14/03/2016 Newsnight


14/03/2016

Why is Russia withdrawing from Syria? Plus, reports on the migrant crisis, George Osborne and the US presidential race. Emily Maitlis presents.


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The Russians say they're with drawing from Syria.

:00:08.:00:11.

Is it job done or is something else going on?

:00:12.:00:20.

We'll ask what this means for peace talks and for the Assad regime.

:00:21.:00:25.

Also tonight, the shaken baby row - We talk to the doctor who's accused

:00:26.:00:30.

of dishonesty and threatened with being struck off,

:00:31.:00:33.

because of her trial evidence as an expert witness.

:00:34.:00:36.

In plain English, are you saying that shaken baby syndrome is

:00:37.:00:43.

rubbish? Yes, I am. I think we've known that from the very outset. I

:00:44.:00:47.

know it's not... Will scenes like this help or halt

:00:48.:00:51.

the Donald Trump juggernaut? If you're an African first, go back

:00:52.:01:00.

to Africa. Go back to Europe. We'll be talking to George Bush's

:01:01.:01:05.

former speech writer, Like so many things Russian,

:01:06.:01:08.

it came entirely without warning: An announcement by President Putin,

:01:09.:01:22.

a few hours ago, that his troops would - in the main -

:01:23.:01:25.

be pulling out of Syria. The Obama administration -

:01:26.:01:28.

and indeed governments here in Europe -

:01:29.:01:30.

were taken by surprise. Perhaps that was no small

:01:31.:01:32.

part of the strategy. It is five months since Russian

:01:33.:01:35.

forces entered the conflict in Syria, at the request,

:01:36.:01:38.

the Kremlin says, of Tonight, President Putin spoke

:01:39.:01:41.

with the air of a man whose So is it a genuine withdrawal

:01:42.:01:45.

or is it a political manoeuvre Lyse Doucet, the BBC's chief

:01:46.:02:07.

international correspondent, has spent much of the last five

:02:08.:02:12.

years covering the Syrian civil war, How do you read this? I think we

:02:13.:02:26.

have to be very careful in how we read it. Because the West has gotten

:02:27.:02:31.

Russia wrong so many times before. Go back to September of last year,

:02:32.:02:37.

when Russia suddenly announced that it was going to be targeting the

:02:38.:02:43.

so-called Islamic State in Syria. That took Western powers, took the

:02:44.:02:47.

world, by surprise then. Recently senior American officials said to

:02:48.:02:51.

me, we were naive. We believed Russia when it said that it would be

:02:52.:02:56.

targeting IS. Then they slowly began to realise that the main target was

:02:57.:02:59.

not IS at all, it was some of the very groups that the West, the

:03:00.:03:03.

moderate opposition groups, that the West wanted to have at the

:03:04.:03:06.

negotiating table venlt it's interesting -- table. It's

:03:07.:03:11.

interesting to hear the phrase used by President Putin, "job done".

:03:12.:03:19.

Under cover of coming in to support the West, the Russians have

:03:20.:03:23.

strengthened their only Naval Base along the Mediterranean. They have

:03:24.:03:26.

built a new air base, they're using that for their flights. They've sent

:03:27.:03:31.

in advanced weaponry. All of that is staying. Russia isn't going

:03:32.:03:34.

anywhere. What about the decision to say it's going to be pulling out

:03:35.:03:38.

some of its troops? Well, I think that is sending a message about the

:03:39.:03:43.

other objective for President Putin. Having strengthened the position of

:03:44.:03:46.

President Assad's forces, and they were almost failing on some

:03:47.:03:51.

strategic frontlines, it is now turning his attention to the

:03:52.:03:54.

political process, the so-called Peace Talks, and I don't think it

:03:55.:03:58.

likes the soundings it's getting from Damascus, where they're saying

:03:59.:04:03.

we refuse to discuss the future of President Assad and even

:04:04.:04:06.

presidential elections, which are part of the very political process

:04:07.:04:10.

that Russia has played a key role in forging. As you work through the tea

:04:11.:04:15.

leaves, where do you think it leaves Western intervention in Syria? Well,

:04:16.:04:22.

let's say that the last five months of Russia's intervention in Syria

:04:23.:04:28.

have been first, rising anger in Western capitals, but aside from

:04:29.:04:36.

that, hand wringing. They have found themselves absolutely powerless to

:04:37.:04:40.

do anything as Russia got away with its strategic objectives in the

:04:41.:04:43.

reason. I was at the Munich security forum, the place was resounding to

:04:44.:04:47.

criticism of Russia. I said well, then why did Russia get away with it

:04:48.:04:53.

and allow an agreement on a truce which excluded the Russian bombing

:04:54.:04:57.

in Syria around strategic areas like Aleppo and you'd get a shrug. Well,

:04:58.:05:04.

we had to work with Russia. Russia is the main player. So Russia has

:05:05.:05:12.

played a role. It's not for nothing. Look at Arab states backing the

:05:13.:05:15.

opposition. They're making more trips to Moscow than they are to

:05:16.:05:19.

Washington. When I saw King Abdullah last month, he says, "The Russians

:05:20.:05:24.

for bad or worse have shaken the tree." You might not like what's

:05:25.:05:28.

coming down from the tree, but it's galvanised the process. Fascinating.

:05:29.:05:30.

