30/08/2016 Newsnight


30/08/2016

With Evan Davis. A key leader of so-called Islamic State is reported killed, and is the era of the unrestrained multinational company coming to a close?


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Mighty beasts bestriding the earth...

:00:07.:00:09.

Hungry, sometimes brutal, without regard for nation or border...

:00:10.:00:13.

But is the era of the unrestrained multinational company

:00:14.:00:18.

Apple is told to pay billions of euros in back tax.

:00:19.:00:25.

A huge bill for one company, but potentially a sign

:00:26.:00:28.

of a backlash against the rules of the world economy.

:00:29.:00:32.

Apple is just one example of companies that flourish because

:00:33.:00:34.

But politicians appear to be tiring of the tax avoidance and trade

:00:35.:00:40.

We'll ask this Nobel Prize winning economist

:00:41.:00:44.

if the old rules should change, and what they should change to?

:00:45.:00:49.

One of IS's most senior commanders is reportedly killed.

:00:50.:00:51.

A man who had been instrumental in plotting attacks in Europe.

:00:52.:00:54.

We'll ask how serious that is for so-called Islamic State.

:00:55.:00:59.

What should the new Prime Minister prioritise as she gets stuck

:01:00.:01:05.

Our panel of political pros will offer their advice.

:01:06.:01:19.

Believe it when you see it actually happen -

:01:20.:01:23.

but yes, Ireland really has been told to collect

:01:24.:01:26.

Money like that makes it worth hiring some lawyers,

:01:27.:01:30.

But the mere fact the EU Commission saw fit to make

:01:31.:01:35.

the determination it did today, is a pretty extraordinary statement.

:01:36.:01:38.

Altogether, it's been a bad few days for those who want more

:01:39.:01:41.

globalisation and more of that benign political environment

:01:42.:01:44.

It's not clear who's to blame for the Apple tax problem -

:01:45.:01:54.

Apple, which paid little tax on the profits from its European

:01:55.:01:57.

sales, or Ireland, which allowed Apple to avoid that tax.

:01:58.:02:00.

It agreed the company could book most of those sales to a barely

:02:01.:02:03.

existent head office that was registered nowhere,

:02:04.:02:05.

But the EU Commission was clear - it's not fair on the rest of us.

:02:06.:02:12.

This decision sends a clear message: Member states cannot give unfair tax

:02:13.:02:18.

No matter if they are European or foreign, large or small,

:02:19.:02:29.

It does send a message, a message that is scary for the big

:02:30.:02:40.

for the big corporates - be wary about taking big gifts,

:02:41.:02:43.

because if you're given too much, it will be taken away.

:02:44.:02:45.

There is a sense that too much has been given away to big

:02:46.:02:48.

The EU Commission says it's simply enforcing a state aid rule that's

:02:49.:02:55.

been around since 1958, but it does look like politics.

:02:56.:03:02.

Politics responding to recent public disquiet, and there's another timely

:03:03.:03:04.

Three years in discussion, a European trade and investment

:03:05.:03:09.

deal with the US called TTIP is in trouble.

:03:10.:03:12.

If not ominously close to the rubbish tip, it

:03:13.:03:14.

appears trapped in the land of never-ending negotiation.

:03:15.:03:20.

TRANSLATION: There will not be an agreement by the end of the year.

:03:21.:03:23.

We should accept it, rather than prolonging

:03:24.:03:31.

discussions that on this basis cannot be concluded.

:03:32.:03:36.

In my opinion the talks with the United States

:03:37.:03:38.

have de facto failed, even though nobody

:03:39.:03:40.

That is because they held 14 negotiation rounds,

:03:41.:03:47.

based on 27 chapters - not one agreement was made

:03:48.:03:50.

If the French and Germans don't want it, it isn't going to happen

:03:51.:03:59.

and their reluctance is down to that sense.

:04:00.:04:01.

Now, back in the 1980s, there was a widespread perception

:04:02.:04:08.

in Britain that the trade unions were too powerful and too selfish.

:04:09.:04:11.

The unions want a guaranteed weekly wage.

:04:12.:04:13.

Over the course of a decade, that power was cut back.

:04:14.:04:19.

So are we on the cusp of a long era in which corporate

:04:20.:04:22.

A quick note on the weirdness of what looks like an anti-global,

:04:23.:04:29.

anti-multinational tilt in sentiment.

:04:30.:04:33.

It is itself a global, multinational phenomenon -

:04:34.:04:37.

one that covers the United States and most of Europe.

:04:38.:04:41.

And there's another thing: The Apple decision by the EU kind

:04:42.:04:44.

of demonstrates that if you want to take

:04:45.:04:46.

on a multination, the typical nation state is too small

:04:47.:04:48.

It was by taking control away from Ireland, that the EU

:04:49.:04:56.

So we're in a kind of muddle over who's fighting

:04:57.:04:59.

