27/06/2016 Newsnight


Labour and the Conservatives survey the post referendum battlefield. Who will lead the major parties next?

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I no longer have confidence in his leadership.


Britain's global role remains undiminished.


He can hold on like grim death, but I think it will be the death


We should hold fast to a vision of Britain...


I think we need to go and have the leadership election


TRANSLATION: No informal talks about the exit of Great Britain.


It's clear now that Project Fear is over.


And the country will thank neither the benches in front


And I thought I was having a bad day!


For indulging in internal factioning manoeuvring at this time.


England said it wanted to exit Europe, but not, surely,


2-1 down to Iceland - accompanied by the resignation


of yet another of national leader in the form of Roy Hodgson.


Prepare for an onslaught of Brexit gags - I suggest it maybe wise not


to read the sports pages of continental newspapers


But the football was not the only drama today. It was also quite


a scene in the Commons. The Prime Minister, his tormentors,


Jeremy Corybyn was there in the middle of a coup,


the Chancellor had come out of hiding too,


And Mr Cameron switched out of campaign mode,


It was not the result I wanted, nor the outcome I believe is best


But there can be no doubt about the result.


Of course, I don't take back what I said about the risks.


We've already seen there are going to be adjustments


with our economy, complex constitutional issues


and challenging new negotiation to undertake with Europe.


But I am clear, the Cabinet agreed this morning, that the decision must


be accepted and the process of implementing the decision


in the best possible way must now begin.


There was one tiny point in a response to the SNP leader. Listen.


Let me say this to him, Scotland benefits from being in two


single markets, the United Kingdom and the European single market.


In my view, the best outcome is to try and keep Scotland in both.


Was he telling us that Britain should be in the single market?


That's not what Vote Leave had been saying.


But we'll discuss all this and more.


Let's focus on the Labour Party first.


Last year, it defied the experts, challenged the established order and


Has that experiment in new politics worked?


Not according to the Parliamentary Labour Party, which is


Nor the Shadow Cabinet, which has had


The leadership has been fighting back though.


Our political editor, Nick Watt, reports.


Corbyn in, Tories out! Britain's political earthquake has cost the


Prime Minister his job and, tonight, it forced labour's Civil War onto


the streets of London. In the worst day of his leadership, Jeremy Corbyn


suffered a mass exodus from the Shadow Cabinet. Later, at a bruising


meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party, MPs borrowed from the Tory


rule book as they embraced regicide. A no-confidence vote will be held


tomorrow, prompting a defiant response from Jeremy Corbyn as he


addressed a rally of thousands of his supporters in Parliament Square.


Era don't Don't let those people who wishes ill... Jeremy Corbyn finally


felt at home as he bathed in warm support of his fan base in the


Momentum group in Parliament Square. The contrasting perceptions between


here and there highlighted the battle lines in the power struggle


for the control of the Labour Party. Jeremy Corbyn says it is grassroots


members that should decide its future, whereas Labour MPs say it is


they, as representatives of the wider electorate, who have the


decisive say. He can't be the leader of the Labour Party without having


sufficient support, let alone good support, in the Parliamentary Labour


Party, nor should you be the leader of the Labour Party if you haven't


got the support of the wider membership and the country at large.


Any leader of the Labour Party needs to look at themselves closely and


say, do I command support in both? If the answer is no, your position


is untenable. Newsnight understands that a group of former Labour


frontbenchers have been comparing the operation to unseat Jeremy


Corbyn four months. They had expected to wait another year, but


decided to move after his lacklustre performance in the referendum


campaign, a view highlighted by one of the departing frontbenchers. In


his performance both during the months leading up to the European


referendum and also during the campaign itself, he displayed a lack


of understanding of the fundamental issues relating to migration and the


economy that were crucial, needed to be communicated and simply weren't.


I think we are now in a crisis situation for the country. We have


to have an effective opposition. I knew that Jeremy couldn't provide


that. Senior Labour figures say there is one simple reason above all


else for the coup. They fear that a general election could be held


within months and that Corbyn's failure to connect with traditional


Labour supporters during the referendum could lead to an


electoral wipe-out. You're not talking about one part of the party


that is doing something, this extends all across the party, it is


serious stuff and totally unprecedented. It's very difficult,


I think, for a leader to function for a matter of weeks, let alone


into a general election. One veteran says there is rare unity across most


of the party. He didn't recognise the scale of the challenge, the


special responsibility he has as the leader of the Labour Party. He has


lost that pledge that he gave when he first became leader, to lead a


broad and inclusive party, instead, he is in a position where he has


lost the support of MPs across the political Brett Favre the Labour


Party. There is now such contempt for Jeremy Corbyn that his Labour


enemies are even briefing that he ended up voting to Leave in the


referendum, strenuously denied by his office. One figure at the heart


of the Labour referendum campaign hit back at critics by saying the


reluctant Remainer, as Corbyn's allies dubbed him, was an asset.


