20/06/2016 Newsnight


20/06/2016

How has the death of Jo Cox changed the course of the referendum? And from Bognor, the take of the older generation.


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Transcript


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We've heard a lot about what we think, so what does

:00:10.:00:12.

There will maximum be two years to negotiate. It could be done quicker.

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I would be in favour of a very quick solution to this.

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Brussels won't be happy if we take the Tippex to Heath's signature.

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We'll look at what happens on Friday, if we do.

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Former Tory leader, and Brexiteer, Michael Howard will take us

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Also tonight, we take our referendum truck to Bognor Regis,

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Is it a problem if you guys take us out, and the young wanted to be in?

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I'm thinking beyond the next five or ten years, which I don't think

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the politicians are, and I'm thinking for my grandchildren.

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And more to the point, they will know, too.

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The rest of the EU will find out what has hit it.

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The first meeting of the European Council is a week tomorrow.

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That's when the European reaction will be crystallised.

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If we vote to leave, they'll have a lot to talk about.

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Could it even be that the other 27 leaders meet ahead of time,

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or ask David Cameron to take a short walk, while they work out

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The big question in the event of Brexit is what the new UK-EU

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Then there's a smaller, tactical question, too;

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do we invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?

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Article 50 provides for a nation to leave the EU.

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It gives us a system to negotiate our way out.

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But it imposes a time limit, too, that may not be very helpful

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Our diplomatic editor Mark Urban has been visiting European capitals,

:01:50.:01:54.

to get the view of Brexit from there.

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Across Europe, the ministers and bureaucrats are thinking the

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unthinkable. A British exit from the EU may be imminent. We've been

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travelling through some key countries in northern Europe, trying

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to get a handle on how they'd deal with it, what arguments they might

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deploy in talks. In Denmark, they know about saying

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no to the EU. Denmark's vote against the Maastricht Treaty 24 years ago

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is just one example of when a referendum has derailed EU plans,

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and what has tended to happen in the past is that the commission has gone

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back to the drawing board and crafted a new offer. So the first

:03:01.:03:04.

dilemma that other European countries would face if Britain

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voted for Brexit is whether to offer a better deal to the UK. Former

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members of the commission, the EU civil service, suggest it would be

:03:17.:03:19.

hard to come up with further concessions for the UK. With all the

:03:20.:03:27.

challenges now, will the economic situation in Europe, will Russia and

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Putin, with the security issues, with terrorism, and immigrants, they

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would not be a lot of appetite to spend too much time on finding these

:03:37.:03:41.

solutions. Remember, the other thing, that they gave Britain,

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basically, what the British government asked for. They think

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they have been forthcoming already. So I just think it is still

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extremely risky, what could happen after there would be a no.

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Underlying all talks would be a fear of other nations trying to get their

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own bespoke deals. I think first of all the commission would try to

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avoid precedents, they certainly would not support a solution which

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could create appetite for other member states to follow the British

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example. For that reason, many European politicians feel further

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concessions after Britain's vote would be pointless, and argue that

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27 would want to move swiftly and to Britain's exit talks. In principle,

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I would say that there should be no doubt that a No vote, that is a vote

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to leave the EU, should be respected. And, after that, I also

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think that we should go for a quick decision, according to the EU

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treaty, there will maximum be two years to negotiate. It could be done

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quicker. I would be in favour of a very quick solution to this. The

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Sicilian Hof Palace was built in an English style a century ago. It is

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located in Potsdam in Germany. Allied leaders met here after the

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Second World War to shape the peace come and to prevent Germany from

:05:28.:05:31.

rising again to military domination of Europe. The summit that would

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follow a Brexit, inevitably nations would take different positions.

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European politicians tell us the French the Italians and possibly the

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Spanish could be expected to want the toughest possible terms for

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Britain. The Scandinavians and Dutch, on the other hand, would want

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to be as reasonable as they could. And in between, synthesising those

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different positions, and providing leadership, as in so many recent

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crises for the EU, would be Chancellor Merkel's Germany. Germany

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will be very exposed in the EU, and Germany will get more or less

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automatically the only leadership fall. Germany will be whether

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Germany wants it or not, and we can tell you Germany doesn't want it,

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they will have to accent leadership in the European Union, and I'm not

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sure, but if this is something that the British would clearly want.

