Browse content similar to 20/06/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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We've heard a lot about what we think, so what does | :00:10. | :00:12. | |
There will maximum be two years to negotiate. It could be done quicker. | :00:13. | :00:23. | |
I would be in favour of a very quick solution to this. | :00:24. | :00:27. | |
Brussels won't be happy if we take the Tippex to Heath's signature. | :00:28. | :00:29. | |
We'll look at what happens on Friday, if we do. | :00:30. | :00:32. | |
Former Tory leader, and Brexiteer, Michael Howard will take us | :00:33. | :00:34. | |
Also tonight, we take our referendum truck to Bognor Regis, | :00:35. | :00:39. | |
Is it a problem if you guys take us out, and the young wanted to be in? | :00:40. | :00:45. | |
I'm thinking beyond the next five or ten years, which I don't think | :00:46. | :00:49. | |
the politicians are, and I'm thinking for my grandchildren. | :00:50. | :01:01. | |
And more to the point, they will know, too. | :01:02. | :01:05. | |
The rest of the EU will find out what has hit it. | :01:06. | :01:08. | |
The first meeting of the European Council is a week tomorrow. | :01:09. | :01:11. | |
That's when the European reaction will be crystallised. | :01:12. | :01:15. | |
If we vote to leave, they'll have a lot to talk about. | :01:16. | :01:19. | |
Could it even be that the other 27 leaders meet ahead of time, | :01:20. | :01:24. | |
or ask David Cameron to take a short walk, while they work out | :01:25. | :01:27. | |
The big question in the event of Brexit is what the new UK-EU | :01:28. | :01:32. | |
Then there's a smaller, tactical question, too; | :01:33. | :01:38. | |
do we invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty? | :01:39. | :01:40. | |
Article 50 provides for a nation to leave the EU. | :01:41. | :01:43. | |
It gives us a system to negotiate our way out. | :01:44. | :01:46. | |
But it imposes a time limit, too, that may not be very helpful | :01:47. | :01:49. | |
Our diplomatic editor Mark Urban has been visiting European capitals, | :01:50. | :01:54. | |
to get the view of Brexit from there. | :01:55. | :02:13. | |
Across Europe, the ministers and bureaucrats are thinking the | :02:14. | :02:23. | |
unthinkable. A British exit from the EU may be imminent. We've been | :02:24. | :02:27. | |
travelling through some key countries in northern Europe, trying | :02:28. | :02:31. | |
to get a handle on how they'd deal with it, what arguments they might | :02:32. | :02:32. | |
deploy in talks. In Denmark, they know about saying | :02:33. | :02:48. | |
no to the EU. Denmark's vote against the Maastricht Treaty 24 years ago | :02:49. | :02:52. | |
is just one example of when a referendum has derailed EU plans, | :02:53. | :02:57. | |
and what has tended to happen in the past is that the commission has gone | :02:58. | :03:00. | |
back to the drawing board and crafted a new offer. So the first | :03:01. | :03:04. | |
dilemma that other European countries would face if Britain | :03:05. | :03:07. | |
voted for Brexit is whether to offer a better deal to the UK. Former | :03:08. | :03:16. | |
members of the commission, the EU civil service, suggest it would be | :03:17. | :03:19. | |
hard to come up with further concessions for the UK. With all the | :03:20. | :03:27. | |
challenges now, will the economic situation in Europe, will Russia and | :03:28. | :03:32. | |
Putin, with the security issues, with terrorism, and immigrants, they | :03:33. | :03:36. | |
would not be a lot of appetite to spend too much time on finding these | :03:37. | :03:41. | |
solutions. Remember, the other thing, that they gave Britain, | :03:42. | :03:45. | |
basically, what the British government asked for. They think | :03:46. | :03:51. | |
they have been forthcoming already. So I just think it is still | :03:52. | :03:57. | |
extremely risky, what could happen after there would be a no. | :03:58. | :04:02. | |
Underlying all talks would be a fear of other nations trying to get their | :04:03. | :04:07. | |
own bespoke deals. I think first of all the commission would try to | :04:08. | :04:11. | |
avoid precedents, they certainly would not support a solution which | :04:12. | :04:17. | |
could create appetite for other member states to follow the British | :04:18. | :04:27. | |
example. For that reason, many European politicians feel further | :04:28. | :04:30. | |
concessions after Britain's vote would be pointless, and argue that | :04:31. | :04:37. | |
27 would want to move swiftly and to Britain's exit talks. In principle, | :04:38. | :04:44. | |
I would say that there should be no doubt that a No vote, that is a vote | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
to leave the EU, should be respected. And, after that, I also | :04:50. | :04:58. | |
think that we should go for a quick decision, according to the EU | :04:59. | :05:03. | |
treaty, there will maximum be two years to negotiate. It could be done | :05:04. | :05:09. | |
quicker. I would be in favour of a very quick solution to this. The | :05:10. | :05:16. | |
Sicilian Hof Palace was built in an English style a century ago. It is | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
located in Potsdam in Germany. Allied leaders met here after the | :05:23. | :05:27. | |
Second World War to shape the peace come and to prevent Germany from | :05:28. | :05:31. | |
rising again to military domination of Europe. The summit that would | :05:32. | :05:38. | |
follow a Brexit, inevitably nations would take different positions. | :05:39. | :05:42. | |
European politicians tell us the French the Italians and possibly the | :05:43. | :05:47. | |
