13/07/2016 Newsnight


13/07/2016

Evan Davis discusses Theresa May as prime minister and the new cabinet, including the appointment of Boris Johnson as foreign secretary and the absence of George Osbourne.


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THERESA MAY: We are living through an important moment

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We face a time of great national change.

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If you're just managing, I want to address you directly.

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When we take the big calls, we'll think not of the

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We'll listen not to the mighty but to you.

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We'll prioritise not the wealthy, but you.

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We won't entrench the advantages of the fortunate few.

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And we will make Britain a country that works not for a privileged few,

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# But I'll still reach out to the top

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There was a changing of the guard at Buckingham Palace today.

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The man who won an election a year ago met the Queen this afternoon,

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Then as he was driven out, Theresa May was driven in to be

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For those that have found the last three weeks

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disconcertingly turbulent, the familiar routine

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of the cars coming and going, that peaceful transfer of power,

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We are surely in the early stages of a national adventure.

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For a start, Boris Johnson is Foreign Secretary.

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Plus, two other Brexiteers have the job of delivering Brexit.

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And Theresa May made clear beyond that, there'll be

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To kick us off I'm here with Newsnight's own cabinet -

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our policy editor Chris Cook, diplomatic editor Mark Urban,

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business editor Helen Thomas and political editor Nick Watt.

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Nick, let's start with the new appointments.

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Yes, if Margaret Thatcher was not returning, Theresa May was not for

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waiting. Within one hour of arriving in Downing Street, she was launching

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her new cabinet. She didn't want such a prominent face from the

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failed side of the referendum, so George Osborne was out. There are

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Brexiteer Limerick in charge of taking a side of the European Union,

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Boris Johnson, big senior post for him, David Davis was a tough nut as

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John Major's Europe minister and he will be in charge of the

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nitty-gritty negotiations are getting is out, and Liam Fox, former

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Defence Secretary is going to be in charge of international trade

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negotiating new deals outside the EU. We can see pictures of them

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tripping up Downing Street to hear their positions. We have seen the

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three Brexiteers. Three men, all Brexiteers, but there was balance in

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the Cabinet as well. Yes, another key theme is unity, seasonal to big

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posts the two remainders, Amber Rudd as Home Secretary, Theresa May has a

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high regard for her, and early job she had was aristocracy adviser for

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the film Forwarding Is In A Funeral. Helen, the economics, Philip

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Hammond, what do we know about him? We saw this huge change. He looks

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like a choice designed to reassure. There is a hint of continuity, he

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worked with George Osborne shadowing the Treasury in opposition, he is

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known as a fiscal hawk so perhaps his inclination will be to keep a

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tight grip on the purse strings, but he is taking over in very different

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times. The economy and the fiscal position, Theresa May was describing

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quite an ambitious agenda. The economy may not be working to her

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favour for all of that. Absolutely, that is the big unknown. Nobody

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really knows what the uncertainty around Brexit is going to mean the

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economy, what damage is being done or maybe done. Philip Hammond has

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this balancing act. On the one hand he has a weakening economy which

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will make the target harder, but he has a boss who wants less austerity,

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so how he manages that balancing act will be the question. A big question

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for the rest of this Parliament. And foreign policy, Mark. Boris Johnson,

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Foreign Secretary, who would have thought it? Clearly if you look at

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Twitter, people find that rather gag-tastic. There could be some

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dodgy missions going across the desk of MI6. Remember he had an

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unsuccessful trip abroad to Israel and Palestine when he was the mayor.

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The best he can do is to be an ambassador and go out and sell the

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country. We need to talk about the Boris style of diplomacy, and he has

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history. I can read you a couple of quotes, on the Queen and

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Commonwealth, it supplies with regular clearing -- cheering crowds

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of flag-waving piggy ninnies. Just a couple of months ago, his limerick

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about the president of Turkey. There was a young fellow from Ankara... He

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won a prize in the Spectator magazine for that poetry. Are people

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outside of Britain,, will they take him seriously? They will have to.

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The real thing to look for here is the way the Foreign Office itself is

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being eclipsed now, for a long time Downing Street has taken on the

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important stuff, and in this Brexit moment, we can look at this trio of

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people Theresa May has put together. Boris will only be doing a small

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part of it. David Davis, tough negotiator, Liam Fox, and if it is

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proving really hard to disentangle freedom of movement from free trade

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access, or other free trade deals are not rolling in, who better to

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point that out than those three experts, Fox, Johnson and Davis?

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Let's talk about Brexit, Chris. We know a little bit about what David

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Davis' vision is. This week he published an article about his

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vision, and I'm not a trade expert. I think whoever wrote that isn't a

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trade expert either. There are some fairly fundamental problems with it,

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his idea we could put together trade deals that give us something better

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than they -- than the EU in one or to years, that is ambitious. He is

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very dismissive of what economists call nontariff barriers, the admin

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required to get stuff over a border can be more important than the

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tariff. He is also very nonchalant about services. He talks a lot about

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what would happen if Germany blocked our car exports, not a lot about law

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or advertising or things where we make a lot of money. We have talked

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about some of the themes. Let's get on with the rest of the programme.

