12/05/2016 Newsnight

This combination of influences on demand supply and the exchange

rate, could lead to a materially lower path for growth and a notably

Another day, another warning of the risks of Brexit.

The Governor of the Bank of England had his say today.

For the Leave campaign, a former chancellor will have his say.

We've been bringing you the future since 1922...

Is our content distinctive enough for you?

We'll debate whether the Government's plans

for the BBC have gone too far - or not far enough.

And are the workers in this Preston chocolate factory delighted

Well, to be honest, I think he gave too much.

Because then they all start coming over and the NHS...

The Governor of the Bank of England has issued a stark warning that

voting to leave the European Union could damage the British economy

and possibly trigger a technical recession.

Only last month, Mark Carney insisted, perhaps somewhat

optimistically, that "assessing and reporting risks does not mean

becoming involved in politics", but tonight his unprecedented

intervention has placed him at the centre of

Leave campaigners have accused him of inviting

speculators to short the pound, while one Conservative

backbencher has called for his immediate resignation.

In a moment Lord Lamont will give his response. First, we can set the

scene with Adam. What exactly has Mark Carney said? This revolves

around the release of two documents today. One is the regular inflation

report, the other is the minutes of the monetary policy committee. If

anyone is not an expert on these things, that's fine, these are

normally technical, serious, economic documents. They do not

normally set your heart flutter. However, what Mark Carney did today

was weighed first foot deeply forward into the Brexit debate.

Making some very clear points. -- wade. The much unprecedented. It

starts at the front of this document saying the most significant risks

concern the referendum. And it continues to make that point, saying

we had financial stability risks around Stirling, unemployment,

inflation, investment, it is quite a long shopping list. -- sterling.

Appearing to cover many bases. The most recent weakness reflects

in part the forthcoming referendum, on the UK's membership

of the European Union, which has pushed up uncertainty

measures to levels not seen More profoundly, a vote to leave

the European Union could have material economic effects

on the exchange rate, on demand The facts that could affect

the appropriate setting He went on to say that in the event

of a British exit, and he thought one of the possibilities was a

technical recession. That would be six months of contraction in the

economy. That is a technical expression. But that single word,

recession is bound to cause a very significant political response.

Especially because of who has uttered it. We have heard it from

the world and its wife about what the economic impact might be. The

words of President it is getting thrown around. But for the governor

of the bank of England to do it this time, how significant is that? Very.

This debate is framed a lot around economic reports. We have had a

blizzard of them recently. The Bank of England is different. It is our

central bank. It is independent and political. Doesn't have shareholders

to think about. It's specific remit is to analyse the UK economy, and

that is what the governor says he is doing. -- its. He said it would be

more political not to release this. Is the economic side of this done

and dusted, the debate? We have had a series of reports. This one will

get a lot of publicity. We have had the OECD, the ISS, the Treasury's

report, and plenty of others. -- IFS. They have all body said the

same thing. The IMF will speak tomorrow. It is expected to say

similar things. It raises one question, if the economic argument

has been decided, and I am sure you will hear the other side of that, is

there going to be pressure on the league campaign to look for other

areas in which to expand its argument. -- Leave campaign. Lord

Lamont will give his view. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer who is

currently voting for Leave. He was regarded as an astonishing coup for

George Osborne when he was appointed. Arguably the most

successful central bank in the world at the time. Are we lucky to have

his insights? He came here with a very high reputation, having been a

successful governor of the bank of Canada. I think he is in danger of

getting too involved in politics. What most afraid about his that --

is that he is in danger of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. He ought

to be careful with his words, because when the governor says

things it has a great effect. There is no reason why there should be a

downturn, or a recession, if Britain votes to leave. There might be a

degree of uncertainty. There is no reason for dramatic contraction to

take place. Let me finish... For the governor to say this is in danger of

creating a crisis where a crisis is completely avoidable and completely

unnecessary. It would have been far easier and far more, I think,

judicious for him to suit the have said, we are prepared for all

contingencies. All eventualities. You are not saying his analysis is

wrong, you are saying you should not have said anything? I think it is

quite likely to be wrong. I'm not saying it is right. All nine members

agree. The monetary policy committee and the governor in August 2013 told

the world that when unemployment reached 7% interest rates would

rise. Unemployed and it is now 5%. Interest rates have still not risen.

