01/09/2016 Newsnight


01/09/2016

Reporting on social mobility, Labour's leadership battle, Greenland as a model for leaving Europe, the Brexit 'bounce', and the US election. With Kirsty Wark.


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Privilege and patronage still pays off - whether its young

:00:00.:00:00.

Etonians at the Kremlin or working-class candidates all

:00:07.:00:08.

What's all this got to do with the Great Gatsby.

:00:09.:00:15.

On the day of a damning report by the Social Mobility Commission,

:00:16.:00:21.

More Labour manoeuvres - a bid to reintroduce democratic

:00:22.:00:26.

The Corbynistas are dead against it now.

:00:27.:00:29.

People around Ed Miliband are spinning this as his clause four

:00:30.:00:34.

moment, where he demonstrates strong leadership by beating

:00:35.:00:36.

I just think he's misread the situation.

:00:37.:00:49.

We'll talk to the Labour MP who is behind the move.

:00:50.:00:51.

The territory did just that in 1984 and Brussels banned the seal trade.

:00:52.:00:56.

It's been difficult when you sit on the outside.

:00:57.:00:58.

It would be a lot easier to sit on the inside, at the table, and say

:00:59.:01:02.

And, by the way, I don't like this mic.

:01:03.:01:17.

Whoever the hell brought this mic system, don't pay him.

:01:18.:01:19.

Is Trump versus Clinton America's weirdest election ever?

:01:20.:01:23.

We convene America's freshist commentators.

:01:24.:01:27.

Today there were two stark reminders of how much class still matters.

:01:28.:01:33.

In a variation of the adage "too posh to push", today's report

:01:34.:01:40.

by the Social Mobility Commission suggests if you're posh you don't

:01:41.:01:43.

need to push to make your way into employment in areas such

:01:44.:01:45.

Indeed, you might be best qualified for the job,

:01:46.:01:49.

but if you don't have the right attire, for example,

:01:50.:01:52.

if you're male - brown shoes and a loud tie - or the right accent

:01:53.:01:56.

or you don't carry yourself well - you can forget it.

:01:57.:01:59.

While all the Old Etonians might have been kicked out of the Cabinet,

:02:00.:02:03.

we learned that Young Etonians are more than welcome

:02:04.:02:05.

Would there have been such a warm welcome from Vladimir Putin

:02:06.:02:09.

for a bunch of male sixth formers from a local comp?

:02:10.:02:11.

Social mobility is apparently at the top of Theresa May's bucket

:02:12.:02:14.

list, but does any politician really have the political courage

:02:15.:02:16.

Our policy editor, Chris Cook, reports.

:02:17.:02:27.

Britain has a particular issue with social mobility. We can't seem to

:02:28.:02:32.

get people moving in the right direction. Dress code is the latest

:02:33.:02:40.

suspect. A new report in the City found that few paws that wearing

:02:41.:02:45.

brown shoes with a suit were hobbling the careers of people from

:02:46.:02:50.

less grand backgrounds. Meanwhile, a group of Etonians on a trip to

:02:51.:02:55.

Moscow spent time in the Kremlin, even meeting Vladimir Putin. No

:02:56.:02:59.

brown shoes there. You can see why Theresa May made the opportunity

:03:00.:03:02.

agenda central to her opening statement as Prime Minister. If

:03:03.:03:05.

you're a white, working-class boy, your' less likely than anybody else

:03:06.:03:10.

in Britain to go to university. If you're at a state school, you're

:03:11.:03:16.

less likely to reach the top professes than if you are educated

:03:17.:03:20.

privately. Perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised that Britain has a

:03:21.:03:24.

social mobility problem. Economists have described something known as

:03:25.:03:30.

the Great Gatsby curve after the novel of a bootlegger in the roaring

:03:31.:03:38.

20s.s. That hes a the name for observation with countries with

:03:39.:03:41.

higher inequality you tend to get lower social mobility. These bar

:03:42.:03:49.

show how closely linked, the higher the bar, the more important your

:03:50.:03:53.

family back underis. The higher bar means worse social mobility. You can

:03:54.:03:58.

see the Great Gatsby effect. In more unequal countries, like the US and

:03:59.:04:02.

the UK, social mobility is a bigger problem. In more equal countries,

:04:03.:04:08.

like Sweden and Germany, things are a bit better. Social mobility then

:04:09.:04:12.

is a rather bigger issue than just city recruit am. In fact, it's been

:04:13.:04:16.

a major issue in Westminster, in particular, for the last 10 years or

:04:17.:04:21.

so. Ever since research emerged which suggests that poor people born

:04:22.:04:28.

in 1970 had worst life chances than people born in 1958. One of the

:04:29.:04:32.

authors of that research thinks things may have got better. When the

:04:33.:04:36.

social mobility in the UK was falling, yes, there was a stronger

:04:37.:04:39.

link between family background and education. When we look more

:04:40.:04:42.

recently, through children going into Edinburgh education in the 90s,

:04:43.:04:47.

we could see that there was a real catch-up for poor kids and that many

:04:48.:04:51.

more were getting good GCSEs and doing well. In general terms we've

:04:52.:04:57.

seen disadvantaged pupils at school do better and make a faster rate of

:04:58.:05:01.

progress in their educational attain am than the average. There has been

:05:02.:05:05.

a closing of the gap. We know that's a pretty decent proxy for what's

:05:06.:05:09.

likely to happen to some element of social mobility in the future. Is

:05:10.:05:14.

education the key thing though? Is let's go back to that graph. We can

:05:15.:05:19.

actually estimate how much of our social mobility problem can be

:05:20.:05:22.

explained by the fact that educational achievement is unequal.

