22/03/2016 Newsnight


22/03/2016

Evan Davis is live in Brussels with in-depth analysis of the day's events in Brussels, and what comes next.


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Transcript


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This programme contains scenes which some viewers

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were a lot of kids. What will you do now? I don't know. We are lost.

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A harrowing IS attack on Brussels,

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on the open society it represents, and on Europe too.

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What can the continent do to thwart these attacks,

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The terrorist have struck Belgium. But it is Europe which has been

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targeted. It is the whole world which is concerned with this.

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One of the most cosmopolitan cities in the world, where most

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Tens of thousands working for the EU and thousands more of course,

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Brussels was rocked by three explosions this morning,

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killing more than thirty people and injuring 200 or so more.

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International terror, attacking the whole concept

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of an international, tolerant urban environment.

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Well, no-one is surprised this has occurred, given the Brussels

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connection to the French terror attacks last year;

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For a look at the day's events, here's Gabriel Gatehouse.

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I am about 300 metres from Maelbeek station. Behind me is the European

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Parliament building. It is eerily quiet on the streets below. People

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are gathering tonight at the Place de la Bourse. There are candles.

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People are writing messages in chalk on the ground. Similar to the scenes

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we saw in Paris. There is always an emotional response to these events

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and a collective emotional response at that. Our first report.

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The first bomber struck at check-in. As people were dropping off their

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bags at the American Airlines desk. The second hit a nearby Starbucks.

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These pictures show the scene moments after the blast ripped

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through the familiar rituals of international air travel. I see an

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explosion. Like an orange ball. A fireball? Yes, I think, but it is so

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quick. 25 metres from us. One minute before we were there at the place of

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the explosion. You missed it by one minute? Yes. We should have probably

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died. The Nessa and Xavier Woods meant to be travelling to Miami for

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a holiday in the sun. -- Vanessa and Xavier one meant to be. They ran out

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in a panic. The attackers had planned a third explosion. But

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failed to go off. But by then the departure lounge was littered with

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bodies. There is kids. A lot of kids. A lot of injured. A lot of

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people on the ground. I don't understand. The two explosions at

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the airport came at around 8am. Within seconds of each other. At

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least ten people were killed. Then just over an hour later, 11 minutes

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past 9am, another attack. This time on a Metro train in the heart of the

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European quarter. It was the height of the rush-hour. Passengers were

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evacuated along the smoke filled tunnels beyond the headquarters of

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the EU. The bomb had exploded on the train up ahead in the middle

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carriage of a three car train, killing around 20 people. Above

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ground a huge security operation began. People working in nearby

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offices rushed out to find what had happened and were horrified by what

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they saw. Bodies on the floor. People just covering them with

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towels and sheets. And the side there was a young girl. Seems like

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student age. All alone. She was just sat on the floor crying. In what was

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a very chaotic adrenaline filled moment, you know, she summed it up

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to me. There was literally horror on the streets of Belgium. All public

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transport in the city was shut down. Outside the headquarters of the

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European Commission today bureaucrats were replaced by

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soldiers. If the aim is to paralyse they have certainly achieved that

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aim. This is the heart of Europe, the place where all of the

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commission buildings are centred. And look it is and complete

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lockdown. Apart from the police nobody is going in or coming out.

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This was not just an attack on Europe, but perhaps on Nato, too.

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Whose planes bombing Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and whose

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headquarters are in Brussels. By now a manhunt was underway. Police

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circulated a picture of the attackers at the airport, seen here

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pushing trolleys through the airport minutes before the attack.

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TRANSLATION: A photograph of three male suspects was taken at Zaventem

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airport. Three of them appear to have committed suicide attacks. The

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third in a light-coloured jacket and a hat is being searched for. As

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police search for the man in the light jacket, the city was coming to

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terms with its darkest days since the Second World War. As in Paris

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they responded with a show of unity. Only last Friday one of the suspects

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in the Paris attacks was arrested here in Brussels. Many have been

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waiting nervously for something similar. For those whose lives were

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changed for ever today, defiance was mixed with the will demand. How do

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you understand? We were going on holiday. The minute later it is a

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nightmare. It is not a good day. Tonight there are searches on going

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across the country. Police are Brussels has owned in on an

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apartment where they say they have found an IS flag and another

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explosive device. But the hunt for the missing, continues.

