Browse content similar to 14/07/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
Line | From | To | |
---|---|---|---|
A new-look government, a new-look Whitehall, | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
a new message but many familiar faces, the same money troubles | :00:07. | :00:09. | |
Should we expect a decisive, radical, reforming government, | :00:10. | :00:22. | |
or one that's going to get stuck with Brexit? | :00:23. | :00:24. | |
Our priority will be to send out a very strong and clear message that | :00:25. | :00:28. | |
Britain will remain a very attractive place to invest, | :00:29. | :00:30. | |
to create jobs, to do business, and we will take whatever steps | :00:31. | :00:33. | |
we need to take to make sure that remains the case. | :00:34. | :00:35. | |
But at the French embassy tonight, the Foreign Secretary | :00:36. | :00:38. | |
was already experiencing life on the outside. | :00:39. | :00:43. | |
We'll look at what to expect from the new administration. | :00:44. | :00:56. | |
And what did Theresa May say to George Osborne as she let him go? | :00:57. | :00:59. | |
Our political editor has found out and it wasn't pretty. | :01:00. | :01:03. | |
And refugees' experiences told on BBC2. | :01:04. | :01:12. | |
So, has Europe managed to sort out its response? | :01:13. | :01:27. | |
For six years, Theresa May has been quietly sitting in the Cabinet. | :01:28. | :01:33. | |
She's avoided the plotting, mostly, and has presumably been | :01:34. | :01:35. | |
making private judgements about all her colleagues | :01:36. | :01:37. | |
Today, she's had the chance to form a government | :01:38. | :01:43. | |
of her own and her colleagues at last find out what she's been | :01:44. | :01:46. | |
Bad news for some, as they were dropped. | :01:47. | :01:49. | |
Good news for others, with fresh faces given a big | :01:50. | :01:53. | |
It nets out as a hugely different government. | :01:54. | :01:57. | |
We've become used to remarkably few personnel changes | :01:58. | :01:59. | |
over the last six years, so this is a shock to | :02:00. | :02:01. | |
And a bigger change than last year, when the coalition ended and the Lib | :02:02. | :02:07. | |
Here's our political editor Nick Watt. | :02:08. | :02:15. | |
Before we go into what it all means, just this extraordinary story | :02:16. | :02:21. | |
tonight that you have managed to get hold of about Theresa May and George | :02:22. | :02:25. | |
Osborne? Reds Downing Street were pretty clear yesterday that Rita Mae | :02:26. | :02:29. | |
had sacked George Osborne, he didn't resign and I've learned to like they | :02:30. | :02:32. | |
had a very frosty meaning -- meeting at Downing Street yesterday in which | :02:33. | :02:37. | |
trees may make pointed remarks to the outgoing Chancellor. She said he | :02:38. | :02:40. | |
had overpromised and under delivered and took issue with his surplus | :02:41. | :02:44. | |
target and said that has given them a nightmare, he could never deliver | :02:45. | :02:49. | |
it and perhaps it was a bit of a stunt as people said, to catch the | :02:50. | :02:52. | |
Labour Party. I understand to reason may was repeating what she had said | :02:53. | :02:55. | |
in a speech in Birmingham the day before where she had rear -- | :02:56. | :03:01. | |
reiterated her pledge to been the surplus target and she said George | :03:02. | :03:04. | |
Osborne had not done enough to challenge deep economic reform and | :03:05. | :03:07. | |
she was going to do it. The reverberations from the sackings and | :03:08. | :03:10. | |
appointments are rebounding around Westminster still. We thought we | :03:11. | :03:13. | |
would take a look at how the new Prime Minister has gone about | :03:14. | :03:14. | |
forming her government. Not since Harold Macmillan's night | :03:15. | :03:27. | |
of the Long knives in 1962 have we so much ministerial blood flow along | :03:28. | :03:31. | |
Downing Street. Theresa May has reordered an entire government as | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
she responds to the twin instructions from the electorate. | :03:37. | :03:41. | |
Tate Britain out of the EU and change the ways of the governing | :03:42. | :03:47. | |
elite. As you waded through the blood, it was clear that the new | :03:48. | :03:49. | |
Prime Minister had three aims in mind. Number one, deliver Brexit | :03:50. | :03:57. | |
with a Nixon in China approach. Theresa May's appointment of a trio | :03:58. | :04:01. | |
of Brexiteer is to take charge of Britain's exit from the EU fulfils | :04:02. | :04:05. | |
her pledge to ensure the referendum winners run this process. Allies who | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
say that only arch Eurosceptics have a hope of success are drawing | :04:11. | :04:15. | |
parallels with the way in week the hardline Richard Nixon delivered a | :04:16. | :04:17. | |
breakthrough in US relations with China. The Prime Minister might also | :04:18. | :04:23. | |
be trying to create some space should the negotiations turn out to | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
be slightly more talent in. What the Prime Minister has done is said, | :04:29. | :04:32. | |
"OK, you have done the heavy lifting intellectually about this. Deliver | :04:33. | :04:36. | |
it for me in government". I think that because they are trusted, | :04:37. | :04:40. | |
deeply trusted by all Conservatives, both in parliament and in the | :04:41. | :04:44. | |
grassroots, to be true to their beliefs on that, that they are | :04:45. | :04:47. | |
actually in the best place to make the deals and perhaps the slight | :04:48. | :04:52. | |
compromises you have two, to deliver Brexit and deliver it for the | :04:53. | :04:57. | |
benefit of the British people. Number two, rewiring Whitehall. Not | :04:58. | :05:01. | |
since the era of Tony Blair, who loved to abolish and set up | :05:02. | :05:04. | |
government departments, have we seen such people Whitehall. For example, | :05:05. | :05:09. | |
the business, innovation and skills department is renamed, and its | :05:10. | :05:13. | |
headquarters houses some of the new bees. There is pain and delight in | :05:14. | :05:20. | |
equal measure as the very un-Thatcherite industrial strategy | :05:21. | :05:22. | |
