27/06/2016 Newsnight


27/06/2016

Labour and the Conservatives survey the post referendum battlefield. Who will lead the major parties next?


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I no longer have confidence in his leadership.

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Britain's global role remains undiminished.

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He can hold on like grim death, but I think it will be the death

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We should hold fast to a vision of Britain...

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I think we need to go and have the leadership election

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TRANSLATION: No informal talks about the exit of Great Britain.

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It's clear now that Project Fear is over.

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And the country will thank neither the benches in front

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And I thought I was having a bad day!

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For indulging in internal factioning manoeuvring at this time.

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England said it wanted to exit Europe, but not, surely,

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2-1 down to Iceland - accompanied by the resignation

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of yet another of national leader in the form of Roy Hodgson.

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Prepare for an onslaught of Brexit gags - I suggest it maybe wise not

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to read the sports pages of continental newspapers

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But the football was not the only drama today. It was also quite

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a scene in the Commons. The Prime Minister, his tormentors,

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Jeremy Corybyn was there in the middle of a coup,

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the Chancellor had come out of hiding too,

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And Mr Cameron switched out of campaign mode,

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It was not the result I wanted, nor the outcome I believe is best

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But there can be no doubt about the result.

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Of course, I don't take back what I said about the risks.

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We've already seen there are going to be adjustments

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with our economy, complex constitutional issues

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and challenging new negotiation to undertake with Europe.

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But I am clear, the Cabinet agreed this morning, that the decision must

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be accepted and the process of implementing the decision

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in the best possible way must now begin.

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There was one tiny point in a response to the SNP leader. Listen.

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Let me say this to him, Scotland benefits from being in two

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single markets, the United Kingdom and the European single market.

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In my view, the best outcome is to try and keep Scotland in both.

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Was he telling us that Britain should be in the single market?

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That's not what Vote Leave had been saying.

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But we'll discuss all this and more.

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Let's focus on the Labour Party first.

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Last year, it defied the experts, challenged the established order and

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Has that experiment in new politics worked?

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Not according to the Parliamentary Labour Party, which is

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Nor the Shadow Cabinet, which has had

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The leadership has been fighting back though.

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Our political editor, Nick Watt, reports.

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Corbyn in, Tories out! Britain's political earthquake has cost the

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Prime Minister his job and, tonight, it forced labour's Civil War onto

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the streets of London. In the worst day of his leadership, Jeremy Corbyn

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suffered a mass exodus from the Shadow Cabinet. Later, at a bruising

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meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party, MPs borrowed from the Tory

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rule book as they embraced regicide. A no-confidence vote will be held

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tomorrow, prompting a defiant response from Jeremy Corbyn as he

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addressed a rally of thousands of his supporters in Parliament Square.

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Era don't Don't let those people who wishes ill... Jeremy Corbyn finally

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felt at home as he bathed in warm support of his fan base in the

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Momentum group in Parliament Square. The contrasting perceptions between

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here and there highlighted the battle lines in the power struggle

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for the control of the Labour Party. Jeremy Corbyn says it is grassroots

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members that should decide its future, whereas Labour MPs say it is

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they, as representatives of the wider electorate, who have the

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decisive say. He can't be the leader of the Labour Party without having

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sufficient support, let alone good support, in the Parliamentary Labour

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Party, nor should you be the leader of the Labour Party if you haven't

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got the support of the wider membership and the country at large.

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Any leader of the Labour Party needs to look at themselves closely and

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say, do I command support in both? If the answer is no, your position

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is untenable. Newsnight understands that a group of former Labour

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frontbenchers have been comparing the operation to unseat Jeremy

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Corbyn four months. They had expected to wait another year, but

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decided to move after his lacklustre performance in the referendum

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campaign, a view highlighted by one of the departing frontbenchers. In

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his performance both during the months leading up to the European

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referendum and also during the campaign itself, he displayed a lack

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of understanding of the fundamental issues relating to migration and the

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economy that were crucial, needed to be communicated and simply weren't.

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I think we are now in a crisis situation for the country. We have

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to have an effective opposition. I knew that Jeremy couldn't provide

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that. Senior Labour figures say there is one simple reason above all

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else for the coup. They fear that a general election could be held

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within months and that Corbyn's failure to connect with traditional

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Labour supporters during the referendum could lead to an

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electoral wipe-out. You're not talking about one part of the party

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that is doing something, this extends all across the party, it is

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serious stuff and totally unprecedented. It's very difficult,

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I think, for a leader to function for a matter of weeks, let alone

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into a general election. One veteran says there is rare unity across most

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of the party. He didn't recognise the scale of the challenge, the

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special responsibility he has as the leader of the Labour Party. He has

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lost that pledge that he gave when he first became leader, to lead a

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broad and inclusive party, instead, he is in a position where he has

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lost the support of MPs across the political Brett Favre the Labour

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Party. There is now such contempt for Jeremy Corbyn that his Labour

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enemies are even briefing that he ended up voting to Leave in the

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referendum, strenuously denied by his office. One figure at the heart

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of the Labour referendum campaign hit back at critics by saying the

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reluctant Remainer, as Corbyn's allies dubbed him, was an asset.

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Can't argue with the result, in the end, people looked at both arguments

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and we were unable to convince them to vote Remain. Where Jeremy was is

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much closer to the electorate than many of us. It took a Bend to

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trigger the showdown between the leadership and the rest of the

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Parliamentary party. Jeremy Corbyn's great hero once likened the Labour

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Party to a burden that needs a left and right wing to fly. Relations are

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so bad that senior figures are now saying that the bird may split in

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two. You have more later news? I've been

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speaking to one of the main coup plotters, they say they are planning

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to meet tomorrow morning to reach agreement on an agreed candidate but

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withstand this, as expected, he loses this vote of no-confidence. --

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which would stand. Angela Eagle, Dan Jarvis, that is not to say they are

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willing and ready to stand, but these are the name is gaining some

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support and they will hopefully get them to stand. It is a change of

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tactics. Earlier in the day, the plotters were saying they should not

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stand a candidate, if they did, it would be an indication to Momentum

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to cause trouble. But things are moving so quickly, they say they

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need to move as well. You referred to that ugly Parliamentary meeting?

