requires him to have a surplus

:06:11.:06:12.

in 2019-2020, obviously we are only now in the budget of 2016.

:06:13.:06:15.

There are another five fiscal statements between now

:06:16.:06:17.

and when he has to achieve his surplus target.

:06:18.:06:23.

It could be that bigger, more controversial decisions or more

:06:24.:06:30.

significant tax increases or spending cuts get deferred

:06:31.:06:33.

until after the referendum on membership of the EU.

:06:34.:06:35.

In short, the Chancellor may well break a fiscal

:06:36.:06:37.

rule this year, but he has crashed through targets before.

:06:38.:06:39.

In the long term, though, that red box could get

:06:40.:06:42.

What's the most important thing we can take away from it?

:06:43.:06:53.

The thing to dwell on is just how big they went today, they didn't

:06:54.:07:00.

just increase the size of their cue the programme. They attempt to get

:07:01.:07:06.

liquidity cash into the banks, they did not just increase it in size but

:07:07.:07:12.

scope. Did they move into buying corporate bonds? So that people who

:07:13.:07:16.

are not helped in the traditional monetary transmission mechanism can

:07:17.:07:21.

be helped another way. It is worth dwelling on the fact that they will

:07:22.:07:25.

effectively be paying banks to lend out of money. They are ready pulling

:07:26.:07:30.

all the levers they can find. This is a bank in Frankfurt, this is not

:07:31.:07:35.

an institutionally rebellious place. That is how bad things are in

:07:36.:07:39.

Europe, they are really worried about them in Munich continent.

:07:40.:07:40.

Thank you. Joining me now from Paris

:07:41.:07:43.

is Stephanie Flanders, JP Morgan Asset Management's chief

:07:44.:07:48.

market strategist for Britain and Europe and here in the studio

:07:49.:07:50.

Allister Heath deputy editor Good evening, we will talk of next

:07:51.:07:59.

week's budget in a moment. Stephanie, what do you make of the

:08:00.:08:04.

ECB move? Back to growth in Britain and America. Europe still in a slump

:08:05.:08:12.

and ECB steadfast refusal to do anything over the last eight years.

:08:13.:08:16.

It was behind the curve for quite a long time and ironically it is

:08:17.:08:21.

ending up having to innovate and go further than either the UK or the US

:08:22.:08:26.

had to do. Part of what happened today was they had to respond to

:08:27.:08:29.

these people who had been saying in the markets in the last few months

:08:30.:08:33.

that we ran out of things Central banks can do, we have seen the bank

:08:34.:08:37.

of Japan cut interest rates into negative territory and that didn't

:08:38.:08:41.

seem to have a positive effect on confidence. Can the ECB do anything

:08:42.:08:45.

about the fact that inflation is heading lower in Europe and growth

:08:46.:08:50.

is not very strong? They had to show they can do lots of different things

:08:51.:08:59.

while also bringing in lots of technical ways that I won't get into

:09:00.:09:01.

to avoid the downsides of those negative rates. Chris mentioned you

:09:02.:09:03.

have an odd situation where they will pay banks to borrow from them.

:09:04.:09:07.

It shows how weird and dysfunctional we have got in terms of central bank

:09:08.:09:12.

policy. One of the other thing is responding to was the forecast

:09:13.:09:15.

looking worse. They are not expecting inflation to be more than

:09:16.:09:20.

0.1% at the end of this year. They will not get anywhere near their

:09:21.:09:25.

targets. They had to act. They are reaching their limits of what the

:09:26.:09:29.

central bank can do. If this is the limit, it has come pretty quickly

:09:30.:09:32.

after having done pretty well nothing. Is monetary policy enough?

:09:33.:09:37.