Thanks very much. Let's look at what the Russian

:05:31.:05:33.

withdrawal tells us about the state of the Syria crisis and how the West

:05:34.:05:35.

should respond to it. Joining me now are Crispin Blunt,

:05:36.:05:38.

chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, and Sarah Lain,

:05:39.:05:41.

a Russia expert at the Royal United Warm welcome to you both. Thanks for

:05:42.:05:52.

coming in. It's a very interesting to hear Lyse put it not from our

:05:53.:05:59.

perspective, but perhaps from the perspective of Bashar al-Assad. He's

:06:00.:06:05.

angry. There's an element of truth in that. There's been a dichotomy,

:06:06.:06:09.

between the Iranians and Russians, in terms of their attitude to Assad

:06:10.:06:14.

and his longevity. The Russians have key interests there, continuing with

:06:15.:06:18.

their air base and Naval Base. That's going to be sustained. There

:06:19.:06:21.

will have been interesting conversations between the Saudis and

:06:22.:06:24.

Russians where certainly the Saudis have been using the oil weapon to

:06:25.:06:29.

depress the oil price, which has a serious effect on the Russian

:06:30.:06:35.

economy. I don't think we should overlook Russia's need to address

:06:36.:06:40.

that issue. If Assad, they are putting Assad in play, that may meet

:06:41.:06:46.

some Saudi objectives. At the same time, they are militarily probably

:06:47.:06:50.

very stretched to sustain this operation for very much longer.

:06:51.:06:57.

Lyse's words came with a caveat. All things Russian you have to take with

:06:58.:07:02.

a pinch of salt. You're very good at watching the Putin manoeuvres. What

:07:03.:07:05.

do you read into what he's done today? I think the element of

:07:06.:07:09.

mistrust is obviously quite large in this, particularly from the West

:07:10.:07:12.

towards Russia. Russia came into this saying it was fighting Isis. It

:07:13.:07:16.

clearly wasn't. But I do think to echo what's been said is that

:07:17.:07:20.

there's really nothing the West can do about this. Russia came into this

:07:21.:07:25.

scenario for strategic reasons. It was trying to bolster Assad, at a

:07:26.:07:29.

time when he looked like he was falling. Without Assad Russia loses

:07:30.:07:33.

influence in the Middle East. Things have moved on since then. It was a

:07:34.:07:37.

matter of time before Russia needed to pick a point at which it needed

:07:38.:07:41.

to move the situation to a political discussion, which is what you're

:07:42.:07:44.

seeing from Putin now. Interesting that we hear that the Naval Base

:07:45.:07:48.

there has never been stronger. Was this all part of a process just to

:07:49.:07:54.

shore up Russian naval support there, whatever the antics in the

:07:55.:07:58.

air? I think that's part of it. Certainly there was a strategic

:07:59.:08:04.

military objective. Previously this was not strategically important to

:08:05.:08:08.

Russia. They've built it up. They've put personnel there and gained a new

:08:09.:08:13.

air base in La tacka, which is now a centre for mediating the ceasefire

:08:14.:08:17.

that Russia helped to broker. This was partly part of Russia's foreign

:08:18.:08:23.

policy within the Middle East. But also, foreign policy that's been

:08:24.:08:28.

consistent with what we've seen in Ukraine, regarding Russia's

:08:29.:08:30.

frustration at the Russian perception that America is setting

:08:31.:08:33.

the international rules. I think there are many objectives here. Do

:08:34.:08:38.

you think we will regard this as victory of a sort for Russia? When

:08:39.:08:44.

history writes it they'll say, there was this unsolvable conflict, you're

:08:45.:08:47.

came in, within five months, they had a ceasefire and they left. It's

:08:48.:08:52.

are the template. Well, that's a victory for everybody in that sense,

:08:53.:08:58.

we now have a cessation of hostility. You think it's a victory

:08:59.:09:02.

for everyone then? The war coming to an end, which it has done now, it

:09:03.:09:08.

can restart, but the fact it's stopped is enormous benefit. And the

:09:09.:09:12.

fact that there is now a peace process happening and the two sides

:09:13.:09:17.

are beginning to start those negotiations, that's a positive for

:09:18.:09:21.

everybody. Do you think the West owes Russia on this? Do you think

:09:22.:09:28.

there's a sense of gratitude? If everyone had been putting their

:09:29.:09:33.

national priorities to one side and all the states in the region and all

:09:34.:09:38.

the powers, the West and the Russians, have been putting the

:09:39.:09:41.

common interest at the top of the agenda, we'd be a lot further

:09:42.:09:45.

forward than we are now. However, we've got to a place where there's

:09:46.:09:49.

now a cessation of hostilities. My view is that it's quite important to

:09:50.:09:55.

get the focus of the Syrian-Arab army and Free Syrian Army not

:09:56.:10:00.

glouring at each other whilst peace negotiations take place. But let's

:10:01.:10:05.

engage them in taking the territory back from Isil and they can begin

:10:06.:10:11.

jointly a narrative of Syria re-establishing control from the

:10:12.:10:15.

jihadist extremists. Do you think Putin has hit in at all to the Isis

:10:16.:10:22.

strength? I think, first of all, Russia has been integral into the

:10:23.:10:27.

process of moving the cessation of violence along. It's been on

:10:28.:10:32.