makes a return and climate change is nowhere to be seen on the nameplate. | :05:23. | :05:28. | |
Number three, social reform in the spirit of Joe Chamberlain. In her | :05:29. | :05:33. | |
first statement outside number ten, the new Prime Minister delivered an | :05:34. | :05:37. | |
unmistakable message of change by making clear that she would tackle | :05:38. | :05:41. | |
burning injustices. This thinking owes much to her new Joint Chiefs of | :05:42. | :05:46. | |
Staff, Nick Timothy, who is the biographer of the great social | :05:47. | :05:52. | |
reformer, Joseph Chamberlain. Being from Stratford-upon-Avon, close to | :05:53. | :05:57. | |
Birmingham, with Joseph Chamberlain and his sons as well, I think that | :05:58. | :06:03. | |
is something of a role model to us all, the ability to devolve power | :06:04. | :06:14. | |
but also, to champion our cities and be a real champion for those on | :06:15. | :06:18. | |
National Living Wage, those hard-working families that I think | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
she keeps going back to. Theresa May will finalise her new government | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
over the coming days as she turns to the lower ministerial ranks. The | :06:29. | :06:34. | |
blood-letting is not yet over. Nick Watt, there. | :06:35. | :06:37. | |
While we've all been banging on about Europe | :06:38. | :06:39. | |
for the last six months, ordinary life has rumbled | :06:40. | :06:41. | |
on, but quite a number of domestic problems have been | :06:42. | :06:43. | |
The Theresa in-tray is piled high with things to be resolved. | :06:44. | :06:47. | |
Some prime ministers have the option of staying vague and drifting | :06:48. | :06:57. | |
Theresa May won't have that luxury. Her decisions will be made in high | :06:58. | :07:07. | |
definition. Theresa May's permission may well be remembered for good or | :07:08. | :07:09. | |
ill by how well the Brexit negotiations go. But on domestic | :07:10. | :07:14. | |
policy, she's not inheriting a blank piece of paper. | :07:15. | :07:18. | |
There are three important areas I would pick out and keep an eye on | :07:19. | :07:21. | |
Secondly, the roll-out of universal credit. | :07:22. | :07:28. | |
Secondly, the roll-out Thirdly, the NHS. | :07:29. | :07:30. | |
This economist explains how these issues have been | :07:31. | :07:32. | |
-- made more, get it by the effects of the vote on Brexit. The exchange | :07:33. | :07:43. | |
rate has fallen and the cost of importing things is going to be | :07:44. | :07:45. | |
higher. That will push up on inflation. | :07:46. | :07:46. | |
It will leave less money spare for people to spend | :07:47. | :07:49. | |
The second thing that's going to happen is GDP | :07:50. | :07:52. | |
growth is likely to slow and hiring decisions | :07:53. | :07:54. | |
potentially wage growth will be a little slower too. | :07:55. | :07:57. | |
Both of these things are actually quite bad for | :07:58. | :07:59. | |
the public finances because we need people to spend so that we can tax | :08:00. | :08:02. | |
This is a graph showing what markets expected | :08:03. | :08:07. | |
coming years before the Brexit vote, and this is after. | :08:08. | :08:13. | |
You can see more than a few years out that they are | :08:14. | :08:16. | |
look at the very left of the graph. | :08:17. | :08:20. | |
Inflation is now expected to be sharply higher. | :08:21. | :08:24. | |
This expert from a think tank on living standards | :08:25. | :08:27. | |
explains how this might be a problem for Damian Green, the new Work and | :08:28. | :08:30. | |
We've got wages growing at a pretty modest rate | :08:31. | :08:34. | |
We've also got a benefit freeze, which means benefits aren't going | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
anywhere, it's only working-age benefits over the next few years. | :08:40. | :08:41. | |
So relatively modest levels of inflation mean that for both | :08:42. | :08:44. | |
workers and those relying on benefits, in | :08:45. | :08:46. | |
work and out of work, their living standards | :08:47. | :08:48. | |
are likely to start to | :08:49. | :08:54. | |
flat-line again, or even maybe fall over the next few years. | :08:55. | :08:57. | |
One important issue that will affect this is the roll-out of the troubled | :08:58. | :09:00. | |
It was intended by this point to be helping 6 million people. | :09:01. | :09:04. | |
This plan to reform a range of working-age | :09:05. | :09:10. | |
Even before Brexit came along the Government was facing a | :09:11. | :09:17. | |
On the one hand, if it was able to implement | :09:18. | :09:20. | |
meant actually many working-age households would be losing out | :09:21. | :09:24. | |
We are about to start entering the territory | :09:25. | :09:27. | |
of postcode lottery, where | :09:28. | :09:29. | |
identical families in different parts of the country would have | :09:30. | :09:31. | |
different outcomes depending on whether they are on the old system | :09:32. | :09:34. | |
But if it doesn't work, then that is a hit to | :09:35. | :09:38. | |
the Treasury, because by moving from the old system | :09:39. | :09:40. | |
Treasury stands to save somewhere in the region of ?4 billion or so. | :09:41. | :09:44. | |
This analyst from the Nuffield Trust, a | :09:45. | :09:47. | |
health think tank, exclusively reveals to Newsnight her maths | :09:48. | :09:49. | |
suggest trouble ahead for Jeremy Hunt, who | :09:50. | :09:51. | |
NHS hospitals are really under a lot of pressure at the moment. | :09:52. | :09:57. | |
We know they are already missing a lot of their targets | :09:58. | :10:00. | |
And at the same time they have an underlying financial | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
That means it's costing them ?3.5 billion more to | :10:06. | :10:11. | |
treat the patients that they have coming in than they are actually | :10:12. | :10:14. | |
Look at emergency departments, where 95% of | :10:15. | :10:21. | |
attendances should be dealt with in four hours. | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
We met that target for bits of 2014, we flirted with it in | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
2015, but in 2016 we've been miles away. | :10:30. | :10:35. | |
