20/05/2016 Newsnight


George Osborne's new EU referendum bombshell, wreckage is found in the hunt for the missing EgyptAir jet, Tory election expenses, and Emily Maitlis talks to Brian Wilson.

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Now on BBC News, it is time for Newsnight with Emily Maitlis.


Tonight - after Isis, the NHS, and creative celebrities -


now house prices become the latest weapon in the EU Referendum debate.


There would be a hit to the value of people's homes of


At the same time mortgages will get more expensive


Have we hit the bottom, or is there more to come?


We talk the politics of panic and preposterous claims.


As French investigators question or staff at Charles de Gaulle Airport


a major multinational search for the missing Egyptian air jet finds


And as the police investigate 29 Tory


Constituencies to look at claims of overspending, we ask what the


Electors are getting increasingly concerned that we are moving back


to the days of the rotten boroughs where a party can buy an election.


And we hear from the Beach Boys' Brian Wilson, as he


Any good politician knows that if you want Middle England to sit up


and listen, sooner or later you have to start talking about house prices.


So tonight, yes, even real estate has become fair


game in the war of words that is the EU referendum debate.


The Chancellor, George Osborne, has claimed that price


of our home will be hit by at least 10% in what he calls the


"profound economic shock" that would result from a vote to leave the EU.


He revealed that the Treasury analysis being carried out on the


short-term economic consequences concludes that by 2018, home owners


Next week the Treasury will publish an announcement of what the


immediate consequence will be. There will be a key to the value of


peoples homes have at least 10% and up to 18%. At the same time


mortgages will get more expensive and mortgage rates will go up. Some


people will say that a price we are saying, I say we are stronger and


better off inside the EU. Our political editor


Nick Watt is here. What do you make


of this intervention, Nick? Let's look at the small print and


then the big print. The big print is that George Osborne


wants us to think that if we left the European Union


our home values would fall by 10%. Let's look at the small print, she


did not say that proper developers could fall coming he said they would


be hit because what those figures mean is that they would fall between


0.6% and 0.8% because they are saying that the Office for


Budget Responsibility says property What he's saying that they will


fall off that percentage. So it is about not rising


rather than falling. We also heard from the Leave side,


Michael Gover making claims about the number of people who


would enter the UK The idea of looking after a new


group of patients equivalent of size to four the size of Birmingham is


unsustainable. That would have huge consequences for the NHS. There


would be a rise in accident and emergency attendances, up to six and


13 million a year, an enormous additional demand on a system


already under pressure. The small print, the Leave believe


that this is one of their trump card -- cards because of the way that


used in European expanded and they say that if four new


Western and Balkan countries join the immigration from those countries


by 2030 would be between 2.7 million and 5


million. The first is that those five


countries will all join in 2020. EU is very keen to get former


Yugoslav republics in because it stabilises that former war zone,


but not keen on getting tricky in. Assumption number two, you don't


impose transitional controls, that is, limiting immigration to


those countries the seven years. The UK did not do it in 2004


although they did it in 2007. If you have transitional controls it


goes down to 2.7. The third assumption, Turkey joining


in 2020, which is highly unlikely. In France they would have to be


a referendum for Turkey to join. Only one country is keen on Turkey


joining and that is the UK, and now that the UK is having to consult


voters they are becoming less keen. Sir John Mills is the chair


of Labour Leave and is also a businessman and has


chaired many housing committees. I'm going to start by looking


at this idea that George Osborne raises, that a Brexit will massively


affect the price of our homes. To be honest,


of all the threats to the British economy Brexit is relatively small,


if a threat at all, compared to what is happening in China and


in Greece and potentially in Italy. Would you accept short-term that


there could be profound economic shocks,


which could hit the housing market? I am not sure that I buy the idea


of a profound economic shock. I think life will go on much


as it was before after Brexit. They will keep on creeping up, if


anything, because of demand exceeding supply,


but the chance of an enormous reduction but even if there was I


am not so sure that this is such a bad thing anyway because prices are


very high in the housing market. Let me ask you if honestly hand


on heart you would tell apart some -- tear apart some of the wider


claims on your side. We have heard Michael Gove


suggesting that net immigration could swell to another five million


if we stay, putting I do think it is likely that


immigration will go up. A lower figure than


the one they quote yet still a lot, if we have a living wage of ?5 an


