05/07/2016 Newsnight


05/07/2016

Who can stop Theresa May? Brexit hits the Universities. Chilcott Report. New Labour Party members speak up. With Evan Davis.


Similar Content

Browse content similar to 05/07/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

There were five candidates this morning - one is Theresa May,

:00:00.:00:08.

I'll be lending my whole hearted support to Theresa May,

:00:09.:00:20.

who is overwhelmingly in the best position to be the next

:00:21.:00:23.

Prime Minister and the leader of the Conservative Party.

:00:24.:00:25.

I've decided to give my support to Theresa May.

:00:26.:00:28.

I intend to work closely with her, to campaign for her,

:00:29.:00:32.

and I am sure she'll be a very fine Prime Minister of this country.

:00:33.:00:36.

There is still a battle of the Brexiteers for second place,

:00:37.:00:39.

and a chance to appeal to Tory party members.

:00:40.:00:43.

But is it futile, given Theresa May's lead?

:00:44.:00:48.

Since the referendum result, of the 12 projects that we have

:00:49.:00:58.

people working on, for submission for an end of August deadlines,

:00:59.:01:00.

on four of those projects researchers in other European

:01:01.:01:06.

countries have said they no longer feel the E-UK should be a partner,

:01:07.:01:09.

because they don't have confidence in what the future is going to hold.

:01:10.:01:12.

In a Baghdad suburb they've counted 175 dead from an ISIS car bomb.

:01:13.:01:16.

In Westminster, they're about to publish the Chilcot report.

:01:17.:01:22.

Will this report bring security back?

:01:23.:01:24.

Or bring back someone who died from a car bomb?

:01:25.:01:27.

Or a widow who lost her husband, or lost her kids?

:01:28.:01:30.

Hello, it's too early to tell you who our new Prime Minister is,

:01:31.:01:46.

but we did learn today that it is not going to be Liam Fox.

:01:47.:01:50.

He was eliminated in the first round of the leadership election.

:01:51.:01:53.

Stephen Crabb then withdrew, so it won't be him.

:01:54.:01:55.

But both of them gave their backing to Theresa May,

:01:56.:01:57.

who was already the runaway leader, with half of Tory MPs backing her.

:01:58.:02:00.

But at this stage, the race for second place is still open.

:02:01.:02:03.

The battle of the Brexiteers, to be Theresa May's rival,

:02:04.:02:06.

is between Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove.

:02:07.:02:08.

It's more exciting than Wimbledon, and there's now one

:02:09.:02:10.

round on Thursday, before it goes to an audience vote.

:02:11.:02:12.

Our political editor Nick Watt is with me.

:02:13.:02:21.

Talks takes through the drama? As you were saying a decisive win for

:02:22.:02:32.

Theresa May there, there are 16 a 5 votes for -- 165 votes for her, but

:02:33.:02:38.

led not a member of the Cabinet, the Brexiteer 66 higher than expected,

:02:39.:02:41.

that is a serious performance, but let us not forget Michael Gove, he

:02:42.:02:46.

got 48 vote, and that was higher than expected. The work and pension

:02:47.:02:52.

secretary Stephen Crabb did OK, 34 votes and in final fifth place there

:02:53.:02:56.

is Liam Fox on 16 votes and he came last, so sorry Liam, you are out of

:02:57.:02:59.

the contest. But shortly after he was formally

:03:00.:03:02.

eliminated Stephen Crabb as you said he was still in the contest, he

:03:03.:03:06.

decided to go and he endorsed Theresa May, but the really

:03:07.:03:10.

significant endorsement for Theresa May was Liam Fox, a prominent

:03:11.:03:14.

Brexiteer and he said he would travel the country with her, which

:03:15.:03:18.

will help her because she could be up against one of those two

:03:19.:03:22.

Brexiteers. You look at the figures and the endorsement of MP, and I

:03:23.:03:26.

know they don't choos choose, it has to be Theresa May? On paper Theresa

:03:27.:03:31.

May is untouchable but she is nervous about Andrea Leadsom. I

:03:32.:03:35.

talked to one of her supporters and this person said to me, look Andrea

:03:36.:03:40.

Leadsom is fresh, she was in the television debate, she maybe popular

:03:41.:03:44.

with the membership and this cabinet minister said maybe Theresa May will

:03:45.:03:47.

do so well on Thursday, that perhaps the others will stand down, but that

:03:48.:03:51.

is not the official Theresa May position, the official Theresa May

:03:52.:03:54.

position is I want this contest to go the full course, I want to face

:03:55.:03:57.

the country because I want a proper mandate. What is going to happen

:03:58.:04:01.

now? What happens on Thursday? What will happen is Theresa May will

:04:02.:04:06.

shore up her sup for, but there is Machiavellian thinking, perhaps

:04:07.:04:10.

because she is so far ahead she could lend 30 votes to Michael Gove.

:04:11.:04:15.

That would knock Andrea Leadsom out and Theresa May would be maybe not

:04:16.:04:17.

certain about beating Andrea Leadsom, but would be very certain

:04:18.:04:20.

about beating Michael Gove, but Theresa May, I am not in favour of

:04:21.:04:25.

tactical voting, so that is not the official position. Let us not forget

:04:26.:04:31.

Michael Gove, he thinks is a serious contender and he thinks Andrea

:04:32.:04:36.

Leadsom has two weakness, one is she didn't have a great performance in

:04:37.:04:41.

font of the 1922 Committee. And her stellar CV. Thank you.

:04:42.:04:42.

Earlier in the day, there was a flurry of excitement,

:04:43.:04:46.

thanks to a candid assessment of the leading candidates

:04:47.:04:48.

from Ken Clarke, caught on a Sky microphone.

:04:49.:04:50.

Many were wondering if it was right to air the comments,

:04:51.:04:52.

as he was apparently unaware he was being recorded, but, well,

:04:53.:04:55.

it just turned out to be too good for broadcasters not to run.

