James O'Brien on Vote Leave's response to Mark Carney's Brexit warning and the future of the BBC. Plus what does Preston - and John Timpson - think of Brexit?
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This combination of influences on demand supply and the exchange
rate, could lead to a materially lower path for growth and a notably
Another day, another warning of the risks of Brexit.
The Governor of the Bank of England had his say today.
For the Leave campaign, a former chancellor will have his say.
We've been bringing you the future since 1922...
Is our content distinctive enough for you?
We'll debate whether the Government's plans
for the BBC have gone too far - or not far enough.
And are the workers in this Preston chocolate factory delighted
Well, to be honest, I think he gave too much.
Because then they all start coming over and the NHS...
The Governor of the Bank of England has issued a stark warning that
voting to leave the European Union could damage the British economy
and possibly trigger a technical recession.
Only last month, Mark Carney insisted, perhaps somewhat
optimistically, that "assessing and reporting risks does not mean
becoming involved in politics", but tonight his unprecedented
intervention has placed him at the centre of
Leave campaigners have accused him of inviting
speculators to short the pound, while one Conservative
backbencher has called for his immediate resignation.
In a moment Lord Lamont will give his response. First, we can set the
scene with Adam. What exactly has Mark Carney said? This revolves
around the release of two documents today. One is the regular inflation
report, the other is the minutes of the monetary policy committee. If
anyone is not an expert on these things, that's fine, these are
normally technical, serious, economic documents. They do not
normally set your heart flutter. However, what Mark Carney did today
was weighed first foot deeply forward into the Brexit debate.
Making some very clear points. -- wade. The much unprecedented. It
starts at the front of this document saying the most significant risks
concern the referendum. And it continues to make that point, saying
we had financial stability risks around Stirling, unemployment,
inflation, investment, it is quite a long shopping list. -- sterling.
Appearing to cover many bases. The most recent weakness reflects
in part the forthcoming referendum, on the UK's membership
of the European Union, which has pushed up uncertainty
measures to levels not seen More profoundly, a vote to leave
the European Union could have material economic effects
on the exchange rate, on demand The facts that could affect
the appropriate setting He went on to say that in the event
of a British exit, and he thought one of the possibilities was a
technical recession. That would be six months of contraction in the
economy. That is a technical expression. But that single word,
recession is bound to cause a very significant political response.
Especially because of who has uttered it. We have heard it from
the world and its wife about what the economic impact might be. The
words of President it is getting thrown around. But for the governor
of the bank of England to do it this time, how significant is that? Very.
This debate is framed a lot around economic reports. We have had a
blizzard of them recently. The Bank of England is different. It is our
central bank. It is independent and political. Doesn't have shareholders
to think about. It's specific remit is to analyse the UK economy, and
that is what the governor says he is doing. -- its. He said it would be
more political not to release this. Is the economic side of this done
and dusted, the debate? We have had a series of reports. This one will
get a lot of publicity. We have had the OECD, the ISS, the Treasury's
report, and plenty of others. -- IFS. They have all body said the
same thing. The IMF will speak tomorrow. It is expected to say
similar things. It raises one question, if the economic argument
has been decided, and I am sure you will hear the other side of that, is
there going to be pressure on the league campaign to look for other
areas in which to expand its argument. -- Leave campaign. Lord
Lamont will give his view. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer who is
currently voting for Leave. He was regarded as an astonishing coup for
George Osborne when he was appointed. Arguably the most
successful central bank in the world at the time. Are we lucky to have
his insights? He came here with a very high reputation, having been a
successful governor of the bank of Canada. I think he is in danger of
getting too involved in politics. What most afraid about his that --
is that he is in danger of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. He ought
to be careful with his words, because when the governor says
things it has a great effect. There is no reason why there should be a
downturn, or a recession, if Britain votes to leave. There might be a
degree of uncertainty. There is no reason for dramatic contraction to
take place. Let me finish... For the governor to say this is in danger of
creating a crisis where a crisis is completely avoidable and completely
unnecessary. It would have been far easier and far more, I think,
judicious for him to suit the have said, we are prepared for all
contingencies. All eventualities. You are not saying his analysis is
wrong, you are saying you should not have said anything? I think it is
quite likely to be wrong. I'm not saying it is right. All nine members
agree. The monetary policy committee and the governor in August 2013 told
the world that when unemployment reached 7% interest rates would
rise. Unemployed and it is now 5%. Interest rates have still not risen.