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Contagion, euro scepticism, is present in Germany of course. The

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AFD, or all turn it for Germany party has been eating into the

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Chancellor's vote of late. -- alternative for Germany. The leader

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would rather Britain stays in to fight for reform and believes the

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project is in serious trouble. We have already seen that projects on

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the integration have failed, for example the euro. As attempts to

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have a common migration policy, or turn at off common social policies.

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So whatever the EU commission does, we will see that the problems will

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become even more evident on a European level, and therefore I

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think with Britain or without Britain, the EU will have to change.

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This is the where the -- the Bundesrat, where the leaders of

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Germany's states meet. What strategy with a advocate? If the views of

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Chancellor Merkel's president are anything to go by, even single

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market access on Swiss or Norwegian terms must be ruled out for Britain.

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Another minister president from Angela Merkel's party, though, took

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a more moderate line, arguing a way would have to be found to create a

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new relationship. In Berlin's fortress-like

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chancellery, Angela Merkel would have two balance those different use

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within her party and within the EU. Just how hard a bargain to drive,

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how far to protect German markets in the UK, this is prioritising the

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survival of the EU project as a whole. Germany has an interest to

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show all the other Eurosceptics, let's say maybe parts of Denmark,

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the Netherlands, maybe the Poles, that they have something to lose.

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That is why they have to be tough on Britain, after the article 50 is

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involved. It might seem like the most rigid diplomacy imaginable,

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stay in or we will make an example of you. But today there are many

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here, and elsewhere in Europe, who insist they are in earnest. Mark

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Urban there. Well, most of the other

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Europeans hope the Brexit One person who hopes it

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will is Michael Howard, former Home Secretary and former

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leader of the Conservative Party. Now Lord Howard. A very good evening

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to you. First of all, do you think if we vote for Brexit on Thursday,

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as I think you once said, it's worth pausing for a month to see if a

:10:01.:10:05.

better offer comes along, remaining in the EU, and then we maybe have a

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second referendum and discuss whether the new terms are

:10:10.:10:12.

acceptable? I think there's something to be said for that. I

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don't think we would make any approach, we would have voted to

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leave, but if the Europeans came forward with some other offer, which

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looked credible, I personally would be prepared to talk to them about

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it. Even though we have just voted to leave, and it is OK, guys, you

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can stay in? It depends on what terms. What would it need to be for

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a Prime Minister to go back to a country and say look, let's do it

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all again? Look, it might not happen, and it would be up to them.

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It would need to be a fundamental and far-reaching reform, which David

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Cameron originally asked for in his speech. But that's not going to

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happen. If that's not bad to happen, there would be no point in talking.

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On Friday, fuming that doesn't happen, and maybe you want to wait a

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few days, -- assuming, do you invoke article 50? I am not in charge, but

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I think that is the logical thing to do. I agree with Mr Rasmussen, who

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thought it would be a rather quick negotiation. He is wrong when he

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says there is a two-year limit. It can be extended. By unanimity. It is

:11:26.:11:32.

Germany who calls the shots, and forgot to two years and Angela

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Merkel were still in office and wanted it extended, it would jolly

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well be standard. Tell us why someone on your side of this are

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keen not to invoke article 50 very quickly, because the official Leave

:11:44.:11:48.

campaign is we don't need to do that for a while, we can sit and light a

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cigar. I agree with the tours. Some are even saying, John Redwood has

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told this programme this afternoon, you don't ever have to invoke

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Article 50. Why do it? That is to respect the Treaty of Lisbon which

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others would reject. I have told you what I would think would happen. So

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we invoke article 50 at a reasonable price? Yes. And it doesn't bother

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you that the clock is ticking against us and they could string it

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out, we get a worse deal? What we have got to get it into our heads is

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that we will not be supplicants. We are the fifth biggest economy in the

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world, they sell us what much more than we sell them, they will not

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what of their nose to spite their face. Your specific concern, the

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reason you feel so strongly, is about the sovereignty of Parliament,

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and the court of the European court of justice back and tell Parliament

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what it is able to do and not. And it is about to do that. I think

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Thursday may be our last chance to vote for a democratic self-governing

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country. People don't understand that the European court of justice

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now has the power to overrule Acts of Parliament. It has already

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overruled an act of the Scottish parliament, the first act, actually,

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passed by the SNP when it got a majority in the Scottish Parliament,

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and an act that was passed by our Parliament in 2014, which the Home

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Secretary said was critical to protecting children, fighting

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terrorism and commenting crime, is coming before the European court of

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justice, of course not before Thursday, but in a few weeks' time,

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and they would be perfectly entitled, as things stand, to strike

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it out, to overrule it. And you know, Evan, there was a passage in

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the Queen's speech, which said the government pledges to uphold the

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sovereignty of Parliament, and the primacy of the House of Commons.