:04:56.:04:59.

I think with Michael as Prime Minister, we would go

:05:00.:05:01.

to war with at least three countries at once.

:05:02.:05:03.

He did us all a favour by getting rid of Boris.

:05:04.:05:06.

The idea of Boris as Prime Minister is ridiculous.

:05:07.:05:09.

I don't think either Andrea Leadsom or Boris Johnson are actually

:05:10.:05:14.

in favour of leaving the European Union.

:05:15.:05:16.

Theresa May is a bloody difficult woman, but you and I worked

:05:17.:05:19.

Well, joining me now are David Davis, the former

:05:20.:05:27.

Shadow Home Secretary, who is supporting Theresa May,

:05:28.:05:29.

and Tim Loughton, who is running Andrea Leadsom's campaign.

:05:30.:05:36.

Ront of the 1922 Committee. And her stellar CV. Thank you. We will take

:05:37.:05:46.

the microphones off later. Let us start on the issue of whether

:05:47.:05:52.

Theresa May is unassailable. Could you imagine a Coronation in which

:05:53.:05:55.

she is just Theresa May is too far ahead in MP votes? Absolutely not.

:05:56.:06:00.

The MPs role is an advisory role. It is up to the membership to decide

:06:01.:06:06.

the final candidate, who becomes leader, who then becomes Prime

:06:07.:06:10.

Minister. The membership will feel cheated if we deny the choice and

:06:11.:06:17.

deny them the choice of a Brexiteer and remainor, David Davis isn't

:06:18.:06:23.

there a problem, if 200 MPs support Theresa May, and the next candidate

:06:24.:06:30.

gets you know, vastly less, 70, I mean what happens? Tim is right.

:06:31.:06:35.

They are having a candidate foisted on them. I can't think of a

:06:36.:06:40.

parallel. Our rules are that the MPs put up the two candidates and the

:06:41.:06:44.

party chooses, now the party may take into account what the MPs do,

:06:45.:06:49.

but it is down to the party at the end of the day. If they choose to

:06:50.:06:53.

elect somebody other than Teresa, that is their choice. David know, he

:06:54.:06:57.

has been through it. I remember that process. You would be happy and you

:06:58.:07:02.

would serve under Andrea Leadsom, if even if she was way behind Theresa

:07:03.:07:08.

May in MP terms. The outcome is the outcome. We have Parliamentary

:07:09.:07:14.

sovereignty. On this subject, picking of the party leader and in

:07:15.:07:18.

this case the PM, it is down to the party members of the country. Are

:07:19.:07:23.

you nervous about tactical voting on Thursday, Tim, I know a lot of and

:07:24.:07:27.

dra's supporters seem to worry there may be some of that. This is my

:07:28.:07:33.

fourth leadership competition I have been in, I have been in Parliament

:07:34.:07:36.

for 19 year, in the past there have been a few hints some of her

:07:37.:07:39.

colleagues have not backbench up front about who they are supporting.

:07:40.:07:45.

Straight forward electorate? Wonderful colleagues may actually

:07:46.:07:48.

not do something they have said they would do, and there is a lot of

:07:49.:07:56.

shenanigans going on, I think the membership would feel cheated if

:07:57.:08:00.

they didn't have Teresa and Andrea. There is a certain niceness and

:08:01.:08:04.

neatness about having an all women the short list that is genuine,

:08:05.:08:09.

hasn't been gerrymandered by two strong women candidate, one from

:08:10.:08:13.

Leave, one from Remain, two who both went to state school. This is

:08:14.:08:17.

something new for the Tory party, it would be a good process, in what

:08:18.:08:21.

changes are coming about as well. Are you suggesting if Michael Gove

:08:22.:08:26.

pips Andrea Leadsom to the second place post on Thursday, are you

:08:27.:08:29.

suggesting that would probably be a result of tactical voting rather

:08:30.:08:33.

than MPs making a straight forward choice? Well we think that Michael

:08:34.:08:38.

got more votes than we expected him to today. We predicted for Andrea 65

:08:39.:08:44.

votes she got 66, so we have had to shoot her Chief Whip. Those are

:08:45.:08:51.

genuine people, who, who back Andrea, because they believe in

:08:52.:08:54.

Andrea, the fresh approach she has got, the experience she has got

:08:55.:08:57.

outside of Parliament. So we are going to increase the votes by

:08:58.:09:02.

people who are coming from Liam and from Stephen Crabb, but also from

:09:03.:09:06.

people who backed Teresa, because they gave Teresa their backing

:09:07.:09:09.

before Andrea came into the campaign, she wasn't in the campaign

:09:10.:09:13.

five days ago, to go from zero to 66, which is is double the

:09:14.:09:17.

predictions this horning is no mean feat. I repeat the question, if

:09:18.:09:22.

Michael Gove beats Andrea Leadsom on Thursday, would you be saying that

:09:23.:09:26.

is almost certainly the result of some kind of tactical voting, rather

:09:27.:09:31.

than honest voting? I I think there would be a steward's inquiry about

:09:32.:09:35.

where the extra votes came from but democracy is democracy. Is is there

:09:36.:09:41.

going to be tactical voting Of course there can be, this is a

:09:42.:09:47.

sophisticated electorate. There is no guidance from us, think of it in

:09:48.:09:52.

these term, let us imagine there are 35 votes in play, so, Teresa could

:09:53.:09:57.

go to 200 vote, right, or she could give the 35 votes to somebody else,

:09:58.:10:00.

in order to switch round, why would we do that? Firstly... Because it is

:10:01.:10:05.

easier to beat Michael Gove as you know. I don't agree with that. But

:10:06.:10:10.

not having, having 200 vote, which is the other alternative is a better

:10:11.:10:14.

outcome, Teresa is the unity candidate. She has pulled together

:10:15.:10:20.