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Theresa May pitched herself as a continuity candidate,

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but from the moment she arrived in Downing Street, it looked

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In particular, some radical words on how Government is now

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Here's Nick's take on this historic day.

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Her Majesty is well versed in the rituals of the transfer of power in

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her kingdom. After seven decades on the throne.

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But rarely can the Queen have seen such a ruthless display of prime

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ministerial authority so soon after her new First Minister took leave of

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her in Buckingham Palace. We believe in a union not just between the

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nations of the United Kingdom, but between all of our citizens,

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everyone of us, whoever we are, and wherever we are from. That means

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fighting against the burning injustice, that if you are born poor

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you will die on average nine years earlier than others, if you are

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black, you are treated more harshly by the Criminal Justice Act and the

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nephew white, if you are white, working-class boy, you are less

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likely than anybody else in to go to university,. In her first speech

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outside her new home, she lavished praise on David Cameron, but left no

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one in any doubt that the personal political credo of this grammar

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school girl would be different to her Tony and predecessor. A decade

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ago, David Cameron George Osborne said to themselves and private how

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remarkable it was the speed with which they took over the

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Conservative Party. But they also said to themselves that they could

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lose that within a nanosecond. This evening they learned how true that

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prediction was when the new Prime Minister marched into Downing Street

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and said that the era of the privileged few running number ten

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was over, and then she unceremoniously ended George

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Osborne's Cabinet career. Few in Westminster were mourning the demise

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of George Osborne as the Tory party woke up on this balmy summers

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evening to the new regime. Politics is brutal, it really is, and not

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just the senior cabinet ministers and ministers, but all of their

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teams who have been working extraordinarily hard, suddenly

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nothing. I am a select committee chair, and they are about the only

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people who still have a job, because we were elected by parliament, but

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it is a brutal business. The senior Cabinet appointments were the most

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eye-catching. Theresa May's allies were keen to point to her message to

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the nation on how she will govern in a different manner. Frankly, a

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priority for Theresa May is always that of those who are disadvantaged.

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She is the daughter of a vicar, I think her late father must have

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instilled in her this issue of looking after those who are

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disadvantaged, making sure the state supports those who need help, and I

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see from that speech, my interpretation is going to be a

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powerful agenda going forward. I was the future once!

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LAUGHTER David Cameron left Parliament on a

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warm note. He knows that his vision to keep Britain in a reformed EU has

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failed. Theresa May would like her Premiership to be remembered for

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great social reforms, but she knows it will be defined by her success or

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failure in negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. Supporters who did

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a different view to the new Prime Minister in the referendum say she

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could deliver a deal. Theresa May was a Remain. I am an Out. But there

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is no longer a difference between the camps. She has been clear that

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we are not going back on that vote but we will make it work for

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Britain. As Kennedy put it, we must not negotiate in fear but neither

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must we fear to negotiate. I think Theresa has set out a stall that she

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intends us to negotiate as a strong country in a positive spirit. Nigel

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Farage doesn't represent this country. We will be a responsible

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European neighbour and nation contributing to the Globe and to

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Europe, but just not within that political structure. Theresa May is

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a rare political beast, a senior figure who is barely known even

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after a decade at the top. Friends say the country will soon warmed to

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their new Prime Minister. Where on earth does this

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leave the Conservatives? United around the slogan Brexit

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means Brexit, but what does United around the vision

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for the disadvantaged? United around the socially liberal

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agenda, for same-sex Let's talk to two people

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from different wings of the Conservative Party -

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the MP Heidi Allen, and Peter Lilley, who was a Cabinet

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minister in the Thatcher Good evening to you both. Heidi

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Diallo, are you happy with what you heard? It feels like the

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Conservatives reborn. I couldn't believe what I was hearing from

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Theresa May. It feels like everything I said in my maiden

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speech, and this is a new era, it is brilliant. You had been in the

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referendum campaign, a bit rude about Boris Johnson. He is now

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suddenly back. In a different role. I wasn't rude about him, I just felt

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that his intentions were not actually around the country and

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whether Brexit was the right thing, just about whether he wanted to be

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leader, and I didn't feel he was the right man, so I am delighted. Are

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you on board, Peter Lilley? I was confiding in your earlier that I am

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unusually euphoric. I don't know euphoria normally, but I feel we are

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heading in the right direction, we can get on with it, and I think she

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has created a structure which will enable us to speed up the process

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far more than people are expecting. Let's come to Brexit in a minute.

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When she spoke about the nasty party, back in 2002, many would say

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she was really talking about the tone and the policies, some of which

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were associated with you as the welfare and social security in the

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90s. Are you happy that the journey the party has taken, through David

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Cameron to the tone she struck today, you are completely happy with

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that? Yes, very much so. I think we ought

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to be a party whose focus is on those who can least help themselves.