One other issue - consumers are not going to want

:05:00.:05:04.

to give up the benefits of the multinational era.

:05:05.:05:06.

Smart products, at affordable prices.

:05:07.:05:09.

We may push back but were not about to let go of the whole thing.

:05:10.:05:18.

Joining me now is the nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz,

:05:19.:05:21.

who you might say foresaw the backlash against globalisation

:05:22.:05:24.

way back, even before the financial crisis when his book,

:05:25.:05:28.

Globalisation And Its Discontents, was published back in 2002.

:05:29.:05:32.

He has another one now on the Euro called the euro and its threat to

:05:33.:05:39.

the future of Europe forced up thank you for coming in. Do you think we

:05:40.:05:45.

are on a kind of come a long cycle against the multinationals? They

:05:46.:05:49.

have had a good couple of decades, maybe it is time? I wouldn't say

:05:50.:05:53.

against them, it's trying to rebalance. The fact is they have

:05:54.:06:00.

been bad actors. They talk about social responsibility. Their first

:06:01.:06:05.

social responsibility is paying the taxes that you make on the profits

:06:06.:06:10.

that are garnered from the activities you carry out in a

:06:11.:06:13.

country. What Apple has done, and it's only one of many examples, it

:06:14.:06:19.

has avoided the taxes. They might say, oh we just obey the law, but

:06:20.:06:26.

they did sweetheart deals and they used their influence to shape the

:06:27.:06:30.

law, so they do have to pay taxes. While the rest of us have to pay

:06:31.:06:34.

taxes. We know when you have a backlash against someone pendulum

:06:35.:06:39.

swings one way and then the other. Do you see any danger that we will

:06:40.:06:45.

throw babies out with bath water here? If -- not in this particular

:06:46.:06:55.

case. It's like, did we swing too far in banking regulation? I don't

:06:56.:07:01.

think so. The general sense in the United States, at least, is we had

:07:02.:07:09.

compromise after the crisis in 2008. It was 350 million Americans who

:07:10.:07:16.

wanted more regulation. Banks said no and we got a compromise halfway

:07:17.:07:21.

between the power of ten versus 350 million. It was roughly balanced. It

:07:22.:07:28.

is very easy, isn't it, to look at the losers from globalisation and

:07:29.:07:34.

thence dismiss the whole thing? And actually not talk, and you're a

:07:35.:07:37.

progressive, liberal guy, talk about the hundreds of millions of huge

:07:38.:07:43.

gain that are not appearing on our talk shows and news programmes,

:07:44.:07:48.

China, and middle income country now, with running water which they

:07:49.:07:53.

didn't have 30 years ago, DVD players, and see their lives

:07:54.:07:59.

transformed through this thing we call globalisation. Apple building

:08:00.:08:02.

these products and selling them to us? They're big benefits. But you

:08:03.:08:09.

noticed they said escaping in one country, one company, 13 billion

:08:10.:08:16.

euros. If you take 13 billion dollars and spent on retraining

:08:17.:08:22.

workers in the north of England or in the United States, you would have

:08:23.:08:26.

had less discontented people. You would have had a more productive

:08:27.:08:33.

economy. Your clip talked about TTIP and we're having a big debate about

:08:34.:08:42.

TPT. The other one. They have done analysis on what is the impact on

:08:43.:08:46.

economic growth. The most optimistic, this comes out of the

:08:47.:08:51.

government itself, is after about 15 or 20 years, 0.1.5% GDP. Other more

:08:52.:08:58.

reliable estimates are negative. This is not about growth, this is

:08:59.:09:03.

about shaping the economy and it's a power grab from the Power

:09:04.:09:08.

corporations, to make sure they're not regulated, that they are not

:09:09.:09:12.

taxed, that they can destroy the environment... Your clip put it very

:09:13.:09:19.

well. Clearly excess power, there has to be a check at some point. You

:09:20.:09:23.

would be against the Pacific partnership, TPT, TTIP, you would

:09:24.:09:31.

stop them all for now? I am not against trade but it's trying to get

:09:32.:09:35.

the right balance. It is very interesting, big Democratic platform

:09:36.:09:41.

that all the presidential candidates in the United States have come out

:09:42.:09:49.

against TPT. It has set principles that are inconsistent with the

:09:50.:09:54.

administration's position on TTIP. So that's why these negotiations...

:09:55.:09:59.

We have to talk about politics, you are American and visiting here. This

:10:00.:10:02.

is a very interesting time. Is there a connection between Donald Trump

:10:03.:10:08.

and what we're talking about today? Very much so. It's a more

:10:09.:10:12.

complicated issue, obviously but it is the connection you saw in the

:10:13.:10:17.