Liam Fox and Stephen Crabb, me, not people you would necessarily expect,

:10:21.:10:24.

and the purpose is to unify the Tory party, the country, she wants the

:10:25.:10:28.

biggest vote. She is not going to give votes to anybody else. It is

:10:29.:10:32.

bonkers. Out of interest, one of the things that everyone has said about

:10:33.:10:35.

reading the view of the electorate in the referendum, is there was an

:10:36.:10:40.

anti-establishment vote, people were looking for someone who was

:10:41.:10:44.

different. I wonder whether either of you has a a candidate who has

:10:45.:10:49.

that. Andrea Leadsom, a city work e I think she went to Warwick, member

:10:50.:10:55.

of a black tie dining club. I was talking to her about this, we never

:10:56.:11:02.

remember that, we dined at hotels in Leamington Spa, the only time I died

:11:03.:11:10.

and my grandmother came in. I was at Warwick University, so we all have

:11:11.:11:15.

that in common. I was I was not part of any dining club, Dan was not. We

:11:16.:11:22.

a really mystified. Warwick is perhaps not the most blue chip. Is

:11:23.:11:31.

it fair to say that... So what She was an investment banker, she worked

:11:32.:11:35.

in fund management, in financial industry, in the city, in which she

:11:36.:11:38.

was widely respected and which she run teams of 3 hundred, she was

:11:39.:11:45.

involved in financial crisis in 2008, working alongside Eddie

:11:46.:11:48.

George, she has run businesses in the real world for 25 years before

:11:49.:11:52.

she came into Parliament, and starting to get into politic. The

:11:53.:11:57.

notion the only experience you could get inside politics, she has more

:11:58.:12:02.

outside politics than any of the candidates. She has been an MP for

:12:03.:12:07.

six year, day David Cameron was only a member for four years she is a

:12:08.:12:12.

highly respected minister. Your candidate has been in office for so

:12:13.:12:15.

many years and associated with failures that were associated with

:12:16.:12:19.

the defeat of the campaign that the referendum campaign on whose side

:12:20.:12:23.

she was. As you said in office she was in the most difficult job in

:12:24.:12:28.

Government, the one that kills people, in being Home Secretary,

:12:29.:12:33.

when I was Shadow Home Secretary for five years I had four Home

:12:34.:12:35.

Secretaries opposite me, she did the job for six years, it is a record in

:12:36.:12:42.

modern times and she was formidable. Things like the negotiation with

:12:43.:12:47.

Jordan over, series of things, incredibly important, that is why

:12:48.:12:51.

she got so many votes today, because they see a track record, a tough

:12:52.:12:57.

lady who knows what he is doing, decisive, competent capable. We have

:12:58.:13:02.

your thoughts on the credentials of your candidates. Let us talk about

:13:03.:13:06.

Brexit. Do you think Brexiteers can trust Theresa May?

:13:07.:13:11.

I just think if we are to have a Prime Minister who we need to

:13:12.:13:18.

negotiate, the most important settlement that we have ever faced

:13:19.:13:22.

in parliament, you need to have someone who is committed to the

:13:23.:13:26.

cause well researched and that caused and showed passion for it

:13:27.:13:31.

during the referendum, stuck up your neck on the block as a minister for

:13:32.:13:35.

the cause and knows how to negotiate. All those boxes are to

:13:36.:13:40.

buy Andrea Leadsom. The issue is not whether you voted for Brexit or

:13:41.:13:45.

whether you can deliver it. It is going to be one of the most

:13:46.:13:48.

sophisticated negotiations we have ever seen, not just us but the

:13:49.:13:52.

generation before us. It will require a competent and capable

:13:53.:13:56.

person, someone who can look Angela Merkel in the eye, who carries that

:13:57.:14:00.

gravitas but also has the intellect to do it. Today, not to pick fights,

:14:01.:14:08.

but up until today or yesterday, Andrea Leadsom, have you lost to go

:14:09.:14:13.

straight to Article 50 and trigger the negotiation. She is a tough nut

:14:14.:14:22.

she has done negotiation, she has dealt with foreign business people,

:14:23.:14:27.

dealt with foreign politicians in her role as Energy Minister and city

:14:28.:14:34.

minister. She is a no-nonsense, fresh start in politics and that is

:14:35.:14:38.

what we need. I'm afraid this is much bigger than that. Heads of

:14:39.:14:45.

state, there are really big arguments to take case and you will

:14:46.:14:49.

have to carry it off not just through the experience of one to

:14:50.:14:54.

energy negotiations, but a huge experience and that is what Theresa

:14:55.:15:00.

has got. She has a track record in the Home Office and when it comes to

:15:01.:15:03.

delivering the best deal for British people coming out of Europe, Theresa

:15:04.:15:14.

May, but Andrea will! Thank you both very much.

:15:15.:15:16.

Before the referendum, British universities were clear

:15:17.:15:17.

that they wanted Britain to remain in the EU.

:15:18.:15:20.

Now, of course, they are having to assess how Brexit will affect them.

:15:21.:15:23.

The Russell Group of top ranked research universities issued

:15:24.:15:25.

"We are just as open and welcoming to students,

:15:26.:15:28.

staff and ideas as we were before the referendum", they said,

:15:29.:15:31.

putting a brave face on it, but there are deep

:15:32.:15:33.

Our policy editor, Chris Cook, went to the university city

:15:34.:15:37.

of Sheffield, to find out what's on higher education minds.

:15:38.:15:47.