Russia's terms. That's the difficulty for the West. It is about

:10:33.:10:35.

putting national interests aside. But Russia hasn't in the same way

:10:36.:10:39.

it's advocating everyone else should. It went in under the pretext

:10:40.:10:45.

of saying it was targeting Isis. It has targeted certain Isis strong

:10:46.:10:52.

holds. It has targeted alfuss a, but it has -- al-Nusra, but it has

:10:53.:10:56.

targeted opposition broadly. What does Britain do now then? Our policy

:10:57.:11:00.

was, frankly, unclear from the start. We encouraged the rebellion

:11:01.:11:06.

against Assad at the beginning. Then when the rebellion actually really

:11:07.:11:11.

took light, we then didn't weigh in with weapons and the kind of support

:11:12.:11:17.

- We were too slow? The issue is whether we were ever prepared to do

:11:18.:11:21.

that in the first place. I don't think we should have been or would

:11:22.:11:24.

have been. We weren't, as it turned out. The consequence was we lured,

:11:25.:11:32.

in that sense, the people represented by the now Free Syrian

:11:33.:11:37.

Army onto the punch. Assad and the people are fighting for their lives

:11:38.:11:42.

and they've fought brutally to survive against the threat they see

:11:43.:11:45.

coming their way. Part of this is our responsibility. Sarah, do you

:11:46.:11:54.

see a window in here for Russia to re-enter, if Bashar al-Assad doesn't

:11:55.:11:58.

do what he wants? Absolutely. They say they will maintain their bases

:11:59.:12:04.

in Syria. I think that is the re-entry if they need it. Is that a

:12:05.:12:09.

veiled threat or a support issue? It's a mixture of both. Russia's

:12:10.:12:14.

doing this to try and use its position to pressure Assad to

:12:15.:12:19.

negotiate, be constructive. Russia requested he be constructive at the

:12:20.:12:22.

negotiations. Today we saw the Syrian government isn't be

:12:23.:12:25.

constructive on this one sticking point. In some ways, it is useful

:12:26.:12:29.

for the process, particularly for the West. It's something the West

:12:30.:12:32.

can't leverage. Thank you very much. Syria, of course, has not

:12:33.:12:36.

contained its crisis within the country or even

:12:37.:12:38.

within the Middle East. Today, the starkest visual reminder

:12:39.:12:40.

of how that civil war has shifted an entire population,

:12:41.:12:43.

refugees and migrants wading through the freezing waters

:12:44.:12:46.

of a Greek river to cross the border with Macedonia, after authorities

:12:47.:12:49.

there have forbidden their entry. Many - some with toddlers -

:12:50.:12:51.

had marched for hours along muddy paths to enter the swollen river

:12:52.:12:54.

in a bid to get around One photographer, who witnessed

:12:55.:12:59.

the exodus, suggested as many Well, this evening, I spoke

:13:00.:13:05.

to the Dutch Foreign Minister, Holland currently has

:13:06.:13:10.

the presidency of the EU Council. I asked him what Europe's response

:13:11.:13:15.

to the crisis should be. The imperative is

:13:16.:13:22.

first and foremost... And that's why I know that the Greek

:13:23.:13:30.

government is together with the Macedonians trying to find

:13:31.:13:33.

a solution and if people actually go to the possibility

:13:34.:13:36.

for camps in Greece. But they are leaving

:13:37.:13:38.

those camps, the camps aren't leaving, people

:13:39.:13:40.

want to leave the camps. Yes, and that's why it's

:13:41.:13:42.

so important that this system we have right now is stopped

:13:43.:13:46.

and we go to a system of voluntary relocation, that is the only

:13:47.:13:50.

way to make this dismal Just explain, is it

:13:51.:13:52.

wrong to see Slovenia I don't think it's a matter

:13:53.:13:58.

of right and wrong and these countries have obligations

:13:59.:14:05.

under international law, in the context of international

:14:06.:14:08.

humanitarian law. It's fairly clear that

:14:09.:14:10.

people don't want to stay in those countries,

:14:11.:14:14.

they want to go to destinations like Germany, Sweden,

:14:15.:14:16.

the Netherlands. We have seen that

:14:17.:14:19.

that route in itself leads to an endless flow

:14:20.:14:22.

which is not controllable. Which basically leads to this

:14:23.:14:25.

enormous sense that the European population feels it

:14:26.:14:28.

is not under control. But a very clear signal has two B,

:14:29.:14:32.

do they shut the Borders and stop -- to be, do they shut those borders

:14:33.:14:41.

and stop the trafficking, stop the roots and take the pain or keep the

:14:42.:14:49.

borders open? The way we have seen the countries of Austria and others

:14:50.:14:53.

carrying out the so-called Schengen Agreement, that doesn't work. We

:14:54.:14:57.

have to work with external borders of the Schengen Agreement and

:14:58.:15:02.

voluntary resettlement in Europe. The present system doesn't work.

:15:03.:15:05.

Forgive me but Holland can take the lead,

:15:06.:15:07.

you have the Council Presidency, isn't it

:15:08.:15:09.

time to stop saying, we don't know if it is right

:15:10.:15:12.

or wrong and say, we know that this is right and that's

:15:13.:15:15.

what's going wrong at the moment, there is no leadership at all.

:15:16.:15:19.