Spanish could be expected to want the toughest possible terms for | :05:48. | :05:50. | |
Britain. The Scandinavians and Dutch, on the other hand, would want | :05:51. | :05:57. | |
to be as reasonable as they could. And in between, synthesising those | :05:58. | :06:00. | |
different positions, and providing leadership, as in so many recent | :06:01. | :06:05. | |
crises for the EU, would be Chancellor Merkel's Germany. Germany | :06:06. | :06:14. | |
will be very exposed in the EU, and Germany will get more or less | :06:15. | :06:22. | |
automatically the only leadership fall. Germany will be whether | :06:23. | :06:26. | |
Germany wants it or not, and we can tell you Germany doesn't want it, | :06:27. | :06:31. | |
they will have to accent leadership in the European Union, and I'm not | :06:32. | :06:38. | |
sure, but if this is something that the British would clearly want. | :06:39. | :06:45. | |
Contagion, euro scepticism, is present in Germany of course. The | :06:46. | :06:49. | |
AFD, or all turn it for Germany party has been eating into the | :06:50. | :06:55. | |
Chancellor's vote of late. -- alternative for Germany. The leader | :06:56. | :06:58. | |
would rather Britain stays in to fight for reform and believes the | :06:59. | :07:02. | |
project is in serious trouble. We have already seen that projects on | :07:03. | :07:06. | |
the integration have failed, for example the euro. As attempts to | :07:07. | :07:13. | |
have a common migration policy, or turn at off common social policies. | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
So whatever the EU commission does, we will see that the problems will | :07:18. | :07:22. | |
become even more evident on a European level, and therefore I | :07:23. | :07:25. | |
think with Britain or without Britain, the EU will have to change. | :07:26. | :07:35. | |
This is the where the -- the Bundesrat, where the leaders of | :07:36. | :07:42. | |
Germany's states meet. What strategy with a advocate? If the views of | :07:43. | :07:47. | |
Chancellor Merkel's president are anything to go by, even single | :07:48. | :07:54. | |
market access on Swiss or Norwegian terms must be ruled out for Britain. | :07:55. | :08:14. | |
Another minister president from Angela Merkel's party, though, took | :08:15. | :08:20. | |
a more moderate line, arguing a way would have to be found to create a | :08:21. | :08:22. | |
new relationship. In Berlin's fortress-like | :08:23. | :08:41. | |
chancellery, Angela Merkel would have two balance those different use | :08:42. | :08:48. | |
within her party and within the EU. Just how hard a bargain to drive, | :08:49. | :08:52. | |
how far to protect German markets in the UK, this is prioritising the | :08:53. | :08:58. | |
survival of the EU project as a whole. Germany has an interest to | :08:59. | :09:05. | |
show all the other Eurosceptics, let's say maybe parts of Denmark, | :09:06. | :09:16. | |
the Netherlands, maybe the Poles, that they have something to lose. | :09:17. | :09:22. | |
That is why they have to be tough on Britain, after the article 50 is | :09:23. | :09:26. | |
involved. It might seem like the most rigid diplomacy imaginable, | :09:27. | :09:30. | |
stay in or we will make an example of you. But today there are many | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
here, and elsewhere in Europe, who insist they are in earnest. Mark | :09:36. | :09:40. | |
Urban there. Well, most of the other | :09:41. | :09:41. | |
Europeans hope the Brexit One person who hopes it | :09:42. | :09:43. | |
will is Michael Howard, former Home Secretary and former | :09:44. | :09:47. | |
leader of the Conservative Party. Now Lord Howard. A very good evening | :09:48. | :09:56. | |
to you. First of all, do you think if we vote for Brexit on Thursday, | :09:57. | :10:00. | |
as I think you once said, it's worth pausing for a month to see if a | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
better offer comes along, remaining in the EU, and then we maybe have a | :10:06. | :10:09. | |
second referendum and discuss whether the new terms are | :10:10. | :10:12. | |
acceptable? I think there's something to be said for that. I | :10:13. | :10:16. | |
don't think we would make any approach, we would have voted to | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
leave, but if the Europeans came forward with some other offer, which | :10:21. | :10:25. | |
looked credible, I personally would be prepared to talk to them about | :10:26. | :10:30. | |
it. Even though we have just voted to leave, and it is OK, guys, you | :10:31. | :10:36. | |
can stay in? It depends on what terms. What would it need to be for | :10:37. | :10:40. | |
a Prime Minister to go back to a country and say look, let's do it | :10:41. | :10:45. | |
all again? Look, it might not happen, and it would be up to them. | :10:46. | :10:50. | |
It would need to be a fundamental and far-reaching reform, which David | :10:51. | :10:53. | |
Cameron originally asked for in his speech. But that's not going to | :10:54. | :10:58. | |
happen. If that's not bad to happen, there would be no point in talking. | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
On Friday, fuming that doesn't happen, and maybe you want to wait a | :11:03. | :11:07. | |
few days, -- assuming, do you invoke article 50? I am not in charge, but | :11:08. | :11:14. | |
I think that is the logical thing to do. I agree with Mr Rasmussen, who | :11:15. | :11:20. | |
thought it would be a rather quick negotiation. He is wrong when he | :11:21. | :11:25. | |
says there is a two-year limit. It can be extended. By unanimity. It is | :11:26. | :11:32. | |