:05:23.:05:26.

That is the portion in red. So you can see in Germany, where it's

:05:27.:05:35.

selected schools, education seems to be the driver of mobility. In

:05:36.:05:38.

Britain who ends up with which qualifications accounts for about

:05:39.:05:41.

half of the problem. It's other things. Things like brown shoes that

:05:42.:05:47.

account for the rest. So do we need to focus on things other than

:05:48.:05:51.

education? Yes. I think we are learning more about the importance

:05:52.:05:54.

of other factors. Of course, education is always important, but

:05:55.:05:58.

if you look at the United States and the recent studies in there in some

:05:59.:06:03.

cities, like Seattle, higher levels of social mobility than other cities

:06:04.:06:08.

like Atlanta. Part is education, but part is how concentrated poverty is

:06:09.:06:10.

within a city and how distributed it is. It's also urban transportation

:06:11.:06:16.

systems, it's how the city has been planned. These other broader factors

:06:17.:06:19.

about city development are very important.

:06:20.:06:23.

NEWS REEL: Today decide 07... As anyone who

:06:24.:06:27.

visited Eton would know, parents have very different sets of

:06:28.:06:30.

resources with which to make sure their kids do well. Inequality makes

:06:31.:06:35.

the policy objective of aiding social mobility.

:06:36.:06:38.

Tougher. If there's an arms race in that children are constantly being

:06:39.:06:44.

pushed to do better and richer parents are better prepared for that

:06:45.:06:49.

kind of arms race, they can prepare their children using private tutors,

:06:50.:06:52.

giving the information they need about the best universities. It's

:06:53.:06:56.

hard to know what public policy can do about that and if indeed it would

:06:57.:07:01.

want to intervene. Getting poor kids to rise above their richer peers

:07:02.:07:07.

means fixing a lot. But if you do that, richer parents will fight

:07:08.:07:12.

back. Optimism on mobility is thin on the ground.

:07:13.:07:14.

Well, joining me now from Southampton is

:07:15.:07:21.

Lord David Willetts, who, until 2014, was in

:07:22.:07:23.

David Cameron's Cabinet as Universities Minister and now

:07:24.:07:25.

Executive Director of the Resolution Foundation,

:07:26.:07:27.

Faiza Shaheen, director of the Class think-tank, and writer Poppy Noor.

:07:28.:07:31.

Hello to all of you. David Willet is. This is meant to be Theresa

:07:32.:07:39.

May's big push, after Brexit, of course. What can she do that David

:07:40.:07:43.

Cameron couldn't? I hope that we can, first of all, see more people

:07:44.:07:48.

going to university and then employers recruiting from a wider

:07:49.:07:53.

range of universities. This specific report today on investment banking

:07:54.:07:56.

shows that part of the problem they are looking to four or five

:07:57.:07:59.

universities and the initiatives that are underway that broaden

:08:00.:08:04.

employers horizons so they recruit more broadly is very significant.

:08:05.:08:08.

Secondly, the reason why I'm one of the optimists, I think the big data

:08:09.:08:12.

revolution is arriving with social mobility and it will be increasingly

:08:13.:08:18.

possible for employers to design their own ways of boosting social

:08:19.:08:22.

mobility, saying they want to look at students, applicants in the top

:08:23.:08:26.

10% or 20er % of their class which ever type of school they were at. It

:08:27.:08:31.

doesn't exist at the moment. I want to bring Poppy Noor in here. You

:08:32.:08:36.

were homeless, you were on benefits, and you went to Cambridge. Was that

:08:37.:08:42.

pure luck and hard work or did you actually have state help? Yep. That

:08:43.:08:49.

was happening at a time when there was a much more robust welfare

:08:50.:08:52.

system for people from my background. In terms of university

:08:53.:08:58.

you had Educational Maintenance Allowance. Maintenance grants for

:08:59.:09:01.

pupils from poorer backgrounds which you don't have now. You have to have

:09:02.:09:05.

loans. There was a lot more financial assistance. You had a

:09:06.:09:09.

teacher who backed you, pushed you, you weren't going to have anywhere

:09:10.:09:14.

to live when it wasn't term time. This teacher insisted the college,

:09:15.:09:19.

said to Trinity - is there somewhere she can live. That made a difference

:09:20.:09:23.

or you wouldn't have gone? It would have made a big difference. The

:09:24.:09:27.

question is - how do we make the university system more accessible

:09:28.:09:30.

for people who don't have those kind of teachers. What was it like? What

:09:31.:09:34.

attitudes did you come up against at Cambridge? I think once you get to

:09:35.:09:40.

university, if you are from a working-class background, it's a

:09:41.:09:43.

long experience of trying not to be bullied out. It really is. People

:09:44.:09:47.

kind of... I speak about the fact that when I first started at Trinity

:09:48.:09:53.