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by John Crombez, leader of the opposition in the Flemish

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parliament and a former minister, and by Beatrice Delvaux,

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the lead columnist for Le Soir newspaper.

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This is a day nobody wanted to begin. Yes. Very rare for him to

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express himself like that. It is a sad day for Belgium. A lot of fear.

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Today was full of sadness. People knew that something like that could

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happen. But at the same time we were surprised. Especially because it was

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after the victory of the capture of Salah Abdeslam. We thought it was

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the beginning of a solution but that wasn't the case. John, the security

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forces, and their role in this, is this something Belgian steel proud

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of at the moment, or is there a sense of something has gone badly

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wrong here? -- still proud. It has gone wrong because Belgium has been

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hit in a way we haven't seen before, or since a long time. We are

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confronted with networks of terrorists where the intelligence

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and the anti-terror units are going to need to be upgraded in a sense

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that they need the right instruments, the right number of

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people, the right exchange of information that is going to go

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beyond what we have today. Do you think this problem is bigger than

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Belgium can cope with? It is a small country. It is a big problem. It is

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disproportionately bit in Belgium. I just wonder if it is one this

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country can handle. What is going to be important is that we don't

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consider this as a Belgium problem. Like before when it happened in

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France, a French problem. And in London. And wherever else. This is

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where Europe needs to talk about shared intelligence. That is

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something that needs to be European. It isn't bigger than Europe. Europe

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should be able to manage this together. You talk about European

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issues and the international nature of the threat. I just wonder whether

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this is such an international city, isn't it? I think it was ranked the

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second most international after Dubai. In terms of proportion of

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people born overseas who are living here. I wonder whether that shapes

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the response here, and shapes what people feel about the nature of the

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threat here. No, I think, basically the Belgians fear what can happen in

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other cities, too. We are near to Paris. We live very near the French

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people. We thought that what happened in Charlie Hebdo and at the

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Bataclan could happen here. There is this link between the Belgian

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terrorist in the French terrorists after what happened in Paris. It was

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by French people and people who were born here in Belgium. But they can

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travel through the frontiers. They can travel between the countries

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because there was not enough exchange of information between the

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two countries. Salah Abdeslam was able to cross the border after the

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Bataclan. The French police didn't identify him. It wasn't that the

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French did anything wrong, or the French or the Belgian police, but if

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they don't work together it won't be solved. We have already started, in

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this conversation, having a small inquest into things which may have

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gone wrong. This possibly is in the days of this inquest, is it? I don't

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know what you think. This is not the day for those kinds of difficult

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questions. Belgium has been hit by something so big. It hasn't been hit

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by something like this in decades. Politicians react in the same way.

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Even perhaps the media. If we can manage this we are going to have to

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manage this together. This is no time for politics in finding

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oppositions, but really finding solutions. And fast. Do that really

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fast. People need security. People need to be aware of the fact that we

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can overcome this. We are going to need to do this together. We often

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think of Belgium as a country divided between French and Flemish.

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We joke about how long it takes to form a government in Belgium. I just

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wonder whether this is one of those psychological or physical shocks to

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a nation which, in a sense, develops deeper spirit, or not? I would like

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to be as optimistic as you are. Like any other country, after few days,

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you have to go back. After the Charlie Hebdo, you know one

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political party, one Flemish, during two or three days there was a sense

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of union between the political parties. After that, the Flemish

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nationalist party issued a statement saying that it was the fault of the

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French Socialists, of the Islamic behaviour, or the fact that they

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were sympathetic to the Islamic type of behaviour. Then it exploded. Then

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the fight came back again. I think today is maybe not the day to ask

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questions. Tomorrow will be. We don't know what to think. Months ago

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we had success against terrorism. In the South of France we arrested

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people before and killed them before they could be able to commit crimes.