hour which is more than twice what So, as a Labour figure, would you


say that price is too high, that ?9? No, there is a lot to be said


for a living wage but it will also attract people in from the


continent, particularly if there are very high


levels of unemployment continuing. And he used this strong phrase,


that it would put the NHS Sounds like it would spell the


end of the NHS if we stayed in. There is a big problem


because we don't spend nearly enough because of our rising population on


new hospitals, schools and roads. That is why there is a bit


of a crisis in all these areas. you would sit on a very different


side to Michael Gove. Is your version of Out the same


as his, would you want to be on You'd say that's the right way to


go? I think there is something to be


said for doing that because to control our borders we have to be


outside the single market but it You don't have to be in


the single market to sell to bed. He said


we would be another Albania, does There's


a new treaty coming with Canada. It did take a long time, but we're


there and that seems a more I wonder if you feel happy, though,


with the way that the Vote Leave You don't agree with that figure


of 5 million new immigrants. You clearly don't agree that the NHS


would collapse under this sort Is this helping your side to hear


those sorts of claims I think there has been a


fair bit of hyperbole on both sides You are much better off sticking to


figures that people find credible and there is plenty of data


around which is very important in this debate and I don't think you


need to gild the lily to make the At the beginning of the week David


Cameron was invoking Remain as a vote for ISIS. In between, actors


popped up to reassure us that Britain would be more creative as


part of the EU and Michael Gove suggested immigration could grow by


another 5 million if we stayed in, as you have just been hearing. And


the NHS would be under unsustainable pressure. Is anything sacred in this


debate? Erie is the former adviser to Nick Clegg and a political


columnist for the Daily Mail. Nice to see you. I wonder, Peter, if you


look at the polls that seem now to put Remain with this ten point lead


whether you think they have on the economic argument that was at the


heart of all of this? I don't think so. I wouldn't say they have won it.


I wouldn't be in favour of Leave if I thought the economic argued that


was right. There are divisions. It hasn't been done very well and they


need to sort themselves out in the three or five weeks that are left.


So you think they can heal those divisions and how would they do


that? I think the remain campaign has been very well run. There's been


a consistent message. Whereas the Leave campaign, there are couple of


lots... And the Labour lot. Yes. And they are saying different things.


For me it is pretty obvious that we would flourish outside of the EU.


When I introduced you I spoke about the weeks starting with this idea of


ISIS, welcoming Brexit, and homeowners seeing prices tumble by


80%. It is all rather apocalyptic on the remain macro side? By the


ditties on both sides. -- Remain. On the one hand you have terrifying


predictions about the NHS and people practically dying on the streets. On


the other side with all practically be homeless, although it is the


first thing I heard that might persuade me to vote Leave, that


homes might become more affordable. At it goes on to say that mortgage


rates will go up a master which is a recession as opposed to a cheaper


housing market. I am still persuaded that we should vote In, but I am not


looking to politicians to provide me with facts about the future. It is


impossible to know. In the end is in the end is it is -- it is about an


assessment of risk and possibility. Do you think we have run this the


wrong way? We keep asking politicians what Out looks like.


There are of course six different ways it could look like. You say


from inside that you don't think politicians can provide those facts.


So was there another way of tailoring this debate? Away from


preposterous argument? Of course. There are quite good fact check


outfits. But it doesn't stop people repeating the thing that they want


to repeat. I think that curiously enough to Leave campaign have been


more responsible. If you look at the inflammatory stuff from the Prime


Minister, he invokes the caliphate of IS, I mean this is bullocks. He


is invoking world war three. He is taking leave of his senses. When Mr


Johnson, Boris Johnson, provides alerted observation... -- a good


observation. The second Napoleon, there have been numerous attempts.


But if you look at the response from Lord Heseltine or others, sensible


remarks by Boris Johnson, they are fanatical. It goes back to a


technique used... I did a pamphlet called Guilty Men about the campaign


to keep us in the euro. Out there there are extremists, that was the


line. Do you think that's true? Being In is quiet and nice? Is that


how it has been played? I think what Peter is describing his politics.


People do speak in exaggerated tones and they do make a case with these


hyperbolic suggestions and implications about the future. It


has always been thus. If you look at the referendum there were claims


that babies would die if we voted for OV. Do you quietly by the


north-east when you hear David Cameron saying that without the EU


there would be war or ISIS want us to leave? Or do you say fair game?