I was chased through the gates on a daily basis by officials asking me

:09:54.:09:56.

if I went there. Because, you know, passing the interview and getting my

:09:57.:10:02.

grades wasn't enough. Poppy would agree she has become more

:10:03.:10:07.

middle-class, your accent changed. It shows that social mobility is a

:10:08.:10:12.

big issue? Sure. Social mobility and the lack of it is a big issue. The

:10:13.:10:19.

issue I have, it's an inspiring story, Poppy beat the odds to get

:10:20.:10:22.

there. Exceptional. She was the exception. The point is social

:10:23.:10:26.

mobility, I really think it's a flawed concept. What it says is that

:10:27.:10:32.

- as long as you... We have people rising up, it's fine to have huge

:10:33.:10:37.

levels of inequality, fine to leave people behind in a bad flight

:10:38.:10:40.

plight. It plays into the idea that life should be a rat ration. I don't

:10:41.:10:43.

think it's a good vision for society. There should be dignity for

:10:44.:10:48.

all, not a matter of - you have to go to Oxford or Cambridge shall -.

:10:49.:10:53.

What you're saying those who rise up there will have to be those who come

:10:54.:10:57.

down. See saw will always exist? Not just that. It's matter of... A sense

:10:58.:11:02.

of like you have to move out of your working-class background. We should

:11:03.:11:05.

be ashamed of that background and should look down at people that

:11:06.:11:10.

haven't made it to the top. Isn't that right, Lord David Willetts,

:11:11.:11:15.

that it's not OK. One must strive at least to be middle-class, that

:11:16.:11:19.

actually being working-class is something you have to try and get

:11:20.:11:24.

rid of nowadays? I think it's good that people have aspirations to get

:11:25.:11:28.

on into well-paid jobs and have professional careers. I think it

:11:29.:11:31.

would be a really bad message to send that was somehow an aspiration

:11:32.:11:37.

we want to oppose. I do accept that then across society people do a

:11:38.:11:41.

whole range of jobs and a lot of where you end up is luck. It

:11:42.:11:43.

shouldn't be the case that because you've ended up in a particularly

:11:44.:11:47.

well-paid job or profession you look down on or think this is somehow

:11:48.:11:52.

some judge of your moral worth. So in the way that Poppy has been

:11:53.:11:55.

talking about her own circumstance, that would have been open to a whole

:11:56.:11:58.

lot more people if a lot of the maintenance grants and so forth had

:11:59.:12:03.

still been kept. She said it was a more benign atmosphere, if it could

:12:04.:12:08.

be call benign then than it is now. I would argue, as students don't pay

:12:09.:12:13.

up front there is no reason why I student should be put off going. As

:12:14.:12:17.

we have got rid of the control of the number of students going, there

:12:18.:12:20.

are more students going, particularly more students from

:12:21.:12:24.

lower income backgrounds. It's an argument based on privilege and the

:12:25.:12:27.

idea that one day you will be able... I mean, the fact that you

:12:28.:12:32.

don't have to pay upfront doesn't make you any more nervous about your

:12:33.:12:36.

ability to pay it later on. Why should it be. Why should you be

:12:37.:12:44.

thinking about you could do a degree because of the money you have got.

:12:45.:12:48.

No student has to think about how much money they've got. The

:12:49.:12:54.

evidence... The evidence is that more applicants apply for university

:12:55.:13:01.

from low income backgrounds. Let us look at the signifiers in society.

:13:02.:13:08.

Before we talk about the young Eton eatians at the Kremlin. Let's talk

:13:09.:13:12.

about attitudes in banking, simple things like you dress wrongly, your

:13:13.:13:16.

accent is wrong, brown shoes with a suit. These are signifiers that you

:13:17.:13:20.

can laugh about them, they actually made a huge difference to certain

:13:21.:13:24.

applicants? Yes. I think that's shocking. In fact, what's even more

:13:25.:13:29.

shocking is the number of privately educated people in investment

:13:30.:13:31.

banking appears to be going up, not down. It's bad for investment

:13:32.:13:35.

banking. They need to recruit from a wider, more diverse talent pool and

:13:36.:13:40.

particularly that means looking out beyond four or five universities. It

:13:41.:13:44.

is interesting how this evening we focused on getting to came bridge.

:13:45.:13:48.

That is fantastic. No. Poppy went there. We are not focussing on

:13:49.:13:53.

getting to Cambridge, Poppy'ses exceptional story. Coming to talk

:13:54.:13:58.

about that. The signal that it sends also that Putin will have young

:13:59.:14:02.

Etonians there where I don't think he would have somebody from a

:14:03.:14:06.

comprehensive from Newcastle there. It wouldn't have matter. They were

:14:07.:14:09.

showing something by being able to get to him. That privilege still

:14:10.:14:16.

exists? It reminds us it's who - who you know. I want to go back very

:14:17.:14:20.

quickly on that issue of debt. When you come out of uni from a less

:14:21.:14:25.

privileged background you come out with ?53,000 of debt. I mean,

:14:26.:14:28.

actually to pay that back, when you are from a richer background, you

:14:29.:14:33.

pay that back sooner. Those from... Will find it hard to buy a house. It

:14:34.:14:40.

does disadvantage you still. All political parties talk the talk over

:14:41.:14:44.

social mobility. Poppy, what do you think would actually be something

:14:45.:14:47.

they could achieve and achieve quickly?