Brexit vote. Discontented people, people who were told there is a new

:10:18.:10:21.

world out there, globalisation is going to bring new benefit. It

:10:22.:10:25.

didn't do that. They the people left behind. The basic idea is, if

:10:26.:10:30.

globalisation had brought the benefits we were promised and if

:10:31.:10:35.

some of that extra growth had been shared, there wouldn't be this kind

:10:36.:10:39.

of discontent. That was one of the main point. You're not a Donald

:10:40.:10:44.

Trump supporter I'm guessing? No. What has gone wrong that we have had

:10:45.:10:48.

a problem in the world economy, a balance that has gone too far one

:10:49.:10:53.

way, the political support hasn't been for your kind of candidates but

:10:54.:10:57.

for those who are completely the opposite of weight you are? It is

:10:58.:11:02.

interesting. In the primary is in the United States it was enormous

:11:03.:11:06.

support for somebody like Bernie Sanders. It was a statement that the

:11:07.:11:13.

traditional centrist party candidates have not delivered on

:11:14.:11:19.

what they promised. It is a message, and I think it's a message Hillary

:11:20.:11:23.

Clinton has got, that you need a different agenda, and that means we

:11:24.:11:28.

have to do a better job of protecting the people who have not

:11:29.:11:34.

been the winners. When you look back at Gordon Brown and Tony Blair, Tony

:11:35.:11:38.

Blair's name on the left is marred. When you look back at him is up

:11:39.:11:43.

Prime Minister, do you think it was a disaster or do you think he was a

:11:44.:11:48.

Prime Minister who did his best kind obtained this beast? I think you

:11:49.:11:54.

need to look at it in historical context. I think it was a mistake in

:11:55.:12:01.

the United States the deregulation of the financial sector... But you

:12:02.:12:04.

have to look at it in historical context. That was the spirit of the

:12:05.:12:08.

time. These are not economists. I was very strongly opposed to the

:12:09.:12:14.

financial deregulation but I was coming at it from economics. These

:12:15.:12:19.

are people who were politicians, they were listening to the voices in

:12:20.:12:25.

the air and the campaign contributors. Does it bother you

:12:26.:12:30.

that the left... Post financial crash, the left's story has been,

:12:31.:12:36.

the centre-left, not the further left, the centre-left has had

:12:37.:12:40.

trouble getting its ducks in a row, hasn't had much of the story? In

:12:41.:12:46.

each country it is a different story. In the United States

:12:47.:12:49.

President Obama was not brave enough, if you want to think of it

:12:50.:12:53.

like that. He was afraid, I think, to take on the financial markets. We

:12:54.:12:57.

had just been through from and he said, let's try to walk on

:12:58.:13:04.

carefully. I think it was a very big mistake. He brought on as his

:13:05.:13:08.

economic advisers the same people who had brought on the deregulation

:13:09.:13:13.

that cause the problem and it was not a surprise that it didn't work,

:13:14.:13:19.

and it's not surprised there is such an dead now. I think those mistakes,

:13:20.:13:24.

in not dealing adequately with the global financial crisis, are part of

:13:25.:13:28.

the anger we are seeing today. Talk a little about Europe. Sceptical of

:13:29.:13:33.

the euro, you think is a disaster, that is one of the messages of your

:13:34.:13:37.

new book. You do say you think Britain might, might get better

:13:38.:13:42.

outside the European Union. You are in a big minority in the economic

:13:43.:13:47.

profession in that. Give us the scenario. The idea here is you are

:13:48.:13:52.

still part of the global community. There is the WTO. It goes back to

:13:53.:14:01.

what I said about TTP and TTIP. Already lots of trade going on. The

:14:02.:14:08.

last bit doesn't get you what you thought and you're paying the price

:14:09.:14:16.

for that. And so... The issue here is what are going to be the terms of

:14:17.:14:22.

the negotiation, the settlement? And if you get a reasonable deal,

:14:23.:14:30.

consistent with what is in your interests, remember Europe also says

:14:31.:14:33.

global integration is a good thing, if you get one consistent with their

:14:34.:14:37.

interests, I think there is no reason why this should be traumatic.

:14:38.:14:43.

The market view right now is there is an act from. Markets have not

:14:44.:14:49.

collapsed as if it was doomsday. More on the Brexit deal later in the

:14:50.:14:50.

programme. Thank you very much. Now, before we move on, let's just

:14:51.:14:56.

get a little more on Apple, the Irish and that 13 billion euro

:14:57.:14:59.

late tax bill. Our business editor

:15:00.:15:01.