Can't argue with the result, in the end, people looked at both arguments


and we were unable to convince them to vote Remain. Where Jeremy was is


much closer to the electorate than many of us. It took a Bend to


trigger the showdown between the leadership and the rest of the


Parliamentary party. Jeremy Corbyn's great hero once likened the Labour


Party to a burden that needs a left and right wing to fly. Relations are


so bad that senior figures are now saying that the bird may split in


two. You have more later news? I've been


speaking to one of the main coup plotters, they say they are planning


to meet tomorrow morning to reach agreement on an agreed candidate but


withstand this, as expected, he loses this vote of no-confidence. --


which would stand. Angela Eagle, Dan Jarvis, that is not to say they are


willing and ready to stand, but these are the name is gaining some


support and they will hopefully get them to stand. It is a change of


tactics. Earlier in the day, the plotters were saying they should not


stand a candidate, if they did, it would be an indication to Momentum


to cause trouble. But things are moving so quickly, they say they


need to move as well. You referred to that ugly Parliamentary meeting?


It was the worst Parliamentary meeting I have stood outside. I


spoke to a current frontbencher and a former member of the Labour


cabinet, and they said to me that Jeremy Corbyn was not listening to


their message and they think there is only one thing for it, the party


will now have to split. I find that unlikely, but that is where you


would have the Parliamentary Labour Party doing a unilateral declaration


of Independence and they would be the main opposition party. Highly


unlikely, but it shows how bad things are. I am joined now by


Richard Burden. a prominent ally of Jeremy Corbyn,


who appointed him today Did you ever dream when you were


elected a year ago, at quite a young age, that he would be shadow Lord


Chancellor by now? I have never dreamt much in politics about that


position or this position, I just want to do the best for the people


and the communities that Labour represents, I haven't given it much


thought, the idea of promotion. Rapid promotion. Is it possible that


this thing can work, with Jeremy Corbyn clearly not having the


support of the Parliamentary party? How does this work? What I would


start off by saying is that I am deeply, deeply disappointed, as


Labour members and voters across the country, the Conservative government


is in trouble, up to its neck, when we have a situation of increased


economic and political uncertainty due to the decision to leave the EU,


that rather than turning fire on the Conservative government, instead,


some Labour MPs have chosen to manufacture an attempt at a


leadership coup and put on the front page of the newspaper, not the


trouble the Conservatives are in, not to damage the Conservatives are


doing to people and communities around the country, but rows in the


internal Parliamentary Labour Party on the front pages, I think that is


very disappointing. I think it is letting the Conservatives off the


hook. What you think Jeremy Corbyn would do if he was a backbench MP


and didn't agree with the leadership of his party? Do you think he would


be restrained in what he says or how he votes, what he does? There is a


difference between principled opposition on this or that policy


and an attempt to capsize the whole ship. If Liz Kendall had been


elected leader, if Andy Burnham had been elected, if Yvette Cooper had


been elected, I would not have been, and my members and people voting for


me would not expect me to be, engaging in an attempt to capsize


the whole ship. I think it is wrong, I think it is a distraction and


letting the Conservatives off the hook. Do you think the party can


survive? Nick Ward has been speaking to people whose opinion is that the


party was blessed. Can it survive in its current form? What the Labour


Party, my colleagues, need to understand is that there is no


future for labour as a vehicle to connect with ordinary working people


and change the lives of working people the length and breadth of the


country, if we return to the politics of what is considered by so


many to be the establishment. There is no future for Labour if they


return to the political and economic status quo, which saw Labour lose


the trust of people. This is about what the Labour Party is about. The


lesson of the European Union referendum is that people out there


are angry at the political and economic establishment. If people


think the way forward for Labour is to return to being perceived as a


party of the political and economic establishment, they are seriously


mistaken. It would be politically and editorially disastrous. Aren't


you saying to people that have profound disagreements with the


direction of the party, it is disloyal, you have to agree with us,


you can't question it? Jeremy Corbyn would never have done that, he


defied the web about 428 times. These people have their consciences,


just as you have yours and there is no reason why they should support


someone they just don't support. The truth is, Jeremy Corbyn was elected


with an overwhelming majority, the biggest mandate that any political


leader in British history has been elected upon. He has only been in


position for nine months. We have had four victories in the


Parliamentary by-elections, in three of which we increased the Labour


share of the votes. We won four mayoral elections. On the European


referendum, Jeremy Corbyn saying that it is not ideal, but on balance


we should change it in favour of ordinary people and make it more


democratic, that resonated more with the electorates than some of those


criticising them, who thought the way forward in working class areas


in the north-east and elsewhere was ticked people that the European


Union was perfect, nobody believed it. You have to admit that Jeremy


Corbyn is a radical, more than the British mainstream. To make it work


from that position, in a general election, you would have to be


supremely confident and supremely united around a position that you


are taking. That is just not the impression your party is giving now.