:14:48.:14:53.

have been told for so long the reason therein isn't more int about

:14:54.:15:01.

things like education, it is about they haven't got the right grades,

:15:02.:15:04.

maybe they haven't worked hard enough. What the report shows is it

:15:05.:15:11.

doesn't matter how well you do your class back ground will act against

:15:12.:15:15.

you. That is a good argument for positive discrimination.

:15:16.:15:17.

In a motion to reintroduce elections for the Shadow Cabinet a bid to heal

:15:18.:15:25.

divisions in the party or a cunning plan to thwart Jeremy Corbyn?

:15:26.:15:28.

When Parliament returns on Monday, Labour backbencher, Clive Betts,

:15:29.:15:30.

will table a motion for the PLP meeting in order,

:15:31.:15:32.

as his motion put it, "To ensure that the Shadow Cabinet

:15:33.:15:35.

has the support of backbench Labour MPs and that the entire PLP can

:15:36.:15:38.

The elections were scrapped by Ed Miliband five years ago,

:15:39.:15:44.

so you'd think that the Corbynistas would be in favour.

:15:45.:15:47.

Well, all is not quite as it seems in Labour land.

:15:48.:15:50.

I'm joined by our political editor, Nick Watt.

:15:51.:15:57.

Nick, tell me about Monday's vote? That is right. There a debate on

:15:58.:16:03.

this on the motion in the PLP on Monday and probably a vote on it on

:16:04.:16:07.

Tuesday, and as you were saying this was the system that was in place in

:16:08.:16:12.

the long years of opposition under Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock and

:16:13.:16:16.

established by Ed Miliband must to the conster macing of one

:16:17.:16:18.

backbencher at the time. I hear that people around

:16:19.:16:23.

Ed Miliband are spreading this as his clause four moment,

:16:24.:16:28.

where he demonstrates strong leadership by beating

:16:29.:16:30.

the party into submission. I just think he's

:16:31.:16:31.

misread the situation. Ed Miliband dropped them because of

:16:32.:16:43.

the whole of the Shadow Cabinet was more of a David Miliband complexion.

:16:44.:16:49.

We will hear from Clive Beths who is tabling this motion who is saying

:16:50.:16:53.

it's a matter of promoting unity. The Corbyn camp may be smelling a

:16:54.:16:57.

rat. I think the view in the Corbyn camp may well be that he did an

:16:58.:17:02.

inclusive Shadow Cabinet when he became leader, appointed Tony

:17:03.:17:06.

Blair's former flatmate and there is a feeling this is a delayed part of

:17:07.:17:10.

the coup an attempt to make Jeremy Corbyn perhaps a prisoner of a hoes

:17:11.:17:16.

style Shadow Cabinet. Maybe they can say election, that is a great idea,

:17:17.:17:22.

why don't we widen the franchise beyond the PLP and allow the

:17:23.:17:26.

Conference to elect the members of the Shadow Cabinet. Thank you.

:17:27.:17:28.

Joining us from Sheffield is the MP who has tabled that

:17:29.:17:32.

It is hard to see this anything other than an attempt to hobble the

:17:33.:17:44.

man you think is going to win the leadership election, Jeremy Corbyn.

:17:45.:17:48.

First I don't know who is going to win the election, that is clearly

:17:49.:17:54.

ongoing, well, it is very easy to see it is an alternative way, my

:17:55.:18:00.

motion talks about unity, getting the whole of the Parliamentary

:18:01.:18:05.

Labour Party working together. In recent weeks I have talked to party

:18:06.:18:10.

members and lots of Labour Party voters in my constituency, and they

:18:11.:18:14.

say one simple thing, for heavens sake get your act together, start

:18:15.:18:19.

working in a united way in Westminster, start being an

:18:20.:18:22.

effective opposition to this right-wing Tory Government. We are

:18:23.:18:27.

fed up of you falling out. This is a pragmatic motion, a motion to try

:18:28.:18:31.

and help achieve that objective. Clearly only a few weeks ago we

:18:32.:18:36.

weren't working together, there was sackings, resignation, and whoever

:18:37.:18:39.

wins the leadership election we can't go back to that sort of

:18:40.:18:42.

situation. Imagine a scenario where Jeremy Corbyn does win the

:18:43.:18:47.

leadership, and elections to the Shadow Cabinet produce people like

:18:48.:18:51.

for example Yvette Cooper, Angela Eagle, all sorts of people who

:18:52.:18:56.

wouldn't perhaps it would be fair to say would not sit comfortably with,

:18:57.:18:59.

beside Jeremy Corbyn now, how is that going to heal divisions? The

:19:00.:19:04.

fact they would have to sit down, however uncomfortably and work

:19:05.:19:06.

together, that would be a major step forward in my view, and that is a

:19:07.:19:10.

you have to achieve. People recognise that there are divisions

:19:11.:19:13.

and differences from the inception of the Labour Party, we have had

:19:14.:19:16.

people of different view, backgrounds, coming together with

:19:17.:19:20.

one objective, and that is to get Labour MPs elected to get Labour

:19:21.:19:24.

councillors elected and challenge and beat the Tory, what we have to

:19:25.:19:28.

do, we can't win an election for some time to form a government is to

:19:29.:19:32.