I need to be clear, you are not suggesting Mark Carney is in anyway
misleading, or trying to deceive the British public? This is a
unanimously agreed analysis of what an exit would entail. If you read
what they said, it is full of the word "Could". I think it was
unnecessary to use the word recession. I don't believe anybody
could forecast that there would be a recession after... Recessions are
rarely seen by any forecaster. I cannot recall any recession that has
been foreseen by forecasters. Really, this was alarmist. What I
think is happening, alas, and I think it is demeaning, is that all
of these great institutions, the Treasury, the Bank of England, the
OECD, the IMF, have become highly politicised. There is a close
interaction between the civil servants and all of them into
changing, working together, and, you know, that is a consensus. You have
used the word politicised to use economic analysis which does not fit
with your own on this issue. The Bank of England is much more
independent today than when you were Chancellor, and more than it has
been since its inception. To accuse all of the committee to be motivated
by anything other than sincerity, true, objectivity is a little bit,
well, that is perhaps... I don't agree. I think it was unnecessary to
talk. There is no justification for talking about a recession. Nobody
can foresee a recession. There is the reason why. There are risks, of
course, but there are risks both ways. To say that the risks are all
one way is a distortion. Of course, but it is the Bank of England's job
to look at these issues, to analyse them effectively, and then, in your
view, to stay silent. If there was any intent to persuade a political
narrative to shift one way or another, if there was any interest
vested by them, they would keep quiet. If you take something like
the exchange rate. And we were told in chilling terms there might be a
fall in the exchange rate. Not so long ago we were being told that the
exchange rate, which actually is at the same level when the referendum
was announced, we were told it would fall through. The exchange rate is
actually... It has been much lower during the lifetime of this
government than the previous Coalition Government. It is nothing
very alarming. They cannot say for sure what will happen to the
exchange rate. But they can provide guidance. It is not just the
exchange rate, housing prices will crash, family income will be
affected, economic growth which is already contracting would collapse
further. I want to be clear about this, Lord Lamont, obviously no
forecaster is infallible. Are you saying that he think the governor of
the Bank of England and all nine members of the monetary policy
committee are wrong, or somehow biased, or something else? I think
the NPC are entitled to highlight potential risks. Possibilities. --
MPC. But the language used afterwards in the press conference
was too certain, emphatic, and two in accordance with the government's
view. -- too in accordance. Thanks very much indeed.
Earlier today I spoke to the French Finance Minister, Michel Sapin.
He was in town for the anti-corruption summit
so effectively brought to our attention by David Cameron's
fantastically indiscreet descriptions of Nigeria
and Afghanistan, but I began by asking him about the referendum
and whether he sympathised with Mark Carney's intervention.
As Finance Minister of France, can you envision a future
in which we would be able to trade freely, the British would be able
to trade freely with you, but the freedom of movement
between our two countries would be curtailed?
Every voter in Britain is imagining hypotheses at the moment, Minister.
but would you, as Finance Minister, envision an entente
How has this debate, whatever its outcome proves to be,
how has it impacted on domestic French politics?
the risk of war in Europe, is that to your mind
The Government today unveiled a major overhaul
Inevitably, some commentators opined that there wasn't enough actual
overhauling on the way, while others insisted that there
Our job, as ever, is to consider thesis and antithesis in the hope
of securing some sort of synthesis, and we'll start doing that
In the very first instance, though, viewers need to know that they'll
have to pay the licence fee for at least the next eleven years,
and programme-makers need to start wrestling
with the Culture Secretary John Whittingdale's demand for more
Newsnight's political editor, Nicholas Watt, has been delving
They feared the worst. It turns out that Tess an Claudia can relax.
Strictly keeps its #3r50i78 Saturday evening slot, the BBC license fee is
safe for the next decade and the Royal Charter underpinning the
corporation will last a full 11 years, though there is a review
after five. I think that John Whittingdale's fox
has been shot by his own side. Simply because he has had to reign
in all of those terrible things he wanted to do to the BBC.
But there are concerns over the creation of a new supervisory board.
Labour and the BBC believe the Government wants to give itself too
great a role in appointing members. We have an executive board that does
all the editorial, sort of ultimate responsibility at the BBC. There are
no Government appointments on that, there never have been. We are
creating a unitary board and we accept that there could be a role
for the chairman and vice-chairman, being selected through a public
appointment process, we would like to discuss safeguards on that to
reflect the BBC's independence, but I think for the rest of the
non-execs our starting point they should be a appointed by the
chairman, chairing the nominations committee in the same way a plc
would. The main concern I have left, is the proposals that he had for
appointing the new unity broad, and I think there are a lot of concerns
still about those. The White Paper also says that the board has control
of editorial direction, it is going to be looking at output after the
event. We all know the chilling effect that that can have on
creative people, if you get told off for what you did afterwards.