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Those words are not worth the paper they are written on as long as we

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remain members of the European Union. Right, and that's because if

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you join a club like that, somebody has to be the final arbiter between

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whether you have obeyed the rules of the club or not. The keywords are if

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you join a club like that. I quite agree, if you have a club that is

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limited to economic issues, trade issues, you have to have some

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adjudication on the trade issues, but the Charter of fundamental human

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rights goes far, far beyond that, and they can override practically

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anything our Parliament would pass. I understand the point you are

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making, there are many on your side of the debate to say letters not

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wait for the two years to be up, or the four years to be up while we in

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the go shoot our exit from the EU. If we vote leave, we need to pass a

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bill amending the European Community 's act of 1972, where Ted Heath got

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a sin. We need to amend that Bill to stop the European court of justice

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for example being able to tell us whether we have our Data Protection

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Act or not, our data use act or not. Do you believe we should change the

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law before we have negotiated our exit, or should we wait until we

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finally have agreed an exit. We might well have to do that. Do what?

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We might well have to legislate before the end of the negotiation.

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Suppose you had a two-year period and then it was extended and so on,

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we are not going to wait forever, not going to wait for four years

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before making it clear that our Parliament is supreme. If the

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negotiation is a quick thing, and it should be, there is a food trade

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area from Iceland to Turkey, so the obvious solution would be let's have

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a free trade area. You are contemplating passing a law,

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Parliament passing a bill, in breach of our treaty obligations. If that

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is necessary I would support it. Is this meant to be a way to a

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harmonious separation from the EU? Will this lead to them being well

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disposed to giving us a good deal? I don't think it would be necessary,

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if they want a harmonious relationship which they should do

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and we should do, it was Jack Delors who said if the United Kingdom

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doesn't want to agree to further European integration we should have

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a different relationship with them, a friendly relationship. How long do

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we give them before we start passing laws that basically unilaterally

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say, stuff you, we are not part of your club anymore and we will not

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negotiate? First of all, I will not be in charge. But you are providing

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guidance. It would be ridiculous to set out arbitrary deadlines. It is

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the official policy of Vote Leave that we should do this very quickly

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after we leave, not waiting two years, within weeks we should say,

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sorry guys, the European Court will not be telling us what to do. I'm

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happy with that because I have a fundamental objection to the

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European Court telling us what to do, it is fundamentally undemocratic

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and we never signed up to that. Tony Blair promised us that the Charter

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of fundamental rights did not apply to us, we never signed up to it,

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that's the point! So you are happy with a position as Vote Leave has

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suggested that we pass laws in breach of the our treaty

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obligations, if you like, without having negotiated? If I have to do

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that, yes, but I'm in favour of a quick negotiation as Mr Rasmussen

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intimated and its possible and desirable. My understanding is Vote

:17:33.:17:38.

Leave want to do it not given the EU 18 months, or two years, to sort it

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out, they want to do it in a few weeks. There is no way we will sort

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it out in three or four weeks, that spy in the sky. If we need to make

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it clear that we are a self-governing Parliamentary

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democracy and we need to pass legislation to achieve that we

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should do it. That is our birthright, our heritage, our

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tradition, and something we have a last chance to recover on Thursday.

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Lord Howard, thank you very much. Thank you.

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One striking development in the last few days - big

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movements in the markets, apparently predicting that the odds

:18:14.:18:15.

The pound has soared, the FTSE had its best

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day for four months, and the bookies' odds have shifted.

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The betting market had put the chance of a Brexit win above 40%

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Yesterday, Brexit was seen as having a 33%

:18:26.:18:28.

A couple of polls tonight putting Remain ahead.

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Something has changed, it could be a late swing

:18:38.:18:40.

to the status quo, that is something we often see.

:18:41.:18:44.

But, obviously, it could also be a Jo Cox effect.

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For a fifth day today, the campaign has been

:18:48.:18:49.

affected by her death, with Parliament recalled,

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to hear moving tributes from her colleagues.

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Just before we came on air, I spoke to Professor John Curtice.