So how big a task is it for the NHS to get back into budget for 2020? | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
First of all, hospitals will need to cut their costs every year by 3%. | :10:40. | :10:45. | |
Over recent years they've only managed to cut them by 2% | :10:46. | :10:49. | |
and the government's own efficiency review has found that 2% really | :10:50. | :10:53. | |
So hospitals are going to have to exceed that for the next three | :10:54. | :10:59. | |
In addition to that we are going to need to see a slowing in the rate | :11:00. | :11:07. | |
In recent years, the NHS does 3% more work a year. | :11:08. | :11:11. | |
We think we are going to need to see that slow down to around 2%. | :11:12. | :11:14. | |
There are schemes that cut NHS demand relatively painlessly, | :11:15. | :11:19. | |
for example, by putting doctors inside care homes. | :11:20. | :11:22. | |
That could mean some people get treated before their minor | :11:23. | :11:25. | |
But there are also other ways of cutting NHS | :11:26. | :11:28. | |
For example, we could just stop keeping up with some | :11:29. | :11:34. | |
All of those things would suppress demand | :11:35. | :11:41. | |
But would an electorate that has just voted, it thinks, for more | :11:42. | :11:48. | |
The problem is that it's the painful stuff that's certain to save money | :11:49. | :11:56. | |
short-term, and the hospital overshoot could reach | :11:57. | :11:58. | |
Brexit is not Theresa May's only problem. | :11:59. | :12:11. | |
A little memo therefore the new Prime Minister. | :12:12. | :12:12. | |
Before we digest all that, Chris is here with one small legacy | :12:13. | :12:16. | |
a letter from the PM's office released on the web. | :12:17. | :12:20. | |
It's all about the severance pay of special advisors. | :12:21. | :12:23. | |
It's a bit different to everything we have been talking about but | :12:24. | :12:29. | |
explain. So there's a process in white or called ministerial | :12:30. | :12:31. | |
direction. When civil servants think they are being asked to do something | :12:32. | :12:36. | |
they shouldn't be doing, for value for money grounds come usually, they | :12:37. | :12:39. | |
say to a minister, "We will do this but you have to put in writing you | :12:40. | :12:43. | |
have asked us to do it". David Cameron has asked the Cabinet Office | :12:44. | :12:47. | |
to pay extra severance pay to his own special advisers because he | :12:48. | :12:50. | |
feels sorry they have lost their jobs in a sudden shock over the last | :12:51. | :12:54. | |
month. So we don't know how this is going to be debated but the cost is | :12:55. | :13:00. | |
going to be, special advisers, who have got around ?750,000 in total... | :13:01. | :13:07. | |
About ten of them. Now they are going to get about ?1 million. It is | :13:08. | :13:12. | |
distributed unevenly, five figure sums for a Sahm, and four figures | :13:13. | :13:15. | |
for others, months of plays the issue. So they get a few months and | :13:16. | :13:19. | |
he wants them to get some extra months because it's been a rush? | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
Exactly and if you are as it servant who has perhaps the these civil | :13:24. | :13:27. | |
service redundancy scheme strewn down all been made redundant and | :13:28. | :13:31. | |
watched the Prime Minister saying, "That's very unfair, what these poor | :13:32. | :13:36. | |
chaps I know are getting", and intervening personally, this might | :13:37. | :13:39. | |
rankle a little. Thank you for joining us. | :13:40. | :13:40. | |
So, that's the old government's last gesture. | :13:41. | :13:42. | |
With me now are Jill Rutter from the Institute for Government, | :13:43. | :13:47. | |
Philippa Stroud, a former Conservative adviser who now sits | :13:48. | :13:49. | |
in the House of Lords, and Phil Collins who writes | :13:50. | :13:52. | |
So much to talk about them if you are not too depressed by listening | :13:53. | :14:01. | |
to Chris' previous peace. On white or, how big a radical reform of | :14:02. | :14:06. | |
white or have we seen? We are just adjusting it now. Two things have | :14:07. | :14:12. | |
been. Theresa May by Brexit. One issue, we said she would have a | :14:13. | :14:15. | |
secretary of state for Brexit and she's created that, seem to have | :14:16. | :14:18. | |
gone for the option of creating a new Brexit ministry. If I'd been | :14:19. | :14:21. | |
Cabinet Secretary, I'm not sure I would have advised that straightaway | :14:22. | :14:25. | |
but she's gone for that. She is beefing up international trade with | :14:26. | :14:28. | |
this new department with Liam Fox but we always had a rather odd thing | :14:29. | :14:31. | |
which was a non-ministerial apartment doing trade which had a | :14:32. | :14:35. | |
minister. That may be a growth of that with some people moving into | :14:36. | :14:38. | |
that. She has done some things she did not have to do. She has created | :14:39. | :14:46. | |
this new business, energy and industrial strategy department and | :14:47. | :14:51. | |
in doing so, abolished the EC, which was created by Gordon Brown for Ed | :14:52. | :14:54. | |
Miliband in 2008 and also moved skills which is one of the footballs | :14:55. | :15:00. | |
of Whitehall back to education and given it universities, too. Does | :15:01. | :15:04. | |
this distract people? Is it now they are going to spend six months | :15:05. | :15:07. | |
thinking about where their desk is rather than getting or can it be | :15:08. | :15:11. | |
done very smoothly? The departments affected will be distracted. It | :15:12. | :15:16. | |
takes some time to get going when you do things. You have got all | :15:17. | :15:19. | |
those bread-and-butter issues like where you are going to base people, | :15:20. | :15:23. | |
what you are going to pay them, things like that to sort out. | :15:24. | :15:27. | |
Generally our advice has been to think very carefully before you do | :15:28. | :15:30. | |
machinery of government changes and generally don't do them. There's | :15:31. | :15:34. | |
usually a better option. David Cameron took that advice, that was | :15:35. | :15:38. | |
one of the great things about his administration. You only want to do | :15:39. | :15:41. | |
