What would Brexit mean for immigration? Newsnight


What would Brexit mean for immigration?

An EU referendum special live from Boston in Lincolnshire, debating the issue of immigration with invited guests and a studio audience. With Evan Davis.


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Transcript


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Migration is one of the most fraught issues in this referendum campaign.

:00:08.:00:14.

We're here in the bustling market town of Boston in Lincolnshire,

:00:15.:00:16.

an immigration hot spot, to ask, is it time to leave

:00:17.:00:20.

the EU and get control over who can live here?

:00:21.:00:25.

We have members of the public, 'S experts and politicians to help

:00:26.:00:32.

us negotiate our way through the issue.

:00:33.:00:35.

We'll ask, what are the prospects for population, if we stay

:00:36.:00:37.

in with free movement of EU citizens?

:00:38.:00:39.

And here in Boston, what has been the effect of migration so far?

:00:40.:00:54.

Hello, welcome to St Botolph's church, they call it a church,

:00:55.:00:57.

It's the biggest parish church in England, known

:00:58.:01:01.

We're guests here for the next hour, as we try to get our heads

:01:02.:01:07.

This is the fourth of our Newsnight specials on the main referendum

:01:08.:01:13.

issues, and we've come here for this one, as it is a town that has

:01:14.:01:16.

seen its population grow with central and east European

:01:17.:01:18.

migrants attracted by local jobs in agriculture

:01:19.:01:20.

A bigger proportion of east Europeans than

:01:21.:01:26.

According to a new national poll from Ipsos Mori,

:01:27.:01:30.

immigration is ranked as "very important" in this referendum by

:01:31.:01:33.

48% of the population, that puts it almost level

:01:34.:01:36.

with sovereignty and a little behind the economy in the rankings.

:01:37.:01:41.

Two-thirds of us believe, that if we leave the EU,

:01:42.:01:43.

Here in Boston, the effect of EU migration has been dramatic,

:01:44.:01:49.

We'll look at both with our two politicians.

:01:50.:01:57.

For Brexit, Conservative MP Kwasi Kwarteng.

:01:58.:01:59.

Labour MP, former minister in the Home Office in

:02:00.:02:04.

We also have experts and those with important

:02:05.:02:09.

And we have an audience too - some have been regulars

:02:10.:02:13.

But we have quite a number of people from this area.

:02:14.:02:28.

I thought we might start with comments from the audience.

:02:29.:02:35.

A quick show of hands, how many of you think immigration has gone too

:02:36.:02:45.

far? How many of you don't feel immigration has gone too far. So

:02:46.:02:53.

perhaps a few more of you think it has. Let's get some of the effects

:02:54.:02:59.

it has had in and around Austen. Angie Cook, what has your experience

:03:00.:03:07.

been with the arrival of so much New Labour in the town. I used to have

:03:08.:03:14.

an HGV drivers agency and pay a fair wage until another company in the

:03:15.:03:18.

Spalding area brought in immigrant drivers and they pay the minimum

:03:19.:03:25.

wage. They put them up in caravan sites. Or they have to pay for their

:03:26.:03:34.

living is ?35 a week to live in the caravan, plus food. Our drivers

:03:35.:03:38.

cannot compete with that. If our workers are on minimum wage, at the

:03:39.:03:42.

same as what the immigrant workers are, they live in these caravans and

:03:43.:03:47.

paid the minimum amount. We have to pay council tax, wrens, childcare

:03:48.:03:55.

costs out of the same money. Your business has now gone? I don't do

:03:56.:04:01.

the driving agency any more. What do you do now? I run a temperature

:04:02.:04:11.

control career business. Darren Bevan, what has been your effect of

:04:12.:04:17.

migration in this area? From our perspective, it has been a positive

:04:18.:04:25.

one. Food processing? Yes, I work for a business just outside of

:04:26.:04:29.

Austen. We have been around for about 15 years, make a contribution

:04:30.:04:37.

to employment and we do employ a large amount of migrant workers. It

:04:38.:04:43.

will be great but you because it has pushed the rates down. It allows us

:04:44.:04:50.

to be competitive within our business arena. And in any business,

:04:51.:04:55.

the objective is to be competitive in your business arena, yes. I know

:04:56.:05:00.

we have some central and Eastern European is here. What are you doing

:05:01.:05:07.

here? I came to Boston and started teaching at Boston College. I teach

:05:08.:05:14.

English. I happen to teach both, migrants and also native students. I

:05:15.:05:23.

don't have a lot of experience with migrant employment, but I am very

:05:24.:05:31.

close to the problems migrant people have, but they encounter in their

:05:32.:05:37.

daily life. I talked to my students and they do comment a lot. There has

:05:38.:05:46.

been a lot of concern about the pressure on public services, schools

:05:47.:05:50.

and hospitals. We will hear more about that through the programme.

:05:51.:05:56.

Caroline, I know you have been a head teacher, what is your

:05:57.:05:59.

experience because you must have lots of peoples who come into the

:06:00.:06:03.

school who don't have English as their first language? My school is

:06:04.:06:09.

in Grantham and we have a lot of migrants in the school population

:06:10.:06:13.

and we find they integrate very well with the strong pastoral support

:06:14.:06:19.

system. We do feel the RAF base feeds our school population as well.

:06:20.:06:24.

As regards education, as long as there is strong and robust pastoral

:06:25.:06:28.

systems and partnerships at every level, we have found the Eastern

:06:29.:06:32.

European is add another dimensional to the school. What do they add, I

:06:33.:06:40.

can see you can deal with the problems of language. Cultural

:06:41.:06:45.

aspects, work ethic and their parents contribute as well as the

:06:46.:06:50.

students. They are very much part of the community, as all students are.

:06:51.:06:54.

All students add different dimensions to academies, and that is

:06:55.:06:59.

the way it should be. They all contribute and have a lot to learn.

:07:00.:07:06.