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He is a pollster and I began by asking him the current state of play

:19:01.:19:04.

in the referendum. It is perhaps worth reminding

:19:05.:19:05.

ourselves where we seemed to be towards the end of last week before

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the tragic murder of Jo Cox. We had just seen a whole sequence

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of opinion polls that were the worst figures for Remain and the best

:19:12.:19:15.

figures for Leave at any stage And for the first time perhaps

:19:16.:19:17.

a real prospect that Remain were, on the consensus

:19:18.:19:21.

of the opinion polls, behind. Then at the weekend we saw the polls

:19:22.:19:23.

move back again to some degree, though even then the polls

:19:24.:19:27.

being done over the Internet said it was a 50-50 call,

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which is what they've been saying And we had one telephone

:19:30.:19:32.

poll putting the Remain Tonight we have two more polls,

:19:33.:19:35.

one Internet poll from YouGov, Another one from ORB,

:19:36.:19:39.

a phone poll, depending a bit on how you interpret it,

:19:40.:19:45.

but again it looks like So we are frankly looking

:19:46.:19:48.

at a referendum which is still extraordinarily tight but maybe not

:19:49.:19:54.

quite so bad for Remain as it looked So, the markets, the prediction

:19:55.:19:58.

markets, the bookies, basically, thinking it is a 25%

:19:59.:20:04.

chance of Brexit now, which has diminished

:20:05.:20:06.

very, very rapidly. I think the truth is that they are

:20:07.:20:07.

now seriously underestimating Given that most of the recent

:20:08.:20:18.

opinion polls we have been having are saying it is somewhere

:20:19.:20:25.

between maybe 49% for Remain and about 52% for Remain,

:20:26.:20:28.

I would suggest something like 40-45% would be a more serious

:20:29.:20:30.

and sensible probability for the prospect of

:20:31.:20:32.

Leave at this juncture. Clearly something has changed

:20:33.:20:40.

from the worst polls that Because, people were saying that

:20:41.:20:42.

maybe there will be a late I think the truth is it's impossible

:20:43.:20:55.

to tell whether there There is nothing directly in

:20:56.:21:00.

the opinion polls to support that. Maybe there has been a little bit

:21:01.:21:03.

of movement back towards Remain, but perhaps we shouldn't also simply

:21:04.:21:06.

discount the most boring hypothesis which is that maybe last week

:21:07.:21:16.

the polls happened all to slightly exaggerate Leave's position and that

:21:17.:21:19.

maybe not a great deal has ever happened at all,

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although I think in truth probably Remain's position still looks

:21:22.:21:24.

somewhat weaker than it did certainly before we got

:21:25.:21:26.

into the pre-election Since then, if you look

:21:27.:21:28.

across the piece, the polls have just not looked quite so good

:21:29.:21:31.

for Remain as they did beforehand. John Curtice, thank

:21:32.:21:34.

you very much indeed. Our political editor

:21:35.:21:36.

Nick Watt joins me now. You were in the Commons today for

:21:37.:21:41.

what was a very special day, remembering Jo Cox. Yes, they were

:21:42.:21:46.

very powerful scenes in the House of Commons as Jo Cox's closest

:21:47.:21:50.

Parliamentary colleagues paid a warm tribute to her, but really the most

:21:51.:21:54.

poignant moment was when there were often moments of complete silence in

:21:55.:22:00.

the chamber of the House of Commons and all you could hear were the

:22:01.:22:03.

voices of her three and five-year-old making the noises that

:22:04.:22:07.

any three or five-year-old makes when their father, in this case can

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or their grandparent, is reading a book to them. The referendum

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obviously wasn't directly addressed in these tributes, but it was never

:22:15.:22:20.

far away. There was real anger today amongst Tory Vote Leave supporters

:22:21.:22:24.

in the way in which they believe the Prime Minister is seeking to use the

:22:25.:22:28.

death of Jo Cox to sort of bolster the Remain side, they cited the

:22:29.:22:31.

Sunday Telegraph article in which the Prime Minister praised her work

:22:32.:22:36.

for the Remain campaign and one former Tory Cabinet minister who I

:22:37.:22:40.

spoke to who was still wearing his white rose of Yorkshire as a mark of

:22:41.:22:43.

respect to Jo Cox and he said the Prime Minister had walked across a

:22:44.:22:47.

line and behaved in a disgusting way. The Vote Leave leadership had

:22:48.:22:53.

to send out a message this afternoon, they have a WhatsApp

:22:54.:22:56.

group to communicate with their supporters, and they said to their

:22:57.:22:59.

side, do not say anything, hold your horses, this is the time for silence

:23:00.:23:03.

on this particular issue. Does the behind-the-scenes annoyance with the

:23:04.:23:07.

