21/03/2016 Newsnight


21/03/2016

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If ever the words "get a grip" had a use, it's now.

:00:00.:00:07.

Three days after the resignation of Iain Duncan Smith,

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the Government's still trying to fight its way out of a corner.

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We will continue with this approach in full, because we are a modern,

:00:17.:00:19.

compassionate, one-nation Conservative Government

:00:20.:00:22.

and I commend this statement to the House.

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But it's been a day of retreat and discomfort.

:00:26.:00:28.

Will the Prime Minister give us an assurance that this will be

:00:29.:00:32.

the Chancellor of the Exchequer's last Budget?

:00:33.:00:37.

Education Secretary Nicky Morgan is with us to bring order

:00:38.:00:42.

We don't view Cuba as a threat to the United States.

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I hope that my visit here indicates the degree to which we're setting

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a new chapter in Cuban-American relations.

:00:54.:00:57.

President Obama goes to Cuba, but will his political foes at home

:00:58.:01:00.

permit him this foreign policy legacy?

:01:01.:01:04.

Will we still be bothering to tweet at 20?

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You are talking to a lot of people who are already converted

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to your cause, particularly for the left.

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Twitter is a very big echo chamber of conversations.

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If you haven't followed, there are essentially three threads

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A big U-turn on welfare cuts, which it has to be said,

:01:35.:01:40.

was announced in some confusion and ambiguity.

:01:41.:01:42.

A full-blown crisis of Government authority, with pervasive

:01:43.:01:47.

back-biting and negative briefing, and an appearance of disarray,

:01:48.:01:49.

all of which justifies those "Tories in turmoil" headlines.

:01:50.:01:52.

And thirdly, there's a drama concerning the personalities,

:01:53.:01:55.

in particular, Chancellor George Osborne's hopes of rising

:01:56.:01:58.

Let's start with him and the politics of this

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Here's our political editor, David Grossman.

:02:04.:02:11.

In that well-worn Westminster cliche, there is a hole

:02:12.:02:13.

in the Chancellor's Budget, but really, set

:02:14.:02:16.

in the context of total Government spending,

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There is a gaping void in the Government, or more

:02:19.:02:24.

specifically, the Chancellor's reputation.

:02:25.:02:27.

Labour managed to drag a minister to the Commons today to answer

:02:28.:02:30.

a question on this Budget disarray, but it wasn't the Chancellor,

:02:31.:02:32.

Does the Shadow Chancellor really want to talk

:02:33.:02:38.

The Government, though, has climbed down on not only 1. ?1.3 billion

:02:39.:02:52.

worth of disability benefit cuts, but also, to make sure it wins

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tomorrow's Budget vote, it's conceding Opposition amendments on

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VAT on tap upons and on -- tampons and on solar panels and insulation,

:03:03.:03:07.

putting the Government in possible conflict with the European

:03:08.:03:09.

Commission. The Budget has a big hole in it. It's up to the Prime

:03:10.:03:14.

Minister to persuade his great friend to either come here and

:03:15.:03:18.

explain how he's going to fill that hole or perhaps he should consider

:03:19.:03:22.

his position and look for something else to do, because clearly, he

:03:23.:03:26.

hasn't been very successful at producing a balanced Budget in the

:03:27.:03:30.

interests of everyone in this country, particularly those with

:03:31.:03:36.

disabilities. This was easily the worst weekend for the Government

:03:37.:03:40.

since the election. The departing Work and Pensions Secretary laying

:03:41.:03:43.

into the Government and the Chancellor in a round of interviews.

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Talk to enough Conservative MPs around this place and it becomes

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very clear that the disquiet in the party right now isn't about welfare

:03:52.:03:58.

per se. Indeed, many of Mr Osborne's and Mr Cameron's severest critics

:03:59.:04:01.

don't agree with Iain Duncan Smith on the matter. No, it's more about

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the way that those at the top of the Conservative Party treat those lower

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down, the allegation you constantly hear is they're too dismissive of

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those with traditional conservative views. There was still no sign of a

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Chancellor in Downing Street today. Instead the Prime Minister was

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leaving for the Commons to make a statement on last week's EU Summit,

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after apparently reacting with a four letter tirade at Iain Duncan

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Smith resignation last Friday, today he was complimentary about his

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former Cabinet colleague My right honourable friend contributed an

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enormous amount to the work of this Government and he can be proud of

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what he achieved. Mr Speaker, let me say this, this Government will

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continue to give the highest priority to improving the life

:04:50.:04:51.

chances of the poorest in our country. That tone was well received

:04:52.:04:58.

on the Conservative benches, where many are feeling bruised and even

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insulted, particularly by the way the Chancellor and the Prime

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Minister have treated Conservative advocates of leaving the EU. I don't

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wish to be critical of the Prime Minister. I think there's plenty of

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time to get this right. I think his judgment of the mood in the House

:05:14.:05:16.

today is a sign that he's perfectly able to get it right. He was very

:05:17.:05:20.

