Browse content similar to 21/03/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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If ever the words "get a grip" had a use, it's now. | :00:00. | :00:07. | |
Three days after the resignation of Iain Duncan Smith, | :00:08. | :00:10. | |
the Government's still trying to fight its way out of a corner. | :00:11. | :00:16. | |
We will continue with this approach in full, because we are a modern, | :00:17. | :00:19. | |
compassionate, one-nation Conservative Government | :00:20. | :00:22. | |
and I commend this statement to the House. | :00:23. | :00:25. | |
But it's been a day of retreat and discomfort. | :00:26. | :00:28. | |
Will the Prime Minister give us an assurance that this will be | :00:29. | :00:32. | |
the Chancellor of the Exchequer's last Budget? | :00:33. | :00:37. | |
Education Secretary Nicky Morgan is with us to bring order | :00:38. | :00:42. | |
We don't view Cuba as a threat to the United States. | :00:43. | :00:50. | |
I hope that my visit here indicates the degree to which we're setting | :00:51. | :00:53. | |
a new chapter in Cuban-American relations. | :00:54. | :00:57. | |
President Obama goes to Cuba, but will his political foes at home | :00:58. | :01:00. | |
permit him this foreign policy legacy? | :01:01. | :01:04. | |
Will we still be bothering to tweet at 20? | :01:05. | :01:10. | |
You are talking to a lot of people who are already converted | :01:11. | :01:14. | |
to your cause, particularly for the left. | :01:15. | :01:17. | |
Twitter is a very big echo chamber of conversations. | :01:18. | :01:27. | |
If you haven't followed, there are essentially three threads | :01:28. | :01:34. | |
A big U-turn on welfare cuts, which it has to be said, | :01:35. | :01:40. | |
was announced in some confusion and ambiguity. | :01:41. | :01:42. | |
A full-blown crisis of Government authority, with pervasive | :01:43. | :01:47. | |
back-biting and negative briefing, and an appearance of disarray, | :01:48. | :01:49. | |
all of which justifies those "Tories in turmoil" headlines. | :01:50. | :01:52. | |
And thirdly, there's a drama concerning the personalities, | :01:53. | :01:55. | |
in particular, Chancellor George Osborne's hopes of rising | :01:56. | :01:58. | |
Let's start with him and the politics of this | :01:59. | :02:03. | |
Here's our political editor, David Grossman. | :02:04. | :02:11. | |
In that well-worn Westminster cliche, there is a hole | :02:12. | :02:13. | |
in the Chancellor's Budget, but really, set | :02:14. | :02:16. | |
in the context of total Government spending, | :02:17. | :02:18. | |
There is a gaping void in the Government, or more | :02:19. | :02:24. | |
specifically, the Chancellor's reputation. | :02:25. | :02:27. | |
Labour managed to drag a minister to the Commons today to answer | :02:28. | :02:30. | |
a question on this Budget disarray, but it wasn't the Chancellor, | :02:31. | :02:32. | |
Does the Shadow Chancellor really want to talk | :02:33. | :02:38. | |
The Government, though, has climbed down on not only 1. ?1.3 billion | :02:39. | :02:52. | |
worth of disability benefit cuts, but also, to make sure it wins | :02:53. | :02:56. | |
tomorrow's Budget vote, it's conceding Opposition amendments on | :02:57. | :03:02. | |
VAT on tap upons and on -- tampons and on solar panels and insulation, | :03:03. | :03:07. | |
putting the Government in possible conflict with the European | :03:08. | :03:09. | |
Commission. The Budget has a big hole in it. It's up to the Prime | :03:10. | :03:14. | |
Minister to persuade his great friend to either come here and | :03:15. | :03:18. | |
explain how he's going to fill that hole or perhaps he should consider | :03:19. | :03:22. | |
his position and look for something else to do, because clearly, he | :03:23. | :03:26. | |
hasn't been very successful at producing a balanced Budget in the | :03:27. | :03:30. | |
interests of everyone in this country, particularly those with | :03:31. | :03:36. | |
disabilities. This was easily the worst weekend for the Government | :03:37. | :03:40. | |
since the election. The departing Work and Pensions Secretary laying | :03:41. | :03:43. | |
into the Government and the Chancellor in a round of interviews. | :03:44. | :03:47. | |
Talk to enough Conservative MPs around this place and it becomes | :03:48. | :03:51. | |
very clear that the disquiet in the party right now isn't about welfare | :03:52. | :03:58. | |
per se. Indeed, many of Mr Osborne's and Mr Cameron's severest critics | :03:59. | :04:01. | |
don't agree with Iain Duncan Smith on the matter. No, it's more about | :04:02. | :04:05. | |
the way that those at the top of the Conservative Party treat those lower | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
down, the allegation you constantly hear is they're too dismissive of | :04:11. | :04:14. | |
those with traditional conservative views. There was still no sign of a | :04:15. | :04:19. | |
Chancellor in Downing Street today. Instead the Prime Minister was | :04:20. | :04:23. | |
leaving for the Commons to make a statement on last week's EU Summit, | :04:24. | :04:30. | |
after apparently reacting with a four letter tirade at Iain Duncan | :04:31. | :04:34. | |
Smith resignation last Friday, today he was complimentary about his | :04:35. | :04:39. | |
former Cabinet colleague My right honourable friend contributed an | :04:40. | :04:41. | |
enormous amount to the work of this Government and he can be proud of | :04:42. | :04:45. | |
what he achieved. Mr Speaker, let me say this, this Government will | :04:46. | :04:49. | |
continue to give the highest priority to improving the life | :04:50. | :04:51. | |
chances of the poorest in our country. That tone was well received | :04:52. | :04:58. | |
on the Conservative benches, where many are feeling bruised and even | :04:59. | :05:01. | |
insulted, particularly by the way the Chancellor and the Prime | :05:02. | :05:05. | |
Minister have treated Conservative advocates of leaving the EU. I don't | :05:06. | :05:09. | |
wish to be critical of the Prime Minister. I think there's plenty of | :05:10. | :05:13. | |
time to get this right. I think his judgment of the mood in the House | :05:14. | :05:16. | |
