Browse content similar to 23/05/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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No way, you don't need to be in the single market to trade. The global | :00:09. | :00:17. | |
body, Switzerland, is not in the European Union. The suggestion of | :00:18. | :00:21. | |
Norway and Iceland doing pretty well, but Bosnia, Serbia and the | :00:22. | :00:25. | |
Ukraine... I think we should remain part of this free trade area. Take | :00:26. | :00:29. | |
Switzerland, for example. Britain would be on the outside. It is as | :00:30. | :00:35. | |
credible as Jean-Claude Juncker joining Ukip. | :00:36. | :00:38. | |
Welcome to a world in which Britain votes to leave the EU. | :00:39. | :00:43. | |
We're here for a special Newsnight with politicians, | :00:44. | :00:45. | |
experts and voters to ask how we might fare. | :00:46. | :00:48. | |
Veteran negotiator Jonathan Powell gives his take on how | :00:49. | :00:50. | |
The markets are in turmoil, and there is a run on the pound. The | :00:51. | :01:00. | |
Prime Minister sent a senior civil servant, played by me, to Brussels | :01:01. | :01:04. | |
to begin scoping negotiations with the EU. Jonathan we are very | :01:05. | :01:09. | |
disappointed but of course you need to be reminded that it is up to you | :01:10. | :01:13. | |
to put forward your suggestions. And the Brexiters give us | :01:14. | :01:15. | |
their upbeat vision of life outside. Outside the EU, Britain is the | :01:16. | :01:25. | |
region's foremost knowledge-based economy. We lead the world in | :01:26. | :01:31. | |
biotech, services, law, education, the audiovisual sector. | :01:32. | :01:37. | |
Hello, welcome to the last of our six referendum specials, | :01:38. | :01:40. | |
each devoted to one big issue in the campaign. | :01:41. | :01:46. | |
Today we're looking at what Britain might be like, outside the EU, | :01:47. | :01:48. | |
We'll ask what kind of country we'd opt to be, and also, | :01:49. | :01:59. | |
what kind of relationship we'd have with the rest of the EU. | :02:00. | :02:02. | |
Now, nothing in life is certain, In or Out. | :02:03. | :02:04. | |
But you don't want to make a choice on June 23rd based on vague thoughts | :02:05. | :02:07. | |
of life outside - you want a specific vision. | :02:08. | :02:10. | |
And if you're thinking of voting to stay in, you surely must ask | :02:11. | :02:13. | |
George Osborne was today painting his picture | :02:14. | :02:18. | |
This is what happens if Britain leaves. The economy shrinks, the | :02:19. | :02:28. | |
value of the pound falls, inflation rises, unemployment rises, real | :02:29. | :02:32. | |
wages are hit, as are house prices, and as a result government borrowing | :02:33. | :02:38. | |
goes up. The central conclusions from the Treasury analysis are | :02:39. | :02:42. | |
clear. Voting to leave will push our economy into a recession. | :02:43. | :02:44. | |
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson painted his scene in | :02:45. | :02:46. | |
the Telegraph today - that Britain outside would forge | :02:47. | :02:51. | |
a new relationship "based on free trade and with traditional British | :02:52. | :02:53. | |
leadership on foreign policy, crime-fighting, | :02:54. | :02:55. | |
intelligence-sharing and other intergovernmental | :02:56. | :02:56. | |
Well, we'll see a vision of life outside tonight, and test it too. | :02:57. | :03:05. | |
With us here, our panel of undecided voters. | :03:06. | :03:07. | |
They've been with us for the six programmes, | :03:08. | :03:09. | |
We also have a panel of specialists, to offer their arguments. | :03:10. | :03:15. | |
And a leading politician from each side. | :03:16. | :03:19. | |
For Leave, it is Andrea Leadsom, minister in the Department | :03:20. | :03:21. | |
For Remain, it is former Labour front bencher, Chuka Ummuna. | :03:22. | :03:30. | |
I wonder, before we get stuck in, Andrea Letson, you were in the | :03:31. | :03:36. | |
Treasury under George until the election. I wonder what you made of | :03:37. | :03:46. | |
the Treasury analysis today? Well, generally, economic forecasts are | :03:47. | :03:48. | |
absolutely reliable for one thing and that is that they are always | :03:49. | :03:52. | |
wrong. If you go back in history, show me an economic forecast that | :03:53. | :03:57. | |
was right and I will be amazed. This one in particular, this so-called | :03:58. | :04:06. | |
recession, in fact, just squeaks to -0.1% for four quarters. That is | :04:07. | :04:10. | |
lost in the rounding soba might not be any truth to it. And of course | :04:11. | :04:14. | |
the point is that it makes all these horrendous assumptions about what | :04:15. | :04:17. | |
happens, so an economic forecast is only as good as the assumptions you | :04:18. | :04:21. | |
put into it and I do not accept any of the assumptions. And Treasury | :04:22. | :04:27. | |
officials, have they been duped by the political class? Why would they | :04:28. | :04:31. | |
come up with analysis also? Let's be clear, the Chancellor set up the | :04:32. | :04:37. | |
Office for Budget Responsibility and was very clear when we did it that | :04:38. | :04:41. | |
the problem is that over many years Treasury officials have got the | :04:42. | :04:46. | |
forecast wrong and have persuaded themselves to point in one direction | :04:47. | :04:49. | |
or another. Secondly, it is absolutely clear that an economic | :04:50. | :04:55. | |
forecast is only as good as the input into it. If you are sure, as | :04:56. | :05:00. | |
these forecasts do, that we will be pulling up the drawbridge and we | :05:01. | :05:03. | |
will not be doing any trade with anyone, that we will lose the | :05:04. | :05:06. | |
European Union free trade agreements, that there will be no | :05:07. | :05:09. | |
continuity there, that we will not get the same trade deal, then of | :05:10. | :05:14. | |
course you can make it look as bad as you like. What do you think of | :05:15. | :05:17. | |
the Treasury website? If you click on it, it has a big banner saying | :05:18. | :05:23. | |
that if Britain leaves the EU, recession results. A very solid | :05:24. | :05:33. | |
assertion for what is obviously a rather vague thing. I am very | :05:34. | :05:37. | |
surprised that the Treasury secretary would allow this sort of | :05:38. | :05:42. | |
thing. Chuka Umunna, did you find the announcement convincing or was | :05:43. | :05:45. | |
it overcooked? Nicola Sturgeon warned that it was overcooked. I | :05:46. | :05:48. | |
think they have probably got it about right and that is an unusual | :05:49. | :05:52. | |
thing for a Labour politician to say. We live in extraordinary times | :05:53. | :05:56. | |
and the London School of economics has been critical of the government | :05:57. | :06:00. | |
and of the Treasury for having a conservative estimate of the adverse | :06:01. | :06:06. | |
impact. People like Capital Economics have said they have been | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
to free-flowing. But if you look at a broad swathes of different groups, | :06:12. | :06:15. | |
the governor of the Bank of England, the IMF, different economic | :06:16. | :06:18. | |
organisations, trade unions, there is a broad consensus that if we came | :06:19. | :06:23. | |
out, certainly in the short-term, it would have a negative effect and in | :06:24. | :06:27. | |
the medium to long term, it would as well. I think Andrea has conceded | :06:28. | :06:31. | |
that there would probably be a 1% hit on GDP and I think that would be | :06:32. | :06:36. | |
a bad thing. We should not be playing Russian roulette with jobs. | :06:37. | :06:37. | |
Did not hear her concede that. A quick reminder that we're | :06:38. | :06:40. | |
running our live blog If you go to bbc.co.uk/newsnight | :06:41. | :06:42. | |
you'll find articles, analysis and fact-checking in real | :06:43. | :06:49. | |
time with the show. Let's ask now what kind of country | :06:50. | :06:51. | |
a post-Brexit Britain How would we use the freedoms | :06:52. | :06:54. | |