Germany who calls the shots, and forgot to two years and Angela | :11:33. | :11:35. | |
Merkel were still in office and wanted it extended, it would jolly | :11:36. | :11:39. | |
well be standard. Tell us why someone on your side of this are | :11:40. | :11:43. | |
keen not to invoke article 50 very quickly, because the official Leave | :11:44. | :11:48. | |
campaign is we don't need to do that for a while, we can sit and light a | :11:49. | :11:56. | |
cigar. I agree with the tours. Some are even saying, John Redwood has | :11:57. | :11:59. | |
told this programme this afternoon, you don't ever have to invoke | :12:00. | :12:06. | |
Article 50. Why do it? That is to respect the Treaty of Lisbon which | :12:07. | :12:11. | |
others would reject. I have told you what I would think would happen. So | :12:12. | :12:17. | |
we invoke article 50 at a reasonable price? Yes. And it doesn't bother | :12:18. | :12:21. | |
you that the clock is ticking against us and they could string it | :12:22. | :12:25. | |
out, we get a worse deal? What we have got to get it into our heads is | :12:26. | :12:30. | |
that we will not be supplicants. We are the fifth biggest economy in the | :12:31. | :12:34. | |
world, they sell us what much more than we sell them, they will not | :12:35. | :12:43. | |
what of their nose to spite their face. Your specific concern, the | :12:44. | :12:48. | |
reason you feel so strongly, is about the sovereignty of Parliament, | :12:49. | :12:52. | |
and the court of the European court of justice back and tell Parliament | :12:53. | :12:55. | |
what it is able to do and not. And it is about to do that. I think | :12:56. | :13:00. | |
Thursday may be our last chance to vote for a democratic self-governing | :13:01. | :13:04. | |
country. People don't understand that the European court of justice | :13:05. | :13:08. | |
now has the power to overrule Acts of Parliament. It has already | :13:09. | :13:15. | |
overruled an act of the Scottish parliament, the first act, actually, | :13:16. | :13:18. | |
passed by the SNP when it got a majority in the Scottish Parliament, | :13:19. | :13:23. | |
and an act that was passed by our Parliament in 2014, which the Home | :13:24. | :13:27. | |
Secretary said was critical to protecting children, fighting | :13:28. | :13:30. | |
terrorism and commenting crime, is coming before the European court of | :13:31. | :13:33. | |
justice, of course not before Thursday, but in a few weeks' time, | :13:34. | :13:39. | |
and they would be perfectly entitled, as things stand, to strike | :13:40. | :13:43. | |
it out, to overrule it. And you know, Evan, there was a passage in | :13:44. | :13:47. | |
the Queen's speech, which said the government pledges to uphold the | :13:48. | :13:52. | |
sovereignty of Parliament, and the primacy of the House of Commons. | :13:53. | :13:57. | |
Those words are not worth the paper they are written on as long as we | :13:58. | :14:01. | |
remain members of the European Union. Right, and that's because if | :14:02. | :14:06. | |
you join a club like that, somebody has to be the final arbiter between | :14:07. | :14:10. | |
whether you have obeyed the rules of the club or not. The keywords are if | :14:11. | :14:16. | |
you join a club like that. I quite agree, if you have a club that is | :14:17. | :14:20. | |
limited to economic issues, trade issues, you have to have some | :14:21. | :14:23. | |
adjudication on the trade issues, but the Charter of fundamental human | :14:24. | :14:26. | |
rights goes far, far beyond that, and they can override practically | :14:27. | :14:32. | |
anything our Parliament would pass. I understand the point you are | :14:33. | :14:35. | |
making, there are many on your side of the debate to say letters not | :14:36. | :14:41. | |
wait for the two years to be up, or the four years to be up while we in | :14:42. | :14:46. | |
the go shoot our exit from the EU. If we vote leave, we need to pass a | :14:47. | :14:51. | |
bill amending the European Community 's act of 1972, where Ted Heath got | :14:52. | :14:56. | |
a sin. We need to amend that Bill to stop the European court of justice | :14:57. | :15:00. | |
for example being able to tell us whether we have our Data Protection | :15:01. | :15:06. | |
Act or not, our data use act or not. Do you believe we should change the | :15:07. | :15:11. | |
law before we have negotiated our exit, or should we wait until we | :15:12. | :15:15. | |
finally have agreed an exit. We might well have to do that. Do what? | :15:16. | :15:21. | |
We might well have to legislate before the end of the negotiation. | :15:22. | :15:26. | |
Suppose you had a two-year period and then it was extended and so on, | :15:27. | :15:29. | |
we are not going to wait forever, not going to wait for four years | :15:30. | :15:33. | |
before making it clear that our Parliament is supreme. If the | :15:34. | :15:36. | |
negotiation is a quick thing, and it should be, there is a food trade | :15:37. | :15:41. | |
area from Iceland to Turkey, so the obvious solution would be let's have | :15:42. | :15:42. | |
a free trade area. You are contemplating passing a law, | :15:43. | :15:51. | |
Parliament passing a bill, in breach of our treaty obligations. If that | :15:52. | :15:55. | |
is necessary I would support it. Is this meant to be a way to a | :15:56. | :16:00. | |
harmonious separation from the EU? Will this lead to them being well | :16:01. | :16:06. | |
disposed to giving us a good deal? I don't think it would be necessary, | :16:07. | :16:09. | |
if they want a harmonious relationship which they should do | :16:10. | :16:13. | |