respectful of people who wish to leave the European Union. He

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understands our passion for a more democratic, freer country that can

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spend more of its own money. He just happens to think there are arguments

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on the other side. That's the tone he has to strike so that the party

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comes together easily after all the exertions of the referendum through

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to June. Another blow to George Osborne came from Iain Duncan Smith'

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replacement at work and pensions, Stephen Crabb. In confirming a halt

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to the planned disability benefit cuts, he took a swipe at Government

:05:49.:05:53.

by balance sheet. As the Prime Minister indicated on Friday, I can

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tell the House that we will not be going ahead with the changes to PIP

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that had been put forward. I am absolutely clear, Mr Speaker, that a

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compassionate and farewell fair system should not just be about

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numbers. Behind every statistic there is a human being. And

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perhaps... Perhaps sometimes in Government we forget that. There

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was, though, some confusion as to whether the Government was now

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abandoning all welfare cuts for the rest of the Parliament. The

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Chancellor-shaped hole in today's events will be filled tomorrow by

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the man himself, who will speak in defence of his Budget and his

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reputation. Something to look forward to.

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Well, the Education Secretary, Nicky Morgan, is here to help us

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understand what's going on in her Government.

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Very good evening to you. Goning. Good evening. Do you think the

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Government lost sight of compassionate conservatism agenda in

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the last couple of years, that it became too much about saving money,

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at any expense, even from vulnerable people? No, I don't think that at

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all. Certainly not in my area of reg indication reform, where we -- of

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education reform. Where we are making sure that every child,

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regardless of birth or background, gets the education they're entitled

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to. Not in terms of the Treasury, or in terms of the manifesto. One of

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the biggest things has been about taking people out of paying income

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tax. 31 million people are paying less tax now than in 2010. The

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introduction of the national living wage, all of those things and many

:07:32.:07:36.

other reforms announcements demonstrate that we are, as the

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Prime Minister said at the end of his statement, a modern,

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compassionate Conservative Government. I want you to look at a

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graph. This is from the IFS. On the left the incomes of the poorest and

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how they're going to change with tax and benefit cuts over this

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Parliament. On the right, the incomes of the richest. As you go

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from left to right, the poorest to the richest and the big downward

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bars are the percentage losses in net income. What you basically see

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is that the poorest are losing 5% to 8% or more of their net income. The

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top people on the right, the richest, are losing almost nothing,

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with the proposed changes. What do you make this afternoon graph? I

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think that tells one story in terms of the changes, but actually there's

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another graph, which I think is very important in the distribution

:08:28.:08:31.

analysis impact published alongside the red book, which shows the the

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impact of the different per centiles. The richest are paying

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more in terms of making contribution to filling the black hole left by

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the last Labour Government. Absolutely, correct to say that the

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pattern would have been different if we had taken other periods of

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coalition or Labour Government measures. This is the 15 to 20, this

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is this Parliament, this is the pure Conservative Government. I'm

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wondering whether there was a - did you know, for example, that the poor

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were bearing the brunt this Parliament and the rich bearing none

:09:06.:09:09.

of it? It's the first time I've seen the graph. I haven't seen the

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workings behind it. It is something that I do look at very carefully,

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every time having been in the Treasury, every time a red book and

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OBR is published. The fact is by the end of this Parliament, the top 20%

:09:22.:09:25.

in this country will be paying more in tax than the other 80% put

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together. I don't want to get stuck in statistics. This graph describes

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what's happened in this Parliament. In effect, shouldn't we worry that

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you, in the Cabinet, nodding through these things, have not seen the most

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basic distributional analysis of what the Government's plans are for

:09:45.:09:48.

this Parliament. I agree you can go back to other parliaments and the

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picture is more progressive, but this is what you're planning for

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this Parliament. It was never described that was. It was never set

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out as a now we want to give back to the rich, but is that we're all in

:09:59.:10:04.

it together? I haven't seen the detailed analysis that goes

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alongside this. I look carefully at the distributional impact analysis

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published by the Treasury alongside the red book last week, the issue

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about people at the top paying more, the top 1% paying 28% of income tax.

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But look the broader point you're making - These are the changes, I

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appreciate that, but these are the changes. This is what your

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Government is planning for this Parliament. Are you happy to call

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that one nation conservatism, compassionate conserve Tim --

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conservatism, we're all in it together, up to 8% cuts in the

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bottom and slight increase in the people in the richest. I don't know

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because you haven't shown me this chart before I have sat here on live

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TV. I don't know how this takes account of the things like the

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raising of the income tax threshold. It includes that. I could have put

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the living wage in. That is a huge step for a xapgsate Conservative

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Government in terms of helping people to have a living national

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wage. It doesn't look much different if you put that in. They all look

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like this. You, the minister, Secretary of State, don't even know

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that's what the Government is, because you're not presented with

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that data. I've made it clear to you that I look at the distributional

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ill pact analysis, as I'm sure do colleagues, that's published

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alongside the red book. I don't study the IFS figures. I'm looking

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at the figures produced by the Treasury and the statistic that the

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top 20% are paying more in tax, the top 1% paying 28% of income tax. We

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made very clear last year, in the general election campaign, that yes,

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we were elected to continue to put a balance back in the economy, to pay

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down the deficit, to eliminate the deficit, pay down the debt. We are

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not going to do that off the backs of the most vulnerable in society.