I do think so. I am worried about the fact that 80 years after the

:09:38.:09:41.

start of the financial crisis, the great recession, central banks are

:09:42.:09:45.

still having to do that, pump cash into the economy, cut interest rates

:09:46.:09:50.

to zero. It is worrying. It is not just about central banks,

:09:51.:09:54.

governments need to deregulate and kick-start the European economies. A

:09:55.:09:59.

big structural change? They need to tear up the old European model which

:10:00.:10:03.

still hasn't changed. Countries like Italy are stuck in this 15 year long

:10:04.:10:07.

slump. Countries like France need to do much more than what they are

:10:08.:10:12.

currently doing. We need far more deregulation and market-based

:10:13.:10:15.

reforms and more incentives into the system from which we can create an

:10:16.:10:23.

innovate. But not borrowing? No. The solution is not borrowing more.

:10:24.:10:28.

Stephanie, what about government spending more on infrastructure?

:10:29.:10:31.

Germany, for example, Germany holds onto its money tightly. Interesting

:10:32.:10:37.

because you have some parts of the Eurozone probably don't have much

:10:38.:10:40.

scope to borrow a lot more but if you took the Eurozone as a country

:10:41.:10:45.

on average, you would say that fiscal policy was a bit tight given

:10:46.:10:49.

how weak the economy is. It is partly a reflection of the

:10:50.:10:52.

constraints on the Eurozone that they can't impose a kind of optimal

:10:53.:10:57.

Eurozone fiscal policy. We can only look to individual countries. Marry

:10:58.:11:02.

a drag it, the president of the European Central Bank signalled he

:11:03.:11:09.

wanted more policies. Let's turn to the budget next week. It is almost a

:11:10.:11:15.

phoney budget, have you ever imagined anything like it? It will

:11:16.:11:19.

be incredibly weird. This is the kind of budget where chances ought

:11:20.:11:23.

to be taking drastic action, making radical reform is not necessarily

:11:24.:11:28.

popular. But in fact, I can't see the Chancellor doing any of that. He

:11:29.:11:33.

is stuck because growth has slowed. I still think the UK economy is

:11:34.:11:37.

growing, we are not in recession or about to tip into recession but we

:11:38.:11:42.

are growing less quickly than he had hoped for. Fewer tax receipts, quite

:11:43.:11:45.

a few problems in the years ahead. What does he have to do? Not much he

:11:46.:11:52.

can sell, worries about fuel duty. Warriors from his backbenchers. He

:11:53.:11:58.

is not going to reform pensions. I think that is good. He could pick up

:11:59.:12:04.

taxes but that is dangerous -- put up taxes. That is dangerous right

:12:05.:12:09.

now. He needs more growth. You don't get more growth by increasing taxes.

:12:10.:12:13.

As Chris was pointing out, Stephanie, it is this obsession

:12:14.:12:18.

about targets, getting rid of the deficit, making sure debt as a

:12:19.:12:22.

percentage of GDP not falls over the long-term but every year, what is

:12:23.:12:28.

the point of sticking to this? Particular target for having the

:12:29.:12:32.

debt ratio fall over the next few years does seem, to a lot of people,

:12:33.:12:35.

when it was announced, pretty arbitrary. Also, subject to pretty

:12:36.:12:41.

big forecasting errors, which we may see next week. It also encourages

:12:42.:12:47.

him to do fancy techniques just at the last minute that properly don't

:12:48.:12:50.

make much economic sense just to meet that rule. It rather goes

:12:51.:12:53.

against what he said when he introduced these things that he did

:12:54.:12:57.

not want to go back to the Gordon Brown creative approach to fiscal

:12:58.:13:00.

rules. He wanted to have simple things that could be easily measured

:13:01.:13:06.

and understood. You feel like we may actually get quite a lot of fancy

:13:07.:13:10.

engineering to make sure he means what is a bit of a silly and

:13:11.:13:14.

arbitrary rule. I do think it is silly or arbitrary, the Chancellor

:13:15.:13:17.

is right to want to balance the budget in a few years' time. He is

:13:18.:13:22.

right for tighter fiscal policy but the problem is he has not gone far

:13:23.:13:25.

enough and it is not working. The deficit will be too high and that

:13:26.:13:29.

will be a problem because the Chancellor's legacy is meant to be

:13:30.:13:35.

about fixing the public finances. He needs to do that, he needs to do

:13:36.:13:38.

more. Thank you both very much indeed.