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We obviously want to let everybody fulfil their potential because,

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unless they do, we won't be able to help those who can least help

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themselves. We have to enable people to fulfil their potential so we have

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the wealth and the ability to help those who are at the bottom of the

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pile who have least opportunities. Can I take it that social

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liberalism, same-sex marriage, that debate is over. You were against it

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when the vote came up. It's done. Everybody seems to be accepting that

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now. I hope so. What about the economic liberalism? We think of the

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Conservatives as being deregulators. Today we were hearing workers'

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rights are back on the agenda. You are comfortable with that? Is that

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the party you joined? Why can't we do both? It is about finding the

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right amount for the right context, isn't it? Saying that you are the

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party that wants to overregulate everything, or under... The world

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isn't like that now. We have to be flexible. I was so pleased to hear

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Theresa May talking about some of the more difficult things for a

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Conservative Party to get a hold on, but we have to do it. The journey

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you described to Peter, yes, we have come through it. What we need to do

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is convince the people that we have come through it. And that will be

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harder but it is doable. We are all social liberals now. Are you not

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still an economic liberal? Do you not fear that National Living Wage

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at ?9, some of the talk about other stuff... You either had to have a

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Minimum Income Guarantee or a minimum wage. We had a mixture of

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the two, which is rather silly. Now we have moved to having a living

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wage. That should be the basic protection for people in work. And I

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think that is very acceptable. I never believed you could have

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neither. Right. You are sounding all in harmony with everything you have

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heard... That is very disappointing for TV, but it happens to be true.

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That's fine. I'm trying to get clear where everybody is. Doesn't it show

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how we had to get the right leader? Somebody who had been so neutral

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that could do what we are experiencing now, bring both sides

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together. I don't want to intrude, I don't want to poop the party you are

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having. Let's talk about Brexit. The three Brexit leaders, Liam Fox,

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Boris Johnson and David Davis, I don't know if they have the same

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vision of Brexit. What is the minimum Brexit that means Brexit?

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Well, it was about taking back control of our laws, money and our

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borders. We have to do those things. I hear lots of discussion about

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negotiation. There will have to be some ne gogs Asians. --

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negotiations. What I hope she's created a structure, she's got David

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Davis there, I hope she will lead the process in the way Ted Heath led

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the opposite process. I hope David Davis will have that delegated power

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from her so we can get it done quicker because the one danger we

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face is uncertainty. The sooner we can have it done, the less

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uncertainty. Philip Hammond suggested it would take six years?

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That is one reason why he will be a much better Chancellor than Foreign

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Secretary. I wonder putting those three to look after the process, is

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that a reward for what they did in the referendum? Or is it, OK, guys,

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nothing to do with me, it is yours to sort out? I think it's probably

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70% the former and a tiny bit the latter. If you want something to be

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done well you have to appoint people that believe in it. Theresa May

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recognises her strengths in leadership and it is all about

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having the right team. I wonder, Peter, if they don't get remotely

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what they have written they are going to get... What have they

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written? David Davis has written a big piece on what he is going to

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achieve. If he doesn't get close to that, and there are people that are

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sceptical, do we have to have another referendum on the deal that

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emerges? No, it wouldn't depend on David Davis achieving what he's

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written in one article. Right. The referendum result was clear. We have

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to deliver it. There isn't too much doubt about that delivery. We also

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have to go into any negotiations on trade, which will take place after

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we have left. We have to go there with a hard-headed realisation that

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if it's trading on WTO tariff terms, so be it, we don't want that. That

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is the backstop? Only if you go into negotiations knowing that you can

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take what they think is the worst they can impose on you, that you can

:20:09.:20:14.

succeed. And then we will get a good deal for us, for Europe and for the

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world. So much to pan out over the next few years. Thank you both very

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much. Now, we need to talk

:20:21.:20:22.

about economic policy. Can I be the first to label it

:20:23.:20:23.

Theresa-nomics? But call it whatever you want,

:20:24.:20:26.

we know a little of what it consists of, and the most striking paradox

:20:27.:20:30.

about the transfer of power today, is that having voted to leave

:20:31.:20:34.

the EU, with many arguing that we can Britain could be

:20:35.:20:36.

liberated to become a kind of deregulated offshore enterprise

:20:37.:20:39.

hub like Singapore or Hong Kong, we've appointed as Prime Minister

:20:40.:20:43.

who seems keen on regulation, particularly the stuff

:20:44.:20:45.

that makes us more Here's our business

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editor, Helen Thomas. We are told that Brexit means

:20:49.:21:02.

Brexit, so what does that mean? The UK somehow needs to dismantle its

:21:03.:21:08.

relationship with the European Union, piece by piece, the rules

:21:09.:21:11.

governing everything from trade in the economy, Labour, immigration,

:21:12.:21:16.

environmental protection are likely to change. But how? One Brexit

:21:17.:21:22.

blueprint, a regular feature of the campaign, takes its inspiration from

:21:23.:21:26.

the glinting skyscrapers of Hong Kong or Singapore.

:21:27.:21:31.