today is a sign that he's perfectly able to get it right. He was very | :05:17. | :05:20. | |
respectful of people who wish to leave the European Union. He | :05:21. | :05:24. | |
understands our passion for a more democratic, freer country that can | :05:25. | :05:28. | |
spend more of its own money. He just happens to think there are arguments | :05:29. | :05:31. | |
on the other side. That's the tone he has to strike so that the party | :05:32. | :05:35. | |
comes together easily after all the exertions of the referendum through | :05:36. | :05:39. | |
to June. Another blow to George Osborne came from Iain Duncan Smith' | :05:40. | :05:43. | |
replacement at work and pensions, Stephen Crabb. In confirming a halt | :05:44. | :05:48. | |
to the planned disability benefit cuts, he took a swipe at Government | :05:49. | :05:53. | |
by balance sheet. As the Prime Minister indicated on Friday, I can | :05:54. | :05:56. | |
tell the House that we will not be going ahead with the changes to PIP | :05:57. | :06:03. | |
that had been put forward. I am absolutely clear, Mr Speaker, that a | :06:04. | :06:09. | |
compassionate and farewell fair system should not just be about | :06:10. | :06:12. | |
numbers. Behind every statistic there is a human being. And | :06:13. | :06:16. | |
perhaps... Perhaps sometimes in Government we forget that. There | :06:17. | :06:21. | |
was, though, some confusion as to whether the Government was now | :06:22. | :06:24. | |
abandoning all welfare cuts for the rest of the Parliament. The | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
Chancellor-shaped hole in today's events will be filled tomorrow by | :06:29. | :06:32. | |
the man himself, who will speak in defence of his Budget and his | :06:33. | :06:36. | |
reputation. Something to look forward to. | :06:37. | :06:39. | |
Well, the Education Secretary, Nicky Morgan, is here to help us | :06:40. | :06:41. | |
understand what's going on in her Government. | :06:42. | :06:44. | |
Very good evening to you. Goning. Good evening. Do you think the | :06:45. | :06:54. | |
Government lost sight of compassionate conservatism agenda in | :06:55. | :06:57. | |
the last couple of years, that it became too much about saving money, | :06:58. | :07:00. | |
at any expense, even from vulnerable people? No, I don't think that at | :07:01. | :07:05. | |
all. Certainly not in my area of reg indication reform, where we -- of | :07:06. | :07:09. | |
education reform. Where we are making sure that every child, | :07:10. | :07:14. | |
regardless of birth or background, gets the education they're entitled | :07:15. | :07:19. | |
to. Not in terms of the Treasury, or in terms of the manifesto. One of | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
the biggest things has been about taking people out of paying income | :07:24. | :07:27. | |
tax. 31 million people are paying less tax now than in 2010. The | :07:28. | :07:31. | |
introduction of the national living wage, all of those things and many | :07:32. | :07:36. | |
other reforms announcements demonstrate that we are, as the | :07:37. | :07:40. | |
Prime Minister said at the end of his statement, a modern, | :07:41. | :07:42. | |
compassionate Conservative Government. I want you to look at a | :07:43. | :07:47. | |
graph. This is from the IFS. On the left the incomes of the poorest and | :07:48. | :07:51. | |
how they're going to change with tax and benefit cuts over this | :07:52. | :07:54. | |
Parliament. On the right, the incomes of the richest. As you go | :07:55. | :07:58. | |
from left to right, the poorest to the richest and the big downward | :07:59. | :08:03. | |
bars are the percentage losses in net income. What you basically see | :08:04. | :08:10. | |
is that the poorest are losing 5% to 8% or more of their net income. The | :08:11. | :08:14. | |
top people on the right, the richest, are losing almost nothing, | :08:15. | :08:17. | |
with the proposed changes. What do you make this afternoon graph? I | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
think that tells one story in terms of the changes, but actually there's | :08:23. | :08:27. | |
another graph, which I think is very important in the distribution | :08:28. | :08:31. | |
analysis impact published alongside the red book, which shows the the | :08:32. | :08:39. | |
impact of the different per centiles. The richest are paying | :08:40. | :08:43. | |
more in terms of making contribution to filling the black hole left by | :08:44. | :08:46. | |
the last Labour Government. Absolutely, correct to say that the | :08:47. | :08:50. | |
pattern would have been different if we had taken other periods of | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
coalition or Labour Government measures. This is the 15 to 20, this | :08:55. | :08:58. | |
is this Parliament, this is the pure Conservative Government. I'm | :08:59. | :09:02. | |
wondering whether there was a - did you know, for example, that the poor | :09:03. | :09:05. | |
were bearing the brunt this Parliament and the rich bearing none | :09:06. | :09:09. | |
of it? It's the first time I've seen the graph. I haven't seen the | :09:10. | :09:12. | |
workings behind it. It is something that I do look at very carefully, | :09:13. | :09:15. | |
every time having been in the Treasury, every time a red book and | :09:16. | :09:21. | |
OBR is published. The fact is by the end of this Parliament, the top 20% | :09:22. | :09:25. | |
in this country will be paying more in tax than the other 80% put | :09:26. | :09:31. | |
together. I don't want to get stuck in statistics. This graph describes | :09:32. | :09:35. | |
what's happened in this Parliament. In effect, shouldn't we worry that | :09:36. | :09:39. | |
you, in the Cabinet, nodding through these things, have not seen the most | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
basic distributional analysis of what the Government's plans are for | :09:45. | :09:48. | |
this Parliament. I agree you can go back to other parliaments and the | :09:49. | :09:51. | |
picture is more progressive, but this is what you're planning for | :09:52. | :09:54. | |