Helen Thomas is with me. Where next for Apple? First the

:15:02.:15:15.

lawyers swing into action, both Apple and Ireland have said they

:15:16.:15:20.

planned to challenge the decision in the European courts. Realistically

:15:21.:15:25.

we could be three or five years away from getting an eventual settled

:15:26.:15:30.

outcome. They have got to put the cash aside in the meantime. But the

:15:31.:15:36.

fallout could be interesting, I have spoken to tax advisers and expect to

:15:37.:15:41.

be busy from multinationals with questions wanting to review their

:15:42.:15:45.

tax arrangements. The government has said, this was not of course

:15:46.:15:54.

necessary a question of but these tax rulings allowing Apple to

:15:55.:15:56.

allocate profit in a certain way. The commission has said they will

:15:57.:16:01.

look at Amazon and McDonald's and Luxembourg, their tax arrangements,

:16:02.:16:07.

and it is a similar issue. But those dates back to an original

:16:08.:16:11.

investigation from 2013. Since then the commission has expanded its

:16:12.:16:15.

work, reviewing over 1000 tax rulings. The expectation is that we

:16:16.:16:20.

could see more cases along these lines. The United States professes

:16:21.:16:24.

not to be happy with this particular decision today. No one seems

:16:25.:16:33.

terribly happy. The US Treasury has raised various concerns relating to

:16:34.:16:38.

the EU trampling over national sovereignty, potentially undermining

:16:39.:16:43.

efforts to harmonise tax rules globally. But even in the US there

:16:44.:16:52.

are people that concede that the EU is acting where governments either

:16:53.:16:55.

cannot or will not because they worry about jobs and investment or

:16:56.:17:00.

in the US there has been gridlock on efforts to reform its tax system for

:17:01.:17:05.

years. And the US tax system creates some of these incentives for

:17:06.:17:08.

companies to organise themselves in these weird and wonderful ways.

:17:09.:17:12.

You may well not have heard of him, but he has been one of the most

:17:13.:17:16.

important figures in the so-called Islamic State.

:17:17.:17:18.

And we've been hearing tonight that he has reportedly

:17:19.:17:20.

You might call him the Goebbels of the group -

:17:21.:17:30.

he was sometimes called the spokesman for IS.

:17:31.:17:32.

Propaganda was his field, he was one who was reportedly

:17:33.:17:36.

involved in selecting videos to push.

:17:37.:17:37.

He was also a commander who played a big role in the

:17:38.:17:40.

overseas operations - in Europe in particular.

:17:41.:17:42.

Well, I'm joined by our correspondent, Gabriel Gatehouse

:17:43.:17:44.

and also Shiraz Maher, deputy director of the International

:17:45.:17:46.

Centre for the Study of Radicalisation at King's College

:17:47.:17:48.

Gabriel, tell us a little about who this man is. Abu Mohammad al-Adnani,

:17:49.:18:08.

he is a Syrian, thought to be in his late 30s. 39 by some accounts. He

:18:09.:18:13.

joined Al-Qaeda in Iraq shortly after the US invasion and became a

:18:14.:18:18.

founder member of Isis, he is one of the people who articulated the

:18:19.:18:20.

founding of their so-called caliphate and became their chief

:18:21.:18:27.

spokesman. In September 2014 he made this by now infamous fatwa calling

:18:28.:18:31.

on believers to attack people in the West wherever they might find them.

:18:32.:18:35.

Worth quoting perhaps a little of that, he said if you can kill a

:18:36.:18:42.

disbelieving American or European, especially the spiteful and filthy

:18:43.:18:45.

French, he said, kill them in any manner you can. That call became

:18:46.:18:52.

Paris and Brussels attacks, it has been cited in several British terror

:18:53.:18:57.

plot cases as an inspiration. So in that sense he was the spokesman. As

:18:58.:19:01.

you said he was a propagandist, there are reports that he held

:19:02.:19:04.

monthly meetings where they would go through the grisly videos that I S

:19:05.:19:10.

filmed and then he chose which to disseminate. He was also strategist.

:19:11.:19:15.

And we're hearing fascinating accounts from former Isis members,

:19:16.:19:20.

or European and who have come back, about this department that he

:19:21.:19:26.

headed. In charge of plotting and coordinating attacks in the West.

:19:27.:19:32.

The Bataclan, Brussels. In one sentence, do we know what has

:19:33.:19:37.

happened to him, do we know he is dead? No although it has been

:19:38.:19:41.

announced on the IIS Twitter account. The United States said it

:19:42.:19:45.

carried out an air strike against a senior Isis official north-west of

:19:46.:19:51.

Aleppo, where they say he died. They have not confirmed that it was

:19:52.:19:56.

al-Adnani. They say they're still looking into it. But all kinds of

:19:57.:20:03.

people are active in area. How big a blow is that to Islamic State? I

:20:04.:20:10.

think quite significant. It is going after the number two of the

:20:11.:20:13.

organisation in terms of someone who is very important, he was directing

:20:14.:20:17.

these plots that were hitting Europe. Number two, is that what you

:20:18.:20:27.

think he was? In many respects he even eclipsed by daddy in terms of

:20:28.:20:31.

profile and prominence. But Eddie of course being de facto head of the

:20:32.:20:34.

so-called caliphate. To what extent is Isis and system that carries on

:20:35.:20:42.

operating even when you take out key individuals? Or is it reliant on

:20:43.:20:46.

some charismatic figures who run the show? IIS is dependent on these

:20:47.:20:52.

important leaders who carry charisma and standing, of the most important

:20:53.:20:58.

things about al-Adnani Izzy had pedigree and have been fighting

:20:59.:21:04.

since 2003 with Al-Qaeda in Iraq. He had a long period to become a very

:21:05.:21:10.

skilled fighter and so on. That also gave him credibility amongst

:21:11.:21:13.

comrades. In that sense it is important and we've seen in the past

:21:14.:21:19.

with Al-Qaeda, with the removal of Osama bin Ladin, in a way Al-Qaeda

:21:20.:21:23.

never recovered. I do not expect this to be quite so significant with

:21:24.:21:27.