And with a robust Pastoral system, transition allows students to settle

:07:07.:07:13.

in very well and they achieve a lot. Some of the themes we will pick up

:07:14.:07:16.

on as we talked through the issue. And we'll get more comments

:07:17.:07:24.

from the audience too. I should say there is also

:07:25.:07:27.

a Newsnight live blog, it will have lots of extra material

:07:28.:07:29.

and even potentially some fact clarifications

:07:30.:07:31.

as the programme progresses. You can find it at

:07:32.:07:33.

bbc.co.uk/newsnight. But why is migration

:07:34.:07:34.

an issue at all? The story of the EU

:07:35.:07:36.

is one of two halves. When we last voted on membership

:07:37.:07:41.

in 1975, the nine member states had But since then, the EU has

:07:42.:07:44.

tripled its membership, and brought in countries

:07:45.:07:50.

with far lower wages, That has created an incentive

:07:51.:07:52.

for inward economic migration on a scale this island has not seen

:07:53.:07:56.

since it was cut off from the continent by

:07:57.:07:59.

the English channel. Our policy editor Chris Cook has

:08:00.:08:02.

been out and about in Boston, Boston has been transformed

:08:03.:08:05.

by immigration. It is not just the mass

:08:06.:08:24.

of East European shops, it is not just the local agriculture

:08:25.:08:26.

and food processing industries who thrive on workers supplied

:08:27.:08:29.

by local employment agencies. And it is a change

:08:30.:08:31.

that divides opinion. I think the community has

:08:32.:08:39.

lost its Lincolnshireness. It should be again a good story

:08:40.:08:44.

for Boston because in fact We have had to create extra school

:08:45.:08:47.

places, we have had to expand schools, and we have had to build

:08:48.:08:53.

new schools and open free schools. Let's take a step back though,

:08:54.:08:59.

and look at the national picture. Total EU immigration was running

:09:00.:09:02.

at about 100,000 people a year until 2004, when it rose as a group

:09:03.:09:06.

of Eastern European countries Annual EU immigration is now a bit

:09:07.:09:08.

under 300,000 people a year. Now EU immigration is less than half

:09:09.:09:17.

of total immigration, Net immigration is about half

:09:18.:09:19.

of those totals. Now some of those East Europeans

:09:20.:09:39.

come here temporarily, living in cramped

:09:40.:09:41.

housing and saving up. So what do academics

:09:42.:09:44.

make of these flows? Well, they're usually quite

:09:45.:09:51.

positive. Well, we have done a study which now

:09:52.:09:54.

dates back some years, we're looking at the period

:09:55.:09:59.

between 1997 and 2005. And over that period what we found

:10:00.:10:03.

was that immigration held back wages at the very low end

:10:04.:10:06.

of wage distribution. On the other hand, that impact

:10:07.:10:11.

was very, very small. It did increase wages further up

:10:12.:10:15.

the distribution and on average the impact of migration on wages

:10:16.:10:18.

was actually positive. From the evidence we have

:10:19.:10:23.

from the study which dates back a little bit further,

:10:24.:10:27.

we found basically very little evidence that immigration has

:10:28.:10:31.

done anything in terms Boston's experience of EU

:10:32.:10:35.

migration is very extreme. Here in the town in the 2011 census

:10:36.:10:40.

they found 13% of the local population came from

:10:41.:10:43.

elsewhere in the EU. What that means is that all of those

:10:44.:10:47.

migration effect are really dialled For example, we know that migrants

:10:48.:10:50.

have powered big changes We know that better off people

:10:51.:10:55.

have done even better. But there has also been a squeeze

:10:56.:10:59.

on lower income people and it has come in the form of their living

:11:00.:11:03.

standards, not unemployment. This Labour councillor says changes

:11:04.:11:12.

to the local economy has Historically, we grew

:11:13.:11:15.

the vegetables, people came There has always been more work

:11:16.:11:22.

than could be done by local people. You would have people arriving

:11:23.:11:28.

in white vans you know, at four in the morning and before that,

:11:29.:11:31.

you would have itinerant Irish So there has always been

:11:32.:11:34.

the need for extra work. But in those days the vegetables

:11:35.:11:39.

were picked, the workers went home at four o'clock and the vegetables

:11:40.:11:42.

left Boston with them. What has happened now

:11:43.:11:44.

is there is much more processing of food going on and in truth

:11:45.:11:47.

lots of vegetables are actually being brought in from Europe

:11:48.:11:50.

to be processed here. And also technology has

:11:51.:11:53.

extended the farming season, so really now harvesting takes place

:11:54.:11:56.

for ten months of the year. Immigration has also had

:11:57.:11:58.

a big demographic side-effect. Walking around Boston,

:11:59.:12:01.

one thing is quite clear. It is actually quite a young town,

:12:02.:12:03.

even when you take account of the fact that we are here

:12:04.:12:06.

on the week of the May fair. When you look at who immigrants are,

:12:07.:12:10.

one of the very striking things So for example, here is a graph

:12:11.:12:17.

showing the age distribution It was taken through the annual

:12:18.:12:22.

population survey, a big What you can see is the huge swell

:12:23.:12:27.

of them in their early 30s. In fact, if you take people

:12:28.:12:33.

who are the same age as me, 33, across the whole of the UK,

:12:34.:12:36.

a full 5% of them were actually This local Ukip councillor says that

:12:37.:12:39.

an influx of young people has Unfortunately now we're

:12:40.:12:44.

in a situation whereby we have a lot of young men and this

:12:45.:12:52.

brings its own problems. Alcohol, of course, causes

:12:53.:12:55.

many, many problems. And it means they do disrespectful

:12:56.:12:59.

things in public where And then likewise, it means there's

:13:00.:13:03.

fighting and such problems Immigration has had other

:13:04.:13:11.

effects as well. Well, the main effects have been it

:13:12.:13:17.

has driven down wages, we have some of the lowest

:13:18.:13:20.

wages in the country, The average wage for an adult

:13:21.:13:22.

working full-time is only just And that is before the new living

:13:23.:13:26.

wage, that is last year's figures, And rents are some of the highest

:13:27.:13:32.

in the East Midlands. You have got in Nottingham

:13:33.:13:38.

about ?480 a month to rent a house. There's also a local problem

:13:39.:13:42.

with family homes being used to house large

:13:43.:13:51.

numbers of single people. If you are a less scrupulous

:13:52.:13:54.

landlord you can get a three-bedroom house,

:13:55.:13:56.

change the living room and the dining room into bedrooms,

:13:57.:13:58.

nothing in law stops you doing that. Two people in each room,

:13:59.:14:01.

ten persons in the house, ?60 each week, ?600 a week rent

:14:02.:14:03.

coming in and ?2400 a month. And that is more than the average

:14:04.:14:08.

family earns in a month. So there's no way an average family,

:14:09.:14:18.

whether they were born in Boston or come here

:14:19.:14:20.

as a family from Europe, So how many different

:14:21.:14:23.

languages have we got? We've got English, we've got one

:14:24.:14:26.