it if you think there a long-term benefit. | :15:42. | :15:46. | |
Brexit potentially demands that. Phil Collins, how impressed are you | :15:47. | :15:51. | |
buy the ability of the new team to carry through Theresa May's | :15:52. | :15:56. | |
objectives? Well, on the threshold of Downing | :15:57. | :15:58. | |
Street Theresa May gave what I thought was a really impressive | :15:59. | :16:02. | |
speech, full of huge ambitions for improving the life chances of the | :16:03. | :16:04. | |
least well off, and that's incredibly difficult to do. Let's | :16:05. | :16:09. | |
pretend you weren't having to extricate Great Britain from the | :16:10. | :16:12. | |
European Union at the same time, the ambitions she set out are immense | :16:13. | :16:16. | |
and I worry about the candidates into microwaves forced up 22 people | :16:17. | :16:20. | |
in the Cabinet, slight second and third 11 feel about it, the other | :16:21. | :16:25. | |
thing linked to that is if you take out George Osborne, for good or ill, | :16:26. | :16:29. | |
he did some big things, pension liberalisation, Northern Powerhouse | :16:30. | :16:32. | |
and Living Wage Commission Michael Gove on education and in the early | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
days justice on prisons, they have energy and passion for reform and I | :16:38. | :16:40. | |
wonder if that energy will exist in the existing cabinet. Are you | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
worried about that, Philippa? I think Michael is a huge loss to the | :16:46. | :16:48. | |
government, personally. I would love to have seen him have a place. But | :16:49. | :16:54. | |
actually, I really like what she has done with the Department for | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
Education. Adding in universities, but also skills and apprenticeships, | :16:59. | :17:02. | |
and giving it to someone like Justine Greening, who is deeply | :17:03. | :17:05. | |
committed to social mobility for sub I've spoken to Justine over this one | :17:06. | :17:10. | |
numerous times. Do you think she's going to be strong? She needs to be | :17:11. | :17:15. | |
tough and be nice to the ones she needs to be nice to. She won't beat | :17:16. | :17:20. | |
up people but she is focused. Social mode is what she wants to do. It's | :17:21. | :17:24. | |
what she has actually wanted to do for the last few years. She's come | :17:25. | :17:27. | |
into this department really well thought through, and she has | :17:28. | :17:31. | |
literally, from cradle all the way up through university and onto the | :17:32. | :17:35. | |
skills agenda and the apprenticeship agenda, that is a social reformer's | :17:36. | :17:40. | |
dream package in all honesty. We wanted skills agenda at the DWP to | :17:41. | :17:44. | |
go with employment, but for her to have it there as well is fantastic. | :17:45. | :17:48. | |
All of that is good and I don't doubt the fine intentions, but it's | :17:49. | :17:52. | |
incredible hard to do. It's very hard to do in a time of plenty, | :17:53. | :17:56. | |
during the Blair government it was found difficult to make progress on | :17:57. | :17:59. | |
this and there was plenty of money sloshing around. When you have very | :18:00. | :18:02. | |
little money it's even more difficult. It's going to be very | :18:03. | :18:06. | |
hard, they are hostages to fortune in Theresa May's speech they are | :18:07. | :18:11. | |
huge. And you have a question of the European Union. I think she's been | :18:12. | :18:16. | |
quite clever on that. She said... Can I put you over there? I will put | :18:17. | :18:22. | |
you over there. Do you think a government can do more than one | :18:23. | :18:26. | |
thing at once? This is quite a big thing, leaving the European Union. | :18:27. | :18:29. | |
Can it deliver this whole reform agenda, industrial strategy, | :18:30. | :18:33. | |
quality, corporate governance, all of that and leave the European | :18:34. | :18:38. | |
Union? Or can a government only chew gum or walk, it can't do both at the | :18:39. | :18:45. | |
same time? Governments do lots of things, there is business as usual | :18:46. | :18:49. | |
as well as reform. The key restraint is the political capital the Prime | :18:50. | :18:52. | |
Minister has to deploy. When the question is, how much will she have | :18:53. | :18:56. | |
to deploy sorting out Europe, lots of this will be done ahead of a | :18:57. | :19:01. | |
mid-level, final deals are only done a head of government level. She has | :19:02. | :19:05. | |
somebody to do the heavy lifting. David Davis will do the heavy | :19:06. | :19:08. | |
lifting, whether he does it in the way she wants it done is critical, | :19:09. | :19:18. | |
whether -- that will be critical whether they bash heads together. As | :19:19. | :19:24. | |
she put the people in who she knows shares her agenda so she doesn't | :19:25. | :19:27. | |
have to do so much? I think that is where you see the bandwidth now. Are | :19:28. | :19:32. | |
you worried you won't get it all done? There is just a lot of stuff. | :19:33. | :19:37. | |
One moment, the comment about No 10 and big hitters, that's important. | :19:38. | :19:40. | |
One of the things she has done is cleared out of No 10 of all of its | :19:41. | :19:45. | |
special advisers, hence Chris's comments about special advisers. | :19:46. | :19:48. | |
Always a terrible mistake to do that, all of that memory and people | :19:49. | :19:54. | |
who know what you are doing on. It gives her the chance to bring in | :19:55. | :19:57. | |
people who are aligned with her agenda and genuinely want to do some | :19:58. | :20:02. | |
of the reform. They will take a year to learn. You asked me if I'm | :20:03. | :20:06. | |
worried, that I'm pleased about Justine and about Sajid Javid going | :20:07. | :20:11. | |
on at ACOG, really focused on building houses. That is one of the | :20:12. | :20:17. | |
things we absolutely need I think Liz Truss's appointment at Min of | :20:18. | :20:22. | |
Justice is important too. Michael was focused on the academisation of | :20:23. | :20:25. | |
prisons and you have somebody who has a strong education background. | :20:26. | :20:30. | |
If she chooses to she could come in and improve things. -- DCLG. If you | :20:31. | :20:35. | |