:13:39.:13:40.

The murder of your child is unimaginable, but when that

:13:41.:13:43.

murder is committed by your wife's son, whom you have helped to raise

:13:44.:13:46.

and called your son, the layers of trauma are never ending.

:13:47.:13:48.

In Bristol, on 19th February last year, 16-year-old Becky Watts

:13:49.:13:51.

was killed and then subsequently dismembered by her 28-year-old

:13:52.:13:56.

stepbrother Nathan Matthews, aided by his 21-year-old partner,

:13:57.:13:58.

Becky's father Darren was, and still is married to Nathan's mother Anji.

:13:59.:14:05.

They have been together for more than 15 years.

:14:06.:14:07.

Nathan Matthews admitted manslaughter, but not murder,

:14:08.:14:18.

has never apologised and, locked away

:14:19.:14:21.

for 33 years, he has never fully explained

:14:22.:14:23.

While Nathan and Shauna sat at Darren and Anji's house

:14:24.:14:27.

with other relatives and friends, waiting for news of Becky,

:14:28.:14:30.

she was, in fact, dead in the boot of his car, outside.

:14:31.:14:33.

Now, Darren Galsworthy has written a book in which he writes

:14:34.:14:36.

about the guilt he feels at not seeing the signs that

:14:37.:14:39.

in his family unit, something was going badly wrong.

:14:40.:14:41.

I spoke to him today in his first television interview

:14:42.:14:43.

She had a wicked sense of humour. You and Anji were putting your

:14:44.:15:05.

family together as many families are now?

:15:06.:15:06.

It was quite strange how it came about, actually.

:15:07.:15:11.

Regardless of how me and Becky's mother was getting on,

:15:12.:15:14.

I would have them at least three nights a week, every week.

:15:15.:15:21.

When things started to go a bit pear shaped...

:15:22.:15:32.

How did your relationship with Nathan develop?

:15:33.:15:44.

He didn't want anyone interfering with him and his mother.

:15:45.:15:49.

The stage where you and Anji got together, Nathan was 12,

:15:50.:15:56.

Becky was two, suddenly Anji wasn't all his?

:15:57.:16:04.

How did he respond towards the other children?

:16:05.:16:07.

Just went straight up into the bedroom.

:16:08.:16:12.

When he was 19, he came to the house with girls and a car,

:16:13.:16:22.

I thought it was one of his many pranks.

:16:23.:16:25.

He had these young girls, they didn't look any more than 12.

:16:26.:16:30.

I said, "what are you doing Nathan, I don't want them to get past

:16:31.:16:47.

the gate, let alone get into the house.

:16:48.:16:50.

Take them back to wherever you found them".

:16:51.:17:01.

whether it is the parents or whatever.

:17:02.:17:04.

Do you wish now that you had gone further with that?

:17:05.:17:10.

Do you think, looking back on that, there were warning signals?

:17:11.:17:17.

In hindsight, there was a lot of what

:17:18.:17:20.

I have been beating myself up for over a year now.

:17:21.:17:34.

What happened when she became anorexic?

:17:35.:17:41.

It was a really difficult period for us.

:17:42.:17:45.

Sometimes she could not even get up the stairs,

:17:46.:17:59.

How was Nathan's attitude towards her anorexia?

:18:00.:18:03.

When she said, to you I think, Dad, you would not be able to protect me

:18:04.:18:14.

Yes, she did say I was an old fogey and I wouldn't be physically able

:18:15.:18:23.

to stop him and all that sort of thing.

:18:24.:18:26.

Do you think now she was trying to tell you something?

:18:27.:18:33.