be an effective opposition and get people of different views, who

:19:33.:19:35.

probably haven't got on in the past, to sit down together. My motion is

:19:36.:19:40.

an attempt to achieve that. I have been a member of the Labour Party

:19:41.:19:45.

for 47 year, I have been an MP for 24 year, what I feel strongly is we

:19:46.:19:50.

need party unity. That is what the members are telling me, what the

:19:51.:19:53.

voters in Sheffield are telling me. I think they are telling us up and

:19:54.:19:56.

down the country, get together and work together and be an effective

:19:57.:19:59.

opposition. My motion tries to achieve that. You will have heard

:20:00.:20:04.

our political editor say there could be some unintended consequences

:20:05.:20:09.

here, perhaps the Shadow Cabinet could be indeed elected, perhaps by

:20:10.:20:16.

the PLP, but what about wisening that and make it elected at the

:20:17.:20:22.

Labour Conference, would that not be more democratic We have the election

:20:23.:20:28.

of the Labour Party leader is done by all members and beyond, there are

:20:29.:20:33.

elections for the NEC, when we come down to the Shadow Cabinet it is

:20:34.:20:36.

right that the Parliamentary Labour Party have a say in that process to

:20:37.:20:41.

heal some of the divisions that are around now, that is my objective

:20:42.:20:44.

around my intention, you know, the other spin on it that you put s

:20:45.:20:49.

somehow it is part of the ongoing plot to curb Jeremy, if he gets back

:20:50.:20:54.

as leader, that isn't certain yet of course, that is ridiculous this is

:20:55.:20:57.

my motion, I have put the motion down, I haven't been going round

:20:58.:21:01.

talking to people and plotting with people, and trying to enlist

:21:02.:21:05.

support. I am tabling for my colleagues to reflect on whether as

:21:06.:21:09.

MPs we don't have a responsibility to Labour voters to try and sort our

:21:10.:21:12.

problems out and try and start working together more effectively.

:21:13.:21:16.

Thank you very much indeed. That is my sole objective. Back to you,

:21:17.:21:21.

there is more. Yes, this is not the only idea coming down the pipeline.

:21:22.:21:24.

I am told there is a move to try and get the Labour Conference this year,

:21:25.:21:29.

to vote on bringing back the old electoral college system. That would

:21:30.:21:33.

be seen as deeply hostile to a future Jeremy Corbyn, because

:21:34.:21:37.

obviously it would dilute the grass roots members who look like they

:21:38.:21:40.

might put him back in to office, they would only have a third of the

:21:41.:21:44.

vote. It would be the trade unions who would have the other third and

:21:45.:21:48.

MPs and MEPs who would have the other third. The reason for the rush

:21:49.:21:52.

is to vote it in as the Conference, the national executive committee the

:21:53.:21:54.

Labour Party would have to say we think you should have a vote on it.

:21:55.:21:58.

There has been an election to the NEC, it's a move to the left but

:21:59.:22:02.

crucially the new members don't take up their voting positions until

:22:03.:22:05.

after the Conference, so perhaps you could sneak it in, really important

:22:06.:22:09.

point to make, the outgoing members of the NEC are highly sensitive.

:22:10.:22:13.

There has been an election, they would be wary of being part of a

:22:14.:22:15.

stitch up. The word "Greenland" probably didn't

:22:16.:22:18.

cross the lips of Cabinet members at Chequers when they were dreaming

:22:19.:22:21.

up their bespoke Brexit model, but the experience of the world's

:22:22.:22:23.

largest island, an autonomous territory of Denmark,

:22:24.:22:26.

might have lessons for the way the UK proceeds -

:22:27.:22:27.

even the relationships between Scotland, Northern Ireland

:22:28.:22:29.

and the rest of the United Kingdom. We sent our reporter,

:22:30.:22:32.

James Clayton, to learn Usually Greenland waters,

:22:33.:22:34.

most seals are usually Because it's easier

:22:35.:22:51.

for them to see the fish. They represent the country's

:22:52.:22:57.

latest battle with the EU, a journey that started

:22:58.:23:03.

four decades ago. In 1982, fed up of European

:23:04.:23:08.

fishing trawlers, Greenland chose to leave the EU -

:23:09.:23:10.

then the EEC. Just like that, the union lost

:23:11.:23:18.

almost half its territory. In the subsequent negotiations,

:23:19.:23:20.

Greenland has agreed to give EU In the subsequent negotiations,

:23:21.:23:28.

Greenlanders agreed to give EU limited fishing quotas

:23:29.:23:30.

in exchange for cash. That deal took three

:23:31.:23:32.

years to complete. This man was part of

:23:33.:23:34.

the negotiating team. While it was very difficult

:23:35.:23:40.

to the European Union and the Europeans to understand why

:23:41.:23:44.

we wanted to get out, and why we didn't want the money,

:23:45.:23:52.

but the fact is that there was no money, there was minimal investment

:23:53.:23:58.

in infrastructure, which we needed badly,

:23:59.:24:01.

so that is why we could see that there was no economic

:24:02.:24:09.

reason to stay. The deal has generally been seen

:24:10.:24:13.

as good for Greenlandic fishermen, Every time it comes

:24:14.:24:20.

up, shoot beside it. In 2010, the EU banned the sale

:24:21.:24:49.