Do you really think you could win a general election before the end of


this year with the Shadow Cabinet having deserted the leader and with


Jeremy Corbyn still in place? A new Shadow Cabinet is in place. When you


talk about Jeremy Corbyn being radical, I don't think there is


anything radical about proposing a ?10 an hour minimum wage, I don't


think there's anything radical about proposing a massive building


programme of council houses, I don't think there is anything radical in


thinking that Britain made a huge mistake in getting involved in the


Iraq war. We can win the next general election. But if we don't,


then I think some people need to ask themselves this question, did it


help or harm Labour, did it help or harm the people of Labour, the


people that they represent, manufacturing a leadership row,


letting the Tories off the hook and basically making the news story


divisions in the Parliamentary Labour Party, not the mess the


Conservative government is making of this country?


If he loses a motion of no confidence, does he step down and go


to another contest, what happens at that point? First of all, we


shouldn't have a leadership contest. There's more important things to do.


We should be focussing our fire on the Conservatives. If Labour MPs go


through with it, and vote no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn


tomorrow, then I think they've got to understand that in order to


remove Jeremy Corbyn, the duly elected Labour leader nine months


ago with a huge mandate, they have to take part in a democratic


process. All the candidates who stood for Labour, at the last


leadership election, said they wanted to empower members. We


shouldn't be seeking to silence members or disrespect the democratic


choice that they made. You're implying that he can limp on. I'm


not implying anything about limping. If Jeremy Corbyn has to stand in a


leadership election and he is prepared to do so, there's a very


good chance of Jeremy Corbyn being re-elected as leader of the Labour


Party. If he is, what MPs should do then is what they should be doing


now, which is ending the in-fighting, end the the inward


looking behaviour and focussing on the real enmy the Conservative


Government doing so much harm to people and public services in this


country. Thanks ever so much, sorry about that annoying ear piece. No


problem, thank you. Now, the plan had been to take up 14


weeks for a new leader to be selected, rather more than the five


days it took, when Margaret But the 1922 Committee,


which governs the leadership election, decided to expedite that


timetable by a month, so a new leader will be in place


by the 2nd of September. And to meet that deadline,


the candidates have to declare themselves by this Thursday,


so the race is on. Emily has been looking


at the likely runners. I will do everything I can as Prime


Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months, but I do


not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers


our country to its next destination. The naught cull metaphors that


emerge from a Prime Minister close to tears sounded appropriately


seafaringly British, that extraordinary morning. Sure enough


the search for that captain began in earnest this week. The party of


Government, riven by its war over Europe, now has to try harder than


ever to put division behind it. The question is two fold: Who can unify


and who can win, each useless without the other. Gold Medal. It's


no secret that Boris Johnson wants the job. But can the zip wire


drifter, laughed at by the French, pull it off? He can certainly be


serious. I think he increased his stature during the campaign. He did


very well before the Treasury Select Committee answering some very


difficult questions over an extended period. He showed that he'd gone up


a level in people's estimation in the debates. Can he be a unifying?


That takes two to tango. We'll see what the losing side wants. He's


currently the runaway favourite, an irony not lost on his colleagues.