Prime Minister, does it indicate anything about their worries and

:23:08.:23:10.

anxieties about how this is going in the last week? I think it shows that

:23:11.:23:15.

the Vote Leave side is nervous because they appeared to be moving

:23:16.:23:19.

some way ahead in the polls and the polls are more difficult to read

:23:20.:23:23.

now. It's interesting, I was speaking to Labour Brexit minister

:23:24.:23:26.

last week who said it is all over are in the shouting, we have won. I

:23:27.:23:31.

spoke to the same minister today and he said I still think we are going

:23:32.:23:35.

to win but I think there were a few more caveats. It's important to say

:23:36.:23:39.

that the Remain side are also very nervous and thought they had won on

:23:40.:23:42.

the economy and they know that Vote Leave have had a great run on

:23:43.:23:46.

immigration. Nick, thank you very much indeed.

:23:47.:23:48.

There is so much to talk about in the referendum,

:23:49.:23:51.

Much of the campaign has been devoted to a relatively

:23:52.:23:54.

short playlist of issues, but you might remember that last

:23:55.:23:57.

week, we had been taking Newsnight travelling - a short road trip

:23:58.:24:00.

through the UK to get some fresh perspectives on the EU debate.

:24:01.:24:02.

That was put on hold, but could we at least retrieve one

:24:03.:24:05.

For obvious reasons the journey of the Newsnight truck

:24:06.:24:15.

and our referendum road trip was suspended along

:24:16.:24:22.

We had started in Glasgow and Stornoway last Monday,

:24:23.:24:26.

made stops in Middlesbrough and Leicester, before pausing.

:24:27.:24:28.

The schedule had the truck ending its journey in the southern resort

:24:29.:24:31.

And we decided to keep to that date with just a brief visit to the town

:24:32.:24:39.

to record some material on its perspective

:24:40.:24:44.

on the referendum, a debate about the future of Britain,

:24:45.:24:47.

We didn't have time to stop at the famous Butlins,

:24:48.:24:53.

one of three in the country but we did get to see

:24:54.:24:56.

The beaches are proud to regularly fly the European blue flag

:24:57.:25:00.

The south coast is physically closer to the Continent than most

:25:01.:25:09.

of the country and Bognor is not alone among towns here in fostering

:25:10.:25:13.

But politically the local constituency's Conservative

:25:14.:25:16.

and is one where Ukip performed well at the last election with 22%

:25:17.:25:19.

You don't need me to tell you that the demographics of seaside towns

:25:20.:25:30.

are often skewed to the elderly. About the Regis of the world make a

:25:31.:25:36.

great place to retire but the sea also offers attractions to youthful

:25:37.:25:40.

visitors as well. Here it turns out there are more of the older than the

:25:41.:25:44.

young but still there is nowhere better to think about what kind of

:25:45.:25:48.

generational divide exists in attitudes to the EU. Are Wallasey

:25:49.:25:52.

editor Chris Cook came down here to find out for stop -- policy editor.

:25:53.:25:59.

When the votes are tallied on Thursday night, a lot of seaside

:26:00.:26:02.

towns will end up as strong supporters of Leave.

:26:03.:26:04.

And Bognor Regis, on the Sussex coast, is likely to be one of them.

:26:05.:26:07.

Now, Bognor is perhaps best known as a holiday resort,

:26:08.:26:10.

despite its sometimes unreliable weather, but it has also got unusual

:26:11.:26:13.

demographics that make it prime territory for Leave.

:26:14.:26:15.

For one thing, we know that people with fewer qualifications,

:26:16.:26:18.

be they academic or technical, are more likely to vote for Leave,

:26:19.:26:21.

and here in Bognor, only 28% of people have any sort

:26:22.:26:24.

of significant postsecondary qualification, as opposed to 37%

:26:25.:26:26.

We also know that people who earn less are more

:26:27.:26:32.

likely to vote for Leave, and here in Bognor the average wage

:26:33.:26:36.

is around ?475 a week, that's ?50 a week less

:26:37.:26:44.

than the national average, it's a full ?100 a week

:26:45.:26:46.

less than the average for the Southeast of England.

:26:47.:26:49.