we gain by unshackling ourselves We can't just let George | :06:55. | :06:58. | |
Osborne answer that. So we asked the Tory MEP Dan Hannan | :06:59. | :07:00. | |
to set out his view for us. He's a passionate outer, | :07:01. | :07:04. | |
and he's on the campaign committee We think it's as good a view | :07:05. | :07:06. | |
of the dominant Leave vision, The only question people ask these | :07:07. | :07:11. | |
days is why it took so long. Outside the EU, Britain | :07:12. | :07:28. | |
is the region's foremost We lead the world in biotech, | :07:29. | :07:31. | |
services, law, education, Outside the EU's clinical trials | :07:32. | :07:39. | |
directive, we are again at Outside the EU's rules on data | :07:40. | :07:46. | |
retention, Hoxton has become the software capital of Europe, | :07:47. | :07:54. | |
the Silicon Valley of Outside the downright malicious | :07:55. | :07:56. | |
rules on pensions, equity and insurance, our financial | :07:57. | :08:06. | |
services are booming. Not only in London but in Edinburgh, | :08:07. | :08:10. | |
Leeds and Birmingham. And our older industries | :08:11. | :08:15. | |
have revived, too. Our farmers, always more innovative | :08:16. | :08:18. | |
than their continental rivals, Our fishing grounds have once again | :08:19. | :08:22. | |
become a great renewable resource. And outside the EU's energy | :08:23. | :08:35. | |
boondoggles, fuel prices have fallen back to world levels, | :08:36. | :08:38. | |
leading to a revival of our steel, cement, | :08:39. | :08:40. | |
ceramics and plastics producers. Britain has raised its eyes | :08:41. | :08:49. | |
to more global horizons. Yes, we still participate | :08:50. | :08:57. | |
in the great European common market that stretches from non-EU Iceland | :08:58. | :09:00. | |
to non-EU Turkey, but we have been able | :09:01. | :09:02. | |
to lift our eyes to more distant, more opulent markets, | :09:03. | :09:07. | |
markets to which we Over the last ten years, | :09:08. | :09:08. | |
every continent on this planet has experienced significant economic | :09:09. | :09:21. | |
growth except Antarctica and Europe. When we joined in 1973, | :09:22. | :09:29. | |
the 28 countries that make up the EU And it is dropping | :09:30. | :09:32. | |
virtually by the minute. We no longer have to pay ?20 billion | :09:33. | :09:46. | |
gross, ?10 billion net every year for the privilege of belonging | :09:47. | :09:50. | |
to the world's only Family incomes have received | :09:51. | :09:52. | |
a triple boost. Food prices are lower outside | :09:53. | :09:58. | |
the common agricultural policy. Fuel bills are lower | :09:59. | :10:00. | |
because energy prices have And taxes are lower | :10:01. | :10:02. | |
because of the independent dividend. And that means more household income | :10:03. | :10:14. | |
for everyone and a general stimulus As the Eurozone continues | :10:15. | :10:16. | |
its genteel decline, Britain has become the leader | :10:17. | :10:19. | |
of a wider European bloc. Those 22 European states | :10:20. | :10:25. | |
and territories that are linked to the EU through a common market, | :10:26. | :10:31. | |
not through political union. No longer are laws handed down to us | :10:32. | :10:36. | |
by Eurocrats invulnerable to public opinion and immune to the ballot | :10:37. | :10:47. | |
box, by indeed European Commissioners who often | :10:48. | :10:50. | |
owe their positions to having been We have recovered that precious | :10:51. | :10:52. | |
right to hire and fire the people Those megabanks, those | :10:53. | :10:59. | |
multinationals that have spent years and spent millions lobbying Brussels | :11:00. | :11:13. | |
to get rules that suit them They are now facing a lot more | :11:14. | :11:15. | |
competition from start-ups Of course the economy | :11:16. | :11:19. | |
as a whole has benefited. The British Eurocrats, | :11:20. | :11:22. | |
the British MEPs who have lost their tax-free, | :11:23. | :11:34. | |
Michelin-starred Or rather, we've been redeployed | :11:35. | :11:35. | |
to the more productive bits Daniel Hannan's picture | :11:36. | :11:40. | |
of Britain outside the EU. It's one that posits | :11:41. | :11:45. | |
an internationalist Britain, a free trader nation, embracing | :11:46. | :11:50. | |
globalisation and with a bonfire Other visions of a Brexit | :11:51. | :11:52. | |
are available - but it has to be said that Dan's there is pretty | :11:53. | :11:57. | |
commonly shared Let's explore it first | :11:58. | :11:59. | |
with our political guests. Andrea Leadsom, are you attracted by | :12:00. | :12:11. | |
the division? Absolutely. If we vote to leave, we will have a ?10 billion | :12:12. | :12:15. | |
a year independence dividends. That is as much as the NHS needs during | :12:16. | :12:23. | |
this Parliament to keep it on the road. ?10 billion a year, so we | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
could give it to him in one year. Simon Stephens says that if the | :12:28. | :12:31. | |
economy does not perform well, the ?10 billion will not get to him. But | :12:32. | :12:35. | |
Dan Hannan said something interesting, that we could lead the | :12:36. | :12:42. | |
world in law, audio sectors, but what is currently stopping us | :12:43. | :12:47. | |
leaving the world they are right now? I can tell you every day, day | :12:48. | :12:51. | |
in, day out, as an energy minister and previously and energy Minister, | :12:52. | :12:59. | |
you are stopped and limited by EU rules and policies and the need to | :13:00. | :13:04. | |
get things agreed. The EU as the sole right to negotiate free-trade | :13:05. | :13:09. | |
agreements, so there are huge limitations from EU directives. The | :13:10. | :13:13. | |
unintended consequences of EU directives, if you allow me I will | :13:14. | :13:17. | |
give you an example. The agency workers directive, in my | :13:18. | :13:21. | |
constituency I have a lot of HGV drivers, and they say to me that the | :13:22. | :13:25. | |
problem with the agency workers directive is that it means that if | :13:26. | :13:28. | |
you are employed through an agency for 12 weeks, you have a permanent | :13:29. | :13:33. | |
contract equivalent. So that is a perfectly good idea but the problem | :13:34. | :13:36. | |
is that what happens is they get laid off after week 11 for a week | :13:37. | :13:39. | |
and a bit and then the clock starts ticking again. So the unintended | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
consequences of a good idea, but when you just make it work across 28 | :13:45. | :13:48. | |
member states, it has unintended consequences which are disastrous | :13:49. | :13:52. | |
for people trying to look after a family. But that is an argument for | :13:53. | :13:56. | |
very few employment protections at all. I am a former employment law | :13:57. | :14:04. | |
and I know. The qualification requirement for unfair dismissal is | :14:05. | :14:06. | |
two years and the argument is that when people get near to their, they | :14:07. | :14:10. | |
suddenly do terrible things. The problem with the league campaign is | :14:11. | :14:17. | |
that they can lean back paint this vision -- they paint this vision of | :14:18. | :14:22. | |
a deregulated labour market. Many employment relations will go, a lot | :14:23. | :14:26. | |
of them. We will probably get increased tariffs so if you look at | :14:27. | :14:30. | |
things that you buy on the High Street, 28% of the goods on High | :14:31. | :14:36. | |
Street shelves come from the EU. But on the first point, the deregulated | :14:37. | :14:41. | |
labour market, is it fair to say that if we leave, Britain becomes | :14:42. | :14:46. | |
more deregulated? People like Lord Lawson, the former chairman of Vote | :14:47. | :14:49. | |
Leave, he said that structural reform is crucial to economic reform | :14:50. | :14:54. | |
and it is hard to achieve within the EU. Is that division? The question I | :14:55. | :15:00. | |
am trying to get at, if you like regulation and you want labour | :15:01. | :15:05. | |
protection was, and if there are things you like, should we run a | :15:06. | :15:12. | |