An open free trade economy shorn of the red tape and stifling

:21:32.:21:36.

bureaucracy of the EU single market and with lower taxes and lighter

:21:37.:21:40.

regulation for business. Indeed, George Osborne seemed to nod to this

:21:41.:21:46.

with his post-vote pledge to cut corporation tax below 15%. But not

:21:47.:21:51.

so fast. Maybe Singapore isn't the place for us. Theresa May this week

:21:52.:21:56.

laid out a very different vision for Britain's business future. She was

:21:57.:22:00.

still in campaigning mode before all the twists and turns that handed her

:22:01.:22:04.

the keys to Number Ten, but she spoke about an economy that works

:22:05.:22:09.

for everyone, that could involve constraints on executive pay, it

:22:10.:22:12.

could mean a stronger Government hand in areas like competition

:22:13.:22:17.

policy, or in foreign takeovers. It could also, she said, mean putting

:22:18.:22:22.

not just consumers on companies' boards, but employees as well.

:22:23.:22:27.

An industrial strategy that takes a sceptical look at foreign takeovers

:22:28.:22:31.

has a distinctly European flavour. And putting workers or their

:22:32.:22:34.

representatives on to companies' boards is a page straight out of

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German corporate governance 101. She's identified a real problem. I

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don't think she's got the right solution, the right solution is to

:22:44.:22:47.

put more responsibility on investment institutions. It doesn't

:22:48.:22:51.

link in with what George Osborne has been saying about the economy, so we

:22:52.:22:56.

don't have a joined up Government strategy towards the economy and

:22:57.:23:00.

towards business. We don't know much about Theresa May's economic

:23:01.:23:03.

thinking. She's never been in the Treasury. She's never been in the

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Department of Business. So we are going to have to learn these things

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over the next few weeks. I hope she gets on with it. The paradox is that

:23:11.:23:15.

those who thought they knew what Brexit model they were signing up to

:23:16.:23:20.

may find that the finished article looks rather different. We are

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headed for Brexit. Destination unknown.

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I'm joined now by the Brexit-supporting

:23:28.:23:28.

economist Gerard Lyons, and by Remainer Mariana Mazzucato

:23:29.:23:32.

whose book Rethinking Capitalism addresses many of the financial

:23:33.:23:35.

issues that will confront the new Prime Minister.

:23:36.:23:38.

And first, Rupert Harrison, who worked as George

:23:39.:23:40.

How much of Osborne-nomics do you think survives the transition? Apart

:23:41.:23:54.

from dealing with Brexit and the relationship with the EU, which is

:23:55.:23:58.

going to overwhelm economic policy making for the next few years, other

:23:59.:24:04.

than that, Theresa May, there is going to be a change of emphasis and

:24:05.:24:08.

tone. It will be continuity, largely. It will be struggling still

:24:09.:24:11.

with public finances that are not going to be ideal and if you think

:24:12.:24:16.

about the big, some of the big themes of economic policy of the

:24:17.:24:20.

last six years, that's included taxes on the low-paid, the National

:24:21.:24:26.

Living Wage, binding shareholder votes on executive pay, tax

:24:27.:24:31.

avoidance, tax evasion. It will be more continuity. Have you spoken to

:24:32.:24:36.

George tonight? No. Do you think he will look back on his time at Number

:24:37.:24:45.

11 with satisfaction? He wanted a different result in the referendum.

:24:46.:24:49.

Overall, I think so. The judgment must be he inherited an economy at

:24:50.:24:54.

one of the darkest moments in our economic history. I remember Mervyn

:24:55.:24:58.

King before 2010 said, whoever inherited the situation at the

:24:59.:25:05.

upcoming election would have to take such difficult decisions that they

:25:06.:25:09.

would be out of power for a generation. Then we had unemployment

:25:10.:25:16.

fall to 5%, the highest employment rate in our history, GDP growth has

:25:17.:25:20.

been the same as the US over the last six years, so he could be

:25:21.:25:24.

satisfied with that part of it. Mariana Mazzucato, how big a change,

:25:25.:25:29.

if you take Theresa May at her word, at what she said in speeches, how

:25:30.:25:33.

big a change is that? If you take her three big points, which are

:25:34.:25:37.

productivity, lagging wages and the need to reform executive pay, and

:25:38.:25:47.

the need for - she said industrial policy - Vince Cable did, the

:25:48.:25:54.

current minister has not said that word. He is running the Ministry as

:25:55.:25:59.

an enterprise zone, I think, which is about reducing different types of

:26:00.:26:05.

impediments for business. If she goes ahead with those three things,

:26:06.:26:10.

really tackling productivity, tackling executive pay and

:26:11.:26:13.

reigniting a vision around industrial policy and innovation

:26:14.:26:17.

policy, that will require a massive change, a change within the

:26:18.:26:20.

Treasury, but especially she will need absolutely a new minister in

:26:21.:26:25.

this because, currently, they are not, if you want, running a show

:26:26.:26:31.

that is trying to get long-term investment in this country. Hammond,

:26:32.:26:35.