One vice Chancellor revealed his university is already feeling shock

:15:48.:15:50.

waves from the referendum. Sheffield was a major shock on

:15:51.:15:58.

referendum night. A big prosperous northern city but which voted to

:15:59.:16:00.

leave. And the two universities

:16:01.:16:01.

in Sheffield, like others elsewhere, are now deeply concerned

:16:02.:16:04.

about what comes next. British universities get around 5%

:16:05.:16:06.

of their students from the EU, around 15% of their staff,

:16:07.:16:15.

and around ?800 million It is possible all of those

:16:16.:16:17.

relationships and flows will continue in the future, but right

:16:18.:16:21.

now, uncertainty is causing real problems for our higher

:16:22.:16:23.

education institutions. One Vice Chancellor has broken

:16:24.:16:28.

cover, exclusively for Newsnight, to reveal

:16:29.:16:33.

a major problem. In order to secure research funds,

:16:34.:16:36.

our researchers need to bid You bid competitively

:16:37.:16:38.

and increasingly in an international environment, you bid

:16:39.:16:42.

in international teams. Since the referendum result,

:16:43.:16:49.

of the 12 projects that we have people working

:16:50.:16:51.

on for submission for an end of August deadline, on four of those

:16:52.:16:55.

projects researchers in other European

:16:56.:16:58.

countries have said they no longer feel that the UK should be a partner

:16:59.:17:01.

because they don't have confidence Three other vice

:17:02.:17:04.

chancellors have given us similar accounts,

:17:05.:17:10.

as academics here and abroad fear that

:17:11.:17:13.

post Brexit Britain might be excluded from the EU run

:17:14.:17:15.

research frameworks. One of them is the international

:17:16.:17:18.

engagement that our leading researchers have, the other

:17:19.:17:26.

one is mobility for younger So for our established researchers,

:17:27.:17:28.

because they are part of international

:17:29.:17:32.

networks at the moment, being published, but they know what

:17:33.:17:33.

is going on on the lab bench with And they know why decisions are

:17:34.:17:38.

being made about which particular For the younger researchers,

:17:39.:17:41.

the key thing is the opportunity to work

:17:42.:17:45.

in So as well as their experience

:17:46.:17:46.

of working in another country, they build up new contacts with those

:17:47.:17:52.

networks and those then support And we're going to

:17:53.:17:55.

miss out on both of Norway and Switzerland

:17:56.:17:58.

are out of the EU, but But the uncertainty

:17:59.:18:05.

is painful, and university We get quite a lot of research

:18:06.:18:10.

funding from the EU across a whole And we collaborate with

:18:11.:18:17.

all the EU countries. But one example of this

:18:18.:18:21.

is our Insignia research institute which is looking

:18:22.:18:23.

at how to develop cures for motor And other neuro

:18:24.:18:26.

degenerative disorders. So I think we wouldn't be able to do

:18:27.:18:32.

that research at that level without Now you might be

:18:33.:18:36.

expecting that, but what Stuff that both of Sheffield's

:18:37.:18:39.

universities called EU funded research also supports local

:18:40.:18:47.

high-tech manufacturing jobs. We work with British

:18:48.:18:51.

companies and companies in South Yorkshire

:18:52.:18:59.

as part of the supply chain to big

:19:00.:19:02.

companies like Rolls-Royce, Airbus We train 250 apprentices a year,

:19:03.:19:04.

with 195 small companies in This sort of work relies

:19:05.:19:09.

on attracting great researchers who can help local businesses

:19:10.:19:17.

develop their But vice chancellors already have

:19:18.:19:18.

case studies of prospective staff deciding not

:19:19.:19:23.

to come to Britain. And they fear losing students. I am

:19:24.:19:34.

really comfortable here but since the last vote, all the people from

:19:35.:19:38.

Spain do not know how it is working here, they're worried about that,

:19:39.:19:43.

quite worried about their situation. They do not know what will happen

:19:44.:19:50.

here to me. They do not know if people will still be nice or do not

:19:51.:19:57.

want us here. The UK may stay half in the U science infrastructure and

:19:58.:20:04.

take another pad, some Leave campaign is hoped up UK science

:20:05.:20:08.

bent, but academics need to know. For them it is a particularly

:20:09.:20:11.

chilling interregnum. As if we didn't have enough

:20:12.:20:13.

news to worry about, brace yourselves for tomorrow,

:20:14.:20:15.

when the Chilcot inquiry Another chance for establishment

:20:16.:20:17.

politician to take a kicking. The report has been seven

:20:18.:20:21.

years in the making - It's not designed to point

:20:22.:20:23.

the finger of blame at the mistakes made, it is designed

:20:24.:20:29.

to document the lessons But, of course, some of the lessons

:20:30.:20:31.

we may learn are that certain Sir John has been managing

:20:32.:20:36.

expectations of the report, The main expectation that I have,

:20:37.:20:40.

is that it will no be possible in future to engage in a military,

:20:41.:20:49.

or indeed a diplomatic endeavour on such a scale and of such gravity

:20:50.:20:57.

without really careful challenge, analysis and assessment,

:20:58.:21:02.

and collective political judgment Now, our diplomatic editor

:21:03.:21:05.

Mark Urban will be locked in a room with a number of other journalists

:21:06.:21:13.

to read the report at 8.00am Sir John Chilcot will talk

:21:14.:21:16.

about his findings at 11, and after that, the journalists can

:21:17.:21:22.

report on anything that their speed Let's start with Tony Blair. Where a

:21:23.:21:36.

lot of interest is in this and how the report will handle him and it. I

:21:37.:21:41.

think there will be a good deal of criticism of Tony Blair and the way

:21:42.:21:45.

he ran this but if after the smoking gun, key memo proving he knew that

:21:46.:21:51.

intelligence was false and lied to the people and Parliament, I do not

:21:52.:21:54.

think that is going to be there. I think there will be criticism of the

:21:55.:21:59.

style of government where Cabinet was not fully in the picture, a

:22:00.:22:04.

certain naivete going into it, absence of attention to detail and

:22:05.:22:07.

post-war planning. We may learn other things about Tony Blair as

:22:08.:22:10.

well, perhaps that he also realised it was going horribly wrong rather

:22:11.:22:16.

quicker than President Bush did. What about criticisms generally, how

:22:17.:22:19.

broad will they go, don't Tony Blair? I think it is key to

:22:20.:22:24.