mile from your vision of Brexit, which would be a more deregulated | :15:13. | :15:14. | |
one? If we vote to Leave we wake up and | :15:15. | :15:24. | |
nothing has changed because all of the EU laws and regulations are in | :15:25. | :15:29. | |
UK law. This is an important point because people on the remains I'd | :15:30. | :15:33. | |
like to say there would be no maternity and paternity leave, no | :15:34. | :15:36. | |
constructive dismissal and that is obviously rubbish. On June 24 you | :15:37. | :15:42. | |
wake up and nothing has changed. You have the freedom to then decide if | :15:43. | :15:48. | |
you want to change things so the point is the government of the day | :15:49. | :15:54. | |
then decides with the support of the people in a general election whether | :15:55. | :15:59. | |
or not... You don't want us to leave the European Union to strengthen | :16:00. | :16:04. | |
employment protection. The UK were the first to introduce rules against | :16:05. | :16:12. | |
female genital mutilation. It goes against... It will be the choice of | :16:13. | :16:17. | |
the UK... It goes against everything and Andrea has written pamphlets and | :16:18. | :16:21. | |
signed up to things with free marketeers within the Conservative | :16:22. | :16:25. | |
Party and I respect that is her point of view. The idea that you | :16:26. | :16:32. | |
want to leave the European Union... Can you clarify whether you think a | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
result of leaving the EU would be a Britain that is if you like more | :16:38. | :16:43. | |
deregulated, more like Hong Kong and less if you like continental | :16:44. | :16:47. | |
European? Very specifically in the area of employment law I would not | :16:48. | :16:53. | |
expect to see massive deregulation, I would not expect to see a | :16:54. | :16:57. | |
whittling down of workers rights. You would keep the working Time | :16:58. | :17:01. | |
directive? We would make amendments to it which would suit the UK more. | :17:02. | :17:13. | |
In the NHS people who are learning how to do neurosurgery for example, | :17:14. | :17:16. | |
as things stand with the working Time directive there are real | :17:17. | :17:22. | |
problems... You want to weaken it. I am seeing make it adapt to the UK | :17:23. | :17:29. | |
situation. That means weakening it. Time off, leave? The Dan Hannan | :17:30. | :17:38. | |
vision which sees as doing so much better outside, I just wonder what | :17:39. | :17:43. | |
the active ingredient of making it work is? I assumed a lot of that was | :17:44. | :17:47. | |
about deregulation and I have looked at various people on the Leave side | :17:48. | :17:53. | |
and it implies it is all about deregulation, getting rid of the | :17:54. | :17:59. | |
shackles and it's not that? It's the ability to choose policies. For me | :18:00. | :18:04. | |
as energy Minister, let's get away from employment law because that's a | :18:05. | :18:10. | |
subject which is a red herring. Deregulation... Why is it a red | :18:11. | :18:15. | |
herring? There is not an effort or desire to weaken the workers rights. | :18:16. | :18:22. | |
THEY TALK OVER EACH OTHER You said let's get off employment regulation, | :18:23. | :18:28. | |
get onto something else. The sorts of areas the UK could do better in | :18:29. | :18:32. | |
his negotiating free trade agreements with other parts the | :18:33. | :18:37. | |
world, with the 2.3 billion consumers in the Commonwealth with | :18:38. | :18:43. | |
whom we have ancient ties of culture, language, trade deals. Look | :18:44. | :18:49. | |
at Pakistan and Jamaica, we have deals with them. | :18:50. | :18:51. | |
Let's introduce our broader panel now - Peter Sutherland, | :18:52. | :18:53. | |
former director general at the World Trade Organisation | :18:54. | :18:57. | |
and European commissioner for competition. | :18:58. | :19:00. | |
Ngaire Woods, Dean of the Blavatnik School | :19:01. | :19:02. | |
Kathrine Kleveland, leader of the Norwegian 'No to EU' party. | :19:03. | :19:08. | |
And the former British Ambassador to Warsaw Charles Crawford. | :19:09. | :19:15. | |
Peter Sutherland, we saw that very favourable if you like view of the | :19:16. | :19:27. | |
UK, what was your take on that, the Dan Hannan view? First of all let me | :19:28. | :19:31. | |
make one very important point, at the beginning of this programme two | :19:32. | :19:36. | |
examples were cited, Norway and Switzerland. As what could happen | :19:37. | :19:42. | |
outside the EU. Both of those countries have two apply all EU | :19:43. | :19:47. | |
regulations including the regulations referred to. They have | :19:48. | :19:51. | |
to allow free movement of people and they have to make a contribution in | :19:52. | :19:58. | |
the exact same way as the UK to the budget of the EU. That is a vitally | :19:59. | :20:04. | |
important point. We will come to the negotiations we have and all that. | :20:05. | :20:10. | |
It's a very important point, on the regulatory point, the EU through the | :20:11. | :20:17. | |
creation of an internal market has been the most dynamic force in | :20:18. | :20:23. | |
bringing movement to the European economy that has existed in the last | :20:24. | :20:30. | |
50 years. Why has the economy not been dynamic? Without the EU we | :20:31. | :20:36. | |
would be in a much worse situation as a continent than we are. But why | :20:37. | :20:43. | |
then has the EU, and Dan Hannan said it, the growth rate has not been | :20:44. | :20:46. | |
spectacular, it has grown over the last decade but not very much. Why, | :20:47. | :20:52. | |
if it is such a poor spur competition, why has it been so | :20:53. | :20:58. | |
lacklustre? There are inherent flaws in the political reaction to the | :20:59. | :21:02. | |
dynamics of globalisation in Europe but it is not the EU which has | :21:03. | :21:06. | |
caused the problem. The problem has been mitigated by opening up borders | :21:07. | :21:13. | |
economic borders in Europe. Closing them down, as the Brexit people | :21:14. | :21:17. | |
really want because it will be possible otherwise to remain in a | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
trading relationship, is not the answer. Katherine Kleveland, you are | :21:23. | :21:28. | |
the guest from Norway, you have come here to intrude on our private grief | :21:29. | :21:33. | |
as we have our argument. What is the feeling in Norway about joining up | :21:34. | :21:41. | |
and large? In Norway we are very satisfied being outside the euro, | :21:42. | :21:48. | |
the EU. And still most Norwegians want to be out. We have no majority | :21:49. | :21:57. | |
on every single pole in the question about EU membership for 11 years. So | :21:58. | :22:02. | |
they are not in any doubt, what is it that drives it, is it fresh, is | :22:03. | :22:09. | |
it oil? What makes Norway different to Denmark, Sweden, Finland and so | :22:10. | :22:16. | |
many others? We are satisfied outside the EU and I think it is a | :22:17. | :22:21. | |
lot of things. Democracy, sovereignty. We have had unions by | :22:22. | :22:27. | |
our neighbour countries were sometimes before so we know | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
something about the union. But we have said no in referendums in both | :22:32. | :22:42. | |
1972 and 1994 and still it is hard, it is a very high majority who want | :22:43. | :22:48. | |
to be outside the EU. I think we want to make the decisions | :22:49. | :22:53. | |
ourselves, I think we are very satisfied being outside and yes. We | :22:54. | :23:02. | |
will talk more about the Norway option... I want to say something | :23:03. | :23:10. | |
about the scaremongering, because I directed my soggy scaremongering | :23:11. | :23:16. | |
from the referendum in Norway -- I recognise all the scaremongering. I | :23:17. | :23:20. | |
want to talk about the positive vision for Britain outside of the | :23:21. | :23:23. | |
lies on trade deals signed with countries outside of Europe. India, | :23:24. | :23:32. | |
China, Switzerland has signed a deal with China for example. Can you give | :23:33. | :23:36. | |