Polish, we've got two Portuguese. Left to their own devices,

:14:27.:14:29.

young people often make In 2014, 11% of children born

:14:30.:14:31.

in the UK had at least one parent The figure for where both parents

:14:32.:14:36.

are EU migrants is over 5%. Whose parents were not born

:14:37.:14:43.

in England, they were born

:14:44.:14:45.

in another country? This headteacher runs a chain

:14:46.:14:47.

of local schools with a large In the secondary sector, 36%

:14:48.:14:54.

are of Eastern European community. In one of our other primaries

:14:55.:15:03.

it is 42%. But if you go in to nursery,

:15:04.:15:06.

73% of children are not English. More children obviously

:15:07.:15:21.

need more school places. And that demand wave in Boston

:15:22.:15:27.

will soon hit secondaries. Lots of these children

:15:28.:15:30.

also get public money Fortunately, we do get additional

:15:31.:15:33.

funding for children who arrive in this country not

:15:34.:15:40.

speaking English. A child that has not been

:15:41.:15:50.

in in the country for three years, we would attract an additional

:15:51.:15:53.

thousand pounds per child. In our trust that equates to around

:15:54.:15:55.

?375,000 a year additional funding. Now, with that, we can appoint

:15:56.:15:58.

specialist staff who can Now, EU immigrants as a group

:15:59.:16:00.

are unusual in a way you might not expect from the type of work

:16:01.:16:05.

that they do. So immigrants to this country

:16:06.:16:08.

and in particular from Europe They are better educated

:16:09.:16:10.

than the average UK worker. However, that does not mean

:16:11.:16:16.

that they necessarily work from the very start

:16:17.:16:19.

of their migration history They very often downgrade

:16:20.:16:22.

because they're downgrading, they are working jobs

:16:23.:16:26.

which are below their observed Because they need some skills

:16:27.:16:29.

which are complimentary Such as for instance

:16:30.:16:33.

language skills. They acquire these skills and then

:16:34.:16:39.

they very quickly upgrade to those jobs which are more in line

:16:40.:16:42.

with the education Well this is the traditional

:16:43.:16:44.

game in Latvia. Indeed, lots of those who lack

:16:45.:16:53.

English skills have This local Latvian community leader

:16:54.:17:00.

has been trying to stop them It would be better to stop people

:17:01.:17:03.

coming in who don't speak English, it is better for them and safer

:17:04.:17:12.

for us as well. Those living in this

:17:13.:17:14.

country quite a long time. Because two years ago they opened

:17:15.:17:19.

the doors for new countries and these people came two years ago

:17:20.:17:22.

and now they're actually working Some of these people working

:17:23.:17:25.

for ?3.50 an hour, that is illegal. And this again, exploitation

:17:26.:17:33.

is just going on. We are here ten years now,

:17:34.:17:39.

they opened the doors for Lithuania, Latvia and Poland and we have been

:17:40.:17:43.

exploited when we came here. Local authorities can act

:17:44.:17:47.

on some problems. We have managed to get two grants

:17:48.:17:55.

from government to run The first one went for a year,

:17:56.:17:59.

we inspected over 240 properties and issued over 280 enforcement

:18:00.:18:03.

notices, so some properties had Four of the properties

:18:04.:18:06.

as I understand it were not actually And we actually found some

:18:07.:18:12.

properties where people were being forced to live

:18:13.:18:16.

in wooden sheds. Others though, think we should call

:18:17.:18:18.

time on our EU membership. I feel that our country

:18:19.:18:23.

is becoming overwhelmed. We are only a small island,

:18:24.:18:28.

although I do believe But I do think we need very

:18:29.:18:34.

seriously to have our borders back. There is a hard question

:18:35.:18:39.

for the Leave campaign Would immigration actually

:18:40.:18:42.

be lower post Brexit? It is certainly the case that

:18:43.:18:48.

if we were to leave the European Union,

:18:49.:18:51.

we would have an opportunity What we cannot say though,

:18:52.:18:53.

is what that immigration So for example, it is quite

:18:54.:18:57.

plausible that a future British Government would cut a trade

:18:58.:19:02.

deal with the EU to get market access to that big market and part

:19:03.:19:06.

of the price of that would be much the same migration conditions

:19:07.:19:10.

as we have right now. Few other towns, or their annual

:19:11.:19:17.

fairs, have been so But few also face such congestion,

:19:18.:19:19.

or pressure on living standards. So the effects of migration are more

:19:20.:19:29.

nuanced and much harder to spot. Well we can now look at our

:19:30.:19:52.

experience of EU migration. David Hanson to start with you for the

:19:53.:19:57.

Remain side. Do you like free movement in Europe or are you

:19:58.:20:01.

someone who says free movement is just a price we have Depay to be in

:20:02.:20:08.

a good thing, the EU? Free movement I think has good value but the

:20:09.:20:12.

greatest value from me is the fact that we have access to a market of

:20:13.:20:17.

500 million people. Where we can sell goods, we can import and export

:20:18.:20:23.

goods, and I have constituents who make planes in France as well as

:20:24.:20:26.

constituents who make planes in the UK. The people doing business across

:20:27.:20:32.

the whole of the EU. Everyone says the rest of Europe says if you want

:20:33.:20:35.

to be in the single market you've got to go with the free movement of

:20:36.:20:38.

people. But let's suppose the EU said look you do not need

:20:39.:20:44.

pre-movement, would you say the best immigration policy is one that says

:20:45.:20:48.

anyone from the EU can come in and we are quite selective, about people

:20:49.:20:52.

outside the EU. I would put caveats on the EU movement, there has been

:20:53.:20:56.

some agreement with the Conservative government on the issue of whether,

:20:57.:21:00.

people paying in before the draw out. Issues were raised in the film

:21:01.:21:06.

about undercutting wages for example, about housing, and I

:21:07.:21:11.

propose motions in the last Parliament to enforce minimum wage,

:21:12.:21:18.

to stop gang masters and enforce housing regulations. So I think

:21:19.:21:23.

there is free movement and we should not forget there are 1.2 million

:21:24.:21:29.

British people who live in mainland Europe. I'm still not 100% clear as

:21:30.:21:33.

to whether you actually think that is a good thing in itself whether

:21:34.:21:37.

that is just something you have got to put up with. This is part of my

:21:38.:21:42.

genuine attachment to the issue at my grandfather had free movement in

:21:43.:21:49.