Well, I think if I may contradict you, I agree

:15:20.:15:23.

with you and being in this position of trying to find consensus

:15:24.:15:27.

among 28 countries of which some are not taking any migrants at all,

:15:28.:15:35.

or not taking Muslims and others are very hospitable and receive

:15:36.:15:37.

It is our role to get the 28 countries together and we can be

:15:38.:15:48.

cynical about it but now with the plan that has finally

:15:49.:15:52.

worked out on the responsibility of Greece and the Balkan countries

:15:53.:15:54.

but also countries like Germany and the Netherlands,

:15:55.:15:56.

we are working towards a system that makes much more sense.

:15:57.:15:59.

Tell me how the Dutch government views the British question of EU

:16:00.:16:02.

We are pleased that under our presidency and with the negotiations

:16:03.:16:14.

at least there has been made a deal and I think it is in the interests

:16:15.:16:18.

of all of the European countries, which takes seriously the concerns

:16:19.:16:20.

Are plans being made in the case of a Brexit?

:16:21.:16:26.

Anybody who tells you they know what will happen knows more

:16:27.:16:29.

Everything has to be renegotiated between the UK

:16:30.:16:34.

and the European Union.

:16:35.:16:36.

On the basis of unanimity in the rest of Europe

:16:37.:16:38.

But it's up to the British people to decide.

:16:39.:16:45.

Do you think a Brexit would harm the body

:16:46.:16:47.

I know that it is in our interests at the

:16:48.:17:00.

We are living in a world which is unstable,

:17:01.:17:04.

in which we have a lot of competition, internationally,

:17:05.:17:06.

Of course Europe will survive after a Brexit.

:17:07.:17:12.

But it is a loss to Europe if it would happen,

:17:13.:17:14.

For some people, George Osborne represents everything that's

:17:15.:17:21.

He's rich, privileged and never had a proper job outside Westminster.

:17:22.:17:29.

He's also, say his critics, overly fond of minutely strategising

:17:30.:17:31.

the political embarrassment of his enemies.

:17:32.:17:33.

But to his fans, he's responsible for many of this Government's

:17:34.:17:36.

proudest achievements and masterminded the Conservatives'

:17:37.:17:37.

On Wednesday, he will deliver his eighth Budget,

:17:38.:17:43.

which if the EU referendum goes against him, could prove

:17:44.:17:46.

So what do we know about George Osborne?

:17:47.:17:48.

For someone who has been in the job for so long, George Osborne is

:17:49.:18:01.

surrounded by a surprising amount of uncertainty. He carries it around

:18:02.:18:06.

with him like an ever present Budget box. For a start the economic signs

:18:07.:18:13.

are not good. He is also constrained by the politics of the referendum.

:18:14.:18:17.

Then there is his own future and what happens when his friend and

:18:18.:18:21.

partner David Cameron steps down from the premiership? My view is

:18:22.:18:25.

that if David Cameron said he was going to be Prime Minister for

:18:26.:18:29.

another five years the happiest person would be George Osborne

:18:30.:18:33.

because he believes David Cameron does the job very well and while

:18:34.:18:37.

David Cameron is in power George Osborne has a share and he is

:18:38.:18:40.

pragmatic enough to know that that is valuable to him. As one of the

:18:41.:18:46.

architects of a surprise election victory George Osborne might now

:18:47.:18:52.

have expected to be basking in the appreciation of a grateful party,

:18:53.:18:55.

however that is not how politics works. Some of his MPs are a little

:18:56.:19:00.

wary of George Osborne, others are suspicious regarding him as perhaps

:19:01.:19:04.

not even a proper conservative at all. His pet project, HS2, certainly

:19:05.:19:14.

isn't an obviously conservative one, costing ?50 billion and ripping

:19:15.:19:17.

through the Tory shires in the process. Nor is raising the minimum

:19:18.:19:23.

wage. There are other criticisms too, bubbling up all too readily

:19:24.:19:29.

from Conservative MPs, he is too fond of political intrigue and

:19:30.:19:32.

calculation. George Osborne has certainly been mastering the trade

:19:33.:19:36.

of politics his entire adult life, in every office he has worked, he

:19:37.:19:41.

could clearly hear Big Ben through an open window. IOS thought he

:19:42.:19:46.

should do something other than politics before the House of Commons

:19:47.:19:49.

but he is enormously thoughtful and a good tactical judge. If you talk

:19:50.:19:58.

to George the -- he seldom says something that isn't worth listening

:19:59.:20:03.

to. The Conservative Party were deep into a decade-long nervous breakdown

:20:04.:20:07.

over Europe and an attempt to reboot the squabbling party John Major

:20:08.:20:13.

appointed the affable but accident prone Jeremy Handley. As the party

:20:14.:20:21.

chairman. A new researcher, fresh out of Oxford. The day after George

:20:22.:20:25.

Osborne was filmed in front of Central office the parties fortune

:20:26.:20:32.

nosedived, Labour elected a charismatic leader and Osborne was

:20:33.:20:35.

dispatched to Blackpool to observe in the flesh this mortal threat to

:20:36.:20:41.

the Conservatives' chances of holding onto power. In 1994 and a

:20:42.:20:46.

Labour Party conference George was there for the Conservatives and I

:20:47.:20:49.

was therefore a think tank and we were sat next to each other when

:20:50.:20:55.