want to do lots of things on the domestic and social agenda isn't the | :20:36. | :20:38. | |
rule that you need money? The one thing she will not have, surely, is | :20:39. | :20:41. | |
oodles of money. They haven't got loads of money but that's not to say | :20:42. | :20:45. | |
you can't do things. Lots of prison reforms don't need lots of money so | :20:46. | :20:49. | |
if Liz Truss picks up the bat on from Michael Gove, which she might, | :20:50. | :20:52. | |
she is a reformer herself, there are things that can be done and there | :20:53. | :20:56. | |
are plans. There is lots on welfare that can save money if you look at | :20:57. | :21:00. | |
it. You cannot necessarily use money as an excuse because you haven't got | :21:01. | :21:04. | |
any. But it worries me. I think leaving the European Union is | :21:05. | :21:07. | |
several things at once, that's not just one thing, that is lots of | :21:08. | :21:11. | |
things. If the Government can do that in the next few years before | :21:12. | :21:14. | |
the election and nothing else it will already have been quite | :21:15. | :21:17. | |
successful. So I'm not sure it can even manage that, let alone these | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
other things. It partly depends on her style of government as well, | :21:23. | :21:25. | |
which we don't know yet. David Cameron was always very good at | :21:26. | :21:28. | |
almost being a chairman and letting his Secretary of State get on. She | :21:29. | :21:34. | |
is a good manager, people say. If she can achieve the chairmanship | :21:35. | :21:39. | |
role and work with her secretaries of state, she has the ability to | :21:40. | :21:44. | |
implement social reform. One of the things she doesn't have so many of | :21:45. | :21:48. | |
his civil servants, some people think that helps things move more | :21:49. | :21:51. | |
smoothly but Brexit will absorb a lot of the civil service's time and | :21:52. | :21:56. | |
effort, just mapping where Europe matters to us. We've been there for | :21:57. | :21:59. | |
40 years, it's a really big exercise. Quite a lot of these other | :22:00. | :22:04. | |
reforms require civil servants to do them. If the brightest and the best | :22:05. | :22:08. | |
are being creamed into the Brexit ministry it's going to reduce the | :22:09. | :22:12. | |
capacity of quite a lot of other places. It will be interesting to | :22:13. | :22:15. | |
see whether she goes slow on the pace of cuts to the civil service. | :22:16. | :22:19. | |
Thank you very much indeed, let's hope she is not watching and getting | :22:20. | :22:21. | |
depressed about the job she has got! Brexit Britain has certainly been | :22:22. | :22:23. | |
enjoying 15 minutes of fame, the world looking upon us | :22:24. | :22:25. | |
with a variety of reactions. Here's a little clip of the news | :22:26. | :22:28. | |
of his Cabinet appointment being given to a US State Department | :22:29. | :22:32. | |
spokesman last night. He is paid to diplomatically | :22:33. | :22:34. | |
suppress any inappropriate reflex. And his replacement | :22:35. | :22:37. | |
as Foreign Secretary has just been For our European colleagues, | :22:38. | :22:39. | |
the British situation raises all sorts of questions - | :22:40. | :22:51. | |
not always very welcome ones. And now they find themselves working | :22:52. | :22:54. | |
with a Foreign Secretary who has, over the years, treated | :22:55. | :22:57. | |
the EU with derision. A little earlier, I spoke | :22:58. | :22:59. | |
to the Lithuanian foreign What does he think of | :23:00. | :23:01. | |
Boris Johnson's past indiscretions, and will they make it difficult | :23:02. | :23:10. | |
to take him or British Frankly it depends how he will | :23:11. | :23:13. | |
present this stuff, or what has efforts to remedy what was | :23:14. | :23:17. | |
done. The German Foreign Minister, | :23:18. | :23:25. | |
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, called some of the things he said in the | :23:26. | :23:31. | |
referendum campaign irresponsible And it is true that Boris Johnson | :23:32. | :23:33. | |
has been a critic of Does that make it harder to work | :23:34. | :23:37. | |
with him, do you think? Many things I disagree | :23:38. | :23:43. | |
with what he said, But this was the campaign | :23:44. | :23:46. | |
in the UK and now So now he has to prove | :23:47. | :23:51. | |
everything that was said by him, by all of those Brexit leaders, | :23:52. | :23:57. | |
this is just his task. There has been one issue | :23:58. | :23:59. | |
which has been the There are many Lithuanians, | :24:00. | :24:04. | |
as you know, living in the UK. And uncertainty over | :24:05. | :24:13. | |
their status for How quickly do you think | :24:14. | :24:17. | |
we can sort that one out? I don't think days or weeks, | :24:18. | :24:22. | |
probably not. But this is a very | :24:23. | :24:24. | |
important part of the It's not only with regard | :24:25. | :24:27. | |
to Lithuanians, or Poles or other EU citizens | :24:28. | :24:30. | |
who live in the UK. But also, let me | :24:31. | :24:32. | |
mention UK citizens who So we have to negotiate | :24:33. | :24:34. | |
decently, and also smoothly, in order to make sure | :24:35. | :24:41. | |
that they should feel more certain. Just on Article 50, I wondered | :24:42. | :24:48. | |
whether you would be happy to talk to the British before | :24:49. | :24:51. | |
Article 50 is invoked. I know the official position is that | :24:52. | :24:53. | |
talks start when we talks before that, do you | :24:54. | :24:56. | |
think? Frankly, we need to know | :24:57. | :24:59. | |
what the UK wants to do. Because, to depart | :25:00. | :25:06. | |
the European Union there could be various options, frankly speaking, | :25:07. | :25:09. | |
and different models. And we need to know | :25:10. | :25:12. | |
what we would like to have as a Single Market, mobility | :25:13. | :25:15. | |
freedoms, other aspects, it could be the Norwegian | :25:16. | :25:24. | |
model, the Swiss model, So, first of all we | :25:25. | :25:26. | |
have to know what we are going to negotiate and then | :25:27. | :25:31. | |
we will see the positions. Obviously Britain leaving | :25:32. | :25:34. | |