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It was the worst Parliamentary meeting I have stood outside. I

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spoke to a current frontbencher and a former member of the Labour

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cabinet, and they said to me that Jeremy Corbyn was not listening to

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their message and they think there is only one thing for it, the party

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will now have to split. I find that unlikely, but that is where you

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would have the Parliamentary Labour Party doing a unilateral declaration

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of Independence and they would be the main opposition party. Highly

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unlikely, but it shows how bad things are. I am joined now by

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Richard Burden. a prominent ally of Jeremy Corbyn,

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who appointed him today Did you ever dream when you were

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elected a year ago, at quite a young age, that he would be shadow Lord

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Chancellor by now? I have never dreamt much in politics about that

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position or this position, I just want to do the best for the people

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and the communities that Labour represents, I haven't given it much

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thought, the idea of promotion. Rapid promotion. Is it possible that

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this thing can work, with Jeremy Corbyn clearly not having the

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support of the Parliamentary party? How does this work? What I would

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start off by saying is that I am deeply, deeply disappointed, as

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Labour members and voters across the country, the Conservative government

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is in trouble, up to its neck, when we have a situation of increased

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economic and political uncertainty due to the decision to leave the EU,

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that rather than turning fire on the Conservative government, instead,

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some Labour MPs have chosen to manufacture an attempt at a

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leadership coup and put on the front page of the newspaper, not the

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trouble the Conservatives are in, not to damage the Conservatives are

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doing to people and communities around the country, but rows in the

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internal Parliamentary Labour Party on the front pages, I think that is

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very disappointing. I think it is letting the Conservatives off the

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hook. What you think Jeremy Corbyn would do if he was a backbench MP

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and didn't agree with the leadership of his party? Do you think he would

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be restrained in what he says or how he votes, what he does? There is a

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difference between principled opposition on this or that policy

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and an attempt to capsize the whole ship. If Liz Kendall had been

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elected leader, if Andy Burnham had been elected, if Yvette Cooper had

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been elected, I would not have been, and my members and people voting for

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me would not expect me to be, engaging in an attempt to capsize

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the whole ship. I think it is wrong, I think it is a distraction and

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letting the Conservatives off the hook. Do you think the party can

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survive? Nick Ward has been speaking to people whose opinion is that the

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party was blessed. Can it survive in its current form? What the Labour

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Party, my colleagues, need to understand is that there is no

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future for labour as a vehicle to connect with ordinary working people

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and change the lives of working people the length and breadth of the

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country, if we return to the politics of what is considered by so

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many to be the establishment. There is no future for Labour if they

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return to the political and economic status quo, which saw Labour lose

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the trust of people. This is about what the Labour Party is about. The

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lesson of the European Union referendum is that people out there

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are angry at the political and economic establishment. If people

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think the way forward for Labour is to return to being perceived as a

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party of the political and economic establishment, they are seriously

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mistaken. It would be politically and editorially disastrous. Aren't

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you saying to people that have profound disagreements with the

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direction of the party, it is disloyal, you have to agree with us,

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you can't question it? Jeremy Corbyn would never have done that, he

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defied the web about 428 times. These people have their consciences,

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just as you have yours and there is no reason why they should support

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someone they just don't support. The truth is, Jeremy Corbyn was elected

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with an overwhelming majority, the biggest mandate that any political

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leader in British history has been elected upon. He has only been in

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position for nine months. We have had four victories in the

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Parliamentary by-elections, in three of which we increased the Labour

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share of the votes. We won four mayoral elections. On the European

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referendum, Jeremy Corbyn saying that it is not ideal, but on balance

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we should change it in favour of ordinary people and make it more

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democratic, that resonated more with the electorates than some of those

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criticising them, who thought the way forward in working class areas

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in the north-east and elsewhere was ticked people that the European

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Union was perfect, nobody believed it. You have to admit that Jeremy

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Corbyn is a radical, more than the British mainstream. To make it work

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from that position, in a general election, you would have to be

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supremely confident and supremely united around a position that you

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are taking. That is just not the impression your party is giving now.

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Do you really think you could win a general election before the end of

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this year with the Shadow Cabinet having deserted the leader and with

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Jeremy Corbyn still in place? A new Shadow Cabinet is in place. When you

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talk about Jeremy Corbyn being radical, I don't think there is

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anything radical about proposing a ?10 an hour minimum wage, I don't

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think there's anything radical about proposing a massive building

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programme of council houses, I don't think there is anything radical in

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thinking that Britain made a huge mistake in getting involved in the

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Iraq war. We can win the next general election. But if we don't,

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then I think some people need to ask themselves this question, did it

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help or harm Labour, did it help or harm the people of Labour, the

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people that they represent, manufacturing a leadership row,

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letting the Tories off the hook and basically making the news story

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divisions in the Parliamentary Labour Party, not the mess the

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Conservative government is making of this country?

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If he loses a motion of no confidence, does he step down and go

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to another contest, what happens at that point? First of all, we

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shouldn't have a leadership contest. There's more important things to do.

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We should be focussing our fire on the Conservatives. If Labour MPs go

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through with it, and vote no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn

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tomorrow, then I think they've got to understand that in order to

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remove Jeremy Corbyn, the duly elected Labour leader nine months

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ago with a huge mandate, they have to take part in a democratic

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process. All the candidates who stood for Labour, at the last

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leadership election, said they wanted to empower members. We

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shouldn't be seeking to silence members or disrespect the democratic

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choice that they made. You're implying that he can limp on. I'm

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not implying anything about limping. If Jeremy Corbyn has to stand in a

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leadership election and he is prepared to do so, there's a very

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good chance of Jeremy Corbyn being re-elected as leader of the Labour

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Party. If he is, what MPs should do then is what they should be doing

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now, which is ending the in-fighting, end the the inward

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looking behaviour and focussing on the real enmy the Conservative

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Government doing so much harm to people and public services in this

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country. Thanks ever so much, sorry about that annoying ear piece. No

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problem, thank you. Now, the plan had been to take up 14

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weeks for a new leader to be selected, rather more than the five

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days it took, when Margaret But the 1922 Committee,

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which governs the leadership election, decided to expedite that

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timetable by a month, so a new leader will be in place

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by the 2nd of September. And to meet that deadline,

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the candidates have to declare themselves by this Thursday,

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so the race is on. Emily has been looking

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at the likely runners. I will do everything I can as Prime

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Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months, but I do

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not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers

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our country to its next destination. The naught cull metaphors that

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emerge from a Prime Minister close to tears sounded appropriately

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seafaringly British, that extraordinary morning. Sure enough

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the search for that captain began in earnest this week. The party of

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Government, riven by its war over Europe, now has to try harder than

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ever to put division behind it. The question is two fold: Who can unify

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and who can win, each useless without the other. Gold Medal. It's

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no secret that Boris Johnson wants the job. But can the zip wire

:17:44.:17:48.

drifter, laughed at by the French, pull it off? He can certainly be

:17:49.:17:52.

serious. I think he increased his stature during the campaign. He did

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very well before the Treasury Select Committee answering some very

:17:57.:17:58.

difficult questions over an extended period. He showed that he'd gone up

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a level in people's estimation in the debates. Can he be a unifying?