Europe, he went to fight Germans in World War I. My uncle died in World

:21:50.:21:53.

War II. Premy that was free movement but not free movement in a positive

:21:54.:21:56.

economic market of 500 million people. That is what I think is that

:21:57.:22:02.

prize in this. 500 million people in a big market. You think that the EU

:22:03.:22:10.

made a mistake, this is perhaps of relevance to Boston, Debbie EU make

:22:11.:22:12.

a mistake because it always said it wanted free movement as part of the

:22:13.:22:17.

package early on. 2004 suddenly changed massively and became to

:22:18.:22:25.

different sections. The poor low-income part and the high income

:22:26.:22:30.

part. That is right, I was an officer at the time, not the Home

:22:31.:22:35.

Office but in others at the time and they should be brought transitional

:22:36.:22:39.

approaches to that. Even now we have a situation whereby income levels

:22:40.:22:46.

are desperate. But ultimately again, I entered Parliament 24 years ago,

:22:47.:22:52.

we had the eastern European states under Russian rule. We had a lack of

:22:53.:22:58.

looking outwards to the west, no open markets there. Come back in 20

:22:59.:23:03.

or 30 years and we will see Eastern Europe rising in terms of its

:23:04.:23:07.

economic austerity, it will be part of a wider market with us and

:23:08.:23:12.

creating jobs not just here in the UK but also in Eastern Europe. For

:23:13.:23:16.

me that a surprise that we have got to work for and fight for. We cannot

:23:17.:23:21.

walk away from it on the 24th of June. If the Prime Minister had been

:23:22.:23:26.

able to negotiate as perhaps the wanted to, if he had to negotiate an

:23:27.:23:32.

emergency brake, would you support the idea of that? I think the Prime

:23:33.:23:40.

Minister wanted to have a positive recommendation so his expectations I

:23:41.:23:43.

think were quite low in terms of what he was seeking in the

:23:44.:23:47.

negotiations. What I want to see is where still not part of the Schengen

:23:48.:23:51.

Agreement, labour and the Conservatives do not believe that we

:23:52.:23:56.

should be part of that. We are an island, we have strong border

:23:57.:24:05.

control now. In my view, and I was the Home Office minster, we now have

:24:06.:24:11.

strong border control. What we do have is free movement and I would

:24:12.:24:14.

say to people there are people here from eastern Europe, 1.2 million

:24:15.:24:19.

British people in mainland Europe. If we leave the EU gives me an

:24:20.:24:24.

answer as to what happens to those people who currently live on

:24:25.:24:30.

mainland Europe. Let me ask that question, but before that, are you

:24:31.:24:36.

glad the central and eastern Europeans came to the UK and

:24:37.:24:41.

contributed? It would be wrong to say there were no benefits. What I

:24:42.:24:48.

would say, there was a huge scale and the biggest immigration we have

:24:49.:24:54.

had since the UK left the continent and the English Channel was formed

:24:55.:24:58.

thousands of years ago. I am the product of immigrants, my parents

:24:59.:25:02.

came from West Africa in the early 1960s and I recognised the benefits

:25:03.:25:08.

of migration. But in the last ten years you have a scale and magnitude

:25:09.:25:11.

we have never seen before and I think the internal institutions of

:25:12.:25:15.

the country, my own constituency, school places, it is a difficult

:25:16.:25:20.

issue. The other thing is that the EU changed, at the beginning the

:25:21.:25:28.

countries of the EU were roughly comparable in terms of their

:25:29.:25:36.

economic status, their GDP. When you have a situation with Eastern

:25:37.:25:40.

European accession countries who threw no fault of their own, you

:25:41.:25:46.

looking at minimum wage rates of ?1 in Bulgaria and ?2 an hour in

:25:47.:25:51.

Poland, and our minimum wage is now ?7 and going up to ?9 and more by

:25:52.:25:57.

2020, you do not need an economics degree to work out there are huge

:25:58.:26:00.

incentives for a lot of people to the UK and that process is verging

:26:01.:26:05.

on uncontrollable. Even with hindsight tummy watcher immigration

:26:06.:26:09.

policy with regards to the eastern and central European countries,

:26:10.:26:13.

Europe idealise policy if you had been allowed to set that, what would

:26:14.:26:19.

it have been in 2004? Well David himself could well that they needed

:26:20.:26:24.

to be transition. If you read the accounts of Labour politicians that

:26:25.:26:28.

the time... What with the right number have been? In 2010 when I was

:26:29.:26:35.

first elected to Parliament, the Conservative Party manifesto said it

:26:36.:26:41.

would reduce immigration to tens of thousands. That was a clear

:26:42.:26:44.

manifesto commitment that we have not reached. The reason why is

:26:45.:26:49.

because largely because of EU membership. You have not got to that

:26:50.:26:57.

on the non-EU migration. You cannot blame the EU, you're not even close.

:26:58.:27:01.

If you had no migration from the EU you would not be close to that

:27:02.:27:04.

target. So how can you blame the EU for that target? You would

:27:05.:27:15.

acknowledge that there are two portions, the non-EU bid and the EU

:27:16.:27:20.

bid. If we were to leave the EU we would be able to have some control

:27:21.:27:24.

of that. Then we can worry about the other bit as you say. The other bit

:27:25.:27:29.

is aware, it is a points system, much more regulated, people are

:27:30.:27:34.

coming in that effectively we can choose for us but free movement of

:27:35.:27:37.

people we do not have a choice. That is the fundamental difference. Let

:27:38.:27:42.

me introduce a couple of people, to local people with professional

:27:43.:27:44.

experience of the effects of rabbit population growth.

:27:45.:27:48.

Alyson Buxton is the rector for the Parish of Boston.

:27:49.:27:50.

And Rohini Deshmukh, a GP in Boston until

:27:51.:27:52.

Alyson Buxton, we have heard of the talk of the cultural difficulties.

:27:53.:28:13.

