12/05/2016 Newsnight


James O'Brien on Vote Leave's response to Mark Carney's Brexit warning and the future of the BBC. Plus what does Preston - and John Timpson - think of Brexit?

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This combination of influences on demand supply and the exchange


rate, could lead to a materially lower path for growth and a notably


Another day, another warning of the risks of Brexit.


The Governor of the Bank of England had his say today.


For the Leave campaign, a former chancellor will have his say.


We've been bringing you the future since 1922...


Is our content distinctive enough for you?


We'll debate whether the Government's plans


for the BBC have gone too far - or not far enough.


And are the workers in this Preston chocolate factory delighted


Well, to be honest, I think he gave too much.


Because then they all start coming over and the NHS...


The Governor of the Bank of England has issued a stark warning that


voting to leave the European Union could damage the British economy


and possibly trigger a technical recession.


Only last month, Mark Carney insisted, perhaps somewhat


optimistically, that "assessing and reporting risks does not mean


becoming involved in politics", but tonight his unprecedented


intervention has placed him at the centre of


Leave campaigners have accused him of inviting


speculators to short the pound, while one Conservative


backbencher has called for his immediate resignation.


In a moment Lord Lamont will give his response. First, we can set the


scene with Adam. What exactly has Mark Carney said? This revolves


around the release of two documents today. One is the regular inflation


report, the other is the minutes of the monetary policy committee. If


anyone is not an expert on these things, that's fine, these are


normally technical, serious, economic documents. They do not


normally set your heart flutter. However, what Mark Carney did today


was weighed first foot deeply forward into the Brexit debate.


Making some very clear points. -- wade. The much unprecedented. It


starts at the front of this document saying the most significant risks


concern the referendum. And it continues to make that point, saying


we had financial stability risks around Stirling, unemployment,


inflation, investment, it is quite a long shopping list. -- sterling.


Appearing to cover many bases. The most recent weakness reflects


in part the forthcoming referendum, on the UK's membership


of the European Union, which has pushed up uncertainty


measures to levels not seen More profoundly, a vote to leave


the European Union could have material economic effects


on the exchange rate, on demand The facts that could affect


the appropriate setting He went on to say that in the event


of a British exit, and he thought one of the possibilities was a


technical recession. That would be six months of contraction in the


economy. That is a technical expression. But that single word,


recession is bound to cause a very significant political response.


Especially because of who has uttered it. We have heard it from


the world and its wife about what the economic impact might be. The


words of President it is getting thrown around. But for the governor


of the bank of England to do it this time, how significant is that? Very.


This debate is framed a lot around economic reports. We have had a


blizzard of them recently. The Bank of England is different. It is our


central bank. It is independent and political. Doesn't have shareholders


to think about. It's specific remit is to analyse the UK economy, and


that is what the governor says he is doing. -- its. He said it would be


more political not to release this. Is the economic side of this done


and dusted, the debate? We have had a series of reports. This one will


get a lot of publicity. We have had the OECD, the ISS, the Treasury's


report, and plenty of others. -- IFS. They have all body said the


same thing. The IMF will speak tomorrow. It is expected to say


similar things. It raises one question, if the economic argument


has been decided, and I am sure you will hear the other side of that, is


there going to be pressure on the league campaign to look for other


areas in which to expand its argument. -- Leave campaign. Lord


Lamont will give his view. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer who is


currently voting for Leave. He was regarded as an astonishing coup for


George Osborne when he was appointed. Arguably the most


successful central bank in the world at the time. Are we lucky to have


his insights? He came here with a very high reputation, having been a


successful governor of the bank of Canada. I think he is in danger of


getting too involved in politics. What most afraid about his that --


is that he is in danger of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. He ought


to be careful with his words, because when the governor says


things it has a great effect. There is no reason why there should be a


downturn, or a recession, if Britain votes to leave. There might be a


degree of uncertainty. There is no reason for dramatic contraction to


take place. Let me finish... For the governor to say this is in danger of


creating a crisis where a crisis is completely avoidable and completely


unnecessary. It would have been far easier and far more, I think,


judicious for him to suit the have said, we are prepared for all


contingencies. All eventualities. You are not saying his analysis is


wrong, you are saying you should not have said anything? I think it is


quite likely to be wrong. I'm not saying it is right. All nine members


agree. The monetary policy committee and the governor in August 2013 told


the world that when unemployment reached 7% interest rates would


rise. Unemployed and it is now 5%. Interest rates have still not risen.