When Becky told you something, she told you something.

:18:34.:18:35.

There was no second-guessing or anything like that.

:18:36.:18:39.

If she told to something, you were told.

:18:40.:18:42.

In 2008, when Nathan was 21, he brought

:18:43.:18:47.

Shauna home, she was, I gather was only 15?

:18:48.:18:53.

Yeah, he tried telling me she was 19.

:18:54.:18:55.

I said, "I wasn't born yesterday, son.

:18:56.:18:58.

I am not having someone like that in this house."

:18:59.:19:06.

Don't forget, we fought hard to get our kids out of care.

:19:07.:19:10.

We were not only fighting my ex, we were

:19:11.:19:13.

It sounds like at that stage your relationship

:19:14.:19:20.

with Nathan had become quite difficult?

:19:21.:19:22.

He pushed me beyond what I considered to be a prank.

:19:23.:19:41.

But he was in the house because his mother was Anji?

:19:42.:19:43.

When it became clear that she was missing and people were coming to

:19:44.:19:57.

your house, Nathan and Shauna were also in the house with you?

:19:58.:20:03.

But when, I think it was the family liaison officer,

:20:04.:20:14.

said to you there were questions, you were disbelieving, weren't you?

:20:15.:20:18.

Nine times out of ten it is someone they know.

:20:19.:20:28.

And now it turned out that Nathan and Shauna were in the house and in

:20:29.:20:32.

Yes, 12 feet away from where I was sat, her body was in the back

:20:33.:20:41.

And so they ordered a Chinese takeaway?

:20:42.:20:51.

In the book you say that in court you heard the counsel say that two

:20:52.:20:57.

years earlier Becky had told a friend that Nathan had described

:20:58.:20:59.

in graphic detail how he planned to kill her.

:21:00.:21:02.

Yes, that was the first we heard of it, in the court.

:21:03.:21:08.

I think what I am struggling to understand is,

:21:09.:21:12.

it would have been terrifying, because he apparently

:21:13.:21:14.

told her several times in graphic detail...

:21:15.:21:16.

Yeah, I didn't understand why she didn't come to us.

:21:17.:21:20.

You and Anji are parents to both the murdered and the murderer.

:21:21.:21:34.

Do you think ever of Nathan now as your son?

:21:35.:21:36.

"People often ask me how I feel about Nathan after what he did.

:21:37.:21:41.

Of course, I still love him, he is my son.

:21:42.:21:51.

When you're a mother, you cannot ignore that unconditional

:21:52.:21:53.

love for your children, no matter what they do."

:21:54.:21:56.

How do you deal with Anji's continuing love for Nathan?

:21:57.:21:59.

It is a bit of a sore subject for me.

:22:00.:22:01.

I understand that unconditional love for an infant is fine,

:22:02.:22:10.

but not when they have turned into a monster.

:22:11.:22:14.

I just can't get my head around that.

:22:15.:22:18.

If it was Danny who was the monster, I would have real problems showing

:22:19.:22:23.

I would find that very difficult after something

:22:24.:22:35.

I would, if they were going to hang him, I would pull the lever,

:22:36.:22:43.

so no one else would have to carry that guilt.

:22:44.:22:46.

Since Saudi Arabia entered the conflict in Yemen a year ago

:22:47.:22:55.

with air strikes, there have been repeated calls for Britain

:22:56.:22:58.

to stop selling weapons, including jets and precision bombs,

:22:59.:23:00.

to the Saudis until allegations of war crimes

:23:01.:23:02.

The UN estimates that some 2,800 civilians have been killed.

:23:03.:23:10.

Newsnight has learned that lawyers for Campaign Against The Arms Trade

:23:11.:23:13.

have now begun legal proceedings against

:23:14.:23:15.

the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills.

:23:16.:23:18.

Gabriel Gatehouse is here with the details.

:23:19.:23:25.