I found very interesting, he continued to say that financial

:26:36.:26:38.

services is one of our key industries. That depends on what you

:26:39.:26:43.

finance to do. Finance is not serving the real economy. Nothing

:26:44.:26:47.

has been done on that. If she wants to have proper innovation policy, we

:26:48.:26:51.

will need proper kind of finance. Do you think what we heard today,

:26:52.:26:57.

Gerard Lyons, a big shift or maybe it is just words? There will be a

:26:58.:27:00.

significant shift. There is some continuity in the fact that the

:27:01.:27:03.

Conservatives were elected on the manifesto last year, so they still

:27:04.:27:08.

have to... What do you mean, they junked the fiscal stuff? On fiscal

:27:09.:27:15.

stuff, they do need... There will be some continuity. I was going on to

:27:16.:27:20.

say, there needs to be a significant shift. The previous Chancellor

:27:21.:27:27.

became far too tactical. We need to see more investment, more

:27:28.:27:29.

innovation, and more infrastructure spending. The UK Government can

:27:30.:27:34.

borrow at the lowest rate ever. It's been lower now than it was in recent

:27:35.:27:38.

years, so that creates a great opportunity. Monetary policy has in

:27:39.:27:43.

the past and is still now a big shock absorber for the economy, so

:27:44.:27:46.

that is still there. Fiscal policy needs to move on. We had Brexit

:27:47.:27:51.

strategy. There are three pots we need to look at. Hold the Brexit one

:27:52.:28:00.

for a minute. We have a fantastic opportunity to reposition the UK in

:28:01.:28:06.

the changing growing global economy, despite the near term uncertainty,

:28:07.:28:10.

there are lots of positives and it is about positioning ourselves with

:28:11.:28:18.

India, China... I just want... I just want to put one of your points.

:28:19.:28:22.

It sounds like that the gist of these two guys is, this is a

:28:23.:28:27.

complete turnaround because there was too much austerity, he

:28:28.:28:32.

underinvested, borrowing was cheap, this is ripping up George Osborne's

:28:33.:28:37.

policies? Theresa May will be thrilled to hear this. Look, there

:28:38.:28:42.

is going to be a change of tone. As I say, the elephant in the room is

:28:43.:28:46.

Brexit renegotiating our trade relations with the rest of the room.

:28:47.:28:51.

Outside that, it will be continuity. Puts curbs on executive pay... She

:28:52.:29:00.

talked about tax avoidance, tax evasion. She is a new Prime

:29:01.:29:03.

Minister. She wants to put a new tone, new emphasis. As I say,

:29:04.:29:10.

outside of the core issues... Industrial strategy, it is true that

:29:11.:29:17.

that phrase has not been used by Sajid Javid. If she was to do what

:29:18.:29:22.

she said, that would require a revolution. I don't think it will be

:29:23.:29:27.

possible. Brexit, as David Cameron has said, will occupy the Civil

:29:28.:29:31.

Service for the next decade. It is a complete waste of time. The

:29:32.:29:36.

investment you are talking about in research and development, the

:29:37.:29:42.

investment in human capital formation, by the way, are not going

:29:43.:29:47.

to happen. 80 billion euros of research money is what we no longer

:29:48.:29:49.

have access to. Quite on the contrary. We often

:29:50.:30:05.

overlook the fact that we gave Brussels most of the money in the

:30:06.:30:09.

first place. Let's not have the Brexit argument yet. What Rupert was

:30:10.:30:15.

saying was very important, it is about enabling the environment at

:30:16.:30:18.

the past, and it is about creating an enabling environment again. But

:30:19.:30:22.

don't you think there has been a shift in emphasis towards a more

:30:23.:30:28.

continental model with more regulation, the exact opposite of

:30:29.:30:31.

what you Brexiteers were selling to us, which was a kind of

:30:32.:30:37.

deregulated... That is how you would like it to be. That is how you were

:30:38.:30:42.

telling us it was going to be. The benefit is trying to pick Best

:30:43.:30:45.

practice from around the world, but we need to do what suits the UK

:30:46.:30:49.

economy, and it does come back to the Brexit issue. That was very much

:30:50.:30:54.

about three pots, to need to be ticked, the sovereignty and having

:30:55.:31:01.

an immigration policy, probably a points-based immigration system, and

:31:02.:31:05.

we don't need to be in the single market. As Peter Lilley was saying,

:31:06.:31:12.

it is about positioning the UK outside the single market with an

:31:13.:31:15.

eye on the Kontinen and the global economy. The key change... For what

:31:16.:31:31.

kind of investment? We continue to have lagging investment in this

:31:32.:31:34.

country, we have very low business spending. What actually died

:31:35.:31:41.

investment in the long-term, not the short term cheap investment that

:31:42.:31:49.

just reducing taxes... It is not money, it is capacity in key things

:31:50.:31:53.

like rail and road. And we will come back... What kind of infrastructure?

:31:54.:31:58.