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Then we arrested Salah Abdeslam. At the same time, we think we can

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handle this, but then at the same time, this happened today and we

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just ask questions. Should we have known. And this is a question for

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tomorrow. We won't stop asking them because of some union that has to be

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here today. Let's finish by asking. Lifestyle changes... There are

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countries like Israel where security is embedded in everything. Something

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everybody does because they have been used more of these kinds of

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events than most of us in Europe. The thing Belgians or other

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Europeans are ready to significantly change lifestyles to put security at

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a higher priority? -- do you think. No, and I would say the reaction

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today is quite strong already, that people are saying, we will not hand

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our country over to this kind of terrorism. We don't need that

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overcome this, but we are going to need to be very strong and improve

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on security to do that. We can only say we will survive this as a

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society, we need to make security stronger, information stronger. But

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it will be more intrusive? Absolutely. Thank you both very much

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indeed. Solidarity is one of the features in these ghastly days.

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Everybody declaring themselves to be at one with the community under

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assault. There has been a particularly strong degree of

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solidarity between the French and Belgians in recent months, both

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victims of a Brussels-based jihadists al. There was solidarity

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in lights tonight, with the Eiffel Tower eliminated in Boeljon colours.

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But that has been tension between those two countries, Belgium

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bridling at some of the criticism it faced losing control of that

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district of Molenbeek, and any tension between Belgium and France

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points to a bigger problem, that Europe talks about solidarity, but

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exhibits too little of it when it comes to security cooperation. So we

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are going to spend the next few minutes thinking about different

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aspects of the threat and how to deal with it.

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This looks like a pretty catastrophic failure

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What do our security services say about this?

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There have been persistent reports that Belgian intelligence has been

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swamped by the caseload, and that is not coming from British security

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sources, but from European ones. And the numbers would seem to back that

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up. 350 jihadis from Belgium have travelled to Syria to fight the

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so-called Islamic state. In terms of per capita population, that is the

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biggest problem of any country in Europe. I spoke to counterterrorism

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sources here today, and they were reluctant to criticise their Belgian

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counterterrorist counterparts here today, but they did say that some

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don't have Sabitzer victory close enough relationships with police,

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and I spoke to a former French government minister tonight, and he

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told me there is a problem with Belgian policing. And to look at

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this, you really have to consider one fact. After the Paris attacks,

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they were hunting for Salah Abdeslam, and it took them four

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months to find him, and he was hiding in plain sight in central

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Brussels. And given the nature of the targets today, it was an

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airport, but it was landside, not air side, so no security. What's to

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security people think you can do about those kinds of targets and how

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you cope with that? Protecting a soft target is the key, clearly, and

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I have been speaking to security experts today talking about a rather

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controversial technique called behavioural analysis, and this

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basically means putting plainclothes people into locations where they can

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watch passengers before they pass through security, before they mount

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planes and trains, and this is what one security expert had to say to me

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today. Behavioural analysis is all about identifying somebody was

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negative intent, it doesn't matter whether it is a passenger, crew

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member, or airport insider. I have long advocated that this should

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either private method -- primary method of screening at airports, in

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the UK and worldwide, and there has been so much resistance over the

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years because people feel that we are going to be racially Provine

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people rather than making intelligent decisions based on

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common sense. -- racially profiling. Richard Watson, thank you very much

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indeed. We can't be tough on terror

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or the causes of terror without understanding the things

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that make it flourish. To understand those things

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by the way is not to justify And sadly, fairly or not,

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it's the Brussels district of Molenbeek that often comes up

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as exhibit number one, of community conditions

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ripe for terror. Secunder Kermani has been

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spending time in Molenbeek, he's been making a Panorama

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programme that will air tomorrow He is with me now. And it isn't just

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Molenbeek that is the focus of the attention this evening. Yes, we have

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seen raids in a district called Tabac three, about 15 minutes from

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Molenbeek, both of these areas fairly central in Brussels. -- in a

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district called Schaerbeek. They are in a geographical semicircle of

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deprived areas around a central canal in Brussels, and we have seen

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people look at Molenbeek as the centre of radicalisation, but it is

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not as simple as that, people move around. The Paris attackers, they

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came from Molenbeek but they also had a safe house in Schaerbeek where

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they manufactured suicide belts, and we don't know what connection there

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is between today's attacks and the attacks in Paris. We see areas

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outside of Brussels, Antwerp is also seen significant numbers of young

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people go over to Syria. But with all those caveats, if you want to

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understand the causes behind radicalisation in Belgium, Molenbeek

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is as good a place as any to go, and I went back there today, as well as

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of course there being a lot of sympathy for the victims are today's

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awful events, there is also a sense of foreboding about what the events

:19:59.:20:02.

could mean for the community there and their place in society.