us your assessment of the ease with which we will be able to sign those | :23:37. | :23:42. | |
deals? The essence of trade deals is how much market do you have two of | :23:43. | :23:46. | |
the other side? It Switzerland wants to have a trade deal with China it | :23:47. | :23:52. | |
says this is our market, quite small, your market is enormous, we | :23:53. | :23:56. | |
need a treat wheel with you. China says, as they have done, fine, you | :23:57. | :24:01. | |
can give us completely open entry into your economy and we will open | :24:02. | :24:07. | |
up for you to trade into ours in 15 years' time. That is a deal, that is | :24:08. | :24:14. | |
a deal you can do. That is the deal China did with Switzerland. If | :24:15. | :24:17. | |
everybody in the world believed in a free market as a matter of religious | :24:18. | :24:21. | |
faith Britain might have a chance but that's not how it works. | :24:22. | :24:25. | |
Countries say how big is your market and that is the deal we will do. | :24:26. | :24:30. | |
That is why Britain is part of a European market of 500 million and | :24:31. | :24:34. | |
is part of some successful trade deals with more than 60 other | :24:35. | :24:44. | |
countries and that is Britain's market. If Britain wants to | :24:45. | :24:46. | |
negotiate those alone there are two problems, they will always be the | :24:47. | :24:48. | |
rule taker. The big economies will dictate terms. And it takes time, it | :24:49. | :24:52. | |
takes an average 28 months to come up with a trade deal. The reason | :24:53. | :24:57. | |
that is important is that all these flourishing sectors that Dan Hannan | :24:58. | :25:03. | |
talked about need investment. When investors want to come to Britain | :25:04. | :25:07. | |
they want to know two things, they want certainty about what the rules | :25:08. | :25:10. | |
will be and they want a bigger market share. So if Britain says we | :25:11. | :25:15. | |
are not sure what we are going to have, it will take a few years to | :25:16. | :25:20. | |
negotiate and we want have access to a big market, Britain has a problem. | :25:21. | :25:26. | |
-- we will not have access. Is that a problem for the Brexit side? No, | :25:27. | :25:34. | |
Singapore's average time taken is 22 months for free trade agreements. | :25:35. | :25:42. | |
Switzerland has far greater access to world economies than does the EU | :25:43. | :25:46. | |
in terms of the GDP they have access to. And of course the point is that | :25:47. | :25:53. | |
when the UK votes to leave the EU we currently have tariff free trade | :25:54. | :25:58. | |
with the EU so simply what Remain like to say is that tariffs will be | :25:59. | :26:01. | |
hyped but World Trade Organisation rules would prevent that. The | :26:02. | :26:07. | |
imperative to the European economy of continuing to trade freely and | :26:08. | :26:12. | |
have access to the UK market will incentivise an agreement on | :26:13. | :26:15. | |
continued tariff free trade. That will be easily done because we have | :26:16. | :26:19. | |
aligned our goods and services to theirs for the last 43 years. Easier | :26:20. | :26:26. | |
than... That as a whole load of assertion, the first thing to point | :26:27. | :26:33. | |
out. It is vision, Chuka. It is fantasy in my view. 44% of our | :26:34. | :26:42. | |
experts go to the EU -- our exports. On average by percent of the exports | :26:43. | :26:49. | |
come to us -- 5%. In terms of our trade with them, obviously there is | :26:50. | :26:57. | |
balance, I don't argue we will not be able to trade but the question is | :26:58. | :27:02. | |
as has been saved are the terms on which you can trade. I remember when | :27:03. | :27:06. | |
I was Shadow Business Secretary and I went on a trip to Beijing and I | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
met with parts of the Chinese government as you do. They said, why | :27:11. | :27:15. | |
is it there are some people in your country that want to leave the | :27:16. | :27:18. | |
European Union because when you are negotiating with us whether it is | :27:19. | :27:22. | |
trade or whatever it may be you are sitting on one side of the table | :27:23. | :27:26. | |
with half a billion other people and negotiating with our 1.3 billion | :27:27. | :27:30. | |
people. Why do you want to sit in the corner with your 65 million? The | :27:31. | :27:36. | |
question is the terms in which we can get it. People in this debate, | :27:37. | :27:41. | |
one of the criticisms of Barack Obama was that you would never | :27:42. | :27:45. | |
accept, Boris Johnson said you would never accept what we have if you | :27:46. | :27:48. | |
were there the United States but we are not the United States. A poll | :27:49. | :27:57. | |
today of the FTSE 350, the 350 listing companies were asked what | :27:58. | :28:04. | |
the impact of Brexit would be. How many said it would be positive? Can | :28:05. | :28:14. | |
you guess? It was 1%. Are they old alluded, that they don't know how | :28:15. | :28:18. | |
good it will be? Because Dan Hannan says we will be leaders in so many | :28:19. | :28:22. | |
sectors, the companies that Britain currently has clearly don't know. I | :28:23. | :28:28. | |
am amazed you would say that as a BBC journalist because you would | :28:29. | :28:31. | |
know that of the businesses in the UK only about 5% or 12% export to | :28:32. | :28:38. | |
the EU so why would Brexit the better for non-exporters? That's a | :28:39. | :28:45. | |
completely misleading... I think there are around 200,000 companies | :28:46. | :28:51. | |
that export to the EU, the question is how many people do the employee? | :28:52. | :28:57. | |
A lot. This is an odd islands, they are interconnected. Look at the car | :28:58. | :29:02. | |
industry for example, big manufacturing sites in the | :29:03. | :29:06. | |
north-east for examples. If anything negative impacts on those industries | :29:07. | :29:09. | |
it's not just the car industry affected its all of the supply | :29:10. | :29:15. | |
chain, the consumer businesses which service the employees and others in | :29:16. | :29:20. | |
those businesses. In the end our economy is interconnected and it is | :29:21. | :29:23. | |
interconnected with the rest of the world and that is the issue. The | :29:24. | :29:27. | |
rest of the world is the point, what does the UK have going for it? We | :29:28. | :29:32. | |
are the world's fifth guest economy, we have the best contract... THEY | :29:33. | :29:41. | |
TALK OVER EACH OTHER We have so much going for us. I want to talk to the | :29:42. | :29:52. | |
panel of voters. How many of you thought the video of Dan Hannan was | :29:53. | :29:59. | |
realistic? How many of you thought it was not a realistic view? You | :30:00. | :30:07. | |
thought it was too optimistic? I remember in the first and second | :30:08. | :30:10. | |
episode of this series feeling relate upbeat about leaving the | :30:11. | :30:15. | |
European Union but since then I have noticed it has been increasingly | :30:16. | :30:20. | |
difficult to get anybody to substantiate their claims. Last week | :30:21. | :30:27. | |
for example they spoke about ?350 million per week and you asked a lot | :30:28. | :30:30. | |
of questions and they couldn't substantiate it. That is my problem. | :30:31. | :30:36. | |
How many of you felt attracted to Britain which was a bit more | :30:37. | :30:41. | |
deregulated, which was changing the regulations, throwing a lot of them | :30:42. | :30:46. | |
away, is that attractive or unattractive? I think it's quite | :30:47. | :30:49. | |
attractive but I just think it's unrealistic. Why? I just don't think | :30:50. | :30:58. | |
that what Britain would look like if we left. It sounds nice but I don't | :30:59. | :31:02. | |
think it's realistic. Any other views? I just wonder how it will | :31:03. | :31:10. | |
happen. There are some lovely ideas but it looks like a bag of ideas, I | :31:11. | :31:15. | |
don't know how it happens I don't know how to join the dots. | :31:16. | :31:22. | |