of seal products within the union. There is an Inuit exception

:24:50.:24:55.

to the ban, but it has Mitzy owns a travel shop

:24:56.:24:57.

in Greenland's capital. So when the EU banned seal products,

:24:58.:25:07.

what happened to your business? They had been more slow to sell them

:25:08.:25:13.

to another place in Europe, Before the EU ban, how many seal

:25:14.:25:30.

skins were you selling? This man is an MP for the Democrats,

:25:31.:26:10.

the minority party in I definitely think it would have

:26:11.:26:13.

been easier, with more bargaining We would go, "You guys want fish

:26:14.:26:22.

more, we want to sell seal skins, That is still the argument

:26:23.:26:28.

we are making, but it is really difficult

:26:29.:26:31.

when you sit on the outside. It would be easy to sit

:26:32.:26:33.

on the inside at the table, and say "Hey guys, this is the deal,

:26:34.:26:36.

we are part of this too." Fortunately for the marine life,

:26:37.:26:40.

Lars was better at hitting The only thing he brought

:26:41.:26:42.

back in his boat was For other industries,

:26:43.:26:45.

Greenland's exit from the EU Nikolai has just started

:26:46.:26:48.

exporting beer to the EU. Like in Germany and so on,

:26:49.:27:06.

if we were a Danish company in Denmark, we would have to pay 25%

:27:07.:27:14.

on everything we buy But because we are outside the EU,

:27:15.:27:17.

we have the possibility, of deducting the 25%

:27:18.:27:27.

when we take it up here. if we were a member of the EU,

:27:28.:27:29.

it would be easier for paperwork and handling

:27:30.:27:35.

all the practical matters. Being a part of the kingdom

:27:36.:27:36.

still gives us certain advantages and it is easier to use Denmark

:27:37.:27:39.

as a stepping stone It is almost as easy to export

:27:40.:27:42.

to Denmark as if we When the goods are in Denmark,

:27:43.:27:49.

they are in the EU. The runway in the capital isn't long

:27:50.:27:53.

enough to land large aircraft and there are no interconnected

:27:54.:28:01.

roads in Greenland - this is as far as you can

:28:02.:28:05.

get in the capital. Some believe that Greenland's size,

:28:06.:28:09.

and more importantly its potential mineral wealth means if Greenland

:28:10.:28:15.

were in the EU it would be Basically, EU is a place that has

:28:16.:28:17.

a lot of money. They get a lot of money

:28:18.:28:22.

from the member states and they redistribute it,

:28:23.:28:24.

and we basically wanted the goods that would get more money back

:28:25.:28:29.

than we would get in. It should be a no-brainer,

:28:30.:28:36.

economically. We should get in there and get

:28:37.:28:38.

access to that big pot of money. It would be difficult to say that

:28:39.:28:41.

Greenland has thrived It is heavily subsidised by Denmark,

:28:42.:28:44.

alcoholism here is rife, and the country boasts

:28:45.:28:48.

the unenviable claim as the suicide Nicola Sturgeon has floated the idea

:28:49.:28:51.

of doing a reverse Greenland, with Scotland staying inside the EU,

:28:52.:28:59.

as the rest of Britain exits. Well, I was surprised

:29:00.:29:06.

by the opposite policies there, because you don't get the more

:29:07.:29:16.

independence joining European Union. But you might get independence

:29:17.:29:20.

from the UK. If that is the only case

:29:21.:29:24.

that the Scots have, then it is excellent,

:29:25.:29:27.

but going to European Union is actually giving your political

:29:28.:29:37.

freedom to someone. When asked, most people

:29:38.:29:40.

here are only vaguely conscious of the EU, but Greenland does offer

:29:41.:29:57.

the UK an imperfect template In many ways, it has

:29:58.:30:00.

benefitted from leaving, but it has also been left out

:30:01.:30:03.

in the cold when major policy decisions were being made

:30:04.:30:07.

about the future of one In this post-Brexit environment,

:30:08.:30:09.

every scrap of economic data is being poured over to see

:30:10.:30:18.

if we can get a sense of what impact our planned departure

:30:19.:30:21.

from the EU will have. Today, we had another

:30:22.:30:23.

important indicator. Our business editor,

:30:24.:30:25.

Helen Thomas, is here. Today, we had the PMI figures for

:30:26.:30:33.

manufacturing in August. They showed a sharp recovery from the month

:30:34.:30:37.

before. This is survey data. They ask firms about their levels of

:30:38.:30:40.

business activity, new business and so on. It's really widely followed.

:30:41.:30:47.

It had a sharp drop in July. Consistent with a potential

:30:48.:30:50.

recession. That was part of what prompted the Bank of England to take

:30:51.:30:52.

action, cutting interest rates and so on. This bounce back is really

:30:53.:30:58.

quite comforting. We've seen some quite good data from the consumer

:30:59.:31:01.

since the referendum on spending and confidence and so on. This now

:31:02.:31:05.

suggests that business hasn't fallen off the economic cliff as well. Now,

:31:06.:31:11.

the weaker pound is helping that boosted exports, makes our goods

:31:12.:31:15.

cheaper overseas. The psychological aspect is important. July, people

:31:16.:31:19.

were in shock. We had political turmoil. We didn't have a Prime

:31:20.:31:23.