is going to leave a big hole We put in 10 billion | :25:35. | :25:43. | |
euros or more into the European budget net | :25:44. | :25:47. | |
of what we take out. I just wonder whether you have | :25:48. | :25:50. | |
started thinking about what is going to fill that hole that that | :25:51. | :25:53. | |
leaves the European Union. This hole will not be | :25:54. | :25:56. | |
filled, definitely. Because the UK is leaving, | :25:57. | :26:06. | |
and this is also a small hole in our hearts, frankly speaking, | :26:07. | :26:09. | |
because we need the UK and we feel And that means that we really have | :26:10. | :26:12. | |
to define the future, given the interests first of all, | :26:13. | :26:21. | |
and I believe, I'm convinced as close as possible ties with EU, | :26:22. | :26:23. | |
which has to do with trade, services So it is too early to say | :26:24. | :26:28. | |
what kind of hole in the budget will be, | :26:29. | :26:34. | |
because it depends I'm hearing your | :26:35. | :26:36. | |
message very clearly. Linas Linkevicius, thank you very | :26:37. | :26:39. | |
much for talking to us. Thanks. | :26:40. | :26:42. | |
Thanks. Before we move on and we are getting | :26:43. | :26:50. | |
news of a serious event in France, it is Bastille day there, there is | :26:51. | :26:55. | |
an incident in Nice and it looks serious, it seems that a truck has | :26:56. | :27:01. | |
gone into a crowd of people. Reuters are quoting the local prefect who | :27:02. | :27:06. | |
says 30 people are dead, social media video shows people running, | :27:07. | :27:11. | |
which you can see, in panic following the incident. A journalist | :27:12. | :27:19. | |
with the local Nice newspaper reported there was lots of blood and | :27:20. | :27:23. | |
lots of injured. We don't know exactly what it is, people talked | :27:24. | :27:26. | |
about it as an attack of some kind, we have social media pictures. Some | :27:27. | :27:33. | |
reports, and again all of this is very early days, some reports talked | :27:34. | :27:44. | |
of shots being fired by police. This is a tragic story coming from France | :27:45. | :27:48. | |
on Bastille Day, a holiday in France. We will try and bring you | :27:49. | :27:53. | |
more on that as we get it. In the meantime let's return to our | :27:54. | :27:55. | |
previous items. One change we will have | :27:56. | :27:57. | |
to acclimatise ourselves to is that we'll be seeing less of George | :27:58. | :28:00. | |
Osborne. Six years in the Treasury, | :28:01. | :28:02. | |
and a turbulent six years at that. We heard earlier about the difficult | :28:03. | :28:11. | |
conversation he had with Theresa May when she sacked him. | :28:12. | :28:15. | |
David Grossman looks back at his tenure. | :28:16. | :28:19. | |
So the hi-vis Chancellor fades, for now at least, | :28:20. | :28:22. | |
from the political scene, hanging up his fluorescent | :28:23. | :28:27. | |
But we can at least see what Mr Osborne has | :28:28. | :28:31. | |
built and compare it to the plans he submitted | :28:32. | :28:33. | |
The primary task that George Osborne set for himself was eliminating | :28:34. | :28:39. | |
Here was the planned reduction from his first budget. | :28:40. | :28:44. | |
But this is what he actually achieved, still a long way to go. | :28:45. | :28:52. | |
Indeed, after the Brexit referendum, both Mr Osborne | :28:53. | :28:54. | |
and the soon-to-be-new Prime Minister abandoned | :28:55. | :28:57. | |
The reason for the failure to get the deficit down as much as he hoped | :28:58. | :29:05. | |
isn't because he tried to implement tax rises, or benefit cuts, | :29:06. | :29:07. | |
or public service cuts and they didn't happen. | :29:08. | :29:09. | |
The measures he announced did happen. | :29:10. | :29:11. | |
It's because the economy didn't grow as strongly as he thought | :29:12. | :29:14. | |
and that meant that tax revenues kept disappointing. | :29:15. | :29:18. | |
But, and it's a big but, Mr Osborne gets credit from many | :29:19. | :29:21. | |
economists for absorbing the political embarrassment | :29:22. | :29:22. | |
of repeatedly missing his targets rather than reducing government | :29:23. | :29:24. | |
spending even further to try to meet them. | :29:25. | :29:31. | |
I think the biggest criticism to me on the macro side is that | :29:32. | :29:35. | |
all the adjustment in the fiscal position was on spending. | :29:36. | :29:37. | |
He slashed spending dramatically and I think that's one | :29:38. | :29:40. | |
of the reasons we see so many unhappy people. | :29:41. | :29:42. | |
Local government spending, for example, has really | :29:43. | :29:43. | |
And that's a very controversial Chancellor. | :29:44. | :29:50. | |
And that's a very controversial judgement. | :29:51. | :29:51. | |
George Osborne's second objective was under the extremely broad | :29:52. | :29:53. | |
For a start, this meant moving the country away from a reliance | :29:54. | :30:02. | |
on the financial sector that left us so exposed after the crash, | :30:03. | :30:05. | |
Obviously one of the big tenets was this march of the makers | :30:06. | :30:10. | |
and to have more rebalancing towards manufacturing. | :30:11. | :30:13. | |
And I think actually the makers would like to see a bit more spring | :30:14. | :30:16. | |
in their step than they have at the moment. | :30:17. | :30:19. | |
I think they still see quite a lot of challenges ahead. | :30:20. | :30:23. | |
But I think where you can see some things the Chancellor did do | :30:24. | :30:26. | |
to help manufacturing was a real focus on research | :30:27. | :30:28. | |
Rebalancing the economy also meant reducing the ratio of household debt | :30:29. | :30:34. | |
But this proved impossible in an era of ultra-low interest rates | :30:35. | :30:40. | |
which discouraged saving and encouraged borrowing. | :30:41. | :30:48. | |
Households are choosing to spend a lot relative to their incomes, | :30:49. | :30:53. | |
so the household saving ratio is at a very low level | :30:54. | :30:55. | |
And the amount of borrowing, how we finance this borrowing, well, | :30:56. | :30:59. | |
the amount of borrowing we do from overseas is at extremely high | :31:00. | :31:02. | |
So we are a country in which the household sector | :31:03. | :31:05. | |