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Actually Iain Duncan Smith was right to say, wasn't he, that actually the

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welfare cuts were being made to cut capital gains tax, 600 million, to

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cut tax rates for the people around the higher rate threshold who will

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pay less tax, less 40% tax. That's what the pay squeeze was about, not

:12:20.:12:23.

deficit reduction at all. No, it wasn't about that. There is an issue

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with the introduction of the independence payments and the way

:12:28.:12:30.

that they have worked. We were elected as a Government to bring

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control to welfare spending. I think that's still what people very much

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expect us to do. They also expect us to get investment from companies for

:12:40.:12:44.

people to be recognised if they are making investments and they're

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employing people. That's also what we've got to do. One of the great

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achievements of the last Government and this current one is the

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continuing growth in the number of jobs, two million more people

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employed. That doesn't just happen overnight. That happens from people

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making investment decisions to come here to employ. Some of those

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people, as well, who have been helped back to work, by, I might

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add, Iain Duncan Smith's reforms when he was secretary for work and

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pensions, a record he can be enormously proud of. On Thursday on

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Question Time, you described the PIP changes as we've got to finish our

:13:19.:13:23.

consultation. Yes. Did you misspeak or had you been told to say that?

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They did look like policy in the Budget then you turned them into

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consultation on the Thursday night. No, I didn't misspeak. What I was

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saying was that we still had more conversations to have about those

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changes with members of Parliament, with disability groups, with those

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who were affected. Yes, the formal consultation had finished, but there

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was - But they were in the Budget book as policy and then they were

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consultation. I mean, this is the second Budget actually George

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Osborne has given, because last year he put tax credit changes that had

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to be u turned. Does he not take a big knock to his reputation that

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basically every time he announces a Budget we now expect some of it is

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going to be withdrawn, or some of it will be described as consultation a

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day later? There wasn't a consensus around the proposed changes to the

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personal independence payments, not to tax credits last Autumn. Actually

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I think it's a measure that the Government list beings to what

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people are -- listens to what people are saying and makes changes. The

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Chancellor took on a broken economy, not only are there two million more

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people employed, the deficit will be down two thirds at the start of the

:14:38.:14:41.

next financial year, we're the fastest growing economy in the

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developed world. These are significant achievements. The only

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reason we could spend 1. ?1.6 billion more on schools last week is

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because we have that strong economy. That's the same for colleagues

:14:51.:14:53.

across Government in terms of their departments. Those are big

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achievements of this Chancellor. Just to clarify, last point, to

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clarify, where there was confusion earlier this evening, Stephen Crabb,

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new DWP secretary says no plans to change welfare. Most of us thought

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he meant this Parliament. Is that how you interpripted it? Yes, I

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think what he's saying is that there are no planned changes. There are

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changes that have been set out to welfare previously. Already, yes.

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Which have to work their way through, like the full

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implementation of universal credit. Obviously, I think any of your

:15:28.:15:33.

viewers watching would say it would be madness to - It could happen but

:15:34.:15:38.

no plans. No plans. If everything goes to plan, more or less we've had

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all the welfare cuts we're going to have. That is my understanding.

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That's your understanding? If you don't understand, you're in the

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Cabinet! How are we meant to understand if it's not clear. This

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is the day the whole thing was meant to be resolved, you're fighting

:15:57.:15:59.

back. The new Secretary of State for work and pensions was very clear.

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There are no planned changes to welfare in this Parliament. We've

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announced some changes. I think Stephen Crabb will be a fantastic -

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it's a shame to have lost Iain, but Stephen will be a good Work and

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Pensions Secretary. Thank you. Well, you may blame the problems

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the Government is facing today on its own manifesto

:16:21.:16:22.

from the general election last year. It wasn't a suicide note exactly,

:16:23.:16:25.

more a guide to shooting yourself Well, those twin ambitions

:16:26.:16:27.

of running a budget surplus and cutting ?12 billion in welfare,

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so useful at election time in making Labour look weak,

:16:33.:16:35.

have proved awkward in power. The words petard and

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hoist come to mind. So, let's focus a little more

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on where we now stand on welfare, and how far Iain Duncan Smith got

:16:45.:16:47.

in delivering the Government's aims. Here's our policy

:16:48.:16:50.

editor, Chris Cook. Working age welfare has been cut

:16:51.:17:01.

time and again since 2010. Protests against the cuts to disability Ben

:17:02.:17:05.

have become a regular occurrence. Yesterday, the now resigned Work and

:17:06.:17:10.