I'm a veteran of three leadership cam painings. I can tell you this --


campaigns, I can tell you this - the favourite never wins. You don't


think it's going to be him? I think he's an admirable candidate. He will


be one of many. If you're telling me he's the favourite, I'm telling you


that the favourite never wins. Boris Johnson is the candidate the party


goes to for its adrenaline fixed described by one MP as a four-year


ride on a big dipper. I understand he has the backing of Rupert Murdoch


and that may count for a lot. He's been described by some in his own


party as "a little bit grubby" his self-interest never too far from the


surface. Don't be surprised if the see a stop Boris campaign gathering


momentum too. Heidi Allen is backing anyone but. For me it is clear that


it was a leadership bid for Boris. Even as recent as February he was


saying that a Brexit vote would cause uncertainty for business and


Government shouldn't be distracted with these things. It seemed obvious


that this was about his desire to be leader rather than putting the


country first. When a man is leading a campaign that stands in front of a


great red butt that says ?350 million for the NHS then says maybe


not, that does not set us on the right path to change the


relationship we have with voters. You don't think people can trust


Boris? I would ask them to consider whether he has the qualities they


want in a leader. Looking for that transparency and having people trust


us again. My in-box is in melt down predominantly people who wanted to


remain and those who voted to Leave and feel duped and felt that they


were sold a pup. In politics, I know we're sales people. Do you trust the


manifesto, do you trust the things we're saying? On this occasion, it's


gone too far. He stood in front of that campaign, for that reason,


people will have lost faith in him. She's not the only one with her


doubts about Boris Johnson. This speech was uploaded onto the


internet's biggest porn site labelling him Britain's dumbest


blonde. Theresa May is expected to put her name in the ring. I think


she's a very formidable woman and I think because maybe she's quite shy,


a lot of people don't see her as, you know, she's not out there


smiling, she's shy and she's very focussed. I think we need somebody


as serious as Theresa May, who knows her stuff and knows Brussels.


An tray Leadson may put her name in too. We heard from the Chancellor


this morning, George Osborne. It will not be plain sailing in the


days ahead. Statesman like, but sombre, the man who once saw his


chance of leading the country riding high, now accepts he's more likely


to have to follow in behind a former rival. The Brexit budget may have


disappeared from the rhetoric, but he was determined not to row back


from, he would say, from a single one of those doom-laden prophecies.


He's weighing up right now whether he could work for Boris Johnson


perhaps as Foreign Secretary or even for Theresa May, but there's little


love loss there. Whatever the choices they need to be fast. Any


names not submitted to the ballot by Thursday won't be in the ring for


the leadership. That perhaps is key. One Remainor tells me this can't


look like an ey based beauty contest. The country is looking to


the Government at a time of national crisis. The demand for grown ups,


what that means, is high. Any late developments on the Tory


leadership front? I had a long conversation with one of George


Osborne's oldest friends today. He told me that he is not going to


stand in this Tory leadership contest, and if you pick up a copy


of the Times you will see an article by George Osborne saying precisely


that. This friend said to me at the moment George Osborne is not


planning to endorse anyone. But he still wants a role in the next


Government. He is leaning towards Boris Johnson and I think we hear


mention of the Foreign Office possibly. He could go down that


route. It's interesting when Boris Johnson launches his campaign later


this week, you will hear him say, I am the unity candidate. I can bring


together Remain and Levy. That is why he's reaching -- Leave. He is


reaching out by mad to the Remain camp. He would love George Osborne


on board. There will be a big Stop Boris campaign. The person being the


biggest beneficiary will be Theresa May.