Gabriel, you have followed this story and broken this story on many

:23:26.:23:31.

occasions in different ways. What are they calling for? Lead a rate of

:23:32.:23:40.

the government back in November about the sale of arms to Yemen.

:23:41.:23:47.

They have now begun formal legal proceedings. They are seeking a

:23:48.:23:52.

judicial review for the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills'

:23:53.:23:55.

decision to license and export arms to Saudi Arabia. The UK arms

:23:56.:24:00.

exporting criteria safe arms must not be exported if there is a clear

:24:01.:24:06.

risk that the equipment might be used in violation of international

:24:07.:24:16.

humanitarian law. The lawyers say there is a wealth of building up

:24:17.:24:20.

evidence of that from UN panels of experts who talk about widespread

:24:21.:24:22.

systematic attacks was Williams, schools, hospitals, other

:24:23.:24:24.

organisations like Human Rights Watch, and our own reporting from a

:24:25.:24:29.

bottling plant which was struck in Yemen last year. A judge will rule

:24:30.:24:33.

on whether the UK is breaking its own laws essentially, and if it

:24:34.:24:37.

decides that, the lawyers will ask for a prohibition order to prevent

:24:38.:24:43.

them from selling weapons while the secretary of state reviews this. The

:24:44.:24:49.

lawyers say the UK has failed to call for an investigation. That is

:24:50.:24:53.

not quite true. This is what Philip Hammond said Newsnight in November.

:24:54.:24:56.

The Saudis deny that there have been any breaches of international

:24:57.:24:59.

Obviously, that denial alone is not enough.

:25:00.:25:02.

We need to see proper investigations.

:25:03.:25:07.

Now, Philip Hammond has not repeated that assertion in that way since.

:25:08.:25:15.

The Saudis have since launched an investigation, but the critics will

:25:16.:25:19.

say you cannot really investigate yourself on these matters. But

:25:20.:25:24.

Parliament is acting now? Yes, another thing that is happening, the

:25:25.:25:28.

Commons committee on arms export control has launched an enquiry into

:25:29.:25:32.

the use of British arms in Yemen. They will be asking for submissions

:25:33.:25:37.

from all sides. They will be getting the kinds of arguments that we have

:25:38.:25:39.

heard, that we see the lawyers talking about,

:25:40.:25:56.

Human Rights Watch etc. They will also be hearing from the other side,

:25:57.:25:58.

the fact that Saudi Arabia is considered an integral part of

:25:59.:26:00.

security policy, and of course, arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia

:26:01.:26:02.

is Britain's biggest customer for arms sales, ?2.8 billion in sales

:26:03.:26:07.

since the war in Yemen began. The fact is those sales are

:26:08.:26:09.

significantly up since that happened. What is the government

:26:10.:26:14.

saying now? The government says it will not comment on ongoing legal

:26:15.:26:19.

action. It says it supports the work of the committee, it has one of the

:26:20.:26:23.

most robust arms-control regimes in the world. The government is

:26:24.:26:28.

satisfied that existing licences for Saudi Arabia are compliant with the

:26:29.:26:33.

UK licensing criteria. We will see a judge rule on it now. Thank you.

:26:34.:26:40.

When the arguments for remaining or leaving the EU are laid out over

:26:41.:26:44.

the coming weeks who will you trust?

:26:45.:26:45.

Today, Stephen Hawking led 150 Royal Society scientists

:26:46.:26:51.

In a letter to the Times they argued that leaving could be a disaster

:26:52.:26:56.

for science, pointing to the recruitment of researchers

:26:57.:26:58.

We are, the scientists said, "a net receiver of brains,"

:26:59.:27:02.

and they went on, "We take more than ?2 billion more

:27:03.:27:04.

in research funds than we give to other EU members."

:27:05.:27:07.

But that claim was disputed by the grouping

:27:08.:27:09.

Scientists For Britain who insist we put far more in than we take out.

:27:10.:27:12.