and we should do, it was Jack Delors who said if the United Kingdom | :16:14. | :16:18. | |
doesn't want to agree to further European integration we should have | :16:19. | :16:20. | |
a different relationship with them, a friendly relationship. How long do | :16:21. | :16:27. | |
we give them before we start passing laws that basically unilaterally | :16:28. | :16:30. | |
say, stuff you, we are not part of your club anymore and we will not | :16:31. | :16:34. | |
negotiate? First of all, I will not be in charge. But you are providing | :16:35. | :16:40. | |
guidance. It would be ridiculous to set out arbitrary deadlines. It is | :16:41. | :16:44. | |
the official policy of Vote Leave that we should do this very quickly | :16:45. | :16:48. | |
after we leave, not waiting two years, within weeks we should say, | :16:49. | :16:55. | |
sorry guys, the European Court will not be telling us what to do. I'm | :16:56. | :16:59. | |
happy with that because I have a fundamental objection to the | :17:00. | :17:01. | |
European Court telling us what to do, it is fundamentally undemocratic | :17:02. | :17:05. | |
and we never signed up to that. Tony Blair promised us that the Charter | :17:06. | :17:09. | |
of fundamental rights did not apply to us, we never signed up to it, | :17:10. | :17:13. | |
that's the point! So you are happy with a position as Vote Leave has | :17:14. | :17:16. | |
suggested that we pass laws in breach of the our treaty | :17:17. | :17:21. | |
obligations, if you like, without having negotiated? If I have to do | :17:22. | :17:27. | |
that, yes, but I'm in favour of a quick negotiation as Mr Rasmussen | :17:28. | :17:32. | |
intimated and its possible and desirable. My understanding is Vote | :17:33. | :17:38. | |
Leave want to do it not given the EU 18 months, or two years, to sort it | :17:39. | :17:42. | |
out, they want to do it in a few weeks. There is no way we will sort | :17:43. | :17:45. | |
it out in three or four weeks, that spy in the sky. If we need to make | :17:46. | :17:51. | |
it clear that we are a self-governing Parliamentary | :17:52. | :17:54. | |
democracy and we need to pass legislation to achieve that we | :17:55. | :17:59. | |
should do it. That is our birthright, our heritage, our | :18:00. | :18:02. | |
tradition, and something we have a last chance to recover on Thursday. | :18:03. | :18:07. | |
Lord Howard, thank you very much. Thank you. | :18:08. | :18:09. | |
One striking development in the last few days - big | :18:10. | :18:13. | |
movements in the markets, apparently predicting that the odds | :18:14. | :18:15. | |
The pound has soared, the FTSE had its best | :18:16. | :18:19. | |
day for four months, and the bookies' odds have shifted. | :18:20. | :18:21. | |
The betting market had put the chance of a Brexit win above 40% | :18:22. | :18:25. | |
Yesterday, Brexit was seen as having a 33% | :18:26. | :18:28. | |
A couple of polls tonight putting Remain ahead. | :18:29. | :18:37. | |
Something has changed, it could be a late swing | :18:38. | :18:40. | |
to the status quo, that is something we often see. | :18:41. | :18:44. | |
But, obviously, it could also be a Jo Cox effect. | :18:45. | :18:47. | |
For a fifth day today, the campaign has been | :18:48. | :18:49. | |
affected by her death, with Parliament recalled, | :18:50. | :18:51. | |
to hear moving tributes from her colleagues. | :18:52. | :18:53. | |
Just before we came on air, I spoke to Professor John Curtice. | :18:54. | :19:00. | |
He is a pollster and I began by asking him the current state of play | :19:01. | :19:04. | |
in the referendum. It is perhaps worth reminding | :19:05. | :19:05. | |
ourselves where we seemed to be towards the end of last week before | :19:06. | :19:08. | |
the tragic murder of Jo Cox. We had just seen a whole sequence | :19:09. | :19:11. | |
of opinion polls that were the worst figures for Remain and the best | :19:12. | :19:15. | |
figures for Leave at any stage And for the first time perhaps | :19:16. | :19:17. | |
a real prospect that Remain were, on the consensus | :19:18. | :19:21. | |
of the opinion polls, behind. Then at the weekend we saw the polls | :19:22. | :19:23. | |
move back again to some degree, though even then the polls | :19:24. | :19:27. | |
being done over the Internet said it was a 50-50 call, | :19:28. | :19:29. | |
which is what they've been saying And we had one telephone | :19:30. | :19:32. | |
poll putting the Remain Tonight we have two more polls, | :19:33. | :19:35. | |
one Internet poll from YouGov, Another one from ORB, | :19:36. | :19:39. | |
a phone poll, depending a bit on how you interpret it, | :19:40. | :19:45. | |
but again it looks like So we are frankly looking | :19:46. | :19:48. | |
at a referendum which is still extraordinarily tight but maybe not | :19:49. | :19:54. | |
quite so bad for Remain as it looked So, the markets, the prediction | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
markets, the bookies, basically, thinking it is a 25% | :19:59. | :20:04. | |
chance of Brexit now, which has diminished | :20:05. | :20:06. | |
very, very rapidly. I think the truth is that they are | :20:07. | :20:07. | |
now seriously underestimating Given that most of the recent | :20:08. | :20:18. | |
opinion polls we have been having are saying it is somewhere | :20:19. | :20:25. | |
between maybe 49% for Remain and about 52% for Remain, | :20:26. | :20:28. | |
I would suggest something like 40-45% would be a more serious | :20:29. | :20:30. | |
and sensible probability for the prospect of | :20:31. | :20:32. | |
Leave at this juncture. Clearly something has changed | :20:33. | :20:40. | |