The Times suggesting that Theresa May has had a surge in support if


the last few days. When the dust settles,


the big issue will be what is our relationship


with the EU, and how is that going Essentially there are three broad


outcomes: That we leave properly,


exiting the EU and the single market and that we no longer


have free movement. That we half leave by going


into the European Economic Area, That's outside the EU,


but in the single market And then - which must


be least likely - There are also three roads


to those destinations - Parliament and Government


could make the decision. MPs would probably choose Norway


at this point, if they could. Then there's the possibility


of a general election to decide, with parties pitching


their view to the voters - the Lib Dems for example have said


they'll campaign to Then there's the second referendum


option, that we talk to the Europeans, and have


a vote at the end of it. Lots of destinations and ways of


getting there. Chris Cook has been thinking


about the practical and legal questions over the journey


on which we are soon to embark. Brexit will be one of the most


complex, all-consuming tasks facing any British Government


since the war. And, right now, there are 1,000


different combinations and permutations about how it


might play out. So, it's worth focusing on just


a few of the biggest moving The first of these moving parts


is something called Article 50. That's Article 50 of the treaty that


underpins the European Union. What that provides for is


a process by which a member But it's important to know


a few details about it. First of all, once we formally


invoke Article 50, there will be a two-year period for us


to negotiate our exit, In fact, we are not


going to invoke that until we have a new Prime Minister


over there in Downing Street. But there is an argument about


whether the new Prime Minister, on their own, will actually be


allowed to invoke Article 50, or whether it will have to be


put through Parliament. So, could a Prime Minister


invoke Article 50 without For the Prime Minister to do that


would involve the executive, in effect, overruling


an act of Parliament. The European Communities Act is


what keeps us in the European Union. By invoking Article 50,


in effect, the Prime Minister is saying, actually,


no longer will this act have force. That is quite a proposition,


for the executive to So, I think there are profound


constitutional and public law The courts may be asked


to give a view on this. The current Prime Minister today


didn't. The issue for triggering Article 50,


the decision will be for the next Prime Minister and the next Cabinet


and the arrangements they put Given that the Commons and Lords


are both pro-Remain, passing a vote may prove a hurdle in itself,


especially if MPs think the plans for Brexit are not


what voters expect. The second issue here is legitimacy,


or how do you get a democratic mandate for the deal


we eventually negotiate? A lot of people voted


Leave because they want If we get a deal like Norway's,


we'll get good access to the single market at the cost of not really


controlling EU immigration. So how do you get a new mandate


to negotiate that? Some people are discussing a second


referendum, perhaps Others, a snap general election


in the next few months. If there were an election,


the new Prime Minister could include principles of negotiation


in their platform, other parties might stand on staying in,


but still, there's room for voters There's a problem with securing


a democratic mandate Basically you're choosing


between seeking a democratic mandate before you start negotiating,


before you invoke Article 50, at which point we can't possibly


know what the deal is going to be. Or at the end of the process,


when time is running out, and you may be choosing


between what is a not very attractive deal


to leave or no deal at all. Some people have put forward


scenarios where the Article 50 declaration is delayed


or never comes. It's important to remember a third


moving part - the economy. The Treasury will get quite worried


if there are long delays, because delays mean uncertainty,


uncertainty about our future trading Uncertainty about our immigration


policy and all of that will depress business activity and investment


in the UK from abroad in particular. There are other moving


parts, like devolution. The other legislatures


cannot block Brexit, but problems in the peace process


will need addressing. So will an appetite for


Scottish independence. Article 50, the mandate and


the economy will determine a lot. Well, earlier I spoke


to Chris Grayling. I began by asking him


whether all models of being outside think we have a number of priorities


as we going to negotiation. Clearly, we want the best possible deal for


the United Kingdom in terms of trade. I think that is common sense


because we are the biggest customer of the European Union, 16% of


exports, it is in their interest they keep access to our market.


Clearly we got a mandate from the people last week to set limits on


the amount of people that come to live and work in the United Kingdom.


Above all, this was a close result so we have to be certain as we going


to negotiation, we are mindful of the fact that people expect us to


stay an outward facing, internationalist country and we want


to be good friends and neighbours of the European Union, even though


we're not going to be part of what they are doing. I tell you why I


ask, Boris Johnson, his piece in the Telegraph, he talked about how


British people will still be able to go and work in the EU, to live, to


travel, to study, to buy homes and settle down. That sounded like he


was potentially embracing a model that might allow free movement,


isn't it? Isn't that what he's saying? The key point is the ability


to control. We are not in the business of saying to people, you


cannot move around the world, you cannot come to United Kingdom to


work, you cannot come here if you have got a job. One of the things we


shouldn't have a 77,000 people a year from within the European Union


turning up in the United Kingdom just to look for a job. Even the


Prime Minister in the past has said that shouldn't happen. That is one


of the things we should be looking at as we go through this process. I


think it is really important, given the fact it is a close result, given


the fact that we all don't want to become Little Britain, we want to be


doing new deals around the world, we don't want to be part of a European


integrationist project, but we want to be good friends and neighbours.


If MPs believe the Norway option, which means you out of the EU, you


are in the single market, but you do have free movement of European


citizens, is that illegitimate? I MPs not allowed to vote for that or


ask the government to vote for that? Is it somehow out of bounds?


Parliament is ultimately sovereign. The clear message from all sides of


the Commons this afternoon, as we discuss the issues that arise from


us visit's referendum result, is that we have clear instructions from


the British people. They have given us a message that say we want to be


outside the European Union, we don't want to be little Britain, but we do


want the ability to set controls on the not people that come in. I'm


just trying to work out, trying to work out a membership of the single


market is still on the table all whether that is now being ruled out?


As I say, membership of the single market is a phrase, what is the


objective, what has the plan been, what will it be now? It is to do


what is in the best interests of the United Kingdom. That is to ensure


that our businesses can continue selling goods and services in the


European Union and vice versa. Whatever you call it, that is the


important thing. We have heard from the German CBI, they want us to


carry on trading normally, it is in all of our interests that should


happen. The other day, Daniel Hannon drew a distinction between free


movement of people and labour. Is that something you would agree with?


There were clear messages to Government about the approach they


want us to take, they want us to leave the European Union, they want


controls over immigration, they want to negotiate trade deals around the


world. These are the messages we got from the referendum. The Government


needs to sit down in a careful, methodical way, planning how we do


that and how we get the best agreements with our partners for the


future. Boris Johnson says we will still be able to work, travel and


live in the rest of the EU, even though he doesn't say they will be


allowed to do that here. Would it not have been better if we had


actually had... If you like, we had nailed down a core vision of what


the outlook would look like? When you take the travel issue, I would


expect little to be able to travel normally, as they do now, take


holidays like they do. He said to live, to work, travel, study, by


homes and settle down? These are things you can do around the world,


not just in the European Union. It is normal for people to be up to


move around sensibly, if they can sort themselves out in terms of


money, if they want to go where they want to go on holiday, it happens


all over the world. Hilux going to be supporting Boris Johnson as


leader? Yourself, maybe? I am not putting my hat into the ring, I am


not making clear what I will do as part of a leadership campaign.