Tony Blair made his great speech, abolishing Klaus 4. Afterwards we

:20:56.:20:59.

went for a drink and talked about what we saw and agreed that the

:21:00.:21:02.

Conservative Party would never get back into power until it coped with

:21:03.:21:06.

the fact that Tony Blair was serious about making Labour new Labour. Do

:21:07.:21:13.

you still think the joke is a good idea on the first page? Definitely.

:21:14.:21:18.

George Osborne was highly valued as a speech writer. His seat in

:21:19.:21:23.

Parliament meant he could give as well as write speeches and it open

:21:24.:21:29.

up the higher rungs of politics. After the election defeat Michael

:21:30.:21:32.

Howard gave him an extraordinary promotion to Shadow Chancellor when

:21:33.:21:38.

he was still only 33. There is a bit of a gamble in George, you know, he

:21:39.:21:46.

is a relation of Aspinall. And he took the view that up against the

:21:47.:21:51.

Colossus of Gordon Brown, as Chancellor of the Exchequer, a

:21:52.:21:57.

formidable task. Gordon Brown had to be lucky every time and he only had

:21:58.:22:02.

to be lucky once. Osborne and Cameron were the crucial partnership

:22:03.:22:06.

at the top of the Conservative Party, for political journalists the

:22:07.:22:13.

comparisons were too inviting. The papers will say, have the

:22:14.:22:16.

Conservatives found their own brown and Blair? How much I will wait on

:22:17.:22:20.

you and George Osborne is that? It is probably fatal! They have always

:22:21.:22:25.

worked closely and effectively and I think that is one of their

:22:26.:22:29.

strengths, collectively, as a partnership. Unlike Brown and Blair

:22:30.:22:36.

there was never any doubt who George Osborne thought would make the

:22:37.:22:41.

better leader, and it was George Osborne who ran the Cameron

:22:42.:22:46.

leadership campaign on a Blair like modernising ticket. At the Cameron

:22:47.:22:51.

victory parade in December 2005 I spotted a jubilant George Osborne in

:22:52.:22:56.

the crowd. It's great, when we started in July I don't think we

:22:57.:22:59.

could have predicted such a great margin. To start with Osborne

:23:00.:23:04.

promised to match Labour spending plans but as the world economy began

:23:05.:23:08.

unravelling he had to ditch the policy in a hurry. In an attempt to

:23:09.:23:12.

understand what was going on he travelled to New York to meet big

:23:13.:23:16.

players of global finance face-to-face and I went with him to

:23:17.:23:21.

see how every meeting reinforced his conviction that the British economy

:23:22.:23:24.

was heading for a potentially catastrophic crash. What is very

:23:25.:23:29.

clear is that Britain is ill-prepared for this financial

:23:30.:23:32.

turmoil and its impact on the economy later this year. George

:23:33.:23:37.

Osborne became the austerities Chancellor that we know today, but

:23:38.:23:41.

he has never delivered his deficit reduction promises on time. The

:23:42.:23:46.

journey between number 11 Downing St and number ten is just a few yards

:23:47.:23:54.

but in politics it is capable of consuming careers. His critics say

:23:55.:23:58.

that he is obsessed with the transition and everything he does is

:23:59.:24:02.

couched in those terms but not so say his friends, if that was really

:24:03.:24:07.

is obsession he would have given up being Chancellor when the

:24:08.:24:11.

opportunity was presented to him after the last election. You take

:24:12.:24:14.

the success of the election and you park it in the hope to become leader

:24:15.:24:18.

of the party because you have not done anything controversial in the

:24:19.:24:23.

intervening period. The chances were the economy would not do well and

:24:24.:24:27.

you take risks and you do things, and that has happened. His decision

:24:28.:24:31.

was that he would be wasting potentially four years as a guide of

:24:32.:24:38.

the government, it is cautious but also a waste of the office. This

:24:39.:24:41.

week 's budget doesn't look like one where George Osborne will be able to

:24:42.:24:48.

do much, his radical pension reforms were dropped amid concern about

:24:49.:24:52.

angering swing voters and Conservative MPs in the run-up to

:24:53.:24:55.

the EU referendum. And depending on how the referendum goes, this budget

:24:56.:25:00.

could conceivably be George Osborne's last.

:25:01.:25:06.

Within the next 48 hours, Donald Trump may emerge

:25:07.:25:08.

as the Republican presidential candidate.

:25:09.:25:09.

This, after a weekend in which the frontrunner had

:25:10.:25:11.

to cancel several rallies, after violence broke out -

:25:12.:25:13.

scenes of chaos that don't appear to have dented his popularity.

:25:14.:25:16.

But tonight - on the eve of the next big electoral test -

:25:17.:25:19.

we ask about the policies of the other candidates.

:25:20.:25:21.

Could it be that he is the least conservative amongst them?

:25:22.:25:30.

We'll speak to George Bush's speechwriter, David Frum,

:25:31.:25:33.

who joins us live from Florida, tomorrow's biggest electoral

:25:34.:25:37.