Green infrastructure, that is what we want. I'm so sorry, we will have

:31:59.:32:05.

to come back. There is so much, we will have to disentangle this and

:32:06.:32:08.

put it into ten discussions over the next five years!

:32:09.:32:11.

One thing that is painfully obvious is how divided the country has

:32:12.:32:14.

been over the last few months, not to mention

:32:15.:32:16.

Suddenly, Theresa May has risen to the top,

:32:17.:32:19.

powered by a remarkable sense of unity.

:32:20.:32:21.

It's not just the goodwill that's shown to a new occupant

:32:22.:32:24.

of Downing Street; she has not stabbed anyone, stamped

:32:25.:32:26.

on their head or questioned their ability to govern on account

:32:27.:32:28.

By universal acclaim, she was the grown-up

:32:29.:32:39.

The Tory Party thought that, and most of those to the left

:32:40.:32:43.

of the Tory Party thought that too, at least in comparison

:32:44.:32:46.

But it is a thin crust of unity, atop a torrid overheated soup.

:32:47.:32:50.

We'll talk more on that, but first, the issue of immigration proved one

:32:51.:32:53.

of the most divisive in the referendum.

:32:54.:32:55.

Katie Razzall went to Birmingham, Britain's second largest city,

:32:56.:32:57.

to find out what people on all sides of the immigration divide feel

:32:58.:33:00.

Political faces of the past are on show in Birmingham at a time when

:33:01.:33:05.

modern politics has been in turmoil. It was Tony Blair who opened the

:33:06.:33:09.

door to EU migration on a grand scale. As Home Secretary, our new

:33:10.:33:13.

Prime Minister tried and failed to get the numbers down. She had a

:33:14.:33:18.

tough line on immigration before, and I think that will continue now.

:33:19.:33:24.

She was the Home Secretary that introduced vans that offered illegal

:33:25.:33:27.

immigrant is an easy pass home, so I think it is fair to say with some of

:33:28.:33:31.

her tough rules, some of them being controversial, we are only going to

:33:32.:33:35.

continue to go down that road, and coming from a migrant background, it

:33:36.:33:39.

does make you wonder whether we are as welcome here in the country as we

:33:40.:33:45.

have been previously. I don't think she is somebody who from her own

:33:46.:33:48.

personal Per Spett of values immigration, and whether we like it

:33:49.:33:57.

or not, we are of immigrants. That is how some perceived Theresa May's

:33:58.:34:04.

immigration stance. Her limits on non-EU migrants divided opinion, as

:34:05.:34:09.

did her speech at last year's Conservative conference. When

:34:10.:34:14.

immigration is too high, when the pace of change is too fast, it is

:34:15.:34:19.

impossible to build a cohesive society. There is no doubt

:34:20.:34:24.

immigration played a key role in the referendum. Almost all of the West

:34:25.:34:29.

Midlands region voted leave, including multicultural Birmingham.

:34:30.:34:36.

I met a restaurant and leave voter. So quickly it happened, it is

:34:37.:34:46.

unbelievable. Mr Haque wants immigration restrictions cut to

:34:47.:34:49.

allow more immigration Chip Kelly for chefs -- particularly the chess.

:34:50.:35:01.

She has made it corrugated for us, and now she is the Prime Minister.

:35:02.:35:09.

She will have to change. Across the West Midlands and beyond, hate

:35:10.:35:12.

crimes rose after Brexit, like at this halal shop, firebombed in

:35:13.:35:17.

Walsall. Theresa May has touted herself as a unifier of the country.

:35:18.:35:22.

On a more local level, others are attempting unity. At Birmingham

:35:23.:35:27.

social enterprise, they are creating a hate crimes toolkit. Theresa May

:35:28.:35:31.

will have to do a lot more to persuade them of her unifying

:35:32.:35:35.

credentials. I categorically don't believe that we can get behind a

:35:36.:35:39.

leader that has not been democratically elected, she doesn't

:35:40.:35:43.

have the mandate from the people. Some of the language we are hearing,

:35:44.:35:47.

the statistics we see from her past policies and how she wants to move

:35:48.:35:52.

forward well add to the divides and divisions, and the pain we are

:35:53.:35:56.

feeling as a country, particularly around immigration, equality and

:35:57.:36:01.

justice. I am not happy that this is the person who is supposed to

:36:02.:36:04.

represent us in our time of need and bring us together, and unite us and

:36:05.:36:09.

hope. But of course there are plenty who believe that our country will

:36:10.:36:13.

stay divided if Me doesn't deliver on Brexit. In West Bromwich I met

:36:14.:36:22.

activists determined to keep pushing the new PM forward, someone they

:36:23.:36:25.

believed failed on immigration as Home Secretary. She says she is

:36:26.:36:30.

tough on immigration, but her time in the Home Office hasn't proved

:36:31.:36:35.

that. As a country, we should be able to choose who comes in and who

:36:36.:36:40.

doesn't. So if she doesn't deliver that? I think it will be massive

:36:41.:36:45.

around here. Definitely. I think everybody is jittery about it, she

:36:46.:36:48.

is an unknown quantity, but that is the same with any Prime Minister.