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Molenbeek has become notorious. We don't know if today's attackers came

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from here, but it has been the centre of Belgian's problems with

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radicalisation. Just last Friday, security services here celebrate the

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capture of Salah Abdeslam, the final member of the group that attacked

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Paris in November. Many in a support network all grew up in Molenbeek.

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Today's attacks have left some here worrying what will be revealed and

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what will happen next. Belgium has a higher number of

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jihadi is in Syria per capita than anywhere else in Europe, and for the

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past few weeks, I have been spending time here to try to understand why.

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One reason many in the Muslim community here and is that when the

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Syrian conflict started, authorities didn't seem overly concerned by the

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presence of recruiters. Molenbeek has 40% youth

:21:28.:22:14.

unemployment. There are a lot of disaffected young men here, and some

:22:15.:22:20.

are susceptible to the IS message. This Sheikh used to be one of

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Molenbeek's most well-known preachers, but is now in Syria with

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a rebel group fighting against both IS and the Assad regime. In

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Molenbeek, many labelled him a radical, but unlike a new generation

:22:35.:22:39.

of IS jihadists, he says he is firmly against attacks in the West.

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I asked him why he thought so many young people from his old

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neighbourhood joined IS. For some, this solution to the

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threat to IS lies in resolving the Syrian crisis. For others, it lies

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closer to home, but whatever the solutions are, they are already too

:24:25.:24:27.

late for today's victims. And don't forget Panorama's

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special report - Inside Europe's Terror Attacks -

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is on BBC One at 9pm tomorrow. Let's pull some of these

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threads together. Muslim community

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leader Taufik Amlize Is from the centre for the Muslim

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community. What proportion to you are not supporters of Isis, but

:24:56.:25:01.

disenchanted, fed up and basically hate the society in which they live?

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Our situation in Brussels especially is that we have a high level of

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economic deprivation. People are feeling anger, there is a lot of

:25:15.:25:18.

bitterness. We have facts and figures that show that either you

:25:19.:25:23.

are under skilled or over skilled, you don't get enough chance to get

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the job, or to get the right opportunities. And this situation is

:25:29.:25:33.

really giving the field to make the narratives of Isis very attractive

:25:34.:25:39.

to those people. So it is very hard to counter a narrative that says

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there is nothing here, come with us in Syria... So why is Isis the thing

:25:44.:25:51.

that appeals to people? Some of these cases, like Salah Abdeslam,

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they have been through a variety of odd lifestyles, drugs, other crime,

:25:56.:26:02.

all of those things. What is it about Isis that is appealing? Maybe

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it is the simplistic certainties, but it seems there are so many

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things that could tempt you aside. It is a purpose. They try to find a

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purpose from themselves. They are looking for something from which

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they can leave, maybe they can die. We hear strong and powerful

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statements from those youngsters saying that there is nothing for to

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live here, it is preferable to go and die there. So these persons who

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are doing very bad things, they are bad guys, and the Justice should do

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his job to try to put them in jail, burqas the Muslim community has

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nothing to do with those people, they are also attracted to the fact

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that Isis is really giving them a narrative. And what proportion we

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talking about? Have described anger, and there are lots of communities

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where people are angry or feel disenchanted, and there is this

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other problem which is Isis, which is a subset, a smaller part of the

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anger problem. And what proportion of people are flirting with the

:27:09.:27:15.

thoughts of caliphates and so on? We don't have the figures. You meet

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them? Every day, or every now and then? Not every day. We meet them of

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course because we need to help them to find and the right people. Does

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it work, what you do? Can use it an angry person who has gone off the