Minister for part of the month. Now, this suggests that work may have

:31:24.:31:26.

been postponed, but we're getting back to business as usual. Does this

:31:27.:31:31.

suggest that we'd be giving any kind of recession a body swerve? Well, we

:31:32.:31:38.

can hope so, but I think it's too soon to make any judgment on that

:31:39.:31:43.

front. I mean, for a start, we are not in a post-Brexit environment so

:31:44.:31:47.

how business reacts when Article 50 is triggered when you have

:31:48.:31:50.

negotiations about our place in the world remains to be seen. Good data

:31:51.:31:54.

tends to mean the pound strengthens a bit. That helping hand starts to

:31:55.:31:59.

wane. Most importantly, this was manufacturing data. That hes a only

:32:00.:32:03.

10% of the economy. What we're really waiting for are construction

:32:04.:32:07.

numbers tomorrow and then services numbers tomorrow. Next week. If you

:32:08.:32:17.

see a rebound in services it feels like the post-vote shock factor

:32:18.:32:22.

lifted quickly. That would be good Helen, thanks very news. Much

:32:23.:32:23.

indeed. From now until the US presidential

:32:24.:32:30.

election on November 8th, we'll be hearing from the cream of American

:32:31.:32:33.

political commentators on the programme regularly as we tap

:32:34.:32:35.

into the expectations and anxieties We will make America great again!

:32:36.:32:38.

We'll fix it together! The day after Donald Trump made

:32:39.:32:55.

a big speech on immigration, we're joined by Ana Marie Cox,

:32:56.:32:57.

senior political correspondent for MTV News, who is in Minneapolis,

:32:58.:32:59.

and Josh Barro, a senior editor at Business Insider,

:33:00.:33:03.

who is speaking to us from New York. Good evening to both of you. We

:33:04.:33:11.

asked you both to pick your clips which kind of for you encapsulate

:33:12.:33:15.

the way this election is playing out. Ann Marie Cox let's see your

:33:16.:33:18.

clip fist. Have you even read the United

:33:19.:33:22.

States Constitution? Why did you choose that clip Well,

:33:23.:33:41.

there are a few instances. An clip of an immigrant family of colour.

:33:42.:33:46.

That has become a big issue in this election, both people of colour and

:33:47.:33:49.

white supremacy as well as immigration. Second of all, that

:33:50.:33:53.

clip shows how there has been a reversal of polls when it comes to

:33:54.:33:58.

which party is associated with being pro-America. Which party is being

:33:59.:34:04.

associated with patriotism and love of country and which party is

:34:05.:34:08.

considereded pro-military, for that matter. It's significant that the

:34:09.:34:13.

most emotionally resonate moments of the entire campaign has come not

:34:14.:34:17.

from someone involved in the campaign specifically. It didn't

:34:18.:34:20.

come from Hillary Clinton. One of the most powerful arguments for her

:34:21.:34:25.

presidency came from someone else besides her. Let's look at your

:34:26.:34:30.

clip, Josh. We didn't discuss payment

:34:31.:34:34.

of the wall, that'll They don't know it yet, but they're

:34:35.:34:36.

going to pay for the wall. Josh, why does that clip encans late

:34:37.:34:49.

what is going on for you? The second part was not from a later date, it

:34:50.:34:52.

was from several hours later on the same day. It reflects how Donald

:34:53.:34:56.

Trump has had this ideaed that he can, basically, change his mind and

:34:57.:34:59.

change his statements on any topic as quickly as he wants. Say whatever

:35:00.:35:02.

he thinks is best for the audiences that he is in front of and sell both

:35:03.:35:06.

of them on the idea that he's on their side. This has been a fixture

:35:07.:35:10.

of his business career going back 40 years. I think he has been learning

:35:11.:35:14.

in the reaction to his flip flop on the wall that we've seen this week

:35:15.:35:18.

is that people notice what he says in front of both those audiences and

:35:19.:35:23.

it's catching up with him. Looking at the way that certainly here the

:35:24.:35:27.

media tends in a way to look at Trump as a kind of cartoonish

:35:28.:35:32.

figure. As the campaign goes on, he has been cutting through albeit his

:35:33.:35:36.

approval ratings are dipping behind Hillary Clinton's, we have under

:35:37.:35:41.

estimated his power to get to feel, for people to feel enfranchised by

:35:42.:35:47.

him? Well, I think he was under estimated a year ago. I think now

:35:48.:35:52.

he's not under estimated. I think Clinton had the right formulation

:35:53.:35:54.

that, you know, you don't have to take him seriously, but the prospect

:35:55.:35:58.

of his presidency you have to take very seriously. Ann Marie, looking

:35:59.:36:02.

at these candidates, both candidates, in a sense this time

:36:03.:36:05.

round we don't have a hero candidate, if I might call Obama

:36:06.:36:09.

hero candidate, they are both flawed candidates. How does that change the

:36:10.:36:16.

way the campaign goes? Well, I think that both of our candidates are

:36:17.:36:21.

heroes to some people. There are a lot of women in the country who

:36:22.:36:26.

consider Hillary Clinton a hero. She will be the first female president.

:36:27.:36:30.