this Parliament. It was never described that was. It was never set | :09:55. | :09:58. | |
out as a now we want to give back to the rich, but is that we're all in | :09:59. | :10:04. | |
it together? I haven't seen the detailed analysis that goes | :10:05. | :10:09. | |
alongside this. I look carefully at the distributional impact analysis | :10:10. | :10:12. | |
published by the Treasury alongside the red book last week, the issue | :10:13. | :10:16. | |
about people at the top paying more, the top 1% paying 28% of income tax. | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
But look the broader point you're making - These are the changes, I | :10:21. | :10:24. | |
appreciate that, but these are the changes. This is what your | :10:25. | :10:27. | |
Government is planning for this Parliament. Are you happy to call | :10:28. | :10:35. | |
that one nation conservatism, compassionate conserve Tim -- | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
conservatism, we're all in it together, up to 8% cuts in the | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
bottom and slight increase in the people in the richest. I don't know | :10:44. | :10:47. | |
because you haven't shown me this chart before I have sat here on live | :10:48. | :10:51. | |
TV. I don't know how this takes account of the things like the | :10:52. | :10:55. | |
raising of the income tax threshold. It includes that. I could have put | :10:56. | :11:02. | |
the living wage in. That is a huge step for a xapgsate Conservative | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
Government in terms of helping people to have a living national | :11:07. | :11:09. | |
wage. It doesn't look much different if you put that in. They all look | :11:10. | :11:16. | |
like this. You, the minister, Secretary of State, don't even know | :11:17. | :11:18. | |
that's what the Government is, because you're not presented with | :11:19. | :11:22. | |
that data. I've made it clear to you that I look at the distributional | :11:23. | :11:27. | |
ill pact analysis, as I'm sure do colleagues, that's published | :11:28. | :11:30. | |
alongside the red book. I don't study the IFS figures. I'm looking | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
at the figures produced by the Treasury and the statistic that the | :11:35. | :11:39. | |
top 20% are paying more in tax, the top 1% paying 28% of income tax. We | :11:40. | :11:45. | |
made very clear last year, in the general election campaign, that yes, | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
we were elected to continue to put a balance back in the economy, to pay | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
down the deficit, to eliminate the deficit, pay down the debt. We are | :11:55. | :11:59. | |
not going to do that off the backs of the most vulnerable in society. | :12:00. | :12:02. | |
Actually Iain Duncan Smith was right to say, wasn't he, that actually the | :12:03. | :12:09. | |
welfare cuts were being made to cut capital gains tax, 600 million, to | :12:10. | :12:13. | |
cut tax rates for the people around the higher rate threshold who will | :12:14. | :12:19. | |
pay less tax, less 40% tax. That's what the pay squeeze was about, not | :12:20. | :12:23. | |
deficit reduction at all. No, it wasn't about that. There is an issue | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
with the introduction of the independence payments and the way | :12:28. | :12:30. | |
that they have worked. We were elected as a Government to bring | :12:31. | :12:34. | |
control to welfare spending. I think that's still what people very much | :12:35. | :12:39. | |
expect us to do. They also expect us to get investment from companies for | :12:40. | :12:44. | |
people to be recognised if they are making investments and they're | :12:45. | :12:47. | |
employing people. That's also what we've got to do. One of the great | :12:48. | :12:51. | |
achievements of the last Government and this current one is the | :12:52. | :12:55. | |
continuing growth in the number of jobs, two million more people | :12:56. | :12:58. | |
employed. That doesn't just happen overnight. That happens from people | :12:59. | :13:01. | |
making investment decisions to come here to employ. Some of those | :13:02. | :13:05. | |
people, as well, who have been helped back to work, by, I might | :13:06. | :13:10. | |
add, Iain Duncan Smith's reforms when he was secretary for work and | :13:11. | :13:13. | |
pensions, a record he can be enormously proud of. On Thursday on | :13:14. | :13:18. | |
Question Time, you described the PIP changes as we've got to finish our | :13:19. | :13:23. | |
consultation. Yes. Did you misspeak or had you been told to say that? | :13:24. | :13:28. | |
They did look like policy in the Budget then you turned them into | :13:29. | :13:32. | |
consultation on the Thursday night. No, I didn't misspeak. What I was | :13:33. | :13:36. | |
saying was that we still had more conversations to have about those | :13:37. | :13:39. | |
changes with members of Parliament, with disability groups, with those | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
who were affected. Yes, the formal consultation had finished, but there | :13:45. | :13:49. | |
was - But they were in the Budget book as policy and then they were | :13:50. | :13:54. | |
consultation. I mean, this is the second Budget actually George | :13:55. | :13:57. | |
Osborne has given, because last year he put tax credit changes that had | :13:58. | :14:02. | |
to be u turned. Does he not take a big knock to his reputation that | :14:03. | :14:06. | |
basically every time he announces a Budget we now expect some of it is | :14:07. | :14:11. | |
going to be withdrawn, or some of it will be described as consultation a | :14:12. | :14:15. | |
day later? There wasn't a consensus around the proposed changes to the | :14:16. | :14:20. | |
personal independence payments, not to tax credits last Autumn. Actually | :14:21. | :14:25. | |
I think it's a measure that the Government list beings to what | :14:26. | :14:29. | |
people are -- listens to what people are saying and makes changes. The | :14:30. | :14:33. | |