Pensions Secretary seemed to agree with the placard wavers. So why is

:17:11.:17:15.

it that George Osborne keeps going back to the welfare budget? He

:17:16.:17:19.

really has few choices, he has boxed himself into that position. First of

:17:20.:17:24.

all, he said he would like to run a budget surplus in 2019, which would

:17:25.:17:27.

require spending cuts or tax rises to achieve, but he has said he

:17:28.:17:33.

doesn't want tax rises, in fact he has pencilled in some tax cuts. And

:17:34.:17:38.

there are some budget he won't touch, such as pensions and the NHS,

:17:39.:17:44.

so he has very few options other than a few unprotected departments,

:17:45.:17:47.

and the working age welfare budget. George Osborne has always believed

:17:48.:17:54.

you can cut as much as you like for working age benefits and there is no

:17:55.:17:58.

political pain, because overall the electorate don't really mind, the

:17:59.:18:01.

people who vote are not affected and they just don't care. Still, it

:18:02.:18:06.

wasn't supposed to be like this. The tree was we could save money on

:18:07.:18:09.

welfare by reforming it, getting people into work and making sure

:18:10.:18:13.

that money is focused on people who need support. I think we are showing

:18:14.:18:18.

you can come up with some very radical answers if you take Welfare

:18:19.:18:22.

Reform Bill, radical reform of the welfare state since Beveridge for 60

:18:23.:18:28.

years, I think it will have a transformative effect, making sure

:18:29.:18:32.

that everyone is better off in work and better off working rather than

:18:33.:18:35.

on benefits. An emblem of this reform was the work capability

:18:36.:18:39.

assessment. Mr Duncan Smith accelerated existing plans to check

:18:40.:18:42.

whether most incapacity benefit claimants should really be on

:18:43.:18:48.

welfare. Idea was the work capability assessment would save

:18:49.:18:52.

money. Here is the DWP 2011 forecast what would happen to the incapacity

:18:53.:19:01.

benefits Bill after WPA kicked in. You can see it falling, and the

:19:02.:19:05.

savings just around the corner, and here is 2013, much the same, savings

:19:06.:19:10.

to come in the future. But they never arrived. The WC a failed. Here

:19:11.:19:15.

is the OBR's latest forecast of what this bill will look like. You can

:19:16.:19:21.

see it is rising. The assessments for those benefits are incredibly

:19:22.:19:25.

conjugated, and what looks simple and Whitehall department isn't that

:19:26.:19:30.

simple when you get to people's everyday lives, the complexities of

:19:31.:19:33.

physical and mental health conditions, the complex co-morbidity

:19:34.:19:40.

when people have all sorts of different problems affecting them,

:19:41.:19:44.

and the relatively low qualified people doing the assessments just

:19:45.:19:50.

can't cope. One of Mr Duncan Smith's other ideas to reform disability

:19:51.:19:53.

benefit and save money was the so-called Personal Independence

:19:54.:20:02.

Payment, the idea it would replace the disability allowance and save

:20:03.:20:06.

20%. In practice, the replacement of DLA with PIP has only saved 5%. The

:20:07.:20:17.

planned savings were only an entry on a spreadsheet, there was never a

:20:18.:20:21.

plan to deliver them, they could only be delivered by having a much

:20:22.:20:25.

more stringent medical test, and that wasn't practical. Universal

:20:26.:20:30.

credit is a slightly different story. That wasn't a plant a

:20:31.:20:34.

short-term savings, it was a plan to overhaul the whole welfare system,

:20:35.:20:39.

merging six in work and out of work benefits for working age people.

:20:40.:20:44.

There were supposed to be 5.5 million people on universal credit

:20:45.:20:48.

by this point. So far, there are only 200,000. It is way off track,

:20:49.:20:53.

and I have been questions about whether the Government without Mr

:20:54.:20:57.

Duncan Smith to push it through will keep going with universal credit.

:20:58.:21:02.

When it was first planned, it was going to be more generous than tax

:21:03.:21:05.

credits, so the Treasury didn't mind that much that it got delayed and

:21:06.:21:09.

delayed. Now it will be less generous, so there is a strong

:21:10.:21:12.

incentive to the Treasury to push it through. The Treasury now projects

:21:13.:21:18.

that if it can get universal credit approach, it can save ?2.5 billion

:21:19.:21:22.

per year this Parliament. Roger Osborne will need that to help it is

:21:23.:21:25.

surplus target, because in the last few days, it became harder to watch

:21:26.:21:30.

-- cut working age Alfei any further. Chris Kirkland.

:21:31.:21:33.

I'm joined by Andrew Mitchell MP, and Charlotte Pickles,

:21:34.:21:35.

who was an expert advisor to Iain Duncan Smith under

:21:36.:21:37.

the coalition Government, and is now senior research director

:21:38.:21:39.

Good evening. Charlotte, two objectives, saving money, just

:21:40.:21:48.

getting money out of the welfare budget, and reforming welfare. Do

:21:49.:21:53.

you think they put too much money on saving rather than reforming? I

:21:54.:21:56.

think that is what ended up happening, yes. If you look at what

:21:57.:22:00.