:27:38.:27:40.

rails and who wants to be a martyr or supports a bunch of people in

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Syria, do you find you can take those people, sit them down, talk to

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them and cure them of that? It is long-term work, it is a long-term,

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but we can do that, and we have to do that. There is no choice. We have

:27:57.:28:02.

to take some with our expert eyes, and bring them not only strong

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narratives, we need to show them that they have the chance to get

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real opportunities, so that is why we need to work with the political

:28:13.:28:16.

bodies, with the Governments, so that our narrative is really giving

:28:17.:28:22.

a sense to them. Just walking to the will not be enough. You also need to

:28:23.:28:27.

give the reality of the opportunities. How do we get out of

:28:28.:28:31.

this cycle which we have had in other episodes? The cycle in which

:28:32.:28:38.

society, or people in society, blame the Muslims, and Muslims say, we are

:28:39.:28:43.

not to blame, you are to blame because you have maltreated us or

:28:44.:28:49.

you are racist. It is an incredibly unconstructive dialogue between

:28:50.:28:53.

elements of the Muslim community and the broader community. Identity now

:28:54.:28:56.

how we break out of this ghastly cycle. It is a constant debate. How

:28:57.:29:02.

far can you be responsible as a community for the behaviour of

:29:03.:29:06.

certain of the community? It Israeli hard, because you need really to

:29:07.:29:13.

make the line between the community, the Muslim community, which is

:29:14.:29:16.

peaceful, and those who are doing those deeds. And as a Muslim

:29:17.:29:20.

community, we are also suffering from what is happening. We were also

:29:21.:29:24.

victims, but we are also policemen, we are giving blood in hospitals. So

:29:25.:29:29.

this is really something that we need to make sure that they don't

:29:30.:29:34.

divide us. We are as a Belgian population also free from terrorism,

:29:35.:29:40.

and if we divide ourselves between Muslims who are condemning and those

:29:41.:29:43.

who are not condemning, then we are just playing the game of Isis,

:29:44.:29:49.

because the purpose is to divide, so we all must say to the Belgian

:29:50.:29:54.

community, Belgian society, do not... Don't fall for that, don't

:29:55.:29:59.

divide. And that is the main motto we have. Thank you very much. That

:30:00.:30:04.

is it from Brussels this evening. These terror days, waking up to the

:30:05.:30:08.

news and realising just how bad it is, these are becoming grimly

:30:09.:30:12.

familiar in their characteristics, and I wonder how many more we can

:30:13.:30:15.

take before they become not familiar but routine. It will be a very sad

:30:16.:30:21.

threshold across that we stop being shocked or outraged by them, but I

:30:22.:30:25.

can say from Brussels, we are long way from that yet. Back to London.

:30:26.:30:33.

Away from that dreadful atrocity in Brussels.

:30:34.:30:41.

At Westminster today the fallout over Ian Duncan Smith's resignation

:30:42.:30:43.

played out in the final day of the Budget debate

:30:44.:30:46.

with George Osborne taking the highly unusual step of leading

:30:47.:30:48.

He almost blithely batted off the idea of a ?4.4 billion black

:30:49.:30:52.

hole caused by his U turn on disability benefit cuts,

:30:53.:30:54.

praised IDS extravagantly but while admitting

:30:55.:30:56.

that the now scrapped cuts to Personal Independence Payments

:30:57.:30:58.

were a mistake, refused to make any apology for the disarray.

:30:59.:31:01.

But he's left with a barrel load of problems for a man famed

:31:02.:31:04.

for believing in long term plans - how to meet his welfare cap,

:31:05.:31:07.

and how to built credibility as a contender for the leadership

:31:08.:31:10.

after successive Budget meltdowns, oh and the fact that he has

:31:11.:31:13.

staked his future on the outcome of the EU referendum.

:31:14.:31:15.

Here's our political editor David Grossman.

:31:16.:31:26.

You do not need to be a professor of body language to detect the change

:31:27.:31:34.

in the chance's Tamina. The man who looked imperious and confident on

:31:35.:31:38.

Budget day today seemed far less sure of himself as he headed for the

:31:39.:31:42.