is borrowing a lot of money, the Government is still borrowing | :31:06. | :31:08. | |
a lot, not as much as it did, and that borrowing is being financed | :31:09. | :31:11. | |
The third objective we could measure Mr Osborne against is his ambition | :31:12. | :31:17. | |
to spread growth beyond London and the south-east of England. | :31:18. | :31:19. | |
As a Cheshire MP, the Chancellor championed the so-called | :31:20. | :31:21. | |
This was partly about infrastructure but partly about political | :31:22. | :31:25. | |
I think it has but I think there's a lot more to be done. | :31:26. | :31:33. | |
I think what he did was highlight some of the issues and to start | :31:34. | :31:37. | |
in train some of the devolution of powers and give more power | :31:38. | :31:41. | |
But I think what people would say is we need to see more connections | :31:42. | :31:47. | |
between Sheffield, Manchester, Leeds, some of our northern cities | :31:48. | :31:50. | |
but also in the Midlands, between Nottingham and Leicester. | :31:51. | :31:55. | |
I think focusing on the transport infrastructure between some | :31:56. | :31:57. | |
of the UK's bigger cities undoubtedly needs to be the focus | :31:58. | :31:59. | |
We've got a dual economy, London and the south-east, | :32:00. | :32:05. | |
a few other metropolitan areas, are dominant. | :32:06. | :32:09. | |
Much of the country isn't really doing very well and again, that has | :32:10. | :32:14. | |
In a strange ironical way, maybe Brexit will do that | :32:15. | :32:20. | |
Indeed, like his friend David Cameron, perhaps Mr Osborne's | :32:21. | :32:24. | |
entire time in office will come to be defined | :32:25. | :32:26. | |
If Brexit does result in economic calamity, as he warned, well, | :32:27. | :32:34. | |
Mr Osborne will get blamed for letting it happen. | :32:35. | :32:36. | |
If on the other hand, Brexit is a roaring success, | :32:37. | :32:39. | |
he will get none of the credit, having argued | :32:40. | :32:41. | |
David Grossman die on George Osborne. We can't bring you more on | :32:42. | :32:56. | |
that ghastly episode in Nice. -- David Grossman there. They're ready | :32:57. | :33:02. | |
to be quite a few dead when a lorry went into a Bastille Day festivity | :33:03. | :33:06. | |
in the city of Nice. We will try to bring you more at the end of the | :33:07. | :33:07. | |
programme. You might have seen | :33:08. | :33:09. | |
Exodus on BBC2 this week. Three nights, three one-hour | :33:10. | :33:11. | |
programmes, with real-life testimony of refugees, telling the stories | :33:12. | :33:13. | |
of their journeys into Europe. I survived Isis, I survived | :33:14. | :33:24. | |
beheadings, I survived Assad. I was almost killed | :33:25. | :33:27. | |
for a stupid idea Well, the programmes | :33:28. | :33:44. | |
aroused quite a reaction. They are still on the | :33:45. | :33:48. | |
iPlayer, of course. There have been times when Europe | :33:49. | :33:51. | |
can collectively excuse its messy response to the refugee | :33:52. | :33:58. | |
and migrant crisis by saying were unexpected and unmanageable | :33:59. | :34:05. | |
in the short term. That excuse obviously wears thin | :34:06. | :34:21. | |
as time passes. Joining me now in the studio | :34:22. | :34:22. | |
is former International Development And from Brussels, the Director of | :34:23. | :34:25. | |
Migration Policy Institute Europe, We have not spoken about this for | :34:26. | :34:32. | |
very long because we've been in the middle of a referendum campaign but | :34:33. | :34:35. | |
how have things changed in the last six months, particularly from the | :34:36. | :34:36. | |
journeys that were documented in that series? I think what you saw in | :34:37. | :34:39. | |
the TV programme was fairly harrowing but fluid generally -- | :34:40. | :34:42. | |
Jenny, where people were finding their passage from Turkey, through | :34:43. | :34:45. | |
degrees and then upwards through the Western Balkans into various | :34:46. | :34:49. | |
locations in Europe. The key change that has occurred in the European | :34:50. | :34:51. | |
Union, one of the reasons why the refugee crisis has not been so much | :34:52. | :34:55. | |
in headlines in the last three months is the instigation of a deal | :34:56. | :34:59. | |
with Turkey to try to stem the flow from Turkey degrees and then the | :35:00. | :35:03. | |
closure of the borders across the Western Balkans route. What we see | :35:04. | :35:09. | |
now is a far more sedentary process. Those people who had already made it | :35:10. | :35:12. | |
to Greece but have not been able to move further through across Europe | :35:13. | :35:17. | |
are now kept in sometimes poor reception conditions in Greece | :35:18. | :35:20. | |
itself. A number of people who have arrived from Turkey and managed to | :35:21. | :35:23. | |
make it across, despite the deal over the last three or four months, | :35:24. | :35:31. | |
hiding themselves on the islands and in substantially different | :35:32. | :35:32. | |
conditions than the islands were used to dealing with before March | :35:33. | :35:37. | |
this year. Things have slowed down. And people are sort of stock. Very | :35:38. | :35:42. | |
briefly in terms of the numbers leaving, the places from where most | :35:43. | :35:45. | |
came, has that number fallen dramatically? So the numbers | :35:46. | :35:50. | |
arriving on the Greek islands have fallen dramatically and that is a | :35:51. | :35:53. | |
combination of the message that the borders are closed now to Europe, | :35:54. | :35:56. | |
that you will not move on from Greece but also, the proactive | :35:57. | :36:01. | |
actions of the Turkish coast guard and the Turkish government itself, | :36:02. | :36:05. | |
preventing departures degrees. On that sort of singular benchmark of | :36:06. | :36:10. | |
the EU- Turkey deal, it has been successful in reducing numbers but | :36:11. | :36:13. | |
that does not necessarily reduce the numbers of people who have been | :36:14. | :36:17. | |
displaced, whether from Syria, Iraq or other countries. It does not | :36:18. | :36:21. | |
resolve the underlying problems of a large number of people displaced in | :36:22. | :36:24. | |
the region of Syria. Andrew Mitchell, it is months now since the | :36:25. | :36:27. | |