Finally, and this is the big one for Bognor, we also know that older

:26:50.:26:52.

people are more likely to vote for Leave, and here in Bognor around

:26:53.:26:55.

A recent poll by Populous implies that if the population

:26:56.:27:04.

was split 50-50 on Brexit, around 69% of under 24s

:27:05.:27:06.

Conversely, 62% of over 65s would vote for Leave,

:27:07.:27:14.

You can see that split when you talk to members of the

:27:15.:27:19.

How do you intend to vote for the referendum?

:27:20.:27:26.

I've not spoken to one who wants to stay in.

:27:27.:27:32.

With all the immigration, all the benefits, the hospitals

:27:33.:27:34.

straining at the seams, all the cancelled operations,

:27:35.:27:36.

as I said about the schools and everything.

:27:37.:27:44.

So you don't trust Mark Carney, or the Chancellor,

:27:45.:27:47.

or the Prime Minister, or Martin Lewis, or any of these

:27:48.:27:49.

people, when they say we will be poorer

:27:50.:27:51.

They don't know any more than we do, do they, really?

:27:52.:28:02.

The Governor of the Bank of England is a specialist economist,

:28:03.:28:06.

central banker, brought in from Canada to help

:28:07.:28:08.

run our economy, and he thinks it's a bad idea.

:28:09.:28:11.

Yes, but does he know what it's like to go around Sainsbury's

:28:12.:28:17.

shopping, or into where all people that are on benefits are spending

:28:18.:28:20.

One of the things nationally is we think younger people

:28:21.:28:25.

are going to be more likely to vote Remain.

:28:26.:28:27.

It's their future, you see. They don't know the history.

:28:28.:28:30.

We have known a different way, you see, so that is what we

:28:31.:28:38.

are falling back on, because we knew it as it was.

:28:39.:28:42.

We ask this not quite retired Remainer, who chairs a local

:28:43.:28:46.

business, why he thinks older people tend to be pro-Leave.

:28:47.:28:51.

I see it with my mother's generation that they really feel somehow

:28:52.:28:55.

threatened by all the immigrants around.

:28:56.:28:59.

They think that's changed the character of the place,

:29:00.:29:02.

but the health service and the care homes they are going to end up

:29:03.:29:07.

in just couldn't function without some immigration.

:29:08.:29:12.

We caught up with some sporty young people at a local beach who had

:29:13.:29:16.

rather different politics to their older neighbours.

:29:17.:29:19.

Of your friends who you know are voting, what do

:29:20.:29:22.

All of them are in, all of them are in, I can't see any idea why

:29:23.:29:28.

Why is it you think that older people generally tend to disagree

:29:29.:29:32.

More of that generation are geared towards having Britain as more

:29:33.:29:38.

independent before the EU was really fully formed, and with our

:29:39.:29:40.

generation we are much more about travelling,

:29:41.:29:42.

much more about being free, much more about creating a wider

:29:43.:29:46.

The reason why I am voting for In is that the deal we have

:29:47.:29:54.

at the moment with Europe is great, you know, free movement of labour,

:29:55.:29:57.

especially for watersports enthusiasts like us,

:29:58.:29:58.

It means we can go and work in any country in Europe

:29:59.:30:04.

without having to get a visa, and for us especially,

:30:05.:30:06.

But the reason to leave the EU is to control immigration.

:30:07.:30:10.

That seems to be a real emotional standpoint to take,

:30:11.:30:12.

and I think, honestly, are we really going to curtail

:30:13.:30:15.

immigration that much, and if we are, is that going

:30:16.:30:17.

Is immigration a problem for people your age?

:30:18.:30:20.

I think it's ridiculous that it is even considered a problem.

:30:21.:30:25.

The local Ukip chair explains why he thinks young people

:30:26.:30:28.

The young people have been very badly served by the politicians.

:30:29.:30:31.

I don't think the politicians have been open and honest

:30:32.:30:36.

They have fought a fear campaign, which has been devoid of the facts.

:30:37.:30:45.

On Thursday, one generation will prevail.

:30:46.:30:48.

Family arguments might be more ferocious this year than ever.

:30:49.:31:00.

Well, I am joined by three local people, all at the more elderly

:31:01.:31:04.

end of the spectrum, all over the age of 60.

:31:05.:31:06.

Thank you all very much for joining us on this

:31:07.:31:09.

First of all, why do you think there is this age

:31:10.:31:14.

gap between the younger and the older in attitudes?

:31:15.:31:19.