This is a campaign largely of of negatives. The two most unpopular

:36:31.:36:34.

candidates we have had. That is one of the reasons this race turned so

:36:35.:36:40.

nasty. Turned into arguments against the other candidate than any other

:36:41.:36:44.

race I can remember. I feel like, you know, I want to speak to the

:36:45.:36:48.

caricature of Trump whether he is a cartoon character. I think that's a

:36:49.:36:53.

danger for all us in the media he can seem ridiculous. I can't think

:36:54.:36:58.

of an election in my lifetime that has had... I choose that clip of Mr

:36:59.:37:05.

Khan I feel our constitution is under threat. Donald Trump poses a

:37:06.:37:09.

threat to American democracy, really. Actually, Josh, if you look

:37:10.:37:17.

at how, what he says goes with different communities, then, let us

:37:18.:37:21.

take something like the wall and the row it has developed today on

:37:22.:37:25.

Twitter between himself and the Mexican president and so forth. It

:37:26.:37:28.

seems to be a disconnect between what he is saying, what the Mexican

:37:29.:37:31.

president is saying, it doesn't seem to damage Donald Trump. He is very

:37:32.:37:35.

resilient? Well, I think it's because Donald Trump has never been

:37:36.:37:39.

about policy and the wall has never really been about the Wallace a

:37:40.:37:43.

physical structure as such. It's about being tough, standing up to

:37:44.:37:48.

these outside forces that trump and many of his voters blame for their

:37:49.:37:52.

troubles and what they perceive as the troubles of the United States. I

:37:53.:37:55.

thought that trip to Mexico went quite well for him. For whatever

:37:56.:37:59.

reason the Mexican president wases extremely gracious to him. Sought

:38:00.:38:04.

his presence in Mexico City. Only politely rebuked him for the fact he

:38:05.:38:10.

spent much of his campaign fillifying Mexico. He got what he

:38:11.:38:14.

wanted out of that, a demonstration of strength. His voters are not

:38:15.:38:19.

holding him accountable line byline, he said he will implement this

:38:20.:38:23.

policy. It isn't about policy he makes the right enemies for them.

:38:24.:38:26.

They perceive him as standing up for them. What is frustrating about

:38:27.:38:37.

covering this election as a urn Lists is how pointless it is. They

:38:38.:38:40.

have two different visions of what America ought to be and who has real

:38:41.:38:44.

claim over America. That hes a an important conversation. It tends to

:38:45.:38:50.

be a pretty stupid conversation. I wonder, looking at the ten Europe of

:38:51.:38:55.

Donald Trump's comments in Mexico and indeed the toning down and his

:38:56.:39:00.

new team and so forth. If we're going to see more toning down, as it

:39:01.:39:06.

were, in Trump's manner, in the next six weeks? I think your' going to

:39:07.:39:12.

continue to see this that Josh's clip pointed out. He will continue

:39:13.:39:16.

to try to do day time Trump and Trump after dark. I think he's going

:39:17.:39:23.

to try to talk out of both sides of his mouth. His ardent fans don't

:39:24.:39:30.

care he is doing this. As long as he sends the signal to them that will

:39:31.:39:33.

he is still the same person that they thought he was, I think that

:39:34.:39:37.

has to do, quite frankly, with a lot of bigotry. I think as long as he

:39:38.:39:42.

sends that signal he is still that person and still has those feelings,

:39:43.:39:46.

they are willing to let him do what he needs to do in order to win. To

:39:47.:39:50.

finish, on that question, I think Trump said as well he was the Brexit

:39:51.:39:56.

man. A lot of the establishment here, Mr Brexit he called himself, a

:39:57.:40:00.

lot of people in the establishment under estimated the vote to leave

:40:01.:40:04.

the EU. It might be the establishment in America, have

:40:05.:40:09.

underestimated his ability to turn out the vote on 8th November? I

:40:10.:40:15.

don't buy that comparison. I realise almost everybody expected the Brexit

:40:16.:40:19.

vote to lose. I expected it to lose. Half the polls had Leave ahead of

:40:20.:40:25.

Remain. They were ignoring polling evidence out there. In the United

:40:26.:40:28.

States nearly all the polling had Hillary Clinton ahead. Well North of

:40:29.:40:33.

90% of the polls conducted this year have her leading. Even now it's

:40:34.:40:37.

about her being ahead by four instead of eight. Presidential

:40:38.:40:40.

elections in the United States in recent decades do not go by enormous

:40:41.:40:46.

margins. Eight would be a blow out win. The biggest since 2004. A four

:40:47.:40:52.

point win would be a good within. People in the establishment have

:40:53.:40:54.

good reason to believe Hillary is ahead because she has been ahead

:40:55.:40:58.

through almost this entire thing. Thank you very much. We have the

:40:59.:40:59.

debates to come. When a flying pig named Algie

:41:00.:41:03.

materialised above the V Museum this week, it turned out that it

:41:04.:41:07.

heralded the announcement of a 50th Algie, you'll recall, first appeared

:41:08.:41:10.

on a 1977 album cover, before escaping and floating off

:41:11.:41:14.

to 30,000 feet, causing havoc Here he is back in his heydey,

:41:15.:41:16.

complete with the wrong music. # Remember when you were young

:41:17.:41:43.

# You shone like the sun # Shine on you crazy diamond...

:41:44.:41:45.

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