I need to be clear, you are not suggesting Mark Carney is in anyway


misleading, or trying to deceive the British public? This is a


unanimously agreed analysis of what an exit would entail. If you read


what they said, it is full of the word "Could". I think it was


unnecessary to use the word recession. I don't believe anybody


could forecast that there would be a recession after... Recessions are


rarely seen by any forecaster. I cannot recall any recession that has


been foreseen by forecasters. Really, this was alarmist. What I


think is happening, alas, and I think it is demeaning, is that all


of these great institutions, the Treasury, the Bank of England, the


OECD, the IMF, have become highly politicised. There is a close


interaction between the civil servants and all of them into


changing, working together, and, you know, that is a consensus. You have


used the word politicised to use economic analysis which does not fit


with your own on this issue. The Bank of England is much more


independent today than when you were Chancellor, and more than it has


been since its inception. To accuse all of the committee to be motivated


by anything other than sincerity, true, objectivity is a little bit,


well, that is perhaps... I don't agree. I think it was unnecessary to


talk. There is no justification for talking about a recession. Nobody


can foresee a recession. There is the reason why. There are risks, of


course, but there are risks both ways. To say that the risks are all


one way is a distortion. Of course, but it is the Bank of England's job


to look at these issues, to analyse them effectively, and then, in your


view, to stay silent. If there was any intent to persuade a political


narrative to shift one way or another, if there was any interest


vested by them, they would keep quiet. If you take something like


the exchange rate. And we were told in chilling terms there might be a


fall in the exchange rate. Not so long ago we were being told that the


exchange rate, which actually is at the same level when the referendum


was announced, we were told it would fall through. The exchange rate is


actually... It has been much lower during the lifetime of this


government than the previous Coalition Government. It is nothing


very alarming. They cannot say for sure what will happen to the


exchange rate. But they can provide guidance. It is not just the


exchange rate, housing prices will crash, family income will be


affected, economic growth which is already contracting would collapse


further. I want to be clear about this, Lord Lamont, obviously no


forecaster is infallible. Are you saying that he think the governor of


the Bank of England and all nine members of the monetary policy


committee are wrong, or somehow biased, or something else? I think


the NPC are entitled to highlight potential risks. Possibilities. --


MPC. But the language used afterwards in the press conference


was too certain, emphatic, and two in accordance with the government's


view. -- too in accordance. Thanks very much indeed.


Earlier today I spoke to the French Finance Minister, Michel Sapin.


He was in town for the anti-corruption summit


so effectively brought to our attention by David Cameron's


fantastically indiscreet descriptions of Nigeria


and Afghanistan, but I began by asking him about the referendum


and whether he sympathised with Mark Carney's intervention.


As Finance Minister of France, can you envision a future


in which we would be able to trade freely, the British would be able


to trade freely with you, but the freedom of movement


between our two countries would be curtailed?


Every voter in Britain is imagining hypotheses at the moment, Minister.


but would you, as Finance Minister, envision an entente


How has this debate, whatever its outcome proves to be,


how has it impacted on domestic French politics?


the risk of war in Europe, is that to your mind


The Government today unveiled a major overhaul


Inevitably, some commentators opined that there wasn't enough actual


overhauling on the way, while others insisted that there


Our job, as ever, is to consider thesis and antithesis in the hope


of securing some sort of synthesis, and we'll start doing that


In the very first instance, though, viewers need to know that they'll


have to pay the licence fee for at least the next eleven years,


and programme-makers need to start wrestling


with the Culture Secretary John Whittingdale's demand for more


Newsnight's political editor, Nicholas Watt, has been delving


They feared the worst. It turns out that Tess an Claudia can relax.


Strictly keeps its #3r50i78 Saturday evening slot, the BBC license fee is


safe for the next decade and the Royal Charter underpinning the


corporation will last a full 11 years, though there is a review


after five. I think that John Whittingdale's fox


has been shot by his own side. Simply because he has had to reign


in all of those terrible things he wanted to do to the BBC.


But there are concerns over the creation of a new supervisory board.


Labour and the BBC believe the Government wants to give itself too


great a role in appointing members. We have an executive board that does


all the editorial, sort of ultimate responsibility at the BBC. There are


no Government appointments on that, there never have been. We are


creating a unitary board and we accept that there could be a role


for the chairman and vice-chairman, being selected through a public


appointment process, we would like to discuss safeguards on that to


reflect the BBC's independence, but I think for the rest of the


non-execs our starting point they should be a appointed by the


chairman, chairing the nominations committee in the same way a plc


would. The main concern I have left, is the proposals that he had for


appointing the new unity broad, and I think there are a lot of concerns


still about those. The White Paper also says that the board has control


of editorial direction, it is going to be looking at output after the


event. We all know the chilling effect that that can have on


creative people, if you get told off for what you did afterwards.