from the worst polls that Because, people were saying that | :20:41. | :20:42. | |
maybe there will be a late I think the truth is it's impossible | :20:43. | :20:55. | |
to tell whether there There is nothing directly in | :20:56. | :21:00. | |
the opinion polls to support that. Maybe there has been a little bit | :21:01. | :21:03. | |
of movement back towards Remain, but perhaps we shouldn't also simply | :21:04. | :21:06. | |
discount the most boring hypothesis which is that maybe last week | :21:07. | :21:16. | |
the polls happened all to slightly exaggerate Leave's position and that | :21:17. | :21:19. | |
maybe not a great deal has ever happened at all, | :21:20. | :21:21. | |
although I think in truth probably Remain's position still looks | :21:22. | :21:24. | |
somewhat weaker than it did certainly before we got | :21:25. | :21:26. | |
into the pre-election Since then, if you look | :21:27. | :21:28. | |
across the piece, the polls have just not looked quite so good | :21:29. | :21:31. | |
for Remain as they did beforehand. John Curtice, thank | :21:32. | :21:34. | |
you very much indeed. Our political editor | :21:35. | :21:36. | |
Nick Watt joins me now. You were in the Commons today for | :21:37. | :21:41. | |
what was a very special day, remembering Jo Cox. Yes, they were | :21:42. | :21:46. | |
very powerful scenes in the House of Commons as Jo Cox's closest | :21:47. | :21:50. | |
Parliamentary colleagues paid a warm tribute to her, but really the most | :21:51. | :21:54. | |
poignant moment was when there were often moments of complete silence in | :21:55. | :22:00. | |
the chamber of the House of Commons and all you could hear were the | :22:01. | :22:03. | |
voices of her three and five-year-old making the noises that | :22:04. | :22:07. | |
any three or five-year-old makes when their father, in this case can | :22:08. | :22:11. | |
or their grandparent, is reading a book to them. The referendum | :22:12. | :22:14. | |
obviously wasn't directly addressed in these tributes, but it was never | :22:15. | :22:20. | |
far away. There was real anger today amongst Tory Vote Leave supporters | :22:21. | :22:24. | |
in the way in which they believe the Prime Minister is seeking to use the | :22:25. | :22:28. | |
death of Jo Cox to sort of bolster the Remain side, they cited the | :22:29. | :22:31. | |
Sunday Telegraph article in which the Prime Minister praised her work | :22:32. | :22:36. | |
for the Remain campaign and one former Tory Cabinet minister who I | :22:37. | :22:40. | |
spoke to who was still wearing his white rose of Yorkshire as a mark of | :22:41. | :22:43. | |
respect to Jo Cox and he said the Prime Minister had walked across a | :22:44. | :22:47. | |
line and behaved in a disgusting way. The Vote Leave leadership had | :22:48. | :22:53. | |
to send out a message this afternoon, they have a WhatsApp | :22:54. | :22:56. | |
group to communicate with their supporters, and they said to their | :22:57. | :22:59. | |
side, do not say anything, hold your horses, this is the time for silence | :23:00. | :23:03. | |
on this particular issue. Does the behind-the-scenes annoyance with the | :23:04. | :23:07. | |
Prime Minister, does it indicate anything about their worries and | :23:08. | :23:10. | |
anxieties about how this is going in the last week? I think it shows that | :23:11. | :23:15. | |
the Vote Leave side is nervous because they appeared to be moving | :23:16. | :23:19. | |
some way ahead in the polls and the polls are more difficult to read | :23:20. | :23:23. | |
now. It's interesting, I was speaking to Labour Brexit minister | :23:24. | :23:26. | |
last week who said it is all over are in the shouting, we have won. I | :23:27. | :23:31. | |
spoke to the same minister today and he said I still think we are going | :23:32. | :23:35. | |
to win but I think there were a few more caveats. It's important to say | :23:36. | :23:39. | |
that the Remain side are also very nervous and thought they had won on | :23:40. | :23:42. | |
the economy and they know that Vote Leave have had a great run on | :23:43. | :23:46. | |
immigration. Nick, thank you very much indeed. | :23:47. | :23:48. | |
There is so much to talk about in the referendum, | :23:49. | :23:51. | |
Much of the campaign has been devoted to a relatively | :23:52. | :23:54. | |
short playlist of issues, but you might remember that last | :23:55. | :23:57. | |
week, we had been taking Newsnight travelling - a short road trip | :23:58. | :24:00. | |
through the UK to get some fresh perspectives on the EU debate. | :24:01. | :24:02. | |
That was put on hold, but could we at least retrieve one | :24:03. | :24:05. | |
For obvious reasons the journey of the Newsnight truck | :24:06. | :24:15. | |
and our referendum road trip was suspended along | :24:16. | :24:22. | |
We had started in Glasgow and Stornoway last Monday, | :24:23. | :24:26. | |
made stops in Middlesbrough and Leicester, before pausing. | :24:27. | :24:28. | |
The schedule had the truck ending its journey in the southern resort | :24:29. | :24:31. | |
And we decided to keep to that date with just a brief visit to the town | :24:32. | :24:39. | |
to record some material on its perspective | :24:40. | :24:44. | |
on the referendum, a debate about the future of Britain, | :24:45. | :24:47. | |
We didn't have time to stop at the famous Butlins, | :24:48. | :24:53. | |
one of three in the country but we did get to see | :24:54. | :24:56. | |
The beaches are proud to regularly fly the European blue flag | :24:57. | :25:00. | |
The south coast is physically closer to the Continent than most | :25:01. | :25:09. | |