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That takes two to tango. We'll see what the losing side wants. He's

:18:10.:18:14.

currently the runaway favourite, an irony not lost on his colleagues.

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I'm a veteran of three leadership cam painings. I can tell you this --

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campaigns, I can tell you this - the favourite never wins. You don't

:18:25.:18:28.

think it's going to be him? I think he's an admirable candidate. He will

:18:29.:18:31.

be one of many. If you're telling me he's the favourite, I'm telling you

:18:32.:18:36.

that the favourite never wins. Boris Johnson is the candidate the party

:18:37.:18:41.

goes to for its adrenaline fixed described by one MP as a four-year

:18:42.:18:45.

ride on a big dipper. I understand he has the backing of Rupert Murdoch

:18:46.:18:49.

and that may count for a lot. He's been described by some in his own

:18:50.:18:55.

party as "a little bit grubby" his self-interest never too far from the

:18:56.:19:00.

surface. Don't be surprised if the see a stop Boris campaign gathering

:19:01.:19:05.

momentum too. Heidi Allen is backing anyone but. For me it is clear that

:19:06.:19:10.

it was a leadership bid for Boris. Even as recent as February he was

:19:11.:19:15.

saying that a Brexit vote would cause uncertainty for business and

:19:16.:19:17.

Government shouldn't be distracted with these things. It seemed obvious

:19:18.:19:22.

that this was about his desire to be leader rather than putting the

:19:23.:19:25.

country first. When a man is leading a campaign that stands in front of a

:19:26.:19:30.

great red butt that says ?350 million for the NHS then says maybe

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not, that does not set us on the right path to change the

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relationship we have with voters. You don't think people can trust

:19:38.:19:41.

Boris? I would ask them to consider whether he has the qualities they

:19:42.:19:46.

want in a leader. Looking for that transparency and having people trust

:19:47.:19:52.

us again. My in-box is in melt down predominantly people who wanted to

:19:53.:19:56.

remain and those who voted to Leave and feel duped and felt that they

:19:57.:20:01.

were sold a pup. In politics, I know we're sales people. Do you trust the

:20:02.:20:05.

manifesto, do you trust the things we're saying? On this occasion, it's

:20:06.:20:09.

gone too far. He stood in front of that campaign, for that reason,

:20:10.:20:12.

people will have lost faith in him. She's not the only one with her

:20:13.:20:16.

doubts about Boris Johnson. This speech was uploaded onto the

:20:17.:20:23.

internet's biggest porn site labelling him Britain's dumbest

:20:24.:20:26.

blonde. Theresa May is expected to put her name in the ring. I think

:20:27.:20:33.

she's a very formidable woman and I think because maybe she's quite shy,

:20:34.:20:41.

a lot of people don't see her as, you know, she's not out there

:20:42.:20:44.

smiling, she's shy and she's very focussed. I think we need somebody

:20:45.:20:48.

as serious as Theresa May, who knows her stuff and knows Brussels.

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An tray Leadson may put her name in too. We heard from the Chancellor

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this morning, George Osborne. It will not be plain sailing in the

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days ahead. Statesman like, but sombre, the man who once saw his

:21:12.:21:14.

chance of leading the country riding high, now accepts he's more likely

:21:15.:21:18.

to have to follow in behind a former rival. The Brexit budget may have

:21:19.:21:23.

disappeared from the rhetoric, but he was determined not to row back

:21:24.:21:29.

from, he would say, from a single one of those doom-laden prophecies.

:21:30.:21:34.

He's weighing up right now whether he could work for Boris Johnson

:21:35.:21:38.

perhaps as Foreign Secretary or even for Theresa May, but there's little

:21:39.:21:41.

love loss there. Whatever the choices they need to be fast. Any

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names not submitted to the ballot by Thursday won't be in the ring for

:21:45.:21:49.

the leadership. That perhaps is key. One Remainor tells me this can't

:21:50.:21:53.

look like an ey based beauty contest. The country is looking to

:21:54.:21:56.

the Government at a time of national crisis. The demand for grown ups,

:21:57.:22:00.

what that means, is high. Any late developments on the Tory

:22:01.:22:10.

leadership front? I had a long conversation with one of George

:22:11.:22:13.

Osborne's oldest friends today. He told me that he is not going to

:22:14.:22:17.

stand in this Tory leadership contest, and if you pick up a copy

:22:18.:22:22.

of the Times you will see an article by George Osborne saying precisely

:22:23.:22:25.

that. This friend said to me at the moment George Osborne is not

:22:26.:22:28.

planning to endorse anyone. But he still wants a role in the next

:22:29.:22:34.

Government. He is leaning towards Boris Johnson and I think we hear

:22:35.:22:36.

mention of the Foreign Office possibly. He could go down that

:22:37.:22:41.

route. It's interesting when Boris Johnson launches his campaign later

:22:42.:22:45.

this week, you will hear him say, I am the unity candidate. I can bring

:22:46.:22:50.

together Remain and Levy. That is why he's reaching -- Leave. He is

:22:51.:22:55.

reaching out by mad to the Remain camp. He would love George Osborne

:22:56.:22:59.

on board. There will be a big Stop Boris campaign. The person being the

:23:00.:23:04.

biggest beneficiary will be Theresa May.

:23:05.:23:07.