Go back to Africa! This may be seen as the low point of the 2016

:25:38.:26:08.

election campaign but then again it may not, we still have a long way to

:26:09.:26:12.

go. Donald Trump doesn't seem to mind the violence at his own

:26:13.:26:19.

rallies. The guards are very gentle with him, he is smiling and

:26:20.:26:24.

laughing, I would like to punch him in the face, I tell you. What is it

:26:25.:26:30.

doing to his popularity? Well, his poll ratings seems to be improving

:26:31.:26:34.

on the back of all of this, doubling his lead over Marco Rubio. In

:26:35.:26:41.

Rubio's home state of Florida, the biggest electoral jewel of the race

:26:42.:26:45.

tomorrow. And he is strong everywhere else except Ohio, John

:26:46.:26:51.

Kasich's home state. Several of them are winner takes all, if as the

:26:52.:26:56.

polls predict he comes first he lands a significant number of

:26:57.:27:00.

delegates and adds them to his tally. Thank you, everybody. Even at

:27:01.:27:06.

this stage with Trump potentially hours away from securing the

:27:07.:27:10.

Republican presidential nomination, many feel they don't really know

:27:11.:27:14.

what policies the billionaire would espouse, he has been accused of

:27:15.:27:17.

flip-flopping. By the other candidates. Despite the eyebrow

:27:18.:27:24.

raising immigration talk it is easy to argue that the others lie to the

:27:25.:27:28.

right. Ted Cruz is an ideologue who wants to breath at the Iran deal,

:27:29.:27:34.

and end gay marriage and abortion rights and do away with gun control.

:27:35.:27:39.

Marco Rubio is often betrayed as the moderate, but sounds identical to

:27:40.:27:45.

Ted Cruz on the stump. He wants to tear up diplomatic softening to Cuba

:27:46.:27:49.

as well as the Iran deal and votes against abortion even in cases of

:27:50.:27:56.

rape. Then there is John Kasich, sometimes betrayed as the

:27:57.:27:58.

bleeding-heart candidate. Take a closer look at his voting, far to

:27:59.:28:05.

the right on reproductive rights. They are all against Obama care, of

:28:06.:28:10.

course. Donald Trump for all of the bluster may be the least

:28:11.:28:13.

conservative of the candidates, America just has to decide whether

:28:14.:28:17.

that is a good or bad thing. Fascinating. Joining me now is David

:28:18.:28:21.

Frum. and from Florida, that key swing

:28:22.:28:25.

state, writer and commentator, Great to have you here. I'm not sure

:28:26.:28:33.

how Gaelic you out of the country at a time like this, David. -- I'm not

:28:34.:28:39.

sure how they allowed you out. If Donald Trump loses Ohio even if he

:28:40.:28:44.

wins Florida the contest is open. He will obviously have a tremendous

:28:45.:28:49.

gust of wind at his back but it remains mathematically possible if

:28:50.:28:53.

he loses Ohio that he would be short of an outright majority of

:28:54.:28:56.

Republican delegates and at the convention anything can happen

:28:57.:28:59.

because the delegates will be there and won't want to nominate him if

:29:00.:29:03.

they could avoid it. Isn't it odd that there isn't a second-place

:29:04.:29:07.

candidate? One week we thought it was Marco Rubio, the other Ted Cruz.

:29:08.:29:13.

If there was a broken convention it would not necessarily be Ted Cruz

:29:14.:29:18.

but something different? Ted Cruz is a strong second-place candidate but

:29:19.:29:22.

you are right, evil need to understand this, when you see the

:29:23.:29:27.

numbers of delegates that does not refer to actual people but slots. --

:29:28.:29:31.

people need to understand this. The power to appoint people. Actual

:29:32.:29:36.

delegates are selected later usually by state parties and they are not

:29:37.:29:39.

necessarily beholden to Donald Trump, they make the party go, local

:29:40.:29:44.

activists and donors and they have different views about the future of

:29:45.:29:48.

the party from less committed people, less committed Republican

:29:49.:29:54.

formatter casting votes for Donald Trump. We have talked about the

:29:55.:29:59.

anger and emotion of this campaign, how do you define a trump voter?

:30:00.:30:05.

Well, according to the polls, the Trump voter is white, less educated,

:30:06.:30:12.

and angry. It's an anger that has been fed for the last ten or 20

:30:13.:30:18.

years from right-wing talk radio but also from left-wing demagogues, as

:30:19.:30:27.

you mentioned in the piece before. He is more moderate than the other

:30:28.:30:31.

Republican candidates, and there is an awful lot that would appeal to

:30:32.:30:36.

Democrats. The part that appeals to Conservative working-class voters is

:30:37.:30:42.

quite frankly the racial part, the anger at Muslims, Mexicans, and so

:30:43.:30:44.

on. You once called Trump lizard brained

:30:45.:30:56.

- You have it wrong, no. Tell me. I said that Trump was acting out of

:30:57.:31:02.

his lizard brain. I'm sorry, I can hear myself talking. I said that

:31:03.:31:09.

Trump was acting out of his lizard brain. Each of us has a lizard brain

:31:10.:31:15.

at the base of our skull that controls reflective actions like

:31:16.:31:20.

fight-or-flight, hunger and so on. He was, he hasn't been dealing and

:31:21.:31:25.

appealing to people on the basis of thought or reason. He's been

:31:26.:31:31.

appealing to people on the basis of their fears, the emotions and

:31:32.:31:34.

reactions that come out of their lizard brains. David, one of the

:31:35.:31:39.

reasons I introduced you at the beginning as a speech writer for

:31:40.:31:44.