The demographic of young, single men coming into the town in large

:28:14.:28:18.

numbers. What has been your experience? It is interesting that

:28:19.:28:25.

we are here who was the patron saint of travellers and wayfarers. We know

:28:26.:28:31.

people have visited the sometime here. But the percentage has

:28:32.:28:37.

increased. As a church, what is important is we try to be at the

:28:38.:28:48.

centre. We come at it in a different way. It is about dignity. Any vote

:28:49.:28:54.

for instance, for me is not necessarily just about what I feel

:28:55.:29:01.

is best for me. It is about what is best for common humanity, what is

:29:02.:29:08.

best for the poor and what is best for the marginalised. We are in the

:29:09.:29:12.

very centre of that. We find in this very church, it isn't just about

:29:13.:29:18.

Sunday, it is about every single day of the week. Even if we think about

:29:19.:29:25.

our votive stands and how they are used. We buy about 15,000 votive

:29:26.:29:33.

Stans a year. Sorry, candles. What you are saying is, because the

:29:34.:29:43.

numbers coming in have been boosted by... The church is central and the

:29:44.:29:53.

church is being used... There has been change in the community,

:29:54.:29:58.

without a doubt. Rohini Deshmukh, you are a GP. Answer the question

:29:59.:30:05.

because a lot of people say it puts pressure on medical services. Did

:30:06.:30:10.

you find yourself with too much to do because of the population growth?

:30:11.:30:15.

Absolutely, there is no doubt the numbers went up. Having problems

:30:16.:30:20.

anyway with coping with what we are dealing with, the numbers. With no

:30:21.:30:32.

infrastructure or no mechanism put in to cope with that, you have to

:30:33.:30:39.

take patients in because they are in your locality. It is unethical not

:30:40.:30:47.

to register patients, just because you cannot cope. There was a time

:30:48.:30:53.

when people were saying, an interesting thing about migrants,

:30:54.:30:56.

particularly polls and others, they are young men who don't tend to be

:30:57.:31:02.

big users of the health service, not a population of elderly people. Was

:31:03.:31:08.

that your experience? It is not 100% true. Everybody needs medical aid

:31:09.:31:13.

and the problem with that is, apart from them going to GPs, I know it is

:31:14.:31:24.

a diversion, I am a GP, but the hospital A get flooded with these

:31:25.:31:29.

people because they don't get time. They are so strict with them,

:31:30.:31:35.

getting time off with sick leave or whatever, they don't get that so

:31:36.:31:39.

they go to A and present themselves there. Was there a

:31:40.:31:45.

mistake made, when we saw the numbers coming in, in providing the

:31:46.:31:51.

infrastructure, let's call it? There was a migration fund established in

:31:52.:31:56.

2008 by the then Labour government. Lincolnshire in 2009, 2010 had

:31:57.:32:03.

almost ?1 million for that. The current government abolished the

:32:04.:32:09.

fund in 2011. We are in Boston and there are pressures and I recognise

:32:10.:32:13.

them. In my constituency, similar things are happening. We should look

:32:14.:32:18.

at how we can support languages and health services. There are 100,000

:32:19.:32:23.

people from Eastern Europe and mainland Europe who work in the

:32:24.:32:26.

health service currently in the United Kingdom. Let's go to the

:32:27.:32:32.

audience. Who would like to make a comment about this point of

:32:33.:32:34.

infrastructure, gentlemen in the front in the blue shirt? I am a

:32:35.:32:40.

foreigner myself, I am from Yorkshire. But the infrastructure is

:32:41.:32:48.

very poor and it cannot cope. I am a health visitor and the two years

:32:49.:32:52.

working in Boston, finishing in December. Half of the newborn babies

:32:53.:33:00.

were from Lithuania or Poland. I do think immigration should be

:33:01.:33:04.

controlled. However, I am surprised to the attitude because I have met a

:33:05.:33:14.

lot of Polish people and they are the warmest, friendless and hardest

:33:15.:33:16.

working people. APPLAUSE

:33:17.:33:18.

Take the gentleman there and then we will go to the lady. The point I

:33:19.:33:27.

would like to make is on a wider scale, we are a sovereign nation

:33:28.:33:33.

state and it is up to us to decide how many people come into our

:33:34.:33:38.

country. It may be one person a year, it may be 1 million. But it is

:33:39.:33:48.

up to us as at country to decide not to have these open borders. We

:33:49.:33:53.

cannot cope with 300,000 people coming in every year. Where do they

:33:54.:33:58.

go and how do the services look after them? So we had to take

:33:59.:34:01.

control of this. APPLAUSE

:34:02.:34:04.

The lady in the purple top. I am an Lincolnshire County Council. My

:34:05.:34:07.

residents are complaining bitterly so much about how our Jack has been

:34:08.:34:16.

put under stress. One of the issues is policing, visible policing. The

:34:17.:34:20.

migrants have been given a special police officer. That is special

:34:21.:34:28.

treatment and it costs money. It costs ?350,000 per annum for

:34:29.:34:31.

interpreters for Lincolnshire Police. We're not getting any extra

:34:32.:34:36.

money for this and it is depriving our residents, who have been here,

:34:37.:34:42.

pay taxes for years, of the visible policing they wish for because

:34:43.:34:46.

resources are being put elsewhere because of the strain of the

:34:47.:34:53.

migrants. You are Ukip counsellor? I am a Ukip County Council and we are

:34:54.:35:01.

a growing force here because we are being ignored because the

:35:02.:35:05.

politicians and the establishment don't take any notice of what is

:35:06.:35:08.

going on. APPLAUSE

:35:09.:35:10.

Just a show of hands, how many people feel you will have been

:35:11.:35:15.

better disposed to immigration if more money and more resorts is what

:35:16.:35:20.

put forward to cope with the bottlenecks and stresses caused by

:35:21.:35:25.

it? How many feel those stresses and thinks... How many of you feel that

:35:26.:35:31.

is not really the problem. This gentleman over here. You have got to

:35:32.:35:36.

control the numbers coming in. You talk about a shortage of housing and

:35:37.:35:42.

school places, hospitals and Doc is. It is obvious coming you have 300

:35:43.:35:46.

thousand minimum coming into the country. That is not counting the

:35:47.:35:49.

illegal immigrants and those that come across the tunnel and given

:35:50.:35:52.

hotel places. It is not about putting more money into the health

:35:53.:35:59.

service to cope? You cannot keep pouring money into an open pit.

:36:00.:36:05.