of the country and Bognor is not alone among towns here in fostering | :25:10. | :25:13. | |
But politically the local constituency's Conservative | :25:14. | :25:16. | |
and is one where Ukip performed well at the last election with 22% | :25:17. | :25:19. | |
You don't need me to tell you that the demographics of seaside towns | :25:20. | :25:30. | |
are often skewed to the elderly. About the Regis of the world make a | :25:31. | :25:36. | |
great place to retire but the sea also offers attractions to youthful | :25:37. | :25:40. | |
visitors as well. Here it turns out there are more of the older than the | :25:41. | :25:44. | |
young but still there is nowhere better to think about what kind of | :25:45. | :25:48. | |
generational divide exists in attitudes to the EU. Are Wallasey | :25:49. | :25:52. | |
editor Chris Cook came down here to find out for stop -- policy editor. | :25:53. | :25:59. | |
When the votes are tallied on Thursday night, a lot of seaside | :26:00. | :26:02. | |
towns will end up as strong supporters of Leave. | :26:03. | :26:04. | |
And Bognor Regis, on the Sussex coast, is likely to be one of them. | :26:05. | :26:07. | |
Now, Bognor is perhaps best known as a holiday resort, | :26:08. | :26:10. | |
despite its sometimes unreliable weather, but it has also got unusual | :26:11. | :26:13. | |
demographics that make it prime territory for Leave. | :26:14. | :26:15. | |
For one thing, we know that people with fewer qualifications, | :26:16. | :26:18. | |
be they academic or technical, are more likely to vote for Leave, | :26:19. | :26:21. | |
and here in Bognor, only 28% of people have any sort | :26:22. | :26:24. | |
of significant postsecondary qualification, as opposed to 37% | :26:25. | :26:26. | |
We also know that people who earn less are more | :26:27. | :26:32. | |
likely to vote for Leave, and here in Bognor the average wage | :26:33. | :26:36. | |
is around ?475 a week, that's ?50 a week less | :26:37. | :26:44. | |
than the national average, it's a full ?100 a week | :26:45. | :26:46. | |
less than the average for the Southeast of England. | :26:47. | :26:49. | |
Finally, and this is the big one for Bognor, we also know that older | :26:50. | :26:52. | |
people are more likely to vote for Leave, and here in Bognor around | :26:53. | :26:55. | |
A recent poll by Populous implies that if the population | :26:56. | :27:04. | |
was split 50-50 on Brexit, around 69% of under 24s | :27:05. | :27:06. | |
Conversely, 62% of over 65s would vote for Leave, | :27:07. | :27:14. | |
You can see that split when you talk to members of the | :27:15. | :27:19. | |
How do you intend to vote for the referendum? | :27:20. | :27:26. | |
I've not spoken to one who wants to stay in. | :27:27. | :27:32. | |
With all the immigration, all the benefits, the hospitals | :27:33. | :27:34. | |
straining at the seams, all the cancelled operations, | :27:35. | :27:36. | |
as I said about the schools and everything. | :27:37. | :27:44. | |
So you don't trust Mark Carney, or the Chancellor, | :27:45. | :27:47. | |
or the Prime Minister, or Martin Lewis, or any of these | :27:48. | :27:49. | |
people, when they say we will be poorer | :27:50. | :27:51. | |
They don't know any more than we do, do they, really? | :27:52. | :28:02. | |
The Governor of the Bank of England is a specialist economist, | :28:03. | :28:06. | |
central banker, brought in from Canada to help | :28:07. | :28:08. | |
run our economy, and he thinks it's a bad idea. | :28:09. | :28:11. | |
Yes, but does he know what it's like to go around Sainsbury's | :28:12. | :28:17. | |
shopping, or into where all people that are on benefits are spending | :28:18. | :28:20. | |
One of the things nationally is we think younger people | :28:21. | :28:25. | |
are going to be more likely to vote Remain. | :28:26. | :28:27. | |
It's their future, you see. They don't know the history. | :28:28. | :28:30. | |
We have known a different way, you see, so that is what we | :28:31. | :28:38. | |
are falling back on, because we knew it as it was. | :28:39. | :28:42. | |
We ask this not quite retired Remainer, who chairs a local | :28:43. | :28:46. | |
business, why he thinks older people tend to be pro-Leave. | :28:47. | :28:51. | |
I see it with my mother's generation that they really feel somehow | :28:52. | :28:55. | |
threatened by all the immigrants around. | :28:56. | :28:59. | |
They think that's changed the character of the place, | :29:00. | :29:02. | |
but the health service and the care homes they are going to end up | :29:03. | :29:07. | |
in just couldn't function without some immigration. | :29:08. | :29:12. | |
We caught up with some sporty young people at a local beach who had | :29:13. | :29:16. | |
rather different politics to their older neighbours. | :29:17. | :29:19. | |
Of your friends who you know are voting, what do | :29:20. | :29:22. | |
All of them are in, all of them are in, I can't see any idea why | :29:23. | :29:28. | |
Why is it you think that older people generally tend to disagree | :29:29. | :29:32. | |
More of that generation are geared towards having Britain as more | :29:33. | :29:38. | |
independent before the EU was really fully formed, and with our | :29:39. | :29:40. | |
generation we are much more about travelling, | :29:41. | :29:42. | |
much more about being free, much more about creating a wider | :29:43. | :29:46. | |
The reason why I am voting for In is that the deal we have | :29:47. | :29:54. | |
at the moment with Europe is great, you know, free movement of labour, | :29:55. | :29:57. | |
especially for watersports enthusiasts like us, | :29:58. | :29:58. | |
It means we can go and work in any country in Europe | :29:59. | :30:04. | |