Iain Duncan Smith went into Government to do, it was to deliver

:22:01.:22:03.

a better welfare system that got better outcomes for the people that

:22:04.:22:09.

received those monies. That tension with the Treasury wanting to save

:22:10.:22:12.

money, to take billions out of welfare, clearly made that very

:22:13.:22:16.

difficult, and I think the best illustration is universal credit

:22:17.:22:19.

where division is absolutely right but we are seeing that constantly

:22:20.:22:22.

chip away at because savings are needed. Do you accept that? I accept

:22:23.:22:27.

completely the tension between reforming the system and saving

:22:28.:22:33.

money, and we have to save money in tackling the deficit, and welfare

:22:34.:22:38.

was where the money is. But there will always be a tension between the

:22:39.:22:43.

Treasury, there was 20 years ago when I was a minister in what was

:22:44.:22:48.

then not DWP but Social Security, there is always that tension, and at

:22:49.:22:53.

a time of austerities, that tension is very great indeed. Which

:22:54.:22:57.

Charlotte, you're not just blaming the Treasury for the failures of

:22:58.:23:00.

Iain Duncan Smith and you working for him to actually deliver the

:23:01.:23:04.

reforms? Everything he touched didn't quite go to plan, did it?

:23:05.:23:08.

Universal credit is a fraction of what it should be, the work

:23:09.:23:12.

capability assessment didn't work, ESA didn't save the money they

:23:13.:23:15.

expected, so none of it has really worked. I don't think anyone would

:23:16.:23:21.

say this is a difficult task, but he is a man who is incredibly

:23:22.:23:24.

principled and committed to trying to deliver a better welfare system,

:23:25.:23:29.

and if you look at the early indications, the evaluations of

:23:30.:23:32.

universal credit, people who are on it are getting into work faster,

:23:33.:23:36.

staying in work longer and earning more competitive people who are not

:23:37.:23:41.

on it. The WC a hasn't worked, we need a different model, but it was

:23:42.:23:46.

designed by Labour, and we picked that up. But the things that didn't

:23:47.:23:52.

work were not not working, because the Treasury had tried to save

:23:53.:23:57.

money. Was it the not saving money that stopped it rolling out, all the

:23:58.:24:02.

work capability assessment failing? They were misconceived. With

:24:03.:24:07.

universal credit, there have been well rehearsed challenges around IT,

:24:08.:24:10.

problems in that. You can't blame the Treasury. Based on a challenge

:24:11.:24:15.

where you have a different department that is constantly coming

:24:16.:24:20.

back, budget after spending review after Autumn Statement Sane, give us

:24:21.:24:23.

more money, the distraction that causes, the focus that you have on

:24:24.:24:35.

trying to say, trying to deliver all the time, but they are important

:24:36.:24:39.

reforms. Andrew Mitchell, did you see any weight in the IDS argument

:24:40.:24:43.

about pension benefits, that the balance between working age and

:24:44.:24:48.

pension cuts has been far too heavy on working age population? I think

:24:49.:24:54.

it is an issue, but we were clear in the general election that we would

:24:55.:24:57.

maintain those pension benefits, and politicians should stand by the

:24:58.:25:02.

promises they make. But you would rather they haven't made that

:25:03.:25:06.

promise? I think it is important to look after pensioners because they

:25:07.:25:11.

have much less flexible to in their earning and spending power, and

:25:12.:25:16.

there needs also increase, and most of them have given this country a

:25:17.:25:19.

great deal in their working life, so I wouldn't say that was a part of

:25:20.:25:25.

the problem, but there is always this tension, and these big

:25:26.:25:29.

projects. They are always bedevilled by problems, I think universal

:25:30.:25:32.

credit is a good change and we have to persevere with it and get it

:25:33.:25:36.

right. Compassionate conservatism. Who is the guardian of this? Is it

:25:37.:25:41.

Iain Duncan Smith who many think of as being on the right of the party,

:25:42.:25:47.

the more harsh, you would say, or is it George Osborne who is now being

:25:48.:25:50.

portrayed as the guy who is trying to slash benefits? I am absolutely

:25:51.:25:58.

clear that it is both and they both have a different role to play, the

:25:59.:26:01.

role of Iain Duncan Smith is to reform the system. He has after all

:26:02.:26:07.

got 150,000 disabled people back into work for the first time in each

:26:08.:26:12.

of the last two years, and the George Osborne, a one nation

:26:13.:26:14.

compassionate conservatives certainly because he has to make

:26:15.:26:19.

sure we don't imperil the future of the next generations by the debts we

:26:20.:26:22.

have run up on the size of the deficit today which have got to be

:26:23.:26:25.

tackled. Who do you think is the more compassionate of those two? You

:26:26.:26:30.

can't do compassionate conservatism without of economy that is working,

:26:31.:26:33.

and the Prime Minister made that point today. You can't have

:26:34.:26:36.

opportunity of jobs are not there, and that is what we have had, we

:26:37.:26:41.

have had an incredible jobs growth that has enabled people to go to

:26:42.:26:45.

work, so I will sidestep that and recognise that there is value in

:26:46.:26:49.

both. Thank you both very much indeed.