The Times suggesting that Theresa May has had a surge in support if

:23:08.:23:09.

the last few days. When the dust settles,

:23:10.:23:12.

the big issue will be what is our relationship

:23:13.:23:15.

with the EU, and how is that going Essentially there are three broad

:23:16.:23:17.

outcomes: That we leave properly,

:23:18.:23:21.

exiting the EU and the single market and that we no longer

:23:22.:23:24.

have free movement. That we half leave by going

:23:25.:23:27.

into the European Economic Area, That's outside the EU,

:23:28.:23:30.

but in the single market And then - which must

:23:31.:23:35.

be least likely - There are also three roads

:23:36.:23:40.

to those destinations - Parliament and Government

:23:41.:23:49.

could make the decision. MPs would probably choose Norway

:23:50.:23:51.

at this point, if they could. Then there's the possibility

:23:52.:23:54.

of a general election to decide, with parties pitching

:23:55.:23:57.

their view to the voters - the Lib Dems for example have said

:23:58.:24:00.

they'll campaign to Then there's the second referendum

:24:01.:24:03.

option, that we talk to the Europeans, and have

:24:04.:24:09.

a vote at the end of it. Lots of destinations and ways of

:24:10.:24:12.

getting there. Chris Cook has been thinking

:24:13.:24:21.

about the practical and legal questions over the journey

:24:22.:24:23.

on which we are soon to embark. Brexit will be one of the most

:24:24.:24:29.

complex, all-consuming tasks facing any British Government

:24:30.:24:32.

since the war. And, right now, there are 1,000

:24:33.:24:35.

different combinations and permutations about how it

:24:36.:24:37.

might play out. So, it's worth focusing on just

:24:38.:24:39.

a few of the biggest moving The first of these moving parts

:24:40.:24:42.

is something called Article 50. That's Article 50 of the treaty that

:24:43.:24:52.

underpins the European Union. What that provides for is

:24:53.:24:55.

a process by which a member But it's important to know

:24:56.:24:57.

a few details about it. First of all, once we formally

:24:58.:25:02.

invoke Article 50, there will be a two-year period for us

:25:03.:25:05.

to negotiate our exit, In fact, we are not

:25:06.:25:07.

going to invoke that until we have a new Prime Minister

:25:08.:25:14.

over there in Downing Street. But there is an argument about

:25:15.:25:17.

whether the new Prime Minister, on their own, will actually be

:25:18.:25:19.

allowed to invoke Article 50, or whether it will have to be

:25:20.:25:22.

put through Parliament. So, could a Prime Minister

:25:23.:25:24.

invoke Article 50 without For the Prime Minister to do that

:25:25.:25:27.

would involve the executive, in effect, overruling

:25:28.:25:32.

an act of Parliament. The European Communities Act is

:25:33.:25:37.

what keeps us in the European Union. By invoking Article 50,

:25:38.:25:42.

in effect, the Prime Minister is saying, actually,

:25:43.:25:45.

no longer will this act have force. That is quite a proposition,

:25:46.:25:49.

for the executive to So, I think there are profound

:25:50.:25:53.

constitutional and public law The courts may be asked

:25:54.:25:58.

to give a view on this. The current Prime Minister today

:25:59.:26:04.

didn't. The issue for triggering Article 50,

:26:05.:26:06.

the decision will be for the next Prime Minister and the next Cabinet

:26:07.:26:10.

and the arrangements they put Given that the Commons and Lords

:26:11.:26:12.

are both pro-Remain, passing a vote may prove a hurdle in itself,

:26:13.:26:18.

especially if MPs think the plans for Brexit are not

:26:19.:26:21.

what voters expect. The second issue here is legitimacy,

:26:22.:26:27.

or how do you get a democratic mandate for the deal

:26:28.:26:30.

we eventually negotiate? A lot of people voted

:26:31.:26:34.

Leave because they want If we get a deal like Norway's,

:26:35.:26:37.

we'll get good access to the single market at the cost of not really

:26:38.:26:43.

controlling EU immigration. So how do you get a new mandate

:26:44.:26:47.

to negotiate that? Some people are discussing a second

:26:48.:26:50.

referendum, perhaps Others, a snap general election

:26:51.:26:53.

in the next few months. If there were an election,

:26:54.:27:00.

the new Prime Minister could include principles of negotiation

:27:01.:27:03.

in their platform, other parties might stand on staying in,

:27:04.:27:06.

but still, there's room for voters There's a problem with securing

:27:07.:27:09.

a democratic mandate Basically you're choosing

:27:10.:27:15.

between seeking a democratic mandate before you start negotiating,

:27:16.:27:21.

before you invoke Article 50, at which point we can't possibly

:27:22.:27:25.

know what the deal is going to be. Or at the end of the process,

:27:26.:27:29.

when time is running out, and you may be choosing

:27:30.:27:32.

between what is a not very attractive deal

:27:33.:27:35.

to leave or no deal at all. Some people have put forward

:27:36.:27:38.

scenarios where the Article 50 declaration is delayed

:27:39.:27:41.

or never comes. It's important to remember a third

:27:42.:27:43.

moving part - the economy. The Treasury will get quite worried

:27:44.:27:46.

if there are long delays, because delays mean uncertainty,

:27:47.:27:49.

uncertainty about our future trading Uncertainty about our immigration

:27:50.:27:53.

policy and all of that will depress business activity and investment

:27:54.:27:59.

in the UK from abroad in particular. There are other moving

:28:00.:28:03.

parts, like devolution. The other legislatures

:28:04.:28:07.

cannot block Brexit, but problems in the peace process

:28:08.:28:10.

will need addressing. So will an appetite for

:28:11.:28:14.

Scottish independence. Article 50, the mandate and

:28:15.:28:18.

the economy will determine a lot. Well, earlier I spoke

:28:19.:28:26.

to Chris Grayling. I began by asking him

:28:27.:28:28.

whether all models of being outside think we have a number of priorities

:28:29.:28:47.

as we going to negotiation. Clearly, we want the best possible deal for

:28:48.:28:50.

the United Kingdom in terms of trade. I think that is common sense

:28:51.:28:55.

because we are the biggest customer of the European Union, 16% of

:28:56.:28:59.

exports, it is in their interest they keep access to our market.

:29:00.:29:04.

Clearly we got a mandate from the people last week to set limits on

:29:05.:29:08.

the amount of people that come to live and work in the United Kingdom.

:29:09.:29:11.

Above all, this was a close result so we have to be certain as we going

:29:12.:29:15.

to negotiation, we are mindful of the fact that people expect us to

:29:16.:29:19.

stay an outward facing, internationalist country and we want

:29:20.:29:22.

to be good friends and neighbours of the European Union, even though

:29:23.:29:25.

we're not going to be part of what they are doing. I tell you why I

:29:26.:29:30.

ask, Boris Johnson, his piece in the Telegraph, he talked about how

:29:31.:29:33.