I need to be clear, you are not suggesting Mark Carney is in anyway

misleading, or trying to deceive the British public? This is a

unanimously agreed analysis of what an exit would entail. If you read

what they said, it is full of the word "Could". I think it was

unnecessary to use the word recession. I don't believe anybody

could forecast that there would be a recession after... Recessions are

rarely seen by any forecaster. I cannot recall any recession that has

been foreseen by forecasters. Really, this was alarmist. What I

think is happening, alas, and I think it is demeaning, is that all

of these great institutions, the Treasury, the Bank of England, the

OECD, the IMF, have become highly politicised. There is a close

interaction between the civil servants and all of them into

changing, working together, and, you know, that is a consensus. You have

used the word politicised to use economic analysis which does not fit

with your own on this issue. The Bank of England is much more

independent today than when you were Chancellor, and more than it has

been since its inception. To accuse all of the committee to be motivated

by anything other than sincerity, true, objectivity is a little bit,

well, that is perhaps... I don't agree. I think it was unnecessary to

talk. There is no justification for talking about a recession. Nobody

can foresee a recession. There is the reason why. There are risks, of

course, but there are risks both ways. To say that the risks are all

one way is a distortion. Of course, but it is the Bank of England's job

to look at these issues, to analyse them effectively, and then, in your

view, to stay silent. If there was any intent to persuade a political

narrative to shift one way or another, if there was any interest

vested by them, they would keep quiet. If you take something like

the exchange rate. And we were told in chilling terms there might be a

fall in the exchange rate. Not so long ago we were being told that the

exchange rate, which actually is at the same level when the referendum

was announced, we were told it would fall through. The exchange rate is

actually... It has been much lower during the lifetime of this

government than the previous Coalition Government. It is nothing

very alarming. They cannot say for sure what will happen to the

exchange rate. But they can provide guidance. It is not just the

exchange rate, housing prices will crash, family income will be

affected, economic growth which is already contracting would collapse

further. I want to be clear about this, Lord Lamont, obviously no

forecaster is infallible. Are you saying that he think the governor of

the Bank of England and all nine members of the monetary policy

committee are wrong, or somehow biased, or something else? I think

the NPC are entitled to highlight potential risks. Possibilities. --

MPC. But the language used afterwards in the press conference

was too certain, emphatic, and two in accordance with the government's

view. -- too in accordance. Thanks very much indeed.

Earlier today I spoke to the French Finance Minister, Michel Sapin.

He was in town for the anti-corruption summit

so effectively brought to our attention by David Cameron's

fantastically indiscreet descriptions of Nigeria

and Afghanistan, but I began by asking him about the referendum

and whether he sympathised with Mark Carney's intervention.

As Finance Minister of France, can you envision a future

in which we would be able to trade freely, the British would be able

to trade freely with you, but the freedom of movement

between our two countries would be curtailed?

Every voter in Britain is imagining hypotheses at the moment, Minister.

but would you, as Finance Minister, envision an entente

How has this debate, whatever its outcome proves to be,

how has it impacted on domestic French politics?

the risk of war in Europe, is that to your mind

The Government today unveiled a major overhaul

Inevitably, some commentators opined that there wasn't enough actual

overhauling on the way, while others insisted that there

Our job, as ever, is to consider thesis and antithesis in the hope

of securing some sort of synthesis, and we'll start doing that

In the very first instance, though, viewers need to know that they'll

have to pay the licence fee for at least the next eleven years,

and programme-makers need to start wrestling

with the Culture Secretary John Whittingdale's demand for more

Newsnight's political editor, Nicholas Watt, has been delving

They feared the worst. It turns out that Tess an Claudia can relax.

Strictly keeps its #3r50i78 Saturday evening slot, the BBC license fee is

safe for the next decade and the Royal Charter underpinning the

corporation will last a full 11 years, though there is a review

after five. I think that John Whittingdale's fox

has been shot by his own side. Simply because he has had to reign

in all of those terrible things he wanted to do to the BBC.

But there are concerns over the creation of a new supervisory board.

Labour and the BBC believe the Government wants to give itself too

great a role in appointing members. We have an executive board that does

all the editorial, sort of ultimate responsibility at the BBC. There are

no Government appointments on that, there never have been. We are

creating a unitary board and we accept that there could be a role

for the chairman and vice-chairman, being selected through a public

appointment process, we would like to discuss safeguards on that to

reflect the BBC's independence, but I think for the rest of the

non-execs our starting point they should be a appointed by the

chairman, chairing the nominations committee in the same way a plc

would. The main concern I have left, is the proposals that he had for

appointing the new unity broad, and I think there are a lot of concerns

still about those. The White Paper also says that the board has control

of editorial direction, it is going to be looking at output after the

event. We all know the chilling effect that that can have on

creative people, if you get told off for what you did afterwards.