Commons, tracked back to salvage his Budget and his reputation. --

:31:43.:31:45.

Chancellor's demeanour. The Chancellor has been doing quite

:31:46.:31:57.

a lot of giving way since the Budget. Buffeted by criticism from

:31:58.:32:01.

his own party and the resignation of Iain Duncan Smith. He was a rather

:32:02.:32:09.

more humble George Osborne, first paying tribute to his parting

:32:10.:32:15.

colleague. Of course there is always robust discussion between the

:32:16.:32:18.

Treasury and the spending department where money needs to be saved. The

:32:19.:32:25.

decisions we made to keep our economy secure are always difficult.

:32:26.:32:30.

We must be prepared to listen and learn. Especially when we don't get

:32:31.:32:37.

it wrong. We worked together longer than any two people, doing our jobs

:32:38.:32:41.

before we sat in any government. And we have been part of a team that has

:32:42.:32:45.

reduced the number of those out of work benefits to levels not seen in

:32:46.:32:51.

40 years. He's given way not just disability benefits, but also the

:32:52.:33:03.

government is not shifting on what has been done about solar panel

:33:04.:33:06.

payments and tax on sanitary products. It was described as deeply

:33:07.:33:12.

unfair, drifting in the wrong direction that will divide the

:33:13.:33:16.

country, not united. And he said all of those words after the Chancellor

:33:17.:33:21.

announced he was ditching the cuts on PIPs the. Is he deluded? Labour

:33:22.:33:29.

is not worrying the Chancellor, rather how those on his own side

:33:30.:33:34.

reacted. This is the new intake of Conservative MPs posing just after

:33:35.:33:38.

the election. George Osborne has, according to somebody who knows his

:33:39.:33:42.

mind, been wrong-footed by the zeitgeist of this group who are far

:33:43.:33:45.

more concerned about helping the working poor than bringing down

:33:46.:33:50.

taxes for higher income groups. It was perhaps with them in mind the

:33:51.:33:53.

Chancellor offered this personal manifesto.

:33:54.:33:59.

These are the people that I am fighting for, real, decent,

:34:00.:34:02.

hard-working people, not numbers on a Treasury

:34:03.:34:03.

spreadsheet but people whose lives would be impoverished,

:34:04.:34:05.

whose hopes and aspirations would be crushed, if we had gone

:34:06.:34:08.

on spending more and more than the country earns.

:34:09.:34:10.

Getting things right for these people is what I am all about.

:34:11.:34:13.

Today, the Government's independent forecasters,

:34:14.:34:14.

the Office for Budget Responsibility, were being grilled

:34:15.:34:16.

on their analysis of the Treasury Select Committee.

:34:17.:34:20.

The concern from this group of MPs is that the Chancellor has allowed

:34:21.:34:23.

clever politics to get in the way of sound fiscal planning.

:34:24.:34:29.

The Chancellor is absolutely right to commit himself to eradicating

:34:30.:34:31.

the deficit, but he has hemmed himself in with public expenditure

:34:32.:34:34.

commitments that effectively take out of play three quarters of public

:34:35.:34:37.

spending, and almost three quarters of tax as well,

:34:38.:34:39.

so his room for fiscal manoeuvre is very small.

:34:40.:34:45.

Added to that, he's got a fiscal rule which means at the moment

:34:46.:34:49.

he is adjusting policy every few months according to the vagaries

:34:50.:34:51.

That has now triggered a huge political row, when in fact

:34:52.:35:00.

we are talking about relatively small economic numbers.

:35:01.:35:10.

The Chancellor had done enough to save his budget, passed this

:35:11.:35:13.

After all the climb-downs, his repetition, particularly among

:35:14.:35:16.

those who would choose the next Conservative leader,

:35:17.:35:18.

Joining me now to discuss where all this leaves the Chancellor

:35:19.:35:29.

are the Guardian's Political Editor Anushka Asthana and the Times

:35:30.:35:31.

George Osborne is gaining a reputation for having problematic

:35:32.:35:47.

budgets. Tax credits, to the problem two weeks ago with pension reform...