But the Government believes that it is right to keep a close eye on an
organisation that is funded by the public, to the tune of ?4 billion.
They have huge power and authority, and that without accountability is
unhealthy. You have to remember that all of the trusts are appointed by
the BBC and formally the Governor os of the BBC were appointed by the
Government. What is the difference really? Today's squabbles will be
resolved, no doubt guaranteeing another generation of blockbuster
BBC dramas. The big dilemma in the future will
revolve round a question that is left unanswered in the White Paper.
Does it put the BBC on a sustainable footing for the decades ahead? Or
has the Government set in motion a mechanism to gnaw away at the BBC's
funding and structures in the digital age? The license fee is hot
safe because the technological changes that will Dominic Grieve the
demands of the consumer will make the license fee irrelevant.
-- that will drive. Supporters of the BBC believe that all roads
eventually lead to the license fee. I think there will always be a tight
leash on the BBC, a tight leash on the finances of the BBC, and if the
Secretary of State could find an alternative, to the license fee,
believe you me he would have found it. The fact he hasn't is because
the public can't see an alternative, and none of the commercial companies
that compete with the BBC want to compete with them on revenue. None.
The BBC will be safe as it moves towards its sentry over the next
decade. But the Government has definitelied a clear message. One of
the biggest public broadcasters cannot be immune from the digital
revolution that is shredding media organisations across the globe.
Not release because you have spot add way that our two main stories
can be knitted together. The referendum campaign, and the
possibility of a new look BBC. This happened when John Whittingdale the
churl secretary, one of the Cabinet ministers campaigning for a Brexit
told ITV news said he has sympathy with the unease about ITV's decision
to invite Nigel Farage who is not part of the formal vote leave
campaign to take part in one of the referendum debates. Now, what the
Labour Party are saying, is this goes to the heart of their concerns
about the Government's role in appointing members of the new
unitary board. And they are saying well jonth Whittingdale may have
said he was speaking in a personal capacity, but he has a form of quasi
judicial role and maybe in future if you have heavy Government
involvement maybe you could have a cabinet minister saying I am
speaking in a personal capacity but they carry weight. The Government
had made clear today it would have liked to appoint some members of the
unitary board but they say the BBC has the right to appoint the
majority of its members. Waheed Alli, Lord Alli,
is a media entrepreneur and Labour life peer,
and journalist Stephen Glover is a columnist for the Daily Mail
newspaper, they join me now. We will start with you, which
expected fireworks have we seen many If you asked the BBC a year ago when
John Whittingdale what they expected there was fear and panic, because he
was billed as a ferocious Thatcherite and what he has produced
today, is, with one or two exception, is more of the same, the
BBC has its future secured for the next 11 year, it is going to have a
real increase in license fee for the next FIA year, so I think Lord Hall
the Director-General will be happy this evening. Why would
the Director-General will be happy the ferocity of Thatcherism with a
desire to wouldn't that is what they thought.
They thought that the Whittingdale was a ferocious Thatcherite and
fact, many people who know him, I don't know him he has a reputation
for being a cautious person and he was never going to take on the BBC.
Behind him, he has a government which doesn't want to fight with the
BBC, a few weeks before the referendum. There has been little
cautious about your criticism of the BBC over... I wouldn't say that at
all. I am balanced and reasonable. That is why you are here. Were you
pleased with what came out. There is some good things. I have, I would
like to see more evidence that the BBC is going to curtail its
like to see more evidence that the which has done a lot to destroy the
or undermine the website of newspapers, which are in, you know
have big financial problems at the moment, many of them. I I would like
have big financial problems at the to have well, I mean, on that point,
it should be said it's a good thing that that the BBC has been
it should be said it's a good thing give a few million pounds of scraps
to local newspapers, 150 journalist, because the effect of
to local newspapers, 150 journalist, website, on local newspapers, has
made worse, has accelerated the decline. These aren't the headline
issues, the notion of making less popular problems, that must trouble
you. I doubt, this is sort popular problems, that must trouble
are just exhortations, aren't they. We will see. Lord Alli, I presume
you perhaps are a bit We will see. Lord Alli, I presume
than Steven Glover We will see. Lord Alli, I presume
the fireworks. Not really I think the Secretary of
the fireworks. Not really I think from an overt attack on the BBC to a
the fireworks. Not really I think detail. So if you
the fireworks. Not really I think Paper, there are ticking time bombs
in there, that he has set to explode over the coming months
in there, that he has set to explode independence, we have touched on the
appointment of the directors to the board. That needs to be an
independent process, it is an board. That needs to be an
Government has to give up appointing like a state controlled