understand that dozens of people will be centred explicitly or

:22:25.:22:29.

implicitly hi-vis. Officials, intelligence people who may not have

:22:30.:22:34.

given the right rigour, who may have allowed their work to be processed

:22:35.:22:38.

in a way that was too political. And not sufficiently caveat it. I think

:22:39.:22:43.

the military will be a substantial area of criticism. I think the

:22:44.:22:47.

report will point out that they lobbied for a big role in Iraq and

:22:48.:22:53.

then when Afghanistan was splitting up in 2005, they lobbied for a big

:22:54.:22:57.

role there before the business was finished in Iraq. All of that

:22:58.:23:02.

influence the level of resources and equipment that the military were

:23:03.:23:05.

able to have. So I expect to see a good deal of criticism of the way

:23:06.:23:09.

the campaign was conducted and the role of senior officers as well as

:23:10.:23:10.

other officials. By the way, Mark will

:23:11.:23:13.

share his observations on the inquiry with you tomorrow,

:23:14.:23:19.

as soon as Sir John stops talking. That'll be about 11.30 tomorrow

:23:20.:23:25.

morning, via Facebook Live. Go to the BBC's Facebook page,

:23:26.:23:29.

and you'll see it there, and you can Well, tomorrow's report

:23:30.:23:33.

will encapsulate in prose the mistakes made at the various

:23:34.:23:36.

stages of the war, and the suffering of both the Iraqi people

:23:37.:23:39.

and the British serviceman I am Reg Keys, I am

:23:40.:23:41.

the father of the late Lance Corporal Tom Keys who was killed

:23:42.:23:59.

in Iraq four days short of his 21st In the run up to the 2003 war,

:24:00.:24:02.

we were hearing all these information about the different

:24:03.:24:13.

types of bombs that are going to be launched on us, the different types

:24:14.:24:16.

of technology that is going to cause damage to our country,

:24:17.:24:21.

it was just so scary. believed my Prime Minister,

:24:22.:24:23.

Tony Blair, that Iraq had these dreadful weapons of mass destruction

:24:24.:24:27.

that were about to be unleashed

:24:28.:24:30.

on the British people at any time, indeed he could deploy

:24:31.:24:34.

in 45 minutes. At the start, when Americans came

:24:35.:24:38.

in, But then that's totally

:24:39.:24:40.

changed straightaway, when they saw things

:24:41.:24:46.

were getting worse. They are not getting better,

:24:47.:24:50.

we have American flags hanging on palaces, I had once

:24:51.:24:55.

a Laser gun on my chest because I was standing

:24:56.:25:02.

my balcony, someone in my house holding a gun towards me,

:25:03.:25:05.

saying this is freedom, this is democracy.

:25:06.:25:07.

Conditions were dire, I

:25:08.:25:08.

remember him saying we did a biological

:25:09.:25:09.

weapon attack drill, he

:25:10.:25:11.

said I put the rubber suit on, this is in

:25:12.:25:13.

stifling heat, these lads were

:25:14.:25:15.

training, feared for their lives, remember they may well be attacked

:25:16.:25:19.

when they were in no danger whatsoever from WMD, but as he put

:25:20.:25:23.

the face mask on, I recall him saying the rubber round the seal

:25:24.:25:26.

During the invasion we didn't go to school.

:25:27.:25:29.

I don't know why they waited till the end of

:25:30.:25:39.

They bombed electricity, they bombed telephone

:25:40.:25:48.

lines, OK, if you won the war, why are you bombing it and letting

:25:49.:25:51.

Tom and some of his colleagues were asked to give

:25:52.:25:54.

out sweets to children to win them over, and there was one dreadful

:25:55.:25:57.

incident, where two young lads, probably 12 or 13, Tom said, had

:25:58.:26:01.

taken sweets off them, and they were grabbed

:26:02.:26:03.

by a mob, taken off, tied to

:26:04.:26:05.

a lamp post and burned alive, as a lesson not

:26:06.:26:07.

to collaborate with the

:26:08.:26:09.

There was no law, there was no order, there

:26:10.:26:17.

The risk of death and serious injury goes along with being a serving

:26:18.:26:32.

soldier, I signed the paperwork for Tom to join the army because he was

:26:33.:26:36.

under 18 and I now have to come to terms with this. I was dealing with

:26:37.:26:40.

that until I started to find out that the weapons of mass destruction

:26:41.:26:45.

did not exist, that the war was based on a falsehood and

:26:46.:26:48.

misrepresentation of intelligence data. And then to my horror, I found

:26:49.:26:55.

that Tom had virtually no equipment, just 50 rounds of ammunition, no

:26:56.:27:02.

radio. No distress flares, no smoke grenade, no hand grenades. For a

:27:03.:27:08.

normal citizen living in Iraq at the moment, the Chilcot report will do

:27:09.:27:14.

nothing, will this report wingback security, will it bring electricity

:27:15.:27:20.

back will it make people feel safe? We want to know exactly why this

:27:21.:27:26.

country went to war with Iraq on the premise of a falsehood of WMD

:27:27.:27:33.

without a second UN resolution. The blood of those who died in Iraq

:27:34.:27:38.

stains the halls of Westminster, it was a shambolic episode in British

:27:39.:27:42.

politics, a disgrace and should never be allowed to happen again.

:27:43.:27:49.

And we will devote the programme tomorrow to the Chilcot report.

:27:50.:27:52.

The Labour Party is in the grip of a fierce

:27:53.:27:55.

Constitutionally, the party belongs to the members,

:27:56.:27:57.

but the MPs feel they have special rights to it as well.

:27:58.:28:00.

And the two are in a standoff over who should be leader.

:28:01.:28:03.

But, while I say that, it has not come to a vote -

:28:04.:28:06.

we just assume that the members would reaffirm their support of

:28:07.:28:09.

Especially, given a surge in new members post-referendum?

:28:10.:28:14.