Joining me now is Angus Dalgleish, professor of Oncology

:27:13.:27:15.

at St George's Hospital in London, and Khuloud Al-Jamal,

:27:16.:27:22.

Associate Professor of Nanomedicine at King's College London.

:27:23.:27:29.

Angus Dalgleish brings Britain is better out of the EU and Khuloud

:27:30.:27:36.

Al-Jamal things Britain is better remaining in the EU. First of all,

:27:37.:27:42.

Professor Dalglish, scientists within the EU greatly increase the

:27:43.:27:48.

level of EU science as a whole, isn't that true? I cannot do is

:27:49.:27:51.

agree with that, they probably do bet you do not need to be in the

:27:52.:27:54.

European Union for that to be the case. What has been suggested is

:27:55.:28:03.

scientists have always been involved in international cooperation, Seo

:28:04.:28:07.

membership of the EU per se is not what drives International

:28:08.:28:13.

cooperation? I think it enriches it in a way, because we have reached a

:28:14.:28:17.

state where we have science without Borders, we can send our students

:28:18.:28:24.

over there, we can receive students and this is something which cannot

:28:25.:28:28.

always be counted financially. The amount of intellectual input we have

:28:29.:28:32.

into science cannot be substituted or the same if we are out of the EU.

:28:33.:28:40.

If it was a case of leave, not remain, those borders would be back

:28:41.:28:45.

up again? Identical we with that at all. The first thing I would like to

:28:46.:28:51.

say is leading the EU is not about leaving science. It has been

:28:52.:28:55.

misconstrued by the scientists thinking the EU is just a vehicle

:28:56.:29:01.

for science and funding. It is a political union organisation, and it

:29:02.:29:04.

is over and above that, and we do not need to be in that political

:29:05.:29:09.

organisation in order to do science. I would just like to challenge the

:29:10.:29:13.

fact that has been bandied about and was repeated by the scientists in

:29:14.:29:17.

the letter, that we get slightly more back than we put in. I am not

:29:18.:29:24.

going to dispute that, and that is an competitive grants, absolutely.

:29:25.:29:27.

It's convenient lever gets there is an infrastructure fund where we only

:29:28.:29:31.

get 2 billion back out of 54 billion. If you add it up we put far

:29:32.:29:36.

more in than we out. I wonder if you would agree that because of our

:29:37.:29:41.

close relationship with the EU, sometimes it would be perhaps easier

:29:42.:29:47.

to seek an alliance with scientists there, because of the rules which

:29:48.:29:51.

govern and funding, rather than take a risk of going further which might

:29:52.:29:55.

deliver slightly better outcomes or maybe not, but we tend to stay

:29:56.:30:01.

within the boundary because it is easier?

:30:02.:30:05.

There has been a 50% increase in what we produce if we do research on

:30:06.:30:12.

an EU level compared with locally. The amount of impact we get is much

:30:13.:30:18.

higher. We would like to strive as being outstanding, not only within

:30:19.:30:23.

the EU level, but globally. We may lose this if we are out of the EU

:30:24.:30:27.

because there might not be the same interest as now of people coming to

:30:28.:30:33.

the EU. That has to be part of the scaremongering, if we leave the EU

:30:34.:30:36.

it will be a disaster and funding will disappear. It is our own

:30:37.:30:41.

funding to start off with. If we left the EU, we should be

:30:42.:30:45.

responsible for our own funding. We are one of the largest trading block

:30:46.:30:49.

in the wild and we have a lead science for years. What about

:30:50.:30:56.

trialling? -- in the world. Does the EU help trialling? Different rules

:30:57.:31:01.

in and out of the EU. Clinical trials? I became a victim of the

:31:02.:31:07.

clinical trial directive. I would have been going on oblivious, like a

:31:08.:31:11.

lot of other people to the European Union if it hadn't stopped and

:31:12.:31:17.

interfered with my treatment of making bespoke vaccines for my

:31:18.:31:20.

patients. I was suddenly told that when the European directive came in

:31:21.:31:24.