British people will still be able to go and work in the EU, to live, to

:29:34.:29:38.

travel, to study, to buy homes and settle down. That sounded like he

:29:39.:29:43.

was potentially embracing a model that might allow free movement,

:29:44.:29:48.

isn't it? Isn't that what he's saying? The key point is the ability

:29:49.:29:51.

to control. We are not in the business of saying to people, you

:29:52.:29:55.

cannot move around the world, you cannot come to United Kingdom to

:29:56.:29:58.

work, you cannot come here if you have got a job. One of the things we

:29:59.:30:03.

shouldn't have a 77,000 people a year from within the European Union

:30:04.:30:06.

turning up in the United Kingdom just to look for a job. Even the

:30:07.:30:17.

Prime Minister in the past has said that shouldn't happen. That is one

:30:18.:30:20.

of the things we should be looking at as we go through this process. I

:30:21.:30:22.

think it is really important, given the fact it is a close result, given

:30:23.:30:26.

the fact that we all don't want to become Little Britain, we want to be

:30:27.:30:28.

doing new deals around the world, we don't want to be part of a European

:30:29.:30:31.

integrationist project, but we want to be good friends and neighbours.

:30:32.:30:37.

If MPs believe the Norway option, which means you out of the EU, you

:30:38.:30:41.

are in the single market, but you do have free movement of European

:30:42.:30:48.

citizens, is that illegitimate? I MPs not allowed to vote for that or

:30:49.:30:51.

ask the government to vote for that? Is it somehow out of bounds?

:30:52.:30:56.

Parliament is ultimately sovereign. The clear message from all sides of

:30:57.:31:00.

the Commons this afternoon, as we discuss the issues that arise from

:31:01.:31:05.

us visit's referendum result, is that we have clear instructions from

:31:06.:31:08.

the British people. They have given us a message that say we want to be

:31:09.:31:12.

outside the European Union, we don't want to be little Britain, but we do

:31:13.:31:16.

want the ability to set controls on the not people that come in. I'm

:31:17.:31:24.

just trying to work out, trying to work out a membership of the single

:31:25.:31:27.

market is still on the table all whether that is now being ruled out?

:31:28.:31:32.

As I say, membership of the single market is a phrase, what is the

:31:33.:31:35.

objective, what has the plan been, what will it be now? It is to do

:31:36.:31:40.

what is in the best interests of the United Kingdom. That is to ensure

:31:41.:31:43.

that our businesses can continue selling goods and services in the

:31:44.:31:47.

European Union and vice versa. Whatever you call it, that is the

:31:48.:31:56.

important thing. We have heard from the German CBI, they want us to

:31:57.:31:59.

carry on trading normally, it is in all of our interests that should

:32:00.:32:03.

happen. The other day, Daniel Hannon drew a distinction between free

:32:04.:32:09.

movement of people and labour. Is that something you would agree with?

:32:10.:32:13.

There were clear messages to Government about the approach they

:32:14.:32:18.

want us to take, they want us to leave the European Union, they want

:32:19.:32:21.

controls over immigration, they want to negotiate trade deals around the

:32:22.:32:25.

world. These are the messages we got from the referendum. The Government

:32:26.:32:29.

needs to sit down in a careful, methodical way, planning how we do

:32:30.:32:32.

that and how we get the best agreements with our partners for the

:32:33.:32:36.

future. Boris Johnson says we will still be able to work, travel and

:32:37.:32:39.

live in the rest of the EU, even though he doesn't say they will be

:32:40.:32:42.

allowed to do that here. Would it not have been better if we had

:32:43.:32:46.

actually had... If you like, we had nailed down a core vision of what

:32:47.:32:49.

the outlook would look like? When you take the travel issue, I would

:32:50.:32:55.

expect little to be able to travel normally, as they do now, take

:32:56.:33:00.

holidays like they do. He said to live, to work, travel, study, by

:33:01.:33:04.

homes and settle down? These are things you can do around the world,

:33:05.:33:08.

not just in the European Union. It is normal for people to be up to

:33:09.:33:11.

move around sensibly, if they can sort themselves out in terms of

:33:12.:33:14.

money, if they want to go where they want to go on holiday, it happens

:33:15.:33:19.

all over the world. Hilux going to be supporting Boris Johnson as

:33:20.:33:29.

leader? Yourself, maybe? I am not putting my hat into the ring, I am

:33:30.:33:33.

not making clear what I will do as part of a leadership campaign.

:33:34.:33:37.

If you earn your living in the City, it was another exhilarating day.

:33:38.:33:40.

Our business editor, Helen Thomas, is with me.

:33:41.:33:46.

It was another really ugly day in the markets. The pound dropped

:33:47.:33:52.

again, down to its lowest level since 1985. In the stock markets,

:33:53.:33:59.

the FTSE 100 is flaring up quite well. It is really the FTSE 250,

:34:00.:34:04.

where the damage has been done. It is more reflective of the UK

:34:05.:34:10.

economy. It is now down 15%. That is since the referendum. Late in the

:34:11.:34:14.

day, another blow, Standard Poor's, the credit rating agency,

:34:15.:34:19.

downgraded the UK, stripped us of the triple a rating. That badges the

:34:20.:34:26.

gold standard, we have had it since 1978. We clung onto it, all the way

:34:27.:34:30.

through the financial crisis and now it has gone. How significant is

:34:31.:34:35.

that? You can think of a credit rating of the indication of the

:34:36.:34:41.

likelihood of default. Lower rating means higher borrowing costs,

:34:42.:34:44.

sometimes. Nobody thinks the UK Government is going to default on

:34:45.:34:47.

its debts, borrowing costs have fallen in recent days. But you can

:34:48.:34:51.

also think about the credit rating as an indication of how attractive a

:34:52.:34:57.

place is to invest. In that contest, that context, it is pretty damning.

:34:58.:35:01.

It talks about reassessing the institutional framework of the UK,

:35:02.:35:08.

that a polite way of saying it is falling apart at the seams. It is

:35:09.:35:12.

pretty gloomy on the outlook confidence for growth. They think

:35:13.:35:15.

our membership of the European Union helped the standing of the pound,

:35:16.:35:19.

helped enhance London's position as a financial centre and helped

:35:20.:35:23.

attract investment. The risk is, in their view, it starts to unravel.

:35:24.:35:26.

If we in Britain are confused about exactly what we want

:35:27.:35:28.

in the Article 50 world, it's not impossible

:35:29.:35:30.

There are 27 other members who have to agree on a line.

:35:31.:35:36.

Our diplomatic editor, Mark Urban, has been on the continent

:35:37.:35:38.

since the referendum trying to find out where the debate

:35:39.:35:41.