:26:50.:26:51.

When President Obama steps aside in ten months' time,

:26:52.:26:53.

to who knows what, what will his foreign policy legacy be?

:26:54.:26:56.

America's hostility to the country had looked anachronistic,

:26:57.:27:02.

And President Obama has rectified that by opening relations.

:27:03.:27:05.

But how big a deal is that, given that in geopolitical terms,

:27:06.:27:08.

Cuba is not as significant as it used to be in the Cold War?

:27:09.:27:11.

Our diplomatic editor, Mark Urban, has been wondering.

:27:12.:27:16.

What it takes to build a foreign policy legacy these days anyway? The

:27:17.:27:25.

White House has put its own footage out underlying the historic nature

:27:26.:27:31.

of this visit. But while there was plenty of excitement in the

:27:32.:27:34.

presidential party, they Havana glanced in these shots look near

:27:35.:27:38.

deserted, controlled, a stage for a tightly scripted political drama.

:27:39.:27:46.

The road ahead will not be easy. Fortunately we don't have to swim

:27:47.:27:49.

with sharks in order to achieve the goals that you and I have set forth.

:27:50.:27:58.

As you say here in Cuba, despite the difficulties, we will continue to

:27:59.:28:03.

move forward. It is a historic visit. We will see how

:28:04.:28:08.

transformative the policy, obviously there is still resistance in Cuba in

:28:09.:28:11.

certain areas, resistance here in the United States. The payoff is

:28:12.:28:18.

going to take some time, but I think as a policy wager it is a reasonable

:28:19.:28:27.

one. But with today's ceremony at a monument to Cuba's revolutionary

:28:28.:28:31.

heroes, Mr Obama found himself overlooked by shade of are and under

:28:32.:28:42.

fire at home. -- Che Guevara. The charge that he is consorting with

:28:43.:28:52.

the dictator country. He is trying to address an issue that is

:28:53.:28:54.

important to his ideological and of the spectrum, the far left who sees

:28:55.:29:00.

Castro is some kind of romantic figure, and more to the point, the

:29:01.:29:05.

United States as doing wrong by the Cuban people. I think that shows his

:29:06.:29:10.

misunderstanding of the reality. With Cuba as with many other aspects

:29:11.:29:14.

of what the president might hope for is his legacy, parties -- partisan

:29:15.:29:26.

clashes could lead a president to force on a policy that the Obama

:29:27.:29:30.

administration has invested much in. I think it is interesting that it is

:29:31.:29:33.

not simply between the parties but within the parties. You have the

:29:34.:29:38.

foreign policy divide between Secretary Clinton and Senator

:29:39.:29:43.

Sanders just the same way you have them between Mr Trump, Ted Cruz and

:29:44.:29:56.

Senator Kasich. That is a reality that all too often has come to

:29:57.:29:59.

characterise my nation's capitol, and has made it harder for the

:30:00.:30:01.

United States to be consistently reliable. Events have also

:30:02.:30:07.

frustrated key elements of the Obama agenda, like trying to get out of

:30:08.:30:12.

Iraq and Afghanistan. Even today in Havana, he had to pay tribute to a

:30:13.:30:16.

US Marine killed in Iraq at the weekend, and the Pentagon

:30:17.:30:21.

acknowledged it now has nearly 4000 troops trying to stabilise the

:30:22.:30:26.

country the president had once pulled them out of. If Cuba has been

:30:27.:30:31.

a success for the President's policy, reconciling with adverse

:30:32.:30:35.

arrays has been an even bigger one in the shape of the Iran nuclear

:30:36.:30:40.

deal. But that has taken a huge amount of diplomatic and political

:30:41.:30:44.

effort, dominating the diplomacy of his second term. And some would

:30:45.:30:49.

argue it has led him to make too many concessions to countries like

:30:50.:30:54.

Russia and Iran who fundamentally do not stand for the same interest as

:30:55.:30:58.

the United States. And it's the turmoil in the Middle East that

:30:59.:31:03.

leads even supporters to accuse Mr Obama of aggregating leadership. The

:31:04.:31:09.

world is such that unless the United States leads, the bad guys show up,

:31:10.:31:14.

and we sat on the sidelines in Syria not wanting to really get involved,

:31:15.:31:21.

for understandable reasons, but we are strong on diplomacy, stronger on

:31:22.:31:25.

trying to work with the opposition, or else recognise that Assad is in

:31:26.:31:31.

power and our number-1 goal to get ices out of it safe haven in Iraq

:31:32.:31:40.

and Syria. -- Isis. And that is where we should have been four years

:31:41.:31:45.

ago. Ending a blockade on Cuba that hasn't made sense the decades might

:31:46.:31:48.

seem like a small victory to celebrate, but it is a message of

:31:49.:31:55.

how hard it has been for Mr Obama to craft distinctive foreign policy

:31:56.:31:58.

legacy that at this stage he is working it to the max.