IES with the loss of al-Adnani but it does have an effect. In Europe

:21:28.:21:32.

one interest will be that this is a man who inspired lots of people to

:21:33.:21:38.

carry out the atrocities in this confidence. To think it will make a

:21:39.:21:46.

difference to that, is that, have Isis been benefiting from people

:21:47.:21:49.

with mental health difficulties in Europe who latched onto them?

:21:50.:21:56.

Someone like al-Adnani clearly did inspire people but in a sense he got

:21:57.:22:01.

the ball rolling, he has inspired people who have never been to Syria

:22:02.:22:06.

and Iraq to carry out attacks in the name of the group. In that sense he

:22:07.:22:10.

has done what he had to do. It will be interesting to see who replaces

:22:11.:22:14.

him and the nature of his successor. But the types of people in essence

:22:15.:22:19.

likely to have been inspired by him will look at these events today and

:22:20.:22:23.

take inspiration from that in and of itself. Thank you.

:22:24.:22:28.

Jeremy Corbyn released his manifesto for digital democracy today..

:22:29.:22:30.

He's proposing a digital bill of rights, and high speed broadband

:22:31.:22:33.

and mobile connectivity for every household.

:22:34.:22:34.

He was mocked for suggesting that there might be some kind

:22:35.:22:37.

of free-to-use on-line hub of learning resources -

:22:38.:22:41.

given that Wikipedia has been doing that rather well for 15 years.

:22:42.:22:44.

But aside from the policies, one critique of Mr Corbyn is not

:22:45.:22:46.

that he is stuck in the analogue age, but that he has been

:22:47.:22:50.

so seduced by digital hype, he thinks you can win elections

:22:51.:22:52.

He talked today of "harnessing the advances of new technology

:22:53.:22:59.

to organise political campaigning like we've never seen before".

:23:00.:23:02.

A 67-year-old MP might seem an unlikely social media star,

:23:03.:23:16.

but Jeremy Corbyn is the centre of a surprisingly fertile

:23:17.:23:20.

online mass movement, and today he set out his vision

:23:21.:23:23.

As part of Labour's plans for a universally accessible

:23:24.:23:30.

national education service, we will create a free to use

:23:31.:23:33.

online hub we are calling an open knowledge library,

:23:34.:23:36.

a digital repository of lessons, lectures and curricula...

:23:37.:23:40.

He's not the most charismatic of speakers but his supporters

:23:41.:23:44.

who gathered online don't really seem to mind.

:23:45.:23:46.

Britain's most important social medium.

:23:47.:23:51.

A poll last year found 55% of women had lately used Facebook,

:23:52.:23:54.

The equivalent figures for Twitter are 16% of all women and 2%

:23:55.:24:03.

Around 800,000 people have shown enough interest in Jeremy Corbyn

:24:04.:24:08.

to get regular Facebook updates from his team.

:24:09.:24:14.

As well as an alternative broadcast tool, it's also been an organising

:24:15.:24:17.

So we've seen lots of people engaging and participating

:24:18.:24:23.

through social media, and it's actually something that's

:24:24.:24:25.

facilitated off-line activity as well, so that's how we've been

:24:26.:24:28.

able to get huge numbers at meetings and rallies.

:24:29.:24:31.

We've mobilised lots of volunteers to join

:24:32.:24:33.

The official campaign is just a small part of the Corbyn

:24:34.:24:38.

Jeremy Corbyn has a massive presence on Facebook with hundreds

:24:39.:24:43.

of thousands of followers, which is run by his campaign,

:24:44.:24:51.

but separately, run just by activists or by individuals,

:24:52.:24:53.

who make images and then share them, all these smaller groups,

:24:54.:24:56.

and essentially an image might take hold on Facebook and within 24 hours

:24:57.:24:59.

be seen by far more people than the official Facebook page,

:25:00.:25:01.

without the official campaign ever organising it.

:25:02.:25:03.

And even if the campaign went away tomorrow, those sorts of images

:25:04.:25:06.

Here's an example, and like lots, it's a bit

:25:07.:25:10.

It compares expenses of an MP who can cycle to Westminster from

:25:11.:25:15.