:35:48.:35:53.

Can he be taken credibly by the time of the next Budget? I think so

:35:54.:35:59.

because he got us out of recession. And we have 2 million more people in

:36:00.:36:04.

employment. No matter what he does? His long-term record is good. He

:36:05.:36:08.

struggles with the budgets. It is when it comes to these intense

:36:09.:36:11.

periods when he is trying to balance the books. That is an issue. And the

:36:12.:36:18.

OBR's forecasts have been all over the place. Everybody has an issue

:36:19.:36:23.

with it. This particular Budget, he has found it really difficult and

:36:24.:36:28.

also the omnishambles Budget. But he has been in the Treasury for 11

:36:29.:36:34.

years for the Tories. And we will talk about whether that is too long

:36:35.:36:38.

in a moment. What is your feeling about whether or not it does any

:36:39.:36:42.

damage to him as a Chancellor. Because of the recovery really

:36:43.:36:46.

anything can go, Alice says committee can be forgiven anything.

:36:47.:36:50.

She mentioned the omnishambles Budget. We are looking for a word

:36:51.:36:55.

for this one. The ultra shambles Budget, maybe. The Tory whips did a

:36:56.:36:59.

good job to quarter make the backbenchers, to make sure they were

:37:00.:37:02.

supporting George Osborne, give him a boost. But even some of them told

:37:03.:37:08.

me that it is time to sell shares in George Osborne as a potential

:37:09.:37:12.

leader, because you can get one but it wrong, you cannot get two wrong.

:37:13.:37:19.

What about this idea by pushing disability cuts, and offering to

:37:20.:37:30.

higher the tax for tax gains, but also the fact that he doesn't read

:37:31.:37:34.

the mood any more? They said they would do it in the manifesto. It

:37:35.:37:39.

isn't as if he had it away and pounced it on them. They knew it

:37:40.:37:43.

would happen. But in terms of what the party needed, he didn't do that.

:37:44.:37:50.

It is difficult. But one particular word, disability, a disadvantaged

:37:51.:37:53.

group of people, they are vulnerable. It is a tough call. The

:37:54.:37:57.

general public quite like the benefit cuts, but when it is

:37:58.:38:02.

targeted to people who have disabilities. It suggests that he

:38:03.:38:09.

has a tin ear. Different to Stephen Crabb. The Chancellor has wanted to

:38:10.:38:15.

make an argument that he does care about the working poor and that it

:38:16.:38:19.

is balanced. For Iain Duncan Smith to make that criticism was powerful.

:38:20.:38:24.

It is unusual to see right-wing conservatives attacking a

:38:25.:38:28.

Chancellor, who probably sees himself as quite liberal for his

:38:29.:38:31.

austerity programme. Underneath all of this bubbling away, the issue of

:38:32.:38:35.

Europe. That is the big dividing line in the party. What is he going

:38:36.:38:43.

to do? I think he is waiting to see what will happen in November. It is

:38:44.:38:48.

staggered. Each time he has a new set of figures. Maybe he doesn't

:38:49.:38:55.

need one. Well, we don't know what will happen with the OBR. It is

:38:56.:38:59.

difficult for him to decide what he needs to do now. I think he knew he

:39:00.:39:06.

had to drop the PIP reforms. I think you knew they would be a disaster. I

:39:07.:39:10.

think he would have had a problem. They will not pull back on the

:39:11.:39:13.

welfare cap. They said they agree with the principle. What they are

:39:14.:39:21.

playing with is the level. ?4.4 billion has gone out. They are

:39:22.:39:24.

saying there are no plans for welfare cuts. We don't know if that

:39:25.:39:28.

means this year, this Parliament, that's not clear, but they are not

:39:29.:39:32.

going to reach that cap. He is hanging himself in a necessarily,

:39:33.:39:39.

according to some. Some people were thinking, did we need this welfare

:39:40.:39:42.

cap, did we need to put ourselves in this position in the first place?

:39:43.:39:48.

George Osborne did well today. He got his party back onside. They were

:39:49.:39:52.

all there against Labour. All being able to face their common enemy.

:39:53.:39:57.