It's Monday, so it must be Berlin, where the big beasts of the EU

:35:42.:35:46.

Since I started this, one thing has become very clear, there are a lot

:35:47.:35:59.

of people, institutions, countries, that have a lot of grudges against

:36:00.:36:04.

Britain due to all sorts of past battles, the Cameron package that

:36:05.:36:08.

was negotiated earlier this year, all sorts of reasons. They are

:36:09.:36:10.

delighted that Britain is leaving and they are effectively saying, can

:36:11.:36:15.

we help you with your bags? That includes Jean-Claude Juncker, the

:36:16.:36:18.

head of the European Parliament, and we have had statements from the

:36:19.:36:21.

leaders of France, Italy and Belgium, which I think you could

:36:22.:36:26.

also put in that category. What has been less evident, what I was

:36:27.:36:29.

expecting to see, was the emergence of a more understanding camp, some

:36:30.:36:33.

helpful remarks from the leader of Poland today, but apart from that we

:36:34.:36:38.

haven't really seen that emerge. Of course, not all EU members are

:36:39.:36:42.

created equal, whether it is one almighty powerful one at the centre

:36:43.:36:46.

of the alliance, now defining the policy of the 27, Germany. It is

:36:47.:36:51.

quite clear from interventions they have already made, they are going to

:36:52.:36:52.

be key players in this. The annual German-French

:36:53.:37:02.

People's Festival has been It started when Europe's

:37:03.:37:04.

old adversaries were becoming friends and a Franco-German engine,

:37:05.:37:11.

or partnership, powered the EU. But, these days, the French troops

:37:12.:37:18.

are long gone from Berlin and that alliance doesn't seem

:37:19.:37:21.

quite so equal, either. And Germans also are taking

:37:22.:37:25.

potshots at the EU. Arno owns this stall,

:37:26.:37:38.

and he is quite a Eurosceptic. He wants the Deutschmark back

:37:39.:37:41.

and urges his leader not to be too But in the rest of Germany,

:37:42.:37:44.

there are other ideas about how best Many of those around

:37:45.:38:22.

Chancellor Merkel reject leniency, arguing if Britain is leaving,

:38:23.:38:34.

it needs to say what it wants From outside to Britain,

:38:35.:38:37.

you see a Prime Minister who wants You see potential candidates

:38:38.:38:41.

for a succession of him. They also say they don't want to,

:38:42.:38:45.

they hesitate concerning that thing. The parliament is saying nothing

:38:46.:38:50.

on that, therefore we are At this architect's office

:38:51.:38:52.

in Berlin, they'd like a plan, too. It's a German outpost

:38:53.:39:05.

of a British firm and, already, they are worried about potential

:39:06.:39:07.

clients having their confidence undermined and the effect

:39:08.:39:10.

on their mixed German They won't make it easy for Britain

:39:11.:39:12.

to negotiate deals. I think the companies

:39:13.:39:17.

will somehow take a hit, like we will take

:39:18.:39:19.

the hit and carry on. It's just a shame, basically,

:39:20.:39:23.

to make it also difficult. I'm not talking about the business

:39:24.:39:28.

relationships here, talking about personal

:39:29.:39:33.

relationships as well. Especially if, like every

:39:34.:39:35.

company that has branches abroad, there is a lot

:39:36.:39:37.

of personal lives involved. As for Germany's continued exports

:39:38.:39:41.

to Britain, the prediction of economic experts here

:39:42.:39:48.

is of a slight drop, The real crux of coming negotiations

:39:49.:39:51.

will be political and nobody expects The UK is in a very bad

:39:52.:39:58.

bargaining position. The only thing it can do now is,

:39:59.:40:06.

we are going to postpone the process, and therefore impose

:40:07.:40:12.

so much pain on ourselves that you That is a very destructive process,

:40:13.:40:15.

and, ultimately, the UK will have to pay the price for keeping some

:40:16.:40:21.

relationship to the euro area So, I doubt it will get

:40:22.:40:24.

a very favourable deal. When it came to how and when those

:40:25.:40:35.

negotiations might start, it was to Berlin that the French

:40:36.:40:40.

and Italian leaders came today. President Hollande gave the distinct

:40:41.:40:44.

impression that Britain couldn't be TRANSLATION: Nothing

:40:45.:40:46.

is worse than uncertainty. Uncertainty gets in the way

:40:47.:40:55.

of political decisions. It also gets in the way

:40:56.:40:57.

of financial decisions. Matteo Renzi says anything less

:40:58.:41:04.

than a speedy Brexit would be Britain shouldn't be bounced out,

:41:05.:41:06.

and will choose its own TRANSLATION: We agree that Article

:41:07.:41:14.

50 of the European treaties The member state wanting to leave

:41:15.:41:20.

the European Union has to apply to the European Council and,

:41:21.:41:33.

before this application, So, they departed, having set

:41:34.:41:35.

the stage for tomorrow's The Merkel view, for the time being,

:41:36.:41:41.

is holding that Britain should be allowed time to change its mind

:41:42.:41:50.

before it invokes Article 50. But once that happens,

:41:51.:41:54.

the real challenge for the Germans will be whether the other allies

:41:55.:41:58.

agree to the sort of terms they would want to give Britain

:41:59.:42:01.

on the outside. Within the market is a harmonised

:42:02.:42:05.

market, with the four liberties, you can move your money as you want,

:42:06.:42:08.

you can move goods where you want, you can do services where you want

:42:09.:42:14.

and you have the free movement Taking some things out

:42:15.:42:17.

of the single market, only to keep Britain in the single

:42:18.:42:23.

market, I think this At the German-French festival

:42:24.:42:25.

on Berlin's outskirts... An entertainer belts out

:42:26.:42:39.

the hits from yesteryear. The old refrains about the benefits

:42:40.:42:48.

of EU membership were wearing But the latest polling suggests few

:42:49.:42:50.