Team Corbyn has already found itself having

:25:16.:25:24.

to answer for the views and

:25:25.:25:25.

The fact that a lot of the content created in the name of the Corbyn

:25:26.:25:33.

campaign is not actually controlled by them can

:25:34.:25:35.

For example, at the moment the campaign

:25:36.:25:37.

has tried to distance itself from the work of the Canary, a

:25:38.:25:41.

publication that is online and pushes often

:25:42.:25:44.

This expert thinks it might have its roots in Labour's unfocused

:25:45.:25:50.

You see Labour were very effective at whipping up conversations among

:25:51.:25:54.

the politically engaged, a lot of anti-government

:25:55.:25:57.

While that's not effective when you have an electorate of

:25:58.:26:02.

essentially 45 million people, it's incredibly

:26:03.:26:05.

effective when you have a

:26:06.:26:07.

much smaller electorate, if you like the membership

:26:08.:26:09.

of the Labour Party, and affiliated organisations who are

:26:10.:26:11.

going to decide this particular election.

:26:12.:26:13.

You can see that that kind of method of operating, while it

:26:14.:26:26.

doesn't particularly work in electoral politics, with the wider

:26:27.:26:28.

public being incredibly effective in smaller and politically engaged

:26:29.:26:30.

So can Labour turn this big group of keyed up activists into

:26:31.:26:34.

From my experience of the Obama campaigns, an organisation that won

:26:35.:26:40.

a primary and two general elections, you need to both

:26:41.:26:42.

have the grassroots energy, but also the organisation and data

:26:43.:26:45.

and context to make it meaningful in an electoral contest.

:26:46.:26:53.

And so, to be able to create the space for

:26:54.:26:55.

energy is one thing, but to be able to marshal

:26:56.:26:58.

where you can produce an electoral outcome is something else, and it

:26:59.:27:02.

remains to be seen if the scale and capacity of the Corbyn side is going

:27:03.:27:06.

The Corbynasphere utterly dominates Labour's internal elections.

:27:07.:27:10.

So far, though, it had no visible success peeling off swing

:27:11.:27:13.

Theresa May is back at work now, having taken a nice Swiss holiday.

:27:14.:27:21.

Tomorrow is an important one - the cabinet will sit

:27:22.:27:24.

Nick Watt is also back from his holiday.

:27:25.:27:32.

Great to have you back. It feels a bit like things are settling in.

:27:33.:27:40.

What did we learn today? Theresa May is saying no to a second referendum,

:27:41.:27:45.

no Tonelli General election after the Brexit boat but yes to beginning

:27:46.:27:49.

the process early next year of taking the UK out of the EU by

:27:50.:27:54.

triggering Article 50 of the Ms Bond Treaty. But without a vote in

:27:55.:27:58.

parliament and assuming that she wins a legal challenge against that.

:27:59.:28:04.

Had we been paying attention when Theresa May launched a leadership

:28:05.:28:07.

contest in the early summer, we would not have been surprised. She

:28:08.:28:11.

said it would be wrong to add to the uncertainty by holding an election

:28:12.:28:13.

and she said that Brexit means Brexit. As one and I said, she needs

:28:14.:28:19.

to trigger it early next year so she can take in the UK out of the EU by

:28:20.:28:26.

2019 and go into a general election in 2020 and say, you voted to leave

:28:27.:28:31.

and I delivered it, can I have the reward? We learned some things today

:28:32.:28:37.

but if we had paid attention we would have known that. What about

:28:38.:28:41.

tomorrow? The Cabinet awayday at Chequers, beginning with the formal

:28:42.:28:47.

cabinet. And then the officials will gently be shown the door and the

:28:48.:28:50.

real business in the political Cabinet begins. And the three

:28:51.:28:55.

Brexiteers, David Davis, Liam Fox and Boris Johnson will do

:28:56.:28:59.

presentations on how things are going. There has been some signs of

:29:00.:29:03.

tension between those three and Theresa May was not amused by that.

:29:04.:29:08.

And she needs them to get their ducks in a row so there is an agreed

:29:09.:29:13.

UK position by the time that she triggers Article 50 early in the New

:29:14.:29:17.

Year. Ayew any clearer about what that position could be cursed at the

:29:18.:29:22.

grand bargain is that the UK needs to take back control of immigration

:29:23.:29:26.

and if you're doing that then you're going to limit your access to the

:29:27.:29:32.

single market. I spoke to one senior Whitehall source today who said that

:29:33.:29:36.

the key thing is the UK has got to be a rule maker and not a rule

:29:37.:29:40.

taker. And this person said I think that means we will have limited

:29:41.:29:45.

access to the single market and interestingly, perhaps no passports.

:29:46.:29:50.

This is the process allowing us to sell our financial services around

:29:51.:29:54.

the EU and this person is saying the process that we might move towards

:29:55.:29:58.

is equivalent, we as the UK said the rules and regulations and then we

:29:59.:30:03.

say, they are the equivalent of the EU. But who would arbitrate? But

:30:04.:30:09.

Theresa May has been visiting five European capitals and she has been

:30:10.:30:15.

struck about how UK -- EU leaders are worried, and are sounding

:30:16.:30:22.

flexible on free movement of workers and not people. That could be

:30:23.:30:23.

encouraging for her. Well, as the new political

:30:24.:30:26.

term is almost upon us, we've invited along a panel

:30:27.:30:29.

of friendly experts to offer some We've asked each of you to tell us

:30:30.:30:31.

what her priority should be. Here with us: Anne McElvoy

:30:32.:30:38.

from the Economist, Polly Toynbee from the Guardian,

:30:39.:30:42.

and Fraser Nelson - If she has to pick one priority,

:30:43.:30:50.

what should it be at this point? I think a big priority for Theresa May

:30:51.:30:55.

is people outside London, outside the urban centres who may be voted

:30:56.:31:00.

for Brexit but not die-hard Eurosceptics. Just people who have

:31:01.:31:04.

become a bit divorced from what goes on at Westminster, who feel the

:31:05.:31:07.

system doesn't work very well for them. She sees quite small

:31:08.:31:12.

irrational people, a lot of Brexit is blamed on people being

:31:13.:31:16.

dispossessed. She knows a lot of people voted for this and it is a

:31:17.:31:22.

symbol, if you like, if this dislocation. She wants to put this

:31:23.:31:25.

back together and rebuild small sweet conservativism. Particularly

:31:26.:31:31.

outside London but the previous government had a big idea, Northern

:31:32.:31:35.

powerhouse. We've been a bit all over the place? She doesn't like

:31:36.:31:41.

that, it sounds to top down, too many banker friends of George

:31:42.:31:45.

Osborne doing the right things for Manchester. Very nice for Manchester

:31:46.:31:49.

and Leeds, but it left a lot of holes in between thinking, what

:31:50.:31:53.

about us? I think we will see less of that big headlining, the grand

:31:54.:31:59.

ideas, and more as a now reached a lots of places who can feel they

:32:00.:32:02.

have a stake. How she will deliver that will be difficult and

:32:03.:32:06.

interesting. That is one. What do you think a priority should be? She

:32:07.:32:10.

has to explain who she is and what her agenda is. People have known as

:32:11.:32:15.

the Home Secretary for ages but she's not one who would tell you

:32:16.:32:18.

about her vision of politics and how it differs from David Cameron's and

:32:19.:32:21.

what direction she would take the country in. It wasn't long ago we

:32:22.:32:26.

were watching television debates of three leaders, which seems

:32:27.:32:30.

ridiculous we have people who are entirely different. She hasn't had a

:32:31.:32:33.

leadership contest to explain this. Right now she should be going up and

:32:34.:32:37.

down the country, trying to explain what she intends to do. She has been

:32:38.:32:41.

very quiet, partly because she has been on holiday, but she hasn't been

:32:42.:32:46.

putting herself about? Even her own Cabinet don't know what her agenda

:32:47.:32:50.

is and some don't know why they were appointed. She needs to get her

:32:51.:32:54.

agenda across to them first and then to the rest of the country. There is

:32:55.:33:01.

no such thing as Mayism right now. She needs to find out, tell her

:33:02.:33:06.

colleagues and then the rest of us. Polly? The big discussion starts

:33:07.:33:09.

tomorrow, the honeymoon is over and she is confronted with a Cabinet

:33:10.:33:15.

that is riven over the big issue of Brexit. Even the three Brexiteers

:33:16.:33:23.

don't really agree. She said Brexit means Brexit, that is meaningless,

:33:24.:33:28.

nobody knows what it means. A delightfully helpful get out clause.

:33:29.:33:32.

She has to say what she means by it. In my view that should be supporting

:33:33.:33:35.

Philip Hammond and saying we have to stay in the single market. She has

:33:36.:33:39.

to set the parameters and not allow them to all run away with a great

:33:40.:33:44.

squabble amongst themselves. She has to establish her authority and

:33:45.:33:47.

sakes, this is what I mean by Brexit. Interested to hear your

:33:48.:33:51.

views, we will have as many as we can accommodate, but she has to say

:33:52.:33:55.

what Brexit is. It is a nightmare. I don't think any Prime Minister in

:33:56.:33:59.

living memory has stepped into such an appalling situation. Rishi has

:34:00.:34:07.

more had Brexit is in her party. -- she has more. It is not easy. She

:34:08.:34:13.

does, but she has a huge majority in the House of Commons who are

:34:14.:34:21.

Remainers and it will come back to the House of Commons. The

:34:22.:34:24.

communities act has to be repealed, every element of this will end up

:34:25.:34:27.

being discussed in parliament. It may drive the rest of the country to

:34:28.:34:32.

desperation with its complexities, but it's important. What do you say?

:34:33.:34:42.

She is also a Remainer, but a quiet one. Fraser was interesting saying

:34:43.:34:46.

there's no such thing as Mayism, but apart from that she has a blank

:34:47.:34:51.

sheet on which to write. She has been very good in not boxing herself

:34:52.:34:56.

in, in her position as Home Secretary. And even fair on the Bill

:34:57.:35:00.

of Rights and things, she created some space for herself. My worry is,

:35:01.:35:05.

does she know, does she have the team, does she have the planning

:35:06.:35:08.

order quickly to put into that space? I think she has been very

:35:09.:35:12.

clever at getting where she got to. She has come through as apes

:35:13.:35:16.

Remainer in charge of a Brexit cabinet. Polly says it is

:35:17.:35:19.

unmanageable but she is chairing these committees. She knows how to

:35:20.:35:23.

run the organisational chart of government. Fraser, if she was so

:35:24.:35:29.

minded, can she basically say we are going to stay in the single market

:35:30.:35:33.

and have a minimal change on free movement best or does she have to

:35:34.:35:39.

say, free movement is ended? I think she has to. The way the referendum

:35:40.:35:43.

campaign was fought, there was an unwritten understanding that freedom

:35:44.:35:47.

of movement was a problem. The idea you can control the ever rising EU

:35:48.:35:51.

migration turned out to be one of the central issues of the referendum

:35:52.:35:55.

campaign. Technically she could do a Norway. When she says Brexit means

:35:56.:36:01.

Brexit she means we're not going to do a Norway, it does actually mean

:36:02.:36:09.

coming out of it. We are drifting towards probably no passport in

:36:10.:36:14.

front biggest export industry? Absolutely. I think it was fairly

:36:15.:36:19.

widely discussed in the campaign. Something Phil Hammond is concerned

:36:20.:36:25.

about. Absolutely. She has other huge problems on her plate, the NHS

:36:26.:36:29.

is on its knees. People voted Brexit and they were promised, ?350 million

:36:30.:36:36.

that the NHS, social care is in a state of absolute collapse. Where is

:36:37.:36:39.

the money going to come from? We don't know what her economic

:36:40.:36:43.

policies are. Is she willing to borrow or let the deficit slip?

:36:44.:36:47.

Would you call an election if you were her not right now. But if she's

:36:48.:36:55.

going to be so much different from David Cameron, and it looks as if

:36:56.:36:59.

she is so far, then I think she has to. If her agenda is significantly

:37:00.:37:03.

different to the one the country voted for last year, then she ought

:37:04.:37:08.

to. Spring next year? Spring or summer next year. Hopefully Labour

:37:09.:37:12.

will reckon resemble an opposition by then. Is it the best thing to say

:37:13.:37:19.

you're not going to do it until you actually do it? I don't think why

:37:20.:37:23.

she needs to. I think she is in such a commanding position, the Labour is

:37:24.:37:27.

in a state of shambolic collapse. I don't see why she doesn't simply

:37:28.:37:31.

plan her course, do what she wants to do. She's pretty much mistress of

:37:32.:37:36.

all she surveys. She will only do when she has a deal, a reliable

:37:37.:37:43.

deal... Do you think we need to be clear about Brexit before the

:37:44.:37:48.

election? Yes, otherwise it becomes referendum two, the horror story

:37:49.:37:52.

continues. What is in it for her? She is not under massive pressure

:37:53.:37:56.

from the Labour Party for the foreseeable future. I think she can

:37:57.:38:00.

largely control the terms. It may be 2020 is a long way away, but she

:38:01.:38:05.

does know she has got control, because nobody else, as it turned

:38:06.:38:08.

out, in her party, could do it better. We will leave it there.

:38:09.:38:11.

Thank you all very much. That's about it tonight,

:38:12.:38:14.

but before we go a little tribute to one of America's most loved comic

:38:15.:38:17.

actors Gene Wilder Millions of children grew up

:38:18.:38:19.

with his classic "Willy Wonka He also provided the magic

:38:20.:38:23.

for the box office juggernauts Bonnie and Clyde, Stir Crazy

:38:24.:38:26.

and The Producers, which won him In his later years he found most

:38:27.:38:29.

comfort in his writing but we'll leave you with this

:38:30.:38:33.

family favourite. # Anything you want to,

:38:34.:38:34.

do it Good evening, a stunning day across

:38:35.:40:02.

most of the UK today. Tomorrow, a change coming our way. This weather

:40:03.:40:05.

front will be crossing the country bringing a spell of cloud and some

:40:06.:40:10.

rain. Not a lot of rain but at times you might need an umbrella. This is

:40:11.:40:13.

what it looks like in the afternoon across Northern Ireland. Most of the

:40:14.:40:17.

day will be quite bright with a few showers, the showers will also get

:40:18.:40:21.

into Scotland, through the lowlands

:40:22.:40:22.

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