But the Government believes that it is right to keep a close eye on an

organisation that is funded by the public, to the tune of ?4 billion.

They have huge power and authority, and that without accountability is

unhealthy. You have to remember that all of the trusts are appointed by

the BBC and formally the Governor os of the BBC were appointed by the

Government. What is the difference really? Today's squabbles will be

resolved, no doubt guaranteeing another generation of blockbuster

BBC dramas. The big dilemma in the future will

revolve round a question that is left unanswered in the White Paper.

Does it put the BBC on a sustainable footing for the decades ahead? Or

has the Government set in motion a mechanism to gnaw away at the BBC's

funding and structures in the digital age? The license fee is hot

safe because the technological changes that will Dominic Grieve the

demands of the consumer will make the license fee irrelevant.

-- that will drive. Supporters of the BBC believe that all roads

eventually lead to the license fee. I think there will always be a tight

leash on the BBC, a tight leash on the finances of the BBC, and if the

Secretary of State could find an alternative, to the license fee,

believe you me he would have found it. The fact he hasn't is because

the public can't see an alternative, and none of the commercial companies

that compete with the BBC want to compete with them on revenue. None.

The BBC will be safe as it moves towards its sentry over the next

decade. But the Government has definitelied a clear message. One of

the biggest public broadcasters cannot be immune from the digital

revolution that is shredding media organisations across the globe.

Not release because you have spot add way that our two main stories

can be knitted together. The referendum campaign, and the

possibility of a new look BBC. This happened when John Whittingdale the

churl secretary, one of the Cabinet ministers campaigning for a Brexit

told ITV news said he has sympathy with the unease about ITV's decision

to invite Nigel Farage who is not part of the formal vote leave

campaign to take part in one of the referendum debates. Now, what the

Labour Party are saying, is this goes to the heart of their concerns

about the Government's role in appointing members of the new

unitary board. And they are saying well jonth Whittingdale may have

said he was speaking in a personal capacity, but he has a form of quasi

judicial role and maybe in future if you have heavy Government

involvement maybe you could have a cabinet minister saying I am

speaking in a personal capacity but they carry weight. The Government

had made clear today it would have liked to appoint some members of the

unitary board but they say the BBC has the right to appoint the

majority of its members. Waheed Alli, Lord Alli,

is a media entrepreneur and Labour life peer,

and journalist Stephen Glover is a columnist for the Daily Mail

newspaper, they join me now. We will start with you, which

expected fireworks have we seen many If you asked the BBC a year ago when

John Whittingdale what they expected there was fear and panic, because he

was billed as a ferocious Thatcherite and what he has produced

today, is, with one or two exception, is more of the same, the

BBC has its future secured for the next 11 year, it is going to have a

real increase in license fee for the next FIA year, so I think Lord Hall

the Director-General will be happy this evening. Why would

the Director-General will be happy the ferocity of Thatcherism with a

desire to wouldn't that is what they thought.

They thought that the Whittingdale was a ferocious Thatcherite and

fact, many people who know him, I don't know him he has a reputation

for being a cautious person and he was never going to take on the BBC.

Behind him, he has a government which doesn't want to fight with the

BBC, a few weeks before the referendum. There has been little

cautious about your criticism of the BBC over... I wouldn't say that at

all. I am balanced and reasonable. That is why you are here. Were you

pleased with what came out. There is some good things. I have, I would

like to see more evidence that the BBC is going to curtail its

like to see more evidence that the which has done a lot to destroy the

or undermine the website of newspapers, which are in, you know

have big financial problems at the moment, many of them. I I would like

have big financial problems at the to have well, I mean, on that point,

it should be said it's a good thing that that the BBC has been

it should be said it's a good thing give a few million pounds of scraps

to local newspapers, 150 journalist, because the effect of

to local newspapers, 150 journalist, website, on local newspapers, has

made worse, has accelerated the decline. These aren't the headline

issues, the notion of making less popular problems, that must trouble

you. I doubt, this is sort popular problems, that must trouble

are just exhortations, aren't they. We will see. Lord Alli, I presume

you perhaps are a bit We will see. Lord Alli, I presume

than Steven Glover We will see. Lord Alli, I presume

the fireworks. Not really I think the Secretary of

the fireworks. Not really I think from an overt attack on the BBC to a

the fireworks. Not really I think detail. So if you

the fireworks. Not really I think Paper, there are ticking time bombs

in there, that he has set to explode over the coming months

in there, that he has set to explode independence, we have touched on the

appointment of the directors to the board. That needs to be an

independent process, it is an board. That needs to be an

Government has to give up appointing like a state controlled

Government has to give up appointing who is on the board of the BBC. If

you look at the license fee, they guaranteed it but in five years'