George Bush, because in a sense whatever candidate emerges is a

:31:45.:31:48.

product of the last one. Do you think Trump is a product of Obama?

:31:49.:31:56.

No Trump is a product of Bush. I don't think Freudian psychoanalysis

:31:57.:32:00.

is the way to approach actual people, but as a literary advice

:32:01.:32:06.

it's very powerful. Your viewers who remember, the theory was the patient

:32:07.:32:10.

suffered a trauma. The patient dealt with the trauma through repression,

:32:11.:32:16.

but the repressed always returns and expresses itself in hysterical

:32:17.:32:19.

behaviour. Who's got the mental illness? The Bush years were the

:32:20.:32:24.

trauma of the Republican Party. We have not been able to talk candidly

:32:25.:32:30.

about what went right and wrong. We have a set of responses - he kept us

:32:31.:32:35.

safe. What do we mean? How do we feel about Iraq and Katrina and how

:32:36.:32:42.

do we feel about Medicaire? There have been a stereotype list of

:32:43.:32:45.

things to say. I like everything about George W Bush except he spent

:32:46.:32:53.

too much at home. So, in the vacancy created by this inability to talk,

:32:54.:32:59.

Jeb Bush thought, maybe the party is ready for another Bush, a third

:33:00.:33:03.

Bush. This enormous pile of money was gathered and this left and least

:33:04.:33:08.

articulate of all the Bushes set forward and it was catastrophe.

:33:09.:33:15.

Trump has stepped into the post-Jeb environment with, in which all the

:33:16.:33:23.

establishment money - So this is a direct failing of the Republican

:33:24.:33:25.

Party to get to grips with what happened to it? Donald Trump,

:33:26.:33:30.

somebody as obviously fraudulent as Donald Trump, could not have a

:33:31.:33:33.

political career in a party that was well. This is not a well party.

:33:34.:33:37.

That's why there's an opportunity for him. The interesting thing,

:33:38.:33:41.

perhaps, is we've got this extraordinary situation where a lot

:33:42.:33:46.

of voters don't like the candidate of their own party naturally. Will

:33:47.:33:52.

we see cross-dressing here, the Democrats that can't bear Hilary and

:33:53.:33:56.

the Republicans that can't bear Trump? Yes, I do. Can I say about

:33:57.:34:02.

David Frum, over the years, he has been very courageous, one of the few

:34:03.:34:05.

Republicans who have been willing to speak the truth about the problems

:34:06.:34:10.

in that party. Right now, I'd like to speak some truth about some

:34:11.:34:15.

problems in the Democratic Party. These left-wing protesters, who are

:34:16.:34:20.

going to Trump rallies and causing this trouble are only strengthening

:34:21.:34:25.

Donald Trump. He is the master of disaster. As long as the country

:34:26.:34:33.

seems chaotic and anarchic, he will benefit. I believe that no matter

:34:34.:34:36.

what the polls are showing right now, he has a very strong chance

:34:37.:34:41.

against Hillary Clinton next fall, which should terrify all of us. So

:34:42.:34:46.

your message to those protesters would be - don't protest? Stay home.

:34:47.:34:53.

Go door to door, knock on doors and talk to people. Be positive. Be

:34:54.:35:00.

creative. Every time - I've been to these Trump rallies and the crowd

:35:01.:35:08.

loves it when, you know, some poor left-winger starts screaming and

:35:09.:35:13.

Trump says, "Get them out of here!" Have we reached the low point of

:35:14.:35:20.

this campaign? Oh, no! Right. Not as long as Donald Trump is breathing.

:35:21.:35:25.

It's going to get lower. Joe's point about staying home, one of the

:35:26.:35:29.

sicknesses of American politics, and one of the sicknesses with Donald

:35:30.:35:33.

Trump is the break down in institutions. If you feel that the

:35:34.:35:37.

idea, this is a Facebook era idea, if you feel strongly about something

:35:38.:35:40.

what you do is go somewhere and express your indig nation. If you

:35:41.:35:45.

feel strongly about something, get 25 of your friends registered to

:35:46.:35:50.

vote. Drive people to the polls. Raise money for the candidate of

:35:51.:35:58.

your choice. Those are pro-institutional actions. One of

:35:59.:36:01.

the things that has enabled the Trumps is every time we saw, we have

:36:02.:36:05.

a reform, all of our reforms are based on weakening and degrading our

:36:06.:36:09.

institutions to make it more impossible for parties not to do

:36:10.:36:13.

self-destructive things. I could go on for another three hours, thanks

:36:14.:36:15.

very much. In the British prison system,

:36:16.:36:16.

a child murderer is the lowest But what if there hasn't

:36:17.:36:19.

been a killing at all, but the child died of an accident

:36:20.:36:24.

or by natural causes? The question is important

:36:25.:36:26.

because one of Britain's leading defence experts in the hotly

:36:27.:36:28.

contested area of shaken baby syndrome has been severely

:36:29.:36:31.

criticised by the doctors' A medical practitioners tribunal

:36:32.:36:33.

ruled on Friday that Dr Waney Squier gave misleading and dishonest

:36:34.:36:39.

evidence, when she acted as an expert witness in six cases

:36:40.:36:42.

involving parents accused of harming One of the country's very

:36:43.:36:45.

few neuropathologists, she may now be barred

:36:46.:36:49.

from practising. But her defenders call what she's

:36:50.:36:51.

experienced a witch hunt. Pathologist Waney Squire has had the

:36:52.:37:04.

book thrown at her, a General Medical Council panel, a retired

:37:05.:37:10.