peak of the migrant and refugee crisis. As Europe improved its | :36:28. | :36:32. | |
performance, quite apart from blocking people out, the conditions | :36:33. | :36:38. | |
in which they are in, has that been satisfactorily resolved? It is a | :36:39. | :36:41. | |
massive failure on almost every count. First, it is a failure to | :36:42. | :36:47. | |
look after the 4.5 - 5 million people displaced within Syria, where | :36:48. | :36:51. | |
we argued for safe havens. That was the right policy and should have | :36:52. | :36:54. | |
been implemented. We have failed from Europe to look after | :36:55. | :36:58. | |
effectively the huge number of people who have gone into Lebanon on | :36:59. | :37:05. | |
and Jordan and indeed, into Turkey, where the camps and accommodation is | :37:06. | :37:08. | |
extremely good. We have failed them and failed to educate their | :37:09. | :37:11. | |
children. We have failed to give them hope because of course, all | :37:12. | :37:14. | |
these migrants and refugees, they don't want to recreate Syria in | :37:15. | :37:19. | |
Europe. They want to go back to the areas from which they have been | :37:20. | :37:22. | |
driven off under gunfire and then moving further afield, when you get | :37:23. | :37:25. | |
to Europe, people who do put themselves into the hands of the | :37:26. | :37:30. | |
modern-day equivalent of the slave trader, in a leaky boat, in the hope | :37:31. | :37:33. | |
of reaching a more prosperous sure, they should be properly looked after | :37:34. | :37:37. | |
when they arrive on the European coastline, properly processed. But | :37:38. | :37:40. | |
the aim of the policy should not be to bring them into Europe. It should | :37:41. | :37:43. | |
be to get them back when you have dealt with the crisis. Justin Pugh | :37:44. | :37:48. | |
Manitou into, you would have thought Europe could muster the money to | :37:49. | :37:52. | |
build decent camps and have them properly fed and reasonably sanitary | :37:53. | :38:00. | |
conditions. Is that what they have in Greece at the moment? Well, it's | :38:01. | :38:02. | |
better but still reliant on doctors going out from Britain, for example. | :38:03. | :38:05. | |
The European Union has not got its act together properly. But you are | :38:06. | :38:11. | |
right in what you say, there should have been European money, UN money, | :38:12. | :38:14. | |
International money to make sure that these people were kept safe, | :38:15. | :38:19. | |
got medicine, got properly fed and sheltered and in none of those three | :38:20. | :38:23. | |
areas which I have sketched out, the areas through which they go, has | :38:24. | :38:28. | |
that happened. Elisabeth, of course, there have been two different | :38:29. | :38:31. | |
approaches, one is helping the ball once they arrived and the other is | :38:32. | :38:35. | |
helping Beadle out there which has been very much the British garden | :38:36. | :38:37. | |
at's approach. They said they would rather not encourage people to come | :38:38. | :38:41. | |
to Europe but help them near the camps in Lebanon on Paul Jordan. How | :38:42. | :38:48. | |
is that working out? -- Lebanon or Jordan. The European picture may not | :38:49. | :38:51. | |
be great but how is that working out? I think the ambition is | :38:52. | :38:55. | |
admirable in terms of thinking about how to do protection in regional | :38:56. | :39:00. | |
origin, in part because some of the most vulnerable people don't have | :39:01. | :39:02. | |
the opportunity to move or undertake, or are capable of | :39:03. | :39:05. | |
undertaking these dangerous journeys. One of the big challenges, | :39:06. | :39:09. | |
however, is whether you are just doing support in the short term, | :39:10. | :39:13. | |
food, shelter, making sure people are staying alive, against trying to | :39:14. | :39:18. | |
create new opportunities for people in the regional origin which is a | :39:19. | :39:22. | |
lot harder. That is exacerbated by the fact that there is a funding | :39:23. | :39:26. | |
shortfall, despite the investments made by the UK Government and other | :39:27. | :39:29. | |
governments, there is a persistent funding shortfall into the multiple | :39:30. | :39:36. | |
billions in nature. That means that when people have become refugees, | :39:37. | :39:39. | |
they tend to be refugees for long periods of time and they don't find | :39:40. | :39:42. | |
themselves by doing opportunities in the region of origin because there | :39:43. | :39:46. | |
is no support beyond perhaps even food and shelter and not even in | :39:47. | :39:50. | |
some cases. So we have to ask the question, if that is the policy, how | :39:51. | :39:55. | |
much money will we have two invest to achieve that? Alongside two other | :39:56. | :39:59. | |
issues... I'm going to have to stop you because we have a breaking story | :40:00. | :40:02. | |
and I have to go to it. Thank you for joining us. The situation in | :40:03. | :40:10. | |
Nice is ongoing. This is what the witness, Colin, just told the BBC | :40:11. | :40:15. | |
News Channel. I'm in the port in Nice. We were basically sitting just | :40:16. | :40:22. | |
in front of the old town in Nice and saw several hundred people running | :40:23. | :40:30. | |
towards us, looking panic stricken. We tried to ask a few of them what | :40:31. | :40:34. | |
the hell was going on, and finally got one who said, "You need to go, | :40:35. | :40:39. | |
the police have told us to run". So we thought, OK, we all move did the | :40:40. | :40:45. | |
same direction as the crowds. -- moved in the same direction. At the | :40:46. | :40:49. | |
base of the hill where the castle is in Nice, the police came running and | :40:50. | :40:57. | |
said, "Run now". It is clearly a very bad situation in Nice. You can | :40:58. | :41:01. | |
get more on the BBC News Channel. That is all we have time for the | :41:02. | :41:05. | |
night. We will bring you more on that story tomorrow, and you can | :41:06. | :41:08. | |
follow developments online as well. Until tomorrow, good night. | :41:09. | :41:19. | |
A lot of dry weather through this weekend and there will be some | :41:20. | :41:26. | |
complications. The complications on Friday will be courtesy of this | :41:27. | :41:27. |