time there is to be a health check and they have taken some of that

money, and they have given it to commercial broadcasters, these are

commercial broadcasters that are doing very well, without taking

license fees, payer's money to make programmes. And the third and

probably the most distressing point, is this notion of distinctive

programming, it is a Trojan horse, it is put in there to say to the

BBC, you need to make distinctive programming, curtail making popular

programming, and make distinctive programming. This is to clarify the

notion it should be programmes that nobody else would make and the

reason they wouldn't is because known wants to watch them. Therefore

what happens is the ratings fail in the -- fall in the beak, the

Government can say, oh, you are not serving your audience, therefore we

want to take more of the license fee away from you. It's a sophisticated

plan. Of course it is. They always are. When you can't win your

argument, by standing up and making it in public, you hide behind the

detail. And that is what the Secretary of State has done and we

have to in Parliament protect the license fee payer, and do what the

public want. You know, every time we look like we are enjoying ourself,

every time we have popular programme, there is always a

politician passing by, that wants to take them away from us. Or a

journalist, even. Are you comfortable with the BBC making

popular and populist programmes? Well, it makes a lot of them, but it

seems to me the BBC, but it seems to me, there is no point point of the

BBC unless it does some things that the market doesn't do. That I think

is the point of what you were talking about. There are some things

like documentaries or religious programmes or children's programmes

which the BBC, it does, tries to make us laugh. There is a huge

amount of output. All one is saying that the BBC needs to attend to

those prosecution, which the market doesn't produce, otherwise what is

the point of BBC? Briefly cast your mind back a decade or three, did you

sit there feeling a sense of resentment as you were chuckling way

to more come and wise or Porridge. If they only made programme like

that now. You can't make... The argument is not that the BBC

shouldn't produce popular programme, it is it should do things with the

market may not do. May not produce. If it doesn't do that what is the

point of the BBC? Should it can make the Bake Off Of course. Our scones

are safe. Gentlemen, many thanks to both of you.

You don't need a degree in psephology to realise that,

as things stand, the EU referendum will be decided by the votes

Research shows that women are more likely than men to fall

Men, apparently, are more likely to lie about having already arrived

And many observers believe that the old Labour

heartlands could hold the key to victory for either side.

Accordingly, in the latest of Newsnight's Referendum Road

series, Katie Razzall headed to Preston.

I want England to be as great as it used to be.

I don't like to be told by somebody sat in Belgium what I should do.

She is taking her shoes off - I love it!

In her prime, June Gregson was goingly for the most successful

women's football team of the 20th century.

In fact, he burned my football boots.

He picked them up and threw them on the fire.

June's team, the Dick Kerr Ladies were famous.

Named after the Preston munitions factory where they worked,

from the off in 1917, her predecessors attracted

But when a staggering 53,000 turned out at Everton's Goodison Park

in 1920, the largest crowd that had ever been recorded

in the Football League, male or female, the fate

The FA banned them from playing in their stadiums.

Clever young goalie June played for the team in the 1950s,

Instead of accepting the mill or shop job that was her lot,

she took work in Greece and France - but that doesn't

I think this country is big enough, strong enough,

and it's certainly got the, oh, what do they say,

Let's do it while we have the chance to do it now.

And are lots of people, you know, saying

There's not many people that I have spoken to,

or speak to, is wanting to stay in it.

They're sick of the interference in their ordinary lives.

June's home town Preston may have changed over the years,

but its political affiliations have stayed solidly Labour.

That party is officially backing the Remain cause but what of its

traditional support base in places like this?

Many here seem to hark back to a time before we joined.

Beech's Chocolate has been on this site since 1920.

Despite losing contracts to factories in eastern Europe,

where labour is cheaper, they are going for glory

I clocked in and joined the shift.

I'll pick it up and take it to the bin for you.

So you know, it's quite appropriate we are doing Turkish Delight,

To be honest, I think it's too much.

Because then they will start coming over and using the NHS

Here they sit happily alongside Polish workers,

but they are still concerned about the pressures on services

caused by freedom of movement within the EU.

I had to go to the dentists yesterday, because mine was closed,

I hope not too much chocolate?