While you have got 300,000 people coming in a year, you will never

:36:06.:36:08.

control anything. I want to bring in two

:36:09.:36:11.

national figures now. Harriet Sergeant, who's written two

:36:12.:36:13.

reports on immigration And also here, Jonathan Portes

:36:14.:36:15.

of the National Institute An economist, he is quite an expert

:36:16.:36:19.

on migration, and produced a report today on Brexit,

:36:20.:36:23.

migration and the economy. Jonathan, economist are mildly in

:36:24.:36:33.

favour of immigration, they don't exaggerate the benefits. But what

:36:34.:36:39.

was your report's central conclusion? You heard a lot of

:36:40.:36:46.

concern about public services. Let's be clear, more people means more

:36:47.:36:50.

demands on public services, school places, more demands on GPs. But,

:36:51.:36:57.

migrants also pay taxes. Especially migrants from Europe. Because they

:36:58.:37:05.

are more likely to be in work, much more likely to be of working age. We

:37:06.:37:15.

spend most of the money the welfare state spends goes on old people and

:37:16.:37:22.

to some extent, to the kids. It doesn't go on people of working age.

:37:23.:37:27.

What our analysis suggests, as does that of many others, migrants, on

:37:28.:37:31.

average, especially European migrants, pay in more than they take

:37:32.:37:39.

out. We should be clear on this, at least on a national level. If you

:37:40.:37:46.

want lower migration, then I think leaving the EU will mean we can end

:37:47.:37:53.

freedom of movement and it will mean we can reduce migration, not to the

:37:54.:37:56.

tens of thousands, even reducing migration from the EU, we could

:37:57.:38:00.

reduce it, but the cost would be either higher taxes or worse public

:38:01.:38:06.

services. We would lose more money from the taxes the migrants who

:38:07.:38:10.

weren't here, wouldn't be paying than we would save. Wait, the

:38:11.:38:17.

microphone is not new. That is not true. 75% of migrants go into

:38:18.:38:24.

low-paid jobs. That means they are getting housing benefit, getting tax

:38:25.:38:30.

credits, getting child benefit. We are in this extraordinary position

:38:31.:38:35.

where we are subsidising migrants to take low-paid jobs and we are

:38:36.:38:40.

sidelining of the people who could have been doing those jobs. So they

:38:41.:38:49.

are not paying in more. They are simply not paying more tax, we are

:38:50.:38:58.

subsidising their jobs. One of you is right, one of you is wrong. BBC

:38:59.:39:06.

graph... That is wrong, Harriet. I would

:39:07.:40:52.

On that basis you could have 100 million migrants from China who

:40:53.:40:58.

would be economically productive and would bring huge benefits. There is

:40:59.:41:09.

financial activity which the numbers bring an personal finance, how that

:41:10.:41:15.

benefits people individually. As we have seen it just does not. Mostly

:41:16.:41:21.

the poorest in society suffer from migration. In a word, if I told you

:41:22.:41:32.

there is a small cost, call it a penny on the basic rate of income

:41:33.:41:36.

tax, as a result of reducing migration, would you still do it? It

:41:37.:41:44.

depends on the numbers. You said my case was preposterous, 100 million.

:41:45.:41:50.

It is all about the numbers. Let's pause for a moment. We have been

:41:51.:41:54.

talking about the effect of migration to date. What happens if

:41:55.:41:57.

things carry on as they are? The population of the UK right now

:41:58.:42:01.

is fast approaching 66 million. Now, the clever folks at the Office

:42:02.:42:04.

for National Statistics make projections as to how

:42:05.:42:07.

that will grow. Based on what they think

:42:08.:42:09.

are sensible assumptions. By 2027 we are projected to reach

:42:10.:42:13.

70 million and we get That is when a 20-year-old

:42:14.:42:16.

today reaches 64. Half the growth is down

:42:17.:42:23.

to net migration. Britain becomes Europe's

:42:24.:42:26.

most populous country in the official projections,

:42:27.:42:29.

comfortably exceeding Germany. There's even an official projection

:42:30.:42:32.

for the borough of Boston. It sees the population of 68,000

:42:33.:42:37.

grow by 500 a year for England is already one of the most

:42:38.:42:40.

densely populated nations of Europe. How easy will it be to create homes,

:42:41.:42:47.

roads, power stations and water supplies for a population

:42:48.:42:50.

on the projected scale? As I said in that graphic,

:42:51.:42:57.

those projections are official, but they are not meant

:42:58.:43:00.

to be reliable forecasts. They are just projections

:43:01.:43:04.

based on assumptions Maybe the economies of eastern

:43:05.:43:06.

Europe will grow, and people Or maybe Turkey will join

:43:07.:43:12.

and there will be many David Hanson, the projections show

:43:13.:43:29.

80 million in 2016. Are you comfortable with that? I do not

:43:30.:43:34.

believe we will get to 80 million. The key question is a economy has

:43:35.:43:40.

got to be able to sustain that. Therefore if there is economic

:43:41.:43:45.

growth, and jobs being created, there will be people who have got to

:43:46.:43:50.

do that work. Not just in Boston but in different parts of the country.

:43:51.:43:59.

You can see if it is 1 million, 2 million, the maths could work out

:44:00.:44:05.

but 80 million, when you get to 80 million, do you think the quality of

:44:06.:44:09.

life would improve if we built the roads and houses, are you convinced

:44:10.:44:13.

that quality of life would improve? I think they go hand-in-hand. We

:44:14.:44:19.

will have a natural limit at some point, I cannot project what it will

:44:20.:44:23.

be. For me the question is how do we ensure that we have economic growth

:44:24.:44:30.

because that is what is important. Sometimes that means skills

:44:31.:44:33.

shortages. If someone wanted to come from Italy and set up a business

:44:34.:44:39.

here in Boston, would we say you cannot come because we do not have

:44:40.:44:44.

the infrastructure. I think with got to look at how we encourage economic

:44:45.:44:49.

growth across the whole of Europe. That will ultimately include the

:44:50.:44:52.

eastern European countries, even the lower part of Italy where there are

:44:53.:44:58.

more economic growth because ultimately the economic success of

:44:59.:45:00.

the 500 million people in Europe depends on all of us. At the moment

:45:01.:45:05.

they're just exporting their unemployed young people to us. Do

:45:06.:45:13.

those official projections, you think that they will happen? I think

:45:14.:45:21.

the projections are likely to stop 35 years ago the senses of

:45:22.:45:27.

population was 56 million, today around 65. Some people say 67 or 68.

:45:28.:45:35.