Germans want to walks Instead, Chancellor Merkel has

:42:51.:42:55.

public support to get the UK's divorce over with as quickly

:42:56.:43:02.

and cleanly as possible, as Germany, increasingly,

:43:03.:43:04.

sets the tone for Back on Thursday night,

:43:05.:43:05.

results night, the first declaration came from Gibraltar

:43:06.:43:15.

and it was the Remain side's best Gibraltarians worry that Brexit

:43:16.:43:18.

might upset the delicate relationship they have with Spain,

:43:19.:43:24.

which lost the territory in 1704 and would rather

:43:25.:43:27.

like to have it back. Gabriel Gatehouse has been talking

:43:28.:43:30.

to the Chief Minister of Gibraltar, including on one idea,

:43:31.:43:33.

that parts of the EU might stay in the EU,

:43:34.:43:39.

while other parts leave. If there is one part

:43:40.:43:44.

of the UK that definitely, definitely doesn't want to leave

:43:45.:43:47.

the European Union, it is this. Less than ten miles from the coast

:43:48.:43:53.

of North Africa, Gibraltar voted There are 30,000 people living

:43:54.:43:55.

on the Rock, only 823 of them said Gibraltar is more pro-European

:43:56.:44:02.

than anywhere in Britain. Newsnight has learned that

:44:03.:44:13.

Gibraltar's government is working on a plan to stay in the union,

:44:14.:44:16.

and it's looking for allies. In his first broadcast interview

:44:17.:44:20.

since the referendum, the territory's Chief Minister told

:44:21.:44:22.

us he was talking to Scotland's Nicola Sturgeon

:44:23.:44:25.

about various options. Well, there are potential

:44:26.:44:30.

different formulas out there. This is like a kaleidoscope that has

:44:31.:44:33.

not yet settled. One of them may be the formula that

:44:34.:44:35.

Denmark used in the 1970s before the Lisbon Treaty and before Article

:44:36.:44:38.

50 was even invented, to simply strip out a part

:44:39.:44:42.

of the territory that doesn't want to stay part

:44:43.:44:44.

of the European Union. The member state is still defined

:44:45.:44:47.

as Denmark, but it no I can imagine a situation where some

:44:48.:44:50.

parts of what is today the member state United Kingdom are stripped

:44:51.:44:55.

out and others remain. That means that we don't have

:44:56.:44:59.

to apply again for access, we simply remain with the access

:45:00.:45:01.

that we have today and those parts that leave are then given

:45:02.:45:04.

a different sort of access, which is negotiated,

:45:05.:45:07.

but not necessarily under The governments of Gibraltar

:45:08.:45:10.

and Scotland may share a desire to stay in the EU,

:45:11.:45:14.

but on the subject The SNP wants independence,

:45:15.:45:17.

Gibraltarians almost without exception want

:45:18.:45:21.

to remain part of Britain. Immediately after the referendum,

:45:22.:45:24.

Spain raised the issue The Spanish flag on the Rock

:45:25.:45:27.

is closer than it was before, Now, that is absolute anathema

:45:28.:45:33.

to almost everyone here. London has reiterated its commitment

:45:34.:45:40.

to Gibraltar, but the Foreign Secretary said that the territory's

:45:41.:45:44.

interests will be harder to protect Anybody that thinks this is a time

:45:45.:45:47.

to propose joint sovereignty or they are going to get any

:45:48.:45:56.

millimetre of advantage in respect to the sovereignty of Gibraltar

:45:57.:45:59.

is completely wrong. 10,000 Spanish workers cross

:46:00.:46:02.

into Gibraltar every day. They and the Gibraltarians have

:46:03.:46:07.

been reassured nothing But the reality is that,

:46:08.:46:10.

at the moment, no-one really knows how Brexit will play

:46:11.:46:16.

itself out here. Earlier, I spoke to Kristalina

:46:17.:46:25.

Georgieva, the vice president of the European Commission,

:46:26.:46:27.

the executive body of the EU. I began by asking her

:46:28.:46:30.

whether she regretted the UK wasn't offered an emergency brake on free

:46:31.:46:33.

movement, In the discussions that have taken

:46:34.:46:36.

place, every effort has been made by the Commission to offer a deal

:46:37.:46:44.

that is fair for the United Kingdom and for the rest

:46:45.:46:49.

of the European Union. At that process, we thought we'd got

:46:50.:46:53.

to a point when the Prime Minister of UK had something good to offer

:46:54.:46:59.

to its people. But my impression is that

:47:00.:47:03.

during the debates around Brexit, this deal disappeared,

:47:04.:47:10.

nobody talked about it. The issues that have been discussed

:47:11.:47:13.

actually had nothing to do The 27 members, the Commission,

:47:14.:47:16.

you guys, do you think you will now look into your souls and say -

:47:17.:47:23.

we need to listen more? And we need to take account

:47:24.:47:26.

of the scepticism that is running not just in the UK but across

:47:27.:47:34.

other countries too? We are facing an existential

:47:35.:47:37.

challenge as a union. We ought to make it possible

:47:38.:47:40.

for those of us, that want to and have to integrate

:47:41.:47:45.

further to do it and for those who want to be losing

:47:46.:47:50.

union to also do it. This is not at all easy,

:47:51.:47:55.

but with or without Brexit, this Of course, we need to continue

:47:56.:47:58.

to look into the mirror and ask ourselves, what is it that we can

:47:59.:48:04.

do better for Europe How long do you think these

:48:05.:48:07.

negotiations, the divorce negotiation, how long

:48:08.:48:16.

is this going to take - In the end of these two years,

:48:17.:48:19.

one of two things will happen - either negotiations are completed

:48:20.:48:28.

and then there is a new relation or there may be a need

:48:29.:48:30.

for prolongation, but for that, there has to be unanimity among

:48:31.:48:38.

the heads of government of the European Union,

:48:39.:48:42.

the 27 and of course, the UK. We only can, at this point of time,

:48:43.:48:47.

wait for the clock to start ticking and then, roll our sleeves and work

:48:48.:48:56.

together for the best possible outcome we can get

:48:57.:49:04.

under the circumstances. No punishment, no trying to hurt

:49:05.:49:07.

the UK in order to teach We are witnessing such a turmoil

:49:08.:49:10.

at the moment that the least we can do is just to keep calm

:49:11.:49:17.

and try to resolve a very difficult problem for

:49:18.:49:21.

the benefit of all our people. The wish of all of us

:49:22.:49:27.

is that we bring a resolution that is as positive as it can be

:49:28.:49:30.

under very difficult circumstances. The Polish Foreign Minister,

:49:31.:49:40.

whose name I'm not going to try to pronounce, has blamed

:49:41.:49:43.

the commission for a lot going wrong and said,

:49:44.:49:46.

you know, this is a crisis He wants to downgrade

:49:47.:49:50.

the Commission. I think he's suggested that

:49:51.:49:56.