Well, soon they may be given the chance to vote on a leader,

:28:15.:28:17.

so Lewis Goodall has been travelling the country to sound

:28:18.:28:19.

Meetings of local constituency Labour parties in every corner of

:28:20.:28:42.

the kingdom. There will be strong opinions.

:28:43.:28:46.

Before the meeting starts have a chance to catch up with sop some of

:28:47.:28:50.

the members to see if their support for the leader has soured. Soured.

:28:51.:28:55.

It was for the people round Corbyn, from the beginning there were so

:28:56.:28:59.

many media leaks and bits of things about him not being suitable, but in

:29:00.:29:06.

fact how can you say he is not? His vision is excellent and so many

:29:07.:29:10.

followed hipment Because a small my orty of the party which is a

:29:11.:29:14.

majority of the faction of the party are against him, does not mean he

:29:15.:29:17.

should go. Aren't they more than just a faction? No, that are a

:29:18.:29:21.

faction of the party. They are a fact hundred of the party. And if

:29:22.:29:26.

you want to listen to the party and you want members to be involved and

:29:27.:29:30.

you give them the right to join the party or just pay ?3 to have say you

:29:31.:29:34.

cannot take that away from him because you don't like the decision.

:29:35.:29:39.

If the Labour MPs feel the Labour Party is unrepresentative o their

:29:40.:29:42.

views or the views of their constituents they are within their

:29:43.:29:47.

rights to refuse the Labour whip. Even for Corbyn's detractors it is

:29:48.:29:50.

hard to oppose without an alternative. Why have we got to

:29:51.:29:55.

second guess the Parliamentary Labour Party. There are no

:29:56.:30:00.

candidates. There are no credible candidates coming forward. It does.

:30:01.:30:07.

There is all this movement against the leader, but nobody is standing

:30:08.:30:13.

up and saying I can do a better job. The PLP are acting in a sense of

:30:14.:30:16.

frustration, they are keen to bring about change and change to help

:30:17.:30:21.

ordinary people. Is that why they abstain on the Welfare Bill and why

:30:22.:30:25.

the previous Shadow Chancellor said he would accept some cuts to tax

:30:26.:30:30.

credits? The person who has been most outed is Angela Eagle. Do you

:30:31.:30:35.

have enthusiasm for that? Not at all. I don't think the Labour Party

:30:36.:30:40.

should return to new Labour but our style We shouldn't have a split in

:30:41.:30:45.

the party, which led to the SDP. We haven't got an alternative candidate

:30:46.:30:49.

out yet. Owen Smith's name is being touted. Let us wait and sigh. Would

:30:50.:30:56.

there be more support for him? Him? There is not a vacancy. We have a

:30:57.:31:01.

leader, and the leader has said he is staying put. The Labour Party

:31:02.:31:06.

isn't about one man, and we need, in order to be able do that job

:31:07.:31:10.

effectively, then Jeremy Corbyn needs the support of his MPs, and it

:31:11.:31:15.

seems he doesn't have that. In the event of another leadership election

:31:16.:31:19.

how many of you think Jeremy Corbyn would likely win? And in the event

:31:20.:31:26.

of another leadership election how many of you think you would likely

:31:27.:31:32.

vote for him yourself? Many of their comrades agree. During the meeting

:31:33.:31:37.

three motions were put down in support of Jeremy Corbyn, all three

:31:38.:31:41.

were overwhelmingly carried. All of the motions here were in

:31:42.:31:46.

favour of the leader, but, maybe the people who will determine the next

:31:47.:31:49.

leader of the Labour Party, aren't the people here at all but the

:31:50.:31:53.

people joining the party, to vote against Jeremy Corbyn.

:31:54.:31:58.

The rebels have to hope there are lots of people out there liker can

:31:59.:32:02.

and her daughter aimy from Cleethorpe, they are two of the

:32:03.:32:06.

60,000 people who have joined the party since the referendum. They

:32:07.:32:09.

have never been a member of a party before, but are joining now to vote

:32:10.:32:14.

for anyone but Corbyn. I have always voted, I think it is very important

:32:15.:32:21.

to vote, but I feel that the party I normally vote for isn't there any

:32:22.:32:25.

more, and I feel the next election, I wouldn't know who to vote for.

:32:26.:32:31.

Just feels like momentum have the car keys and they have gone for a

:32:32.:32:35.

joyride and they are not letting us have it back, and they would rather

:32:36.:32:40.

driver it off a cliff than give up power, because this is their moment.

:32:41.:32:44.

I read that so many people are joining and momentum say it is to

:32:45.:32:49.

join to vote for Corbyn, and I know I vote, join to vote against Corbyn,

:32:50.:32:53.

and I think he will hang on and I think it will be the end of the

:32:54.:32:57.

party. I think it could split the party, because people like me, that

:32:58.:33:01.

traditionally always vote Labour won't vote for Jeremy Corbyn in the

:33:02.:33:04.

next election. Will you vote for him in the next election? No. Who would

:33:05.:33:09.

you vote for instead? That is a tough one. I don't think, I don't

:33:10.:33:14.

think I could vote Tory, I think it would have to be the Lib Dem,

:33:15.:33:17.

because I use my vote, I think it is important to vote, and I feel I

:33:18.:33:21.

don't have anyone to vote for. You have voted Labour? Always voted

:33:22.:33:26.

Labour. But the other side are trenched too.

:33:27.:33:31.

Patrick Smith is secretary of Hull north Labour Party and a momentum

:33:32.:33:35.

organiser. Since the coup was launched, last week, we have seen

:33:36.:33:41.

more than 30 members a day, joining, so we are growing rapidly, and I

:33:42.:33:45.

would say that is thanks to Jeremy Corbyn. Do you think it is fair to

:33:46.:33:49.

say Labour is in a state of Civil War right now? Absolutely. I mean,

:33:50.:33:53.

how could you describe it any other way? But it's the MPs who have gone

:33:54.:33:58.

to war with the membership, not the membership who have gone to war with

:33:59.:34:02.

the MPs. Do you feel like you are going to bin that war? Yes. There is

:34:03.:34:09.

a lot more of us than there is of them.