If you earn your living in the City, it was another exhilarating day.


Our business editor, Helen Thomas, is with me.


It was another really ugly day in the markets. The pound dropped


again, down to its lowest level since 1985. In the stock markets,


the FTSE 100 is flaring up quite well. It is really the FTSE 250,


where the damage has been done. It is more reflective of the UK


economy. It is now down 15%. That is since the referendum. Late in the


day, another blow, Standard Poor's, the credit rating agency,


downgraded the UK, stripped us of the triple a rating. That badges the


gold standard, we have had it since 1978. We clung onto it, all the way


through the financial crisis and now it has gone. How significant is


that? You can think of a credit rating of the indication of the


likelihood of default. Lower rating means higher borrowing costs,


sometimes. Nobody thinks the UK Government is going to default on


its debts, borrowing costs have fallen in recent days. But you can


also think about the credit rating as an indication of how attractive a


place is to invest. In that contest, that context, it is pretty damning.


It talks about reassessing the institutional framework of the UK,


that a polite way of saying it is falling apart at the seams. It is


pretty gloomy on the outlook confidence for growth. They think


our membership of the European Union helped the standing of the pound,


helped enhance London's position as a financial centre and helped


attract investment. The risk is, in their view, it starts to unravel.


If we in Britain are confused about exactly what we want


in the Article 50 world, it's not impossible


There are 27 other members who have to agree on a line.