Jean-Claude Juncker should resign as a result of everything

:49:57.:49:58.

that has happened. Do you have some sympathy

:49:59.:50:02.

with his analysis? You know, my sympathy is with us

:50:03.:50:05.

all of us, we are facing a very The financial markets are telling us

:50:06.:50:08.

that they're very nervous around I think last we need is more turmoil

:50:09.:50:15.

and more finger pointing. It would be healthiest

:50:16.:50:24.

if we are to concentrate on the universe of problems we have

:50:25.:50:27.

to solve and work together Let's reflect on where we are his

:50:28.:50:31.

evening, at 11.20pm. I'm joined by Zoe Williams

:50:32.:50:41.

of the Guardian and Tom Newton-Dunn, Can Jeremy Corbyn survive? You say

:50:42.:50:56.

that like we rehearsed it (! ) It depends what you mean by "survive".

:50:57.:51:00.

I don't think he's going to go quietly. I don't think he will

:51:01.:51:04.

submit to the vote of no confidence. I don't think he will allow a new

:51:05.:51:09.

leadership election without his name on the ticket. But do I think he's

:51:10.:51:12.

going to end up victorious in the long run? No, I don't. Is this a

:51:13.:51:17.

fight to the death of the Labour Party, then, Tom, is that what the

:51:18.:51:21.

plan is, they're each going to go on wrestling into the mud? It's a rock

:51:22.:51:24.

and a very hard place coming together. It's incredibly hard to

:51:25.:51:28.

see how on earth anyone can win all this. There has to be a final death

:51:29.:51:34.

of one or the other. There are candidates who could be unity

:51:35.:51:43.

candidates? That is a classic suggestion, this person who never

:51:44.:51:46.

upsets anybody, she's a good candidate. You cannot have, you

:51:47.:51:50.

know, what the people who voted for Jeremy Corbyn want is a Pablo

:51:51.:51:58.

Iglesias, they want a left-wing, big ideas, new model person. I

:51:59.:52:00.

completely understand and support that. I don't think Jeremy Corbyn

:52:01.:52:04.

has been it. But I do not think what we're looking at is the rock and the

:52:05.:52:08.

hard place. We're not looking at Blairites versus the far left any

:52:09.:52:11.

more. We're looking at a huge number of people who the Corbyn camp would

:52:12.:52:16.

say don't even have skin in the game because they're not Blairites.

:52:17.:52:20.

They're not labourites either. They're from all over the place. Who

:52:21.:52:24.

is your candidate, who do you want? You have to have a Plan B before you

:52:25.:52:29.

reject Plan A. You know I hate committing but I would be delighted

:52:30.:52:36.

to see Lisa Nandy standing. I would be delighted for Starmer tarp to

:52:37.:52:40.

stand. Is there a -- Keir Starmer standing. Who else is there? Dan

:52:41.:52:52.

Jarvis, Chukka. I don't think you're talking about moderates. Who would

:52:53.:52:55.

you call that lot then? The whole conception of what moderation is has

:52:56.:52:59.

changed so much that people who previously would have been seen as

:53:00.:53:02.

on the right of the party or on the nothing of the party, Dan Jarvis is

:53:03.:53:06.

on the nothing of the party. On the subject of moderates, there has been

:53:07.:53:10.

chatter about hey, why don't the right of the Labour Party and the

:53:11.:53:17.

left of the Conservative Party they're all Remainors, why not get

:53:18.:53:20.

together and create a new force in the centre. It's a wonderful idea.

:53:21.:53:25.

We have this debate once every two years in politics. We had the purple

:53:26.:53:30.

party, blues and yellows come together. A grand coalition. Why

:53:31.:53:36.

does it not happen? Two reasons: One, the SDP, everybody remembers

:53:37.:53:39.

what happens to them. I actually don't. Older people like us do. Two,

:53:40.:53:46.

there is no base. Activists are generally on one side, the Tory

:53:47.:53:50.

activists are quite right-wing, Labour activists more left-wing.

:53:51.:53:55.

No-one's in the middle to go out, deliver your leverlets. You don't

:53:56.:54:00.

need to deliver leaflets now. You need a bit of that. Here's the

:54:01.:54:04.

thing, I don't think we're talking about the left of the Tories and the

:54:05.:54:07.

right of the Labour here. When you talk about people who wanted to

:54:08.:54:11.

Remain it's not a left-right issue. It's a huge question and many of us

:54:12.:54:16.

are devastated by the result. We're devastated not from a left-wing

:54:17.:54:19.

point of view from a sheer vandalism point of view. You could create an

:54:20.:54:23.

alliance of people who felt that this was an incredibly vandalistic

:54:24.:54:33.

act. So elect us and we stay in the EU. You get over the EU thing, at

:54:34.:54:38.

some point we get over the EU thing and then you have left, right,

:54:39.:54:42.

austerity versus spending. You're speaking as though this would be a

:54:43.:54:45.

disaster because it would be chaotic. Look what we're in now - we

:54:46.:54:50.

don't have a Prime Minister or a leader of the Opposition. Could

:54:51.:54:53.

Labour campaign and say, let's stay in? Is that plausible? I think it's

:54:54.:54:58.

extremely dangerous. Clearly it's plausible. You get on extremely well

:54:59.:55:04.

with Zoe and others, they risk doing a Scotland - And you lose them all.

:55:05.:55:10.

We have 40 seconds on the Conservative party. Can they be, can

:55:11.:55:14.

they heal this more easily than Labour's problems? The obvious route

:55:15.:55:20.

for them to heal it, I cannot see what, how they would make it work if

:55:21.:55:24.

they elect Theresa May because Boris is such a divisive and toxic figure

:55:25.:55:29.

- I don't see how they make it work. They have a spurt of energy. It will

:55:30.:55:33.

be bitter and bloody, they will because of power. They love power.

:55:34.:55:37.

Ministers want to be ministers and that's going to be enough to get

:55:38.:55:41.

them to shut up eventually. They're always in power, they're just only

:55:42.:55:44.

sometimes in office. That's philosophical. To be continued.

:55:45.:55:47.

That's all we have time for. I'm back in the chair tomorrow, until

:55:48.:56:00.

then, have a very good night. It's hard to believe we're entering

:56:01.:56:05.

into the final few days of June with no sign of any significant settled

:56:06.:56:09.

summer-like weather, in fact plenty of rain to come across the bulk of

:56:10.:56:13.

the country over the next few days, the heaviest is

:56:14.:56:14.

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