without having to get a visa, and for us especially, | :30:05. | :30:06. | |
But the reason to leave the EU is to control immigration. | :30:07. | :30:10. | |
That seems to be a real emotional standpoint to take, | :30:11. | :30:12. | |
and I think, honestly, are we really going to curtail | :30:13. | :30:15. | |
immigration that much, and if we are, is that going | :30:16. | :30:17. | |
Is immigration a problem for people your age? | :30:18. | :30:20. | |
I think it's ridiculous that it is even considered a problem. | :30:21. | :30:25. | |
The local Ukip chair explains why he thinks young people | :30:26. | :30:28. | |
The young people have been very badly served by the politicians. | :30:29. | :30:31. | |
I don't think the politicians have been open and honest | :30:32. | :30:36. | |
They have fought a fear campaign, which has been devoid of the facts. | :30:37. | :30:45. | |
On Thursday, one generation will prevail. | :30:46. | :30:48. | |
Family arguments might be more ferocious this year than ever. | :30:49. | :31:00. | |
Well, I am joined by three local people, all at the more elderly | :31:01. | :31:04. | |
end of the spectrum, all over the age of 60. | :31:05. | :31:06. | |
Thank you all very much for joining us on this | :31:07. | :31:09. | |
First of all, why do you think there is this age | :31:10. | :31:14. | |
gap between the younger and the older in attitudes? | :31:15. | :31:19. | |
I think that people of my age can remember before we joined | :31:20. | :31:25. | |
the European Economic Community and we were able to manage. | :31:26. | :31:36. | |
The European Economic Community was a good thing. | :31:37. | :31:40. | |
And you are veering to Out, aren't you? | :31:41. | :31:48. | |
Yes, I haven't made up my mind completely but I'd like to be | :31:49. | :31:51. | |
I've yet to be convinced there is necessarily a strict divide | :31:52. | :31:55. | |
But I tend to agree with what Jane says, that I think the young people | :31:56. | :32:03. | |
haven't necessarily experienced what has gone before and haven't | :32:04. | :32:07. | |
seen that Britain can perfectly easily survive and the world isn't | :32:08. | :32:09. | |
going to fall in if we come out of the European Union. | :32:10. | :32:14. | |
You've got your own sign-writing business. | :32:15. | :32:16. | |
I think there has been a lot of pontificating about | :32:17. | :32:22. | |
To the detriment of the strengths that we have been living | :32:23. | :32:29. | |
with for a long time and just take for granted now. | :32:30. | :32:34. | |
I think taking it for granted is a massive mistake | :32:35. | :32:36. | |
which we could fall into if there is this sway to leave | :32:37. | :32:39. | |
Would it bother you, let's put it crudely, | :32:40. | :32:50. | |
if the old pulled us out of the EU and the young had wanted to stay in? | :32:51. | :33:06. | |
People say is it a problem if England votes us out | :33:07. | :33:09. | |
But is it a problem if you guys take us out and the young | :33:10. | :33:14. | |
Does that bother you, Jane? | :33:15. | :33:16. | |
I think it's a very important point, because they are the ones that | :33:17. | :33:19. | |
have to make it work, whatever we decide. | :33:20. | :33:21. | |
But I'm thinking beyond the next five or ten years, which I don't | :33:22. | :33:24. | |
I'm thinking for my grandchildren who are now aged eight to 13. | :33:25. | :33:28. | |
In a way I think it might be their only chance | :33:29. | :33:31. | |
Yeah, I agree with that, this will be the only chance | :33:32. | :33:35. | |
they will get because I don't think there will be another chance. | :33:36. | :33:38. | |
If we look at the issues in this campaign, mostly immigration | :33:39. | :33:40. | |
and the economy are being talked about a great deal. | :33:41. | :33:43. | |
Do we think that the elderly put more weight on immigration | :33:44. | :33:45. | |
My generation and slightly older than me have to think about, | :33:46. | :33:51. | |
as we get older and we are all now expecting to live to 80 plus, | :33:52. | :33:55. | |
Jane and Hugh, that is a paradox isn't it? | :33:56. | :34:01. | |
Care workers are disproportionately... | :34:02. | :34:03. | |
Yes, but I really seriously think this is a non-issue, | :34:04. | :34:05. | |
because immigration, for example myself, I know | :34:06. | :34:07. | |
lots of immigrants around here who are truly excellent people | :34:08. | :34:09. | |
and they do a terrific job and they are real | :34:10. | :34:12. | |
All that is being asked in relation to the European Union or anywhere | :34:13. | :34:23. | |
else is that we are able to choose those people that come here. | :34:24. | :34:26. | |
That means that we will still have the excellent | :34:27. | :34:28. | |
Those who say that it's not an issue have their heads in the sand. | :34:29. | :34:37. | |
Can you imagine if we come out that we retreat over the bit | :34:38. | :34:47. | |
as a nation and maybe we don't build High Speed 2, | :34:48. | :34:49. | |
and we don't build a third runway at Heathrow? | :34:50. | :34:51. | |
Do you see these kinds of things as connected? | :34:52. | :34:54. | |
I'm just interested in your bigger vision of Britain. | :34:55. | :34:56. | |
The future of Britain, as can happen outside the EU, | :34:57. | :35:01. | |
There is a tremendous future for Britain, as there is for a lot | :35:02. | :35:09. | |
I don't really see that that makes a lot of difference. | :35:10. | :35:13. | |
But I am very positive about the many excellent things | :35:14. | :35:15. | |
Britain can do if it is able to trade freely with all the other | :35:16. | :35:19. | |