:31:59.:32:01.

Only ten years old today, and yet it's already almost passed

:32:02.:32:06.

through the whole life cycle of a technology company,

:32:07.:32:08.

from hope, to excitement, to ubiquity and now to many

:32:09.:32:11.

Once upon a time, ten years ago, in fact, a little bird was born. Its

:32:12.:32:28.

USP, tweeting in only 140 characters.

:32:29.:32:41.

When it comes to breaking news it's hard to imagine operating without

:32:42.:32:52.

Twitter, even the raid on Osama Bin Laden's compound was unknowingly

:32:53.:32:59.

tweeted by an IT consulted nearby. First tweeted, "Helicopter hovering

:33:00.:33:07.

here is a rare event." Following that was it clear what he had heard.

:33:08.:33:12.

Then there's the service Twitter offers as an information

:33:13.:33:15.

disseminator. Take the Japanese tsunami in the same year, with many

:33:16.:33:19.

mobile networks and telephone land lines down after the earthquake,

:33:20.:33:26.

terrified residents went to Twitter and of course, Facebook, for

:33:27.:33:30.

guidance. Evacuate to higher ground was the advice from government. Many

:33:31.:33:34.

got that and other information about what to pack in an emergency kit

:33:35.:33:39.

from social media. But recently, this little bird has had many an

:33:40.:33:45.

obstacle in its path. The word is that Facebook, Twitter's bigger,

:33:46.:33:47.

more predatory rival, is winning out. It's been hard to Monday ties

:33:48.:33:52.

Twitter's value and once the market wised up that growth in users was

:33:53.:33:59.

slowing, the share price plummeted. Twitter's reputation is built on its

:34:00.:34:03.

influence on popular opinion. The Arab Spring, seen by some as

:34:04.:34:07.

possibly its biggest coup, was dubbed the Twitter revolution. That

:34:08.:34:10.

meant the site was harnessed to spread the word, to galvanise the

:34:11.:34:16.

people. We can't talk about a Twitter revolution. We cannot talk

:34:17.:34:20.

about a Facebook revolution. It's the revolution of the people on the

:34:21.:34:25.

ground, people who faced the tear gas and the bullets. Tunisia,

:34:26.:34:33.

Twitter is not very popular in comparison to Facebook. But let me

:34:34.:34:39.

say that Twitter helped enriching international media. For some time,

:34:40.:34:44.

not just the international media, but politicians too really believed

:34:45.:34:47.

that Twitter was a powerful tool to connect with those difficult to

:34:48.:34:51.

catch demographics, particularly the young. Four more years tweeted

:34:52.:34:55.

Barack Obama on his second term win. Within an hour it was the site's

:34:56.:35:01.

most popular tweet. This president, Twitter's fourth most followed

:35:02.:35:04.

person, considered by many to have harnessed the power of social media.

:35:05.:35:11.

But four years on, certainly when it comes to British elections, Twitter

:35:12.:35:14.

hasn't played the role that was expected. Linton Crosby the

:35:15.:35:19.

Conservative election strategist reportedly didn't believe in it as a

:35:20.:35:24.

campaigning tool. Labour learned hard lessons about Twitter's

:35:25.:35:28.

influence. I think we did think Twitter was important. We relied on

:35:29.:35:33.

it a bit too much. I think we got a false impression because we were

:35:34.:35:37.

getting a very good, strong feed back from Twitter, I think we

:35:38.:35:39.

thought that's the way the whole country was going. Of course, that

:35:40.:35:44.

didn't happen as we found to our shock and horror when that exit poll

:35:45.:35:50.

dropped at 9. 55pm. A lot is asked of this little bird. If questions

:35:51.:35:55.

mount over its ability to influence opinion, it could find itself not a

:35:56.:35:57.

bird who can fly but a dead duck. Joining me in the studio now

:35:58.:36:00.

is the feminist activist Caroline Criado-Perez,

:36:01.:36:05.

who has 35,000 followers on Twitter. And live from New York,

:36:06.:36:08.

financial journalist Felix Salmon, Nobody told necessity was going to

:36:09.:36:22.

be a competition! Not a competition. Forget the business model for a

:36:23.:36:26.

moment, we will talk about that. But as a service, how do you rate

:36:27.:36:29.

Twitter and what it does and delivers? It's inexpensible. I would

:36:30.:36:38.

rather have my tweet deck open than have a bloomburg, which is worth

:36:39.:36:43.