But the Government believes that it is right to keep a close eye on an


organisation that is funded by the public, to the tune of ?4 billion.


They have huge power and authority, and that without accountability is


unhealthy. You have to remember that all of the trusts are appointed by


the BBC and formally the Governor os of the BBC were appointed by the


Government. What is the difference really? Today's squabbles will be


resolved, no doubt guaranteeing another generation of blockbuster


BBC dramas. The big dilemma in the future will


revolve round a question that is left unanswered in the White Paper.


Does it put the BBC on a sustainable footing for the decades ahead? Or


has the Government set in motion a mechanism to gnaw away at the BBC's


funding and structures in the digital age? The license fee is hot


safe because the technological changes that will Dominic Grieve the


demands of the consumer will make the license fee irrelevant.


-- that will drive. Supporters of the BBC believe that all roads


eventually lead to the license fee. I think there will always be a tight


leash on the BBC, a tight leash on the finances of the BBC, and if the


Secretary of State could find an alternative, to the license fee,


believe you me he would have found it. The fact he hasn't is because


the public can't see an alternative, and none of the commercial companies


that compete with the BBC want to compete with them on revenue. None.


The BBC will be safe as it moves towards its sentry over the next


decade. But the Government has definitelied a clear message. One of


the biggest public broadcasters cannot be immune from the digital


revolution that is shredding media organisations across the globe.


Not release because you have spot add way that our two main stories


can be knitted together. The referendum campaign, and the


possibility of a new look BBC. This happened when John Whittingdale the


churl secretary, one of the Cabinet ministers campaigning for a Brexit


told ITV news said he has sympathy with the unease about ITV's decision


to invite Nigel Farage who is not part of the formal vote leave


campaign to take part in one of the referendum debates. Now, what the


Labour Party are saying, is this goes to the heart of their concerns


about the Government's role in appointing members of the new


unitary board. And they are saying well jonth Whittingdale may have


said he was speaking in a personal capacity, but he has a form of quasi


judicial role and maybe in future if you have heavy Government


involvement maybe you could have a cabinet minister saying I am


speaking in a personal capacity but they carry weight. The Government


had made clear today it would have liked to appoint some members of the


unitary board but they say the BBC has the right to appoint the


majority of its members. Waheed Alli, Lord Alli,


is a media entrepreneur and Labour life peer,


and journalist Stephen Glover is a columnist for the Daily Mail


newspaper, they join me now. We will start with you, which


expected fireworks have we seen many If you asked the BBC a year ago when


John Whittingdale what they expected there was fear and panic, because he


was billed as a ferocious Thatcherite and what he has produced


today, is, with one or two exception, is more of the same, the


BBC has its future secured for the next 11 year, it is going to have a


real increase in license fee for the next FIA year, so I think Lord Hall


the Director-General will be happy this evening. Why would


the Director-General will be happy the ferocity of Thatcherism with a


desire to wouldn't that is what they thought.


They thought that the Whittingdale was a ferocious Thatcherite and


fact, many people who know him, I don't know him he has a reputation


for being a cautious person and he was never going to take on the BBC.


Behind him, he has a government which doesn't want to fight with the


BBC, a few weeks before the referendum. There has been little


cautious about your criticism of the BBC over... I wouldn't say that at


all. I am balanced and reasonable. That is why you are here. Were you


pleased with what came out. There is some good things. I have, I would


like to see more evidence that the BBC is going to curtail its


like to see more evidence that the which has done a lot to destroy the


or undermine the website of newspapers, which are in, you know


have big financial problems at the moment, many of them. I I would like


have big financial problems at the to have well, I mean, on that point,


it should be said it's a good thing that that the BBC has been


it should be said it's a good thing give a few million pounds of scraps


to local newspapers, 150 journalist, because the effect of


to local newspapers, 150 journalist, website, on local newspapers, has


made worse, has accelerated the decline. These aren't the headline


issues, the notion of making less popular problems, that must trouble


you. I doubt, this is sort popular problems, that must trouble


are just exhortations, aren't they. We will see. Lord Alli, I presume


you perhaps are a bit We will see. Lord Alli, I presume


than Steven Glover We will see. Lord Alli, I presume


the fireworks. Not really I think the Secretary of


the fireworks. Not really I think from an overt attack on the BBC to a


the fireworks. Not really I think detail. So if you


the fireworks. Not really I think Paper, there are ticking time bombs


in there, that he has set to explode over the coming months


in there, that he has set to explode independence, we have touched on the


appointment of the directors to the board. That needs to be an


independent process, it is an board. That needs to be an


Government has to give up appointing like a state controlled


Government has to give up appointing who is on the board of the BBC. If


you look at the license fee, they guaranteed it but in five years'