countries of the world, instead of just being restricted | :35:20. | :35:21. | |
Whatever the outcome may be, and I'm passionate about the Remain | :35:22. | :35:29. | |
in because of all the benefits it will bring the future generations | :35:30. | :35:32. | |
of our children and their children as it goes forward. | :35:33. | :35:41. | |
Because, the strength that it will give all of us, | :35:42. | :35:44. | |
it beggars belief that we can see ourselves as little Englanders | :35:45. | :35:46. | |
being run by politicians that have no vision, no imagination. | :35:47. | :35:53. | |
This little Englander thing kind of irritates me in a sense | :35:54. | :36:01. | |
because we are not little Englanders, we are Great Britain | :36:02. | :36:04. | |
and Great Britain can survive perfectly well, as David Cameron has | :36:05. | :36:06. | |
Do you think Britain was a better country in the days before | :36:07. | :36:13. | |
No, so you are not in any way attached | :36:14. | :36:20. | |
Is there an emotional bond, do you think, that young people | :36:21. | :36:26. | |
Do you think younger people feel more European in identity, | :36:27. | :36:30. | |
a bit more, clearly not completely, but a bit more of a European | :36:31. | :36:33. | |
identity and the ability to travel there, friends there, | :36:34. | :36:36. | |
It's all they've done, it's all they know. | :36:37. | :36:43. | |
So, yes, I think they do have an attachment. | :36:44. | :36:48. | |
They are European and their understanding of what Europe is all | :36:49. | :36:54. | |
about is what they've lived through, what they've been educated in, | :36:55. | :36:56. | |
what they've seen, what they've experienced full stop. | :36:57. | :37:00. | |
what they've seen, what they've experienced, full stop. | :37:01. | :37:03. | |
Hugh, Jane, Steve, thank you very much indeed. | :37:04. | :37:07. | |
You may not have made up your mind yet. | :37:08. | :37:24. | |
In the recent polls, the undecideds have been | :37:25. | :37:27. | |
Anyway, through the campaign we've been helping you make your mind up, | :37:28. | :37:30. | |
by letting some engaging people who are not active campaigners, | :37:31. | :37:33. | |
set out their argument for or against. | :37:34. | :37:34. | |
We are in the last legs, and have to make sure we get | :37:35. | :37:37. | |
to Thursday having balanced up the quota on each side. | :37:38. | :37:40. | |
Tonight, our My Decision slot goes to the founder of lastminute.com | :37:41. | :37:43. | |
and philanthropist, Martha Lane Fox. | :37:44. | :37:59. | |
I'm wildly pro-Europe, both for reasons that | :38:00. | :38:00. | |
are from my heart and for reasons that are from my head. | :38:01. | :38:08. | |
If I had to describe the two, I guess I'd say that the head | :38:09. | :38:11. | |
reasons are based around my experiences as an entrepreneur | :38:12. | :38:15. | |
and a businessperson, and now a social entrepreneur, | :38:16. | :38:17. | |
and the experience I've had in the technology sector. | :38:18. | :38:19. | |
No surprises, you spend your entire time in the technology | :38:20. | :38:22. | |
sector thinking about how to connect the world more, | :38:23. | :38:24. | |
how to scale things, how to grow, how to use something that is small | :38:25. | :38:27. | |
and local, and help reach a global market. | :38:28. | :38:31. | |
The idea that you would retract into the smaller place is just | :38:32. | :38:34. | |
something that is so countercultural in my working life. | :38:35. | :38:38. | |
But my heart part is more important, I believe, and more dominant actuary | :38:39. | :38:41. | |
in my thinking and my decision-making. | :38:42. | :38:46. | |
I so strongly believe that we should always be part of the discussion, | :38:47. | :38:49. | |
and inclusion is a better position to take than exclusion. | :38:50. | :38:55. | |
Where do you sit on voting in or out? | :38:56. | :38:58. | |
I think like any enormous system in any country, | :38:59. | :39:03. | |
in any political structure, things can improve and change. | :39:04. | :39:06. | |
If I look at it from my own perspective, the technology world, | :39:07. | :39:08. | |
it's still a pretty bureaucratic organisation, I'm not sure | :39:09. | :39:11. | |
When I visited Brussels, the Commission is full of paper. | :39:12. | :39:19. | |
There is lots of change and excitement you could reorganise | :39:20. | :39:22. | |
around the internet, but I'm not sure that is particular | :39:23. | :39:25. | |
to Brussels, it is particular to most political systems. | :39:26. | :39:28. | |
The fear that I would have is that we have lost an ability | :39:29. | :39:32. | |
to impact the most important debates of our times, and we need to have | :39:33. | :39:36. | |
as big a voice as possible to solve the big challenges, | :39:37. | :39:39. | |
whether that is climate change, whether that is the mass | :39:40. | :39:41. | |
migration of peoples, whether that is gender | :39:42. | :39:43. | |
equality, or whether that is technological shifts. | :39:44. | :39:52. | |
I fear for us as a country we are looking backwards not | :39:53. | :39:55. | |
forwards and that we would become much diminished. | :39:56. | :39:57. | |
Emily will be at Wembley tomorrow for the really | :39:58. | :40:02. | |
But we leave you with a celebration of the Welsh football | :40:03. | :40:08. | |
team's third goal against Russia, which left them and not | :40:09. | :40:11. | |
Not bad, as the comedian David Schneider noted, for a country | :40:12. | :40:16. | |
Good evening, despite starting on a very wet note, Midsummer's day | :40:17. | :41:13. | |
finished | :41:14. | :41:14. |