Chancellor took on a broken economy, not only are there two million more | :14:34. | :14:37. | |
people employed, the deficit will be down two thirds at the start of the | :14:38. | :14:41. | |
next financial year, we're the fastest growing economy in the | :14:42. | :14:43. | |
developed world. These are significant achievements. The only | :14:44. | :14:47. | |
reason we could spend 1. ?1.6 billion more on schools last week is | :14:48. | :14:50. | |
because we have that strong economy. That's the same for colleagues | :14:51. | :14:53. | |
across Government in terms of their departments. Those are big | :14:54. | :14:57. | |
achievements of this Chancellor. Just to clarify, last point, to | :14:58. | :15:02. | |
clarify, where there was confusion earlier this evening, Stephen Crabb, | :15:03. | :15:07. | |
new DWP secretary says no plans to change welfare. Most of us thought | :15:08. | :15:11. | |
he meant this Parliament. Is that how you interpripted it? Yes, I | :15:12. | :15:16. | |
think what he's saying is that there are no planned changes. There are | :15:17. | :15:19. | |
changes that have been set out to welfare previously. Already, yes. | :15:20. | :15:24. | |
Which have to work their way through, like the full | :15:25. | :15:27. | |
implementation of universal credit. Obviously, I think any of your | :15:28. | :15:33. | |
viewers watching would say it would be madness to - It could happen but | :15:34. | :15:38. | |
no plans. No plans. If everything goes to plan, more or less we've had | :15:39. | :15:42. | |
all the welfare cuts we're going to have. That is my understanding. | :15:43. | :15:47. | |
That's your understanding? If you don't understand, you're in the | :15:48. | :15:52. | |
Cabinet! How are we meant to understand if it's not clear. This | :15:53. | :15:56. | |
is the day the whole thing was meant to be resolved, you're fighting | :15:57. | :15:59. | |
back. The new Secretary of State for work and pensions was very clear. | :16:00. | :16:04. | |
There are no planned changes to welfare in this Parliament. We've | :16:05. | :16:08. | |
announced some changes. I think Stephen Crabb will be a fantastic - | :16:09. | :16:13. | |
it's a shame to have lost Iain, but Stephen will be a good Work and | :16:14. | :16:15. | |
Pensions Secretary. Thank you. Well, you may blame the problems | :16:16. | :16:20. | |
the Government is facing today on its own manifesto | :16:21. | :16:22. | |
from the general election last year. It wasn't a suicide note exactly, | :16:23. | :16:25. | |
more a guide to shooting yourself Well, those twin ambitions | :16:26. | :16:27. | |
of running a budget surplus and cutting ?12 billion in welfare, | :16:28. | :16:32. | |
so useful at election time in making Labour look weak, | :16:33. | :16:35. | |
have proved awkward in power. The words petard and | :16:36. | :16:37. | |
hoist come to mind. So, let's focus a little more | :16:38. | :16:44. | |
on where we now stand on welfare, and how far Iain Duncan Smith got | :16:45. | :16:47. | |
in delivering the Government's aims. Here's our policy | :16:48. | :16:50. | |
editor, Chris Cook. Working age welfare has been cut | :16:51. | :17:01. | |
time and again since 2010. Protests against the cuts to disability Ben | :17:02. | :17:05. | |
have become a regular occurrence. Yesterday, the now resigned Work and | :17:06. | :17:10. | |
Pensions Secretary seemed to agree with the placard wavers. So why is | :17:11. | :17:15. | |
it that George Osborne keeps going back to the welfare budget? He | :17:16. | :17:19. | |
really has few choices, he has boxed himself into that position. First of | :17:20. | :17:24. | |
all, he said he would like to run a budget surplus in 2019, which would | :17:25. | :17:27. | |
require spending cuts or tax rises to achieve, but he has said he | :17:28. | :17:33. | |
doesn't want tax rises, in fact he has pencilled in some tax cuts. And | :17:34. | :17:38. | |
there are some budget he won't touch, such as pensions and the NHS, | :17:39. | :17:44. | |
so he has very few options other than a few unprotected departments, | :17:45. | :17:47. | |
and the working age welfare budget. George Osborne has always believed | :17:48. | :17:54. | |
you can cut as much as you like for working age benefits and there is no | :17:55. | :17:58. | |
political pain, because overall the electorate don't really mind, the | :17:59. | :18:01. | |
people who vote are not affected and they just don't care. Still, it | :18:02. | :18:06. | |
wasn't supposed to be like this. The tree was we could save money on | :18:07. | :18:09. | |
welfare by reforming it, getting people into work and making sure | :18:10. | :18:13. | |
that money is focused on people who need support. I think we are showing | :18:14. | :18:18. | |
you can come up with some very radical answers if you take Welfare | :18:19. | :18:22. | |
Reform Bill, radical reform of the welfare state since Beveridge for 60 | :18:23. | :18:28. | |
years, I think it will have a transformative effect, making sure | :18:29. | :18:32. | |
that everyone is better off in work and better off working rather than | :18:33. | :18:35. | |
on benefits. An emblem of this reform was the work capability | :18:36. | :18:39. | |
assessment. Mr Duncan Smith accelerated existing plans to check | :18:40. | :18:42. | |
whether most incapacity benefit claimants should really be on | :18:43. | :18:48. | |
welfare. Idea was the work capability assessment would save | :18:49. | :18:52. | |
money. Here is the DWP 2011 forecast what would happen to the incapacity | :18:53. | :19:01. | |
benefits Bill after WPA kicked in. You can see it falling, and the | :19:02. | :19:05. | |
savings just around the corner, and here is 2013, much the same, savings | :19:06. | :19:10. | |
to come in the future. But they never arrived. The WC a failed. Here | :19:11. | :19:15. | |
is the OBR's latest forecast of what this bill will look like. You can | :19:16. | :19:21. | |
see it is rising. The assessments for those benefits are incredibly | :19:22. | :19:25. | |
conjugated, and what looks simple and Whitehall department isn't that | :19:26. | :19:30. | |
simple when you get to people's everyday lives, the complexities of | :19:31. | :19:33. | |