Andrea, can you help them out? They are not quite persuaded. They do not | :31:23. | :31:27. | |
have any specific objections but the risk that connection between the | :31:28. | :31:31. | |
description and what you will actually get. I totally understand | :31:32. | :31:35. | |
that and the difficulty for people who are advocating for the UK to | :31:36. | :31:39. | |
leave the EU is that it is impossible, as I have said. Economic | :31:40. | :31:43. | |
forecasts, you can be sure they will always be wrong so it is impossible | :31:44. | :31:47. | |
to say that this is absolutely what it will look like. I feel that you | :31:48. | :31:52. | |
have to look at instead in the rear-view mirror, what do we now? | :31:53. | :31:56. | |
And what we do know, the facts are that this ?10 billion independent | :31:57. | :32:01. | |
dividend, we know we will get that and that he is a huge sum of money. | :32:02. | :32:05. | |
That would mean that we did not need any more policies. I don't want to | :32:06. | :32:11. | |
go back to that. Then we need to look at, what are the advantages of | :32:12. | :32:14. | |
the UK in world terms? Are we big enough to stand on our own two feet? | :32:15. | :32:20. | |
The English, the time zone, the contract law. We have had all that | :32:21. | :32:25. | |
and we need to move on. We have another big chunk to get through. | :32:26. | :32:27. | |
Well, look, we have discussed at some length | :32:28. | :32:29. | |
But there is a second dimension to this - | :32:30. | :32:35. | |
will we have with our old chums in the European Union? | :32:36. | :32:38. | |
Vote Brexit, and on June 24th, talks will start on some kind | :32:39. | :32:41. | |
of new treaty arrangement to govern our relationship with the EU. | :32:42. | :32:44. | |
There has to be some kind of deal to replace the EU treaties. | :32:45. | :32:47. | |
The main challenge is to negotiate new rules | :32:48. | :32:52. | |
There are a range of options that could keep us close | :32:53. | :32:57. | |
There's been a lot of talk of being like Norway. | :32:58. | :33:04. | |
It's out of the EU, but in a group called the EEA with almost full | :33:05. | :33:08. | |
One down from that is being like Switzerland, out of the EU, | :33:09. | :33:14. | |
and only a partial member of the single market. | :33:15. | :33:21. | |
Switzerland can pick and choose what it signs up to. | :33:22. | :33:23. | |
But the EU can pick and choose what access it gives Switzerland. | :33:24. | :33:26. | |
Mostly following the principle that the more access to the EU market, | :33:27. | :33:36. | |
the more strings attached. The backstop option if nothing else | :33:37. | :33:37. | |
is arranged, is simply for Britain to be a member | :33:38. | :33:40. | |
of the World Trade Organisation. No special EU deal, but facing more | :33:41. | :33:42. | |
barriers to European trade. It should be said that the preferred | :33:43. | :33:49. | |
option that Brexiters are coalescing around would place us outside | :33:50. | :33:51. | |
of the single market - Whatever happens in the event | :33:52. | :33:54. | |
of an Out vote, we'll try to negotiate some kind | :33:55. | :33:58. | |
of friendly deal with the EU, as it accounts for | :33:59. | :34:00. | |
44% of our exports. Unfortunately, it's not just down | :34:01. | :34:02. | |
to us, it's also down to them. So how might the conversation | :34:03. | :34:05. | |
with Brussels go? We asked a veteran diplomat | :34:06. | :34:17. | |
to look into that. Jonathan Powell served | :34:18. | :34:19. | |
as Tony Blair's chief of staff in Downing Street; he's | :34:20. | :34:21. | |
firmly for Remaining in, and with the help of a former EU | :34:22. | :34:23. | |
commissioner, Antonio Vittorino, has been imagining the kinds | :34:24. | :34:26. | |
of discussion we might be It is the morning after the night | :34:27. | :34:35. | |
before. Vote Leave has had a surprise victory. The markets are in | :34:36. | :34:40. | |
turmoil and was a run on the pound. The Prime Minister has sent a senior | :34:41. | :34:44. | |
civil servant, played by me, to Brussels to begin negotiations with | :34:45. | :34:51. | |
you. With clear red lines set by the referendum on immigration, budget | :34:52. | :34:53. | |
contributions and sovereignty. As you can imagine, we are very | :34:54. | :34:57. | |
disappointed at the result of the referendum but of course we respect | :34:58. | :35:02. | |
the decision of the British people. But you need to bear in mind that it | :35:03. | :35:09. | |
is up to you to put forward your suggestions. It is up to us to | :35:10. | :35:17. | |
decide how they can be accepted. The first option is to remain in the | :35:18. | :35:21. | |
single market, like Norway. As a member of the European economic | :35:22. | :35:27. | |
area. It has benefits, it is outside the European Union. You are | :35:28. | :35:36. | |
proposing the Norway model which means joining the EEA. But you know | :35:37. | :35:42. | |
very well that being in the single market rings along certain | :35:43. | :35:49. | |
responsibilities, such as the indivisibility of the four freedoms. | :35:50. | :35:51. | |
The free flow of capital services and goods includes also the free | :35:52. | :36:00. | |
flow of people. You cannot take three and leave one out. You are | :36:01. | :36:03. | |
putting those conditions on our memberships of the single market. It | :36:04. | :36:08. | |
would be a rejection of the things the British people have voted for, | :36:09. | :36:14. | |
we cannot do that. I am seeing more than that. I am saying that the | :36:15. | :36:17. | |
development of the single market will be decided by us in Brussels | :36:18. | :36:24. | |
and we will send you the rules to be permitted. In Oslo, this is called | :36:25. | :36:31. | |
government by fax. But we are a serious country, and we must be | :36:32. | :36:35. | |
allowed to have our own special relationship. Why would we not be | :36:36. | :36:38. | |
allowed to have a different relationship to Norway? Norway is a | :36:39. | :36:41. | |
serious country. You cannot say that! But the reality is that we can | :36:42. | :36:48. | |
setup a special arrangement for a former member like you. But let's be | :36:49. | :36:54. | |
frank, we are concerned with other member states who feel tempted to | :36:55. | :37:02. | |
use the British Pathe. So I will not anticipate that there is too much | :37:03. | :37:07. | |
willingness to change the rules of the European Economic Area. The | :37:08. | :37:12. | |
Norwegian option would not work for us. If we had to obey the rules, | :37:13. | :37:17. | |
they will not let us have a free ride. I will try something else. The | :37:18. | :37:23. | |
second option is to leave the EU and rejoin at much like Switzerland, | :37:24. | :37:28. | |
which has over 120 separate agreements. -- rejoin EPTA. But if | :37:29. | :37:33. | |
we cannot be inside of the single market, we would like to be outside | :37:34. | :37:38. | |
it but with free access. We could be in EFTA like Switzerland. What is | :37:39. | :37:44. | |
wrong with being like them? They have an excellent relationship, with | :37:45. | :37:47. | |
separate agreements that they do not have to accept. Why can we not have | :37:48. | :37:51. | |
exactly what they had? They even had a referendum on immigration, to stop | :37:52. | :37:55. | |
immigration into Switzerland. But that is the problem. The Swiss model | :37:56. | :38:03. | |
is broken. The EU refused to accept the decision in the referendum on | :38:04. | :38:09. | |
immigration. And we have put into question the entire agreement with | :38:10. | :38:12. | |
Switzerland. We are putting pressure on them to make an overall revision | :38:13. | :38:18. | |
of the position, the relationship between the EU and Switzerland. How | :38:19. | :38:23. | |
can you expect us to offer you something that we are putting into | :38:24. | :38:30. | |
question? Norway. But we are a bigger country than Switzerland. Why | :38:31. | :38:33. | |
can we not have the relationship that Switzerland have come up with | :38:34. | :38:37. | |
the advantages of the single market, without immigration. Why can we not | :38:38. | :38:42. | |