time there is to be a health check and they have taken some of that


money, and they have given it to commercial broadcasters, these are


commercial broadcasters that are doing very well, without taking


license fees, payer's money to make programmes. And the third and


probably the most distressing point, is this notion of distinctive


programming, it is a Trojan horse, it is put in there to say to the


BBC, you need to make distinctive programming, curtail making popular


programming, and make distinctive programming. This is to clarify the


notion it should be programmes that nobody else would make and the


reason they wouldn't is because known wants to watch them. Therefore


what happens is the ratings fail in the -- fall in the beak, the


Government can say, oh, you are not serving your audience, therefore we


want to take more of the license fee away from you. It's a sophisticated


plan. Of course it is. They always are. When you can't win your


argument, by standing up and making it in public, you hide behind the


detail. And that is what the Secretary of State has done and we


have to in Parliament protect the license fee payer, and do what the


public want. You know, every time we look like we are enjoying ourself,


every time we have popular programme, there is always a


politician passing by, that wants to take them away from us. Or a


journalist, even. Are you comfortable with the BBC making


popular and populist programmes? Well, it makes a lot of them, but it


seems to me the BBC, but it seems to me, there is no point point of the


BBC unless it does some things that the market doesn't do. That I think


is the point of what you were talking about. There are some things


like documentaries or religious programmes or children's programmes


which the BBC, it does, tries to make us laugh. There is a huge


amount of output. All one is saying that the BBC needs to attend to


those prosecution, which the market doesn't produce, otherwise what is


the point of BBC? Briefly cast your mind back a decade or three, did you


sit there feeling a sense of resentment as you were chuckling way


to more come and wise or Porridge. If they only made programme like


that now. You can't make... The argument is not that the BBC


shouldn't produce popular programme, it is it should do things with the


market may not do. May not produce. If it doesn't do that what is the


point of the BBC? Should it can make the Bake Off Of course. Our scones


are safe. Gentlemen, many thanks to both of you.


You don't need a degree in psephology to realise that,


as things stand, the EU referendum will be decided by the votes


Research shows that women are more likely than men to fall


Men, apparently, are more likely to lie about having already arrived


And many observers believe that the old Labour


heartlands could hold the key to victory for either side.


Accordingly, in the latest of Newsnight's Referendum Road


series, Katie Razzall headed to Preston.


I want England to be as great as it used to be.


I don't like to be told by somebody sat in Belgium what I should do.


She is taking her shoes off - I love it!


In her prime, June Gregson was goingly for the most successful


women's football team of the 20th century.


In fact, he burned my football boots.


He picked them up and threw them on the fire.


June's team, the Dick Kerr Ladies were famous.


Named after the Preston munitions factory where they worked,


from the off in 1917, her predecessors attracted


But when a staggering 53,000 turned out at Everton's Goodison Park


in 1920, the largest crowd that had ever been recorded


in the Football League, male or female, the fate


The FA banned them from playing in their stadiums.


Clever young goalie June played for the team in the 1950s,


Instead of accepting the mill or shop job that was her lot,


she took work in Greece and France - but that doesn't


I think this country is big enough, strong enough,


and it's certainly got the, oh, what do they say,


Let's do it while we have the chance to do it now.


And are lots of people, you know, saying


There's not many people that I have spoken to,


or speak to, is wanting to stay in it.


They're sick of the interference in their ordinary lives.


June's home town Preston may have changed over the years,


but its political affiliations have stayed solidly Labour.


That party is officially backing the Remain cause but what of its


traditional support base in places like this?


Many here seem to hark back to a time before we joined.


Beech's Chocolate has been on this site since 1920.


Despite losing contracts to factories in eastern Europe,


where labour is cheaper, they are going for glory


I clocked in and joined the shift.


I'll pick it up and take it to the bin for you.


So you know, it's quite appropriate we are doing Turkish Delight,


To be honest, I think it's too much.


Because then they will start coming over and using the NHS


Here they sit happily alongside Polish workers,


but they are still concerned about the pressures on services


caused by freedom of movement within the EU.


I had to go to the dentists yesterday, because mine was closed,


I hope not too much chocolate?


When I went there, there was a lady saying "Are you paying


After me, there was eight people come in, none of them paid,


You are saying the eight people who came in on benefits,


I just think it is because of, with the National Health Service


being stretched to the maximum, and the border controls more


than anything, because I think with that being stretched,


and more people coming in, it's going to be stretched even


further, and I think the borders need to be controlled more.