It is what you expect. They have to speak in simplistic terms because


the amount of time people will spend thinking about this in the end is


quite limited and they do look to politicians to do a lot of the


macro... Most students cannot even name


the date of the EU referendum, do you still think at the end


of this that politicians are talking to themselves in a tiny


circle or is it reaching out? This is an important debate,


but I do repeat, the main case, particularly the Prime Minister,


he's being reckless, making absurd statements, but I reckon the leave


lot are being much more responsible. What you are trying to say


in his studio, there is the awful lot on the one hand and awful


on the other, but the BBC is part of the problem, you are playing


it up. The Hitler story about Boris, which


is a constructed story. What was the thing that you didn't


like that I asked you about? What you are doing, creating


a forced dichotomy between one lot of people telling lies and another


a lot of people telling lies. The people telling the worst lies


are David Cameron, George Osborne, Let's not pretend that you


are impartial, by the way. You inflame the Hitler analogy


and you turned that into a story. Would you


like to have the last word? When people are biased like Peter


and myself, we listen to politicians and we assume the people that we


like our telling the truth and the people we don't like are not telling


the truth, that is hard-wired into our brains


and Peter has lost touch with that. To say that Isis are supporting the


remain campaign, perfectly normal? There is a basic level of public


debate which the remain side are At the risk of sounding biased,


that is it. French aviation investigators are


understood to have begun checking and questioning all ground staff


at the Charles De Gaulle airport in Paris who had either


a direct or an indirect link to The flight crashed


into the Mediterranean just 20 minutes before it was due to land,


killing all 66 on board. Investigators are pouring over the


list of the plane's passengers and crew to look for a criminal record


or ties to terror watch lists. So far, nothing has come to light


that directly connects this Gabriel Gatehouse is in Paris


and sent this report. More than 24 hours


after it crashed, the first bits Investigators say they have


recovered objects including luggage and human remains,


belonging to passengers aboard EgyptAir flight 804, but they


haven't yet found the crucial black box


flight data recorders. The search and recovery operation


which is led by Egypt is for the moment focused on a relatively small


area, 40 miles in radius, just under But the longer the search goes on,


the wider they need to look, as the current carries the bits of mangled


wreckage in different directions. The Airbus A320 that disappeared


yesterday had previously made an emergency landing, in 2013, while


en route from Cairo to Istanbul. The pilot noticed one


of the engines was overheating The problem was said


to have been fixed. The Egyptian authorities have said


they believe terrorism is the most likely cause


although they have offered no Here in France, ministers have


appealed for caution, saying they TRANSLATION: All hypotheses


are being examined. There is no specific one being


favoured because we have had no indication of the cause of the


accident as yet, and we are still France has sent three


investigators from its Air Accident But there is another investigation


going on here at home. At Charles de Gaulle airport today,


the usual security checks. This is already a country under


a state of emergency. The investigation here is focusing


on the question of whether anyone could have planted


a bomb on board in Paris. A police source has told Newsnight


that they are now pouring over hours The focus


of the investigation is to try and trace the movement of everyone


who had access to that plane. That means not just passengers


and crew, but ground staff, as well, baggage handlers,


technicians, catering staff. For what it's worth,


the source added that they thought it was unlikely that


a bomb could have been smuggled on board in Paris because of enhanced


security measures already in place. European security officials have


told the Associated Press news agency that they have checked


the list of passengers and crew who boarded the flight in Paris and none


was on any terror watch list. In Cairo, people gathered this


afternoon to pray For now, we are still no closer


to discovering why EgyptAir flight 804 dropped out of the sky in the


early hours of yesterday morning. Police are investigating a number


of Tory held constituencies over allegations they broke


their local spending rules An investigation by Channel 4 News


has questioned whether the Conservative party declared


expenses centrally - instead of locally - which would have taken


them over agreed spending limits. So what difference would it make


if it were found to be illegal? In other words,


is it beaurocratic nitpicking, In the 18th century, elections


were filthy, corrupt affairs. This is the 1754 contest


from the paintbrush of William Hogarth. There is bribing voters,


mob violence and widespread fraud. Modern election rules were


supposed to stop all this. Electors are getting increasingly


concerned that we're moving back to the days of the rotten boroughs


where a party can buy an election. I don't think as an election lawyer


I could put my hand on my heart and say for the last 15-20 years


we've had a copper-bottom guarantee that


we've got free and fair elections I think we're losing


that guarantee. OK, so I don't think they had battle


buses in Hogarth's day. But Conservatives are accused


of driving a coach, if not horses, The story was broken


and developed in the past three To make sense of this story you have


to realise there are two different The first is local,


constituency spending limits. Here, roughly,


a candidate can spend a maximum of It varies depending on the number


of electors and the type of seats. However, there is also


a national limit on what parties can Assuming they are contesting every


seat in the election, which none of them do, they could spend