Our diplomatic editor, Mark Urban, has been on the continent


since the referendum trying to find out where the debate


It's Monday, so it must be Berlin, where the big beasts of the EU


Since I started this, one thing has become very clear, there are a lot


of people, institutions, countries, that have a lot of grudges against


Britain due to all sorts of past battles, the Cameron package that


was negotiated earlier this year, all sorts of reasons. They are


delighted that Britain is leaving and they are effectively saying, can


we help you with your bags? That includes Jean-Claude Juncker, the


head of the European Parliament, and we have had statements from the


leaders of France, Italy and Belgium, which I think you could


also put in that category. What has been less evident, what I was


expecting to see, was the emergence of a more understanding camp, some


helpful remarks from the leader of Poland today, but apart from that we


haven't really seen that emerge. Of course, not all EU members are


created equal, whether it is one almighty powerful one at the centre


of the alliance, now defining the policy of the 27, Germany. It is


quite clear from interventions they have already made, they are going to


be key players in this. The annual German-French


People's Festival has been It started when Europe's


old adversaries were becoming friends and a Franco-German engine,


or partnership, powered the EU. But, these days, the French troops


are long gone from Berlin and that alliance doesn't seem


quite so equal, either. And Germans also are taking


potshots at the EU. Arno owns this stall,


and he is quite a Eurosceptic. He wants the Deutschmark back


and urges his leader not to be too But in the rest of Germany,


there are other ideas about how best Many of those around


Chancellor Merkel reject leniency, arguing if Britain is leaving,


it needs to say what it wants From outside to Britain,


you see a Prime Minister who wants You see potential candidates


for a succession of him. They also say they don't want to,


they hesitate concerning that thing. The parliament is saying nothing


on that, therefore we are At this architect's office


in Berlin, they'd like a plan, too. It's a German outpost


of a British firm and, already, they are worried about potential


clients having their confidence undermined and the effect


on their mixed German They won't make it easy for Britain


to negotiate deals. I think the companies


will somehow take a hit, like we will take


the hit and carry on. It's just a shame, basically,


to make it also difficult. I'm not talking about the business


relationships here, talking about personal


relationships as well. Especially if, like every


company that has branches abroad, there is a lot


of personal lives involved. As for Germany's continued exports


to Britain, the prediction of economic experts here


is of a slight drop, The real crux of coming negotiations


will be political and nobody expects The UK is in a very bad


bargaining position. The only thing it can do now is,


we are going to postpone the process, and therefore impose


so much pain on ourselves that you That is a very destructive process,


and, ultimately, the UK will have to pay the price for keeping some


relationship to the euro area So, I doubt it will get


a very favourable deal. When it came to how and when those


negotiations might start, it was to Berlin that the French


and Italian leaders came today. President Hollande gave the distinct


impression that Britain couldn't be TRANSLATION: Nothing


is worse than uncertainty. Uncertainty gets in the way


of political decisions. It also gets in the way


of financial decisions. Matteo Renzi says anything less


than a speedy Brexit would be Britain shouldn't be bounced out,


and will choose its own TRANSLATION: We agree that Article


50 of the European treaties The member state wanting to leave


the European Union has to apply to the European Council and,


before this application, So, they departed, having set


the stage for tomorrow's The Merkel view, for the time being,


is holding that Britain should be allowed time to change its mind


before it invokes Article 50. But once that happens,


the real challenge for the Germans will be whether the other allies


agree to the sort of terms they would want to give Britain


on the outside. Within the market is a harmonised


market, with the four liberties, you can move your money as you want,


you can move goods where you want, you can do services where you want


and you have the free movement Taking some things out


of the single market, only to keep Britain in the single


market, I think this At the German-French festival


on Berlin's outskirts... An entertainer belts out


the hits from yesteryear. The old refrains about the benefits


of EU membership were wearing But the latest polling suggests few


Germans want to walks Instead, Chancellor Merkel has


public support to get the UK's divorce over with as quickly


and cleanly as possible, as Germany, increasingly,


sets the tone for Back on Thursday night,


results night, the first declaration came from Gibraltar


and it was the Remain side's best Gibraltarians worry that Brexit


might upset the delicate relationship they have with Spain,


which lost the territory in 1704 and would rather


like to have it back. Gabriel Gatehouse has been talking


to the Chief Minister of Gibraltar, including on one idea,


that parts of the EU might stay in the EU,


while other parts leave. If there is one part


of the UK that definitely, definitely doesn't want to leave


the European Union, it is this. Less than ten miles from the coast


of North Africa, Gibraltar voted There are 30,000 people living


on the Rock, only 823 of them said Gibraltar is more pro-European


than anywhere in Britain. Newsnight has learned that


Gibraltar's government is working on a plan to stay in the union,


and it's looking for allies. In his first broadcast interview


since the referendum, the territory's Chief Minister told


us he was talking to Scotland's Nicola Sturgeon


about various options. Well, there are potential


different formulas out there. This is like a kaleidoscope that has


not yet settled. One of them may be the formula that


Denmark used in the 1970s before the Lisbon Treaty and before Article


50 was even invented, to simply strip out a part


of the territory that doesn't want to stay part


of the European Union. The member state is still defined


as Denmark, but it no I can imagine a situation where some


parts of what is today the member state United Kingdom are stripped


out and others remain. That means that we don't have


to apply again for access, we simply remain with the access


that we have today and those parts that leave are then given


a different sort of access, which is negotiated,


but not necessarily under The governments of Gibraltar


and Scotland may share a desire to stay in the EU,


but on the subject The SNP wants independence,


Gibraltarians almost without exception want


to remain part of Britain. Immediately after the referendum,


Spain raised the issue The Spanish flag on the Rock


is closer than it was before, Now, that is absolute anathema


to almost everyone here. London has reiterated its commitment


to Gibraltar, but the Foreign Secretary said that the territory's


interests will be harder to protect Anybody that thinks this is a time


to propose joint sovereignty or they are going to get any


millimetre of advantage in respect to the sovereignty of Gibraltar


is completely wrong. 10,000 Spanish workers cross


into Gibraltar every day. They and the Gibraltarians have


been reassured nothing But the reality is that,


at the moment, no-one really knows how Brexit will play


itself out here. Earlier, I spoke to Kristalina