Anybody is coming in and you don't know where they are going.


We do rely on people coming to work for us, different nationalities


and things like that, because if we didn't have these


people, we wouldn't be able to do our jobs,


we wouldn't be able to get the orders out.


I am concerned how many people we are letting in the country.


A quarter of semi and unskilled workers recently polled said


Some analysts predict the undecided are more likely to vote to stay,


but here, everyone I spoke to told me they hadn't made


up their minds, before saying in fact life would be


How many stars are there on the EU flag?


Across town, Newsnight hijacked a pub with a few EU


What is the date of the EU referendum?


Meet the Pink Ladies, a networking group for


Lancashire business women - their very own northern powerhouse.


Are people talking about the referendum?


I talk to customers, they will discuss it with us.


You know, and there is so many for and against, but most people


are kind of sat on the fence with it, because -


but they are more wavering towards the better the devil you


What is the name of agreement signed by the EU states, but not the UK,


which led to the abolition of border checks between those countries?


Just as plenty across our country don't know how they are going


More women than men say they are undecided.


I want to know whether it is going to be right or wrong.


I want to know whether we are going to stay the same.


Yes, Europe make decisions for us, but they are not all bad.


Nobody can tell us what is going to happen afterwards,


so all that is happening at the moment, everybody is telling


us if we leave it will be negative and it will be terrible.


And if we stay, then it is positive, but nobody knows, the truth


about what is going to happen should we leave.


I think that is why everybody is very undecided -


they don't really know, because nobody told us


I employ a Latvian seamstress, who is wonderful.


She is here because of the freedom of movement.


There is a shortage of nurses, doctors and those kind of services,


and there are jobs there to be filled, but we need that type


of person coming in, whereas at the moment, anyone can.


Whereas if we had control of our own borders, we could choose


June will be a big month for Britain in Europe,


the referendum of course, and also football's


And it seems our June hasn't quite hung up her boots.


Who would you like to take on from the Premier


Who do you reckon you would have a good go at?


I doubt it very much, but I would have a damn good try!


And so to speak to the Oxford union tomorrow and worn that... Update


your pardon, to warn the Conservative campaigners are


beginning to seem like Europe. -- John Major is going to speak to. The


decision about which way to vote can be influenced by all sorts of


factors. Many people have said they speak


for business in this debate. But as for the entrepreneurs


themselves, their decision about which way to vote can be


defined by all sorts of factors. So we asked John Timpson,


boss of the eponymous key cutting, engraving and "so much more"


business to tell us about how he's making his decision about Britain's


future membership of the EU. I think that someone


who is a process-driven, box-ticking, careful sort of guy,


or girl, is going to vote for in, because they are worried


about the uncertainty. If someone is more like me,


a bit of a maverick, who likes the idea of there


being more opportunities, I'll be voting to come out,


but I sent an e-mail to my three teenage grandchildren,


and asked them the question. I think actually they don't


know anything else. They were born in Europe


and they have lived I'm starting to now


wonder whether perhaps But I don't think that,


I think it's typical of somebody who has my experience or remember


what it was like when I've met plenty of people who have


been to Brussels, who actually are worried about the whole


bureaucracy that's being set up Do I find anything about the In


argument persuasive? Certainly it does give you a very


strong, almost guarantee of peace. No conflict between us


and any other part of Europe. And that has got to be -


that was really the attraction of the Common Market community


in the first place. But it comes at a hell


of a price, in giving What I think we should


be looking at is not the next four months,


or even four years, but ten years ahead,


where we have an opportunity to really do much more


off our own bat, and show what we in the UK can do,


without being tied down The Guardian has John Major warning


Brexit Tories they risk morphing into Ukip if they focus too heavily


on immigration. The Daily Mail goes after Cameron for ducking a TV


debate with the same Brexit Tories. China planning a secret takeover of


the nuclear power station in the Times. And the FT picks up the story


we covered earlier, Mark Carney's warning to the UK if we quit the


European Union. Some might not have been paying too much attention to


the contemporary art world, but the Turner prize nominations are out.


There are three candidates on the list. Here is a taste of their work.


Good night. The heat of the day triggered some


lively showers in southern counties. Rumbles of thunder.


lively showers in southern counties. overnight. Then we pick up this




James O'Brien on Vote Leave's response to Mark Carney's Brexit warning, the French Finance Minister and the future of the BBC. Plus what does Preston - and John Timpson - think of Brexit?

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