physical and mental health conditions, the complex co-morbidity | :19:34. | :19:40. | |
when people have all sorts of different problems affecting them, | :19:41. | :19:44. | |
and the relatively low qualified people doing the assessments just | :19:45. | :19:50. | |
can't cope. One of Mr Duncan Smith's other ideas to reform disability | :19:51. | :19:53. | |
benefit and save money was the so-called Personal Independence | :19:54. | :20:02. | |
Payment, the idea it would replace the disability allowance and save | :20:03. | :20:06. | |
20%. In practice, the replacement of DLA with PIP has only saved 5%. The | :20:07. | :20:17. | |
planned savings were only an entry on a spreadsheet, there was never a | :20:18. | :20:21. | |
plan to deliver them, they could only be delivered by having a much | :20:22. | :20:25. | |
more stringent medical test, and that wasn't practical. Universal | :20:26. | :20:30. | |
credit is a slightly different story. That wasn't a plant a | :20:31. | :20:34. | |
short-term savings, it was a plan to overhaul the whole welfare system, | :20:35. | :20:39. | |
merging six in work and out of work benefits for working age people. | :20:40. | :20:44. | |
There were supposed to be 5.5 million people on universal credit | :20:45. | :20:48. | |
by this point. So far, there are only 200,000. It is way off track, | :20:49. | :20:53. | |
and I have been questions about whether the Government without Mr | :20:54. | :20:57. | |
Duncan Smith to push it through will keep going with universal credit. | :20:58. | :21:02. | |
When it was first planned, it was going to be more generous than tax | :21:03. | :21:05. | |
credits, so the Treasury didn't mind that much that it got delayed and | :21:06. | :21:09. | |
delayed. Now it will be less generous, so there is a strong | :21:10. | :21:12. | |
incentive to the Treasury to push it through. The Treasury now projects | :21:13. | :21:18. | |
that if it can get universal credit approach, it can save ?2.5 billion | :21:19. | :21:22. | |
per year this Parliament. Roger Osborne will need that to help it is | :21:23. | :21:25. | |
surplus target, because in the last few days, it became harder to watch | :21:26. | :21:30. | |
-- cut working age Alfei any further. Chris Kirkland. | :21:31. | :21:33. | |
I'm joined by Andrew Mitchell MP, and Charlotte Pickles, | :21:34. | :21:35. | |
who was an expert advisor to Iain Duncan Smith under | :21:36. | :21:37. | |
the coalition Government, and is now senior research director | :21:38. | :21:39. | |
Good evening. Charlotte, two objectives, saving money, just | :21:40. | :21:48. | |
getting money out of the welfare budget, and reforming welfare. Do | :21:49. | :21:53. | |
you think they put too much money on saving rather than reforming? I | :21:54. | :21:56. | |
think that is what ended up happening, yes. If you look at what | :21:57. | :22:00. | |
Iain Duncan Smith went into Government to do, it was to deliver | :22:01. | :22:03. | |
a better welfare system that got better outcomes for the people that | :22:04. | :22:09. | |
received those monies. That tension with the Treasury wanting to save | :22:10. | :22:12. | |
money, to take billions out of welfare, clearly made that very | :22:13. | :22:16. | |
difficult, and I think the best illustration is universal credit | :22:17. | :22:19. | |
where division is absolutely right but we are seeing that constantly | :22:20. | :22:22. | |
chip away at because savings are needed. Do you accept that? I accept | :22:23. | :22:27. | |
completely the tension between reforming the system and saving | :22:28. | :22:33. | |
money, and we have to save money in tackling the deficit, and welfare | :22:34. | :22:38. | |
was where the money is. But there will always be a tension between the | :22:39. | :22:43. | |
Treasury, there was 20 years ago when I was a minister in what was | :22:44. | :22:48. | |
then not DWP but Social Security, there is always that tension, and at | :22:49. | :22:53. | |
a time of austerities, that tension is very great indeed. Which | :22:54. | :22:57. | |
Charlotte, you're not just blaming the Treasury for the failures of | :22:58. | :23:00. | |
Iain Duncan Smith and you working for him to actually deliver the | :23:01. | :23:04. | |
reforms? Everything he touched didn't quite go to plan, did it? | :23:05. | :23:08. | |
Universal credit is a fraction of what it should be, the work | :23:09. | :23:12. | |
capability assessment didn't work, ESA didn't save the money they | :23:13. | :23:15. | |
expected, so none of it has really worked. I don't think anyone would | :23:16. | :23:21. | |
say this is a difficult task, but he is a man who is incredibly | :23:22. | :23:24. | |
principled and committed to trying to deliver a better welfare system, | :23:25. | :23:29. | |
and if you look at the early indications, the evaluations of | :23:30. | :23:32. | |
universal credit, people who are on it are getting into work faster, | :23:33. | :23:36. | |
staying in work longer and earning more competitive people who are not | :23:37. | :23:41. | |
on it. The WC a hasn't worked, we need a different model, but it was | :23:42. | :23:46. | |
designed by Labour, and we picked that up. But the things that didn't | :23:47. | :23:52. | |
work were not not working, because the Treasury had tried to save | :23:53. | :23:57. | |
money. Was it the not saving money that stopped it rolling out, all the | :23:58. | :24:02. | |
work capability assessment failing? They were misconceived. With | :24:03. | :24:07. | |
universal credit, there have been well rehearsed challenges around IT, | :24:08. | :24:10. | |
problems in that. You can't blame the Treasury. Based on a challenge | :24:11. | :24:15. | |
where you have a different department that is constantly coming | :24:16. | :24:20. | |
back, budget after spending review after Autumn Statement Sane, give us | :24:21. | :24:23. | |
more money, the distraction that causes, the focus that you have on | :24:24. | :24:35. | |
trying to say, trying to deliver all the time, but they are important | :24:36. | :24:39. | |
reforms. Andrew Mitchell, did you see any weight in the IDS argument | :24:40. | :24:43. | |