When I went there, there was a lady saying "Are you paying

After me, there was eight people come in, none of them paid,

You are saying the eight people who came in on benefits,

I just think it is because of, with the National Health Service

being stretched to the maximum, and the border controls more

than anything, because I think with that being stretched,

and more people coming in, it's going to be stretched even

further, and I think the borders need to be controlled more.

Anybody is coming in and you don't know where they are going.

We do rely on people coming to work for us, different nationalities

and things like that, because if we didn't have these

people, we wouldn't be able to do our jobs,

we wouldn't be able to get the orders out.

I am concerned how many people we are letting in the country.

A quarter of semi and unskilled workers recently polled said

Some analysts predict the undecided are more likely to vote to stay,

but here, everyone I spoke to told me they hadn't made

up their minds, before saying in fact life would be

How many stars are there on the EU flag?

Across town, Newsnight hijacked a pub with a few EU

What is the date of the EU referendum?

Meet the Pink Ladies, a networking group for

Lancashire business women - their very own northern powerhouse.

Are people talking about the referendum?

I talk to customers, they will discuss it with us.

You know, and there is so many for and against, but most people

are kind of sat on the fence with it, because -

but they are more wavering towards the better the devil you

What is the name of agreement signed by the EU states, but not the UK,

which led to the abolition of border checks between those countries?

Just as plenty across our country don't know how they are going

More women than men say they are undecided.

I want to know whether it is going to be right or wrong.

I want to know whether we are going to stay the same.

Yes, Europe make decisions for us, but they are not all bad.

Nobody can tell us what is going to happen afterwards,

so all that is happening at the moment, everybody is telling

us if we leave it will be negative and it will be terrible.

And if we stay, then it is positive, but nobody knows, the truth

about what is going to happen should we leave.

I think that is why everybody is very undecided -

they don't really know, because nobody told us

I employ a Latvian seamstress, who is wonderful.

She is here because of the freedom of movement.

There is a shortage of nurses, doctors and those kind of services,

and there are jobs there to be filled, but we need that type

of person coming in, whereas at the moment, anyone can.

Whereas if we had control of our own borders, we could choose

June will be a big month for Britain in Europe,

the referendum of course, and also football's

And it seems our June hasn't quite hung up her boots.

Who would you like to take on from the Premier

Who do you reckon you would have a good go at?

I doubt it very much, but I would have a damn good try!

And so to speak to the Oxford union tomorrow and worn that... Update

your pardon, to warn the Conservative campaigners are

beginning to seem like Europe. -- John Major is going to speak to. The

decision about which way to vote can be influenced by all sorts of

factors. Many people have said they speak

for business in this debate. But as for the entrepreneurs

themselves, their decision about which way to vote can be

defined by all sorts of factors. So we asked John Timpson,

boss of the eponymous key cutting, engraving and "so much more"

business to tell us about how he's making his decision about Britain's

future membership of the EU. I think that someone

who is a process-driven, box-ticking, careful sort of guy,

or girl, is going to vote for in, because they are worried

about the uncertainty. If someone is more like me,

a bit of a maverick, who likes the idea of there

being more opportunities, I'll be voting to come out,

but I sent an e-mail to my three teenage grandchildren,

and asked them the question. I think actually they don't

know anything else. They were born in Europe

and they have lived I'm starting to now

wonder whether perhaps But I don't think that,

I think it's typical of somebody who has my experience or remember

what it was like when I've met plenty of people who have

been to Brussels, who actually are worried about the whole

bureaucracy that's being set up Do I find anything about the In

argument persuasive? Certainly it does give you a very

strong, almost guarantee of peace. No conflict between us

and any other part of Europe. And that has got to be -

that was really the attraction of the Common Market community

in the first place. But it comes at a hell

of a price, in giving What I think we should

be looking at is not the next four months,

or even four years, but ten years ahead,

where we have an opportunity to really do much more

off our own bat, and show what we in the UK can do,

without being tied down The Guardian has John Major warning

Brexit Tories they risk morphing into Ukip if they focus too heavily

on immigration. The Daily Mail goes after Cameron for ducking a TV

debate with the same Brexit Tories. China planning a secret takeover of

the nuclear power station in the Times. And the FT picks up the story

we covered earlier, Mark Carney's warning to the UK if we quit the

European Union. Some might not have been paying too much attention to

the contemporary art world, but the Turner prize nominations are out.

There are three candidates on the list. Here is a taste of their work.

Good night. The heat of the day triggered some

lively showers in southern counties. Rumbles of thunder.

lively showers in southern counties. overnight. Then we pick up this

northerly