$20,000 a month. It's the only way to keep up with what's going on, to

:36:44.:36:46.

have conversations with the people who are in the heart of things, to

:36:47.:36:55.

have - it has an incredibler is endipity engine. -- serendipity

:36:56.:37:02.

engine. It's nothing like it has ever existed and it's amazing. You

:37:03.:37:06.

use it a lot, don't you? I use it a fair amount. People suggested to you

:37:07.:37:10.

you could attach your keys to your dog, so that you wouldn't lose your

:37:11.:37:14.

keys. It's full of really useful insight. That's true. I absolutely

:37:15.:37:18.

agree. Yeah, this morning I turned to Twitter because again I locked my

:37:19.:37:24.

self-out of my flat and you decided there must be a solution. Twitter is

:37:25.:37:30.

all of those things. But obviously, it has its drawbacks. The draw backs

:37:31.:37:34.

are that people are really angry on there. It's not just about rape and

:37:35.:37:38.

death threats. I was thinking the other day, I tweeted about putting,

:37:39.:37:42.

a guy replied telling me that feminism was cancer. It was a nice,

:37:43.:37:46.

happy tweet. I didn't really understand it. There's a lot of

:37:47.:37:52.

anger. You got a lot of nasty stuff, didn't you, after you led a campaign

:37:53.:37:58.

to have Jane Austin on a banknote. That was the Bank of England's

:37:59.:38:03.

choice. It was just female representation, just any way, never

:38:04.:38:07.

mind. But it was horrible. I'm amazed you stayed on. You were

:38:08.:38:12.

having death threats. I did, I had three weeks' worth of a bombardment

:38:13.:38:15.

of graphic and detailed rape and death threats. They found an address

:38:16.:38:21.

and were posting that all over the internet, all over Twitter. It was

:38:22.:38:25.

terrifying. I stayed on for a number of reasons, one is I'm incredibly

:38:26.:38:29.

stubborn. The other reasons is what Felix was talking about. It's an

:38:30.:38:32.

incredibly useful and important tool. It's a journalist, a political

:38:33.:38:38.

activist, nothing can replace what Twitter does at the moment. It would

:38:39.:38:41.

be nice if it didn't come with the side order of rape threats. You said

:38:42.:38:46.

it's not just an echo chamber. For a lot of people it is just an echo

:38:47.:38:51.

chamber, isn't it? No, I feel, I mean you can set it up that way, if

:38:52.:39:01.

you want. I feel like you can discover so much with Twitter that

:39:02.:39:05.

because people are constantly lirchinging out and retweeting

:39:06.:39:09.

people and linking to sites you've never been to before, remember, it's

:39:10.:39:14.

a path to the broader internet. This sets it apart from Facebook,

:39:15.:39:19.

Instagram, Snapchat, all the other social networks because they-to be

:39:20.:39:24.

enclosed, self-contained. Twitter is much more - it has its fingers

:39:25.:39:29.

deeper in the web. You learn new things and discover new sites every

:39:30.:39:33.

day on Twitter. Now Felix, just the business plan, because the business

:39:34.:39:36.

isn't really rocking in the way that I think the people who bought shares

:39:37.:39:40.

originally might have hoped. What is wrong with the business plan? Well,

:39:41.:39:48.

when Twitter went public, I was quite voke alabout the -- vocal

:39:49.:39:51.

about the idea that the best way to get value out of Twitter was just to

:39:52.:39:57.

use it rather than buy shares in the hope they would go up. Maybe it

:39:58.:40:01.

doesn't make a lot of sense as a $30 billion corporation. All

:40:02.:40:04.

corporations have some kind of value. Twitter's value might be

:40:05.:40:07.

lower than what the stock market is saying right now. It might be

:40:08.:40:12.

higher, who knows. I feel that the problem with Twitter is that it went

:40:13.:40:16.

public and now people are judging it by its share price instead of

:40:17.:40:19.

judging by the effect it has in the world. Just compare it briefly to

:40:20.:40:24.

Facebook. How do you use the two, separate the two? I think that I

:40:25.:40:29.

probably speak more freely on Facebook because of the - You

:40:30.:40:33.

control your circle more. I control who see it's. I don't have to worry

:40:34.:40:38.

about rape threats or telling me I'm cancer because I spoke about

:40:39.:40:46.

pudding. 1. 6 billion monthly users on Facebook, 320 million on Twitter.

:40:47.:40:50.

I use Twitter to get my message to a wider audience. In Facebook I'm

:40:51.:40:55.

preach is to the converted. On the whole they agree with emany. With

:40:56.:41:00.

Twitter I have a chance to talk to people who don't agree with me.

:41:01.:41:04.

That's an important tool. Thank you both very much indeed.

:41:05.:41:06.

Newsnight is back tomorrow. I'm here then. Good night.

:41:07.:41:21.

Hello. It looks like a chilly start to the day on Tuesday, with a touch

:41:22.:41:28.

of frost in a few spots and patches of mist and fog. Apart from that

:41:29.:41:32.

it's a bright start to the day. Cloud amounts increase into the

:41:33.:41:35.

afternoon, leaving southern and eastern areas with a few spells of

:41:36.:41:38.

sunshine. Further north and west you are, it's likely to be cloudy, but

:41:39.:41:43.

dry in Northern Ireland. The odd spot of light rain or drizzle for

:41:44.:41:44.

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