about pension benefits, that the balance between working age and | :24:44. | :24:48. | |
pension cuts has been far too heavy on working age population? I think | :24:49. | :24:54. | |
it is an issue, but we were clear in the general election that we would | :24:55. | :24:57. | |
maintain those pension benefits, and politicians should stand by the | :24:58. | :25:02. | |
promises they make. But you would rather they haven't made that | :25:03. | :25:06. | |
promise? I think it is important to look after pensioners because they | :25:07. | :25:11. | |
have much less flexible to in their earning and spending power, and | :25:12. | :25:16. | |
there needs also increase, and most of them have given this country a | :25:17. | :25:19. | |
great deal in their working life, so I wouldn't say that was a part of | :25:20. | :25:25. | |
the problem, but there is always this tension, and these big | :25:26. | :25:29. | |
projects. They are always bedevilled by problems, I think universal | :25:30. | :25:32. | |
credit is a good change and we have to persevere with it and get it | :25:33. | :25:36. | |
right. Compassionate conservatism. Who is the guardian of this? Is it | :25:37. | :25:41. | |
Iain Duncan Smith who many think of as being on the right of the party, | :25:42. | :25:47. | |
the more harsh, you would say, or is it George Osborne who is now being | :25:48. | :25:50. | |
portrayed as the guy who is trying to slash benefits? I am absolutely | :25:51. | :25:58. | |
clear that it is both and they both have a different role to play, the | :25:59. | :26:01. | |
role of Iain Duncan Smith is to reform the system. He has after all | :26:02. | :26:07. | |
got 150,000 disabled people back into work for the first time in each | :26:08. | :26:12. | |
of the last two years, and the George Osborne, a one nation | :26:13. | :26:14. | |
compassionate conservatives certainly because he has to make | :26:15. | :26:19. | |
sure we don't imperil the future of the next generations by the debts we | :26:20. | :26:22. | |
have run up on the size of the deficit today which have got to be | :26:23. | :26:25. | |
tackled. Who do you think is the more compassionate of those two? You | :26:26. | :26:30. | |
can't do compassionate conservatism without of economy that is working, | :26:31. | :26:33. | |
and the Prime Minister made that point today. You can't have | :26:34. | :26:36. | |
opportunity of jobs are not there, and that is what we have had, we | :26:37. | :26:41. | |
have had an incredible jobs growth that has enabled people to go to | :26:42. | :26:45. | |
work, so I will sidestep that and recognise that there is value in | :26:46. | :26:49. | |
both. Thank you both very much indeed. | :26:50. | :26:51. | |
When President Obama steps aside in ten months' time, | :26:52. | :26:53. | |
to who knows what, what will his foreign policy legacy be? | :26:54. | :26:56. | |
America's hostility to the country had looked anachronistic, | :26:57. | :27:02. | |
And President Obama has rectified that by opening relations. | :27:03. | :27:05. | |
But how big a deal is that, given that in geopolitical terms, | :27:06. | :27:08. | |
Cuba is not as significant as it used to be in the Cold War? | :27:09. | :27:11. | |
Our diplomatic editor, Mark Urban, has been wondering. | :27:12. | :27:16. | |
What it takes to build a foreign policy legacy these days anyway? The | :27:17. | :27:25. | |
White House has put its own footage out underlying the historic nature | :27:26. | :27:31. | |
of this visit. But while there was plenty of excitement in the | :27:32. | :27:34. | |
presidential party, they Havana glanced in these shots look near | :27:35. | :27:38. | |
deserted, controlled, a stage for a tightly scripted political drama. | :27:39. | :27:46. | |
The road ahead will not be easy. Fortunately we don't have to swim | :27:47. | :27:49. | |
with sharks in order to achieve the goals that you and I have set forth. | :27:50. | :27:58. | |
As you say here in Cuba, despite the difficulties, we will continue to | :27:59. | :28:03. | |
move forward. It is a historic visit. We will see how | :28:04. | :28:08. | |
transformative the policy, obviously there is still resistance in Cuba in | :28:09. | :28:11. | |
certain areas, resistance here in the United States. The payoff is | :28:12. | :28:18. | |
going to take some time, but I think as a policy wager it is a reasonable | :28:19. | :28:27. | |
one. But with today's ceremony at a monument to Cuba's revolutionary | :28:28. | :28:31. | |
heroes, Mr Obama found himself overlooked by shade of are and under | :28:32. | :28:42. | |
fire at home. -- Che Guevara. The charge that he is consorting with | :28:43. | :28:52. | |
the dictator country. He is trying to address an issue that is | :28:53. | :28:54. | |
important to his ideological and of the spectrum, the far left who sees | :28:55. | :29:00. | |
Castro is some kind of romantic figure, and more to the point, the | :29:01. | :29:05. | |
United States as doing wrong by the Cuban people. I think that shows his | :29:06. | :29:10. | |
misunderstanding of the reality. With Cuba as with many other aspects | :29:11. | :29:14. | |
of what the president might hope for is his legacy, parties -- partisan | :29:15. | :29:26. | |
clashes could lead a president to force on a policy that the Obama | :29:27. | :29:30. | |
administration has invested much in. I think it is interesting that it is | :29:31. | :29:33. | |
not simply between the parties but within the parties. You have the | :29:34. | :29:38. | |
foreign policy divide between Secretary Clinton and Senator | :29:39. | :29:43. | |
Sanders just the same way you have them between Mr Trump, Ted Cruz and | :29:44. | :29:56. | |
Senator Kasich. That is a reality that all too often has come to | :29:57. | :29:59. | |
characterise my nation's capitol, and has made it harder for the | :30:00. | :30:01. | |
United States to be consistently reliable. Events have also | :30:02. | :30:07. | |
frustrated key elements of the Obama agenda, like trying to get out of | :30:08. | :30:12. | |
Iraq and Afghanistan. Even today in Havana, he had to pay tribute to a | :30:13. | :30:16. | |
US Marine killed in Iraq at the weekend, and the Pentagon | :30:17. | :30:21. | |