:36:49.:36:54.

Delivering Brexit will be Theresa May's most pressing concern, but she

:36:55.:36:57.

will need to do it whilst uniting communities, not driving them apart.

:36:58.:37:01.

Joining me in the studio now is the Times columnist

:37:02.:37:04.

Matthew Parris, Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee, senior editor

:37:05.:37:05.

of the Economist, Anne McElvoy, and down the line from East Sussex,

:37:06.:37:08.

the former editor of the Telegraph and Thatcher

:37:09.:37:10.

Good evening to you all. Let's start with the positives. What has been

:37:11.:37:20.

good for the Tory party and about Theresa May? The good thing is she

:37:21.:37:27.

is therein a relatively short time, and the blood-letting stopped quite

:37:28.:37:30.

quickly, and it was considerable blood-letting. We have seen the

:37:31.:37:34.

divisions intensified since the vote, and the fact that they were

:37:35.:37:43.

able to stop this feud between the Brexiteers and gone over a kind of

:37:44.:37:47.

middle ground leader who will deliver most of what the Brexiteers

:37:48.:37:51.

want, but was Remain and has kept some prominent new remain as in the

:37:52.:37:57.

Cabinet, that is the main thing. Are you happy today, Polly? You would

:37:58.:38:02.

prefer Theresa May to Andrea Leadsom? Absolutely. I am impressed

:38:03.:38:06.

with the ruthless speed with which they have affected this. The removal

:38:07.:38:13.

van was there, he is gone, the next one in. The contrast with Labour is

:38:14.:38:21.

so excruciating, it really is. I think what we always see is the

:38:22.:38:25.

Tories know about power. They know what they are there for and how to

:38:26.:38:31.

do it. But tanks on the Labour lawn, all of this blue collar Conservatism

:38:32.:38:34.

that is the pitch, I don't know if you believe it will happen, but...

:38:35.:38:39.

They are terribly good at that. Saint Francis of Assisi from

:38:40.:38:45.

Margaret Thatcher, and think of Cameron's greenest government ever

:38:46.:38:53.

and hugging would and huskies. We are on the positives! She did it

:38:54.:39:00.

very well, I will say that for her, and we wait to see if it is real.

:39:01.:39:06.

Are you feeling euphoric? She is excellent, she is the best leader

:39:07.:39:08.

the Conservative Party could have on the circumstances, call her Theresa

:39:09.:39:14.

May jar or Teresa Millburn. But it isn't really a very easy question,

:39:15.:39:20.

the question is, can anyone do the job. That brings us to Charles. Can

:39:21.:39:29.

any one do this job? It certainly has a decent chance of working, but

:39:30.:39:35.

there are tensions in there. They can't yet be resolved. What it

:39:36.:39:40.

essentially is is that Theresa May is a Remain leading a Brexit policy,

:39:41.:39:47.

and while that can bring some sort of unity, it also makes you wonder

:39:48.:39:51.

what is going on, because you can't really be a remain any more because

:39:52.:39:55.

we are not going to remain, so we have to hear from Theresa day we

:39:56.:40:01.

Brexit is a good thing, and she has to have a vision of why it is an

:40:02.:40:05.

enormous thing, and I think there is a slight tendon set to see it as a

:40:06.:40:10.

compartment. You put it all in one compartment and get on with the rest

:40:11.:40:13.

of what is happening, but this is about becoming a free country again,

:40:14.:40:18.

with massive consequences for what Parliament does, foreign policy,

:40:19.:40:23.

trade, the environment, for the union possibly, so all of this has

:40:24.:40:28.

to be expressed positively. So she has to pretend to be keen on it? I

:40:29.:40:38.

think she has to be keen on it. If she is pretending, she will be found

:40:39.:40:43.

out. Matthew, it is hard to see how decades of Tory divisions on our

:40:44.:40:48.

relationship with Europe could be resolved by this. If anyone can do

:40:49.:40:53.

it, she can. I agree with Charles, she has to be keen on it, she will

:40:54.:40:58.

be. She has been given a job by the party, and that is to deliver the

:40:59.:41:02.

best possible deal she can. The question is, how good a deal can she

:41:03.:41:08.

deliver? I am a Marxist in this respect, there are terrible

:41:09.:41:10.

underlying forces in history and economics, and she will face in 34

:41:11.:41:17.

years in which the domestic economy, she will run out of money, and she

:41:18.:41:21.

is running out of friends, Britain is running out of friends abroad. If

:41:22.:41:25.

anybody can square this circle, she can do it, but can anybody? No Prime

:41:26.:41:30.

Minister has ever arrived in office with us knowing so little about her.

:41:31.:41:35.

No hustings, no electioneering, we know nothing about her economics.

:41:36.:41:45.