I think that people of my age can remember before we joined

:31:20.:31:25.

the European Economic Community and we were able to manage.

:31:26.:31:36.

The European Economic Community was a good thing.

:31:37.:31:40.

And you are veering to Out, aren't you?

:31:41.:31:48.

Yes, I haven't made up my mind completely but I'd like to be

:31:49.:31:51.

I've yet to be convinced there is necessarily a strict divide

:31:52.:31:55.

But I tend to agree with what Jane says, that I think the young people

:31:56.:32:03.

haven't necessarily experienced what has gone before and haven't

:32:04.:32:07.

seen that Britain can perfectly easily survive and the world isn't

:32:08.:32:09.

going to fall in if we come out of the European Union.

:32:10.:32:14.

You've got your own sign-writing business.

:32:15.:32:16.

I think there has been a lot of pontificating about

:32:17.:32:22.

To the detriment of the strengths that we have been living

:32:23.:32:29.

with for a long time and just take for granted now.

:32:30.:32:34.

I think taking it for granted is a massive mistake

:32:35.:32:36.

which we could fall into if there is this sway to leave

:32:37.:32:39.

Would it bother you, let's put it crudely,

:32:40.:32:50.

if the old pulled us out of the EU and the young had wanted to stay in?

:32:51.:33:06.

People say is it a problem if England votes us out

:33:07.:33:09.

But is it a problem if you guys take us out and the young

:33:10.:33:14.

Does that bother you, Jane?

:33:15.:33:16.

I think it's a very important point, because they are the ones that

:33:17.:33:19.

have to make it work, whatever we decide.

:33:20.:33:21.

But I'm thinking beyond the next five or ten years, which I don't

:33:22.:33:24.

I'm thinking for my grandchildren who are now aged eight to 13.

:33:25.:33:28.

In a way I think it might be their only chance

:33:29.:33:31.

Yeah, I agree with that, this will be the only chance

:33:32.:33:35.

they will get because I don't think there will be another chance.

:33:36.:33:38.

If we look at the issues in this campaign, mostly immigration

:33:39.:33:40.

and the economy are being talked about a great deal.

:33:41.:33:43.

Do we think that the elderly put more weight on immigration

:33:44.:33:45.

My generation and slightly older than me have to think about,

:33:46.:33:51.

as we get older and we are all now expecting to live to 80 plus,

:33:52.:33:55.

Jane and Hugh, that is a paradox isn't it?

:33:56.:34:01.

Care workers are disproportionately...

:34:02.:34:03.

Yes, but I really seriously think this is a non-issue,

:34:04.:34:05.

because immigration, for example myself, I know

:34:06.:34:07.

lots of immigrants around here who are truly excellent people

:34:08.:34:09.

and they do a terrific job and they are real

:34:10.:34:12.

All that is being asked in relation to the European Union or anywhere

:34:13.:34:23.

else is that we are able to choose those people that come here.

:34:24.:34:26.

That means that we will still have the excellent

:34:27.:34:28.

Those who say that it's not an issue have their heads in the sand.

:34:29.:34:37.

Can you imagine if we come out that we retreat over the bit

:34:38.:34:47.

as a nation and maybe we don't build High Speed 2,

:34:48.:34:49.

and we don't build a third runway at Heathrow?

:34:50.:34:51.

Do you see these kinds of things as connected?

:34:52.:34:54.

I'm just interested in your bigger vision of Britain.

:34:55.:34:56.

The future of Britain, as can happen outside the EU,

:34:57.:35:01.

There is a tremendous future for Britain, as there is for a lot

:35:02.:35:09.

I don't really see that that makes a lot of difference.

:35:10.:35:13.

But I am very positive about the many excellent things

:35:14.:35:15.

Britain can do if it is able to trade freely with all the other

:35:16.:35:19.

countries of the world, instead of just being restricted

:35:20.:35:21.

Whatever the outcome may be, and I'm passionate about the Remain

:35:22.:35:29.

in because of all the benefits it will bring the future generations

:35:30.:35:32.

of our children and their children as it goes forward.

:35:33.:35:41.

Because, the strength that it will give all of us,

:35:42.:35:44.

it beggars belief that we can see ourselves as little Englanders

:35:45.:35:46.

being run by politicians that have no vision, no imagination.

:35:47.:35:53.

This little Englander thing kind of irritates me in a sense

:35:54.:36:01.

because we are not little Englanders, we are Great Britain

:36:02.:36:04.

and Great Britain can survive perfectly well, as David Cameron has

:36:05.:36:06.