Government has to give up appointing who is on the board of the BBC. If
you look at the license fee, they guaranteed it but in five years'
time there is to be a health check and they have taken some of that
money, and they have given it to commercial broadcasters, these are
commercial broadcasters that are doing very well, without taking
license fees, payer's money to make programmes. And the third and
probably the most distressing point, is this notion of distinctive
programming, it is a Trojan horse, it is put in there to say to the
BBC, you need to make distinctive programming, curtail making popular
programming, and make distinctive programming. This is to clarify the
notion it should be programmes that nobody else would make and the
reason they wouldn't is because known wants to watch them. Therefore
what happens is the ratings fail in the -- fall in the beak, the
Government can say, oh, you are not serving your audience, therefore we
want to take more of the license fee away from you. It's a sophisticated
plan. Of course it is. They always are. When you can't win your
argument, by standing up and making it in public, you hide behind the
detail. And that is what the Secretary of State has done and we
have to in Parliament protect the license fee payer, and do what the
public want. You know, every time we look like we are enjoying ourself,
every time we have popular programme, there is always a
politician passing by, that wants to take them away from us. Or a
journalist, even. Are you comfortable with the BBC making
popular and populist programmes? Well, it makes a lot of them, but it
seems to me the BBC, but it seems to me, there is no point point of the
BBC unless it does some things that the market doesn't do. That I think
is the point of what you were talking about. There are some things
like documentaries or religious programmes or children's programmes
which the BBC, it does, tries to make us laugh. There is a huge
amount of output. All one is saying that the BBC needs to attend to
those prosecution, which the market doesn't produce, otherwise what is
the point of BBC? Briefly cast your mind back a decade or three, did you
sit there feeling a sense of resentment as you were chuckling way
to more come and wise or Porridge. If they only made programme like
that now. You can't make... The argument is not that the BBC
shouldn't produce popular programme, it is it should do things with the
market may not do. May not produce. If it doesn't do that what is the
point of the BBC? Should it can make the Bake Off Of course. Our scones
are safe. Gentlemen, many thanks to both of you.
You don't need a degree in psephology to realise that,
as things stand, the EU referendum will be decided by the votes
Research shows that women are more likely than men to fall
Men, apparently, are more likely to lie about having already arrived
And many observers believe that the old Labour
heartlands could hold the key to victory for either side.
Accordingly, in the latest of Newsnight's Referendum Road
series, Katie Razzall headed to Preston.
I want England to be as great as it used to be.
I don't like to be told by somebody sat in Belgium what I should do.
She is taking her shoes off - I love it!
In her prime, June Gregson was goingly for the most successful
women's football team of the 20th century.
In fact, he burned my football boots.
He picked them up and threw them on the fire.
June's team, the Dick Kerr Ladies were famous.
Named after the Preston munitions factory where they worked,
from the off in 1917, her predecessors attracted
But when a staggering 53,000 turned out at Everton's Goodison Park
in 1920, the largest crowd that had ever been recorded
in the Football League, male or female, the fate
The FA banned them from playing in their stadiums.
Clever young goalie June played for the team in the 1950s,
Instead of accepting the mill or shop job that was her lot,
she took work in Greece and France - but that doesn't
I think this country is big enough, strong enough,
and it's certainly got the, oh, what do they say,
Let's do it while we have the chance to do it now.
And are lots of people, you know, saying
There's not many people that I have spoken to,
or speak to, is wanting to stay in it.
They're sick of the interference in their ordinary lives.
June's home town Preston may have changed over the years,
but its political affiliations have stayed solidly Labour.
That party is officially backing the Remain cause but what of its
traditional support base in places like this?
Many here seem to hark back to a time before we joined.
Beech's Chocolate has been on this site since 1920.
Despite losing contracts to factories in eastern Europe,
where labour is cheaper, they are going for glory
I clocked in and joined the shift.
I'll pick it up and take it to the bin for you.
So you know, it's quite appropriate we are doing Turkish Delight,
To be honest, I think it's too much.
Because then they will start coming over and using the NHS
Here they sit happily alongside Polish workers,
but they are still concerned about the pressures on services
caused by freedom of movement within the EU.
I had to go to the dentists yesterday, because mine was closed,
I hope not too much chocolate?
When I went there, there was a lady saying "Are you paying
After me, there was eight people come in, none of them paid,
You are saying the eight people who came in on benefits,
I just think it is because of, with the National Health Service
being stretched to the maximum, and the border controls more
than anything, because I think with that being stretched,
and more people coming in, it's going to be stretched even
further, and I think the borders need to be controlled more.