have our services and free access to the EU? For a simple reason. Because | :38:43. | :38:45. | |
the agreement with Switzerland does not cover services and it does not | :38:46. | :38:52. | |
include financial services, which art in an economic area that is very | :38:53. | :38:57. | |
important. You are not serious about the Swiss model. He would exclude | :38:58. | :39:02. | |
our services from the EU under the circumstances? Yes. That is the | :39:03. | :39:06. | |
system. In which case, we will not go for that option. Even if the | :39:07. | :39:11. | |
Swiss option was on offer, I could not tell the Prime Minister that the | :39:12. | :39:16. | |
services were excluded. That is 80% of our economy. I have to try | :39:17. | :39:21. | |
something else. The third option is a free trade agreement with the EU | :39:22. | :39:25. | |
like Canada, where we control our borders and try to get as much | :39:26. | :39:28. | |
access as we can for goods and services. Yes, we can negotiate a | :39:29. | :39:35. | |
free trade agreement with the UK, as we have done with Canada. It would | :39:36. | :39:42. | |
also be in our interest, I believe. Nevertheless, I must say that this | :39:43. | :39:47. | |
agreement will take time to negotiate. We have negotiated for | :39:48. | :39:50. | |
several years with the Canadians and it has not yet been concluded in the | :39:51. | :39:56. | |
sense of being ratified. I am not optimistic. But we are not Canada, | :39:57. | :40:04. | |
we are your guest trading partner. Germany has a trade deficit with us | :40:05. | :40:07. | |
and they will not want to stop selling Mercedes to us. You will not | :40:08. | :40:12. | |
want to stop selling Portuguese wine to us. Open trade is in your | :40:13. | :40:17. | |
interest. Yes, you are a major trading partner. A big, worldwide | :40:18. | :40:22. | |
economy. But you sell 44% of your goods to us and we only sell to you | :40:23. | :40:32. | |
8%. And you mention the trade deficit, but let's be clear, you | :40:33. | :40:36. | |
have a trade deficit with only two countries, Germany and the | :40:37. | :40:40. | |
Netherlands. They are definitely important countries in the EU | :40:41. | :40:43. | |
economy but you need to bear in mind that there are other member states, | :40:44. | :40:48. | |
and the Germans might be interested in selling you the Mercedes but | :40:49. | :40:54. | |
probably the Polish are much more attached to the idea of free | :40:55. | :40:58. | |
movement of people. And Jonathan, in this conversation we always need to | :40:59. | :41:04. | |
bear in mind, even if only one rejects the agreement, it will not | :41:05. | :41:11. | |
come into force. The three negotiated options will not work. As | :41:12. | :41:16. | |
a negotiator, I always have a back-up, best alternative and I will | :41:17. | :41:21. | |
try that now. The final option is not to seek any special relationship | :41:22. | :41:25. | |
with the European Union but to revert to the World Trade | :41:26. | :41:29. | |
Organisation rules. You could consider that possibility. But | :41:30. | :41:35. | |
probably you should think about it carefully. The question is not the | :41:36. | :41:43. | |
weight of tariffs, the question is the nontariff areas. Administrative | :41:44. | :41:49. | |
rules, consumer protection rules, standards. Do we want to go back to | :41:50. | :41:55. | |
that world? But if you are proposing to impose sanctions on us, we will | :41:56. | :41:59. | |
take measures against you, reciprocal measures under world | :42:00. | :42:02. | |
trade organisation rules. It is awkward to listen to British | :42:03. | :42:06. | |
officials speaking about sanctions and protectionism. But let me say | :42:07. | :42:12. | |
frankly, you need to speak to the opposition at the World Trade | :42:13. | :42:14. | |
Organisation because at the moment you are integrated into the European | :42:15. | :42:19. | |
Union as a group of countries. When you are standing alone, you have to | :42:20. | :42:24. | |
redefine not only your position within the World Trade Organisation | :42:25. | :42:26. | |
but in relation to all the other trading partners. Remember what | :42:27. | :42:33. | |
Barack Obama said here in London a few weeks before the referendum. If | :42:34. | :42:39. | |
you leave the European Union, you go back to the end of the queue. The | :42:40. | :42:45. | |
only other option for Britain would be a customs union like Turkey or an | :42:46. | :42:51. | |
accession agreement like Albania but neither are on the table and we | :42:52. | :42:54. | |
would not want them if they were. I have been negotiating for 40 years | :42:55. | :42:59. | |
and in my opinion this is one of the most difficult negotiating hands I | :43:00. | :43:02. | |
have ever seen. There is a choice on one hand between sovereignty and on | :43:03. | :43:05. | |
the other hand, access to the single market. I will have to go back and | :43:06. | :43:09. | |
tell the Prime Minister that he has to choose. | :43:10. | :43:11. | |
So a bit of mock diplomacy there, from Jonathan Powell. | :43:12. | :43:14. | |
I think it's fair to say that he didn't seem to try very hard | :43:15. | :43:17. | |
in those negotiations - but then he is trying to convince | :43:18. | :43:20. | |
us not to get into them in the first place. | :43:21. | :43:23. | |
Charles Crawford, I don't know if you have 40 years of diplomatic | :43:24. | :43:28. | |
experience, but you have got some. How do you think negotiations would | :43:29. | :43:36. | |
go? Well, can I answer the lady over there who says that she cannot see | :43:37. | :43:42. | |
how we get there? I think part of the problem is imagining time. A 20 | :43:43. | :43:51. | |
year period, unscrambling this relationship, it is more realistic | :43:52. | :43:55. | |
than six weeks. That is the first thing to think about. What was | :43:56. | :43:59. | |
revealing about that exchange was that first of all Jonathan Powell is | :44:00. | :44:03. | |
talking to the commission, not talking to other EU governments. And | :44:04. | :44:07. | |
the EU commission brazenly aren't giving us one of the reasons why we | :44:08. | :44:10. | |
should leave, which is that they are saying that we do not want other | :44:11. | :44:14. | |
countries to get it into their heads that you could be like these others. | :44:15. | :44:19. | |
It is really obnoxious. But it is right that we would have to put | :44:20. | :44:24. | |
forward a plan. And I think the key difference I have with you is how | :44:25. | :44:30. | |
far we would want to go in terms of leaving the single market. There is | :44:31. | :44:38. | |
a case to be made for having an arrangement like the EEA, at least | :44:39. | :44:42. | |
as a first step. The EU is currently not going to be able to sustain | :44:43. | :44:48. | |
itself because of the Eurozone problems. The EEA option is | :44:49. | :44:52. | |
basically the Norway option? Hang on, that involves free movement. So | :44:53. | :44:57. | |
are you saying that we go through all of this and we still are going | :44:58. | :45:01. | |
to have free movement of people at the end, potentially? You are going | :45:02. | :45:06. | |
to have rules which apply to everybody. Within the European | :45:07. | :45:11. | |
Union, within the single market space, if you stay within the single | :45:12. | :45:15. | |
market of the logic is that you have to carry on with some arrangement | :45:16. | :45:19. | |
for free movement of people. Without any control over those rules, that | :45:20. | :45:22. | |
is the problem for the Swiss and the Norwegians. They have no control | :45:23. | :45:29. | |
over the rules. Andrea Leadsom, can you envisage any Out a scenario in | :45:30. | :45:36. | |
which free movement continues as it is? Certainly not where free | :45:37. | :45:44. | |
movement was uncontrollable. Immigration has been a good thing, | :45:45. | :45:46. | |
where it is connected to the skills we need and it is manageable. The | :45:47. | :45:51. | |
problem with immigration has been the uncontrollable volumes of it, | :45:52. | :45:57. | |