I think 80 million, just another 12 million, is easily achievable and

:45:36.:45:40.

easily something under the influx of immigration that we have had that

:45:41.:45:43.

could be reached. I do not understand why David is so clear

:45:44.:45:50.

that it will not happen. The point is, it is a waste of time speaking

:45:51.:45:56.

of numbers but the point is we have no control over numbers. If the

:45:57.:46:00.

whole of Greece if it collapsed tomorrow, which could be possible,

:46:01.:46:05.

the whole of Greece could move here. There is nothing stopping the

:46:06.:46:11.

numbers. Nothing. But the whole of Greece is not going to move here.

:46:12.:46:20.

You with a party that told us know when from, that's 30,000 Polish

:46:21.:46:24.

people were going to come if that. That is part of the economic growth

:46:25.:46:27.

that has created jobs that need filling. Do you think that the whole

:46:28.:46:33.

of France, Italy or Greece are going to come here? The point is that they

:46:34.:46:38.

could. And we have no control over who comes into our country or in

:46:39.:46:44.

what numbers. That is the point. You can say it is impossible,

:46:45.:46:47.

technically it is not impossible. That is the point, that we should be

:46:48.:46:52.

able to control who comes into the country.

:46:53.:47:00.

Jonathan, should we believe those projections, they are the official

:47:01.:47:04.

projections, statisticians make these projections and tell us that

:47:05.:47:07.

they're not forecasts and then they are used in all the forecasts

:47:08.:47:13.

everyone makes. Knows short answer. They are perfectly plausible. --

:47:14.:47:20.

know is the short answer. But long-term forecasts have been made.

:47:21.:47:25.

I live in a place called Islington in north London. It happens to be

:47:26.:47:32.

the most densely populated local authority in the country. It is the

:47:33.:47:37.

most crowded place in the country. In the 1970s, when I moved there,

:47:38.:47:42.

inner London last 20% of the population. It was a pretty dreadful

:47:43.:47:47.

place at that stage economically and in many other ways. All we have a

:47:48.:47:53.

lot of problems now in Islington as you do in Boston, because of the

:47:54.:47:59.

pressure of a growing population, the pressure it puts on public

:48:00.:48:04.

services and other ways. But the downside of a shrinking population,

:48:05.:48:08.

think of what life would be like in Boston is the population shrank by

:48:09.:48:13.

15%. But that is not going to happen. 80 million, I do not know if

:48:14.:48:17.

you've looked at the physical infrastructure, but in London if we

:48:18.:48:22.

built a desalination plant to provide water, a strange thing for

:48:23.:48:28.

the UK to have to do. It is a densely populated city, as you know,

:48:29.:48:36.

but more broadly, Harriet is right in one sense, as long as we are a

:48:37.:48:43.

member of the EU and if we vote to remain, free movement means we do

:48:44.:48:46.

not have control over numbers, that is right. But there would still be

:48:47.:48:52.

hard choices even if we had control, about economic matters. Just to go

:48:53.:48:57.

to the audience for a second. A little show of hands. I want to get

:48:58.:49:04.

at those of you who accept the migration we have had and I know

:49:05.:49:09.

many of you do not, but whether basically you worry about there

:49:10.:49:13.

being another ten or 20 years of this. So the published a Boston

:49:14.:49:18.

projected to grow at 500 per year for the next couple of decades, how

:49:19.:49:22.

many of you are worried by that prospect? Quite a few of you. And

:49:23.:49:30.

how many of you would be worried, have been worried by what happened

:49:31.:49:34.

in the past ten years? So a lot of you, I'm trying to get at how many

:49:35.:49:41.

more of you are worried about extra growth than previous growth. Any

:49:42.:49:45.

comments on the kind of projections M the lady in the second row. I

:49:46.:49:51.

think we are looking at it from the wrong angle. The idea of the EU, one

:49:52.:49:57.

of the four fundamental freedoms is free movement and I think the best

:49:58.:50:01.

person for the job should get the job. So if there is a job there than

:50:02.:50:07.

anyone within the EU should be entitled to have that job. Just

:50:08.:50:13.

because you're British, just because I'm British, it does not mean that I

:50:14.:50:16.

should be any more entitled to that job than anyone else. And you could

:50:17.:50:24.

compete for a job in Spain or France or Italy.

:50:25.:50:33.

There are always winners and losers, technology is the big winner now and

:50:34.:50:38.

there will be many jobs gone. A lot of people think that we're winning

:50:39.:50:43.

now and will later be last in the words of the song. There are big

:50:44.:50:49.

changes going on around the world and you look at China and India,

:50:50.:50:56.

Ph.D. Students and they will be looking for jobs. If you have free

:50:57.:50:59.

movement of people then they will take some of the jobs that people

:51:00.:51:04.

feel safe with, economist jobs, educators jobs. And that would upset

:51:05.:51:13.

you? People must realise that the winners now will later be last. And

:51:14.:51:21.

there are pressures. There's too much change in the country and we

:51:22.:51:24.

will it. The gentleman with the glasses behind you. We've just got

:51:25.:51:34.

to stop and take stock. Stop talking about and scaring people about how

:51:35.:51:36.

many people are coming in and talking about forging and losing

:51:37.:51:42.

people, you're off your head. You've got to stop think about controlling

:51:43.:51:47.

the amount of people coming into our country. We are a great country, it

:51:48.:51:53.

is Britain. We have survived and lived on the island, we can get back

:51:54.:51:58.

and if we have to leave Europe we will still be able to fish and set

:51:59.:52:01.

our own targets, still be able to buy cheese and wine. No one is going

:52:02.:52:07.

to stop this country from succeeding. The gentleman at the

:52:08.:52:17.

back. Migration over the centuries has brought new ideas, new vibrancy.

:52:18.:52:24.

As a race we are a mongrel race, how far do you want to go back, we had

:52:25.:52:28.

various migration of different centuries. We are a port and we have

:52:29.:52:34.

a great Portuguese community. Migration will bring new ideas and

:52:35.:52:39.

businesses, they will assimilate and become British. The gentleman next

:52:40.:52:46.

to you. I work in a hospital down the road and migration for hospitals

:52:47.:52:51.

has been positive. The hospital across the road would probably have

:52:52.:52:55.

collapsed and been unable to cope with demand, the amount of migrants

:52:56.:53:03.

working there and providing care, where we find that government is

:53:04.:53:09.

cutting British trained nurses and doctors, we have got to bring these

:53:10.:53:12.

people link to deliver care to British people. It is an issue of

:53:13.:53:17.

policy rather than migration. That is a good point, that the numbers

:53:18.:53:22.

coming here have made public services more viable by getting the

:53:23.:53:30.

numbers up. Do you think that is true? I think it is a good point.