Georgieva, the vice president of the European Commission,


the executive body of the EU. I began by asking her


whether she regretted the UK wasn't offered an emergency brake on free


movement, In the discussions that have taken


place, every effort has been made by the Commission to offer a deal


that is fair for the United Kingdom and for the rest


of the European Union. At that process, we thought we'd got


to a point when the Prime Minister of UK had something good to offer


to its people. But my impression is that


during the debates around Brexit, this deal disappeared,


nobody talked about it. The issues that have been discussed


actually had nothing to do The 27 members, the Commission,


you guys, do you think you will now look into your souls and say -


we need to listen more? And we need to take account


of the scepticism that is running not just in the UK but across


other countries too? We are facing an existential


challenge as a union. We ought to make it possible


for those of us, that want to and have to integrate


further to do it and for those who want to be losing


union to also do it. This is not at all easy,


but with or without Brexit, this Of course, we need to continue


to look into the mirror and ask ourselves, what is it that we can


do better for Europe How long do you think these


negotiations, the divorce negotiation, how long


is this going to take - In the end of these two years,


one of two things will happen - either negotiations are completed


and then there is a new relation or there may be a need


for prolongation, but for that, there has to be unanimity among


the heads of government of the European Union,


the 27 and of course, the UK. We only can, at this point of time,


wait for the clock to start ticking and then, roll our sleeves and work


together for the best possible outcome we can get


under the circumstances. No punishment, no trying to hurt


the UK in order to teach We are witnessing such a turmoil


at the moment that the least we can do is just to keep calm


and try to resolve a very difficult problem for


the benefit of all our people. The wish of all of us


is that we bring a resolution that is as positive as it can be


under very difficult circumstances. The Polish Foreign Minister,


whose name I'm not going to try to pronounce, has blamed


the commission for a lot going wrong and said,


you know, this is a crisis He wants to downgrade


the Commission. I think he's suggested that


Jean-Claude Juncker should resign as a result of everything


that has happened. Do you have some sympathy


with his analysis? You know, my sympathy is with us


all of us, we are facing a very The financial markets are telling us


that they're very nervous around I think last we need is more turmoil


and more finger pointing. It would be healthiest


if we are to concentrate on the universe of problems we have


to solve and work together Let's reflect on where we are his


evening, at 11.20pm. I'm joined by Zoe Williams


of the Guardian and Tom Newton-Dunn, Can Jeremy Corbyn survive? You say


that like we rehearsed it (! ) It depends what you mean by "survive".


I don't think he's going to go quietly. I don't think he will


submit to the vote of no confidence. I don't think he will allow a new


leadership election without his name on the ticket. But do I think he's


going to end up victorious in the long run? No, I don't. Is this a


fight to the death of the Labour Party, then, Tom, is that what the


plan is, they're each going to go on wrestling into the mud? It's a rock


and a very hard place coming together. It's incredibly hard to


see how on earth anyone can win all this. There has to be a final death


of one or the other. There are candidates who could be unity


candidates? That is a classic suggestion, this person who never


upsets anybody, she's a good candidate. You cannot have, you


know, what the people who voted for Jeremy Corbyn want is a Pablo


Iglesias, they want a left-wing, big ideas, new model person. I


completely understand and support that. I don't think Jeremy Corbyn


has been it. But I do not think what we're looking at is the rock and the


hard place. We're not looking at Blairites versus the far left any


more. We're looking at a huge number of people who the Corbyn camp would


say don't even have skin in the game because they're not Blairites.


They're not labourites either. They're from all over the place. Who


is your candidate, who do you want? You have to have a Plan B before you


reject Plan A. You know I hate committing but I would be delighted


to see Lisa Nandy standing. I would be delighted for Starmer tarp to


stand. Is there a -- Keir Starmer standing. Who else is there? Dan


Jarvis, Chukka. I don't think you're talking about moderates. Who would


you call that lot then? The whole conception of what moderation is has


changed so much that people who previously would have been seen as


on the right of the party or on the nothing of the party, Dan Jarvis is


on the nothing of the party. On the subject of moderates, there has been


chatter about hey, why don't the right of the Labour Party and the


left of the Conservative Party they're all Remainors, why not get


together and create a new force in the centre. It's a wonderful idea.


We have this debate once every two years in politics. We had the purple


party, blues and yellows come together. A grand coalition. Why


does it not happen? Two reasons: One, the SDP, everybody remembers


what happens to them. I actually don't. Older people like us do. Two,


there is no base. Activists are generally on one side, the Tory


activists are quite right-wing, Labour activists more left-wing.


No-one's in the middle to go out, deliver your leverlets. You don't


need to deliver leaflets now. You need a bit of that. Here's the


thing, I don't think we're talking about the left of the Tories and the


right of the Labour here. When you talk about people who wanted to


Remain it's not a left-right issue. It's a huge question and many of us


are devastated by the result. We're devastated not from a left-wing


point of view from a sheer vandalism point of view. You could create an


alliance of people who felt that this was an incredibly vandalistic


act. So elect us and we stay in the EU. You get over the EU thing, at


some point we get over the EU thing and then you have left, right,


austerity versus spending. You're speaking as though this would be a


disaster because it would be chaotic. Look what we're in now - we


don't have a Prime Minister or a leader of the Opposition. Could


Labour campaign and say, let's stay in? Is that plausible? I think it's


extremely dangerous. Clearly it's plausible. You get on extremely well


with Zoe and others, they risk doing a Scotland - And you lose them all.


We have 40 seconds on the Conservative party. Can they be, can


they heal this more easily than Labour's problems? The obvious route


for them to heal it, I cannot see what, how they would make it work if


they elect Theresa May because Boris is such a divisive and toxic figure


- I don't see how they make it work. They have a spurt of energy. It will


be bitter and bloody, they will because of power. They love power.


Ministers want to be ministers and that's going to be enough to get


them to shut up eventually. They're always in power, they're just only


sometimes in office. That's philosophical. To be continued.


That's all we have time for. I'm back in the chair tomorrow, until


then, have a very good night. It's hard to believe we're entering


into the final few days of June with no sign of any significant settled


summer-like weather, in fact plenty of rain to come across the bulk of


the country over the next few days, the heaviest is


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