with the skills that we do not need. What I'm getting at, is it the | :45:58. | :46:01. | |
position of the Leave campaign, should the voters are shown that we | :46:02. | :46:08. | |
leave the single market in order not to have free movement? I think what | :46:09. | :46:12. | |
voters should think from the leave side is that we would not have | :46:13. | :46:16. | |
uncontrolled immigration. So we would leave the single market? In my | :46:17. | :46:22. | |
opinion, yes, we would. But the trouble is... Are we going to have | :46:23. | :46:27. | |
our cake and eat it? If we leave the single market, yes. We would not | :46:28. | :46:34. | |
have free movement. I think it is possible, look, there is a big | :46:35. | :46:37. | |
omelette here and we will not be able to turn it into 28 ex. That is | :46:38. | :46:43. | |
for sure. We're going to have to negotiate transitional arrangements | :46:44. | :46:45. | |
of some sort and we are going to have to stay in Europe. We are not | :46:46. | :46:50. | |
going to float off to the Pacific somewhere. The real issue is how you | :46:51. | :46:56. | |
go in there with a firm, coherent, step-by-step approach. For me, the | :46:57. | :47:01. | |
main reason for leaving is because I think, I really do think, that the | :47:02. | :47:05. | |
European Union with the Eurozone problem is becoming increasingly | :47:06. | :47:09. | |
risky to stay in. But do you really think that we will be immune from | :47:10. | :47:13. | |
what happens in the Eurozone if we leave the European Union? At least | :47:14. | :47:17. | |
with us being around the table, we have some prospect of actually | :47:18. | :47:21. | |
shaping and influencing what happens in the European Union. And let's not | :47:22. | :47:26. | |
forget, and I say to the voters here, this is the biggest economic | :47:27. | :47:32. | |
block near us. The single market, as it currently is, is our domestic | :47:33. | :47:36. | |
market. If we leave the European Union, all of these big global | :47:37. | :47:40. | |
issues that we have, we are not going to be immune from their | :47:41. | :47:44. | |
impact. Take migration, immigration is what we have been talking about, | :47:45. | :47:48. | |
and how did that start? It started because of instability and problems | :47:49. | :47:51. | |
in the Middle East and growing jihad is in Africa to a lesser extent. | :47:52. | :47:56. | |
That is not going to go away if we leave the European Union. The | :47:57. | :48:00. | |
question is not us being trampled over by European partners, and nine | :48:01. | :48:03. | |
times out of ten when there is a vote on the council, and it is the | :48:04. | :48:07. | |
European Council and Parliament that make the laws, not the commission. | :48:08. | :48:11. | |
When there are votes on that, we are with the majority. In the majority | :48:12. | :48:21. | |
of cases. Nine out of ten times, and we can amplify that. I am a lawyer | :48:22. | :48:28. | |
and I deal with the law. How we amplify British influence, that is | :48:29. | :48:31. | |
what this is about. Where we have protested and gone against, where we | :48:32. | :48:37. | |
have asked for a special deal, we have never yet managed to achieve, I | :48:38. | :48:41. | |
cannot think of a time where we have actually been accepted and agreed | :48:42. | :48:45. | |
with and taken into account. But that is nonsense. Peter Sutherland. | :48:46. | :48:54. | |
First of all that is nonsense, Schengen, Eurozone, there has been a | :48:55. | :49:01. | |
great attempt and there will continue to be a great attempt to | :49:02. | :49:08. | |
accommodate and be as good as we can be in maintaining relationships with | :49:09. | :49:13. | |
the United Kingdom but the bottom line is that the alternatives which | :49:14. | :49:18. | |
were on the programme in the Jonathan Powell extract are the only | :49:19. | :49:24. | |
alternatives and nobody on the Brexit side from the beginning of | :49:25. | :49:31. | |
this debate has been willing to say this is the route we are going to | :49:32. | :49:37. | |
take because they all have huge flaws. We have heard Andrea Leadsom | :49:38. | :49:43. | |
say, willing to give up full membership of the single market as | :49:44. | :49:47. | |
is is currently comprise so that gives us a clear picture. If that is | :49:48. | :49:54. | |
the case it will include almost certainly services being excluded | :49:55. | :50:00. | |
from the internal market. That is 80% of the British economy. I am | :50:01. | :50:08. | |
going to let Katherine in. From the Norwegian point of view the EEA | :50:09. | :50:15. | |
agreement is much better than EU membership but still we in my | :50:16. | :50:22. | |
organisation want to get rid of the EEA agreement. You want to go back | :50:23. | :50:27. | |
down to something else? We want to negotiate and other trade agreement | :50:28. | :50:33. | |
because by the EEA agreement we have to accept a lot of the EU laws and | :50:34. | :50:39. | |
regulations and we want to decide ourselves and I am quite sure that | :50:40. | :50:46. | |
the UK will have the possibility to make a good trade agreement both | :50:47. | :50:51. | |
because you want it and need it and because the EU want it and need it. | :50:52. | :50:57. | |
We have established something very important which is that the dominant | :50:58. | :51:03. | |
view of the Leave containers is exit the single market because that's the | :51:04. | :51:05. | |
only way to get a significant amount of sovereignty back. Ngaire Woods, | :51:06. | :51:14. | |
how damaging or not damaging would that sacrificing full membership of | :51:15. | :51:19. | |
the single market be? The only scenario in which it's not damaging | :51:20. | :51:25. | |
is the scenario where Britain continues to abide by all EU | :51:26. | :51:29. | |
regulation as a venue had to say why leave? It feels to me that at the | :51:30. | :51:33. | |
essence of this is that there is a big part of the Leave campaign which | :51:34. | :51:37. | |
is let's run away from a scary ghost and what is that ghost? That ghost | :51:38. | :51:42. | |
was the European Union which was dreamt up 30 years ago, ever closer | :51:43. | :51:48. | |
union. That is gone, there is no such European Union any more. The | :51:49. | :51:53. | |
European Union has been hugely modified over the last six years. | :51:54. | :51:57. | |
The Eurozone is moving more quickly towards something? I think the | :51:58. | :52:03. | |
Eurozone crisis which began in Greece has put a huge crack, the | :52:04. | :52:10. | |
migration crisis has put a crack through Schengen. There is not a | :52:11. | :52:19. | |
majority of politicians in Europe crying for an ever closer EU any | :52:20. | :52:24. | |
more, that is ten years out of date. This scary ghost people want to run | :52:25. | :52:30. | |
away from simply isn't there. Ngaire that is so not the case. Look at the | :52:31. | :52:37. | |
five Presidents report, they want to synchronise insolvency law, company | :52:38. | :52:40. | |
law, they want to bring in place fiscal union, fiscal transfers from | :52:41. | :52:49. | |
Germany to Greece. How would you deal with banks too big to fail? I | :52:50. | :52:55. | |
will come back to that but an employment in Greece is about 50%, | :52:56. | :53:02. | |
in Italy 38%, for five years. It is destroying a lifetime for those | :53:03. | :53:06. | |
kids. The migration crisis is forcing people to put up barbed wire | :53:07. | :53:11. | |
fences. This is a Schengen area in absolute crisis and there are | :53:12. | :53:15. | |
solution, of the commission, is closer union, you are so wrong if | :53:16. | :53:19. | |
you think it's yesterday's issue. That debate has been well made. An | :53:20. | :53:25. | |
employed people are not crying out for more European Union. -- who | :53:26. | :53:27. | |
employed. I can agree. Bill implied. We have another point, are you | :53:28. | :53:42. | |
worried about the sacrifice of service trade with the EU if we say | :53:43. | :53:47. | |
we will give up the full membership of the single market? We are happy | :53:48. | :53:51. | |