I would be breaking it and I would no longer be allowed to do it. I had

:31:25.:31:27.

become a criminal over night for doing what I was doing. What was it

:31:28.:31:33.

you were doing? I was making vaccines, taking blood from

:31:34.:31:37.

patients' arms, putting the blood, but in it in a machine and getting

:31:38.:31:42.

the presenting cells and making a vaccine of the patients blood and

:31:43.:31:48.

injecting it back in. They determined that the laboratories we

:31:49.:31:53.

were doing it in no longer met Hague pharmaceutical conditions. -- no

:31:54.:31:58.

longer met big. We were stopped. It was utterly ridiculous. A big rule

:31:59.:32:05.

for big pharmacological companies. Do you think there could be

:32:06.:32:11.

reformed? This is one view of one particular type of research. If we

:32:12.:32:17.

are looking at the different research, we are looking at

:32:18.:32:20.

attracting top scientists. I was suggesting perhaps that he is a top

:32:21.:32:26.

scientist and he was restricted in what he was doing. As a supporter of

:32:27.:32:31.

the EU, can you see there needs to be change? There can be some

:32:32.:32:36.

discussions about the regulation and why this has been banded. The

:32:37.:32:41.

solution is not coming out of the EU but may be looking at other ways of

:32:42.:32:43.

solving the problem. Thank you. Cash in the Attic,

:32:44.:32:46.

going, going, gone. It's the reason Antiques Roadshow

:32:47.:32:47.

fans queue to have their heirlooms valued, the off-chance that they've

:32:48.:32:50.

had a fortune under their noses, Something similar could be

:32:51.:32:53.

about to happen in the rarefied world of fine art, as a pair

:32:54.:32:57.

of works by a little-known Irish painter,

:32:58.:33:00.

Tony O'Malley, go on sale They could fetch a respectable

:33:01.:33:02.

five-figure sum, but hidden in their frames is another,

:33:03.:33:08.

unseen work, by one of the 20th century's greatest artists,

:33:09.:33:11.

who set a world record Stephen Smith unravels

:33:12.:33:13.

the 60-year-old mystery of a missing As the art historian Rod Stewart

:33:14.:33:36.

said, every picture tells a story. But sometimes second, secret story.

:33:37.:33:43.

Take these two rather fine paintings by the late Irish Tony O'Malley on

:33:44.:33:51.

sale for up to ?30,000, the pair, at Christies in London. What if a

:33:52.:33:54.

reckless late night news show was to have them taken to a private room

:33:55.:33:59.

and taken from their frames like a pair of oysters? What Dolly lustrous

:34:00.:34:06.

pearl might we find, concealed? Very excited. Such a fascinating story,

:34:07.:34:12.

really. He is such an extraordinary artist. He was an extraordinary man.

:34:13.:34:18.

And here it is. On second thoughts, we mustn't get ahead of ourselves.

:34:19.:34:23.

We need to make a flying visit to post-war London, the seedy Soho of

:34:24.:34:29.

afternoon drinking dens and Francis Bacon, one of our greatest artists.

:34:30.:34:34.

He liked to paint on the onside of a canvas, the primed side. -- wrong

:34:35.:34:43.

side. His trip, Lucien Freud became the most expensive study at auction

:34:44.:34:50.

when it went for ?90 million. At one point in his career at Cornwall,

:34:51.:34:54.

Bacon fell out with a partner and went off in a strop, abandoning a

:34:55.:34:56.

work in progress. As you were. Seen here for the first time is that

:34:57.:35:09.

picture. Figure. Unfinished nude by Francis Bacon. Bacon left Saint I've

:35:10.:35:17.

is in a bit of a hurry, he left the board behind -- Saint Ides.

:35:18.:35:20.