Anybody is coming in and you don't know where they are going.
We do rely on people coming to work for us, different nationalities
and things like that, because if we didn't have these
people, we wouldn't be able to do our jobs,
we wouldn't be able to get the orders out.
I am concerned how many people we are letting in the country.
A quarter of semi and unskilled workers recently polled said
Some analysts predict the undecided are more likely to vote to stay,
but here, everyone I spoke to told me they hadn't made
up their minds, before saying in fact life would be
How many stars are there on the EU flag?
Across town, Newsnight hijacked a pub with a few EU
What is the date of the EU referendum?
Meet the Pink Ladies, a networking group for
Lancashire business women - their very own northern powerhouse.
Are people talking about the referendum?
I talk to customers, they will discuss it with us.
You know, and there is so many for and against, but most people
are kind of sat on the fence with it, because -
but they are more wavering towards the better the devil you
What is the name of agreement signed by the EU states, but not the UK,
which led to the abolition of border checks between those countries?
Just as plenty across our country don't know how they are going
More women than men say they are undecided.
I want to know whether it is going to be right or wrong.
I want to know whether we are going to stay the same.
Yes, Europe make decisions for us, but they are not all bad.
Nobody can tell us what is going to happen afterwards,
so all that is happening at the moment, everybody is telling
us if we leave it will be negative and it will be terrible.
And if we stay, then it is positive, but nobody knows, the truth
about what is going to happen should we leave.
I think that is why everybody is very undecided -
they don't really know, because nobody told us
I employ a Latvian seamstress, who is wonderful.
She is here because of the freedom of movement.
There is a shortage of nurses, doctors and those kind of services,
and there are jobs there to be filled, but we need that type
of person coming in, whereas at the moment, anyone can.
Whereas if we had control of our own borders, we could choose
June will be a big month for Britain in Europe,
the referendum of course, and also football's
And it seems our June hasn't quite hung up her boots.
Who would you like to take on from the Premier
Who do you reckon you would have a good go at?
I doubt it very much, but I would have a damn good try!
And so to speak to the Oxford union tomorrow and worn that... Update
your pardon, to warn the Conservative campaigners are
beginning to seem like Europe. -- John Major is going to speak to. The
decision about which way to vote can be influenced by all sorts of
factors. Many people have said they speak
for business in this debate. But as for the entrepreneurs
themselves, their decision about which way to vote can be
defined by all sorts of factors. So we asked John Timpson,
boss of the eponymous key cutting, engraving and "so much more"
business to tell us about how he's making his decision about Britain's
future membership of the EU. I think that someone
who is a process-driven, box-ticking, careful sort of guy,
or girl, is going to vote for in, because they are worried
about the uncertainty. If someone is more like me,
a bit of a maverick, who likes the idea of there
being more opportunities, I'll be voting to come out,
but I sent an e-mail to my three teenage grandchildren,
and asked them the question. I think actually they don't
know anything else. They were born in Europe
and they have lived I'm starting to now
wonder whether perhaps But I don't think that,
I think it's typical of somebody who has my experience or remember
what it was like when I've met plenty of people who have
been to Brussels, who actually are worried about the whole
bureaucracy that's being set up Do I find anything about the In
argument persuasive? Certainly it does give you a very
strong, almost guarantee of peace. No conflict between us
and any other part of Europe. And that has got to be -
that was really the attraction of the Common Market community
in the first place. But it comes at a hell
of a price, in giving What I think we should
be looking at is not the next four months,
or even four years, but ten years ahead,
where we have an opportunity to really do much more
off our own bat, and show what we in the UK can do,
without being tied down The Guardian has John Major warning
Brexit Tories they risk morphing into Ukip if they focus too heavily
on immigration. The Daily Mail goes after Cameron for ducking a TV
debate with the same Brexit Tories. China planning a secret takeover of
the nuclear power station in the Times. And the FT picks up the story
we covered earlier, Mark Carney's warning to the UK if we quit the
European Union. Some might not have been paying too much attention to
the contemporary art world, but the Turner prize nominations are out.
There are three candidates on the list. Here is a taste of their work.
Good night. The heat of the day triggered some
lively showers in southern counties. Rumbles of thunder.
lively showers in southern counties. overnight. Then we pick up this
James O'Brien on Vote Leave's response to Mark Carney's Brexit warning, the French Finance Minister and the future of the BBC. Plus what does Preston - and John Timpson - think of Brexit?