to what a way because then we can control who comes into our country | :53:52. | :53:55. | |
but now our banks for example don't have a passport to operate around | :53:56. | :54:01. | |
the EU? That is a great big red herring. The city is going nowhere. | :54:02. | :54:05. | |
Financial services in the UK employs 2 million people. It is a successful | :54:06. | :54:11. | |
industry which stretches from Aberdeen to Manchester to Birmingham | :54:12. | :54:15. | |
to Bournemouth to Northampton to the city. Canary Wharf is as big as | :54:16. | :54:20. | |
downtown Frankfurt financial services. There is no other | :54:21. | :54:24. | |
financial services Centre in the entire of Europe. We compete with | :54:25. | :54:28. | |
New York, Hong Kong and Singapore. It is going nowhere. The European | :54:29. | :54:35. | |
Union needs access to the UK financial services market, no | :54:36. | :54:39. | |
question. It is amazing that that can be said when the IMF, the | :54:40. | :54:46. | |
governor of the Bank of England, the clear argument that needing a single | :54:47. | :54:52. | |
passport as a financial operator to operate all around Europe is | :54:53. | :54:56. | |
crucial, is crucial to where you operate from. It entitles you to | :54:57. | :55:03. | |
operate across Europe and if you lose it you lose the right to | :55:04. | :55:09. | |
operate. Then you have to open a subsidiary in the European zone. | :55:10. | :55:16. | |
That is a big red herring. But there are disadvantages. There are not | :55:17. | :55:22. | |
actually. But then your subsidiary serving a client import school has | :55:23. | :55:25. | |
to get the agreement of the Portuguese regulator or a Spanish | :55:26. | :55:29. | |
regulator. The regulatory rules are different. They are not very | :55:30. | :55:37. | |
different at all. That is such a red herring, it's not going to stop | :55:38. | :55:42. | |
financial services. We have just learnt in 2008 what happens to an | :55:43. | :55:46. | |
economy if it loses access to wholesale financial markets. If the | :55:47. | :55:50. | |
banking system collapses and stopped lending to each other you have | :55:51. | :55:54. | |
meltdown in the economy. The financial services centre is in the | :55:55. | :55:59. | |
UK, European countries will need to continue to access UK-based | :56:00. | :56:03. | |
financial services. We recognise a lot of the scaremongering from the | :56:04. | :56:11. | |
referendum in 1994 and everything was for us, we did not lose 100,000 | :56:12. | :56:18. | |
jobs, the investment did not dry up. We had a successful economy and we | :56:19. | :56:24. | |
have low and employment so we wish you welcome out. Chuka Umunna, do | :56:25. | :56:34. | |
you think the EU will play hardball with the UK if we leave and if they | :56:35. | :56:40. | |
are going to play hardball does that not say we should be wary about | :56:41. | :56:43. | |
treating these people as our friends, is that an argument for | :56:44. | :56:48. | |
staying because they will be bad to us if we leave? These are not our | :56:49. | :56:54. | |
enemies, they are our friends but I think the idea they would give us a | :56:55. | :56:58. | |
deal, full access to the single market, and ability to shape its | :56:59. | :57:03. | |
rules, not paying to be part of it and having all the benefits, the | :57:04. | :57:07. | |
idea they would give us that kind of deal that they don't even give | :57:08. | :57:11. | |
themselves is for the stars, is for the birds if that's the right | :57:12. | :57:14. | |
expression. I don't see that happening. In the end it's about | :57:15. | :57:21. | |
future generations and ensuring they have access to the opportunities we | :57:22. | :57:26. | |
have had and then some. The simple fact is that the world is different | :57:27. | :57:30. | |
now, it is interconnected and I think we should be self-confident | :57:31. | :57:33. | |
enough to bleed we can continue to do what we have always done very | :57:34. | :57:37. | |
well which is punch above our weight. A lot of the heads of | :57:38. | :57:40. | |
government and ministers I have spoken to in the EU, one of the | :57:41. | :57:44. | |
reasons they worry about the UK leaving is because they recognise | :57:45. | :57:49. | |
the value of our traditional role of leadership within it. Far from being | :57:50. | :57:52. | |
trampled over. You speak to so many people in the EU and they will | :57:53. | :57:56. | |
complain about the exercise of British influence because we shape | :57:57. | :58:00. | |
so much which goes on it. I want to give you the last word Andrea, | :58:01. | :58:03. | |
interesting debate about what it will look like. I have three | :58:04. | :58:10. | |
children, 20, 18 and 12 and the best thing I can say is that my views are | :58:11. | :58:15. | |
all about their future. I believe the future will be brilliant outside | :58:16. | :58:19. | |
of the EU and if we stay with the EU are trade is completely flat-lining | :58:20. | :58:23. | |
and it has done for ten years. They are in a disastrous position and if | :58:24. | :58:27. | |
we leave the future is very bright. Thank you all. That's the last one, | :58:28. | :58:35. | |
panel, you have heard the debate. You are not a scientifically | :58:36. | :58:39. | |
representative panel, you were selected by a polling company, not | :58:40. | :58:44. | |
by us, because you were undecided at the beginning of the six programmes | :58:45. | :58:47. | |
and because you could come in for six programmes! Thank you for that. | :58:48. | :58:55. | |
How many of you are now 100% sure how you will vote, how many have | :58:56. | :59:02. | |
fully made up your mind? How many of you are feeling one way or another? | :59:03. | :59:10. | |
OK. This is the big one, this is not scientific, how many of you would | :59:11. | :59:18. | |
vote Leave? Angela. How many are feeling Remain? Were you genuinely | :59:19. | :59:27. | |
undecided at the beginning of this? That is a great panel! What was | :59:28. | :59:33. | |
going through your mind? I don't want to believe the scaremongering | :59:34. | :59:37. | |
but the economy is in a perilous state at the moment. Recession could | :59:38. | :59:43. | |
be absolutely costly. And the Scottish question, if Britain votes | :59:44. | :59:52. | |
out, could all that open up again? I came here as undecided, leaning | :59:53. | :00:00. | |
towards in but as I listen to the arguments I wanted to move out. But | :00:01. | :00:05. | |
my concern is not for me it is for my family, children and | :00:06. | :00:11. | |
grandchildren. Basically I cannot see any any benefit in leading the | :00:12. | :00:16. | |
EU. It makes us safer, it makes our economy stronger and I can see any | :00:17. | :00:22. | |
of that. In any case I trust my Prime Minister with what he says. We | :00:23. | :00:29. | |
have elected a government and he says and he cannot make anything, | :00:30. | :00:35. | |
make it up. So I put my trust in him and what I hear. A lot of people | :00:36. | :00:40. | |
groaning as you say that! Angela you said you would vote Out, what | :00:41. | :00:48. | |
century that way? I see it as in parliament, governing our own rules, | :00:49. | :00:54. | |
sovereignty. We are a powerful country, we can stand on our two | :00:55. | :01:00. | |
feet and go for it. I have heard some powerful arguments on both | :01:01. | :01:05. | |
sides but I think the way we operate and the way we are, we have had so | :01:06. | :01:13. | |
many negative relationships with some of the directors and the | :01:14. | :01:17. | |
policies which have happened recently that I don't think we are | :01:18. | :01:23. | |
suitable. We need to leave it there, that's all we have time for, thank | :01:24. | :01:28. | |
you to the panel of voters, you have been loyal and stuck with it so | :01:29. | :01:32. | |
thanks to you and thank you to our expert guests and Andrea Leadsom and | :01:33. | :01:36. | |
Chuka Umunna. Emily will be in the chair tomorrow, I will see you on | :01:37. | :01:43. | |
Wednesday. Good night. | :01:44. | :01:50. |