:53:31.:53:37.

There was appointed couple of years ago brought up again where they were

:53:38.:53:43.

deciding to close the maternity unit and following that the paediatric

:53:44.:53:48.

unit at the hospital because of their not being enough deliveries.

:53:49.:53:55.

So they said we cannot run the unit. That really would be dreadful for

:53:56.:54:00.

women in labour are trying to make their way to Lincoln or wherever. So

:54:01.:54:06.

I think that is a valid point. Let me come back to my panel for a

:54:07.:54:13.

moment. Just to clarify one thing, are we going to get, some people say

:54:14.:54:19.

let's get our borders back. Are we going to get the water back if we

:54:20.:54:26.

vote for wrecks it? It is not a black-and-white simple yes or no

:54:27.:54:32.

answer. -- vote for Brexit. That is casting a dark shadow over this

:54:33.:54:36.

discussion. The word control is the word that keeps coming back and

:54:37.:54:40.

taking some kind of control over the process. No one is saying we will

:54:41.:54:44.

ban migration from ever happening, no one has said migration is wrong

:54:45.:54:48.

and people should never leave their country. My own story is one of

:54:49.:54:55.

migration and I celebrate that. But I would say we need to have some

:54:56.:55:01.

measure of control. That is what is coming from the audience loud and

:55:02.:55:05.

clear. Are you prepared as others in the Leave campaign to save we do not

:55:06.:55:09.

want to be in a single market because most people seem to agree if

:55:10.:55:16.

we are in that, we lose control. I think that is the basis of the

:55:17.:55:23.

negotiation. I do not know what the terms would be. If they were to say

:55:24.:55:31.

you can only join the single market if you have unrestricted vibration

:55:32.:55:36.

from Europe, I would probably say no. But I think we can reach a

:55:37.:55:45.

discussion, that is the point. Norway and Switzerland are both

:55:46.:55:48.

outside the EU and both part of the single market and one of the

:55:49.:55:51.

conditions for them to do that is to have that free movement. Do you know

:55:52.:55:56.

what proportions of Norwegians want to go in the EU, 72% in the last

:55:57.:56:06.

polled do not want to enter the EU. The numbers have gone up. I come

:56:07.:56:11.

back to the central economic argument and the issue is as the UK

:56:12.:56:17.

do we want access to a 500 million market with investment and sales

:56:18.:56:22.

across Europe. If we do then freedom of movement is part of that and we

:56:23.:56:27.

have got to have controls. You said before we had great control. We have

:56:28.:56:33.

got to have measures, one example, we currently have people where

:56:34.:56:39.

recruitment agencies only recruit in Eastern Europe and local people

:56:40.:56:42.

cannot get access to the jobs. That is not fare so we've got to work on

:56:43.:56:47.

labour market issues and at the same time for the economy we've got to be

:56:48.:56:50.

part of the 500 million single market. Canada has a trade deal with

:56:51.:56:56.

the EU with access to the EU market and they do not have free movement.

:56:57.:56:59.

I do not see why we cannot do something similar. They have access

:57:00.:57:10.

to part of the EU market. Now we need to know what terms we would be

:57:11.:57:20.

going in. You mentioned Norway. I do not want to get into a discussion

:57:21.:57:26.

about the Norwegian option. We are going to get into a programme on

:57:27.:57:29.

that but to be clear, it may be the cost of this discussion would be the

:57:30.:57:36.

single market as well as... Can I ask you, I want to get the opinions

:57:37.:57:48.

of the panel. Is there any potential detriment of voting for Brexit to

:57:49.:57:54.

the EU citizens already here question mark I do not see any

:57:55.:58:00.

because of the principle of British law, things do not act

:58:01.:58:06.

retrospectively. Someone resident here, who has a job here and no

:58:07.:58:10.

other rights to be here other than through the EU. I spoke to one

:58:11.:58:16.

French lady who was terrified that she would be forcibly removed. There

:58:17.:58:24.

are huge scare stories. The Remain people saying that British people in

:58:25.:58:27.

France would be kicked out, this is complete fantasy. It will not

:58:28.:58:32.

happen. There is no legal basis. We cannot change that.

:58:33.:58:38.

David, is that correct, that the people here don't need to worry at

:58:39.:58:48.

all? My point would be, he is quite right, I don't think anyone on the

:58:49.:58:54.

Leave side wants to check people out. The legal practicalities of

:58:55.:58:59.

determining who would qualify, when is the cut-off date, how many years

:59:00.:59:04.

of the last tender you have to live here? Given we don't have records!

:59:05.:59:11.

The complications would be immense. David, last question for you. On the

:59:12.:59:21.

economy, on security, the Leave side were coming up with a proposition to

:59:22.:59:26.

change and in a way your side was saying status quo, comfortable,

:59:27.:59:33.

security. It feels like the boot is on the other foot, is this your

:59:34.:59:38.

biggest vulnerability? There are real challenges. What is your

:59:39.:59:46.

constituency? The key thing I want to see, how do we make the economy

:59:47.:59:51.

work, make free markets work, make free movement work, but at the same

:59:52.:59:56.

time put in some mechanisms, enforcement on housing, enforcement

:59:57.:00:02.

on minimum wages and enforcement on recruitment agencies to make sure we

:00:03.:00:05.

have a fair market and we maximise the skills to grow the economy

:00:06.:00:08.

fairly. We could carry on -

:00:09.:00:12.

maybe we should, but we can't do so on BBC Two for any

:00:13.:00:14.

longer, we're out of time. The issues of how many people

:00:15.:00:17.

live in this country, and who they should be,

:00:18.:00:19.

obviously get to the heart It's not as significant in many

:00:20.:00:21.

parts of the country as it is here, but we've taken a brief tour

:00:22.:00:26.

of the economics and some I hope it all helps contribute

:00:27.:00:29.

to your decision on the big vote. Our next referendum special

:00:30.:00:34.

is on Monday, and before that, I'll be back in

:00:35.:00:36.

the studio tomorrow. Thank you to everybody here for

:00:37.:00:40.

hosting us. At the weekend, most others will be

:00:41.:01:24.

dry, if rather cool. We

:01:25.:01:25.

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