acknowledged it now has nearly 4000 troops trying to stabilise the | :30:22. | :30:26. | |
country the president had once pulled them out of. If Cuba has been | :30:27. | :30:31. | |
a success for the President's policy, reconciling with adverse | :30:32. | :30:35. | |
arrays has been an even bigger one in the shape of the Iran nuclear | :30:36. | :30:40. | |
deal. But that has taken a huge amount of diplomatic and political | :30:41. | :30:44. | |
effort, dominating the diplomacy of his second term. And some would | :30:45. | :30:49. | |
argue it has led him to make too many concessions to countries like | :30:50. | :30:54. | |
Russia and Iran who fundamentally do not stand for the same interest as | :30:55. | :30:58. | |
the United States. And it's the turmoil in the Middle East that | :30:59. | :31:03. | |
leads even supporters to accuse Mr Obama of aggregating leadership. The | :31:04. | :31:09. | |
world is such that unless the United States leads, the bad guys show up, | :31:10. | :31:14. | |
and we sat on the sidelines in Syria not wanting to really get involved, | :31:15. | :31:21. | |
for understandable reasons, but we are strong on diplomacy, stronger on | :31:22. | :31:25. | |
trying to work with the opposition, or else recognise that Assad is in | :31:26. | :31:31. | |
power and our number-1 goal to get ices out of it safe haven in Iraq | :31:32. | :31:40. | |
and Syria. -- Isis. And that is where we should have been four years | :31:41. | :31:45. | |
ago. Ending a blockade on Cuba that hasn't made sense the decades might | :31:46. | :31:48. | |
seem like a small victory to celebrate, but it is a message of | :31:49. | :31:55. | |
how hard it has been for Mr Obama to craft distinctive foreign policy | :31:56. | :31:58. | |
legacy that at this stage he is working it to the max. | :31:59. | :32:01. | |
Only ten years old today, and yet it's already almost passed | :32:02. | :32:06. | |
through the whole life cycle of a technology company, | :32:07. | :32:08. | |
from hope, to excitement, to ubiquity and now to many | :32:09. | :32:11. | |
Once upon a time, ten years ago, in fact, a little bird was born. Its | :32:12. | :32:28. | |
USP, tweeting in only 140 characters. | :32:29. | :32:41. | |
When it comes to breaking news it's hard to imagine operating without | :32:42. | :32:52. | |
Twitter, even the raid on Osama Bin Laden's compound was unknowingly | :32:53. | :32:59. | |
tweeted by an IT consulted nearby. First tweeted, "Helicopter hovering | :33:00. | :33:07. | |
here is a rare event." Following that was it clear what he had heard. | :33:08. | :33:12. | |
Then there's the service Twitter offers as an information | :33:13. | :33:15. | |
disseminator. Take the Japanese tsunami in the same year, with many | :33:16. | :33:19. | |
mobile networks and telephone land lines down after the earthquake, | :33:20. | :33:26. | |
terrified residents went to Twitter and of course, Facebook, for | :33:27. | :33:30. | |
guidance. Evacuate to higher ground was the advice from government. Many | :33:31. | :33:34. | |
got that and other information about what to pack in an emergency kit | :33:35. | :33:39. | |
from social media. But recently, this little bird has had many an | :33:40. | :33:45. | |
obstacle in its path. The word is that Facebook, Twitter's bigger, | :33:46. | :33:47. | |
more predatory rival, is winning out. It's been hard to Monday ties | :33:48. | :33:52. | |
Twitter's value and once the market wised up that growth in users was | :33:53. | :33:59. | |
slowing, the share price plummeted. Twitter's reputation is built on its | :34:00. | :34:03. | |
influence on popular opinion. The Arab Spring, seen by some as | :34:04. | :34:07. | |
possibly its biggest coup, was dubbed the Twitter revolution. That | :34:08. | :34:10. | |
meant the site was harnessed to spread the word, to galvanise the | :34:11. | :34:16. | |
people. We can't talk about a Twitter revolution. We cannot talk | :34:17. | :34:20. | |
about a Facebook revolution. It's the revolution of the people on the | :34:21. | :34:25. | |
ground, people who faced the tear gas and the bullets. Tunisia, | :34:26. | :34:33. | |
Twitter is not very popular in comparison to Facebook. But let me | :34:34. | :34:39. | |
say that Twitter helped enriching international media. For some time, | :34:40. | :34:44. | |
not just the international media, but politicians too really believed | :34:45. | :34:47. | |
that Twitter was a powerful tool to connect with those difficult to | :34:48. | :34:51. | |
catch demographics, particularly the young. Four more years tweeted | :34:52. | :34:55. | |
Barack Obama on his second term win. Within an hour it was the site's | :34:56. | :35:01. | |
most popular tweet. This president, Twitter's fourth most followed | :35:02. | :35:04. | |
person, considered by many to have harnessed the power of social media. | :35:05. | :35:11. | |
But four years on, certainly when it comes to British elections, Twitter | :35:12. | :35:14. | |
hasn't played the role that was expected. Linton Crosby the | :35:15. | :35:19. | |
Conservative election strategist reportedly didn't believe in it as a | :35:20. | :35:24. | |
campaigning tool. Labour learned hard lessons about Twitter's | :35:25. | :35:28. | |
influence. I think we did think Twitter was important. We relied on | :35:29. | :35:33. | |
it a bit too much. I think we got a false impression because we were | :35:34. | :35:37. | |
getting a very good, strong feed back from Twitter, I think we | :35:38. | :35:39. | |
thought that's the way the whole country was going. Of course, that | :35:40. | :35:44. | |
didn't happen as we found to our shock and horror when that exit poll | :35:45. | :35:50. | |
dropped at 9. 55pm. A lot is asked of this little bird. If questions | :35:51. | :35:55. | |
mount over its ability to influence opinion, it could find itself not a | :35:56. | :35:57. | |
bird who can fly but a dead duck. Joining me in the studio now | :35:58. | :36:00. | |
is the feminist activist Caroline Criado-Perez, | :36:01. | :36:05. | |
who has 35,000 followers on Twitter. And live from New York, | :36:06. | :36:08. | |
financial journalist Felix Salmon, Nobody told necessity was going to | :36:09. | :36:22. | |