:34:10.:34:14.

Well, if the Labour party is in a standoff, as Lewis

:34:15.:34:17.

suggests it might be, is it perhaps time to call

:34:18.:34:19.

For the party to split into its two component wings?

:34:20.:34:22.

Separating is all the fashion at the moment, after all.

:34:23.:34:25.

There were two influential political columnists today,

:34:26.:34:27.

one in the Times and one in the Financial Times,

:34:28.:34:29.

suggesting that this is no longer an unthinkable option.

:34:30.:34:31.

Proponents hate to call it an SDP mark 2,

:34:32.:34:33.

I'm joined by former Business Secretary Vince Cable,

:34:34.:34:38.

Ayesha Hazarika, who worked for Ed Miliband and Harriet Harman,

:34:39.:34:40.

Can I just start with you, have you had any conversations or heard any

:34:41.:35:00.

conversations about the idea of there being some break away or a

:35:01.:35:04.

split? I have spoken to a number of MPs and people round the Labour

:35:05.:35:08.

Party, today, and certainly there is lots of talk about it, it is in the

:35:09.:35:13.

zeitgeist. I think as much as it is trendy to talk about a conscious

:35:14.:35:18.

uncoupling, I think actually people's heart are not in it. Even

:35:19.:35:21.

though it is a very difficult time for the Labour Party, whether you

:35:22.:35:25.

call it Civil War, whether you call it an impasse, I think actually

:35:26.:35:30.

people's hearts are for sticking with the Labour Party, Neil Kinnock

:35:31.:35:34.

made an impassioned speech at Monday's night meeting of the

:35:35.:35:37.

Parliamentary Labour Party. People feel if the Labour Party was to

:35:38.:35:41.

split now, there might be a short kind of feel-good factor but it

:35:42.:35:47.

would do us real damage, on a long ongoing basis and probably deliver a

:35:48.:35:54.

right-wing Government, for decades. Could I ask though, we have sat, I

:35:55.:35:57.

don't know whether we have sat you in these seats or not. You are

:35:58.:36:02.

closer to Vince Cable, like you are this far from Vince Cable and you

:36:03.:36:05.

are this far from Jeremy Corbyn. You are much closer. You are much closer

:36:06.:36:10.

to Vince Cable than Jeremy Corbyn. I am going to push back on that, I

:36:11.:36:14.

think at the moment, the impasse we have got is not so much an

:36:15.:36:20.

ideological divide, lots of o people are welcoming of jer m's politics,

:36:21.:36:24.

social justice, equality, they are of their time, particularly the

:36:25.:36:27.

anti-austerity rhetoric. It is about the quality of his leadership. That

:36:28.:36:33.

is the issue. It is not ideological divide it is leadership. Vince

:36:34.:36:39.

Cable, close to sigh that. That is the honest answer. ? What would your

:36:40.:36:47.

advice be to the 150, 170 Labour MPs who are dissatisfied with their

:36:48.:36:52.

leader, they will be stuck with him because the party constitution will

:36:53.:36:57.

impose him on them. The present situation is not sustainable. They

:36:58.:37:01.

will be massacred at the next election, we are looking for the

:37:02.:37:04.

first time for decades, fundamental realignment. It is more likely to

:37:05.:37:10.

happen now, because the bonds of the voters to parties have gradually

:37:11.:37:13.

eroded and people are more open to it. It can happen in two ways, one

:37:14.:37:20.

is that my party rises from the Ashes, it is growing rapidly again

:37:21.:37:24.

and we then attract individuals, probably from the Labour Party, and

:37:25.:37:29.

some Tories too. And it becomes a genuine centre movement. The

:37:30.:37:32.

alternative is that the Labour Party split, you get a large chunk of not

:37:33.:37:38.

just old Social Democrats but centrist type Labour people. They

:37:39.:37:42.

become the centre of activity, and the anti-Tory front, and they try to

:37:43.:37:48.

work with us, the Greens and other, there are two different way, one

:37:49.:37:52.

will happen. There is a huge difference, one is a left-wing thing

:37:53.:37:55.

and another is a seven tourist thing. And I people in have been

:37:56.:37:58.

talking about the models as if they are one and the same. They are

:37:59.:38:03.

different. Rachel. I don't know whether you are a paid up member of

:38:04.:38:07.

Labour, I know you are more sympathetic to him. What do you feel

:38:08.:38:11.

when you hear Vince Cable outline the two paths? Well, I think I am

:38:12.:38:18.

more inclined to agree with Ayesha in the sense I don't think the

:38:19.:38:22.

Labour Party really wants to split. I think the people who are, have

:38:23.:38:28.

been having problems with Corbyn and voted against him, when it comes to

:38:29.:38:33.

down to it, don't really want to split the party, I mean it wouldn't

:38:34.:38:36.

be in their interests to split, and you know, go alone and be a small

:38:37.:38:42.

independent faction without the funding, and the organisational

:38:43.:38:46.

mechanisms and the backing of the Labour Party, and I think that you

:38:47.:38:50.

know, it wasn't that great that the vote of no confidence was carried

:38:51.:38:54.

out in a secret ballot but one of the advantages of after that is that

:38:55.:38:59.

we don't need to know, nobody need ever know who voted how, so that in

:39:00.:39:05.

the hopefully forthcoming reconciliation process, there is a

:39:06.:39:09.

way back, there is way to talk to core birntion and find way to

:39:10.:39:16.

resolve the issues, Unite have offered to mediate, they are

:39:17.:39:20.

professionally mediating. You are talking with Corbyn there, you are

:39:21.:39:24.

not saying let's save the party so my side will step down. I am talking

:39:25.:39:29.

about save the party, one of the major things about saving the party

:39:30.:39:32.

is saving the democratic processes of that party, you can't throw them

:39:33.:39:36.

in the air because you don't like the leader, because if you throw

:39:37.:39:40.

away the democratic process you have thrown away the party. Although the

:39:41.:39:44.

members are very important, but the Labour Party is a union between the

:39:45.:39:49.

members, and the people who are elected, to Parliament, by their

:39:50.:39:54.

constituencies, the public and MPs do lots of good work in Parliament.