Do you think Britain was a better country in the days before

:36:07.:36:13.

No, so you are not in any way attached

:36:14.:36:20.

Is there an emotional bond, do you think, that young people

:36:21.:36:26.

Do you think younger people feel more European in identity,

:36:27.:36:30.

a bit more, clearly not completely, but a bit more of a European

:36:31.:36:33.

identity and the ability to travel there, friends there,

:36:34.:36:36.

It's all they've done, it's all they know.

:36:37.:36:43.

So, yes, I think they do have an attachment.

:36:44.:36:48.

They are European and their understanding of what Europe is all

:36:49.:36:54.

about is what they've lived through, what they've been educated in,

:36:55.:36:56.

what they've seen, what they've experienced full stop.

:36:57.:37:00.

what they've seen, what they've experienced, full stop.

:37:01.:37:03.

Hugh, Jane, Steve, thank you very much indeed.

:37:04.:37:07.

You may not have made up your mind yet.

:37:08.:37:24.

In the recent polls, the undecideds have been

:37:25.:37:27.

Anyway, through the campaign we've been helping you make your mind up,

:37:28.:37:30.

by letting some engaging people who are not active campaigners,

:37:31.:37:33.

set out their argument for or against.

:37:34.:37:34.

We are in the last legs, and have to make sure we get

:37:35.:37:37.

to Thursday having balanced up the quota on each side.

:37:38.:37:40.

Tonight, our My Decision slot goes to the founder of lastminute.com

:37:41.:37:43.

and philanthropist, Martha Lane Fox.

:37:44.:37:59.

I'm wildly pro-Europe, both for reasons that

:38:00.:38:00.

are from my heart and for reasons that are from my head.

:38:01.:38:08.

If I had to describe the two, I guess I'd say that the head

:38:09.:38:11.

reasons are based around my experiences as an entrepreneur

:38:12.:38:15.

and a businessperson, and now a social entrepreneur,

:38:16.:38:17.

and the experience I've had in the technology sector.

:38:18.:38:19.

No surprises, you spend your entire time in the technology

:38:20.:38:22.

sector thinking about how to connect the world more,

:38:23.:38:24.

how to scale things, how to grow, how to use something that is small

:38:25.:38:27.

and local, and help reach a global market.

:38:28.:38:31.

The idea that you would retract into the smaller place is just

:38:32.:38:34.

something that is so countercultural in my working life.

:38:35.:38:38.

But my heart part is more important, I believe, and more dominant actuary

:38:39.:38:41.

in my thinking and my decision-making.

:38:42.:38:46.

I so strongly believe that we should always be part of the discussion,

:38:47.:38:49.

and inclusion is a better position to take than exclusion.

:38:50.:38:55.

Where do you sit on voting in or out?

:38:56.:38:58.

I think like any enormous system in any country,

:38:59.:39:03.

in any political structure, things can improve and change.

:39:04.:39:06.

If I look at it from my own perspective, the technology world,

:39:07.:39:08.

it's still a pretty bureaucratic organisation, I'm not sure

:39:09.:39:11.

When I visited Brussels, the Commission is full of paper.

:39:12.:39:19.

There is lots of change and excitement you could reorganise

:39:20.:39:22.

around the internet, but I'm not sure that is particular

:39:23.:39:25.

to Brussels, it is particular to most political systems.

:39:26.:39:28.

The fear that I would have is that we have lost an ability

:39:29.:39:32.

to impact the most important debates of our times, and we need to have

:39:33.:39:36.

as big a voice as possible to solve the big challenges,

:39:37.:39:39.

whether that is climate change, whether that is the mass

:39:40.:39:41.

migration of peoples, whether that is gender

:39:42.:39:43.

equality, or whether that is technological shifts.

:39:44.:39:52.

I fear for us as a country we are looking backwards not

:39:53.:39:55.

forwards and that we would become much diminished.

:39:56.:39:57.

Emily will be at Wembley tomorrow for the really

:39:58.:40:02.

But we leave you with a celebration of the Welsh football

:40:03.:40:08.

team's third goal against Russia, which left them and not

:40:09.:40:11.

Not bad, as the comedian David Schneider noted, for a country

:40:12.:40:16.

Good evening, despite starting on a very wet note, Midsummer's day

:40:17.:41:13.

finished

:41:14.:41:14.

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