a maximum of ?19.5 million in the 12 However, these are separate types


of spending. One is local on local constituency


campaigning, and the other is Local spending limits were never


much of a problem because the parties had armies


of volunteers to tramp But since 2005 half of Tory


activists have left the party. The Tories were targeting 100


key seats at the election. In many of those seats they did not


have the party members on So what they decided to do was build


up a big activist base of volunteers who were signed up


through the party centrally and then to move them in buses to the area


where they were needed most. At the last general election


the Conservatives had five buses ferrying volunteers


into target seats. Here is one arriving


in the target seat of Thanet South. Then party chairman Grant Shapps was


desperate to defeat Nigel Farage who Let's get out there


and let's get campaigning. It is clear they have come to help


the Conservative candidate You will be working with


a good number of our locals. But unlike those locals,


all the bussed in campaigners needed transport,


feeding and a place to stay. In order to get people to turn out


and campaign you have to make it If you give them food,


say a free curry at the end of the day, and a beer, and encourage them


to have a bit of fun together, you Channel 4 uncovered thousands


of pounds worth of receipts on hotels and food for campaigners


in target seats like Thanet South. None of which was recorded


against local candidate spending. Gavin Miller QC is a specialist


in election law and a former Labour What the law looks at is


the end product of that work which has been done and then it looks back


to see how you have funded it. So if the work that is being done


by those campaigners is with the aim of promoting or procuring the


particular election of a particular candidate in a constituency,


the Labour candidate, the Liberal candidate, the Tory candidate,


whoever it may be, if money is spent getting them there and locating them


there to enable them to do that work, transport costs, subsistence,


that is an election expense. We asked Craig McKinley,


now Conservative MP for He referred us to the


Conservative Party press office who If it is a mistake,


it is because the rules are not being implicit enough


about where the costing should go. And is it a mistake if it is that,


unique to the Conservatives? What we are seeing,


there is a conspiracy of silence in the other parties


because they are all culpable. If there is a mistake being made,


all the parties have made it and it does not seem fair that only


Conservative MPs have been singled Labour also took activists to key


seats using a bus they called The main difference with the


Conservative operation seems to be that it was far smaller, and since


Labour did not win many target seats, there are not many Labour MPs


who are liable to legal challenge. I think since we introduced national


spending limits it has given an excuse, a cover, to the national


parties, where they have the money and can identify a particular


constituency that is one of their marginals or one they want to win,


where they need a little extra help, to spend money


in that constituency and apportion Labour also declined our request


for an interview and gave us The Lib Dems completely reject the


idea that they bussed in activists. It is frustrating that


the Conservatives are now trying to say that the leaders bus which each


of the parties has and has always been deemed to be national expense,


equates to the five battle buses that the Conservatives ran,


crammed full of activists often because their own local activists


were too old and not coming out. Bussed in to seat after seat


after seat, week after week, during the campaign, where they were going


in to canvas and deliver leaflets, do the things you would expect


for a particular local candidate. Fiona Jones arrived at the criminal


court to face a criminal charge... The penalties for misreporting


your election spending are severe. In 1999 Labour MP Fiona Jones was


convicted and immediately barred from public office, although the


verdict was overturned on appeal. A dozen police forces are now


investigating and Whatever happens next,


it's a shame we don't have Hogarth That's all we have time


for this evening. Before, we introduce you to No


Such Thing as the News, a brand new series from the QI Elves with


their own curious take on the week. Coming up next we have Artsnight


which features the author We play you out tonight with


Beach Boys legend Brian Wilson. I grabbed a couple


of words with him before the first show of his Pet Sounds tour tonight


at the London Palladium. # Round, round, get around,


I get around... # Tell the teacher we're


surfing # Wouldn't it be nice if we could


wake up... I wanted to make


an album that was just about as good as Rubber Soul, so we did it


with my friend Tony Asher. We wrote God Only Knows and then


we wrote the rest of the album. And Rubber Soul made such an impact


on you, I wonder if you can take us When I heard it it was November


1965. I was so blown away,


it blew me away so much that I made What was the song,


do you remember the song that you # I sat on the rug,


drinking her wine And what was the sense at that


moment, that you wanted to take away from it and create Pet Sounds, was


there an emotion or a melody? A melody, a melody was


the first thing I heard. After it was released,


you heard from Paul McCartney. Paul McCartney said God Only Knows


was the greatest song ever written. # God only knows what I'd be without


# Though life would still go on, believe me


# The world could show nothing to me


# So what good would living do me?


# God only knows what I'd be without you


# God only knows what I'd do without you... #


Hello and welcome to Sportsday on BBC News.


James Anderson is the star with five wickets as England take control of


George Osborne's new EU referendum bombshell, wreckage is found in the hunt for the missing EgyptAir jet, Tory election expenses, and Emily Maitlis talks to Beach Boys legend Brian Wilson.

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