They will now wait until the Autumn Statement. It does feel like, we are

:39:58.:40:01.

going to magic away the money when they re-forecast everything in the

:40:02.:40:06.

autumn. Truth is, he was on track for a surplus. He doesn't actually

:40:07.:40:14.

have to find the 4.4 billion. What is your political judgment? I think

:40:15.:40:18.

it was a case more of him looking at what he could do, and how he could

:40:19.:40:22.

organise a Budget. What is more deported for him at the moment is

:40:23.:40:29.

Europe. -- more important. If we actually have Brexit then everything

:40:30.:40:35.

changes. Absolutely. If there is a Brexit they are dead in the water.

:40:36.:40:40.

Before that let's talk about after the election, he was offered the

:40:41.:40:44.

Before that let's talk about after Foreign Office and he turned it

:40:45.:40:45.

down, do you think that was a mistake? That is a difficult

:40:46.:40:53.

decision to make. He has done this for 11 years which is a long time to

:40:54.:40:58.

be spokesman of anything. Now he could possibly look at that. He

:40:59.:41:04.

would be interesting doing it. Because he is a reformer. It would

:41:05.:41:08.

be interesting to see what he does. Maybe he has left it too late. Maybe

:41:09.:41:14.

now because of that he is toxic. I don't think so. I think he is one of

:41:15.:41:18.

those people who come back each time. Every single time something

:41:19.:41:21.

has gone wrong, he is good at coming back. It almost feels worse when

:41:22.:41:28.

your -- when you are in the middle of the storm. You wade your way

:41:29.:41:32.

through, and then you look back. Whether or not that happens, how do

:41:33.:41:37.

you think his chances of leadership are now? Clearly diminished. You had

:41:38.:41:43.

people who were supporting him and now think they are not convinced

:41:44.:41:47.

George Osborne can do it. Alice was making the right point, people see

:41:48.:41:50.

him as the person behind the economy, and they think the economy

:41:51.:41:54.

won the Conservatives the last election. There is still a chance.

:41:55.:41:59.

Even someone I know who support him a great deal is now saying, never

:42:00.:42:04.

say never for George as leader. Not a ringing endorsement exactly. And

:42:05.:42:09.

other people are coming to the fore as potential candidates. If the

:42:10.:42:13.

result in the referendum is Remain, then his stock will rise again. I

:42:14.:42:18.

think so, but I think David Cameron will stay on for another four years.

:42:19.:42:21.

That gives him a long time in politics. Let's say if you were to

:42:22.:42:26.

foreign affairs, or the Home Office, he would have a chance to show what

:42:27.:42:29.

else he can do. And he could be formidable again. If it is a

:42:30.:42:36.

convincing win for the Remain site, a lot of people have been saying

:42:37.:42:41.

that a difficult situation would be a narrow win for Remain, where some

:42:42.:42:46.

people in the party would feel they had been robbed. Thanks very much.

:42:47.:42:54.

The Times has bloodbath in Brussels as their headline. Two of the three

:42:55.:43:01.

suspected men involved are believed to be dead. Police are still looking

:43:02.:43:08.

for the man in the hat. The men on the left are wearing gloves because

:43:09.:43:12.

people think they were carrying detonators of the bombs that were

:43:13.:43:17.

actually on their trolleys. The Guardian has a different picture.

:43:18.:43:22.

What we feared has happened. At least 31 killed after terror attacks

:43:23.:43:27.

ripped through Brussels. Again, the picture of the men with the two

:43:28.:43:38.

gloved hands. And on the front of the Son, the same picture, with the

:43:39.:43:50.

black gloves circled. -- the Sun. In the daily Mirror, bloodbath in

:43:51.:43:54.

Brussels, CCTV catches airport bombers before attack. And the death

:43:55.:44:01.

toll reaches 31. High alert, as Cameron says, it could happen here.

:44:02.:44:05.

We leave you with some of the images captured today from those terrible

:44:06.:44:10.

Good evening. It is a fairly quiet start to the day on Wednesday, with

:44:11.:45:09.

a lot of cloud. It might produce the odd light shower

:45:10.:45:10.

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