He was renting a studio from the sculptor William Redgrave and his

:35:21.:35:29.

wife. It was his wife who gave Omar Ali a large board to paint on. He

:35:30.:35:38.

cut it in half. -- Tony O'Malley. These two separate boards are more

:35:39.:35:41.

consistent with the dimensions he would work on. Does it make your

:35:42.:35:46.

innards shrivel slightly to see this handwriting across a Bacon? Given

:35:47.:35:51.

what he goes for, now? It adds to the story. It is such an interesting

:35:52.:35:57.

story. The Tom Ali on the front is just as much part of the intrigue as

:35:58.:36:03.

the Bacon on the back. The owner of the bottom half got in touch with

:36:04.:36:07.

the owner of the top half. This is the first time these two works would

:36:08.:36:15.

have ever been shown to the public. One of Bacon's friends and drinking

:36:16.:36:19.

buddies was Michael Pappy at who met him as a young man in Soho. He later

:36:20.:36:27.

became his biographer. It is a very strange sketch. But, I suppose, it

:36:28.:36:32.

might be a portrait of the man he was living with at that time. I see

:36:33.:36:37.

it almost like a sort of carnival figure. Like a Venice Carnival when

:36:38.:36:41.

they had those sort of masks with the big noses. If you and I were to

:36:42.:36:47.

go through the bins at the French house and turn up all of the old

:36:48.:36:52.

beer mats, would we find Bacon Bru on the back? He avoided doing little

:36:53.:36:57.

doodles. He restricted what he let out. He only wanted to let out the

:36:58.:37:01.

pictures he really approved of. And the sketches he would have destroyed

:37:02.:37:07.

but he was also careless. It is on record that he went and bought

:37:08.:37:11.

something for a considerable amount of money at auction in order to

:37:12.:37:18.

destroy it, one of his own works. He was a ruthless self editor. The

:37:19.:37:22.

newly revealed canvas isn't being billed as a Bacon but offered as the

:37:23.:37:27.

two Tom O'Malley's on the other side. Why? As an unfinished work it

:37:28.:37:31.

is very hard to know what people would be willing to spend on it. If

:37:32.:37:36.

someone was interested in the Bacon on the reverse, who knows what

:37:37.:37:41.

people would pay for that? That is the joy of auction, we will find out

:37:42.:37:48.

on the day. Are there still Bacons hidden somewhere? Are there still

:37:49.:37:51.

traces of this extraordinary artist that have yet to surface? Good point

:37:52.:37:54.

to leave it on. Verse that spans 12 centuries

:37:55.:37:58.

is included in a new anthology of Poems That Make Grown Women Cry,

:37:59.:38:01.

a companion volume to Amnesty International's best selling

:38:02.:38:03.

Poems That Make Grown Men Cry. We leave you with Vanessa Redgrave

:38:04.:38:09.

reading from her choice, Wildred Owen's poem

:38:10.:38:12.

"Strange Meeting". It seemed that out of battle

:38:13.:38:16.

I escaped Down some profound dull

:38:17.:38:32.

tunnel long since scooped Through granites which

:38:33.:38:34.

titanic wars had groined. Yet all so there encumbered sleepers

:38:35.:38:38.

groaned, Too fast in thought

:38:39.:38:48.

or death to be bestirred. Then as I probed them,

:38:49.:38:52.

one sprang up, and stared, With piteous recognition

:38:53.:38:57.

in fixed eyes, Lifting distressed

:38:58.:39:04.

hands, as if to bless. And by his smile,

:39:05.:39:10.

I knew that sullen hall. By his dead smile,

:39:11.:39:16.

I knew we stood in Hell. "I am the enemy you

:39:17.:39:25.

killed, my friend. I knew you in this dark:

:39:26.:39:33.

for sol you frowned I knew you in this dark:

:39:34.:39:36.

for so you frowned Yesterday through me

:39:37.:39:39.

as you jabbed and killed. I parried; but my hands

:39:40.:39:47.

were loath and cold.

:39:48.:39:54.

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