Wing Commander, former Merseyside copper, and retired geriatric

:37:11.:37:13.

psychiatrist found her evidence to be outrageous and untruthful, that

:37:14.:37:18.

she had misrepresented and cherry picked and said, "You must have real

:37:19.:37:26.

aislesed you were being dishonest." Either Waney Squire is a bad Doctor

:37:27.:37:30.

Who faces being struck off for lying to the courts, or she's a Galileo

:37:31.:37:36.

for the 21st century, the victim of a great scientific injustice. In

:37:37.:37:42.

plain English, are you saying that shaken baby syndrome is rubbish? Ah,

:37:43.:37:48.

yes, I am. And I think we've known that from the very outset. But there

:37:49.:37:54.

are many doctors, senior doctors, who gave evidence against you, who

:37:55.:37:57.

don't agree with that at all. That's correct. I've looked in great detail

:37:58.:38:03.

at the literature on shaken baby syndrome. I've gone through the

:38:04.:38:07.

whole history and read as much as I can. I have found nothing which

:38:08.:38:12.

satisfies me that there's any scientific foundation for it.

:38:13.:38:15.

They're calling you a liar effectively. They are. And what's

:38:16.:38:19.

your reaction to that? As I say, I gave my evidence to the best of my

:38:20.:38:24.

ability. I tried to be as truthful and honest as this work demands.

:38:25.:38:27.

It's serious work and I take it seriously. Shaken baby syndrome is

:38:28.:38:35.

hotly disputed. Its supporters believe swelling of the brain,

:38:36.:38:38.

bleeding over the surface of the brain and in the eyes must have been

:38:39.:38:43.

caused by the baby being vie lently shaken. The syndrome's critics doubt

:38:44.:38:54.

it exists. Including a former defence lawyer Campbell Malon.

:38:55.:38:57.

Shaken baby syndrome is a fact - true or false? I'm not a scientist.

:38:58.:39:05.

But the Court of Appeal held in 2005 that shaken baby syndrome was a

:39:06.:39:09.

hypothesis, was a theory, not a fact. In 2007, Newsnight told the

:39:10.:39:20.

story of Susan Holdsworth. Dr Squire, one of the country's few

:39:21.:39:27.

neuropangologists was asked to examine the evidence against her.

:39:28.:39:32.

The original trial had heard that Suzanne must have slammed Kyle

:39:33.:39:36.

against a banister. Suzanne said he suffered a fit. Patients who have

:39:37.:39:40.

epilepsy have scars in their brain and they act as a focus for the

:39:41.:39:46.

epileptic activity. Kyle had two abnormalities in the brain that

:39:47.:39:52.

would predispose him to seizures. And seizures can kill. As a result

:39:53.:40:01.

of the evidence, Susan Holds worth appealed and was found not guilty at

:40:02.:40:06.

retrial. I asked what she thought of the tribunal's verdict? I am

:40:07.:40:14.

disgusted in it. If it weren't for Waney Squires, I don't think I'd be

:40:15.:40:21.

here where I am now. We turned to Waney Squires for help. If she's not

:40:22.:40:28.

here any more, who, like people like me who are wrongly convicted, who

:40:29.:40:31.

are they going to turn to? The question at the heart of this

:40:32.:40:35.

argument is not who killed this baby, but was there a crime? As far

:40:36.:40:42.

as shaken baby syndrome is concerned Dr Squire has been a thorn in the

:40:43.:40:46.

side of the medical establishment, the Crown Prosecution Service and

:40:47.:40:51.

the Metropolitan Police. The Met's child abuse unit initiated the case

:40:52.:40:55.

against Dr Squire. In their view they had to. Child protection is

:40:56.:41:01.

paramount. My view is that having lost the scientific argument, having

:41:02.:41:04.

lost the legal argument, what they've done is to try and take the

:41:05.:41:12.

experts on an individual basis out of the argument. It seems to me that

:41:13.:41:18.

we, in the 21st century, have gone back to the days of the inquisition.

:41:19.:41:23.

In the future, when someone is accused of shaking a baby to death,

:41:24.:41:26.

on the science, who will defend them? I think it's a deeply

:41:27.:41:34.

troubling time because this is going to inhibit even further anybody who

:41:35.:41:38.

understands the science and who has a valid opinion to offer from

:41:39.:41:42.

stepping forward, for fear of also facing this kind of hearing. Dr

:41:43.:41:48.

Squire faces being struck off later this month. Despite all our

:41:49.:41:54.

scientific advances, the tragedy of unexplained invanity death stays

:41:55.:42:01.

with us. For Susan Holdsworth it isn't an academic issue. Without Dr

:42:02.:42:04.

Squire, she fears she might still be in prison.

:42:05.:42:15.

I felt like I had won the lottery. It was amazing, somebody what I

:42:16.:42:26.

never thought I would do. So if it wasn't like Waney Squires, that

:42:27.:42:35.

people like me could be still in prison. O

:42:36.:42:41.

Evan's here tomorrow. Until then, good night.

:42:42.:42:48.

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