She is a much better known quality than anyone else, we know the cut of

:41:46.:41:52.

her jib, and in terms of wanting to remain, she was marginal. All awful

:41:53.:41:56.

lot of people were on the margins of remain Brexit, and we talk about

:41:57.:42:00.

this as if it were some kind of religious tribe who went to

:42:01.:42:03.

extremes. That is what this Cabinet reshuffle is that she has done is

:42:04.:42:09.

trying to reflect. I'm sure as Matthew and Charles were both

:42:10.:42:13.

saying, feud tensions underlie this, and they are now rocketing through

:42:14.:42:17.

both main parties. You describe Brexit as if it were a thing, a

:42:18.:42:21.

known quantity. Nobody knows what it is, it is what anybody wants it to

:42:22.:42:25.

be. Charles, do you trust Theresa May to deliver what the voters said

:42:26.:42:31.

they wanted back on June the 23rd? And do we know what that is? I think

:42:32.:42:36.

she will certainly try to do that, but I think she does have a big Rob.

:42:37.:42:42.

What happened in the vote was that it was enormous popular rejection of

:42:43.:42:44.

the view of almost everybody in charge of everything. And Mrs May

:42:45.:42:50.

comes in as a representative of that defeated establishment. She is doing

:42:51.:42:56.

a good job of trying to bring it all in together, and she is saying the

:42:57.:42:59.

right sort of thing, but it is a fundamental problem that she is not

:43:00.:43:02.

what people were asking for when they voted in the largest vote in

:43:03.:43:11.

British history for anything. And Mrs May was against it, and she is

:43:12.:43:14.

part of what they were rebelling against, so she has a lot of work to

:43:15.:43:19.

do. Matthew? We know what people were asking for, they were asking

:43:20.:43:23.

for things no one can deliver, and Mrs May can't deliver them. She will

:43:24.:43:29.

do her best... Will the party falls apart again when she delivers, let's

:43:30.:43:41.

say, Brexit -lite. She has gone about it in a canny way, she has

:43:42.:43:45.

appointed the geldings rather than the stallions of Brexit, Boris and

:43:46.:43:53.

Liam Fox and David Davis. They will do their best, but she will never

:43:54.:43:57.

satisfy Charles Moore, she will never satisfy the ultra-in the

:43:58.:44:05.

Conservative Party who would always believe that some marvellous deal

:44:06.:44:09.

could have been done if only we had had the right leader. Boris wants to

:44:10.:44:17.

have his cake and eat it. This is a pragmatic country, and the people

:44:18.:44:21.

who concede the best, as Blair did and as Cameron did for a while,

:44:22.:44:25.

people who somehow come through the middle, or they create the new

:44:26.:44:29.

middle, that is what she has to do. I hope she can. I'm sure it is

:44:30.:44:34.

difficult, but I don't believe the country is so polarised that there

:44:35.:44:39.

isn't a way through. Labour could find it if they wanted to, and if

:44:40.:44:44.

they don't, the Conservatives will. This country is in the midst of its

:44:45.:44:48.

deepest, most serious crisis that Cameron has left us with that she

:44:49.:44:52.

has to pick up the pieces from. She may be the best person on offer to

:44:53.:44:57.

do that, but don't underestimate the Herculean task. Charles Moore? Polly

:44:58.:45:03.

is right. One reason Cameron ultimately failed is like all the

:45:04.:45:09.

politicians in the Western world at present who have failed to

:45:10.:45:11.

understand how the world is changing in the light of the effect of the

:45:12.:45:17.

credit crunch, we still haven't had a change politician coming to the

:45:18.:45:23.

top, we haven't had a sat in this generation, we have had a crisis,

:45:24.:45:26.

but we haven't had the response to the crisis, and Mrs May, very able

:45:27.:45:33.

and sensible, she represents that establishment view rather than the

:45:34.:45:39.

change. So I am not saying it can't happen, but it is a very big task,

:45:40.:45:44.

but it has hardly yet been imagined. The analysis of what is wrong with

:45:45.:45:48.

the world, really, and therefore the conference about how to put it

:45:49.:45:52.

right. We have ten seconds. We can all make an analysis of what is

:45:53.:45:57.

wrong with the world and what people want, but the question is is it

:45:58.:46:00.

possible that a generation of British politicians can deliver what

:46:01.:46:07.

people want? I don't think it is. But what if they analyse it right

:46:08.:46:11.

rather than analysing it wrong? We will hit those constraints if

:46:12.:46:16.

Michael is right, and Theresa May can pull us all together if he is

:46:17.:46:18.

wrong. Well, that's enough historic

:46:19.:46:19.

days for this month. No one died, but the biggest beast

:46:20.:46:33.

in the department seems to have gone to the backbenches following his

:46:34.:46:37.

colleague. It does seem to flash in front of your eyes. Good night.

:46:38.:46:41.

TICKING. Hello. It has been another day of

:46:42.:47:01.

sunshine and showers, the showers continuing through this evening and

:47:02.:47:04.

overnight before dying away, and Thursday looks like the driest day

:47:05.:47:07.

of the week for many of us.

:47:08.:47:10.

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