be a competition! Not a competition. Forget the business model for a | :36:23. | :36:26. | |
moment, we will talk about that. But as a service, how do you rate | :36:27. | :36:29. | |
Twitter and what it does and delivers? It's inexpensible. I would | :36:30. | :36:38. | |
rather have my tweet deck open than have a bloomburg, which is worth | :36:39. | :36:43. | |
$20,000 a month. It's the only way to keep up with what's going on, to | :36:44. | :36:46. | |
have conversations with the people who are in the heart of things, to | :36:47. | :36:55. | |
have - it has an incredibler is endipity engine. -- serendipity | :36:56. | :37:02. | |
engine. It's nothing like it has ever existed and it's amazing. You | :37:03. | :37:06. | |
use it a lot, don't you? I use it a fair amount. People suggested to you | :37:07. | :37:10. | |
you could attach your keys to your dog, so that you wouldn't lose your | :37:11. | :37:14. | |
keys. It's full of really useful insight. That's true. I absolutely | :37:15. | :37:18. | |
agree. Yeah, this morning I turned to Twitter because again I locked my | :37:19. | :37:24. | |
self-out of my flat and you decided there must be a solution. Twitter is | :37:25. | :37:30. | |
all of those things. But obviously, it has its drawbacks. The draw backs | :37:31. | :37:34. | |
are that people are really angry on there. It's not just about rape and | :37:35. | :37:38. | |
death threats. I was thinking the other day, I tweeted about putting, | :37:39. | :37:42. | |
a guy replied telling me that feminism was cancer. It was a nice, | :37:43. | :37:46. | |
happy tweet. I didn't really understand it. There's a lot of | :37:47. | :37:52. | |
anger. You got a lot of nasty stuff, didn't you, after you led a campaign | :37:53. | :37:58. | |
to have Jane Austin on a banknote. That was the Bank of England's | :37:59. | :38:03. | |
choice. It was just female representation, just any way, never | :38:04. | :38:07. | |
mind. But it was horrible. I'm amazed you stayed on. You were | :38:08. | :38:12. | |
having death threats. I did, I had three weeks' worth of a bombardment | :38:13. | :38:15. | |
of graphic and detailed rape and death threats. They found an address | :38:16. | :38:21. | |
and were posting that all over the internet, all over Twitter. It was | :38:22. | :38:25. | |
terrifying. I stayed on for a number of reasons, one is I'm incredibly | :38:26. | :38:29. | |
stubborn. The other reasons is what Felix was talking about. It's an | :38:30. | :38:32. | |
incredibly useful and important tool. It's a journalist, a political | :38:33. | :38:38. | |
activist, nothing can replace what Twitter does at the moment. It would | :38:39. | :38:41. | |
be nice if it didn't come with the side order of rape threats. You said | :38:42. | :38:46. | |
it's not just an echo chamber. For a lot of people it is just an echo | :38:47. | :38:51. | |
chamber, isn't it? No, I feel, I mean you can set it up that way, if | :38:52. | :39:01. | |
you want. I feel like you can discover so much with Twitter that | :39:02. | :39:05. | |
because people are constantly lirchinging out and retweeting | :39:06. | :39:09. | |
people and linking to sites you've never been to before, remember, it's | :39:10. | :39:14. | |
a path to the broader internet. This sets it apart from Facebook, | :39:15. | :39:19. | |
Instagram, Snapchat, all the other social networks because they-to be | :39:20. | :39:24. | |
enclosed, self-contained. Twitter is much more - it has its fingers | :39:25. | :39:29. | |
deeper in the web. You learn new things and discover new sites every | :39:30. | :39:33. | |
day on Twitter. Now Felix, just the business plan, because the business | :39:34. | :39:36. | |
isn't really rocking in the way that I think the people who bought shares | :39:37. | :39:40. | |
originally might have hoped. What is wrong with the business plan? Well, | :39:41. | :39:48. | |
when Twitter went public, I was quite voke alabout the -- vocal | :39:49. | :39:51. | |
about the idea that the best way to get value out of Twitter was just to | :39:52. | :39:57. | |
use it rather than buy shares in the hope they would go up. Maybe it | :39:58. | :40:01. | |
doesn't make a lot of sense as a $30 billion corporation. All | :40:02. | :40:04. | |
corporations have some kind of value. Twitter's value might be | :40:05. | :40:07. | |
lower than what the stock market is saying right now. It might be | :40:08. | :40:12. | |
higher, who knows. I feel that the problem with Twitter is that it went | :40:13. | :40:16. | |
public and now people are judging it by its share price instead of | :40:17. | :40:19. | |
judging by the effect it has in the world. Just compare it briefly to | :40:20. | :40:24. | |
Facebook. How do you use the two, separate the two? I think that I | :40:25. | :40:29. | |
probably speak more freely on Facebook because of the - You | :40:30. | :40:33. | |
control your circle more. I control who see it's. I don't have to worry | :40:34. | :40:38. | |
about rape threats or telling me I'm cancer because I spoke about | :40:39. | :40:46. | |
pudding. 1. 6 billion monthly users on Facebook, 320 million on Twitter. | :40:47. | :40:50. | |
I use Twitter to get my message to a wider audience. In Facebook I'm | :40:51. | :40:55. | |
preach is to the converted. On the whole they agree with emany. With | :40:56. | :41:00. | |
Twitter I have a chance to talk to people who don't agree with me. | :41:01. | :41:04. | |
That's an important tool. Thank you both very much indeed. | :41:05. | :41:06. | |
Newsnight is back tomorrow. I'm here then. Good night. | :41:07. | :41:21. | |
Hello. It looks like a chilly start to the day on Tuesday, with a touch | :41:22. | :41:28. | |
of frost in a few spots and patches of mist and fog. Apart from that | :41:29. | :41:32. | |
it's a bright start to the day. Cloud amounts increase into the | :41:33. | :41:35. | |
afternoon, leaving southern and eastern areas with a few spells of | :41:36. | :41:38. | |
sunshine. Further north and west you are, it's likely to be cloudy, but | :41:39. | :41:43. | |
dry in Northern Ireland. The odd spot of light rain or drizzle for | :41:44. | :41:44. |