:39:55.:39:58.

We have talked a lot about that over the last three week, particularly

:39:59.:40:02.

the light of Jo Cox, so the members are important, but the Labour Party

:40:03.:40:06.

is not just a pressure group. We have got think about the next

:40:07.:40:09.

general election, we have got to think about winning seat, not just

:40:10.:40:13.

stacking up a share of the vote. It is starting to great the implication

:40:14.:40:17.

that the people who support Corbyn are not interested in winning

:40:18.:40:20.

election, of course we are. Of course we are interested in power,

:40:21.:40:24.

that is what we are in it for, we want to see progressive change, we

:40:25.:40:29.

want an anti-austerity platform, now, we might disagree about the

:40:30.:40:33.

mechanisms, but there is a process, there is a democratic process, the

:40:34.:40:41.

party has. We need a good leader. The country is in massive crisis,

:40:42.:40:46.

right now, I mean, enormous, we have not had this in my lifetime. We

:40:47.:40:50.

desperately need a coherent opposition to face the Government.

:40:51.:40:53.

Whether it is in Parliament or in fresh election, and as long as the

:40:54.:40:59.

Labour Party is immersed in this totally navel-gazing, inward looking

:41:00.:41:02.

debate, that problem cannot be confronted. They have to start

:41:03.:41:08.

looking out ward. They do. They will not survive if they don't. I get the

:41:09.:41:13.

impression from MP, you and I are ain agreement Rachel. I don't think

:41:14.:41:17.

we want the party to split. There would be a heavy price to pay for

:41:18.:41:21.

that and there is one man that can stop that and that is Jeremy Corbyn.

:41:22.:41:25.

You are saying we agree we don't want to it split, I want your side

:41:26.:41:35.

to give way to mine. No. You are saying keep Corbyn, If the situation

:41:36.:41:40.

is versed I would say the same thing. Would they? Would you expect

:41:41.:41:46.

people to say things they do not believe out of loyalty for Jeremy

:41:47.:41:49.

Corbyn? Would he do that? Would he stick by a leader come what may?

:41:50.:41:54.

That is the thing, when it comes down to it, what is it, what are the

:41:55.:41:59.

policies that these MPs disagree with Corbyn on? What is it about...

:42:00.:42:06.

It is not an ideological... It is come fence in leadership. When you

:42:07.:42:11.

go for your next apraisele you can't say I think I am brilliant, even

:42:12.:42:16.

though I am sure they will, you can't just declare you are

:42:17.:42:19.

brilliant. When you win the leadership of the Labour Party, you

:42:20.:42:24.

win the right to, to lead, you win an opportunity to lead. You don't

:42:25.:42:28.

win a divine right to fail and cling on and destroy the party. I want to

:42:29.:42:34.

bring Vince in on this. The story of the SDP haunts this. You were there,

:42:35.:42:39.

you were involved. I was. Do you think of it being a success, what

:42:40.:42:41.

lessons would you draw? Some of the personalities are at the

:42:42.:42:52.

same, Jeremy Corbyn was a big figure in North London Labour. Europe was

:42:53.:42:57.

in the background. The difference is the way that the parties have

:42:58.:43:00.

changed, the old tribal loyalties have gone. From the point of view of

:43:01.:43:07.

Labour activists it was a failure because the Tories continued in

:43:08.:43:12.

power. In a deeper sense probably it was successful, it forced the Labour

:43:13.:43:17.

Party to confront electability and so you had real Kimmich and then

:43:18.:43:24.

John Smith and Tony Blair who made the party a highly successful party

:43:25.:43:28.

of government until the Iraq War. -- Neil Kinnock. Without the SDLP it

:43:29.:43:34.

would have been much more difficult to achieve. We will see if there is

:43:35.:43:41.

a split. Any predictions of that happening? I think the Labour Party

:43:42.:43:44.

will fight to reconcile and get some kind of marriage counselling sorted

:43:45.:43:51.

out, that is my hope. I think marriage counselling is the way

:43:52.:43:55.

forward, absolutely. If there are not irreconcilable differences.

:43:56.:43:57.

Now, before we go, it's the biggest day in Welsh

:43:58.:43:59.

football history tomorrow, as they take on Portugal

:44:00.:44:01.

in the semi-final of the European Championships.

:44:02.:44:03.

To get you in the mood, here's former National Poet

:44:04.:44:05.

of Wales, Gillian Clarke, who has recorded a special

:44:06.:44:07.

version of her poem, Stadium, just for us.

:44:08.:44:09.

The legend goes like this: the land is cold and bare,

:44:10.:44:19.

when the people wake to a strange new hope and a mood

:44:20.:44:22.

There is one with a silver boot and one with a raptor's stare,

:44:23.:44:27.

and all of them young and strung with steel, and ready

:44:28.:44:29.

There is one with the speed of a hound, and one with the heart

:44:30.:44:36.

of a hare, and millions to surge and urge them on,

:44:37.:44:38.

A cloud lifts from the land, the sun stands in the air,

:44:39.:44:45.

when the ball goes straight through the golden gate,

:44:46.:44:47.

like a comet with streaming hair, the bells will ring and the people

:44:48.:44:50.

Good evening. A rather cool might on the way but any early chill one

:44:51.:45:11.

debate but the sunshine tomorrow morning. The cloud increases from

:45:12.:45:16.

the West, turning some of the sunshine

:45:17.:45:18.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS