Browse content similar to 30/08/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Mighty beasts bestriding the earth... | :00:07. | :00:09. | |
Hungry, sometimes brutal, without regard for nation or border... | :00:10. | :00:13. | |
But is the era of the unrestrained multinational company | :00:14. | :00:18. | |
Apple is told to pay billions of euros in back tax. | :00:19. | :00:25. | |
A huge bill for one company, but potentially a sign | :00:26. | :00:28. | |
of a backlash against the rules of the world economy. | :00:29. | :00:32. | |
Apple is just one example of companies that flourish because | :00:33. | :00:34. | |
But politicians appear to be tiring of the tax avoidance and trade | :00:35. | :00:40. | |
We'll ask this Nobel Prize winning economist | :00:41. | :00:44. | |
if the old rules should change, and what they should change to? | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
One of IS's most senior commanders is reportedly killed. | :00:50. | :00:51. | |
A man who had been instrumental in plotting attacks in Europe. | :00:52. | :00:54. | |
We'll ask how serious that is for so-called Islamic State. | :00:55. | :00:59. | |
What should the new Prime Minister prioritise as she gets stuck | :01:00. | :01:05. | |
Our panel of political pros will offer their advice. | :01:06. | :01:19. | |
Believe it when you see it actually happen - | :01:20. | :01:23. | |
but yes, Ireland really has been told to collect | :01:24. | :01:26. | |
Money like that makes it worth hiring some lawyers, | :01:27. | :01:30. | |
But the mere fact the EU Commission saw fit to make | :01:31. | :01:35. | |
the determination it did today, is a pretty extraordinary statement. | :01:36. | :01:38. | |
Altogether, it's been a bad few days for those who want more | :01:39. | :01:41. | |
globalisation and more of that benign political environment | :01:42. | :01:44. | |
It's not clear who's to blame for the Apple tax problem - | :01:45. | :01:54. | |
Apple, which paid little tax on the profits from its European | :01:55. | :01:57. | |
sales, or Ireland, which allowed Apple to avoid that tax. | :01:58. | :02:00. | |
It agreed the company could book most of those sales to a barely | :02:01. | :02:03. | |
existent head office that was registered nowhere, | :02:04. | :02:05. | |
But the EU Commission was clear - it's not fair on the rest of us. | :02:06. | :02:12. | |
This decision sends a clear message: Member states cannot give unfair tax | :02:13. | :02:18. | |
No matter if they are European or foreign, large or small, | :02:19. | :02:29. | |
It does send a message, a message that is scary for the big | :02:30. | :02:40. | |
for the big corporates - be wary about taking big gifts, | :02:41. | :02:43. | |
because if you're given too much, it will be taken away. | :02:44. | :02:45. | |
There is a sense that too much has been given away to big | :02:46. | :02:48. | |
The EU Commission says it's simply enforcing a state aid rule that's | :02:49. | :02:55. | |
been around since 1958, but it does look like politics. | :02:56. | :03:02. | |
Politics responding to recent public disquiet, and there's another timely | :03:03. | :03:04. | |
Three years in discussion, a European trade and investment | :03:05. | :03:09. | |
deal with the US called TTIP is in trouble. | :03:10. | :03:12. | |
If not ominously close to the rubbish tip, it | :03:13. | :03:14. | |
appears trapped in the land of never-ending negotiation. | :03:15. | :03:20. | |
TRANSLATION: There will not be an agreement by the end of the year. | :03:21. | :03:23. | |
We should accept it, rather than prolonging | :03:24. | :03:31. | |
discussions that on this basis cannot be concluded. | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
In my opinion the talks with the United States | :03:37. | :03:38. | |
have de facto failed, even though nobody | :03:39. | :03:40. | |
That is because they held 14 negotiation rounds, | :03:41. | :03:47. | |
based on 27 chapters - not one agreement was made | :03:48. | :03:50. | |
If the French and Germans don't want it, it isn't going to happen | :03:51. | :03:59. | |
and their reluctance is down to that sense. | :04:00. | :04:01. | |
Now, back in the 1980s, there was a widespread perception | :04:02. | :04:08. | |
in Britain that the trade unions were too powerful and too selfish. | :04:09. | :04:11. | |
The unions want a guaranteed weekly wage. | :04:12. | :04:13. | |
Over the course of a decade, that power was cut back. | :04:14. | :04:19. | |
So are we on the cusp of a long era in which corporate | :04:20. | :04:22. | |
A quick note on the weirdness of what looks like an anti-global, | :04:23. | :04:29. | |
anti-multinational tilt in sentiment. | :04:30. | :04:33. | |
It is itself a global, multinational phenomenon - | :04:34. | :04:37. | |
one that covers the United States and most of Europe. | :04:38. | :04:41. | |
And there's another thing: The Apple decision by the EU kind | :04:42. | :04:44. | |
of demonstrates that if you want to take | :04:45. | :04:46. | |
on a multination, the typical nation state is too small | :04:47. | :04:48. | |
It was by taking control away from Ireland, that the EU | :04:49. | :04:56. | |
So we're in a kind of muddle over who's fighting | :04:57. | :04:59. | |
One other issue - consumers are not going to want | :05:00. | :05:04. | |
to give up the benefits of the multinational era. | :05:05. | :05:06. | |
Smart products, at affordable prices. | :05:07. | :05:09. | |
We may push back but were not about to let go of the whole thing. | :05:10. | :05:18. | |
Joining me now is the nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, | :05:19. | :05:21. | |
who you might say foresaw the backlash against globalisation | :05:22. | :05:24. | |
way back, even before the financial crisis when his book, | :05:25. | :05:28. | |
Globalisation And Its Discontents, was published back in 2002. | :05:29. | :05:32. | |
He has another one now on the Euro called the euro and its threat to | :05:33. | :05:39. | |
the future of Europe forced up thank you for coming in. Do you think we | :05:40. | :05:45. | |
are on a kind of come a long cycle against the multinationals? They | :05:46. | :05:49. | |
have had a good couple of decades, maybe it is time? I wouldn't say | :05:50. | :05:53. | |
against them, it's trying to rebalance. The fact is they have | :05:54. | :06:00. | |
been bad actors. They talk about social responsibility. Their first | :06:01. | :06:05. | |
social responsibility is paying the taxes that you make on the profits | :06:06. | :06:10. | |
that are garnered from the activities you carry out in a | :06:11. | :06:13. | |
country. What Apple has done, and it's only one of many examples, it | :06:14. | :06:19. | |
has avoided the taxes. They might say, oh we just obey the law, but | :06:20. | :06:26. | |
they did sweetheart deals and they used their influence to shape the | :06:27. | :06:30. | |
law, so they do have to pay taxes. While the rest of us have to pay | :06:31. | :06:34. | |
taxes. We know when you have a backlash against someone pendulum | :06:35. | :06:39. | |
swings one way and then the other. Do you see any danger that we will | :06:40. | :06:45. | |
throw babies out with bath water here? If -- not in this particular | :06:46. | :06:55. | |
case. It's like, did we swing too far in banking regulation? I don't | :06:56. | :07:01. | |
think so. The general sense in the United States, at least, is we had | :07:02. | :07:09. | |
compromise after the crisis in 2008. It was 350 million Americans who | :07:10. | :07:16. | |
wanted more regulation. Banks said no and we got a compromise halfway | :07:17. | :07:21. | |
between the power of ten versus 350 million. It was roughly balanced. It | :07:22. | :07:28. | |
is very easy, isn't it, to look at the losers from globalisation and | :07:29. | :07:34. | |
thence dismiss the whole thing? And actually not talk, and you're a | :07:35. | :07:37. | |
progressive, liberal guy, talk about the hundreds of millions of huge | :07:38. | :07:43. | |
gain that are not appearing on our talk shows and news programmes, | :07:44. | :07:48. | |
China, and middle income country now, with running water which they | :07:49. | :07:53. | |
didn't have 30 years ago, DVD players, and see their lives | :07:54. | :07:59. | |
transformed through this thing we call globalisation. Apple building | :08:00. | :08:02. | |
these products and selling them to us? They're big benefits. But you | :08:03. | :08:09. | |
noticed they said escaping in one country, one company, 13 billion | :08:10. | :08:16. | |
euros. If you take 13 billion dollars and spent on retraining | :08:17. | :08:22. | |
workers in the north of England or in the United States, you would have | :08:23. | :08:26. | |
had less discontented people. You would have had a more productive | :08:27. | :08:33. | |
economy. Your clip talked about TTIP and we're having a big debate about | :08:34. | :08:42. | |
TPT. The other one. They have done analysis on what is the impact on | :08:43. | :08:46. | |
economic growth. The most optimistic, this comes out of the | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
government itself, is after about 15 or 20 years, 0.1.5% GDP. Other more | :08:52. | :08:58. | |
reliable estimates are negative. This is not about growth, this is | :08:59. | :09:03. | |
about shaping the economy and it's a power grab from the Power | :09:04. | :09:08. | |
corporations, to make sure they're not regulated, that they are not | :09:09. | :09:12. | |
taxed, that they can destroy the environment... Your clip put it very | :09:13. | :09:19. | |
well. Clearly excess power, there has to be a check at some point. You | :09:20. | :09:23. | |
would be against the Pacific partnership, TPT, TTIP, you would | :09:24. | :09:31. | |
stop them all for now? I am not against trade but it's trying to get | :09:32. | :09:35. | |
the right balance. It is very interesting, big Democratic platform | :09:36. | :09:41. | |
that all the presidential candidates in the United States have come out | :09:42. | :09:49. | |
against TPT. It has set principles that are inconsistent with the | :09:50. | :09:54. | |
administration's position on TTIP. So that's why these negotiations... | :09:55. | :09:59. | |
We have to talk about politics, you are American and visiting here. This | :10:00. | :10:02. | |
is a very interesting time. Is there a connection between Donald Trump | :10:03. | :10:08. | |
and what we're talking about today? Very much so. It's a more | :10:09. | :10:12. | |
complicated issue, obviously but it is the connection you saw in the | :10:13. | :10:17. | |
Brexit vote. Discontented people, people who were told there is a new | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
world out there, globalisation is going to bring new benefit. It | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
didn't do that. They the people left behind. The basic idea is, if | :10:26. | :10:30. | |
globalisation had brought the benefits we were promised and if | :10:31. | :10:35. | |
some of that extra growth had been shared, there wouldn't be this kind | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
of discontent. That was one of the main point. You're not a Donald | :10:40. | :10:44. | |
Trump supporter I'm guessing? No. What has gone wrong that we have had | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
a problem in the world economy, a balance that has gone too far one | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
way, the political support hasn't been for your kind of candidates but | :10:54. | :10:57. | |
for those who are completely the opposite of weight you are? It is | :10:58. | :11:02. | |
interesting. In the primary is in the United States it was enormous | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
support for somebody like Bernie Sanders. It was a statement that the | :11:07. | :11:13. | |
traditional centrist party candidates have not delivered on | :11:14. | :11:19. | |
what they promised. It is a message, and I think it's a message Hillary | :11:20. | :11:23. | |
Clinton has got, that you need a different agenda, and that means we | :11:24. | :11:28. | |
have to do a better job of protecting the people who have not | :11:29. | :11:34. | |
been the winners. When you look back at Gordon Brown and Tony Blair, Tony | :11:35. | :11:38. | |
Blair's name on the left is marred. When you look back at him is up | :11:39. | :11:43. | |
Prime Minister, do you think it was a disaster or do you think he was a | :11:44. | :11:48. | |
Prime Minister who did his best kind obtained this beast? I think you | :11:49. | :11:54. | |
need to look at it in historical context. I think it was a mistake in | :11:55. | :12:01. | |
the United States the deregulation of the financial sector... But you | :12:02. | :12:04. | |
have to look at it in historical context. That was the spirit of the | :12:05. | :12:08. | |
time. These are not economists. I was very strongly opposed to the | :12:09. | :12:14. | |
financial deregulation but I was coming at it from economics. These | :12:15. | :12:19. | |
are people who were politicians, they were listening to the voices in | :12:20. | :12:25. | |
the air and the campaign contributors. Does it bother you | :12:26. | :12:30. | |
that the left... Post financial crash, the left's story has been, | :12:31. | :12:36. | |
the centre-left, not the further left, the centre-left has had | :12:37. | :12:40. | |
trouble getting its ducks in a row, hasn't had much of the story? In | :12:41. | :12:46. | |
each country it is a different story. In the United States | :12:47. | :12:49. | |
President Obama was not brave enough, if you want to think of it | :12:50. | :12:53. | |
like that. He was afraid, I think, to take on the financial markets. We | :12:54. | :12:57. | |
had just been through from and he said, let's try to walk on | :12:58. | :13:04. | |
carefully. I think it was a very big mistake. He brought on as his | :13:05. | :13:08. | |
economic advisers the same people who had brought on the deregulation | :13:09. | :13:13. | |
that cause the problem and it was not a surprise that it didn't work, | :13:14. | :13:19. | |
and it's not surprised there is such an dead now. I think those mistakes, | :13:20. | :13:24. | |
in not dealing adequately with the global financial crisis, are part of | :13:25. | :13:28. | |
the anger we are seeing today. Talk a little about Europe. Sceptical of | :13:29. | :13:33. | |
the euro, you think is a disaster, that is one of the messages of your | :13:34. | :13:37. | |
new book. You do say you think Britain might, might get better | :13:38. | :13:42. | |
outside the European Union. You are in a big minority in the economic | :13:43. | :13:47. | |
profession in that. Give us the scenario. The idea here is you are | :13:48. | :13:52. | |
still part of the global community. There is the WTO. It goes back to | :13:53. | :14:01. | |
what I said about TTP and TTIP. Already lots of trade going on. The | :14:02. | :14:08. | |
last bit doesn't get you what you thought and you're paying the price | :14:09. | :14:16. | |
for that. And so... The issue here is what are going to be the terms of | :14:17. | :14:22. | |
the negotiation, the settlement? And if you get a reasonable deal, | :14:23. | :14:30. | |
consistent with what is in your interests, remember Europe also says | :14:31. | :14:33. | |
global integration is a good thing, if you get one consistent with their | :14:34. | :14:37. | |
interests, I think there is no reason why this should be traumatic. | :14:38. | :14:43. | |
The market view right now is there is an act from. Markets have not | :14:44. | :14:49. | |
collapsed as if it was doomsday. More on the Brexit deal later in the | :14:50. | :14:50. | |
programme. Thank you very much. Now, before we move on, let's just | :14:51. | :14:56. | |
get a little more on Apple, the Irish and that 13 billion euro | :14:57. | :14:59. | |
late tax bill. Our business editor | :15:00. | :15:01. | |
Helen Thomas is with me. Where next for Apple? First the | :15:02. | :15:15. | |
lawyers swing into action, both Apple and Ireland have said they | :15:16. | :15:20. | |
planned to challenge the decision in the European courts. Realistically | :15:21. | :15:25. | |
we could be three or five years away from getting an eventual settled | :15:26. | :15:30. | |
outcome. They have got to put the cash aside in the meantime. But the | :15:31. | :15:36. | |
fallout could be interesting, I have spoken to tax advisers and expect to | :15:37. | :15:41. | |
be busy from multinationals with questions wanting to review their | :15:42. | :15:45. | |
tax arrangements. The government has said, this was not of course | :15:46. | :15:54. | |
necessary a question of but these tax rulings allowing Apple to | :15:55. | :15:56. | |
allocate profit in a certain way. The commission has said they will | :15:57. | :16:01. | |
look at Amazon and McDonald's and Luxembourg, their tax arrangements, | :16:02. | :16:07. | |
and it is a similar issue. But those dates back to an original | :16:08. | :16:11. | |
investigation from 2013. Since then the commission has expanded its | :16:12. | :16:15. | |
work, reviewing over 1000 tax rulings. The expectation is that we | :16:16. | :16:20. | |
could see more cases along these lines. The United States professes | :16:21. | :16:24. | |
not to be happy with this particular decision today. No one seems | :16:25. | :16:33. | |
terribly happy. The US Treasury has raised various concerns relating to | :16:34. | :16:38. | |
the EU trampling over national sovereignty, potentially undermining | :16:39. | :16:43. | |
efforts to harmonise tax rules globally. But even in the US there | :16:44. | :16:52. | |
are people that concede that the EU is acting where governments either | :16:53. | :16:55. | |
cannot or will not because they worry about jobs and investment or | :16:56. | :17:00. | |
in the US there has been gridlock on efforts to reform its tax system for | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
years. And the US tax system creates some of these incentives for | :17:06. | :17:08. | |
companies to organise themselves in these weird and wonderful ways. | :17:09. | :17:12. | |
You may well not have heard of him, but he has been one of the most | :17:13. | :17:16. | |
important figures in the so-called Islamic State. | :17:17. | :17:18. | |
And we've been hearing tonight that he has reportedly | :17:19. | :17:20. | |
You might call him the Goebbels of the group - | :17:21. | :17:30. | |
he was sometimes called the spokesman for IS. | :17:31. | :17:32. | |
Propaganda was his field, he was one who was reportedly | :17:33. | :17:36. | |
involved in selecting videos to push. | :17:37. | :17:37. | |
He was also a commander who played a big role in the | :17:38. | :17:40. | |
overseas operations - in Europe in particular. | :17:41. | :17:42. | |
Well, I'm joined by our correspondent, Gabriel Gatehouse | :17:43. | :17:44. | |
and also Shiraz Maher, deputy director of the International | :17:45. | :17:46. | |
Centre for the Study of Radicalisation at King's College | :17:47. | :17:48. | |
Gabriel, tell us a little about who this man is. Abu Mohammad al-Adnani, | :17:49. | :18:08. | |
he is a Syrian, thought to be in his late 30s. 39 by some accounts. He | :18:09. | :18:13. | |
joined Al-Qaeda in Iraq shortly after the US invasion and became a | :18:14. | :18:18. | |
founder member of Isis, he is one of the people who articulated the | :18:19. | :18:20. | |
founding of their so-called caliphate and became their chief | :18:21. | :18:27. | |
spokesman. In September 2014 he made this by now infamous fatwa calling | :18:28. | :18:31. | |
on believers to attack people in the West wherever they might find them. | :18:32. | :18:35. | |
Worth quoting perhaps a little of that, he said if you can kill a | :18:36. | :18:42. | |
disbelieving American or European, especially the spiteful and filthy | :18:43. | :18:45. | |
French, he said, kill them in any manner you can. That call became | :18:46. | :18:52. | |
Paris and Brussels attacks, it has been cited in several British terror | :18:53. | :18:57. | |
plot cases as an inspiration. So in that sense he was the spokesman. As | :18:58. | :19:01. | |
you said he was a propagandist, there are reports that he held | :19:02. | :19:04. | |
monthly meetings where they would go through the grisly videos that I S | :19:05. | :19:10. | |
filmed and then he chose which to disseminate. He was also strategist. | :19:11. | :19:15. | |
And we're hearing fascinating accounts from former Isis members, | :19:16. | :19:20. | |
or European and who have come back, about this department that he | :19:21. | :19:26. | |
headed. In charge of plotting and coordinating attacks in the West. | :19:27. | :19:32. | |
The Bataclan, Brussels. In one sentence, do we know what has | :19:33. | :19:37. | |
happened to him, do we know he is dead? No although it has been | :19:38. | :19:41. | |
announced on the IIS Twitter account. The United States said it | :19:42. | :19:45. | |
carried out an air strike against a senior Isis official north-west of | :19:46. | :19:51. | |
Aleppo, where they say he died. They have not confirmed that it was | :19:52. | :19:56. | |
al-Adnani. They say they're still looking into it. But all kinds of | :19:57. | :20:03. | |
people are active in area. How big a blow is that to Islamic State? I | :20:04. | :20:10. | |
think quite significant. It is going after the number two of the | :20:11. | :20:13. | |
organisation in terms of someone who is very important, he was directing | :20:14. | :20:17. | |
these plots that were hitting Europe. Number two, is that what you | :20:18. | :20:27. | |
think he was? In many respects he even eclipsed by daddy in terms of | :20:28. | :20:31. | |
profile and prominence. But Eddie of course being de facto head of the | :20:32. | :20:34. | |
so-called caliphate. To what extent is Isis and system that carries on | :20:35. | :20:42. | |
operating even when you take out key individuals? Or is it reliant on | :20:43. | :20:46. | |
some charismatic figures who run the show? IIS is dependent on these | :20:47. | :20:52. | |
important leaders who carry charisma and standing, of the most important | :20:53. | :20:58. | |
things about al-Adnani Izzy had pedigree and have been fighting | :20:59. | :21:04. | |
since 2003 with Al-Qaeda in Iraq. He had a long period to become a very | :21:05. | :21:10. | |
skilled fighter and so on. That also gave him credibility amongst | :21:11. | :21:13. | |
comrades. In that sense it is important and we've seen in the past | :21:14. | :21:19. | |
with Al-Qaeda, with the removal of Osama bin Ladin, in a way Al-Qaeda | :21:20. | :21:23. | |
never recovered. I do not expect this to be quite so significant with | :21:24. | :21:27. | |
IES with the loss of al-Adnani but it does have an effect. In Europe | :21:28. | :21:32. | |
one interest will be that this is a man who inspired lots of people to | :21:33. | :21:38. | |
carry out the atrocities in this confidence. To think it will make a | :21:39. | :21:46. | |
difference to that, is that, have Isis been benefiting from people | :21:47. | :21:49. | |
with mental health difficulties in Europe who latched onto them? | :21:50. | :21:56. | |
Someone like al-Adnani clearly did inspire people but in a sense he got | :21:57. | :22:01. | |
the ball rolling, he has inspired people who have never been to Syria | :22:02. | :22:06. | |
and Iraq to carry out attacks in the name of the group. In that sense he | :22:07. | :22:10. | |
has done what he had to do. It will be interesting to see who replaces | :22:11. | :22:14. | |
him and the nature of his successor. But the types of people in essence | :22:15. | :22:19. | |
likely to have been inspired by him will look at these events today and | :22:20. | :22:23. | |
take inspiration from that in and of itself. Thank you. | :22:24. | :22:28. | |
Jeremy Corbyn released his manifesto for digital democracy today.. | :22:29. | :22:30. | |
He's proposing a digital bill of rights, and high speed broadband | :22:31. | :22:33. | |
and mobile connectivity for every household. | :22:34. | :22:34. | |
He was mocked for suggesting that there might be some kind | :22:35. | :22:37. | |
of free-to-use on-line hub of learning resources - | :22:38. | :22:41. | |
given that Wikipedia has been doing that rather well for 15 years. | :22:42. | :22:44. | |
But aside from the policies, one critique of Mr Corbyn is not | :22:45. | :22:46. | |
that he is stuck in the analogue age, but that he has been | :22:47. | :22:50. | |
so seduced by digital hype, he thinks you can win elections | :22:51. | :22:52. | |
He talked today of "harnessing the advances of new technology | :22:53. | :22:59. | |
to organise political campaigning like we've never seen before". | :23:00. | :23:02. | |
A 67-year-old MP might seem an unlikely social media star, | :23:03. | :23:16. | |
but Jeremy Corbyn is the centre of a surprisingly fertile | :23:17. | :23:20. | |
online mass movement, and today he set out his vision | :23:21. | :23:23. | |
As part of Labour's plans for a universally accessible | :23:24. | :23:30. | |
national education service, we will create a free to use | :23:31. | :23:33. | |
online hub we are calling an open knowledge library, | :23:34. | :23:36. | |
a digital repository of lessons, lectures and curricula... | :23:37. | :23:40. | |
He's not the most charismatic of speakers but his supporters | :23:41. | :23:44. | |
who gathered online don't really seem to mind. | :23:45. | :23:46. | |
Britain's most important social medium. | :23:47. | :23:51. | |
A poll last year found 55% of women had lately used Facebook, | :23:52. | :23:54. | |
The equivalent figures for Twitter are 16% of all women and 2% | :23:55. | :24:03. | |
Around 800,000 people have shown enough interest in Jeremy Corbyn | :24:04. | :24:08. | |
to get regular Facebook updates from his team. | :24:09. | :24:14. | |
As well as an alternative broadcast tool, it's also been an organising | :24:15. | :24:17. | |
So we've seen lots of people engaging and participating | :24:18. | :24:23. | |
through social media, and it's actually something that's | :24:24. | :24:25. | |
facilitated off-line activity as well, so that's how we've been | :24:26. | :24:28. | |
able to get huge numbers at meetings and rallies. | :24:29. | :24:31. | |
We've mobilised lots of volunteers to join | :24:32. | :24:33. | |
The official campaign is just a small part of the Corbyn | :24:34. | :24:38. | |
Jeremy Corbyn has a massive presence on Facebook with hundreds | :24:39. | :24:43. | |
of thousands of followers, which is run by his campaign, | :24:44. | :24:51. | |
but separately, run just by activists or by individuals, | :24:52. | :24:53. | |
who make images and then share them, all these smaller groups, | :24:54. | :24:56. | |
and essentially an image might take hold on Facebook and within 24 hours | :24:57. | :24:59. | |
be seen by far more people than the official Facebook page, | :25:00. | :25:01. | |
without the official campaign ever organising it. | :25:02. | :25:03. | |
And even if the campaign went away tomorrow, those sorts of images | :25:04. | :25:06. | |
Here's an example, and like lots, it's a bit | :25:07. | :25:10. | |
It compares expenses of an MP who can cycle to Westminster from | :25:11. | :25:15. | |
Team Corbyn has already found itself having | :25:16. | :25:24. | |
to answer for the views and | :25:25. | :25:25. | |
The fact that a lot of the content created in the name of the Corbyn | :25:26. | :25:33. | |
campaign is not actually controlled by them can | :25:34. | :25:35. | |
For example, at the moment the campaign | :25:36. | :25:37. | |
has tried to distance itself from the work of the Canary, a | :25:38. | :25:41. | |
publication that is online and pushes often | :25:42. | :25:44. | |
This expert thinks it might have its roots in Labour's unfocused | :25:45. | :25:50. | |
You see Labour were very effective at whipping up conversations among | :25:51. | :25:54. | |
the politically engaged, a lot of anti-government | :25:55. | :25:57. | |
While that's not effective when you have an electorate of | :25:58. | :26:02. | |
essentially 45 million people, it's incredibly | :26:03. | :26:05. | |
effective when you have a | :26:06. | :26:07. | |
much smaller electorate, if you like the membership | :26:08. | :26:09. | |
of the Labour Party, and affiliated organisations who are | :26:10. | :26:11. | |
going to decide this particular election. | :26:12. | :26:13. | |
You can see that that kind of method of operating, while it | :26:14. | :26:26. | |
doesn't particularly work in electoral politics, with the wider | :26:27. | :26:28. | |
public being incredibly effective in smaller and politically engaged | :26:29. | :26:30. | |
So can Labour turn this big group of keyed up activists into | :26:31. | :26:34. | |
From my experience of the Obama campaigns, an organisation that won | :26:35. | :26:40. | |
a primary and two general elections, you need to both | :26:41. | :26:42. | |
have the grassroots energy, but also the organisation and data | :26:43. | :26:45. | |
and context to make it meaningful in an electoral contest. | :26:46. | :26:53. | |
And so, to be able to create the space for | :26:54. | :26:55. | |
energy is one thing, but to be able to marshal | :26:56. | :26:58. | |
where you can produce an electoral outcome is something else, and it | :26:59. | :27:02. | |
remains to be seen if the scale and capacity of the Corbyn side is going | :27:03. | :27:06. | |
The Corbynasphere utterly dominates Labour's internal elections. | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
So far, though, it had no visible success peeling off swing | :27:11. | :27:13. | |
Theresa May is back at work now, having taken a nice Swiss holiday. | :27:14. | :27:21. | |
Tomorrow is an important one - the cabinet will sit | :27:22. | :27:24. | |
Nick Watt is also back from his holiday. | :27:25. | :27:32. | |
Great to have you back. It feels a bit like things are settling in. | :27:33. | :27:40. | |
What did we learn today? Theresa May is saying no to a second referendum, | :27:41. | :27:45. | |
no Tonelli General election after the Brexit boat but yes to beginning | :27:46. | :27:49. | |
the process early next year of taking the UK out of the EU by | :27:50. | :27:54. | |
triggering Article 50 of the Ms Bond Treaty. But without a vote in | :27:55. | :27:58. | |
parliament and assuming that she wins a legal challenge against that. | :27:59. | :28:04. | |
Had we been paying attention when Theresa May launched a leadership | :28:05. | :28:07. | |
contest in the early summer, we would not have been surprised. She | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
said it would be wrong to add to the uncertainty by holding an election | :28:12. | :28:13. | |
and she said that Brexit means Brexit. As one and I said, she needs | :28:14. | :28:19. | |
to trigger it early next year so she can take in the UK out of the EU by | :28:20. | :28:26. | |
2019 and go into a general election in 2020 and say, you voted to leave | :28:27. | :28:31. | |
and I delivered it, can I have the reward? We learned some things today | :28:32. | :28:37. | |
but if we had paid attention we would have known that. What about | :28:38. | :28:41. | |
tomorrow? The Cabinet awayday at Chequers, beginning with the formal | :28:42. | :28:47. | |
cabinet. And then the officials will gently be shown the door and the | :28:48. | :28:50. | |
real business in the political Cabinet begins. And the three | :28:51. | :28:55. | |
Brexiteers, David Davis, Liam Fox and Boris Johnson will do | :28:56. | :28:59. | |
presentations on how things are going. There has been some signs of | :29:00. | :29:03. | |
tension between those three and Theresa May was not amused by that. | :29:04. | :29:08. | |
And she needs them to get their ducks in a row so there is an agreed | :29:09. | :29:13. | |
UK position by the time that she triggers Article 50 early in the New | :29:14. | :29:17. | |
Year. Ayew any clearer about what that position could be cursed at the | :29:18. | :29:22. | |
grand bargain is that the UK needs to take back control of immigration | :29:23. | :29:26. | |
and if you're doing that then you're going to limit your access to the | :29:27. | :29:32. | |
single market. I spoke to one senior Whitehall source today who said that | :29:33. | :29:36. | |
the key thing is the UK has got to be a rule maker and not a rule | :29:37. | :29:40. | |
taker. And this person said I think that means we will have limited | :29:41. | :29:45. | |
access to the single market and interestingly, perhaps no passports. | :29:46. | :29:50. | |
This is the process allowing us to sell our financial services around | :29:51. | :29:54. | |
the EU and this person is saying the process that we might move towards | :29:55. | :29:58. | |
is equivalent, we as the UK said the rules and regulations and then we | :29:59. | :30:03. | |
say, they are the equivalent of the EU. But who would arbitrate? But | :30:04. | :30:09. | |
Theresa May has been visiting five European capitals and she has been | :30:10. | :30:15. | |
struck about how UK -- EU leaders are worried, and are sounding | :30:16. | :30:22. | |
flexible on free movement of workers and not people. That could be | :30:23. | :30:23. | |
encouraging for her. Well, as the new political | :30:24. | :30:26. | |
term is almost upon us, we've invited along a panel | :30:27. | :30:29. | |
of friendly experts to offer some We've asked each of you to tell us | :30:30. | :30:31. | |
what her priority should be. Here with us: Anne McElvoy | :30:32. | :30:38. | |
from the Economist, Polly Toynbee from the Guardian, | :30:39. | :30:42. | |
and Fraser Nelson - If she has to pick one priority, | :30:43. | :30:50. | |
what should it be at this point? I think a big priority for Theresa May | :30:51. | :30:55. | |
is people outside London, outside the urban centres who may be voted | :30:56. | :31:00. | |
for Brexit but not die-hard Eurosceptics. Just people who have | :31:01. | :31:04. | |
become a bit divorced from what goes on at Westminster, who feel the | :31:05. | :31:07. | |
system doesn't work very well for them. She sees quite small | :31:08. | :31:12. | |
irrational people, a lot of Brexit is blamed on people being | :31:13. | :31:16. | |
dispossessed. She knows a lot of people voted for this and it is a | :31:17. | :31:22. | |
symbol, if you like, if this dislocation. She wants to put this | :31:23. | :31:25. | |
back together and rebuild small sweet conservativism. Particularly | :31:26. | :31:31. | |
outside London but the previous government had a big idea, Northern | :31:32. | :31:35. | |
powerhouse. We've been a bit all over the place? She doesn't like | :31:36. | :31:41. | |
that, it sounds to top down, too many banker friends of George | :31:42. | :31:45. | |
Osborne doing the right things for Manchester. Very nice for Manchester | :31:46. | :31:49. | |
and Leeds, but it left a lot of holes in between thinking, what | :31:50. | :31:53. | |
about us? I think we will see less of that big headlining, the grand | :31:54. | :31:59. | |
ideas, and more as a now reached a lots of places who can feel they | :32:00. | :32:02. | |
have a stake. How she will deliver that will be difficult and | :32:03. | :32:06. | |
interesting. That is one. What do you think a priority should be? She | :32:07. | :32:10. | |
has to explain who she is and what her agenda is. People have known as | :32:11. | :32:15. | |
the Home Secretary for ages but she's not one who would tell you | :32:16. | :32:18. | |
about her vision of politics and how it differs from David Cameron's and | :32:19. | :32:21. | |
what direction she would take the country in. It wasn't long ago we | :32:22. | :32:26. | |
were watching television debates of three leaders, which seems | :32:27. | :32:30. | |
ridiculous we have people who are entirely different. She hasn't had a | :32:31. | :32:33. | |
leadership contest to explain this. Right now she should be going up and | :32:34. | :32:37. | |
down the country, trying to explain what she intends to do. She has been | :32:38. | :32:41. | |
very quiet, partly because she has been on holiday, but she hasn't been | :32:42. | :32:46. | |
putting herself about? Even her own Cabinet don't know what her agenda | :32:47. | :32:50. | |
is and some don't know why they were appointed. She needs to get her | :32:51. | :32:54. | |
agenda across to them first and then to the rest of the country. There is | :32:55. | :33:01. | |
no such thing as Mayism right now. She needs to find out, tell her | :33:02. | :33:06. | |
colleagues and then the rest of us. Polly? The big discussion starts | :33:07. | :33:09. | |
tomorrow, the honeymoon is over and she is confronted with a Cabinet | :33:10. | :33:15. | |
that is riven over the big issue of Brexit. Even the three Brexiteers | :33:16. | :33:23. | |
don't really agree. She said Brexit means Brexit, that is meaningless, | :33:24. | :33:28. | |
nobody knows what it means. A delightfully helpful get out clause. | :33:29. | :33:32. | |
She has to say what she means by it. In my view that should be supporting | :33:33. | :33:35. | |
Philip Hammond and saying we have to stay in the single market. She has | :33:36. | :33:39. | |
to set the parameters and not allow them to all run away with a great | :33:40. | :33:44. | |
squabble amongst themselves. She has to establish her authority and | :33:45. | :33:47. | |
sakes, this is what I mean by Brexit. Interested to hear your | :33:48. | :33:51. | |
views, we will have as many as we can accommodate, but she has to say | :33:52. | :33:55. | |
what Brexit is. It is a nightmare. I don't think any Prime Minister in | :33:56. | :33:59. | |
living memory has stepped into such an appalling situation. Rishi has | :34:00. | :34:07. | |
more had Brexit is in her party. -- she has more. It is not easy. She | :34:08. | :34:13. | |
does, but she has a huge majority in the House of Commons who are | :34:14. | :34:21. | |
Remainers and it will come back to the House of Commons. The | :34:22. | :34:24. | |
communities act has to be repealed, every element of this will end up | :34:25. | :34:27. | |
being discussed in parliament. It may drive the rest of the country to | :34:28. | :34:32. | |
desperation with its complexities, but it's important. What do you say? | :34:33. | :34:42. | |
She is also a Remainer, but a quiet one. Fraser was interesting saying | :34:43. | :34:46. | |
there's no such thing as Mayism, but apart from that she has a blank | :34:47. | :34:51. | |
sheet on which to write. She has been very good in not boxing herself | :34:52. | :34:56. | |
in, in her position as Home Secretary. And even fair on the Bill | :34:57. | :35:00. | |
of Rights and things, she created some space for herself. My worry is, | :35:01. | :35:05. | |
does she know, does she have the team, does she have the planning | :35:06. | :35:08. | |
order quickly to put into that space? I think she has been very | :35:09. | :35:12. | |
clever at getting where she got to. She has come through as apes | :35:13. | :35:16. | |
Remainer in charge of a Brexit cabinet. Polly says it is | :35:17. | :35:19. | |
unmanageable but she is chairing these committees. She knows how to | :35:20. | :35:23. | |
run the organisational chart of government. Fraser, if she was so | :35:24. | :35:29. | |
minded, can she basically say we are going to stay in the single market | :35:30. | :35:33. | |
and have a minimal change on free movement best or does she have to | :35:34. | :35:39. | |
say, free movement is ended? I think she has to. The way the referendum | :35:40. | :35:43. | |
campaign was fought, there was an unwritten understanding that freedom | :35:44. | :35:47. | |
of movement was a problem. The idea you can control the ever rising EU | :35:48. | :35:51. | |
migration turned out to be one of the central issues of the referendum | :35:52. | :35:55. | |
campaign. Technically she could do a Norway. When she says Brexit means | :35:56. | :36:01. | |
Brexit she means we're not going to do a Norway, it does actually mean | :36:02. | :36:09. | |
coming out of it. We are drifting towards probably no passport in | :36:10. | :36:14. | |
front biggest export industry? Absolutely. I think it was fairly | :36:15. | :36:19. | |
widely discussed in the campaign. Something Phil Hammond is concerned | :36:20. | :36:25. | |
about. Absolutely. She has other huge problems on her plate, the NHS | :36:26. | :36:29. | |
is on its knees. People voted Brexit and they were promised, ?350 million | :36:30. | :36:36. | |
that the NHS, social care is in a state of absolute collapse. Where is | :36:37. | :36:39. | |
the money going to come from? We don't know what her economic | :36:40. | :36:43. | |
policies are. Is she willing to borrow or let the deficit slip? | :36:44. | :36:47. | |
Would you call an election if you were her not right now. But if she's | :36:48. | :36:55. | |
going to be so much different from David Cameron, and it looks as if | :36:56. | :36:59. | |
she is so far, then I think she has to. If her agenda is significantly | :37:00. | :37:03. | |
different to the one the country voted for last year, then she ought | :37:04. | :37:08. | |
to. Spring next year? Spring or summer next year. Hopefully Labour | :37:09. | :37:12. | |
will reckon resemble an opposition by then. Is it the best thing to say | :37:13. | :37:19. | |
you're not going to do it until you actually do it? I don't think why | :37:20. | :37:23. | |
she needs to. I think she is in such a commanding position, the Labour is | :37:24. | :37:27. | |
in a state of shambolic collapse. I don't see why she doesn't simply | :37:28. | :37:31. | |
plan her course, do what she wants to do. She's pretty much mistress of | :37:32. | :37:36. | |
all she surveys. She will only do when she has a deal, a reliable | :37:37. | :37:43. | |
deal... Do you think we need to be clear about Brexit before the | :37:44. | :37:48. | |
election? Yes, otherwise it becomes referendum two, the horror story | :37:49. | :37:52. | |
continues. What is in it for her? She is not under massive pressure | :37:53. | :37:56. | |
from the Labour Party for the foreseeable future. I think she can | :37:57. | :38:00. | |
largely control the terms. It may be 2020 is a long way away, but she | :38:01. | :38:05. | |
does know she has got control, because nobody else, as it turned | :38:06. | :38:08. | |
out, in her party, could do it better. We will leave it there. | :38:09. | :38:11. | |
Thank you all very much. That's about it tonight, | :38:12. | :38:14. | |
but before we go a little tribute to one of America's most loved comic | :38:15. | :38:17. | |
actors Gene Wilder Millions of children grew up | :38:18. | :38:19. | |
with his classic "Willy Wonka He also provided the magic | :38:20. | :38:23. | |
for the box office juggernauts Bonnie and Clyde, Stir Crazy | :38:24. | :38:26. | |
and The Producers, which won him In his later years he found most | :38:27. | :38:29. | |
comfort in his writing but we'll leave you with this | :38:30. | :38:33. | |
family favourite. # Anything you want to, | :38:34. | :38:34. | |
do it Good evening, a stunning day across | :38:35. | :40:02. | |
most of the UK today. Tomorrow, a change coming our way. This weather | :40:03. | :40:05. | |
front will be crossing the country bringing a spell of cloud and some | :40:06. | :40:10. | |
rain. Not a lot of rain but at times you might need an umbrella. This is | :40:11. | :40:13. | |
what it looks like in the afternoon across Northern Ireland. Most of the | :40:14. | :40:17. | |
day will be quite bright with a few showers, the showers will also get | :40:18. | :40:21. | |
into Scotland, through the lowlands | :40:22. | :40:22. |